Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc (CPS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cooper Standard First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and the webcast will be available on the Cooper-Standard website for replay later today. I would now like to turn the call over to Roger Hickerson (sic) [Roger Hendriksen], Director of Investor Relations.

    早上好,女士們、先生們,歡迎參加庫珀標準 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)。謹此提醒,本次電話會議正在錄製中,網絡廣播將於今天晚些時候在 Cooper-Standard 網站上重播。我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監羅傑·希克森(Roger Hickerson,原文如此)[Roger Hendriksen]。

  • Roger S. Hendriksen - Director of IR

    Roger S. Hendriksen - Director of IR

  • Thanks, Gerald, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. The members of our leadership team who will be speaking with you on the call this morning are: Jeff Edwards, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jon Banas, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝杰拉爾德,大家早上好。我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。今天早上將在電話會議上與您交談的領導團隊成員包括: 董事長兼首席執行官傑夫·愛德華茲 (Jeff Edwards);和喬恩·巴納斯(Jon Banas),執行副總裁兼首席財務官。

  • Before we begin, I need to remind you that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. While they are made based on current factual information and certain assumptions and plans that management currently believes to be reasonable, these statements do involve risks and uncertainties. For more information on our forward-looking statements, we ask that you refer to Slide 3 of this presentation and the company's statements included in periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    在開始之前,我需要提醒您,本演示文稿包含前瞻性陳述。雖然這些陳述是基於當前的事實信息以及管理層目前認為合理的某些假設和計劃而做出的,但這些陳述確實涉及風險和不確定性。有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多信息,我們請您參閱本演示文稿的幻燈片 3 以及公司定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的聲明。

  • This presentation also contains non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix to the presentation. So with those formalities out of the way, I'll now turn the call over to Jeff Edwards.

    本演示文稿還包含非公認會計準則財務指標。非公認會計原則財務指標與其最直接可比的公認會計原則指標的調節表包含在演示文稿的附錄中。辦理完這些手續後,我現在將電話轉給傑夫·愛德華茲。

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Roger. Good morning, everyone. We certainly appreciate the opportunity to review our first quarter results and provide an update on our business and outlook going forward. To begin on Slide 5, we provide some highlights or key indicators of how our operations performed in the first quarter. I'm extremely pleased with our operational performance and the focus our teams have maintained in such a dynamic environment. We are continuing to execute at world-class levels in delivering quality products and services to our customers and in keeping our employees safe. In fact, we had one of our all-time best quarters in terms of product quality with 99% of our customer scorecards being green. In terms of new program launches, our customer scorecards were again excellent at 96% green for the quarter.

    謝謝,羅傑。大家,早安。我們當然很高興有機會回顧我們第一季度的業績並提供有關我們業務和未來前景的最新信息。從幻燈片 5 開始,我們提供了一些關於我們第一季度運營情況的亮點或關鍵指標。我對我們的運營績效以及我們的團隊在如此充滿活力的環境中保持的專注感到非常滿意。我們將繼續以世界一流的水平為客戶提供優質的產品和服務,並確保員工的安全。事實上,就產品質量而言,我們經歷了有史以來最好的季度之一,99% 的客戶記分卡都是綠色的。在新項目啟動方面,我們的客戶記分卡再次表現出色,本季度綠色率高達 96%。

  • Most importantly, the safety performance of our plants continues to be outstanding. Through the first 3 months of the year, we have a total incident rate of just 0.34 reportable incidents per 200,000 hours worked, well below the world-class benchmark of 0.57. We had 43 plants with a perfect safety record of 0 reported incidents in the quarter. I want to recognize the teams at these plants for their continued commitment and leadership as we continue to strive as a company toward our ultimate safety goal of 0 incidents. I could not be more proud of our global team for their continued focus, dedication and world-class achievements in maintaining a safe workplace for everyone, every day.

    最重要的是,我們工廠的安全性能依然出色。今年前 3 個月,我們每 20 萬工作小時的可報告事故總數僅為 0.34 起,遠低於 0.57 起的世界一流基準。我們有 43 家工廠在本季度擁有 0 起事故報告的完美安全記錄。我想對這些工廠的團隊表示認可,感謝他們在我們作為一家公司繼續努力實現零事故這一最終安全目標的過程中所做出的持續承諾和領導力。我為我們的全球團隊感到無比自豪,他們在每天為每個人維護安全的工作場所方面持續專注、奉獻精神並取得世界一流的成就。

  • While challenges such as erratic production schedules, high inflation and tight labor markets continue to impact our industry, we're doing everything we can to offset these challenges and improve our overall results. We're continuing our focus on reducing costs, although year-over-year cost reductions are getting harder to achieve. And as often said in our industry, "you can't cost-cut your way to prosperity". Even so, we are continuing our efforts to be as lean as possible.

    雖然不穩定的生產計劃、高通脹和緊張的勞動力市場等挑戰繼續影響我們的行業,但我們正在盡一切努力來抵消這些挑戰並改善我們的整體業績。我們將繼續致力於降低成本,儘管逐年降低成本變得越來越困難。正如我們行業中常說的那樣,“你無法通過削減成本來實現繁榮”。即便如此,我們仍在繼續努力盡可能精簡。

  • Our manufacturing and purchasing teams were able to deliver $8 million in savings through lean initiatives and improving efficiencies in the quarter. These savings, combined with some year-over-year improvements in volume and mix and enhanced commercial agreements on pricing and cost recoveries, enabled us to increase our gross margin for the quarter by 94% over the same period a year ago. So we have made modest progress with more anticipated to come later this year and next.

    我們的製造和採購團隊通過精益計劃和提高效率在本季度節省了 800 萬美元。這些節省,再加上銷量和產品組合的同比改善以及定價和成本回收方面增強的商業協議,使我們本季度的毛利率比去年同期增加了 94%。因此,我們已經取得了一定的進展,預計今年晚些時候和明年將會取得更多進展。

  • Finally, we're continuing to win new business awards, especially on electric vehicle programs, as a result of our strong customer relationships and the value we provide through our advanced engineering and design capabilities, innovative technical solutions and world-class service. In the first quarter, our customers awarded us $18 million in net new business awards on their upcoming electric vehicle platforms.

    最後,由於我們強大的客戶關係以及我們通過先進的工程和設計能力、創新的技術解決方案和世界一流的服務提供的價值,我們繼續贏得新的業務獎項,特別是在電動汽車項目方面。第一季度,我們的客戶為其即將推出的電動汽車平台授予了 1800 萬美元的淨新業務獎勵。

  • Moving to Slide 6. Another indication of our customer relationships, valued technology and world-class service are the product and service awards we frequently receive. We were very pleased to once again be named as a "Supplier of the Year" for General Motors, one of our top global customers, and I think probably one of the most prestigious awards in our industry. While the award was announced and presented during the first quarter, it's really an annual award that is reflective of our performance throughout the past year. This is the sixth consecutive year that we've achieved this GM award, and we look forward to continuing and expanding our relationship with them, going forward.

    轉向幻燈片 6。我們經常獲得的產品和服務獎項是我們客戶關係、寶貴技術和世界一流服務的另一個體現。我們非常高興再次被通用汽車公司(我們的全球頂級客戶之一)評為“年度供應商”,我認為這可能是我們行業中最負盛名的獎項之一。雖然該獎項是在第一季度宣布和頒發的,但它實際上是一個年度獎項,反映了我們過去一年的表現。這是我們連續第六年獲得通用汽車獎,我們期待著繼續並擴大與他們的關係,繼續前進。

  • Now, let me turn the call over to Jon to discuss the financial details of the quarter.

    現在,讓我將電話轉給喬恩,討論本季度的財務細節。

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In the next few slides, I'll provide some details on our financial results for the quarter and discuss our cash flows, liquidity and aspects of our balance sheet. On Slide 8, we show a summary of our results for the first quarter of 2023 with comparisons to the same period last year. First quarter 2023 sales were $682.5 million, an increase of 11.3% compared to the first quarter of 2022. The increase was driven by favorable volume and mix, primarily in North America and Europe and our enhanced commercial agreements. These were partially offset by unfavorable foreign currency exchange. Gross profit for the first quarter was $41.8 million or 6.1% of sales. This compares to a gross profit of $21.5 million or just 3.5% of sales in the first quarter of 2022.

    謝謝杰夫,大家早上好。在接下來的幾張幻燈片中,我將提供有關本季度財務業績的一些詳細信息,並討論我們的現金流、流動性和資產負債表的各個方面。在幻燈片 8 上,我們展示了 2023 年第一季度的業績摘要,並與去年同期進行了比較。 2023 年第一季度銷售額為 6.825 億美元,比 2022 年第一季度增長 11.3%。這一增長是由有利的銷量和組合(主要在北美和歐洲)以及我們增強的商業協議推動的。這些被不利的外匯兌換所部分​​抵消。第一季度毛利潤為 4180 萬美元,佔銷售額的 6.1%。相比之下,2022 年第一季度的毛利潤為 2150 萬美元,僅佔銷售額的 3.5%。

  • Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $12.5 million compared to $100,000 in the first quarter of 2022. The year-over-year improvement was driven primarily by favorable volume and mix, cost recoveries and favorable price adjustments and lean savings initiatives, all partially offset by ongoing inflation headwinds in areas such as energy and labor costs as well as the impact of unfavorable foreign exchange. We made good progress in our commercial negotiations to recover inflation and establish sustainable pricing in the quarter, and we are beginning to see the positive impact on our results.

    第一季度調整後 EBITDA 為 1,250 萬美元,而 2022 年第一季度為 100,000 美元。同比改善主要得益於有利的銷量和組合、成本回收、有利的價格調整和精益節約舉措,所有這些都被部分抵消能源和勞動力成本等領域持續存在的通脹逆風以及不利外彙的影響。我們在本季度恢復通脹和建立可持續定價的商業談判中取得了良好進展,我們開始看到對我們業績的積極影響。

  • However, certain negotiations that we expected would have been concluded in the first quarter have carried into the second. As we continue our focus on achieving sustainable price, we expect more of these negotiations will be successfully concluded in the second quarter and beyond. And we anticipate this will drive improvements in top line growth and margin expansion in the remaining quarters of the year.

    然而,我們預計將在第一季度完成的某些談判已經進行到了第二季度。隨著我們繼續致力於實現可持續價格,我們預計更多此類談判將在第二季度及以後成功完成。我們預計這將推動今年剩餘季度的營收增長和利潤率擴張。

  • On a U.S. GAAP basis, net loss for the quarter was $130.4 million compared to a net loss of $61.4 million in the first quarter of 2022. The current quarter included an $81.9 million loss on refinancing and extinguishment of debt related to the transactions that we closed early in the first quarter. The first quarter 2023 net loss also included $2.4 million in restructuring costs. Excluding these items and the related tax impact, adjusted net loss for the first quarter was $46.2 million or $2.68 per diluted share compared to an adjusted net loss of $51.4 million or $3 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2022.

    根據美國公認會計原則,本季度淨虧損為 1.304 億美元,而 2022 年第一季度淨虧損為 6140 萬美元。本季度包括與我們已完成的交易相關的再融資和債務清償損失 8190 萬美元第一季度初。 2023 年第一季度淨虧損還包括 240 萬美元的重組成本。排除這些項目和相關稅收影響,第一季度調整後淨虧損為 4620 萬美元,即稀釋後每股 2.68 美元,而 2022 年第一季度調整後淨虧損為 5140 萬美元,即稀釋後每股 3 美元。

  • The year-over-year improvement resulted primarily from improved gross profit, partially offset by higher interest expense. Our capital expenditures in the first quarter totaled $29.3 million or 4.3% of sales compared to $32.3 million or 5.3% of sales in the same period a year ago. We continue to have a disciplined focus on capital investments, and we're committed to keeping CapEx at around 3% of sales for the full year.

    同比改善主要歸因於毛利潤的改善,但部分被利息支出的增加所抵消。第一季度的資本支出總計 2,930 萬美元,佔銷售額的 4.3%,而去年同期的資本支出為 3,230 萬美元,佔銷售額的 5.3%。我們繼續嚴格關注資本投資,並致力於將全年資本支出保持在銷售額的 3% 左右。

  • Moving to Slide 9. The charts on Slide 9 provide additional insights into some of the key factors impacting our results for the first quarter of 2023. For revenue, favorable volume and mix, including net customer price adjustments, increased sales by $86 million versus the first quarter of 2022. Improving customer production volume year-over-year was the biggest driver with customer cost recoveries and price adjustments in the quarter, also benefiting the volume and mix category. Foreign exchange, mainly related to the Euro, the Chinese RMB and the Canadian dollar reduced sales by $17 million versus the same period last year.

    轉向幻燈片 9。幻燈片 9 上的圖表提供了對影響我們 2023 年第一季度業績的一些關鍵因素的更多見解。就收入而言,有利的銷量和組合(包括淨客戶價格調整)使銷售額比 2023 年第一季度增加了 8600 萬美元。 2022 年第一季度。客戶產量同比提高是本季度客戶成本回收和價格調整的最大推動力,也有利於銷量和組合類別。外匯,主要與歐元、人民幣和加元有關,銷售額比去年同期減少了1700萬美元。

  • For adjusted EBITDA, volume, mix and net pricing, including the recoveries and price adjustments drove a combined $39 million of improvement for the quarter. Lean initiatives in purchasing and manufacturing efficiency contributed $8 million year-over-year. These positive contributors were partially offset by certain ongoing headwinds in the quarter. General inflation, including energy, salaries, wages and transportation and other costs reduced adjusted EBITDA by $18 million in the quarter. The impact of foreign exchange was $8 million, while material costs were higher by $3 million.

    對於調整後的 EBITDA、銷量、組合和淨定價(包括回收和價格調整),本季度總計實現了 3900 萬美元的改善。採購和製造效率方面的精益舉措同比貢獻了 800 萬美元。這些積極貢獻被本季度持續存在的某些不利因素部分抵消。包括能源、工資、工資和運輸及其他成本在內的總體通脹導致本季度調整後 EBITDA 減少 1800 萬美元。外彙的影響為 800 萬美元,而材料成本則增加了 300 萬美元。

  • Moving to Slide 10. We are pleased to have started the year with positive cash from operations and positive free cash flow. Cash provided by operations was approximately $30 million in the first quarter of 2023, driven primarily by improved sales volume, operating performance and working capital efficiencies. As mentioned earlier, CapEx was approximately $29 million, primarily reflecting the timing of program launch activity. Free cash flow was approximately $1 million in the quarter ending March 31, 2023. With the improved volume and operating leverage we are generating, we ended March with a cash balance of approximately $106 million.

    轉向幻燈片 10。我們很高興以正的運營現金流和正的自由現金流開始了這一年。 2023 年第一季度,運營提供的現金約為 3000 萬美元,這主要是由於銷量、運營績效和營運資金效率的提高。如前所述,資本支出約為 2900 萬美元,主要反映了計劃啟動活動的時間。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的季度,自由現金流約為 100 萬美元。隨著我們產生的銷量和運營槓桿的改善,我們 3 月底的現金餘額約為 1.06 億美元。

  • Combined with $149 million of availability on our revolving credit facility, which was undrawn at quarter end, we had solid total liquidity of approximately $255 million as of March 31, 2023. Based on our current outlook and expectations for light vehicle production, commercial support in the way of sustainable pricing from our customers and demand for our products, we believe our current cash on hand, expected cash generation and access to flexible credit facilities will provide sufficient resources to support our ongoing operations.

    加上我們在季度末未提取的循環信貸額度中的 1.49 億美元,截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日,我們擁有約 2.55 億美元的穩定總流動性。根據我們目前對輕型汽車生產的展望和預期,根據我們的客戶的可持續定價方式和對我們產品的需求,我們相信我們當前的手頭現金、預期的現金產生和獲得靈活的信貸便利將為我們的持續運營提​​供足夠的資源。

  • That concludes my prepared remarks. So let me turn it back over to Jeff.

    我準備好的發言就到此結束。所以讓我把它轉回給傑夫。

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Jon. Over the next few minutes, I'd like to provide you with an update on some of our commercial initiatives that are intended to ensure that we will be adequately compensated for the value we offer our customers. I will also highlight some of our strategic initiatives that we believe are moving us forward to significant transformation as a company, significantly elevating our ability to deliver even further value that our customers need and are willing to pay for. Then I'll conclude with a few comments on our outlook for the remainder of the year. So please turn to Slide 12.

    謝謝,喬恩。在接下來的幾分鐘內,我想向您介紹我們的一些商業計劃的最新情況,這些計劃旨在確保我們為客戶提供的價值得到充分的補償。我還將重點介紹我們的一些戰略舉措,我們相信這些舉措正在推動我們作為一家公司邁向重大轉型,顯著提高我們提供客戶需要並願意支付的進一步價值的能力。最後,我將對我們今年剩餘時間的前景發表一些評論。所以請翻到幻燈片 12。

  • We're continuing to work collaboratively with all of our customers to recover incremental costs related to inflationary pressures and establish sustainable pricing that will enhance quality of earnings and value creation over the long-term. During the quarter, we further limited our risk exposure from commodity and material costs by initiating indexed-based agreements with additional customers. As it relates to commodity volatility, we believe we are now better positioned than we've ever been before. As it relates to non-commodity inflation and sustainable pricing, we're continuing negotiations with all customers.

    我們將繼續與所有客戶合作,收回與通脹壓力相關的增量成本,並建立可持續的定價,以長期提高盈利質量和價值創造。在本季度,我們通過與更多客戶啟動基於指數的協議,進一步限制了商品和材料成本的風險敞口。由於它與大宗商品波動有關,我們相信我們現在比以往任何時候都處於更好的位置。由於它涉及非商品通脹和可持續定價,我們正在繼續與所有客戶進行談判。

  • Negotiations have been constructive and given the value that our products and services provide them, our customers have been very supportive. While negotiations are ongoing, we expect to achieve further positive outcomes that will drive improving financial results, going forward. We have also been working with our customers to improve cash flow. As part of the progress to-date, we've been able to implement more favorable terms on the trade receivables and on the repayment of customer-owned tooling. We're making solid progress and anticipate further good news in coming quarters as these agreements are implemented.

    談判是富有建設性的,考慮到我們的產品和服務為其提供的價值,我們的客戶非常支持。在談判正在進行的同時,我們預計將取得進一步的積極成果,從而推動未來財務業績的改善。我們還一直與客戶合作改善現金流。作為迄今為止取得的進展的一部分,我們已經能夠對貿易應收款和客戶自有模具的償還實施更優惠的條款。隨著這些協議的實施,我們正在取得紮實的進展,並預計未來幾個季度會出現更多好消息。

  • Turning to Slide 13. So part of what gives us confidence in our ongoing commercial discussions is the added value and expertise we provide our customers through the strategic integration of advanced digital tools in our Engineering and Design process. By using tools such as Design by Analysis, Virtual Validation and our AI-based formula link (sic) [Fomulink] tool, the compound -- for compound development, we significantly sped up our overall design process, and we've reduced our engineering costs. These advancements have been critically important in the rapid industry transition to new energy vehicles. As we're now able to design and deliver highly complex systems and optimized technical solutions faster. We are winning new business as a result. In addition, we're increasingly being recognized by our customers as a valued technology partner in design, functionality and sustainability.

    轉向幻燈片 13。因此,讓我們對正在進行的商業討論充滿信心的部分原因是我們通過在工程和設計流程中戰略性集成先進數字工具為客戶提供的附加值和專業知識。通過使用分析設計、虛擬驗證和我們基於人工智能的公式鏈接(原文如此)[Fomulink] 工具、化合物——用於化合物開發,我們顯著加快了整體設計流程,並減少了工程量成本。這些進步對於行業向新能源汽車的快速轉型至關重要。因為我們現在能夠更快地設計和交付高度複雜的系統和優化的技術解決方案。我們因此贏得了新業務。此外,我們越來越被客戶認可為設計、功能和可持續性方面的重要技術合作夥伴。

  • We've also invested in Advanced Proprietary Digital tools to enhance manufacturing efficiency. Our Pulse OEE system, our Wireless Asset Tracker and Liveline, which is our AI-based Automated Process Control System are a few examples. These are enabling us to reduce scrap, improve efficiency in our secondary operations, plan and conduct maintenance more effectively, and really improve our overall asset utilization. Combined with our suite of digital tools, we've been able to partially -- as a partial driver of the reductions in our SG&A expense and fixed manufacturing costs over the past few years, but we believe there is even more opportunity ahead as we leverage these advanced tools and technical capabilities to grow and optimize our business.

    我們還投資了先進的專有數字工具來提高製造效率。我們的 Pulse OEE 系統、無線資產跟踪器和 Liveline(基於人工智能的自動化過程控制系統)只是其中的幾個例子。這些使我們能夠減少廢品,提高二次作業的效率,更有效地計劃和進行維護,並真正提高我們的整體資產利用率。結合我們的數字工具套件,我們已經能夠在過去幾年中部分推動我們的銷售管理費用和固定製造成本的減少,但我們相信,隨著我們利用這些工具,未來還有更多的機會這些先進的工具和技術能力可以發展和優化我們的業務。

  • They're allowing us to expand into adjacent and complementary product lines as we are now doing in our fluid business. And they're also enabling us to provide incremental value for our customers through more highly advanced, technically sophisticated products and services, which we believe will support more sustainable pricing, moving forward. Consistent with our company mission, we believe that by becoming the first choice of the stakeholders we serve, in this case, our customers, we will ultimately maximize our value creation opportunities.

    它們使我們能夠擴展到相鄰和互補的產品線,就像我們現在在流體業務中所做的那樣。它們還使我們能夠通過更先進、技術更複雜的產品和服務為客戶提供增量價值,我們相信這將支持更可持續的定價,向前發展。與我們公司的使命相一致,我們相信,通過成為我們所服務的利益相關者(在本例中為我們的客戶)的首選,我們最終將最大化我們的價值創造機會。

  • Turning to Slide 14. As you know, each year we publish our Corporate Responsibility Report to provide details on the way we are servicing various stakeholders. This year's report, which we have titled "Creating Sustainable Solutions Together" will be available online within the next 2 weeks. The report will provide you with many insights regarding not only what we do, but who we are, and the values that guide us as individuals and as a company every day. We highly recommend you check out the report. It will be certainly worth your time.

    轉向幻燈片 14。如您所知,我們每年都會發布企業責任報告,以提供有關我們為各利益相關者提供服務的方式的詳細信息。今年的報告,我們將其命名為“共同創建可持續解決方案”,將在未來兩週內在線發布。該報告將為您提供許多見解,不僅涉及我們的業務,還涉及我們是誰,以及每天指導我們作為個人和公司的價值觀。我們強烈建議您查看該報告。這絕對值得您花時間。

  • Turning to Slide 15. Now I will conclude our prepared remarks this morning with a few thoughts on our outlook for the rest of 2023. First, I want to highlight that we fully expect to achieve significantly improved financial results in each of the remaining quarters of the year. Our initial plan and full year guidance anticipated that the first quarter would be the toughest, given the expected timing of our commercial settlements. So, that is consistent with our plan. Our financial results are very dependent upon industry production volumes, and specifically, the production volumes from our top customers in key platforms in each region.

    轉向幻燈片 15。現在,我將結束今天早上準備好的發言,並對 2023 年剩餘時間的前景進行一些思考。首先,我想強調,我們完全期望在 2023 年剩餘的每個季度實現顯著改善的財務業績。那一年。考慮到我們商業和解的預期時間,我們的初步計劃和全年指導預計第一季度將是最艱難的。所以,這與我們的計劃是一致的。我們的財務業績很大程度上取決於行業產量,特別是每個地區主要平台的頂級客戶的產量。

  • We continue to see a lot of change in industry production forecasts and customer production schedules. So, that certainly makes planning a bit difficult. But our current outlook for production volume remains positive and anticipates continued modest year-over-year growth overall, driven primarily by increases in Europe and in North America. The outlook for inflation is a moderate headwind. We currently expect moderate inflationary pressures will continue through the remainder of the year and costs will remain at elevated levels. Recent reductions in global oil production and tight labor availability in certain markets may represent inflationary risks to our outlook if they continue.

    我們繼續看到行業生產預測和客戶生產計劃發生很大變化。所以,這肯定會讓計劃變得有點困難。但我們目前對產量的前景仍然樂觀,並預計總體上將繼續溫和增長,這主要是由歐洲和北美的增長推動的。通脹前景是溫和的逆風。我們目前預計溫和的通脹壓力將持續到今年剩餘時間,成本將保持在較高水平。最近全球石油產量的減少和某些市場勞動力供應的緊張如果持續下去,可能會給我們的前景帶來通脹風險。

  • On the commercial side, we expect to successfully advance customer negotiations in the remainder of the year to further offset inflation and establish sustainable pricing in all of our segments. As we saw in the first quarter, however, the timing for closing any customer agreement is certainly more difficult to predict. Overall, our outlook for 2023 remains very positive. We will plan to give a more detailed update and formal guidance as we typically do, in conjunction with our second quarter results.

    在商業方面,我們預計將在今年剩餘時間內成功推進客戶談判,以進一步抵消通貨膨脹並在我們所有部門建立可持續的定價。然而,正如我們在第一季度看到的那樣,完成任何客戶協議的時間肯定更難以預測。總體而言,我們對 2023 年的前景仍然非常樂觀。我們將計劃像往常一樣結合第二季度的業績提供更詳細的更新和正式指導。

  • I want to thank our global team of employees for their continued dedication and their commitment to excellence and delivering value for our customers and all stakeholders. I also want to thank our customers for their continued trust, confidence and support in managing through this challenging industry environment and for their increasing recognition of the value of our products, technologies and services we provide them. I believe we are approaching an inflection point in the relatively near-term as we benefit from improved volume and enhanced commercial agreements with sustainable price increases. Over the longer term, we believe we will drive increasing value by continuing to transform our products, our services and our company, with advanced digital tools and technology that meet and exceed the demands of today's mobility industry.

    我要感謝我們的全球員工團隊的持續奉獻和對卓越的承諾,並為我們的客戶和所有利益相關者創造價值。我還要感謝我們的客戶在這個充滿挑戰的行業環境中持續的信任、信心和支持,以及他們對我們為他們提供的產品、技術和服務的價值的日益認可。我相信,我們正在相對近期內接近一個拐點,因為我們受益於銷量的增加和商業協議的加強以及可持續的價格上漲。從長遠來看,我們相信,通過利用滿足並超越當今移動行業需求的先進數字工具和技術,繼續改造我們的產品、服務和公司,我們將推動價值不斷增長。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks, so let's open the call for Q&A.

    我們準備好的發言到此結束,讓我們開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Michael Ward of The Benchmark Company.

    謝謝。 (操作員說明)。我們的第一個問題來自基準公司的邁克爾·沃德。

  • Michael Patrick Ward - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Michael Patrick Ward - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Thank you. Just a question on the commercial agreements. Is [sum] of what we're seeing over the last 3, 4, 5 quarters is just the maturing of the process? When you say more sustainable pricing, I assume that's referring to just more consistent commercial agreements where you don't have to have these big [lumps of waiting]. Is that fair?

    謝謝。只是關於商業協議的問題。我們在過去 3、4、5 個季度所看到的[總和]是否只是流程的成熟?當你說更可持續的定價時,我認為指的是更一致的商業協議,你不必有這些大的[等待的過程]。這公平嗎?

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • Mike, this is Jeff. Thanks for the question. So, I'd put it in 2 buckets. One is the index-based price agreements that we now have virtually with every customer in the world. So that's a raw material approach for recovery that we haven't had in the past. And as raw material prices go up, we recover, as they go down, we give some of that back to the OEM. The sustainable size and...

    邁克,這是傑夫。謝謝你的提問。所以,我會把它放在兩個桶裡。其中之一是我們現在幾乎與世界上每一位客戶簽訂的基於指數的價格協議。因此,這是我們過去沒有採用過的原材料回收方法。當原材料價格上漲時,我們會恢復,當原材料價格下降時,我們會將其中的一部分返還給原始設備製造商。可持續的規模和...

  • Michael Patrick Ward - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Michael Patrick Ward - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • So that deal is negotiated. Okay, so that deal is negotiated, you don't have to redo it every quarter or anything like that?

    因此,該交易已通過談判達成。好的,協議已經協商完畢,你不必每個季度都重做一次或類似的事情?

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • It's ongoing. It's already negotiated. It's in place for all contracts going forward.

    它正在進行中。已經協商好了。它適用於未來的所有合同。

  • Related to your second question regarding sustainable pricing, that's just real simple, we have prices out there in all regions that don't allow us to get a return on the investments that we've made. And we're back in with each customer renegotiating those prices on existing product. And certainly, that impacts the price of the new business going forward, much easier there because we've already won that business at higher price. So it's really about getting price increases to offset all the other inflation that's taken place and also the volume that hasn't been there as forecasted. So that's really what we're doing to make sure that Europe, North America and Asia all return to these sustainable levels of profitability, so that we don't have to go back in every year and talk about price.

    關於你關於可持續定價的第二個問題,這真的很簡單,我們在所有地區都有價格,不允許我們從我們所做的投資中獲得回報。我們會與每位客戶重新協商現有產品的價格。當然,這會影響未來新業務的價格,在那裡更容易,因為我們已經以更高的價格贏得了該業務。因此,這實際上是為了讓價格上漲來抵消所有其他已經發生的通貨膨脹以及未達到預期的數量。因此,這確實是我們正在做的事情,以確保歐洲、北美和亞洲都恢復到這些可持續的盈利水平,這樣我們就不必每年都回去討論價格。

  • Michael Patrick Ward - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Michael Patrick Ward - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Yes, yes. Okay. And based on the timing -- or based on the regional performance on the EBITDA level, it looks like Europe was probably the one that was slower on the commercial negotiations. Is that fair?

    是的是的。好的。根據時間安排,或者根據 EBITDA 水平的區域表現,歐洲可能是商業談判進展較慢的地區。這公平嗎?

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I would say this about Europe. I mean, the timing is probably fair because we certainly have concluded several that didn't allow us to book it in the first quarter. I will say that. What I will tell you on Europe going forward, Mike, and we've mentioned this here quite often, that we were set to burn close to $100 million in cash in Europe over the next 2 years, if we didn't address sustainable pricing in Europe. And as I [sat] here today, I'm very confident that, that's not going to happen. The negotiations are going well. And our customers are proving that we're a valued supplier in Europe, and I really look forward to those results hitting our bottom line in the second half of the year.

    是的。關於歐洲,我會這麼說。我的意思是,時機可能是公平的,因為我們確實已經得出了一些不允許我們在第一季度預訂的結論。我會這麼說。關於歐洲的未來,邁克,我要告訴你的是,我們在這裡經常提到這一點,如果我們不解決可持續定價問題,未來兩年我們將在歐洲燒掉近 1 億美元的現金在歐洲。當我今天[坐]在這裡時,我非常有信心,這不會發生。談判進展順利。我們的客戶正在證明我們是歐洲一家有價值的供應商,我真的很期待這些結果在今年下半年達到我們的底線。

  • Michael Patrick Ward - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Michael Patrick Ward - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Well, that's a big number. And in Europe, is that part of the delta -- well, from Q4 to Q1, currency year-over-year was an $8 million. How did currency stack up relative to Q4? And was that all in Europe?

    嗯,這是一個很大的數字。在歐洲,是三角洲的一部分——嗯,從第四季度到第一季度,貨幣同比增長了 800 萬美元。貨幣相對於第四季度的表現如何?這都是在歐洲嗎?

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Mike, this is Jon. It wasn't all in Europe, sequentially, Q1 to Q4, but the euro was a significant driver when you look at the results that we posted in the end of 2021 -- sorry, 2022 until the first quarter of this year. Inflation was a big driver continuing, obviously. But the FX with the euro and other currencies driving higher sales with negative earnings pull-through was actually a big part of the sequential bridge.

    邁克,這是喬恩。從第一季度到第四季度,這並不全都在歐洲,但當你查看我們在 2021 年底發布的結果時(抱歉,從 2022 年到今年第一季度),歐元是一個重要的推動因素。顯然,通貨膨脹是持續的一個重要推動因素。但歐元和其他貨幣的匯率推動銷售增加,但盈利拉低,這實際上是連續橋樑的重要組成部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Brian DiRubbio by Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的布萊恩·迪魯比奧 (Brian DiRubbio)。

  • Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

    Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

  • A couple of questions for you. Jon, first, with the change in the terms that you -- that we talked about with AR and tooling, what kind of release could we see from working capital this year?

    有幾個問題要問你。 Jon,首先,隨著我們談論 AR 和工具的術語發生變化,今年我們可以從營運資金中看到什麼樣的釋放?

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • We're continuing -- I'll start with tooling, Brian. Thanks for the question. We're looking to continue the efforts that we've been talking about for the last couple of quarters as far as not using Cooper's balance sheet to fund our customers' assets. And we've been running about $100 million of customer-owned tools that sit in our balance sheet until they meet the requirements to actually bill once they're finally approved and they're ready to start production.

    我們正在繼續——我將從工具開始,Brian。謝謝你的提問。我們希望繼續我們過去幾個季度一直在談論的努力,只要不使用庫珀的資產負債表來為我們客戶的資產提供資金。我們一直在運行價值約 1 億美元的客戶自有工具,這些工具位於我們的資產負債表中,直到它們最終獲得批准並準備開始生產後,滿足實際計費的要求。

  • So the efforts there have been to implement progressive payments along the way, whether that's upfront deposits before we kick the tools off or whether it's interim milestones, whereby we get reimbursed on a regular basis for monies that are spent to-date, and we don't have to wait 12 months, 18 months or even longer to get reimbursed by our customers. So the global team is continuing to drive that number down, but you can think about certainly a double-digit increase in that $100 million -- decrease -- sorry, decrease in that $100 million that we're looking to drive and unlock towards the end of this year. We're making incremental progress every day. So I won't point to anything here on our Q1 results, but you should see a benefit as we close the year out.

    因此,我們一直在努力實施累進付款,無論是我們啟動工具之前的預付款,還是臨時里程碑,我們都會定期償還迄今為止所花費的資金,而且我們不這樣做不必等待 12 個月、18 個月甚至更長時間才能獲得客戶的報銷。因此,全球團隊正在繼續降低這個數字,但你可以想像這 1 億美元肯定會出現兩位數的增長——減少——抱歉,我們希望推動和解鎖的那 1 億美元會減少。今年年底。我們每天都在進步。因此,我不會在第一季度的業績中指出任何內容,但當我們結束這一年時,您應該會看到好處。

  • From a customer term standpoint, we are continuing to see that benefit cash flows and unlock working capital, certainly. In Q1, we always have a working capital outflow when it comes to the sales ramp. We're purchasing more inventory, because we are able to [have laid] it down at year-end, but then also with the sales rise, you are putting an incremental receivables on the balance sheet as of March 31. So seasonality would typically have you seeing those be a usage of working capital. And this is no exception, but it has been mitigated by the terms changes that Jeff alluded to, and we'll continue to see that in the next couple of quarters.

    從客戶角度來看,我們肯定會繼續看到這有利於現金流並釋放營運資金。在第一季度,當涉及到銷售增長時,我們總是會出現營運資金流出。我們正在購買更多庫存,因為我們能夠在年底將其存放起來,但隨著銷售額的增長,截至 3 月 31 日,您將在資產負債表上增加應收賬款。因此,季節性通常會您是否看到這些是對營運資金的使用?這也不例外,但傑夫提到的條款變化已經緩解了這種情況,我們將在接下來的幾個季度繼續看到這一點。

  • Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

    Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

  • So I guess, I'll maybe put it this way and I understand the seasonality, are we expecting to see a source of cash from receivables as well in '23? Or is that something that may take a little bit longer to realize on a cash basis?

    所以我想,我可能會這樣說,並且我了解季節性,我們是否期望在 23 年也能看到來自應收賬款的現金來源?或者說這可能需要更長的時間才能在現金基礎上實現?

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, it remains to be seen whether that continues out towards the end of the year into the following. I think, the biggest benefits we'll see this year are related to tooling and inventory reductions.

    嗯,這種情況是否會持續到今年年底到明年還有待觀察。我認為,今年我們將看到的最大好處與工具和庫存減少有關。

  • Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

    Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

  • Got it. Fair enough. And then as we're looking at the progression, obviously, better than last year. But what does the company really need to have [happen], for it to get back up to historic profitability. Supply chains are a little bit better. I know, inflation is still a problem, but trying to understand how quickly can you get to sort of a sustainable rate of EBITDA and cash generation? Is that something you think is achievable in the next 12 months? Or is that going to take a little bit longer?

    知道了。很公平。然後,當我們看到進展時,顯然比去年更好。但該公司真正需要[發生]什麼才能恢復到歷史性的盈利能力。供應鏈稍微好一些。我知道,通貨膨脹仍然是一個問題,但試圖了解您能多快達到可持續的 EBITDA 和現金生成率?您認為在未來 12 個月內可以實現這一目標嗎?還是需要更長的時間?

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • Brian, it's Jeff. Clearly, the sustainable price negotiations that we're going through as we speak and that we expect to conclude here in the second quarter are the primary foundation, if you will, to get Europe, especially Europe, back to a level of generating positive cash flow. Clearly, when you see the industry operating at 85 million units, you see North America I guess, struggling to get to 15 and sustainable -- a sustainable 15 million units. Those numbers, we all want to see them go substantially higher. Clearly, the global volumes probably need to be somewhere closer to $100 million to be considered a good year. And I think here in North America, we'd all like to see by those 17 million or 18 million unit years. That would certainly return us to double-digit ROIC and double-digit EBITDA everywhere.

    布萊恩,是傑夫。顯然,我們正在進行的可持續價格談判以及我們預計將在第二季度結束的談判是讓歐洲,特別是歐洲恢復產生正現金水平的主要基礎。流動。顯然,當你看到該行業的運營量達到 8500 萬台時,我想你會看到北美正在努力達到 15 個且可持續的水平——可持續的 1500 萬台。我們都希望看到這些數字大幅上升。顯然,全球銷量可能需要接近 1 億美元才能被視為好年份。我認為在北美,我們都希望看到 1700 萬或 1800 萬單位年。這肯定會讓我們在所有地方恢復兩位數的投入資本回報率和兩位數的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤。

  • But in the short term, because volume is not expected to be quite that strong. Our focus is, continue to take costs out of the business where we can and negotiate all of these sustainable price increases so that we're cash positive everywhere, and then we're back to a level of profitability that we don't have to keep talking about each quarter.

    但在短期內,因為成交量預計不會那麼強勁。我們的重點是,繼續盡可能地降低業務成本,並就所有這些可持續的價格上漲進行談判,以便我們在任何地方都有現金,然後我們就回到了我們不需要的盈利水平繼續談論每個季度。

  • Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

    Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

  • Got it. And just a final question. You mentioned material costs were a headwind of about $3 million. Do we see that becoming a tailwind at any point this year or -- are we just going to be just trying to catch up throughout the year?

    知道了。最後一個問題。您提到材料成本是大約 300 萬美元的不利因素。我們是否認為今年的任何時候都會成為順風,或者我們是否只是想在全年中迎頭趕上?

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Brian, it's Jon. When we came into the year, we thought of may be a very minor headwind overall, single digits in terms of inflationary pressures on the commodity side for the whole year because we knew we would be facing a bit of a lag effect on some of the purchase commodities here in Q1, and you're seeing the impact of that. There is some good news when you look ahead on certain of the inputs made perhaps on the rubber side, but we're also starting to see signs of pressure in the metals area in the way of cold rolled steel, so there could be some volatility. We don't see anything significant at this point, but we're obviously watchful of where those trends are heading. And the good news here is, in many cases, we do have the customer support and the way of the index contracts that will help recover a significant portion of any commodity inflation that does come our way.

    布萊恩,我是喬恩。當我們進入這一年時,我們認為全年大宗商品方面的通脹壓力可能會出現非常小的逆風,即個位數,因為我們知道我們將面臨一些滯後效應。在第一季度購買商品,您就會看到其影響。當你展望橡膠方面的某些投入時,有一些好消息,但我們也開始看到冷軋鋼等金屬領域面臨壓力的跡象,因此可能會出現一些波動。目前我們還沒有看到任何重要的事情,但我們顯然正在關注這些趨勢的走向。好消息是,在許多情況下,我們確實擁有客戶支持和指數合約的方式,這將有助於恢復我們所遇到的任何商品通脹的很大一部分。

  • Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

    Brian Vincent DiRubbio - Former Research Analyst

  • Great. Appreciate all the thoughts.

    偉大的。欣賞所有的想法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Sheffield of Beach Point Capital Management.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Beach Point Capital Management 的 Patrick Sheffield。

  • Patrick Sheffield - MD

    Patrick Sheffield - MD

  • Could you repeat how much you said you were going to burn in Europe over the next 2 years? I missed that comment.

    您能重複一下您所說的未來兩年要在歐洲燒錢多少嗎?我錯過了那個評論。

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Patrick, it's Jeff. So what I said was our business plan that we were looking at, I guess, 6 months ago, right, when we first compiled that, it showed us in consecutive years, burning $40 million to $45 million each year. So what I was saying to Mike is that we were going to burn $100 million in cash over a 2-year period in Europe if we didn't address sustainable pricing. And if we didn't address the other inflationary costs that we needed recovery on like raw material and getting the prices indexed as we've already negotiated. So -- and then I went on to say that I'm confident that, that's not going to be the case based on the way the customers are negotiating with us, and I'm very pleased about that.

    是的,帕特里克,是傑夫。所以我所說的是我們的商業計劃,我想是在 6 個月前,對吧,當我們第一次編制該計劃時,它向我們展示了連續幾年每年燃燒 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元。所以我對邁克說的是,如果我們不解決可持續定價問題,我們將在兩年內在歐洲燒掉 1 億美元現金。如果我們不解決其他通脹成本問題,我們需要恢復原材料等成本,並按照我們已經協商好的方式將價格指數化。所以——然後我接著說,我有信心,根據客戶與我們談判的方式,情況不會是這樣,我對此感到非常高興。

  • I think that when you go into a tough negotiation and one that requires the type of adjustments that we needed in Europe, you don't really know what the customer's response is going to be until you ask. And clearly, we're a valued supplier in Europe and the negotiations are reflecting that. So as we work our way through the second half of the year, I said that I expect you'll see those prices reflected in the bottom line of the business, and we're pretty proud of that.

    我認為,當你進行一場艱難的談判,並且需要我們在歐洲所需要的那種調整時,在你詢問之前,你並不真正知道客戶的反應會是什麼。顯然,我們是歐洲一家有價值的供應商,談判也反映了這一點。因此,當我們在今年下半年工作時,我說我希望您會看到這些價格反映在業務的底線中,我們對此感到非常自豪。

  • Patrick Sheffield - MD

    Patrick Sheffield - MD

  • Okay. Great. And just broadly looking, high level at Q4 to Q1 sequential performance, seeing revenues increase and EBITDA decrease. What were the biggest -- I don't know if you could, provide some of the buckets similar to what you do on a year-over-year basis. And was there a big change by region? Or was it kind of broad-based?

    好的。偉大的。從廣義上看,第四季度到第一季度的連續業績處於高水平,收入增加而 EBITDA 減少。最大的是什麼——我不知道你是否可以提供一些類似於你逐年所做的事情。各個地區有很大的變化嗎?或者它的基礎廣泛嗎?

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Patrick, it's Jon. I'll take that one. Generally broad-based, but in Q4 of last year, we did have commercial agreements get locked in and settled in Q4 of last year. So that certainly helped the quarterly performance in Q4, and those one-timers don't necessarily repeat. We are continuing to make good progress on the commercial front, as Jeff has been talking about here. But because of the magnitude of that one-time deal we booked in Q4 of last year, you're seeing that decline. It's mostly all of that. I talked to Mike about the FX impact. There is about $6 million of FX quarter-over-quarter to the negative, that is impacting profitability.

    帕特里克,我是喬恩。我會接受那個。總體來說基礎廣泛,但在去年第四季度,我們確實有商業協議在去年第四季度鎖定並解決。因此,這肯定有助於第四季度的季度業績,而且那些一次性的情況不一定會重複。正如傑夫在這裡所說的那樣,我們將繼續在商業方面取得良好進展。但由於我們去年第四季度預訂的一次性交易規模較大,您會看到這種下降。大部分就是這些了。我和邁克談論了外彙的影響。大約有 600 萬美元的外匯季度環比為負值,這影響了盈利能力。

  • But the positive lean initiatives, both on our purchasing front and our manufacturing front, continue to benefit the comps sequentially. So all in, those are kind of the pieces that you'll see. Certainly, the North American volumes picking up and the European volumes that remain strong Q4 into Q1, also benefit the sequential [Q].

    但我們採購方面和製造方面的積極精益舉措繼續使公司繼續受益。總而言之,這些都是您將看到的作品。當然,北美銷量的回升以及歐洲銷量在第四季度至第一季度保持強勁,也有利於環比[Q]。

  • Patrick Sheffield - MD

    Patrick Sheffield - MD

  • So how much of the decline was that onetime benefit in Q4? It sounds like 6 million negative on FX and other stuff was positive. So [it's] kind of the bulk of that.

    那麼,第四季度的一次性收益下降了多少呢?聽起來好像 600 萬美元對外匯是負面的,而其他東西卻是正面的。所以[這是]其中的大部分。

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • The negatives were the FX and the good news booked in Q4 that didn't repeat here in Q1.

    負面因素是外彙和第四季度的好消息,但在第一季度沒有重複。

  • Patrick Sheffield - MD

    Patrick Sheffield - MD

  • Okay. All right. That makes sense. And then, you guys were providing some color on volumes and margins you get in a more normal year. What kind of global volumes would you need to get back to just cash flow positive everywhere? Where we sit today?

    好的。好的。這就說得通了。然後,你們提供了一些有關正常年份的銷量和利潤的信息。您需要多少全球交易量才能使各地現金流恢復為正值?今天我們坐在哪裡?

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • Patrick, this is Jeff. Yes. What I was saying earlier was an answer that -- the context wasn't what you just asked. Clearly, the volumes that we have forecasted and the pricing that we are negotiating gets us back to cash flow positive, which is your question.

    帕特里克,這是傑夫。是的。我之前所說的是一個答案——上下文不是你剛才問的。顯然,我們預測的數量和我們正在談判的定價使我們回到正現金流,這是你的問題。

  • Patrick Sheffield - MD

    Patrick Sheffield - MD

  • Okay. Yes. (inaudible).

    好的。是的。 (聽不清)。

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. The question that was asked earlier was when do we get back to sort of the double-digit level performance that we have always come to know here and related to EBITDA and related to ROIC, and that's when I talked about the larger volume forecast out there, probably 25 or so. I'm not sure it keeps changing, but we're going to see a 3% or so increase in the second half of this year, I'll take it. And I would expect that next year is probably going to be up a little bit as well, and then we'll see how 2024 plays out, and then we'll talk about '25. But at least the volume news going forward is more positive than it's been in the last 3 years. How about that?

    是的。之前提出的問題是,我們什麼時候才能恢復到我們一直在這裡了解的與 EBITDA 和 ROIC 相關的兩位數水平的表現,就在那時我談到了更大的銷量預測,大概25左右。我不確定它會持續變化,但今年下半年我們會看到 3% 左右的增長,我會接受。我預計明年也可能會有所上升,然後我們將看看 2024 年的情況如何,然後我們將討論 25 年。但至少未來的成交量消息比過去三年更加積極。那個怎麼樣?

  • Patrick Sheffield - MD

    Patrick Sheffield - MD

  • Yes. That helps. And then just looking at Q1 performance, how did that compare to your internal expectations when you guys set the budget, I guess, at the end of -- I want to read it, end of last year.

    是的。這有幫助。然後看看第一季度的表現,當你們設定預算時,我想,與你們的內部預期相比,我想在去年年底——我想讀一下它。

  • Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey S. Edwards - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think the Q1, as I said, was pretty much what we thought it was going to be with the exception of timing associated with a couple of commercial negotiations that didn't allow us to book the type of retros that we were planning for. But that catches up over time here. So I'm not too worried about it. I think, the volumes were basically what we thought they were going to be. We think they're going to be a little bit stronger in Europe and North America, second half of the year. So that's what we think, and we'll talk to you about our guidance, if there is any updates there in the July call, like we usually do.

    是的。正如我所說,我認為第一季度幾乎與我們所想的一樣,只是與一些商業談判相關的時間安排不允許我們預訂我們計劃的複古類型。但隨著時間的推移,這種情況在這裡迎頭趕上。所以我不太擔心。我認為,數量基本上就是我們想像的那樣。我們認為今年下半年他們在歐洲和北美的表現將會更強一些。這就是我們的想法,如果 7 月份的電話會議中有任何更新,我們將與您討論我們的指導,就像我們通常做的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your question. (Operator Instructions). Our next question comes from Ben Briggs of StoneX Financial.

    謝謝你的問題。 (操作員說明)。我們的下一個問題來自 StoneX Financial 的 Ben Briggs。

  • Ben Briggs

    Ben Briggs

  • So all around kind of not a bad quarter. I think, it sets you up to come in somewhere close to guidance. One thing that I had a question on here though is the gross margin. So I'm wondering if you can provide any more clarity? I know, you said you would see improvement in gross margin over the course of the year. But if you could just get any more granular on kind of what the pace of gross margin expansion should be? It looks like, you took certainly a step forward on a year-over-year basis with gross margin this quarter, but kind of a step back on a sequential basis. So any more granularity there would be appreciated?

    所以總的來說,這個季度還算不錯。我認為,它會讓你接近指導。我在這裡有疑問的一件事是毛利率。所以我想知道您是否可以提供更清晰的信息?我知道,您說過今年毛利率會有所改善。但如果你能更具體地了解毛利率擴張的速度應該是怎樣的呢?看起來,本季度的毛利率同比確實向前邁出了一步,但環比卻有所退步。那麼如果有更多的粒度,我們會很感激嗎?

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Ben, it's Jon. Are you looking for the forward look or what happened from Q4 into Q1 of this year? I just wanted to understand your question.

    本,這是喬恩。您是否正在尋找前瞻性或今年第四季度到第一季度發生的事情?我只是想了解你的問題。

  • Ben Briggs

    Ben Briggs

  • I guess, both. I guess, both.

    我想,兩者都有。我想,兩者都有。

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. Well, certainly, the items that I already talked about as far as the sequential bridge, most of those, in fact, do benefit gross profit as well. Anytime you have commercial wins or losses, they impact the top line and then immediately gross profit, they fall through at 100%, right?

    好的。嗯,當然,我已經討論過的關於順序橋的項目,事實上,其中大多數也確實有利於毛利潤。任何時候你有商業上的勝利或損失,它們都會影響營收,然後立即影響毛利潤,它們會 100% 下降,對嗎?

  • Ben Briggs

    Ben Briggs

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

    Jonathan P. Banas - Executive VP & CFO

  • And then, in the purchasing front being direct materials are a significant portion of our cost of goods sold, any benefit you see there and then the efficiencies we get in our -- at our manufacturing environment, both of those would be positive benefits and drivers too to the gross profit sequentially, period-over-period. FX is kind of smattered (sic) [scattered] all over the P&L. So you can't peg that to one individual line item. But presumably, a portion of that 6 million I already talked about would impact the gross profit negatively as well.

    然後,在採購方面,直接材料是我們銷售商品成本的重要組成部分,您在那裡看到的任何好處以及我們在製造環境中獲得的效率,這兩者都將是積極的好處和驅動因素也依次影響到同期的毛利潤。外彙在損益表中分散(原文如此)[分散]。因此,您不能將其與一個單獨的訂單項掛鉤。但據推測,我已經談到的 600 萬美元中的一部分也會對毛利潤產生負面影響。

  • Going forward, we don't guide to the gross profit level. And as we've already said, we're not updating guidance here today for you. But the commercial work streams and the sustainable pricing that we've been so intently focused on, will certainly drive gross profit improvements as will the entire organization coming to work every day, they continue to look at the cost structure and drive efficiencies across all areas. So those will be the big pieces, you'll continue to see gross profit improve each quarter and the overall financial results, as we've already said earlier today.

    展望未來,我們不會指導毛利潤水平。正如我們已經說過的,我們今天不會為您更新指南。但是,我們一直如此關注的商業工作流和可持續定價肯定會推動毛利潤的提高,整個組織每天都在工作,他們將繼續關注成本結構並提高所有領域的效率。因此,這些將是重要的部分,您將繼續看到每個季度的毛利潤和整體財務業績的改善,正如我們今天早些時候所說的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your question. It appears there are no more questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Roger Hendriksen for closing remarks. The floor is yours.

    謝謝你的問題。看來沒有更多問題了。我現在想將電話轉回給羅傑·亨德里克森 (Roger Hendriksen),讓其致閉幕詞。地板是你的。

  • Roger S. Hendriksen - Director of IR

    Roger S. Hendriksen - Director of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, everybody, for joining the call and for your engagement, your questions. We look forward to speaking with you again. If further questions come up, please feel free to reach out to us directly, and we'll talk to you soon. Thanks very much.

    好的。感謝大家加入電話會議、參與並提出問題。我們期待再次與您交談。如果還有其他問題,請隨時直接與我們聯繫,我們會盡快與您聯繫。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程序。您現在可以斷開連接。