金寶湯 (CPB) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季 Snack 事業群營收下滑 6%,導致毛利率大幅下滑(Q2 snack segment margin 僅 7%,YoY 下滑 390bps),主要因為銷量下滑與行銷投資持續。
    • 公司維持全年 EPS 指引,Q3 表現預期與 Q2 類似,Q4 預期將有明顯改善,全年下半年度 snack 事業群營收預計仍下滑約 4%。
    • 資本配置以現金流與降槓桿為優先,暫停庫藏股,CapEx 年度下修 5,000 萬美元,La Regina 併購首期付款 1.4-1.5 億美元。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Goldfish 品牌持續推動創新與多包裝策略,預期帶動消費動能。
      • 餅乾(Cookies)事業連續四季成長,Milano 與 Chessman 創新產品帶動分銷擴張。
      • Meals & Beverages 事業群中,Rails 品牌 Q2 市場消費成長 14.5%,全年預期高個位數成長。
      • Pacific 品牌高湯持續雙位數成長,聚焦烹飪場合與新品(如濃縮醬料)拓展新需求。
    • 風險:
      • Salty snacks(特別是 chips)競爭加劇,價格戰與促銷壓力大,市佔流失。
      • Fresh bakery 產線與物流執行問題,Q3 預期仍有逆風,Q4 才有望正常化。
      • 產能利用率下滑(如 Goldfish Richmond 廠),固定成本攤提壓力導致毛利率受損。
      • 油價波動與運輸成本不確定性,雖短期有對沖,但若高檔持續將影響成本結構。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Snacks 事業群 Q2 營收 YoY -6%,毛利率下滑 390bps 至 7%。
    • 下半年 Snacks 事業群營收預計 YoY -4%,Q4 稍優於 Q3。
    • Rails 品牌 Q2 市場消費 YoY +14.5%,全年預期高個位數成長。
    • Cookies 事業連續四季成長,Milano 與 Chessman 創新帶動分銷提升。
  4. 財務預測
    • 全年營收預估未明確揭露,但下半年 snacks 事業群營收預計 YoY -4%。
    • 全年 snack segment margin Q3 預期小幅改善,Q4 明顯回升,全年仍低於過往水準。
    • CapEx 年度預估下修 5,000 萬美元,La Regina 併購首期付款 1.4-1.5 億美元。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Snacks 事業群(特別是 salty/chips)競爭加劇,公司如何應對?促銷與價格策略為何?
      A: 將採取精準促銷策略,聚焦關鍵時點與通路,維持品牌競爭力。部分產品會考慮調整包裝與價格結構,必要時才會調整常態價格。
    • Q: Fresh bakery 執行問題具體為何?何時能恢復正常?
      A: 主要是製造與物流配送中斷,1月暴風雪加劇問題。已組跨部門團隊改善,Q3 仍有逆風,Q4 預期恢復正常。
    • Q: 資本配置優先順序?La Regina 併購資金規劃?
      A: 現金流與降槓桿為首要,暫停庫藏股與股利增長,CapEx 下修,La Regina 併購首期付款 1.4-1.5 億美元,次期可選擇發股或現金。
    • Q: 下半年 snacks 事業群營收與毛利率展望?
      A: 下半年 snacks 營收預計 YoY -4%,Q4 稍優於 Q3,毛利率 Q3 小幅改善,Q4 明顯回升,全年仍低於過往。
    • Q: Meals & Beverages 事業群下半年成長動能與價格策略?
      A: 下半年仍有正向價格貢獻,但幅度低於上半年。Rails 品牌全年高個位數成長,整體消費動能 Q2 強勁,下半年預期持平或微幅成長。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to the Campbell's Company second quarter 2026 question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,歡迎參加坎貝爾公司2026年第二季問答環節。(操作說明)

  • As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Rebecca Gardy, Chief Investor Relations Officer. Ms. Gardy, you may begin.

    再次提醒,本次會議正在錄影。現在我將把電話轉交給首席投資者關係官麗貝卡·加迪。加迪女士,你可以開始了。

  • Rebecca Gardy - Senior Vice President, Chief Investor Relations Officer

    Rebecca Gardy - Senior Vice President, Chief Investor Relations Officer

  • Good morning and thank you for joining the Campbell's Company second quarter 2026 earnings question-and-answer session. Earlier this morning, we released our earnings press release, earnings slide presentation, and management's pre-recorded remarks, including both the transcript and the audio of the remarks. All of the Q2 earnings materials are available on our website. At the conclusion of today's live Q&A session, we will post a transcript and audio replay of this call.

    早安,感謝各位參加坎貝爾公司2026年第二季財報問答環節。今天早些時候,我們發布了盈利新聞稿、盈利幻燈片演示文稿以及管理層預先錄製的講話,包括講話的文字稿和音頻。所有第二季財報資料均可在我們的網站上查閱。在今天的線上問答環節結束後,我們將發布本次通話的文字稿和音訊回放。

  • During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements which reflect our current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates which could be inaccurate and are subject to risk. Please refer to slide 3 of our earnings presentation or our SEC filings for a list of factors that could cause our actual results to vary materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們可能會發表一些前瞻性聲明,這些聲明反映了我們目前對未來計劃和業績的預期。這些陳述依賴假設和估計,這些假設和估計可能不準確,並且存在風險。請參考我們的收益簡報第 3 頁或我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,其中列出了可能導致我們的實際業績與前瞻性聲明中預期業績存在重大差異的因素。

  • Because we use non-GAAP measures that we believe provide useful information for investors, we have provided a reconciliation of each of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of our earnings presentation. Non-GAAP measures are not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

    由於我們使用非GAAP指標,我們認為這些指標可以為投資者提供有用的信息,因此我們在收益報告的附錄中提供了每個指標與最直接可比較的GAAP指標的調節表。非公認會計準則指標不應被孤立地看待,也不應被視為替代按照公認會計準則編制的財務資訊。

  • Joining me today are Mick Beekhuizen, Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, our Chief Financial Officer. We will now open the call for questions. Operator.

    今天與我一同出席的有執行長 Mick Beekhuizen 和財務長 Todd Cunfer。現在開始接受提問。操作員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays

    (操作說明)安德魯·拉扎爾,巴克萊銀行

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Great, thanks so much. Good morning and and welcome, Todd. Maybe, focusing in on snacks to start with, from a top-line standpoint, what are you seeing in the key areas here of Goldfish, fresh and salty, and sort of what's the plan for progress in the back half? And I guess for salty specifically. You called out heightened competitive intensity and and around which there's been plenty of discussion lately in the category.

    太好了,非常感謝。早安,歡迎你,托德。或許,我們可以先從零食入手,從整體來看,您在金魚餅乾、新鮮零食和鹹味零食這些關鍵領域看到了什麼?接下來的半年裡,你們有什麼發展計畫?我想,尤其是鹹味的。你提到了競爭強度的加劇,而最近在這個領域也圍繞著這一點展開了許多討論。

  • I'm trying to get a sense of what the solution is. Is it is it lower everyday prices, higher promotional spend, sort of bonus packs, etc. And kind of what sort of magnitude. Are we talking about? And then just on the margin side, the 7% snack segment margin was a bit of a shock, and then given the investments that need to be made, is that the sort of level we should be thinking about for the next few quarters? I know it's a lot, but I was hoping we could dig into that a little bit.

    我正在努力尋找解決方案。是降低每日價格、增加促銷支出、送禮包等等嗎?規模大概有多大?我們在談什麼?再看看利潤率方面,零食業務的利潤率只有 7%,這有點出乎意料。考慮到需要進行的投資,這是否是我們未來幾季應該考慮的利潤率水準?我知道這資訊量很大,但我希望我們能深入探討。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great, yeah, morning, Andrew. Thank you for the questions. We'll take them one by one. So next top-line, salty, I'll comment on, and then Todd, if you can take the margin, and I'll give kind of the broader lead in around the margin. But if you look at So this next top-line.

    好的,早上好,安德魯。謝謝大家的提問。我們將逐一解決。接下來,我會評論一下主線,鹹味,然後托德,如果你能把握住差距,我會給出關於差距的更廣泛領先優勢。但如果你看一下下一行。

  • Three key focus areas. First of all, goldfish. Second, fresh bakery, and then salty.

    三個重點關注領域。首先是金魚。其次是新鮮出爐的麵包,然後是鹹味的。

  • Let's go through kind of each of these different pieces. So with regard to goldfish, we need to make sure that we maintain the goldfish momentum.

    讓我們逐一了解這些不同的部分。所以就金魚而言,我們需要確保保持金魚的成長動能。

  • We had momentum as you saw in our prepared remarks going throughout the first half. We need to see that sequential progress throughout the second half of the fiscal year, and that's really with regard to in-market consumption.

    正如你們在上半場我們準備好的演講稿中所看到的,我們當時勢頭正盛。我們需要看到本財年下半年的持續進展,這主要是指市場消費方面。

  • And when I go to fresh bakery execution, we ran into execution challenges as we described. When I look at the remainder of the year, I expect that in Q3 we'll likely see some continued headwinds. And that's partially self-inflicted as we reduced some in-market promotional activity in order to make sure that on-shelf availability and service levels are improving. And then by the 4th quarter we are working towards back to more normalized levels. And then when I get too salty, we need to improve our overall competitiveness. Within that part of our snacks portfolio, and it's really predicated upon three key focus areas. First of all, making sure that we improve our competitiveness from a pricing perspective.

    當我去執行新鮮烘焙產品的製作時,我們遇到了我們之前描述的執行方面的挑戰。展望今年剩餘時間,我預計第三季我們可能會繼續面臨一些不利因素。這部分是咎由自取,因為我們減少了一些市場促銷活動,以確保貨架供應和服務水準得到改善。然後到第四季度,我們將努力恢復到更正常的水平。然後,當我情緒過於激動時,我們需要提高整體競爭力。在我們零食產品組合的這一部分中,它實際上是基於三個關鍵的重點領域。首先,我們要確保從價格角度提高我們的競爭力。

  • Second of all, we need to make sure we're focused on the daily blocking and tackling or the in-market execution, which is absolutely critical. And then third, we need to evolve our portfolio with innovation, which is primarily focused on. Or the one in premium, better for you as well as flavor exploration.

    其次,我們需要確保我們專注於日常的日常營運或市場執行,這絕對至關重要。第三,我們需要透過創新來發展我們的產品組合,而創新主要集中在以下方面。或者選擇高級版,對你更有益,也能讓你探索更多口味。

  • All that being said, with insultty, I expect that we're going to make some progress throughout the second half, but it will take some time.

    綜上所述,儘管有些不敬,但我認為我們在下半場會取得一些進展,但這需要一些時間。

  • Now with regard to your specific question around salty pricing, And that's really my comment really comes back to the chip side of the business. So salty, as you might recall, we have consists for us of two key pieces. First of all, pretzels, and then and the second half is chips. That's really where we're seeing more of that.

    現在,關於你提出的鹹味薯片定價的具體問題,我的評論其實還是要回到薯片業務本身。如您所料,鹹味由兩個關鍵部分組成。首先是椒鹽捲餅,然後是薯片。這種情況確實越來越多地出現在那裡。

  • Competitive pricing dynamic playing out and you've heard that also from some of the other players in the space. What are we doing there? It is really focused on the promotional activity. It's going to be very surgical, and we're going to make sure that we are going to be competitive in the areas that matter during the times it also really matters. So again, just making sure that we're competitive.

    競爭激烈的定價機制正在發揮作用,你也從該領域的其他一些參與者那裡聽到類似的說法。我們去那裡做什麼?它確實非常注重推廣活動。我們將採取非常精準的策略,確保在關鍵時刻,在關鍵領域保持競爭力。所以,再次強調,就是確保我們保持競爭力。

  • In key moments, there is always a continued opportunity around some of the price pack architecture. However, that's going to take a little bit longer.

    在關鍵時刻,價格方案架構方面總是會存在持續的機會。不過,這還需要一些時間。

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • From a margin perspective, obviously very poor performance, down 390 basis points in the quarter, as we mentioned in the script, about a quarter of that was the bakery performance that Mick just mentioned, and three quarters, three quarters of it, quite frankly, is just when you're, when net sales are down 6%, there's a very large deleverage both in our plant network and also we, as we continue to invest in marketing and SG&A. When you're down 6%, that math and margin is challenging.

    從利潤率的角度來看,顯然表現非常糟糕,本季下降了 390 個基點。正如我們在劇本中提到的,其中大約四分之一是米克剛才提到的烘焙業務表現,而坦白說,四分之三的下降是由於淨銷售額下降了 6%,導致我們的工廠網絡槓桿率大幅下降,而且我們還在繼續投資於市場營銷和銷售、一般及行政費用。當虧損 6% 時,計算利潤率就變得很困難。

  • Go for the second half, I, we will do a bit better on snacks margin in Q3. We are still in the process of stabilizing bakery. We are still going to have a fair amount of spending, particularly in marketing in Q3, so we will see some marginal improvement in Q3, but nothing dramatic. I think we'll see a lot better performance in Q4 because we feel very strongly we will have the bakery performance stabilized much more greatly at that point. We will have lower marketing year over year and then we have a lot of activity on goldfish in the quarter, which that is by far our highest margin product line in the snacks portfolio, so that should help margin as well.

    下半年繼續努力,我認為我們在第三季零食利潤率會有所提高。我們仍在努力穩定麵包房的運作。第三季我們仍將有相當多的支出,尤其是在行銷方面,因此第三季我們將看到一些輕微的改善,但不會有顯著的變化。我認為第四季業績會好得多,因為我們非常有信心,屆時烘焙業務的業績會更加穩定。我們將減少年度行銷支出,但本季我們將大力推廣金魚餅乾,這是我們零食產品組合中利潤率最高的產品線,因此也應該有助於提高利潤率。

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Great great thanks so much.

    太感謝了!

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Palmer, JPMorgan.

    湯姆‧帕爾默,摩根大通。

  • Thomas Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Palmer - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for the question. Maybe to start off, I wanted to maybe get a little more detail on the Fresh bakery challenges. The remarks to Andrew and in the prepared remarks indicate that they did emerge before the winter storms. It seems like they're related to execution challenges. I'm just trying to understand where you're seeing this. Is this like a production issue? Is it a challenge with route to market in terms of servicing customers and then just how you're addressing it. In terms of resolving it here over the next couple quarters.

    早安.謝謝你的提問。首先,我想更詳細地了解一下 Fresh 烘焙挑戰賽的情況。對安德魯的演講以及事先準備好的演講表明,他們的確是在冬季風暴之前出現的。看起來它們都與執行上的挑戰有關。我只是想弄清楚你是從哪裡看到這個的。這是生產方面的問題嗎?在客戶服務方面,市場通路是否面臨挑戰?以及您是如何應對的?就解決此問題而言,預計在接下來的幾個季度內就能實現。

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, okay.

    好的。

  • Let let me address it. So with regard to Fresh Bakery, I mentioned this in my prepared remarks as well. It's really focused on both the manufacturing as well as distribution disruptions, and it was exacerbated by the January winter storm. But you're right, we already started to see that throughout the quarter. And it's really coming back to making sure that we have product available on the shelf. So that comes back to services as well as the in-market execution piece. We deployed a cross-functional team and we're already seeing measurable improvements across the board.

    讓我來解釋一下。關於 Fresh Bakery,我在準備好的演講稿中也提到了這一點。它主要關註生產和分銷環節的中斷,而一月份的冬季風暴加劇了這種情況。但你說得對,我們在這個季度已經開始看到這種情況了。歸根究底,還是要確保貨架上有產品供應。所以,這又回到了服務以及市場執行環節的問題。我們組建了一支跨職能團隊,目前已經看到各方面都有了顯著的改善。

  • At the same time, I'm also very conscious that we need to make sure that we're making sustainable improvements. So as a result, we're investing in the business so that the changes that we're making are sticking so that we can service this business better going forward. As I mentioned, we already started to see progress over the past, call it four weeks. We've got to continue to work through that in the 3rd quarter and then we're working towards normalization in the 4th quarter.

    同時,我也非常清楚,我們需要確保我們所取得的是可持續的進步。因此,我們正在對這項業務進行投資,以便我們所做的改變能夠持續下去,從而使我們能夠更好地為這項業務服務。正如我之前提到的,在過去的四周裡,我們已經開始看到一些進展。我們必須繼續在第三季解決這個問題,然後在第四季努力實現正常化。

  • Thomas Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Palmer - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. And then on capital allocation priorities, you noted the plans to focus more on debt reduction versus share repo. There's the dividend which equates to a little over two-third of EPS guidance this year, and then you have the, La Regina acquisition soon to close. So it seems like, there also might be some investments needed to maybe support the business, maybe just kind of an update on how you see this all balancing out.

    好的,謝謝。在資本配置優先事項方面,您提到了計劃將重點放在減少債務而不是股票回購上。股息相當於今年每股收益預期的三分之二多一點,此外,對 La Regina 的收購也即將完成。所以看來,可能還需要一些投資來支持業務發展,或許您只是想更新一下您認為這一切最終會如何平衡。

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I'll take that one. So look, cash flow obviously has become extremely imperative for us, just given the debt leverage, we are currently at and the takedown in the earnings. We will continue to invest in a business. We will. We will reallocate some of our marketing money as we've mentioned into promotional activity to get sharper price points, but the net effect of that will be that that is part of the reason why it's impacting our earnings. But we'll look, we're going to have to get really tight on CapEx as, we already took it down $50 million for the year. Working capital is going to have to be really tight. We're going to have.

    好的,我選那個。所以你看,鑑於我們目前的債務槓桿率和獲利下降,現金流顯然已經變得對我們極為重要。我們將繼續投資這項業務。我們將。正如我們之前提到的,我們將把部分行銷資金重新分配到促銷活動中,以獲得更具競爭力的價格,但這最終會導致我們的收益受到影響。但我們會考慮,我們必須嚴格控制資本支出,因為今年我們已經削減了 5,000 萬美元。營運資金必須非常緊張。我們將擁有。

  • No more share buybacks, even anti-dilutive share buybacks. We will not do. Look, the dividend is extremely important to us, but we will, there's, we will not be increasing that dividend anytime soon. And so we're, and look, we've mentioned, we mentioned a $100 million cost reduction in overhead that's going to take over the next couple of years. And so that, is in place to help cash flow as well. The La Regina acquisition. In the near term it's not going to be significant from a cash flow perspective. We will make one payment of roughly $140 million to $150 million here before the close of the year. If you remember that second payment, we have the option of issuing equity. That second payment comes a year from now. So if we need to. Issue equity instead of cash. We have that ability and then the second half of buying out the 51% is probably a few years off, but, rest assured capital cash flow preservation, is heightened for us right now, and getting that leverage down closer to 3 than to 4 is imperative for us.

    不再進行股票回購,即使是反稀釋性股票回購也不行。我們不會這麼做。你看,分紅對我們來說非常重要,但是我們近期不會提高分紅。所以,正如我們之前提到的,我們將在未來幾年內削減 1 億美元的管理費用。這樣一來,也有助於現金流的流動。收購 La Regina。短期內,從現金流的角度來看,這不會造成重大影響。我們將在年底前一次性支付約 1.4 億至 1.5 億美元。如果你還記得第二筆付款,我們可以選擇發行股票。第二筆款項將在一年後支付。所以如果需要的話。以股權取代現金發行。我們有能力做到這一點,收購剩餘 51% 股份的第二部分可能還需要幾年時間,但請放心,目前我們更加重視資本現金流的維持,將槓桿率降至 3 而不是 4 對我們來說至關重要。

  • Okay, thanks.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Thomas Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Palmer - Analyst

  • Todd for all the detail.

    感謝 Todd 提供的所有細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Galbo, Bank of America

    彼得‧加爾博,美國銀行

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for the question. I actually wanted to go back just on the salty snacks points, Mick, that you were making. I think I heard you correctly, the focus is really to be more, I guess, on promotional, within chips versus maybe moving the everyday and obviously your largest competitor is making it more of an everyday shift, so. Just why is promotional, the right route or right tactic, for that, from that perspective within chips when you know you have, I guess the GBP800 gorilla that's doing a more permanent shift or at least seems like a more permanent shift on the price side.

    嘿,各位早安。謝謝你的提問。我其實是想回去看看你做的那些鹹味零食,米克。我想我聽對了,重點確實在於晶片內部的促銷,而不是日常運營,而你們最大的競爭對手顯然正在努力實現日常運營的轉型。從晶片領域的角度來看,為什麼促銷是正確的途徑或策略呢?要知道,你擁有一個價值 800 英鎊的龐然大物,它正在帶來更持久的轉變,或者至少在價格方面看起來是更持久的轉變。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, okay.

    好的。

  • So let me give you a little bit more context around it, and listen, as I mentioned, it's going to be, we're going to take a surgical approach.

    讓我再給你補充一些背景信息,聽著,正如我剛才提到的,我們將採取外科手術式的方法。

  • That is important and the other aspect of it is we're going to make sure that we continue to be competitive with our brands.

    這一點很重要,另一方面,我們要確保我們的品牌繼續保持競爭力。

  • If we look at the brands that we have with cappe and cattle.

    如果我們看看我們擁有的卡普和牛的品牌。

  • That are both in the playing more in the the cattle brand subcategory. We believe that with the brand positioning itself, we have a right to win with these brands. That is, Important obviously to kind of recognize and accordingly we need to make sure that we continue to lean into that brand's right to win. Now then back to your point around value, values are absolutely critical, obviously, and we've been pretty.

    這兩個品牌都更屬於牛品牌子類別。我們相信,憑藉品牌定位本身,我們有權贏得這些品牌。也就是說,顯然重要的是要認識到這一點,因此我們需要確保我們繼續支持該品牌贏得勝利的權利。現在回到你關於價值觀的觀點,價值觀顯然至關重要,而且我們一直都相當重視價值觀。

  • Diligent in the past about making sure that we continue to maintain a competitive position. We are going, as I mentioned, we're going to continue to look at Key channels. And if I look at what the competition is doing, making sure that we stay competitive within those channels. When I look at what we're seeing right now, most of the time, it can be resolved with our overall Promotional strategy. There could be instances where we have to reset some of the pricing more permanently, and if so, then we'll do that. So I don't want you to take away that we are just going to solve this with pure promotional activity. I think it's going to be that surgical approach that I kind of said in my lead in.

    過去我們一直努力確保保持競爭力。正如我剛才提到的,我們將繼續專注於關鍵管道。如果我觀察競爭對手的動向,確保我們在這些通路中保持競爭力。縱觀我們目前所看到的情況,大多數情況下,都可以透過我們的整體推廣策略來解決。可能有些情況下我們需要對某些價格進行更永久性的調整,如果是這樣,我們就會這麼做。所以我不想讓你們誤以為我們只會透過純粹的宣傳活動來解決這個問題。我認為會採取我之前提到的那種外科手術式方法。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Okay, no, thank, thanks for the additional, context there, and Todd, just I think you gave some color around just the EPS cadence for the back half, but just wanted to clarify that, I believe it's Q3, looks similar to Q2, and then you kind of see a normal step down in Q4 just to kind of hit the $0.90 you need to deliver in the back half to hit the midpoint. Do I have that math kind of right?

    好的,不,謝謝你提供的補充資料。托德,我覺得你對下半年的每股盈餘節奏做了一些說明,但我還是想澄清一下,我認為是第三季度,看起來和第二季度類似,然後在第四季度你會看到一個正常的下降,只是為了達到下半年需要實現的 0.90 美元的目標,從而達到中點。我的計算對嗎?

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • You have it correct.

    你說得對。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Okay perfect. Thanks very much guys.

    好的,完美。非常感謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

    梅根克拉普,摩根士丹利。

  • Megan Clapp - Analyst

    Megan Clapp - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Maybe we could just pick up there on the 3Q to 4Q cadence and Todd maybe follow-up on some of the margin commentary you gave Andrew, in the first question. So if 3Q kind of operating EBIT in, growth performance looks similar to 2Q, obviously an improvement and expected in the fourth quarter, I think as you think about the margin profile too, it would imply a. Improvement in margins as we get into the 4th quarter. I think typically 4Q is a lower margin quarter for you. So can you just from a, whether you do it by segment or just a consolidated basis, kind of unpack the expectations as we go sequentially from 3Q to 4Q that would imply that step up in margins sequentially.

    您好,早安。或許我們可以從第三季到第四季的節奏開始,托德可以就你在第一個問題中給安德魯的一些邊際評論進行後續討論。因此,如果第三季的營運息稅前利潤成長表現與第二季類似,顯然第四季度會有所改善,考慮到利潤率情況,我認為這意味著a。進入第四季度,利潤率有所提高。我認為通常來說,第四季是你們利潤率較低的季度。所以,無論是按業務板塊還是按合併數據,您能否分析一下從第三季度到第四季度,利潤率逐季增長的預期?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, absolutely. So a couple of factors give us more confidence that Q4 profile will be better than Q2 and Q3. 1, if you remember that, Sovos ERP conversion that brought volume into Q3 last year out of Q4. Lap that so we'll get a benefit organically. We'll get a benefit from from that volume coming back into Q4 this year. We do anticipate snacks stabilization. We're not going to be all the way to bright, but we do believe the snacks margin will improve sequentially as we get into Q4. Tariffs, we will start to lapse some of the tariffs in Q4 of last year, so that year over year. Hurt will not be as great in Q4 as it has been in the first three quarters of the year, and we will have lower, advertising spend in Q4. It'll be up in Q3. It will be down year over year in Q4, and that will help obviously the margins.

    是的,絕對的。因此,有幾個因素讓我們更有信心第四季的業績將優於第二季和第三季。 1,如果你還記得的話,Sovos ERP 的轉換將去年第四季的銷量帶到了第三季。這樣做,我們就能自然而然地獲得好處。今年第四季銷售回升,我們將從中受益。我們預期零食市場將趨於穩定。我們不會完全樂觀,但我們相信,隨著進入第四季度,零食利潤率將逐週提高。關稅方面,我們將從去年第四季開始逐步取消部分關稅,因此與去年同期相比有所下降。第四季受到的衝擊不會像前三個季度那麼大,而且第四季的廣告支出也會減少。將於第三季上線。第四季同比將有所下降,這顯然有助於提高利潤率。

  • Megan Clapp - Analyst

    Megan Clapp - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And maybe just one follow-up on what you just said on the stabilization and snacks. Can you just from an an org sales perspective, 3 to 4Q, can you just help us understand what you're expecting now for snacks for the year? It should, I know that compare does ease in both segments in the 4th quarter on the top-line perspective, but should we still be thinking about snacks is kind of declining in the 4th quarter?

    好的,太好了。關於您剛才提到的穩定劑和零食,或許還有一點需要補充。從公司銷售的角度來看,能否請您幫助我們了解您對今年零食銷售的預期(第三季到第四季)?我知道,從營收角度來看,第四季兩個細分市場的業績都有所下滑,但我們是否仍應該考慮到零食業務在第四季有所下降?

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, it's going to take a while. Look, we have a lot of good activity going on, but snacks will probably be down about 4% in the second half. So, and that's going to be fairly balanced. Between Q3 and Q4, probably a little bit better in Q4 than Q3, but we're, we are not anticipating, a big sequential increase, benefit from in the net sales line. We do think we'll get, we'll stabilize margins. They will get better. They will not be all the way to bright, but we do think the margin profile will get better as we end the year.

    是的,這需要一段時間。你看,我們有很多不錯的業務正在進行,但下半年零食銷售量可能會下降約 4%。所以,這將相當平衡。第三季到第四季之間,第四季可能比第三季略好一些,但我們預期淨銷售額不會大幅季增。我們認為我們能夠實現利潤率穩定。他們會好起來的。它們不會非常出色,但我們認為隨著年底臨近,利潤率狀況會有所改善。

  • Megan Clapp - Analyst

    Megan Clapp - Analyst

  • Okay great thank you so much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler

    麥可·拉弗里,派珀·桑德勒

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Thank you, good morning. I just wanted to understand a little bit better, you said that, some of the marketing spending will shift to promo spend.

    謝謝,早安。我只是想更清楚地了解一下,您說過部分行銷支出將轉移到促銷支出。

  • I get the need for some of the pricing adjustments or stepped up promo spending, but it seems like the ideal is to walk and chew gum, I guess why not both? Is it just maybe handcuffed, but where you are on the leverage, or is there a way to get, do you have the right marketing spending level and how do you think about balancing the need for that versus the pricing?

    我理解需要進行一些價格調整或加大促銷支出,但理想的做法似乎是兩者兼顧,我想為什麼不能兩者兼顧呢?或許只是被束縛住了,但你現在處於什麼位置?或者有沒有辦法獲得優勢?你的行銷支出水準是否適合?你如何看待平衡行銷需求與定價之間的關係?

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I mean, to be clear, our anticipation is marketing spend year over year will be up. So, as we started the year, we were hoping it was going to be up, a bit more than now we're forecasting, but it will be up year over year. Look, I'd--love to be spending more marketing money versus trade if, the kind of the market would allow it right now. But we've just. I think it's prudent to be competitive in certain areas where we have price gaps in the marketplace, whether it's on broth, whether it's on chips, and we're we're not, we're not talking about dramatic changes in our trade philosophy or spend. We will spend more. Some of that will get funded by by marketing. There will be an incremental hit to the P&Ls as we've mentioned.

    是的,我的意思是,說清楚點,我們預期行銷支出將逐年成長。所以,年初的時候,我們希望它能比現在預測的略有成長,但肯定會比去年同期成長。你看,如果目前的市場狀況允許的話,我非常願意把更多的錢花在行銷而不是貿易上。但我們剛剛。我認為在某些存在市場價格差距的領域保持競爭力是明智的,無論是肉湯還是薯片,我們並不是說要對我們的貿易理念或支出進行重大改變。我們將增加支出。部分資金將來自行銷。正如我們之前提到的,這將對損益表造成一定程度的影響。

  • But the anticipation is marketing will still be up, but we are going to lean in a little bit more heavily into price.

    但預計行銷力道仍將加大,但我們會更重視價格因素。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, and I think maybe to add, maybe to add to that kind of when you go through the year is we're taking a very balanced approach. I just want to make sure that we reiterate that because core brands, we're going to continue to make sure that we build them. And if there is, for instance, one brand that we are continue to support and we will continue to support, it's rails on the meals and beverages side and you see the Positive effect from that in the results. Another brand on the snack side that we've got to make sure we continue to support with marketing.

    是的,我認為或許應該補充一點,在這一年中,我們採取的是一種非常平衡的方法。我只想再次強調,因為核心品牌,我們將繼續確保它們得以成長。例如,如果要說我們一直以來支持並將繼續支持的某個品牌,那就是餐飲方面的 Rails 品牌,而從結果中也可以看到它帶來的正面影響。另一個零食品牌,我們必須確保繼續在行銷方面給予支持。

  • Is goldfish. So we're being very selective how we are allocating our dollars or our support between trade and marketing.

    是金魚。因此,我們在貿易和行銷之間分配資金或支援方面非常謹慎。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Yeah, okay, that's helpful. And just to follow-up on the pricing approach, obviously you touched on the promo increases, but then, you've also just talked about sharpening value architecture and some of the price pack architecture, and then you just in the previous question touched on at least considering some list price. Adjustments, can you maybe give a sense of phasing and kind of where you are in that process and what I've heard it correctly that that any list price adjustments aren't decided but just under consideration and then on the price pack architecture maybe some of how much is is underway versus under consideration.

    好的,這很有幫助。關於定價策略,您顯然提到了促銷價格上漲,但您也談到了完善價值架構和一些價格套餐架構,而且在上一個問題中,您還提到了至少要考慮一些標價。關於價格調整,您能否大致說明一下階段安排以及目前進展到什麼階段?我聽說,任何定價調整都還沒有最終決定,只是在考慮之中。至於價格方案架構,您能否說明哪些部分正在進行中,哪些部分還在考慮中?

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So let me unpack it. So first of all, some of the price packed architecture is going to take if it requires changing.

    讓我來詳細解釋一下。首先,一些價格不菲的架構可能需要進行更改。

  • Some of our package formats, that's obviously going to take a little bit longer. But it might also mean, and I'll give you an example around, for instance, goldfish.

    我們的一些包裝格式,顯然需要更長的時間。但它也可能意味著,例如,我舉個例子,以金魚為例。

  • It might also mean for us to make sure that we lean in to an area that we see is actually working, it's providing value to the consumer, such as multipacks within Goldfish. That's been working, and we need to make sure that we continue to lean into that space.

    這也可能意味著我們要確保我們專注於那些我們認為真正有效、能為消費者提供價值的領域,例如 Goldfish 中的多包裝產品。這種方法一直行之有效,我們需要確保繼續深入探索這一領域。

  • Because it, we have a moment here with that particular pack, and that's also coming back to when I mentioned price packed architecture. Then there might be some of the larger pack sizes that we have within Goldfish where we're leaning a little bit more into promotional activity.

    因為,我們在這裡要討論這個特定的產品包,這也讓我想起了我之前提到的價格包裝架構。那麼,對於 Goldfish 的一些較大包裝規格的產品,我們可能會更注重促銷活動。

  • In order to make sure that we hit a good price point that's providing that value for the consumer. Obviously the promotional activity, as I mentioned, is a bit more of the focus right now. Again, being very surgical, and then I can see it. For instance, on chips to the earlier point, if we're finding ourselves that certain list price gaps are just too large, we might selectively adjust. But the latter I expect to be smaller than the trade component.

    為了確保我們能找到一個既能為消費者提供價值又能達到合理價格點的定價策略。正如我之前提到的,目前的重點顯然是宣傳推廣活動。再說一遍,要非常精準地定位,這樣我就能看清楚了。例如,回到前面提到的晶片,如果我們發現某些標價差距過大,我們可能會選擇性地進行調整。但我預計後者會比貿易部分小。

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And Michael, this work is underway. We'll do some things in the shorter term, but some of the activity that we're doing is going to take a little bit of time. As we look at some of the price slopes, particularly in our snacks business. Some of them are just out of whack, we just have, price per ounce in some sizes that are below where they should be and conversely some that are above. So we just, we need to get those aligned.

    邁克爾,這項工作正在進行中。短期內我們會做一些事情,但有些活動需要一些時間。當我們觀察一些價格走勢時,尤其是在我們的零食業務中。有些價格完全失衡,有些規格的每盎司價格低於應有的價格,而有些規格的每盎司價格則高於應有的價格。所以,我們需要把這些協調起來。

  • It's going to take a little bit of time, but if we can execute that really well, there's some margin to be had.

    這需要一些時間,但如果我們能很好地執行,我們就能獲得一些優勢。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thanks so much.

    好的,太好了。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Max Gumport, BNP Paribas.

    馬克斯·古姆波特,法國巴黎銀行。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for the question. Another one on snacks for me. It's really just on this recovery, it's been ongoing for some time now. We, we've not seen the volume grow in a couple of years. At what point do you stop talking about a recovery to the, what you view as a normalized level of growth and maybe reset your expectation for what normalized growth is and ask differently what's giving you the confidence that this is still a segment where there is. A reasonable chance of growing sales organically at at the levels you've discussed that in the past investors. Thanks very much.

    嘿,謝謝你的提問。我又得準備點零食了。目前的問題確實在於恢復,而且已經持續了一段時間了。我們已經好幾年沒看到銷量成長了。你什麼時候才會停止談論恢復到你認為的正常成長水平,也許應該重新調整你對正常成長的預期,並換個角度思考是什麼讓你相信這仍然是一個有成長空間的領域。過去投資者曾討論過,實現有機銷售成長的合理可能性是達到您所描述的水平。非常感謝。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So, when I look at So let me unpack that. So with regard to goldfish based on what we are based on the brand that we have a right to win, and we believe that we have an opportunity to grow that business. And we are, we're seeing that sequential improvement. We're obviously not all the way back to bright yet, but I feel pretty confident around that. Also because of the, differentiated, positioning of the brand. And I mean, In the end, it also has a good better for your credentials, and we need to make sure that we amplify those. So it's a brand that I think fits well with what consumers are generally looking for. And yeah, we need to make sure that we tell that story and we provide. The value in the marketplace and net net, we can, as a result, grow that business.

    是的。所以,當我審視這個問題時,讓我來詳細解釋一下。所以就金魚市場而言,基於我們現有的品牌,我們有理由贏得比賽,我們相信我們有機會發展這項業務。我們看到,這種持續的改善正在發生。我們顯然還沒有完全恢復到最佳狀態,但我對此相當有信心。也因為該品牌採用了差異化的定位。我的意思是,最終,這對你的資歷也有好處,我們需要確保我們能提升這些資歷。所以我認為這個品牌很符合消費者的普遍需求。是的,我們需要確保講述這個故事並提供相應的服務。因此,憑藉市場價值和淨收益,我們可以發展這項業務。

  • So that's one. I feel pretty good about the goldfish side of things. Then if I look at bakery as a whole, people continue to focus on moments of indulgence, and that comes back with cookies. And we've been able to grow our cookies business now for 4 quarters in a row. With the Milano innovation, and we've got some incremental information, innovation that recently came out with Chessman. So I feel pretty good about our overall cookies business. Now, the cookies category hasn't been growing. So we need to make sure that we continue to differentiate our cookies business, and that that, as a result, fuels the growth. Then with regard to Fresh bakery, as I described earlier, we need to make sure that we get the execution right, and at that point in time, I believe we should be able to get that back to call it at least a flattish set of top-line.

    這是其中之一。我對金魚的情況感覺還不錯。如果從整體來看烘焙業,人們仍然關注享受美食的時刻,而餅乾正是這種享受的體現。我們的餅乾業務已經連續四個季度實現成長。米蘭的創新,以及我們最近在 Chessman 推出的一些增量訊息,都帶來了創新。所以我對我們的整體餅乾業務感覺相當不錯。如今,餅乾品類並沒有成長。因此,我們需要確保我們的餅乾業務繼續保持差異化,從而推動業務成長。至於新鮮烘焙,正如我之前所描述的那樣,我們需要確保執行到位,到那時,我相信我們應該能夠至少使總收入趨於平穩。

  • So that's with regard to bakery. Then when I get to salty, if I look at the two pieces of our business.

    以上是關於烘焙方面的內容。然後,當我感到不滿時,我會審視我們業務的這兩個部分。

  • We are playing in subcategories that are growing with our salty brands. That's first of all, within pretzels. The pretzel subcategory has been growing, and we have two great brands with Snack Factory, as well as Snyder's of Hanover.

    我們正在進軍那些隨著我們的鹹味品牌而不斷發展的細分市場。首先,這是在椒鹽捲餅裡。椒鹽脆餅細分市場一直在成長,我們擁有 Snack Factory 和 Snyder's of Hanover 這兩個優秀的品牌。

  • Snack Factory has been growing. We've made some sequential progress on Snyder of Hanover. We've got more work to do on that in order to get that back to growth. But again, because we're, we are participating within a growing subcategory, I feel if we gain our fair share, we should be able to grow that business. Then on the salty side, sorry, on the chips side, that's obviously, as we've just been talking, a more competitive space as we're all experiencing.

    零食工廠一直在發展壯大。我們在漢諾威的斯奈德計畫上取得了一些進展。我們還需要做更多工作才能使之恢復成長。但是,因為我們參與的是一個不斷成長的細分領域,我覺得如果我們獲得應有的份額,我們就能夠成長壯大這項業務。然後,說到鹹味薯片,抱歉,應該說是薯片,顯然,正如我們剛才所討論的,這是一個競爭更加激烈的領域,我們都深有體會。

  • And although the subcategories that we are in with on the cattle [chipsite], Cape, as well as kettle chips, those two brands are well positioned within that subcategory of kettle chips, which is the growing part of chips. However, the competition has increased. Over the past, call it 12 to 24 months, and as a result we've got more pressure and we're losing share there and that's why we need to do the work that I described earlier in order to make sure that we get our fair share of that growing subcategory. And then finally you got late July and late July with its positioning is exactly what consumers are looking for. It is growing. It's a little wonky between different quarters because of some promotional activity, but overall I feel very good about that brand. So if I kind of That hopefully that gives you a little bit of context if I really unpack our overall snacks portfolio around like why do we believe we should be able to grow it, it's because the brands that we have and the subcategories that we're in. They are well positioned with what the evolving consumer is looking for, and the consumer is looking for that premium data for you and flavor exploration experience, and our brands can provide that.

    儘管我們在牛薯片、Cape薯片以及壺式薯片等子類別中都佔據了有利地位,但這兩個品牌在壺式薯片這個子類別中定位良好,而壺式薯片是薯片市場中增長最快的部分。然而,競爭加劇了。在過去的 12 到 24 個月裡,我們面臨著更大的壓力,市場份額也在下降,因此我們需要做我之前描述的工作,以確保我們在這個不斷增長的細分市場中獲得應有的份額。最後,到了七月下旬,而七月下旬的定位正是消費者所期待的。它正在發展壯大。由於一些促銷活動,不同季度之間可能略有波動,但總體而言,我對這個品牌感覺非常好。所以,如果我這樣解釋,希望能給你一些背景資訊。如果我詳細分析我們整體的零食產品組合,例如為什麼我們相信我們能夠實現成長,那是因為我們擁有的品牌和我們所處的子類別。他們很好地掌握了不斷變化的消費者的需求,而消費者正在尋找優質的數據和口味探索體驗,我們的品牌能夠提供這些。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Great, thank you. And then on Goldfish, so back in '23 you announced you were investing about $160 million in the Richmond manufacturing facility to expand Goldfish capacity. Since then, at least based on what we're seeing in track channel data volumes have been in decline. So can you talk about any, capacity utilization impacts you've seen as a result of that expansion and just your your view on your ability to to fill that capacity going forward? Thanks very much.

    太好了,謝謝。然後是關於金魚餅乾的,早在 2023 年,你就宣布要投資約 1.6 億美元在里士滿的生產設施中擴大金魚餅乾的產能。從那以後,至少根據我們在賽道通道數據中看到的情況來看,數據量一直在下降。那麼,您能否談談此次擴張對產能利用率的影響,以及您對未來充分利用這些產能的看法?非常感謝。

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I mean, so look, this is, what you just described unfortunately is part of the reason why we have a 7% margin in Q2. There has been 11 of the issues, not everything, but one of the issues is the leverage in the P&L. To your point, we have invested in.

    是的,我的意思是,你看,你剛才描述的情況,不幸的是,正是我們第二季利潤率只有 7% 的部分原因。已經出現了 11 個問題,雖然不是全部,但其中一個問題是損益表中的槓桿率。正如您所說,我們已經進行了投資。

  • Particularly goldfish, but in other areas coming out of the pandemic where we thought the volume would continue to grow. It obviously has not. And when you have higher fixed costs and your business is in decline a bit, that's really bad for margins, and that's what you're seeing. So our job as a management team is to make sure we can get that volume back and the P&L really starts to improve if we can do that. And that's look, it's as simple as that. We've got to get goldfish volume going in the right direction or we will continue to have these margin hurts.

    尤其是金魚,但在疫情後的其他領域,我們認為銷售量會持續成長。顯然沒有。當你的固定成本較高,而你的業務又略有下滑時,這對利潤率來說非常不利,而這正是你現在所看到的。因此,我們管理團隊的任務是確保銷售量能夠恢復,如果我們能夠做到這一點,損益表就會真正開始改善。就是這樣,就這麼簡單。我們必須讓金魚的產量朝著正確的方向發展,否則我們將繼續遭受利潤損失。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Great thanks very much appreciate it.

    非常感謝,感激不盡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moscow, TD Cowen.

    Robert Moscow,TD Cowen。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks, for the question. Just a couple more add-ons. I wanted to ask about distribution for your snack business. Your competitors talked about double-digit gains, and I wanted to know if you've seen distribution losses, as a result of that.

    嘿,謝謝你的提問。再增加幾個功能。我想諮詢一下貴公司零食業務的分銷情況。你的競爭對手談到兩位數的成長,我想知道你是否因此出現了分銷損失。

  • And then secondly, Todd, there, there's oil is jumping all over the place. It's going to have an impact on diesel, and, I wanted to know if you could talk about how that may impact the cost structure of the DSD network. These are independent routes, so it, it's a little complicated. I wanted to know if you could help us. Thanks.

    其次,托德,那邊,石油到處都在飛濺。這將對柴油產生影響,我想知道您能否談談這可能會如何影響DSD網路的成本結構。這些都是獨立的路線,所以情況有點複雜。我想知道您是否能幫幫我們。謝謝。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks. Yeah, great.

    謝謝。好的,太棒了。

  • Thank you, Todd. Why don't you take the second 1 and then I'll come back on the first?

    謝謝你,托德。你先拿第二個1,然後我再回來拿第一個?

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No, absolutely. So, obviously incredibly fluid situation. Oil's bouncing all over the place right now, and I don't think anyone knows how this is really going to play out in the next few weeks and more importantly, months and years.

    不,絕對的。所以,情況顯然瞬息萬變。目前油價波動劇烈,我認為沒有人知道未來幾週,更重要的是,幾個月甚至幾年內,油價會如何發展。

  • Right, the good news is right now. We are about 85% hedged on all commodities including things like diesel for freight and resins and other plastics and aluminum that could obviously get impacted by what's going on in the Middle East right now.

    沒錯,好消息就在眼前。我們對包括貨運柴油、樹脂、其他塑膠和鋁等在內的所有大宗商品進行了約 85% 的避險,這些商品顯然可能會受到目前中東局勢的影響。

  • So there could be some impact to this year. It's not going to be significant. If this continues for several months, if oil remains where it is as we start the fiscal year, obviously things are different. This will start to have an impact on our business and everyone's business if oil remains elevated, not just on freight. But on other other products that that leverage oil in their products as well.

    所以今年可能會受到一些影響。這不會造成什麼重大影響。如果這種情況持續幾個月,如果油價在財政年度開始時保持在目前的水平,那麼顯然情況就會有所不同。如果油價持續高企,這將開始對我們的業務以及所有人的業務產生影響,而不僅僅是對貨運業務。但其他一些產品也同樣利用了石油成分。

  • So more to come on that. Hopefully this will get resolved. We have, as I mentioned in the in the prepared remarks, we have nothing, no incremental costs embedded in our forecast from it. There is a little bit of risk there, but nothing. But nothing substantial. So look, if we're sitting here 3 or 4 months and it's still elevated, we're going to have to address it either through pricing or really sharpen our pencils on getting more costs out of the system.

    關於這一點,後續還會有更多討論。希望這個問題能夠解決。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所提到的,我們的預測中沒有包含任何新增成本。確實存在一點風險,但沒什麼大不了的。但沒有什麼實質內容。所以你看,如果我們在這裡坐了三四個月,價格仍然居高不下,我們就必須透過定價來解決這個問題,或者真正精打細算,從系統中削減更多成本。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And when I look at overall distribution, Rob, is I see in With the strength of our brands, you continue to see one distribution opportunities, and we're also gaining some of that distribution. It is more profound in areas like Goldfish, where we have a right to win. It's a well positioned brand, and we continue to work with our retail partners in growing that brand in some of the more competitive areas such as chips. I see a mix of, some gains and losses and probably as a result, a little bit more net neutral around the distribution side.

    羅布,當我審視整體分銷情況時,我看到憑藉我們品牌的實力,我們不斷獲得分銷機會,我們也正在獲得一些分銷渠道。在像金魚這樣的領域,這種現象更為深刻,因為我們有權利贏得比賽。這是一個定位良好的品牌,我們將繼續與零售合作夥伴攜手,在薯片等競爭較為激烈的領域中發展壯大該品牌。我看到有得有失,因此,分配方面可能最終會趨於淨中性。

  • When I think about what are we doing about areas like that. If we have great innovation, you find we find that our retail partners are excited about making sure that we gain that incremental distribution, and you see that for instance in cookies. Cookie's done really well with the Milano as well as the chessman innovation, and as a result, we've seen continued distribution gains in those areas.

    當我思考我們在這類領域都做了什麼。如果我們有偉大的創新,你會發現我們的零售合作夥伴會非常興奮地確保我們獲得增量分銷,例如在餅乾領域就可以看到這一點。Cookie 在 Milano 和國際象棋創新方面都做得非常出色,因此,我們在這些地區的銷售管道持續成長。

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey Rob, you, Rob, you mentioned, Rob, you mentioned independent DSD impact there just so we're clear. They are, look, they're independent operators. They are responsible for their fuel costs and other operating costs. So there's no direct, impact to us. But obviously, if they don't have, a competitive route where they can make money, ultimately at some point in time, it impacts.

    嘿,羅布,你,羅布,你提到了,羅布,你提到了獨立的DSD影響,這樣我們就能明白了。你看,他們是獨立運營商。他們需自行承擔燃料成本和其他營運成本。所以對我們來說沒有直接影響。但很顯然,如果他們沒有一條有競爭力的賺錢途徑,最終在某個時候,這會對他們產生影響。

  • Our ability to grow these businesses as well. So we'll have to be cognizant of that, but they are responsible for their fuel costs.

    我們也有能力發展這些業務。所以我們必須意識到這一點,但他們要對自己的燃料費用負責。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Thanks for that.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

    David Palmer,Evercore ISI。

  • David Palmer - Equity Analyst

    David Palmer - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks, I'm wondering if there's, a bigger long-term comment to be made about the snacks business, sometimes when you have, a margin of a segment get down towards what looks like maybe 10% this fiscal year.

    謝謝,我想知道關於零食業務是否有更重要的長期評論,因為有時當某個業務板塊的利潤率在本財年下降到接近 10% 時,情況就比較複雜了。

  • The implied valuation of it is compressed. There's something perhaps liberating about that, in terms of how you're thinking about it. You have [Mo hit], he's joining from a company that spun out DSD and sold cookies and, in other words, they rethought that business more completely. And I'm just wondering if if you think that this is maybe a time when you can really think about the complexity of the business what you own in it so you can put the resources you want against the good stuff within it. I know there's limited detail that you could share, but maybe you can make a comment on that and have a quick follow-up.

    其隱含估值被壓縮。從你思考這個問題的方式來看,這或許有種解脫感。你有[Mo hit],他來自一家剝離了DSD業務並開始銷售餅乾的公司,換句話說,他們更徹底地重新思考了這項業務。我只是想問,您是否認為現在或許是一個可以認真思考一下業務複雜性以及您在其中擁有的資產的時候,這樣您就可以將您想要的資源投入到其中的優質資產上。我知道您能分享的細節有限,但或許您可以就此發表一些評論,並進行簡短的後續跟進。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, so, and I know that we've spoken about this in the past. I mean, we're obviously operating the portfolio that we currently have. We are.

    是的,我知道我們以前也討論過這個問題。我的意思是,我們顯然是在經營我們目前擁有的投資組合。我們是。

  • Big believers in the brands that we have. We'll obviously always continue to make sure if there's alternatives that provide, create better shareholder value, that we take those into consideration now.

    我們非常看好我們旗下的品牌。我們當然會繼續確保,如果有能夠提供、創造更好股東價值的替代方案,我們現在就會考慮這些方案。

  • I'd say that when I look at our current snacks portfolio, another way of looking at some of what we're just talking about and particularly with regard to the margin is my perspective is like there, there's a lot of opportunity here and You see that hopefully also throughout our commentary really that action orientation and making sure that we go after these different areas.

    我想說,當我審視我們目前的零食產品組合時,換個角度來看我們剛才討論的一些內容,特別是關於利潤率方面,我的觀點是,這裡有很多機會。希望你們也能在我們的評論中看到這一點,真正體現出行動導向,確保我們進入這些不同的領域。

  • Now, obviously making sure, as Todd also mentioned, that we are stabilizing our top-line is absolutely critical. Growing areas like goldfish, which will help from an overall mixed perspective, and of course, making sure we get that fresh bakery execution right, are all going to help margins, but we're not going to stop with those initiatives. Continue to focus on that elevated productivity level is really important. That's both within the plants as well as within our logistics network.

    當然,正如托德也提到的那樣,確保我們的營收穩定下來至關重要。從整體綜合角度來看,發展金魚養殖等領域將有所幫助,當然,確保新鮮烘焙食品的製作過程正確無誤,這些都將有助於提高利潤率,但我們不會止步於這些舉措。繼續保持高生產力水平至關重要。這既包括工廠內部的情況,也包括我們的物流網絡內部的情況。

  • And then finally, Todd already mentioned the cost savings, whether they are with regard to our network or whether they are within our SG&A. We're going to continue to work on those different areas, although some of them might obviously take a little bit longer, so.

    最後,Todd 已經提到了成本節約,無論是在我們的網路方面還是在我們的銷售、一般及行政費用方面。我們將繼續在這些不同領域開展工作,儘管其中一些領域顯然可能需要更長的時間。

  • Listen, we are, always going to be continue to look at all the different alternatives, but we are focused on the portfolio that we have and make sure that we, work that as hard as we possibly can.

    聽著,我們當然會繼續專注於所有不同的選擇,但我們現在專注於我們現有的投資組合,並確保我們盡最大努力經營它。

  • David Palmer - Equity Analyst

    David Palmer - Equity Analyst

  • And thanks just a quick one on the other side of the business, I think a lot of your comments on your prepared remarks are really true about the cooking behaviors of the younger generation and you're leaning in on that with this new condensed sauces business.

    謝謝你,關於業務的另一邊,我想快速問一下,我認為你在準備好的發言稿中對年輕一代的烹飪習慣有很多評論,而你推出的濃縮醬料業務正是迎合了這一點。

  • I wonder about how incremental you think that can be and on the other side, how much we should be worried about, ongoing market share slippage on the on the broth side and you know it's been that broth business has flattened out lately. I'm just wondering how you're thinking about perhaps reviving growth there or at least, forestalling whatever progress is being made by private label getting back on shelf and thanks.

    我想知道你認為這能帶來多大的增量,另一方面,我們應該對肉湯市場份額的持續下滑有多擔心,你知道,最近肉湯業務已經趨於平穩了。我只是想知道您打算如何重振那裡的成長,或至少阻止自有品牌產品重返貨架,謝謝。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, so. And thank you for asking the question. Of course, we didn't talk as much about the meals and beverage side of the business, but with the in-market growth that we generated during the second quarter and the strong performance of rails, it's obviously something that we're very excited about.

    是啊,就是這樣。謝謝你提出這個問題。當然,我們沒有過多談及餐飲業務,但鑑於我們在第二季度實現的市場成長以及鐵路業務的強勁表現,這顯然是我們非常興奮的事情。

  • The other thing that is really working within the MMB portfolio, as you're describing. Is the overall focus on cooking occasions and our portfolio is catering very well to that. Also our products within the soup aisle and on the one hand, Within our condensed, so on the one hand, broth, I'll get back to broth in a minute, and then the other piece is our condensed portfolio has actually been doing relatively well because of the part of the business of the condensed portfolio that's focused on cooking and is being used as an ingredient. And it's a little over half of that condensed portfolio in the second quarter. That's been the growing part of the portfolio. On the flip side, the eating side has been declining, so net net.

    正如你所描述的,MMB投資組合中真正發揮作用的另一件事。我們整體的重點是烹飪場合,而我們的產品組合也很好地滿足了這一點。此外,我們的湯品產品,一方面是濃縮湯,我稍後會再談到肉湯,另一方面,我們的濃縮湯產品組合實際上表現相對較好,因為濃縮湯產品組合中專注於烹飪並用作配料的部分業務表現良好。第二季度,這略高於該精簡投資組合的一半。那是投資組合中成長最快的部分。另一方面,餐飲業一直在下滑,所以總體而言是下滑的。

  • Condensed has been relatively flat during the quarter.

    本季濃縮咖啡銷售量相對穩定。

  • That being said, we are seeing that different shaded proposition that we can provide with our condensed cooking soups which are being used as an ingredient like cream of mushroom, cream of chicken, and we are now expanding that into Campel's condensed sauces, and we believe we have a right to win with that. So what does that do? It basically allows us to start transforming more and more of the soup owl into an ingredient that we're providing, and it provides. Convenience at a very and comfort at a very attractive value proposition. So I'm very excited about the Campbell's condensed sauces. We're going to introduce that in June, as you saw. I think it will be incremental to what we're currently providing, and I think we're going to learn a lot with that introduction. And it's a great compliment to our condensed cooking soups as well as broth.

    也就是說,我們看到,我們可以用濃縮烹飪湯提供不同的選擇,這些湯被用作蘑菇奶油湯、雞肉奶油湯等配料,現在我們正在將其擴展到 Campel 的濃縮醬汁中,我們相信我們有理由憑藉這一點取得成功。那這樣做有什麼作用呢?它基本上使我們能夠將越來越多的湯貓頭鷹轉化為我們提供的食材,而它確實提供了。便利性和舒適性兼具,性價比極高。所以我對坎貝爾濃縮醬料感到非常興奮。正如你所看到的,我們將在六月推出這項服務。我認為這將是我們目前所提供服務的逐步補充,而且我認為透過這次引入,我們將學到很多東西。它與我們的濃縮湯和肉湯搭配使用效果極佳。

  • And with regard to broth has obviously been a growing category.

    至於肉湯,顯然已成為一個不斷成長的類別。

  • Two great brands we have within that category, it's Pacific as well as Swanson. Both of them continued to grow during this past quarter, albeit As you're pointing out, a little bit of share pressure, which we anticipated because that private label recovery. I'm, I, we're going to continue to make sure that we, on the one hand, stay competitive within the space, but also that we're continuing to focus on how can we grow that business as it is a very attractive value proposition that fits right within that cooking behavior.

    在這個類別中,我們有兩個很棒的品牌,分別是 Pacific 和 Swanson。儘管正如你所指出的,市場份額略有壓力,但這與我們預期的自有品牌復甦有關,因此這兩個品牌在上個季度都繼續保持成長。我們將繼續確保一方面保持在該領域的競爭力,另一方面也將繼續專注於如何發展這項業務,因為它具有非常有吸引力的價值主張,與這種烹飪習慣非常契合。

  • Pacific has been growing double-digits. The pressure has probably been a little bit more on Swanson, and Todd also mentioned earlier that we're watching very closely the price gaps to some of the private label participants and making sure that as a result we stay competitive during key dry periods like the holiday period.

    太平洋地區一直保持著兩位數的成長。Swanson可能承受的壓力更大一些,Todd之前也提到過,我們正在密切關注與一些自有品牌參與者之間的價格差距,並確保因此我們在假日等關鍵的銷售淡季保持競爭力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Salera, Stephens.

    吉姆·薩萊拉,史蒂芬斯。

  • Jim Salera - Equity Analyst

    Jim Salera - Equity Analyst

  • Guys, good morning. Thanks for taking our question. Nick, I wanted to build on David's question there and maybe just ask if you could give us some details around how we should think about meals and beverage in the back half of the year, particularly what we should expect on pricing, given some of the competitive dynamics you just highlighted. I mean, is there still opportunity for modest net price realization in the back half of the year and embedded in your updated guidance? Do you have. Incremental at home consumption given some of the pressures on the consumer typically that benefits that portion of the business, any detail on that would be helpful.

    各位,早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。Nick,我想在David提出的問題基礎上再補充一點,請問您能否詳細介紹一下我們應該如何看待今年下半年的餐飲,特別是考慮到您剛才提到的一些競爭動態,我們應該對價格抱有什麼樣的預期。我的意思是,今年下半年是否還有機會實現適度的淨價成長,而這已包含在您更新後的業績指引中?你有。考慮到消費者面臨的一些壓力,家庭消費的增加通常會有利於這部分業務,有關這方面的詳細資訊將很有幫助。

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I'll take the, I'll take the pricing first. We will have still positive net price realization in the second half. It won't be as great, as it's been, as just because of some of the investments we've made in broth. We're actually making a little bit in rails as well, but we still will have positive price.

    是的,我先看看價格。下半年我們仍將實現正的淨價格收益。由於我們在肉湯方面進行了一些投資,所以它不會像以前那麼好了。我們其實在 Rails 方面也略有獲利,但我們仍然會有正收益。

  • Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mick Beekhuizen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think from a consumption perspective you're probably going to see a little bit of pressure in the second half. You saw that in Q2 we did really well from an in-market consumption perspective, driven by the holiday period. Our products typically do very well during that period, and that was also very evident again during this. A holiday period and then on top of it, as you saw we had very healthy growth with regard to rails. Rails grew in market consumption 14.5% during the second quarter.

    我認為從消費角度來看,下半年可能會面臨一些壓力。您可以看到,在第二季度,從市場消費的角度來看,我們表現得非常好,這主要得益於假期期間的消費。我們的產品在那段時間通常表現得非常好,這次也再次證明了這一點。假期過後,正如你所看到的,我們在鐵路業務方面也取得了非常健康的成長。第二季鐵路市場消費量成長了14.5%。

  • And as I mentioned in the past, we expect for the full year high single-digits. And that's still what I'm expecting. So, a little bit of that disproportionate growth during the second quarter, but overall I expect continued growth with the rails brand. However, that leads to a little bit lower overall consumption growth in meals and beverage in the second half of this fiscal year. So I think you're hovering probably, to zero to slightly to one to zero is my hunch that's probably what you're going to see in and around.

    正如我之前提到的,我們預計全年成長率將達到個位數高點。而這正是我所期待的。所以,第二季出現了一些不成比例的成長,但總體而言,我預計 Rails 品牌將繼續成長。然而,這將導致本財年下半年餐飲消費總量的成長略有下降。所以我認為你可能正在零到略微一到零的範圍內徘徊,我的直覺是,這很可能就是你將在附近看到的情況。

  • The second half.

    下半場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we're out of time for questions today. This will conclude today's conference call.

    今天提問時間到。今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。