Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

午安.

My name is Constantine, and I will be your conference operator for today.

我叫康斯坦丁，今天我將擔任您的會議接線生。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Carlisle Company's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加卡萊爾公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Mehul Patel, Carlisle's Vice President of Investor Relations.

我想將電話轉給卡萊爾投資者關係副總裁 Mehul Patel 先生。

Mehul, please go ahead.

Mehul，請繼續。

Thank you and good afternoon everyone.

謝謝大家，下午好。

Welcome to Carlisle's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加卡萊爾 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

I'm Mehul Patel, Vice President of Investor Relations for Carlisle.

我是卡萊爾投資者關係副總裁 Mehul Patel。

We released our fourth quarter 2024 financial results today, and you can find both our press release and the presentation for today's call in the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們今天發布了 2024 年第四季度的財務業績，您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到我們的新聞稿和今天電話會議的簡報。

On the call with me today are Chris Koch, our Board Chair, President and CEO; along with Kevin Zdimal, our CFO.

今天與我一起通話的有我們的董事會主席、總裁兼執行長 Chris Koch；以及我們的財務長 Kevin Zdimal。

Today's call will begin with Chris, who will provide key highlights on our fourth quarter and full year '24 results and some commentary on 2025.

今天的電話會議將由克里斯開始，他將介紹我們第四季度和 2024 年全年業績的重點以及對 2025 年的一些評論。

Kevin will follow Chris and provide an overview of our Q4 and full year 2024 financial performance and give an update on our outlook for 2025.

凱文 (Kevin) 將跟隨克里斯 (Chris) 概述我們 2024 年第四季和全年的財務業績，並更新我們對 2025 年的展望。

Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the line for questions.

在我們發表完準備好的發言後，我們將開放提問專線。

But before we begin, please refer to slide 2 of our presentation, where we note that comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations.

但在開始之前，請參閱我們簡報的第 2 張投影片，我們注意到今天的評論將包括基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from these statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our press release and SEC filings.

由於一系列風險和不確定因素，實際結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，這些風險和不確定因素已在我們的新聞稿和美國證券交易委員會文件中進行了討論。

As Carlisle provides non-GAAP financial information, we provided reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and in the appendix of our presentation materials, which are available on our website.

由於卡萊爾提供的是非 GAAP 財務信息，我們在新聞稿和演示材料附錄中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對帳表，這些對帳表可在我們的網站上查閱。

With that, I will turn the call over to Chris.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Mehul.

謝謝你，梅胡爾。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Carlisle's 2024 fourth quarter earnings call.

大家下午好，感謝您參加卡萊爾 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

Turning to slide 3 of the presentation.

翻到簡報的第 3 張投影片。

I would like to start by extending my sincere appreciation to all our Carlisle team members for delivering a very productive start to our Vision 2030 initiatives in 2024, exceeding $20 of adjusted EPS this past year and for completing our pivot in 2024 from a general industrial portfolio of businesses to a pure-play building products company.

首先，我要向卡萊爾團隊的所有成員表示最誠摯的感謝，感謝他們在 2024 年為我們的 2030 願景計劃取得了非常富有成效的開端，去年調整後每股收益超過 20 美元，並於 2024 年完成了從一般工業業務組合向純建築產品公司的轉型。

We're very proud of several key accomplishments the company made over the last year.

我們對公司在過去一年所取得的幾項重要成就感到非常自豪。

To start, 2024 was a historic year for Carlisle as we completed our strategic pivot to a pure-play building products company with the $2 billion sale of CIT in the second quarter.

首先，2024 年對卡萊爾來說是歷史性的一年，因為我們在第二季以 20 億美元出售 CIT，完成了向純建築產品公司的策略轉型。

Our focus on building products has clarified and refined our mission for our employees and investors, highlighted the best-in-class financial performance that our Building Products businesses have delivered for years and provided a clear path to $40 of adjusted EPS in 2030 by adding innovation and a strong M&A playbook to our already well-established and successful pillars of Vision 2025.

我們對建築產品的關注為我們的員工和投資者明確並完善了我們的使命，凸顯了我們的建築產品業務多年來實現的一流財務業績，並通過在我們已經完善和成功的2025願景支柱中增加創新和強大的併購策略，為2030年實現40美元的調整後每股收益提供了清晰的道路。

Carlisle delivered record adjusted EPS of $20.20 in 2024, representing a significant 30% year-over-year increase, driven in part by our growing and recurring revenue stream from reroofing, which was up mid-single digits throughout the year.

2024 年，卡萊爾實現了創紀錄的調整後每股收益 20.20 美元，較上年同期大幅增長 30%，部分原因是我們屋頂翻修業務不斷增長且經常性的收入流，該業務全年均保持中等個位數增長。

We also benefited from the return to more normalized inventory levels and buying patterns within our channels to the contractor.

我們也受益於承包商通路恢復更正常的庫存水準和購買模式。

Our margin performance was also strong this year with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding 150 basis points to a record 26.6%.

今年我們的利潤率表現也很強勁，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 150 個基點，達到創紀錄的 26.6%。

This is even more impressive when we are reminded of two important factors.

當我們回想起兩個重要因素時，這一點就更加令人印象深刻。

First, CWT's margin was substantially impacted by the significant negative trends in the residential markets we serve.

首先，CWT 的利潤率受到我們服務的住宅市場的顯著負面趨勢的嚴重影響。

And second, CCM worked through the well-forecasted but nonetheless negative impact of a low single-digit price decline in commercial markets.

其次，CCM 努力克服商業市場價格低個位數下滑所帶來的雖然預測準確但仍具有負面影響的影響。

We also continued to strengthen our market position in the building envelope space by deploying nearly $700 million of capital into two synergistic acquisitions that added to existing businesses within Carlisle.

我們也投入近 7 億美元的資金進行兩項協同收購，擴大了卡萊爾現有的業務，並持續加強我們在建築圍護結構領域的市場地位。

First, the acquisition of MTL expanded our architectural metal capabilities with the addition of commercial roofing's leading authority on perimeter edge metal.

首先，收購 MTL 擴大了我們的建築金屬產能，增加了商業屋頂在周邊金屬方面的領先權威。

MTL enables us to offer a wide range of prefabricated solutions such as edge metal, facia, coping and composite panels and systems for the building envelope.

MTL 使我們能夠提供各種預製解決方案，例如邊緣金屬、面板、頂蓋和複合板以及建築圍護結構系統。

As the year progressed, we validated the superb fit of MTL's leadership team with Carlisle.

隨著時間的推移，我們驗證了 MTL 領導團隊與卡萊爾的完美契合。

And through our superior integration playbook, we exceeded our expectations on the synergy front and now expect synergies to increase from our initial estimate of $13 million to now well over $20 million.

透過我們卓越的整合策略，我們在協同效應方面超出了我們的預期，現在預計協同效應將從最初估計的 1300 萬美元增加到現在的 2000 萬美元以上。

This acquisition of MTL also further positions Carlisle as an industry leader in the $4 billion architectural metal category.

此次對 MTL 的收購也進一步鞏固了卡萊爾在價值 40 億美元的建築金屬領域的行業領先地位。

Second, our recent acquisition of Plasti-Fab advances our position as the leading vertically integrated manufacturer of expanded polystyrene insulation for the building products market across North America.

其次，我們最近收購了 Plasti-Fab，這提升了我們作為北美建築產品市場領先的發泡聚苯乙烯絕緣材料垂直整合製造商的地位。

Plasti-Fab drives innovation in expanded polystyrene products for commercial, residential and infrastructure construction applications.

Plasti-Fab 推動了商業、住宅和基礎設施建設應用領域的發泡聚苯乙烯產品的創新。

Plasti-Fab's customers seek energy efficiency and contractors and building professionals seek comprehensive solutions.

Plasti-Fab 的客戶尋求能源效率，承包商和建築專業人士尋求全面的解決方案。

As the only vertically integrated expanded polystyrene company in North America, Plasti-Fab meets those needs.

作為北美唯一一家垂直整合的發泡聚苯乙烯公司，Plasti-Fab 滿足了這些需求。

And as with MTL, we expect a superb fit with our existing EPS business and significant synergies currently estimated at $14 million, which we expect to increase as we move through 2025.

與 MTL 一樣，我們預計它將與我們現有的 EPS 業務完美契合，並能產生顯著的協同效應，目前估計為 1400 萬美元，我們預計到 2025 年這一數字將會增加。

Yesterday, we completed the previously announced acquisition of Texas-based expanded polystyrene insulation manufacturer, ThermoFoam, which builds on the recently completed acquisition of Plasti-Fab and leverages Carlisle's vertically integrated expanded polystyrene capabilities while adding geographic coverage in Texas and the South Central United States.

昨天，我們完成了先前宣布的對德克薩斯州發泡聚苯乙烯絕緣材料製造商 ThermoFoam 的收購，該收購以最近完成的對 Plasti-Fab 的收購為基礎，利用卡萊爾垂直整合的發泡聚苯乙烯能力，同時增加在德克薩斯州和美國中南部的地理覆蓋範圍。

Looking at the fourth quarter 2024 performance on slide 4.

查看投影片 4 上的 2024 年第四季的表現。

Carlisle continued to experience broad market headwinds more heavily weighted to the residential new and R&R markets and the commercial new construction markets.

卡萊爾繼續經歷廣泛的市場阻力，尤其集中在住宅新建市場和 R&R 市場以及商業新建市場。

These headwinds included higher interest rates, restricting lending conditions and unfavorable weather patterns.

這些不利因素包括利率上升、貸款條件限制以及不利的天氣狀況。

These factors negatively impacted sales and the results were below our midyear 2024 outlook.

這些因素對銷售產生了負面影響，業績低於我們對 2024 年中期的預期。

Despite this challenging environment, Carlisle's consolidated Q4 revenues of $1.1 billion remained essentially flat year-over-year, and adjusted EPS grew by 7% to a fourth quarter record of $4.47.

儘管面臨如此充滿挑戰的環境，卡萊爾第四季的綜合營收為 11 億美元，與去年同期基本持平，調整後每股收益成長 7%，達到第四季創紀錄的 4.47 美元。

We were pleased to see continued EPS growth as we remain confident in our Vision 2030 journey to $40 of adjusted EPS per share.

我們很高興看到每股收益持續成長，因為我們對實現 2030 願景至每股 40 美元的調整後每股收益充滿信心。

We remain committed to the same principles our stakeholders know well, disciplined capital allocation, a focus on ROIC and growing our businesses both organically and through robust M&A.

我們始終致力於利害關係人熟知的相同原則，即嚴謹的資本配置、專注於投資報酬率 (ROIC) 以及透過有機成長和強勁的併購來發展我們的業務。

Carlisle is well positioned to benefit from widely understood macro trends, including growing commercial reroofing demand, an ongoing housing shortage and our ability to provide innovative, energy-efficient and labor-saving solutions and systems in the years ahead.

卡萊爾完全有能力從廣泛理解的宏觀趨勢中受益，包括不斷增長的商業屋頂翻修需求、持續的住房短缺以及我們在未來幾年提供創新、節能和節省勞動力的解決方案和系統的能力。

Looking ahead to 2025, our Vision 2030 strategy guides our path forward through 4 key elements.

展望2025年，我們的2030願景策略透過四個關鍵要素指引我們前進的道路。

First, we are accelerating innovation focused on energy efficiency and labor-saving solutions.

首先，我們正在加速以能源效率和節省勞動力解決方案為重點的創新。

Nothing exemplifies our commitment to innovation more than our $45 million-plus investment in our new state-of-the-art innovation center in Carlisle, PA.

沒有什麼比我們在賓州卡萊爾新建的最先進的創新中心投資超過 4,500 萬美元更能體現我們對創新的承諾了。

This expansion will provide additional capabilities and resources necessary to accelerate our development of innovative, energy-efficient labor-saving solutions and integrated systems, supporting our goal of generating 25% of revenues from new products introduced within the past 5 years.

此次擴張將提供額外的能力和資源，以加速我們開發創新、節能、節省勞動力的解決方案和整合系統，支持我們從過去5年內推出的新產品中創造25%收入的目標。

Second, we will seek to continue to expand our best-in-class margins by pricing our innovative products and solutions for the value we provide by delivering those innovative products and solutions through the value-enhancing Carlisle experience and by driving operational excellence through the Carlisle Operating System.

其次，我們將透過提升價值的卡萊爾體驗提供創新產品和解決方案，並透過卡萊爾作業系統推動卓越運營，為我們的創新產品和解決方案定價，從而繼續擴大我們一流的利潤率。

Third, we will strategically expand our market positions in the building envelope with a best-in-class M&A process to complement our strong organic growth efforts.

第三，我們將透過一流的併購流程，策略性地擴大我們在建築圍護結構領域的市場地位，以補充我們強勁的有機成長努力。

Our well-defined M&A playbook will continue to drive significant returns on deals and provide a strategic competitive advantage for Carlisle as was exemplified by our successful acquisitions and integrations of Henry, MTL and now Plasti-Fab.

我們明確的併購策略將繼續推動交易的可觀回報，並為卡萊爾提供策略競爭優勢，正如我們成功收購和整合 Henry、MTL 以及現在的 Plasti-Fab 所證明的那樣。

Leveraging our M&A playbook, Carlisle aims to maximize value creation by employing a disciplined integration process and ensuring acquisition targets aligned strategically.

卡萊爾利用我們的併購策略，旨在透過採用規範的整合流程和確保收購目標的策略一致性來最大限度地創造價值。

We achieved this by adhering to four key investment criteria in our selection process.

我們透過在選擇過程中堅持四個關鍵投資標準來實現了這一目標。

As a reminder, those four criteria are: one, a solid organic growth story already underway in the target company. two, a talent management team; three, identified and meaningful hard cost synergies and lastly, the ability to add value through executing the integration with our proven Carlisle M&A playbook.

提醒一下，這四個標準是：一、目標公司已經達到穩健的有機成長。二、人才管理團隊；第三，確定有意義的硬成本協同效應；最後，透過與我們成熟的卡萊爾併購方案進行整合來增加價值的能力。

As a reminder, using our M&A playbook, we have identified over $20 million of synergies through the acquisition of MTL, and we expect more than $14 million of hard cost synergies through the acquisition of Plasti-Fab.

提醒一下，使用我們的併購策略，我們已經透過收購 MTL 確定了超過 2000 萬美元的協同效應，並且我們預計透過收購 Plasti-Fab 可以獲得超過 1400 萬美元的硬成本協同效應。

In 2025, we expect to add approximately $1 of EPS through these recent acquisitions.

到 2025 年，我們預計透過最近的收購將增加約 1 美元的每股盈餘。

And fourth, we remain committed to delivering superior results through disciplined capital deployment, balancing growth investments with shareholder returns, Carlisle deployed nearly $700 million this year into strategic acquisitions and returned $1.8 billion to shareholders in 2024 through share buybacks and increased dividends.

第四，我們將繼續致力於透過嚴格的資本配置實現卓越的業績，平衡成長投資與股東回報，卡萊爾今年已投入近 7 億美元用於戰略收購，並將在 2024 年透過股票回購和增加股息向股東返還 18 億美元。

Now let's turn to 2025.

現在讓我們展望2025年。

We expect the market challenges we experienced during the fourth quarter to continue through the first half of 2025.

我們預計第四季遇到的市場挑戰將持續到 2025 年上半年。

We are also continuing to digest the recent actions taken by the new administration on tariffs in recent days.

我們也正在繼續消化最近幾天新政府在關稅方面採取的最新行動。

With over 90% of our sales in the US and less than 10% of our raw materials sourced outside of the US., we expect little direct impact from the tariffs.

我們 90% 以上的銷售額都來自美國，不到 10% 的原材料來自美國境外，因此我們預計關稅幾乎不會產生直接影響。

However, we are concerned about how the tariffs may impact consumers in the residential space who are already under pressure and the potential impact the tariffs may have on interest rates in all our served markets.

然而，我們擔心關稅可能對已經承受壓力的住宅消費者產生影響，以及關稅可能對我們所有服務市場的利率產生的潛在影響。

That said, recent indicators make us cautiously optimistic that 2025 will be another record year we expect that positive trend to continue into 2026 and 2027, given Carlisle's ability to deliver solutions that address the significant housing and labor shortages, necessary energy efficiency improvements in buildings, and an increasingly volatile environmental backdrop.

儘管如此，最近的指標讓我們謹慎樂觀地認為，2025 年將是另一個創紀錄的一年，我們預計這種積極趨勢將持續到 2026 年和 2027 年，因為卡萊爾有能力提供解決方案，解決嚴重的住房和勞動力短缺、建築物必要的能源效率改進以及日益不穩定的環境背景。

Our latest Carlisle market survey of over 500 market participants in early January indicated positive 2025 volume expectations for commercial roofing driven more by reroofing the new construction.

我們在 1 月初對超過 500 名市場參與者進行的最新卡萊爾市場調查顯示，2025 年商業屋頂的銷售預期將呈現正增長，這主要得益於新建築的屋頂翻修。

Based on the results of our survey we expect a slow start to the year with Q1 flat when excluding any negative impact from weather.

根據我們的調查結果，我們預計今年開局將會比較緩慢，若排除天氣的負面影響，第一季的銷售量將持平。

And then we expect growth to build through the rest of the year to deliver an overall low single-digit increase in volume for 2025.

我們預計，今年剩餘時間內將繼續保持成長勢頭，到 2025 年，整體銷售將實現低個位數成長。

Consistent with our September 2024 market survey, contractors still expect low single-digit price increases beginning in the second quarter.

與我們 2024 年 9 月的市場調查一致，承包商仍預計從第二季開始價格將出現個位數的低幅上漲。

Additionally, inventory in the channel is lower by historical comparisons due to higher carrying costs.

此外，由於持有成本較高，與歷史資料相比，通路庫存較低。

A pickup in inventory stocking should be expected as the channel leans into the summer construction season in mid to late Q2.

隨著第二季中後期渠道進入夏季建築旺季，庫存預計會增加。

On the residential side, the Carlisle market survey indicates flat to low single-digit volume growth for 2025 with the first half down low single digits and the second half up low to mid-single digits as residential markets rebound.

在住宅方面，卡萊爾市場調查顯示，隨著住宅市場的反彈，2025 年的銷售成長將持平至低個位數，上半年將降低個位數，下半年將上升低至中個位數。

In addition, while some indicators are mixed, we expect conditions to stabilize as we progress through the year, and obtain a better understanding of the impact of tariffs on anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the impact of the new administration's actions on US consumers.

此外，雖然一些指標好壞參半，但我們預計隨著時間的推移，情況將會趨於穩定，我們將更了解關稅對預期聯準會降息的影響以及新政府的行動對美國消費者的影響。

In addition to the negative impact the tariffs and rising for outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025, we are monitoring how the new administration's potential policies may impact labor.

除了關稅帶來的負面影響以及聯準會 2025 年降息前景上升之外，我們還在關注新政府的潛在政策可能如何影響勞動力。

Currently, builders are already contending with a labor shortage that could potentially get worse with the administration's proposed actions related to undocumented immigrants, we've seen estimates of about 30% of construction workers or immigrants and a significant may be undocumented.

目前，建築商已開始面臨勞動力短缺的問題，而政府針對無證移民的行動可能會使這一問題進一步惡化，據我們估計，大約有 30% 的建築工人或移民，而且相當一部分可能是無證移民。

As we look into 2024, Carlisle will continue to focus our efforts on the factors that are in our control, maintain resiliency in our businesses through advancements in new product introductions, cross-selling and market penetration into CWT and our Architectural Metals businesses.

展望 2024 年，卡萊爾將繼續把精力集中在我們能夠控制的因素上，透過新產品的推出、交叉銷售和向 CWT 和建築金屬業務的市場滲透來保持業務的彈性。

We will combine these share gain initiatives with our increased focus on innovation and our second decade of utilizing the Carlisle Operating System to drive productivity and efficiencies to support our margins.

我們將這些份額成長計劃與我們對創新的高度重視以及我們在第二個十年利用卡萊爾操作系統來提高生產力和效率以支持我們的利潤率相結合。

Overall, the underlying fundamentals supporting our long-term growth remains strong, anchored by the pillars of Vision 2030, which include our commitment to innovation, provided through the Carlisle experience, operational excellence through the Carlisle operating system and strategic and accretive M&A.

總體而言，支撐我們長期成長的基本面依然強勁，並以「2030 願景」為支柱，其中包括我們透過卡萊爾經驗實現的創新承諾、透過卡萊爾營運系統實現的卓越營運以及策略性和增值性的併購。

Combined with our strong balance sheet and clear strategic vision, we are well positioned to drive sustained growth and create value for all our stakeholders as we progress towards our Vision 2030 goals.

結合我們強勁的資產負債表和清晰的策略願景，我們在實現 2030 願景目標的過程中，完全有能力推動持續成長並為所有利害關係人創造價值。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Kevin to provide additional financial details and color on our outlook for 2025.

接下來，我將把時間交給凱文 (Kevin)，讓他提供更多財務細節以及我們對 2025 年的展望。

Kevin?

凱文？

Thank you, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

We are extremely pleased with our results for the full year 2024, where we achieved record adjusted EPS of $20.20, up 30% from 2023 and revenue growth of 9%, including organic growth of 7%.

我們對 2024 年全年業績感到非常滿意，實現了創紀錄的調整後每股收益 20.20 美元，較 2023 年增長 30%，收入增長 9%，其中有機增長 7%。

Record adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.6% up 150 basis points from the prior year.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 26.6%，較上年同期上升 150 個基點。

Strong free cash flow margin of 18.8% and solid ROIC of 28.5%.

強勁的自由現金流利潤率達 18.8% ，投資回報率 (ROIC) 達 28.5% 。

Our 2024 results demonstrate strong early progress towards our Vision 2030 goals.

我們的 2024 年業績表明，我們在實現 2030 年願景目標方面取得了顯著進展。

That growth and adjust puts us firmly on track toward our adjusted EPS target of $40, the 150 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin reflects the success of our pricing discipline and operational efficiency initiatives through the Carlisle Operating System.

這種成長和調整使我們堅定地朝著 40 美元的調整後每股收益目標前進，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 150 個基點反映了我們透過卡萊爾作業系統實施的定價紀律和營運效率舉措所取得的成功。

Our free cash flow margin of 18.8% also aligns with our Vision 2030 goals, providing us with continued flexibility to invest in growth while returning capital to shareholders.

我們的自由現金流利潤率為 18.8%，也符合我們的「2030 願景」目標，為我們提供了持續的靈活性，可以投資於成長，同時向股東返還資本。

Moving to slides 7 through 9.

移至投影片 7 至 9。

Fourth quarter consolidated revenues of $1.1 billion were essentially flat year-over-year.

第四季綜合營收為 11 億美元，與去年同期基本持平。

CCM revenues grew 2%, driven by the acquisition of MTL, which more than offset challenging new construction activity.

受 MTL 收購的推動，CCM 收入成長了 2%，足以抵消新建築活動帶來的挑戰。

CWT's markets were negatively impacted by higher interest rates, housing affordability and unfavorable weather conditions.

利率上升、住房負擔能力下降以及不利的天氣條件對 CWT 的市場產生了負面影響。

CWT's revenues were down 7% in the quarter, primarily as a result of the softer residential end markets and price.

本季度，CWT 的營收下降了 7%，主要原因是住宅終端市場和價格疲軟。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 25.1% and a 130 basis points year-over-year decline due to lower volumes, negative price cost in the quarter and unfavorable mix.

第四季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 25.1%，年減 130 個基點，原因是本季銷售下降、價格成本為負以及產品組合不利。

CCM's adjusted EBITDA margin was 29.4%, while CWT delivered an 18.3% adjusted EBITDA margin.

CCM 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 29.4%，而 CWT 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 18.3%。

For your reference, slide 10 and 11 provide the year-over-year fourth quarter and full year adjusted EPS bridges.

供您參考，投影片 10 和 11 提供了去年同期第四季和全年調整的每股收益橋。

Moving to slides 12 through 14.

移至投影片 12 至 14。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $754 million in cash, $1 billion available under our revolving credit facility and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.8 times.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，擁有 7.54 億美元現金、10 億美元循環信貸額度，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 0.8 倍。

During 2024, we produced free cash flow of $938 million, deployed nearly $700 million towards acquisitions, repurchased $1.6 billion of shares and paid $172 million in dividends, while maintaining strategic flexibility for continued M&A activity.

2024 年，我們產生了 9.38 億美元的自由現金流，部署了近 7 億美元用於收購，回購了 16 億美元的股票並支付了 1.72 億美元的股息，同時保持了繼續進行併購活動的戰略靈活性。

We have 3.5 million shares available for repurchase under our share repurchase program.

根據我們的股票回購計劃，我們有 350 萬股可供回購。

Now moving to our 2025 financial outlook on slide 15.

現在轉到第 15 頁的 2025 年財務展望。

For CCM, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth driven by continued strength in reroofing activity and the full year benefit from the MTL acquisition.

對於 CCM 而言，我們預計其收入將實現中等個位數成長，這得益於屋頂翻修活動的持續強勁以及 MTL 收購帶來的全年收益。

We expect to expand margins via price increases, volume leverage and operational efficiencies.

我們希望透過提高價格、擴大銷售量和提高營運效率來擴大利潤率。

For CWT, we expect high single-digit revenue growth driven by the full year impact of the acquisitions of Plasti-Fab and ThermaFoam.

對於 CWT 而言，我們預計受收購 Plasti-Fab 和 ThermaFoam 的全年影響，其營收將實現高個位數成長。

We expect margin improvement from acquisition synergies and and leveraging the Carlisle Operating System, including automation in our factories.

我們預計，透過收購協同效應以及利用卡萊爾作業系統（包括我們工廠的自動化）可以提高利潤率。

We expect consolidated revenues to grow mid-single digits weighted towards the back half of the year. driven by solid reroofing demand, price increases and the full year contribution from our recent acquisitions.

我們預計，下半年綜合收入將實現中等個位數成長。這主要得益於強勁的屋頂翻修需求、價格上漲以及近期收購帶來的全年貢獻。

Additionally, continued focus on COS, operational efficiencies and acquisition synergies are expected to drive approximately 50 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

此外，繼續關注 COS、營運效率和收購協同效應預計將推動調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大約 50 個基點。

This also factors in an expected 50% year-over-year increase in R&D expense to support an increasing pipeline of innovative new products.

這也考慮到預計研發費用將年增 50%，以支持不斷增加的創新新產品線。

Overall, this outlook puts us on track to achieve double-digit EPS growth and another record year on our way to achieving our Vision 2030 goals.

總體而言，這一前景使我們有望實現兩位數的每股收益成長，並在實現「2030 願景」目標的道路上再創紀錄一年。

In summary, 2024 was a record year for Carlisle with $20.20 of adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.6%.

總而言之，2024 年是卡萊爾創紀錄的一年，調整後每股收益為 20.20 美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 26.6%。

As we enter 2025 uncertainty in the broader economy, including broader economic impact from recently announced tariffs and the timing of potential interest rate cuts as our customers taking a wait-and-see approach to projects.

隨著我們進入 2025 年，整體經濟狀況變得不確定，包括最近宣布的關稅帶來的更廣泛的經濟影響，以及由於我們的客戶對專案採取觀望態度而可能降息的時機。

However, we have solid plans in place and are focusing on the initiatives that are in our control to drive above-market growth through innovative products, synergistic acquisitions and the Carlisle experience and expand margins by leveraging the Carlisle operating system.

然而，我們已經制定了周密的計劃，並專注於我們能夠控制的舉措，透過創新產品、協同收購和卡萊爾經驗推動高於市場的成長，並利用卡萊爾作業系統來擴大利潤率。

With that, I turn it over to Chris for closing remarks.

最後，我將發言權交給克里斯，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, Kevin.

謝謝你，凱文。

In conclusion, while we faced headwinds in the fourth quarter of 2024, our full year 2024 record performance demonstrates the resilience of the Carlisle business model and the success of our strategic pivot to a leading pure play building products company.

總而言之，雖然我們在 2024 年第四季度面臨阻力，但我們 2024 年全年創紀錄的業績證明了卡萊爾商業模式的韌性以及我們向領先的純建築產品公司戰略轉型的成功。

As we enter 2025, we remain confident in our ability to drive sustainable growth through our Vision 2030 initiatives, focusing on innovation, operational excellence, organic growth, and strategic acquisitions.

進入 2025 年，我們仍然有信心透過「2030 願景」計畫推動永續成長，專注於創新、卓越營運、有機成長和策略收購。

I would once again like to take this opportunity to thank all of our Carlisle employees for their exceptional efforts and perseverance throughout 2024.

我想再次藉此機會感謝卡萊爾所有員工在 2024 年的出色努力和堅持不懈。

Your dedication has been instrumental in achieving our strong results and positioning us for further success in the years ahead.

您的奉獻精神對我們取得出色的業績以及在未來幾年取得更大成功起到了重要作用。

Thank you all as well for your continued support and interest in Carlisle.

也感謝大家對卡萊爾的持續支持與關注。

That concludes our formal comments, operator, we are now ready for questions.

接線員，我們的正式評論到此結束，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Timothy Wojs, Baird.

提摩西‧沃伊斯，貝爾德。

Hey everybody, good afternoon.

大家好，下午好。

Thanks for the, all the follow up on the call.

感謝您對此通話的所有跟進。

Maybe just first question, as you think about -- I think you said in your remarks, Chris, pricing was down low single digits in 2024 in CCM.

也許只是第一個問題，正如您所想的 - 我認為您在您的評論中說過，克里斯，2024 年 CCM 的價格下降了個位數。

I guess, was it -- did it get any better in the fourth quarter?

我想，第四季的情況有好轉嗎？

And I guess the reason I'm asking is -- it seems like you do need some price to kind of stick this year to kind of get margin expansion to offset raw material inflation.

我猜我問這個問題的原因是——看起來你確實需要今年保持某種價格不變，以便利潤率擴大，從而抵消原材料通膨。

Talk through how pricing has kind of tracked and what maybe gives you confidence that we could start to see some positive price this year.

討論一下價格走勢如何，以及什麼可能讓您有信心今年我們能開始看到一些正面的價格。

Yeah, for sure.

是的，當然。

Kevin, can you into greater detail, but it improved through the year.

凱文，你能否更詳細地講一下，但它在今年有所改善。

And I think that says it all, right?

我想這已經說明了一切，對吧？

It got better and better as we went through the year.

隨著時間的流逝，情況變得越來越好。

And I think our then your second comment about we need to 2025 should help and we look at our market survey that we did here in the middle of January, we were pleased to see that while we probably wouldn't get any in Q1 just because of the timing of the announced price increases in December and then how they get quoted, it would likely hit more in the March-April timeframe that there was still expectation that there will be traction on the price hikes as demand recovered as we got later into Q2.

我認為您關於 2025 年的第二條評論應該會有所幫助，我們查看了我們在 1 月中旬進行的市場調查，我們很高興地看到，雖然我們可能不會在第一季度獲得任何收益，僅僅是因為 12 月宣布漲價的時間以及它們的報價方式，但在 3 月至 4 月期間，漲幅可能會有所上漲，因為隨著進入第二季價格後期上漲，人們會有所預期上漲。

So I think that's another thing that when you look at how the year plays out, obviously, as we get into the construction season, if demand is there.

因此，我認為，當你觀察今年的情況時，顯然，當我們進入建築季節時，如果有需求，那就是另一回事。

Inventories are still what we'd say probably historically light, and so as we go into the year, if demand is there, light inventory situation, maybe some stock in helps out to with that pricing.

我們認為庫存仍處於歷史低位，因此，隨著新年的到來，如果有需求，庫存較少，也許一些庫存有助於定價。

So that's kind of how we see the year playing out.

這就是我們對今年局勢的看法。

Yeah.

是的。

And Tim, as far as our guide for the first quarter, we're expecting pricing to be down just from the carryover that pricing would be down in the first quarter, 1%.

提姆，就我們對第一季的預測而言，我們預計價格將從第一季的結轉下降 1%。

And then as Chris said, as we get the price increases into the season really that's where it flattens in the second quarter and then start seeing a benefit from the price increases in the second half of the year.

正如克里斯所說，隨著價格進入旺季，價格實際上會在第二季度趨於平穩，然後在下半年開始看到價格上漲的好處。

Okay.

好的。

So we should also kind of assume that you're probably somewhat price cost negative in the first half of the year as well.

因此，我們也應該假設今年上半年的價格成本可能也會出現一定程度的負成長。

And then that builds as organic growth gets better in price fix.

然後，隨著有機成長在價格定位方面變得更好，這種情況就會逐漸形成。

.

。

Right.

正確的。

We start to definitely negative in the first quarter and then second quarter starting to flat and then, yes, benefit in the second half of the year.

我們在第一季就明顯開始出現負成長，然後第二季開始持平，然後在下半年開始出現獲利。

Tim, on the raws thing, when you think about you just maybe address it right now as far as where raws are, we're thinking neutral for 25 overall.

提姆，關於原始問題，當您考慮現在可能要解決的問題時，就原始問題而言，我們認為總體上 25 個是中立的。

We've got some things that you're probably well aware of, we've got this ATO flame return in PVC that already is experiencing price increases in the industry just because of the raw material increases that comes due to China restricting imports in that.

我們有一些事情可能你們已經很清楚了，我們發現 PVC 中的 ATO 火焰回歸已經導致行業價格上漲，這僅僅是因為中國限制進口導致原材料價格上漲。

We've got some other fire returns in polyester, but then we've got other areas where we're seeing flat to declines.

聚酯纖維領域也出現了一些火災回升，但其他領域的火災則呈現持平或下降趨勢。

And so across the board, I think our outlook for raws is pretty stable with all the puts and takes pretty stable for the year.

因此，總體而言，我認為我們對原材料的前景非常穩定，今年的所有投入和產出都相當穩定。

Okay.

好的。

So price cost -- so basically, raw material should be stable and actually price cost could be positive.

因此價格成本——基本上，原材料應該是穩定的，實際上價格成本可能是正的。

Is that what you're saying?

你是這個意思嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

I would say -- yes, and I would say we're heavily weighted second half.

我想說 - 是的，我想說我們非常重視下半場。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Got you.

明白了。

And then just the last one, just what's built in for capital deployment and guidance, I guess, in the 10%-plus EPS growth comment, what's in there for buybacks?

然後是最後一個，我猜，在 10% 以上的每股盈餘成長評論中，對於資本部署和指導，其中有什麼用於回購的內容？

And have you marked anything for M&A in that number?

您是否在該號碼中標記了任何與 M&A 相關的內容？

.

。

Yeah, I think we'd like to see something similar to 2024 on M&A.

是的，我認為我們希望看到與 2024 年類似的併購現象。

At least to summarize acquisitions.

至少要總結一下收購情況。

On CapEx, I think we're thinking around $150 million, could be a little bit more than that.

在資本支出方面，我認為我們考慮的金額在 1.5 億美元左右，也可能略多一些。

We've got -- it depends on how quickly R&D accelerates.

這取決於研發加速的速度。

And then I would say on buybacks, we probably target around $800 million in buybacks for the year.

然後我想說的是，關於回購，我們今年的回購目標可能是 8 億美元左右。

I mean for those buybacks, probably it will be more half loaded on the share buybacks.

我的意思是，對於那些回購而言，可能其中一半以上的資金將用於股票回購。

The part of the acquisitions is preset similar levels is what we're looking at.

我們正在考慮的部分收購是預設的類似水準。

That's obviously not in our guide that we put out for the full year revenue guidance.

這顯然不在我們發布的全年收入指引之內。

But overall, we're looking to do similar types of acquisitions in 2025.

但總體而言，我們希望在 2025 年進行類似類型的收購。

Okay.

好的。

So the 1 million of buybacks is in and M&A would be incremental?

那麼，100 萬的回購已經完成，而併購將是增量的嗎？

.

。

Correct.

正確的。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

I'll back in here.

我會回到這裡。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

布萊恩布萊爾，奧本海默。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Afternoon guys.

大家下午好。

Hey, good afternoon, Brian.

嘿，下午好，布萊恩。

So level set a bit on CCM volume trends, maybe you can offer a little more detail on how monthly revenues shake out in Q4.

因此，對 CCM 數量趨勢進行一些了解，也許您可以提供一些有關第四季度月度收入如何變化的更多細節。

Our checks kind of suggested a lot of volatility, incremental project deferrals, specifically in November.

我們的檢查顯示存在很大的波動性，項目延期現象增多，特別是在 11 月。

Just curious if that was reflected in your order cadence.

只是好奇這是否反映在您的訂單節奏中。

And then more importantly, what you're seeing or what you saw through December and into January and if there's any variance versus that kind of flattish Q1 volume expectation that you cited.

然後更重要的是，您看到的情況，或者您在 12 月和 1 月看到的情況，以及與您提到的持平的第一季銷售預期相比是否存在任何差異。

Yeah.

是的。

I think when you went through the quarter, I think we got actually increasingly optimistic about the quarter.

我認為，當你經歷這個季度時，我認為我們實際上對這個季度越來越樂觀。

So maybe that contradicts yours a little bit.

所以這可能和你的觀點有一點矛盾。

I can't give you the exact order trends.

我無法給你確切的訂單趨勢。

But I think as we got through November and that after the election, I think there was more certainty.

但我認為，隨著十一月的到來和大選的結束，情況會更加確定。

And maybe that's not the only driver, but I think I would say that it got more positive as we went to the end of the year.

或許這不是唯一的驅動因素，但我認為，隨著年底的臨近，這種趨勢會變得更加積極。

And then as we look out for the first quarter, I think Kevin talked about it that we don't really see a lot of volume in the first quarter.

然後，當我們展望第一季時，我想凱文說過，我們在第一季並沒有看到太多的交易量。

I think there's a few things that are still happening.

我認為有些事情仍在發生。

I mean these macroeconomic conditions that really and I think you recall, we were more optimistic when we ended the second quarter, and then we didn't get the rate cuts.

我的意思是這些宏觀經濟條件確實如此，我想你還記得，當我們在第二季結束時我們更加樂觀，但我們並沒有降息。

We had a few other things that happened with the election.

選舉期間還發生了一些其他事情。

And I think that, to your point on delays, I wouldn't argue with that caused trepidation.

我認為，對於您提到的延誤，我不會爭論這是否會引起人們的擔憂。

For sure, it caused people to bring less inventory in.

確實，這導致人們進口的庫存減少。

But I think what we're seeing in our Carlisle market survey is that at least on the reroofing side, still 70% of our commercial business.

但我認為，我們在卡萊爾市場調查中看到，至少在翻修屋頂方面，它仍然占我們商業業務的 70%。

It hasn't really slowed down.

它實際上並沒有減慢速度。

We've -- that's been very resilient, and it's been on the news.

我們 — — 它一直都非常有彈性，並且已經上了新聞。

So hopefully, as we get into the year and things get more stable, then the new kicks in as well.

因此，我們希望，隨著新年的到來，一切會變得更加穩定，然後新的一切也會隨之而來。

The Henry side is a little bit different.

亨利方面略有不同。

Obviously, the construction -- the new construction related to interest rates and people moving and housing prices is probably not improving as fast as we wanted.

顯然，與利率、人口遷移和房價相關的新建築可能沒有像我們所希望的那樣快速改善。

We've got some indications to the consumer spending hasn't been exactly great.

我們發現一些跡象顯示消費者支出並不十分理想。

You can see that in all sorts of different products that are out there, and we see it through the retail chain.

你可以在市面上各種不同的產品中看到這一點，我們也可以透過零售鏈看到這一點。

And then weather surprisingly -- Mehul can talk about this if you'd like more detail.

然後天氣令人驚訝——如果您想了解更多細節，Mehul 可以談論這個問題。

He was at Henry for 19 years.

他在亨利工作了19年。

The dry weather on the West Coast had an impact on the roof coatings business.

西海岸的乾燥天氣對屋頂塗料業務造成了影響。

So that kind of gives you the CWT cadence as well.

所以這也給你提供了 CWT 節奏。

I would say it didn't really have the same.

我想說的是，它確實沒有什麼相同之處。

I think it'd be more.

我認為會更多。

I was more positive on the reroofing and on the CCM side than I would say I was on the CWT side as we ended the year.

截至年底，我對翻修屋頂和 CCM 方面的態度比對 CWT 方面的態度更為積極。

Yeah.

是的。

Appreciate the detail there.

感謝那裡的細節。

You've offered helpful color on your top line dynamics for your price/cost cadence.

您已經為您的價格/成本節奏的頂線動態提供了有用的信息。

Did I hear you correctly that the base case assumptions that you've built in for the full year, understanding first versus second half dynamics, is that price/cost is about neutral?

我是否聽得正確？

Is that the case?

是嗎？

And then to ask directly on the segments, within the 50 basis point consolidated margin expansion, how should we think about the CCM versus CWT in that bridge?

然後直接詢問各個部分，在 50 個基點的合併利潤率擴張範圍內，我們應該如何看待該橋樑中的 CCM 與 CWT？

Well, I think on the first question, we're seeing -- I think that's what Tim ended with a little bit of positive price and neutral on ROS.

嗯，我認為關於第一個問題，我們看到了 - 我認為這就是蒂姆對價格持一點積極態度並對 ROS 持中立態度的結果。

So it gets us full year a more, I would say, positive price ROS, positive on the price over the ROS.

因此，我想說，這讓我們全年獲得了更積極的價格 ROS，價格超過 ROS 是積極的結果。

And much of that, like you said, is going to be in the second half.

正如您所說，其中大部分將發生在下半年。

And then Kevin can take the second question.

然後凱文可以回答第二個問題。

Yeah.

是的。

For between the two segments, it's pretty much the exact same story on both the price/cost, looking at it for first half, second half and also being positive overall price/cost in both segments for '25.

對於這兩個部分而言，價格/成本的情況幾乎完全相同，從上半年和下半年來看，25年兩個部分的整體價格/成本均為正。

Understood.

明白了。

Thanks again.

再次感謝。

You bet.

當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Saree Boroditsky, Jefferies.

薩裡‧博羅迪茨基 (Saree Boroditsky)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Hi, thanks for taking the question.

你好，謝謝你回答這個問題。

I'm just building on the margin improvement commentary there, I believe you have some headwinds from the acquisition.

我只是基於那裡的利潤率改善評論，我相信你們在收購方面遇到了一些阻力。

So maybe just what you're seeing from an underlying margin improvement story, excluding the dilutive impact of acquisitions.

因此，也許您只是從潛在的利潤率改善情況中看到的，不包括收購的稀釋影響。

Yeah, it's going to be -- we are looking to get volume on the top side and leveraging that with the Carlisle Operating System, which will be a benefit.

是的，我們希望獲得頂部的銷量，並利用卡萊爾作業系統，這將是一個好處。

The price/costs we've been talking about, that's also a benefit.

我們一直在談論的價格/成本，這也是一個好處。

And as you say, even though the MTL acquisitions are 25%, that's obviously a nice number.

正如您所說，儘管 MTL 收購率只有 25%，但這顯然是一個不錯的數字。

EBITDA is 25%.

EBITDA為25%。

But when you compare that to the rest of CCM segment, it's dilutive for it but still attractive number there.

但當你將其與 CCM 部分的其他部分進行比較時，雖然對其具有稀釋作用，但仍然具有吸引力。

So overall, looking at 50 basis points of improvement in both the CCM and CWT segments.

總體而言，CCM 和 CWT 部分均提高了 50 個基點。

And then just to clarify -- sorry, this was just confusing on my end.

然後只是為了澄清 - 抱歉，這只是我這邊造成的混淆。

But within your guidance for mid-single-digit growth for the full year and then flat sales first quarter, could you help us understand the top line impact from acquisitions versus underlying demand or volume for the first quarter and then for the full year as well?

但是，在您預期的全年中個位數成長和第一季度持平的銷售業績中，您能否幫助我們了解收購對第一季以及全年的潛在需求或銷售的影響？

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's a good question, Saree.

這是個好問題，莎莉。

Full year, it's -- yes.

全年，是的—是的。

Obviously, CCM, I'll do it by segment.

顯然，CCM，我會分段進行。

CCM, it's going to be a bigger impact in the first half of the year in that we acquired MTL in May.

CCM，由於我們在五月收購了MTL，因此這將對上半年產生更大的影響。

So no second half impact for CCM on acquisitions.

因此下半年收購對 CCM 不會產生影響。

About $25 million in the first quarter and then $20 million is incremental in the second quarter.

第一季約 2,500 萬美元，第二季增量為 2,000 萬美元。

So that's on the CCM side.

這是在 CCM 方面。

On CWT, just over $100 million for the full year of M&A, and it's more of our typical split that the second and third quarters are stronger than the first and fourth quarters there.

對於 CWT 來說，全年的併購金額略高於 1 億美元，這更符合我們的典型分佈，即第二季和第三季的表現強於第一季和第四季。

Thanks, that's very helpful.

謝謝，這很有幫助。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Garik Shmois, Loop Capital.

Garik Shmois，Loop Capital。

Oh hi, thanks.

噢，嗨，謝謝。

On CWT, just wondering if you -- on CWT, I'm just hoping you can go into a little bit more detail on your assumptions regarding volume and price in '25.

關於 CWT，我只是想知道您是否 - 關於 CWT，我只是希望您可以更詳細地說明您對 25 年銷量和價格的假設。

And if I remember correctly, I think insulation pricing had been a bit of headwind for the last several quarters, specifically to that.

如果我沒記錯的話，我認為過去幾季絕緣材料的價格一直有點不利，特別是這一點。

Has that started to stabilize at all?

情況已經開始穩定了嗎？

Or do you continue to see pressure in the fourth quarter?

或者您認為第四季仍面臨壓力？

Well, Mehul can get into some of the detail.

好吧，Mehul 可以講講一些細節。

I just hit the polyurethane that you're talking about, the spray foam insulation.

我剛剛談到了您所說的聚氨酯，即噴塗泡沫絕緣材料。

Yes, I would say '24 was not we were in and around that low teens decline.

是的，我想說，『24』並不是我們所處在低十幾歲的衰退時期。

I think we have -- well, I don't think.

我認為我們已經——嗯，我不這麼認為。

I know we put in a new leader about a quarter ago.

我知道我們大約一個季度前任命了一位新領導人。

And we've got a different approach, I would say, to how we're going to handle distribution as well as maybe some more direct sales to contractors.

我想說，我們對如何處理分銷以及可能向承包商進行更多直接銷售採取了不同的方法。

And the industry actually is still in pretty good shape.

事實上，該行業狀況仍然良好。

I mean it's a great solution.

我的意思是這是一個很好的解決方案。

We've got great market growth.

我們的市場取得了巨大的成長。

The issue has been, I think, really our go-to-market strategy and emphasizing the technological differences, which there are some between Carlisle and other products.

我認為，問題實際上在於我們的行銷策略以及強調技術差異，卡萊爾與其他產品之間存在一些技術差異。

So I think we'll see improvements in that segment, which should help us in '25.

因此我認為我們會看到該領域的改善，這應該會對我們在25年有所幫助。

But Mehul, you want to...

但是 Mehul，你想…

Yeah.

是的。

So Garik, on CWT, as you know, we, in our guide, have high single digits growth for CWT.

Garik，關於 CWT，正如你所知，在我們的指導中，CWT 實現了高個位數的成長。

The biggest driver there is going to be M&A for both our Plasti-Fab and ThermaFoam.

最大的驅動力將是我們 Plasti-Fab 和 ThermaFoam 的併購。

We're pretty much going to get the full year impact there.

我們基本上會在那裡獲得全年的影響。

That's going to be up high single digits.

這將會上升至個位數。

Overall, the market, the way we see it, what we're seeing in the deterioration in macro conditions in the second half of this year, that's going to continue into the first half of this year.

整體而言，我們認為今年下半年宏觀環境的惡化將持續到今年上半年。

But then we see based on our market data reads with what we see with the end markets and contractors, they feel more optimistic in the second half.

但根據我們的市場數據以及終端市場和承包商的情況，我們發現他們對下半年更樂觀。

But you put those together, the markets will be flat.

但如果你把這些放在一起，市場就會變得穩定。

And then similarly to CCM, we do have some price increase announcements on CWT, which will add about 50 to 100 basis points.

與 CCM 類似，我們確實發布了一些有關 CWT 的價格上漲公告，漲幅約為 50 到 100 個基點。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then just on a follow-up from an earlier comment you made, Chris, just with respect to some of the near term.

然後，克里斯，針對您之前所做的評論進行後續跟進，只是關於一些近期的問題。

Maybe the bidding activity or the outlook got a little bit better as the fourth quarter progressed here.

也許隨著第四季的進展，競標活動或前景會有所改善。

Wondering if you can go into a little bit more detail there.

想知道您是否可以更詳細地講解一下。

Is it certain verticals?

它是某些垂直行業嗎？

Or is it more on the reroofing side versus new construction?

或者說，與新建築相比，它更多是專注於翻修屋頂？

And maybe just your thoughts on -- should we expect in '25 kind of a continuation of strength on reroofing and softness in new construction?

也許只是您的想法——我們是否應該期待 25 年屋頂翻修工程繼續保持強勁，而新建築工程保持疲軟？

Or would you expect new construction to start to show some growth as you move through the year?

或者您預計隨著時間的推移，新建築將開始呈現一定的成長？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean I think when we have -- Kevin and I have been out with a lot of contractors, distributors, we've also gathered a lot over the last 6 months.

我的意思是，我認為當我們——凱文和我與許多承包商、分銷商一起出去時，在過去的 6 個月裡我們也收集了很多東西。

We had our Carlisle market survey.

我們進行了卡萊爾市場調查。

And I just think people were caught a little bit off guard with in the fall with the interest rates.

我只是認為人們對利率的下降有點措手不及。

And then as we got through the fall, we had more stability in the political situation, and that's a big change.

隨著秋天的到來，我們的政治局勢變得更加穩定，這是一個巨大的變化。

You have a presidential election.

你們有一場總統選舉。

As we got closer to that and saw that there's going to be some stability, I think at least on the reroofing side, things continue to go.

隨著我們越來越接近目標並看到情況逐漸穩定，我認為至少在屋頂翻修方面，事情會繼續進展。

I think -- I just feel like people had a lot of tension, and then they realized it's probably not going to be as bad as they might have had in their mind.

我認為——我只是覺得人們曾經非常緊張，然後他們意識到情況可能不會像他們想像的那麼糟糕。

So we've got great drivers behind it.

因此，我們背後有著出色的推動力。

I think new construction is going to continue to be soft in the beginning, specifically on the resi side, but then it picks up.

我認為新建築一開始將繼續保持疲軟，特別是在住宅方面，但隨後會回升。

I just -- I think the delays became less apparent specifically because of the labor situation being tight.

我只是——我認為由於勞動力形勢緊張，延遲變得不那麼明顯。

I don't know how much you can delay because I think if you -- on a very real side of it, if you delay and that labor gets reallocated, what are the chances of you getting that labor back.

我不知道你能拖延多久，因為我認為如果你——從非常現實的角度來看，如果你拖延並且勞動力被重新分配，你再拿回這些勞動力的機會有多大。

So to a certain degree, it can be delayed depending on where you are on the level of the project.

因此，從某種程度上來說，這可能會被延遲，具體取決於您所在的專案層級。

But if you're into it, you've got to get it completed and move on.

但如果你對此感興趣，你必須完成它並繼續前進。

I mean there's a big backlog.

我的意思是積壓了大量工作。

We haven't seen much, speaking of backlog.

就積壓而言，我們並沒有看到太多情況。

If I look at what we got out of our survey, throughout the year, that backlog has hovered right around 8 to 9 months.

如果我從調查中得到結果來看，全年來看，積壓訂單量一直徘徊在 8 到 9 個月左右。

So it's been relatively stable.

所以它相對穩定。

And we continue to see roofs that were put on in that increase in the late '90s and 2000 coming for reroofing.

我們繼續看到 20 世紀 90 年代末和 2000 年新增的屋頂被重新翻修。

So that's increasing demand on that side, too.

所以這方面的需求也在增加。

So I think that just all puts together that, yes, you can have a couple of quarters where people are negative about it, but underlying everything are these positive trends, and we've got to get back to work.

所以我認為，綜合起來看，是的，可能會有幾個季度人們對此持消極態度，但總體而言，這些都是積極的趨勢，我們必須重新開始工作。

So I don't know that I answered your question very well, but I tried.

所以我不知道我是否很好地回答了你的問題，但我嘗試過了。

No, I appreciate your thoughts there and I guess I'll pass it on, best of luck.

不，我很感激你的想法，我想我會傳達它，祝你好運。

All right, thanks, Garrick.

好的，謝謝，加里克。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Thank you, good afternoon everyone.

謝謝大家，下午好。

That's it.

就是這樣。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

I want to start with talking about the assumption in your guide that we do get some lift in housing in the back half of the year.

首先我想談談你的指南中的假設，即今年下半年我們的房屋市場確實會有所回升。

If that doesn't happen, can you talk about your ability to outpace the market organically given some of the new products and the share gains that you are seeing in the business?

如果這種情況沒有發生，您能否談談，考慮到一些新產品以及您所看到的業務份額增長，您是否有能力有機地超越市場？

Yeah.

是的。

I think definitely that and that's a great comment around what we're doing because you're right, we don't sit still.

我確實這麼認為，這是對我們所做工作的一個很好的評價，因為你是對的，我們不會停滯不前。

We've got a lot of innovation going on, specifically on the R&R and I would say the new construction front.

我們正在進行許多創新，特別是在 R&R 和新建築方面。

A couple of new products that I could highlight just to show you that, and then I can speak to some other areas.

我可以重點介紹一些新產品給您看，然後我可以談談其他一些領域。

But on the sales side, we've just launched a new organic cotton-based insulation into Home Depot.

但在銷售方面，我們剛剛向家得寶推出了新的有機棉隔熱材料。

I think it's out there now in will be 300 stores on the West Coast.

我認為現在西海岸將會有 300 家商店。

It's being received really well by both consumers and contractors.

它受到了消費者和承包商的一致好評。

It has some great similarities to the fiberglass insulations out there, the R19, but without any of the issues.

它與現有的玻璃纖維絕緣材料 R19 有很大的相似之處，但沒有任何問題。

You don't need to wear a mask.

你不需要戴口罩。

You don't need to worry about itching.

您無需擔心瘙癢。

There's no fiberglass in it.

裡面沒有玻璃纖維。

It's all cotton.

全部都是棉的。

And so something like that, that gets penetration in.

諸如此類的事情，都能得到滲透。

And by the way, I would say its price point is higher than traditional fiberglass insulation.

順便說一句，我想說它的價格比傳統的玻璃纖維絕緣材料高。

So as we always point out, we're going to price to value, and we think there's value there.

因此，正如我們一直指出的那樣，我們將根據價值來定價，而且我們認為這是有價值的。

So that's one.

這就是其中之一。

Another one is our Blueskin vapor barrier continues to be really well received, gaining momentum.

另一個是我們的 Blueskin 防潮層繼續受到熱烈歡迎，並且發展勢頭強勁。

Frank Ready and the team developed that.

弗蘭克雷迪 (Frank Ready) 和他的團隊開發了這個產品。

It's just high value, and again, not a cheap product and a good margin product for us as well.

它的價值很高，對我們來說，它不是一款便宜的產品，也是一款利潤豐厚的產品。

So as we specify those and as we get those continue to roll out, I think that has a positive impact.

因此，當我們具體化這些內容並繼續推出這些內容時，我認為這會產生正面的影響。

Margins, we've continued with automation projects.

利潤，我們繼續進行自動化項目。

Two years ago, we started doing automated filling, automated blending.

兩年前，我們開始做自動填充、自動混合。

And in three of our factories now, that operation is going to come online, that new system.

目前，我們的三家工廠都即將上線該新系統。

And so we'll be taking a lot of labor out of the process.

因此我們將在這個過程中節省大量勞動力。

We'll be getting better efficiency through the process and less wasteless scrap.

我們將透過此流程提高效率並減少廢棄物。

Obviously, that improves margins for us as well.

顯然，這也提高了我們的利潤率。

So just a couple of examples that we're doing both on the innovation side, within our factories.

以上只是我們在工廠內部進行的創新方面的幾個例子。

We still continue to deploy COS.

我們仍在持續部署COS。

And Kevin mentioned that with MTL as well, that when we bought the business, obviously, the mid-20s margin is good.

凱文也提到了 MTL，當我們收購這項業務時，顯然 25% 左右的利潤率是不錯的。

We're certainly aspirational to be over 30% on that.

我們當然希望將這一比例提高到 30% 以上。

And so things like the Carlisle Operating System, the purchasing leverage, you can see how we upped our synergies from over $20 million from the original deal model.

透過卡萊爾作業系統、採購槓桿等，你可以看到我們如何將協同效應從最初的交易模式中的 2000 多萬美元提升到現在的水平。

We continue to focus on being a low-cost producer as well there.

我們將繼續致力於成為那裡的低成本生產商。

So those are the kind of things that will help us mitigate, I think, any slowdown in demand or on the new construction side or failure to have a recovery as quickly as we'd like.

所以我認為，這些因素將有助於我們緩解需求或新建築方面的放緩，或緩解經濟未能像我們所希望的那樣快速復甦的情況。

Okay.

好的。

That's great color.

顏色真棒。

And maybe building on that, one of the comments that you made is that you plan to double the R&D spend this year.

也許在此基礎上，您提到的其中一條評論是，您計劃今年將研發支出增加一倍。

Can you talk about what that means in terms of the multiyear pipeline for products and the ability to continue to price for value?

您能否談談這對於多年的產品線以及持續定價的能力意味著什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

So the same thing that I think we all realize is we want new products faster, but innovation just takes time.

所以我想我們都意識到了同一件事：我們想要更快推出新產品，但創新需要時間。

So this thing will build over time.

因此這個東西將會隨著時間的推移而發展。

We've made the investment in the R&D center in Carlisle, PA.

我們已經對賓州卡萊爾的研發中心進行了投資。

We actually probably will increase that space as we go through the year as we see the need to do more testing and bring more testing in-house, which the more testing we bring in-house, let's say, fire ratings and things like that, the quicker we can get through the product development process.

事實上，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會增加這個空間，因為我們認為有必要進行更多的測試並在內部進行更多的測試，我們在內部進行的測試越多，例如防火等級等，我們就能越快完成產品開發過程。

We've got pilot lines we want to bring in well, which as well, which helps us in the sense that we don't have to shut down a factory line to test the product.

我們已經獲得了想要引進的試驗生產線，這對我們也有幫助，因為我們不必關閉工廠生產線來測試產品。

We can do it off-line in Carlisle, PA.

我們可以在賓州卡萊爾離線進行此操作。

Some other things we're doing is -- and we haven't talked a lot about this, but we've had an accelerator going for the last, I'd say, 2 years.

我們正在做的其他一些事情是——我們還沒有談論太多這方面的事情，但在過去的兩年裡，我們已經有一個加速器了。

We're in our third cohort.

我們已經進入第三批。

Right now, we have just under 10 companies we're working with on new products that range from new advances in insulation technology to get, let's say, 2 times the R-value out of the same cubic inch of a sheet of insulation to coatings that have performance characteristics like being able to be applied in wet weather.

目前，我們正在與近 10 家公司合作開發新產品，這些產品涵蓋絕緣技術的新進展，例如，使同一立方英寸的絕緣板的 R 值提高 2 倍，以及具有可在潮濕天氣使用等性能特徵的塗料。

So the curing is still able to be done.

因此固化仍然可以進行。

It doesn't need to be dry.

無需乾燥。

So for under-grade applications or below-grade applications, that increases the number of days those contractors could put waterproofing down, which obviously means they're going to get off the job quicker and could be more efficient.

因此，對於地下應用或地下應用來說，這增加了承包商進行防水工作的天數，這顯然意味著他們可以更快地完成工作並且更有效率。

And we can charge for that.

我們可以收取費用。

So I think you'll see more of it, our R&D in three areas.

所以我認為你會看到我們在三個領域的研發。

You're going to see the traditional area.

您將會看到傳統區域。

We're going to do it in-house, and that's why we're investing in the Carlisle campus and in engineers and in chemists.

我們將在公司內部進行這項工作，這就是我們投資卡萊爾校區、工程師和化學家的原因。

You'll see it in things like the accelerator, where we're going outside to look for emerging technologies.

你會在諸如加速器之類的東西中看到它，我們會到外面尋找新興技術。

That may be universities or the entrepreneurial community we may have.

那可能是大學，也可能是我們所擁有的創業社群。

And then you'll also see R&D coming from our acquisitions.

然後您還會看到來自我們收購的研發。

Plasti-Fab brought some very interesting ideas around EPS bead just because they're vertically integrated.

Plasti-Fab 圍繞著 EPS 珠子提出了一些非常有趣的想法，因為它們是垂直整合的。

We've always bought our bead, and now we are in the process of being vertically integrated.

我們一直都是自己購買珠子，現在我們正處於垂直整合的過程中。

We can start to look at the enhancements we can make to the bead there to improve the qualities of the bead and improve our EPS boards.

我們可以開始研究可以對珠子進行的改進，以提高珠子的品質並改進我們的 EPS 板。

So when we do that, obviously, we'll communicate those values to everyone, show how they're better, and we'll expect to be paid for that.

因此，當我們這樣做時，顯然，我們會向每個人傳達這些價值觀，展示他們如何變得更好，我們期望因此獲得報酬。

That's great color, Chris.

真漂亮的顏色，克里斯。

Thank you for briefing and good luck.

感謝您的通報並祝您好運。

Okay, thanks so much.

好的，非常感謝。

David MacGregor, Longbow Research.

麥格雷戈（David MacGregor），長弓研究公司（Longbow Research）。

Yeah, good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions.

是的，大家下午好，感謝您回答我的問題。

I was wondering if you could just talk about the M&A market and what you're seeing right now.

我想知道您是否可以談談併購市場以及您現在看到的情況。

Are sellers looking perhaps a little more motivated by what's happening in the macro and all the uncertainty?

賣家是否會因為宏觀情勢和各種不確定性而受到更多激勵？

Are you seeing any meaningful change in multiple expectations?

您是否看到多項期望出現任何有意義的變化？

Just give us a little bit of color on that.

請給我們簡單介紹一下這一點。

That would be helpful.

那將會很有幫助。

I wouldn't say that the multiples have changed much for us.

我不認為倍數對我們來說發生了很大變化。

I don't think we've seen that with the deals we've looked at.

我認為，在我們所考察的交易中，我們還沒有看到這一點。

I think seller expectations are still higher than they've been over the last, let's say, David, 5, 6, 7, 8 years ago.

我認為賣家的預期仍然比過去（比如說 5、6、7、8 年前）更高。

We are seeing, I'd say, a slight uptick in the number of deals coming through that we look at.

我想說，我們看到交易的數量略有上升。

Obviously, we have the four criteria.

顯然，我們有四個標準。

And so a lot of those deals don't meet our criteria, and so they never see the light of day here.

因此，許多交易都不符合我們的標準，因此它們永遠無法在這裡獲得批准。

But I would say we're seeing more deals.

但我想說我們看到了更多的交易。

I think the deals are what you can see, we've been doing deals from the MTL, Plasti-Fab side, and we also have done a deal like ThermaFoam.

我認為交易就是您所看到的，我們一直在與 MTL、Plasti-Fab 進行交易，我們也與 ThermaFoam 進行了交易。

So we're seeing small bolt-ons that can give us a meaningful geographic presence like ThermaFoam all the way up to a midsize deal like the Plasti-Fab or MTL that brings access to new markets, new technology.

因此，我們看到小型附加交易可以為我們帶來有意義的地理存在，如 ThermaFoam，一直到中型交易，如 Plasti-Fab 或 MTL，可以讓我們進入新市場、新技術。

We got into Canada.

我們進入了加拿大。

And then we still see some deals like the Henry size that are out there.

然後我們仍然看到一些像亨利規模這樣的交易。

And I think those -- we may see a few more of those as the year unwinds, which I think is positive.

而且我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會看到更多這樣的情況，我認為這是積極的。

Interesting.

有趣的。

And then I guess second question, just more on a strategic level here.

然後我想第二個問題更多的是戰略層面的。

It seems like we're maybe on the cusp of more consolidation in the distribution function in your business.

看起來我們可能正處於貴公司分銷功能進一步整合的邊緣。

And I'm just wondering if you could comment on your thoughts regarding how consequential consolidation in distribution channels might be.

我只是想知道您是否可以評論一下關於分銷管道整合可能產生多大影響的看法。

And in the event you think it's not consequential, perhaps you could explain why.

如果您認為這無關緊要，也許您可以解釋一下原因。

Well, I think definitely, you're going to continue to see consolidation in distribution.

嗯，我認為你肯定會繼續看到分銷領域的整合。

I think you're also going to see it in contractors.

我想你也會在承包商身上看到這一點。

We've seen some roll-ups in the contractor space.

我們已經看到承包商領域的一些整合現象。

I think you've seen all of our major distribution partners consolidate over the last 5, 6, 7, 8 years.

我想你已經看到我們所有的主要分銷合作夥伴在過去 5、6、7、8 年間都進行了整合。

You can probably find those deals online as to what they did.

您或許可以在網路上找到他們所做的交易。

And so I think that's going to continue.

我認為這種情況將會持續下去。

I think you're also going to have some continuation of manufacturer consolidation as well.

我認為製造商整合也會持續下去。

We continue to do it, obviously, by buying MTL and buying Plasti-Fab.

顯然，我們會繼續這樣做，透過收購 MTL 和 Plasti-Fab。

And I think that will continue.

我認為這種情況將會持續下去。

The ramifications, obviously, things have to be impacted when distribution consolidates.

顯然，當分銷整合時，事情必定會受到影響。

You can look at what's happening with QXO and Beacon and Brad Jacobs.

您可以看看 QXO、Beacon 和 Brad Jacobs 的情況。

And I think the public data or information is around becoming a more efficient distribution organization.

我認為公共資料或資訊是為了成為更有效率的分銷組織。

So there must be some ideas there on how Beacon in a future form would interact with contractors and suppliers like ourselves.

所以肯定有一些關於 Beacon 未來如何與我們這樣的承包商和供應商互動的想法。

We have seen this, and I think I've talked about it on other calls where we've seen places where distribution hasn't provided the same type of benefits they have in the past or contractors have changed either their size or their capabilities.

我們已經看到了這一點，我想我在其他電話會議上也談到了這一點，我們發現有些地方的分銷不再提供過去那樣的益處，或者承包商的規模或能力發生了變化。

And you've seen our direct sales to contractors increase.

而且您已經看到我們向承包商的直接銷售額正在增加。

So Carlisle has been flexible.

因此卡萊爾一直很靈活。

And in fact, I think if you went back 10 years ago, we probably sold less than 5% direct to contractors, and now I think we probably stated we're somewhere in the mid-teens.

事實上，如果回顧 10 年前，我們直接向承包商銷售的產品比例可能不到 5%，而現在，我認為我們可能已經達到了 15% 左右。

So we've already been seeing a change in the distribution landscape, and we're at least I'm pleased that I think Carlisle is well positioned with just an outstanding logistics team and a freight team and having that experience, and I've said this publicly before, that while we sold most of our sales through distribution, we delivered close to 70% of our sales to the job site direct from Carlisle.

因此，我們已經看到分銷格局發生了變化，至少我很高興認為卡萊爾擁有一支優秀的物流團隊和貨運團隊，並擁有豐富的經驗，我之前曾公開說過，雖然我們的大部分銷售額是通過分銷實現的，但我們近 70% 的銷售額是從卡萊爾直接運送到工作現場的。

So we have a great experience in logistics and in dealing with our contractors directly.

因此，我們在物流方面以及與承包商直接打交道方面擁有豐富的經驗。

And so we're happy to continue to support distribution, which we think is important.

因此，我們很高興繼續支持分銷，我們認為這很重要。

But we also, when necessary, have the capabilities to sell direct and service our customers with the same Carlisle experience and the same level of customer service they come to expect for us.

但在必要時，我們也有能力直接銷售，並為我們的客戶提供與卡萊爾相同的體驗以及他們所期望的相同水平的客戶服務。

So little color there for you.

對你來說，顏色太少了。

Hopefully, that wasn't too much.

但願這不算太多。

No, not at all, that was a great answer.

不，一點也不，這是一個很好的答案。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Yeah, Thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Adam Baumgarten, Zelman.

亞當·鮑姆加滕、澤爾曼。

Hey everyone, thanks for taking my question.

大家好，謝謝你們回答我的問題。

Just on the price increases in CCM, I believe they went effective a few weeks ago.

就 CCM 的價格上漲而言，我相信它幾週前就已經生效了。

And I know you're not building in much for 1Q just given the timing, but just curious on the receptivity so far, and what gives you confidence that those will go through as we move into the kind of more active part of the spring season?

我知道，考慮到時間因素，您不會為第一季做太多準備，但我對目前的接受度感到好奇，隨著我們進入春季更加活躍的時期，是什麼讓您有信心這些計劃會順利進行？

Right.

正確的。

Well, we do these -- we initiated -- I think it's a couple of years ago now, these Carlisle market surveys where we're controlling our or trying to at least control our own information to some degree.

嗯，我們確實做了這些——我們發起了——我想這是幾年前的事了，這些卡萊爾市場調查我們正在控制我們自己的信息，或者至少在某種程度上試圖控制我們自己的信息。

When I look back to September, I think people were already planning on some type of price action in the coming months.

當我回顧九月時，我想人們已經計劃在接下來的幾個月採取某種類型的價格行動。

We'd already seen in 2024 earlier that GAF had tried to push a price increase out there.

我們早在 2024 年就已看到 GAF 試圖推動價格上漲。

I don't really think that took any effect, as you can see.

正如您所見，我確實不認為這會產生任何效果。

But we also have seen changes here in December that I can't, I think most organizations have increased price.

但我們在 12 月也看到了一些變化，我認為大多數組織都提高了價格。

And so -- and then what I would say to you is the reason I have some confidence is it's been there for a while.

所以——我想告訴你的是，我之所以有信心，是因為它已經存在了一段時間了。

I think our survey says that people are expecting that, and they're expecting it in the second quarter, really tied to this idea that demand improves.

我認為我們的調查表明人們期待這一點，並且他們期待第二季度出現這種情況，這與需求改善的想法密切相關。

That's one of the things.

這是其中一件事。

And then two, the construction season gets underway.

其次，施工季節開始了。

So that's with the flat raw material situation.

這就是原料持平的情況。

Obviously, the tariff impact, as I'm sure, had some both imagined and real consequences, this ATO out of China has been a real price increase for people that are in the PVC market.

顯然，我確信，關稅的影響既有想像的後果，也有真實的後果，中國的這次 ATO 對 PVC 市場的人們來說是一次真正的價格上漲。

So we've seen that impacted.

因此，我們已經看到其影響。

So that will have an impact on increased prices.

這將對價格上漲產生影響。

And I just think that all of that, the demand, the seasonality and some action here on tariffs, and that people are prepared for the price increase.

我只是認為，所有這些，需求，季節性和關稅方面的一些行動，以及人們已經為價格上漲做好了準備。

And that's what we hear in the surveys, is that, yes, we expected it, and we'd anticipate it rolling into reality somewhere in the late second quarter of '25.

這就是我們在調查中聽到的，是的，我們預料到了這一點，我們預計它將在 2025 年第二季末的某個時候成為現實。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just on weather, I know it was mentioned as a headwind in the fourth quarter.

然後就天氣而言，我知道它被認為是第四季度的不利因素。

A couple of questions.

幾個問題。

One, do you have any idea of the impact?

第一，你知道這會產生什麼影響嗎？

Two, do you think you'll get those sales back in the first quarter?

二，您認為您能在第一季恢復這些銷售額嗎？

And then just January has had some weather also in the South that I know is fairly disruptive.

就在一月份，南方也出現了一些天氣現象，我知道這些天氣相當惡劣。

Anything to be aware of there as it relates to our business?

與我們的業務相關的有哪些需要注意的？

Well, first of all, I think we -- in the fourth quarter, we probably a couple of days, maybe $10 million to $15 million of impact.

嗯，首先，我認為在第四季度，我們可能會在幾天內產生 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元的影響。

On the Henry side, it's a little bit different than the Carlisle side.

亨利方面與卡萊爾方面略有不同。

And Mehul was there 19 years at Henry.

梅胡爾在亨利工作了 19 年。

He can talk a little bit about it.

他可以稍微談論一下。

But I think it's mostly Western United States focused, and the fact that there wasn't a rain means that the demand we would have seen through the retail channel just didn't materialize.

但我認為這主要集中在美國西部，而沒有下雨的事實意味著我們透過零售通路看到的需求並沒有實現。

Will we get that in the first quarter?

我們會在第一季實現這一目標嗎？

I would say probably not.

我想說可能不會。

It doesn't look like we're going to see a lot of wet weather coming.

看起來我們不會再看到太多潮濕的天氣了。

But ultimately, those roofs are potential for leaks.

但最終，這些屋頂都有可能漏水。

So if it happens in the second quarter and you get rain, you're eventually going to find you have a leak.

因此，如果第二季度出現降雨，您最終會發現有洩漏。

And I think that's been Henry's over your 19 years, Mehul.

我想這就是亨利在你 19 年人生中所經歷的，梅胡爾。

I think ultimately, it all washes out.

我認為最終這一切都會消失。

And the impact is just quarter-to-quarter.

而影響僅僅是逐季度發生的。

Yeah, that's exactly right.

是的，完全正確。

So it's high correlation with rain events.

因此它與降雨事件有很高的相關性。

When you do see rain events, you see spikes of 2 times, 3 times POS cells at Home Depot directly to the rain events.

當你確實看到降雨事件時，你會看到 Home Depot 的 POS 單元直接因降雨事件而出現 2 倍、3 倍的峰值。

And as you know, this year, we had 9 or 8 months with zero rain.

你們也知道，今年我們已經 9 到 8 個月沒有下雨了。

So that's going to have a direct impact on demand for roof coatings.

這將對屋頂塗料的需求產生直接影響。

And the only other thing I'd point out is I think last year in the first quarter, I think, Kevin can confirm it, that we had a couple of days of impact, right?

我要指出的另一件事是，我認為去年第一季度，凱文可以證實，我們受到了幾天的影響，對嗎？

And so that may have a little bit of impact in the first quarter as well.

這可能也會對第一季產生一點影響。

Right.

正確的。

We mentioned on our call last year in the first quarter that we had a benefit of maybe 3 days of positive weather to our numbers.

我們在去年第一季的電話會議上提到，可能有3天的好天氣為我們的業績帶來了好處。

So obviously, that's a tougher comp this year versus last year, assuming we don't have that same benefit.

因此顯然，假設我們沒有同樣的福利，那麼今年的競爭將比去年更加激烈。

Got it, thank you.

知道了，謝謝。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

I would like to hand the call back to Chris Koch for closing remarks.

我想將電話交還給克里斯·科赫 (Chris Koch) 來做最後發言。

Sir, please go ahead.

先生，請說。

Well, thanks, Constantine.

好吧，謝謝，康斯坦丁。

I want to thank everybody for joining us on this fourth quarter earnings call.

我要感謝大家參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

Look forward to speaking with you at our next earnings call, which will be the end of the first quarter.

期待在我們下次財報電話會議上與您交談，那將在第一季末。

Thanks and have a good evening, everyone.

謝謝，祝大家晚上愉快。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you very much for your participation.

非常感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。