金寶湯 (CPB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Campbell's fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings conference call. I'm Rebecca Gardy, Chief Investor Relations Officer at Campbell's. And joining me today are Mark Clouse, Chief Executive Officer; and Carrie Anderson, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加金寶湯 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議。我是麗貝卡‧加迪 (Rebecca Gardy)，金寶湯首席投資者關係長。今天加入我的是執行長馬克‧克勞斯 (Mark Clouse)；凱莉·安德森（Carrie Anderson），財務長。

Today's remarks have been prerecorded. Once we conclude the prepared remarks, we will transition to a live webcast Q&A session. The slide deck and today's earnings press release have been posted to the Investor Relations section on our website, campbellsoupcompany.com. Following the conclusion of the Q&A session, a replay of the webcast will be available at the same location, followed by a transcript of the call within 24 hours.

今天的發言已預先錄製。一旦我們完成準備好的發言，我們將過渡到現場網路直播問答環節。幻燈片和今天的收益新聞稿已發佈到我們網站 Campbellsoupcompany.com 的投資者關係部分。問答環節結束後，將在同一地點重播網路廣播，並在 24 小時內提供通話記錄。

Statements On our call today, we will make forward-looking statements, which reflect our current expectations. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates, which could be inaccurate and are subject to risk.

聲明 在今天的電話會議上，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，反映我們目前的預期。這些陳述依賴假設和估計，可能不準確且有風險。

Please refer to slide 3 of our presentation or our SEC filings for a list of factors that could cause our actual results to vary materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Because we use non-GAAP measures, we have provided a reconciliation of each of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of our presentation.

請參閱我們簡報的投影片 3 或我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期的結果有重大差異的因素清單。由於我們使用非 GAAP 衡量標準，因此我們在簡報的附錄中提供了每項衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的調整表。

Slide 4 outlines today's agenda. Mark will provide insights into our fourth quarter and full year performance as well as our in-market performance by division. Carrie will then discuss the financial results of the fourth quarter and full year fiscal '24 in more detail and outline our guidance for the full fiscal year 2025, which we provided this morning.

第 4 投影片概述了今天的議程。馬克將提供有關我們第四季度和全年業績以及按部門劃分的市場業績的見解。隨後，Carrie 將更詳細地討論第四季度和 24 財年全年的財務業績，並概述我們今天上午提供的 2025 財年全年指引。

As a reminder, we completed the acquisition of Sovos Brands on March 12, and as such the full fiscal year 2024 financial results include a partial year contribution from Sovos Brands.

謹此提醒，我們於 3 月 12 日完成了對 Sovos Brands 的收購，因此 2024 財年完整財務業績包括 Sovos Brands 的部分年度貢獻。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Rebecca. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter fiscal '24 earnings call. In Q4 we continued to successfully navigate the evolving consumer landscape and delivered solid results; including, sequential volume improvement across both divisions, a second consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year adjusted EBIT growth and adjusted EPS growth, underpinned by sequentially improving margins on both businesses. It also marks the end of a dynamic year during which we drove significant progress against our strategic plan.

謝謝，麗貝卡。大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 24 財年第四季財報電話會議。第四季度，我們持續成功駕馭不斷變化的消費者格局，並取得了紮實的成果；包括兩個部門的銷售量環比增長、連續第二個季度調整後息稅前利潤和調整後每股收益同比增長兩位數，這得益於兩個業務的利潤率環比提高。這也標誌著充滿活力的一年的結束，在這一年中，我們在戰略計劃方面取得了重大進展。

In addition, we continued to see momentum on the Sovos Brands business and advanced the integration of the best growth story in food into our Meals and Beverages business. In-market performance was still mixed, but improved for both divisions, with substantial volume driven progress on Meals and Beverages and sequential improvement on Snacks. While the Snacks category recovery is unfolding at a somewhat slower pace than we'd like, it continues progressing in the right direction.

此外，我們繼續看到索沃斯品牌業務的勢頭，並推動將食品領域的最佳成長故事整合到我們的餐飲業務中。市場表現仍參差不齊，但兩個部門均有所改善，餐點和飲料銷量大幅增長，零食也連續改善。雖然零食類別的復甦速度比我們希望的要慢一些，但它繼續朝著正確的方向前進。

Finally, we also introduced fiscal '25 guidance today which reflects our expectation of steady progress and incorporates an appropriate level of pragmatism as we continue to navigate the recovery of Snacks in the first half of the year. Carrie will provide more details in a moment.

最後，我們今天也推出了 25 財年指引，反映了我們對穩步進展的預期，並在我們繼續推動上半年零食業復甦的過程中體現了適當的務實態度。 Carrie 稍後將提供更多詳細資訊。

While we remain vigilant as we head into fiscal '25, we have also never been more confident in the strength and long-term trajectory of our businesses. We remain steadfast in our view that consumer behavior will continue to normalize, and that we are uniquely positioned to deliver sustained and dependable growth with one of the best portfolios in all of food. We look forward to sharing more of this story at our Investor Day on September 10 in New York.

儘管我們在進入 25 財年時仍保持警惕，但我們對我們業務的實力和長期發展軌跡也從未如此有信心。我們仍然堅定地認為，消費者行為將繼續正常化，並且我們具有獨特的優勢，能夠憑藉所有食品中最好的產品組合之一實現持續可靠的成長。我們期待在 9 月 10 日於紐約舉行的投資者日分享更多這個故事。

Turning to slide 7, organic net sales in the fourth quarter declined 1% compared to the prior year. As we expected, volume improved sequentially and both adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS increased by double digits. The Sovos Brands acquisition was approximately neutral to adjusted EPS, which again exceeded our expectations.

轉向投影片 7，第四季的有機淨銷售額與去年同期相比下降了 1%。正如我們預期的那樣，銷售量環比增長，調整後的息稅前利潤和調整後的每股收益均增長了兩位數。 Sovos Brands 收購對調整後每股盈餘的影響大致為中性，這再次超出了我們的預期。

In-market consumption was essentially flat compared to the prior year, and the one point of difference in organic net sales versus consumption was primarily driven by headwinds from partner brands and some trade phasing, both of which were in our Snacks business.

與前一年相比，市場內消費基本持平，有機淨銷售額與消費的一個點差異主要是由合作夥伴品牌的逆風和一些貿易分階段推動的，這兩個因素都在我們的零食業務中。

On a full year basis, we were down slightly on topline, while growing adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS. I'd note that adjusted EPS at $3.08 for the full year put us roughly at the midpoint of our most recent guidance. As I mentioned, the trend of sequential volume and mix improvement we have experienced over the past two quarters continued in Q4. We were encouraged to see growth in Meals & Beverages of 2% and Snacks remain stable in the quarter.

從全年來看，我們的營收略有下降，但調整後的息稅前利潤和調整後的每股盈餘有所成長。我要指出的是，全年調整後每股收益為 3.08 美元，這使我們大致處於最新指導的中點。正如我所提到的，過去兩個季度我們經歷的連續銷售和產品組合改善的趨勢在第四季度得到了延續。我們很高興看到本季餐飲成長 2%，零食保持穩定。

This trend continues to reflect the improving consumer dynamics, including total food's move this quarter into positive territory for both dollars and units. Strong consumer metrics support this continued progress including roughly 70% of edible categories growing household penetration similar to Q3, and for the first time in a while, the recovery is beginning to extend to lower and middle-income households. The one negative indicator was a modest reversal in consumer confidence in the fourth quarter signaling the somewhat fragile state of the consumer, and why being prudent on expectations still makes sense.

這一趨勢繼續反映了消費者動態的改善，包括本季食品總量的美元和單位都進入正值區域。強勁的消費者指標支持了這一持續進展，包括大約 70% 的食品類別的家庭滲透率與第三季度類似，並且在一段時間內首次開始擴展到中低收入家庭。一個負面指標是第四季度消費者信心的小幅逆轉，顯示消費者的狀態有些脆弱，以及為什麼對預期持謹慎態度仍然有意義。

However, overall, as we have said before, we continue to see the recovery of the consumer environment not as a question of if, but rather a question of when.

然而，總體而言，正如我們之前所說，我們仍然認為消費環境的復甦不是是否的問題，而是何時的問題。

On slide 9, I want to briefly expand upon the material benefit we are experiencing with the integration of Sovos. While our Q4 Net Sales declined 1% from the prior year on an organic basis, including the pro forma contribution from Sovos, total company growth would have increased 150 basis points. There is also a 110 basis points benefit to volume and mix, resulting in an approximately 2% pro forma growth rate on volume and mix for the total company.

在投影片 9 上，我想簡要闡述我們透過整合 Sovos 所獲得的物質利益。雖然我們第四季的淨銷售額較上年有機下降 1%（包括 Sovos 的預期貢獻），但公司整體成長將增加 150 個基點。銷售和產品組合也有 110 個基點的好處，導致整個公司的銷售和產品組合預計成長率約為 2%。

This growth continues to pace ahead of our initial estimates and reflects the strength and the resilience of the Sovos business's growth, especially the Rao's brand.

這一成長速度持續超出我們最初的估計，反映了 Sovos 業務成長的實力和彈性，尤其是 Rao 的品牌。

Moving to our Meals & Beverage division on slide 10, we achieved growth of 1% in organic net sales in the quarter compared to the prior year. More importantly, that growth was fueled by a 2% volume growth, offset by a point of planned net pricing investment. On a pro forma combined basis with the addition of Sovos brands, Meals and Beverages' net sales grew 4%, also fueled by volume and mix growth and consistent with in-market consumption.

轉到幻燈片 10 上的餐飲部門，我們本季的有機淨銷售額與前一年相比成長了 1%。更重要的是，這一增長是由 2% 的銷售成長推動的，但被計劃的淨定價投資點所抵消。在預計合併基礎上，加上 Sovos 品牌的加入，餐飲和飲料的淨銷售額增長了 4%，這也是受到銷量和產品組合增長的推動，並且與市場消費保持一致。

This is the second quarter of strong performance across our legacy Meals & Beverages businesses and Sovos brands, both fueled by volume growth, an important indicator that is building confidence in the improving potential of our Meals and Beverages division going forward.

這是我們的傳統餐飲業務和 Sovos 品牌第二個季度表現強勁，銷售成長推動了這一成長，這一重要指標增強了我們對餐飲部門未來不斷增長的潛力的信心。

Moving to more good news on page 11, our Soup business also strengthened in Q4 and is building even more momentum in the latest 4 weeks, with dollar consumption up 2% and 6% respectively, as we head into soup season. Campbell's wet soup dollar consumption increased 2 points during the fourth quarter, surpassing the category average by approximately 1 point.

第11 頁上有更多好消息，我們的湯業務在第四季度也有所加強，並且在最近4 週內正在形成更大的勢頭，隨著我們進入湯季節，美元消費量分別增長2% 和6%。金寶湯的濕湯美元消費量在第四季度增加了 2 個百分點，超過該類別平均約 1 個百分點。

Notably, we did experience robust share gains in our Swanson broth business as a major private label supplier was experiencing supply constraints. It's important to note that although our share was helped by this dynamic, the category trends are also very healthy, up double digits, creating a great opportunity for Swanson to add new households.

值得注意的是，我們的斯旺森肉湯業務確實經歷了強勁的份額增長，因為一家主要的自有品牌供應商正面臨供應限制。值得注意的是，儘管我們的份額得益於這種動態，但品類趨勢也非常健康，呈兩位數增長，為斯旺森增加新家庭創造了絕佳機會。

Underlying category growth continues to benefit from the consumers pulling back on eating meals away from home, in favor of home cooking. The one remaining area of focus on soup is ready-to-serve where we are experiencing category pressure and some trading down.

潛在類別的成長繼續受益於消費者減少外出用餐，轉而在家做飯。剩下的一個重點領域是湯，我們正面臨類別壓力和一些交易下降。

We expect both dynamics to improve as the weather changes, and the role of ready-to-serve at lunch becomes more relevant. We are already seeing some stabilization and are confident about our robust pipeline of innovation and marketing across our Chunky, Pacific, and Rao's brands.

我們預計，隨著天氣變化，這兩種動態都會改善，午餐即食食品的角色將變得更加重要。我們已經看到了一些穩定的情況，並對我們的 Chunky、Pacific 和 Rao 品牌強大的創新和行銷管道充滿信心。

Overall, this quarter we also answered a very important question about soup, can soup grow volume mix after COVID and inflation? And it did, up nearly 2%.

總的來說，本季我們也回答了一個關於湯的非常重要的問題，在新冠疫情和通貨膨脹之後，湯的銷量能否成長？事實確實如此，上漲了近 2%。

Turning to Italian Sauces, slide 12 highlights our two market leading brands at the forefront of our $1 billion dollar sauces portfolio, Rao's and Prego. I could not be happier with the continued 4 strong growth of Rao's with in-market consumption in the high teens range. Rao's complements the steady performance of Prego which was up 2% in market.

談到義大利醬料，幻燈片 12 重點介紹了我們價值 10 億美元的醬料產品組合中處於領先地位的兩個市場領先品牌：Rao's 和 Prego。我對 Rao's 連續 4 年強勁增長感到非常高興，市場消費量在十幾歲範圍內。 Rao's 補充了 Prego 的穩定表現，市場上漲 2%。

This combination of brands that address different occasions and price points gives us a fantastic ability to grow overall share by meeting multiple consumer needs. We will provide more details on our expectations for Rao's at our investor day, but we remain very confident in our previously stated on-going growth rate of mid-single digits, with a high single digit growth expectation for fiscal '25.

這種針對不同場合和價位的品牌組合使我們能夠透過滿足多種消費者需求來增加整體份額。我們將在投資者日提供有關 Rao 的預期的更多詳細信息，但我們對之前所說的中個位數的持續增長率仍然非常有信心，並對 25 財年的高個位數增長預期。

The team on Sovos has done an excellent job during the integration, not only maintaining the business but advancing the growth and strategy across the portfolio. Slide 13 outlines a few reasons why we are confident in the continued growth of Rao's. Despite ranking as the number one Italian sauce brand in terms of dollar share, Rao's has about 50% of the household penetration and 60% of the SKU assortment of Prego.

Sovos 團隊在整合過程中做得非常出色，不僅維持了業務，而且推動了整個產品組合的成長和策略。投影片 13 概述了我們對 Rao's 持續成長充滿信心的幾個原因。儘管以美元份額計算，Rao's 是義大利第一大醬料品牌，但 Rao's 擁有約 50% 的家庭滲透率和 Prego 60% 的 SKU 品種。

There is also a significant opportunity to continue to build brand awareness as the team readies new marketing and innovation for fiscal 2025. Additionally, the brand is growing share across all economic demographics and is thriving amongst millennial consumers. In fact, Rao's is growing with millennials at a rate 2.8 times faster than the category.

隨著團隊為 2025 財年準備新的行銷和創新，還有一個繼續建立品牌知名度的重要機會。事實上，Rao’s 在千禧世代的成長速度比同類產品快 2.8 倍。

We are thrilled to see younger consumers embrace this ultra distinctive brand and believe this provides a strong foundation for us to build Rao's into a household staple in the future.

我們很高興看到年輕消費者接受這個獨特的品牌，並相信這為我們未來將 Rao's 打造成家庭必需品奠定了堅實的基礎。

Finally, on slide 14, just to remind everyone that our Meals & Beverages division also includes brands like Pace, Pacific and V8 Energy, all of which represent great opportunities for additional growth as leading brands in their respective, advantaged categories or segments.

最後，在投影片 14 上，只是提醒大家，我們的餐飲部門還包括 Pace、Pacific 和 V8 Energy 等品牌，所有這些品牌都代表著作為各自優勢類別或細分市場的領先品牌的巨大成長機會。

Turning to our Snacks business on Slide 15. Despite the 3% decline for the quarter, we saw many encouraging indicators. We were pleased to see continued improvement in vol mix as well as in market results compared to Q3. We did see some competitive pressure in salty snacks that we are addressing with targeted plans in place in Q1.

轉向幻燈片 15 上的零食業務。我們很高興看到與第三季相比，成交量組合以及市場業績持續改善。我們確實看到了鹹味零食的一些競爭壓力，我們正在第一季制定有針對性的計劃來解決這個問題。

It's important to note, much of that share pressure is not a result of pricing or promotional activity, but rather new entrants into our elevated segments like Kettle potato chips, or organic Better-for-You tortilla chips. Although we continue to see some investment in promotion going forward, we expect levels to remain competitive and disciplined.

值得注意的是，大部分份額壓力並不是定價或促銷活動的結果，而是我們高端細分市場的新進者，例如 Kettle 薯片或有機 Better-for-You 玉米片。儘管我們繼續看到一些促銷方面的投資，但我們預計等級將保持競爭性和紀律性。

It's important to remember that although managing price gaps is important, growing our elevated snacks brands will be more influenced by the impact of our innovation and marketing efforts. Those plans are particularly robust for fiscal 2025, giving us even more confidence.

重要的是要記住，儘管管理價格差距很重要，但我們的高端零食品牌的發展將更多地受到我們的創新和行銷努力的影響。這些計劃對於 2025 財年尤其強勁，讓我們更有信心。

On slide 16, I would like to quickly provide some additional color on the bridge between the in-market 1% decline and our overall 3% decline in organic net sales. There were 2 key drivers. First, as we expected, there was approximately a 1% reduction driven by partner and contract brands which I will explain a bit more about in a moment.

在投影片 16 上，我想快速提供一些關於市場內 1% 下降與有機淨銷售額整體下降 3% 之間橋樑的一些額外資訊。有兩個關鍵驅動因素。首先，正如我們預期的那樣，合作夥伴和合約品牌推動了大約 1% 的減少，我稍後將對此進行更多解釋。

Second, we cycled about a point of 5 favorable trade phasing in Q4 of fiscal '23 that created some additional pressure on pricing in the quarter. This is a one-time dynamic that we do not expect to repeat in fiscal 2025.

其次，我們在 23 財年第四季循環了 5 個有利的貿易階段，這給本季的定價帶來了一些額外的壓力。這是一種一次性動態，我們預計 2025 財年不會重演。

Let me go a bit deeper now on the partner and contract brands headwind. As you will likely recall, we have discussed the role of these Partner and Contract brands in the past. Partner brands are brands Campbell's does not own that we agree to sell through IDPs to improve the scale of their routes.

現在讓我更深入地談談合作夥伴和合約品牌的逆風。您可能還記得，我們​​過去已經討論過這些合作夥伴和合約品牌的角色。合作夥伴品牌是金寶湯不擁有的品牌，但我們同意透過 IDP 進行銷售，以提高其路線的規模。

Contract brands are products that Campbell's manufactures to support the scale of our manufacturing plants and are shipped to another company or customer. Although these businesses play an important role, on average they have approximately 50% lower variable contribution margin than our power brands and also in many cases support competitor's products.

合約品牌是金寶湯為支持我們製造工廠的規模而製造並運送給其他公司或客戶的產品。儘管這些業務發揮著重要作用，但平均而言，它們的可變貢獻邊際比我們的強勢品牌低約 50%，並且在許多情況下還支持競爭對手的產品。

So, as we grow our power brands and optimize our DSD and manufacturing network, our reliance on these businesses has gone down. Although there is a topline headwind in the near term, it is clearly the right strategic decision to focus more on our own brands and improve the mix of our business. We expect this trend to continue in fiscal '25, but as you can see we have been working this number down and reduced it by more than a half. We will provide a bit more detail on our destination for these businesses during Investor Day.

因此，隨著我們發展我們的實力品牌並優化我們的 DSD 和製造網絡，我們對這些業務的依賴已經下降。儘管短期內存在營收逆風，但更多地關注我們自己的品牌並改善我們的業務組合顯然是正確的策略決策。我們預計這一趨勢將在 25 財年繼續下去，但正如您所看到的，我們一直在努力降低這一數字，並將其減少了一半以上。我們將在投資者日期間提供有關這些企業目的地的更多詳細資訊。

In addition to the right sizing of partner and contract brands, and with a similar objective, we recently announced the sale of our Pop Secret business. Although a very strong brand in the microwave popcorn segment, we do not see the brand or the category as a core focus area for our snack business. While there will be a modest impact to net sales and EPS this year, we are confident that as we continue to refine our snacks portfolio, the continued focus will be a further enabler to faster and more profitable growth.

除了調整合作夥伴和合約品牌的規模外，出於類似的目標，我們最近也宣佈出售 Pop Secret 業務。儘管在微波爆米花領域是一個非常強大的品牌，但我們並不認為該品牌或類別是我們零食業務的核心重點領域。雖然今年的淨銷售額和每股盈餘將受到適度影響，但我們相信，隨著我們繼續完善零食產品組合，持續的關注將進一步推動更快、更有利可圖的成長。

As I mentioned earlier, we did experience some competitive pressure on our power brands in Q4, resulting in dollar consumption that was flat compared to the prior year. On a two-year basis, our Power brands did grow 9.5%. Moreover, we continued to see meaningful progress in the quarter on key brands like Goldfish which continued to drive in-market growth.

正如我之前提到的，我們的實力品牌在第四季度確實經歷了一些競爭壓力，導緻美元消耗與去年持平。兩年來，我們的 Power 品牌確實成長了 9.5%。此外，我們繼續看到金魚等主要品牌在本季度取得了有意義的進展，並繼續推動市場成長。

We believe strongly in the accelerated growth of these brands within our snacks portfolio and are responding to the near-term pressure by delivering strong innovation, increasing our marketing efforts and investing at sustainable and disciplined levels, as we continue to make strides towards our long-term goals for the category.

我們堅信這些品牌在我們的零食產品組合中會加速成長，並透過提供強有力的創新、加大行銷力度以及在可持續和嚴格的水平上進行投資來應對近期的壓力，同時我們將繼續朝著我們的長期目標邁進。

Another important focus area for fiscal '24 was delivering Snacks margin improvement, and I am pleased that despite the volatile environment, we were able to reach approximately 15% operating margin for the full year. This finish reflects 170 basis points of expansion over the last two years. We remain extremely confident in our savings and productivity roadmaps for Snacks, but we will always ensure that we are appropriately supporting our brands given our priority of growth.

24 財年的另一個重要重點領域是提高零食利潤率，我很高興儘管環境不穩定，但我們全年的營業利潤率仍能達到約 15%。這一結果反映了過去兩年 170 個基點的擴張。我們對零食的節省和生產力路線圖仍然非常有信心，但我們將始終確保考慮到我們的成長優先事項，並適當地支持我們的品牌。

As you will hear from Carrie in a moment, we are being measured in our fiscal '25 guidance for snacks margin improvement until we fully cycle the consumer and category recoveries. To that end, although we do expect margin progress in fiscal '25 on Snacks, we are targeting approximately 50 basis points of year-over-year improvement.

正如您稍後會聽到 Carrie 所說，我們正在根據 25 財年的零食利潤率改善指南進行衡量，直到我們完全實現消費者和品類復甦的循環。為此，儘管我們確實預計 25 財年零食業務的利潤率將取得進步，但我們的目標是比去年同期提高約 50 個基點。

Again, all savings initiatives remain on track and this moderation from our originally planned 100 basis points increase simply reflects the acceleration of planned marketing investment into this year reflecting the competitive environment and a near-term moderate margin headwind from the Pop Secret divestiture. We remain confident in our stated longer-term goal of 17% margins for Snacks. We will talk more about that path during Investor Day.

再次強調，所有儲蓄計劃均保持在正軌上，我們最初計劃的 100 個基點增幅的放緩只是反映了今年計劃營銷投資的加速，反映了競爭環境以及 Pop Secret 剝離帶來的近期適度利潤逆風。我們對零食利潤率達到 17% 的長期目標仍然充滿信心。我們將在投資者日期間更多地討論這條道路。

In summary, our fourth quarter performance was a solid close to fiscal '24 with steady progress across the business and against our strategic plan. We saw stabilizing trends in growth and volumes, compelling earnings with margin improvement and continued progress integrating Sovos Brands.

總之，我們第四季的業績與 2024 財年相比表現穩健，整個業務取得穩步進展，符合我們的策略計畫。我們看到了成長和銷售的穩定趨勢、利潤率的提高以及索沃斯品牌整合的持續進展。

I'd like to thank the entire Campbell's team for their hard work and commitment in finding ways to deliver in an ever-evolving consumer environment. I recognize that we are not fully through the consumer recovery yet, but I can clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel. This paired with the tremendous progress we have made in transforming Campbell's business is setting up what I believe will be a very exciting next chapter in our storied history. We look forward to laying out that chapter at our upcoming Investor Day on September 10 in New York.

我要感謝整個金寶湯團隊的辛勤工作和承諾，尋找在不斷變化的消費者環境中提供服務的方法。我意識到我們尚未完全經歷消費者復甦，但我可以清楚地看到隧道盡頭的曙光。這與我們在金寶湯業務轉型方面取得的巨大進展相結合，我相信這將是我們傳奇歷史中非常令人興奮的下一篇章。我們期待在即將到來的 9 月 10 日紐約投資者日上闡述這一章。

With that, let me turn it over to Carrie.

那麼，讓我把它交給嘉莉。

Thanks Mark, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with an overview of our fourth quarter including continued strong performance from the Sovos Brands acquisition. Fourth quarter reported net sales were up 11% driven by the contribution from Sovos. Organic net sales, excluding the impact of acquisitions, divestitures, and currency, decreased 1% compared to the prior year to $2 billion.

謝謝馬克，大家早安。我將首先概述我們的第四季度，包括收購 Sovos Brands 後持續強勁的業績。第四季淨銷售額在 Sovos 的貢獻推動下成長了 11%。剔除收購、資產剝離和貨幣影響的有機淨銷售額比上年下降 1%，至 20 億美元。

Importantly, as Mark mentioned earlier, we continued to show sequential volume improvement, moving into positive territory. Similar to third quarter, both adjusted EBIT and adjusted earnings per share increased double digits in Q4 with expansion in both adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBIT margin.

重要的是，正如馬克之前提到的，我們繼續表現出銷量的環比改善，進入積極的領域。與第三季類似，第四季調整後息稅前利潤和調整後每股盈餘均成長兩位數，調整後毛利率和調整後息稅前利潤率均有所擴大。

Adjusted EBIT increased 36% primarily due to higher adjusted gross profit from the contribution of Sovos and base business performance. Adjusted EPS increased 26% to $0.63, with the impact of the acquisition approximately neutral in the quarter, which as Mark mentioned, continued to exceed our expectations.

調整後息稅前利潤成長 36%，主要是由於 Sovos 和基本業務績效的貢獻帶來的調整後毛利增加。調整後每股收益成長 26% 至 0.63 美元，本季收購的影響大致為中性，正如 Mark 所提到的，這繼續超出我們的預期。

Turning to slide 23, on a full-year basis, Net Sales were up 3%, including four and a half months of sales contribution from the Sovos acquisition. Organic net sales decreased 1% compared to the prior year with unfavorable volume and mix partially offset by the benefit of net price realization.

轉向投影片 23，全年淨銷售額成長 3%，其中包括收購 Sovos 帶來的四個半月的銷售額貢獻。有機淨銷售額與上年相比下降 1%，不利的銷量和組合被淨價實現的收益部分抵消。

Our organic full year net sales result was in line with the low end of our guidance range, and we have now delivered two consecutive quarters of stable or growing year-over-year volume and mix. Full year adjusted EBIT increased 6%, driven by higher adjusted gross profit from the contribution of the acquisition and base business performance.

我們的全年有機淨銷售額結果與我們指導範圍的低端一致，我們現在已經連續兩個季度實現了穩定或同比增長的銷量和組合。全年調整後息稅前利潤成長 6%，得益於收購和基本業務績效貢獻帶來的調整後毛利增加。

Adjusted EBIT margin improved 50 basis points, driven primarily by an increase in adjusted gross margin. Full year adjusted EPS increased 3% to $3.08, with the impact of the acquisition approximately neutral during the fiscal year.

調整後息稅前利潤率提高了 50 個基點，主要是由於調整後毛利率的成長。全年調整後每股盈餘成長 3%，達到 3.08 美元，收購對本財年的影響大致為中性。

Moving to slide 24, organic net sales declined slightly in the quarter, as sequential improvement in volume and mix was more than offset by unfavorable net pricing. We did see volumes turn positive in the quarter within our Meals & Beverages division and neutral volumes in Snacks, and both divisions saw volume improvement in the quarter compared to Q3.

轉向幻燈片 24，本季有機淨銷售額略有下降，因為銷售量和產品組合的連續改善被不利的淨定價所抵消。我們確實看到本季餐飲和飲料部門的銷量轉為正數，零食部門的銷量為中性，與第三季度相比，這兩個部門的銷量都在本季度有所改善。

Looking ahead, we expect volume trends to continue to modestly improve as we move through fiscal '25. During the quarter, Sovos Brands added 12 percentage-points to reported net sales growth, which exceeded our expectations.

展望未來，我們預期隨著 25 財年的到來，銷售趨勢將持續小幅改善。本季度，Sovos Brands 報告的淨銷售額成長了 12 個百分點，超出了我們的預期。

On slide 25, fourth quarter adjusted gross profit margin expanded 80 basis points to 31.4%, consistent with Q3 margins and in line with our expectations. Drivers of margin expansion included supply chain productivity, lower other supply chain costs and favorable mix. These contributors more than offset unfavorable net price realization, moderate cost inflation and the impact of the Sovos Brands acquisition, which has a lower margin profile than the base business.

在投影片 25 上，第四季調整後毛利率擴大 80 個基點，達到 31.4%，與第三季的利潤率一致，也符合我們的預期。利潤率擴張的驅動因素包括供應鏈生產力、較低的其他供應鏈成本和有利的組合。這些貢獻足以抵消不利的淨價格實現、溫和的成本通膨以及 Sovos Brands 收購的影響，Sovos Brands 的利潤率低於基礎業務。

Core inflation in the quarter remained in the low-single digit range, consistent with rates we experienced throughout the year, and much lower than the 12% we reported for full year fiscal '23. We anticipate core inflation to remain in the low single digit range for fiscal '25 and we remain focused in areas of the portfolio where we still see higher year-over-year input costs, including olive oil, cocoa, and packaging costs, and other areas of persistent inflation, such as labor costs and warehousing costs.

本季的核心通膨率仍保持在低個位數範圍內，與我們全年經歷的通膨率一致，並且遠低於我們報告的 23 財年全年 12%。我們預計 25 財年的核心通膨率將維持在較低的個位數範圍內，我們仍將重點放在投入成本仍同比較高的投資組合領域，包括橄欖油、可可和包裝成本以及其他持續通膨的領域，例如勞動成本和倉儲成本。

In fiscal '24, we delivered $60 million of enterprise cost savings, reaching a cumulative $950 million of our $1 billion multi-year cost savings program. For the full year, our total productivity initiatives and cost savings programs more than offset the impact of inflation.

在 24 財年，我們實現了 6,000 萬美元的企業成本節約，在我們 10 億美元的多年成本節約計劃中累計達到 9.5 億美元。全年而言，我們的整體生產力舉措和成本節約計劃足以抵消通貨膨脹的影響。

Turning to slide 26, Q4 other operating items include adjusted marketing and selling expenses which decreased 4% to $187 million. The decrease was primarily driven by lower advertising and consumer expenses in the base business, as we lapped significant spending in the prior year. Reductions in advertising and customer expenses on the base business were partially offset by the impact of the Sovos Brands acquisition.

轉向投影片 26，第四季的其他營運項目包括調整後的行銷和銷售費用，下降 4% 至 1.87 億美元。下降的主要原因是基礎業務的廣告和消費者支出減少，因為我們在上一年減少了大量支出。基礎業務廣告和客戶費用的減少被 Sovos Brands 收購的影響部分抵消。

Fourth quarter adjusted administrative expenses modestly increased 1%, to $165 million. The added adjusted administrative costs from the acquisition were partially mitigated by lower incentive compensation costs and approximately $7 million in cost synergy realization in the quarter from our Sovos integration plan. This brings our total Sovos integration synergy capture to $10 million for fiscal '24.

第四季調整後的管理費用小幅增加 1%，達到 1.65 億美元。因收購而增加的調整後管理成本部分因激勵補償成本的降低以及我們的 Sovos 整合計劃在本季度實現的約 700 萬美元的成本協同效應而得到緩解。這使得我們 24 財年的 Sovos 整合綜效總額達到 1,000 萬美元。

As shown on slide 27, fourth quarter adjusted EBIT increased 36% and adjusted EBIT margin increased 260 basis points to 14.3%. This was primarily due to higher adjusted gross profit from the contribution of the acquisition and base business performance.

如投影片 27 所示，第四季調整後息稅前利潤成長 36%，調整後息稅前利潤率成長 260 個基點，達到 14.3%。這主要是由於收購和基本業務績效的貢獻帶來了更高的調整後毛利。

Lower adjusted marketing and selling expenses were offset by the modest increase in adjusted administrative and R&D costs, and an increase in adjusted other expenses, which were driven by higher amortization of intangible assets related to the acquisition, and lower pension and postretirement benefit income.

調整後的行銷和銷售費用的下降被調整後的管理和研發成本的小幅增加以及調整後的其他費用的增加所抵消，這些費用是由與收購相關的無形資產攤銷增加以及養老金和退休後福利收入減少所推動的。

On slide 28, adjusted EPS increased double digits to $0.63, primarily reflecting higher adjusted EBIT, partially offset by higher net interest expense related to higher levels of debt to fund the acquisition. As we mentioned earlier, the acquisition was approximately neutral to adjusted EPS in Q4 and to the full year.

在投影片28 中，調整後每股盈餘成長了兩位數，達到0.63 美元，主要反映了調整後息稅前利潤的增加，但部分被與為收購提供資金的債務水準較高相關的淨利息支出增加所抵消。正如我們之前提到的，此次收購對第四季和全年調整後每股盈餘的影響大致為中性。

In Meals & Beverages, fourth-quarter net sales increased 28% driven by the contribution of the Sovos Brands acquisition. Pro forma Q4 net sales growth for the division, as if we had owned Sovos for all of Q4 fiscal '23, would have been approximately 4%, driven by the respective pro forma Q4 growth of Sovos of 14%.

在餐飲和飲料領域，由於 Sovos Brands 收購的貢獻，第四季度淨銷售額成長了 28%。假設我們在 23 年第 4 季的整個財年都擁有 Sovos，該部門的預計第四季度淨銷售額增長將約為 4%，這是由 Sovos 相應的預計第四季度增長率 14% 推動的。

Organic net sales increased 1%, driven by gains in US Soup, foodservice and Prego pasta sauces, partially offset by declines in beverages. It was great to see year-over-year volume trends turn positive in the quarter for Meals & Beverages, with favorable volume and mix of 2%, partially offset by lower net price realization of 1%. In US soup, net sales increased 2% primarily due to an increase in broth, partially offset by decreases in ready-to-serve and condensed soups.

受美國湯、餐飲服務和 Prego 義大利麵醬成長的推動，有機淨銷售額成長 1%，但部分被飲料的下降所抵消。很高興看到本季餐飲和飲料的同比銷量趨勢轉為正值，銷量和組合達到 2%，部分被淨價實現下降 1% 所抵消。在美國湯品中，淨銷售額增加了 2%，主要是由於肉湯的增加，但部分被即食湯和濃縮湯的減少所抵消。

Additionally, fourth quarter operating earnings increased 60%, primarily driven by the contribution of the Sovos Brands acquisition, and higher gross profit in the base business. We were pleased with the Q4 Meals & Beverages operating margin of 17.6%, which improved 350 basis points as compared to the prior year, more than absorbing the impact of the recent acquisition, which, as I mentioned earlier, has a lower margin profile than the base business. For the full year, Meals & Beverages operating margins improved 30 basis points to 18.5%.

此外，第四季營業利潤成長了 60%，這主要得益於 Sovos Brands 收購的貢獻以及基礎業務毛利的提高。我們對第四季度餐飲業務營業利潤率為17.6% 感到滿意，比上年提高了350 個基點，遠遠超過了吸收最近收購的影響，正如我之前提到的，該業務的利潤率低於去年同期的水平。餐飲業務全年營業利潤率提高了 30 個基點，達到 18.5%。

Fourth quarter organic net sales in Snacks decreased 3%. Volume and mix trends sequentially improved to flat in the quarter with roughly 1% growth in Power brands and 1% reduction in Partner brands. In addition, we saw slightly more than a 2% unfavorable net price realization, of which approximately half was a planned increase in net pricing investment, and the balance reflecting the lapping of favorable trade phasing in Q4 of fiscal '23.

第四季零食的有機淨銷售額下降了 3%。本季銷售和組合趨勢連續改善至持平，其中實力品牌成長約 1%，合作夥伴品牌下降 1%。此外，我們還看到略高於 2% 的不利淨價實現，其中約一半是淨定價投資的計劃增加，餘額反映了 23 財年第四季有利貿易階段的結束。

Fourth quarter operating margin for Snacks increased 50 basis points to 14.5% and full year margin improved 40 basis points to end the year at 14.8%, generally aligned with our goal of reaching approximately 15% margins for the year as we navigated the on-going consumer recovery.

零食第四季的營業利潤率成長了50 個基點，達到14.5%，全年利潤率提高了40 個基點，年底達到14.8%，總體上符合我們在當前形勢下實現全年利潤率約15% 的目標。

We remain on track with our network and route-to-market initiatives as part of our margin roadmap, though as we think about fiscal '25, we will be a bit more conservative with a margin expectation modestly above 15% as volume trends continue to normalize and we absorb the near-term impact of the Pop Secret divestiture. This will give us some flexibility to remain competitive while supporting our brands and innovation launches this coming year, while staying focused on our long-term margin goal of 17%.

作為我們利潤路線圖的一部分，我們仍然按照我們的網絡和市場路線計劃走上正軌，儘管我們考慮到25 財年，隨著銷量趨勢繼續增長，我們將更加保守，利潤率預期略高於15% 。這將為我們提供一定的靈活性，以保持競爭力，同時支持我們來年的品牌和創新發布，同時繼續專注於 17% 的長期利潤目標。

Turning to slide 31, we generated strong cash flow from operations of nearly $1.2 billion in fiscal year '24. This result represented a 4% increase compared to the prior year, despite incurring one-time cash costs associated with the acquisition. fiscal '24 capital expenditures were $517 million as we continue to prioritize key growth and capability building investments, including capital requirements related to Sovos Brands.

轉向幻燈片 31，我們在 24 財年從營運中產生了近 12 億美元的強勁現金流。儘管產生了與收購相關的一次性現金成本，但這一結果比前一年增長了 4%。我們繼續優先考慮關鍵成長和能力建設投資，包括與 Sovos Brands 相關的資本要求，24 財年的資本支出為 5.17 億美元。

We also remain committed to returning cash to our shareholders, with $445 million of dividends paid and $67 million in anti-dilutive share repurchases during the fiscal year. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage at the end of the fourth quarter was 3.7 times, as expected. We remain committed to investment grade ratings and our goal to return to our 3 times net leverage target by the end of year 3 post-close.

我們也繼續致力於向股東返還現金，在本財年支付了 4.45 億美元的股息，並進行了 6,700 萬美元的反稀釋性股票回購。截至第四季末，我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 槓桿率為 3.7 倍，符合預期。我們仍然致力於投資級評級，並目標是在交屋後第 3 年年底之前恢復到 3 倍淨槓桿目標。

At the end of the Q4, we had approximately $108 million in cash and cash equivalents and ample liquidity under our revolving credit facility. Turning to slide 32. Our full-year fiscal '25 guidance reflects a balance between sequential progress, while also reflecting a reasonable range as we continue to navigate the on-going consumer recovery.

截至第四季末，我們的循環信貸安排下擁有約 1.08 億美元的現金和現金等價物以及充足的流動性。轉向投影片 32。

As a reminder, we completed the sale of our Pop Secret business earlier this week. The divestiture is estimated to reduce net sales by approximately 1 percentage-point and have a $0.04 earnings per share dilutive impact in fiscal '25, which is reflected in our full year guidance.

提醒一下，我們本週早些時候完成了 Pop Secret 業務的出售。此次剝離預計將導致淨銷售額減少約 1 個百分點，並對 25 財年的每股收益產生 0.04 美元的攤薄影響，這一點已反映在我們的全年指引中。

Fiscal '25 comprises 53 weeks, one additional week compared to fiscal '24. The benefit of the 53rd week is included in our fiscal '25 guidance and it is estimated to be worth approximately 2 points of net sales and adjusted EBIT growth, and approximately $0.06 cents of adjusted EPS. Full year reported net sales are expected to increase approximately 9% to 11%, which reflects a full twelve months of net sales contribution from Sovos Brands and the loss of eleven months of net sales from the divestiture of Pop Secret.

25 財年包括 53 週，比 24 財年多了一週。第 53 週的收益已包含在我們的 25 財年指導中，預計淨銷售額和調整後息稅前利潤增長約為 2 個百分點，調整後每股收益約為 0.06 美分。全年報告的淨銷售額預計將增長約 9% 至 11%，這反映了 Sovos Brands 整整 12 個月的淨銷售額貢獻以及 Pop Secret 剝離造成的 11 個月的淨銷售額損失。

As a reminder, Sovos moves into our organic growth calculation starting March 12, 2025. We expect Sovos Brands fiscal '25 pro forma net sales growth, as if we owned Sovos for all of fiscal '24, to be in the high-single digit range, following a year of double-digit growth. Rao's will lap its more significant distribution gains beginning in January.

提醒一下，Sovos 從2025 年3 月12 日開始進入我們的有機成長運算。數在經歷了一年兩位數的成長之後， Rao's 將從一月份開始實現更顯著的分銷收益。

Moving forward, we still expect long-term Sovos Brands net sales growth to be in the mid-single digit range. Full-year organic net sales growth is expected in a range of approximately flat to up 2%, reflecting the variability in the pace of consumer recovery. Our organic net sales growth expectations reflect modest positive volume and mix for the year.

展望未來，我們仍預期 Sovos Brands 的長期淨銷售額成長將在中個位數範圍內。全年有機淨銷售額成長預計在大約持平到成長 2% 的範圍內，反映了消費者復甦步伐的變化。我們的有機淨銷售成長預期反映了今年適度的正面銷售和組合。

In terms of phasing, we expect Q1 organic net sales growth to be relatively flat, a modest improvement from Q4, and for the balance of the year, we expect sequential improvement in the consumer environment. Importantly, for the second half, although we expect healthier category trends, we will be cycling the broth net sales benefit in fiscal '24 that was the result of private label supply constraints.

就分階段而言，我們預計第一季的有機淨銷售額成長將相對平穩，較第四季略有改善，而就今年剩餘時間而言，我們預計消費者環境將持續改善。重要的是，對於下半年，儘管我們預期品類趨勢將更加健康，但我們將在 24 財年循環利用自有品牌供應限制帶來的肉湯淨銷售收益。

We expect adjusted EBIT growth of 9% to 11%, including the operating income contribution of Sovos Brands and the impact of the divestiture of Pop Secret. As a reminder, the adjusted EBIT contribution of Sovos in our guidance includes stock-based compensation expense and acquisition-related depreciation and amortization expense, whereas historically when Sovos was a standalone company, these costs were not included in their adjusted results.

我們預計調整後息稅前利潤將成長 9% 至 11%，其中包括 Sovos Brands 的營業收入貢獻以及剝離 Pop Secret 的影響。需要提醒的是，我們的指引中Sovos 調整後的息稅前利潤貢獻包括股票補償費用以及與收購相關的折舊和攤銷費用，而歷史上，當Sovos 是一家獨立公司時，這些成本並未包含在其調整後的業績中。

Fiscal '25 transaction-related depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $18 million, in line with our original expectations. We expect full year core inflation in the low-single digit range, consistent with fiscal '24. We also expect productivity improvements of approximately 3% and enterprise cost savings of approximately $70 million, inclusive of $10 million in cost synergies related to the integration of Sovos.

25 財年與交易相關的折舊和攤提費用預計約為 1,800 萬美元，與我們最初的預期一致。我們預計全年核心通膨率將在低個位數範圍內，與 24 財年一致。我們也預計生產力將提高約 3%，企業成本將節省約 7,000 萬美元，其中包括與 Sovos 整合相關的 1,000 萬美元成本協同效應。

Of the $70 million, roughly one-third will benefit gross profit and two-thirds to be realized in the marketing, selling and general and administrative expense categories. Additionally, in line with our continued commitment to brand investments, we expect adjusted marketing and selling expense as a percent of net sales to return to our targeted range of 9% to 10%.

在 7000 萬美元中，大約三分之一將受益於毛利，三分之二將在行銷、銷售以及一般和管理費用類別中實現。此外，根據我們對品牌投資的持續承諾，我們預期調整後的行銷和銷售費用佔淨銷售額的百分比將回到我們 9% 至 10% 的目標範圍。

For Q1, we expect an increase in marketing and selling spend as compared to Q1 fiscal '24, with the addition of Sovos Brands expenses, as well as other targeted brand investments in the base business. Total company adjusted EBIT margin is expected to be similar to fiscal '24, with a modest improvement in adjusted gross margin, offset with the impact of the acquisition as it moves into our base for a full twelve months, as well as the normalization of incentive compensation, and higher levels of marketing & selling costs for the base business.

對於第一季度，我們預計與 24 財年第一季相比，行銷和銷售支出將會增加，加上 Sovos Brands 支出以及基礎業務中的其他有針對性的品牌投資。公司調整後的息稅前利潤率預計將與 24 財年相似，調整後的毛利率略有改善，抵消了收購的影響，因為收購進入我們的基地整整 12 個月，以及激勵正常化補償，以及基礎業務更高水準的行銷和銷售成本。

As mentioned earlier, Snacks operating margin is expected to be modestly above fiscal '24. Meals & Beverages operating margin is expected to be modestly lower, reflecting the mix impact of Sovos, partially offset by a modest margin improvement in the base business. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to increase 1% to 4% and be in a range of $3.12 to $3.22, including the $0.04 impact of the divestiture of Pop Secret.

如前所述，零食營業利潤率預計將略高於 24 財年。餐飲業務的營業利潤率預計將小幅下降，反映了 Sovos 的綜合影響，但部分被基礎業務利潤率的小幅改善所抵消。調整後每股盈餘預計將成長 1% 至 4%，範圍為 3.12 美元至 3.22 美元，其中包括剝離 Pop Secret 帶來的 0.04 美元影響。

We expect Sovos to be approximately neutral to adjusted EPS in fiscal '25. To provide a bit more clarity about the phasing of the year, in Q1, we would expect adjusted EPS to be in the mid to high $0.80 range, reflecting modest dilution impacts from the Sovos acquisition and Pop Secret divestiture, as well as brand investments within our targeted 9% to 10% range.

我們預期 Sovos 對 25 財年調整後每股盈餘的影響大致為中性。為了更清楚地說明今年的階段情況，我們預計第一季度調整後每股收益將在 0.80 美元的中高範圍內，反映了 Sovos 收購和 Pop Secret 剝離以及品牌投資帶來的適度稀釋影響。範圍是9% 到10%。

Full year adjusted net interest expense is expected to be between $350 million and $355 million. Net interest expense is higher than fiscal '24 reflecting a full year of incremental debt related to the acquisition and higher expected interest expense associated with the refinancing of our March 2025 bond maturities, with expected debt issuance timing driven by market conditions.

全年調整後淨利息支出預計在 3.5 億至 3.55 億美元之間。淨利息支出高於 24 財年，反映出全年與收購相關的增量債務以及與 2025 年 3 月債券到期再融資相關的預期利息支出較高，預計債務發行時間由市場狀況決定。

As I wrap up guidance, capital expenditures are expected to be approximately 5% of net sales. Our priorities for fiscal 2025 include key networking optimization initiatives across both divisions, capital related to the integration of Sovos, including IT investments, and completing our growth capacity investments in our Snacks division for Goldfish and Kettle brand chips.

在我總結指引時，資本支出預計約為淨銷售額的 5%。我們 2025 財年的優先事項包括跨兩個部門的關鍵網路優化舉措、與 Sovos 整合相關的資本（包括 IT 投資）以及完成對 Goldfish 和 Kettle 品牌晶片零食部門的成長能力投資。

We see great opportunity to reinvest into the business in support of growth and improved profitability. This remains very much aligned with our long-term algorithm and capital allocation priorities that we'll talk more about at our upcoming Investor Day.

我們看到了對業務進行再投資以支持成長和提高盈利能力的絕佳機會。這仍然與我們的長期演算法和資本配置優先事項非常一致，我們將在即將到來的投資者日更多地討論這一點。

To wrap up, we were pleased with our fourth quarter results, delivering double-digit growth in both adjusted EBIT and EPS, and margin expansion. As we head into fiscal '25, we remain encouraged by the continued expectation for improving volume trends in the business and sustaining the momentum following our first full quarter with Sovos Brands in our results.

總而言之，我們對第四季的業績感到滿意，調整後的息稅前利潤和每股盈餘都達到兩位數成長，利潤率也有所擴大。隨著我們進入 25 財年，我們仍然對業務銷售趨勢改善的持續預期感到鼓舞，並在我們與 Sovos Brands 合作的第一個完整季度的業績中保持這一勢頭。

With that, let me turn it over to the operator to begin Q&A.

接下來，我將其交給接線員開始問答。

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

Great. Good morning, everybody. Mark, and I'm sure there will be plenty of questions on Snacks. So maybe I'd like to focus a bit on Meals and Beverages to start. Organic sales rose 1%, right? 2% gain in volume. So, momentum clearly improving here even without Sovos being in the base. So I was hoping you could talk just a bit more about sort of the key drivers here and, I guess, more importantly, the sustainability, right, of these improved results, especially in the context of the industry supply in broth coming back later this calendar year.

偉大的。大家早安。馬克，我相信會有很多關於零食的問題。所以也許我想先專注在餐飲。有機銷售額成長了 1%，對嗎？成交量增加 2%。因此，即使索沃斯不在基地，這裡的勢頭也明顯改善。所以我希望你能多談談這裡的關鍵驅動因素，我想，更重要的是，這些改進結果的可持續性，特別是在今年晚些時候回來的肉湯行業供應的背景下歷年。

Yeah. So I think the first thing I just would say is that when you think about the consumer landscape that we're in right now, it's a good time to be in these categories. Meals & Beverages fit very well in a world where consumers are eating more in-home as we continue to see those numbers extremely high, the behavior of cooking and driving value and affordability along with convenience. We really couldn't have a better fitting set of brands for that. And I think that underpins a lot of the reasons why growth is continuing.

是的。因此，我認為我要說的第一件事是，當你考慮到我們現在所處的消費者格局時，現在是進入這些類別的好時機。餐點和飲料非常適合當今消費者更多在家吃飯的世界，因為我們繼續看到這個數字非常高，烹飪行為以及推動價值和負擔能力以及便利性。我們確實沒有比這更適合的品牌了。我認為這是持續成長的許多原因的基礎。

I do think it's important, though, that for a lot of investors I -- that I've spoken to, I think one of the big questions was, are you going to be able to get volume in the right direction on soup without mortgaging, if you will, the margin? And I think this was a great quarter to demonstrate that.

不過，我確實認為這很重要，對於我採訪過的許多投資者來說，我認為最大的問題之一是，你是否能夠在不抵押貸款的情況下獲得正確方向的交易量，如果你願意的話，保證金是多少？我認為這是一個很好的季度來證明這一點。

And even if you look into the latest four weeks as we go into Q1, the momentum on that business is really fairly broad-scaled, fairly universal across all of our segments, a little bit more work to do on ready-to-serve. I think that we continue to see consumers kind of choosing based on what the priority of the season is, and so, I do expect ready-to-serve and Chunky to have a stronger first half of the year. But the reality is, those businesses are in strong footing.

即使您回顧第一季的最近四個星期，該業務的勢頭確實相當廣泛，在我們所有細分市場中相當普遍，在準備服務方面還有更多工作要做。我認為我們繼續看到消費者根據季節的優先事項進行選擇，因此，我確實預計即食食品和厚實食品將在今年上半年表現強勁。但現實是，這些企業基礎穩固。

On share, there's no doubt that the broth dynamic with private label is helping, and we're seeing significant growth in broth and we have now for a couple of quarters. But I think what's interesting is, even if I account for the fact that we're a bit higher-priced than private label in the dollar growth of the category and the volume growth, the category still is very, very healthy. And all of that consumption is now happening with Swanson. So we feel really good about the trajectory of soup as we go into the season and into the holiday.

在分享方面，毫無疑問，自有品牌的肉湯動態正在發揮作用，我們看到肉湯的顯著增長，而且已經持續了幾個季度。但我認為有趣的是，即使我考慮到該類別的美元增長和銷量增長方面我們的價格比自有品牌高一點，該類別仍然非常非常健康。所有這些消費現在都發生在斯旺森身上。因此，當我們進入季節和假期時，我們對湯的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

I think as I pointed out, our sauce business has been good, right, was good, is good, and absolutely consistent belief that it will continue to do very well. It was great to see both Rao's and Prego growing, because I think they are very complementary in nature. You've got a mainstream Prego business that was doing well in the quarter.

我認為正如我所指出的，我們的醬料業務一直很好，對，很好，很好，並且絕對一致地相信它將繼續做得很好。很高興看到 Rao's 和 Prego 都在成長，因為我認為它們本質上是非常互補的。您的主流 Prego 業務在本季表現良好。

And then, of course, Rao's just continues to be the driver that it's been. The total brand in the fourth quarter for Rao's was up 25%. And as we've talked a lot, we haven't even really started the marketing and the next wave of innovation on that business.

當然，拉奧仍然是過去的推動者。 Rao's第四季的整體品牌成長了25%。正如我們已經談了很多，我們甚至還沒有真正開始該業務的營銷和下一波創新。

And so, our belief in that continuing to be a driver, albeit moderated as we cycle, you got to remember, this is almost $1 billion business now, growing at 25% is tough to imagine into perpetuity. But as we said in '25, we're expecting high-single-digit growth and longer term, that mid-single, which will continue to contribute and solidify Meals & Beverages as a steady grower.

因此，我們相信繼續成為驅動力，儘管隨著我們騎行的進行而有所緩和，但你必須記住，這是一項價值近10 億美元的業務，以25% 的速度增長，很難想像它會永遠持續下去。但正如我們在 25 年所說，我們預計將實現高個位數成長，並且從長遠來看，中單成長將繼續為餐飲和飲料行業的穩定成長做出貢獻並鞏固其地位。

Even if you've got some normalization of Meals & Beverages as you get into the back-half of the year, there's still enough going on in that business that gives us a lot of confidence that it can be a positive contributor, and I think that's kind of a new page, if you will, for Meals & Beverage.

即使進入下半年時餐飲業已經實現了一定程度的正常化，該業務仍然有足夠多的進展，這讓我們充滿信心，相信它可以成為積極的貢獻者，我認為如果你願意的話，這對於餐飲來說是一個新的頁面。

But as much as I love the Rao's growth continuing, I'd have to say the soup recovery and it being volume-driven was probably a more meaningful statement of belief in the division for the future.

但儘管我很喜歡 Rao 的持續增長，但我不得不說，湯的復甦和產量驅動可能是對未來部門信念的更有意義的聲明。

Got it. And then maybe just super briefly, because I know we have a lot to get through, just you've been very steadfast for a long time now in the broader industry kind of recovering is a more of a when, not if. It's obviously been longer than most would have expected. I think a lot of investors are still maybe somewhat more skeptical in this recovery just because we haven't seen it really in a really perceptible way in the data, broadly speaking, not just Campbell-specific. Maybe just really briefly, the rationale behind your belief in that --

知道了。然後也許只是非常簡短，因為我知道我們有很多事情需要克服，只是你在更廣泛的行業中已經非常堅定了很長一段時間，復甦更多的是一個時間，而不是如果。這顯然比大多數人預期的要長。我認為很多投資者對這次復甦可能仍然持懷疑態度，因為我們還沒有在數據中以真正明顯的方式看到它，從廣義上講，而不僅僅是坎貝爾特有的。也許只是簡單地講一下你相信這一點背後的理由——

Yes. I know a lot of doom and gloom. I'm not seeing it in the numbers, right? If anything, I know we'll talk about Snacks, I'm sure, at a moment. But even where I had some pressure on Snacks, it was far more share-driven than category-driven. A lot of the categories we're participating in, 75% of them are back to growth.

是的。我知道很多厄運和憂鬱。我在數字中沒有看到它，對嗎？如果有的話，我確定我們一會兒會討論零食。但即使我對零食有一些壓力，它也更多是份額驅動而不是品類驅動。在我們參與的許多類別中，75% 都恢復了成長。

Now, is Snacks all the way back to the historical growth level that I'm anxious for it to be at? No, not overall. But you had Kettle potato chips in the quarter was up 7%, you had pretzels up 4%. Our organic and natural tortillas were up 5%, cookies a little bit less, but still positive. And total snacking, even total salty was up 1%.

現在，零食是否已經回到了我所渴望的歷史成長水平？不，不是整體。但本季 Kettle 薯片上漲了 7%，椒鹽捲餅上漲了 4%。我們的有機和天然玉米餅上漲了 5%，餅乾上漲了一點，但仍然積極。零食總量，連鹹味總量也增加了 1%。

And I think the underlying metrics that I look at to determine what to expect coming forward continue to point to me to normalization. I mean, I always try to remind us that on the Campbell's business and Campbell Snacks right now, we're still cycling a near double-digit growth, I think 9% a year ago on total Snacks, 9.5% on the power brand.

我認為，我所關注的用於確定未來預期的基本指標繼續表明我正在走向正常化。我的意思是，我總是試圖提醒我們，在金寶湯的業務和金寶湯零食方面，我們目前仍在以接近兩位數的速度增長，我認為一年前零食總量增長了9%，強勢品牌成長了9.5%。

So yes, I think there's been a little bit longer runway for this than I would have liked, but I really don't see any indication from the data other than a little bit of a walk back on consumer confidence, which again -- and I don't want to diminish how tough it is for a lot of consumers that are out there, but I feel like we've cycled enough of this that we're beginning to see the normalization.

所以，是的，我認為這方面的跑道比我希望的要長一些，但除了消費者信心略有回落之外，我確實沒有從數據中看到任何跡象，這又是——而且我不想淡化許多消費者面臨的困難，但我覺得我們已經經歷了足夠的循環，我們開始看到正常化。

Again, you got soup up 6% in the latest four weeks, pasta sauce continues to grow, salsa is growing, really, most of the core businesses for us. So, as I said, Andrew, last quarter and continue to believe a lot of this matters about where you are, right? If you're in certain categories, I'm sure it still looks like recoveries are ways away, but I do think this is not going to be a linear journey, as we've said before. And I'm happy that many of our categories are probably a little bit on the upper edge of that curve and recovering. And even in a somewhat depressed recovery for snacking, our subsegments are doing quite well.

再說一遍，最近四週湯上漲了 6%，義大利麵醬持續成長，莎莎醬正在成長，實際上，這是我們大部分的核心業務。所以，正如我所說，安德魯，上個季度，仍然相信這對你所處的位置很重要，對吧？如果你屬於某些類別，我確信恢復看起來仍然很遙遠，但我確實認為這不會是一個線性的旅程，正如我們之前所說的。我很高興我們的許多類別可能都處於該曲線的上緣並正在恢復。即使零食的復甦有些低迷，我們的細分市場也表現得相當不錯。

Now, we've got some share and some new entrants into a couple of different categories we need to address, but I'd rather have that fight than a structural concern around the growth of the category.

現在，我們已經在幾個不同的類別中獲得了一些份額和一些新進入者，我們需要解決這些問題，但我寧願進行這場鬥爭，而不是對該類別的增長產生結構性擔憂。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

肯‧戈德曼，摩根大通。

Hi, thank you. I wanted to ask about Snacks. Mark, I appreciate that it's not so much promo that's acting as a headwind as much as competition from new entrants. But I'm curious, isn't this also a bit of a worry? And the reason I'm asking is, you're attacking the problem with innovation and marketing, it's great to see.

你好，謝謝。我想問一下關於零食的事。馬克，我很欣賞，與其說促銷是一種逆風，不如說是來自新進者的競爭。但我很好奇，這不也是一種擔心嗎？我問的原因是，你們正在透過創新和行銷來解決這個問題，很高興看到。

But this is a problem across a number of food categories that we're seeing, which is that challenger brands are taking share and intensifying. And yes, but I would rather have competition via innovation than discounting, sure. But I guess, maybe you could walk us through your confidence, that your actions will be enough to offset this trend?

但這是我們在許多食品類別中看到的問題，即挑戰者品牌正在搶佔份額並增加。是的，但我當然更願意透過創新來競爭，而不是打折。但我想，也許你可以向我們展示你的信心，你的行動足以抵銷這個趨勢？

Yes. So, it's a great question, Ken. I think the -- and I certainly wouldn't want to make this sound as if we're not extremely focused and really viewing this as an important area to focus on as we get into '25. But the way I look at this is, as I go across the places where we're experiencing the pressure -- and it's really in salty, right? So you have a new entrant in pretzels, you have a new entrant in Kettle and you have a new entrant in what I'd call better-for-you tortilla.

是的。所以，這是一個很好的問題，肯。我認為——我當然不想讓這聽起來好像我們沒有非常專注，也沒有真正將其視為進入 25 年後需要關注的一個重要領域。但我看待這個問題的方式是，當我走過我們正在經歷壓力的地方時——它真的很鹹，對吧？因此，椒鹽捲餅有了新的進入者，水壺有了新的進入者，我稱之為「對你更好的玉米餅」的新進入者也有了。

All of those are a concern, as you say. But as we look at what we have relative to the brands in the portfolio, so I look at pretzels and I say, okay, that one's been there for a while. I've got three brands that live in pretzels, right? I have Snyder's of Hanover, I have Snack Factory, and I've actually got Goldfish that plays a surprising large role in Pretzel.

正如你所說，所有這些都是令人擔憂的問題。但當我們審視我們的產品組合中與品牌相關的產品時，我看著椒鹽捲餅，我說，好吧，這已經存在了一段時間了。我有三個品牌的椒鹽捲餅，對嗎？我有漢諾威的斯奈德餐廳、小吃工廠，還有金魚，它在椒鹽捲餅中扮演了令人驚訝的重要角色。

I've got all three brands that I can bring to bear in the defense with innovation. And you're going to see when we get to Investor Day. By the way, for all three of these, we're going to really unpack for you the full kind of attack plan on how we see going after it, because it is important for us to do it. But that's an example of where I feel like the tools we've got.

我擁有所有三個品牌，可以透過創新來進行防禦。當我們到了投資者日時你就會看到。順便說一句，對於所有這三個方面，我們將真正為您解開完整的攻擊計劃，以了解我們如何看待它，因為這對我們來說很重要。但這是我覺得我們擁有的工具的一個例子。

Now, if I'm completely honest, I do think we need to have more marketing support in the plan to support the innovation we're driving, and you see that in our outlook and our guidance as we go into next year. I think on Kettle, I would say it's a little bit more of a me-too product and I've got this great two brands, Kettle and Cape Cod that I need to use more as a portfolio to drive winning in that category. And then on tortilla, we've got a great story on late July.

現在，如果我完全誠實的話，我確實認為我們需要在計劃中提供更多的行銷支援來支持我們正在推動的創新，您可以在我們進入明年的展望和指導中看到這一點。我認為對於 Kettle，我會說它更像是一款模仿產品，我擁有 Kettle 和 Cape Cod 這兩個偉大的品牌，我需要更多地使用它們作為產品組合來推動該類別的勝利。關於玉米餅，我們在七月下旬有一個很棒的故事。

And so, I think you hear me confident, really, for three reasons. One, I think our brands are well-positioned to defend. Two, I think the innovation and the marketing has not been at its peak while these have come in, so we've got to react and respond to that very well. And we're resourced for that and we've got the pipeline as we go into next year.

所以，我認為你聽到我充滿信心，真的，有三個原因。第一，我認為我們的品牌已經做好了捍衛的準備。第二，我認為創新和行銷尚未達到頂峰，因此我們必須對此做出很好的反應和回應。我們擁有這方面的資源，並且在進入明年時我們已經有了管道。

And again, I would say that I do not see these as an attack or a fight on price, but I do think it's quite important that our promotional frequency and then our price gaps remain reasonable. And so, you'll continue to see very modest -- under 100 basis points, with modest investment in some areas to ensure that we stay competitive.

再說一次，我想說，我不認為這些是對價格的攻擊或戰鬥，但我確實認為我們的促銷頻率和價格差距保持合理是非常重要的。因此，您將繼續看到非常溫和的利率——低於 100 個基點，並在某些領域進行適度投資，以確保我們保持競爭力。

So again, I don't want to over-portray that we've got this thing completely solved, but I do think we're in a really good position to address it. And again, if I'm in a category that's growing 9%, as an example in Kettle, that's not a horrible place to be to fight this fight. So I'm happy that we're seeing the recovery in our elevated subsegments of snacking. And look, we know this is a level-playing field and opportunity for us to win in-market, I'll always take that challenge.

再說一遍，我不想過度描述我們已經徹底解決了這個問題，但我確實認為我們處於解決這個問題的非常有利的位置。再說一遍，如果我屬於一個成長 9% 的類別（以 Kettle 為例），那麼這場鬥爭並不是一個可怕的地方。因此，我很高興看到零食細分市場的復甦。看，我們知道這是一個公平的競爭環境，也是我們贏得市場的機會，我將永遠接受這個挑戰。

Thank you for that, ask a very quick follow-up, you mentioned that certain parts of your guidance or maybe guidance in general is prudent. I won't go into that, but I did want to ask a specific question, which is that does your guidance assume a reversal in broth share next year? In other words, are you assuming that your broth share goes down?

謝謝您，請快速跟進，您提到您的指導的某些部分或整體指導可能是謹慎的。我不會詳細討論這一點，但我確實想問一個具體問題，即您的指導是否假設明年肉湯份額會發生逆轉？換句話說，你是否認為你的肉湯份額會下降？

It does.

確實如此。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Yes. In the second half of the year, we're anticipating kind of a normalization of share as -- now, having said that, we're going to fight like heck to keep all those households with Swanson. But I think from a prudent standpoint, we've seen a little bit of this normalization before, historically speaking, and so, we're using that as our kind of guideline for what the plan. And then I know the team's aggressively going after beating that.

是的。在今年下半年，我們預計份額將正常化——話雖如此，我們將竭盡全力讓所有這些家庭留在斯旺森。但我認為，從謹慎的角度來看，從歷史角度來看，我們之前已經看到過這種正常化的情況，因此，我們將其用作計劃的指導方針。然後我知道球隊在擊敗對手後會積極進取。

Thanks, Mark

謝謝，馬克

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

彼得‧加爾博，美國銀行。

Hey, guys, good morning, Mark, maybe if we can actually hone in a bit more on Snacks? I mean, your largest competitor has obviously talked about also just pressure that they're seeing, particularly in unseasoned or more plain potato chips, as well as tortilla chips. And just kind of the interaction you're seeing amongst late July kettle and Cape Cod?

嘿，夥計們，早上好，馬克，也許我們真的可以在零食上多磨練一下嗎？我的意思是，您最大的競爭對手顯然也談到了他們所看到的壓力，特別是在未調味或更普通的薯片以及玉米片方面。您在七月末的水壺和科德角之間看到了某種互動嗎？

And then maybe as a part B to that question, those three brands in particular, at least when I think about them, tend to be a bigger presence maybe in club channels. And just, is there a store format difference that you're noticing between club and maybe some of the smaller format stores, would be helpful.

然後也許作為這個問題的 B 部分，尤其是這三個品牌，至少當我想到它們時，往往會在俱樂部管道中佔據更大的份額。只是，您注意到俱樂部和一些小型商店之間的商店格式差異是否會有所幫助。

Yes. So there's definitely a bit more of bifurcation between what I would call the more mainstream segments and then what I would call the more elevated segments. So, for example, in Q4, I think potato chips as an overall subsegment grew by about 3%, which is not horrible, but about 3% and, arguably, with a bit more trade-down pressure and a little bit more promotional focus. We do have [Jay-Code], we call them our Allied brands. They're Jays potato chips.

是的。因此，我所說的更主流的細分市場和我所說的更高層次的細分市場之間肯定存在更多的分歧。例如，在第四季度，我認為薯片作為一個整體細分市場增長了約 3%，這並不可怕，但約 3%，並且可以說，有更多的降價壓力和更多的促銷重點。我們確實有[Jay-Code]，我們稱它們為我們的聯盟品牌。它們是傑斯薯片。

So we see a little bit of that in a very, very small part of our business. But in the main power brand area, all of those are operating in a more elevated space. And those seem to have been, one, recovering much faster as they do tend to index to a little bit more middle to upper-middle and higher-income households, which have been a fair degree more resilient.

所以我們在我們業務的非常非常小的部分看到了一點點。但在主要的實力品牌領域，所有這些都在更高的空間中運作。其一，這些經濟體的復甦速度似乎要快得多，因為它們確實傾向於針對中上中上和高收入家庭，而這些家庭在相當程度上更具彈性。

So I think where you are playing on that front, it does tend to be more driven by who's bringing the innovation, who's bringing the right marketing. Obviously, promotion plays a very important role and I'm not diminishing that. But at the end of the day, the fight is quite different at those elevated segments than it is in what I'd call the more lower and mainstream segments where we do see it a little bit more fight on price. We do see a little bit more traction in private label.

所以我認為你在這方面所做的事情確實往往更多地取決於誰帶來了創新，誰帶來了正確的營銷。顯然，促銷起著非常重要的作用，我不會削弱它。但歸根結底，這些高端細分市場的競爭與我所說的較低端和主流細分市場的競爭有很大不同，我們確實看到價格上的競爭更多。我們確實看到自有品牌的吸引力更大一些。

Probably, the category where we have a little bit more of that analog is on pretzels, where our base pretzel is -- we see a little bit more pressure there. But even there, I think Snyder's plays at a somewhat elevated level to that, and that helps our business or our portfolio, I think, playing a little more constructive of a way.

也許，我們有更多類似的類別是椒鹽捲餅，我們的基礎椒鹽捲餅就是——我們在那裡看到了更多的壓力。但即便如此，我認為史奈德的表現也比這更高，這有助於我們的業務或我們的投資組合，我認為，在某種程度上發揮更具建設性。

Okay. No, that's helpful. And maybe just as a follow-up to Ken's question, just to clarify on the organic sales guidance for the year, the first quarter being flat, I'm assuming then we should kind of see a step-down potentially in org sales kind of through the middle parts of the year, and then again maybe that ramp-up just as you hit the 53rd week in 4Q, which I think you're including in the organic sales guidance. So, maybe if you could just clarify that? Thanks very much.

好的。不，這很有幫助。也許只是作為肯問題的後續行動，只是為了澄清今年的有機銷售指導，第一季持平，我假設我們應該看到組織銷售的潛在下降到今年中期，然後可能會在第四季度進入第53 週時再次出現成長，我認為您已將其納入自然銷售指導中。那麼，也許你能澄清一下嗎？非常感謝。

Yes. So, 53rd week is not in organic sales.

是的。因此，第 53 週不屬於有機銷售。

Reported, but not in the organic.

報道過，但不是有機的。

Right. And maybe, Carrie, talk a little bit about the phasing of the year, but we do not see like a Q2 significant drop-off.

正確的。也許，嘉莉，談談今年的階段性情況，但我們認為第二季不會出現顯著下降。

No. And certainly as we think about second quarter, you got your benefit of your holiday season and a lot of our innovation starts to launch there. So, I would say that you need to take into consideration.

不。所以我想說你需要考慮一下。

And then as you move into the second half, I think the categories are still going to be healthy. So I still think you'll see that sequential improvement in category half, but what you are going to need to take into consideration, as Mark talked about on M&B, is the cycling of the broth, as our share normalizes in broth. So, you want to make sure that you're putting that into your model.

然後，當你進入下半年時，我認為這些類別仍然會很健康。所以我仍然認為你會看到一半類別的連續改善，但正如馬克在 M&B 上談到的那樣，你需要考慮的是肉湯的循環，因為我們在肉湯中的份額正常化。因此，您要確保將其放入您的模型中。

Yes, I think one of the ways to think about this is at the time that you're cycling a little bit of a broth headwind, I'm also expecting the Snacks business to be returning a bit more to normality as far as categories. So, I would plot your course for the year as a little bit more of a gradual improvement as we get into the second quarter and beyond, and then perhaps a little bit of a swap of who's kind of leading the drive, but in essence, kind of getting both businesses into what I would call a more normal trajectory.

是的，我認為思考這個問題的方法之一是，當你遇到一點肉湯逆風時，我也預計零食業務在類別方面會更多地恢復正常。因此，我將把你今年的路線規劃為隨著我們進入第二季度及以後的逐步改進，然後也許會稍微改變誰是領導者，但本質上，讓兩家公司進入我所說的更正常的軌道。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可萊弗里、派珀桑德勒。

Just to come back to the consumer thinking a little bit and maybe just trying to understand how you've balanced some risks. I know on some of the macro teams across the street, there's a soft landing versus recession debate, and I'll leave all that to them. But it does seem like there's a bias towards some risk as opposed to improvement. And I know you said you're looking at the data, but to some extent, that can also be trailing more than leading.

只是回到消費者的角度思考一下，也許只是想了解您是如何平衡一些風險的。我知道在街對面的一些宏觀團隊中，存在著軟著陸與經濟衰退的爭論，我將把所有這些都留給他們。但似乎確實存在一些偏向某些風險而非改善的情況。我知道你說過你正在查看數據，但在某種程度上，數據也可能落後於領先。

So, just curious maybe how you think about how you'd be positioned in a recession. Or if one comes, and who even knows, of course, what that might look like exactly, but would you expect to benefit from switches to more food at home, or you've got a -- now, especially with Sovos, a bit of a premium and some attractive value options for consumers' balance in your portfolio. How do you expect that to net out? Maybe just think about how you've kind of covered those bases?

所以，只是好奇你如何看待在經濟衰退時你會如何定位。或者，如果有人來了，當然，誰知道那會是什麼樣子，但是您是否期望從在家中轉向更多食物中受益，或者您現在有一個 - 現在，尤其是與 Sovos 一起，有點為您的投資組合中的消費者提供優質和一些有吸引力的價值選擇。您預計結果如何？也許想想你是如何涵蓋這些基礎的？

Yes. So the first thing I would say is, I think that although you hear a perhaps more bullish tone on the consumer landscape than maybe some others or even a bit contrarian to some of the points of view out there, more broadly speaking, I would tell you that we plan the year in a way where we're not expecting some radical, accelerated recovery.

是的。因此，我要說的第一件事是，我認為，儘管您聽到的消費者前景可能比其他人更樂觀，甚至與某些觀點有些相反，但更廣泛地說，我會告訴我們對今年的計劃並沒有預期會出現徹底的、加速的復甦。

In fact, I would say that we're expecting a relatively slow bounce-back as it relates to snacking, a more kind of normalized Meals & Beverage and then a bit of a flip, as I said, in the back half, where you'll see some headwinds from broth and perhaps a bit more normalized Meals & Beverage category and a more modest recovery on Snacks. You see that in the 0% to 2% range.

事實上，我想說的是，我們預計會出現相對緩慢的反彈，因為它與零食、一種更標準化的餐飲和飲料有關，然後會出現一點翻轉，正如我所說，在後半部分，你肉湯可能會帶來一些阻力，餐飲類別可能會更加正常化，零食的復甦也會更加溫和。您會看到該值在 0% 到 2% 的範圍內。

How do I feel if that environment gets a bit worse? I think there's two things that help me kind of calibrate the plan. The first is, it certainly would not suggest that what we're going to be cycling is the same kind of outsized growth and upside that we saw as we were cycling pricing in a variety of other positive, if you will, growth drivers, where your baseline is a relatively muted baseline. So let's imagine this hangs around a little longer than we would expect, I think, is not going to be perhaps as dramatic as the step-down that we saw after cycling two years or three years of just incredibly outsized growth.

如果環境變得更糟，我感覺如何？我認為有兩件事可以幫助我調整計劃。首先，它肯定不會表明我們將要循環的是與我們在各種其他積極的增長驅動因素（如果你願意的話）中循環定價時所看到的同樣的超額增長和上行空間，其中你的基線是一個相對柔和的基線。因此，讓我們想像一下，這種情況持續的時間比我們預期的要長一些，我認為，可能不會像我們在經歷了兩年或三年的令人難以置信的超額增長後所看到的那樣戲劇性下降。

I think the second thing that I would point to is, I do think this is a good time to have a portfolio like ours, where you've got a variety of different -- not an endless, but a variety of different categories that really do match as we've seen over the last year -- even now, right, where soup and broth, as people are eating more at-home, continue to benefit from that.

我想我要指出的第二件事是，我確實認為現在是擁有像我們這樣的投資組合的好時機，你有各種不同的——不是無窮無盡的，而是各種不同的類別，真正正如我們去年所看到的那樣——即使是現在，隨著人們在家吃得更多，湯和肉湯繼續從中受益。

And certainly, pasta sauce has been fairly resilient in almost any economic environment. I think Snacks, again, is a -- historically speaking, notwithstanding a little bit of what we're normalizing through right now, but Snacks has proven over time to be a bit more resilient in economic downturns.

當然，義大利麵醬幾乎在任何經濟環境下都具有相當的彈性。我認為，從歷史上看，零食是一種——儘管我們現在正在經歷一些正常化，但隨著時間的推移，零食已被證明在經濟低迷時期更具彈性。

And so, I think that the role that our brands play in the portfolio we have would set us up even in a tougher environment to be in a positive position. But I think that combination are both encouraging, but our plan does not assume that we're going to see this kind of more outsized recovery. That's why we said, look, I will say the consumer confidence to me is a very important metric and that was negative in Q4. And my description of the consumer would be a little bit more biased to positive, but still fragile. And so, I would not want to overestimate the certainty, if you will, of what the underlying dynamics may be pointing to.

因此，我認為我們的品牌在我們現有的產品組合中所扮演的角色將使我們即使在更艱難的環境中也能處於積極的地位。但我認為這種結合都是令人鼓舞的，但我們的計劃並不假設我們會看到這種更大規模的復甦。這就是為什麼我們說，看，我會說消費者信心對我來說是一個非常重要的指標，而第四季度是負面的。我對消費者的描述會更偏向積極，但仍然很脆弱。因此，如果你願意的話，我不想高估潛在動態可能指向的確定性。

That's great color. And then I'll just wrap up with a clarification, because I want to come back to the 53rd week. I had thought that I understood it and I think your answer just a second ago confused me. Because in the release, you say the benefit of the 53rd week is included in the fiscal '25 guidance below and is estimated to be worth approximately 2 points of growth to both reported and organic net sales and adjusted EBIT, along with $0.06 to EPS. In the EPS and organic growth numbers, where is the 53rd week? And do we --

那顏色真棒。最後我會做一個澄清，因為我想回到第 53 週。我以為我理解了，我想你剛才的回答讓我很困惑。因為在新聞稿中，您說第53 週的收益已包含在下面的25 財年指導中，並且預計報告淨銷售額和有機淨銷售額以及調整後息稅前利潤將增長約2 個百分點，每股收益為0.06 美元。在每股盈餘和有機成長數字中，第 53 週在哪裡？我們是否——

Yes. Just to clarify, in the organic growth, the benefit of the 53rd week has been removed.

是的。需要澄清的是，在有機成長中，第 53 週的收益已被刪除。

But in the EBIT and in the EPS --

但在息稅前利潤和每股盈餘中—

It is in there. Right. It's just in the organic net sales growth, Michael, that it's been --

它就在那裡。正確的。邁克爾，這只是有機淨銷售額成長——

Yes, we don't normally extract an organic EBITDA or EPS.

是的，我們通常不會提取有機 EBITDA 或 EPS。

Okay. Thanks so much.

好的。非常感謝。

Jim Salera, Stephens.

吉姆·薩萊拉，史蒂芬斯。

Hi, guys, good morning. Thanks for taking our question. Mark, I wanted to drill down on something you said earlier, talking about innovation in elevated segments and Snacks, which would speak to focus from your peers on middle to higher-income consumer.

嗨，夥計們，早安。感謝您提出我們的問題。馬克，我想深入研究您之前所說的內容，談論高端細分市場和零食的創新，這將表明您的同行將重點放在中高收入消費者身上。

But then you also mentioned Rao's has seen growth across all income segments, and that's despite being a premium product. Do you think that's reflective of consumer trade-down from food away from home? So, no matter what they're spending money on, if it's a brand like Rao's, they're still saving money compared to restaurants, or are there particular categories that consumers are willing to pay more for if the quality delivers right and they'll cut back elsewhere in their shop?

但你也提到 Rao’s 在所有收入領域都實現了成長，儘管這是一款優質產品。您認為這是否反映了消費者對外食的放棄？因此，無論他們在什麼方面花錢，如果是像Rao's 這樣的品牌，與餐館相比，他們仍然可以省錢，或者如果質量合格並且他們願意為某些特定類別支付更多費用，那麼他們會這樣做。

Yes. So, I would say, almost -- yes, you covered the what's in front of that. I absolutely see Rao's -- and I use this analogy a lot from prior life. I remember launching DiGiorno pizza many, many years ago. And the reality was -- is that although that, at the time, seemed like an incredibly expensive frozen pizza, as the frame of reference was expanded to include delivery, pizza had all of a sudden became a great value.

是的。所以，我想說，幾乎——是的，你已經涵蓋了前面的內容。我完全同意拉奧的觀點——而且我在前世中經常使用這個類比。我記得很多很多年前推出了 DiGiorno 披薩。現實是，儘管當時看起來像是一種極其昂貴的冷凍披薩，但隨著參考範圍擴大到包括送貨，披薩突然變得有價值。

I think that is very similar to the dynamic of Rao's, where you have this incredible quality that arguably at a much lower rate than a DoorDash order that is a mediocre Italian meal that you're paying $30, $40 for, paying $8 to $9 for a jar of Rao's and, hopefully, a couple more for a package of Rao's pasta, you're having a terrific Italian meal at-home. It's incredibly convenient and it is a better value.

我認為這與Rao's 的動態非常相似，在那裡你擁有令人難以置信的品質，而且價格可能比DoorDash 訂單低得多，這是一頓平庸的意大利餐，你要花30 美元、40 美元、8到9 美元才能買到。它非常方便，而且更有價值。

And I think that is why you are seeing Rao's experience growth across all of the economic sectors. And I think, to your point, maybe -- it's certainly true on Rao's, but I'd say also true on snacking is, you may be rationalizing some of your spend and the amount that you were buying on Snacks, but you also may decide that as I do that, I want to make sure that what I'm buying is something that I'm going to really enjoy. It might be a little bit more permissible, a little cleaner label.

我認為這就是為什麼你會看到拉奧在所有經濟領域的經驗不斷增長。我認為，就你的觀點而言，也許——這對拉奧來說當然是正確的，但我想說，對零食來說也是如此，你可能會合理化你的一些支出和你在零食上購買的數量，但你也可能決定當我這樣做時，我想確保我買的東西是我真正喜歡的東西。這可能是更允許的、更乾淨的標籤。

And so, what we've seen is this dynamic where some of the higher-end subsegments are more elevated, as we would describe them, to be more resilient. Now, it's not as prolific as Rao's extending into the lower income, but certainly, as we think about mid-income and high-income categories like Kettle potato chips and more natural organic tortilla chips have -- as a category have held up very well in both of those.

因此，我們看到的是這種動態，一些高端細分市場的地位更高，正如我們所描述的那樣，更具彈性。現在，它不像Rao 擴展到低收入群體那樣多產，但可以肯定的是，當我們考慮中等收入和高收入類別時，例如Kettle 薯片和更天然的有機玉米片，作為一個類別，它表現得非常好在這兩個方面。

That's great. And maybe if I could just sneak in one final question on that. How does that dynamic inform some of the marketing spend that you guys are going to be putting in in 2025, as we expect kind of a return to that 9% to 10% marketing and selling? Where is that incremental going to be put?

那太棒了。也許我可以順便問最後一個問題。這種動態如何影響你們將在 2025 年投入的一些行銷支出，因為我們預期行銷和銷售將回歸 9% 到 10%？增量將放在哪裡？

Yeah. So I think as I said earlier, I do not want to diminish how tough it is out there for a lot of consumers. So I think you will continue to see value-centric communication and messaging in many categories. And even on our more premium, it may be a little bit more about value in a different way, right. I mean, again, I think higher price does not preclude one from creating tremendous value.

是的。因此，我認為正如我之前所說，我不想削弱許多消費者的艱難處境。因此，我認為您將繼續在許多類別中看到以價值為中心的溝通和訊息傳遞。即使我們的溢價更高，它也可能以不同的方式更體現價值，對吧。我的意思是，我認為更高的價格並不妨礙人們創造巨大的價值。

So I think you will see that continue to be part of it. But I also think, as you think about where we're seeing pressure from new entrants or me-too products that are putting some share pressure on businesses, I think what you're going to see is what you should see from us, which is really leading the consumer thinking and bringing new to the world flavors, forms, products, while continuing to market against what makes our brands like Kettle and Cape Cod in late July so unique and differentiated.

所以我想你會看到這仍然是其中的一部分。但我也認為，當你想到我們在哪些方面看到了來自新進入者或模仿產品的壓力，這些產品給企業帶來了一些份額壓力，我認為你將會看到的是你應該從我們身上看到的，真正引領消費者思維，為世界帶來新的口味、形式和產品，同時繼續針對使我們的品牌（如Kettle 和Cape Cod）在7 月下旬變得如此獨特和差異化的品牌進行營銷。

So I think maybe, whereas this year, we went a little bit more all-in on value. I think what you're going to see us as we move into '25 is balancing that a bit between value, but also really getting back to, I think, a more focused effort on driving the equity and the news and innovation behind the brands. Because in the long run, in those elevated segments, that's going to determine winning, right? I mean, yes, a new product coming into the category puts some near-term pressure on. But as we cycle that distribution, I think we'll get a better impression of how we've done on ensuring that we really drive the equity in the news.

所以我想也許今年我們更重視價值。我認為，當我們進入 25 世紀時，您會看到我們在價值之間進行一點平衡，但我認為，我認為，我們也會真正回歸到更加專注於推動品牌背後的股權、新聞和創新。因為從長遠來看，在那些高端細分市場中，這將決定勝利，對嗎？我的意思是，是的，進入該類別的新產品會帶來一些短期壓力。但當我們循環分發時，我認為我們會對我們在確保真正推動新聞公平性方面所做的工作有更好的印象。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節已經結束了。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。