Centerspace (CSR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and thank you for attending today's Centerspace first quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is [Shezan], and I'll be your moderator today.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的 Centerspace 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我的名字是 [Shezan]，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Josh Klaetsch, Centerspace. You may now proceed.

現在我想將會議交給主持人 Centerspace 的 Josh Klaetsch。您現在可以繼續。

Good afternoon. Centerspace's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was filed with the SEC yesterday after the market closed. Additionally, our earnings reliefs and supplemental disclosure package, as well as an updated investor presentation, have been posted to our website at centerspacehomes.com and filed on Form 8-K.

午安.Centerspace 於昨日股市收盤後向美國證券交易委員會提交了截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的季度 10-Q 表。此外，我們的獲利減免和補充揭露方案以及更新的投資者介紹已發佈在我們的網站 centerspacehomes.com 上，並以 8-K 表格形式提交。

It's important to note that today's remarks will include statements about our business outlook and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties discussed in our filing under the section titled Risk factors and in our other filings with the SEC.

值得注意的是，今天的評論將包括有關我們的業務前景的陳述以及基於管理層當前觀點和假設的其他前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在「風險因素」部分下的文件以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中討論的風險和不確定性的影響。

We cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statements will materialize, and you were cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Please refer to our earnings release for reconciliation of any non-GAAP information which may be discussed on today's call.

我們無法保證任何前瞻性陳述將會實現，並且我們提醒您不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們的收益報告，以了解今天電話會議上可能討論的任何非 GAAP 資訊的對帳。

I'll now turn it over to Centerspace's President and CEO, Anne Olson for the company's prepared remarks.

現在，我將把時間交給 Centerspace 總裁兼執行長 Anne Olson，請她發表公司準備好的發言。

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Bhairav Patel, our Chief Financial Officer, and Grant Campbell, SVP of Investments and Capital Markets.

大家好，感謝大家的參與。今天與我一起的還有我們的財務長 Bhairav Patel 和投資與資本市場資深副總裁 Grant Campbell。

It is Friday, and I know you are all anxious to ask us questions about what our plans are for the weekend. But first we'd like to provide some brief highlights for the quarter. Our first quarter demonstrated our team's ability to drive exceptional results with strong occupancy and expense control, bolstering our performance and setting us up well for the remainder of 2025.

今天是星期五，我知道你們都很急切地想問我們週末有什麼計畫。但首先我們想簡單介紹一下本季的一些亮點。我們的第一季展示了我們團隊透過強大的入住率和費用控制取得卓越成果的能力，增強了我們的業績，並為 2025 年剩餘時間做好了準備。

Multi-family fundamentals are strong, with sustained demand driving net absorption across the industry. For us, strong demand translated into our results in several ways, most notably, the 120-basis point year over year improvement in our weighted average occupancy for our same store portfolio.

多戶型住宅基本面強勁，持續的需求推動整個產業的淨吸收量。對我們來說，強勁的需求透過多種方式轉化為我們的業績，最顯著的是，我們同店加權平均入住率同比提高了 120 個基點。

As we sit today, our average physical occupancy is 96%, with April renewal retention coming in around 57%. Our blended leasing spreads, shown on page 8 of the investor presentation filed in connection with our earnings relief and supplemental were up 70 basis points in the first quarter, and the positive trend continued into April.

截至目前，我們的平均實際入住率為 96%，四月續訂保留率約為 57%。我們的混合租賃利差（與我們的收益減免和補充相關的投資者報告第 8 頁顯示）在第一季度上漲了 70 個基點，並且這一積極趨勢一直持續到 4 月份。

Renewal increases have remained steady at a high 2% to mid 3% level, while new lease spreads are improving. After being down 3.5% in Q4 2024, they increased sequentially to 1.1% in Q1, and in April, they moved to a positive 2.4%. Resident health remains strong, with growth in income levels keeping the rent to income ratio at 21.6%. Bad debt remains in line with expectations at roughly 40 basis points, while low unemployment rates and healthy regional economies point to the continuation of this trend.

續約增幅維持穩定在 2% 至 3% 左右的高位，而新租息差也在改善。在 2024 年第四季下降 3.5% 之後，第一季環比上升至 1.1%，4 月則升至正 2.4%。居民健康狀況依然良好，收入水準的成長使租金與收入比率保持在 21.6%。壞帳率仍與預期相符，約為 40 個基點，而低失業率和健康的區域經濟表明這一趨勢將持續下去。

Much of our footprint with its differentiated focus on Midwest and Mountain West regions of the country continues to benefit from a lack of new supplies. Notably, North Dakota is again leading our portfolio with blended leasing spreads of 5.3% year-to-date, and Omaha has delivered similarly positive results.

我們的大部分業務都集中在美國中西部和山區西部地區，並且繼續受益於新供應的缺乏。值得注意的是，北達科他州再次以年初至今 5.3% 的混合租賃利差領先我們的投資組合，奧馬哈也取得了同樣積極的表現。

In our largest market of Minneapolis, leasing spreads are coming in ahead of our portfolio average, and while we are still seeing the impact of supply pressure in Denver, we're optimistic that the demand trend is strong enough to improve new lease rates as the year progresses.

在我們最大的市場明尼阿波利斯，租賃利差高於我們的投資組合平均水平，雖然我們仍然看到丹佛供應壓力的影響，但我們樂觀地認為，隨著時間的推移，需求趨勢足夠強勁，可以提高新的租賃利率。

We feel great about the first quarter even if it was uneventful. When considering the macroeconomic environment and its impact on our results and strategic direction, we are reaffirming our guidance for the full year. We're going to maintain discipline on all areas within our control and be ready to take advantage of opportunities to advance our platform. Grant will now share an overview of the state of the market and how it plays into our continued growth.

儘管第一季沒有什麼波瀾，但我們對它感覺很好。考慮到宏觀經濟環境及其對我們的業績和策略方向的影響，我們重申對全年的指導。我們將在我們控制的所有領域保持紀律，並準備好利用機會推進我們的平台。格蘭特現在將概述市場狀況以及它對我們持續成長的影響。

Thanks, Anne, and good afternoon, everyone. Within the investment landscape, we are seeing apartment demand remain resilient while new supply additions continue on a downward trend. As we look forward to the next 12 months, we expect only a 2.2% expansion of apartment stock in our markets. This is down from a 3.8% increase over the prior year and compares favorably to historical absorption levels. We anticipate this dynamic will continue to shift in our favor.

謝謝，安妮，大家下午好。在投資領域，我們看到公寓需求仍保持彈性，而新增供應量則持續呈下降趨勢。展望未來 12 個月，我們預期我們市場上的公寓存量僅會成長 2.2%。這一增幅低於前一年的 3.8%，但與歷史吸收水準相比有所改善。我們預計這種動態將繼續朝著有利於我們的方向轉變。

Recent macroeconomic events have brought real-time volatility to capital markets, so the amount of capital desiring to be in the multi-family space remains high, driven by forecasts for near-term strengthening of underlying rent growth and the long-term durability of the asset class. This continues to bolster pricing on most transactions, even in an environment where broader uncertainties persist.

最近的宏觀經濟事件為資本市場帶來了即時波動，因此，受近期潛在租金增長將加強以及該資產類別的長期持久性的預測推動，希望進入多戶型住宅領域的資本數量仍然很高。即使在更廣泛的不確定性仍然存在的環境下，這也繼續支撐大多數交易的定價。

In Colorado and Minneapolis, where 59% of our NOI is generated, institutional quality assets are pricing at mid to high 4% and low 5% cap rates respectively. This represents favorable private market pricing compared to that implied by our stock price. On the capital allocation front, we will remain focused this year on enhancing our differentiated mountain west and midwest geography.

在科羅拉多州和明尼阿波利斯，我們的 59% 的淨營業收入產生於這兩個地方，機構品質資產的定價分別為 4% 的中高資本化率和 5% 的低資本化率。與我們的股票價格相比，這代表著有利的私人市場定價。在資本配置方面，我們今年將繼續專注於加強我們差異化的西部山區和中西部地理區域。

We have fortified our balance sheet, enhanced our capital positioning, and we will continue evaluating a variety of new investment opportunities to advance our strategic plans. Current public market pricing and private market pricing are experiencing a disconnect, and this will have to be considered in any transaction we explore.

我們鞏固了資產負債表，增強了資本配置，並將繼續評估各種新的投資機會以推進我們的策略計劃。目前公開市場定價和私人市場定價之間存在脫節，我們在探索的任何交易中都必須考慮到這一點。

On top of this, we are mindful that market exposures, leverage, share liquidity, and scale are important considerations for investors. These variables sometimes compete with each other, and we will continue holistically evaluating and managing all of these considerations as we further implement capital allocation strategies to increase the quality of our cash flow. We are up to the task based on our track record of execution and pursuit of better every day.

除此之外，我們也注意到市場風險、槓桿、股票流動性和規模都是投資人的重要考量。這些變數有時會相互競爭，我們將繼續全面評估和管理所有這些考慮因素，同時進一步實施資本配置策略以提高現金流品質。憑藉我們每天的執行記錄和對更好追求，我們能夠勝任這項任務。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Bhairav to discuss our overall financial results for Q1 and outlook for the remainder of 2025.

接下來，我將把時間交給 Bhairav 來討論我們第一季的整體財務表現以及 2025 年剩餘時間的展望。

Thanks, Grant, and hello, everyone. Last night, we reported core of $1.21 per diluted share for the first quarter, given by a 2.1% year-over-year increase in same store NOI. NOI and earnings growth were right in line with our expectations and represent a solid start to the year.

謝謝，格蘭特，大家好。昨晚，我們報告第一季每股攤薄收益為 1.21 美元，這是由於同店淨銷售額年增 2.1%。淨營業利潤和獲利成長完全符合我們的預期，代表今年有一個良好的開始。

Revenues from same shore communities increased by 3.5% compared to the same quarter of 2024 and benefited from 120 basis point year-over-year increase in occupancy to 95.8%. That along with exposure at all-time lows, optimally positions us heading into leasing season.

與 2024 年同期相比，同一海岸社區的收入成長了 3.5%，入住率年增 120 個基點，達到 95.8%。再加上處於歷史最低水平的曝光度，使我們在進入租賃季節時處於最佳位置。

The growth in revenue was offset by the expected increase in same store expenses which were up 5.8% year over year. The primary driver of the increase was property taxes, as we received $680,000 in property tax appeal refunds in the first quarter of last year, creating a challenging year-over-year comp for the current quarter. A slight increase relative to expectations and initial assessments received in a couple of jurisdictions also contributed to the increase.

收入的成長被預期的同店支出成長所抵消，同店支出較去年同期成長 5.8%。成長的主要驅動力是房產稅，因為我們在去年第一季收到了 68 萬美元的房產稅申訴退款，這使得本季的同比收入具有挑戰性。與預期相比略有增加，並且一些司法管轄區的初步評估也導致了這一增長。

However, total expenses were in line with expectations due to offsetting savings across the board on the controllable side. Turning to guidance, we reiterated our 2025 expectations in last night's press release. Our Q1 operating performance was right on top of our projections for the quarter, and releasing trends evolving as expected, we remain on course to achieve the midpoint of $4.98 per share for core FFO and year-over-year same store NOI growth of 2.25%. Other components of our guidance are substantially unchanged.

不過，由於可控方面的全面抵銷節省，總支出符合預期。談到指導，我們在昨晚的新聞稿中重申了我們對 2025 年的預期。我們第一季的營運業績正好超出了我們對本季度的預測，而且發布趨勢也正如預期的那樣，我們仍然有望實現核心 FFO 每股 4.98 美元的中點，同店 NOI 同比增長 2.25%。我們指導的其他部分基本上沒有變化。

On the capital front, our debt maturity profile remains well laddered with minimal maturity this year, a weighted average debt cost of 3.6%, and a weighted average time to maturity of 5.4 years. In the face of continued broader market volatility, our access to capital remains robust with over $223 million of total liquidity between our cash on hand and our line of credit. To conclude, C1 was a great start to our year and positioned us to build upon these results throughout 2025.

在資本方面，我們的債務到期狀況仍然保持良好，今年的到期期限最短，加權平均債務成本為 3.6%，加權平均到期時間為 5.4 年。面對持續的市場波動，我們的資本獲取管道仍然強勁，我們的現金和信用額度之間的總流動資金超過 2.23 億美元。總而言之，C1 為我們今年的開端奠定了良好的基礎，並為我們在 2025 年繼續鞏固這些成果奠定了基礎。

And with that, I will turn the line back to the operator for your questions.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給接線員，以便回答您的​​問題。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的布拉德‧赫弗恩 (Brad Heffern)。

Hey, everybody, thanks for taking the question. You said in the prepared comments that operations are trending, and it's expected. But I think the Midwest apartment market as a whole seems to be having a really strong start. Your occupancy is at record levels. So I'm just wondering, are you being conservative and modest early in the year or is there something that I'm missing because it just seems like things are actually ahead of plan?

嘿，大家好，感謝你們提出這個問題。您在準備好的評論中說，營運正在呈現趨勢，這是意料之中的。但我認為中西部公寓市場整體開局似乎非常強勁。您的入住率達到了創紀錄的水平。所以我只是想知道，您是否在年初就採取了保守和謙虛的態度，或者我是否忽略了什麼，因為看起來事情實際上已經超出了計劃？

Yeah, thanks for the question, Brad, and happy Friday. You know this, we did expect that the Midwest was going to be strong this year. And in fact, we're seeing that, as I mentioned, in areas like North Dakota and Omaha, even Minneapolis, which has had positive new lease spread since February in our portfolio.

是的，謝謝你的提問，布拉德，祝你週五愉快。你知道，我們確實預期中西部地區今年將會表現強勁。事實上，正如我所提到的，我們看到北達科他州、奧馬哈甚至明尼阿波利斯等地區自 2 月以來在我們的投資組合中都出現了正的新租賃利差。

So I think we expected really. Strong growth, particularly given the strong performance last year and therefore we are right on plan. We are seeing really strong numbers that's leading to a pretty big loss to lease in some of those markets. So not only thinking about this year but into next year, we think there's quite a bit of runway in those Midwest markets.

所以我認為我們確實期待過。強勁成長，特別是考慮到去年的強勁表現，因此我們的計劃是正確的。我們看到非常強勁的數據，導致其中一些市場的租賃出現相當大的損失。因此，不僅考慮今年，而且考慮明年，我們認為中西部市場還有相當大的發展空間。

Okay, got it. And then I think with last earnings you said the guidance included flat occupancy for '25. I think you said it's up 120 basis points in the first quarter. So, are you planning for that to give away a lot of that occupancy in the peak season in favor of of rate. And then, and you mentioned you would tell us what you're going to do for the weekend, so I want to hear that too.

好的，明白了。然後我認為，根據您所說的上次收益預測，該預測包括 25 年的固定入住率。我想您說過第一季上漲了 120 個基點。那麼，您是否計劃在旺季放棄大量入住率，以提高房價？然後，你提到你會告訴我們你週末要做什麼，所以我也想聽聽。

Of course, happy to answer both of those. So we are -- our projections include occupancy around 95%. As you noted today, we sit at 96%. That positions us really well as we head into those peak leasing, but we do expect it to come off so that the overall average for the year will be 95%. If demand continues, we will continue to push rate and keep occupancy strong. For the weekend, I have some good family plans, Brad. I have some time with my mom and my sister's plan for tomorrow. So hopefully, some relaxing.

當然，我很樂意回答這兩個問題。所以我們的預測是入住率約 95%。正如您今天所指出的，我們的比例已達到 96%。當我們進入租賃高峰期時，這讓我們處於非常有利的位置，但我們確實預計它會下降，以便全年的整體平均水平將達到 95%。如果需求持續，我們將繼續提高房價並保持強勁的入住率。布拉德，週末我有一些很好的家庭計劃。我和媽媽還有姊姊討論明天的計畫。所以希望能夠放鬆一下。

Great, enjoy that. Thanks.

太好了，好好享受吧。謝謝。

Ami Probandt, UBS.

瑞銀的 Ami Probandt。

Hi, thanks. There was some lumpiness in the OpEx this quarter, particularly with elevated increases in real estate taxes and utilities. Understand that real estate taxes, some of that was due to a tough comp last year, but how should be thinking about growth for the remainder of the year in these two lines and should we expecting the additional lumpiness?

你好，謝謝。本季的營運支出有些不穩定，特別是房地產稅和公用事業費用的大幅增加。了解房地產稅，部分原因是去年的艱難競爭，但我們應該如何考慮今年剩餘時間這兩項業務的成長，以及我們是否應該預期會出現額外的波動？

Thanks, Amy. I'll ask Bhairav to take that one.

謝謝，艾米。我會讓 Bhairav 拿走這個。

Yeah, I'll take that one. Yes, so there is some lumpiness. The lumpiness is expected to be in the first and the fourth quarters. That's when we received most of our appeals last year. There is another component of the increase, and that is basically some increased assessments that we received recently. In a couple of jurisdictions, for example, in Denver, there are a couple of assessments that came in slightly higher.

是的，我要那個。是的，所以有些不平整。預計第一季和第四季將出現波動。去年我們大部分的上訴都是在那時收到的。成長的另一個因素是，我們最近收到的一些增加的評估。在一些司法管轄區，例如丹佛，有幾項評估結果略高一些。

So we have increased our expectations for the year for tax increases to reflect that. The Denver increased at two parts, one was a true up of 2024, and another one was related to 2025 because, we base 2025 expectations on 2024 results. But that should not be smooth going forward. There's some lumpiness, as I said, that you'll see in Q4 because we had some apps that came in Q4 of last year as well. But overall we have increased the midpoint of our non-controllable spend by 2.25%. That's a $650,000 increase, and that's really a result of the new assessments we've received, most of it in Denver, but also a few in Minneapolis and Nebraska.

因此，我們提高了對今年增稅的預期，以反映這一點。丹佛的成長分為兩個部分，一部分是 2024 年的真實成長，另一部分與 2025 年有關，因為我們根據 2024 年的結果來預測 2025 年的成長率。但未來發展應該不會一帆風順。正如我所說，您將在第四季度看到一些不平衡現象，因為我們去年第四季也推出了一些應用程式。但整體而言，我們將不可控制支出的中點提高了 2.25%。這是 65 萬美元的增長，這實際上是我們收到的新評估的結果，其中大部分來自丹佛，但也有少數來自明尼阿波利斯和內布拉斯加州。

Got it, thanks. And retention came down in the quarter, so can you talk through some of the moving pieces that might be leading to you seeing a little bit higher turnover?

明白了，謝謝。本季留存率下降，能否談談導致員工流動率略高的一些因素？

Yeah, I can start and and and chime in. I mean, there's nothing really specific from a trend perspective that concerns us based on Q1 retention levels. It's also a period where, we have the least number of leases expiring. It's about 14% of our portfolio turns in Q1. There was some noise in Nebraska as we were close to, the last wave. We're basically rolling out the last phase of value add.

是的，我可以開始並加入進來。我的意思是，從趨勢角度來看，根據第一季的保留水平，並沒有什麼特別值得我們關注的事情。這也是我們租約到期數量最少的時期。我們第一季的投資組合週轉率約為 14%。當我們接近最後一波海浪時，內布拉斯加州出現了一些噪音。我們基本上正在推出增值的最後階段。

A project over there at a couple of properties that's forced some move outs. So normalizing for that we will be in the low 50s and most importantly, April jumped to about 58%, 59%, and the explorations in April were about 100 compared to 1,850 for Q1 in total. So overall we do believe that retention will pick up. We've already seen that happening in April. We do expect the second quarter to have strong retention, so not really concerned about the recent trend.

那邊有幾處房產正在進行一個項目，迫使一些人搬離。因此，正常化後我們將處於 50% 出頭，最重要的是，4 月份躍升至約 58%、59%，4 月份的勘探次數約為 100 次，而第一季的勘探次數總計為 1,850 次。所以總體來說，我們確實相信保留率會上升。我們已經在四月看到這種情況發生。我們確實預計第二季的留存率會很高，所以並不真正擔心最近的趨勢。

Great, thank you. Have a good weekend.

太好了，謝謝。有一個美好的周末。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

Great, thank you. I was hoping you could talk more about Denver. With the lowest new and renewal rate growth in your portfolio year-to-date, how do you see that market playing out over the rest of the year? When do you think we might see an inflection in rents there, particularly new rate growth? And do you think Denver stay weak in the 26th?

太好了，謝謝。我希望你能多談談丹佛。今年迄今為止，您的投資組合中的新保和續保率增幅最低，您認為今年剩餘時間內市場將如何表現？您認為什麼時候我們會看到那裡的租金出現轉折點，特別是新利率的成長？您認為丹佛隊在第 26 輪表現仍然較弱嗎？

Yeah, great questions, Jamie. I think lots of eyes on Denver and some good data points from our other public peers as well. So we've seen -- as we look at April, we have about a 200 basis point improvement in new lease spreads between March and April alone, so some really good traction there. It's about 270 basis points better than Q1 as a whole, as we look just at the April results. So when we think about peak supply, really being kind of end of second in the third quarter later in the year, I think, 12 months out is where we believe we'll really start to see the inflection point in the rates.

是的，很棒的問題，傑米。我認為很多人都在關注丹佛，而其他公眾同行也提供了一些很好的數據點。因此，我們看到——當我們回顧 4 月時，僅在 3 月和 4 月之間，新租賃利差就提高了約 200 個基點，因此這確實具有良好的牽引力。如果我們只看 4 月的結果，它比整個第一季好大約 270 個基點。因此，當我們考慮供應高峰時，實際上是在今年稍後的第三季末，我認為，12 個月後，我們相信我們將真正開始看到利率的轉折點。

So hopefully, into Q3, we start seeing that newly those projects that were delivered in the fall of last year are starting to get stabilized. The demand is very strong in Denver. The absorption has been pretty good. And the demand at our properties has been strong, helping us to keep occupancy higher. So part of that is that the new projects do have higher rates overall.

因此，希望進入第三季度，我們開始看到去年秋季交付的那些新項目開始穩定下來。丹佛的需求非常強勁。吸收效果還挺好的。我們飯店的需求一直很強勁，這有助於我們保持較高的入住率。因此，部分原因是新項目的整體利率確實更高。

And so we feel really well positioned to see an inflection yet this year and believe that our lease rates will turn positive, towards the end of the year. But we've seen strong demand for our products in Denver. We don't think that will taper off and we think that they will, bring us into the end of the year positive and positive into 2026.

因此，我們感覺今年很有可能出現拐點，並且相信到今年年底我們的租賃率將轉為正值。但我們發現丹佛對我們產品的需求強勁。我們認為這種勢頭不會減弱，而且我們認為，這將使我們在今年年底取得積極成果，並在 2026 年取得積極成果。

Okay, thank you for that. And then just thinking about North Dakota, which is continues to be one of your strongest markets with the highest new and renewal rate year to date. Does this change your view at all on capital recycling there in the more institutional markets? Can you consider weaker fundamentals in markets like Denver and probably much more competitive pricing on transactions?

好的，謝謝你。然後想想北達科他州，它仍然是你們最強大的市場之一，今年迄今為止新客戶和續約率最高。這是否會改變您對機構化市場中資本循環的看法？您是否可以考慮丹佛等市場的基本面較弱，而交易定價可能更具競爭力？

Yeah, that's a great question. It doesn't change our thinking on that overall, we do like the stability that the Midwest provides because, when there's supply elsewhere, there's usually not as much in the Midwest and the demand has stayed strong.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。總體而言，這並沒有改變我們的想法，我們確實喜歡中西部地區提供的穩定性，因為當其他地方有供應時，中西部地區的供應通常沒有那麼多，而且需求一直保持強勁。

There are still -- those markets still remain small and so they can have sometimes a little bit more volatility, a little bit of supply in a town like Bismarck can impact our results. The liquidity is still more limited in those markets. And I mean there are reasons why North Dakota didn't see as much supply last year, and those are really related to the underlying fundamentals of job and population growth.

這些市場仍然規模較小，因此有時可能會出現一些波動，俾斯麥等城鎮的一點供應都會影響我們的表現。這些市場的流動性仍然比較有限。我的意思是，北達科他州去年的供應量沒有那麼多是有原因的，這些原因實際上與就業和人口成長的基本面有關。

So you know being there has been great for us and it's really provided a good balance to our markets like Denver, where the supply really did impact our new lease rates. But it's still -- we still are thinking about capital recycling into markets that have stronger liquidity, more visibility for our investors, and longer-term growth prospects related to the underlying fundamentals of population and job growth.

所以你知道，在那裡對我們來說是件好事，它確實為我們的市場（如丹佛）提供了良好的平衡，那裡的供應確實影響了我們的新租賃率。但我們仍在考慮將資本回流到流動性較強、投資人可見度較高、與人口和就業成長基本面相關的長期成長前景較好的市場。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Rob Stevenson, Janney.

羅伯史蒂文森、珍妮。

Good afternoon, guys. And Anne or Grant, page 20 of the slide deck has supply in second quarter spiking back up in your markets. Can you talk about what markets or submarkets where you still have significant supply to deal with over the remainder of the year and any markets where you're not yet on the backside of the supply wave?

大家下午好。安妮或格蘭特，投影片第 20 頁顯示，第二季你們市場的供應量將大幅增加。您能否談談在今年剩餘時間內您仍有大量供應需要處理的市場或子市場，以及您尚未陷入供應浪潮底部的市場？

Yeah, good afternoon, Rob. Good question. I think most notably, recent supply in Denver, as Anne alluded to in her earlier comments, we're still working out. The backside of that as we work through 2025, roughly 18,000 units were delivered in Denver over the past 12 months. A little over 50% of those were in urban and urban adjacent neighborhoods, and about 47% of those deliveries were in suburban locations.

是的，下午好，羅布。好問題。我認為最值得注意的是，正如安妮在她之前的評論中提到的那樣，我們仍在努力解決丹佛最近的供應問題。展望 2025 年，在過去的 12 個月中，丹佛共交付了約 18,000 台。其中略高於 50% 的配送是在城市和城市鄰近社區進行的，約 47% 的配送是在郊區進行的。

So that is one market where although the go-forward pipeline has significantly shrunk to below historical averages, we still are working through that tail. Rochester, Minnesota would be another market within our portfolio, where if you look at our markets outside of Minneapolis and Denver, next 12 months forecasts of deliveries are very minimal. I'd call it 0% to 2.5% of existing stock. The exception would be Rochester at about 4.5%. That equates to about 500 new units delivering to that market.

因此，儘管在這個市場中，前進的管道已經大幅縮減至歷史平均值以下，但我們仍在努力解決這個問題。明尼蘇達州羅徹斯特是我們投資組合中的另一個市場，如果你看看明尼阿波利斯和丹佛以外的市場，未來 12 個月的交付量預測非常少。我稱之為現有庫存的 0% 到 2.5%。例外的是羅徹斯特，其比例約為 4.5%。這相當於向該市場交付約 500 台新設備。

And anecdotally, I would comment. On the other side of that equation, if you look at job growth within our portfolio, Rochester ranks as a top-five metro in all of the United States in terms of job growth as of March. So I think you're seeing the dynamics there of healthcare and education bringing a lot of employment to that region, some supply is coming.

並且根據趣聞軼事，我會發表評論。另一方面，如果你看看我們投資組合中的就業成長情況，截至 3 月份，羅徹斯特在就業成長方面位列全美前五名大都市之列。所以我認為你會看到醫療保健和教育的動態為該地區帶來了大量的就業機會，一些供應正在湧現。

Okay. And then in the deck where you were showing the second quarter to date of same store leasing update, the 2.4% on new lease growth, what percentage you guys done with second quarter sitting here on May 2? Is that 50% or 66% or more given that leases are signed well in advance of move in?

好的。然後，在你們展示的第二季迄今為止同店租賃更新中，新租賃成長率為 2.4%，那麼你們在 5 月 2 日的第二季完成了多少百分比？考慮到租約是在入住前很久就簽訂的，這個比例是 50% 還是 66% 或更多？

Yeah, we're probably, I'd say, 30%. We've sent out through July 26, but not all of those have come back in yet. So we probably have a good half of the expirations out quoted, but we won't have those all back in. So I'd say between 25% and 30%.

是的，我想大概是 30%。我們已經在 7 月 26 日之前發出了電子郵件，但尚未全部收到。因此，我們可能已經引用了一半的到期日，但我們不會將它們全部收回。所以我認為在 25% 到 30% 之間。

Of second quarter, for April, May, June?

第二季、四月、五月、六月？

Yeah, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

Okay, so there's 80% of the leases left to deal with at this point?

好的，那麼現在還有 80% 的租約要處理嗎？

Where they still have time to provide us their indication. I mean, April is in the books, but people do take time. It might be a little bit higher than 30%, but.

他們仍有時間向我們提供他們的指示。我的意思是，四月已經過去了，但人們確實需要時間。它可能比 30% 高一點，但是。

Okay. And then last one for me, what drove the 220 basis points sequential decline in Omaha occupancy?

好的。最後一個問題是，是什麼原因導致奧馬哈的入住率連續下降 220 個基點？

Yeah, as Bhairav mentioned, we did have some forced move outs there related to the last wave of value add. So when we complete value add on a turn, you get to the end of the project and you have units that may not have turned. We do non-renew those residents so that we can complete the valuation. So that that created a little bit of noise in Omaha. Bhairav mentioned that earlier.

是的，正如 Bhairav 所提到的，我們確實有一些與上一波增值相關的強制遷出。因此，當我們在一個回合中完成增值時，您就到了專案的結束，並且您可能擁有尚未轉變的單位。我們不會與這些居民續約，以便我們能夠完成估價。這在奧馬哈引起了一些騷動。Bhairav 之前提到過這一點。

Okay, all right. Thanks, guys, have a good weekend.

好的，好的。謝謝大家，祝大家週末愉快。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler

亞歷山大‧戈德法布，派珀‧桑德勒

Hey, good afternoon out there. One, I have to say, always love the strong North Dakota. That's been -- those markets have been good over the years. But my first question sort of goes against that. Given we're all learning about trade tariffs and roughly 17% of agriculture exports go to China.

嘿，大家下午好。首先，我必須說，我一直很喜歡強大的北達科他州。多年來，這些市場一直表現良好。但我的第一個問題與此相反。鑑於我們都在了解貿易關稅，大約 17% 的農產品出口到中國。

Just sort of curious how you know -- outside of Denver and Minneapolis I'm talking, how agriculture affects sort of the local economies and the markets that you're in? Is it a big impact where there's some pullback in exports that would ripple through those other upper Midwestern markets or it's pretty far away from the employment centers that drive your properties?

我只是有點好奇你怎麼知道——我說的是丹佛和明尼阿波利斯以外的地區，農業如何影響當地的經濟和你所在的地方市場？如果出口出現下滑，會對其他中西部上游市場造成連鎖反應，還是距離驅動您房產的就業中心很遠，這會產生很大的影響？

Thanks, Alex. I think it's the latter. So while there is an awful lot of agriculture as a base in states like North Dakota and even Nebraska, those aren't the drivers of the economy in the areas we're in, which is Bismarck and Grand Forks. Those are really driven by health care and education.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。我認為是後者。因此，儘管北達科他州甚至內布拉斯加州等州有大量農業基礎，但這些並不是我們所在地區（俾斯麥和大福克斯）經濟的驅動力。這些實際上是由醫療保健和教育所推動的。

Now obviously, agriculture has a big impact because they're also regional centers. So to the extent there's an impact in the outer areas or the more rural areas of those states, that is where those people would normally come for shopping, to obtain healthcare. So there's probably a little bit more of a secondary effect on the economy up there. And over time, North Dakota has shifted a little bit less agriculture and more onto the oil and gas. So the rural parts of the state are still very focused on oil and gas. But if you would like to continue to buy North Dakota pasta and sugar made from the sugar beets, that helps.

顯然，農業具有很大的影響力，因為它們也是區域中心。因此，如果這些州的偏遠地區或農村地區受到影響，那麼這些人通常會去這些地方購物、接受醫療保健。因此，這可能會對那裡的經濟產生更多的次要影響。隨著時間的推移，北達科他州逐漸減少了農業投入，轉而更專注於石油和天然氣。因此，該州的農村地區仍然非常關注石油和天然氣。但如果你想繼續購買北達科他州的麵食和用甜菜製成的糖，那會有所幫助。

I will add that to my weekend, list of activities. Going back to retention, looking historically, I appreciate that you said it jumped up to 58% in April. But over the past year, it's been sort of in the 54%. So it's been -- it seems to be trending below what your other peer REITS are. So just sort of curious, are you seeing like, either uncompetitive housing, so people can't find a house or economic nervousness as to -- it doesn't seem to be something that's in your portfolio. I'm just trying to understand the slight difference more than just a few properties in Nebraska, why your retention rates are sort of a different level than what we're seeing in the coastal and Sunbelt rates.

我會將其添加到我的周末活動清單中。回到保留率，從歷史來看，我很欣賞您所說的 4 月保留率躍升至 58%。但在過去的一年裡，這一比例一直維持在 54% 左右。所以，它的趨勢似乎低於其他同類房地產投資信託基金 (REITS)。所以我只是有點好奇，您是否看到了這樣的情況，要么是住房缺乏競爭力，所以人們找不到房子，要么是經濟緊張——這似乎不在您的投資組合之內。我只是想了解內布拉斯加州的幾處房產之間的細微差別，為什麼你們的保留率與我們在沿海地區和陽光地帶看到的保留率有所不同。

Yeah, I think one driver -- in addition to Omaha, which we already covered, one driver would be our Denver retention was lower. As we talked about that has higher supply, so there are more choices in the market. So overall, the Q1 retention in Denver was in the mid-40s. That then is offset by, really strong retention in some of our other markets.

是的，我認為除了我們已經討論過的奧馬哈之外，另一個驅動因素是我們的丹佛保留率較低。正如我們所說，供應量更高，因此市場上的選擇也更多。因此總體而言，丹佛第一季的保留率在 40% 左右。但這一差距被我們在其他一些市場的強勁保留率所抵消。

Our forecasts and guidance, includes an estimation of full-year retention at like 15, 1-5. So we're still, particularly with April running right in line with where we think, there may be some upside there we believe, but we really do, Denver being a large portfolio, it really does -- it really will help us when there's some more absorption in that market of the new products and we can get those retention rates back up.

我們的預測和指導包括全年保留率約為 15、1-5 的估計。因此，我們仍然認為，特別是四月份的業績與我們預想的完全一致，我們相信那裡可能會有一些上行空間，但我們確實認為，丹佛是一個龐大的投資組合，當該市場對新產品的吸收量增加時，它確實會對我們有所幫助，我們可以恢復這些保留率。

So the housing market, the dynamics that you're experiencing and the unaffordability, same in your markets that we're seeing in the other markets, is that right?

那麼，您所經歷的房地產市場動態和無力負擔現象，就像我們在其他市場看到的一樣，對嗎？

Yeah, I think that's right. And if you look at the investor deck, we do some work and provide some data on housing affordability across our markets. It's very similar to what you would see in some of the other markets, Sunbelt markets and coastal markets. And our people, number of residents who are moving out, who are saying they're moving out to buy a home was just 6%.

是的，我認為是這樣。如果你看一下投資人資料，你會發現我們做了一些工作，並提供了一些關於我們各個市場住房負擔能力的數據。它與您在其他一些市場、陽光地帶市場和沿海市場看到的非常相似。而我們的居民中，搬出去買房的居民數量只有 6%。

Wow, okay, thank you.

哇，好的，謝謝你。

Wes Golladay, Baird.

韋斯·戈拉迪，貝爾德。

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Going back to the solid positive inflection you're seeing for new rates in the second quarter, can you kind of talk about how you expect new lease rates to play out for the year? And has there been any change to expected lends for the year?

嘿，大家下午好。回到您看到的第二季新租賃費率的穩固正向拐點，您能否談談您對今年新租賃費率走勢的預期？今年的預期貸款有變動嗎？

Yeah, it's playing out just about how we thought it would -- Sorry, Bhairav, I'll start and then you can jump in here. It's playing out just about how we thought it would with respect to where we expected new lease rates to be, where we expect the blend to be. And we think that that will continue to improve and then taper off into the fall.

是的，事情正如我們想像的那樣發展——抱歉，Bhairav，我先開始，然後你再加入。實際情況正如我們所想的那樣，包括我們預期的新租賃率和混合率。我們認為這種情況將會繼續改善，然後在秋季逐漸減弱。

Typical seasonality would have us, back negative on new lease rates slightly towards the end of the year. We -- that's still intact. So I think we -- our original thesis of how we thought the year would progress is playing out. And we don't have any reason to, make any big changes in that, which is part of the reasons why we're affirming the guidance. So Bhairav, anything to add there?

典型的季節性因素會導致我們在年底時對新租賃利率產生輕微的負面預期。我們——它仍然完好無損。所以我認為，我們關於今年將如何發展的最初論點正在得到證實。我們沒有任何理由對此做出任何重大改變，這也是我們確認該指導方針的原因之一。那麼 Bhairav，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think you covered it. It's in line with expectations with us expecting the peak to happen in the May, June, time frame and then kind of flattening out from there before it kind of tapers off towards the end of the year. So everything that Anne said.

我想你已經涵蓋它了。這與我們預期一致，我們預計高峰將出現在五月、六月期間，然後從那裡趨於平穩，然後在年底逐漸減弱。安妮說的一切都是如此。

Got it. And what are you seeing in terms of attractive uses of capital or investment opportunities, and when would you expect to get back into acquisitions?

知道了。您認為有哪些有吸引力的資本用途或投資機會？您預計何時會重新進行收購？

We'll let Grant take that one.

我們讓格蘭特來接手這個任務。

Yeah, good afternoon, Mason. We certainly do want to take advantage of investing opportunities when it makes sense with opportunities where we can advance our strategic plan. We do like the long-term fundamentals of the mountain west, and we're going to continue to focus on ways where we can enhance the differentiated offering that we can provide in that region.

是的，下午好，梅森。當投資機會對我們推進戰略計劃有意義時，我們確實希望利用這些機會。我們確實看好山區西部的長期基本面，我們將繼續專注於如何增強我們在該地區提供的差異化產品。

For us, we really like the Colorado portfolio that we've assembled over recent years. I think our goal in any new market would be to execute in a manner consistent with our Denver and Fort Collins growth. In terms of what form does that take, acquisitions that could come with attractive embedded financing, it could be potential [mes] executions.

對我們來說，我們非常喜歡近年來組成的科羅拉多投資組合。我認為我們在任何新市場的目標都是以與丹佛和柯林斯堡的成長一致的方式執行。就其形式而言，收購可能伴隨有吸引力的嵌入式融資，這可能是潛在的執行。

It's harder to make development mes pencil today, but we continue to have those conversations. We're also talking to folks about potential mes executions on recaps of existing assets, and then we always have lines in the water on the OP unit transaction front. So we're turning over a lot of rocks, and when we find something that makes sense, we want to move on it.

如今，制定開發計劃變得更加困難，但我們仍在繼續進行這些對話。我們也在與人們討論對現有資產進行重新評估的潛在 MES 執行情況，然後我們總是在 OP 單位交易方面有所了解。因此，我們正在翻開許多石頭，當我們發現一些有意義的東西時，我們就會繼續前進。

Thanks for the color. Have a great weekend everyone.

謝謝你的顏色。祝大家週末愉快。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

There are no questions waiting at this time, so I'll pass the conference back over to the manager see for any further remarks.

目前沒有待回答的問題，因此我將把會議交還給經理，以查看是否有任何進一步的評論。

Well, thanks everyone for joining us. We hope you all have a great weekend, and we look forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks.

好吧，感謝大家加入我們。我們希望大家度過一個愉快的周末，並期待在接下來的幾週內見到你們。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may not disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您不能斷開您的線路。