使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Hello, and welcome to today's Constellium Second Quarter 2023 Results Call. My name is Bailey, and I'll be the moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)
您好,歡迎參加今天的星座集團 2023 年第二季度業績電話會議。我叫貝利,我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 (操作員說明)
I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations. Jason, please go ahead.
現在我想將會議交給我們的東道主投資者關係總監傑森·赫希瑟 (Jason Hershiser)。傑森,請繼續。
Jason Hershiser - Director of IR
Jason Hershiser - Director of IR
Thank you, Bailey. I would like to welcome everyone to our second quarter 2023 earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Marc Germain; and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Clark.
謝謝你,貝利。我謹歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天的電話會議由我們的首席執行官 Jean-Marc Germain 主持。以及我們的首席財務官傑克·克拉克。
After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at constellium.com, and today's call is being recorded. Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings.
演講結束後,我們將進行問答環節。我們的網站 constellium.com 提供了今天電話會議的幻燈片演示文稿的副本,並且正在錄製今天的電話會議。在我們開始之前,我想鼓勵大家訪問該公司的網站並查看我們最近的文件。
Today's call may include forward-looking statements within resin the forward-looking statements, please refer to the factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20-F. All information in this presentation is as of the date of the entities includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation, which supplement our IFRS disclosures.
今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述,請參閱我們 20-F 表格年度報告中“風險因素”標題下列出的因素。本演示文稿中的所有信息均截至實體成立之日,包括有關某些非公認會計準則財務指標的信息。請參閱今天幻燈片演示中所附的非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表,它補充了我們的 IFRS 披露。
I would now like to hand the call over to Jean-Marc.
我現在想把電話轉給讓-馬克。
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Thank you, Jason. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium.
謝謝你,傑森。大家早上好,下午好,感謝您對星座的關注。
Let's begin on Slide 5 and discuss the highlights from our second quarter results. I would like to start with safety, our #1 priority. After a strong first quarter performance, our recordable case rate climbed in the second quarter, leading to a rate of 1.9 per million hours worked for the first half of the year. This is a humbling reminder that while we always strive to deliver best-in-class safety performance, we need to constantly maintain our focus on safety to achieve the ambitious targets we have set. It is a never-ending task for our company and one we take very seriously.
讓我們從幻燈片 5 開始討論第二季度業績的亮點。我想從安全開始,這是我們的第一要務。經過第一季度的強勁表現後,我們的可記錄案件率在第二季度攀升,導致上半年每百萬工作小時有 1.9 起案件發生率。這是一個令人謙卑的提醒,儘管我們始終努力提供一流的安全性能,但我們需要不斷保持對安全的關注,以實現我們設定的雄心勃勃的目標。對於我們公司來說,這是一項永無止境的任務,我們非常重視這一任務。
Turning to our financial results. Shipments were 398,000 tons, down 6% compared to the second quarter of 2022 due to lower shipments in P&ARP and AS&I. Revenue of EUR 2 billion decreased 14% compared to last year as improved price and mix was more than offset by lower shipments and lower metal prices.
轉向我們的財務業績。由於P&ARP和AS&I的出貨量減少,出貨量為39.8萬噸,較2022年第二季度下降6%。與去年相比,20 億歐元的收入下降了 14%,原因是價格和產品組合的改善被出貨量下降和金屬價格下降所抵消。
Remember, while our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass-through business model, which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our value-added revenue, which reflects our sales, excluding the cost of metal was EUR 785 million, up 11% compared to the same period last year. Our net income of EUR 32 million in the quarter compared to a net loss of EUR 32 million in the second quarter last year.
請記住,雖然我們的收入受到金屬價格變化的影響,但我們採用傳遞業務模式,從而最大限度地減少金屬價格風險。我們的增值收入(反映我們的銷售額,不包括金屬成本)為 7.85 億歐元,比去年同期增長 11%。我們本季度的淨利潤為 3200 萬歐元,而去年第二季度的淨虧損為 3200 萬歐元。
As you can see in the bridge on the top right, adjusted EBITDA of EUR 209 million in the quarter was up 5% compared to last year and is a new quarterly record for the company. A&T adjusted EBITDA is a new quarterly record as well and increased EUR 33 million compared to last year. P&ARP adjusted EBITDA decreased EUR 16 million and AS&I adjusted EBITDA decreased EUR 7 million in the quarter compared to last year.
正如您在右上角的橋樑中看到的那樣,本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.09 億歐元,比去年增長 5%,創下了公司的季度新紀錄。 A&T 調整後 EBITDA 也創下了季度新紀錄,與去年相比增加了 3300 萬歐元。與去年同期相比,本季度 P&ARP 調整後 EBITDA 減少 1600 萬歐元,AS&I 調整後 EBITDA 減少 700 萬歐元。
Looking across our end markets, aerospace demand remained very strong with shipments up 30% compared to last year. The recovery in Automotive continued with higher shipments in both rolled and extruded products versus last year. Packaging shipments were down in the quarter as demand remained below prior year levels, and we continue to experience weakness in most industrial markets. We continue to face significant inflationary pressures, which Jack will discuss in more detail. But thanks to our pricing power, contractual protections, improved mix and solid execution by our team, we are managing the current environment well.
縱觀我們的終端市場,航空航天需求仍然非常強勁,出貨量比去年增長了 30%。汽車行業繼續復甦,軋製和擠壓產品的出貨量均高於去年。由於需求仍低於去年水平,本季度包裝發貨量有所下降,而且大多數工業市場繼續疲軟。我們繼續面臨巨大的通脹壓力,傑克將對此進行更詳細的討論。但由於我們的定價能力、合同保護、改進的組合以及我們團隊的紮實執行,我們能夠很好地管理當前的環境。
Moving now to free cash flow. Our free cash flow in the quarter was strong at EUR 68 million. We remain committed to generating positive free cash flow and deleveraging. As you can see on the bottom right of the slide, our leverage at the end of the second quarter was 2.7x or down 0.3x from the end of the second quarter last year. Overall, I am very proud of our second quarter performance.
現在轉向自由現金流。本季度我們的自由現金流強勁,達到 6800 萬歐元。我們仍然致力於產生正的自由現金流和去槓桿化。正如您在幻燈片右下角看到的那樣,我們第二季度末的槓桿率為 2.7 倍,比去年第二季度末下降了 0.3 倍。總的來說,我對我們第二季度的表現感到非常自豪。
Looking forward, we like our end market positioning, and we are optimistic about our prospects for the remainder of this year and beyond. Based on our strong performance in the first half of this year and our current outlook for the second half, we are raising our guidance and expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of EUR 700 million to EUR 720 million and free cash flow in excess of EUR 150 million in 2023.
展望未來,我們喜歡我們的終端市場定位,並且對今年剩餘時間及以後的前景感到樂觀。基於我們今年上半年的強勁表現以及目前對下半年的展望,我們正在上調指導,預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 7 億至 7.2 億歐元之間,自由現金流將超過 150 歐元2023 年將達到100 萬。
Our outlook assumes no major deterioration in the macroeconomic or geopolitical fronts. We also remain confident in our ability to deliver our long-term target of adjusted EBITDA over EUR 800 million in 2025.
我們的前景假設宏觀經濟或地緣政治方面不會出現重大惡化。我們還對實現 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 超過 8 億歐元的長期目標的能力充滿信心。
Before I turn the call over to Jack, I wanted to comment quickly on our recently announced divestiture. Last week, we announced the sale of our soft alloy extrusion in Germany for a total cash consideration of EUR 48.8 million. The 3 plants specialize in soft alloy extruded products for the building and construction, transportation and industry markets in Europe. This transaction will allow us to further streamline our portfolio of strategic assets and strengthen our focus on our core end markets. We expect the transaction to close in the second half of this year.
在將電話轉給傑克之前,我想快速評論一下我們最近宣布的資產剝離。上週,我們宣佈出售在德國的軟合金擠壓件,現金總價為 4880 萬歐元。這 3 家工廠專門為歐洲的建築、運輸和工業市場生產軟合金擠壓產品。這項交易將使我們能夠進一步簡化我們的戰略資產組合,並加強我們對核心終端市場的關注。我們預計該交易將於今年下半年完成。
With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack for further detail on our financial performance. Jack?
現在,我將把電話轉給傑克,以獲取有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息。傑克?
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
Thank you, Jean-Marc, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. Please turn now to Slide 7. Value-added revenue was EUR 785 million in the second quarter, a new quarterly record for the company and up 11% compared to the same quarter last year.
謝謝讓-馬克,也謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。現在請翻到幻燈片 7。第二季度增值收入為 7.85 億歐元,創公司季度新紀錄,比去年同期增長 11%。
Looking at the second quarter, EUR 156 million of this increase was due to improved price and mix in each of our segments. Volume was a headwind of EUR 43 million due to lower shipments in P&ARP and AS&I. Metal impacts were a headwind of EUR 22 million compared to the same period last year. The balance of the change was largely due to unfavorable FX translation.
從第二季度來看,其中 1.56 億歐元的增長是由於我們每個細分市場的價格和組合的改善。由於 P&ARP 和 AS&I 的出貨量下降,銷量下降了 4,300 萬歐元。與去年同期相比,金屬影響減少了 2200 萬歐元。變化的平衡很大程度上是由於不利的外匯換算造成的。
There are 2 important takeaways from this slide. First, we grew our value-added revenue by 11% compared to last year. And second, we continue to have pricing power. Price and mix and price specifically is the biggest increment of our year-over-year variance and helped us offset inflationary pressures.
這張幻燈片有兩個重要要點。首先,我們的增值收入比去年增長了 11%。其次,我們繼續擁有定價權。價格、產品組合和價格是我們同比差異最大的增量,幫助我們抵消了通脹壓力。
Now turn to Slide 8. Let's focus on P&ARP segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 79 million decreased 17% compared to the second quarter last year. Volume was a headwind of EUR 13 million with higher shipments in automotive, more than offset by lower shipments in packaging and specialty rolled products. Automotive shipments increased 16% in the quarter versus last year as new platforms continue to ramp up and demand generally appeared stronger.
現在轉到幻燈片 8。讓我們關注 P&ARP 段性能。調整後 EBITDA 為 7900 萬歐元,與去年第二季度相比下降 17%。汽車領域出貨量增加,導致銷量逆勢增長 1,300 萬歐元,但被包裝和特種軋製產品出貨量下降所抵消。由於新平台不斷增加且需求普遍強勁,本季度汽車出貨量較去年增長 16%。
Packaging shipments decreased 12% across the supply chain in both North America and Europe and lower demand at the consumer level. Price and mix was a tailwind of EUR 52 million, primarily on improved contract pricing, including inflation-related passes. Costs were a headwind of EUR 53 million as a result of higher operating costs due to inflation, operating challenges at Muscle Shoals and unfavorable metal costs.
北美和歐洲整個供應鏈的包裝發貨量下降了 12%,消費者層面的需求也有所下降。價格和組合帶動了 5200 萬歐元的增長,主要是由於合同定價的改善,包括與通貨膨脹相關的通行證。由於通貨膨脹導致運營成本上升、馬斯爾淺灘的運營挑戰以及不利的金屬成本,成本出現了 5300 萬歐元的不利影響。
Now turn to Slide 9, and let's focus on the A&T segment. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 96 million increased 53% compared to the second quarter last year. Volume was stable as higher aerospace shipments offset lower TID shipments in the quarter. Aerospace shipments were up 30% versus last year as the recovery in aerospace markets continues. Shipments in TID were down 15% versus last year, reflecting a slowdown in most industrial markets, particularly in Europe, partially offset by strong demand in other markets like defense. Price and mix was a tailwind of EUR 68 million on improved contract pricing, including inflation-related pass-throughs and a stronger mix with more aerospace. Costs were a headwind of EUR 33 million as a result of higher operating costs, mainly due to inflation and continued ramp-up in activity levels.
現在轉到幻燈片 9,讓我們重點關注 A&T 部分。調整後 EBITDA 為 9600 萬歐元,與去年第二季度相比增長 53%。由於航空航天出貨量增加抵消了本季度 TID 出貨量的下降,銷量保持穩定。隨著航空航天市場持續復甦,航空航天出貨量比去年增長了 30%。 TID 的出貨量比去年下降了 15%,反映出大多數工業市場(尤其是歐洲)的放緩,但部分被國防等其他市場的強勁需求所抵消。由於合同定價的改善,包括與通貨膨脹相關的轉嫁以及與更多航空航天領域的更強大的組合,價格和組合帶來了 6800 萬歐元的推動力。由於通貨膨脹和活動水平持續上升,運營成本上升,導致成本增加 3,300 萬歐元。
Now let's turn to Slide 10 and focus on the AS&I segment. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 39 million decreased 15% compared to the second quarter last year. Volume was a EUR 9 million headwind with higher shipments in automotive more than offset by lower industry shipments. Automotive shipments increased 7% in the quarter versus last year as we continue to experience improvement in activity levels. Industry shipments were down 19% in the quarter versus last year as a result of weaker market conditions in Europe. Price and mix was a EUR 21 million tailwind, primarily due to improved contract pricing, including inflation-related pass-throughs. Costs were a headwind of EUR 19 million on higher operating costs, mainly due to inflation.
現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 10,重點關注 AS&I 部分。調整後 EBITDA 為 3900 萬歐元,與去年第二季度相比下降 15%。汽車行業出貨量的增加被行業出貨量的下降所抵消,銷量下降了 900 萬歐元。隨著我們的活動水平持續改善,本季度汽車出貨量比去年增長了 7%。由於歐洲市場狀況疲軟,本季度行業出貨量較去年下降 19%。價格和組合帶來了 2100 萬歐元的利好,這主要是由於合同定價的改善,包括與通脹相關的轉嫁。主要由於通貨膨脹導致運營成本上升,導致成本增加 1,900 萬歐元。
Now turn to Slide 11, where I want to give an update on the current inflationary environment we're facing and our focus on pricing and cost control to offset these pressures. In the second quarter, and as expected, we experienced broad-based and significant inflationary pressures across our business. As you know, we operate a pass-through business model but we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input. That said, other metal and alloy supply remains tight today and while we're confident about the security of supply, some of it does come at a higher cost.
現在轉到幻燈片 11,我想介紹一下我們當前面臨的通脹環境的最新情況,以及我們對定價和成本控制的關注,以抵消這些壓力。正如預期的那樣,第二季度我們的整個業務都經歷了廣泛且巨大的通脹壓力。如您所知,我們採用直通業務模式,但我們並未受到鋁市場價格變化的重大影響,而鋁是我們最大的成本投入。儘管如此,目前其他金屬和合金的供應仍然緊張,雖然我們對供應的安全充滿信心,但其中一些金屬和合金的成本確實較高。
In addition, labor and other nonmetal costs will also be higher this year, particularly European Energy. As previously noted, we purchased energy on a multiyear rolling forward basis, which has helped us to mitigate some of the energy cost pressures and helped us to smooth out some of the steep increases in costs. As a reminder, our 2023 energy costs are largely secured but at higher average prices. Both electricity and gas forward energy prices in Europe have come down from their 2022 peaks but still remain well above historical averages.
此外,今年勞動力和其他非金屬成本也將更高,尤其是歐洲能源成本。如前所述,我們在多年滾動的基礎上購買能源,這幫助我們減輕了一些能源成本壓力,並幫助我們緩解了一些成本的急劇增長。提醒一下,我們 2023 年的能源成本基本穩定,但平均價格較高。歐洲的電力和天然氣遠期能源價格均已較 2022 年的峰值有所回落,但仍遠高於歷史平均水平。
Given these cost pressures, we continue to work across a number of fronts to mitigate or impact our results. We have demonstrated strong cost performance in the past years, and we will continue our relentless focus in 2023, including continued execution on our previously announced Vision 25 initiatives. Across the company, we're working to increase our efficiency, reduce our consumption of expensive input and lower our fixed costs.
考慮到這些成本壓力,我們繼續在多個方面開展工作,以減輕或影響我們的業績。我們在過去幾年中展示了強大的性價比,我們將在 2023 年繼續不懈地關注,包括繼續執行我們之前宣布的 Vision 25 計劃。在整個公司,我們正在努力提高效率,減少昂貴投入的消耗並降低固定成本。
As we previously noted, many of our existing contracts have inflationary protection such as PPI inflators or surcharge mechanisms and where they do not, we're working with our customers to include them. We have made very good progress across all of our end markets. As you can see in the bridge on the right, in the first half of this year, we were very successful with price and mix, the largest increment being priced in offsetting inflationary pressures.
正如我們之前指出的,我們的許多現有合同都有通貨膨脹保護,例如 PPI 充氣機或附加費機制,如果沒有,我們正在與客戶合作將其納入其中。我們在所有終端市場都取得了非常好的進展。正如你在右邊的橋中看到的,今年上半年,我們在價格和組合方面非常成功,其中最大的增量是在抵消通脹壓力方面的定價。
As of today, we still expect inflationary pressures to remain significant, at least through the end of this year and at a comparable level to 2022. We continue to believe that we will be able to offset most of this cost pressure in 2023 and the rest in future periods with the combination of the tools we noted and our relentless focus on cost control. The net impact of inflation and other cost increases and the actions we're taking to offset them are included in our guidance for 2023.
截至今天,我們仍然預計通脹壓力仍然很大,至少到今年年底,並達到與 2022 年相當的水平。我們仍然相信,我們將能夠在 2023 年及其餘時間抵消大部分成本壓力在未來的時期,結合我們注意到的工具和我們對成本控制的不懈關注。通貨膨脹和其他成本增加的淨影響以及我們為抵消這些影響而採取的行動都包含在我們的 2023 年指導中。
Now let's turn to Slide 12 and discuss our free cash flow. We generated EUR 68 million of free cash flow in the second quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to EUR 34 million. As you can see on the bottom left of the slide, we have continued to deliver our commitment to generate consistent, strong free cash flow and enhance our financial flexibility.
現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 12,討論我們的自由現金流。第二季度我們產生了 6800 萬歐元的自由現金流,使年初至今的自由現金流總額達到 3400 萬歐元。正如您在幻燈片左下角所看到的,我們繼續履行我們的承諾,產生持續、強勁的自由現金流並增強我們的財務靈活性。
Looking at 2023, we now expect to generate free cash flow in excess of EUR 150 million for the full year. We expect CapEx to be between EUR 340 million and EUR 350 million cash interest of approximately EUR 120 million and cash taxes of approximately EUR 30 million, all in line with our previous guidance. Lastly, we now expect working capital to be a modest use of cash for the full year.
展望 2023 年,我們預計全年自由現金流將超過 1.5 億歐元。我們預計資本支出將在 3.4 億歐元至 3.5 億歐元之間,現金利息約為 1.2 億歐元,現金稅約為 3000 萬歐元,所有這些都符合我們之前的指導。最後,我們現在預計全年營運資金將適度使用現金。
Now let's turn to net debt of EUR 1.9 billion decreased slightly compared to the end of 2022, given the EUR 34 million of free cash flow generated in the first half and favorable noncash FX translation of EUR 21 million with the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Our leverage reached a multiyear low of 2.7x at the end of the second quarter were down 0.3x versus the end of the second quarter last year. We remain committed to achieving our leverage target of 2.5x and maintaining our long-term target leverage range of 1.5x to 2.5x.
現在讓我們來看看與2022 年底相比,淨債務為19 億歐元,相比2022 年底略有下降,原因是上半年產生了3400 萬歐元的自由現金流,並且隨著美元疲軟,有利的非現金外匯換算為2100 萬歐元。我們的槓桿率在第二季度末達到了多年來的最低點 2.7 倍,比去年第二季度末下降了 0.3 倍。我們仍然致力於實現 2.5 倍的槓桿目標,並維持 1.5 倍至 2.5 倍的長期目標槓桿範圍。
As you can see in our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2026, and our liquidity remained strong at EUR 752 million as of the end of the second quarter. Last week, we completed the redemption of $50 million of our 5.875% U.S. dollar bonds due in 2026, further strengthening our balance sheet. We're very proud of the progress we have made on our capital structure and of the financial flexibility we're building.
正如您在我們的債務摘要中看到的,我們在 2026 年之前沒有債券到期,截至第二季度末,我們的流動性仍然強勁,為 7.52 億歐元。上週,我們完成了 5000 萬美元 2026 年到期、利率為 5.875% 的美元債券的贖回,進一步強化了我們的資產負債表。我們對我們在資本結構和正在建立的財務靈活性方面取得的進展感到非常自豪。
I will now hand the call back to Jean-Marc.
現在我將把電話交還給讓-馬克。
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Thank you, Jack. Let's turn to Slide 15 and discuss our current end market outlook. The majority of our portfolio today is serving end markets currently benefiting from durable sustainability-driven secular growth. The important takeaway here is that aluminum is a catalyst behind this secular growth, given its sustainable attributes. Aluminum is infinitely recyclable and does not lose its properties when recycled. As a result, aluminum will play a critical role in the circular economy and will be a driver of growth in lightweighting, electrification and sustainable packaging.
謝謝你,傑克。讓我們轉向幻燈片 15,討論我們當前的終端市場前景。今天,我們的大部分投資組合正在服務於目前受益於持久可持續發展驅動的長期增長的終端市場。這裡重要的一點是,鑑於鋁的可持續屬性,它是這種長期增長背後的催化劑。鋁可無限回收,回收後不會失去其特性。因此,鋁將在循環經濟中發揮關鍵作用,並將成為輕量化、電氣化和可持續包裝增長的驅動力。
So turning first to packaging. During the quarter, the inventory adjustments continued across the supply chain in both North America and Europe. We are also seeing demand weakness in both regions as a result of the current inflationary environment, the lack of promotional activity and following a multiyear period of rapid growth during COVID. Even in today's environment, where we are seeing weaker demand in packaging markets, aluminum cans continue to outperform other substrates like plastic and glass. We are confident in the long-term outlook for this end market, though, given capacity growth plans from can makers in both regions, the greenfield investments ongoing here in North America and a growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can.
所以首先轉向包裝。本季度,北美和歐洲整個供應鏈的庫存調整仍在繼續。由於當前的通脹環境、缺乏促銷活動以及新冠疫情期間的多年快速增長,我們還發現這兩個地區的需求疲軟。即使在當今包裝市場需求疲軟的環境下,鋁罐的表現仍然優於塑料和玻璃等其他基材。不過,考慮到這兩個地區的罐頭製造商的產能增長計劃、北美正在進行的綠地投資以及消費者對可持續鋁製飲料罐日益增長的偏好,我們對該終端市場的長期前景充滿信心。
Longer term, we expect packaging markets to grow low to mid-single digits in both North America and Europe. We will participate in this growth in both regions as we announced at our Analyst Day last year. The company remains highly focused on stabilizing the operating challenges we have been experiencing at Muscle Shoals, so that we can take advantage of these end market dynamics here in North America. We're encouraged by the improved performance we have seen recently at Muscle Shoals and remain confident in our ability to restore the plant's profitability over the course of 2023.
從長遠來看,我們預計北美和歐洲的包裝市場將以低至中個位數增長。正如我們在去年分析師日宣布的那樣,我們將參與這兩個地區的增長。該公司仍然高度專注於穩定我們在馬斯爾肖爾斯經歷的運營挑戰,以便我們能夠利用北美的這些終端市場動態。最近馬斯爾肖爾斯工廠業績的改善令我們深受鼓舞,並對我們在 2023 年恢復工廠盈利能力的能力充滿信心。
Turning now to automotive. OEM sales and production numbers globally have increased the last several quarters, but remain well below pre-COVID levels. Automotive inventories are low, consumer demand remains high and vehicle electrification and sustainability trends will complicate and increased demand in both rolled and extruded products give us reason for optimism.
現在轉向汽車。過去幾個季度,全球 OEM 銷量和產量有所增加,但仍遠低於新冠疫情前的水平。汽車庫存較低,消費者需求仍然很高,汽車電氣化和可持續發展趨勢將使情況變得複雜,軋製和擠壓產品需求的增加使我們有理由感到樂觀。
Let's turn now to aerospace. The recovery in aerospace continued in the quarter, with shipments up 30% versus last year, though still well below pre-COVID levels. Major OEMs have announced build rate increases in the short term and the desire for further increases in the medium term. We remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. In addition, demand is strong in the business and regional jet market and the defense and space market.
現在讓我們轉向航空航天。本季度航空航天業繼續復甦,出貨量較去年增長 30%,但仍遠低於新冠疫情前的水平。主要原始設備製造商已宣佈在短期內提高建造速度,並希望在中期進一步提高建造速度。我們仍然相信,推動航空航天需求的長期基本面保持不變,包括客運量的增長以及對新型、更省油的飛機的更大需求。此外,公務機和支線飛機市場以及國防和航天市場的需求也很強勁。
As the chart on the left side of this page highlights, these 3 core end markets represent 77% of our last 12 months revenue. We like the fundamentals in each. And as I have said in the past, we like our hand and the options it affords us.
正如本頁左側的圖表所示,這 3 個核心終端市場占我們過去 12 個月收入的 77%。我們喜歡每個方面的基礎知識。正如我過去所說,我們喜歡我們的牌以及它為我們提供的選擇。
Turning lastly to specialties. We expect weakness to continue in most industrial markets. And in general, these markets are dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region. Overall, demand has been more stable in North America than in Europe. In TID rolled products, demand remains strong in markets like defense and in transportation in North America. In industry extrusions, while demand is strong in some sectors like solar, demand remains weak in most other markets. It is also of note that many of the sustainability trends supporting growth in our core markets are very much at play here in other specialties as well.
最後談談專業。我們預計大多數工業市場將繼續疲軟。總的來說,這些市場取決於每個地區工業經濟的健康狀況。總體而言,北美的需求比歐洲更加穩定。對於 TID 軋製產品,北美國防和運輸等市場的需求依然強勁。在行業擠壓中,雖然太陽能等某些行業的需求強勁,但大多數其他市場的需求仍然疲軟。還值得注意的是,支持我們核心市場增長的許多可持續發展趨勢在其他專業領域也發揮著重要作用。
Constellium is well positioned today with our diverse and balanced portfolio to capture the secular growth fueled by sustainability. In summary, we continue to like the prospects for the end markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company. Turning to Slide 16, we detail our key messages and financial guidance. Constellium delivered strong performance in the first half of the year. I am very proud of our entire team as they achieved solid operational performance and strong cost control despite a number of challenges, including significant inflationary pressures.
如今,肯聯集團憑藉多元化、均衡的投資組合,處於有利地位,能夠抓住可持續發展推動的長期增長。總之,我們仍然看好我們所服務的終端市場的前景,並且我們堅信終端市場的多元化是公司的一項資產。轉向幻燈片 16,我們詳細介紹了我們的關鍵信息和財務指導。星座集團上半年表現強勁。我為我們的整個團隊感到非常自豪,儘管面臨包括巨大的通脹壓力在內的許多挑戰,他們仍實現了穩健的運營績效和強有力的成本控制。
Looking forward, 2023 continues to be a challenging year, given the extraordinary inflationary pressures we are facing and the demand weakness in some of our end markets like packaging and other specialties. As Jack noted, we are still expecting significant inflationary pressures in 2023, but we remain confident in our ability to pass through most of these costs in 2023 and the rest in future periods.
展望未來,考慮到我們面臨的巨大通脹壓力以及包裝和其他專業產品等一些終端市場的需求疲軟,2023 年仍然是充滿挑戰的一年。正如傑克指出的那樣,我們仍然預計 2023 年將出現巨大的通脹壓力,但我們仍然對我們在 2023 年以及未來時期承擔大部分成本的能力充滿信心。
Based on our strong performance in the first half of this year and on our current outlook for the second half, we are raising our guidance and expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of EUR 700 million to EUR 720 million and free cash flow in excess of EUR 150 million in 2023. As a reminder, our outlook assumes no major deterioration on the macroeconomic or geopolitical front.
基於我們今年上半年的強勁表現以及目前對下半年的展望,我們正在上調指導,預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 7 億至 7.2 億歐元之間,自由現金流將超過歐元2023 年將達到1.5 億。提醒一下,我們的前景假設宏觀經濟或地緣政治方面不會出現重大惡化。
I also want to reiterate our long-term guidance of adjusted EBITDA in excess of EUR 800 million by 2025 and our target leverage range of 1.5 to 2.5x. And let me add, this guidance is based on our current energy positions, including higher forward energy prices as of today.
我還想重申我們的長期指導,即到 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 超過 8 億歐元,我們的目標槓桿範圍為 1.5 至 2.5 倍。讓我補充一下,這一指導是基於我們當前的能源狀況,包括截至今天更高的遠期能源價格。
As inflationary pressures subside, we believe we will emerge an even stronger company. Our business model provides a strong foundation for long-term success, and we believe we have substantial opportunities to grow our business and enhance profitability and returns. We have a diversified portfolio and our end market positioning will enable us to take advantage of sustainability-driven secular growth trends, such as consumer preference for infinitely recyclable aluminum cans, lightweighting in transportation, the electrification of the automotive fleet and the increased focus on recycling.
隨著通脹壓力消退,我們相信我們將成為一家更加強大的公司。我們的商業模式為長期成功奠定了堅實的基礎,我們相信我們有大量機會來發展我們的業務並提高盈利能力和回報。我們擁有多元化的產品組合,我們的終端市場定位將使我們能夠利用可持續發展驅動的長期增長趨勢,例如消費者對可無限回收的鋁罐的偏好、交通運輸的輕量化、汽車車隊的電氣化以及對回收的日益關注。
The Constellium team has demonstrated its resilience and ability to execute across a range of different market conditions, and I am confident we will continue to do so. We remain focused on executing our strategy, driving operational performance, generating free cash flow, achieving our ESG objectives and shareholder value creation. In conclusion, I remain very optimistic about our future.
星座團隊已經展示了其在各種不同市場條件下的韌性和執行能力,我相信我們將繼續這樣做。我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略、推動運營績效、產生自由現金流、實現我們的 ESG 目標和創造股東價值。總之,我對我們的未來仍然非常樂觀。
Lastly, and it is not on the slide here, but before we open it up for Q&A, I wanted to congratulate Ingrid Joerg. I'm very pleased to announce that I have appointed Ingrid to Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. This new and exciting role will allow us to continue to strengthen our organizational structure and focus and develop our people.
最後,它不在此處的幻燈片上,但在我們打開它進行問答之前,我想祝賀 Ingrid Joerg。我非常高興地宣布,我已任命 Ingrid 為執行副總裁兼首席運營官。這一令人興奮的新角色將使我們能夠繼續加強我們的組織結構,並重點關注和發展我們的員工。
In our new role, Ingrid will continue to work closely with me in the coming years to drive further value creation for the company. Ingrid will operationally had Constellium's 3 business units, driving sustainable growth, operational efficiencies and world-class safety performance. Ingrid that served very successfully, as you can see, as the President of Constellium's NT Business Unit since June 2015.
在我們的新職位上,英格麗德將在未來幾年繼續與我密切合作,推動公司進一步創造價值。 Ingrid 將運營 Constellium 的 3 個業務部門,推動可持續增長、運營效率和世界一流的安全績效。如您所見,Ingrid 自 2015 年 6 月起擔任 Constellium NT 業務部門總裁,非常成功。
With that, operator, we will now open the Q&A session.
接線員,我們現在將開始問答環節。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions)
謝謝。 (操作員說明)
Our first question today comes from the line of Katja Jancic from BMO.
我們今天的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Katja Jancic。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Margin in the A&T segment remains very strong. Previously, you said through the cycle margin in that business should be somewhere between EUR 800 to EUR 900 per ton. Is it still -- does that still hold or have margins structurally increased?
A&T 領域的利潤率仍然非常強勁。此前,您說過該業務的周期利潤應該在每噸 800 至 900 歐元之間。仍然如此嗎?還是結構性地增加了利潤率?
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
So A&T you're right, in the first quarter, we mentioned a margin -- a cycle average margin of EUR 800 to EUR 900 per ton and it will stay high in this up cycle environment. So that's certainly what we saw in the second quarter with better price and mix and with more aerospace has having a higher margin compared to the TID business, but also in the second quarter, we have a better mix within our aerospace product portfolio towards some of the more technically demanding product, which obviously hold a premium.
所以 A&T 你是對的,在第一季度,我們提到了利潤率——每噸 800 至 900 歐元的周期平均利潤率,在這個上升週期環境中它將保持在高位。因此,這肯定是我們在第二季度看到的,與TID 業務相比,價格和組合更好,更多航空航天業務的利潤率更高,而且在第二季度,我們的航空航天產品組合針對某些領域有了更好的組合。技術要求更高的產品,顯然具有溢價。
So the business also had solid cost control in the second quarter relative to the increased levels of activity. With 2 quarters in, we believe we can maintain attractive margin for this business, certainly for this year, and that provides some upside for margin throughout a cycle. So our view today is there's EUR 100 per ton upside to the EUR 800 to EUR 900 per ton guidance we gave to you last quarter.
因此,相對於活動水平的增加,該公司在第二季度也實現了穩健的成本控制。兩個季度過去了,我們相信我們可以保持這項業務具有吸引力的利潤率,尤其是今年,這為整個週期的利潤率提供了一些上行空間。因此,我們今天的觀點是,與我們上季度向您提供的每噸 800 至 900 歐元的指導相比,每噸有 100 歐元的上漲空間。
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
So yes, we think structurally, margins are at around EUR 1,000 per ton.
所以,是的,我們認為從結構上看,利潤率約為每噸 1,000 歐元。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
And in the second half of the in the second half of the year, should we see some easing, I'm assuming in margins?
我假設在下半年,我們是否應該看到利潤率有所放鬆?
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
There could be some easing just given the seasonality of the business and the cost is continuing to catch up in this business unit. But we're optimistic about the margin profile for this business.
考慮到業務的季節性,並且該業務部門的成本繼續趕上,可能會有一些寬鬆。但我們對這項業務的利潤率持樂觀態度。
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
But this year, we'll be over the average of the cycle. (inaudible).
但今年,我們將超過週期的平均水平。 (聽不清)。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Now your leverage is approaching your target. Can you remind us, once you reach that target, how you're going to be thinking about the capital allocation?
現在您的槓桿正在接近您的目標。您能否提醒我們,一旦達到該目標,您將如何考慮資本配置?
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
Yes. So look, I mean, our overall objective is to increase our financial flexibility because that will kind of help open up capital deployment options that allow us to maintain a balanced, I would say, a balanced capital allocation policy. So as we reach our leverage target, it certainly opens up our options, including returning cash to shareholders.
是的。所以,我的意思是,我們的總體目標是提高我們的財務靈活性,因為這將有助於開闢資本配置選擇,使我們能夠保持平衡,我想說,平衡的資本配置政策。因此,當我們達到槓桿目標時,這肯定會為我們提供選擇,包括向股東返還現金。
Operator
Operator
Our next question today comes from the line of Bill Peterson from JPMorgan.
今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾·彼得森。
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
It's great to see the upward guidance provisions. What has changed since the prior outlook that gives you confidence in the revisions? And I guess given the higher free cash flow guidance, can we expect accelerated debt pay-down from here?
很高興看到向上指導的規定。自上次展望以來發生了什麼變化讓您對修訂充滿信心?我想,考慮到更高的自由現金流指引,我們可以期望從這裡開始加速債務償還嗎?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
So Bill, I'll get started and Jack will help me. So the visibility has improved as the year progresses. That's number one. We are extremely pleased with our performance in Aerospace. And as we mentioned in a response to Katja's question, it's not a flash in the pan. We believe there is much more room to grow. And we -- that's why we're raising also our expected average margin for this segment. And we're seeing a very good mix within Aerospace, where, as you saw, customers like us, we get some fantastic awards as best suppliers from them, and that means more business for us. So very strong fundamentals overall in aerospace and even better for us as the supplier as a preferred supplier to our customers. So that's definitely strong contributor to the increased guidance.
比爾,我會開始,傑克會幫助我。因此,隨著時間的推移,可見度有所提高。這是第一。我們對我們在航空航天領域的表現非常滿意。正如我們在回答 Katja 問題時提到的,這並不是曇花一現。我們相信還有更大的增長空間。這就是為什麼我們還提高了該細分市場的預期平均利潤率。我們在航空航天領域看到了非常好的組合,正如您所看到的,像我們這樣的客戶,我們從他們那裡獲得了一些作為最佳供應商的出色獎項,這對我們來說意味著更多的業務。因此,航空航天領域的整體基礎非常強大,對於我們作為供應商作為客戶的首選供應商來說甚至更好。因此,這絕對是增加指導的重要貢獻者。
In packaging, the first half was rough with demand being down. We expect the second half to be less rough, and that's based on our order book and what we're seeing. So by contrast, H1 of '22 to H1 of 23, that was difficult. We expect H2 to H2 to be much better in terms of comparison. Still not where we like it to be in the long run, but making some progress. And automotive, as you saw, continues to be strong for us. It's a very good year. I think we're seeing both the strength in the underlying market, but also the continued penetration of aluminum and automotive.
在包裝方面,上半年形勢嚴峻,需求下降。我們預計下半年不會那麼艱難,這是基於我們的訂單和我們所看到的情況。相比之下,22 年的 H1 到 23 年的 H1 就很困難。我們預計 H2 到 H2 相比而言會更好。從長遠來看,仍然不是我們希望的那樣,但已經取得了一些進展。正如您所見,汽車行業對我們來說仍然很強大。這是非常好的一年。我認為我們不僅看到了基礎市場的實力,也看到了鋁和汽車的持續滲透。
So all these are giving us good reasons for the increased guidance. Now at the same time, it is striking to see that our specialty segment are suffering from a quasi or completely recessionary environment, inflation continues to be strong and eating into our cost base. We're extremely pleased with the outlook we're giving and sharing with you today because there are still quite a few headwinds that we are faced with. And despite this, we're increasing our guidance.
因此,所有這些都為我們提供了增加指導的充分理由。與此同時,令人震驚的是我們的專業部門正遭受准或完全衰退的環境,通貨膨脹持續強勁並侵蝕我們的成本基礎。我們對今天向您提供並與您分享的前景感到非常滿意,因為我們仍然面臨著相當多的阻力。儘管如此,我們仍在增加我們的指導。
So yes, the increased guidance translates into -- on the EBITDA side translates into more cash flow that gives us more flexibility. And I don't know if, Jack, do you want to add anything to my comments. I think that's good. And as you saw, we like to pay down some debt, so we'll see what we do in the future.
所以,是的,增加的指導轉化為 - 在 EBITDA 方面轉化為更多的現金流,為我們提供了更大的靈活性。傑克,我不知道你是否想在我的評論中添加任何內容。我認為這很好。正如你所看到的,我們喜歡償還一些債務,所以我們會看看未來會做什麼。
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
And I guess you kind of mentioned some of the issues around inflation. And I know it's -- I know a lot of the mitigation efforts and inflations captured in your full year EBITDA to you. But I guess, if we think about some of the bigger items you mentioned, like energy or metals there's still, I guess, inflationary pressure at some of the sites. But I guess what specifically is the team doing to mitigate these? And I guess can you provide an initial view on how to think about these cost headwinds as we move into next year?
我想你提到了一些有關通貨膨脹的問題。我知道,我知道你們全年 EBITDA 中所採取的很多緩解措施和通貨膨脹措施。但我想,如果我們考慮一下您提到的一些較大的項目,例如能源或金屬,我想某些地點仍然存在通脹壓力。但我猜團隊具體做了什麼來緩解這些問題?我想您能否就我們進入明年時如何考慮這些成本阻力提供初步看法?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
So on energy, we think we have crested -- and actually, at the moment, given our hedge positions, we are paying a bit higher than paying higher than the spot prices will be on average. So as those hedges roll off and hopefully, the spot prices continue to be what happens in the future, we should see a decrease in energy cost. I'm hopeful that's what happens. But anyway, that's what we're expecting going into next year.
因此,在能源方面,我們認為我們已經達到頂峰 - 事實上,目前,考慮到我們的對沖頭寸,我們支付的價格略高於平均現貨價格。因此,隨著這些對沖的結束,希望現貨價格在未來繼續發生這種情況,我們應該會看到能源成本下降。我希望事情就是這樣。但無論如何,這就是我們對明年的預期。
On metals, I think we're seeing an inflation subside, but they are still much higher. I mean magnesium is multiple times more expensive today than it was back in 2020 or 2019, right, pre-pandemic. So it is these elevated costs to continue. So in terms of mitigation measures, and I could go on and on about different pockets of costs that are going up with inflation, we will live that in our business and consumer life, I would say.
就金屬而言,我認為我們看到通脹正在消退,但通脹率仍然高得多。我的意思是,今天的鎂比 2020 年或 2019 年(即大流行前)貴了好幾倍。因此,這些高昂的成本將繼續下去。因此,就緩解措施而言,我可以繼續討論隨著通貨膨脹而上升的不同成本,我想說,我們將在我們的商業和消費者生活中實現這一點。
So in terms of mitigation measures, the first one is making sure we are getting paid by our customers for the reality of the new costs that we are faced with. And as I said, there's been a fantastic job done by the teams to reflect the increased cost into our pricing, but there is a lag to that. So you haven't seen yet the full impact of the price increases.
因此,就緩解措施而言,第一個是確保我們的客戶為我們面臨的新成本的現實支付費用。正如我所說,團隊做得非常出色,將增加的成本反映到我們的定價中,但存在滯後。所以你還沒有看到價格上漲的全部影響。
The second item is we've got to be much more economical in our use of resources, which is a good thing, actually. So it's forcing us to put on the front burner questions like how do we save energy, how do we better operate our plans, how do we improve our recovery so that every cost item, every use of resource is minimized. And that's a lot of work grinding through every opportunity to minimize the use of resources within the plants.
第二點是我們必須更加經濟地使用資源,這實際上是一件好事。因此,這迫使我們把問題擺在首要位置,例如如何節省能源、如何更好地實施我們的計劃、如何提高回收率,從而最大限度地減少每項成本、每項資源的使用。這是一項艱鉅的工作,要抓住一切機會最大限度地減少工廠內資源的使用。
And then the third aspect is more strategic and longer run is we have to go and continue on our path towards more value-added products. And a big element of that is making sure we have the right product mix that we focus on those products that have better margins that are more constructive in the long term so that the value of what we're making is more recognized in the market. And that's one of the reasons why we commented -- we announced the sale of the 3 extrusion plants in Germany that were focused on lower-margin products. We thought this is the kind of market where it may be a little bit more difficult in the future to face increased cost base, and we found a buyer that use them as a strategic asset.
第三個方面更具戰略性和長遠性,我們必須繼續走更多增值產品的道路。其中一個重要因素是確保我們擁有正確的產品組合,我們專注於那些利潤更高、從長遠來看更具建設性的產品,以便我們所生產的產品的價值在市場上得到更多認可。這就是我們發表評論的原因之一——我們宣佈出售位於德國的 3 家擠壓工廠,這些工廠專注於低利潤產品。我們認為,在這種市場中,未來面臨成本基礎增加可能會更加困難,並且我們找到了將它們用作戰略資產的買家。
Well, the by founders actually, we were not auctioning off these assets. And that's part of the steps we take to continually make sure we've got the right cost base and we participate in the right markets.
嗯,實際上,對於創始人來說,我們並沒有拍賣這些資產。這是我們為不斷確保我們擁有正確的成本基礎並參與正確的市場而採取的步驟的一部分。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Curt Woodworth from Credit Suisse.
今天的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Curt Woodworth。
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst
I wanted to comment on the sort of A&T -- the A&T margin profile maybe a little bit differently. I mean as you think about going forward the next couple of quarters and next year, aerospace clearly is going to grow much faster than TID. So I would think that your mix all else equal would be improving your fixed cost absorption would be improving? And then at some point, I would think given some of the increases potentially on the wide-body side of the market that would also be accretive to mix. So is that a fair characterization, I think that your mix within that segment should be improving? And then I know (inaudible) some of the extremely high margin products you do can create a lot of quarter-to-quarter volatility. So was there anything that was kind of extremely unique in this quarter that you could call out that, say, wouldn't repeat next quarter?
我想評論一下 A&T 的情況——A&T 的利潤狀況可能有點不同。我的意思是,當你考慮未來幾個季度和明年的發展時,航空航天業的增長速度顯然將比 TID 快得多。所以我認為你的組合在其他條件相同的情況下會改善你的固定成本吸收會改善嗎?然後在某個時候,我認為考慮到寬體機市場方面的一些潛在增長,這也將促進混合。那麼,這是一個公平的描述嗎?我認為您在該細分市場中的組合應該有所改善?然後我知道(聽不清)你做的一些利潤率極高的產品可能會造成很大的季度波動。那麼,本季度有沒有什麼非常獨特的事情,你可以指出,比如說,下個季度不會重複的事情?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Yes. So you're right that on a broad base, the more aerospace we do in the mix compared to TID, that will drive up the average margin because the aerospace margins are higher than TID. And on a go-forward basis, we're seeing the aerospace recovery strengthening and strengthening, that's going to come into play.
是的。所以你說得對,在廣泛的基礎上,與 TID 相比,我們在混合中從事的航空航天業務越多,這將推高平均利潤率,因為航空航天業務的利潤率高於 TID。展望未來,我們看到航空航天業的複蘇不斷加強,這將發揮作用。
It's true that we've got some -- within Aerospace, there is also a micro mix, so to say, with some products that are extremely profitable. But remember, they required quite significant investments in the past. So it's fair that they are much more profitable. And we've had strong demand in space, in defense and the higher end of the products. We expect that to continue, but yes, there can be some fluctuation. So overall, I think Jack mentioned earlier, we're expecting for this year, margins in the A&T segment, that continues to be above the revised long-term average that we mentioned, above the EUR 1,000 per ton, but they may come off a little bit from what we've seen in Q1 and Q2, which are seasonally strong quarters.
確實,我們有一些——在航空航天領域,也有一個微觀組合,可以說,有些產品利潤極高。但請記住,他們過去需要相當大的投資。所以他們的利潤更高是公平的。我們在太空、國防和高端產品方面有著強勁的需求。我們預計這種情況會持續下去,但確實,可能會出現一些波動。因此,總的來說,我認為傑克之前提到過,我們預計今年 A&T 領域的利潤率將繼續高於我們提到的修訂後的長期平均水平,高於每噸 1,000 歐元,但它們可能會下降從我們在第一季度和第二季度看到的情況來看,這兩個季度是季節性強勁的季度。
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
Yes, Curt, I would just add, I agree with everything as Jean-Marc mentioned. And certainly, more aerospace will be helpful contributed from a margin perspective. But remember, the TID business is down this year in the first half compared to the first half -- sorry, first half of this year versus the first half of last year, right, down somewhere around 15%. So as that part of the A&T business rebounds recovers, that will eat into the margin as well.
是的,柯特,我想補充一點,我同意讓-馬克提到的一切。當然,從利潤角度來看,更多的航空航天將會有所幫助。但請記住,今年上半年的 TID 業務與上半年相比有所下降——對不起,今年上半年與去年上半年相比,對吧,下降了 15% 左右。因此,隨著這部分 A&T 業務的反彈,這也將侵蝕利潤率。
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst
Yes, Curt, I would just add, I agree with everything as Jean-Marc mentioned. And certainly, more aerospace will be helpful contributed from a margin perspective. But remember, the TID business is down this year in the first half compared to the first half -- sorry, first half of this year versus the first half of last year, right, down somewhere around 15%. So as that part of the A&T business rebounds recovers, that will eat into the margin as well.
是的,柯特,我想補充一點,我同意讓-馬克提到的一切。當然,從利潤角度來看,更多的航空航天將會有所幫助。但請記住,今年上半年的 TID 業務與上半年相比有所下降——對不起,今年上半年與去年上半年相比,對吧,下降了 15% 左右。因此,隨著這部分 A&T 業務的反彈,這也將侵蝕利潤率。
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Yes. So in the short term, we are seeing some signs of improvement in packaging, pointing towards end of destocking. So that's why we're saying the comp will be -- we expect the comp to be better going into H2 than it was in H1. With regards to the 200,000 tons of additional capacity that we highlighted at the Analyst Day back in April of '22. Remember, it's a 26 really increase, right, by the end of '25, that should be the increase we have in capacity. Given the fact that the market has taken a step back, maybe it's going to be a little bit more gradual. And we always want to maintain flexibility in our capital allocation so that we can accelerate some projects or slow down some projects and within the same envelope of capital expenditures that we have mentioned.
是的。因此,短期內,我們看到包裝方面出現了一些改善的跡象,表明去庫存即將結束。所以這就是為什麼我們說比賽將會是——我們預計下半年的比賽會比上半年更好。關於我們在 2022 年 4 月分析師日強調的 20 萬噸新增產能。請記住,到 25 年底,這實際上是 26 的增長,這應該是我們產能的增長。考慮到市場已經後退了一步,也許它會更加漸進一些。我們始終希望保持資本配置的靈活性,以便我們可以在我們提到的相同資本支出範圍內加速某些項目或減緩某些項目。
So we'll have to see how it goes. There is no fundamental reason not meet that 200,000 tons of extra capacity. It may come a little bit more slowly than what we initially thought, but that's because the market may not need it as quickly, and we've got other opportunities elsewhere. But we're really talking about tweaking the edges there. The fundamentals are not changing.
所以我們得看看事情進展如何。沒有根本原因不能滿足20萬噸的額外產能。它可能比我們最初想像的要慢一點,但那是因為市場可能不需要那麼快,而且我們在其他地方還有其他機會。但我們真正談論的是調整那裡的邊緣。基本面沒有改變。
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst
And maybe just a quick one on par in the quarter. You outlined $53 million of incremental costs, which there's a pretty substantial delta and you outlined 3 buckets between metal costs, muscles and then just tell inflation. Could you maybe add a little bit more granularity in terms of the bucket breakout? And then just update us on how you see cost progression in the back half of the year in part.
也許只是本季度的快速表現。您概述了 5300 萬美元的增量成本,其中存在相當大的增量,您概述了金屬成本、肌肉成本和通貨膨脹之間的 3 個部分。您能否在桶突破方面添加更多的粒度?然後向我們通報您對下半年成本進展的看法。
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
Continue to be high for our businesses, including P&ARP, I would say. And inflation, it really stayed high in this quarter and it was broad-based for P&ARP and for some of the other -- for the other to be used as well and that continued to be -- have an adverse impact across a number of categories that Jean-Marc was mentioning. So I would say inflation is a big piece of that minus $53 million that you mentioned. But at the same time, operating costs outside of inflation has increased as well with more labor, more maintenance, more subcontracting, if you will, and some of the other operating cost categories.
我想說,我們的業務(包括 P&ARP)繼續保持高位。通貨膨脹在本季度確實保持在高位,並且對於 P&ARP 和其他一些項目(對於其他項目也將繼續使用)來說具有廣泛的基礎,對許多類別產生了不利影響讓-馬克提到的。所以我想說通貨膨脹是你提到的減去 5300 萬美元的很大一部分。但與此同時,通貨膨脹之外的運營成本也隨著勞動力、維護、分包(如果你願意)以及其他一些運營成本類別的增加而增加。
But they're generally, I would say, kind of more contained relative to the higher activity levels. So I think we're okay there. Muscle Shoals maintenance. It's -- while it's still high, it's more under control this quarter, and the team is working really hard to bring the plant back to normal and the impact, as we mentioned in the past, will continue to last throughout the rest of the year.
但我想說的是,相對於較高的活動水平,它們通常更受限制。所以我認為我們在那裡沒問題。馬斯肖爾斯維護。雖然仍然很高,但本季度已經得到更多控制,團隊正在非常努力地使工廠恢復正常,正如我們過去提到的,這種影響將在今年剩餘時間內繼續持續。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research.
今天的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
I wanted to dive a little bit in not taking away from the strength in auto and aerospace, but the packaging and building construction markets that have shown a bit more weakness. So starting with packaging. On the Investor Day, a little over a year ago, you talked about 4% to 5% growth. Now you're talking about low to mid-single digit. Is that a change? And if so, like is there anything structural that should give us some pause in terms of the extent of upside to packaging? I know you talked about near-term less destocking. But if we think out to the future, is the growth story a little more muted than we thought, if you can provide some more color there.
我想深入探討的不是汽車和航空航天領域的優勢,而是包裝和建築市場的疲軟表現。那麼就從包裝開始吧。在一年多前的投資者日,您談到了 4% 到 5% 的增長。現在你談論的是低到中個位數。這是一個改變嗎?如果是這樣,那麼是否有任何結構性因素應該讓我們在包裝的上行空間方面暫停一下?我知道您談到了近期減少庫存的情況。但如果我們展望未來,如果你能提供更多的色彩,那麼增長故事是否會比我們想像的更加平靜。
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
I think it's -- I would qualify it as tweaking around the edges here because the 1% difference in growth rate doesn't impact so much but certainly not a 25 outlook nor even a 28 outlook. So no, and I think it's more a reflection of the fact that because we have had that kind of set back with the reduction in volume this year, we think that the long-term growth rate may be a little bit more muted because otherwise, that would imply a very significant catch-up very soon in packaging. So it's more kind of the arithmetics of how we look at the packaging market long term. We continue to think it's a good market. The cans continue to win share, to gain share against all the substrates, but the path may be a little bit more moderate, but still very attractive to us.
我認為,我將其定義為邊緣調整,因為 1% 的增長率差異不會產生太大影響,但肯定不會影響 25 的前景,甚至不會影響 28 的前景。所以不,我認為這更多地反映了這樣一個事實,因為我們今年因銷量減少而遇到了這種挫折,我們認為長期增長率可能會更加溫和,因為否則,這意味著包裝領域很快就會出現非常顯著的追趕。因此,這更像是我們如何長期看待包裝市場的算術。我們仍然認為這是一個很好的市場。罐頭繼續贏得市場份額,在所有基材上獲得市場份額,但路徑可能稍微溫和一點,但對我們來說仍然很有吸引力。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
And the German sale that you detailed, what does that say about the building construction market outlook? Because it seemed to us that maybe that was near a bottom, but you're also exiting it. And so I'm just wondering what we should take away from that in terms of your outlook for that segment.
您詳細介紹的德國銷售情況對建築市場前景有何影響?因為在我們看來,這可能已經接近底部,但你也正在退出它。所以我只是想知道我們應該從您對該細分市場的前景中得出什麼結論。
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Well, that was an opportunity to stick sales. So Building & Construction, as you know, is not a big market for us, right? So a couple of percent of our total sales as a company. So it's certainly not an area of focus for us. What happened here is we've got these 3 plants. We have actually improved performance of these 3 plants quite a fair amount in the past 5 years. And we had somebody come to us and say we're interested in buying them. We want to expand in the German market. So you've got a situation where we, as a company, don't view these plans as strategic, and we've made a nice improvement in profitability.
嗯,這是一個堅持銷售的機會。因此,正如您所知,建築業對我們來說並不是一個大市場,對吧?所以占我們公司總銷售額的百分之幾。所以這當然不是我們關注的領域。這裡發生的事情是我們有這 3 種植物。實際上,在過去 5 年裡,我們已經相當多地提高了這 3 個工廠的性能。有人來找我們說我們有興趣購買它們。我們希望擴大德國市場。因此,作為一家公司,我們並不認為這些計劃具有戰略意義,但我們在盈利能力方面取得了很大的進步。
And we've got a buyer who is interested in them and places a higher value than we do on this business. And then it's a matter of if we keep a business, we will have to put some capital expenditures in. Is it the best return for us. We don't think so. And therefore, the decision was relatively easy once it was clear that the buyer was putting a higher value on the assets than we did. It made sense to tell them. So it wasn't so much about we're afraid of the outlook in building and construction. It's just that it was the right thing to do for us at the right time.
我們有一個買家對他們感興趣,並且比我們對這項業務給予更高的重視。然後就是如果我們繼續做生意,我們就必須投入一些資本支出。這對我們來說是不是最好的回報?我們不這麼認為。因此,一旦明確買家對資產的估值高於我們,決策就相對容易了。告訴他們是有道理的。因此,我們並不擔心建築業的前景。只是我們在正確的時間做了正確的事情。
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
I would just reemphasize what Jean-Marc mentioned earlier. We didn't put this business on the market. And this was not a far as if you will. It was really an opportunistic transaction. It's been years in the making, right? Just the timing kind of worked out the way it did. And the business is a better fit in the buyer's portfolio than in our portfolio.
我只是再次強調讓-馬克之前提到的內容。我們沒有把這項業務投放市場。這並不像你想像的那樣遙遠。這確實是一次機會主義交易。它已經醞釀多年了,對吧?只是時機恰到好處。該業務更適合買方的投資組合,而不是我們的投資組合。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
If I could squeeze one more in. I was interested in your talk about potentially pushing out some of the expansion to 2026. As you know, there's, what, 3 new mills that are kind of targeting that same time frame. So I just wanted to ask if you're seeing any evidence of them in the market starting to talk about contract extensions or if there's any influence of the new mills in your discussions with customers that far out?
如果我能再擠進去一個的話。我對您關於可能將部分擴張推遲到 2026 年的討論很感興趣。正如您所知,有 3 個新工廠的目標是在同一時間範圍內。所以我只是想問一下,您是否在市場上看到了他們開始談論合同延期的任何證據,或者新工廠是否對您與遠方客戶的討論有任何影響?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
No, there isn't. And as we said, we are fully contracted out, and we are through 26, and we've got contracts that go into 27, 28, 29. So it's more a matter of us looking at what do we think the long-term forecast is and how quickly do we need the extra capacity because we need it. So the question is, do we need it in January '24, '25, '26, and we don't want to spend the money sooner than we need, and we certainly don't want to spend it later than we need because otherwise, we'd be not meeting our contractual commitment. So it's really about talking with our customers through their expectations and getting a sense of what do we need to do when. But again, those volumes are contracted. And as you know, there is a margin tolerance, right? Typically, within the contract, it's not like it's absolutely firm amount of tons, right? So there's a margin, and we're talking of playing within that margin that's tolerance around the contract and looking at the markets ourselves will delay a bit if the markets are strong, we'll put it forward.
不,沒有。正如我們所說,我們已經完全外包,我們已經完成了 26 年,並且我們的合同已進入 27 年、28 年、29 年。因此,我們更重要的是考慮我們對長期預測的看法以及我們需要多快的時間才能獲得額外的容量,因為我們需要它。所以問題是,我們是否需要在 24、25、26 年 1 月使用這筆錢,我們不想比我們需要的時間更早地花錢,我們當然也不想比我們需要的時間更晚地花錢,因為否則,我們就無法履行我們的合同承諾。因此,這實際上是與客戶交談,了解他們的期望,並了解我們何時需要做什麼。但同樣,這些數量已經收縮。如您所知,存在裕度容差,對吧?通常,在合同中,並不是絕對固定的噸數,對吧?因此,存在一個保證金,我們正在討論在合同的容忍度內進行交易,並且我們自己觀察市場,如果市場強勁,我們將把它提前。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Corinne Blanchard from Deutsche Bank.
今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Corinne Blanchard。
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
I want to come back to the guidance, and I know there has been a lot of questions, but what the guidance leave mostly driven by the performance of 1Q and 2Q implying kind of relatively unchanged assumptions for the second half of the year. Is that a correct assumption of it?
我想回到指導,我知道存在很多問題,但指導留下的內容主要是由第一季度和第二季度的表現驅動的,這意味著下半年的假設相對不變。這是一個正確的假設嗎?
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
No, I wouldn't say that. I would say, yes, it's partially driven by the outperformance in the first half. And then when we look at the second half, we do expect some of the underlying strength of strengthening the business to continue into the second half that will drive additional outperformance in the second half.
不,我不會這麼說。我想說,是的,部分原因是上半年的出色表現。然後,當我們展望下半年時,我們確實預計增強業務的一些潛在優勢將持續到下半年,這將推動下半年的額外表現。
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Aerospace continue to be strong. We expect packaging to close a bit of the gap. Our pricing is very good and that should give us some lift. And we don't -- and we expect to continue to staff up pain in the specialties segment, and we continue to expect automotive to be strong. So pretty much what you saw at play in the first half will continue in the second half, and we're raising our own internal expectations have been raised for the second half.
航空航天繼續強勁。我們預計包裝將縮小一些差距。我們的定價非常好,這應該會給我們帶來一些提升。我們沒有——我們預計將繼續在專業領域增加人員,並且我們繼續預計汽車行業將表現強勁。所以你在上半場看到的情況幾乎會在下半場繼續下去,我們正在提高我們自己對下半場的內部期望。
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
So what would be the likelihood for you guys to potentially increase again next quarter? Because if you assume you have significant performance again from A&T and higher margin into the second half, that is 900,000 per ton for the user cycle. Very likely, you should see an annual number that is going to be to above the guidance, right?
那麼你們下個季度再次增加的可能性有多大?因為如果你假設 A&T 再次表現出色,並且下半年利潤率更高,那麼用戶週期的利潤率為每噸 900,000。您很可能會看到年度數字將高於指導值,對嗎?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Well, at this stage, this is our best outlook, right? And obviously, there's plenty of very positive into it. And you can have several of them to better or several of them turn worse. And depending on how many of them turn better or worse, you can be within the guidance or outside of the guidance. It is our best view of today's conditions and outlook and what it means for the company. There's some negative -- some risks out there, right? Which we baked into our guidance like the -- there's lots of talk about our UAW strike and the automakers. I mean if they stop their lines, we're not going to ship to them, right? So we try to factor that in our guidance as well.
那麼現階段,這就是我們最好的前景,對吧?顯然,其中有很多非常積極的因素。你可以讓其中幾個變得更好,也可以讓其中幾個變得更糟。根據其中有多少人變得更好或更糟,你可以在指導範圍內或在指導範圍之外。這是我們對當今狀況和前景及其對公司意味著什麼的最佳看法。存在一些負面的——一些風險,對吧?我們將其融入到我們的指導中,例如——有很多關於我們的 UAW 罷工和汽車製造商的討論。我的意思是,如果他們停止生產線,我們就不會發貨給他們,對吧?因此,我們也嘗試在我們的指導中考慮這一點。
And other things, spot prices for energy, they are low. But remember, we're 90% hedged. And in some of our markets, we are actually producing 20%, 30% less than what we should. And therefore, we are positions in energy that we have to unwind in the market that we're making losses on. So you've got all these factors at play. And today, our best year of it is $700 million to $720 million. And obviously, we're working hard to meet our targets and beat them if we can.
其他方面,能源現貨價格也很低。但請記住,我們 90% 都是對沖的。在我們的一些市場,我們的產量實際上比我們應有的產量少了 20%、30%。因此,我們必須在虧損的市場上平倉能源頭寸。所以所有這些因素都在起作用。今天,我們最好的一年是 7 億至 7.2 億美元。顯然,我們正在努力實現我們的目標,並儘可能超越它們。
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
Just bear in mind sorry, just bear in mind, second half, there's seasonality impact as well, so you can just look at the outperformance in the first half and put out to the second half. So we got to take that into consideration.
請記住,抱歉,請記住,下半年,也存在季節性影響,因此您可以只查看上半年的出色表現,然後將其放到下半年。所以我們必須考慮到這一點。
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst
And then just quickly to come back on. So cash flow, free cash flow guidance was increased. And again, you talk about the net debt target to be almost right where you want to be it. So you're going to have some cash flow there that you can invest. Is there any specific area or any specific end markets that you would give priority first?
然後很快就回來。因此,現金流量、自由現金流量指導增加了。您再次談到淨債務目標幾乎就在您想要的位置。所以你在那裡會有一些可以投資的現金流。您是否會首先優先考慮任何特定領域或特定終端市場?
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
So I think as we -- well, I mean, over the short term, we want to maintain, as we mentioned, a balanced capital allocation policy. We guided $340 million to $350 million of CapEx, so you can count that number for the full year. And as we continue to generate free cash flow, and Jean-Marc alluded to this, we'll look at other opportunities to reduce our growth debt obligation because increasing financial flexibility is not just about the leverage target. It's also about reducing the gross debt obligation. I don't know if that's what you're asking.
因此,我認為,正如我們所提到的,我們希望在短期內維持平衡的資本配置政策。我們指導的資本支出為 3.4 億至 3.5 億美元,因此您可以計算全年的數字。隨著我們繼續產生自由現金流,讓-馬克提到了這一點,我們將尋找其他機會來減少我們的增長債務義務,因為提高財務靈活性不僅僅是槓桿目標。它還涉及減少總債務。我不知道你問的是不是這個。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Josh Sullivan from Benchmark Company.
今天的下一個問題來自 Benchmark 公司的 Josh Sullivan。
Joshua Ward Sullivan - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Joshua Ward Sullivan - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Just regarding aerospace demand, do you think you're shipping product in concert with the current build rates communicated by aerospace OEMs?
就航空航天需求而言,您認為您的產品出貨量是否與航空航天原始設備製造商傳達的當前構建速率一致?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Well, there's a lag, obviously, Josh, as you know, between what they're building today and what they will need to build in the future yield and we tend to be 1 to 2 years ahead. So yes, I think we are -- another way to answer your question would be to say that we think we've got sustained growth ahead of us that will take us higher than pre-COVID levels somewhere around 25% would be my guess. So we see continued strength because anything that we can make is needed.
嗯,很明顯,喬什,正如你所知,他們今天正在建造的東西和他們在未來產量中需要建造的東西之間存在著滯後,而我們往往會領先一到兩年。所以,是的,我認為我們是 - 回答你的問題的另一種方式是,我們認為我們已經實現了持續增長,我猜測這將使我們比新冠疫情前的水平更高,約為 25%。所以我們看到了持續的力量,因為我們能做的任何事情都是需要的。
Joshua Ward Sullivan - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Joshua Ward Sullivan - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
So as far as the OEMs inventories, you don't think you're -- you don't think that's a headwind anymore. You think you're shipping at rate with what they're communicating -- is that so?
因此,就原始設備製造商的庫存而言,你認為這不再是一個阻力。你認為你的發貨速度符合他們所傳達的信息——是這樣嗎?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Yes. I'm not even sure -- there are some parts of the supply chain where restocking is complete, others where it isn't. And I think we -- yes, we the--everything we can make, we can ship.
是的。我什至不確定——供應鏈的某些部分已經完成補貨,而另一些部分則沒有。我認為我們——是的,我們——我們可以製造、我們可以運送的一切。
Joshua Ward Sullivan - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Joshua Ward Sullivan - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
And then as we look to later in the decade, there's some aspirational build rate targets that some of the aerospace OEMs would like to get to. How should we think of Constellium's capacity to maybe address some of those out-year (inaudible).
然後,當我們展望本世紀後期時,一些航空航天原始設備製造商希望達到一些理想的建造率目標。我們應該如何看待 Constellium 解決其中一些問題的能力(聽不清)。
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
That's going to require a lot of work from us, Josh, because as I mentioned, our strategy is focus on value-added products. I mean, there are several pillars to our strategy, but that's the number one, which means we are making more and more complex, complicated, high-value products, which takes more time. So if you look at the pre-covid shipments we are making, say, 2019 and you contrast that with what we could be making in 2025, the same tons, number of tons will require much more work and will command even more value-added revenue and EBITDA.
喬什,這需要我們做大量的工作,因為正如我提到的,我們的戰略是專注於增值產品。我的意思是,我們的戰略有幾個支柱,但這是第一位的,這意味著我們正在製造越來越複雜、複雜、高價值的產品,這需要更多的時間。因此,如果你看一下我們在 2019 年的發貨量,並將其與 2025 年的發貨量進行對比,就會發現同樣的噸數將需要更多的工作,並且需要更多的附加值收入和EBITDA。
So we have challenges in terms of capacity, and the teams are working very hard to debottleneck our plants and make some smart investments, not CapEx into the plant so that we build more flexibility, more capability, more capacity. So that's going to be a challenge, but we're very excited about it. It's a good challenge to have, and it creates a very nice opportunities for very high return on capital expenditures.
因此,我們在產能方面面臨挑戰,團隊正在非常努力地消除我們工廠的瓶頸,並進行一些明智的投資,而不是對工廠進行資本支出,以便我們建立更多的靈活性、更多的能力、更多的產能。所以這將是一個挑戰,但我們對此感到非常興奮。這是一個很好的挑戰,它為獲得很高的資本支出回報創造了一個非常好的機會。
Joshua Ward Sullivan - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Joshua Ward Sullivan - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
And then just as you look to refine the portfolio and understand the divestiture was more opportunistic. But as you're talking about some of those higher-value products in aerospace, do you think you'll move up the value chain at all? Or are there opportunities to do more complex products for your aerospace or space customers?
然後,當您希望完善投資組合併了解剝離更具機會主義色彩時。但當您談論航空航天領域的一些高價值產品時,您認為您會向價值鏈上游移動嗎?或者是否有機會為您的航空航天或太空客戶生產更複雜的產品?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
There is some, but it's at the margin. So I think it's a constant gradual improvement. And what you have seen is what you will continue to see. There's no -- it's an evolution. There's no revolution in terms of our product positioning or our manufacturing capabilities or footprint.
有一些,但處於邊緣。所以我認為這是一個不斷逐步改進的過程。您所看到的就是您將繼續看到的。不存在——這是一種進化。我們的產品定位、製造能力或足跡沒有發生任何革命。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Sean-M Wondrack from Deutsche Bank.
今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sean-M Wondrack。
Sean-M Wondrack - VP & Senior Credit Analyst
Sean-M Wondrack - VP & Senior Credit Analyst
Congratulations to Ingrid on the promotion. Going back and sorry to beat the dead horse here with the packaging question. Last quarter, when we spoke, you seemed a little bit down on the segment. You weren't quite sure if they were going to get into enough marketing and enough promotional activity to kind of move the process along there. It does sound like your comes improved a little bit with respect to that. Would you say that's fair to say that maybe you're kind of seeing what you needed to see there? Maybe we're in the early innings of the recovery? Or can you just comment on that a little more, please?
祝賀英格麗德晉升。回去很抱歉在包裝問題上打敗了死馬。上個季度,當我們交談時,您似乎對該細分市場有點失望。你不太確定他們是否會進行足夠的營銷和促銷活動來推動這一進程。聽起來你的表現確實在這方面有所改善。您是否可以公平地說,也許您在那裡看到了您需要看到的東西?也許我們正處於復甦的初期?或者您可以對此發表更多評論嗎?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
The the second quarter was not as bad from a comp basis on the first quarter. And what we have in our books for the third quarter is making some progress. But the comps also are getting easier because we started seeing some slowdown in the second half of last year as well. So we're getting to a more normal territory. So that's good. It's factored obviously in our forecast, in our guidance. And we believe as we look at the data, that [can] continue to be the preferred package. And it was clear when they had the -- when can the upswing, it's also very clear in the downturn. And I think that's very reassuring for the long run. So that's why that -- the long-term view is coloring a little bit my lenses here, which is it is a package that has a very good future, and that's good for us.
與第一季度相比,第二季度的情況並沒有那麼糟糕。我們在第三季度的賬目中取得了一些進展。但競爭也變得越來越容易,因為我們在去年下半年也開始看到一些放緩。所以我們正在進入一個更加正常的領域。所以這樣很好。這顯然已納入我們的預測和指導中。我們相信,當我們查看數據時,[可以]繼續成為首選方案。很明顯,他們什麼時候可以經濟復甦,在經濟低迷時期也很清楚。我認為從長遠來看,這非常令人放心。這就是為什麼——長期的觀點給我的鏡頭帶來了一點色彩,這是一個有著非常美好未來的一攬子計劃,這對我們有好處。
Sean-M Wondrack - VP & Senior Credit Analyst
Sean-M Wondrack - VP & Senior Credit Analyst
And then just due to your own improvement here with leverage coming down so much and getting closer to that target. When you think about capital allocation, is there any chance that you would consider some form of M&A, whether it's North America or Europe, you either add another leg to the stool or whatnot?
然後只是由於您自己的進步,槓桿率下降了很多並且越來越接近該目標。當你考慮資本配置時,你是否有機會考慮某種形式的併購,無論是北美還是歐洲,你要么在凳子上再加一條腿,要么什麼?
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Well, that's part of indeed of the capital allocation choices we've got to make. But the first thing about M&A is most of them fail. So if we were to go down that path, they fail for the buyer, by the way. If we were to go down that path, we would be highly selective that's really important -- it would need to be in line with our strategy, would be highly selective. Jack, do you want to comment further?
嗯,這確實是我們必須做出的資本配置選擇的一部分。但併購的第一件事是大多數都失敗了。因此,如果我們沿著這條路走下去,順便說一句,他們對買家來說就會失敗。如果我們要走這條路,我們將具有高度選擇性,這非常重要——它需要符合我們的戰略,將具有高度選擇性。傑克,你想進一步發表評論嗎?
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
John Clark - Senior VP & Advisor to the CEO
Yes. I'll just basically -- what you just said, I mean, look, M&A is a tool in the tool case, as I like to say, right? So I think I'm being selective, we have to be really convinced any deals we do create access value for our shareholders. The targets will have to be a gift strategically and they have to be a gift fit culturally, and we will not jeopardize our financial flexibility so -- if that's helpful.
是的。我基本上 - 你剛才所說的,我的意思是,併購是工具箱中的一個工具,正如我喜歡說的,對嗎?所以我認為我是有選擇性的,我們必須真正相信我們所做的任何交易都能為股東創造價值。這些目標必須是戰略上的禮物,而且必須是適合文化的禮物,因此我們不會損害我們的財務靈活性——如果這有幫助的話。
Operator
Operator
There are no additional questions waiting at this time. So I'd like to pass the conference back over to Jean-Marc Germain, CEO of Constellium, for any closing remarks.
目前沒有其他問題等待。因此,我想將會議轉回給 Constellium 首席執行官 Jean-Marc Germain 致閉幕詞。
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - CEO & Executive Director
Well, thank you very much, everybody, for attending today. As you can see, we're very pleased with the progress we're making and very pleased with our revised outlook, and we look forward to updating you on our further progress in a few months' time. Thank you. Have a good day.
嗯,非常感謝大家今天出席。正如您所看到的,我們對所取得的進展非常滿意,對修改後的前景也非常滿意,我們期待在幾個月後向您通報我們的進一步進展。謝謝。祝你有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。