Centerspace (CSR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, Centerspace's form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30th 2024 was filed with the FCC yesterday after the market closed. Additionally, our earnings release and supplemental disclosure dotcom and filed on form 8-K.

    早安,昨天收盤後,Centerspace 向 FCC 提交了截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的季度 10-Q 表格。此外,我們的收益發布和補充揭露是透過 8-K 表格提交的。

  • It's important to note that today's remarks will include statements about our business outlook and other forward-looking statements that are based on mailing under the section titled Risk factors and in our other filings with the SEC, we cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statements will materialize and you cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

    值得注意的是,今天的言論將包括有關我們業務前景的陳述和其他前瞻性陳述,這些陳述基於標題為「風險因素」部分下的郵寄以及我們向SEC 提交的其他文件中的內容,我們不能保證任何前瞻性陳述將並提醒您不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。

  • Please refer to our earnings release for reconciliations of any non-GAAP information which may be discussed on today's call.

    請參閱我們的收益發布,以了解今天電話會議上可能討論的任何非公認會計原則資訊的對帳。

  • I'll now turn it over to Centerspace's President and CEO Anne Olson for the company's prepared remarks.

    我現在將其轉交給 Centerspace 總裁兼執行長 Anne Olson,以獲取該公司準備好的發言稿。

  • Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

    Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

  • Good morning everyone. And thank you for joining Centerspace's third quarter. Earnings call with me this morning are Bav Patel, our Chief Financial Officer and Graham Campbell, our senior Vice President of Investments and capital markets. Before taking your questions, we will briefly cover our results and discuss our outlook for the remainder of 2024.

    大家早安。感謝您加入 Centerspace 第三季度。今天早上與我一起參加財報電話會議的是我們的首席財務官巴夫·帕特爾 (Bav Patel) 和我們負責投資和資本市場的高級副總裁 Graham Campbell。在回答您的問題之前,我們將簡要介紹我們的結果並討論我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的展望。

  • We have a lot of good news to share starting with earnings of a dollar 18 per share of core ffo for the third quarter, driven by stable revenue growth and expense control initiatives. We continue to improve and simplify our balance sheet. And subsequent to quarter end, we expanded our presence in the Denver market, the nation of attractive long term assumed mortgage debt and the issuance of both key units at a premium to our stock price grant will share more about that transaction momentarily.

    我們有很多好消息要分享,在穩定的營收成長和費用控制舉措的推動下,第三季核心 FFO 每股收益為 18 美元。我們繼續改進和簡化我們的資產負債表。在季度末之後,我們擴大了在丹佛市場的影響力,這個國家擁有有吸引力的長期抵押貸款債務,並且以高於我們股價的溢價發行這兩個關鍵單位,將暫時分享更多有關該交易的訊息。

  • I will discuss our quarterly trends for the third quarter. Same store revenue increased 3% over the same period in 2023 we are proud of this growth on top of the 2023 growth we achieved which was at the high end of the multi family public peer group, same store new lease trade outs are seasonally slowing down 1.2% while renewal leases increased by 3.2% resulting in 1.5% blended lease increases for the quarter.

    我將討論第三季的季度趨勢。同店營收較 2023 年同期成長 3%,我們對此成長感到自豪,而我們在 2023 年實現的成長處於多戶公共同業群體的高端,同店新租賃交易額季節性放緩1.2%,而續租租賃增加3.2%,導致本季混合租賃增加1.5%。

  • Importantly, we achieved these results while also increasing occupancy to 95.3% which is a 70 basis point improvement over the same period last year.

    重要的是,我們在取得這些成果的同時,也將入住率提高至 95.3%,比去年同期提高了 70 個基點。

  • Maintaining occupancy above 95% has been an objective for us and that focus does have a trade off relative to new lease pricing. I'll caution against extrapolating our quarter over quarter, leasing results given both the seasonality and our prioritization of occupancy.

    將入住率維持在 95% 以上一直是我們的目標,但這一重點確實與新租賃定價有關。考慮到季節性和我們的入住優先順序,我要提醒大家不要推斷我們的季度租賃結果。

  • Much of our portfolio footprint has experienced lower supply than national averages. And our results benefited from that during the quarter, North Dakota communities continue to lead the portfolio with blended spreads of 5.4%. While our Nebraska community also saw strong blended growth at 3.3%.

    我們的大部分投資組合足跡的供應量低於全國平均。我們的業績得益於本季度北達科他州社區繼續以 5.4% 的混合利差領先投資組合。而我們的內布拉斯加社區也實現了 3.3% 的強勁綜合成長。

  • I'd like to highlight our largest market of Minneapolis where we recognize 1.2% blended rent increases. Minneapolis once again ranked among the strongest absorption markets nationally in the quarter. After several years of outside supply here, the recent absorption and lower anticipated future deliveries should act as a tailwind for our portfolio.

    我想強調我們最大的市場明尼阿波利斯,我們承認該市場的混合租金上漲了 1.2%。明尼阿波利斯再次躋身本季全國吸收能力最強的市場。經過幾年的外部供應後,最近的吸收和較低的預期未來交付量應該成為我們投資組合的推動力。

  • Resident retention remains elevated at over 58% for the quarter which has helped drive occupancy and bolsters our blended leasing spreads during the seasonally slower months. Resident health remains strong though up slightly from last year, bad debt year-to-date is trending similar to historical norms and rent to income levels remain sustainable at 23% renting compared to the increased cost of homeownership remains a compelling value for our residents across our markets as a reflection of our operating results and our capital markets activity. We are raising the midpoint of our full year core FFO guidance by a penny to $4.86 per share. While our revenue results have trended to the low end of our initial guidance. Expectations for 2024 there are assets on the expense side that result in positive no I growth and we are getting that to the bottom line. These include items directly related to revenue such as lower utility expense and turnover costs, as well as savings from leveraging technology and centralizing certain property management functions.

    本季度居民保留率仍保持在 58% 以上的高位,這有助於提高入住率,並在季節性淡季月份期間提高我們的混合租賃利差。儘管比去年略有上升,但居民健康狀況仍然強勁,今年迄今的壞帳趨勢與歷史正常水平相似,租金與收入水平的比仍然可持續在23%,與住房擁有成本的增加相比,租金對我們各地的居民來說仍然是一個令人信服的價值我們的市場反映了我們的經營業績和資本市場活動。我們將全年核心 FFO 指引的中點提高一美分,至每股 4.86 美元。雖然我們的收入結果已趨向於我們最初指導的低端。對 2024 年的預期是,支出方面的資產將導致正成長,我們正在將其納入底線。其中包括與收入直接相關的項目,例如較低的公用事業費用和周轉成本,以及利用技術和集中某些物業管理職能所節省的費用。

  • In the third quarter, we issued approximately 1.5 million shares on our ATM raising $105 million proceeds were used to redeem the entirety of our series C preferred shares. The opportunity to both simplify our capital structure and improve our balance sheet while improving cash flow and share liquidity was attractive. But we are mindful of our valuation and intend to remain disciplined about our capital markets activities.

    第三季度,我們在 ATM 上發行了約 150 萬股股票,籌集的 1.05 億美元收益用於贖回我們的全部 C 系列優先股。在改善現金流量和股票流動性的同時簡化我們的資本結構和改善資產負債表的機會很有吸引力。但我們關注我們的估值,並打算對我們的資本市場活動保持紀律。

  • As we sit today, we feel very well positioned to advance our vision to be a premier provider of apartment homes and vibrant communities and drive consistent earnings growth for our investors. Part of that vision includes a new community, the Lydian and I'll turn things over to grant to discuss that acquisition and the transaction market more broadly, grant.

    當我們今天坐下來時,我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置,可以推進我們成為公寓住宅和充滿活力社區的一流提供者的願景,並為我們的投資者推動持續的盈利增長。這個願景的一部分包括一個新的社區,即呂底亞人,我將把事情交給格蘭特,以更廣泛地討論該收購和交易市場,格蘭特。

  • Grant P. Campbell - Senior Vice President - Investments

    Grant P. Campbell - Senior Vice President - Investments

  • Thanks Dan and good morning.

    謝謝丹,早安。

  • Earlier this month, we completed the acquisition of the Lydian in Denver. This 129 home community also features 23,000 square feet of fully leased commercial and street level retail space with front door access to a light rail station.

    本月早些時候,我們完成了對丹佛 Lydian 的收購。這個擁有 129 個住宅的社區還擁有 23,000 平方英尺的完全出租的商業和街道零售空間,前門可通往輕軌站。

  • The 2018 built property is located within 1.5 miles of three other center space communities providing opportunity to leverage our geographically proximate operating platform and broader Denver portfolio scale.

    該項目於 2018 年建成,距離其他三個中心空間社區不到 1.5 英里,為利用我們地理位置鄰近的營運平台和更廣泛的丹佛投資組合規模提供了機會。

  • We are excited to add the Lydian to our portfolio and introduce our operating platform with implementation of best practices.

    我們很高興將 Lydian 添加到我們的產品組合中,並推出我們實施最佳實踐的操作平台。

  • After execution of our business plan, we expect the community to generate an no I yield in the mid to high 5% range. The Lydian also provided us a financial structure that advanced external growth at attractive terms. Specifically, our purchase was funded via the assumption of attractive long term mortgage debt with a balance of $35 million at a 3.72% interest rate maturing in 2037 along with the issuance of common operating partnership units at $76.42 per unit.

    執行我們的業務計劃後,我們預計社區將產生 5% 中高範圍的無 I 收益率。呂底亞人也為我們提供了一種金融結構,能夠以有吸引力的條件促進外部成長。具體來說,我們的購買資金是透過假設有吸引力的長期抵押貸款債務(餘額為3500 萬美元,利率為3.72%,將於2037 年到期)以及以每單位76.42 美元的價格發行共同營運合夥單位來提供經費的。

  • Additionally, the community is part of a tax increment financing district where we anticipate receiving over $6 million of principal and interest payments funded by the real estate taxes we pay on the property over the duration of the tip agreement looking at the transaction market more broadly, we continue to see thawing in the market with both a smaller GAAP between buyer and seller expectations and higher levels of conviction from buyers leading to increased liquidity and investor demand.

    此外,該社區是增稅融資區的一部分,從更廣泛的交易市場來看,我們預計將在小費協議期間收到超過600 萬美元的本金和利息,這些本金和利息由我們在小費協議期間對房產繳納的房地產稅提供資金,我們繼續看到市場解凍,買家和賣家預期之間的公認會計原則較小,而買家的信念較高,導致流動性和投資者需求增加。

  • Our belief is transaction volume will continue increasing and more actionable opportunities will present themselves to the market as we move into 2025.

    我們相信,進入 2025 年,交易量將繼續增加,更多可行的機會將出現在市場上。

  • We want to take advantage of growth opportunities when they align with our strategic initiatives on the pricing side. Well located higher quality communities in markets such as Denver have recently been trading at 4.75% to 5% cap rates with 23% of our no I coming from this market. This highlights the attractive relative valuation at which our stock currently trades demand for apartments remains strong. And on the supply side, we are past the peak of new deliveries in each of our largest markets and construction starts have declined materially as all our markets move into the net absorption phase with deliveries tapering. We are excited for our future growth potential.

    當成長機會與我們在定價方面的策略舉措一致時,我們希望抓住它們。丹佛等市場中位置優越的優質社區最近的交易上限為 4.75% 至 5%,其中 23% 的 No I 來自該市場。這凸顯了我們的股票目前交易的相對估值有吸引力,公寓需求仍然強勁。在供應方面,我們每個最大市場的新交付高峰已經過去,隨著所有市場進入淨吸收階段,交付量逐漸減少,開工率大幅下降。我們對未來的成長潛力感到興奮。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to bav to discuss our overall financial results and outlook for the remainder of 2024.

    接下來,我將把它交給 bav,討論我們的整體財務表現和 2024 年剩餘時間的前景。

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks Grant and good morning everyone. Last night, we reported core off of $1.18 per diluted share for the third quarter driven by a 2.8% year to year increase in same store ny revenues from same store communities increased by 3% compared to the third quarter of 2023 driven by a 2.2% increase in revenue per occupied home and a 70 basis point year to year increase in rated average occupancy which stood at 95.3% for the quarter.

    謝謝格蘭特,大家早安。昨晚,我們報告第三季稀釋後每股核心折扣為 1.18 美元,原因是紐約同店社區收入年增 2.8%,較 2023 年第三季增長 2.2% 增長 3%每戶住宅收入增加,額定平均入住率年增70 個基點,本季達95.3%。

  • The store expenses were up by 3.2% year over year driven by higher non controllable expenses with nonreimbursable losses and insurance premiums. As the primary drivers of year over year growth controllable expenses, growth remained muted up only 80 basis points compared to Q3 last year as savings and repairs and maintenance and on site compensation were offset by increased administrative and marketing spend.

    由於不可補償損失和保險費等不可控費用增加,門市費用年增 3.2%。作為同比成長的主要驅動力,可控支出與去年第三季相比,成長仍然微弱,僅增加了 80 個基點,因為節省、維修和維護以及現場補償被行政和行銷支出的增加所抵消。

  • Turning to guidance, we updated our 2024 expectations in last night's press release, we now expect core ffo of $4.86 at the midpoint which is an increase of 1¢ compared to our prior expectations and an increase of 6¢ versus our initial guidance released in February.

    談到指引,我們在昨晚的新聞稿中更新了2024 年的預期,我們現在預計核心FFO 中點為4.86 美元,比我們之前的預期增加1 美分,比我們2 月份發布的初步指引增加6美分。

  • We are maintaining the midpoint of year over year same store growth guidance at 3.5% while lowering our expectations for both revenue growth and expense growth with market rent softening more than expected. Same store revenues are now projected to increase 3% to 3.5% for the year. The decline in revenue is projected to be offset by lower growth in same store expenses which are now projected to increase by 2.5% to 3.25%.

    我們將同店成長指導中位數維持在 3.5%,同時降低了對收入成長和費用成長的預期,市場租金軟化幅度超出預期。目前預計今年同店營收將成長 3% 至 3.5%。預計收入下降將被同店支出成長放緩所抵消,同店支出預計將成長 2.5% 至 3.25%。

  • Moving on to other components of guidance. We now expect G&A and property management expenses for the year to range between 26.5 million to 27 million and interest expense to range between 37.3 million to 37.6 million.

    繼續指導的其他組成部分。我們目前預計今年的一般管理費用和物業管理費用將在 2,650 萬至 2,700 萬之間,利息費用將在 3,730 萬至 3,760 萬之間。

  • Increased interest expenses primarily driven by the debt assumed in conjunction with the Lydian acquisition.

    利息支出增加主要是因為收購 Lydian 時所承擔的債務所致。

  • Our expectations regarding value add spend and seems to a recurring CapEx per unit are unchanged after the Lydian. No additional acquisitions dispositions, issuances or borrowings are factored into our guidance on the capital front. As Ann noted, we have taken a series of steps to further strengthen our balance sheet.

    我們對增值支出的預期以及每單位經常性資本支出在呂底亞事件後似乎沒有變化。我們在資本方面的指導中沒有考慮額外的收購處置、發行或借款。正如安指出的那樣,我們採取了一系列措施來進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

  • We sold nearly 1.6 million shares year-to-date under our ATM program raising gross proceeds of nearly $114 million.

    今年迄今為止,我們根據 ATM 計劃出售了近 160 萬股股票,籌集了近 1.14 億美元的總收益。

  • These proceeds were used to both retire the series C preferred and decrease the balance on our line of credit.

    這些收益用於收回 C 系列優先股並減少我們的信用額度餘額。

  • While we will always be mindful of the impact of equity issuance, the coupon and interest rate respectively on these were both in the mid to high 6% range issuing equity in a manner that improved both our cash flow per share and our leverage profile was a logical choice.

    雖然我們將始終關注股票發行的影響,但這些股票的票面利率和利率分別處於 6% 的中高範圍內,發行股票的方式改善了我們的每股現金流和槓桿狀況。

  • The redemption of the series C preferred alone is expected to increase our cash flow per year by roughly $2.3 million based on the implied dividend yield of approximately 4.2% on our common stock relative to the 6.6% coupon on the preferred stock we redeemed combined with the recast of our line of credit which we announced last quarter. We have a well laddered debt maturity schedule that performer for the leading acquisition as a rated average cost of 3.61% and a rated average time to maturity of 5.9 years to conclude, it was a very active and productive quarter across the board. We achieved strong operating results. Strengthened our balance sheet, simplified our capital structure and expanded our portfolio in one of our desired markets, we look forward to sustaining this momentum as we close out 2024. And with that, I will turn the line back to the operator for your questions.

    根據我們普通股約4.2% 的隱含股息收益率(相對於我們贖回的優先股6.6% 的票息率),僅贖回C 系列優先股預計將使我們每年的現金流增加約230 萬美元。我們有一個良好的階梯式債務到期時間表,領先收購的評級平均成本為 3.61%,評級平均到期時間為 5.9 年,總的來說,這是一個非常活躍和富有成效的季度。我們取得了強勁的經營業績。加強了我們的資產負債表,簡化了我們的資本結構,並擴大了我們在我們想要的市場之一的投資組合,我們期待在 2024 年結束時保持這一勢頭。然後,我會將電話轉回給接線員詢問您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much to ask a question. Please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Now when prepping to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two.

    非常感謝您提出問題。請按電話鍵盤上的星號,然後按一。現在,當準備提問時,請確保您的裝置在本地已取消靜音。如果您改變主意,請按星號,然後按兩個。

  • Our first question comes from Brad Heffern with RBC capital market, Brad, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

    我們的第一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Brad Heffern,Brad,您的線路現已開放。請繼續。

  • Brad Heffern - Analyst

    Brad Heffern - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you morning everyone. You mentioned market rent softening more than expected. Is that also a greater softening than the normal seasonal trend? And what would you attribute.

    是的,謝謝大家早安。您提到市場租金的疲軟程度超乎預期。這是否也比正常的季節性趨勢更疲軟?你會歸因什麼。

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Good Morning Brad? Thanks. I think we it is more than we expected more than the seasonal expectation that we had just slightly more as you know, we always expect that they soften at this time of year. They had, they happened a little bit earlier. We talked about that last quarter. We really saw the peak leasing in May and I think we attribute it mostly to the supply demand and this is just against our expectations. But I think as we look at, we're, you know, across our market where they are, I think our expectations for the year were just a little bit higher.

    早安,布拉德?謝謝。我認為我們的預期超出了我們的預期,正如您所知,我們的預期略多一些,我們總是預期它們在每年的這個時候會軟化。他們有,他們發生得更早一些。我們上個季度討論過這個問題。我們確實在五月看到了租賃高峰,我認為我們將其主要歸因於供應需求,但這與我們的預期相反。但我認為,當我們審視我們的整個市場時,我認為我們對今年的預期只是高了一點。

  • Brad Heffern - Analyst

    Brad Heffern - Analyst

  • Okay, got it. And then maybe for Rob just looking at the, the new revenue growth guidance, it implies a pretty substantial drop. Q3 to Q4, something like going from 3 to 1.6 plus or minus. The over year comps actually look a little easier and I assume you don't have many leases expiring anyway. So I'm just curious what would lead to that large of a drop.

    好的,明白了。然後,也許對羅伯來說,新的收入成長指導,這意味著相當大的下降。Q3 到 Q4,就像從 3 到 1.6 加或減。過去一年的比較實際上看起來更容易一些,而且我認為無論如何你也沒有多少租約到期。所以我只是好奇什麼會導致這麼大的下降。

  • Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

    Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

  • Yes, morning Brad. So with respect to revenues guidance at the midpoint, we would, you know, we'd expect to report about 0.5% to 3% for revenue growth at the midpoint. Our blended assumption is really flat for the quarter on a year over year basis. We do expect some rubs favorability as we have baked in a slightly higher utilities cost in in, in our Q4 numbers. And, and additionally, we also have less concessions we expect to utilize in this quarter as we bolstered occupancy going into it percent ny growth at the midpoint is really driven by expenses mainly on the noncontrollable side with, you know, with insurance premiums and losses expected to be pretty high compared to last year.

    是的,早安,布拉德。因此,就中點收入指引而言,我們預計會報告中點收入成長約 0.5% 至 3%。我們的混合假設本季與去年同期相比確實持平。我們確實預計會出現一些負面影響,因為我們在第四季度的數據中考慮了公用事業成本略高的情況。此外,我們預計在本季度使用的優惠也較少,因為我們提高了入住率,中間點的增長實際上是由不可控方面的支出驅動的,你知道,包括保險費和損失與去年相比,預計會相當高。

  • Brad Heffern - Analyst

    Brad Heffern - Analyst

  • Okay. And then last for me, do you have any preliminary read on the October leasing stats?

    好的。最後,您對 10 月份的租賃統計數據有什麼初步了解嗎?

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, we, we it's very early in the month. You know, we are cut off, we usually allow some time after a date. So there, I think reflected in the guidance as, as BAV said, we did bring the revenue down. We we do believe that the blended will be flat. So new leases have remained slightly negative and renewals have remained slightly positive.

    是的,我們,我們現在是這個月初。你知道,我們的聯繫被切斷了,我們通常會在約會後留出一些時間。因此,我認為這反映在指導中,正如 BAV 所說,我們確實降低了收入。我們確實相信混合後會平坦。因此,新租約保持小幅負值,續租保持小幅正值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Thank you. Our next question is from John Kim with BMO, John. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

    謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 John Kim,約翰。您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

  • John Kim - Analyst

    John Kim - Analyst

  • Thank you. So for your third quarter lease results just trying to isolate September, it looks like new lease rates were down 3% renewals below three blended of roughly plus 80 basis points. And now you're saying that it's going to go flat or expected to go flat in the fourth quarter. So what components between new new leases and renewals are driving that number lower?

    謝謝。因此,對於您試圖孤立 9 月的第三季租賃結果,看起來新租賃率下降了 3%,續約率低於三個混合的約 80 個基點。現在你說第四季將持平或預計持平。那麼,新租約和續租之間的哪些因素導致這個數字下降呢?

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey John.

    嘿約翰。

  • So with respect to fourth quarters, expectations, we expect renewals to average somewhere in the mid twos and we expect new leases to average a negative you know, mid to rate on, on the trade outs. That's why it's balancing our expectation with respect to renewals is 50%. That's what's driving our base case.

    因此,就第四季度的預期而言,我們預計續約平均在兩季左右,我們預計新租約在交易中平均為負數,中間為負值。這就是為什麼它平衡了我們對續訂的預期為 50%。這就是我們基本情況的驅動力。

  • Expectations.

    期望。

  • John Kim - Analyst

    John Kim - Analyst

  • And do you have a view on what your earning is going to be for next year? Is it too early to determine?

    您對明年的收入有什麼看法嗎?現在確定還太早嗎?

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • It's, you know, we're working through it at this point, you know, the year and for this year is close to 2.4% with respect to next year, it's going to be less than 1% at this point. But we're working through our estimates. And, and that can change as a as a leasing trends evolve.

    你知道,我們現在正在解決這個問題,你知道,今年的成長率接近 2.4%,而明年的成長率將低於 1%。但我們正在研究我們的估計。而且,隨著租賃趨勢的發展,這種情況可能會改變。

  • John Kim - Analyst

    John Kim - Analyst

  • Just really quickly on the Denver acquisition, you guys mentioned a mid to high 5% yield. Once you stabilize the asset under your new platform, how long will it take to get to that level? And if you can comment on the going in cap rate?

    在丹佛收購中,你們很快就提到了 5% 的中高收益率。一旦你在新平台下穩定了資產,需要多長時間才能達到這個水平?您能否對資本化率進行評論?

  • Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

    Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

  • Yeah, good morning John, this is grant from a going in perspective.

    是的,早上好,約翰,從深入的角度來看,這是授予。

  • No, I yield there is a blended five.

    不,我發現有一個混合的五個。

  • We think the operational best practices and operating initiatives that we alluded to in the prepared remarks. You know, some of those are, you know, 1st 90 to 120 day items in terms of the the service that we provide to the residents on a day to day basis. And then there's other items, you know, related to things like potential property tax savings mark to market rents as you roll through the lease expiration schedule that you know, will take 12 to 18 months. So kind of two different buckets, but you know, really looking at kind of 18 months for holistic implementation.

    我們認為我們在準備好的演講中提到了最佳營運實踐和營運措施。您知道,就我們每天向居民提供的服務而言,其中一些是第 90 至 120 天的項目。然後還有其他項目,您知道,與潛在的財產稅節省相關,當您滾動您知道的租賃到期時間表時,按市場租金計算,這將需要 12 到 18 個月的時間。這是兩個不同的階段,但你知道,整體實​​施確實需要 18 個月的時間。

  • John Kim - Analyst

    John Kim - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thanks everyone.

    好的,太好了。謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler, Connor. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

    我們的下一個問題來自康納·米切爾和派珀·桑德勒,康納。您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

  • Connor Mitchell - Analyst

    Connor Mitchell - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So it sounds like retention rates might be a little bit higher in the quarter than they have previously. Could you just kind of give us some more color on why you might think that the retention rates are higher, what might be driving them this year or the quarter. And then finally, just, do you guys plan on disclosing turnover or retention in the supplemental in the future?

    嘿,早安。感謝您提出我的問題。因此,聽起來本季的保留率可能會比之前高一些。您能否給我們更多信息,說明為什麼您可能認為保留率更高,以及今年或本季度的推動因素是什麼。最後,你們是否計劃在未來的補充中揭露營業額或留任率?

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • That's a good question, Connor, we are always looking for ways to enhance our supplemental. So we'll note that down and consider that for future publications with respect to the retention rates being higher. We're, you know, in month 18 of seeing higher retention rates across last year, they were slightly higher and, and year-to-date, they've, they've been higher. We've also see the traffic pattern. It's showing that people are looking earlier than they had been in the past. And so I think some of that is a more choice in the markets, right? Supply has people out looking and, and making decisions a little bit earlier. And then also, you know, we have seen a pretty dramatic drop of across the industry and people leaving to buy home and with the high cost of housing, you know, renting as a necessity is affecting more a larger percentage of the population. And, and we have a lot of renters in, in that category, you know, our average rents are you know, right around $1600 just below $1600. So, you know, most of our residents were two or three years ago or pre COVID may have been looking to move out to buy a house. That percentage was about 25% that's fall into 12% to 15% post COVID. So I think that is impacting our retention rates.

    這是一個很好的問題,康納,我們一直在尋找增強我們的補充的方法。因此,我們會注意到這一點,並考慮在未來的出版物中保留率更高。你知道,我們在去年的第 18 個月看到了更高的保留率,它們略高,而今年到目前為止,它們已經更高了。我們也看到了流量模式。這顯示人們的目光比過去更早。所以我認為其中一些是市場上的更多選擇,對嗎?供應讓人們更早尋找並做出決定。然後,你知道,我們看到整個行業的人數大幅下降,人們離開去買房,而且由於住房成本高昂,租房作為一種必需品正在影響更大比例的人口。而且,我們有很多這類租戶,我們的平均租金約為 1600 美元,略低於 1600 美元。所以,你知道,我們的大多數居民在兩三年前或在新冠疫情之前可能一直在考慮搬出去買房子。比例約為 25%,新冠疫情後下降至 12% 至 15%。所以我認為這正在影響我們的保留率。

  • Connor Mitchell - Analyst

    Connor Mitchell - Analyst

  • Okay? And then just kind of along the same lines as you kind of think about the retention rates and balance renewals with new leases. Could you guys just give us some color on kind of how you, how you think about pricing renewals, whether that's all the way up to market or maybe partially just to offset any leasing costs for new leases instead any, any color you might have, there would be helpful.

    好的?然後就像你考慮保留率和平衡續租與新租約一樣。你們能否給我們一些關於您如何看待續約定價的信息,無論是完全按照市場定價還是部分只是為了抵消新租賃的任何租賃成本,而不是您可能擁有的任何顏色,會有幫助的。

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, sure. Connor.

    是的,當然。康納。

  • We take the approach that, you know, lease new renewal pricing goes out 75 days before the renewal actually happens. And during that time, you know, we want to make that price competitive, but it really depends property by property and lease by lease, how far that individual resident is away from market. So if they're only 5% away from market, we might take that renewal all the way to market it. You know, if they're 20% away from market, they, they might go up 10, if they're above market, they might be you know, coming down slightly. So we want to make that renewal pricing attractive both because it offsets turn costs. But also because having those renewals, you know, committed to having people that are committing to staying there, helps us set the new pricing in order to maximize total overall revenue. So if we really push hard on renewals, we risk that less people renew and then the new lease pricing softens more. So we really take the approach that we're trying to maximize overall revenue. We do factor in that there are costs associated with, with turning the residents. And you know, so we're really focused on giving the best resident experience to make them want to stay with us and also providing the best value when we approach pricing.

    我們採取的方法是,新的租賃續約價格會在續訂實際發生前 75 天生效。在那段時間裡,我們希望使價格具有競爭力,但這實際上取決於各個物業和各個租賃,以及個別居民距離市場有多遠。因此,如果它們距離市場只有 5%,我們可能會透過更新將其推向市場。你知道,如果他們距離市場 20%,他們可能會上漲 10%,如果他們高於市場,他們可能會小幅下跌。因此,我們希望使續訂定價具有吸引力,因為它可以抵消週轉成本。但也因為有了這些續約,你知道,致力於讓那些願意留在那裡的人,幫助我們設定新的定價,以最大限度地提高總收入。因此,如果我們真的大力推動續租,我們面臨的風險是續租人數會減少,然後新的租賃定價會更加軟化。因此,我們確實採取了努力最大化整體收入的方法。我們確實考慮到與居民的轉變相關的成本。你知道,所以我們真正專注於提供最好的居民體驗,讓他們願意留在我們這裡,並在我們定價時提供最好的價值。

  • Connor Mitchell - Analyst

    Connor Mitchell - Analyst

  • Okay, very helpful and then maybe just one quick one for bav as well. You guys talked about like forecasting utilities which drives expenses and revenue for for rubs. Just kind of a big picture wondering when you guys are looking at the forecasted utilities, does it essentially net out for earnings or how impactful might we think about it for, for earnings in terms of revenue and expenses to the bottom line?

    好的,非常有幫助,也許也可以為 bav 提供一個快速的幫助。你們談到了預測公用事業,這會導致支出和收入增加。只是想知道當你們查看預測的公用事業時,它是否本質上是淨收益,或者我們會考慮它對收入和支出對底線的收益有多大影響?

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So with respect to utilities, we pass through 80% of gas utilities and most of the other utilities cost. So for the most part, we feel like we're hedged, although when you look at our our P&L you'll see revenues coming through in the form of rubs, and the expenses going up in the form of expenses. So there's a, a gross up on, on the income statement. But for the most part, given the amount we charge through, we feel like we're pretty well hedged, especially on the gas side, which we rolled out about a year, year and a half ago where we passed to 80% of the cost.

    當然。因此,就公用事業而言,我們承擔了 80% 的天然氣公用事業費用和大部分其他公用事業費用。因此,在大多數情況下,我們感覺我們被對沖了,儘管當你查看我們的損益表時,你會看到收入以摩擦的形式出現,而支出以費用的形式增加。因此,損益表上有一個總計。但在大多數情況下,考慮到我們收取的金額,我們覺得我們的對沖能力相當好,尤其是在天然氣方面,我們大約一年半前推出了這一項目,我們通過了 80% 的成本。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Connor Mitchell - Analyst

    Connor Mitchell - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Cooper Clark with Wells Fargo Cooper. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行庫柏的庫柏克拉克。您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

  • Cooper Clark - Analyst

    Cooper Clark - Analyst

  • Hello. Thank you for taking the question. Just wanted to ask about some of the moving pieces as it relates to your insurance renewal coming up in mid to late November, wondering what type of growth you're expecting and how much wildfire concerns in Denver may have an impact.

    你好。感謝您提出問題。只是想詢問一些與 11 月中下旬的保險續保相關的動態問題,想知道您預期的增長類型以及丹佛的野火問題可能會產生多少影響。

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Morning Cooper. Yeah, we are in the in the final stages for renewal. We don't really have any definitive color to provide. You know, initially we had expected a pretty favorable renewal cycle. However, some of the recent activity, especially the the storms in in in Florida may have an impact as as carriers are kind of estimating their, their exposure there. We haven't heard anything specific about the wildfires in Denver yet. Although we are waiting with data of breath to find out, you know what the the renewal looks like early indications were again, as I said, very favorable, but the recent activity may have some impact, but hopefully we'll be able to report something on that front soon we do renew in the next month or so. So we're in the final stages of that.

    早上庫柏。是的,我們正處於更新的最後階段。我們確實沒有任何確定的顏色可以提供。你知道,最初我們預計會有一個相當有利的更新周期。然而,最近的一些活動,尤其是佛羅裡達州的風暴可能會產生影響,因為營運商正在估計他們在那裡的暴露程度。我們還沒有聽到有關丹佛野火的任何具體消息。雖然我們正在等待呼吸數據來找出答案,但正如我所說,早期跡象再次非常有利,但最近的活動可能會產生一些影響,但希望我們能夠報告這方面的事情很快我們就會在下個月左右更新。所以我們正處於最後階段。

  • Cooper Clark - Analyst

    Cooper Clark - Analyst

  • Awesome, thank you. And then just as one follow up wondering if you could provide an update on where bad debt was for the quarter and any color on certain markets where you may have more elevated levels of bad debt.

    太棒了,謝謝。然後,正如一位跟進者想知道您是否可以提供本季度壞帳情況的最新情況以及某些市場的壞帳水平可能更高的顏色。

  • Certainly. For the for the third quarter, we were about 45 to 50 basis points in in terms of bad debt from a year-to-date perspective that puts us towards the high end of our expected range of 30 to 40 basis points and we're expecting the same levels to continue. As we look across markets, there aren't really any broader trends to glean from any of our markets. I think it's just kind of relatively spread out across our market. So nothing specific you know, with respect to a market or two. That's worth noting.

    當然。從年初至今的角度來看,第三季的壞帳約為 45 至 50 個基點,這使我們接近 30 至 40 個基點的預期範圍的高端,我們預計同樣的水平將持續下去。當我們縱觀整個市場時,我們的任何一個市場實際上都沒有任何更廣泛的趨勢可供收集。我認為它在我們的市場中相對分散。因此,對於一兩個市場,您一無所知。這是值得注意的。

  • Awesome. Thank you.

    驚人的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Rob Stevenson with Janney Rob. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Stevenson 和 Janney Rob。您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

  • Rob Stevenson - Analyst

    Rob Stevenson - Analyst

  • Good morning guys. And was the new lease growth of negative 1.2% in the third quarter driven mainly by Minneapolis and Denver or was that fairly widespread across the portfolio and any markets where new lease growth was still meaningfully positive for you guys?

    早安,夥計們。第三季新租賃成長負 1.2% 是主要由明尼阿波利斯和丹佛推動的,還是在整個投資組合以及新租賃成長對你們來說仍然有意義的任何市場中相當普遍?

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, good morning, Rob. I'd say, you know, we're still seeing a lot of strength in our North Dakota markets and across Nebraska. But generally all the market slow down right now. So the drivers are, you know, we are seeing a bigger decline in Denver, Minneapolis and then other Mountain West, typically the markets that had, that's a market that's rapid city and Billings where we saw, you know, tremendously growth during COVID. And so there has been some leveling out in that market. That's led those to be a little more negative than others, but we are still seeing strong growth, you know, really North Dakota where we've had no supply. And then also across the Nebraska markets.

    是的,早安,羅布。我想說,你知道,我們在北達科他州市場和整個內布拉斯加州仍然看到很大的實力。但總體而言,目前所有市場都在放緩。所以驅動因素是,你知道,我們看到丹佛、明尼阿波利斯和其他西部山區的市場出現了更大的下降,通常是那些快速發展的城市和比林斯的市場,你知道,在新冠疫情期間,我們看到了巨大的成長。因此,該市場出現了一些趨於平穩的情況。這導致這些市場比其他市場更加負面,但我們仍然看到強勁的成長,你知道,實際上是北達科他州,那裡我們沒有供應。然後還有內布拉斯加州市場。

  • Rob Stevenson - Analyst

    Rob Stevenson - Analyst

  • Okay. And then what technology savings on the expense side are still left for you guys to realize and how much additional spend over the next 18 months? Are you anticipating for your various tech programs going forward?

    好的。那麼,在費用方面還有哪些技術節省還有待你們意識到,以及在接下來的 18 個月內需要多少額外支出?您對未來的各種科技項目有預期嗎?

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, that's a great question. We have really fully implemented all of the technology stack that we're currently looking at. So I'd say that from an expense side that is behind us. The exception to that would be the smart rent implementation which we really consider value add about 70% of our portfolio has the smart rent implemented fully in it and we plan to identify additional properties for 2025. So, but with respect to efficiencies on the operating side, really, we're looking at adoption and then how our staffing models can change given the implementation and adoption of that technology. And like, like a lot of companies across the industry, we have centralized certain positions within our property teams. So rather than have an assistant community manager at every asset, we now have those you know, regional remote positions. So we're really trying to look forward and say, what are the other impacts that the implementation that we did with technology? What do those have on staffing models, operations, you know, data efficiencies and moving forward there. So we're still harnessing some of those. I think next year will be the you know, we'll probably see a true full year of savings from a staffing model implementation.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我們確實完全實現了我們目前正在研究的所有技術堆疊。所以我想說的是,從我們後面的費用來看。例外情況是智慧租金的實施,我們確實認為它會帶來增值,我們的投資組合中約 70% 的產品已完全實施智慧租金,我們計劃在 2025 年確定更多房產。因此,但就營運方面的效率而言,實際上,我們正​​在考慮採用,以及考慮到該技術的實施和採用,我們的人員配置模型如何改變。就像整個行業的許多公司一樣,我們在我們的房地產團隊中集中了某些職位。因此,我們現在不再為每項資產配備一名助理社區經理,而是配備了您所知道的區域遠端職位。因此,我們真的很想展望未來,並說,我們使用科技實施的其他影響是什麼?這些對人員配置模型、營運、數據效率和未來發展有何影響。所以我們仍在利用其中的一些。我認為明年將是您知道的,我們可能會看到人員配置模型實施帶來真正的全年節省。

  • Rob Stevenson - Analyst

    Rob Stevenson - Analyst

  • Okay. That's great. And then last one for me, given your current no I contribution from Denver Post Lydian acquisition. How are you thinking about future acquisitions in that market? Are you going to be comfortable taking that up into the 30s like Minneapolis and given your comments on cap rates in Denver, would you look to maybe sell an existing Denver asset in order to buy another one with more upside? And so how are you guys thinking about the optimal size and exposure of your Denver portfolio going forward?

    好的。那太棒了。然後是我的最後一個,考慮到您目前對丹佛郵報 Lydian 收購的貢獻。您如何看待該市場未來的收購?您是否願意像明尼阿波利斯一樣將其上升到30 年代,並考慮到您對丹佛資本化率的評論,您是否會考慮出售現有的丹佛資產,以購買另一項具有更大上漲空間的資產?那麼,你們如何考慮丹佛投資組合未來的最佳規模和風險敞口?

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, this is something we think a lot about. We are seeing more and more opportunities in Denver. You know, with operations like we have in Minneapolis and Denver come opportunities and while we like that, you know, we really need through external growth like the Lydian in other markets so that we could grow out of that, we are, you know, actively looking in markets across the mountain and seeking out opportunities. So, you know, ideally, we would like those market exposures to stay below 25%. But, you know, it's going to take us some time to work through that both with external growth and, and how the portfolio has changed over time. So it might rise a little bit on its way to to stabilize, you know, maybe 20% to 25% of the.

    是的,這是我們思考很多的事情。我們在丹彿看到越來越多的機會。你知道,像我們在明尼阿波利斯和丹佛那樣的業務帶來了機遇,雖然我們喜歡這樣,但你知道,我們確實需要透過像其他市場的利迪亞人那樣的外部成長,以便我們能夠從中成長,我們,你知道,積極尋找山那邊的市場,尋找機會。所以,您知道,理想情況下,我們希望這些市場風險敞口保持在 25% 以下。但是,你知道,我們需要一些時間來解決外部成長以及投資組合隨時間變化的問題。所以它可能會在穩定的過程中上漲一點,你知道,也許是 20% 到 25%。

  • Portfolio.

    資料夾。

  • Rob Stevenson - Analyst

    Rob Stevenson - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks guys. Appreciate the time this.

    好的,謝謝大家。珍惜這段時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Morning.

    早晨。

  • Our next question is from Michael Gorman with BTIG Michael. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG Michael 的 Michael Gorman。您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

  • Michael Gorman - Analyst

    Michael Gorman - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Grant. If I could just go back to the Denver acquisition for a second, is it possible to kind of break down as you talk about the improvement in the yield kind of how, how much of that is directly in control of, of center space in terms of operating efficiencies? So how much is coming from the expense side versus that kind of mark to market piece that you spoke about? And I guess secondarily to that, I, I how do you think about market rank growth as you talk about that improved yield? Is that baked in there at all as well?

    是的,謝謝。早安.授予。如果我能回到丹佛的收購一秒鐘,當你談論產量的改進時,是否有可能有點崩潰,即如何、有多少是直接控制的、中心空間的方面運營效率?那麼,與您所說的按市值計價的部分相比,有多少來自費用方面呢?我想其次,當你談論產量的提高時,你如何看待市場排名的成長?那也是在那裡烤的嗎?

  • Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

    Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

  • Yeah, good morning, Mike. I appreciate the question. You know, things like mark to market rents and potential tax savings that we alluded to you know, I think one they are in our control, if you will, in the sense that, you know, we appeal taxes in the normal course on all assets and communities that we own. We think there's a very logical path to achieve some of these savings. Obviously, there's a counterparty there that, you know, we have to solicit feedback from. But we think there's a very logical path to achieve those savings mark to market rents. You know, we, we've been fair to conservative in our underwriting of this asset. So, you know, for instance, our year one pro forma here as you know, 1.5% to 1.75% kind of top line scheduled rent growth, which we think is a very measured target and, and base case scenario that perhaps we could outperform. You know, the reason we've taken that approach is we do understand that we do have to work through lease expiration curve initiatives to kind of reposition that to, to our operating standards and our operating practices. And, and we've tried to account for that in the underwriting on the resident experience side, I think it's harder to, you know, put a metric on, you know, being present, providing high touch service, having a smile on your face, you know, it's harder to put a number on that from a yield perspective and say this is what it's going to achieve. But we do know and do believe, you know, that's going to lead to higher retention levels, higher satisfaction of our residents. And we've been able to, you know, bake in those assumptions into the base case. So different buckets, different initiatives that we're focused on. And, you know, we think in the aggregate, those are the things that take it from that blended five yield that I talked about pro for a year one to that mid to mid to high five.

    是的,早上好,麥克。我很欣賞這個問題。你知道,我們向你提到的按市價計算的租金和潛在的稅收節省等事情,我認為它們在我們的控制範圍內,如果你願意的話,從某種意義上說,你知道,我們在正常過程中對所有的人徵稅。我們認為有一個非常合乎邏輯的途徑可以實現其中的一些節省。顯然,那裡有一個交易對手,你知道,我們必須徵求回饋。但我們認為,有一條非常合乎邏輯的途徑可以實現這些節省的市場租金。你知道,我們在承保這項資產方面一直相當保守。所以,你知道,例如,我們第一年的預計租金成長為 1.5% 至 1.75%,我們認為這是一個非常謹慎的目標,而且我們可能可以超越基本情境。您知道,我們採取這種方法的原因是我們確實明白,我們確實必須透過租賃到期曲線計劃進行工作,以將其重新定位到我們的營運標準和營運實務。而且,我們已經嘗試在居民體驗方面的承保中考慮到這一點,我認為很難衡量,你知道,在場,提供高接觸服務,對你的微笑面對,你知道,從產量的角度來看,很難給出一個數字並說這就是它將要實現的目標。但我們確實知道並且相信,這將帶來更高的保留率和更高的居民滿意度。你知道,我們已經能夠將這些假設融入基本案例中。我們關注的目標不同,舉措也不同。而且,你知道,我們認為總的來說,這些是從我在第一年談到的專業混合五收益率到中、中到高五的因素。

  • Michael Gorman - Analyst

    Michael Gorman - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks for, thanks for the detail there. And then you know, maybe and I'm just trying to square some of the commentary here. It sounds like your markets are generally past the the kind of the peak impact or at least the peak supply. So I'm just trying to understand as we think about the revenue picture here. Are we seeing any signs of stress out of out of the tenants? I know you, I know you talked about relatively strong renter base but we bad debt back half of the year is going to be higher. Definitely the revenue expectations are down. I mean, are there any other demand metrics or tenant health metrics that you're seeing maybe a little bit of additional stress beyond just any impact from supply.

    好的,謝謝,謝謝你的詳細資料。然後你知道,也許,我只是想糾正這裡的一些評論。聽起來你們的市場通常已經過了影響高峰或至少是供應高峰。所以我只是想了解我們對收入狀況的思考。我們是否看到租戶有任何壓力跡象?我了解你,我知道你談到了相對強勁的租戶基礎,但我們下半年的壞帳將會更高。收入預期肯定會下降。我的意思是,除了供應的影響之外,您是否還看到任何其他需求指標或租戶健康指標可能會帶來一些額外的壓力。

  • Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

    Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

  • Thanks, Mike. I, I don't we don't believe so that we're seeing additional stress. So, you know, the rent to income levels have remained healthy, our bad debt. Well, you know, it's picked up slightly. I mean, we're still talking about 40 to 50 basis points. This is a really stable level that we could expect almost in any portfolio relatively to other public peers, much lower bad debt. And I do want to call your attention to while we're past the peak of supply, there still is quite a bit of absorption to go. So, you know, we still do see some softening in the rents and not only just seasonality, but it has been a little softer as markets continue you to absorb. As I mentioned, Minneapolis has been, you know, one of the leaders in absorption, but we're not all the way through it in that market either. So, you know, there still is a lot of vacancy in these markets, new projects that are still in lease up. But as we work through that into next year and then with the lack of deliveries, you know, that really should be a tailwind for us.

    謝謝,麥克。我,我不相信,所以我們看到了額外的壓力。所以,你知道,租金與收入水準之比保持健康,我們的壞帳。嗯,你知道,它已經略有回升。我的意思是,我們仍在談論 40 到 50 個基點。這是一個非常穩定的水平,我們幾乎可以預期在任何投資組合中,相對於其他公共同行,壞帳都要低得多。我確實想提請您注意,雖然我們已經過了供應高峰,但仍有相當多的吸收空間。所以,你知道,我們仍然看到租金有所疲軟,這不僅僅是季節性的,而且隨著市場繼續吸收,租金也有所疲軟。正如我所提到的,明尼阿波利斯一直是吸收率的領導者之一,但我們在該市場上也還沒有完全實現這一點。所以,你知道,這些市場仍然有很多空置,新項目仍在租賃中。但當我們將這個問題延續到明年,然後由於交付量不足,你知道,這對我們來說確實應該是一個順風車。

  • But overall, I think the, you know, we aren't seeing any other demand drivers and or evidence in the data of you know, any stress to the consumer and our residents.

    但總的來說,我認為,我們沒有看到任何其他需求驅動因素和/或數據中的證據,給消費者和我們的居民帶來任何壓力。

  • Michael Gorman - Analyst

    Michael Gorman - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much for the time.

    偉大的。非常感謝您抽出時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much. Just as a reminder to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Now when prepping to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our next question comes from Mason grow with cental space Mason. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

    非常感謝。為了提醒提問,請按下電話鍵盤上的星號,然後再按一個。現在,當準備提問時,請確保您的裝置在本地已取消靜音。我們的下一個問題來自梅森與中心空間梅森一起成長。您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

  • Mason Grow - Analyst

    Mason Grow - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. Can you talk more about what you're seeing in Denver, maybe on the new versus renewal rates and then the supply and demand outlook in your submarket.

    嘿,大家早安。您能否多談談您在丹彿看到的情況,也許是關於新房與續租率,以及您所在子市場的供需前景。

  • Yeah, I why grant, why don't you go ahead and start with the the supply picture with respect to the submarket and, and then I can address the what we're seeing on new and renewal in Denver.

    是的,我為什麼不同意,為什麼不繼續從子市場的供應情況開始,然後我可以解決我們在丹彿看到的新建和更新的情況。

  • Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhairav Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Morning Mason. I'll start real quick by top side kind of framing where we are in Denver. You know, that is our target market with the highest levels of supply. Currently about 4.8% of existing stock under construction that represents about 15,000 apartment homes.

    早上梅森。我很快就會從我們在丹佛的頂部框架開始。你知道,那是我們供應量最高的目標市場。目前,約 4.8% 的現有存量正在建設中,約 15,000 套公寓住宅。

  • You know, that percentage is down notably from 11% in 2023. And when we look at next 12 month deliveries, you know, those are forecasted at 8,400 apartment homes, which is below 22 and 23 delivery levels in that market, which averaged about 11,000 and certainly below the past 12 months. When we look at our submarket, you know, continue to see higher levels of recent deliveries in certain urban pockets, along with higher levels of recent deliveries in 2024 in certain suburban pockets.

    要知道,這一比例比 2023 年的 11% 顯著下降。當我們查看未來 12 個月的交付量時,您知道,預測公寓住宅為 8,400 套,低於該市場 22 和 23 套的交付水平,平均約為 11,000 套,肯定低於過去 12 個月。當我們審視我們的子市場時,您會發現,某些城市地區的近期交付量持續較高,某些郊區地區的近期交付量在 2024 年也較高。

  • But the east metro, the Aurora area has had a lot of recent deliveries. We do not own communities there. Our submarkets deal relatively insulated compared to some of the other locations that have experienced large influx of product. You know, if I think about the tech center southern part of the metro where we own a community, a lot of that land is built out northern part of the metro. You know, it, it's really isolated to a couple communities in a lot of situations where we own, where we own products. So, feeling relatively insulated in the suburban markets and you know, have seen that influx in the urban core in certain.

    但東部地鐵、奧羅拉地區最近有很多交付。我們在那裡沒有社區。與其他一些經歷了大量產品湧入的地區相比,我們的子市場的交易相對隔離。你知道,如果我考慮地鐵南部的科技中心,我們在那裡擁有一個社區,那麼很多土地都建在地鐵北部。你知道,在我們擁有產品的許多情況下,它確實與幾個社區隔離。因此,感覺在郊區市場相對孤立,而且你知道,已經看到一定程度的城市核心湧入。

  • Pockets.

    口袋。

  • And Mason, as we look at the Denver, you know, data in as an individual market, you know, our occupancy there, it's about 95%. We also have retention a little bit over 50% there. Our renewal rates, the trade out, you know, kind of most recent full month would be slightly over 1.2 to 1.3 and the new lease trade outs are just slightly over two. So, some differential there, but you know, more renewals than the new leases. And again, going into these quarters, it's a very small sample size given our lease expiration profile.

    梅森,當我們查看丹佛的數據時,你知道,作為一個單獨的市場,我們在那裡的入住率約為 95%。我們的留存率也略高於 50%。我們的續約率,最近一個月的交易率將略高於 1.2 至 1.3,而新的租賃交易率略高於 2。因此,存在一些差異,但你知道,續租比新租約更多。再說一遍,考慮到我們的租賃到期情況,進入這些季度,樣本量非常小。

  • Mason Grow - Analyst

    Mason Grow - Analyst

  • Thank you and unexpensive. Are there any one time items this quarter that helped the moderation or are there unexpected for the rest of the year.

    謝謝而且不貴。本季是否有任何一次性項目有助於緩和,或者在今年剩餘時間裡是否有意外的項目。

  • Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

    Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

  • Morning, Mason? I'll take that one. So within OpEx, we have benefit from adjusting our health insurance reserve in, in, in the third quarter. So that kind of did provide, you know, some, you know, some positive variants. Now that that's typical, we, we reassess our reserves throughout the year, but typically any adjustments are, are made in the third quarter, the fourth quarter. So, although there is an impact there, it's, it's also something that is typically expected around this time of the year when the Adjuster.

    早上好,梅森?我會接受那個。因此,在營運支出方面,我們從第三季調整健康保險準備金中受益。所以,這確實提供了一些積極的變體。現在這是典型的,我們,我們全年重新評估我們的儲備,但通常任何調整都是在第三季、第四季進行的。因此,儘管會產生影響,但在每年的這個時候,調整者通常會預期會出現這種情況。

  • Mason Grow - Analyst

    Mason Grow - Analyst

  • Reserves.

    儲備。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • It includes the Q&A session. I will now hand back to Anne for any closing remarks.

    它包括問答環節。我現在將把所有的結束語交還給安妮。

  • Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

    Anne Olson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, Trustee

  • I'd like to thank our teams for their outstanding efforts, year-to-date. And I look forward to meeting with many of you in Las Vegas at the upcoming Real World convention.

    我要感謝我們的團隊今年迄今所做的傑出努力。我期待在拉斯維加斯即將舉行的現實世界大會上與你們中的許多人見面。

  • Thank you all for joining.

    感謝大家的加入。

  • This morning and have a great Tuesday.

    今天早上,祝你星期二愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much everyone for joining that concludes today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

    非常感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路。