Carter's Inc (CRI) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Carter's third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. On the call are Doug Palladini, Chief Executive Officer and President; Richard Westenberger, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer; and Sean McHugh, Treasurer. Please note that today's call is being recorded.

    歡迎參加 Carter 公司 2025 財年第三季財報電話會議。參加電話會議的有:執行長兼總裁道格·帕拉迪尼;財務長兼營運長理查德·韋斯滕伯格;以及財務主管肖恩·麥克休。請注意,今天的通話將會被錄音。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Mr. McHugh.

    現在我將把電話交給麥克休先生。

  • Sean McHugh - Vice President and Treasurer

    Sean McHugh - Vice President and Treasurer

  • Thank you and good morning, everyone. We issued our third-quarter 2025 earnings release earlier today. The release and presentation materials for today's call are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.carters.com. Note that statements on today's call about items such as the company's expectations and plans are forward-looking statements.

    謝謝大家,大家早安。我們今天稍早發布了2025年第三季財報。本次電話會議的新聞稿和簡報資料可在公司投資者關係網站ir.carters.com上查閱。請注意,本次電話會議中有關公司預期和計劃等事項的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。

  • For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to vary from those contained in the forward-looking statements, please see our most recent SEC filings and the earnings release and presentation materials posted on our website. In these materials, you will also find reconciliations of various non-GAAP financial measurements referenced during this call.

    有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中所包含的結果有差異的因素的討論,請參閱我們最新的美國證券交易委員會文件以及在我們網站上發布的收益報告和演示材料。在這些資料中,您也可以找到本次電話會議中提到的各種非GAAP財務指標的調整表。

  • After today's prepared remarks, we will take questions as time allows. I will now turn the call over to Doug.

    今天的發言結束後,我們將視時間安排回答問題。現在我將把電話交給道格。

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Now almost seven months into my role as Carter's CEO, our business transformation has accelerated as core tenets of new strategies take hold. Consumer response to new products and stories is strong, and engagement levels are rising as a result, most notably among young Gen Z families with whom we must win.

    謝謝你,肖恩,大家早安。在我擔任 Carter 執行長近七個月後,隨著新策略的核心原則逐漸確立,我們的業務轉型進程加快了。消費者對新產品和新產品故事的反應強烈,參與度也因此不斷提高,尤其是在年輕的 Z 世代家庭中,我們必須贏得他們的支持。

  • That said, our current results don't represent my ambition for Carter's, nor where I believe where we can be. There remains meaningful work to be done to eliminate costs, enhance productivity, excise non-value add complexity, and exhibit consistent growth in revenue and profitability.

    也就是說,我們目前的業績並不能代表我對卡特的期望,也不能代表我認為我們能夠達到的高度。在消除成本、提高生產力、去除非增值複雜性以及實現收入和盈利能力的持續增長方面,仍有許多有意義的工作要做。

  • I'll share some of what we're doing against these objectives shortly, but first, let's get an update on Q3 results from Richard.

    我稍後會分享我們為實現這些目標所做的一些工作,但首先,讓我們聽聽 Richard 報告第三季的業績。

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Doug. Good morning, everyone. I'll cover our third-quarter performance and then a bit later, I'll provide some thoughts on our outlook for the business over the balance of this year and into 2026. My comments this morning will track along with the presentation materials posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website.

    謝謝你,道格。各位早安。我將介紹我們第三季的業績,稍後,我將對今年剩餘時間和 2026 年的業務前景提出一些看法。我今天早上的發言將與我們網站投資者關係部分發布的演示材料保持一致。

  • Beginning on page 2, we have our GAAP basis P&L for the third quarter. On third quarter net sales of $758 million, our reported operating income was $29 million, and reported earnings per share were $0.32 compared to reported EPS of $1.62 last year. On page 3, we have our GAAP basis P&L for the first nine months of the year. On year-to-date sales of nearly $2 billion, our reported operating income was $59 million, which represented a 3% operating margin. And year-to-date earnings per share were $0.75.

    從第 2 頁開始,我們列出了第三季的 GAAP 損益表。第三季淨銷售額為 7.58 億美元,報告營業收入為 2,900 萬美元,報告每股收益為 0.32 美元,而去年同期報告每股收益為 1.62 美元。第 3 頁是我們根據 GAAP 準則編製的本年度前九個月的損益表。今年迄今為止,該公司銷售額接近 20 億美元,報告的營業收入為 5,900 萬美元,營業利潤率為 3%。今年迄今的每股收益為 0.75 美元。

  • Our third-quarter and year-to-date results included a number of significant one-time charges which we've summarized on page 4. These charges have been treated as adjustments to our reported results. In the third quarter, we completed the termination of our legacy OshKosh B'Gosh pension plan and recorded a non-cash after-tax charge of approximately $7 million. This final charge is in line with the amount we previously disclosed on our second-quarter earnings call.

    我們第三季和年初至今的業績包含一些重大的一次性費用,我們在第 4 頁對此進行了總結。這些費用已視為對我們公佈業績的調整。第三季度,我們完成了原有的 OshKosh B'Gosh 退休金計畫的終止,併計入了約 700 萬美元的非現金稅後支出。這項最終費用與我們先前在第二季財報電話會議上揭露的金額一致。

  • We also terminated our deferred compensation plan in the third quarter, and as a result, recorded a one-time incremental tax charge of approximately $800,000. Finally, our third-quarter reported results included a charge related to organizational restructuring of approximately $6 million for severance and other employee separation benefits. We expect to record an additional charge of up to $5 million in the fourth quarter related to this organizational restructuring.

    第三季度,我們也終止了遞延補償計劃,因此提列了約 80 萬美元的一次性增量稅款。最後,我們第三季報告的業績包括與組織結構重組相關的約 600 萬美元的費用,用於支付遣散費和其他員工離職福利。我們預計將在第四季度計入與此組織架構重組相關的額外費用,最高可達 500 萬美元。

  • These charges largely represent cash severance, which we expect to pay to affected employees throughout the first half of fiscal year 2026. We will talk more about our organizational restructuring later in today's call.

    這些費用主要指現金遣散費,我們預計在 2026 財年上半年支付給受影響的員工。我們將在今天的電話會議中進一步討論組織架構重組事宜。

  • On a year-to-date basis, we've incurred approximately $13 million in costs, including just under $4 million in the third quarter, relating largely to third-party professional fees in support of improving our product and brand development processes. These costs are a continuation of previously announced initiatives to improve our operating model capabilities. We've been transitioning the work related to these initiatives from external consultants to internal resources, and estimate we'll incur additional related charges of less than $2 million in the fourth quarter.

    今年迄今為止,我們已產生約 1300 萬美元的成本,其中第三季度略低於 400 萬美元,主要與支持改進我們的產品和品牌開發流程的第三方專業費用有關。這些成本是先前宣布的旨在提高我們營運模式能力的各項措施的延續。我們已將這些計劃相關的工作從外部顧問轉移到內部資源,預計第四季度我們將產生不到 200 萬美元的額外相關費用。

  • Our year-to-date results also included approximately $8 million related to our leadership transition earlier in the year, including approximately $500,000 in the third quarter. With all that said, my comments this morning will speak to our results on an adjusted basis, which excludes these meaningful charges.

    今年迄今的業績還包括與年初領導層過渡相關的約 800 萬美元支出,其中第三季支出約 50 萬美元。綜上所述,我今天早上的評論將基於調整後的業績,其中不包括這些重大費用。

  • On page 5 we have our third-quarter adjusted P&L. Third-quarter net sales were $758 million, comparable to a year ago. Third quarter is historically our second largest of the year, surpassed only by the fourth quarter. I'll cover more detail of our business segment performance in a moment, but at a high level, relative to last year's third quarter, we had net sales growth in our US Retail and International segments and lower sales in US Wholesale.

    第 5 頁是我們第三季調整後的損益表。第三季淨銷售額為7.58億美元,與去年同期持平。從歷史數據來看,第三季是我們全年業績第二高的季度,僅次於第四季。稍後我會詳細介紹我們各業務部門的業績,但總體而言,與去年第三季度相比,我們在美國零售和國際業務部門的淨銷售額有所增長,而在美國批發業務部門的銷售額有所下降。

  • On the nearly $760 million in net sales, our gross margin was 45.1%, a decrease of 180 basis points versus last year. This lower gross margin rate was largely due to higher product costs, including higher tariffs and additional investments in product make to improve the competitiveness and relevancy of our product assortments. The gross impact of tariffs on gross margin was $20 million in the third quarter.

    在近 7.6 億美元的淨銷售額中,我們的毛利率為 45.1%,比去年下降了 180 個基點。較低的毛利率主要是由於產品成本較高,包括更高的關稅以及為提高產品組合的競爭力和相關性而對產品製造進行的額外投資。第三季關稅對毛利率的總影響為 2,000 萬美元。

  • On a consolidated basis, we've made good progress in raising prices which were up in the low-single digits, but this higher pricing did not fully offset the higher product cost in the quarter. Our US Retail business made particular progress in raising prices. Third-quarter AURs in US retail increased in the mid-single-digit range over last year.

    從整體來看,我們在漲價方面取得了良好進展,價格漲幅達到了個位數低位,但更高的價格並沒有完全抵消本季更高的產品成本。我們的美國零售業務在漲價方面取得了顯著進展。美國零售業第三季平均營業收入較去年同期成長了中等個位數。

  • Third-quarter adjusted SG&A was $308 million, up 8% over the last year. The drivers in the quarter were similar to what they've been throughout 2025, namely higher store-based expenses across our North American store portfolio, higher marketing, and higher provisions for variable compensation. The growth rate in spending in the third quarter was less than in the second quarter, and we're planning for a lower growth rate in total spending in fourth quarter and into 2026.

    第三季調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用為 3.08 億美元,比上年同期成長 8%。本季的主要驅動因素與 2025 年全年的主要驅動因素類似,即北美門市組合的門市支出增加、行銷支出增加以及可變薪酬準備金增加。第三季的支出成長率低於第二季度,我們預期第四季及2026年的總支出成長率將進一步降低。

  • Adjusted operating income in Q3 was $39 million compared to $77 million a year ago. Below the line, net interest costs were comparable to last year, and our effective tax rate was 21.8%, up 430 basis points versus last year. We've planned our full-year effective tax rate at approximately 24% versus 19.6% in 2024, due mostly to the implementation of a global minimum tax in Hong Kong and stock option expirations earlier this year. With all of that on the bottom line, third-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $0.74 compared to $1.64 last year.

    第三季調整後營業收入為 3,900 萬美元,去年同期為 7,700 萬美元。在收支平衡表下方,淨利息成本與去年持平,實際稅率為 21.8%,比去年上升了 430 個基點。我們已將全年有效稅率計劃定在 24% 左右,而 2024 年的稅率為 19.6%,這主要是由於香港實施了全球最低稅以及今年早些時候股票期權到期所致。綜合以上因素,第三季調整後每股收益為 0.74 美元,去年同期為 1.64 美元。

  • On page 6, we have a summary of our third-quarter performance by business segment. As mentioned earlier, consolidated net sales were comparable to a year ago. The roughly $15 million in growth between US Retail and International was offset by a similar decline in sales in US Wholesale versus last year. Adjusted operating income decline just under $40 million with US Retail and US Wholesale contributing roughly equally to the decline. Profitability in our International business declined slightly versus a year ago.

    第 6 頁是我們按業務部門劃分的第三季業績摘要。如前所述,合併淨銷售額與去年同期持平。美國零售和國際市場之間約 1500 萬美元的成長被美國批發市場銷售額與去年同期相比的類似下降所抵消。經調整後的營業收入下降了近 4000 萬美元,其中美國零售和美國批發業務對下降的貢獻大致相同。與去年同期相比,我們國際業務的獲利能力略有下降。

  • Now turning to some additional details of our third-quarter performance in US Retail on page 7. Our net sales in Retail grew by 3% in the third quarter with a positive 2% total retail comp, building on the similarly positive comp which we posted in the second quarter. Our objective is to return to consistent growth and comparable sales, so we were pleased with this result.

    現在請翻到第 7 頁,看看我們第三季美國零售業務的一些其他細節。第三季度,我們的零售淨銷售額成長了 3%,零售總額同店銷售額成長了 2%,延續了第二季同店銷售額的成長動能。我們的目標是恢復持續成長和可比銷售額,因此我們對這個結果感到滿意。

  • We had comparable sales growth in both channels in the quarter, stores and e-commerce, and anniversaried last year's successful Labor Day period with good performance in this year during this key promotional period. As I noted earlier, consumers accepted higher prices in the quarter. Our mid-single-digit increase in AURs resulted in a low-single-digit increase in average transaction values.

    本季度,我們在實體店和電商通路的銷售額均實現了可比增長,並延續了去年勞動節期間的成功勢頭,在今年的關鍵促銷期內取得了良好的業績。正如我之前提到的,消費者在本季接受了更高的價格。AUR(平均交易量)的個位數成長,導致平均交易額的個位數成長。

  • From a product point of view, Baby continues to be a key driver. It's our largest product category, and we posted sales growth here for the fifth consecutive quarter. We also saw good growth in Toddler, which represented our strongest performance in this age segment so far this year. Relative to last year, we grew share in both the Baby and Toddler categories.

    從產品角度來看,嬰兒用品仍然是關鍵驅動因素。這是我們最大的產品類別,我們已連續第五個季度實現了該類別的銷售成長。幼兒市場也取得了良好的成長,這是我們今年迄今在該年齡層市場表現最強勁的一次。與去年相比,我們在嬰兒和幼兒類別的市佔率均有所成長。

  • US Retail also benefited from an improved inventory position versus the first half. We entered the third quarter with less carryover of prior season goods, helping new seasonal products to perform well. In general, consumers continue to respond well to newness and the better part of our assortments.

    與上半年相比,美國零售業也受惠於庫存狀況的改善。第三季度,上一季商品的庫存積壓較少,有助於新季產品取得良好業績。總的來說,消費者對新品和我們大部分優質產品仍然反應良好。

  • Our inventory investment in the Bigger Kids Size segment also helped us to post sequential trend improvement in this part of our business, and we had a strong back-to-school selling season. We did invest in an incremental marketing in the third quarter. We're seeing good indications that our relevance with consumers is increasing, with unaided awareness of the Carter's brand up significantly year over year, and a continuation of progress in acquiring new customers driven by the strength of our Baby business.

    我們在大童尺寸領域的庫存投資也幫助我們實現了該業務部分連續成長的趨勢,並且我們迎來了強勁的返校季銷售旺季。我們在第三季確實加大了行銷投入。我們看到一些很好的跡象表明,我們與消費者的相關性正在提高,Carter's 品牌的知名度逐年顯著提高,並且在嬰兒業務的強勁推動下,我們在獲取新客戶方面也持續取得進展。

  • Retail profitability was lower in the quarter for many of the reasons already cited: higher product costs, partially offset by improved realized pricing; the investment in marketing; and expense deleverage despite the positive comp in the quarter.

    本季零售獲利能力下降,原因有很多,正如前面提到的:產品成本上升,部分被實際價格的提高所抵消;行銷投入;以及儘管本季同店銷售額為正,但費用槓桿率仍然下降。

  • Now turning to some additional detail on our third-quarter performance in US Wholesale and in our International segment on page 8. In US Wholesale, sales were down versus last year, driven by lower sales in the Simple Joys component of our Exclusive Brands business. Demand for our Simple Joys brand on Amazon has been down this year. Simple Joys was a successful brand launch back in 2017, and this business grew rapidly as Amazon treated Simple Joys as effectively its private label brand in the young children's apparel space.

    現在,讓我們在第 8 頁詳細了解我們第三季在美國批發業務和國際業務的業績。在美國批發業務中,銷售額較去年有所下降,主要原因是我們的獨家品牌業務中的 Simple Joys 板塊銷售額下降。今年以來,我們在亞馬遜上的 Simple Joys 品牌需求有所下降。Simple Joys 於 2017 年成功推出,隨著亞馬遜將 Simple Joys 視為其在兒童服裝領域的自有品牌,該業務迅速發展。

  • In recent years, Amazon has changed its approach to how it manages brands, and as a result, we've seen more pressure in this part of our business. We're in process of executing a new strategy in collaboration with Amazon. We envision that our core Carter's, OshKosh, and other brands such as Little Planet and Otter Avenue, will grow in prominence in this important channel of distribution, and Simple Joys will reduce in significance over time. We will look forward to sharing more about our growth plans with this important customer.

    近年來,亞馬遜改變了其品牌管理方式,因此,我們業務的這一部分面臨更大的壓力。我們正在與亞馬遜合作,執行一項新策略。我們預計,我們的核心品牌 Carter's、OshKosh 以及其他品牌,如 Little Planet 和 Otter Avenue,將在這一重要的分銷管道中日益受到重視,而 Simple Joys 的重要性將隨著時間的推移而降低。我們期待與這位重要客戶分享更多關於我們發展計劃的資訊。

  • Elsewhere in the customer portfolio, sales with department store customers for the flagship Carter's brand were lower than a year ago, continuing the trend we have seen over an extended period. Our department store customers booked us down for the fall, so this result was not a surprise to us. Department stores are projected to represent less than 20% of our overall wholesale channel sales for the full year. Profitability in the Wholesale segment was impacted by the factors listed here, including higher net product costs, including higher tariffs and expense deleverage.

    在其他客戶組合中,旗艦品牌 Carter's 在百貨公司客戶的銷售額低於去年同期,延續了我們長期以來看到的趨勢。我們的百貨公司客戶已經預訂了我們秋季的檔期,所以這個結果我們並不感到驚訝。預計百貨公司全年將占我們整體批發通路銷售額的不到 20%。批發業務的獲利能力受到以下因素的影響,包括更高的淨產品成本(包括更高的關稅和費用槓桿化)。

  • We had a good third quarter in International. Total sales were up 5%. We had lower comps in Canada, which we attribute to strong first-half sales performance that likely pulled some volume forward into Q2 when the business posted a positive 7.6% comp, as well as a lower level of clearance inventory in the third quarter. We continue to see strong performance in Mexico which achieved a plus 16% comp with strong total sales performance given the contribution of new stores in this market.

    我們在國際業務方面第三季表現不錯。總銷售額成長了5%。我們在加拿大的同店銷售額有所下降,我們認為這是由於上半年強勁的銷售業績可能將部分銷量提前到了第二季度,而第二季度該業務的同店銷售額增長了 7.6%,以及第三季度清倉庫存水平較低所致。我們在墨西哥市場持續保持強勁的業績,實現了 16% 的同店銷售成長,這主要得益於該市場新店的貢獻。

  • We saw a strong growth in our International partners business in the third quarter. Sales to these customers, which operate in a large number of international markets around the world, were up 10%, and we continue to see particular strength and demand from our partner in Brazil, Riachuelo. Overall, International segment profitability was down in the quarter, but achieved a high-single-digit operating margin of 8% in the third quarter.

    第三季度,我們的國際合作夥伴業務實現了強勁成長。這些客戶遍布世界各地許多國際市場,銷售額成長了 10%,我們繼續看到來自巴西合作夥伴 Riachuelo 的強勁需求。總體而言,國際業務部門本季獲利能力有所下降,但第三季實現了 8% 的高個位數營業利潤率。

  • On page 9, we have some balance sheet and cash flow highlights. We ended the quarter with continued good liquidity. Cash on hand was $184 million, and we had virtually all the borrowing capacity under our credit facility available to us. Net inventories at the end of the third quarter were $656 million, up 8% versus last year, with units flat year over year. The impact of higher tariffs on ending inventory was meaningful, approximately $34 million. Excluding the impact of higher tariffs, net [inventory] increased by 2% versus last year.

    第 9 頁是資產負債表和現金流量表的一些要點。本季末,我們的流動性依然良好。當時我們手頭上有現金 1.84 億美元,而且我們幾乎動用了信貸額度下的所有借款能力。第三季末淨庫存為 6.56 億美元,比去年同期成長 8%,單位數量與去年同期持平。關稅上調對期末庫存的影響很大,約 3,400 萬美元。剔除關稅上漲的影響,淨庫存比去年增加了 2%。

  • The quality of our inventory heading into the fourth quarter was high, with excess inventory down meaningfully versus a year ago. The decline in cash flow was due to a combination of lower reported earnings and higher inventories, again in part due to the impact of tariffs on our quarter and inventory balance. We historically generate the majority of our annual cash flow in the fourth quarter, and we're planning for strong operating cash flow for the fourth quarter, which is expected to yield positive operating cash flow for the full year.

    進入第四季時,我們的庫存品質很高,過剩庫存與去年同期相比大幅下降。現金流下降是由於報告收益減少和庫存增加共同造成的,而庫存增加的部分原因又是關稅對我們季度業績和庫存餘額的影響。我們在第四季產生大部分年度現金流,我們預計第四季將有強勁的經營現金流,預計這將為全年帶來正的經營現金流。

  • We've paid $47 million in dividends year to date. We had no share repurchases this year compared to about $50 million year to date last year. Maintaining a strong balance sheet has always been an important priority for us, and it's more important than ever given this highly uncertain environment.

    今年迄今為止,我們已支付了 4700 萬美元的股息。今年我們沒有進行任何股票回購,而去年同期回購金額約 5,000 萬美元。保持穩健的資產負債表一直是我們的首要任務,鑑於當前高度不確定的環境,這一點比以往任何時候都更加重要。

  • Our current credit facility matures in spring 2027. We've begun the process to put in place a new credit facility. We are pursuing an asset-based loan or ABL type facility, given its favorable pricing and flexibility relative to our current cash flow structure. To date, we have received commitments from our bank group members for a new five-year $750 million credit facility. We're planning to have this new facility in place in the coming weeks.

    我們目前的信用額度將於 2027 年春季到期。我們已開始著手建立新的信貸機制。鑑於資產抵押貸款(ABL)的定價和靈活性相對於我們目前的現金流結構而言較為有利,我們正在尋求此類貸款。迄今為止,我們已收到銀行集團成員對一項新的五年期 7.5 億美元信貸額度的承諾。我們計劃在未來幾週內建造這座新設施。

  • Additionally, we're evaluating opportunities to refinance our existing $500 million in senior notes, which also mature in spring 2027. Conditions in the high yield debt market are favorable right now. Carter's is an experienced issuer in this market, and we'll share more details on our path forward here when appropriate. On pages 10 and 11, we have our year-to-date adjusted P&L and year-to-date business segment summary, and this information is included for your reference.

    此外,我們正在評估為我們現有的 5 億美元高級票據進行再融資的機會,這些票據也將在 2027 年春季到期。目前高收益債券市場的狀況良好。Carter's 在這個市場擁有豐富的發行經驗,我們將在適當的時候分享更多關於我們未來發展方向的細節。第 10 頁和第 11 頁分別列出了我們年初至今的調整後損益表和年初至今的業務部門總結表,這些資訊供您參考。

  • I'll turn it now back to Doug for some additional thoughts.

    現在我把話題轉回給道格,讓他補充一些想法。

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Richard. I'm encouraged by several aspects of our third-quarter performance. As we continue to fuel progress and momentum across our brands, I see more reasons than ever to believe we are returning to long-term, sustainable, and profitable growth. While we are studying our business in 2025, there's still meaningful work to do for Carter's to unlock its full potential in terms of exceeding both consumer and shareholder expectations.

    謝謝你,理查。我對我們第三季的業績表現的幾個方面感到鼓舞。隨著我們不斷推動旗下各品牌的發展和勢頭,我比以往任何時候都更有理由相信,我們將重回長期、可持續和盈利增長的軌道。雖然我們正在研究公司在 2025 年的業務發展,但 Carter's 仍有許多有意義的工作要做,才能充分發揮其潛力,超越消費者和股東的期望。

  • We're actively managing Carter's in a highly uncertain world and marketplace, particularly as it relates to tariffs. We look forward to sharing more of our long-range plan in 2026, but closer in, we're focused on what we think is possible over the near term based on what we can control. To manage tariff impact, we've taken two primary actions.

    我們正在積極管理卡特公司,因為世界和市場高度不確定,尤其是在關稅方面。我們期待在 2026 年分享更多我們的長期計劃,但就近期而言,我們專注於根據我們能夠控制的因素,我們認為在近期內可能實現的事情。為了因應關稅的影響,我們採取了兩項主要措施。

  • First, we're mitigating what we can through our supplier base, where Carter's world-class supply chain team has realized meaningful duty reductions of more than $40 million. Second, we've raised prices where necessary, while striving to maintain Carter's exceptional value proposition. To date, D2C consumers are accepting higher prices while we have continued to grow our business.

    首先,我們正在透過我們的供應商基礎來減輕影響,卡特的世界一流供應鏈團隊已經實現了超過 4000 萬美元的實質關稅減免。其次,我們在必要時提高了價格,同時努力保持 Carter 的卓越價值主張。迄今為止,D2C 消費者已經接受了更高的價格,而我們的業務也持續成長。

  • As Richard mentioned, Q3 is our second straight quarter of positive retail comp growth, and AURs are up mid-single digits, with average order values up low- single digits. Taking price will continue to be a critical component of tariff mitigation moving forward.

    正如理查德所提到的,第三季是我們連續第二季零售同店銷售額實現正成長,平均單價成長了中等個位數,平均訂單價值成長了低個位數。價格因素仍將是未來關稅減免的關鍵組成部分。

  • As we continue down the road of our ongoing transformation, it's imperative that Carter's deliver near-term profitability, which we can achieve most impactfully by reducing our cost base as growth initiatives build returns over time. We're rightsizing our company as well as preparing for our next phase of growth by optimizing our organization, infrastructure, processes, and tools. In doing so, we're taking several difficult but necessary decisions and have identified $45 million in gross savings for 2026.

    隨著我們不斷推進轉型,卡特公司必須實現近期獲利,而要實現這一目標,最有效的辦法就是降低成本,同時讓成長計畫隨著時間的推移帶來回報。我們正在調整公司規模,並透過優化組織架構、基礎設施、流程和工具,為下一階段的成長做好準備。為此,我們做出了一些艱難但必要的決定,並確定了 2026 年可節省 4500 萬美元。

  • We will also continue to identify additional sources of productivity going forward, and we expect our assortment rationalization initiatives to have a sales and margin benefit over time. It's crucial that Carter's enhance our performance-driven culture, in which fewer people have greater ownership and accountability. To accomplish this, we plan to reduce offices-based roles by approximately 15% between now and year-end 2025, saving roughly $35 million of the gross $45 million per year beginning in 2026. We believe these actions will streamline processes and decision-making at Carter's.

    我們將繼續尋找其他提高生產力的途徑,並預計隨著時間的推移,我們的產品組合合理化措施將帶來銷售額和利潤率的提升。卡特公司必須加強我們以績效為導向的企業文化,在這種文化中,更少的人擁有更大的所有權和責任。為了實現這一目標,我們計劃從現在到 2025 年底將辦公室職位減少約 15%,從 2026 年開始,每年節省約 3,500 萬美元(總額為 4,500 萬美元)。我們相信這些措施將簡化卡特公司的流程和決策。

  • The remaining $10 million in 2026 cost reductions will come through lower SG&A across multiple spending categories. These savings are expected to fuel near-term profitability while focusing Carter's on what really matters. Now, moving on to Carter's stores, as we've discussed previously, our physical store fleet must be honed. We are now targeting 150 North America door closures, most as leases expire, up to 100 of which we expect to exit by the end of 2026.

    2026 年剩餘的 1,000 萬美元成本削減將透過降低多個支出類別的銷售、一般及行政費用來實現。預計這些節省將有助於提高短期獲利能力,同時讓 Carter's 專注於真正重要的事情。現在,讓我們來看看 Carter's 的門市,正如我們之前討論過的,我們的實體店網路必須進行改進。我們現在的目標是關閉北美 150 家門市,其中大部分是因為租約到期,我們預計到 2026 年底將關閉多達 100 家。

  • Closing these stores does result in short-term revenue loss, but historical perspectives suggest there will be offsetting sales transfer benefits by leveraging Carter's digital platforms, existing stores, and nearby wholesale partners. These closures will also allow us to free up SG&A associated with the fleet, one of our largest fixed assets.

    關閉這些門市確實會導致短期收入損失,但歷史經驗表明,透過利用 Carter 的數位平台、現有門市和附近的批發合作夥伴,將會帶來抵銷性的銷售轉移收益。這些停產也將使我們能夠釋放與車隊相關的銷售、管理及行政費用,車隊是我們最大的固定資產之一。

  • While we're pausing any further expansion of the current US store model, the roughly 4,000 to 5,000 square foot co-branded format we've been opening for several years now, we're investing in new store type testing, in-store experiences, and real estate strategy development as we see greater fleet productivity, as well as differentiated consumer experiences as distinct specialty destinations staffed by experts.

    雖然我們暫停了目前美國門市模式(我們已開設數年的約 4,000 至 5,000 平方英尺的聯合品牌門市)的進一步擴張,但我們正在投資於新的門市類型測試、店內體驗和房地產戰略發展,因為我們看到了更高的車隊效率,以及由專家組成的特色目的地所帶來的差異化消費者體驗。

  • A core tenet of our transformation is to put the Carter's consumer at the center of all we do, so we are removing internal complexity to bring our brands closer to market and deliver more of what our fans want. We're eliminating 20% to 30% of product choices in creating a more unified global product assortment across all our brands. We're leveraging a faster, more responsive design and development process that has excised a full three months from our product development calendar.

    我們轉型的核心原則是將 Carter's 的消費者置於我們一切工作的中心,因此我們正在消除內部複雜性,使我們的品牌更貼近市場,並提供更多粉絲想要的東西。為了打造更統一的全球產品系列,我們將減少 20% 到 30% 的產品選擇,涵蓋我們所有品牌。我們正在利用更快、更快速的設計和開發流程,從而從我們的產品開發計劃中節省了整整三個月的時間。

  • Regular price sell-throughs have improved, demonstrating a sharper point of view in product design that truly resonates with consumers. Underpinning each action is the broader organizational objective of ensuring that our makeup, from personnel to infrastructure to systems and processes, reflects the agility necessary to both confront challenges and seize opportunities in a dynamic marketplace.

    常規價格的銷售情況有所改善,這表明產品設計方面有了更清晰的思路,真正引起了消費者的共鳴。每一項行動的背後,都是更廣泛的組織目標,即確保我們的組織組成,從人員到基礎設施到系統和流程,都能體現出在動態市場中應對挑戰和抓住機會所需的敏捷性。

  • A portion of these savings will be reinvested in our brands where we believe Carter's can generate the greatest return on invested capital. In 2026 and beyond, we plan to spend more on-demand creation, driving traffic and consumer loyalty beyond promotion and price. We're already investing here. In Q4 '25, our media spend is up 11% from last year. The results year to date show a strong correlation between marketing investment and increased sales.

    我們將把節省下來的部分資金再投資到我們認為 Carter's 能帶來最大投資回​​報的品牌上。2026 年及以後,我們計劃投入更多資金用於按需創作,以推動流量成長和提升消費者忠誠度,而不僅僅依靠促銷和價格。我們已經在這裡投資了。2025年第四季,我們的媒體支出比去年同期成長了11%。今年迄今為止的結果表明,行銷投入與銷售額成長之間存在很強的相關性。

  • In 2026, our plan is to increase demand creation spend almost 20% or $16 million. Of course, we will manage this spend carefully to ensure maximum returns. Ongoing investment also applies to Carter's US e-commerce, where the business is back to growing with our Q3 comps up as well as AURs. As we moderate promotional messaging in favor of brand and product storytelling, our brands are resonating more deeply with consumers online, especially young Gen Z families with whom we have seen 17% growth in consumer accounts year to date.

    到 2026 年,我們的計畫是將需求創造支出增加近 20%,即 1,600 萬美元。當然,我們會謹慎管理這筆支出,以確保獲得最大回報。持續的投資也適用於 Carter 的美國電子商務,該業務已恢復成長,第三季同店銷售額和平均營業額均有所成長。隨著我們調整促銷訊息,轉而重視品牌和產品故事,我們的品牌與線上消費者產生了更深的共鳴,尤其是年輕的 Z 世代家庭,我們今年迄今為止在該群體中的消費者帳戶增長了 17%。

  • IT investments fostering growth and productivity, such as digitization of product design and development, leveraging AI models, and cloud migration are being prioritized. We'll also focus on foundational simplification by consolidating systems and platforms.

    促進成長和提高生產力的IT投資,例如產品設計和開發的數位化、利用人工智慧模型以及雲端遷移,正被列為優先事項。我們也將透過整合系統和平台,著重簡化基礎架構。

  • And with those comments, I'll turn it back to Richard to talk about our expectations for the balance of this year and into 2026.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交還給理查德,讓他談談我們對今年剩餘時間和 2026 年的預期。

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Doug. I'm returning to our presentation materials on page 19. We continue to monitor the situation with tariffs and the considerable impact they have begun to have on our business.

    謝謝你,道格。我將回到第 19 頁的簡報資料。我們將繼續關注關稅情勢及其對我們業務造成的重大影響。

  • As we all know now, over the past number of months, significantly higher tariffs have been implemented, affecting imports from most every country, including those from which we source the majority of our products. These full reciprocal rates are much higher than those which have been in place historically and higher than what we have modeled and discussed with you all previously.

    眾所周知,在過去的幾個月裡,各國都實施了大幅提高的關稅,影響了幾乎所有國家的進口商品,包括我們大部分產品來源國。這些完全互惠利率遠高於歷史上實施的利率,也高於我們之前與大家模擬和討論過的利率。

  • The tariff rates now in effect bring our effective duty rate into the high 30% range versus about 13% historically. On a gross pre-mitigation basis, we've updated our estimate of the annualized incremental impact of the higher tariffs and now estimate that to be in the range of $200million to $250 million. For 2025, we've estimated the net impact of the additional tariffs on operating income to be in the range of $25 million to $35 million.

    現行的關稅稅率使我們的實際關稅稅率達到了 30% 以上,而歷史上這一數字約為 13%。在未採取任何緩解措施的情況下,我們更新了對提高關稅的年度增量影響的估計,現在估計該影響在 2 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間。我們估計,到 2025 年,額外關稅對營業收入的淨影響將在 2,500 萬美元至 3,500 萬美元之間。

  • As Doug mentioned, we've been pursuing tariff mitigation strategies across multiple fronts, the most material of which are the planned pricing increases across our assortments. We're also closely watching recent news reporting regarding current trade negotiations involving countries where Carter's production has been most affected by the higher tariffs. The situation remains very fluid, and we're tracking the updates in real time. And if there is relief ultimately provided by the Supreme Court on the overall issue itself of higher tariffs, we will obviously seek to recover the significant amounts already paid in additional tariffs to date.

    正如道格所提到的,我們一直在多個方面尋求關稅緩解策略,其中最實質的策略是計劃提高我們所有產品的價格。我們也密切關注最近有關當前貿易談判的新聞報道,這些談判涉及卡特公司生產受高關稅影響最大的國家。目前情況仍然瞬息萬變,我們正在即時追蹤最新進展。如果最高法院最終就提高關稅這一整體問題作出裁決,我們顯然會尋求追回迄今為止已支付的大量額外關稅。

  • Turning to page 20, as noted in today's press release, we have not reinstated sales and earnings guidance given the ongoing and significant uncertainty regarding tariffs. We're still in the early days of gauging consumers' response to higher prices and seeing how our peers and the competition will deal with the challenge of tariffs, but I'll try to be helpful in providing some perspective on how we're thinking about the fourth quarter.

    翻到第 20 頁,正如今天的新聞稿中所述,鑑於關稅方面持續存在的重大不確定性,我們尚未恢復銷售和盈利預期。我們目前仍處於評估消費者對價格上漲的反應以及觀察同行和競爭對手如何應對關稅挑戰的早期階段,但我會盡力提供一些關於我們如何看待第四季度的觀點,希望能有所幫助。

  • Historically, the holiday season has been a strong period in our business as our products are a natural fit for this time of year as families with young children gather and celebrate together. Our teams, particularly in US Retail, are focused on continuing the momentum we've experienced over the last couple of quarters and delivering a strong finish to the year. And we think our product and marketing initiatives, supported by a meaningfully improved inventory position versus last year, provided good support for a strong finish to the year.

    從歷史上看,假日是我們業務的旺季,因為我們的產品非常適合這個時期,因為有小孩的家庭會聚在一起慶祝。我們的團隊,特別是美國零售團隊,正致力於延續過去幾季以來的發展勢頭,力爭在今年取得強勁的收官成績。我們認為,在庫存狀況較去年顯著改善的支持下,我們的產品和行銷舉措為今年取得強勁的收官成績提供了良好的支撐。

  • In our US Retail business, the combined November and December period has historically represented about 75% of our fourth-quarter retail sales volume, so the lion's share of our quarter is still ahead of us. We're planning a low-single-digit comp in US Retail in the fourth quarter, which compares to a down 3% comp last year. We're planning continued progress in increasing AURs, although at a rate less than what we achieved in the third quarter, in part due to the more promotional nature of the fourth quarter generally.

    在美國零售業務中,11 月和 12 月的銷售額歷來約佔第四季度零售銷售額的 75%,因此本季的大部分銷售額尚未到來。我們預計第四季度美國零售業務的同店銷售額將實現個位數低幅成長,而去年同期則下降了 3%。我們計劃繼續提高平均用戶訪問量 (AUR),儘管增速會低於第三季度,部分原因是第四季度整體上促銷活動較多。

  • In last year's fourth quarter, we had a particularly strong performance in late October over the Black Friday promotional period and during Christmas week. Our teams have put together a good promotional plan to comp our good performance in the holiday selling period last year, supported by this meaningfully improved year over year position and inventory and our increase in paid media.

    去年第四季度,我們在10月下旬的黑色星期五促銷期和聖誕節期間表現特別強勁。為了延續去年假期銷售期間的良好業績,我們的團隊制定了一項完善的促銷計劃,這得益於我們同比顯著改善的庫存和銷量,以及付費媒體投入的增加。

  • Comparable sales so far in Q4 are off to a good start. Our quarter-to-date US Retail comps are up about 7%. We're planning wholesale sales down in the low-single digits in the fourth quarter, largely driven by an expectation for continued lower demand with Simple Joys. We've planned sales in the balance of our Wholesale segment up in the fourth quarter. And we're expecting sales growth in the International segment driven by Canada and Mexico to cap off what has been a good year in this part of our business.

    第四季迄今的同店銷售額開局良好。本季迄今為止,美國零售同店銷售額成長約 7%。我們預計第四季度批發銷售額將下降個位數百分比,這主要是由於對 Simple Joys 的需求持續走低的預期所致。我們計劃在第四季度提高批發業務剩餘部分的銷售額。我們預計,在加拿大和墨西哥的推動下,國際市場的銷售成長將為我們業務這一部分良好的一年畫下圓滿的句號。

  • We're expecting the gross margin rate will be down year over year in the fourth quarter, more so than what we had posted in the third quarter, in the neighborhood of 43% due to a larger gross impact of tariffs, investment and product make, and somewhat less of an offsetting benefit from pricing. As I said previously, our current estimate for the net impact of higher tariffs on fourth-quarter earnings is in the range of $25 million to $35 million.

    我們預計第四季毛利率將年減,降幅將大於第三季公佈的水平,約為 43%,這是由於關稅、投資和產品製造的毛利率影響較大,而價格帶來的抵銷效應較小。正如我之前所說,我們目前估計,關稅提高對第四季度收益的淨影響在 2500 萬美元至 3500 萬美元之間。

  • Spending is expected to increase at a mid-single-digit rate in the fourth quarter. This would be less than the rate of growth in SG&A in the third quarter. Below the line, we're planning for higher net interest costs and a higher effective tax rate than a year ago. As it relates to 2026, we're still developing our plans for next year, but on a preliminary basis, we're planning growth in both sales and earnings.

    預計第四季支出將以中等個位數的速度成長。這將低於第三季銷售、管理及行政費用的成長率。在財務報表下方,我們預計淨利息成本和實際稅率將比一年前更高。至於 2026 年,我們仍在製定明年的計劃,但初步來看,我們計劃在銷售額和利潤方面都實現成長。

  • Our sales growth will be planned higher than in a typical year given the price increases we're putting in place in response to tariffs. Gross margin rate will likely be lower due to the net unfavorable impact of tariffs and changes in the mix of customers within the US Wholesale channel.

    鑑於我們為應對關稅而實施的價格上漲,我們的銷售成長計​​劃將高於往年平均水平。由於關稅的不利影響以及美國批發通路客戶組合的變化,毛利率可能會降低。

  • We're expecting a substantial benefit in 2026 from our productivity initiatives, but the entire estimated $45 million in savings will not simply drop to the bottom line. These savings will help offset the significant impact of the higher tariffs, other inflationary pressures across the business, and will help to fund investments for planning, including marketing as discussed.

    我們預計到 2026 年,我們的生產力提升計畫將帶來巨大的收益,但預計節省的 4,500 萬美元並不會全部直接計入利潤。這些節省下來的資金將有助於抵消關稅上漲和企業其他通膨壓力的重大影響,並有助於為規劃投資提供資金,包括先前討論過的行銷投資。

  • We'll have more to say about our expectations for the new year on our next call, which will incorporate the perspectives from the holiday season and our latest read on the outlook for the consumer and broader marketplace. We're tracking a number of risks, including the persistence of inflation throughout the economy and its possible impact on consumer demand across a wide range of purchase categories. We're also watching the overall level of consumer confidence and employment data with both metrics showing some deterioration in recent months.

    我們將在下次電話會議上詳細闡述我們對新年的預期,屆時將結合假日季的情況以及我們對消費者和更廣泛市場前景的最新解讀進行討論。我們正在追蹤多項風險,包括通貨膨脹在整個經濟中的持續存在及其可能對各種購買類別中的消費者需求產生的影響。我們也關註消費者信心和就業數據的整體水平,這兩個指標近幾個月來都出現了一些惡化。

  • With those remarks, I'll turn it back to Doug.

    說完這些,我就把麥克風交還給道格。

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Richard. This next step in our journey comes at a pivotal moment for Carter's. While our transformation is still underway, we're seeing clear proof that our strategies are working and gaining momentum, and we must feed that inertia where we can yield the highest returns.

    謝謝你,理查。對卡特公司而言,我們所踏出的這一步正值關鍵時刻。雖然我們的轉型仍在進行中,但我們已經清楚地看到,我們的策略正在奏效並不斷取得進展,我們必須利用這種勢頭在能夠獲得最高回報的地方繼續前進。

  • I am sincerely grateful to all Carter's employees for their ongoing dedication to our business in creating this acceleration. We're also making deliberate, tough choices to strengthen our business and our profitability. There's much more to come, and we look forward to providing additional detail as we progress into 2026.

    我衷心感謝卡特的所有員工,感謝他們為公司的發展所做的持續貢獻,而正是他們的努力才促成了公司的加速發展。我們也在做出審慎而艱難的選擇,以增強我們的業務和獲利能力。未來還有更多精彩內容,我們期待在 2026 年提供更多細節。

  • Now I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

    現在我將把電話轉回給接線生進行問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Kelly Crago, Citi.

    (操作說明)凱利·克拉戈,花旗銀行。

  • Kelly Crago - Analyst

    Kelly Crago - Analyst

  • This is Kelly on for Paul. Thanks for taking our question. First one on -- I have two questions, one in the wholesale channel, one on the on the Retail side. First on US wholesale. I guess, could you speak to a little bit more about what's happening with the Simple Joys brand exactly, like kind of what's the go for -- I think you mentioned you're going to maybe reduce that brand, but so what's going to put -- come in its place exactly.

    這裡是凱莉替保羅報道。感謝您回答我們的問題。首先──我有兩個問題,一個是關於批發通路的,一個是關於零售通路的。美國批發市場首度。我想,您能否再詳細談談 Simple Joys 品牌的情況,例如,您打算用什麼來替代它——我想您提到過您可能會縮減這個品牌的規模,那麼究竟會用什麼來取代它呢?

  • And then if you could just elaborate on the pricing that you're seeing the wholesale channel. I think you mentioned pricing AUR is at mid-single-digits and 3Q in Retail, just curious where that is on the wholesale side and how that's looking for the spring. And then just one follow up on retail.

    然後,您能否詳細說明一下您在批發管道看到的定價?我想你有提到零售價 AUR 為個位數中段,第三季度,我只是好奇批發價的情況如何,以及春季的前景如何。然後,就零售業進行了一次後續跟進。

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure, Kelly. I'll start out on wholesale, and I know Doug wants to have some comments as well. So Simple Joys is the newest component of the Exclusive Brands portfolio. It's also the smallest part of that business. So that brand launched back in 2017. It really was kind of a different time period. We had considered for a number of years offering the flagship, the core brands, Carter's and OshKosh B'Gosh on Amazon. Had -- for a number of reasons chosen not to do that back in that era. And so Simple Joys really was a terrific choice for that particular moment in time.

    當然可以,凱莉。我先從批發業務說起,我知道道格也想發表一些意見。So Simple Joys 是 Exclusive Brands 旗下最新的品牌。這也是該業務中最小的一部分。這個品牌是在2017年推出的。那真是個截然不同的時代。多年來,我們一直在考慮在亞馬遜上銷售我們的旗艦核心品牌 Carter's 和 OshKosh B'Gosh。當時由於種種原因,我選擇不這麼做。因此,《簡單的快樂》在那個特定的時期確實是個絕佳的選擇。

  • We were treated extremely well by Amazon and really treated as their private label, which led to really rapid growth in the brand. I think we've just entered kind of a new phase with everything that they've had going on as a company and some choices that they've made around how they manage brands. We think probably the better path forward is now to revisit that decision around the core flagship brand.

    亞馬遜對我們非常友好,真的把我們當成他們的自有品牌來對待,這使得品牌發展非常迅速。我認為,鑑於該公司目前的發展狀況以及他們在品牌管理方面做出的一些選擇,我們已經進入了一個新階段。我們認為,現在更好的辦法可能是重新審視圍繞核心旗艦品牌的決策。

  • So I think that's going to be the path going forward is taking the Carter's brand, the OshKosh brand, and other brands that we may have in the portfolio. And Amazon continues to be certainly a super important channel of distribution for us.

    所以我認為,未來的發展方向就是將 Carter's 品牌、OshKosh 品牌以及我們旗下其他品牌也納入其中。亞馬遜對我們來說仍然是一個極為重要的分銷管道。

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. We're already building the framework necessary to lean into the Amazon model with all of our brands. So I am confident that we would be able to build a much more meaningful, lasting business, beyond Simple Joys with all the Carter's brands. To touch just briefly on the rest of the Wholesale business, what I would share is that we have gone deep with our key accounts to really understand what unlocking future growth is.

    是的。我們已經在建立必要的框架,以便讓旗下所有品牌都能向亞馬遜模式靠近。因此,我相信我們能夠利用 Carter's 的所有品牌,打造一個比 Simple Joys 更有意義、更持久的業務。關於批發業務的其他方面,我想簡單談談,我們已經與主要客戶進行了深入溝通,並真正了解如何釋放未來的成長潛力。

  • The back and forth on the right products to make, the right assortments to offer, has led to meaningful change in how we operate with our key accounts and the results that we're seeing through H1 sell-in. So we don't have any sell-through on higher prices in Wholesale yet. That won't impact us until January.

    在選擇合適的產品、提供合適的商品組合方面反覆斟酌,已經對我們與主要客戶的合作方式以及我們上半年的銷售業績產生了重大影響。所以目前批發通路還沒有出現漲價銷售的狀況。那要到一月才會對我們產生影響。

  • But on sell-in, we are seeing very positive results that lead us to believe that these higher prices will be accepted. I think it's also really important to keep in mind that the value proposition that we offer remains widely intact even with higher prices, right? So the style, the quality, the price that we offer our product at will continue to be a distinct competitive advantage for Carter's moving forward even with the impact of higher pricing due to tariff mitigation.

    但就銷售而言,我們看到了非常積極的結果,這讓我們相信這些更高的價格將被接受。我認為同樣重要的是要記住,即使價格上漲,我們提供的價值主張仍然基本上保持不變,對吧?因此,即使受到關稅緩解措施導致價格上漲的影響,我們提供的產品款式、品質和價格仍將是 Carter's 未來發展的明顯競爭優勢。

  • Kelly Crago - Analyst

    Kelly Crago - Analyst

  • That's so helpful.

    這太有幫助了。

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Kelly, on your question on wholesale pricing in the third quarter. Roughly comparable, which is kind of in line. We have more degrees of freedom in our own retail channel and that's where the improvement in realized pricing occurred in in Q3.

    Kelly,關於你提出的第三季批發價格問題。大致相當,這基本上符合預期。我們在自己的零售通路中擁有更大的自由度,這也是第三季實際定價改善的原因。

  • Kelly Crago - Analyst

    Kelly Crago - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks. And then I just wanted to ask about the store closings, and I think that you said that you would expect, once the 150 stores are closed, for that to be created to profitability and there's a sales transfer assumption there. I guess, could you elaborate on what you're kind of assuming for the sales transfer to there, and just any other color you could provide on how you've seen this play out.

    知道了。謝謝。然後我想問一下關於門店關閉的問題,我想您說過,一旦關閉了 150 家門店,預計就能實現盈利,並且存在銷售轉移的假設。我想,您能否詳細說明您對銷售轉移到那裡的假設,以及您觀察到的任何其他情況。

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So as the release indicates, it's about 150 stores. That's across North America, so it includes some stores in Canada and Mexico. To Doug's comment, the plan is to close the majority of those stores at lease expiration. There are a handful that we think may be subject to the kickout clauses and would close before their natural lease expiration, but I think that would be in the minority.

    當然。正如新聞稿中所述,大約有 150 家門市。這涵蓋整個北美地區,因此也包括加拿大和墨西哥的一些門市。針對道格的評論,計劃是在租約到期後關閉大部分門市。我們認為有少數房產可能受到驅逐條款的限制,會在租賃期滿前關閉,但我認為這種情況只佔少數。

  • On a last 12-month basis, those stores did about $110 million in revenue. I would say they were kind of marginally profitable, and our history over time shows that there's about a 20% transfer rate to nearby stores and to our e-commerce channels. So leveraging the fixed cost and the asset base that's already in place, those tend to be pretty high margin flow through. So we would expect this at the end of the day to be accretive to operating income relative to the small margin that those stores are generating today.

    過去 12 個月,這些門市的收入約為 1.1 億美元。我認為它們的獲利能力勉強過得去,而且我們過往的記錄顯示,大約有 20% 的商品會轉移到附近的門市和我們的電商通路。因此,利用固定成本和現有的資產基礎,這些往往能帶來相當高的利潤率。因此,我們預計最終這將增加營業收入,相對於這些門市目前產生的微薄利潤而言。

  • Kelly Crago - Analyst

    Kelly Crago - Analyst

  • Thank you. Best of luck.

    謝謝。祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jay Sole, UBS.

    Jay Sole,瑞銀集團。

  • Jay Sole - Analyst

    Jay Sole - Analyst

  • I'd love to ask about your preliminary 2026 view on sales growth being higher than a typical year, given that, like you just said, you're closing 150 stores, the Wholesale business has been on declining trends. The -- I think Richard, you mentioned some of the indicators -- macro indicators are looking a little bit weaker the last couple of months.

    我想問一下您對 2026 年銷售成長的初步預測,即銷售成長會高於往年,因為正如您剛才所說,您正在關閉 150 家門市,批發業務也呈下降趨勢。理查德,我想你提到了一些指標——宏觀指標在過去幾個月裡看起來有些疲軟。

  • Just tell us how -- what do you exactly do you mean by sales growth higher than the table here? Can you give us like a general number or range and then just the algorithm to get there? How do you expect to do that?

    請具體說明一下—您所說的「高於表格所示水準的銷售成長」究竟是什麼意思?您能否提供一個大致的數字或範圍,以及實現該數字或範圍的演算法?你打算如何做到這一點?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to be much more specific on it. It's unusual for us to be commenting on the new year on this call, so that's more typically the February year-end earnings call. So I think I'll stick to that discipline. I will say though, the reason I commented on it was that we're expecting more of a benefit from pricing because AURs are going to go up, and they're going up meaningfully across the assortment. That's what we need to do with a tariff challenge that represents that gross number of plus $200 million.

    是的,我不知道我是否還要說得更具體。我們通常不會在這次電話會議上評論新年,所以這通常是在二月份的年終財報電話會議上才會討論的問題。所以我想我會堅持這種自律精神。不過,我要說的是,我之所以對此發表評論,是因為我們預計價格上漲會帶來更多好處,因為平均使用率 (AUR) 將會上漲,而且整個產品系列的平均使用率都會大幅上漲。這就是我們需要做的,以應對總額超過 2 億美元的關稅挑戰。

  • So more will be driven by pricing in 2026 and less by units. We do still have some unit growth planned. I think an important macro assumption is that this is an industry issue, that we think everyone in the industry is going to be raising their prices, so we don't believe we're going to be an outlier. I think our teams have done a good job maintaining our competitiveness with the market.

    因此,到 2026 年,價格將更多地驅動市場,而銷量將減少。我們仍然計劃進行一些單元增長。我認為一個重要的宏觀假設是,這是一個行業問題,我們認為業內所有企業都會提高價格,所以我們不認為我們會成為例外。我認為我們的團隊在保持市場競爭力方面做得很好。

  • We have some really good rigor organizationally and process wise here internally that looks at that common basket of goods to make sure that we're not out of bounds with our primary competitors where shoe shopping most typically. So we don't want that -- we don't want to have that spread widened out. That tends to be when our business has dropped off a bit.

    我們在組織和流程方面內部有著非常嚴格的規定,會專注於常見的商品類別,以確保我們在鞋類購物領域不會與主要競爭對手越界。所以我們不希望這種情況發生──我們不希望疫情擴散得更廣。這時我們的業務往往會略為下滑。

  • So we're assuming that we're swimming in the same pool with everyone else, that everyone else is raising their prices, but more of the revenue gains next year will be driven by price than units.

    所以我們假設我們和其他人一樣都在同一個競爭環境中,其他人都在提高價格,但明年收入的成長更多是由價格上漲而不是銷量成長驅動的。

  • Jay Sole - Analyst

    Jay Sole - Analyst

  • Okay, I understand. Richard, that's helpful. Maybe, Doug, if I can ask you just one question. On the rightsizing organization initiatives, you're talking about meaningful reduction and -- reduction, of course, in office-based roles. A disciplined spending management across your organization. The company historically has always been pretty tight on controlling SG&A.

    好的,我明白了。理查德,這很有幫助。道格,或許我可以問你一個問題。關於組織規模調整計劃,你指的是實質的裁員,當然,裁員指的是辦公室崗位的裁員。在公司內部實施嚴格的支出管理。公司歷來對銷售、一般及行政費用控制非常嚴格。

  • How do you get comfortable that you can drive these savings and be able to offset the cost of tariffs, but not necessarily lose something important in terms of company's operational ability and just the ability to execute and serve the consumer the way that the brand -- the way you want it to and the way the brand wants to.

    如何確保在實現這些節省並抵消關稅成本的同時,不會在公司運營能力以及以品牌想要的方式(即你希望的方式和品牌希望的方式)執行和服務消費者的能力方面損失重要的東西?

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks, Jay. There's really two things happening there. The first one is the one you called out. We're trying to take cost out of the business and have a meaningful impact on our near-term profitability, that's happening. The part you didn't mention that is equally important to me is to take complexity out of our system.

    是的。謝謝你,傑伊。實際上,那裡發生了兩件事。第一個就是你點出來的那個。我們正在努力降低業務成本,並希望對近期獲利能力產生實質影響,而這正在發生。你沒提到的一點對我來說同樣重要,那就是簡化我們的系統。

  • We simply need fewer people having greater ownership and accountability for us to get where we need to be. Clear ownership in the most important processes across the most important growth factors for our business, and then accountability on the results of those opportunities is really how we are going to show up going forward. So yes, cost savings important part, but removing complexity and fewer people with greater ownership and accountability are equally important here.

    我們只需要減少人員數量,但要讓更多人承擔責任,就能達到我們想要的目標。明確我們業務成長關鍵因素中最重要流程的所有權,並對這些機會的結果負責,這才是我們未來發展真正的方式。所以,節省成本固然重要,但減少複雜性、減少人員數量並賦予他們更大的責任和擔當也同樣重要。

  • Jay Sole - Analyst

    Jay Sole - Analyst

  • Got it. Understood. Very helpful. Thank you.

    知道了。明白了。很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ike Boruchow, Wells Fargo.

    艾克·博魯喬夫,富國銀行。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Thanks for the question. A couple for me. First quick clarification on the Q4, the wholesale down low-single, is that with -- you guys do have an extra week, just to clarify that, so is that with the extra week? And if so, what's the organic number?

    謝謝你的提問。給我一對。首先,關於第四季度,批發價格下跌的單價,需要快速澄清一下——你們確實多了一周的時間,所以這是包含額外一周的時間嗎?如果屬實,那麼有機物含量是多少?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • That's correct. The 53rd week is worth about $30 million in total.

    沒錯。第 53 週的總價值約為 3000 萬美元。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Okay. Is that split pretty evenly between Wholesale and Retail?

    好的。批發和零售的比例大致是否相當?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Well, we'll dig that up for you. I don't know off the top of my head, but we certainly will dig that up for you.

    好的,我們會幫你查清楚。我一時想不起來,但我們一定會幫你查清楚。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Okay. On the store closure plan, I mean, just for round numbers, are you effectively saying that you expect to end next year in the US with roughly 700 stores and then roughly 650 stores. I just know you've been opening a few and you're talking about maybe a few more openings. I'm just trying to make sure I know what the number is going to be going to.

    好的。關於門市關閉計劃,我的意思是,就大概數字而言,您實際上是說您預計明年年底在美國將擁有大約 700 家門店,然後大約 650 家門市嗎?我只知道你最近開了好幾家店,而且你還在考慮再開幾家。我只是想確認一下這個數字最終會指向哪裡。

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I think that's directionally correct, Ike.

    我覺得方向是對的,艾克。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Okay. The Simple Joys, I think Kelly had asked about it, is there any way you could kind of just give us a little bit more detail there? What's the size of it today? It sounds like you're kind of saying you expect to replace it with your core branded business. Is there any more detail you can give us on the sizing, and is that a headwind? I mean, you called it out of the headwind and 3Q and 4Q. Is that a headwind we should be expecting to kind of continue into next year, just any more detail there.

    好的。關於《簡單的快樂》,我想凱莉問過我們,您能否給我們詳細介紹一下?現在它有多大?聽起來你好像是想說你打算用你的核心品牌業務來取代它。關於尺寸方面,您能提供更多細節嗎?這是否為不利因素?我的意思是,你預測到了逆風、第三節和第四節的比賽結果。我們是否應該預料到這種不利因素會持續到明年?能否提供更多細節?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I don't want to comment too much. It's unusual for us to comment on individual wholesale customer relationships, so -- and we certainly go to some lengths not to not to size those. As I said, it is the smallest part of the Exclusive Brands, which in total, represent about half of our Wholesale segment sales. So it is a bit of drag on revenue. That's we called it out because it was material enough to the segment results and to the company results to do so.

    是的,我不想多說什麼。我們通常不會評論個別批發客戶關係,所以——而且我們當然會竭盡全力避免對這些關係進行任何評論。正如我所說,它是獨家品牌中最小的一部分,而獨家品牌總共約占我們批發業務銷售額的一半。所以這對收入有一定的拖累。我們之所以特別指出這一點,是因為它對部門業績和公司業績都產生了足夠大的影響。

  • It will be a bit of a drag, I would think into next year, but I think we're excited about the opportunity of what the core brands could mean on the Amazon platform over time.

    我覺得這可能會持續到明年,但考慮到核心品牌在亞馬遜平台上的長期發展前景,我們感到非常興奮。

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's a bigger opportunity. Our own brands are a bigger opportunity than what we're winding down with Simple Joys is how I'd answer the question.

    這是一個更大的機會。我會這樣回答這個問題:我們自己的品牌比我們正在逐步結束的 Simple Joys 品牌擁有更大的機會。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Got it. Understood. And then it's the last one for me. I know Jay tried to talk about the top line, and I appreciate, Richard, you don't want to go there. But if we just leave top line aside, could you just help me understand a little bit better? You've laid out the productivity initiatives which makes sense in our materials, so roughly $45 million. But the tariff headwind on the wraparound is decently more than that.

    知道了。明白了。那對我來說就是最後一個了。我知道傑伊試圖談論主要問題,理查德,我很感激你不想談這個問題。但如果拋開主要問題不談,能否幫我更能理解一下?您提出的生產力提升計畫在我們看來是合理的,大約需要 4500 萬美元。但關稅對包銷的影響遠不止於此。

  • You're also saying you want to invest in demand creation and then you also lose a week and there's some other little things in there. But I guess just where's the confidence coming from that you guys have to call out earnings growth in the next year just because it seems like you've got the right strategies in place. It just seems like you still have more pressure coming next year to kind of deal with. So I don't know if there's anything else you could share to help us understand where the confidence comes from?

    你還說你想投資創造需求,然後你又損失了一週時間,還有一些其他的小問題。但我很好奇,你們的信心從何而來,以至於敢於預測明年的獲利成長,僅僅因為你們似乎已經制定了正確的策略。感覺明年你還要應付更大的壓力。所以,我不知道您還能分享些什麼,幫助我們了解您的自信源自於何處?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I would say a couple of things in response, Ike. One, we are seeing some progress and some acceptance from the consumer in raising prices. That needs to be a key element. There needs to be more of that that happens in 2026 to cover the bigger gross tariff exposure. So we are assuming that we have success in raising prices and the consumer broadly accepts that without tremendous pushback.

    是的。艾克,我有幾點要回應。第一,我們看到消費者在提價方面取得了一些進展並有所接受。那必須是關鍵要素。2026 年需要有更多這樣的措施來應對更大的關稅總額風險。因此,我們假設提價能夠成功,而且消費者普遍接受,不會有太大的阻力。

  • I would say also, we are expecting the benefit of the productivity initiatives. And we're also assuming good return from the marketing investments as well, the demand creation investments. We've seen some of those proof points start to come through our business. Some of the work we've done over the last number of months have indicated we clearly under-index the peers relative to the peer set relative to what we spend on marketing. So we've been stepping into that, I think, with some good returns.

    我想說,我們也期待提高生產力措施帶來的益處。我們也假設行銷投資和需求創造投資也能獲得良好的回報。我們已經在業務中開始看到一些這樣的例證。我們過去幾個月所做的一些工作表明,相對於我們的行銷支出而言,我們在行銷方面的投入明顯低於同行水準。所以我覺得,我們已經開始涉足這個領域,並且取得了一些不錯的成果。

  • And so we're expecting to see more of that. So we think that marketing investment actually is accretive to the top line and bottom line next year. So you put all that together with the productivity savings with the ability to cover most, not all, but a good portion of those gross tariff exposures, it leads to positive growth in operating income. And just to follow up on your question on the 53rd week, it's worth about $5 million at wholesale.

    因此,我們預計會看到更多這樣的情況。因此我們認為,明年的營銷投資實際上會增加營收和利潤。因此,將所有這些因素與生產力提升帶來的節約結合起來,能夠涵蓋大部分(雖然不是全部,但相當一部分)關稅總額,就能實現營業收入的正成長。關於您提出的第 53 週的問題,它的批發價值約為 500 萬美元。

  • Ike Boruchow - Analyst

    Ike Boruchow - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thank you so much.

    好的。偉大的。太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Nardone, Bank of America.

    克里斯·納爾多內,美國銀行。

  • Christopher Nardone - Analyst

    Christopher Nardone - Analyst

  • So just a couple of follow-up questions. So going back to the sales growth expectation for next year, is there anything different in your business today versus the prior period of price inflation that's giving you more confidence that you can grow sales, both maybe AUR and units?

    那麼,還有幾個後續問題。那麼,回到明年的銷售成長預期,與先前的物價通膨時期相比,您目前的業務有哪些不同之處,讓您更有信心實現銷售成長,包括平均用戶收入和銷售量?

  • And then can you just give us an update what you're seeing from your competition so far? Are they increasing pricing at a similar level? And how are you planning for the promotional environment into the holidays?

    那麼,您能否簡要介紹一下您目前從競爭對手那裡了解到的情況?他們的漲價幅度是否與此類似?那麼,你們如何規劃假日期間的促銷活動呢?

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I'll just talk about a few reasons to believe in our current business that gives us faith going forward into 2026, Chris. The first thing I would say is that we are seeing growth in our better and best categories of business. That by nature is higher AUR business for us. The second thing is that our brands are bringing in more new consumers.

    是的。克里斯,我只想談談我們目前業務發展前景的幾個原因,這些原因讓我們對 2026 年充滿信心。首先我想說的是,我們在較好和最好的業務類別中看到了成長。從本質上講,這對我們來說是更高的AUR業務。第二點是,我們的品牌正在吸引更多的新消費者。

  • So our consumer base is growing as our market share returns. And we are seeing a lot of the newness in consumers coming from those younger Gen Z families. And so there's a lot of opportunity there and reasons to believe our business is getting better there as well. I think it's across our brands, too. It's not just Carter's.

    隨著市場份額的恢復,我們的客戶群也在不斷成長。我們看到,消費者群體中的許多新成員都來自更年輕的 Z 世代家庭。因此,那裡有很多機會,我們有理由相信,我們在那裡的業務也在不斷好轉。我認為這種情況也存在於我們旗下的所有品牌中。不只是卡特百貨。

  • We're seeing growth in Oshkosh. We're seeing growth in Little Planet. We're seeing the launch of our toddler-specific Otter Avenue brand growing as well. And so there are meaningful growth vectors across our brands, across ages, across product categories. And in those better best buckets, bringing in new consumers on top of that, we believe that bodes well for what's coming down the road in 2026.

    我們看到奧什科甚正在發展壯大。我們看到小星球正在發展壯大。我們看到,我們為幼兒推出的 Otter Avenue 品牌也正在不斷成長。因此,我們的品牌、各個年齡層、各個產品類別都存在著有意義的成長點。在這些更好的領域,再加上吸引新的消費者,我們相信這對 2026 年的發展前景來說是個好兆頭。

  • Richard?

    理查德?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • And Chris, on pricing, just in general, I would say we are the market leader, so we intend to exhibit market leadership here. And in the past, when we've needed to raise prices because there's been some sort of an external shock to the system years ago when cotton doubled in price in a fairly short order, we had to raise prices meaningfully. We were able to do so. So I would say that the offset could be some loss of unit velocity.

    克里斯,關於定價,總的來說,我認為我們是市場領導者,所以我們打算在這裡展現市場領導地位。過去,當我們需要提高價格時,因為幾年前系統受到了某種外部衝擊,例如棉花價格在相當短的時間內翻了一番,我們不得不大幅提高價格。我們做到了。所以我認為偏移量可能是單位速度的損失。

  • That's something that we're continuing to work through. I think our operational and our inventory teams have been really thoughtful where we think we may lose some unit intensity. We're reflecting that in our inventory commitments. On balance, in our Retail business where we control more of our destiny, I think we've made a bit more of an investment in units to be able to do the business. There's probably a bit more at wholesale that you would expect that perhaps you could lose a bit of unit velocity there.

    這是我們正在努力解決的問題。我認為我們的營運和庫存團隊在考慮我們可能會損失一些銷售方面考慮得非常周全。我們已將這一點反映在我們的庫存承諾中。總的來說,在我們零售業務中,我們對自身命運的掌控力更強,我認為我們已經對門市進行了更多投資,以便能夠開展業務。批發環節可能會比你預期的要多一些,因此你可能會損失一些單位週轉率。

  • But I think we're being really thoughtful about it. And I think, again, this is an industry issue. We're in a lot of the same factories as our wholesale customers, we see their product when we go to visit those vendors. So this is not a situation where our cost structure or our supply chain is somehow disadvantaged versus the industry. If anything, I think we have better cost than a lot of our peers in the industry.

    但我認為我們在這方面考慮得非常周全。而且我認為,這又是一個行業問題。我們和批發客戶有很多相同的工廠,我們去拜訪這些供應商時會看到他們的產品。所以,這並不是說我們的成本結構或供應鏈相對於產業而言處於劣勢。如果說有什麼優勢的話,我認為我們的成本比業內很多同行都要低。

  • This is something that everyone is going to have to face. And so our intent is to do so thoughtfully and continue to watch our competitiveness, as I mentioned earlier, but those are our plans to raise prices across the assortment.

    這是每個人都必須面對的問題。因此,正如我之前提到的,我們打算謹慎行事,並繼續關注我們的競爭力,但這些是我們提高全系列產品價格的計劃。

  • Christopher Nardone - Analyst

    Christopher Nardone - Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you. That was very helpful. And just a quick follow up on margins. So I appreciate the intro color for 2026. But as we think about the tariff impact maybe into the first half of next year relative to the $25 million to $35 million rate for 4Q, should that actually improve as you kind of ratchet up the mitigation, or could that actually be more of a pressure point as you really are baking in the new rates into your inventory for first half?

    明白了。謝謝。那很有幫助。最後再簡單補充一下利潤率方面的問題。所以我很喜歡2026年的開場顏色。但當我們考慮關稅對明年上半年的影響時,相較於第四季 2,500 萬至 3,500 萬美元的稅率,隨著緩解措施的逐步加強,情況是否會有所改善?或者,由於上半年的庫存中確實包含了新的稅率,這實際上是否會成為一個更大的壓力點?

  • And then sorry to also fill this in, but is there anything else on the gross margin we should be thinking about into next year, even directionally as it relates to labor, cotton costs, freight costs, anything worth calling out directionally?

    另外,不好意思再補充一點,關於毛利率,我們明年還有什麼需要考慮的嗎?例如勞動成本、棉花成本、運費成本等方面,有什麼值得特別指出的方向性問題嗎?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Well, I would say cotton has been a bit of wind in our sales. It's been remarkably stable and actually down year over year. So we're not particularly concerned about cotton inflation. So I guess I don't want to be too specific on what we think the net impact will be. I think our teams have done a good job mitigating to date.

    嗯,我覺得棉花對我們的銷售起了一定的推動作用。它一直非常穩定,而且實際上比去年同期下降。所以我們並不太擔心棉花價格上漲。所以,我想我最好還是不要對我們認為的最終影響做出過於具體的預測。我認為我們的團隊迄今為止在緩解風險方面做得很好。

  • And here in the second half of the year, it was never our intention to fully cover the cost of tariffs here in the second half of '25. It was too fluid of a situation. As we approach next year, we've had more time to absorb this. We've had more time to think about reticketing goods, which really hasn't been practical here in the second half of '25. It's been more of a response in [rationing] back promotional intensity in the business.

    而且,在今年下半年,我們從未打算完全承擔 2025 年下半年的關稅成本。當時的情況變化太快了。隨著明年臨近,我們有更多的時間來消化這些資訊。我們有更多時間考慮重新為商品貼標籤,這在 2025 年下半年實際上並不現實。這更多的是一種因應措施,即在商業活動中減少促銷。

  • So we have more of a pure kind of ticketing and pricing opportunity next year. It is our intent to cover the vast majority of this incremental tariff impact. Now it's a bigger gross impact than we had estimated before. So that is certainly a challenge. So pricing is a more significant element of it.

    因此,明年我們將擁有更純粹的票務和定價機會。我們的目標是涵蓋這部分新增關稅影響的絕大部分。現在實際造成的總影響比我們之前估計的還要大。這的確是一個挑戰。因此,定價是其中較重要的因素。

  • And as Doug said, there are other things beyond pricing that we're doing with our supply chain team in terms of working with our vendors, moving production. All of those are benefits in terms of reducing that gross tariff impact as well. So we're not entirely reliant on pricing to be the only weapon that we have here. It is the most significant. It is the most material, but it's certainly by no means the only thing that we're doing to mitigate the impact here.

    正如道格所說,除了定價之外,我們還在與供應鏈團隊合作,與供應商一起推動生產,做其他一些事情。所有這些因素都有利於降低關稅總影響。所以,我們並不完全依賴價格作為我們唯一的武器。這是最重要的。這是最實質的措施,但這絕不是我們為減輕這次影響而採取的唯一措施。

  • Christopher Nardone - Analyst

    Christopher Nardone - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good luck.

    謝謝。祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Chartier, Monness, Crespi, Hardt.

    吉姆·查蒂爾、莫內斯、克雷斯皮、哈特。

  • Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

    Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

  • Could you just let us know what is the gross impact from tariffs in fourth quarter?

    能否告知我們第四季關稅造成的總影響是多少?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Estimated to be about $40 million, Jim.

    吉姆,估計價值約4000萬美元。

  • Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

    Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

  • Okay. And then in terms of kind of October to date, what have you seen with pricing and AUR so far?

    好的。那麼,從 10 月至今,您觀察到的價格和 AUR 情況如何?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Pricing continues to be up so far. We just closed the month of October. It's up kind of in the high-single-digit range from memory.

    目前價格持續上漲。十月剛結束。我記得好像漲幅在個位數以上。

  • Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

    Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

  • Okay. And so the expectation is just that holiday gets more promotional and the AUR gains is about half of what you did in third quarter. Is that right?

    好的。因此,預計假期促銷活動會更多,平均營業額 (AUR) 的成長約為第三季的一半。是這樣嗎?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I don't know if I'll say half as much. Just the holiday season is more promotional in general. So I expect we'd give back some of that AUR gain as we get to the more promotional part of the quarter.

    是的。我不知道我是否會說一半那麼多。假日期間的促銷活動通常會更多。因此,我預計隨著季度進入促銷階段,我們會回吐一部分AUR的收益。

  • Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

    Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

  • Okay. And then the tax rate, is 24% a good number beyond 2025 as well?

    好的。那麼,2025年以後,24%的稅率是否仍是一個合適的數字?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I think that's probably a decent planning assumption.

    是的。我認為這應該是個合理的規劃假設。

  • Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

    Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you and best of luck.

    好的。謝謝,祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Kearney, Barclays.

    保羅‧卡尼,巴克萊銀行。

  • Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst

    Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. I'm just curious on the top line, if you're able to speak to the level of incremental price increases you're expecting for the retail channel for the first half? And I have a follow up.

    謝謝您回答我的問題。我只是想了解一下主要方面,您能否談談您預計上半年零售通路的價格漲幅是多少?我還有一個後續問題。

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • For the first half of next year, no, I think probably too soon to comment on that, Paul.

    至於明年上半年,恐怕現在評論還太早,保羅。

  • Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst

    Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. My next question is on the SG&A reductions and the cost savings and the reinvestment. I'm curious if there's anything we need to consider in terms of timing of some of these of when the savings flow through, when the reinvestment is expected?

    好的。我的下一個問題是關於銷售、一般及行政費用削減、成本節約和再投資。我很好奇,在儲蓄何時到位、預期何時再投資等時間安排方面,我們是否需要考慮什麼?

  • And then also, you spoke to improving returns on kind of the media spend. I'm curious if we can just drill down on that. What are you seeing in terms of the media spend thus far? And how is it being spent differently into next year?

    此外,您也談到如何提高媒體投入的報酬率。我很想知道我們是否可以深入探討這個問題。到目前為止,您看到的媒體支出如何?那麼,明年這些資金的用途會有哪些不同呢?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So on the SG&A savings, I would expect that it's January 1 when we're starting to realize the benefit of the run rate savings that we've articulated. So the reduction in force will be largely complete by the end of this year, so we'll start to get the organizational savings as we move into next year. The offset would be some of the demand creation investments that we articulated. That's about a $16 million.

    是的。因此,關於銷售、一般及行政費用的節省,我預計從 1 月 1 日起,我們將開始實現我們所闡述的定期節省帶來的好處。因此,裁員工作將在今年年底基本完成,我們將在明年開始獲得組織上的節省。抵銷措施將包括我們提出的一些創造需求的投資。那大約是1600萬美元。

  • That's a full-year number for next year. And Doug will offer some comments as well just in terms of the proof points we're seeing around marketing and the returns there. But we're going to step our way into it. We're going to continue to measure it rigorously. We're not going to write a check for that full amount, the first day. We're going to just make sure it continues to generate the kind of returns that we anticipate.

    這是明年全年的數字。Doug 也會對我們在行銷方面看到的證明點以及由此帶來的回報發表一些評論。但我們會一步一步地進入其中。我們將繼續嚴格測量它。第一天我們不會開出全額支票。我們將確保它繼續產生我們預期的那種回報。

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So in terms of what's going to be different from a demand creation investment perspective, the first thing I would say is that there are two things that we are focusing on, driving traffic to our owned platforms where we see outstanding results for every point we gain in traffic across our fleet, on our website, there's meaningful top- and bottom-line results.

    是的。所以,從需求創造投資的角度來看,有哪些不同?首先,我要說的是,我們目前專注於兩件事:一是引導流量到我們自己的平台,因為我們發現,在我們整個平台和網站上,流量每增加一點,就能帶來顯著的營收和利潤增長。

  • Second, consumer loyalty. And that has a lot to do with the experiences that we have on our sites and in our stores, on our apps with our loyalty program as well as the stories we tell about our brands and our products. Traditionally, over the past many years, Carter's messaging has been very focused on price and promotion.

    其次,是消費者忠誠度。這與我們在網站、商店、應用程式上的體驗,以及我們的會員計劃,以及我們講述的關於品牌和產品的故事都密切相關。傳統上,在過去的許多年裡,卡特的宣傳重點一直放在價格和促銷上。

  • What you're already seeing is a lot more storytelling around product newness, product innovation, and what each of our brands has to offer, which drives much more affinity and loyalty with consumers as well. So we will be tracking very closely against increasing traffic and increasing our resonance with consumers through loyalty.

    現在您看到的更多內容是圍繞產品新穎性、產品創新以及我們每個品牌所能提供的產品和服務的故事,這也有助於提高消費者的親和力和忠誠度。因此,我們將密切關注流量成長情況,並透過提高消費者忠誠度來增強我們與消費者的共鳴。

  • Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst

    Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you. Best of luck.

    謝謝。祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Janet Kloppenburg, JJK Research Associates.

    珍妮特‧克洛彭堡 (Janet Kloppenburg),JJK 研究助理。

  • Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

  • Thank you for the details, repositioning program. I wanted to ask if I got this right, Richard. Your comps are up, and that's being driven by price. And is that against high promotional levels last year, which are not happening this year?

    謝謝你提供的詳細信息,重新定位計劃。理查德,我想問我理解得對不對。你的同類產品價格上漲了,這是由價格上漲所推動的。這是與去年高額的促銷力道(而今年卻沒有)相比嗎?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • In general, yes, Janet. So it was the second half of last year that, if you recall, we made a pretty considerable investment in increasing the promotional intensity of the business, also adding some marketing, but it was a significant reset in pricing a year ago. So we're up against that period this year, which is why we're encouraged by the gains in AUR and the positive comps.

    總的來說,是的,珍妮特。所以,如果你還記得的話,去年下半年我們投入了相當大的資金來加大業務的促銷力度,也增加了一些營銷活動,但一年前我們在價格方面進行了重大調整。所以今年我們正面臨著這樣的時期,這也是為什麼我們對 AUR 的成長和正面的業績比較感到鼓舞的原因。

  • Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

  • And you spoke about Amazon. What about your other exclusive brand partners? Are they accepting the price increases as you implement them?

    你還談到了亞馬遜。你們其他的獨家品牌合作夥伴呢?他們是否接受你實施的價格上漲?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Again, I don't know if I'm going to comment specifically on those two customers. I would say we've had very constructive conversations with our wholesale customers, and they certainly are facing the same tariff and cost pressures that we are. So those have been good discussions. It's never easy to raise price in the wholesale channel, but I would say we've got a great level of partnership with all of our wholesale customers.

    是的。再次聲明,我不知道是否要對這兩位顧客發表具體評論。我認為我們與批發客戶進行了非常有建設性的對話,他們當然也面臨著和我們一樣的關稅和成本壓力。這些討論都很有啟發性。在批發管道提價從來都不是一件容易的事,但我認為我們與所有批發客戶都建立了良好的合作關係。

  • Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

  • And can you discuss how much your clearance -- where your clearance inventories are year over year?

    您能否談談貴公司的清倉庫存情-也就是你們的清倉庫存每年的變化?

  • Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I would say on balance, in an improved position year over year exiting the third quarter. That was an issue year ago as well with some of the price that we were taking at retail was to clear through some of, in particular, spring season goods that had carried over into this early fall time period. We did not have that issue this year.

    總的來說,我認為截至第三季末,公司狀況較去年同期有所改善。一年前我們也遇到這個問題,當時我們在零售方面採取的一些降價措施是為了清理一些庫存,特別是春季商品,這些商品一直延續到初秋時期。今年我們沒有遇到這個問題。

  • And I would say inventory balance is much more oriented around current and future seasons than it is past seasons. So I think inventory quality is very good at the moment.

    而且我認為,庫存平衡更多是圍繞著當前和未來的季節,而不是過去的季節。所以我認為目前的庫存品質非常好。

  • Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

  • And for Doug, you just touched on this a minute ago, but do you think some of this response on a high-single-digit price increase, a healthy response from the consumer is coming from merchandising initiatives, and perhaps you could discuss those for us?

    道格,你剛才也提到了這一點,你認為消費者對個位數高位價格上漲的正面反應,是否部分源自於行銷策略?或許你可以和我們談談這些策略?

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I do. As I talked about, we're seeing our better and best categories perform better as a part of the total mix than they have in the past. And much of that is also being fueled by new consumers coming into the store. So we're gaining market share back that has been lost previously, and that is coming through these higher AUR products.

    是的,我願意。正如我剛才所說,我們發現,我們較好和最好的類別在整體組合中的表現比過去更好。而這很大程度也是由於新顧客不斷光顧商店所推動的。因此,我們正在重新奪回先前失去的市場份額,而這主要得益於這些高 AUR 產品。

  • As Richard talked about, one of the investments we have made is putting make back in our product. That means our design intent is stronger than it has been in many years, and we believe that trend will continue well into 2026 and beyond.

    正如理查德所說,我們所做的投資之一就是將資金投入我們的產品。這意味著我們的設計意圖比多年來都要強烈,我們相信這一趨勢將持續到 2026 年及以後。

  • Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

  • Okay. And you're not contemplating any slowdown in the moderate to lower consumer target market that you address? I'm not suggesting you should. I just wondered how you thought about that.

    好的。你們沒有考慮到面向中低端消費群體的目標市場會出現任何成長放緩的情況嗎?我並不是建議你這麼做。我只是想知道你對此有何看法。

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We're not -- we're definitely cognizant of the macro and what's happening in the world. Inflation is real. As Richard mentioned, there are forces that are beyond our control. I can answer for what is within our control, and that's what I just told you.

    我們並非如此——我們當然清楚宏觀情況以及世界正在發生的事情。通貨膨脹是真實存在的。正如理查所說,有些力量是我們無法控制的。我只能回答我們所能回答的事情,而這正是我剛才告訴你的。

  • Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you and good luck with everything.

    好的。謝謝,祝你一切順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And I would now like to turn the call back to Doug for closing remarks.

    現在我想把電話轉回給道格,請他作總結發言。

  • Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. As you can tell, we are making progress against our core initiatives. We are seeing reasons to believe in our business. There remains a tremendous amount of work for us to do, and we look forward to sharing more of that as we move forward. Thank you for being with us today.

    是的。謝謝各位今天蒞臨。正如你所看到的,我們在核心專案方面取得了進展。我們看到了相信我們公司前景的理由。我們還有大量工作要做,期待在未來的工作中與大家分享更多成果。感謝您今天蒞臨現場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。