Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Kelsey, and I'll be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Carlisle Companies third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

午安.我叫凱爾西，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表卡萊爾公司歡迎各位參加 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Mehul Patel, Carlisle's Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我謹將電話轉交給卡萊爾公司投資者關係副總裁梅胡爾·帕特爾先生。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Carlisle's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm Mehul Patel, Vice President of Investor Relations for Carlisle. We released our third-quarter financial results today, and you can find both our press release and the presentation for today's call in the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加卡萊爾公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。我是卡萊爾公司投資者關係副總裁梅胡爾·帕特爾。我們今天發布了第三季財務業績，您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到我們的新聞稿和今天電話會議的簡報。

On the call with me today are Chris Koch, our Board Chair, President, and CEO; along with Kevin Zdimal, our CFO. Today's call will begin with Chris providing key highlights of the third quarter. Kevin will follow Chris and provide an overview of our Q3 financial performance and our outlook for the full year of 2025. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the line for questions.

今天和我一起通話的有我們的董事會主席、總裁兼執行長克里斯·科赫，以及我們的財務長凱文·茲迪馬爾。今天的電話會議將首先由克里斯介紹第三季的主要亮點。Kevin 將接替 Chris，概述我們第三季的財務表現以及我們對 2025 年全年的展望。在我們發表完準備好的演講後，我們將開放提問環節。

But before we begin, please refer to slide 2 of our presentation, where we note that comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results could differ materially from these statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties which are discussed in our press release and SEC filings. As Carlisle provides non-GAAP financial information, we provided reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and in the appendix of our presentation materials which are available on our website.

但在我們開始之前，請參閱我們簡報的第 2 張投影片，其中我們指出，今天的評論將包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。由於我們在新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中討論的許多風險和不確定因素，實際結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異。由於卡萊爾提供的是非公認會計準則財務信息，我們在新聞稿和演示材料的附錄中提供了公認會計準則和非公認會計準則指標之間的調節表，這些材料可在我們的網站上查閱。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Chris.

接下來，我將把電話交給克里斯。

Thank you, Mehul. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Carlisle's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. Let's begin by turning to slide 3 of the presentation.

謝謝你，梅胡爾。下午好，感謝各位參加卡萊爾公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。讓我們先來看簡報的第3張投影片。

Carlisle's third-quarter results reflect the strength of the underlying CCM business, offset by the ongoing challenging environment in both residential and non-residential new construction. This, along with the M&A activity in our commercial channel, was communicated on our early September commentary. The vast majority of the continued weakness in new construction is driven by the continuation of higher interest rates, affordability challenges, and economic uncertainty around inflation, coupled with job stability concerns and labor shortages.

卡萊爾第三季的業績反映了其核心 CCM 業務的強勁表現，但被住宅和非住宅新建項目持續面臨的挑戰性環境所抵消。這一點，連同我們在商業管道的併購活動，已在9月初的評論中進行了溝通。新建築持續疲軟的主要原因是利率持續走高、住房負擔能力面臨挑戰、通膨帶來的經濟不確定性，以及就業穩定性問題和勞動力短缺。

With respect to the post-M&A integration, as with any transaction, some turmoil and change was to be expected. And we anticipate that over the coming months, this will be resolved and we will return to a more stable situation. Despite this turbulence, third-quarter revenues came in at $1.3 billion, up 1% year over year, only slightly below the expectations we discussed on our July second-quarter earnings call. This allowed us to achieve an adjusted EPS of $5.61.

至於併購後的整合，與任何交易一樣，出現一些動盪和變化是意料之中的。我們預計在接下來的幾個月裡，這個問題將會得到解決，我們將恢復到更穩定的狀態。儘管經歷了這些動盪，第三季營收仍達到 13 億美元，年增 1%，僅略低於我們在 7 月第二季財報電話會議上討論的預期。這使我們能夠實現調整後每股收益 5.61 美元。

In Q3, CCM continued to execute on its Vision 2030 initiatives and delivered another solid quarter, maintaining adjusted EBITDA margin of over 30% as recurring revenue from reroofing activity provided a stable foundation amid near-term order volatility due to the previously discussed pressures and new construction demand and the temporary setbacks associated with challenges at a key distribution partner.

第三季度，CCM 繼續推進其 2030 年願景計劃，並取得了又一個穩健的季度業績，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率保持在 30% 以上。由於先前討論的壓力和新建築需求，以及主要分銷合作夥伴面臨的挑戰帶來的暫時性挫折，近期訂單波動較大，但屋頂翻新業務的經常性收入為其提供了穩定的基礎。

Notably, reroofing demand, which represents approximately 70% of CCM's commercial roofing revenue, remain strong. This momentum in reroofing activity is driven by the aging commercial building stock, a growing backlog of roofs reaching replacement age, energy efficiency mandates, new product solutions that reduce labor, and the trust our customers place in the Carlisle Experience and our premium warranties. Outside of new construction and distribution impacts, CCM's underlying business performance remained consistent with our expectations.

值得注意的是，屋頂翻新需求仍然強勁，約佔 CCM 商業屋頂收入的 70%。屋頂翻新活動的這種勢頭是由老化的商業建築存量、達到更換年齡的屋頂積壓數量不斷增加、能源效率要求、減少人工的新產品解決方案以及我們的客戶對卡萊爾體驗和我們優質保固的信任所推動的。除了新項目和分銷的影響外，CCM 的基本業務表現與我們的預期保持一致。

While CCM's performance was a bright spot, we continue to face the well-known market challenges at CWT, which have negatively impacted the business over the last six quarters. Elevated mortgage rates have led to increased monthly payment levels contributing to suppressed demand. The imbalance in sellers and buyers of homes has made transactions more difficult. US housing supply has also made it difficult to afford a home.

儘管 CCM 的表現是一個亮點，但我們仍然面臨 CWT 眾所周知的市場挑戰，這些挑戰在過去六個季度對業務產生了負面影響。抵押貸款利率高企導致每月還款額增加，從而抑制了需求。房屋買賣雙方數量失衡，使得交易更加困難。美國住房供應不足也使得買房變得困難。

One estimate has shown that housing prices have risen over 45% since 2020, resulting in the medium home price of over $430,000, which is almost 5 times higher than the median household income across the country. The measures of housing stock availability point to a growing gap between supply and demand, the root of the affordability problem, which is amplified by declining productivity and a shortage of skilled labor. As a result, it takes longer to build a house than it has in past decades. It's estimated that at least 3 million to 4 million additional homes need to be built to address the affordable housing shortage in the US.

據估計，自 2020 年以來，房價上漲了 45% 以上，導致房屋中位數超過 43 萬美元，幾乎是全國家庭收入中位數的 5 倍。住房存量指標顯示供需缺口日益擴大，這是住房負擔能力問題的根源，而生產力下降和熟練勞動力短缺加劇了這個問題。因此，現在建造房屋所需的時間比過去幾十年都要長。據估計，美國至少需要新建 300 萬至 400 萬套房屋才能解決經濟適用房短缺問題。

Despite the near-term challenges, imbalances, and volatility, we remain confident in our ability to create value for our shareholders through our Vision 2030 strategies and initiatives. Carlisle remains a market leader operating an imperative business in the most attractive market globally. The megatrends of energy efficiency, labor savings, growing reroofing demand, and the demand for residential housing will continue to drive superior, sustainable, and best-in-class financial performance for Carlisle.

儘管短期內面臨挑戰、失衡和波動，但我們仍然有信心透過我們的「2030願景」策略和舉措為股東創造價值。卡萊爾仍然是市場領導者，在全球最具吸引力的市場中經營著至關重要的業務。能源效率、勞動力節約、屋頂翻新需求成長以及住宅需求等大趨勢將繼續推動卡萊爾取得卓越、可持續和一流的財務表現。

Carlisle's pivot in 2023 to a pure-play building products company has enhanced our focus on our industry-leading platforms, highlighted our leadership in attractive growth markets, and positioned us to deliver innovative building envelope solutions to our customers, all to drive superior financial returns for our shareholders.

卡萊爾在 2023 年轉型為純粹的建築產品公司，這增強了我們對行業領先平台的關注，突顯了我們在具有吸引力的成長市場的領導地位，並使我們能夠為客戶提供創新的建築圍護結構解決方案，所有這些都是為了給我們的股東帶來卓越的財務回報。

During the quarter, we also maintained our commitment to disciplined capital deployment. We repurchased 800,000 shares for $300 million and raised our dividend by 10%, marking our 49th consecutive annual increase. We also continue to integrate our recent acquisitions of Bond & Logic, ThermaFoam, and Plasti-Fab, and they continue to meet our expectations.

本季度，我們也繼續堅持了審慎的資本部署策略。我們斥資 3 億美元回購了 80 萬股股票，並將股利提高了 10%，這是我們連續第 49 年提高股利。我們也持續整合近期收購的 Bond & Logic、ThermaFoam 和 Plasti-Fab，它們也持續符合我們的預期。

Innovation is a core pillar of Vision 2030's playbook to create value, increase margins, and drive market share growth. Our innovation pipeline continues to deliver tangible marketplace results. The new products we've introduced over the past two years, including RapidLock, SeamShield, APEEL, and VP Tech, are gaining meaningful commercial traction. These products are proven solutions that address real contractor pain points around installation speed, energy performance, and long-term durability.

創新是「2030願景」策略的核心支柱，旨在創造價值、提高利潤率並推動市場份額成長。我們的創新產品線持續為市場帶來切實可見的成果。過去兩年我們推出的新產品，包括 RapidLock、SeamShield、APEEL 和 VP Tech，正在獲得顯著的商業成功。這些產品是經過驗證的解決方案，能夠解決承包商在安裝速度、能源性能和長期耐用性方面遇到的實際痛點。

With our increased investment and substantial focus on the understanding of the voice of the customer, we anticipate impactful and revolutionary new product introductions over the next decade. What's particularly encouraging about these new products is how these innovations align with broader industry trends. Building owners increasingly prioritize energy efficiency to reduce operating costs. Contractors face persistent labor constraints that make productivity-enhancing products more valuable. And our innovation roadmap specifically targets these market needs.

隨著我們加強投資力度，並高度重視了解客戶的聲音，我們預計在未來十年內將推出具有影響力和革命性的新產品。這些新產品最令人鼓舞的地方在於，這些創新與更廣泛的行業趨勢相契合。建築業主越來越重視能源效率，以降低營運成本。承包商面臨持續的勞動力短缺問題，這使得能夠提高生產效率的產品更有價值。我們的創新路線圖正是針對這些市場需求而製定的。

This innovation strategy also directly supports our Vision 2030 objective of generating 25% of revenue from recently-introduced products. It's a key driver of our plan to grow faster than our markets while expanding margins over time.

這項創新策略也直接支持我們2030年的願景目標，即25%的收入來自新推出的產品。這是我們實現成長速度超過市場平均水平，同時隨著時間的推移不斷擴大利潤率的關鍵驅動因素。

Our M&A strategy is also creating meaningful value by expanding both our capabilities and our addressable markets. The MTL acquisition in 2024 has exceeded our expectations, allowing us to sell more content per roof through prefabricated metal edge systems, creating a more complete warranty and enhancing our reputation as providers of complete building envelope solutions.

我們的併購策略透過擴大我們的能力和目標市場，也創造了有意義的價值。2024 年收購 MTL 超出了我們的預期，使我們能夠透過預製金屬邊緣系統在每個屋頂上銷售更多內容，從而創造更完善的保修，並提升我們作為完整建築圍護解決方案提供商的聲譽。

The Plasti-Fab and ThermaFoam integrations are also progressing and on track. We're capturing cost synergies while leveraging our national footprint to drive sales expansion.

Plasti-Fab 和 ThermaFoam 的整合工作也在順利進行，並按計劃進行。我們正在利用成本協同效應，同時藉助我們的全國性佈局來推動銷售成長。

What's particularly powerful about our position in EPS insulation is our unique combination of in-house raw material production and the industry's most extensive geographic coverage in North America. This gives us structural cost advantages that enable us to serve national retail and distribution partners more effectively than any competitor.

我們在 EPS 保溫材料領域擁有特別強大的優勢，這得益於我們獨特的內部原料生產能力以及在北美地區最廣泛的地域覆蓋範圍。這為我們帶來了結構性的成本優勢，使我們能夠比任何競爭對手更有效地服務全國零售和分銷合作夥伴。

The Bond & Logic acquisition opens an entirely new growth avenue. UltraTouch recycled denim insulation addresses the large fiberglass insulation market with a differentiated value proposition focused on sustainability and performance. As building codes and consumer preferences increasingly favor environmentally responsible materials, we're positioned to capture share in a sizable category where we previously had no presence.

收購 Bond & Logic 開闢了一條全新的成長途徑。UltraTouch 再生牛仔布隔熱材料以永續性和性能為重點，針對龐大的玻璃纖維隔熱材料市場提出了差異化的價值主張。隨著建築規範和消費者偏好越來越傾向於環保材料，我們有望在這個我們以前從未涉足的龐大領域中佔有一席之地。

As we move into 2026, we are optimistic that M&A markets will become increasingly more productive for Carlisle. As economic conditions improve, confidence in acquisition target financials will strengthen and the valuation gap between buyers and sellers will close, and we should see deal activity increase. This will bolster our long-term strategy of deploying capital in M&A to drive growth and market share. Meaningful bolt-on acquisitions will continue to play a significant role in our path to growth, and we hope to return to a pace of two to three acquisitions each year.

展望 2026 年，我們樂觀地認為，併購市場將為卡萊爾帶來越來越大的收益。隨著經濟狀況的改善，人們對收購目標公司的財務狀況的信心將會增強，買賣雙方之間的估值差距將會縮小，我們應該會看到交易活動增加。這將加強我們透過併購部署資本以推動成長和市場份額的長期策略。有意義的補充性收購將繼續在我們實現成長的道路上發揮重要作用，我們希望恢復到每年兩到三項收購的速度。

Our operational initiatives continue to deliver solid returns on capital as well. Packaging automation investments in Kingman and Fernley, footprint consolidation initiatives, and expanding in-house solutions for adhesive applications through our new Flexible FAST adhesive product are three specific examples of key initiatives that are utilizing capital to create a fundamentally more efficient cost structure that will drive even stronger margin expansion when higher volumes return.

我們的營運措施也持續帶來可觀的資本回報。在金曼和弗恩利進行包裝自動化投資、整合佈局計劃，以及透過我們新的Flexible FAST黏合劑產品擴大內部黏合劑應用解決方案，這三個具體的例子是關鍵舉措，這些舉措正在利用資本來創造一個從根本上更高效的成本結構，這將在銷量回升時推動利潤率更強勁的增長。

Beyond cost actions, we're executing growth initiatives that diversify our revenue streams. Our Home Depot relationship is expanding to include single ply roofing, insulation, flashing and air barriers, creating new selling channels for our products. Our cross-selling efforts in retail continue to build momentum, and the Bond & Logic addition gives us an entry into attractive insulation categories where we can leverage our existing relationships. The combination of these operational improvements and strategic growth initiatives are positioning CWT to expand margins as we move through 2026, especially if end market recovery accelerates.

除了降低成本之外，我們還在實施成長計劃，以實現收入來源多元化。我們與家得寶的合作關係正在擴大，涵蓋單層屋頂、隔熱材料、防水捲材和空氣屏障，為我們的產品創造了新的銷售管道。我們在零售領域的交叉銷售努力持續取得進展，Bond & Logic 的加入使我們得以進入具有吸引力的保溫材料品類，從而可以利用我們現有的關係。這些營運改善和策略性成長措施的結合，使 CWT 能夠在 2026 年擴大利潤率，尤其是在終端市場復甦加速的情況下。

Our capital allocation approach remains a core competitive advantage. The $1 billion bond issuance we completed in the third quarter provides significant strategic flexibility and cash for near-term opportunities while keeping our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio comfortably within our 1 times to 2 times target range. This enhanced financial capacity positions us to pursue multiple value creation path simultaneously. Year to date, we've deployed $1 billion in share repurchases, taking advantage of valuation opportunities, and we are now raising our share buyback target to $1.3 billion for the year. The 10% dividend increase, our 49th consecutive annual increase, demonstrates our confidence in the business' ability to generate cash flow.

我們的資本配置方式仍是我們的核心競爭優勢。我們在第三季完成的 10 億美元債券發行，為近期機會提供了重要的戰略靈活性和現金，同時使我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率保持在 1 倍至 2 倍的目標範圍內。增強的財務實力使我們能夠同時追求多種價值創造途徑。今年迄今為止，我們已投入 10 億美元用於股票回購，利用估值機會，現在我們將今年的股票回購目標提高到 13 億美元。此次股息成長 10%，是我們連續第 49 年提高股息，這顯示我們對公司創造現金流的能力充滿信心。

We expect to generate approximately $1 billion of cash flow from operating activities this year, providing substantial capacity for continued innovation investments, strategic M&A that meets our disciplined criteria, and ongoing capital returns to shareholders. Our track record of balanced, opportunistic capital deployment reflects our commitment to maximizing long-term value creation.

我們預計今年經營活動將產生約 10 億美元的現金流，為持續的創新投資、符合我們嚴格標準的策略併購以及持續向股東提供資本回報提供了充足的資金。我們過去在平衡、機會主義的資本部署方面的良好記錄，體現了我們致力於實現長期價值最大化的承諾。

Looking ahead and keeping in mind the near-term transitory headwinds our markets are facing, we are revising our full-year 2025 guidance to flat revenue with adjusted EBITDA margin down 250 basis points. While macroeconomic and distribution channel uncertainties persist, we remain confident in our Vision 2030 targets and ability to drive value creation through our recurring reroofing leadership, operational improvement initiatives, and consistent execution of our Vision 2030 initiatives.

展望未來，考慮到我們市場面臨的短期暫時性不利因素，我們將 2025 年全年業績預期調整為營收持平，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率下降 250 個基點。儘管宏觀經濟和分銷管道的不確定性依然存在，但我們對2030年願景目標以及透過持續的屋頂翻新領導地位、營運改善舉措和2030年願景計畫的持續執行來創造價值的能力仍然充滿信心。

As a reminder, the structural advantages underpinning our businesses remain fully intact. We compete in attractive end markets with favorable long-term fundamentals. The secular trends supporting our growth, recurring reroofing demand, energy efficiency requirements, adoption of labor-saving technologies, and the persistent housing shortage all continue to create meaningful tailwinds.

再次提醒大家，支撐我們業務的結構性優勢依然完好無損。我們在具有良好長期基本面的極具吸引力的終端市場中競爭。支持我們成長的長期趨勢、不斷增長的屋頂翻新需求、能源效率要求、省力技術的採用以及持續的住房短缺，都繼續為我們帶來重要的順風。

As a reminder, our Vision 2030 strategy provides clear direction through four key pillars: product innovation to drive differentiation and above-market growth, operational excellence through COS, exceptional customer service via the Carlisle Experience, and strategic M&A to enhance capabilities and expand our addressable markets. We remain firmly committed to our Vision 2030 targets of $40 of adjusted EPS and maintaining an ROIC of 25% or greater, which we expect will generate over $6 billion in cumulative free cash flow through 2030, along with our anticipated organic revenue CAGR exceeding 5%. And we have multiple pathways to achieve these ambitious goals.

再次提醒大家，我們的 2030 年願景策略透過四大支柱提供了明確的方向：產品創新以推動差異化和高於市場水平的成長；透過 COS 實現卓越營運；透過 Carlisle Experience 提供卓越的客戶服務；以及透過策略併購來增強能力並擴大我們的目標市場。我們仍然堅定地致力於實現 2030 年願景目標，即調整後每股收益達到 40 美元，並保持 25% 或更高的投資回報率，我們預計到 2030 年將產生超過 60 億美元的累計自由現金流，同時預計有機收入複合年增長率將超過 5%。我們有多種途徑來實現這些雄心勃勃的目標。

In summary, Carlisle's third-quarter performance once again showcased the earnings power of CCM. Despite the significant challenges in the new construction market and distribution channels, sales grew and adjusted EBITDA margin remained above our Vision 2030 target of 25%.

總而言之，卡萊爾第三季的業績再次展現了 CCM 的獲利能力。儘管新建築市場和分銷管道面臨重大挑戰，但銷售額仍實現成長，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率仍高於我們 2030 年願景目標 25%。

With that, I'll turn it over to Kevin to provide additional financial details and color on our outlook for 2025. Kevin?

接下來，我將把發言權交給凱文，讓他提供更多財務細節，並展望我們對 2025 年的展望。凱文？

Thank you, Chris, and good afternoon. I'll review our third-quarter financial results starting on slide 4.

謝謝你，克里斯，下午好。我將從第 4 張投影片開始回顧我們第三季的財務表現。

We generated revenue of $1.3 billion in the third quarter, an increase of 1% compared to the third quarter of 2024. The acquisitions of Plasti-Fab, ThermoFoam, and Bond & Logic contributed $39 million of revenue in the quarter.

第三季度，我們的營收為 13 億美元，比 2024 年第三季成長了 1%。收購 Plasti-Fab、ThermoFoam 和 Bond & Logic 為本季貢獻了 3,900 萬美元的收入。

Organic revenue declined 2% from the previous year as solid commercial reroofing was offset by the continuation of soft new construction activity in both residential and commercial end markets as well as residential, repair, and remodel.

由於住宅和商業終端市場的新建築活動以及住宅維修和改造活動持續疲軟，強勁的商業屋頂翻新業務抵消了有機收入，導致有機收入比上年下降了 2%。

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $349 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.9%, a decrease of 170 basis points from the prior year. This decrease was mainly due to lower volumes at CWT and our continued investments in innovation and enhancements to the Carlisle Experience. Adjusted EPS was $5.61, down 3% compared to last year. This year-over-year decline was a result of low organic earnings from the previously mentioned market challenges and additional net interest expense, partially offset by the benefit of share repurchases and contributions from our strategic acquisitions.

本季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.49 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 25.9%，比上年下降 170 個基點。這一下降主要是由於 CWT 的銷量下降，以及我們對卡萊爾體驗的創新和改進的持續投資。調整後每股收益為 5.61 美元，比去年下降 3%。年比下降是由於前面提到的市場挑戰導致有機收益較低以及額外的淨利息支出，部分被股票回購和策略收購帶來的收益所抵消。

Turning to our segment performance on slide 5. CCM reported third-quarter revenue of $1 billion, essentially flat year over year, reflecting the current construction environment. Reroofing growth has remained stable as building owners continue to address aging roof systems that must be replaced. However, headwinds exist as macroeconomic uncertainty has continued to put pressure on new construction as cautious builders delay project starts and the impact from near-term volatility caused by the consolidation of distributors, manufacturers, and contractors in our industry.

接下來請看第 5 頁投影片，了解我們各個業務部門的表現。CCM公佈第三季營收為10億美元，與去年同期基本持平，反映了當前的建築環境。由於建築業主不斷著手解決舊屋頂系統必須更換的問題，屋頂翻新業務的成長一直保持穩定。然而，由於宏觀經濟的不確定性持續給新建築帶來壓力，謹慎的建築商推遲專案開工，以及行業內分銷商、製造商和承包商的整合造成的短期波動，不利因素依然存在。

CCM's adjusted EBITDA was $303 million, down 8% compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 30.2%, which declined 260 basis points, primarily due to materials inflation driven by ongoing supply disruptions on ATO out of China and anti-dumping duties on PCPP from China in addition to our continued investments in innovation and enhancements to the Carlisle Experience.

CCM 的調整後 EBITDA 為 3.03 億美元，比上年下降 8%。本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 30.2%，下降了 260 個基點，主要原因是由於中國 ATO 供應持續中斷以及對中國 PCPP 徵收反傾銷稅導致的材料價格上漲，此外，我們還持續投資於創新和提升卡萊爾體驗。

Moving to slide 6. CWT reported third-quarter revenue of $346 million, up 3% year over year with the contribution from recent acquisitions. Organic revenue declined 8% from the prior year due to lower volumes resulting from continued softness in commercial new construction and residential end markets as affordability challenges and higher interest rates continue to negatively impact demand.

切換到第6張投影片。CWT公佈第三季營收為3.46億美元，年增3%，主要得益於近期收購的貢獻。由於購屋能力挑戰和利率上升持續對需求產生負面影響，導致商業新建和住宅終端市場持續疲軟，銷售量下降，有機收入較前一年下降 8%。

CWT's adjusted EBITDA was $60 million, a 13% year-over-year decline. CWT's adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 330 basis points from the prior year to 17.4% for the third quarter. This decrease was primarily the result of the impact of volume deleverage.

CWT 的調整後 EBITDA 為 6 千萬美元，年減 13%。CWT第三季調整後EBITDA利潤率較上年同期下降330個基點至17.4%。這一下降主要是由於成交量去槓桿化的影響。

Turning to slide 8. Our financial position remains strong with flexibility to execute our superior capital allocation strategy. As of September 30, we had approximately $1.1 billion of cash and cash equivalents and $1 billion available under our revolving credit facility. During the third quarter, we issued $1 billion of debt. This strategic financing enhances our liquidity and provides additional capacity to pursue growth initiatives while maintaining our net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1 times to 2 times.

翻到第8張幻燈片。我們的財務狀況依然穩健，並具備靈活執行我們卓越的資本配置策略的能力。截至9月30日，我們擁有約11億美元的現金及現金等價物，以及10億美元的循環信貸額度。第三季度，我們發行了10億美元的債券。這項策略性融資增強了我們的流動性，並為我們推進成長計畫提供了額外的能力，同時將我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率維持在 1 倍至 2 倍之間。

As of September 30, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.4 times, well within our target range.

截至9月30日，我們的淨負債與EBITDA比率為1.4倍，遠低於我們的目標範圍。

Moving to slide 9. We have generated free cash flow of $620 million in the first nine months of 2025, and we are on track to exceed our free cash flow margin target of 15% for the full year. Our strong, consistent cash generation continues to support our balanced approach to capital deployment. Year to date, we have invested $199 million in the business through $91 million of capital expenditures and $108 million in acquisitions. We also returned over $1.1 billion to shareholders through $1 billion of share repurchases and $135 million of dividends.

切換到第9張投影片。2025 年前九個月，我們已產生 6.2 億美元的自由現金流，我們預計將超過全年 15% 的自由現金流利潤率目標。我們強勁且穩定的現金流持續支撐著我們均衡的資本部署策略。今年迄今為止，我們已透過9,100萬美元的資本支出和1.08億美元的收購，為該業務投資了1.99億美元。我們也透過10億美元的股票回購和1.35億美元的股息，向股東返還了超過11億美元。

As Chris previously mentioned, we are now increasing our share buyback target to $1.3 billion for the full year of 2025.

正如克里斯之前提到的，我們現在將 2025 年全年的股票回購目標提高到 13 億美元。

Our revised full-year outlook for 2025 is on slide 10. We now expect full-year consolidated revenue to be flat year over year. This more conservative sentiment is based on our third-quarter results and the fourth-quarter outlook from our recent Carlisle market survey, which includes softer conditions and non-residential construction compared to the prior survey.

我們對 2025 年全年業績的修訂展望見第 10 頁。我們現在預計全年合併收入將與去年持平。這種較保守的觀點是基於我們第三季的業績以及我們最近在卡萊爾進行的市場調查中對第四季度的展望，與先前的調查相比，該展望包括市場環境疲軟和非住宅建築活動減少。

We expect CCM fourth-quarter revenue to be down low single digits as continued strength in reroofing will be more than offset by new construction and distribution channel headwinds. CWT fourth-quarter revenue is expected to increase low single digits as recent acquisitions are expected to more than offset continued market softness.

我們預計 CCM 第四季營收將出現個位數低幅下滑，因為屋頂翻新業務的持續強勁成長將被新建專案和分銷管道的不利因素所抵消。CWT第四季營收預計將實現個位數低成長，因為近期收購預計將足以抵消持續疲軟的市場影響。

We anticipate full-year adjusted EBITDA margins to decline approximately 250 basis points compared to 2024, with fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margins expected to be approximately 21%, primarily due to volume deleverage and strategic investments in the business.

我們預計全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將比 2024 年下降約 250 個基點，第四季度調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計約為 21%，這主要是由於銷售下降和對業務的策略性投資。

Before I close, I'd like to provide perspective on our current performance by highlighting Carlisle's long-term track record as shown on slide 11. Over the past 17 years, from the 2008 global financial crisis through the pandemic and subsequent supply chain disruptions, we've consistently delivered resilient strong margins across multiple economic cycles. This steady advancement reinforces our confidence in navigating today's dynamic market.

在結束之前，我想透過展示卡萊爾公司在第 11 張投影片中所示的長期業績記錄，來提供一個關於我們當前業績的觀點。過去 17 年，從 2008 年全球金融危機到疫情以及隨後的供應鏈中斷，我們在多個經濟週期中始終保持著強勁的獲利能力。這一穩步發展增強了我們駕馭當今瞬息萬變的市場的信心。

Our business fundamentals remain strong. We are executing well on our key initiatives and maintaining our focus on investing in innovation, enhancing the Carlisle Experience, and driving operational excellence through the Carlisle Operating System. Our strong balance sheet, superior capital allocation, and our proven track record of performing through challenging economic cycles, gives us confidence in our ability to achieve our Vision 2030 targets and create substantial value for our shareholders.

我們的業務基本面依然強勁。我們在關鍵舉措方面執行良好，並繼續專注於投資創新、提升卡萊爾體驗以及透過卡萊爾營運系統推動卓越營運。我們強大的資產負債表、卓越的資本配置以及在充滿挑戰的經濟週期中取得優異業績的良好記錄，使我們有信心實現「2030願景」目標，並為股東創造巨大價值。

I'll now hand it back to Chris.

現在我把它還給克里斯。

Thank you, Kevin. In conclusion, Carlisle delivered third-quarter results that demonstrate the resilience and strength of our imperative business model. While we continue to navigate the unanticipated volatility and challenges of 2025, our focus remains clearly on our Vision 2030 strategy and the factors within our control: innovation-driven organic growth, operational excellence through the Carlisle Operating System, exceptional service through the Carlisle Experience, attracting and retaining top talent, and superior capital allocation.

謝謝你，凱文。總之，卡萊爾第三季的業績證明了我們核心商業模式的韌性和實力。儘管我們仍在應對 2025 年意想不到的波動和挑戰，但我們的重點仍然明確地放在我們的 2030 年願景戰略和我們可控的因素上：創新驅動的內生增長、透過卡萊爾運營系統實現卓越運營、透過卡萊爾體驗提供卓越服務、吸引和留住頂尖人才以及卓越的資本配置。

As always, our results of future success would not be possible without the extremely talented and hard-working teams we have here at Carlisle. Their perseverance and commitment to stakeholder success shines exceptionally bright in these challenging times. I'd like to thank you for listening today and for your continued support and interest in Carlisle.

一如既往，如果沒有卡萊爾公司才華洋溢、勤奮敬業的團隊，我們未來的成功是不可能實現的。在當前充滿挑戰的時期，他們展現的毅力和對利害關係人成功的承諾尤其耀眼。感謝各位今天的收聽，也感謝各位一直以來對卡萊爾的支持與關注。

That concludes our formal comments. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

我們的正式發言到此結束。操作員，我們現在可以開始接受提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Tim Wojs, Baird.

（操作說明）蒂姆·沃伊斯，貝爾德。

I'll stick to one question as you asked. But I guess on destocking, could you just kind of frame the impact in the third quarter and what's included in the fourth quarter? And I guess, as you've had like discussions with your channel partners, I guess what's driving the destocking? And as we think about next year, can we kind of enter 2026 with kind of a clean slate from a channel inventory perspective?

我就問你一個問題吧。但我想問的是，關於去庫存，您能否簡要說明一下第三季度受到的影響以及第四季度包含哪些內容？我想，正如你與通路夥伴討論的那樣，是什麼因素導致了去庫存呢？展望明年，我們能否從通路庫存的角度，以全新的面貌進入 2026 年？

Yeah, Tim. With respect to destocking, I think as we move into Q4, we've always seen this. We're going to have Q4 and Q1. They're our latest quarters of the year. We always see some reduction in inventory from where we were in the second and the third quarter is.

是的，提姆。關於去庫存問題，我認為隨著我們進入第四季度，這種情況一直存在。我們將有第四季和第一季。這是我們今年的最新季度。我們總是看到庫存量比第二季和第三季有所下降。

Obviously, we build inventory towards the end of the first quarter and in the second quarter for the season. So when we did our market survey, we actually -- for the fourth quarter, we saw kind of normal seasonal patterns, somewhere around 1.5 to 2 months. So really for us, there was -- I would say that normal destocking, there might have been a little bit more as certain distributors work through some things.

顯然，我們會在第一季末和第二季為當季商品儲備庫存。所以當我們進行市場調查時，我們發現——在第四季度，我們看到了正常的季節性模式，大約在 1.5 到 2 個月之間。所以對我們來說，實際上——我會說正常的去庫存，可能因為某些分銷商正在處理一些事情，所以去庫存的幅度會更大一些。

I think we touched on this M&A transaction. As Carlisle, we've done a lot of M&A, and we understand how difficult those first years are and your adjusting management team, you're doing those other things. So there could be some effect there. But overall, we don't see a major impact on destocking.

我想我們已經談到這筆併購交易了。身為卡萊爾，我們做了很多併購，我們了解最初幾年有多艱難，調整管理團隊，還要做其他那些事情。所以這可能會產生一些影響。但總體而言，我們認為這對去庫存不會產生重大影響。

It could be a positive, if we go into 2026 and we get some of the macroeconomic issues resolved, we get a little bit of a turnaround in new construction, both on the resi and non-resi. And if we can get this interest rate situation figured out and get some demand back there, it could be a real positive as we head into the Q2 '26.

如果到了 2026 年，一些宏觀經濟問題得到解決，那麼住宅和非住宅的新建築可能會出現一些好轉，這可能是一個積極的信號。如果我們能夠解決利率問題，並讓需求恢復，那麼在進入 2026 年第二季時，這將是一個非常積極的信號。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊‧馬克拉里，高盛集團。

My first question is talking a bit about the Carlisle Experience and how you can leverage that in this kind of an environment to gain share. And with that, can you talk a bit about what you're seeing in terms of the competitive backdrop and how you're leveraging the Carlisle Experience to respond to that?

我的第一個問題是想談談卡萊爾體驗，以及在這種環境下如何利用這種體驗來獲得市場份額。那麼，您能否談談您目前看到的競爭格局，以及您如何利用卡萊爾體驗來應對這些挑戰？

Right. Well, I think you've got a couple of things going on. We've talked about declining new construction in both areas. I think people want to obviously use their labor more efficiently. We still have a blabber shortage. Obviously, there's been even more publicized about the impact on construction, builders, construction markets from some of the immigration actions and things like that.

正確的。嗯，我覺得你現在有兩件事要處理。我們已經討論過這兩個地區新建築數量下降的問題。我認為人們顯然都希望更有效地利用自己的勞動力。我們仍然缺乏能言善道的人。顯然，一些移民政策等措施對建築業、建築商和建築市場的影響已經得到了更廣泛的宣傳。

So I think the Carlisle Experience that we talk about, where it's the right product at the right place at the right time, you're going to show the value here in helping contractors and builders operate more effectively. It also spills out into some of the other attributes to with -- or areas, excuse me, with some of our distributors where it can enable them to respond quicker to jobs, be a better service to their customers as well, maybe perhaps carry lower inventory.

所以我認為，我們所說的卡萊爾體驗，在正確的時間、正確的地點提供正確的產品，將在這裡展現其價值，幫助承包商和建築商更有效地運作。它也延伸到其他一些方面，或者更確切地說，延伸到我們的一些經銷商的領域，使他們能夠更快地回應工作，更好地服務他們的客戶，或許還能降低庫存。

I know at the Home Depot, one of the key relationship strengths for Henry when we looked at their acquisition, was the 24-hour response time nationally was a very big competitive advantage. And I think they've leveraged that to basically now if you went into Home Depot store and you look at the Henry Aisle, most of it, there's very little competitive product there in the Henry space. So I think that points to how you can distance yourself from competition with better service.

我知道，在收購家得寶時，亨利的關鍵優勢之一就是其全國範圍內的 24 小時回應時間，這是一個非常大的競爭優勢。我認為他們利用了這一點，現在如果你走進家得寶商店，看看亨利產品區，你會發現亨利產品領域幾乎沒有競爭對手。所以我認為這顯示瞭如何透過更好的服務來拉開與競爭對手的距離。

We're investing in more Carlisle Experience. One is a program right now that we've enhanced our ability to tell contractors where their shipment is. So they much like we do on a retail side where we can see when the shipment leaves the manufacturer and then we can see where it is in the warehouse at either UPS or United -- or the Postal Service or FedEx. And then we can see when it's going to be delivered, we're building that capability, too.

我們正在加大對卡萊爾體驗的投入。目前我們有一個項目，該項目增強了我們告知承包商貨物所在位置的能力。所以他們的做法和我們在零售方面的做法很相似，我們可以看到貨物何時離開製造商，然後可以看到它在 UPS 或聯合包裹服務公司、郵政服務公司或聯邦快遞公司的倉庫中的位置。然後我們就能看到它何時交付，我們也在建構這種能力。

And again, to help the contractor, the roofer know how to deploy and when to deploy labor and not waste that, if it's not coming in, they can redeploy it to a different job. So some big competitive advantages. We measure our experience with the Net Promoter Score. And when we look at those scores, we continue to see gains from the investments we've made in customer service.

此外，為了幫助承包商，屋頂工知道如何以及何時部署勞動力，避免浪費，如果勞動力沒有到位，他們可以將勞動力重新部署到其他工作中。因此，我們擁有一些巨大的競爭優勢。我們使用淨推薦值來衡量我們的體驗。當我們查看這些評分時，我們繼續看到我們在客戶服務方面的投資所帶來的收益。

Okay. That's great color. And then following up on that, can you also talk a bit about your willingness to invest in the business given the current environment relative to the robust cash flows that you're seeing? I also noticed that it looks like you took the guide for CapEx down a bit this year. Can you just talk about the interplay between R&D, the investments long term, and what you're seeing near term and how that fits in with the cash generation?

好的。顏色真好看。接著剛才的話題，鑑於目前強勁的現金流，您能否談談您對公司投資的意願？我還注意到，今年你們似乎降低了資本支出指南的預算。您能否談談研發、長期投資以及您看到的近期情況之間的相互作用，以及這些因素如何與現金流產生相契合？

Sure. Well, we're very lucky to generate a lot of cash flow. I think the $1 billion that we've done, I think, in the last three or four years, certainly helps us when we have to pay increased dividends, investment CapEx, M&A, and share buybacks in that.

當然。我們很幸運，能夠產生大量的現金流。我認為，過去三、四年我們投入的 10 億美元，肯定有助於我們支付更高的股利、投資資本支出、併購和股票回購。

And I think on the R&D side, we're applying dollars right now. But when you think about what the front end on R&D is at least enhancing what we've been doing now, a lot of the investment is in people, processes.

我認為在研發方面，我們目前正在投入資金。但當你思考研發的前端工作時，你會發現它至少增強了我們目前正在做的事情，許多投資都集中在人員和流程上。

I'll tell you one area where we put a lot of money is in VOC. So for probably the last nine months to a year, we have a new leader in our voice of the customer, Vice President, her name is Julie Eno. She's brought in a new process, and we're spending quite a bit of money proportionately to where we were on really working through customer insights. We've got a process for doing that. It takes time. So it's really a people process kind of investment right now.

我可以告訴你，我們投入大量資金的一個領域是VOC（客戶之聲）。所以，在過去的九個月到一年裡，我們的客戶之聲部門迎來了一位新的領導者，副總裁，她的名字是朱莉·伊諾。她引入了一套新的流程，我們現在投入了相當多的資金來真正深入了解客戶需求。我們有相應的流程。這需要時間。所以，目前這確實是一項以人為本的投資。

The goal there, obviously, to develop a consistent pipeline of strong concepts that are really ready for concept testing and then to move through our stage gate process. And the goal there is to generate the type of R&D outcomes that you would want to see that are hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, not 10s. So super pleased with what we're doing there.

很顯然，我們的目標是發展出一系列強大的概念，這些概念真正準備好進行概念測試，然後通過我們的階段審查流程。而那裡的目標是產生你所希望看到的研發成果，也就是數億美元的收入，而不是幾千萬美元的收入。對我們在那裡所做的工作，我感到非常滿意。

And on top of that, I think we've talked before about how we're investing in our R&D campus, enhancing our testing ability, enhancing our ability to test projects instead of taking out factory time to put it in a pilot line and things like this.

除此之外，我想我們之前也討論過，我們正在投資研發園區，提高測試能力，提高專案測試能力，而不是佔用工廠時間將其投入試生產線等等。

So that investment will increase. That's more mechanical as that, and concrete and borders and roofs and things like that. And that will take more time to build, but that will show up here in 2026 and beyond. And I think all of that, again, to take out labor from the job and increase energy efficiency.

因此，投資將會增加。那更像是機械性的，像是混凝土、邊界、屋頂等等。這需要更多時間才能建成，但會在 2026 年及以後顯現出來。我認為所有這些，歸根結底都是為了減少勞動力投入，並提高能源效率。

And I think we've got a good pipeline going there. But it's got to be based on that voice of the customer. That's a big component we want to add because we want to make sure they hit the mark when we launch them.

我認為我們在那裡的管道鋪設得很好。但這必須以客戶的聲音為基礎。這是我們希望添加的一個重要組成部分，因為我們希望確保它們在發佈時能夠達到預期效果。

And then on your CapEx question. Yeah, the CapEx was still up 30% year over year from '24 to '25 going from $100 million to $130 million, investing in automation, AI and factories with preventive maintenance. So that investment continues. So the reduction in our outlook is really -- we're a little too ambitious on some of the projects that we thought we'd get to in '25 that are sliding into 2026.

然後是關於您提出的資本支出問題。是的，從 2024 年到 2025 年，資本支出仍然年增了 30%，從 1 億美元增至 1.3 億美元，投資於自動化、人工智慧和有預防性維護的工廠。因此，這項投資仍在繼續。因此，我們下調預期實際上是——我們對一些原本計劃在 2025 年完成的項目過於樂觀，現在這些項目要推遲到 2026 年才能完成。

David MacGregor, Longbow Research.

David MacGregor，Longbow Research。

This is Joe Nolan on for David. I just wanted to ask within CCM, if you could talk about price versus volume. And if you could just give any detail on price cost in the quarter?

這裡是喬諾蘭替大衛報道。我只是想在 CCM 內部問一下，你們能不能談談價格與銷售的關係。您能否提供本季價格成本的詳細資訊？

In the quarter, pricing was flat for us in the CCM segment. So all the offset would have been in volume, which was also flat. So both the volume and pricing flat in the quarter. On the raw materials, as I talked about, on the ATO and PCPP, those had a negative impact of $12 million which was right in line with what we expected for Q3 on the raw materials.

本季度，我們在 CCM 領域的定價保持不變。所以所有的偏移量都會反映在銷售上，而銷售量也是平穩的。因此，本季銷量和價格均保持穩定。正如我之前提到的，在原材料方面，ATO 和 PCPP 造成了 1,200 萬美元的負面影響，這與我們對第三季度原材料的預期完全一致。

Okay, great. And if you could just give an update on how to think about price cost into 4Q, if there's anything changing there?

好的，太好了。您能否簡單介紹一下第四季的價格成本策略，看看是否有任何變化？

Yeah, really very similar to what the Q3 was. We're expecting price to be flat for CCM in Q4, raw materials, slightly lower than that just because the fourth quarter is lower than third quarter on a volume side. So proportionately, that's what you'll see on the raw materials side for CCM.

是的，和Q3非常相似。我們預計第四季度 CCM 的價格將保持不變，原物料價格將略低於 CCM，因為第四季的銷售量低於第三季。因此，按比例來說，這就是您在 CCM 原料方面會看到的情況。

Garik Shmois, Loop Capital.

Garik Shmois，Loop Capital。

Just following up on that. I was wondering if you could provide the outlook for EBITDA margins in the fourth quarter by segment.

我只是跟進一下。我想請問您能否提供一下第四季各業務部門的 EBITDA 利潤率展望？

Yeah. So as we look at CCM, you'd start with the volume. We're looking for volume to be down about little single digits. Reroofing still strong, but that being more than offset by the weaker new construction as well as some of the lingering distribution channel volatility that we talked about.

是的。所以當我們研究 CCM 時，首先要考慮的是音量。我們預計成交量將下降個位數百分比。屋頂翻新業務仍然強勁，但這被疲軟的新建築業務以及我們之前討論過的持續存在的分銷渠道波動所抵消。

And then we have pricing, as I said, flat, some of the negative raw materials that gets us well and continue to invest and what Chris was talking about on the Carlisle Experience as well as innovation that gets us to around 26% EBITDA margin for CCM in the fourth quarter.

然後，正如我所說，價格方面，我們保持平穩，一些負面的原材料讓我們能夠繼續投資，正如克里斯在卡萊爾體驗大會上談到的那樣，以及創新，這將使我們在第四季度的 CCM EBITDA 利潤率達到 26% 左右。

And then on the CWT side, we have revenues down low single -- or I'm sorry, up low single digits overall. We have organic down mid-single digits. And then, obviously, the acquisitions having a positive impact there to get us up low single digits.

然後，在 CWT 方面，我們的收入總體上只有個位數成長——或者，抱歉，是只有個位數成長。我們的有機成長率已降至個位數中段。顯然，收購也產生了正面影響，使我們實現了個位數低成長。

Pricing on CWT side, down slightly less than 1%. No real impact from raw materials in the quarter, and that gets us to the margins down 250 to 300 basis points compared to the prior year as a result of that lower organic volumes.

CWT方面的價格略為下降不到1%。本季原物料沒有產生實際影響，因此，由於有機銷售量下降，利潤率比上年同期下降了 250 至 300 個基點。

That's helpful. And I just wanted to follow up on the destocking piece. Can you speak to your market share in CCM, how you're viewing that relative to the industry and what the outlook is just given the distributor dislocation that's happening right now?

那很有幫助。我只是想就清倉那篇文章做個後續跟進。您能否談談您在 CCM 市場的份額，您如何看待它相對於行業整體的情況，以及考慮到目前分銷商格局的混亂，您認為前景如何？

Yeah, Garik, thanks. Pretty much, as we said, the underlying situation in CCM is pretty much the same. I don't see any long-term market share changes that have occurred right now. If we look at what happened in Q3, and I touched on the things that can occur when you do a transaction, and you also have significant management turnover at really all levels.

是啊，加里克，謝謝。正如我們所說，CCM 的基本情況基本上相同。我目前沒有看到任何長期的市場份額變化。如果我們回顧一下第三季度發生的事情，我談到了進行交易時可能發生的情況，而且各個層級的管理層也出現了重大變動。

We did lose some share in certain areas because of really just being tied to that distributor channel partner. And so very hard for us to change that because -- and at least one of those situations we could confirm that we don't really have any other vehicle to get that to market as directed. They are our choice. So that adage, when they sneeze, we catch a cold, that's what happened there.

由於我們確實在某些地區失去了一些市場份額，因為我們實際上只是受限於某個分銷通路合作夥伴。因此，我們很難改變這種情況，因為——至少在其中一種情況下，我們可以確認，我們確實沒有其他途徑可以按照指示將產品推向市場。這是我們的選擇。所以那句老話說得好，“別人打噴嚏，我們就會感冒”，那裡發生的情況正是如此。

But as I said and as we believe, this is temporary. It happens. We would have expected some turbulence. After a big deal like that, it may continue into the third or fourth quarter.

但正如我所說，也正如我們所相信的，這只是暫時的。這種事時有發生。我們預料到會有一些顛簸。像這樣的大交易之後，可能會持續到第三季或第四季。

But overall, we think they're a great distribution partner. We think it will all get sorted out and we'll be right back in the game where we should be. So a little minor effect maybe Q3, Q4, but long term, no real changes.

但總的來說，我們認為他們是一個很棒的分銷合作夥伴。我們相信一切都會解決，我們會重回正軌，回到我們應該在的位置。所以可能會在第三季、第四季受到一些輕微影響，但從長遠來看，不會有真正的變化。

(Operator Instructions) Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

（操作說明）布萊恩·布萊爾，奧本海默。

If the combination of channel dynamics and competitive influence drives a bit more of a direct model -- direct sale model going forward in the industry, how do you see your team's positioning there? And that are the positives and negatives if that occurs?

如果通路動態和競爭影響的結合推動行業未來更多地採用直接銷售模式，您認為您的團隊在這種模式下的定位是什麼？如果這種情況發生，那麼利弊就有哪些呢？

Well, Brian, I think it already has happened that I think one of our competitors publicly stated that they're already doing something like 30% of their business direct. And we would estimate that many of the other competitors are there. So I think that dynamic is already in place for Carlisle.

布萊恩，我認為這種情況已經發生了，我們的一位競爭對手公開表示，他們已經有大約 30% 的業務是直接銷售的。我們估計其他許多競爭對手也都在那裡。所以我認為卡萊爾已經具備了這種動態。

Frankly, we've lagged. When you look over the years, as recently as probably five years ago, we were probably doing somewhere between 3% and 5% direct. So it wasn't -- our preference has been to work with our distribution partners. They've done a great job for us. We still feel that's the optimal way to do it. But obviously, as our competitors have taken a more direct approach, we have, too.

坦白說，我們落後了。回顧過去幾年，可能就在五年前，我們的直接投資比例大概在 3% 到 5% 之間。所以並非如此——我們一直更傾向於與我們的分銷合作夥伴合作。他們為我們做了很多出色的工作。我們仍然認為這是最佳做法。但很顯然，既然我們的競爭對手採取了更直接的方式，我們也採取了同樣的方式。

So over the years, our team has already reacted. They've done a lot more work to connect directly to the end user. You can see in the Carlisle Experience, we have projects where contractors can directly look at shipments, quoting, things like that. So we can provide that, too.

所以多年來，我們的團隊已經做出了反應。他們做了很多工作來直接與最終用戶建立聯繫。在卡萊爾體驗中心，您可以看到，我們有一些項目，承包商可以直接查看發貨情況、報價等資訊。所以我們也可以提供這項服務。

We ship. As a reminder, 70% of our product direct to the job site. So we're already interfacing directly on that shipment from factory to job sites. So that's fully capable we can do that. But again, our preference has been to sell through distribution and these value distribution partners.

我們提供出貨服務。再次提醒，我們70%的產品直接運往工地。所以我們已經直接對接了從工廠到工地的貨物運輸環節。所以，我們完全有能力做到這一點。但是，我們仍然傾向於透過分銷管道和這些高價值分銷合作夥伴進行銷售。

So we're probably somewhere in that mid-teens direct right now, so about half of what our competitors are doing. And I think we'd like to continue to work with our distributor partners. But as you said, things are changing and we can step up on that model as well.

所以我們現在的直接銷售量大概在十幾美元左右，大概只有競爭對手的一半。我認為我們希望繼續與我們的分銷合作夥伴合作。但正如你所說，情況正在發生變化，我們也可以在這個模式下取得進步。

So one of the things I always liked about Carlisle, we have scale. We have a factory presence warehousing great teams, great sales team, 600-plus reps across the country. So I think from a flexibility standpoint, wherever the market goes, we'll be able to do that. I mean, we're going to follow the lead of the contractor. However they want to buy, we're going to be able to do that for them.

所以，我一直很喜歡卡萊爾的一點是，我們規模很大。我們擁有工廠、倉庫、優秀的團隊、優秀的銷售團隊，以及遍佈全國的 600 多名銷售代表。所以我認為，從彈性的角度來看，無論市場走向何方，我們都能做到這一點。我的意思是，我們要聽從承包商的指示。無論他們想買什麼，我們都能滿足他們的需求。

Tomo Sano, JPMorgan.

Tomo Sano，摩根大通。

I'd like to talk -- ask about the pricing. And you mentioned that for Q4, CCM is expected to be flattish while CWT may decline by about 1%. And so looking ahead to 2021, would you expect new products, innovation products and high-end product launch or other factors to support price increases? Of course, like depending on the demand and volume side, but could you touch about that outlook, please?

我想談談——問問價格方面的情況。您提到，預計第四季度 CCM 將保持平穩，而 CWT 可能會下降約 1%。展望 2021 年，您認為新產品、創新產品和高端產品的推出，還是其他因素會支撐價格上漲？當然，這取決於需求和銷售量，您能否談談這方面的前景？

Yeah. One of the things that we expect out of new products and enhanced customer services that we could extract value from that. That's why we do it. I mean, that's the reason is we are trying to increase the content per square foot in terms of pricing and value. And we will price the value. We've talked about that.

是的。我們希望從新產品和改進的客戶服務中獲得價值。這就是我們這樣做的原因。我的意思是，原因在於我們試圖在價格和價值方面提高每平方英尺的內容。我們將對它的價值進行定價。我們討論過這個問題。

So as we look to 2026, certainly, if the volumes can return to a healthy level, I think we can expect to see us being paid for those advantages. Now, of course, we have to demonstrate the value to the building owner, to the contractor, to the architect. We have to communicate the product enhancements we made or our Carlisle Experience our operational excellence has value. But I think we've done a good job of that.

展望 2026 年，如果銷量能夠恢復到健康水平，我認為我們可以期待看到我們因這些優勢而獲得回報。當然，現在我們必須向業主、承包商和建築師證明其價值。我們必須宣傳我們所做的產品改進，或者說，我們的卡萊爾體驗以及我們卓越的營運能力具有價值。但我認為我們在這方面做得很好。

So the thing for us is really volume. And if you look at what we've always said sets up for a good year is that there is some level of new construction, 0.5%, 1%, but we can't have a declining new construction market.

所以對我們來說，關鍵在於銷售量。我們一直認為，要取得好成績，就需要一定程度的新建築，例如 0.5% 或 1%，但我們不能讓新建築市場下滑。

Second, we want to see rational capacity utilization, which we've seen. I think the market has added factories in a very rational fashion. So that's good. We have labor shortages still, and we think that's important to drive some of this pricing.

其次，我們希望看到合理的產能利用率，而我們已經看到了這一點。我認為市場增加工廠的方式非常理性。那很好。我們仍然面臨勞動力短缺問題，我們認為這對於推動部分價格上漲至關重要。

And then lastly, this increasing reroofing demand continues to be an underlying positive that we can rely on. So I think those things are in place. And the only one that's not in place now really is new construction being positive. So if that turns around in '26, I would expect to see some nice upward momentum on pricing.

最後，不斷增長的屋頂翻新需求仍然是一個我們可以依賴的潛在利多因素。所以我覺得這些事情都已經安排妥當了。而目前唯一尚未實現的，就是新建案對經濟的正面影響。所以如果2026年情況有所好轉，我預計價格將會出現不錯的上漲動能。

Keith Hughes, Truist.

Keith Hughes，Truist。

This disruption with distribution, was this something about inventory levels or price? Or what was the nature of it? And is it fully resolved that we won't feel it again in the first quarter in your results?

這次分銷中斷是因為庫存水準還是價格問題造成的？或者說，它的本質是什麼？你們是否完全確定不會在第一季的業績中再次受到影響？

I don't really know exactly what it was in those situations. I mean, I think each location probably was affected differently and integration is going on, like I said, management team changes and things like that. So across the country could be a variety of issues. You just know that in those situations, we didn't capture the sale.

我不太清楚在那種情況下究竟發生了什麼事。我的意思是，我認為每個地方受到的影響可能都不一樣，而且整合工作正在進行中，就像我說的，管理團隊發生了變化等等。因此，全國各地可能存在各種各樣的問題。你知道，在那些情況下，我們沒能拿下這筆交易。

So I think I would expect because of the group and their expertise and their past experience that doesn't resolved rather quickly. So we've got it going into Q4 and having some effects still. But my guess is they'll get it resolved and the '26 will be a year where they're going to want to come out and be fully intact and operational.

所以我認為，鑑於該團隊的專業知識和過往經驗，這個問題不太可能很快就會解決。所以這種情況已經持續到第四季度，並且仍然會產生一些影響。但我估計他們會解決這個問題，2026 年他們會希望以完整無缺的狀態重新亮相並正常運作。

Okay. And just one question on pricing (inaudible) specifically. There's a lot of stuff going on with MDI and tariffs and anti-dumping and all that kind of stuff. Are you seeing pricing go up there or expected to go up near term with some of these cost pressures?

好的。還有一個關於定價的問題（聽不清楚）。MDI、關稅、反傾銷等等方面有很多事情正在發生。您是否看到那裡的價格上漲，或者預計在近期內，由於這些成本壓力，價格會上漲？

When we look at the raw material trends, and Mehul can comment on this in maybe more detail, but when I look at the trends, it's been kind of a mixed bag. Certainly, MDI in '25 has seen an upward trend on price, but then you've got polyol that's seen maybe a lower trend. And then we go to EPDM polymers and they're on an increase.

當我們觀察原料趨勢時，Mehul 或許可以對此進行更詳細的評論，但就我觀察到的趨勢而言，情況喜憂參半。當然，MDI 在 2025 年的價格呈現上漲趨勢，但多元醇的價格可能呈現下跌趨勢。然後我們來看EPDM聚合物，它們的用量正在增加。

So in general, when I look across our raw material basket, it's probably a little bit more biased towards increases as we go into Q4. Mehul, do you want to add anything to that?

所以總的來說，當我審視我們的原料籃子時，隨著我們進入第四季度，價格上漲的趨勢可能會更加明顯。梅胡爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. Keith, just to add a little bit in terms of MDI and the anti-dumping duties that have been added. So while MDI prices have gone up to the first three quarters and up year over year, I would say, quarter over quarter now it's still flat. So we're not seeing further increases.

是的。Keith，我再補充一點關於MDI和新增的反傾銷稅方面的內容。因此，雖然前三個季度 MDI 價格上漲，而且同比也有所上漲，但就目前而言，季度環比價格仍然持平。所以我們沒有看到進一步的成長。

Just to add a little bit more on your CWT pricing question. Kevin noted that pricing is down less than 1% for CWT. So we're seeing some pricing pressure on select categories, mainly underlayments, which plays in the residential roofing segment, where there's some softer demand as well as on the insulation categories, but it's a very small amount of price.

關於您提出的 CWT 定價問題，我再補充一點。Kevin 指出，CWT 的價格下降了不到 1%。因此，我們看到某些類別的價格面臨一些壓力，主要是底層材料，這在住宅屋頂領域有所體現，該領域的需求有所疲軟，保溫材料類別也是如此，但價格波動幅度非常小。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll hand the call over to Mr. Chris Koch for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題了。我將把電話交給克里斯·科赫先生，請他作總結發言。請繼續。

All right. Thanks, Kelsey. This concludes our third-quarter earnings call. I want to appreciate everyone's time. We know you're busy. Thanks for your participation. Thanks for the great questions, and look forward to speaking with you at our next earnings call.

好的。謝謝你，凱爾西。我們的第三季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝大家抽出時間。我們知道您很忙。感謝您的參與。感謝大家提出的好問題，期待下次財報電話會議與大家交流。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。祝你有美好的一天。