使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Welcome to Carter's second quarter fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. On the call are Doug Palladini, Chief Executive Officer and President; Richard Westenberger, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer; Kendra Krugman, Chief Product Officer; and Sean McHugh, Treasurer. Please note that today's call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. McHugh.
歡迎參加卡特 2025 財年第二季財報電話會議。參加電話會議的有執行長兼總裁 Doug Palladini、財務長兼營運長 Richard Westenberger、產品長 Kendra Krugman 和財務長 Sean McHugh。請注意,今天的通話正在錄音。現在我將把電話轉給麥克休先生。
Sean McHugh - Vice President and Treasurer
Sean McHugh - Vice President and Treasurer
Thank you and good morning everyone. We issued our second quarter 2025 earnings release earlier today. The release and presentation materials for today's call are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.carters.com. Note that statements on today's call about items such as the company's expectations and plans are forward-looking statements.
謝謝大家,早安。我們今天稍早發布了 2025 年第二季財報。今日電話會議的新聞稿和簡報資料可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.carters.com 上取得。請注意,今日電話會議中關於公司預期和計劃等內容的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。
For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to vary from those contained in the forward-looking statements, please see our most recent SEC filings and the earnings release and presentation materials posted on our website. In these materials, you will also find reconciliations of various non-GAAP financial measurements referenced during this call.
有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果不同的因素的討論,請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及我們網站上發布的收益報告和演示材料。在這些資料中,您還將找到本次電話會議中引用的各種非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。
After today's prepared remarks, we will take questions as time allows. I will now turn the call over to Doug.
在今天的準備好的發言之後,我們將根據時間回答問題。現在我將把電話轉給 Doug。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Sean. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. Just over 100 days ago, I began my journey as Carter's CEO and President. It's both an honor and privilege to lead this company and its iconic brands, and I'm more energized and inspired than ever about our potential.
謝謝你,肖恩。早安,感謝您今天加入我們。就在 100 多天前,我開始了擔任卡特執行長兼總裁的旅程。能夠領導這家公司及其標誌性品牌是我的榮幸,我對我們的潛力比以往任何時候都更有活力和靈感。
In the short time I've been here, I've visited as many Carter's stores, key accounts, distribution centers, regional offices and factories as possible, to hear directly from our teams where our greatest opportunities lie, and how best to get after them.
在我來到這裡的短暫時間裡,我盡可能地參觀了卡特的商店、大客戶、配送中心、地區辦事處和工廠,直接從我們的團隊那裡了解我們最大的機會在哪裡,以及如何最好地抓住這些機會。
I have also listened to feedback from many new existing and laps consumers. And based on my learnings, I've been able to develop a clear picture of what success will look like as we move forward, returning all Carter's brands to growth that is long term, sustainable, and profitable. Carter's brands are truly iconic, and our legacy is a source of trust and strength. Our teams possess talent, acumen, and drive, all necessary to unlock the company's next tranche of success.
我也聽取了許多新舊消費者的回饋。根據我的學習成果,我能夠清楚地描繪出未來成功的景象,讓 Carter 的所有品牌恢復長期、可持續和盈利的成長。Carter 的品牌確實具有標誌性,我們的傳統是信任和力量的來源。我們的團隊擁有才能、敏銳的洞察力和動力,這些都是公司下一批成功所必需的。
And our market leadership affords Carter's unparalleled competitive advantage. I'm going to share some details around the roadmap to future success shortly, but first, Richard is going to discuss our 2025 second quarter and first half results, which I believe offer proof that we have stabilized our business and put in a position to grow again. Richard?
我們的市場領導地位為卡特帶來了無與倫比的競爭優勢。我很快就會分享一些有關未來成功路線圖的細節,但首先,理查德將討論我們 2025 年第二季度和上半年的業績,我相信這證明我們已經穩定了業務並再次處於增長的位置。理查德?
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Doug. Good morning, everyone. With the first half of the year now behind us. It's clear we're navigating an unsettled world and marketplace. As the year has unfolded, tariffs have emerged to present significant uncertainty and challenges to planning our business. We're obviously not unique in this; higher tariffs are an issue across the industry.
謝謝你,道格。大家早安。今年上半年已經過去。顯然,我們正在一個不穩定的世界和市場中前進。隨著時間的推移,關稅問題為我們的業務規劃帶來了巨大的不確定性和挑戰。顯然,我們並不是唯一遇到這種情況的人;更高的關稅是整個產業面臨的問題。
The incremental baseline tariffs which have been implemented were not especially meaningful to our results in the second quarter, but they're expected to have a much more significant impact on our business going forward, not to mention any additional reciprocal tariffs which might be additive to what's already been imposed.
已經實施的增量基準關稅對我們第二季的業績並沒有特別大的影響,但預計會對我們未來的業務產生更為重大的影響,更不用說可能在已經實施的關稅基礎上附加的任何額外互惠關稅了。
I've been pleased though with how our team is actively responding to these new challenges. Over the years, there's been no shortage of unexpected events that we've had to respond to. Whether it was the sudden emergence of record high cotton prices, record inflation, or the market exit of significant wholesale customers, Carter's has staying power, and I'm confident we'll work through whatever the current environment throws our way.
我很高興看到我們的團隊積極應對這些新挑戰。多年來,我們必須面對的意外事件層出不窮。無論是棉花價格突然創下新高、通貨膨脹率創下新高,還是重要批發客戶退出市場,Carter's 都具有持久力,我相信無論當前環境為我們帶來什麼,我們都能克服。
My comments on our second quarter and first half performance will track to the presentation materials which are posted to the investor relations portion of our website. So beginning on page 2 of our materials. On page 2 we have our GAAP basis P&L. Sales in the second quarter were $585 million. Our second quarter reported profitability included $8 million in charges, which I'll comment on in a moment. Our Q2 reported operating income was $4 million.
我對我們第二季和上半年業績的評論將參考發佈在我們網站投資者關係部分的簡報資料。從我們材料的第 2 頁開始。第 2 頁是我們的 GAAP 基礎損益表。第二季的銷售額為5.85億美元。我們第二季報告的利潤包括 800 萬美元的費用,我稍後會對此發表評論。我們報告的第二季營業收入為 400 萬美元。
Our first half GAAP P&L is on page 3. On first half sales of $1.2 billion; our reported operating income was $30 million. First half, reported profitability included $17 million in charges.
我們的上半年 GAAP 損益表在第 3 頁。上半年銷售額為 12 億美元;我們的報告營業收入為 3,000 萬美元。上半年報告的利潤包括 1700 萬美元的費用。
We detailed the second quarter and first half charges on page 4. We've treated these items as adjustments to our reported results. In the first half, we incurred approximately $10 million in costs, largely third party professional fees in support of improving our product and brand development processes. We'll talk further today about the benefits these efforts are yielding. Overall, we believe this work will improve our capabilities and our ability to more effectively compete and grow in our marketplace.
我們在第 4 頁詳細列出了第二季和上半年的費用。我們將這些項目視為對報告結果的調整。上半年,我們花費了大約 1000 萬美元的成本,主要是用於支援改善我們的產品和品牌開發流程的第三方專業費用。今天我們將進一步討論這些努力所帶來的好處。總體而言,我們相信這項工作將提高我們的能力以及我們在市場上更有效地競爭和發展的能力。
The first half also included $7 million related to our leadership transition earlier this year. We're expecting far less significant charges related to these matters in the second half of the year, $5 million or less, primarily as our use of third party external support winds down and our internal teams assume our go forward processes and work.
上半年還包括與今年早些時候領導層過渡有關的 700 萬美元。我們預計下半年與這些事項相關的重大費用會少得多,為 500 萬美元或更少,主要是因為我們對第三方外部支援的使用逐漸減少,而且我們的內部團隊將承擔我們未來的流程和工作。
As we disclosed on our February earnings release, we also expect a non-cash, pre-tax charge in the third quarter of up to $10 million related to the termination of the legacy OshKosh Bâgosh pension plan. This morning, I will speak to our results on an adjusted basis, which excludes these items.
正如我們在二月的收益報告中所披露的那樣,我們還預計第三季將產生高達 1000 萬美元的非現金稅前費用,這與終止遺留的 OshKosh B'gosh 退休金計劃有關。今天上午,我將根據調整後的結果來談談不包括這些項目的結果。
Some overall highlights of our adjusted second quarter performance are summarized on page 5. Our second quarter sales of $585 million represented growth of 4% over last year. This growth was driven by our US retail and international segments. US wholesale sales were comparable to last year in the quarter.
第 5 頁總結了我們調整後的第二季業績的一些整體亮點。我們第二季的銷售額為 5.85 億美元,比去年同期成長了 4%。這一增長是由我們的美國零售和國際部門推動的。本季美國批發銷售額與去年同期相當。
Our profitability, both adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share, were down considerably versus a year ago. We had planned profitability to be down largely due to the year over year investment in pricing and retail and higher spending in some specific areas. Our objective though is obviously to grow profitability. We have much higher ambitions for our business than our second quarter profitability reflects.
我們的獲利能力(包括調整後的營業收入和調整後的每股收益)與一年前相比大幅下降。我們原本計劃獲利能力會下降,主要是因為定價和零售方面的投資年增,以及某些特定領域的支出增加。但我們的目標顯然是提高獲利能力。我們對業務的目標比第二季獲利能力所反映的要高得多。
Second quarter is historically our smallest quarter of the year. In 2024, second quarter represented about 20% of our full year sales and approximately 14% of full year adjusted operating income.
從歷史上看,第二季是我們一年中規模最小的一個季度。2024 年,第二季約占我們全年銷售額的 20%,約佔全年調整後營業收入的 14%。
Our adjusted P&L for the second quarter is on page 6. On our sales of $585 million gross margin in the second quarter was 48.1%, a decrease of 200 basis points from last year. The largest driver of the decline in gross margin was our investment in pricing in US retail. Recall we had planned approximately $20 million in incremental pricing for the first half. Given improved traffic and good sell-throughs, we ended up spending a bit less than this. Pricing in US retail was down about 3% in the second quarter.
我們第二季的調整後損益表在第 6 頁。我們第二季的銷售額為 5.85 億美元,毛利率為 48.1%,比去年同期下降了 200 個基點。毛利率下降的最大驅動因素是我們對美國零售定價的投資。回想一下,我們計劃上半年增加約 2,000 萬美元的定價。由於客流量增加和銷售量增加,我們最終的支出略低於這個數字。第二季美國零售價格下跌約 3%。
As we told you previously, these pricing investments were concentrated in key value item basket starters and in our key market share promotional events to be more competitively priced in the market. At this point we don't believe further investment in lowering AURs is needed. In the second half weâll anniversary the significant investments we made in pricing and marketing last year.
正如我們之前所說,這些定價投資集中在關鍵價值產品籃啟動器和我們的關鍵市場份額促銷活動中,以便在市場上更具競爭力的價格。目前,我們認為不需要進一步投資來降低 AUR。下半年,我們將慶祝去年在定價和行銷方面所做的重大投資。
AURs are planned up in the low single digits in our retail business in the second half, versus down about 4% in the first half. In recent weeks we've also seen some indications of competitors beginning to raise prices. Gross margin in the second quarter was also pressured by a few other factors, including a higher mix of excess inventory sales to the off-price channel in the wholesale segment, higher inbound freight rates, and the net impact of foreign currency.
我們計劃下半年零售業務的 AUR 將成長個位數,而上半年則下降了約 4%。最近幾週,我們也看到一些競爭對手開始提高價格的跡象。第二季的毛利率也受到其他一些因素的壓力,包括批發部門向折扣通路銷售的過剩庫存比例較高、入境運費上漲以及外匯的淨影響。
The impact of higher baseline tariffs on gross margin in the second quarter was approximately $2 million. As I've said, we expect these incremental tariffs to be more meaningful going forward. Royalty income was about $1 million lower than last year in part due to tariff-related order cancellations of licensed products across our channels.
基準關稅上調對第二季毛利率的影響約為 200 萬美元。正如我所說,我們預計這些增量關稅未來將更有意義。特許權使用費收入比去年減少了約 100 萬美元,部分原因是我們通路中授權產品的關稅相關訂單被取消。
Adjusted SG&A in the second quarter increased to $26 million to $273 million an increase of about 10%. The largest driver here was higher storage related expenses. These include higher volume related costs and having nearly 40 more stores across North America than last year. Store maintenance expenses were also higher than last year as we caught up on some deferred projects across the fleet.
第二季調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用增至 2,600 萬美元至 2.73 億美元,增幅約 10%。這裡最大的驅動因素是更高的儲存相關費用。其中包括與銷售相關的成本增加,以及在北美的門市數量比去年增加了近 40 家。由於我們完成了車隊中一些延期的項目,商店維護費用也高於去年。
As we told you on our last couple of calls, we expect SG&A to be higher this year as we're planning for more normalized levels of variable performance-based compensation compared to last year. This represented about $8 million of the increase in SG&A in the quarter.
正如我們在前幾次電話會議中所說的那樣,我們預計今年的銷售、一般和行政費用將會更高,因為我們計劃將基於績效的浮動薪酬水平比去年更加規範化。這意味著本季銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 增加了約 800 萬美元。
Our first half adjusted spending was up about 4%. For the second half, we're targeting an increase in the mid-single digit range. Our adjusted operating income in the second quarter was $12 million representing an adjusted operating margin of 2%. Below the line, interest and other costs were about $2 million compared to $5 million last year. The improvement here relates to higher interest income and an FX gain driven by the weakening of the US dollar since the end of the first quarter.
我們上半年的調整後支出成長了約4%。對於下半年,我們的目標是實現中等個位數的成長。我們第二季的調整後營業收入為 1,200 萬美元,調整後營業利益率為 2%。低於這一水平的利息和其他成本約為 200 萬美元,而去年為 500 萬美元。這裡的改善與更高的利息收入和自第一季末以來美元走弱所推動的外匯收益有關。
Our effective tax rate in the quarter was unusually high at approximately 74%. This high rate was due to stock option expirations in the quarter and the implementation of a global minimum tax rate in Hong Kong during the quarter. Given the noise and the quarterly rate, it's more meaningful to consider our full year forecasted effective tax rate, which we've estimated to be about 23% compared to about 19.5% in 2024. With all of that on the bottom line, adjusted earnings per share were $0.17 in the quarter compared to $0.76 last year.
本季我們的有效稅率異常高,約 74%。這一高稅率是由於本季股票選擇權到期以及香港在本季實施全球最低稅率所致。考慮到噪音和季度稅率,考慮我們全年預測的有效稅率更有意義,我們估計全年有效稅率約為 23%,而 2024 年約為 19.5%。考慮到所有這些因素,本季調整後的每股收益為 0.17 美元,而去年同期為 0.76 美元。
On page 7, we summarized our adjusted segment performance in the second quarter. As mentioned, our US retail and international businesses drove the revenue growth in the quarter. US retail sales grew $9 million and international sales grew by $11 million. Wholesale sales were comparable to a year ago. On profitability, our consolidated adjusted operating income declined to $28 million with lower profitability in US retail and wholesale, accounting for most of that.
在第 7 頁,我們總結了第二季調整後的分部表現。如上所述,我們的美國零售和國際業務推動了本季的營收成長。美國零售額成長了 900 萬美元,國際銷售額成長了 1,100 萬美元。批發銷售額與一年前相當。在獲利能力方面,我們的綜合調整後營業收入下降至 2,800 萬美元,其中大部分原因是美國零售和批發業務的獲利能力下降。
I'll provide a little more color by business beginning with US retail on page 8. Demand in US retail in the second quarter was good, and we achieved a plus 2% total retail comp. The quarter started out strong with the buildup to the later Easter holiday this year in April. There may have been also some measure of a stock-upphenomenon in April as consumers were reading the headlines about potential reciprocal tariffs and may have pulled forward some of their purchasing to get ahead of higher prices in the future.
我將在第 8 頁從美國零售業開始,按業務提供更多詳細資訊。第二季美國零售需求良好,我們的零售總額較去年同期成長 2%。由於今年 4 月復活節假期臨近,本季開局表現強勁。四月可能也出現了一定程度的囤貨現象,因為消費者正在閱讀有關潛在互惠關稅的新聞,並且可能提前購買部分商品,以應對未來價格上漲。
More of our pricing investment in the quarter was also concentrated in April. Business slowed a bit in May and around the Memorial Day holiday in particular but we had several very good weeks of selling in June to ï¬nish the quarter. In terms of product, Baby, the largest part of our apparel business, continues to perform very well with double-digit sales growth in the second quarter which builds on growth weâve posted in Baby over the past several quarters.
本季我們的定價投資也更集中在四月。五月份,尤其是陣亡將士紀念日假期前後,業務略有放緩,但六月我們有幾個星期的銷售情況非常好,結束了本季度。就產品而言,嬰兒用品是我們服裝業務中最大的組成部分,該業務繼續表現良好,第二季度銷售額實現兩位數增長,這得益於過去幾個季度嬰兒用品業務的增長。
Continuing to win in Baby is a high priority so weâre pleased to see consumersâ response to the changes and improvements weâve made to our assortment here. Our latest market share information indicates we've maintained our share in baby and grown share in the toddler and younger kids segments.
繼續在嬰兒產品領域取勝是我們工作的重中之重,因此我們很高興看到消費者對我們在此產品系列上所做的改變和改進的反應。我們最新的市場份額資訊表明,我們在幼兒和幼兒市場的嬰兒和成人市場份額保持了穩定。
We've also seen an improvement in the trend of new customer acquisition and retention, building on the progress we began to see in the second half of last year. As expected, second quarter, retail profitability was lower than last year. We've listed the primary drivers here, including the investment in lower pricing and expense de leverage.
我們也看到新客戶獲取和保留趨勢有所改善,這是基於去年下半年開始看到的進展。正如預期的那樣,第二季度零售獲利能力低於去年同期。我們在此列出了主要驅動因素,包括對降低定價和降低槓桿費用的投資。
Our teams are focused on executing a good second half supported by several new products and marketing strategies and an overall planned improved inventory position versus a year ago. Third quarter sales are off to a good start. July month to date comp sales in the US are running up about 2%, with average AURs also higher than last year. We're also encouraged by back to school selling, which is off to a good and earlier start than last year.
我們的團隊致力於在下半年取得良好的業績,這將透過幾款新產品和行銷策略以及與去年同期相比整體計畫改善的庫存狀況來支持。第三季銷售開局良好。7 月迄今為止,美國同店銷售額成長了約 2%,平均 AUR 也高於去年。我們也對返校銷售感到鼓舞,今年的開局比去年更好、更早。
We've summarized our US wholesale and international segment performance for second quarter on page 9. In wholesale sales were comparable to last year, as I've noted. There's always a number of moving pieces in wholesale and second quarter was no exception.
我們在第 9 頁總結了第二季美國批發和國際部門的表現。正如我所指出的,批發銷售額與去年相當。批發業務中總是存在一些變動,第二季也不例外。
Year over year we had higher sales in the off price channel as we were able to opportunistically move some excess inventory. I'd characterize this growth as more or less timing with full year clearance of excess inventory through the off price channel forecasted to remain very low by historical standards and planned down year over year in the second half.
由於我們能夠抓住機會轉移一些過剩庫存,因此折扣管道的銷售額比去年有所增長。我認為這種增長或多或少與全年透過折扣管道清理過剩庫存的時間相吻合,預計全年庫存清理量將按照歷史標準保持在非常低的水平,並且計劃在下半年同比下降。
We had year over year growth with two of our three exclusive brand customers in the quarter, and we've seen some good momentum for new Skip Hop products within the wholesale channel. On profitability, wholesale had a 14% adjusted operating margin. The decline versus last year reflects lower pricing, changes in customer mix, including the higher clearance sales and expense deleverage.
本季度,我們三個獨家品牌客戶中的兩個都實現了同比增長,並且我們看到批發管道內 Skip Hop 新產品的良好發展勢頭。在獲利能力方面,批發業務的調整後營業利益率為 14%。與去年相比的下降反映了價格下降、客戶結構變化(包括清倉銷售增加以及費用去槓桿)。
International was a standout area in the business in the corridor with all components of this segment posting sales growth over last year. The largest component of our operations outside the United States is our Canadian business which had terrific performance with a plus 8% comp. Mexico has also continued its momentum with consumers and its market, posting a plus 19% comp. In our international wholesale business, sales also grew in the quarter driven by higher demand from our partner in Brazil.
國際業務是該走廊業務中的一個突出領域,該領域所有組成部分的銷售額都比去年有所增長。我們在美國以外業務的最大組成部分是加拿大業務,該業務表現優異,較去年同期成長 8%。墨西哥消費者和市場也持續保持強勁勢頭,較去年同期成長 19%。在我們的國際批發業務中,由於巴西合作夥伴的需求增加,本季銷售額也有所成長。
International's operating margin was approximately 4%. The stronger US dollar compared to a year ago continues to weigh on the profitability of our international businesses. On the next several pages, we've summarized our first half performance in total and by business segment, and this information is included for your reference.
國際的營業利益率約為4%。與去年同期相比,美元走強持續影響我們國際業務的獲利能力。在接下來的幾頁中,我們總結了我們上半年的整體業績和各業務部門的業績,這些資訊供您參考。
We've summarized our balance sheet and cash flow performance on page 13. Our balance sheet remains in very good shape. We ended the second quarter with good liquidity, substantial cash on hand, essentially also full availability under our credit facility. And our forecasts project good continued liquidity going forward. Inventory was up 3% year over year at the end of the second quarter. About $17 million of our quarter end inventory balance represented higher costs due to tariffs, excluding the cost impact of tariffs inventory was comparable to a year ago, and inventory units at the end of the quarter were down 1% versus last year.
我們在第 13 頁總結了我們的資產負債表和現金流量表現。我們的資產負債表仍然保持良好狀態。我們在第二季結束時擁有良好的流動性、大量現金,我們的信貸安排基本上可以完全使用。我們的預測是未來流動性將繼續保持良好。第二季末庫存年增3%。我們季度末庫存餘額中約有 1700 萬美元代表關稅導致的成本增加,不包括關稅的成本影響,庫存與一年前相當,季度末的庫存單位與去年相比下降了 1%。
The quality of our inventory heading into the second half is very good. We have less excess inventory than a year ago, and we feel good about the inventory investments we've made to drive the business in the second half with more newness and ongoing improvements to our assortments across the baby toddler and kid categories. Also, as summarized here, we've had a net use of cash year to date which tracks to our lower earnings and higher inventory balance, including the cost of higher tariffs.
我們下半年的庫存品質非常好。與一年前相比,我們的多餘庫存有所減少,我們對下半年推動業務發展的庫存投資感到滿意,我們將在嬰幼兒和兒童類別中推出更多新品並持續改進產品組合。此外,正如這裡所總結的,今年迄今為止,我們的現金淨使用量與我們的收益較低和庫存餘額較高(包括較高關稅的成本)有關。
We typically generate most of our cash as a business in the second half of the year, and our forecast reflects the same expectation for this year. We're expecting positive operating and free cash flow for the full year.
我們通常在下半年產生大部分業務現金,我們的預測也反映了今年相同的預期。我們預計全年的經營和自由現金流將為正值。
Turning to a couple of initiative updates on page 15, as we've mentioned, we've had a tremendous amount of work underway in the past number of months across several important areas. First, we've been comprehensively assessing and redesigning our end to end product development process from initial design concept all the way through delivery of the finished product. We have a complicated product assortment with multiple categories, brands, and channels to consider.
翻到第 15 頁上的幾個倡議更新,正如我們所提到的,過去幾個月我們在幾個重要領域開展了大量工作。首先,我們一直在全面評估和重新設計我們的端到端產品開發流程,從最初的設計概念一直到成品交付。我們的產品組合很複雜,需要考慮多個類別、品牌和通路。
Our assessment indicated we have an opportunity to shorten our product development lead times and improve this aspect of how we go to market. We've also identified an opportunity to reduce the number of changes we make to the assortment during the process and to reduce overdevelopment.
我們的評估表明,我們有機會縮短產品開發週期並改善我們進入市場的這一方面。我們還發現了一個機會,可以減少我們在流程中對產品分類所做的更改次數,並減少過度開發。
This has been a comprehensive project involving a large portion of our organization with very active participation across our design, merchandizing, supply chain, wholesale, and retail teams. We've already begun to see benefits from this work and have realized a meaningful reduction in our product development timeline.
這是一個綜合性項目,涉及我們組織的大部分人員,包括設計、銷售、供應鏈、批發和零售團隊的積極參與。我們已經開始看到這項工作帶來的好處,並且實現了產品開發時間的顯著縮短。
We've had good partnership from our vendors in Asia as part of this initiative as well. The end objective of this work is for us to become faster, nimbler, better able to react to consumer preferences, and continue to introduce greater and more frequent newness in our assortments. In recent years this has been a good spark to consumer spend, purchase frequency, and consumer retention.
作為這項措施的一部分,我們也與亞洲的供應商建立了良好的合作關係。這項工作的最終目標是讓我們變得更快、更靈活、能夠更好地對消費者偏好做出反應,並繼續在我們的產品系列中推出更多、更頻繁的新品。近年來,這對消費者支出、購買頻率和消費者留任率產生了良好的促進作用。
Additionally, we've completed a tremendous amount of work in assessing our retail store portfolio. As Doug will describe more fully, we've employed some meaningful new analytics to our store portfolio. This analysis has identified opportunities to close some stores and will also strengthen the way we evaluate future store sites going forward.
此外,我們在評估零售店組合方面完成了大量工作。正如道格將更詳細地描述的,我們對我們的商店組合採用了一些有意義的新分析方法。這項分析確定了關閉一些商店的機會,也將加強我們評估未來商店選址的方式。
On the next page we've reprised a page from our last earnings call. Tariffs continue to obviously be a topic of discussion across the industry. The frequently changing outlook for potentially significant additional tariffs has presented a tremendous challenge in planning our business. We have a very well diversified sourcing footprint. We've meaningfully reduced our exposure to China manufacturing over the last number of years. And now as summarized here, our largest countries of origin are Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and India.
在下一頁中,我們重複了上次收益電話會議中的一頁。關稅顯然繼續成為整個產業討論的話題。潛在的大量附加關稅前景不斷變化,這對我們的業務規劃提出了巨大的挑戰。我們的採購足跡非常多元化。過去幾年來,我們大幅減少了對中國製造業的投資。現在總結一下,我們最大的原籍國是越南、柬埔寨、孟加拉和印度。
Unfortunately, these countries are in scope for additional tariffs as the administration has announced. We've assessed the higher incremental tariffs which have already been implemented, an additional 10% duty for all countries and higher incremental duties for products from China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Relative to a few months ago, we're preparing for a world with higher and more permanent tariffs above the over $100 million in duties which we have paid historically.
不幸的是,正如美國政府所宣布的,這些國家將被徵收額外關稅。我們評估了已經實施的更高增量關稅,對所有國家徵收額外 10% 的關稅,並對來自中國、越南和印尼的產品徵收更高的增量關稅。與幾個月前相比,我們正準備迎接一個關稅更高、更持久的世界,這些關稅將超過我們歷史上支付的 1 億美元關稅。
Our estimate of the additional baseline tariffs is that it would represent a gross additional tariff amount between $125 million and $150 million on an annualized basis. If this is our new reality, and again this is not an issue unique to Carter's, it's our intention to be aggressive in our response as we would for any other meaningful increase to our cost structure.
我們對額外基準關稅的估計是,以年率計算,這將意味著總計額外關稅金額在 1.25 億美元至 1.5 億美元之間。如果這是我們面臨的新現實,而且這也不是 Carter 獨有的問題,那麼我們打算積極應對,就像我們應對成本結構的任何其他有意義的增加一樣。
Our intended actions are summarized here on page 16. We're in active discussions with our vendor and wholesale partners to share any additional cost of these tariffs, depending upon what tariff structures are eventually inactive, we'll continue to be dynamic in moving production to more advantageous geography, and we'll continue to look at our product assortments.
我們的預期行動總結在第 16 頁。我們正在與我們的供應商和批發合作夥伴積極討論分擔這些關稅的任何額外成本,這取決於最終無效的關稅結構,我們將繼續積極地將生產轉移到更有利的地理位置,我們將繼續關注我們的產品分類。
Given the magnitude of the challenge, we also intend to raise our prices. In the past, when we've needed to raise prices because of product cost increases, we've done so successfully. We will remain focused on the extraordinary quality and value that our brands are known for, but we are also committed to managing a higher operating margin business going forward as well.
鑑於挑戰的嚴峻性,我們也打算提高價格。過去,當我們因為產品成本增加而需要提高價格時,我們都成功地做到了這一點。我們將繼續專注於品牌所聞名的卓越品質和價值,但我們也致力於管理未來更高營業利潤率的業務。
As this morning's press release indicated, we've not reinstated guidance given the overall uncertainty around tariffs and their potential impact on the business. I am encouraged by a number of things we're seeing in the business right now, particularly in US retail. Consumers are responding well to our product assortments and marketing strategies, and wholesale channel demand overall has held up well.
正如今天早上的新聞稿所指出的,鑑於關稅的整體不確定性及其對業務的潛在影響,我們尚未恢復指導。我對目前商業領域,尤其是美國零售業中看到的許多事情感到鼓舞。消費者對我們的產品組合和行銷策略反應良好,批發通路需求整體保持良好。
We have a number of plans and initiatives intended to drive a good second half. Our product initiatives are focused on leaning into our best category of product, including Little Planet, PurelySoft, and new higher style collections.
我們制定了一系列計劃和舉措,旨在推動下半年業績良好。我們的產品計劃專注於我們最好的產品類別,包括 Little Planet、PurelySoft 和新的更高級風格系列。
As mentioned, we've also invested in an overall improved inventory position relative to the first half. Average in-store inventory in US retail was down low double digits in the first half, and is planned to be comparable in the second half with increases planned during the critical holiday selling season in the fourth quarter.
如上所述,我們也對相對於上半年的整體改善庫存狀況進行了投資。美國零售業上半年店內平均庫存下降了兩位數,預計下半年庫存將與上半年持平,並在第四季關鍵假日銷售季節增加庫存。
Additionally, we have increased the depth and breadth of our top performing categories and our assortments will reflect more frequent injection of newness. Our marketing plans also reflect increased investment over last year's second half. We've been seeing very good returns on our marketing spend thus far this year.
此外,我們還增加了表現最佳的類別的深度和廣度,我們的產品組合將更頻繁地註入新事物。我們的行銷計劃也反映出比去年下半年增加的投資。今年到目前為止,我們的行銷支出獲得了非常好的回報。
We're expecting some near term pressure on gross margin from higher tariffs, but in 2026 and beyond, our planning assumption is that we'll be able to offset these costs. Our estimate of the net earnings impact in the second half of 2025 of the incremental baseline tariffs, which have been implemented, is approximately $35 million. Key risks that we're monitoring include the prospect of additional tariffs, consumer response to higher prices, and the overall level and trend in consumer sentiment.
我們預計,關稅上調將在短期內對毛利率造成一定壓力,但到 2026 年及以後,我們的規劃假設是,我們將能夠抵銷這些成本。我們估計,已實施的增量基準關稅對 2025 年下半年的淨收益影響約為 3,500 萬美元。我們正在監控的主要風險包括額外關稅的前景、消費者對價格上漲的反應以及消費者信心的整體水平和趨勢。
With these remarks, I'll turn it back to Doug to share some of his observations and thoughts on our path forward.
說完這些話,我會把話題轉回給 Doug,讓他分享他對我們前進道路的一些觀察和想法。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Richard. Our Q2 and H1 results show me that Carter's business is stabilizing as we control what we can. I also believe that we now have the necessary foundation in place to return Carter's to long-term sustainable and profitable growth.
謝謝你,理查。我們的第二季和上半年業績顯示,隨著我們盡力控制,Carter 的業務正在趨於穩定。我還相信,我們現在擁有必要的基礎,可以讓 Carter's 恢復長期可持續的獲利成長。
As mentioned at the beginning of todayâs call, Iâd like to spend some time talking about what Iâve learned during my first 100 days-plus in this role and where I intend to take Carterâs moving forward. Also, in todayâs presentation materials, we have provided links to a brand video and illustrative PowerPoint deck to bring this narrative to life.
正如在今天電話會議開始時提到的那樣,我想花一些時間談談我擔任這個職位的頭 100 餘天裡學到了什麼,以及我打算如何帶領卡特向前發展。此外,在今天的簡報材料中,我們提供了品牌視訊和說明性 PowerPoint 簡報的鏈接,以使這一敘述栩栩如生。
Everyone Iâve met since my April 3 start date has a story to share about Carterâs or OshKosh. Something they wore as a baby that their mom stored away as a keepsake. A dress or pair of overalls passed down through generations. Or a favorite outfit they have their kids wearing right now. Phones come out. Photos and memories are shared. The fondness and warmth are palpable.
自 4 月 3 日開始工作以來,我遇到的每個人都有關於 Carter's 或 OshKosh 的故事可以分享。他們嬰兒時期穿過的某件東西,被他們的媽媽保存起來當紀念品。代代相傳的洋裝或工裝褲。或者是他們的孩子現在穿的最喜歡的衣服。電話問世了。分享照片和回憶。愛和溫暖是顯而易見的。
Itâs exactly the powerful emotional response to our brands that any company leader would covet. And it reinforces the tremendous privilege Carterâs has as a part of peoplesâ lives during such a meaningful time, when families are having babies and raising young children.
這正是任何公司領導者都渴望得到的對我們品牌的強烈情感反應。它強調了卡特在這樣一個有意義的時期作為人們生活的一部分所享有的巨大特權,在這個時期,家庭正在生兒育女。
Our return to growth will be predicated upon this place of honor, backed by 160 years of cumulative trust, and fueled by a commitment to serve a new generation of young families with brands and products that emphasize high quality, modern design and exceptional value. I think our newly crafted company purpose â to embrace the wonder of childhood and uplift those shaping the future â captures this position perfectly.
我們的恢復成長將以這項榮譽為基礎,以 160 年的累積信任為後盾,並致力於為新一代年輕家庭提供強調高品質、現代設計和卓越價值的品牌和產品。我認為我們新制定的公司宗旨——擁抱童年的奇蹟並提升那些塑造未來的人——完美地體現了這一立場。
Iâm also inspired by the talent and potential of many leaders and teams across the Carterâs organization, and we will certainly continue to attract and retain the absolute best talent possible as we optimize our organizational model.
卡特組織的許多領導者和團隊的才華和潛力也激勵著我,隨著我們優化組織模式,我們必將繼續吸引和留住最優秀的人才。
To that end, several changes and additions to the Carterâs leadership team have added substantial experience and acumen where we require it most: Our retail leader, Allison Peterson, joined Carterâs with tremendous experience from Best Buy. Our new Head of Strategy, Emily Evert, joins us officially in August, moving over from Boston Consulting Group after leading our transformation roadmap. And Sarah Crockett recently joined Carterâs from Designer Shoe Warehouse as our Chief Marketing Officer to drive demand creation and consumer connectivity.
為此,Carter 領導團隊的幾項變動和補充為我們帶來了豐富的經驗和敏銳的洞察力:我們的零售主管 Allison Peterson 在加入 Carter 之前曾在百思買工作,擁有豐富的經驗。我們的新任策略主管 Emily Evert 於 8 月正式加入我們,她在領導我們的轉型路線圖後從波士頓顧問集團調任過來。莎拉·克羅克特 (Sarah Crockett) 最近從 Designer Shoe Warehouse 加入 Carter’s,擔任首席行銷官,負責推動需求創造和消費者聯繫。
In my nearly 40 years of building and nurturing brands, Iâve consistently seen that thoughtful, measured investment drives profitable growth, and thatâs exactly the path weâre back on at Carterâs. Iâve also learned that the strongest brands are those with a clear sense of identity and purpose, knowing exactly what they stand for and what they donât. And most importantly, I know that lasting consumer loyalty comes from balancing the transactional with the emotional, combining value with meaning. At Carterâs, we are returning to all these fundamentals.
在我近 40 年的品牌建立和培育過程中,我始終認為經過深思熟慮、經過衡量的投資能夠推動獲利成長,而這正是 Carter's 所走的道路。我還了解到,最強大的品牌是那些具有明確身份和目標的品牌,清楚知道自己代表什麼和不代表什麼。最重要的是,我知道持久的消費者忠誠度來自於交易與情感的平衡,價值與意義的結合。在 Carter's,我們正在回歸所有這些基本原則。
To better know, appreciate and thank our fans, Carterâs is taking several meaningful actions to more impactfully connect with our consumers. Weâve just completed the most significant consumer research study in Carterâs history, which now forms the basis for an always-on flow of direct insights and data, informing every decision we make.
為了更了解、欣賞和感謝我們的粉絲,Carter's 正在採取多項有意義的行動,以便與我們的消費者建立更有效的聯繫。我們剛完成了卡特歷史上最重要的消費者研究,該研究現在構成了直接洞察和資料流的基礎,為我們做出的每一個決策提供資訊。
Weâve successfully removed a full three months from our product development calendar, dramatically increasing our ability to read and react to consumer signals and upscaling agility. Each year, our newest fans represent 90% of all US births, building on Carterâs loyalty member base of more than 9 million known consumers. Through this dynamic platform, we are elevating personalization of product, content and offers for each shopper and presenting a seamless digital experience across apps, stores and websites.
我們成功地將產品開發時間縮短了整整三個月,大大提高了我們解讀和回應消費者訊號的能力,並提高了敏捷性。每年,我們的新粉絲占美國新生兒總數的 90%,卡特的忠誠會員基礎已超過 900 萬已知消費者。透過這個動態平台,我們正在提升每個購物者的產品、內容和優惠的個人化,並在應用程式、商店和網站上提供無縫的數位體驗。
The name atop our Atlanta headquarters is Carterâs. The name above almost every retail door we operate and on website homepages is Carterâs. Carterâs is our flagship brand; full stop. As such, our future success is inextricably tied to the Carterâs brand, and we are treating it with a commensurate level of care. To regain lost market share and reinforce Carterâs position as the number 1 baby apparel brand in all points of distribution and across all vital product categories, we have focused and re-doubled our efforts to deliver relevant and resonant apparel to todayâs new parents.
我們亞特蘭大總部的樓頂上的名字是 Carter's。我們經營的幾乎每個零售門市和網站主頁上的名字都是 Carter’s。Carter's 是我們的旗艦品牌;句號。因此,我們未來的成功與 Carter 品牌密不可分,我們將以相應的謹慎態度對待它。為了重新獲得失去的市場份額並鞏固卡特在所有分銷點和所有重要產品類別中作為第一個嬰兒服裝品牌的地位,我們集中精力並加倍努力,為當今的新父母提供相關且引起共鳴的服裝。
This prioritization is already showing signs of success: Across US stores and e-commerce, Carterâs Baby category sales continue to accelerate for the fourth straight quarter, with plus 5% total growth in Q1 and plus 10% in Q2 versus last year.
這種優先策略已經顯示出成功的跡象:在美國商店和電子商務中,Carter's Baby 類別的銷售額連續第四個季度加速增長,與去年相比,第一季總增長率為 5%,第二季度增長了 10%。
An emphasis on product newness is yielding more consumer acquisition, up 8% versus last year and these new consumers deliver higher lifetime value. Carterâs PurelySoft assortment has simply exploded in popularity and is a solid source of growth each season in our must-win Baby category; this product is truly the softest I have ever felt.
強調產品的新穎性可以吸引更多的消費者,比去年成長 8%,而這些新消費者帶來了更高的終身價值。Carter's PurelySoft 系列產品的人氣迅速飆升,成為我們必贏的嬰兒產品類別中每個季節的強勁增長源泉;這款產品確實是我摸過的最柔軟的產品。
In addition to selling at higher, non-promotional prices, PurelySoft consumers visit us more often and spend more per visit than average. Thereâs something very special about OshKosh Bâgosh that goes well beyond its 130 years of denim heritage. For many of us shopping regularly for new baby gifts, a pair of OshKosh overalls and a denim jacket are the perfect set and always adored by recipients. Due to its tremendous brand equity, we now have a clear line of sight to OshKosh becoming Carterâs most global and differentiated brand. Weâre updating the OshKosh business model to really get after this opportunity and look forward to sharing details in the coming months.
除了以更高的非促銷價格銷售外,PurelySoft 消費者造訪我們網站的頻率更高,而且每次造訪的花費也高於平均水平。OshKosh B'gosh 的獨特之處遠遠超出了其 130 年的牛仔歷史。對於我們許多定期購買新生兒禮物的人來說,一套 OshKosh 工作服和一件牛仔夾克是完美的組合,並且總是受到收禮者的喜愛。由於其巨大的品牌資產,我們現在可以清楚地看到 OshKosh 將成為 Carter 最全球化和差異化的品牌。我們正在更新 OshKosh 的商業模式,以真正抓住這個機會,並期待在未來幾個月分享細節。
We are also incubating three emerging brands that show tremendous promise, Skip Hop, Little Planet and Otter Avenue. Skip Hop, our hard line brand focused by parents for parents, continues to resonate with its powerful blend of thoughtful design and functional innovation. Q2 sales for Skip Hop were up 7% and H1 was up 4.5% to last year. Since its 2021 re-launch, Little Planet has become a baby, toddler and young childrenâs leader in sustainable apparel made with eco-friendly materials. Little Planetâs high-quality make and more sophisticated aesthetic command higher prices and give the brand much greater upmarket potential that we believe will generate solid growth and brand halo.
我們也正在孵化三個前景看好的新興品牌:Skip Hop、Little Planet 和 Otter Avenue。Skip Hop 是我們專注於父母服務的硬線品牌,其周到的設計與功能創新的強大結合繼續引起共鳴。Skip Hop 第二季的銷售額比去年同期成長了 7%,上半年的銷售額比去年同期成長了 4.5%。自 2021 年重新推出以來,Little Planet 已成為採用環保材料製成的可持續嬰兒、幼兒和兒童服裝的領導者。Little Planet 的高品質製造和更精緻的美學使其價格更高,並賦予品牌更大的高端市場潛力,我們相信這將帶來穩健的成長和品牌光環。
And just this week, Carterâs launched its next emerging brand, Otter Avenue, named for the Wisconsin street on which Osh Kosh Bâgosh was founded. This is our first-ever brand specifically for toddlers, crafted through insights around how kids begin to dress themselves, and we believe it will keep our infant and baby consumers engaged as their kids grow.
就在本週,Carter’s 推出了下一個新興品牌 Otter Avenue,該品牌以 Osh Kosh B’gosh 創立的威斯康辛州街道命名。這是我們第一個專門針對幼兒的品牌,透過對孩子如何開始自己穿衣服的洞察而精心打造,我們相信它將使我們的嬰兒消費者在孩子成長過程中保持參與。
As with Little Planet, Otter Avenue commands higher prices through premium design and make and we believe it will experience solid growth from its test phase this year into 2026 and beyond. Very early results are highly encouraging. These new brands are resonating.
與 Little Planet 一樣,Otter Avenue 憑藉優質的設計和製造獲得了更高的價格,我們相信它將從今年的測試階段到 2026 年及以後實現穩健增長。早期結果非常令人鼓舞。這些新品牌正在引起共鳴。
Little Planet, for example, has grown its consumer base by 50% this year, all new fans to Carterâs, with a lifetime value 1.5 times higher than our average consumer. In Q2, our best products with higher AURs outperformed our good and better buckets, with sales up and outpacing inventory investment. The âbestâ product category often features our most style-forward assortments and carries an exceptional value overall.
例如,Little Planet 今年的消費者群體成長了 50%,所有消費者都是 Carter's 的新粉絲,其終身價值比我們的平均消費者高出 1.5 倍。在第二季度,我們的最佳產品(AUR 較高)的表現優於我們的好產品和更好的產品,銷售額上升並超過了庫存投資。「最佳」產品類別通常包含我們最時尚的系列產品,並且整體上具有卓越的價值。
I have come to understand and appreciate that Carterâs products are not discretionary, but instead vital, necessary and cherished from birth through all the fast-growing and rapidly evolving early stages of life. Infants become babies, babies become toddlers, and toddlers become young kids with strikingly predictable regularity. Our business model and strategic framework reflect this inherent strength.
我逐漸理解並欣賞 Carter 的產品不是可有可無的,而是從出生到生命快速成長和快速發展的早期階段都至關重要、必需且值得珍惜的。嬰兒變成幼兒,幼兒變成學步兒童,學步兒變成小孩,這個過程有著驚人的可預測的規律。我們的商業模式和策略框架體現了這種內在優勢。
When your name is above the door, consumers come in with higher expectations, and rightfully so. As both a fan and student of retail, I know I do. Shoppers expect curated assortments led by newness, knowledgeable and engaged associates, a clear brand point of view, and total value thatâs easy to understand, and that is exactly what weâre striving to deliver across our more than 1,000 Carterâs stores in North America and beyond.
當您的名字出現在門上時,消費者就會帶著更高的期望進來,這是理所當然的。作為零售業的愛好者和學生,我知道我會的。購物者期望由新穎的、知識淵博且敬業的員工主導的精選商品、清晰的品牌觀點和易於理解的總體價值,而這正是我們努力在北美及其他地區的 1,000 多家 Carter's 商店中實現的。
At the same time, itâs important to remember that Carterâs reaches consumers with unmatched scale. Last year, we earned more than 250 million visits to our owned stores and digital platforms, not to mention Carterâs presence as a leading brand in nearly 20,000 points of wholesale distribution across North Americaâs most prominent retailers.
同時,重要的是要記住,Carter 以無與倫比的規模接觸消費者。去年,我們自有商店和數位平台的訪問量超過 2.5 億次,更不用說 Carter 作為領先品牌在北美最知名零售商的近 20,000 個批發分銷點的影響力。
Few brands have the opportunity or the responsibility to show up this consistently and meaningfully for families raising young children. To that end, each point of interaction must serve our consumer in a much more resonant way to drive brand loyalty and unlock lifetime value. One step we are taking is implementing a new fleet segmentation strategy, providing the right consumer experience at each point of owned distribution, from more upmarket style stores to value-driven outlets. Beginning to roll out in 2026, I expect these segmented Carterâs stores to be key growth drivers.
很少有品牌有機會或責任持續且有意義地向撫養幼兒的家庭展示這一點。為此,每個互動點都必須以更能引起共鳴的方式為我們的消費者服務,以推動品牌忠誠度並釋放終身價值。我們正在採取的一個措施是實施新的車隊細分策略,在自有分銷的每個點(從更高檔的商店到價值驅動的門市)提供正確的消費者體驗。從 2026 年開始,我預計這些細分的 Carter 商店將成為關鍵的成長動力。
We are already iterating on new stores as we open them, and their sales comps are out-performing the balance of the fleet by 350 basis points. In addition, we are seeing strong proof points in key retail metrics such as conversion, units per transaction and unit volume, each showing meaningful gains for five quarters running. In fact, year-over-year active consumers in owned stores have delivered growth for the first time since 2022 and our unit velocity has greatly increased, comping 6.3 % versus last year.
我們在開設新店時就已經在對其進行迭代,新店的銷售額比其他店鋪高出 350 個基點。此外,我們在轉換率、每筆交易的單位數和單位數量等關鍵零售指標中看到了強有力的證明,這些指標連續五個季度都顯示出有意義的成長。事實上,自有商店的活躍消費者數量自 2022 年以來首次實現同比增長,我們的單位週轉率也大幅提升,與去年相比增長了 6.3%。
We have also launched a new, proprietary algorithm to help us understand where stores should be opened, moved, or closed. The first outcome of this analysis is that we have identified approximately 100 Carterâs doors which we will close as leases expire. While we employ the same multi-faceted set of inputs to relocate or open new doors in high-traffic, impactful locations, our clear focus will continue to be increasing productivity where we have already invested capital in existing doors.
我們還推出了一種新的專有演算法來幫助我們了解應該在哪裡開設、搬遷或關閉商店。這項分析的第一個結果是,我們確定了大約 100 家 Carter 門市,我們將在租約到期時關閉這些門市。雖然我們採用相同的多方面投入來在人流量大、影響大的地點重新安置或開設新門,但我們的明確重點仍將是提高已在現有門上投入資金的生產力。
As we test and learn, we are iterating on Carterâs business model in real time, again to drive sustainable and profitable growth. Our key wholesale accounts remain a vital and substantial part of the CRI business model. Carterâs global, multi-channel approach will continue to afford us distinct competitive advantage across all points of distribution and among our competitive set.
在我們測試和學習的過程中,我們正在即時迭代卡特的商業模式,再次推動可持續和盈利的成長。我們的主要批發客戶仍然是 CRI 商業模式的重要組成部分。卡特的全球多通路方法將繼續為我們在所有分銷點和競爭對手中提供獨特的競爭優勢。
We have re-mapped our North America wholesale model, anchored by our Big Three: Walmart, Target and Amazon to strategically include more of our brands in more doors with more accounts, while continuing to emphasize our exclusive brands. Retaining and growing our number 1 baby and toddler brand status among all key accounts is expected to continue to drive sales growth through outsize reach and impact.
我們重新規劃了我們的北美批發模式,以我們的三大巨頭:沃爾瑪、塔吉特和亞馬遜為支柱,策略性地將我們的更多品牌納入更多門市,擁有更多帳戶,同時繼續強調我們的獨家品牌。在所有主要客戶中保持並提升我們的第一大嬰幼兒品牌地位,預計將透過巨大的影響力和覆蓋範圍繼續推動銷售成長。
Carterâs aggressive promotional cadence must be rebalanced to support more sustainable, profitable growth. Weâre already making progress, investing approximately 15% less in promotions than planned, particularly in must-win categories such as Baby.
卡特積極的促銷節奏必須重新平衡,以支持更永續、更有利可圖的成長。我們已經取得了進展,促銷方面的投資比計劃減少了約 15%,特別是在嬰兒等必贏類別中。
Given early success of new investments thus far, we intend to elevate demand creation resources and position much of it to generate revenue growth against two primary areas: store traffic and consumer loyalty. Every point of additional traffic across our current store fleet is worth approximately $10 million in revenue and $5 million in operating income, a good example of the return on investment I am looking for.
鑑於迄今為止新投資的早期成功,我們打算提升需求創造資源,並將其中大部分用於在兩個主要領域創造收入成長:商店流量和消費者忠誠度。我們目前門市客流量的每一個增加都意味著大約 1000 萬美元的收入和 500 萬美元的營業收入,這是我所尋求的投資回報的一個很好的例子。
We are also building on our base of more than 9 million active loyalty members. For each additional 500,000 members Carterâs adds, we would expect an incremental $70 million or so in sales. We are also learning how best to generate global scale in international markets where birth rates outpace that of the US, such as Brazil, where weâve built a high-performing partnership, operating 81 Carterâs stores and more than 200 shop-in-shops. The outcomes of what we experience here inform how we think about geographic expansion in the future.
我們也不斷擴大 900 多萬活躍忠誠會員基礎。Carter 每增加 50 萬名會員,我們預計銷售額將增加約 7,000 萬美元。我們也正在學習如何在出生率超過美國的國際市場上最好地實現全球規模,例如巴西,我們在巴西建立了高效的合作夥伴關係,經營著 81 家 Carter's 商店和 200 多家店中店。我們在這裡經歷的結果告訴我們如何思考未來的地理擴張。
As we focus on what really matters to drive sustainable, long-term growth, we expect to become much more efficient and effective in every choice we make, which we believe can yield substantial SG&A savings, some of which we expect to re-invest into our brands and capital expenditures that service our brands, where thoughtful investment will provide the greatest return on capital.
當我們專注於真正推動可持續的長期成長的事情時,我們期望在所做的每一個選擇中變得更加高效和有效,我們相信這可以帶來大量的銷售、一般和行政費用的節省,其中一部分我們期望重新投資到我們的品牌和服務我們品牌的資本支出中,深思熟慮的投資將提供最大的資本回報。
Early indicators show that our foundational work is translating into real business momentum, but weâre just getting started. Our plans will evolve as we read signals in the business and we will remain agile no matter the level of uncertainty. We will continue to be transparent, pointing to proof in our progress as well as what we learn from what isnât working.
早期指標表明,我們的基礎工作正在轉化為真正的業務動力,但我們才剛起步。我們的計劃將隨著我們讀取業務訊號而不斷發展,無論不確定性程度如何,我們都會保持敏捷。我們將繼續保持透明,指出我們所取得的進展以及我們從失敗中學到的教訓。
My confidence in our future prospects emanates from the trust placed in Carterâs by generations of families. We are the largest and most significant company focused exclusively on young childrenâs apparel and we must continue to honor that very special relationship at a very special time in peoplesâ lives. I look forward to sharing much more with you as we move forward, thank you.
我對我們未來前景的信心源自於幾代家族對卡特的信任。我們是規模最大、最重要的專注於幼兒服裝的公司,我們必須在人們生命中非常特殊的時刻繼續珍惜這種非常特殊的關係。我期待在我們前進的過程中與您分享更多,謝謝。
And with these remarks, we're ready to take your questions.
講完這些話,我們就可以回答你們的問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Jay Sole, UBS.
瑞銀的傑伊·索爾。
Jay Sole - Analyst
Jay Sole - Analyst
Great, thank you so much. Doug, thank you for all the comments today. I'd love to ask you, given everything that you talked about and everything you've learned in, your first 100 plus days, what kind of sales growth opportunity do you see going forward for the company? What kind of annual sales growth rate do you think you can deliver? What kind of EBIT margin do you think you can get the company to over, say, a three to five year period? And generally speaking, if you had an earnings goal, what kind of earnings do you think the company should be able to deliver? Thank you.
太好了,非常感謝。道格,感謝您今天的所有評論。我很想問您,考慮到您所談論的一切以及您在前 100 多天裡所學到的一切,您認為公司未來有什麼樣的銷售成長機會?您認為您能達到什麼樣的年銷售成長率?您認為在未來三到五年內,公司可以達到多少的息稅前利潤率?一般來說,如果您有一個獲利目標,您認為公司應該能夠實現什麼樣的獲利?謝謝。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Hey Jay, thank you for your questions. Yeah, I have a lot of earnings goals and sales goals, but we're not going to share specific numbers today. I can tell you -- I can just reinforce what I said, we have substantial and meaningful reasons to believe that we can return to growth. That growth can be profitable and sustained over time and that it's accretive, it's accretive for our brands, it benefits our consumers, that's what we're really focused on and, yeah, that's what we're driving toward right now.
嘿,傑伊,謝謝你的提問。是的,我有很多獲利目標和銷售目標,但我們今天不會分享具體的數字。我可以告訴你——我只能重申我所說的話,我們有充分且有意義的理由相信我們能夠恢復成長。這種成長可以帶來利潤,並隨著時間的推移而持續下去,而且它具有增值性,對我們的品牌有增值作用,它使我們的消費者受益,這才是我們真正關注的,是的,這也是我們現在努力的方向。
Jay Sole - Analyst
Jay Sole - Analyst
Got it. Understood. And maybe if I can ask one for Richard, just talking about tariffs, you gave the number, I think it was $125 million to $150 million gross. Can You just talk about how -- you gave some ideas about how you're going to offset the impact whether its change the price assortment, cost sharing with vendors. Can you dive in a little bit and maybe give us an idea of like, what the biggest potential offset would be? Is it price increases? Is it something else, and how much over time of that $125. It sounds like you can offset a lot of it, but like over what time frame and sort of what might be the impact to next year.
知道了。明白了。也許我可以問理查德一個問題,只談關稅,你給了一個數字,我認為總額是 1.25 億美元到 1.5 億美元。您能否談談如何—您給出了一些關於如何抵消影響的想法,無論是改變價格分類,還是與供應商分攤成本。您能否深入解釋一下,並讓我們知道最大的潛在抵銷額是多少?是漲價了嗎?這是別的東西嗎?隨著時間的推移,這 125 美元要花多少錢?聽起來你可以抵消很多影響,但是要考慮在什麼時間範圍內以及明年會產生什麼影響。
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Right, and this is our best kind of analysis to date on this, obviously that the landscape is anything but certain on this. It seems like every day there's a new announcement or different interpretations even among the countries who are negotiating this. So it's been tough even to try and run the scenarios that we've shared this morning.
是的,這是我們迄今為止對此做出的最佳分析,顯然,情況還不確定。似乎每天都會有新的聲明或不同的解釋,即使在談判的國家之間也是如此。因此,即使嘗試運行我們今天上午分享的場景也很困難。
I do think probably the most meaningful opportunity is price, just in terms of the magnitude of the dollars, just given the size of our business. That said, that's not the only tool that we intend to employ here. The other ones that were listed in the presentation are very important to us as well. We've had good partnership with our vendors. We are sharing some of the price, some of the tariff cost with our wholesale partners. We have raised our prices.
我確實認為,就美元數量而言,考慮到我們的業務規模,最有意義的機會可能是價格。話雖如此,這並不是我們打算在這裡採用的唯一工具。簡報中列出的其他內容對我們也非常重要。我們與供應商保持良好的合作關係。我們與批發合作夥伴分擔部分價格和部分關稅成本。我們已經提高了價格。
It's tougher to do near term obviously because we have goods that have been ticketed. We have goods that have been sold in and that's the reference to the impact -- the expected impact for the second half of 2025. It's just tougher for us to cover near term, but as I said, we're committed to growing the profitability of the company. We have a long heritage of being a high operating margin business. We have no interest in running a lower margin business, particularly due to tariffs.
顯然,短期內做起來會比較困難,因為我們有一些已經貼有標籤的貨物。我們已經售出了商品,這是對影響的參考——預計影響將在 2025 年下半年發生。短期內我們很難解決這個問題,但正如我所說,我們致力於提高公司的獲利能力。我們長期以來一直是一家高營業利潤率企業。我們對經營利潤率較低的業務不感興趣,尤其是考慮到關稅。
And if this is something that's going to be a permanent increase to our cost structure, we have to find a way to cover it, and that's why our ambition is for '26 and beyond that we would find a way to completely mitigate what we're estimating. The analysis gets a little circular because there's a lot of data that suggests that you lose some unit intensity when you raise prices, and therefore that affects the number of units that you're importing into the country that are subject to tariffs.
如果這會導致我們的成本結構永久性增加,我們必須找到一種方法來彌補它,這就是為什麼我們的目標是在 26 年及以後找到一種方法來完全減輕我們的估計。分析有點循環,因為有許多數據表明,當你提高價格時,你會損失一些單位強度,因此這會影響你進口到該國的受關稅影響的單位數量。
So we'll see where it all lands. But as I said, I'm pleased with how aggressive our teams have been in responding into this challenge, and it's the challenge of the moment and I think it's one for the industry as well. As the leader in young kids apparel, we expect to lead in this regard as well and we'll be as aggressive as we can with it over time.
因此我們將拭目以待。但正如我所說,我很高興看到我們的團隊如此積極地應對這項挑戰,這是當前的挑戰,我認為這也是整個產業面臨的挑戰。作為兒童服裝領域的領導者,我們希望在這方面也保持領先地位,並且隨著時間的推移,我們將盡可能積極地向前邁進。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
If I could just add one note, I really want to applaud the agility of our supply chain team. They've done incredible work diversifying our existing sourcing base. And we will continue to be agile, so as we get clarity on what's happening with the tariff situation, we can move among the countries of sourcing that we have. And I think, we have tremendous agility and it is a competitive advantage for us. So I would just add that as an important factor that's working in our favor, irrespective of the uncertainty.
如果我可以補充一點,我真的想讚揚我們的供應鏈團隊的敏捷性。他們為實現我們現有採購基礎的多樣化做出了卓越的貢獻。我們將繼續保持靈活,一旦我們清楚了解關稅情況,我們就可以在現有的採購國家之間轉移。我認為,我們擁有極大的彈性,這是我們的競爭優勢。因此,我想補充一點,無論存在何種不確定性,這都是對我們有利的重要因素。
Jay Sole - Analyst
Jay Sole - Analyst
Got it. Thank you so much.
知道了。太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
Paul Lejuez, Citi.
花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。
Paul Lejuez - Analyst
Paul Lejuez - Analyst
Hi, this is Kelly on for Paul. Thanks for taking your question. Doug, thanks for all the color. I was wondering if you could just, double click on your plans on the US retail business. I think you talked about closing some stores as leases to come up. I guess when we think about sort of the net stores, 800 and change in the US, would you expect that those store count to move lower? And just any color on, where you're seeing opportunity to close doors versus opening stores? And just more detail around your USDTC strategy. Thanks.
大家好,我是凱利,代替保羅。感謝您提出這個問題。道格,謝謝你帶來的所有色彩。我想知道您是否可以雙擊一下您對美國零售業務的計劃。我認為您談到了關閉一些商店作為即將到期的租約。我想,當我們考慮淨商店數量,美國的 800 家及變化時,您是否預計這些商店數量會減少?就顏色而言,您認為關店和開店的機會在哪裡?以及有關您的 USDTC 策略的更多細節。謝謝。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thank you, Kelly, for the question. The first thing I would tell you is that I really believe in this new multifaceted algorithm that we have that is proprietary to our company. It's a more analytical look at our fleet than we've ever had before, so we have more inputs, and I think we're making much more intelligent choices. That said, all options are on the table: closing more stores, moving stores, opening new stores, relocating, remodeling. We're going to look at every possible option available to us, and we're going to use all this insight to decide what's best moving forward.
是的,謝謝你,凱利,提出這個問題。我要告訴你的第一件事是,我真的相信我們公司專有的這種新的多面向演算法。與以往相比,我們對船隊的分析更加深入,因此我們擁有更多的投入,我認為我們做出了更明智的選擇。也就是說,所有選擇都在考慮範圍內:關閉更多商店、搬遷商店、開設新店、搬遷、改造。我們將研究所有可能的選擇,並利用所有這些見解來決定最佳的前進方向。
The other thing that we're really leaning into as I discussed is this fleet segmentation strategy. It's going to be very important for us as we want to deepen consumer connectivity and be more resonant with the product assortments in each point of distribution. To ensure that our outlet stores, our inline stores, our more upmarket stores reflect the consumer who's shopping in those spaces.
正如我所討論的,我們真正傾向於的另一件事是車隊細分策略。這對我們來說非常重要,因為我們希望加深消費者之間的聯繫,並讓每個分銷點的產品組合更加貼合消費者的口味。確保我們的直銷店、直銷店和更高檔的商店能夠反映在這些空間購物的消費者。
We believe there's a tremendous opportunity there, and you're already seeing us distort assortments in different stores to try new things to appeal to consumers with good results, by the way, as we've detailed today. So we'll continue to test and learn. And we'll continue to employ all the information available to us to make the most informed choices possible, and yeah, that's probably the most detail I can give right now.
我們相信那裡有巨大的機會,而且您已經看到我們在不同的商店中改變商品組合,嘗試新的東西來吸引消費者,並取得了良好的效果,順便說一句,正如我們今天所詳述的那樣。因此我們會繼續測試和學習。我們將繼續利用所有可用的資訊來做出最明智的選擇,是的,這可能是我現在可以提供的最詳細的資訊。
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Kelly, just briefly onto that, we are continuing to see good real estate opportunities. I think to Doug's point, we're increasing the analytical rigor around those new site selections, but our last two classes of new stores are the best performing, in the fleet at the moment, so we're encouraged by that. Of the 100 stores that Doug mentioned around closing, they represent probably around $75 million to $80 million of revenue.
凱利,簡單說一下,我們繼續看到良好的房地產機會。我認為正如 Doug 所說,我們正在加強對新店選址的分析嚴謹性,但目前我們最後兩類新店是所有門市中表現最好的,因此我們對此感到鼓舞。在道格提到的即將關閉的 100 家商店中,它們的收入可能約為 7,500 萬至 8,000 萬美元。
We actually think there's an OI gain that we get when you factor in the fact that we're going to transfer some of those sales from closed stores to the existing store base. It's really about improving the productivity of the existing store fleet. That's our focus, but that doesn't mean we don't have opportunities to continue to expand over time and open new stores.
實際上,我們認為,如果考慮到我們將把部分銷售額從已關閉的商店轉移到現有商店這一事實,我們就能獲得 OI 收益。這實際上是為了提高現有商店的生產力。這是我們的重點,但這並不意味著我們沒有機會隨著時間的推移繼續擴張並開設新店。
Paul Lejuez - Analyst
Paul Lejuez - Analyst
Any timeline for when you expect to close the 100 stores.
您預計何時關閉這 100 家商店?
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Over the next several years as the leases expire, we've gone through the analysis that there's really not a strong NPV case to be made for closing the stores before lease expiration. We have some situations where we have lease kickouts that would be kind of a handful of locations is our expectation. We're continuing to read it, but we think the best decision is to have these stores close at their lease expiration. So it's over the next several years that we that we'll hit the 100 stores.
在接下來的幾年裡,隨著租約到期,我們透過分析發現,在租約到期之前關閉商店確實沒有強有力的 NPV 理由。我們預計,在某些情況下,我們會在少數地點出現租約被取消的情況。我們正在繼續閱讀,但我們認為最好的決定是讓這些商店在租約到期時關閉。因此,在接下來的幾年裡,我們將達到 100 家商店的目標。
Paul Lejuez - Analyst
Paul Lejuez - Analyst
Got it. And just last question on pricing, so you made these pricing investments in USDTC. They, seem to help the comp. You also made some investments in pricing in the US wholesale channel. I think units were up 6%, sales were flat. I guess how do we square that with your plan price increases the back half of the year? Like, have you started to raise price and you're seeing a good consumer response, like how flexible are you on pricing here, and what feedback are you getting from your wholesale partners?
知道了。最後一個關於定價的問題,您在 USDTC 上進行了這些定價投資。他們似乎對公司有幫助。您也對美國批發通路的定價進行了一些投資。我認為銷量成長了 6%,但銷量持平。我想我們應該如何將此與今年下半年計畫價格的上漲相協調呢?例如,您是否已經開始提高價格,並且看到消費者的良好反應,例如您在這裡的定價有多靈活,以及您從批發合作夥伴那裡得到了什麼反饋?
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
So we have begun to raise prices, including in the wholesale channel. That was something that started late last month as we started to ship fall product. I'd say the dialogue with our wholesale customers has been very constructive. This is an issue, as I said, that's not unique to Carter's. They're seeing it in their own private label sourcing. They're seeing it from their other vendors. I think it's just understood that there has to be some measure of sharing. They've responded really well, so that's how we're handling it in the wholesale channel.
因此,我們已經開始提高價格,包括批發管道。這件事從上個月底我們開始運送秋季產品時就開始了。我想說我們與批發客戶的對話非常有建設性。正如我所說,這個問題並不是卡特獨有的。他們在自己的自有品牌採購中看到了這一點。他們從其他供應商那裡看到了這一點。我認為,必須有一定程度的共享。他們的反應非常好,所以我們在批發管道就是這樣處理的。
We have probably more flexibility in our own retail channel obviously to change prices dynamically based on what we're seeing, and as I had mentioned in recent weeks, we're actually seeing competitors raise their prices. So it's our intention to probe up where we can. We'll obviously read the situation with what how the consumers respond.
我們在自己的零售通路中可能擁有更大的靈活性,顯然可以根據我們所看到的情況動態地調整價格,正如我最近幾週提到的那樣,我們實際上看到競爭對手提高了價格。因此,我們打算盡可能地進行探索。我們顯然會了解消費者的反應狀況。
Interestingly, the best performing part of the assortment is our best set of products, the products that have the most, added benefits and features and carry the highest price points. So clearly our consumers recognize when we've added to our assortments we've added features and benefits they're willing to pay for that, and that's why we're leaning into that part of the assortment in particular that helps on the pricing front as well.
有趣的是,產品組合中表現最好的部分是我們最好的產品組合,這些產品具有最多的附加優勢和功能,價格最高。因此,我們的消費者清楚地認識到,當我們增加產品種類時,我們增加了他們願意為此付費的功能和優勢,這就是為什麼我們特別傾向於在定價方面提供幫助的那部分產品種類。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Just to add to that, we are seeing reasons to believe that our consumers are appreciating those opportunities. Again, I reference specifically Little Planet and PurelySoft, which is a Carter's assortment as examples of where we're seeing real achievement there. It's helping bring new consumers in more often as well. So it's not just what we have to raise prices on, it's what we want to raise prices on so that we are being more proactive and directive ourselves already.
除此之外,我們有理由相信我們的消費者正在珍惜這些機會。再次,我特別提到 Little Planet 和 PurelySoft(Carter 旗下品牌)作為我們在那裡看到真正成就的例子。它也有助於更頻繁地吸引新消費者。因此,我們不僅要提高某些商品的價格,還要提高某些商品的價格,這樣我們才能更積極主動、更具指導性。
Paul Lejuez - Analyst
Paul Lejuez - Analyst
Great, thank you so much. Best of luck.
太好了,非常感謝。祝你好運。
Operator
Operator
Jim Chartier, Monness, Crespi, Hardt.
吉姆·查蒂爾、蒙內斯、克雷斯皮、哈特。
Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst
Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst
Hi, good morning, Doug, you've talked about the need to invest to drive sustainable, profitable growth. Can you quantify, and give you a sense of how meaningful all those investments would be? And are those investments near term diluted to margins?
你好,早安,道格,你談到了投資推動永續獲利成長的必要性。您能否量化並讓您了解所有這些投資的意義?這些投資短期內是否會稀釋利潤率?
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
So I'm not going to quantify the investments. I will tell you that, historically, I do not believe we have invested sufficiently in demand creation and reaching our consumers with the best possible story, that's a real opportunity for us going forward, where we are already investing more the MROI and the return on the investment is outstanding.
所以我不會量化投資。我要告訴你,從歷史上看,我認為我們在需求創造和用最好的故事接觸消費者方面投資不足,這對我們前進來說是一個真正的機會,我們已經在 MROI 上投入了更多資金,而且投資回報率非常高。
And that I will just reiterate the two places where I believe demand creation investment is going to yield the greatest upside for us. One is store traffic and website traffic, and the other is consumer loyalty. And again, that return on invested capital, as we model it is very high both in terms of revenue and operating income. So we think we can continue to justify these increased investments, and we believe that they will drive growth that is profitable for us.
我只想重申我認為需求創造投資將為我們帶來最大收益的兩個面向。一是店家流量、網站流量,二是消費者忠誠度。而且,正如我們所模擬的,投資資本回報率無論從收入或營業收入來看都非常高。因此,我們認為我們可以繼續證明這些增加的投資是合理的,並且我們相信它們將推動我們實現盈利的成長。
Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst
Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst
Great. And then in terms of investing behind, the best product, and the best performing parts of the assortment, where does kind of second half stand, in terms of the changes that were made year over year relative to the first half?
偉大的。那麼,就投資背後、最佳產品以及產品組合中表現最佳的部分而言,相對於上半年而言,下半年的狀況如何?
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I will tell you that the assortments are starting -- are continuing to expand in this in the best bucket. Again, our reasons to believe are showing us that there's real resonance with our consumer with these products, and so there's no reason to slow down, so you will see more inventory. And you will see higher AURs, you will see more of this product in a more expansive way. To reiterate something that Richard said, I think you will see more newness more frequently from us throughout our platforms as well in the second half.
是的,我會告訴你,產品種類正在開始——並且在最佳類別中繼續擴大。再次,我們有理由相信,這些產品確實引起了消費者的共鳴,因此沒有理由放慢速度,所以你會看到更多的庫存。您將看到更高的 AUR,您將以更廣泛的方式看到更多此類產品。重申理查德所說的話,我認為在下半年,您也會在我們的平台上更頻繁地看到更多新鮮事物。
Kendra Krugman - Chief Product Officer
Kendra Krugman - Chief Product Officer
Yeah, breadth and depth of investment.
是的,投資的廣度和深度。
Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst
Jim Chartier, CFA - Analyst
Great thank you.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Chris Nardone, Bank of America.
克里斯·納爾多內,美國銀行。
Christopher Nardone - Analyst
Christopher Nardone - Analyst
Thanks guys. Good morning. So Doug, just with your first on the business, I'm curious to hear why you think the category has been relatively weak over the last several years and just how the competitive landscape in the category has changed. Maybe you can put into context how much the category has grown and your confidence in really getting this business back to growth.
謝謝大家。早安.道格,首先,關於你的業務,我很好奇你為什麼認為這個類別在過去幾年里相對較弱,以及這個類別的競爭格局發生了怎樣的變化。也許您可以把這個類別的成長情況和您對讓這個業務恢復成長的信心放在一起。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we know the market is down approximately 2% overall, but what we've seen is the primary change in the landscape is around private label, when you, when you go into a lot of our key account partners you'll see much greater investment for themin our category. I think that's what primarily what we're seeing is growth from them.
是的,我們知道市場整體下降了約 2%,但我們看到,市場格局的主要變化在於自有品牌,當你了解我們的許多主要客戶合作夥伴時,你會看到我們類別的投資要大得多。我認為這就是我們所看到的他們的成長。
But I would also tell you that as I have met with a lot of these key accounts directly, what they have told us is they expect us to grow our business as their primary baby and toddler national brand. So yes, more competition from private label in these key accounts, but also more of an opportunity for us as the leader. And we definitely are leaning into that and plan to continue to build on that as well.
但我還要告訴你,當我直接與許多重要客戶會面時,他們告訴我們,他們希望我們將業務發展為他們主要的嬰幼兒國家品牌。所以是的,這些主要客戶中來自自有品牌的競爭更加激烈,但對我們作為領導者來說也是更多的機會。我們確實傾向於這樣做,並計劃繼續在此基礎上發展。
Yeah, the other note I would have for you just is to keep an eye on international because there's a lot of bright signs there for us as well, and we are again are leaning on our awareness. 160 years of trust means something in a lot of places around the world, and we benefit from tremendous awareness, especially around quality. We find that's something where we outpace all the other brands, and that's true outside of the United States as well. Richard spoke to our results in Canada, Mexico, and I talked about Brazil all as good examples there.
是的,我要提醒您的另一點是要密切關注國際形勢,因為那裡也有很多光明的跡象,而且我們再次依靠我們的意識。 160 年的信任在世界許多地方都具有重要意義,我們受益於巨大的意識,尤其是在品質方面。我們發現這是我們超越所有其他品牌的地方,在美國以外也是如此。理查德談到了我們在加拿大、墨西哥的成果,我則談到了巴西,這些都是很好的例子。
Christopher Nardone - Analyst
Christopher Nardone - Analyst
Got it. Very helpful. Then just a quick follow up on the wholesale business. I noticed the exclusive business two to three are growing. Has there been any material change in sell through or just the health of inventory in the channel? And then also you're pushing, more of your best product into the market. Is there an opportunity to expand shelf space with Little Planet, PurelySoft, and your newly launched brand? Like how big of an opportunity is that over the next couple of years?
知道了。非常有幫助。然後快速跟進批發業務。我注意到二到三家獨家業務正在成長。銷售量或通路庫存狀況是否有任何重大變化?然後你也會將更多最好的產品推向市場。Little Planet、PurelySoft 和新推出的品牌是否有機會擴大貨架空間?例如,未來幾年這個機會有多大?
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
So, Chris, I'd say that there is an opportunity for us to broaden the availability of our brand portfolio in the wholesale channel, and that's something that Doug has been helping us prioritize. I think there is an opportunity to see greater penetration of Little Planet, the new brand that we've launched this week, Otter Avenue, we're only days into it, but we think that's a great opportunity where it's differentiated product. It's a white space in the market. And so we think that's an opportunity with a number of our wholesale customers over time as well.
因此,克里斯,我想說,我們有機會擴大我們的品牌組合在批發管道的可用性,而這正是道格一直在幫助我們優先考慮的事情。我認為我們本週推出的新品牌「小小星球」(Little Planet)有機會獲得更大的滲透率,Otter Avenue,我們才剛推出幾天,但我們認為這是一個很好的機會,可以推出差異化產品。這是市場上的一個空白。因此,我們認為,從長遠來看,這對我們的許多批發客戶來說也是一個機會。
I would say on balance sell throughs have been good. We're kind of early into kind of fall winter selling that'll start to ramp up here in coming weeks. We'll get a better read on back to school here with our key customers in the next number of weeks. But on balance, as I said in my remarks, the outlook for demand in the wholesale channel has held up very well for fall winter product, and so I'm encouraged about what the next few months could mean in that segment of the business.
我想說整體來說銷售情況還不錯。我們正處於秋冬銷售的初期,未來幾週銷售將開始上升。在接下來的幾週內,我們將與我們的主要客戶一起更了解返校情況。但總的來說,正如我在發言中所說,批發管道對秋冬產品的需求前景非常好,因此我對未來幾個月該業務領域的情況感到鼓舞。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, and I would just also refer back to my comments about redrawing our wholesale landscape. Because I think you will see, as I said, more of our brands in more accounts in more doors as we move forward, and traveling the country, visiting these accounts directly with our wholesale leader, we clearly have that opportunity and that invitation from our key accounts.
是的,我也會回顧一下關於重新繪製我們的批發格局的評論。因為我認為,正如我所說的,隨著我們不斷前進,你們會看到我們的更多品牌出現在更多客戶中,出現在更多門市中,走遍全國,與我們的批發領導直接拜訪這些客戶,我們顯然擁有這樣的機會,也擁有來自主要客戶的邀請。
Christopher Nardone - Analyst
Christopher Nardone - Analyst
Alright, thanks, guys. Good luck.
好的,謝謝大家。祝你好運。
Operator
Operator
Ike Boruchow, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的艾克·博魯喬(Ike Boruchow)。
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Hey, good morning everyone, couple questions, for me, I guess I know there's no guidance on revenue, but, I guess just when we think the big picture, in the back half of the year, which channel, whether it's direct to consumer or wholesale would you expect to outperform in the back half?
嘿,大家早上好,我有幾個問題,對我來說,我想我知道沒有關於收入的指導,但是,我想當我們考慮大局時,在下半年,您預計哪個渠道(無論是直接面向消費者還是批發)會在下半年表現出色?
And then I guess for, to both channels, would you expect the rate of change on revenue from where we are today to worsen or stay the same as you push price -- now you're talking about pushing price a little bit more aggressively than you were in the first half.
然後我想,對於這兩個管道來說,您是否預計收入的變化率會從現在的水平惡化或保持不變,因為您推動的價格現在比上半年更加積極地推動價格。
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Iâd say on balance we have higher revenue growth planned in the second half relative to the first half, and that would be led by the largest business for us, which is our direct to consumer business. So we have, I'd say probably more direct control over what gets executed in our own retail business than we do on the wholesale channel. We've sold in obviously fall winter, those bookings were planned kind of comparable year over year. We have replenishment demand planned up slightly in the second half.
我想說,總的來說,我們計劃下半年的收入成長將高於上半年,而這將由我們最大的業務——直接面向消費者的業務——所帶動。因此,我想說,與批發通路相比,我們對自己的零售業務的執行情況有更直接的控制權。我們顯然在秋冬季就已經售出了,這些預訂量與去年同期相比計劃相當。我們計劃在下半年略微增加補貨需求。
So I think the outlook across our channels and of course continued momentum to Doug's point in international. We've been on just a great streak there and so I would expect that demand profile to continue in our international segment.
因此,我認為我們各個管道的前景以及道格在國際上的觀點將繼續保持下去。我們在那裡一直表現良好,因此我預計這種需求狀況將在我們的國際領域繼續延續。
So on balance forecasting some acceleration of revenue growth in the second half. We do have an extra week in the second half just to be transparent on that. We're in a 53rd week year, so that contributes to the second half as well.
因此,整體而言,預測下半年營收成長將會加快。為了確保這一點的透明性,我們在下半年確實有額外的一周時間。今年是第 53 週,所以這對下半年也有影響。
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Yeah, thanks Richard. And then I guess just to move to the margin. So on the [$35 million] that you guys talked about, it's roughly, I think 200 basis points in the back half. I guess just Richard, just, you're talking about AURs that were down 4, now you're planning up low singles. Can you just do the math for me if AURs are up low singles, how much of that roughly 200 basis points to each headwind gets offset?
是的,謝謝理查。然後我想只需移至邊緣即可。因此,關於你們談論的 [3500 萬美元],我認為下半年大約是 200 個基點。我想理查德,你剛才談論的是下降了 4 的 AUR,現在你正在計劃低單打。您能否幫我算一下,如果 AUR 上漲幅度較小,那麼每次逆風帶來的大約 200 個基點中有多少會被抵消?
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Well, I'd say it's a portion. I don't know if I'll be as discreet as all the basis points, but, we -- as I said, it's just tougher to cover the impact from the tariffs near term with pricing. There's some measure of an offset, but it won't completely offset the impact. The $35 million is the net effect after taking some benefit from pricing, other offsets in terms of vendor sharing and such. That's the net amount.
嗯,我想說這只是一部分。我不知道我是否會像所有基點一樣謹慎,但是,正如我所說,透過定價來彌補近期關稅的影響更加困難。有一定程度的抵消,但不會完全抵消影響。3500 萬美元是扣除定價收益、供應商分成等其他補償後的淨效應。這就是淨額。
To your point though, we are planning AURs up in the second half, and so that's less of a drag. There's also, if you recall from just our guidance earlier in the year. The dynamics was expected to shift a bit independent of tariffs between first half and second half, first half was a bit more of that drag from lower AURs in the retail business, far less so and actually prices planned up in the second half. What becomes a bit more of a swing factor is product costs themselves are higher in the second half, independent of tariffs, and that's conscious on our part. That's where we've made investments in the product. That's what's driving momentum with the consumer and so that comes through a bit as well, discreetly looking at product costs.
不過,正如您所說,我們計劃在下半年提高 AUR,因此這不會造成太大的拖累。如果您還記得我們今年早些時候的指導,那麼還有這一點。預計上半年和下半年之間的動態將略有變化,不受關稅影響,上半年零售業務較低的 AUR 帶來的拖累稍大一些,而下半年的拖累則小得多,實際上價格計劃上漲。更具決定性的因素是,下半年產品成本本身會更高,與關稅無關,這是我們意識到的。這就是我們對產品進行投資的地方。這就是推動消費者購買動力的因素,因此,謹慎檢視產品成本也會產生一定作用。
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Okay, so the [$35 million] is after the, they assume price increases go in.
好的,所以 [3500 萬美元] 是在他們假設價格上漲之後計算的。
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
That's correct.
沒錯。
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Okay, great, that's helpful. And then my last one for Doug. Bigger picture, I think just to go back to the first question, Jay's question, I think, obviously we're all interested in long term earnings power and growth and all that, but I'd like to ask more. For the short term, honestly, I mean, it seems like you guys are in reset mode in 25, and that likely goes deeper to '26. You're dealing with tariffs, you have to accelerate investment. Is there any way to frame where you see the bottom of margin or profit dollars as you look to hit stabilization, I assume in the next 12 plus-months? Just any other help you can kind of give us would be great.
好的,太好了,這很有幫助。這是我給 Doug 的最後一封信。從更大的角度來看,我想回到第一個問題,傑伊的問題,我認為,顯然我們都對長期盈利能力和增長等感興趣,但我想問更多。就短期而言,老實說,我的意思是,看起來你們在 25 年處於重置模式,而這種情況可能會在 26 年進一步加劇。你要處理關稅問題,你必須加快投資。當您期望在未來 12 個多月內實現穩定時,有什麼方法可以確定利潤或利潤的底部嗎?如果您能給予我們任何其他幫助,我們將非常感激。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I really don't think that there's much more detail we can provide beyond what we've already said. I would just reinforce a couple of things to you. My primary long-term objective is long term, sustainable, profitable growth. All three of those things must be true for Carter's to win.
是的,我真的不認為除了我們已經說過的內容之外,我們還可以提供更多細節。我只是想向你強調幾件事。我的主要長期目標是長期、可持續、獲利的成長。卡特要獲勝,就必須滿足這三個條件。
We've given back some market share in the past few years. We have a very clear plan to win that back and we're going to win that back with product that is profitable. And again, we're already seeing reasons to believe that we can do that, and that's resonating with our consumers. The newness that we're putting in the marketplace is yielding the best results that we have.
過去幾年裡,我們失去了一些市場份額。我們有一個非常明確的計劃來贏回這些客戶,並且我們將透過有利可圖的產品來贏回這些客戶。而且,我們已經有理由相信我們能夠做到這一點,而這也引起了消費者的共鳴。我們向市場推出的新產品正在產生最佳效果。
Our wholesale partners are encouraging us to grow with them as they grow this part of their business. Their dedication to what we do is a big part of their future success as well. So long term sustainable, profitable growth. Sound like a broken record, but we're, that's short term, midterm and long term what we're focused on here.
我們的批發合作夥伴鼓勵我們與他們共同成長,因為他們正在發展這部分業務。他們對我們所做工作的奉獻精神也是他們未來成功的重要組成部分。因此,我們需要實現長期可持續的、獲利的成長。聽起來像是老生常談,但我們在這裡關注的是短期、中期和長期。
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Thanks a lot.
多謝。
Operator
Operator
Paul Kearney, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的保羅·科爾尼。
Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst
Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I guess with the outlook for AUR to increase single digit in the back half, what is your expectation for promotions in the market? And relative to competition, are the planned price increases in line with what you are already starting to see competitively in the market?
早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我估計下半年 AUR 預計將成長個位數,您對市場促銷活動有何期待?相對於競爭,計劃中的價格上漲是否與您已經開始看到的市場競爭情況一致?
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
I think it continues to be a very promotional marketplace. I don't know if it's more so than it has been. As I said, we are starting to see some indication of response from the -- across the industry across the competitive side to presumably tariffs, and so we will read that. I think our retail team in particular does a great job in kind of scraping the competitive price information out there and making sure that we are competitively priced. That's our mission is to not be an outlier. We want to be competitive, but our brands are worth more. And we think that we'll have the ability to successfully price up to cover, so that's kind of how we're thinking about it.
我認為它仍然是一個非常具有促銷性的市場。我不知道現在的情況是否比以前更糟。正如我所說,我們開始看到整個行業、整個競爭對手對可能是關稅做出一些反應,因此我們將讀到這一點。我認為我們的零售團隊在收集競爭性價格資訊和確保我們的價格具有競爭力方面做得非常出色。我們的使命就是不成為局外人。我們希望具有競爭力,但我們的品牌更有價值。我們認為我們有能力成功定價以覆蓋範圍,這就是我們的想法。
Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst
Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst
Okay. And then my second is when you think about improving the store productivity in the DTC business, I know you can't quantify, but can you help me rank some of the shifts in SG&A spend between maybe taking out some cost and one of the bigger buckets of reallocating and reinvesting between marketing or product or anything else, just ranking some of the puts and takes on SG&A to improve the productivity long term. Thanks.
好的。然後我的第二個問題是,當您考慮提高 DTC 業務中的商店生產力時,我知道您無法量化,但您能否幫助我對 SG&A 支出的一些變化進行排名,可能是在扣除一些成本和在營銷或產品或其他任何方面進行更大的重新分配和再投資之間進行排名,只是對 SG&A 的一些投入和支出進行排名,以長期提高生產力和支出。謝謝。
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Sure, well, I would say in general stores are expensive to operate. They have a high fixed cost structure. They're SG&A intensive and so as we look to close 100 stores, that SG&A comes out of the base, and these are stores that are kind of marginally productive. They're making a few million. They're losing a few million. They're at the margins by definition. So that SG&A comes out of the base.
當然,我想說一般商店的經營成本很高。他們的固定成本結構很高。他們的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 非常高,因此當我們考慮關閉 100 家門市時,銷售、一般及行政費用就從基礎中扣除,而這些門市的生產力比較低。他們賺了幾百萬。他們損失了幾百萬。從定義上來說,他們處於邊緣。這樣銷售、一般及行政費用就從基礎中扣除了。
We have a good ongoing productivity program. I think we've done in general a good job managing SG&A over the last number of years. We're trying to keep a lid on hiring where we can, organizational costs. We have a great indirect procurement program where we've become much more disciplined and how we go to market and procure the things that we need to run the enterprise.
我們有一個很好的持續生產力計劃。我認為過去幾年我們在管理銷售、一般及行政費用方面總體做得很好。我們正在盡力控制招募數量和組織成本。我們有一個很棒的間接採購計劃,在這個計劃中,我們變得更加自律,並且更加規範地了解我們如何進入市場並採購經營企業所需的東西。
We would like to find more savings there and, I think a destination would be in some of this marketing investments that we've talked about, we want to drive more demand in the business. So that would be an area of possible reinvestment over time.
我們希望在那裡找到更多的節省,我認為目的地將是我們所談論的一些行銷投資,我們希望推動更多的業務需求。因此,隨著時間的推移,這將是一個可能進行再投資的領域。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I would just add and reinforce a couple things that I said. Our in-store metrics are performing much better, quarter over quarter too for multiple quarters now. Our opportunity is driving greater traffic. There's a lot of ways to do that, better real estate decisions all the way through demand creation. But that's the unlock for us, right? So that is one of the two key investment buckets I talked about. We need to bring more people into the stores onto our websites, and then once there, I think we're doing a much better job of converting them and keeping them, keeping their loyalty.
是的。我只是想補充並強調我所說的幾件事。我們的店內指標表現越來越好,而且連續多個季度都比上一季有所改善。我們的機會是推動更多的流量。有很多方法可以做到這一點,透過創造需求來做出更好的房地產決策。但這就是我們的解鎖方式,對嗎?這就是我談到的兩個關鍵投資領域之一。我們需要透過我們的網站吸引更多的顧客到店,然後,我認為,一旦顧客來了,我們就能更好地轉化他們,留住他們,保持他們的忠誠度。
Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst
Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst
Okay. Last one, if I can just squeeze one more in. I think just on tariffs, you mentioned you expect to mitigate them in 2026 and beyond. Does that mean you expect to fully offset them in 2026, or should we be looking to 2027 for additional offsets? Thank you.
好的。最後一個,如果我能再擠一點的話。我認為就關稅而言,您提到預計在 2026 年及以後會降低關稅。這是否意味著您預計在 2026 年將完全抵消這些排放,還是我們應該預期 2027 年將實現額外的抵銷?謝謝。
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Richard Westenberger - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Our intention, Paul, would be to offset them fully in 2026, so we'll have more to say over time, but that's the direction we've given to the organization and the teams are moving out against that priority.
保羅,我們的目的是在 2026 年完全抵消這些影響,因此隨著時間的推移我們會有更多話要說,但這是我們給予組織的方向,而各支球隊正在朝著這個優先事項邁進。
Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst
Paul Kearney - Equity Analyst
Thank you. Best of luck.
謝謝。祝你好運。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. That's all the time we have for questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Doug Palladini for closing remarks.
謝謝。我們回答問題的時間就這麼多了。我想將電話轉回給 Doug Palladini 做最後發言。
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Douglas Palladini - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we're at time, so I'll be very brief here. Thank you all for your time and interest in Carter's. Hopefully you've seen, as I do, that our business is stabilizing and that we are in a position to grow again. I see myriad reasons to believe that we're moving into a phase of long-term sustainable and profitable growth, but please remember we're just getting started. I look forward to sharing much more with you as we move forward. Thank you.
是的,時間到了,所以我會在這裡簡短地講一下。感謝大家對 Carter's 的時間和興趣。希望您和我一樣看到,我們的業務正在穩定下來,並且我們能夠再次成長。我看到無數理由相信我們正在進入一個長期可持續和盈利增長的階段,但請記住我們才剛剛開始。我期待在我們前進的過程中與您分享更多。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program you me now [disconnect]. Every everyone, have a great day.
感謝您的參與。這確實結束了你現在的程序[斷開]。祝大家有個愉快的一天。