Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (CP) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Angela, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to CPKC's fourth quarter and full year 2025 conference call. This slide accompanying today's call are available at investor.cpkcr.com. (Operator Instructions)

午安.我叫安琪拉，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表 CPKC 歡迎各位參加 2025 年第四季及全年電話會議。本次電話會議的配套幻燈片可在 investor.cpkcr.com 上查看。（操作說明）

I would now like to introduce Chris De Bruyn, Vice President, Capital Markets to begin the conference call.

現在我謹介紹資本市場副總裁克里斯‧德布魯因先生開始這次電話會議。

Thank you, Angela. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I want to remind you this presentation contain forward-looking information. Actual results may differ. The risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could influence actual results are described on slide 2 in the earnings release filed with Canadian and US regulators. This presentation also contains non-GAAP measures outlined on slide 3.

謝謝你，安吉拉。各位下午好，感謝各位今天參加我們的節目。在開始之前，我想提醒各位，本次簡報包含前瞻性資訊。實際結果可能有所不同。可能影響實際結果的風險、不確定性和其他因素在提交給加拿大和美國監管機構的獲利報告第 2 頁中有詳細描述。本簡報也包含第 3 頁投影片中概述的非 GAAP 指標。

With me here today is Keith Creel, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Nadeem Velani, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; John Brooks, our Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer; and Mark Redd, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. The formal remarks will be followed by Q&A. In the interest of time, we would appreciate if you limit your questions to one. It's now my pleasure to introduce our President and CEO, Mr. Keith Creel.

今天與我一同出席的有：我們的總裁兼執行長 Keith Creel；我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Nadeem Velani；我們的執行副總裁兼首席行銷長 John Brooks；以及我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Mark Redd。正式致詞結束後將進行問答環節。為了節省時間，我們希望您將問題限制在一個問題以內。現在我榮幸地向大家介紹我們的總裁兼執行長基斯·克里爾先生。

Thanks, Chris, and good afternoon. We thank everyone for joining us to review our fourth quarter results as well as full-year results and to allow our team to share how we see an exciting 2026 playing out. Now let me start by expressing gratitude and thanks to the 20,000 strong CPKC family, who, through their dedication, hard work and sacrifice allow us to create the results that we're honored to share today. I can tell you this past week, railroading is a demanding way of life, in fact, a consuming way of life. Times like we have navigated through this past week and in fact, navigate on the daily in Canada.

謝謝你，克里斯，下午好。感謝大家與我們一起回顧第四季度業績以及全年業績，並讓我們的團隊分享我們對令人振奮的 2026 年的展望。首先，我要向擁有 20,000 名成員的 CPKC 大家庭表達感激和感謝，正是他們的奉獻、努力和犧牲，才讓我們能夠取得今天我們榮幸地與大家分享的成果。我可以告訴你，過去一周，鐵路運輸是一種要求很高的生活方式，實際上，是一種非常消耗精力的生活方式。就像我們過去一週所經歷的，事實上，在加拿大，我們每天都在經歷這樣的時期。

Operating in the winter operation reminds me of just how much sacrifice that takes, which I have the deepest amount of respect and appreciation for. So on to the results, for the fourth quarter, revenue of $3.9 billion, which is up 1% versus last year, an industry best operating ratio of 55.9%, 120 basis points of improvement and earnings per share of $1.33, up 3% versus last year.

冬季作業讓我更加深刻地體會到這需要付出多少犧牲，對此我致以最崇高的敬意和由衷的感謝。接下來是業績，第四季營收為 39 億美元，比去年同期成長 1%；營運比率為 55.9%，是業界最佳，提高了 120 個基點；每股收益為 1.33 美元，比去年同期成長 3%。

I'm particularly proud of the job the team did in the quarter, in the face of a demanding -- demand softening in a number of areas and how they honored our mantra of controlling what we can control in our cost structure. The team demonstrated exceptional execution that allowed us to produce the results we produced on the operating ratio side, and we are set up and carrying momentum well into 2026. As Mark is going to speak to, I also want to applaud the operating team for producing record results across several of our key operating metrics in the quarter.

我尤其為團隊在本季度所取得的成就感到自豪，他們面對諸多挑戰——包括許多領域的需求疲軟——並且始終秉持著控製成本結構中可控因素的原則。團隊展現了卓越的執行力，使我們能夠在營運比率方面取得這樣的成績，我們已經做好準備，並將這種勢頭延續到 2026 年。正如馬克接下來要提到的，我也要稱讚營運團隊，他們在本季的幾項關鍵營運指標上都取得了創紀錄的成績。

Most importantly, we produced another year of record safety performance. Our network is running well. It's in a great position to execute on the growth opportunities that we have lying ahead of us. Now let's turn our attention to full-year results. Revenue of $15.1 billion, which is up 4%; volume growth of 4% as well.

最重要的是，我們又一年取得了創紀錄的安全業績。我們的網路運作良好。它處於非常有利的位置，可以抓住我們面前的各種成長機會。現在讓我們把注意力轉向全年業績。營收達 151 億美元，年增 4%；銷量也成長了 4%。

Operating ratio at industry best at 59.9%, a clear industry best improvement of 140 basis points for the year. Core EPS of $4.61, which is up 8%. On '26 outlook, as we look forward in 2026, the way we see it unfolding, we fully expect to deliver another year of mid-single-digit volume growth enabled by the strength in our bulk business and particularly, the unique growth drivers the franchise has, which John will speak to. We expect to continue improving margins and ultimately deliver low double-digit earnings growth. For clarity, this outlook does not assume that we get much out of the macro.

營業比率為 59.9%，處於行業最佳水平，比上年同期提高了 140 個基點，明顯優於行業平均水平。核心每股收益為 4.61 美元，成長 8%。展望 2026 年，根據我們目前所看到的情況發展，我們完全有信心在 2026 年實現又一個中等個位數的銷量增長，這得益於我們大宗業務的強勁表現，尤其是特許經營所擁有的獨特增長動力，約翰將對此進行闡述。我們預計將繼續提高利潤率，並最終實現兩位數的低獲利成長。需要說明的是，這種觀點並不假設我們能從宏觀經濟中獲得太多好處。

Our growth drivers are unique to CPKC and record grain harvest in Canada and the US provides strong and a differentiating base of business. Our story is about continuing to do what we do best, controlling what we can control and executing our PSR model, which remains key to setting CPKC apart and allows us to shine in times of uncertainty. You saw that in the results in the last quarter, and you'll continue to see that in 2026.

我們的成長動力是CPKC獨有的，加拿大和美國創紀錄的糧食豐收為我們提供了強大且具有差異化的業務基礎。我們的故事就是繼續做我們最擅長的事，控制我們能控制的事，並執行我們的 PSR 模式，這仍然是 CPKC 脫穎而出的關鍵，並使我們能夠在不確定的時期大放異彩。你在上一季的業績中已經看到了這一點，而且在 2026 年你還將繼續看到這一點。

On the growth outlook, there are a lot of things to get excited about, uniquely enabled by this network. John will talk about them in more detail, but I'll highlight a few. Grain harvest, an all-time record in Canada, 85 million metric tons versus the previous record of 78 million metric tons, a significant amount of grain to move that's carried into the full year of 2026. That's a record harvest, both in Canada and the US. The grain is starting to move now, ingest.

展望未來，有很多令人興奮的事情，而這些事情都得益於這個網路的獨特優勢。約翰會更詳細地談論這些內容，但我會重點介紹幾個。加拿大糧食收成創歷史新高，達到 8,500 萬噸，而先前的紀錄為 7,800 萬噸，這意味著大量的糧食需要運輸，並將持續到 2026 年全年。加拿大和美國都取得了創紀錄的豐收。現在穀物開始移動了，攝取。

And again, we're going to be busy through the balance of this year, moving grain. Continued growth in intermodal, our MMX-180, 181, the fastest and most reliable service in the industry between the Midwest and deep into Mexico, continues to grow and do extremely well. And we're bringing that same model to Mexico and the US Southeast in partnership with CSX and our Southeast Mexico Express service. That business is just getting started to moving with our partners, we see a ton of opportunity for growth over that corridor is we've created an industry best transit time in partnership with CSX from Atlanta to Dallas over the Meridian Speedway and from Atlanta to Monterrey, truck-competitive to Dallas and superior to truck into Mexico.

今年剩下的時間裡，我們將繼續忙於糧食運輸。多式聯運業務持續成長，我們的 MMX-180、181 型列車（中西部地區與墨西哥腹地之間業界最快、最可靠的列車服務）持續成長，營運狀況非常好。我們將與 CSX 合作，透過我們的東南墨西哥快線服務，把同樣的模式引入墨西哥和美國東南部。這項業務才剛開始與我們的合作夥伴一起發展，我們看到了這條走廊上的巨大增長機會，因為我們與 CSX 合作，創造了從亞特蘭大經 Meridian Speedway 到達拉斯以及從亞特蘭大到蒙特雷的業內最佳運輸時間，其運輸速度與卡車運輸到達拉斯相當，並且優於卡車運輸到墨西哥。

It can't be replicated about truck into Mexico. We're also excited about the Americold business, that's ramping up this year along with the continued growth on the international intermodal side with Gemini and also continued growth in our automotive franchise. On the capital side, we're going to continue to invest to support the growth.

無法複製卡車進入墨西哥的情況。我們也對 Americold 業務感到興奮，該業務今年將加速發展，同時 Gemini 的國際多式聯運業務也將持續成長，我們的汽車特許經營業務也將持續成長。在資金方面，我們將繼續投資以支持成長。

Last week, we announced continued investment with our locomotives, 100 new locomotives joining the fleet in 2026 in addition to the 100 that we added in 2025. So with the combination of our strong top line growth, disciplined investment and our continued cost and efficiency improvements, it's put us in an advantageous position to return cash to shareholders, which you just witnessed as we announced a 5% share buyback program for 2026.

上週，我們宣布將繼續投資機車，除了 2025 年新增的 100 台機車外，2026 年還將有 100 台新機車加入車隊。因此，憑藉強勁的營收成長、嚴謹的投資以及持續的成本和效率提升，我們處於有利地位，可以向股東返還現金，正如你們剛才所看到的，我們宣布了一項 2026 年 5% 的股票回購計劃。

So in closing, I'm extremely proud of what we produced amidst a ton of volatility in 2025 and we're super excited about the opportunities ahead. I'll remind you that over the past two years, this franchise has outperformed the industry in revenue growth, outperformed the industry in earnings growth. We've got an exciting setup to continue to generate industry-leading performance in 2026 as well. So with that, I'm going to turn it over to Mark for some color on the operations. John will give you a little insight on the markets, Nadeem on the financial details, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

最後，我要說的是，我為我們在 2025 年充滿波動的市場中所取得的成就感到無比自豪，我們也對未來的機會感到無比興奮。我提醒各位，在過去的兩年裡，該特許經營品牌在收入增長方面超過了行業平均水平，在盈利增長方面也超過了行業平均水平。我們已經制定了令人振奮的計劃，以確保在 2026 年繼續保持業界領先的業績。那麼，接下來我將把麥克風交給馬克，讓他來詳細介紹一下這些操作。John 將為大家帶來一些市場的見解，Nadeem 將介紹一些財務細節，然後我們將開放問答環節。

Mark, over to you.

馬克，該你了。

Thank you, Keith, and good afternoon. I want to begin by recognizing the operating employees whose commitment to safe, reliable, efficient service continues to drive the strong performance of this network. The operating team did a tremendous job this quarter in delivering these results. Turning to the quarter, our network performed exceptionally well. We achieved record results across a number of key metrics, including train weight, train speed, locomotive productivity and car velocity.

謝謝你，基思，下午好。首先，我要表揚一下營運人員，他們對安全、可靠、高效服務的承諾，持續推動著該網路的強勁表現。營運團隊在本季度取得了這些業績，表現出色。回顧本季度，我們的網路表現非常出色。我們在多項關鍵指標上取得了創紀錄的成績，包括列車重量、列車速度、機車生產力和車廂速度。

These improvements can translate to faster cycle times, greater network capacity and faster, more reliable customer service. One thing I'm most proud of is -- proud to announce that 10 years in a row, CPKC has earned Amtrak's Best Carrier designation with an A+ performance. We're the only railroad with this distinction, and we appreciate the recognition from our valued partner.

這些改進可以轉化為更快的週期時間、更大的網路容量和更快、更可靠的客戶服務。我最引以為傲的一件事是——我很自豪地宣布，CPKC 連續 10 年榮獲 Amtrak 最佳承運商稱號，並獲得 A+ 評級。我們是唯一獲此殊榮的鐵路公司，我們感謝我們尊貴的合作夥伴給予的認可。

Taking a step back on progress, we have made substantial operating gains since the merger. When comparing our 2025 operational performance versus the time of merger of 2023, our combined network is 13% faster, locomotive is 13% more product -- productive, our car velocity is nearly 14% stronger.

回顧過去，自合併以來，我們在營運方面取得了顯著的進步。將我們 2025 年的營運表現與 2023 年合併時的表現進行比較，我們合併後的網路速度提高了 13%，機車的生產效率提高了 13%，我們的車輛速度提高了近 14%。

The improvement south of Kansas City is even more pronounced. Looking at 2025 speeds as being over 25% better, locomotive productivity improved roughly 20%. Looking forward, our operating systems, processes aligned across Canada and the US, we expect to deliver additional improvement in 2026. The foundation that we have built positions us for consistent execution and reliable service as volumes continue to grow. Now turning to safety for the quarter.

堪薩斯城以南地區的改善更為顯著。考慮到 2025 年的速度將提高 25% 以上，機車生產率將提高約 20%。展望未來，隨著我們在加拿大和美國之間的營運系統和流程協調一致，我們預計在 2026 年將取得進一步的改進。我們所建立的基礎使我們能夠在業務量持續成長的情況下，保持穩定的執行力和可靠的服務。現在來看本季的安全措施。

FRA train accident frequency was 0.91, which is 12% better. FRA personal injuries of 1.05, a 22% increase. When I look at full year 2025, our FRA train accident was 0.85, 16% better; personal injuries was 0.92, was 3% better. I continue to be encouraged by the industry-leading performance. For the third year in a row, CPKC has led lowest FRA reportable train accident frequency across the Class 1 railroads, building upon CP's legacy of 17 consecutive years, so all in all, it's two decades of best-in-class.

FRA列車事故發生率為0.91，比之前降低了12%。FRA人身傷害事故發生率為1.05，成長了22%。從 2025 年全年來看，我們的 FRA 列車事故發生率為 0.85，下降了 16%；人身傷害發生率為 0.92，下降了 3%。我對公司在行業內領先的業績持續感到鼓舞。CPKC 連續第三年成為一級鐵路中 FRA 可報告列車事故頻率最低的鐵路公司，延續了 CP 連續 17 年的輝煌戰績，總而言之，CPKC 已經保持了二十年的行業領先地位。

These results reflect the strength that we have in our Home Safe culture, our investments in technology, which helps prevent failures before they occur. Now turning to labor, we continue to make progress in this space. Earlier this month, we announced 16 5-year collective bargaining agreements in the US were ratified, covering 700 CPKC employees across the 11 states. These agreements reflect constructive collaboration with our unions and provide service with confidence, provide customers with service and reliability for our network.

這些結果反映了我們在「居家安全」文化方面的優勢，以及我們在技術方面的投入，這有助於在故障發生之前就加以預防。現在談到勞動力問題，我們在這個領域繼續取得進展。本月初，我們宣佈在美國批准了 16 項為期 5 年的集體談判協議，涵蓋了 11 個州的 700 名 CPKC 員工。這些協議體現了我們與工會的建設性合作，並能提供有信心的服務，為客戶提供我們網路的服務和可靠性。

Now turning to resources and capital, we remain well aligned with our growth outlook. In 2025, we supported 4% growth with 1% lower average head count, expect continued strong operating leverage in 2026. From a capital perspective, we did receive the 100 Tier IV locomotives in 2025. We have additional 100 scheduled for delivery this year. These locomotives are improving the efficiency and reliability of our fleet and positioning us for continued profitable growth.

現在來看資源和資金方面，我們與成長前景仍保持良好關係。2025 年，我們實現了 4% 的成長，平均員工人數減少了 1%，預計 2026 年將繼續保持強勁的營運槓桿作用。從資金角度來看，我們確實在 2025 年收到了 100 台 Tier IV 型機車。我們今年還計劃交付另外100台。這些機車提高了我們車隊的效率和可靠性，並為我們持續獲利成長奠定了基礎。

In 2026, we will continue our merger-related expansion commitments to the STB. This work includes CTC, additional sidings, Kansas City to Chicago corridor, but this also includes towards Shreveport. These upgrades are improving velocity on the North-South route, which is strengthening our customer service. In closing, the network is performing at record levels. We are properly resourced to handle grain harvest in Canada and US.

2026年，我們將繼續履行與合併相關的對STB的擴張承諾。這項工程包括 CTC、額外的側線、堪薩斯城至芝加哥走廊，但也包括通往什里夫波特的路段。這些升級提高了南北路線的運輸速度，從而加強了我們的客戶服務。總之，此網路效能達到了歷史最高水準。我們擁有充足的資源來處理加拿大和美國的糧食收割工作。

Our investments in capacity, safety and power are driving sustained meaningful performance gains. We're well positioned to execute our operating plan, support our customers and deliver on our commitments throughout 2026. And with that, I'll turn it to John.

我們在產能、安全和動力方面的投資正在推動持續且顯著的績效提升。我們已做好充分準備，在 2026 年執行我們的營運計劃，支援我們的客戶，並履行我們的承諾。接下來，我將把麥克風交給約翰。

All right. Thank you, Mark, and good afternoon, everyone. So this quarter showed the resilience of our book of business with growth across key segments and traction from new wins offsetting areas of deepening softness. Despite macro and tariff pressures, we delivered to our customers, we captured synergies, we maintained disciplined pricing and advanced initiatives that will support our growth in 2026. Now looking at our Q4 results.

好的。謝謝你，馬克，大家下午好。因此，本季我們的業務展現出了韌性，關鍵領域的成長和新客戶的加入抵消了部分疲軟地區的頹勢。儘管面臨宏觀經濟和關稅壓力，我們依然履行了對客戶的義務，實現了協同效應，保持了嚴格的定價策略，並推進了各項舉措，這些舉措將支持我們在 2026 年實現增長。現在來看我們第四季的業績。

This quarter, we delivered record revenue up 1% on flat RTMs. Cents per RTM was up 1%. Our pricing remained strong with renewals exceeding our long-term 3% to 4% outlook. Mix partially offset the pricing as longer length of haul and higher bulk traffic lowered our cents per RTM. Now taking a closer look at our fourth quarter revenue performance, I'll speak to an FX-adjusted results.

本季度，我們在RTM持平的情況下實現了創紀錄的1%的收入成長。每 RTM 價格上漲 1%。我們的定價依然強勁，續約率超過了我們長期預期的 3% 至 4%。組合因素部分抵消了價格上漲的影響，因為更長的運輸距離和更高的散貨運輸量降低了我們每 RTM 的成本。現在讓我們更仔細地看一下我們第四季的營收表現，我將談談經匯率調整後的結果。

Starting with bulk. Record grain revenues were up 4% on 2% volume growth. Our Canadian grain volumes were up 2% on a record harvest. Export volumes, however, lagged expectations as rain impacted the loading of vessels in Vancouver and farmers chose to store grain volumes, tempering the pace of shipments through the quarter.

從散裝開始。糧食收入創歷史新高，成長4%，而銷售成長2%。加拿大糧食產量增加了2%，創歷史新高。然而，由於溫哥華的降雨影響了船舶的裝載，農民選擇儲存糧食，導致本季的出貨速度放緩，出口量低於預期。

US grain volumes were also up 2%, with growth led by higher shipments to the P&W and down to Mexico. Our network continues to uncover new markets and this is especially visible with record-setting Q4 and full-year grain shipments into Mexico. Turning to the first half of 2026. The North American crop is shaping up to be a record both in Canada and the US. As Keith said, estimates points to an 85 million metric ton Canadian harvest, up 20% from last year.

美國糧食產量也增加了 2%，成長主要得益於運往普惠太平洋鐵路和墨西哥的糧食數量增加。我們的網路不斷開拓新市場，這點在第四季和全年對墨西哥的糧食出貨量創下歷史新高上體現得尤為明顯。展望2026年上半年。北美地區的作物產量可望創下紀錄，加拿大和美國的產量都將如此。正如基斯所說，據估計，加拿大今年的收成將達到 8,500 萬噸，比去年增加 20%。

We also have a record US corn crop and solid bean production that has recently started to move the market. Finally, we are encouraged by the recent canola trade settlements and new crush capacity coming online in the first half of the year that are going to further support our positive outlook for grain. Potash revenues were down 2% on 2% volume growth driven by higher export volumes through Vancouver. With solid demand fundamentals and Canpotex fully committed through the first quarter, we expect potash to remain a solid contributor to our overall base this year.

美國玉米也迎來了創紀錄的豐收，大豆產量也十分可觀，這些近期的豐收開始影響市場。最後，我們對近期油菜籽貿易結算以及今年上半年新增壓榨產能感到鼓舞，這些都將進一步支撐我們對糧食市場的樂觀預期。鉀肥收入下降了 2%，而銷量成長了 2%，這主要得益於經由溫哥華出口量增加。由於需求基本面穩健，且加拿大鉀肥公司（Canpotex）已全面投入第一季度，我們預計鉀肥今年仍將是我們整體業務的重要組成部分。

To round out both, coal revenue increased 2% on a 1% decline in volumes. Canadian coal volumes were lower, largely due to mix impact of lapping last year's work stoppage and maintenance at Westshore which ran from August into November. These declines were partially offset by higher volumes of US thermal coal. Moving to our merchandise franchise.

綜上所述，煤炭收入成長了 2%，而銷量下降了 1%。加拿大煤炭產量下降，主要是由於去年西岸煤礦停工和維護（從 8 月到 11 月）的綜合影響。這些下降被美國動力煤銷量的增加部分抵消。搬到我們的商品特許經營店。

Energy, chemicals and plastics revenue was down 3% on a 5% volume decline. Decline was driven by lower crude and refined fuel volumes to Mexico along with a softer base demand that primarily impacted our plastic shipments. This was partially offset by growth in LPG shipments from Canada to Mexico as we continue to capitalize and grow our land bridge opportunities. Looking ahead, we expect ECP volumes to stabilize as we move through 2026, although the base business in this industrial segment continues to be impacted by the softer macro environment. Forest Products revenue declined 13% on a 12% decrease in volumes.

能源、化學和塑膠產業的收入下降了 3%，銷量下降了 5%。墨西哥原油和成品油出口量下降，加上基礎需求疲軟，導致塑膠出貨量大幅減少。加拿大向墨西哥的液化石油氣出口成長部分抵消了這一影響，因為我們繼續利用和發展我們的陸路運輸機會。展望未來，我們預期隨著2026年的到來，ECP銷量將趨於穩定，儘管該工業領域的基礎業務仍會受到宏觀環境疲軟的影響。森林產品收入下降了 13%，銷售量下降了 12%。

Volumes were pressured by tariffs on Canadian lumber exports to the US, along with ongoing macro softness impacting our pulp and paper business. The team remains laser-focused on project development to continue to try to offset base demand softness and also through extending our length of haul. Metals, minerals and consumer products revenues and volumes were up 1%. Growth in this space was driven by industrial development and synergies with new business coming on in cement and other aggregates supporting construction projects across our network. This strength was partially offset by continued impact of tariffs on our cross-border steel business.

加拿大木材出口到美國需繳納關稅，加上宏觀經濟持續疲軟影響了我們的紙漿和造紙業務，導致銷售承壓。團隊將繼續全力投入專案開發，以抵消基礎需求疲軟的影響，並透過延長運輸距離來應對挑戰。金屬、礦產及消費品收入及銷售成長1%。該領域的成長是由工業發展以及與水泥和其他骨材等新業務的協同效應所推動的，這些新業務為我們網路中的建築項目提供支援。這項優勢被關稅對我們跨境鋼鐵業務的持續影響部分抵消。

Looking ahead, we remain focused on a number of industrial development opportunities as we continue to navigate the tariff and macro headwinds. Moving to automotive, revenue was down 3% on 1% volume growth. Our auto franchise delivered volume growth again this quarter despite the impact of production slowdowns along with aluminum supply challenges and a chip shortage, all which contributed a $30 million revenue headwind in the quarter. Looking ahead, despite ongoing certainty with production and auto sales projections, we expect to continue to outperform supported by business secured in 2025 that will benefit us in 2026. Now closing with intermodal.

展望未來，我們將繼續專注於一系列產業發展機遇，同時繼續應對關稅和宏觀經濟方面的不利因素。汽車產業方面，儘管銷量成長了 1%，但收入卻下降了 3%。儘管本季受到生產放緩、鋁供應挑戰和晶片短缺的影響，導致本季收入減少了 3,000 萬美元，但我們的汽車特許經營業務仍然實現了銷售成長。展望未來，儘管生產和汽車銷售預測具有一定的確定性，但我們預計在 2025 年獲得的業務支持下，我們將繼續取得優異的業績，這些業務將在 2026 年使我們受益。現在以多式聯運結束。

Revenue was up 3% on 4% volume growth. International intermodal volumes were up 5% on growth with our key ocean carrier partners and lapping the impact of last year's work stoppage at the Port of Vancouver. We remain encouraged by the strong performance of the Gemini alliance and the growth opportunities it is creating across our entire network. Comparisons will be more challenging in the first half of the year. However, the team is focused on the development of new product offerings at the Port Saint John and also down in Lazaro to enable share gains and volume growth to our network.

營收成長3%，銷量成長4%。國際多式聯運量成長了 5%，這得益於我們主要海運合作夥伴的成長，並抵消了去年溫哥華港停工的影響。我們對雙子座聯盟的強勁表現及其在我們整個網路中創造的成長機會感到鼓舞。上半年各項比較工作將更具挑戰性。然而，團隊正專注於在聖約翰港和拉扎羅開發新產品，以實現我們網路的市佔率成長和銷售成長。

Domestic intermodal volumes was up 3% in the quarter. We continue to deliver strong growth on our MMX train, which is up approximately 40% year-over-year. As Keith said, our new Americold business is also gaining traction with good visibility for a strong ramp-up as we continue to move through 2026. I'm also extremely excited about the new SMX product with CSX, connecting Dallas and Mexico to the US Southeast.

本季國內多式聯運量成長了3%。我們的 MMX 產品線持續保持強勁成長，較去年同期成長約 40%。正如基斯所說，我們的新 Americold 業務也正在取得進展，隨著我們繼續推進到 2026 年，其強勁成長前景十分樂觀。我也對與 CSX 合作推出的全新 SMX 產品感到非常興奮，該產品將達拉斯和墨西哥與美國東南部連接起來。

Like our Midwest Mexico product, the SMX train pairs will formally launch in the coming months and will offer the fastest, most reliable service product in these lanes. In closing, with record grain crops, our self-help initiatives, industrial development projects all coming online, we are well positioned to again offset tariffs and macro headwinds and deliver another year of mid-single-digit RTM growth. We remain focused on execution, disciplined pricing and continuing to capture the full value of our capacity network. With that, I'll pass it on to Nadeem.

與我們的中西部墨西哥產品一樣，SMX 列車對將在未來幾個月內正式推出，並將提供這些線路上最快、最可靠的服務產品。最後，憑藉創紀錄的糧食收成、我們的自助計劃以及所有工業發展項目，我們已做好充分準備，再次抵消關稅和宏觀經濟逆風，並實現又一個中等個位數的RTM增長年。我們將繼續專注於執行、嚴格定價，並繼續充分發揮我們產能網絡的價值。這樣，我就把它交給納迪姆了。

All right. Thanks, John, and good afternoon. I'm extremely pleased with the team's strong execution in the quarter. While we did deal with temporary demand softness in some areas, the team responded decisively with strong cost control and operational performance, demonstrating the strength and resiliency of our PSR-driven operating model. The ability to optimize assets, control costs and deliver operationally is embedded in our DNA as precision scheduled railroading at CPKC.

好的。謝謝你，約翰，下午好。我對團隊在本季度的出色表現非常滿意。雖然我們在某些​​地區確實遇到了暫時的需求疲軟，但團隊透過強有力的成本控制和營運績效做出了果斷的應對，展現了我們以PSR為驅動的營運模式的實力和韌性。在CPKC，優化資產、控製成本和高效運作的能力已融入我們的DNA中，成為精準調度鐵路運輸的基石。

Now turning to our fourth quarter on Slide 12, CPKC's reported operating ratio was 58.9%. Our core agenda operating ratio improved 120 basis points year-over-year to a CPKC record, 55.9%. Diluted earnings per share was $1.20, and core adjusted diluted EPS was $1.33, up 3% versus last year. Turning to our full year results on Slide 13, CPKC's reported operating ratio was 62.8%, and the core adjusted operating ratio improved 140 basis points to 59.9%. Diluted earnings per share was $4.51 and core adjusted diluted earnings per share was $4.61, up 8% year-over-year.

現在來看投影片 12 的第四季度，CPKC 報告的營業比率為 58.9%。我們的核心議程營運比率年增了 120 個基點，達到 CPKC 創紀錄的 55.9%。稀釋後每股收益為 1.20 美元，核心調整後稀釋每股收益為 1.33 美元，比去年增長 3%。翻到第 13 頁投影片上的全年業績，CPKC 報告的營業比率為 62.8%，核心調整後的營業比率提高了 140 個基點，達到 59.9%。稀釋後每股收益為 4.51 美元，核心調整後稀釋後每股收益為 4.61 美元，較去年同期成長 8%。

Taking a closer look at our expenses on Slide 14, I will speak to the year-over-year variances on an FX-adjusted basis. Comp and benefits expense, excluding adjustments, was $626 million, flat versus prior year. During the quarter, productivity gains from improved train weights, efficient resource planning and workforce optimization were offset by wage inflation. We expect continued strong labor productivity in 2026 with head count up slightly on mid-single-digit volume growth. Fuel expense was $430 million, down 8% year-over-year.

仔細看看第 14 頁投影片中的支出狀況，我將按匯率調整後的基礎談談年比差異。不計調整項，薪資福利支出為 6.26 億美元，與前一年持平。本季度，列車重量的提高、資源規劃的最佳化和勞動力的最佳化帶來的生產力提升被薪資上漲所抵銷。我們預計 2026 年勞動生產力將持續保持強勁成長，隨著個位數中段銷售成長，員工人數將略有增加。燃料支出為 4.3 億美元，年減 8%。

The decline was driven primarily by the elimination of the Canadian federal carbon tax on April 1 along with improved efficiency from increased train rates. Materials expense was $112 million. The year-over-year decline was primarily driven by an increased focus on capital works in the quarter. Equipment rents were $97 million, up 4% year-over-year. The increase was driven by higher intermodal car hire payments, reflecting the ramp-up of Gemini volumes and lapping the prior year's labor disruption at the Port of Vancouver.

此次下降的主要原因是加拿大聯邦政府於 4 月 1 日取消了碳稅，以及列車運力提高帶來的效率提升。材料費用為1.12億美元。年比下降的主要原因是本季更加重視資本工程。設備租賃收入為 9,700 萬美元，較去年同期成長 4%。成長主要受多式聯運汽車租賃付款增加的推動，反映了 Gemini 貨運量的增加，並彌補了前一年溫哥華港的勞工糾紛。

This increase was partially offset by efficiency gains driven by improved network velocity and car cycle times across the network. Depreciation and amortization was up 7%, resulting from a larger asset base. Purchased services and other expenses, including -- excluding adjustments, was $514 million. The year-over-year decline was driven by productivity and in-sourcing initiatives, partially offset by cost inflation and higher casualty. Moving below the line on Slide 15.

這一成長部分被網路速度和車輛行駛週期的提高所帶來的效率提升所抵消。由於資產規模擴大，折舊和攤提增加了 7%。購買的服務和其他費用（不包括調整）為 5.14 億美元。年比下降的原因是生產力提高和內部採購舉措，但部分被成本上漲和傷亡增加所抵消。移至第 15 張投影片下方。

Other components of net periodic benefit recovery were $94 million or $103 million, excluding acquisition-related costs. Net interest expense was $230 million or $225 million, excluding purchase accounting. The increase was driven by interest on new debt issued earlier in the year. Income tax expense was $400 million or $407 million adjusted for significant items of purchase accounting. The core adjusted effective tax rate in the quarter came in at approximately 25%, which is a $40 million headwind versus our Q4 2024 rate.

淨定期收益回收的其他組成部分為 9,400 萬美元或 1.03 億美元，不包括收購相關成本。淨利息支出為 2.3 億美元，若不計入購買會計處理，則為 2.25 億美元。此次成長主要受年初發行的新債利息支出所致。所得稅費用為 4 億美元，經重大採購會計項目調整後為 4.07 億美元。本季核心調整後有效稅率約為 25%，與我們 2024 年第四季的稅率相比，這將帶來 4,000 萬美元的不利影響。

In 2026, we expect a core adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 24.75%. Turning to Slide 16 and cash flow. 2025 net cash provided by operating activities increased 1% to $5.3 billion, while net cash used in financing activities was up 40%, driven by the share repurchase program. CapEx was $3.1 billion, above our $2.9 billion outlook, largely due to a pull-forward of maintenance capital projects during the fourth quarter to take advantage of work of weather and network conditions. In 2026, we are reducing our capital outlook by 15% to $2.65 billion.

預計到 2026 年，核心調整後有效稅率約為 24.75%。接下來看第16張投影片和現金流狀況。 2025年經營活動產生的淨現金流量成長1%至53億美元，而融資活動使用的淨現金流量成長40%，主要受股票回購計畫的推動。資本支出為 31 億美元，高於我們先前 29 億美元的預期，這主要是由於第四季度提前開展了維護性資本項目，以利用天氣和網路狀況帶來的有利條件。2026 年，我們將資本預期下調 15% 至 26.5 億美元。

Now turning to share repurchases. Throughout last year, we took advantage of market volatility to reward shareholders, completing our $37 million share repurchase program in late October. Given the strong value that we continue to see in our share price, I'm pleased to announce that our Board has approved a new 5% share repurchase program, allowing us to continue returning cash to shareholders through disciplined and opportunistic capital allocation.

現在轉向股票回購。去年，我們利用市場波動來回報股東，並在 10 月下旬完成了 3,700 萬美元的股票回購計畫。鑑於我們股價持續展現出的強勁價值，我很高興地宣布，董事會已批准一項新的 5% 股票回購計劃，使我們能夠透過有紀律和機會主義的資本配置繼續向股東返還現金。

Looking ahead, while macroeconomic conditions and trade policy remain uncertain, we are focused on what we can control, operating a safe, efficient and disciplined PSR railroad while capitalizing on our unique growth opportunities. We expect to deliver low double-digit earnings growth supported by another year of mid-single-digit RTM growth.

展望未來，儘管宏觀經濟狀況和貿易政策仍不明朗，但我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情，即安全、高效、有序地運營PSR鐵路，同時抓住我們獨特的成長機會。我們預計獲利將實現兩位數的低成長，這得益於連續第二年RTM（滾動市場規模）的中個位數成長。

With industry-leading execution, a compelling growth pipeline and strong free cash growth, the future is extremely bright. With that, let me turn it over back over to Keith.

憑藉著業界領先的執行力、令人矚目的成長前景和強勁的自由現金流成長，未來一片光明。那麼，現在讓我把麥克風交還給基斯。

Thanks, gentlemen. Operator, we'll open it up for questions.

謝謝各位先生。接線員，我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）Walter Spracklin，RBC 資本市場。

I'd like to double-click on your volume growth assumption -- or guidance here of mid-single digit. Obviously, last year ended a little weaker, and it hasn't started off well this year. We've got some weather that is going to create perhaps a little bit of leakage.

我想再次強調你們關於銷售成長的假設——或者說，你們給出的中位數個位數成長的指導意見。顯然，去年的收尾略顯疲軟，而今年的開局也不順利。目前的天氣狀況可能會造成一些洩漏。

Given that headwind, perhaps, obviously, mid-single digit is industry leading. Can you double-click a little bit on what sectors give you the confidence that you can achieve mid-single digit? And how much of that is the carryover of integration -- or a carryover of some of the wins that you got from last year? And how much is new wins that you're expecting this year?

考慮到這種不利因素，顯然，個位數中段的成長率已經是行業領先水準了。您能否簡要說明哪些產業讓您有信心達到個位數中段的成長率？其中有多少是整合帶來的成果，又有多少是去年取得的一些成果的延續？你預計今年能取得多少新的勝利？

Thanks, Walter. A couple of comments. So really up until last Friday, January was kind of playing out how we expected it to play out. Certainly, we realize we've got tougher comps. We had pull-ahead volumes in international and automotive and such.

謝謝你，沃特。幾點說明。所以直到上週五，一月的情況基本上都跟我們預期的一樣。當然，我們也意識到我們面臨更激烈的競爭。我們在國際市場、汽車產業等領域都有提前交付的訂單。

And frankly, we knew Q1 was going to be a little bit more of a challenge on that front, Walter. Certainly, this weather event was a little bit of a setback. But I'm also pretty optimistic on sort of what we had in our base plan for grain in February and March. And my gut sense and what our customers are telling us is there's a pretty good opportunity for us to exceed and claw back maybe some of that, that we gave away here the last week during that time period. There's no doubt, though, I do believe Q2, Q3, the balance of the year is where we'll see the momentum build.

坦白說，我們知道第一季在這方面會更具挑戰性，沃爾特。當然，這次天氣事件確實造成了一些挫折。但我對我們二月和三月的糧食基本計畫也相當樂觀。我的直覺以及客戶告訴我們的情況是，我們有很大的機會超越預期，並挽回上週那段時間我們損失的一些損失。不過，毫無疑問，我相信第二季、第三季以及今年剩餘的時間裡，我們將看到成長動能逐漸增強。

Specifically, I think grain is, as we've talked about, both sides of the border continues to be an opportunity. We've got a strong export potash plan. So our bulks, kind of a similar story to 2025, I think presents a really good opportunity for us. And then we kind of shift to the synergies and self-help initiatives, and that's where we've got to lean in and create our own luck. But I think that's something we've proved we've been able to do.

具體來說，我認為正如我們之前討論過的，糧食在邊境兩側仍然是一個機會。我們制定了強而有力的鉀肥出口計畫。所以，我們的大宗商品，有點像 2025 年的情況，我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。然後，我們需要轉向協同效應和自助舉措，而這正是我們需要積極參與並創造自己機會的地方。但我認為我們已經證明我們有能力做到這一點。

I look at intermodal. We still got a fair amount of growth on our MMX train that we'll be targeting. We're going to be launching the new SMX with CSX here in the coming months. And I can tell you, we're looking at transit times out of Central Mexico into markets of Atlanta, Charlotte, Jacksonville in roughly four days or less. This is going to be really fast.

我關注多式聯運。我們的 MMX 專案仍有相當大的成長空間，我們將繼續朝著這個目標努力。我們將在未來幾個月內與 CSX 合作推出全新的 SMX。我可以告訴你們，從墨西哥中部到亞特蘭大、夏洛特、傑克遜維爾等市場的運輸時間大約是四天或更短。速度會非常快。

As Keith said, better than truck-like service. And the early bidding prognosis, we're looking at current bids of about 80,000 loads a year with one particular client that we're working on. So I'm pretty optimistic around those opportunities.

正如基思所說，比卡車式的服務好得多。根據早期投標預測，我們正在與特定客戶合作，預計每年投標量約為 80,000 車次。所以我對這些機會相當樂觀。

We haven't scratched the surface on really our launch of the Americold building in Kansas City. And in that business, that reefer business, that is just starting to ramp up. And I'll remind you, up in Canada at Port Saint John, Americold will open their second building on us that will open up around the July time frame. So just in the intermodal sector, Walter, there's no doubt there's going to be headwinds and ongoing challenges, but I think we've created enough unique products in the marketplace that I think allow us to go out and sell and do things maybe a little differently than what our competitors do out there. And that gives me some confidence, particularly on those areas.

我們還沒有真正深入探討堪薩斯城 Americold 大樓的啟動事宜。而冷藏運輸業務，目前才剛開始蓬勃發展。我還要提醒大家，在加拿大聖約翰港，Americold公司將為我們開設第二座廠房，預計7月左右開幕。所以，沃爾特，就多式聯運領域而言，毫無疑問會面臨逆境和持續的挑戰，但我認為我們已經在市場上創造了足夠多的獨特產品，這使我們能夠出去銷售，並且做一些與競爭對手略有不同的事情。這讓我對這些領域更有信心。

I think one other point -- Walter, one other point of reference, I think it's important to remember we're going to lap that period of time in the second quarter, first part of third quarter, we implemented the cutover and I think someone classified as our CP (inaudible) time. When we integrated our IT system. So there obviously were some increased costs responding to that and some lost revenue, we'll lap that period given that the railroads humming and our systems are humming, and we've grown stronger as a result of that. So that's going to be a benefit for us in our '26 results.

我認為還有一點——沃爾特，還有一點需要注意，我認為重要的是要記住，我們將在第二季度、第三季度的前半段經歷那段時間，我們實施了切換，我認為有人將其歸類為我們的 CP（聽不清）時間。當我們整合IT系統時。因此，顯然應對這種情況會增加一些成本，也會造成一些收入損失。但鑑於鐵路和我們的系統運作良好，我們將度過這段時期，我們也因此變得更加強大。所以這對我們2026年的成績來說是個好消息。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

Brian Ossenbeck，摩根大通。

So Keith, I wanted to see if you could weigh in on reciprocal switching as it's been proposed right now. Obviously, yourselves and others have kind of grown up with that in Canada. Do you think that's really applicable to the US? Would you be concerned if that were to be extended to the US in terms of how it's proposed right now? And I guess, ultimately, do you expect the industry to have to deal with this, whether or not there is M&A?

所以基思，我想聽聽你對目前提出的互惠切換方案的看法。顯然，你們和其他人一樣，在加拿大長大，早已習慣了這種環境。你認為這真的適用於美國嗎？如果按照目前的提議方式，將該政策推廣到美國，您會感到擔憂嗎？我想，歸根究底，無論有沒有併購，你是否認為這個產業都必須面對這個問題？

Yes, number one, if you do your job and you provide good service, you don't have to worry about it. You don't have to worry about somebody coming in your backyard and being able to do better than you are. That said, what's being proposed now versus what's in Canada, there's still a unique difference. With the inter switch in Canada, you've got the other carrier handling the switch to the interchange location and then you take the line haul to the next destination. What they're proposing is literally what I started with that somebody else coming in and providing service.

是的，第一，如果你做好本職工作並提供優質服務，你就不必擔心。你不必擔心有人闖入你的後院，做得比你更好。也就是說，現在提出的方案與加拿大的方案之間仍存在顯著差異。在加拿大進行轉運時，由另一家承運商負責將貨物轉運到轉運地點，然後由您進行幹線運送到下一個目的地。他們提出的方案和我最初的想法完全一樣，就是讓其他人來提供服務。

So again, that said, if it were to happen, we'd respond to it. I don't see it as a threat to us at all. But ultimately, if a customer can't get their service, I agree they should have an alternative. They shouldn't be captive to terrible deteriorating service. I just think that, again, it needs to be fair. It needs to be balanced, and we need to think about the unintended consequences. It's not so complex that kind of what we go through ends up doing more damage to the customer than good.

所以，也就是說，如果這種情況發生，我們會做出回應。我完全不認為這對我們來說構成威脅。但歸根結底，如果客戶無法獲得所需服務，我同意他們應該有替代方案。他們不應該忍受糟糕且日益惡化的服務。我只是覺得，歸根究底，這件事必須公平。我們需要權衡利弊，並考慮可能產生的意外後果。事情並沒有那麼複雜，我們所經歷的這一切最終對客戶造成的傷害反而大於好處。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

I guess as you're thinking about 2026, I mean obviously, you finished '25 on a very strong note from an operating perspective, sub-56% OR. I guess how do you think about sort of the algorithm? When you're at a mid-single-digit RTM growth, I think pre sort of merger, we thought about the potential for that type of RTM to maybe drive decent OR improvement, potentially very high incremental margins and obviously, earnings power, and you're guiding to that. Kind of curious, how do you think about the OR potential as you move forward here? Obviously, for 2026, but maybe also bigger picture, are you kind of hitting stride?

我想，既然你在考慮 2026 年，我的意思是，很明顯，從營運角度來看，你在 2025 年的業績非常強勁，營運率低於 56%。我想問你對這個演算法有什麼看法？當 RTM 成長率達到個位數中段時，我認為在合併之前，我們考慮過這種 RTM 成長率有可能帶來不錯的 OR 改善，潛在的高增量利潤率，以及明顯的獲利能力，而你正在朝著這個方向努力。有點好奇，您如何看待OR在未來發展中的潛力？顯然，就 2026 年而言，或許從更宏觀的角度來看，你是否已經步入正軌了？

It seems like the network is running well. Just kind of get your thoughts on how you think about it as we move forward.

網路似乎運作良好。想聽聽你對此事的看法，以便我們繼續前進。

Yes, Chris. I mean, a year ago, we sat here, we talked about sub-60%, first we wanted to get to that level, which we've accomplished now. And beyond that, obviously, the goal isn't to just lower operating ratio but generate earnings and generate long-term return on invested capital. And so our earnings algorithm is kind of in that mid-single-digit RTM growth, layer on strong price and price to the value of our service. And then generate additional kind of value through free cash that's going to help bring it to the bottom line and get kind of that double-digit EPS growth over time.

是的，克里斯。我的意思是，一年前，我們坐在這裡，討論的是低於 60% 的目標，我們首先想要達到那個水平，而我們現在已經實現了。除此之外，顯然，目標不僅是降低營運比率，而是創造收益並獲得長期投資回報。因此，我們的獲利演算法大致是實現中等個位數的RTM成長，再加上強勁的價格以及價格與我們服務價值的匹配度。然後透過自由現金流創造更多價值，這將有助於提高利潤，並隨著時間的推移實現兩位數的每股盈餘成長。

So the operating leverage that I think we're going to get given the strong bulk opportunity we have in front of us, we're coming in, as you said, with a very solid footing as far as Q4 with our cost structure. We've done some things on the workforce side to help us get to a better spot.

因此，我認為鑑於我們面前強勁的大宗交易機會，我們將獲得營運槓桿效應。正如你所說，就第四季而言，我們的成本結構非常穩固。我們在員工方面採取了一些措施，以幫助我們達到更好的狀態。

From a resourcing point of view, we've got new locomotives coming in. I think there's opportunities on the fuel efficiency side and overall efficiency. So I do think kind of getting back into that 100 basis point type of operating ratio improvements per year if you're doing things right, if you are generating strong volumes and strong pricing, that should be how it plays out. So I think over time and kind of our long-term guidance of 100 basis point improvement in the OR is what you should expect from us if we're delivering and executing the way we should.

從資源角度來看，我們有新的機車即將投入使用。我認為在燃油效率和整體效率方面還有提升空間。所以我認為，如果你做對了，如果你能創造強勁的銷售和強勁的價格，那麼每年營運比率改善 100 個基點應該就是最終的結果。所以我認為，隨著時間的推移，如果我們按照應有的方式交付和執行，那麼你們應該期望我們在手術室方面取得 100 個基點的長期改進。

Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

Fadi Chamoun，BMO資本市場。

Just a couple of things. So on the revenue side, can you help us kind of bridge the volume to revenue? I think last year, you had a lot of mix issues and RTM revenues were kind of aligned. But as we think about this year, what does kind of -- mid-single-digit RTM mean to revenue, what's kind of the mix like as you look at the book of business that you're talking about? And maybe a quick one for Mark.

就兩件事。那麼在營收方面，您能否幫助我們達成銷售量與營收之間的有效銜接？我認為去年你們遇到了很多產品組合問題，RTM 收入也比較穩定。但當我們展望今年時，中等個位數的RTM（當月回報率）對收入意味著什麼？當你檢視你所說的業務組合時，情況又是如何的？或許還可以給馬克快速寫一篇。

Is the network set up to handle this book of business that John is talking about with current head count level? What are you envisioning on that front from a head count perspective?

目前的人員配置是否足以處理約翰所說的這部分業務？從人員配置的角度來看，您對此有何設想？

Yes, Fadi. So I think probably the Q1, Q2, we're probably going to see some of those challenges that you described, yes, given the strong bulk business in those quarters that we're projecting that maybe is a little less natural than what we would normally see, probably does create some of that mix headwind during that time period.

是的，法迪。所以我認為，第一季和第二季度，我們可能會遇到您所描述的一些挑戰，是的，考慮到我們預計這兩個季度的大宗業務強勁增長，這可能與我們通常看到的有所不同，可能會在那段時間造成一些不利影響。

Plus I would tell you, we had tariff impacts of north of $200 million, 1%, 1.5% of our revenue in RTMs. And a lot of those tariff impacts were on really profitable, positive cents per RTM business that just is not available to us under this tariff environment. So I expect to see kind of some headwinds earlier in the year and then see that stabilize. I think there's probably a couple of points, if RTMs and revenue matched up even in '25, there's probably a couple of points of upside on the revenue as we're looking towards 2026, if that helps you out.

另外，我還要告訴你，關稅對我們造成了超過 2 億美元的損失，占我們 RTM 收入的 1% 到 1.5%。許多關稅影響都波及到了利潤豐厚的 RTM 業務，在這種關稅環境下，我們根本無法開展這類業務。所以我預計今年年初會遇到一些不利因素，然後情況會趨於穩定。我認為，如果 RTM 和收入在 2025 年能夠匹配，那麼展望 2026 年，收入可能還有幾個百分點的成長空間，希望這對您有所幫助。

Yes, I would just add, in Q1, we'll lap the initial -- first, the carbon tax. So we got one more quarter of that or a couple more months here from where we are today. So that will be a bit of a headwind to mix. And then the Canadian dollar just continues to appreciate. So I think we're at about $1.35 today at Bank of Canada held.

是的，我還要補充一點，在第一季度，我們將超越最初的——首先是碳稅。所以，從今天的情況來看，我們還能再撐個季度，或是再撐幾個月。所以這會為混音帶來一些阻力。然後加幣繼續升值。所以我認為今天加拿大銀行的股價大約是 1.35 美元。

And a year ago, we were closer to $1.43. So that's going to be a headwind. Now it's going to help us on our leverage. It's going to help us overall as far as you think about our balance sheet from that perspective and interest payments and things like that. So there is a net benefit elsewhere, but it will hurt our cents per RTM.

一年前，我們的股價接近 1.43 美元。所以這將是一個不利因素。現在這將有助於我們提升談判籌碼。從資產負債表、利息支付等方面來看，這對我們整體上是有幫助的。所以從其他方面來看，這會帶來淨收益，但這會損害我們每 RTM 的收益。

Yes. On the head count, I would say some of my comments on -- the prepared comments was head count will be flat, slightly up. We'll have strong operating leverage as a result. And again, we're going to be focused on train size again. We've got some agreements that we're working through with some of our labor unions that will vest with that as far as head count. So we'll be working through that piece.

是的。關於人員數量，我想說的是——我之前準備好的評論是，人員數量將保持不變，略有上升。因此，我們將擁有強大的經營槓桿。我們將繼續關注列車規模。我們正在與一些工會達成一些協議，這些協議將與人員數量有關。所以接下來我們會一起研究這部分內容。

Yes. And Fadi, like nonemployee head count, contractors and so forth are kind of, for the most part, off the property as well in Q4 as part of our cost focus. So I think overall, I'm going to push Mark as well on keeping that low single digit or keep it closer to flat. So I think we can accommodate it.

是的。而法迪，就像非員工人數、承包商等等一樣，在第四季也基本上不在公司了，這是我們成本控制策略的一部分。所以我覺得總的來說，我也會督促馬克把失分率保持在個位數或接近持平。所以我覺得我們可以滿足這個要求。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

Jonathan Chappell，Evercore ISI。

Nadeem, I hate to be so short-term focused, but you know how it is in this seat. So John pointed out a lot of headwinds in 1Q. We had the weather and now you're talking -- carbon tax is still there, exchange a little bit. So as we think about the path to both the mid-single-digit RTMs, but most -- especially the double-digit EPS, are you thinking about a slower start to 1Q and then kind of a ramp as we go through the year? So not quite a hockey stick, but it does appear that we need to kind of make it up in the second half of the year, back half loaded?

納迪姆，我很不想只關注短期利益，但你也知道，身居此位意味著什麼。約翰指出第一季面臨許多不利因素。我們之前討論的是天氣，現在你們又在談論──碳稅依然存在，稍微交換一下。因此，當我們考慮實現個位數中段的 RTM 成長，尤其是兩位數的 EPS 成長時，您是否認為第一季會緩慢起步，然後隨著年內的成長而逐步提升？所以雖然沒有形成明顯的曲棍球棒狀曲線，但看起來我們確實需要在下半年奮起直追，下半年要全力以赴？

Yes. No, Q1 is going to be the toughest quarter of the year, and that's full-on expectation when you think about Liberation Day a year ago, everyone was moving traffic. Some tough compares. But to Keith's point earlier, we going to have some very easy compares in Q2, Q3 and so forth. So yes, it's going to be a tougher start to the year as far as the earnings algorithm.

是的。不，第一季將是今年最艱難的一個季度，想想一年前的解放日，每個人都在忙著疏導交通，這完全是意料之中。有些比較難度很高。但正如 Keith 之前所說，第二季、第三季以及之後的季度，我們將面臨一些非常容易比較的情況。所以，就獲利演算法而言，今年的開局將會更加艱難。

But no, I'm not concerned about that. And the carbon tax, that's net neutral to earnings. So I'm not -- that doesn't create a headwind at all, just it creates a bit of a headwind on cents per RTM, but it actually helps us in our margins overall.

不，我並不擔心。而碳稅對收益的影響是中性的。所以，這完全不會造成不利影響，只是對每 RTM 的幾分錢造成了一些不利影響，但實際上有助於我們的整體利潤率。

But it won't be a --

但這不會是--

It will be a natural increase, yes.

是的，這將是一個自然增長。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧香克爾，摩根士丹利。

So there's talk of the harbor maintenance tax exemption kind of potentially going away and kind of potential implications there. So I would love to know if you guys have any views on what impact there might be on cross-border volumes if it happens or not.

所以現在有傳言說港口維護稅豁免可能會取消，以及可能造成的影響。所以我想知道，如果這種情況發生或不發生，你們對跨境交易量可能產生的影響有什麼看法。

Frankly, Ravi, the cross-border volume business is so small in our book today specific to that. I really don't give it much credence or that much of a concern right now in our book, maybe four, five, five years ago, where certainly, we saw that volume much stronger. But at this point, I really don't see that being much of an impact if they change some of those fees or regulations.

坦白說，Ravi，就我們目前所知，跨境批量業務規模非常小。就我們目前的情況來看，我真的不太相信或不太擔心這個問題，也許四、五年前，我們確實看到過更強勁的交易量。但就目前而言，我認為即使他們改變一些費用或規定，也不會產生太大影響。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski，巴克萊銀行。

Keith, I'm kind of shot that hasn't come up yet, but I think everyone respects your view on M&A. And obviously, the application was rejected on some maybe technical grounds, maybe not. But nonetheless, maybe get your updated thoughts there and especially in regards to the development that you have with CSX going from Dallas and Texas and Mexico into the Southeast. Really appreciate it.

基思，我有點驚訝這個問題還沒被提及，但我認為大家都尊重你對併購的看法。很顯然，該申請被駁回，可能是出於技術原因，也可能不是。不過，或許你可以更新一下你的想法，特別是關於 CSX 從達拉斯、德州和墨西哥向東南部擴張的發展。非常感謝。

Okay. Well, I think we say everyone respects that might be true, but I don't think everyone agrees with my views. That said, they remain to be the same. I think that rejection by the STB said loudly what I believe to be true in the first place, the facts are going to matter. This is not a fate to complete.

好的。嗯，我覺得我們說每個人都尊重這一點可能是真的，但我認為並非每個人都同意我的觀點。也就是說，它們本質上還是一樣。我認為，STB的拒絕有力地證明了我一直以來所相信的真理：事實才是最重要的。這並非可以完成的命運。

This is a complex merger that has tremendous impact on the US rail network as well as Canadian and Mexico. It's all ultimately one network, but obviously, the STB is seized with making sure they do what's right to protect the strength of the US rail network, which supports the strength and obvious vitality of commerce and the economy in the United States of America. So again, it's not going to matter.

這是一項複雜的合併，對美國鐵路網絡以及加拿大和墨西哥都將產生巨大影響。歸根結底，它們都是一個網絡，但顯然，STB 的職責是確保他們採取正確的措施來保護美國鐵路網絡的實力，而美國鐵路網絡支撐著美國商業和經濟的實力和活力。所以，這根本無關緊要。

I think this is what they're saying about how the applicants may feel, just tell them what the facts are. That's what that said. And that application was short on facts. It had a lot of positives, a lot of aspirational growth projections in there. And I'm not saying they can't be achieved.

我認為他們想表達的是申請人可能會有這樣的感受，所以就告訴他們事實真相。上面就是這麼說的。而那份申請書缺乏事實根據。它有很多積極的方面，也包含了許多令人鼓舞的成長預測。我並不是說這些目標無法達成。

I'm saying that's a big bar to meet. And given that we're headquartered in Missouri now, I'd say it's the show-me stake. That's what we want. We want to see the facts. We want all the facts to be revealed so we all can opine on those facts and how they impact each of us, and that's railroads, that's customers, that's communities.

我的意思是，這標準很高。鑑於我們現在總部設在密蘇裡州，我認為這是實實在在的賭注。這正是我們想要的。我們想看到事實。我們希望所有事實都能被揭露，這樣我們所有人都可以對這些事實以及它們如何影響我們每個人發表意見，這影響到鐵路、客戶和社區。

There's a public interest test that has to be solved to, which includes strongly defined by enhanced competition. Those rules were written after the brakes were put on consolidation. Linda Morgan, who was chairing the STB back in 2001 when that moratorium was issued, she didn't just pump the brakes. She slammed the brakes on. And she went back and looked at what the nation needed going forward from a rail network standpoint.

必須通過一項公共利益測試，其中包括透過加強競爭來明確界定的公共利益。這些規則是在企業合併進程受到阻礙之後製定的。琳達摩根在 2001 年擔任新加坡電視委員會主席時，發布了這項暫停令，她並沒有隻是踩剎車。她猛踩煞車。然後她回過頭來，從鐵路網絡的角度審視了國家未來發展的需求。

And a lot of people would benefit if they would actually go back and read and study not just what's written in the regulations, but the perspective on that. And if you go back and turn the page to the hearings, the Senate Commerce Committee hearings, it's great waiting on a plane, print them out, it's pretty thick. But you know what, you can get her perspective and how those rules were shaped. And I'm telling you, when you read the regulations, they're not always clearly prescriptive. Sometimes they are, sometimes they're black and white like one of the issues that UP's application got rejected on.

如果人們能夠真正回過頭來，認真閱讀和研究法規中不僅寫明的內容，還要了解法規背後的含義，那麼很多人都會從中受益。如果你翻回前面，翻到參議院商務委員會的聽證會那一頁，在飛機上等飛機的時候，把它們印出來，內容很厚，非常實用。但你知道嗎，你可以了解她的觀點以及這些規則是如何形成的。我告訴你，當你閱讀相關規定時，你會發現它們並不總是清晰明確。有時候是這樣，有時候則非黑即白，就像UP的申請被拒絕的其中一個問題一樣。

But a lot of times, it's the words that are used, it's the comments, it's the context. And if you go back and do your homework, which I think is critically important to do, the perspective, she said it in her own words and testimony. And I'll just give it to you. The new rules encourage enhancement of competition. The old rules actually encourage railroad mergers.

但很多時候，關鍵在於使用的措詞、評論和脈絡。如果你回去認真做功課（我認為這至關重要），你會發現，她用自己的話語和證詞表達了這種觀點。我就把它給你吧。新規旨在促進競爭。舊規則實際上鼓勵鐵路合併。

The new rules substantially increased the burden of proof for the applicant to demonstrate that the proposed transaction will be in the public interest. It must demonstrate the transaction with enhance competition where necessary to offset the negative effects of the merger. So you can't understand if that's true unless you understand what all the adverse effects are as well. And another comment she made that I think is extremely telling when she was pressed to explain what enhanced competition means. She said Senator simply said this way, the benefits box must be fuller than the harm box.

新規大幅增加了申請人證明擬議交易符合公共利益的舉證責任。它必須證明該交易將在必要時增強競爭，以抵消合併的負面影響。所以，除非你了解所有的不良影響，否則你無法判斷這是不是真的。當被問到「加強競爭」的含義時，她也發表了另一番言論，我認為這番言論非常能說明問題。她說，參議員只是簡單地表示，好處欄必須比傷害欄更滿。

So how can you determine if that's true or not true unless you know the facts that are contained in both boxes. And I tell you, this is a forever decision. This regulatory body, Chairman Fuchs and the members that serve the Chairman Fuchs are going to take this responsibility seriously. Again, it's not going to matter what the applicants think or feel as good as it may be to them, and I believe UP. I believe the Board, I believe Jim Bennett, they believe it's good for the nation.

那麼，除非你知道兩個盒子裡所包含的事實，否則你怎麼能確定這是真是假呢？我告訴你，這是一個影響深遠的決定。這個監管機構、主席福克斯以及為總統福克斯服務的成員將認真履行這項職責。再說一遍，申請人的想法或感受並不重要，儘管這對他們來說可能很好，而且我相信UP。我相信董事會，我相信吉姆貝內特，他們認為這對國家有好處。

They believe it's good for their shareholders. They believe it's good for their employees. And that can be true. But does that also mean it's true for all the other concerned parties. Is that true for the industry?

他們認為這對股東有好處。他們認為這對員工有好處。這確實有可能。但這是否也意味著其他所有相關方的情況也是如此？這種情況適用於整個產業嗎？

Does that represent the risk of additional consolidation and something that large being created and the integration risk that it creates for the nation? Because if it fails, we're in trouble. The nation could be brought to its needs with something that large affecting our entire rail transportation system in North America and it affect every shipper, affect every railroad, affect commerce. So they have to get it right. It has to be a fulsome process.

這是否意味著進一步的合併以及由此產生的大規模合併所帶來的風險，以及由此為國家帶來的整合風險？因為如果失敗了，我們就麻煩了。如此重大的事件可能會影響整個北美鐵路運輸系統，影響到每一位托運人、每一條鐵路、每一個商業環節，從而給國家帶來災難性的後果。所以他們必須確保萬無一失。這必須是一個完整的過程。

Jim, I heard Jim yesterday, he wants all the facts to be heard and known, then let's make them heard and known because that's the only way to get the decision. And in the end, I believe this regulatory body, the regulations require, and I believe they're committed to if their application could demonstrate that the benefits outweigh the harms, then they've got a good chance of approval.

吉姆，我昨天聽吉姆說，他希望所有事實都能被聽到和了解，那麼我們就讓這些事實被聽到和了解，因為這是做出決定的唯一途徑。最後，我相信這個監管機構，按照相關規定，而且我相信他們也致力於此，如果他們的申請能夠證明其益處大於弊端，那麼他們就有很大的機會獲得批准。

That said, for that to be true, in my mind, based on the regulations and based on that definition of enhanced competition, it's going to have to come with concessions -- considerable concessions. To suggest that you're meeting a definition of enhanced competition because you introduce the [CGP] proposition, this mechanism that they introduced, if that's the definition, then why does it have an expiry date? And if that meets the definition of a forever decision beyond the expiry date, how can you exclude railroads, I think they deemed it Canadian railroads that originate traffic west of Mississippi and ship to destinations east and vice versa.

也就是說，在我看來，根據相關規定和加強競爭的定義，要實現這一點，就必須做出讓步——相當大的讓步。如果說引入 [CGP] 方案（他們引入的這種機制）就符合增強競爭的定義，那麼如果這就是定義，為什麼它有失效日期呢？如果這符合超過有效期後永久決定的定義，你怎麼能將鐵路排除在外？我認為他們認定的是加拿大鐵路，其貨運始於密西西比河以西，運往東部目的地，反之亦然。

Those are American-generated shipments going to American locations. That's part of making America great again. And I guarantee President Trump means what he says, he wants what's best for the nation. The STB wants what's best for the nation. CPKC wants what's best for the nation.

這些都是美國製造、運往美國各地的貨物。這是讓美國再次偉大的一部分。我保證川普總統言出必行，他一心一意為國家著想。機載廣播委員會希望國家利益最大化。CPKC 希望國家利益最大化。

It's critically important to us and every other concerned stakeholder that's impacted by this decision that the facts prove that, all the facts, not just the ones that support the applicant's view of what's best for the nation. So that's a lot said, but that's the gravity of this. And again, I would encourage people.

對我們以及所有其他受此決定影響的利害關係人來說，至關重要的是，事實必須證明這一點，所有事實，而不僅僅是那些支持申請人認為對國家最有利的觀點的事實。說了這麼多，這就是這件事的嚴重性。我再次鼓勵大家。

I know it's very seducing to get wrapped up and drinking this merger cool aid and they wanted to see all these wonderful gains and all these dollars printed that perhaps some are suggesting would be printed in all this amazing shareholder value created, but at what cost? It can't be at the cost of our US rail network. So again, you got to go back and educate yourselves. Listen, I've had lawyers tell me. I've had lawyers disagree with me. I've had other CEOs.

我知道，被這種併購迷惑、喝下「迷魂湯」非常誘人，他們想要看到所有這些美好的收益和印出來的美元，也許有人認為這些都會透過創造驚人的股東價值而實現，但這要付出什麼代價呢？不能以犧牲美國鐵路網為代價。所以，你們還是得回去好好學習。聽著，律師們都這麼跟我說過。我遇過律師不同意我的觀點。我之前也有過其他CEO。

I got a little bit of experience in this, one that I think the world of. Pat saw this differently. when they were going through their process trying to get their trust approved in their agreement with Canadian National. He and I had some very active debates. He was influenced by what his regulatory lawyers told him.

我在這方面累積了一些經驗，我非常喜歡這一點。Pat對此有不同的看法。當時他們正在辦理相關手續，試圖讓加拿大國民銀行批准他們與該銀行簽訂的信託協議。我和他進行過一些非常激烈的辯論。他受到了監管律師的建議的影響。

And he was wrong. I think the (inaudible) had we were stacked 90% against us, and they were wrong. Again, don't get tied up in emotion, don't get tied up in spin, focus on the facts, read the regulations, get the perspective, go back and read the hearings, and you're going to get right back to where I am today. The facts must prove and show that this is ultimately in the public's interest. That benefit box is going to have to be loaded up heavier than that harm box because, again, this decision cannot be undone.

他錯了。我認為（聽不清楚）我們當時有 90% 的劣勢，但他們錯了。再說一遍，不要被情緒左右，不要被花言巧語迷惑，要關注事實，閱讀法規，了解情況，回顧聽證會記錄，你就會回到我今天所處的位置。事實必須證明並表明，這最終符合公眾利益。必須確保收益大於風險，因為這項決定無法撤銷。

And if it's approved with concessions, it will likely trigger additional consolidation in this industry to create railroads to be in a position to best defend itself and compete against a (inaudible) that would be created in the UP-NS combination. And I'll say this one last thing. It's not competition that CPKC is concerned about. I'm an advocate for competition. I'm an advocate for single-line service.

如果這項提案獲得批准並做出讓步，很可能會引發該行業的進一步整合，從而創建能夠更好地保護自己並與 UP-NS 合併後產生的（聽不清楚）競爭的鐵路公司。最後我再說一句。CPKC 所擔心的並非競爭。我支持競爭。我提倡單線服務。

But again, what I'm not an advocate for is anticompetitive behavior. What I'm not an advocate for is a railroad that has so much size and scale as they have historically, and I would suggest history says a lot about what the future might look like, how they've imposed their will on other railroads, I think that's a dangerous and slippery slope. I think it's critically important that whatever concessions that the STB agrees to and that UP-NS would agree to if they accept the decision, if it's favorable, that they have teeth to them as well. It has to be enforceable to be able to protect the public interest and enhance competition. It can't be something that can just be conveniently ignored because they see it a different way.

但我再次重申，我並不提倡反競爭行為。我不贊成鐵路公司像歷史上那樣擁有如此龐大的規模，我認為歷史可以很好地預示未來會是什麼樣子，他們是如何將自己的意志強加給其他鐵路公司的，我認為這是一種危險且危險的趨勢。我認為至關重要的是，STB同意的任何讓步，以及如果UP-NS接受該有利的決定後可能同意的任何讓步，都必須具有實際效力。它必須具有可執行性，才能保護公眾利益並促進競爭。不能因為他們的看法不同就輕易忽略這件事。

It's got to be clear and concise and there has to be a mechanism that we can quickly seek relief in that's not the standard go wait in line for two years until the STB has time to get through the litany of other complaints and concerns that something of this magnitude likely would create before they could opine and give you a decision like we had to navigate after our merger and that South in rights agreement. Do your homework on that one. Read what was said on that one, read the case of that. That was pure anticompetitive behavior. We said it when UP took the position to try to shut off our Southend rights that were granted to us from previous consolidations to protect competition.

它必須清晰簡潔，而且必須有一個機制讓我們能夠迅速尋求救濟，而不是像我們合併後以及南方版權協議簽署後那樣，排隊等待兩年，直到機頂盒管理委員會有時間處理完如此重大事件可能引發的一系列其他投訴和擔憂，然後才能發表意見並做出決定。你得好好研究一下這個問題。看看那件事的詳情，了解那個案例。那純粹是反競爭行為。我們曾說過，當 UP 試圖切斷我們在先前的合併中被授予的 Southend 權利以保護競爭時，我們就表達了這種觀點。

We said it then and the STB agreed with us 2 years later. But in the meantime, I guarantee you the customers' interest were not served that were shut out from competing into those marketplaces during record grain harvest. That was in the harm box. That certainly was not in the benefit box. So thanks for the question, probably a bit more than we anticipated, but I hope I cleared some of that up.

我們當時就這麼說了，兩年後，STB也同意了我們的觀點。但同時，我可以向你保證，在糧食大豐收期間，那些被排除在市場競爭之外的客戶的利益並沒有得到保障。那東西在危險箱裡。那肯定不在福利清單裡。謝謝你的提問，可能比我們預想的要多一些，但我希望我已經解答了你的一些疑問。

So we'll wait and see. Let's just let all these facts be developed and heard, and we'll see where this thing comes out.

所以我們會拭目以待。讓我們先讓所有這些事實得到充分的調查和了解，看看事情最終會如何發展。

Love the passion, Keith, and everyone focused on positive outcomes here.

基思，我喜歡你們的熱情，也喜歡這裡所有人專注於取得正面成果的態度。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨。

Keith, I wanted to get your sense on just high level, how you're thinking about USMCA and kind of risk associated with, I guess, I don't know, renegotiation, whatever you want to call it. You guys have been pretty helpful in kind of defining what you think you've lost from tariffs and Liberation Day.

基思，我想了解你對美墨加協定以及與之相關的風險（我猜，我不知道，重新談判，隨便你怎麼稱呼它）的看法。你們在闡明你們認為關稅和解放日給你們帶來了哪些損失方面，給予了我們很大的幫助。

So I don't know -- I mean, it's obviously tough to have a lot of conviction on where tariff-related things come out. But high level, do you think there is significant risk? Where do you think the timing is? Is this something where you've already incurred a lot of the kind of the headwind already from Liberation Day? So yes.

所以我不知道——我的意思是，顯然很難對關稅相關的事情最終走向有十足的把握。但從宏觀層面來看，您認為有重大風險嗎？你覺得時機如何？你是否已經因為解放日而遭受了許多不利影響？是的。

Yes. Let me start with kind of the last question. We've already absorbed a pretty significant hit from all the uncertainty. I think about $200 million of revenue impact, maybe higher. So we felt it on the balance sheet already.

是的。讓我先回答最後一個問題。我們已經因為各種不確定因素遭受了相當大的打擊。我認為營收影響約為 2 億美元，甚至可能更高。所以我們已經在資產負債表上感受到了這一點。

I don't have the crystal ball to tell you exactly where the need is going to land. I believe, and I've said from the beginning, President Trump is going to adjust the balance of trade between our three nations. He is going to make decisions in that renegotiation, which to his satisfaction and to his view, benefits the United States of America. That said, I think that can be true and a positive renewal on USMCA can be true at the same time because trade between these three nations, even if it gets rebalanced a bit is critically important to all three nations success. We depend upon each other.

我沒有水晶球，無法準確預測需求會落在哪裡。我相信，而且我從一開始就說過，川普總統將會調整我們三國之間的貿易平衡。他將在重新談判中做出決定，在他看來，這些決定將有利於美利堅合眾國。也就是說，我認為這既有可能是事實，也可能是美墨加協定（USMCA）的積極更新，因為這三個國家之間的貿易，即使稍微重新平衡一下，對這三個國家的成功也至關重要。我們彼此依賴。

That's undeniable. When USMCA was created, trade grew after the fact. After the pandemic, even more critical important about cross-border trade between these three nations. So sitting in the seat we're in, we've gone through some choppy waters. They may get more choppier.

這是無可否認的。美墨加協定簽署後，貿易額反而增加了。疫情之後，這三個國家之間的跨境貿易變得更加至關重要。所以，坐在我們現在的位置上，我們已經經歷了一段波濤洶湧的時期。它們可能會變得更加顛簸。

But at the end of the day, we'll get through the storm. These three nations will trade together, and we uniquely because of our network enables it, we connect with hard infrastructure, the rail network that allows that trade to flow Canada to the US, US to Canada, Mexico to the US, US to Mexico and now because of these trade tribulations, even more so than before, Canada to Mexico and Mexico to Canada. We are the only network that can do that.

但最終，我們一定會渡過難關。這三個國家將進行貿易往來，而我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們獨特的網絡，我們與堅實的基礎設施——鐵路網絡——相連，使得貿易能夠從加拿大流向美國，從美國流向加拿大，從墨西哥流向美國，從美國流向墨西哥，而現在由於這些貿易困境，貿易往來甚至比以前更加頻繁地從加拿大流向墨西哥，從墨西哥流向加拿大。我們是唯一能做到這一點的網路。

We truly are a success enabler for North America. We are North America's railroad, heavily committed to the United States, heavily committed to Canada, heavily committed to Mexico. We're going to enable success across these three great nations in a trilateral way that allows everyone to succeed, including CPKC.

我們是北美地區真正成功的推動者。我們是北美鐵路公司，對美國、加拿大和墨西哥都投入巨大。我們將以三方合作的方式，促進這三個偉大國家取得成功，讓包括 CPKC 在內的所有人都能獲得成功。

Do you have any sense on what the most likely timing might be? Or is it just tough to say as well?

你覺得最可能的時間點是什麼時候？或者，這個問題也很難說？

Yes. I'm reading the same things you're hearing. My guess is it's going to really get active this summer. So that's my view. I think in the summer, it's going to get renewed maybe hopefully, I would think before the midterm. Again, that's just me speculating based on the way I'm reading the tea leaves. I don't control the agenda, but that to me would be a possible and a probable outcome.

是的。我看到的消息和你聽到的消息一樣。我估計今年夏天這裡會變得非常活躍。這就是我的看法。我認為今年夏天應該會續簽，希望在期中考前能續簽。這只是我根據目前情況做出的推測。我無法掌控議程，但對我來說，這是一個可能且大機率的結果。

Konark Gupta, Scotia Capital.

科納克·古普塔，豐業資本。

Just on the free cash, just wondering a couple of things real quick here. The free cash conversion you guys talked about at the Investor Day, 90% in that context, where do you see things shake out this year? And then for the CapEx, even if we adjust the pull forward of maintenance projects, the CapEx is seemingly down in '26. Where are you cutting CapEx on? And is there some flex?

關於免費現金，我這裡有幾個問題想快速問一下。你們在投資人日提到的自由現金流轉換率，當時是90%，你們認為今年情況會如何發展？至於資本支出，即使我們調整提前進行的維護項目，2026 年的資本支出似乎也會下降。你們在哪些方面削減資本支出？是否有任何彈性？

So free cash conversion in the 75% range. I think long term, we talked about 90% part of our guide in 2028 and beyond. And I think the current level of the [$2.6 billion, $2.7 billion] CapEx range is something that we can continue to do over the next foreseeable future. So in fact, with a weaker Canadian dollar, that could go -- with the stronger Canadian dollar, that can go even lower. So the CapEx is a bit of a shift in terms of timing of investment.

因此，自由現金流轉換率在 75% 左右。我認為從長遠來看，我們討論過 2028 年及以後 90% 的內容。我認為，在可預見的未來，我們可以繼續維持目前的資本支出水準（26億美元，27億美元）。所以實際上，加幣走弱的話，這個數字可能會下降——加幣走強的話，這個數字甚至可能會下降得更低。因此，資本支出在投資時間方面略有變動。

So we pulled forward some of the infrastructure investment. We did a lot of the synergy or the integration-related capital investment the last three years, as you can imagine, with the Laredo Bridge, with some of the siding extensions and siding investments that we did to support the integration as well as some of the growth investments, Americold, for example, and Transload investments. So there's just basically a bit of a shift in the spend of CapEx. So we don't have the day in our systems integration anymore. So there'll be some reduced capital there.

因此，我們提前進行了一些基礎設施投資。正如您所想，過去三年我們進行了很多與協同效應或整合相關的資本投資，例如拉雷多大橋項目，以及我們為支持整合而進行的一些側線延伸和側線投資，還有一些增長投資，例如 Americold 和 Transload 投資。所以基本上只是資本支出方面發生了一些變化。所以，我們的系統整合流程中不再有「一天」這個環節了。所以那裡的資本會減少一些。

We don't have as many railcar investments that we have, but we have announced that locomotive investment with Wabtec in progress. So it's a shift in capital overall and that reduction of about 15%, somewhat due to timing, but mainly out of the, I'd say, siding extension, infrastructure investments and to an extent, IS investments overall.

我們在鐵路車輛方面的投資不如以前那麼多，但我們已經宣布與 Wabtec 合作的機車投資項目正在進行中。所以，整體資本發生了轉移，減少了約 15%，部分原因是時機問題，但主要原因在於，我認為是側線擴建、基礎設施投資以及一定程度上的整體資訊系統投資。

Benoit Poirier, Desjardin Capital Markets.

Benoit Poirier，Desjardin Capital Markets。

My question back in November, the Canadian government announced new measure to help the Canadian steel and lumber companies. One of this measure was the government would work with the rail to subsidize freight rates by 50% beginning in spring of 2026. I was wondering if you could give an update on this and whether it could be kind of a volume tailwind in the back half this year.

我在去年11月提出這個問題時，加拿大政府宣布了一項新措施來幫助加拿大鋼鐵和木材公司。其中一項措施是，政府將與鐵路公司合作，從 2026 年春季開始補貼 50% 的貨運費率。我想問您能否提供這方面的最新進展，以及這是否會在今年下半年成為銷售成長的有利因素。

Yes. Thanks, Benoit. Certainly, we've got our GA folks working through still the mechanics of how all this will be accounted for sort of between all the parties, the customer, the government and ourselves. Our analysis says, yes, maybe there is some opportunity, particularly in maybe some long-haul transload type movements across the country. But I'm not looking at sort of needle-moving type numbers there, Benoit.

是的。謝謝你，貝努瓦。當然，我們的通用航空部門人員仍在研究如何協調各方（客戶、政府和我們自己）之間的所有事宜。我們的分析表明，是的，也許存在一些機會，尤其是在全國範圍內的一些長途轉運類型運輸方面。但我關注的不是那種能改變格局的數字，貝努瓦。

So we'll see. As I said, there's still a fair amount that has to be sorted out. And then we'll see how it sort of ripples through the marketplace. And we're keeping our hands on the pulse of that if there's an opportunity, we'll be right there to try to capture it, but I'm not looking at big numbers.

我們拭目以待。正如我所說，還有相當多的問題需要解決。然後我們將看看它會在市場上產生怎樣的連鎖反應。我們會密切關注事態發展，如果出現機會，我們會第一時間抓住它，但我並不追求大數字。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

So one of the other rails was talking about pickup in inflation. How are you feeling about price and just overall price cost this year? And then maybe just along those lines, just given some of the Q1 commentary on, any thoughts about how to think about operating ratio in Q1?

另一條鐵路上有人在討論通貨膨脹加劇的問題。您對今年的價格以及整體價格成本有何看法？然後，或許可以沿著這個思路，考慮到第一季的一些評論，對於如何看待第一季的營運比率，大家有什麼想法嗎？

We'll stop through a (inaudible) . I think year-over-year, we'll see a potential for improvement in the operating ratio. I'll keep it at that. From an inflation point of view, we're not seeing that same sort of issue. And again, Canadian dollar does help us in terms of some of our costs and capital investments in US dollar conversion.

我們會停下來…（聽不清楚）我認為，與前一年相比，我們的營運比率有望得到改善。我就說到這兒吧。從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們並沒有看到同樣的問題。此外，加幣在幫助我們降低一些成本和資本投資方面的美元兌換成本方面也發揮了作用。

But overall, our true inflation, like which is locked in with labor, we signed some very unique deals and favorable deals for labor and for management. And those are in that 2.5% to 3% range. So as far as our inflation, you should expect that level of inflation overall, and we're pricing above that. So that spread should be positive and will be part of our benefit to our margins overall.

但總的來說，我們真正的通貨膨脹，就像與勞動市場掛鉤的通貨膨脹一樣，我們簽署了一些非常獨特的協議，這些協議對勞資雙方都很有利。這些數值都在2.5%到3%的範圍內。所以就通膨而言，你應該預期整體通膨水準會達到這個水平，而我們的定價高於這個水準。因此，該價差應為正值，並將成為我們整體利潤率的一部分優勢。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter，美國銀行。

Nadeem, just to clarify that 1Q -- I'm sorry, the year-over-year improvement, was that a 1Q specific comment? Or is that a year-over-year comment on the OR? And then just your thoughts on synergy targets, how -- where you think you are and what you still think can add this year and next?

Nadeem，我澄清一下，第一季——抱歉，是年比改善，這是特指第一季的評論嗎？還是這是對手術室同比情況的評論？然後，您對協同效應目標有什麼想法？您認為目前處於什麼階段？您認為今年和明年還能增加哪些面向？

Yes. So we'll see year-over-year improvement in Q1 in the operating ratio, and I expect to see year-over-year improvement annually in the operating ratio as well. We talked about Q1 being a little bit more challenging just given volume won't be as strong in Q1, but I still see outside of a major winter event or disruption that we'll see some improvement in the operating ratio given the low-cost structure we entered January with. And remind your second part of your question.

是的。因此，我們將在第一季看到營業比率比去年同期有所改善，我預計營業比率每年也會比去年同期有所改善。我們之前討論過，鑑於第一季銷售不會像第一季那麼強勁，第一季可能會更具挑戰性。但我仍然認為，除非遇到重大的冬季事件或中斷，否則鑑於我們一月份開始的低成本結構，營運比率將會有所改善。請回顧一下你問題的第二部分。

Synergy question, yes. So Ken, we exited 2025 at about a $1.2 billion run rate, $1.2 billion. We see an opportunity for another $200 million plus about $1.4 billion as we close out 2026. So well on our way of meeting the commitments we made relative to this integration opportunity.

協同效應的問題，是的。所以肯，到 2025 年結束時，我們的年化收入約為 12 億美元，12 億美元。我們看到，到 2026 年底，還有 2 億美元和約 14 億美元的機會。因此，我們在履行與此次整合機會相關的承諾方面進展順利。

Ariel Rosa, Citigroup.

Ariel Rosa，花旗集團。

So I wanted to ask maybe a little bit longer term. It's been interesting to see there's been quite a bit of convergence here between kind of valuations across the Class I rails. Keith, as we think about the growth prospects for CP over the long term, maybe speak about your level of confidence that CP can continue to outgrow the industry and kind of what are the drivers behind that as we think about three, five years out and particularly how potentially a UP-NS situation could alter that?

所以我想問更長遠的問題。有趣的是，我們發現一級鐵路公司之間的估值已經出現了相當大的趨同現象。Keith，當我們思考加拿大太平洋鐵路公司（CP）的長期成長前景時，您能否談談您對CP能否繼續超越行業平均水平的信心程度，以及推動CP在未來三到五年內保持增長的因素是什麼，特別是聯合太平洋鐵路公司（UP）和新斯科舍鐵路公司（NS）的合併可能會如何改變這種局面？

Let me start with the last part first. UP-NS, if that comes together with the puts and takes and the concessions we believe that will be required to satisfy enhanced competition, I see that as a net positive as long as we have a fair playing field and we don't have anticompetitive behavior. So that's a qualifier there. And I'm going to take -- I'm going to expect that Jim will commit that that's not going to be true. That said, when it comes to the synergies and our growth algorithm we look forward, think about this.

讓我先從最後一部分開始。UP-NS，如果這與我們認為為滿足加強競爭而必須做出的讓步和妥協結合起來，我認為只要我們有一個公平的競爭環境，並且沒有反競爭行為，這最終將是一件好事。所以，這是個限定條件。而且我打算——我期望吉姆會保證那不會是真的。也就是說，說到我們展望的協同效應和成長演算法，請思考一下。

Think about what we're doing today with no macro help. So that's a single-digit RTM growth with the macro working against us. So if you go forward, we're going to continue to have synergies. We're going to continue to create new and unique opportunities. This SMX product that was never contemplated in those initial targets that we put out.

想想我們今天在沒有任何宏觀因素幫助的情況下都在做什麼。因此，在宏觀經濟情勢不利的情況下，RTM 成長率僅為個位數。所以，如果我們繼續合作，我們將繼續發揮協同效應。我們將繼續創造新的、獨特的機會。這款 SMX 產品從未在我們最初制定的目標中被考慮過。

You get back to a place where you got a little bit of tailwind with a normalized economy, a little bit of GDP growth and normal shipments. Synergies can come off a little, you maintain price and you still kind of echo the same repeated behavior over the next several years. So again, I think that's a sweet spot. What we do is hard work, it's not easy. It's not a layup, but we've got the network to be able to create these customer solutions that have never been able to be created before, benefit from trade between the three nations, benefit from these unique networks, north-south, the Southeast to Dallas, the Southeast of Mexico that, again, a UP-NS can't replicate.

你回到了一個經濟正常化、GDP略有成長、出貨量正常的地方，那裡有一些順風。綜效可能會減弱，價格保持不變，但在接下來的幾年裡，你仍然會重複同樣的行為。所以我覺得這算是一個最佳平衡點。我們做的事情很辛苦，並不容易。這並非易事，但我們擁有這樣的網絡，可以創造以前從未有過的客戶解決方案，從三國之間的貿易中受益，從這些獨特的網絡（南北向、從東南部到達拉斯、墨西哥東南部）中受益，而這些網絡是 UP-NS 無法複製的。

And I think that gives us a nice recipe for having confidence in meeting that guidance that we've laid out on the growth algorithm.

我認為這為我們提供了一個很好的方法，讓我們有信心實現我們在成長演算法中製定的指導方針。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Just a question on the grain harvest given its size. I think you've already described it as a tailwind for the year. I was a bit surprised you didn't move more in the fourth quarter on the back of the weak harvest. And just curious whether or not you think the normal pattern will evolve this year in the sense we'll move the bulk of the harvest in the first 1.5 quarters or 2 quarters? Or would you think that pattern will extend into the third quarter as well, just given, again, the size of the carryover this year?

鑑於糧食產量，我想問糧食收成情況。我認為你已經把它描述為今年的順風了。鑑於第四季收成不佳，我有點驚訝你們的股價沒有上漲更多。我只是好奇，您是否認為今年的正常模式會改變，即我們會在前一個半季度或兩個季度完成大部分收成？或者，考慮到今年的結轉規模，您認為這種模式也會延續到第三季嗎？

Yes, Steve. You and I both were surprised. Certainly, the wet weather out there in Vancouver didn't help. And I know we talked about it on the Q3 call, like we were excited about the level of freight that we had sold with the grain companies and gearing up for that. It does feel like maybe there is a little bit of a shift.

是的，史蒂夫。你我都感到驚訝。當然，溫哥華的潮濕天氣也雪上加霜。我知道我們在第三季電話會議上談到了這一點，我們對與糧食公司合作銷售的貨運量感到興奮，並為此做好了準備。感覺好像確實發生了一些變化。

We'll see if this is unique or not as we get towards harvest next year. I'm not really sure yet. I do believe it sets us up for a very ratable, which we like as a railroad shipment profile of grain. And frankly, with the soybeans not moving very much in the US, we're kind of excited about what that might bring as we move through the mid part of the year. So I met with one of our very largest grain customers last week.

明年接近收穫時，我們就能知道這是否是特例了。我還不太確定。我相信這將為我們創造一個非常有利的評級條件，而我們正希望鐵路運輸穀物能達到這樣的水平。坦白說，由於美國大豆市場行情不佳，我們對年中之後市場可能出現的變化感到有些興奮。上週我與我們最大的糧食客戶之一見了面。

And they told me they fully expect to be kind of sold out to busy levels right through August in new crop. We got pretty good snow levels up across Canada right now. We exited with pretty decent moisture. And I know we're really in early innings right now, but I can tell you there's already a little bit of bullishness around could there be a repeat. And certainly, the Canadian farmer has built a lot of storage.

他們告訴我，他們預計新季產品在八月之前都會一直供不應求。目前加拿大各地積雪情況相當不錯。我們離開時身上還帶著相當不錯的水分。我知道現在還處於比賽初期，但我可以告訴你，目前已經有一些樂觀情緒，認為比賽可能會重演。當然，這位加拿大農民建造了許多儲藏設施。

So they've been able to put this crop away, but I think there's a pretty big confidence that this is going to have to move and move throughout the year. And then we'll see what happens next fall.

所以他們已經能夠把這批作物儲存起來，但我認為他們非常有信心，這批作物將在今年持續銷售。然後我們再看看明年秋天會發生什麼事。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

So John, maybe can you talk a little bit about how you're thinking about the tariff environment in terms of building out the mid-single-digit RTM guide? Like are you expecting things to kind of stay volatile, stay the same, get a little better, get a little worse? And then how are you guys thinking about the next iteration of the USMCA and how that might sort of impact some of the opportunities for you guys in the next three years?

約翰，你能談談你如何看待關稅環境，以及你如何制定個位數中段RTM指導方針嗎？你覺得情況會一直波動不定、保持不變、稍微好轉一點，還是稍微惡化一點？那麼，你們如何看待下一版美墨加協定，以及它在未來三年內可能會對你們的一些機會產生怎樣的影響？

Well, David, we've assumed that this isn't really going to change. So we've planned to sort of build in this headwind into 2026. Now look, we were able to backfill it. I'll give you an example. We -- our land bridge volume that we've talked about really both directions grew by about $140 million year-over-year in those types of opportunities.

大衛，我們一直認為這種情況不會改變。所以我們計劃將這種不利因素融入 2026 年的計畫中。你看，我們已經把它填平了。我給你舉個例子。我們——我們之前提到的陸路橋樑交易量，實際上是雙向的，在這些類型的機會中，比去年同期增長了約 1.4 億美元。

We see opportunity there to add on to that pretty significantly. So look, it's no doubt, it's frustrating. It was a pretty significant headwind. If we get a break in it positively, certainly, we're going to embrace bringing a lot of that traffic back on, but it certainly hasn't been planned. As I -- what the future holds, I can tell you one thing.

我們看到了大幅增加投資的機會。所以你看，毫無疑問，這令人沮喪。當時風力相當大，是逆風。如果情況有好轉，我們當然會樂見很多客流量回歸，但這絕對不是我們計劃好的。至於我──對於未來會怎樣，我只能告訴你一件事。

We're going to really amp up our sales activity on our Mexico franchise. I think there is a heck of a lot more opportunity down there to sort of feed this broader network. And again, whether it would be land bridge opportunities up into Canada or continuing to feed the American economy.

我們將大幅提昇在墨西哥特許經營店的銷售活動。我認為那裡還有很多機會可以發展壯大這個更廣泛的網絡。再說一遍，無論是透過陸路橋樑進入加拿大，還是繼續為美國經濟提供動力。

And really, we've really never done it to the extent that you've become accustomed to seeing our sales team across Canada and the US do it. So more to come on that, but I'm looking for a lot bigger things in terms of growth out of our Mexico franchise in the coming years.

事實上，我們以前從未像你們現在這樣，在加拿大和美國各地的銷售團隊中如此大規模地開展這項業務。關於這一點，以後還會有更多消息，但我期待未來幾年我們在墨西哥的特許經營業務能夠取得更大的發展。

And anything that Carney and the team are doing to kind of promote trade with other partners that might have an impact on the outlook? I know there's been talk about the Chinese EVs, that kind of stuff.

卡尼和他的團隊在促進與其他夥伴的貿易方面所採取的任何措施，可能會對經濟前景產生影響嗎？我知道大家都在討論中國電動車之類的事情。

Well, yeah, I think certainly there's a fair amount of work. And actually, we've got some of our ag folks down there in the coming weeks to promote better ag shipments between the two, eliminate some of the red tape and bureaucracy in terms of the customs movements of those products. I think we're making some headway on those fronts.

嗯，是的，我認為確實有很多工作要做。事實上，我們將在未來幾週派一些農業方面的人員到那裡，以促進兩國之間更好的農產品運輸，消除這些產品在海關運輸方面的一些繁文縟節和官僚主義。我認為我們在這些方面取得了一些進展。

I can tell you, also, if we think about products intermodally moving all the way between Canada and Mexico. David, also, there's an effort to try to streamline some of those customs processes related to those products early. So I do believe there's some momentum there. But we're kind of in the early innings on some of that stuff.

我也可以告訴你，如果我們考慮產品在加拿大和墨西哥之間進行多式聯運的情況。David，另外，我們也在努力儘早簡化與這些產品相關的某些海關流程。所以我相信這方面確實存在一些發展勢頭。但我們對這些事情還處於起步階段。

Thank you. We have reached our allotted time for Q&A. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Keith Creel.

謝謝。問答環節時間已到。現在我想把電話轉回給基斯·克里爾先生。

Okay. Thank you, everyone, again for spending your time with us some really good questions. I think some active discussions, certainly a very topical time of change for our industry. We're going to stay close to that as we have stayed close to that, again, to make sure that our facts are heard and understood as well as the industries and as well as our customers, our joint customers. And we'll see how it all shakes out.

好的。再次感謝大家抽空向我們提出非常好的問題。我認為目前有一些積極的討論，這無疑是我們行業變革時期的熱門話題。我們將繼續密切關注此事，就像我們一直以來密切關注此事一樣，以確保我們的事實能夠被聽到和理解，同時也要讓相關行業、我們的客戶以及我們的共同客戶了解情況。我們拭目以待，看看最終結果如何。

More to come on that. These next several months will be very telling once that application is resubmitted, and we all have a chance to digest it and comment on that. In the meantime, we're going to focus on our core competencies, which is running a safe and efficient railroad for the benefit of our customers and for the benefit of commerce, which is going to produce a very solid and we think unique value-creating financial outcome for those that choose to invest in our company. We take that responsibility seriously. We appreciate your trust.

關於這一點，後續會有更多報導。接下來的幾個月將非常重要，因為一旦申請重新提交，我們都有機會仔細考慮並表達意見。同時，我們將專注於我們的核心競爭力，即安全高效地運營鐵路，造福我們的客戶和商業，這將為選擇投資我們公司的人帶來非常穩健且我們認為獨特的創造價值的財務成果。我們認真對待這份責任。感謝您的信任。

We look forward to sharing results on the next call. Stay safe, stay warm, and we'll see you out on the rail.

我們期待在下次電話會議上分享結果。注意安全，注意保暖，我們鐵路邊見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。