Cresud SACIF y A (CRESY) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Santiago Donato, Investor Relations Officer of Cresud, and I welcome you to the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 results conference call. First of all, I would like to remind you that a replay of this webinar, the presentation and the earnings release will be available on our website at www.cresud.com.ar. After management remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session for analysts and investors. (Operator Instructions)

大家下午好。我是 Cresud 投資者關係官 Santiago Donato，歡迎您參加 2025 財年第三季業績電話會議。首先，我想提醒您，本次網路研討會、簡報和收益報告的重播將在我們的網站 www.cresud.com.ar 上提供。管理層發言後，將安排分析師和投資人問答環節。（操作員指示）

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded, and the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's earnings release regarding forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次通話正在錄音，今天討論的資訊可能包括有關公司財務和經營業績的前瞻性陳述。所有預測都存在風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱公司收益報告中有關前瞻性陳述的詳細說明。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Alejandro Elsztain, CEO.

現在我將把電話轉給執行長 Alejandro Elsztain 先生。

Good afternoon, everybody. Let's begin in page number 2, the main events for the third quarter of this year. And we are in a good campaign, I would say, comparing to last year, it's a bigger campaign. It's bigger planted area comparing. And the main reason was the more listings on the region in Argentina and in Brazil, and we expect to keep growing in leasing for next year, too.

大家下午好。讓我們從第 2 頁開始，了解今年第三季的主要事件。我想說，與去年相比，我們的競選活動規模更大，而且很成功。相比之下，它的種植面積更大。主要原因是阿根廷和巴西地區的房源數量增加，我們預計明年的租賃量也將持續成長。

Related to climate, there was an average good climate in the region. The only part that didn't receive good rain was mainly Argentina in the North and Paraguay. Paraguay, as Argentina suffered some drought on the summer, and that impacted the yields on the summer crops. In the rest were generally good weather conditions. Related to the commodity prices and the input costs, we are seeing a stable -- I would say, stable price time of the -- mainly in the soybean, some rebound in the corn, I will show you later.

就氣候而言，該地區平均氣候良好。唯一沒有迎來良好降雨的地區主要是北部的阿根廷和巴拉圭。巴拉圭，因為阿根廷在夏季遭遇了乾旱，這影響了夏季作物的產量。其餘地區的天氣狀況大致良好。與商品價格和投入成本相關，我們看到了穩定的——我想說，穩定的價格時期——主要是大豆，玉米有一些反彈，我稍後會向大家展示。

And the cost was stable, too, and we are expecting a reduce in the next campaign on costs. We have seen something that is very important to Argentina that is the removal of capital controls that is reducing the gap of the $2 that we had in the past, and we are going to see what important is the impact for the future for the Argentine results. Related to BrasilAgro, we are being in the middle of good productive results, mainly in sugarcane that has much better yield and prices of last year.

而且成本也很穩定，我們預期下一次活動的成本會降低。我們已經看到對阿根廷來說非常重要的一件事，那就是取消資本管制，這將縮小我們過去 2 美元的缺口，我們將看看這對阿根廷未來的結果有何重要影響。與巴西農業相關，我們的生產表現良好，主要是甘蔗的產量和價格都比去年高得多。

And the rest of the crop, better in corn but worse mainly in soybeans and cotton. And related to real estate in the first nine months, we are seeing only in the first quarter sales that there were small sales in Los Pozos and Alto Taquari in Brazil but recently, in the last quarter, we didn't reflect any sale. But we are expecting for the next quarter, next -- before the end of the year.

其餘作物中，玉米長得較好，大豆和棉花等作物長勢較差。就前九個月的房地產而言，我們只看到第一季巴西洛斯波索斯和阿爾托塔誇裡有少量銷售，但最近，也就是上個季度，我們沒有看到任何銷售。但我們預計下一季，也就是年底之前。

We can move now to page number 3. And here, the evolution on planted area in the country's comparison, Argentina still seeing the biggest of the region. Brazil keep growing, mainly leasing, as I said, Bolivia and Paraguay and the breakdown of soybean 50%, 24% of corn, 9% of sugarcane. Sugarcane with this 27,000 hectares is really relevant in the time of the yields and the results and wheat and others.

現在我們可以翻到第 3 頁。從各國種植面積變化來看，阿根廷仍是該地區種植面積最大的國家。巴西繼續成長，主要是租賃，正如我所說，玻利維亞和巴拉圭的細分為大豆50％，玉米24％，甘蔗9％。這 27,000 公頃的甘蔗在產量和結果方面與小麥和其他作物確實相關。

If you can move to the next page we can see in page number 4, the recovery on the commodities and the input recovery and cost correction. Here, we see in the evolution of soybean, prices of today are comparable to before COVID and adjusted by inflation are worse than before COVID. If you adjust prices of inflation, today, what is at 10, in the past was more than 11.

如果您可以翻到下一頁，我們可以在第 4 頁看到商品的回收以及投入回收和成本修正。在這裡，我們看到大豆的演變，今天的價格與新冠疫情之前的價格相當，經通膨調整後的價格比新冠疫情之前更差。如果考慮通膨因素，今天的10%，過去是11%多。

So we are below that. But these days, we are seeing some beginning of the rebound on the price of the soybeans. And we can speak about what happened this weekend between China and US and this is impacting the prices for commodities for sure. We are seeing because of two reasons. One is the tax reduction of the tariffs went to 10% of China. And this is going to make, again, Chicago more relevant.

所以我們低於這個水平。但最近我們看到大豆價格開始出現反彈。我們可以談談本週末中美之間發生的事情，這肯定會影響大宗商品的價格。我們之所以看到這種情況，是因為兩個原因。一是將對華關稅降低10%。這將再次使芝加哥變得更具意義。

And we are seeing today that rebound and the bases are going to be affected too bases of South America that very, very high are decreasing these days because of the more important price of Chicago again, more trading for the future related to US. So -- but generally speaking, I think the impact of the weekend is going to affect oil and the oil is very, very correlated to the commodities and oil probably is affected because of there are not more recession expecting for world.

我們今天看到了反彈，基礎也將受到影響，南美洲的基礎非常高，這些天正在下降，因為芝加哥的價格再次變得更加重要，與美國相關的未來交易也更多。所以——但總的來說，我認為週末的影響將會影響石油，而石油與大宗商品非常密切相關，而且石油可能會受到影響，因為預計世界不會再出現經濟衰退。

The world was expecting a big reduction on sales on the oil trading and probably after this weekend is going normalizing the markets of the world and probably affecting commodity prices and probably what I expect is rebound on commodities but less paces on South America than they were. And in corn, there was a rebound through this year, and we are seeing a better yield and better margin to corn in South America because of this comp rebound of 28% of the last year. So generally speaking, a better environment for commodities for the campaign.

全世界都預計石油交易的銷售額將大幅減少，並且可能在本週末之後世界市場將恢復正常，並可能影響大宗商品價格，我預計大宗商品價格將出現反彈，但南美的反彈幅度將小於以前。今年玉米價格出現反彈，由於去年同期反彈了 28%，我們看到南美玉米的產量和利潤都有所提高。所以整體來說，競選的商品環境更好。

We can now move to next page in page number 5. And here, we can see the evolution on capital controls and FX convergence. I think this is the more relevant move for Argentina. And if I would have to speak about taxes on exports and caps on the dollars, I think it's more important the second. And the government announced a few days ago, that there is -- for the future, it's close to 0 the gap, today is 2%, 3% but the official dollar is close to 0 to the blue chip in Argentina.

現在我們可以移動到下一頁，也就是第 5 頁。在這裡，我們可以看到資本管制和外匯趨同的演變。我認為這對阿根廷來說是更有意義的舉措。如果我必須談論出口稅和美元上限，我認為後者更重要。幾天前，政府宣布，未來美元兌阿根廷藍籌股的匯率差距接近 0，目前是 2%、3%，但官方美元兌阿根廷藍籌股的匯率差額接近 0。

At least for farmers and always is good example where at the price of $500 in the US, it was the soybean in the times of $17 per bushel, the price of the US was $500, at the farmer at that time in the combination of the 33% taxes on exports and the gap of the dollars was collecting 170. Today, the farmer of Argentina is collecting 270. For next campaign, the price at 290. So we are adjusting to the prices of US. Today, the gap is 36%, taxes on networks are reflecting 36% and the gap is close to 0. So this is very relevant to the prices of the commodities in Argentina and to the prices of the land of Argentina

至少對農民來說，這始終是一個很好的例子，當美國大豆價格為 500 美元時，當時大豆價格為每蒲式耳 17 美元，而美國的價格為 500 美元，那麼當時農民在出口稅和差額的雙重作用下可以賺到 170 美元。如今，阿根廷農民正在收集 270 份。下次活動價格為 290。所以我們正在根據美國的價格進行調整。如今，差距為 36%，網路稅反映了 36%，差距接近 0。所以這與阿根廷的商品價格和土地價格非常相關

If we move to next page, page number 6, we see the climate conditions. The Argentina today is in a very good shape today for the winter, for next winter, we are going to plant everywhere because there was a big recovery in the humidity on the land in all the corn bed of Argentina but we suffered some droughts and distance of rates between the summertime in mainly the soybean and corn time, and we are seeing in some regions some losses that we have like more than 50% of the crop and that affected a lot the yields of Salta and Paraguay. We are now in the middle of the harvest time.

如果我們翻到下一頁，第 6 頁，我們會看到氣候條件。阿根廷目前的冬季狀況非常好，對於明年冬季，我們將在各地播種，因為阿根廷所有玉米田的濕度都大幅恢復，但我們遭遇了一些乾旱，夏季大豆和玉米的生長速度也出現了差距，我們看到一些地區作物損失超過 50%，這對薩爾塔和巴拉圭的產量造成了很大影響。我們現在正處於收穫的季節。

Brazil finished but Argentina is in the 38, Bolivia 78 Paraguay just 12 but we see some damage, and we are forecasting that much mainly these two places, north of Argentina and Paraguay, affecting the two main crops, soybean and corn. So when we are forecasting, we are affecting yields on these two. So the agriculture season is not the best as expected because these two effects. The rest is almost normal. So we are expecting a more normal agriculture year, very good in sugarcane, some good in corn but less good in soybeans and cotton.

巴西已完結，但阿根廷排在第 38 位，玻利維亞排在第 78 位，巴拉圭僅排在第 12 位，但我們看到了一些損失，我們預測損失主要發生在阿根廷和巴拉圭北部的這兩個地方，影響兩種主要作物，大豆和玉米。因此，當我們進行預測時，我們會影響這兩者之間的收益。因此，受這兩方面因素影響，今年的農業季景氣度並不如預期那麼好。其餘部分幾乎正常。因此，我們預計今年的農業收成將更加正常，甘蔗收成非常好，玉米收成不錯，但大豆和棉花收成較差。

And in wheat that we finished, was good campaign but not so good at last year. And if we move to next page, you can see what I'm saying. We are expecting a growth year-to-year, a forecast of increasing 23% yields in the region between Argentina and the region. So a big impact. Remember, we were growing inside not so much.

我們完成的小麥表現不錯，但去年的表現不太好。如果我們翻到下一頁，您就會明白我的意思。我們預計該地區的收益率將逐年增長，阿根廷與該地區之間的收益率預計將增加 23%。影響很大。請記住，我們的內心並沒有成長太多。

And the rest is because recovery of the yields more normal climate. And sugarcane too, an increase in the region in the yield and pricing sugarcane. So we see that the evolution -- operational evolution, there are some very good news related to sugarcane and the rest more mix between what I said. And we see the crop yields that we are expecting. Argentina is expecting a 2% increase, Brazil a 1% decrease in the soybeans, in Bolivia big decrease and Paraguay, a decrease too because last year was bad but this year is bad again.

其餘則是因為氣候恢復得更正常。甘蔗也是如此，該地區甘蔗的產量和價格都有所增加。因此，我們看到了演變——營運演變，有一些與甘蔗有關的非常好的消息，其餘的則更多地混合在我所說的內容中。我們看到了預期的農作物產量。阿根廷預計大豆產量將增加 2%，巴西預計減少 1%，玻利維亞將大幅減少，巴拉圭也會減少，因為去年產量不好，而今年產量又不好。

So Paraguay, it's close to 0. Last year was very negative. We are expecting close to 0 in agriculture in Paraguay. And in corn, some effect, too, we are seeing in Argentina, 14% increase in comparing to last year, 1% in Brazil. Bolivia is not raising in corn this year and 5 tons in Paraguay, very good result in Paraguay related to corn.

巴拉圭接近 0。去年的情況非常糟糕。我們預計巴拉圭的農業產量將接近 0。玉米產量也受到了一定的影響，阿根廷的玉米產量與去年相比增加了 14%，巴西的玉米產量增加了 1%。玻利維亞今年沒有種植玉米，巴拉圭種植了 5 噸玉米，巴拉圭的玉米產量非常好。

So we see mixed results related to our agriculture in this year but increasing insight. Related to cattle, very good year, and this is very good news for Argentina. Mainly Argentina, the main -- in cattle, it's only Argentina, we are close to 60,000 heads and we are seeing margins for the next nine months of $7 million, close to 7 million kilograms of production.

因此，我們看到今年與農業相關的結果好壞參半，但洞察力卻不斷增強。與牛有關，這是非常好的一年，這對阿根廷來說是個好消息。主要是阿根廷，主要的——就牛而言，只有阿根廷，我們有近 60,000 頭牛，我們預計未來 9 個月的利潤為 700 萬美元，產量將接近 700 萬公斤。

And this is part of the country that is expanding, and we were -- we can see the evolution of Argentina in the graph in the left that Argentina was at the lowest prices in the real dollar compared to the rest of the region. And today, we are in a comparable price to Uruguay in higher price than Brazil and Paraguay.

這是正在擴張的國家的一部分，我們可以在左側的圖表中看到阿根廷的演變，與該地區的其他國家相比，阿根廷的實際美元價格最低。今天，我們的價格與烏拉圭相當，但高於巴西和巴拉圭。

So Argentina with higher volume, more efficiency, more figures, more productivity, increasing the margin in cattle business, mainly in Argentina and now following in Paraguay too. Related to FyO, our stake in services. Here, we see the evolution of FyO and we are forecasting more than 7 million tons for the year, 6.7% market share of Argentina, very big in EBITDA.

因此，阿根廷的產量更高、效率更高、數據更多、生產力更高，增加了牛肉業務的利潤率，主要是在阿根廷，現在巴拉圭也緊隨其後。與 FyO 相關，我們在服務領域的股份。在這裡，我們看到了 FyO 的演變，我們預測今年的產量將超過 700 萬噸，佔阿根廷市場份額的 6.7%，EBITDA 非常大。

This company is really in all the services that we are dealing in a (inaudible) capital in credit, in advisory, in specialties. So the company's for sure, the largest broker of Argentina and the function of Brazil is beginning to see some fruits.

這家公司確實在我們所經營的所有服務領域都擁有（聽不清楚）資本，包括信貸、諮詢和專業領域。因此，可以肯定的是，該公司作為阿根廷和巴西最大的經紀商，正在開始取得一些成果。

The first half of the year, we surpassed last year numbers. We are more than doubling this year the numbers of last year. So this service company is not only confirming the size and the evolution in Argentina, but now making its new path in Brazil. So saying that, I gave you some picture of Argentina.

今年上半年，我們的數字超過了去年全年。今年我們的人數比去年增加了一倍以上。因此，這家服務公司不僅在阿根廷確立了規模和發展，現在正在巴西開闢新的道路。話雖如此，我還是向你們展示了一些阿根廷的照片。

I will now introduce Matias Gaivironsky to talk about IRSA investment, where Cresud owns 55% of the stake.

現在我將介紹 Matias Gaivironsky 來談談 IRSA 投資，Cresud 擁有 55% 的股份。

Thank you, Alejandro. Good afternoon, everybody. So if we see the results of IRSA during this nine-month period, we achieved a profit of ARS35 billion compared with a loss last year. If you remember, during the first six months, IRSA posted losses. And in this quarter, we revert those losses into profits.

謝謝你，亞歷杭德羅。大家下午好。因此，如果我們看一下 IRSA 在這九個月期間的業績，我們實現了 350 億阿根廷比索的利潤，而去年則出現虧損。如果你還記得的話，在前六個月，IRSA 出現了虧損。本季度，我們將這些損失轉為利潤。

Major news about our mall segment, where we can see for the first time in the year, an increase in tenant sales. We increased 13.4% of our tenant sales compared with the previous year, still below when we consider the accumulated nine months, 4.6% below last year but with a trend that is a recovery. About the office portfolio, we maintained 100% occupancy and similar prices than last year. We saw a drop in the hotel segment because of the new macroeconomic situation of Argentina and prices. We are receiving less inflows of tourism to the country, and that has an impact on occupancy in our hotels.

關於我們購物中心部門的重大新聞，我們今年首次看到租戶銷售額的成長。與前一年相比，我們的租戶銷售額成長了 13.4%，儘管仍低於累計九個月的水平，即比去年低 4.6%，但趨勢呈現復甦態勢。關於辦公室組合，我們維持了 100% 的入住率，價格與去年相似。由於阿根廷新的宏觀經濟形勢和價格因素，我們看到酒店業出現下滑。我們國家接待的遊客數量正在減少，這對我們酒店的入住率產生了影響。

About (inaudible) we are very happy with the progress of the commercialization. We already signed around 11, [12] transactions and 2 are sales in cash and 9 are swaps agreements where IRSA will receive square meters in the future. And also, IRSA has important news about the debt that tapped the international capital market issuing a new note that expiring in 2035.

關於（聽不清楚）我們對商業化的進展感到非常高興。我們已經簽署了大約 11,[12] 筆交易，其中 2 筆是現金銷售，9 筆是掉期協議，IRSA 未來將獲得平方公尺。此外，IRSA 也傳來重要消息，稱其已在國際資本市場發行了有效期為 2035 年的新債券。

When we see the evolution of the rental adjusted EBITDA, we can see that are similar -- an increase to the previous year but an increase in the shopping mall segment. In fact, we have a record high for the last 10 years in the EBITDA in dollar terms for our mall segment. To the financial results of Cresud. First to stand the figures, it's tough when you compare figures that are the main driver is dollars like in Cresud, when you have to adjust that by inflation. So you have the pesos of last year adjusted by inflation, that really inflates the number of the last year.

當我們看到租金調整後的 EBITDA 的變化時，我們可以看到它們是相似的——比去年有所增加，但購物中心部分有所增加。事實上，我們的購物中心部門的 EBITDA（以美元計算）創下了過去 10 年來的最高紀錄。對於 Cresud 的財務表現。首先來看數據，當你比較像 Cresud 那樣主要由美元驅動的數據時，這很困難，因為你必須根據通貨膨脹來調整它。因此，您要根據通貨膨脹調整去年的比索，這實際上會提高去年的數字。

It's like we have a dollar, similar dollar of 100 -- sorry, 1,800 compared with the current 1,000. Now it's like when we convert the pesos, we are giving a 70% increase in pesos terms to the last year figures. Also, the evolution of the dollar and appreciation of the peso, both in the official exchange rate and the blue-chip swap will have an impact when we value the investment properties at fair value.

就像我們現在有一美元，相當於 100 美元——抱歉，是 1,800 美元，而現在只有 1,000 美元。現在，當我們兌換比索時，我們會將比索金額與去年的數字進行比較，增加 70%。此外，當我們以公允價值評估投資性房地產時，美元的演變和比索的升值（無論是官方匯率還是藍籌掉期）都會產生影響。

If we move to page 13, we can see on the line of the operating results of Cresud, what happened, we have a drop, 83% drop. Part of that is explained on what I just said about the dollar and we're expressing pesos of last year, dollars of last year in pesos adjusted by inflation but part related to some drivers that I will mention.

如果我們翻到第 13 頁，我們可以看到 Cresud 的經營業績出現了下降，下降了 83%。其中一部分是我剛才所說的關於美元的內容，我們表達的是去年的比索，去年的美元以比索表示，經過通貨膨脹調整，但部分與我將要提到的一些驅動因素有關。

So regarding FyO that you can see a drop from ARS29.8 billion to a loss of ARS19.9 billion during this year. This is attributable to first of all, some seasonality. Last year, you remember that we have special dollars for farming. So farmers tend to sell in advanced production. So the brokerage activity of FyO that last year was more relevant for that will be compensated in the coming quarters.

因此，就財政年度而言，您可以看到今年的虧損從 298 億阿根廷比索下降到 199 億阿根廷比索。這首先歸因於一些季節性因素。大家記得，去年我們有農業專款。因此農民傾向於提前出售產品。因此，FyO 去年的經紀活動與此更為相關，將在未來幾季獲得補償。

So the Alejandro mentioned, the forecast of FyO this year is positive. And if we see the net income line of FyO is also positive because part of the revenues or part of the results are recognized below the operating line. About the grains, we have a drop also from last year, ARS21.6 billion to a loss of ARS5.4 billion this year. Again, when Alejandro explained drivers on productivity will be positive when we compare with last year. Part of the results will be reverted.

因此亞歷杭德羅提到，今年財政年度的預測是正面的。如果我們看到 FyO 的淨收入線也是正的，因為部分收入或部分結果在營業線以下得到確認。關於穀物，我們的損失也從去年的 216 億阿根廷比索下降到今年的 54 億阿根廷比索。再次，當亞歷杭德羅解釋與去年相比，生產力的驅動因素將是積極的。部分結果將被撤銷。

Here, we have some effects of valuing stock at the current numbers. Also, the projection at the beginning of the quarter were higher than what really was. So that generated a negative result during this quarter. About the sugarcane line, we see a positive evolution. We have higher prices, higher productivity that part are compensated with higher cost but very positive numbers.

這裡，我們根據當前數字對股票進行估值，得出一些影響。此外，本季初的預測值高於實際情況。因此本季產生了負面結果。關於甘蔗生產線，我們看到了積極的進展。我們的價格更高，生產力更高，雖然這部分是透過更高的成本來補償的，但數字非常積極。

The same with cattle. We have a higher production of cattle during the -- this year compared with the previous year, a 24% increase, also higher prices, much higher than inflation. If we move to the next page, the fair value of our investment properties. This is mainly related to IRSA year. Last year, we have a loss of ARS588 billion.

牛也一樣。與去年相比，今年我們的牛肉產量增加了 24%，價格也上漲了，遠高於通膨率。如果我們翻到下一頁，就會看到我們的投資物業的公允價值。這主要與 IRSA 年有關。去年，我們虧損了5,880億阿根廷比索。

This year, we still have a loss lower than last year. This is a noncash effect that -- if we analyze values of the properties in dollar terms, we are maintaining the same dollars in offices and land bank and have a higher numbers in the shopping malls. But when we adjust by inflation and convert last year numbers into current numbers, that is why -- the reason why we are posting losses.

今年我們的虧損還是比去年低的。這是一種非現金效應——如果我們以美元來分析房地產價值，我們在辦公室和土地儲備方面的投入保持不變，而在購物中心方面的投入則更高。但當我們根據通貨膨脹進行調整並將去年的數字轉換為當前數字時，這就是我們虧損的原因。

Finally, the net financial line, we see a positive number, ARS86.5 billion compared with ARS145 billion last year, Part of that is related to the net FX result that since we have an appreciation of the peso, all the dollar-denominated debt when we convert into pesos that generated gains and also the fair value of our financial assets that also generate profits. With all these drivers we finished the nine-month period with a gain of ARS57.9 million compared with the loss of ARS39.9 billion last year.

最後，淨金融線，我們看到一個正數，865億阿根廷比索，而去年是1450億阿根廷比索，部分原因是由於比索升值，當我們將所有以美元計價的債務兌換成比索時，都產生了收益，同時我們的金融資產的公允價值也產生了利潤。在所有這些推動因素的作用下，我們在前九個月實現了 5,790 萬阿根廷比索的收益，而去年同期則虧損 399 億阿根廷比索。

Well, finally, about the debt, there are no major news here. The net debt remains at $300 million -- there is some mistake there. When you said gross debt, $349 million is net debt. $349.7 million and the debt amortization scale that we have somewhere for the debt that expire in the next years. There was some major news about the grade rating that was an upgrade to AAA for both Cresud and IRSA during February. So with this, we finish the formal presentation.

好吧，最後，關於債務，這裡沒有什麼重大新聞。淨債務仍為 3 億美元——這其中存在一些錯誤。當您說總債務時，3.49 億美元是淨債務。 3.497 億美元是我們為未來幾年到期的債務所製定的債務攤銷規模。2 月有關於 Cresud 和 IRSA 等級評定的重要新聞，均升級至 AAA。至此，我們的正式演講就結束了。

Now we open the line for your questions.

現在我們開放熱線回答大家的提問。

Well, now is the time for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

好了，現在是問答的時間。（操作員指示）

Yeah, we have the first question, here we have. Well, first question regarding dividends, if you are planning to distribute dividends this exercise.

是的，我們有第一個問題，就在這裡。好吧，第一個問題是關於股息的，如果您打算分配股息的話。

The decision will be taken on October. So our shareholders' meeting will be in October, we have to submit the proposal around September. So it's not decided yet. So I can't comment any more about that.

該決定將於十月作出。所以我們的股東大會將在十月舉行，我們必須在九月左右提交提案。所以還沒決定。所以我無法對此發表更多評論。

Good. Here a question regarding the sub-transactions at IRSA, if we can give a little bit more color on how it works. And what is the motivation for doing swap instead of developing?

好的。這裡有一個關於 IRSA 子交易的問題，我們能否更詳細地說明一下它的運作方式。那麼進行交換而不是開發的動機是什麼？

We entered in all the details about Ramblas in the webcast of IRSA. So we -- if you want to enter more deep analysis about that, there is recorded and is public in our website of IRSA. The motivation, just to comment to second, about the motivation is to give speed to the project. So we are giving land to the developers, the development will develop and pay us with square meters in the future.

我們在 IRSA 的網路直播中介紹了有關蘭布拉大街的所有細節。因此，如果您想對此進行更深入的分析，可以查看我們 IRSA 網站上的記錄和公開內容。動機，只是對第二個動機進行評論，是為了加快專案進度。因此，我們將土地提供給開發商，開發商將來會進行開發，並以平方公尺為單位向我們付款。

So it's a way for you to develop the project, give speed and became a relevant neighborhood in the city without investing our own money. So that is the main philosophy behind the strategy, but you can answer much more details in the presentation of IRSA or contact Santi for more information.

因此，這是一種無需投入自有資金即可開發項目、加快速度並成為城市相關社區的方式。這就是該策略背後的主要理念，但您可以在 IRSA 的演示中回答更多細節，或聯絡 Santi 以獲取更多資訊。

Sure. Yes, there is a question regarding investment in IRSA and what is Cresud long-term intention with this ownership?

當然。是的，有一個關於對 IRSA 的投資的問題，以及 Cresud 對該所有權的長期意圖是什麼？

It's a controlling shareholder, and we are not imagining any big changes days. So -- but really I don't know what he has to say.

它是一個控股股東，我們不認為未來會發生任何重大的變化。所以——但我真的不知道他要說什麼。

No. If you realize, we invested more money in IRSA when IRSA did the capital increase in 2021 and also, we did some acquisitions in the market. So we like the position that we have, and I think we have some complements between the agriculture activity and the activity of IRSA and there are some hedge between the two.

不。如果你意識到的話，當 IRSA 在 2021 年增資時，我們向 IRSA 投入了更多資金，而且我們還在市場上進行了一些收購。所以我們喜歡我們所擁有的地位，我認為我們的農業活動和 IRSA 活動之間存在一些互補性，並且兩者之間存在一些對沖。

These days, it's much better environment at the urban where the yield EBITDA and the farms are in tougher because drop of prices, the rebound probably is coming and maybe this is changing. We don't know, but really it's the biggest asset of Cresud in size, for sure. And so it's relevant for Cresud for sure. But we're not thinking of any big change in these days.

如今，城市的環境好多了，EBITDA 收益和農場的處境都更加艱難，因為價格下跌，反彈可能即將到來，也許這種情況正在改變。我們不知道，但確實，就規模而言，這確實是 Cresud 最大的資產。所以它肯定與 Cresud 有關。但目前我們還沒有考慮任何重大的改變。

Here a question regarding FyO or the results of negative of FyO. We can explain a little bit more. And if we can expect a dividend policy for the coming years, I imagine Cresud now in general.

這裡有一個關於 FyO 或 FyO 負面結果的問題。我們可以進一步解釋一下。如果我們可以預期未來幾年的股利政策，我現在可以想像 Cresud 的整體狀況。

And related to the EBITDA of FyO is very good, and Matias will explain the operational and the financial part of the balance sheet. But the real budget control of the company, it's generating a very profitable EBITDA. To give you a gross number, it's a $15 million EBITDA for the year that the company is expecting. So really is very -- in a very good shape and surpassing 7 million tons, it's the largest of the country, for sure, like a broker. And the brokerage is not only outputs but in inputs in fertilizers, in herbicides, in consultancy.

與 FyO 的 EBITDA 相關的非常好，Matias 將解釋資產負債表的營運和財務部分。但公司真正的預算控制正在產生非常有利可圖的 EBITDA。總體來說，該公司預計今年的 EBITDA 為 1500 萬美元。所以真的非常——狀況非常好，超過 700 萬噸，肯定是全國最大的，就像經紀人一樣。經紀業務不僅包括產出，還包括肥料、除草劑和諮詢的投入。

So the company intends to help farmers after production, not inside the farm but when the farming -- the output, it's ready, helps the farmer to close the futures in Argentina and abroad. So the company is helping the servicing farmers in a much bigger volume than Cresud, no?

因此，該公司打算在生產後幫助農民，不是在農場內部，而是在農業產出準備好時，幫助農民完成阿根廷和國外的期貨交易。所以該公司為服務農民提供的幫助比 Cresud 大得多，不是嗎？

Cresud was big at the beginning but not today. It's not irrelevant, but close to the relevant the volume of Cresud. And in Brazil, is coping the model and not arriving to the 1 million tons still but we expect to pass that. So -- but in the balance sheet, the Matias is going to explain what affected, and it's the main difference of the year in the profit -- in the operational profit of the year.

Cresud 一開始很有名，但今天卻不是。這並非不相關，但與 Cresud 的音量接近相關。巴西正在採用這一模式，雖然尚未達到 100 萬噸的目標，但我們預計將超過這個目標。所以 — — 但在資產負債表中，Matias 將會解釋是什麼影響了利潤，以及年度營業利潤的主要差異。

Yes. Well, there's some effects. The first one is when we took the last year results, as I mentioned, if we have to re-express an activity that is dollar-denominated into pesos and then those pesos adjusted by inflation, those pesos to the current numbers that give you like a sense that the number of last year is much higher than what really was.

是的。嗯，有一些效果。第一個是我們拿去年的結果來說，正如我所提到的，如果我們必須將以美元計價的活動重新表達為比索，然後將這些比索根據通貨膨脹進行調整，這些比索變成當前的數字，你會感覺到去年的數字比實際數字要高得多。

About this year and also there is some seasonality that last year because of the government gave special dollars for farmers trying to incentivize that they liquidate the grains and receive dollars. People tend to anticipate transactions and then generate more revenues at this moment of the year than in the current year.

今年的情況與去年一樣，有一定的季節性，因為政府給農民提供了專款，試圖激勵他們清算糧食並獲得資金。人們傾向於預測交易，然後在每年的這個時候產生比今年更多的收入。

Also, when we analyze the balance sheet or the financial statement of FyO, the activity of FyO sometimes they acquire the products from the farmers and do derivatives transactions that the result of the derivative transaction is in the financial line. So sometimes you see the loss -- or less profit in the revenues or net of the operating results but that will be compensated by derivatives that are below the line.

此外，當我們分析 FyO 的資產負債表或財務報表時，FyO 的活動有時會從農民那裡收購產品並進行衍生性商品交易，而衍生性商品交易的結果就在財務線上。因此，有時您會看到收入或營業利潤中的損失或利潤減少，但這將透過低於該線的衍生性商品來補償。

So at the end of the year, as Alejandro showed in the presentation, we are anticipating or projecting more volume for this year compared with the previous year, and prices are at higher prices than the previous year. So at the end of the year, in the next quarter, we should see positive numbers.

因此，正如亞歷杭德羅在演講中所展示的那樣，在年底，我們預計今年的產量將比去年更多，價格也將比去年更高。因此，到年底，也就是下個季度，我們應該會看到正數。

Good. Here, we have some questions regarding real estate, farming real estate, given the ongoing policy changes in Argentina and financial stabilization, Are You seeing any meaningful improvement in farmland prices? And do you intend to increase your pace of net investments in farmland in the country? And there is another one that is, do you plan to buy farmland in Argentina? Or do you see better investment opportunities through BrasilAgro in Brazil?

好的。這裡，我們有一些關於房地產、農業房地產的問題，鑑於阿根廷正在發生的政策變化和金融穩定，您是否看到農地價格有任何有意義的改善？您是否打算加大對全國農地淨投資的步伐？還有一個問題是，你打算在阿根廷買農地嗎？或者您是否透過 BrasilAgro 在巴西看到了更好的投資機會？

It's relevant what the government is doing related to agriculture. There are some critics that they didn't took -- they didn't take the taxes on exports still, they made a small reduction. Today, on June 30, there is a maybe a threat of coming back to the price to the taxes they were before. So coming back from the 26% of soybean to 33%. But still, the government insists that it's going to reduce.

這與政府在農業方面採取的行動有關。有人批評說他們沒有採取——他們仍然沒有徵收出口稅，只是進行了小幅削減。今天，即 6 月 30 日，可能存在價格和稅率恢復到之前的水平的威脅。因此大豆的比例從 26% 回升至 33%。但政府仍然堅持要減少。

And he still talks about finishing directly taxes and experts, understanding that damage a lot the agribusiness and it's true. But meantime, the announcement of the only $1 or close to $1 that I think this is the biggest macro now for Argentina. And I think -- that is going to explain why I'm so optimistic on the price of the land of Argentina. Argentina is connected to the price of the core belt of US that is the big correlation.

他仍然談論直接完成稅收和專家，了解這對農業綜合企業造成很大損害，這是事實。但與此同時，宣布僅增加 1 美元或接近 1 美元的金額，我認為這是目前阿根廷面臨的最大宏觀經濟問題。我想——這可以解釋為什麼我對阿根廷的土地價格如此樂觀。阿根廷與美國核心帶的價格是連在一起的，關聯性很大。

In 2012, 2013 and stayed almost at the same at the $12,000, $13,000, $14,000, $15,000, the hectare of the corn belt. These days, we see some rebound in Argentina. They are speaking about 10%, 20%, beginning to increase the price of the land. But regard to the price of the US all to Brazil is huge.

2012年、2013年玉米帶的價格基本上維持不變，分別為每公頃12,000美元、13,000美元、14,000美元和15,000美元。這些天，我們看到阿根廷有所反彈。他們正在談論 10%、20% 的土地價格上漲。但對巴西而言美國付出的代價卻是巨大的。

So there is a big chance of that to reduce in the future. So I think there is a drop or a small drop in the price of the land of US and Brazil, comparing to an increase because of the Argentine measures. So I'm optimistic, and we think that we are going to buy some new pieces in Argentina. We have a big portion in Argentina.

因此，未來這一數字很有可能下降。因此，我認為，與阿根廷措施導致的土地價格上漲相比，美國和巴西的土地價格下降或小幅下降。所以我很樂觀，我們認為我們將在阿根廷購買一些新產品。我們在阿根廷的份額很大。

So the biggest portfolio of land that we have inside of Argentina, we expect that to reevaluate but we think we are going to be buying some assets in Argentina these days, to because of these macro situations. Related to Brazil, yes, we are looking for opportunities, mainly in debt situations, forced to sell but the price of the land went very much up. So the opportunities in Brazil needs to appear because of some crisis. In general, prices are high. So in these prices, you don't find -- you don't see any rebound as we see in Argentina that is probably more possible.

因此，我們預計我們在阿根廷境內擁有的最大土地組合將重新評估，但我們認為，由於這些宏觀形勢，我們最近將在阿根廷購買一些資產。關於巴西，是的，我們正在尋找機會，主要是在債務情況下，被迫出售，但土地價格上漲了很多。所以巴西的機會需要因為一些危機而出現。整體來說，價格較高。因此，在這些價格下，你找不到——你看不到任何反彈，就像我們在阿根廷看到的那樣，而這種反彈更有可能出現。

Two more on the financial front. If you sell farms, how would you use that? So capital allocation, would you buy back shares, you could invest into new farms paying dividends, if you can give a little bit of color on capital allocation at Cresud.

另外兩個是在財務方面。如果您出售農場，您會如何使用它？那麼資本配置，你會回購股票嗎，你可以投資支付股息的新農場，如果你可以對 Cresud 的資本配置提供一些說明的話。

I know that (multiple speakers) making the question for you, all of the rest. I think I'll complete it all of that rest. Depending on the situation, we are trying to swap funds that they are mature and to buy in advance that we think have a very big room to appreciate. And the shares, as always, the share that it's very cheap compared to net asset value we buy. And every time we plan, we launched a new plan and buy back shares or buying other shares.

我知道（多位發言者）其他人都在為您提出這個問題。我想我會完成剩下的一切。根據情況，我們正在嘗試交換成熟的資金並提前買入我們認為有很大升值空間的資金。像往常一樣，與我們購買的淨資產價值相比，這些股票非常便宜。每次我們制定計劃時，我們都會啟動一項新計劃並回購股票或購買其他股票。

So reducing debt and increase in irrigation, we are thinking. In the case of cattle, we are trying to rotate more in the feedlot time that it's more profitable and reducing the raising cattle time that is more long and less profitable. So selling, maybe raising and doing more fattening at the end on farms or feedlots.

因此，我們正在考慮減少債務並增加灌溉。就牛而言，我們正在嘗試增加飼養場的輪換時間，因為這樣更有利可圖，同時減少飼養時間，因為飼養時間較長但利潤較低。因此，最終可能會在農場或飼養場出售、飼養並進行進一步育肥。

So yes, rotating the land to make profitable basics in agriculture, you need to keep rotating. You have to give to the market what is really looking and to buy what everyone is hating and to put it in production again, and make, as we always look for a more than 10% yield in the combination of the real estate, operational and service as we are.

所以是的，輪作土地是為了在農業中獲得有利可圖的基礎，你需要不斷輪作。你必須向市場提供他們真正需要的東西，購買每個人都討厭的東西，然後重新投入生產，就像我們總是在尋找房地產、營運和服務相結合的 10% 以上的收益率一樣。

Good. I will go with the last one. How do you expect to deal with the $200 million maturity next year? Do you plan to tap the local capital market, the international capital markets?

好的。我將選擇最後一個。您預計如何處理明年到期的2億美元債務？您是否計劃進軍本地資本市場、國際資本市場？

What we have been doing in the last six months is taking advantage that there is more liquid in dollar terms in Argentina. There are new credit lines from banks refinancing of export that is for short term. So probably when you see -- why we have the short-term debt so high, we increased that part because it's efficient in terms of cost.

過去六個月我們一直在做的是利用阿根廷美元流動性更強的優勢。銀行提供了新的短期出口再融資信貸額度。所以當你看到為什麼我們的短期債務如此之高時，我們可能會增加這部分債務，因為從成本角度來看這是有效的。

But then, yes, typically, we finance our operations. And when you see the debt structure is a combination between the bank debt and the capital market. The international capital market, probably you need more size to go. What we learned from IRSA is that investors want at least $300 million size and Cresud, they don't need -- we don't need the $300 million. So probably it will be more in the local market than in the international capital market.

但是，是的，通常我們會為我們的營運提供資金。而你所看到的債務結構是銀行債務和資本市場的結合。國際資本市場，可能需要更大的規模才能走下去。我們從 IRSA 中了解到，投資者希望獲得至少 3 億美元的規模，而 Cresud 不需要——我們不需要 3 億美元。因此，它可能更多地出現在本地市場而不是國際資本市場。

With this, I think we --

有了這個，我想我們--

I'm sorry -- and also something important is the warrant. We have a warrant outstanding that expire in February last -- next year. No Cresud is February, next year. And Cresud will receive that warrant is steep in the money. So we -- it's very likely that we will receive proceeds from the warrant considering the warrant of Cresud and the warrant of IRSA that Cresud has, probably Cresud will receive around $27 million inflow in that moment.

很抱歉——還有一件重要的事情就是逮捕令。我們還有一張未執行的逮捕令，將於去年二月（也就是明年）到期。明年二月沒有 Cresud。而克雷蘇德將獲得價值不斐的逮捕令。因此，考慮到 Cresud 的認股權證和 Cresud 擁有的 IRSA 認股權證，我們很有可能從認股權證中獲得收益，Cresud 可能屆時將獲得約 2700 萬美元的流入。

Perfect. With this, we finish the presentation and the Q&A. Thank you for joining. I will now turn back to Alejandro for his final remarks.

完美的。至此，我們的示範和問答環節就結束了。感謝您的加入。現在我請亞歷杭德羅做最後的演講。

We are waiting for the last quarter. There, we're going to close the same rains, soybean and corn, some cotton. And we have a very good position in the region in the four countries, and we are very optimistic on the sector. And after this news of this weekend, the trading normalization is really relevant.

我們正在等待最後一個季度。在那裡，我們將關閉相同的雨季作物，包括大豆、玉米和一些棉花。我們在該地區的四個國家中都佔有非常有利的地位，我們對該行業非常樂觀。經過這個週末的消息，交易正常化確實具有現實意義。

We need economies to keep growing and every growth goes to better food consumption to the population that's keeping growing. So we are optimistic on the basis for the next quarter and for the longer term. So thank you very much, and we see you on October -- September, October, closing the annual balance sheet. Thanks a lot.

我們需要經濟持續成長，每一次成長都是為了滿足不斷增長的人口的更好的食物消費。因此，我們對下一季及長期前景持樂觀態度。非常感謝，我們將在十月、九月、十月結清年度資產負債表。多謝。