Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (CP) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Margo and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to CPKC's second-quarter 2025 conference call. The slides accompanying today's call are available at investor.cpkcr.com. (Operator Instructions)

午安.我叫瑪戈，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 CPKC 2025 年第二季電話會議。今日電話會議的幻燈片可在 investor.cpkcr.com 上取得。（操作員指示）

I would like to introduce Chris De Bruyn, Vice President, Capital Markets, to begin the conference call.

我想介紹資本市場副總裁 Chris De Bruyn 來開始電話會議。

Thank you, Margo. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I want to remind you this presentation contains forward-looking information. Actual results may differ materially. The risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could influence actual results are described on slide 2 in the press release and in the MD&A filed with Canadian and US regulators. This presentation also contains non-GAAP measures outlined on slide 3.

謝謝你，瑪戈。大家下午好，感謝大家今天的參與。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，此簡報包含前瞻性資訊。實際結果可能存在重大差異。新聞稿第 2 張投影片以及向加拿大和美國監管機構提交的 MD&A 中描述了可能影響實際結果的風險、不確定性和其他因素。本簡報也包含投影片 3 中概述的非 GAAP 指標。

With me here today is Keith Creel, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Nadeem Velani, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; John Brooks, our Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer; and Mark Redd, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. The formal remarks will be followed by Q&A. In the interest of time, we would appreciate if you limit your questions to one.

今天和我一起在場的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Keith Creel、我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Nadeem Velani、我們的執行副總裁兼首席行銷長 John Brooks 以及我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Mark Redd。正式發言之後將進行問答環節。為了節省時間，如果您只將問題限制為一個，我們將不勝感激。

It is now my pleasure to introduce our President and CEO, Mr. Keith Creel.

現在我很高興介紹我們的總裁兼執行長 Keith Creel 先生。

Okay. Thanks, Chris. I want to thank everyone for joining us here today. As I always do, let me start by thinking the 20,000 strong family of railroaders we have across our three nation network that delivered the results that we get to honor to share with you today. As a leader, it's always modern with these folks that I work on and serve with on behalf of their body work to represent that.

好的。謝謝，克里斯。我要感謝今天與我們一起參加會議的各位。像往常一樣，首先我想說的是，我們三個國家鐵路網絡的兩萬多名鐵路工人取得了我們今天榮幸地與你們分享的成果。作為一名領導者，我總是與這些人一起工作並為他們服務，以代表他們的身體工作來體現這一點。

So speaking to the results for the quarter, the team delivered volume growth of 7%. Revenues were up 3%, $3.7 billion, 10-basis-point improvement in our operating ratio to a 60.7% and earnings of $1.12, which is an increase of 7% versus last year. From an outlook on the balance of the year perspective, I'm very pleased with where we stand midway through the year. We certainly see a clear line of path to our year-end guidance with opportunities that before is the second half of 2025. So despite all the headlines, all these evolving trade policies, the challenges that we've all faced as an industry, we continue to drive differentiated sustainable and profitable growth at CPKC.

因此，就本季的業績而言，該團隊實現了 7% 的銷售成長。營收成長 3%，達到 37 億美元，營業比率提高 10 個基點至 60.7%，收益為 1.12 美元，比去年增長 7%。從全年平衡的角度來看，我對我們今年年中的表現感到非常滿意。我們確實看到了實現年終指引的清晰路線，其中的機會是在 2025 年下半年之前。因此，儘管有各種頭條新聞、不斷變化的貿易政策以及我們作為一個行業所面臨的挑戰，我們仍繼續推動 CPKC 的差異化、可持續和盈利增長。

And as you all know, this is not just a 2025 story. This franchise continues to be positioned to deliver a unique outcome for years to come. That said, let me share a couple of exciting developments in the quarter that underpins some of that forward-looking thinking, continued ramp-up of our Gemini partnership, something we're extremely excited about that's creating meaningful international growth for us. 180, 181 premium domestic intermodal service, which again grew 40% versus last year.

眾所周知，這不僅僅是一個 2025 年的故事。該特許經營權在未來幾年將繼續帶來獨特的成果。話雖如此，讓我分享一下本季度的一些令人興奮的發展，這些發展鞏固了一些前瞻性思維，繼續加強了我們的雙子座合作夥伴關係，我們對此感到非常興奮，因為它為我們創造了有意義的國際增長。 180、181優質國內多式聯運服務，與去年相比再次成長了40％。

Continued increase in our traffic flows between Canada and Mexico via CPKC land bridge that we have spoken to uniquely enabled by this North American network. And then lately, the momentum behind our newly named Southeast Mexico Express service, which is our partnership with the CSX over the Meridian Speedway through our new gateway to the Southeast, again, creates an unrivaled network, bringing new solutions to the market.

我們所說的這個北美網路的獨特優勢使得加拿大和墨西哥之間通過 CPKC 陸橋的交通流量持續增加。最近，我們新命名的東南墨西哥快捷服務，即我們與 CSX 合作通過子午線高速公路，透過我們通往東南的新門戶，再次創造了無與倫比的網絡，為市場帶來了新的解決方案。

So now, maybe a couple of comments on maybe the proverbial elephant in the room or maybe better said the one that wants to come into the room. Obviously, there have been some recent developments in our industry with yesterday's announcement of this proposed combination between UP and NS. Let me start by saying this team remains focused as it always has been and our fiduciary responsibility to maximize shareholders' value. Our value proposition is unchanged from yesterday's news. This is a unique and powerful network.

所以現在，也許我可以針對眾所周知的房間裡的大象，或者更確切地說是想要進入房間的大象，提幾點評論。顯然，隨著昨天 UP 和 NS 之間擬議的合併，我們的行業最近取得了一些進展。首先我要說的是，這個團隊一如往常地專注於我們的信託責任，也就是最大化股東價值。我們的價值主張與昨天的新聞相比沒有改變。這是一個獨特而強大的網路。

The only network that connects operation in US, Canada, and Mexico, a network that will continue to drive -- growth and a management team that certainly has the track record of execution to back up our actions with our works. The value and the position and strength of this network that we've created puts us in a very unique position that's allowed us to produce what we've produced the last two years. That does not change. And similarly, our multiyear outlook and the value proposition is unchanged. The team and the network will continue to deliver differentiated results.

這是唯一一個連接美國、加拿大和墨西哥的網絡，這個網絡將繼續推動成長，並且管理團隊肯定有執行記錄，可以用我們的工作來支持我們的行動。我們創建的這個網絡的價值、地位和實力使我們處於非常獨特的地位，使我們能夠生產過去兩年來生產的產品。這一點沒有改變。同樣，我們的多年展望和價值主張也沒有改變。該團隊和網絡將繼續提供差異化的成果。

On the regulatory front, we'll be actively engaged, as you can imagine, in the regulatory process to ensure, number one, that our customers and our industry interests are protected in this proposed combination. Number two, that the high standards that have been set around mergers as defined in these new one tested 2001 merger rules, which require the applicants to demonstrate enhanced competition and consider downstream effects, that standard is met. Rest assured, we'll be allow voice in the room to ensure that the facts are known, the facts are understood, fully understood and weighed on by the STB when they come to their conclusions and their decisions.

在監管方面，正如您所想像的，我們將積極參與監管過程，以確保我們的客戶和行業利益在這一擬議的組合中受到保護。第二，2001 年合併規則對合併規定了高標準，要求申請人證明競爭增強，並考慮下游影響，這一標準已經滿足。請放心，我們將允許大家在房間裡發表意見，以確保事實為人所知，STB 在得出結論和做出決定時能夠充分理解和權衡事實。

The other part, in the meantime, when it comes to the regulator, I can see this from experience, we're dealing with the regulator that they take their job very seriously. They will be pragmatic. They will be diligent. They will be fact-based. They will base their decisions, I believe, on the facts that are developed, the truths that are represented and presented -- and debated and discussed in a very fulsome way to lead to the right outcomes.

另一方面，同時，當談到監管機構時，我可以從經驗中看到，我們正在與監管機構打交道，他們非常認真地對待他們的工作。他們將會很務實。他們會勤奮的。它們將以事實為基礎。我相信，他們的決定將以所掌握的事實、所代表和呈現的真相為基礎，並透過充分的辯論和討論來得出正確的結果。

That said, in the meantime, outside of that process, you can imagine, this network is uniquely positioned, as I've said in the past, to compete or to partner with any Class I. We literally, we're 2.5 years old. We've been working hard to develop these alliances and to create these new revenue streams and these new customer solutions, not only uniquely in our network, but also uniquely in the partnerships as evidenced in what we've done with the CSX less than a year after we came into existence.

話雖如此，同時，在這個過程之外，你可以想像，正如我過去所說的那樣，這個網絡具有獨特的優勢，可以與任何 Class I 競爭或合作。實際上，我們已經有 2.5 年的歷史了。我們一直在努力發展這些聯盟，創造這些新的收入來源和新的客戶解決方案，這不僅在我們的網絡中是獨一無二的，而且在合作夥伴關係中也是獨一無二的，正如我們成立不到一年後與 CSX 所做的那樣。

I can tell you, in this world, that list of opportunities is not exhausted. The list of potential partners still exists. And I can tell you those other partners not involved in this combination are more motivated than ever to have those discussions. And rest assured, well into having those discussions. This isn't something we just started. This is something that will only enhance and gain momentum.

我可以告訴你，在這個世界上，機會是無窮無盡的。潛在合作夥伴名單仍然存在。我可以告訴你們，那些沒有參與此次合併的其他合作夥伴比以往任何時候都更積極地進行這些討論。請放心，我們會好好地進行這些討論。這並不是我們剛開始的事情。這只會增強並獲得動力。

So in closing, let me say this, whether short term and continued uncertainties from the macro trade policies, we were going to continue to deliver a differentiated outcome, support the team, the opportunity is unique. We'll continue to deliver value for our stakeholders.

最後，我想說的是，無論宏觀貿易政策在短期內是否存在持續的不確定性，我們都將繼續提供差異化的結果，支持團隊，這個機會是獨一無二的。我們將繼續為我們的利害關係人創造價值。

So with that, let me hand it over to Mark. He's going to speak to the operations. John will bring a little color on the markets. Nadeem will elaborate on the numbers, and we look forward to the Q&A.

因此，讓我將其交給馬克。他將談論營運事宜。約翰將為市場帶來一些色彩。Nadeem 將詳細說明這些數字，我們期待問答。

Thank you, Keith, and good afternoon. I'd like to start by thanking our employees for their hard work and dedication in the quarter, and for their efforts towards the integration of our operations in the US and Canada. This is a major merger milestone in the complex -- well, not with challenges, we have a lot -- we have made a lot of progress over the last two months.

謝謝你，基思，下午好。首先，我要感謝我們的員工在本季的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，以及他們為整合我們在美國和加拿大的業務所做的努力。這是這個綜合體合併過程中的一個重要里程碑——當然，我們面臨的不是挑戰，而是很多——我們在過去兩個月裡取得了巨大進展。

I'm very pleased with how the team has pulled together to restore service to customers in the southern region of the US network who were impacted the most by the change. The rest of the network continued to perform well through the quarter and we are carrying operating momentum into the third quarter.

我很高興看到團隊齊心協力為受此次變化影響最大的美國網路南部地區的客戶恢復服務。其餘網路在本季繼續表現良好，我們將把營運動能帶入第三季。

If I look at the results, turning the results I've got -- we saw a 1% improvement in both train weights and train links. System-wide dwell increased by 7% in the quarter, driven by the increase in the dwell on the legacy KCSR Southern US terminals. Terminal dwell in the region peaked in early June, but largely recovered to pre cutover levels. Dwell on the legacy KCSR improved 42% over this two-month time period and car miles per car day improved 38% as well.

如果我看一下結果，看看我得到的結果——我們看到火車重量和火車連接都提高了 1%。本季全系統停留時間增加了 7%，這主要得益於傳統 KCSR 美國南部航站樓停留時間的增加。該地區的終端停留時間在 6 月初達到頂峰，但已基本恢復到切換前的水平。在這兩個月的時間內，傳統 KCSR 的續航里程提高了 42%，每天的行駛里程也提高了 38%。

Although with regret to the disruption to the customers during this time period, I'm extremely encouraged by the progress we have made delivered over the last two months. As those improvements continue to take hold, our service largely back to pre -- levels were expected improvement of efficiency and fluidity to flow through the network and metrics in the second quarter.

儘管對於在此期間給客戶帶來的不便我深感遺憾，但我對過去兩個月所取得的進展感到非常鼓舞。隨著這些改進的持續實施，我們的服務在很大程度上恢復到了先前的水平，預計第二季網路和指標的效率和流動性將得到改善。

I look at safety, taking a look at FRA personal injuries were 0.77, which is an 8% year-over-year improvement FRA train accidents of 0.97, which continues to be a year-to-date record performance. We posted another notable reduction to personal injury as a testament to the team's dedication to our home safe culture. While our industry-leading train accident frequency increased from weather-related incidents in the quarter, namely our engineering and mechanical related train accidents continued to decline year over year. This improvement is being driven in part by our increased use of geometry cars and also the wheel bearing management technology we have.

我看了一下安全情況，法蘭克福機場的人身傷害事故率為 0.77，比去年同期提高了 8%；法蘭克福機場的火車事故率為 0.97，這仍然是今年迄今為止的最高紀錄。我們再次大幅減少了人身傷害，證明了團隊對家庭安全文化的奉獻精神。雖然本季我們業界領先的火車事故頻率因天氣相關事件而增加，但我們的工程和機械相關的火車事故卻比去年同期持續下降。這種改進的部分原因是我們更多地使用幾何汽車以及我們擁有的車輪軸承管理技術。

Now looking at the resources and capital. Now as I look for the second part of the year, we continue to control our resources and invest our unique growth that this merger has enabled. From a resource perspective, we are selectively managing head count to backfill attrition, support the volume growth we're bringing on to this network. Our resources remain well in line with the growth outlook and head count slightly down on 7% of RTM growth is driving strong labor productivity.

現在來看資源和資本。現在，當我展望今年下半年時，我們將繼續控制我們的資源並投資於這次合併帶來的獨特成長。從資源角度來看，我們選擇性地管理員工數量以填補人員流失，支持我們為該網路帶來的數量成長。我們的資源與成長前景保持良好一致，員工數量略低於 RTM 成長的 7%，這推動了強勁的勞動生產力。

I'm encouraged by the progress that we continue to see from FRA on initiatives to enhance safety and network efficiencies. We're also making good progress with combining crude districts still today, most recently between Colton, Texas and Laredo, Texas, so we can improve cycle times and deliver more resilient customer service to the key cross-border corridor.

我很高興看到法蘭克福機場在加強安全和網路效率方面不斷取得進展。目前，我們在合併原油區方面也取得了良好進展，最近一次是合併德克薩斯州科爾頓和德克薩斯州拉雷多之間的原油區，因此我們可以縮短週期時間，並為關鍵的跨境走廊提供更具彈性的客戶服務。

As we look at the capital perspective, in addition to the safety investments across our network and capital improvements in this area, we have received the first 40 of the Tier 4 locomotives, these locomotives are supporting our strong growth and improving the reliability and the fuel efficiency of our fleet.

從資本角度來看，除了整個網路的安全投資和該領域的資本改進之外，我們還收到了首批 40 台 Tier 4 機車，這些機車正在支持我們的強勁增長並提高我們車隊的可靠性和燃油效率。

So in closing, we have operational momentum heading into the second half our network is prepared to safely and efficiently deliver strong growth over our plan. We have resources in place and certainly the management team to deliver and execute on the growth.

總而言之，進入下半年，我們的營運勢頭強勁，我們的網路已準備好安全有效地實現計劃內的強勁增長。我們擁有充足的資源和管理團隊來實現和執行成長目標。

With that, I'll turn it over to John.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給約翰。

All right. Thank you, Mark, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me say I'm extremely pleased that we delivered another quarter of record volumes and revenue, and I certainly want to thank all of our customers for their ongoing support and collaboration over the last few months. The strength and the diversity of this franchise is reflected in our results, and I'm proud of the team for what they do every day to deliver sustainable, profitable growth. Now despite continued uncertainty from the macro and trade policy, Q3 is off to a solid start and we are well positioned for continued differentiated growth.

好的。謝謝你，馬克，大家下午好。我要說的是，我非常高興我們又創下了季度銷售和收入的新高，當然我也要感謝所有客戶在過去幾個月給予我們的持續支持和合作。我們的業績體現了該特許經營的實力和多樣性，我為團隊每天為實現可持續的盈利增長所做的努力感到自豪。儘管宏觀和貿易政策的不確定性持續存在，但第三季已經取得了良好的開端，我們已準備好繼續實現差異化成長。

Now looking at our Q2 results. This quarter, we delivered freight revenue growth of 3% on a 7% increase in RTMs. Our pricing results remain strong as my team is achieving renewal pricing in excess of our long-term outlook of 3% to 4%. Yields in the quarter were impacted by lower fuel surcharge removal of the carbon tax in Canada as well as negative business mix.

現在來看看我們的第二季業績。本季度，我們的貨運收入成長了 3%，RTM 成長了 7%。我們的定價結果仍然強勁，因為我的團隊實現的續約定價超過了我們長期預期的 3% 至 4%。本季的收益受到加拿大取消碳稅、燃油附加費降低以及負面業務組合的影響。

Now taking a closer look at our second quarter revenue performance, I'll speak to FX adjusted results. Starting with bulk. Grain revenues were up 11% on 13% volume growth, a record Q2 performance. Grain volumes were up 16 -- Canadian grain volumes were up 16%, driven by increased green to Vancouver, Thunder Bay and down to the US markets. For July and August, our volume growth has decelerated as the remaining stocks in Canada are starting to get low and the farmers have become more reluctant to sell.

現在仔細看看我們第二季的營收表現，我將談談外匯調整後的結果。從批量開始。糧食收入成長 11%，產量成長 13%，創下第二季紀錄。穀物產量增加 16%——加拿大穀物產量增加 16%，這得益於溫哥華、桑德貝和美國市場的綠色產品增加。7月和8月，我們的銷售成長放緩，因為加拿大剩餘的庫存開始減少，而且農民越來越不願意出售。

Now looking ahead at the upcoming harvest, our outlook is positive and we currently expect crop size to be in the 70 million to 75 million metric tonne range, which is in line with the five-year average. We all had a strong quarter in US screen with volumes up 11% over prior year. We continue to move more grain into Mexico as our network matches our strong areas of production with the demand in the South. While we are watching the impact from potential tariffs on soybean exports this fall, the upcoming crop across all portions of our US network looks very strong, and we're well positioned for a strong grain season.

現在展望即將到來的收成，我們的前景是樂觀的，我們目前預計作物產量將在 7,000 萬至 7,500 萬噸之間，與五年平均值一致。本季度，我們在美國影院表現強勁，票房比去年同期增長了 11%。隨著我們的網路將我們強大的生產區域與南部的需求相匹配，我們將繼續向墨西哥運送更多的糧食。雖然我們正在關註今年秋天大豆出口可能受到的關稅影響，但我們美國網路所有地區即將到來的農作物看起來都非常強勁，我們已為強勁的糧食季節做好了準備。

Potash revenues were down 8% on 7% volume growth with positive demand fundamentals, Canpotex is fully committed at record levels. We expect a strong second half with even more normalized mix. And to finish out bulk, we closed out the first quarter with coal revenue up 8% and 5% volume growth. This strength was driven by higher US. thermal coal and higher Canadian met coal as we move more volume driven by production improvement at the mine sites and continued inventory drawdowns.

鉀肥收入下降 8%，銷量成長 7%，但由於需求基本面良好，Canpotex 的投入達到了創紀錄的水平。我們預計下半年業績將表現強勁，產品組合將更加正常化。在散裝業務方面，我們第一季的煤炭收入成長了 8%，銷量成長了 5%。這種強勁勢頭是由美國動力煤和加拿大冶金煤價格上漲所推動的，因為礦場產量提高和庫存持續下降帶動了煤炭運輸量的增加。

Moving to the Merchandise business. Energy, Chemicals and Plastics revenue grew 2% on a 5% volume decline. Our base ECP franchise continues to deliver revenue and diverse volume growth across multiple commodities from synergies, self-help, and market share gains. That growth this quarter was offset by lower crude volumes, primarily due to an outage at our Hardisty terminal. We delivered strong growth from LPGs and Plastics in the quarter as our now continues to connect Canadian production with destinations in Mexico using our network as a land bridge and facilitating new trade.

轉向商品業務。能源、化學品和塑膠業務收入成長 2%，但銷量下降 5%。我們的基礎 ECP 特許經營權繼續透過協同效應、自助和市場份額成長為多種商品帶來收入和多樣化的銷售成長。本季的成長被原油產量的下降所抵消，這主要是由於我們的哈迪斯蒂碼頭發生故障。本季度，我們的液化石油氣和塑膠業務實現了強勁成長，因為我們現在繼續利用我們的網路作為陸橋，將加拿大的生產與墨西哥的目的地連接起來，並促進新的貿易。

Forest Products revenues were down 5% on flat volumes. Volumes in this space continue to be impacted by macro softness to the base demand. However, the team remains laser-focused on what we can control to driving synergies and extended length of haul, which is helping to offset some of these headwinds. Metals, Minerals & Consumer Products revenue was down 3% on a 1% volume decline. Increased tariffs on cross-border steel impacted volumes in the quarter, partially offset by higher frac sand. We continue to be encouraged by industrial development projects in this space with new aggregate and steel business ramping up the second half of the year.

林業產品收入在持平的情況下下降了 5%。該領域的交易量持續受到宏觀經濟對基本需求疲軟的影響。然而，團隊仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情，以推動協同效應和延長運輸時間，這有助於抵消其中的一些不利因素。金屬、礦產和消費品收入下降 3%，銷售量下降 1%。跨境鋼鐵關稅的提高影響了本季的鋼鐵銷量，但壓裂砂價格的上漲部分抵消了這一影響。我們繼續對該領域的工業發展項目感到鼓舞，新的骨料和鋼鐵業務將在下半年蓬勃發展。

Moving to Automotive. Revenue was down 5% on 8% volume growth. This continues to be an area of unique growth for CPKC driven by our advantaged footprint serving production plants and auto compounds across North America, along with our closed-loop service solution. While evolving trade policy resulted in some choppy volumes early in the second quarter, we are staying close to our customers, and we have recent wins in this space that continue to support our conviction and growth and another record year in Automotive.

轉向汽車產業。銷量成長 8%，但營收下降 5%。這仍然是 CPKC 獨特的成長領域，得益於我們為北美各地的生產工廠和汽車化合物提供服務的優勢以及我們的閉環服務解決方案。儘管不斷變化的貿易政策導致第二季度初交易量出現波動，但我們仍與客戶保持密切聯繫，並且我們最近在該領域取得了勝利，這繼續支持我們的信念和增長，並支持汽車行業再創紀錄的一年。

On the Intermodal side of the business, revenue was up 8% on 18% volume growth, another record quarter. Starting with International Intermodal. Volumes are up 28% on strong growth from Gemini as this alliance continues to ramp up volumes through our CPKC served ports at Vancouver, Port of St. John and Lazaro Cardenas. So although there is ongoing volatility within International Intermodal volumes, we continue to see upside for CPKC in the second half of the year.

在多式聯運業務方面，營收成長 8%，運輸量成長 18%，再創季度紀錄。從國際聯運開始。由於 Gemini 聯盟繼續透過我們 CPKC 服務的溫哥華港、聖約翰港和拉薩羅卡德納斯港增加貨運量，該聯盟的貨運量增加了 28%。因此，儘管國際多式聯運量持續波動，但我們仍然認為 CPKC 在下半年將有上漲空間。

We also delivered strong growth for Domestic intermodal with volumes up 8% and Momentum on our MMX continues with volumes on this service up 40% year over year and 20% sequentially from Q1 to Q2. And as more and more customers take advantage of the fastest, most efficient cross-border rail solution between Canada, the US, and Mexico.

我們的國內聯運業務也實現了強勁增長，貨運量增長了 8%，MMX 業務的勢頭持續增強，該服務的貨運量同比增長 40%，從第一季到第二季度環比增長 20%。越來越多的客戶利用加拿大、美國和墨西哥之間最快、最有效率的跨境鐵路解決方案。

Now looking ahead, there's a lot to be excited about in this space. We have a strong line of sight to domestic intermodal growth with our partner, Schneider as they continue to outperform in the marketplace. Second, we have new auto part ramping up and volumes out of America's cold storage warehouse co-located in Kansas City will start moving in August. And finally, I'm also excited about our SMX service that Keith spoke about with the -- this is our newest east-west service product that connects shippers between Mexico, Texas and the US Southeast.

現在展望未來，這個領域有很多值得興奮的事情。由於我們的合作夥伴施耐德在市場上持續表現出色，我們對國內聯運業務的成長有著清晰的預期。其次，我們有新的汽車零件不斷增加，位於堪薩斯城的美國冷藏倉庫的貨物將於 8 月開始運輸。最後，我也對 Keith 提到的 SMX 服務感到很興奮——這是我們最新的東西方服務產品，連接墨西哥、德克薩斯和美國東南部之間的托運人。

So to close, while the macro and trade policy remains uncertain and create certainly some choppiness across many of our customers' supply chains. Our unique franchise is proving its resilience and we continue to produce the new volume growth. Now looking forward, we are confident and our self-help growth initiatives, strong fundamentals that underpin our bulk business and our disciplined pricing strategy. And I feel good about our volume outlook as I look towards the full year.

最後，宏觀和貿易政策仍然不確定，並且肯定會給我們許多客戶的供應鏈帶來一些波動。我們獨特的特許經營權正在證明其韌性，我們將繼續實現新的銷售成長。展望未來，我們充滿信心，我們有自助成長計畫、支撐大宗業務的強勁基本面以及嚴謹的定價策略。展望全年，我對我們的銷量前景感到樂觀。

So with that, I'll hand it over to Nadeem.

因此，我將把發言權交給 Nadeem。

All right. Thanks, John. Good afternoon. I'd like to start by thanking our railroaders for their hard work as well and dedication of producing this quarter's strong results. Our system integration is a major merger milestone and having combined systems in Canada and the US will make this organization stronger and more efficient while also creating opportunities for efficiencies and savings as we have better visibility of data and the ability to optimize workflow.

好的。謝謝，約翰。午安.首先，我要感謝我們的鐵路工人的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，為本季取得了強勁的業績。我們的系統整合是一個重要的合併里程碑，合併加拿大和美國的系統將使該組織更加強大和高效，同時也創造提高效率和節約的機會，因為我們擁有更好的資料可見性和優化工作流程的能力。

Now turning to our second-quarter results on slide 12. CPKC's reported operating ratio was 63.7% and the core adjusted operating ratio came in at 60.7%, a 110 basis point improvement over last year. Diluted earnings per share was $1.33, and core adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.12, up 7% versus last year.

現在就來看看投影片 12 上的第二季業績。CPKC 報告的營運比率為 63.7%，核心調整後營運比率為 60.7%，比去年提高了 110 個基點。每股攤薄收益為 1.33 美元，核心調整後每股攤薄收益為 1.12 美元，較去年增長 7%。

Taking a closer look at our expenses on slide 13, I will speak to the year-over-year variances on an FX-adjusted basis. Comp and benefits expense was $659 million or $652 million adjusted for acquisition costs. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher stock-based compensation, inflation, and volume-driven increases from higher GTM. That increase was partially offset by lower incentive compensation, efficiency gains from workforce optimization and improved train weights. As you look to the rest of the year, we continue to expect our average head count to be roughly flat driving strong labor productivity gains against our expectation for mid-single-digit volume growth.

仔細查看幻燈片 13 上的我們的費用，我將討論外匯調整後的同比差異。薪資和福利支出為 6.59 億美元，根據收購成本調整後為 6.52 億美元。同比成長的動力來自於更高的股票薪酬、通貨膨脹以及更高的 GTM 帶來的銷售成長。但這一增長被較低的激勵薪酬、勞動力優化帶來的效率提升以及列車重量的增加部分抵消。展望今年剩餘時間，我們預計平均員工人數將基本持平，從而推動勞動生產力強勁成長，而我們預期產量將實現中等個位數成長。

Fuel expense was $405 million, down 12% year over year. The decline was driven by lower fuel price including the removal of the Canadian Federal Carbon Tax effective April 1. That decline was partially offset by higher GPMs from increased volumes. Overall, changes in fuel prices were a $0.02 headwind to EPS in the quarter. Materials expense was $124 million, up 29% year over year.

燃料費用為4.05億美元，年減12%。下降的原因在於燃料價格下跌，包括 4 月 1 日起取消加拿大聯邦碳稅。但銷量增加帶來的毛利率上升部分抵消了這一下降。總體而言，燃料價格的變化對本季每股收益造成了 0.02 美元的不利影響。材料費用為1.24億美元，年增29%。

The year-over-year increase was driven primarily by the long-term parts agreement that was put in place last year driving higher materials expense with a favorable offset within purchase services and other for net savings in the quarter. Additionally, we saw higher spend on safety materials and volume-driven increases in material expense.

同比增長主要由於去年實施的長期零件協議導致材料費用增加，但採購服務和其他方面得到有利的抵消，從而在本季度實現了淨節省。此外，我們還發現安全材料的支出增加，且材料費用因產量增加而增加。

Equipment rents were $103 million, up 23% year over year. The increase was driven primarily by higher car payments from increased dwell. Depreciation and amortization expense was up 4% and resulting from a higher -- from a larger asset base. Purchased services and other expense was $560 million adjusted for acquisition costs, down 5% year over year. The decline was driven primarily by savings from the long-term parts agreement and other productivity improvements. These savings were partially offset by cost inflation and volume-driven increases.

設備租金為 1.03 億美元，年增 23%。成長的主要原因是居住時間增加導致汽車付款增加。折舊和攤銷費用上漲了 4%，這是由於資產基礎擴大所致。經收購成本調整後，購買服務和其他費用為 5.6 億美元，年減 5%。下降的主要原因是長期零件協議和其他生產力改進帶來的節省。這些節省被成本上漲和銷售成長部分抵消。

Overall, we delivered strong financial results this quarter. Despite systems integration challenges that impacted earnings by $0.03 to $0.04, looking forward with operations largely restored, we expect the second half that fully recaptures the financial and operational momentum that we had prior to the integration -- systems integration.

總體而言，本季我們取得了強勁的財務業績。儘管系統整合挑戰對收益產生了 0.03 美元至 0.04 美元的影響，但展望未來，隨著營運基本恢復，我們預計下半年將完全恢復整合（系統整合）之前的財務和營運勢頭。

Moving below the line on slide 14. Other income was up $16 million in Q2, driven by lower equity income year over year. Other components of net periodic benefit recovery were $107 million, reflecting the effect of favorable pension plan asset returns in 2024. Net interest expense was $208 million or $203 million, excluding the impact of purchase accounting. The year-over-year increase was driven by interest occurred on new long-term notes.

移至投影片 14 上的線下方。由於股權收入年減，第二季其他收入增加了 1,600 萬美元。淨定期福利回收的其他部分為 1.07 億美元，反映了 2024 年退休金計畫資產回報有利的影響。淨利息支出為 2.08 億美元，扣除購買會計的影響後為 2.03 億美元。同比增長是由於新長期票據的利息所致。

In the quarter, we also recognized a $333 million pretax gain on sale of our 50% equity investment in the Panama Canal Railway Company, which is excluded from core adjusted results. Income tax expense was $357 million or $336 million adjusted for significant items and purchase accounting. For 2025, we continue to expect CPKC's core adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 24.5%.

本季度，我們也確認出售巴拿馬運河鐵路公司 50% 股權投資的稅前收益為 3.33 億美元，但這筆收益未計入核心調整後績效。所得稅費用為 3.57 億美元，根據重大項目和購買會計調整後為 3.36 億美元。到 2025 年，我們繼續預期 CPKC 的核心調整後有效稅率約為 24.5%。

Turning to slide 15 and cash flow. Q2 cash provided by operating activities increased 6% to $1.36 billion. We continued our strategic investments in the network for safety and growth with CapEx spend of $743 million in the quarter. Cash flow remains strong as we delivered $605 million in adjusted free cash for the quarter. As we continue to generate strong top line and earnings growth for the next several years while holding CapEx relatively flat. We expect continued strong cash flow generation as we reduce the capital intensity in the business.

翻到第 15 張投影片和現金流。第二季經營活動提供的現金增加 6% 至 13.6 億美元。我們繼續對網路安全和成長進行策略性投資，本季資本支出為 7.43 億美元。由於本季我們提供了 6.05 億美元的調整後自由現金，因此現金流依然強勁。未來幾年，我們將繼續實現強勁的營收和獲利成長，同時保持資本支出相對穩定。隨著我們降低業務的資本密集度，我們預計將繼續產生強勁的現金流。

Turning to our share repurchase program. We continue to take advantage of the volatility in the market to reward shareholders with disciplined and opportunistic returns. At the end of the second quarter, we repurchased 16.4 million shares or approximately 44% of the current program.

談談我們的股票回購計劃。我們繼續利用市場的波動來為股東提供有紀律的、機會性的回報。截至第二季末，我們回購了 1,640 萬股，約佔目前計畫的 44%。

As we look to the second half of the year, John and his team are delivering strong growth, and we are well on track to deliver mid-single-digit volumes for the year. The network is running well, and we continue to deliver discipline on price and cost control with more opportunities on that front in the second half. We feel very good about our guidance and CPKC remains well-positioned to once again lead the industry with double-digit earnings growth this year.

展望下半年，約翰和他的團隊正在實現強勁成長，我們預計今年將實現中等個位數的銷售量。網路運作良好，我們將繼續嚴格價格和成本控制，並在下半年在這方面獲得更多機會。我們對我們的指導感到非常滿意，CPKC 仍然處於有利地位，今年將再次以兩位數的盈利增長引領行業。

With that, let me turn things back over to Keith.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給基斯。

Thank you for the color gentlemen. Let's open it up for questions.

謝謝各位先生的顏色。讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

Keith, I just want to maybe address like you said the sort of elephant in the room, maybe you could expand a little bit on your thoughts here. I guess maybe the question is, as you see these industry dynamics playing out, I guess, how do you -- or what do you view CP sort of role in this process? Is there something to do from a strategic perspective are there commercial things that you can try to accomplish?

基思，我只是想談談你所說的房間裡的大象問題，也許你可以在這裡稍微闡述一下你的想法。我想也許問題是，當您看到這些行業動態發揮作用時，我想，您如何 - 或者您如何看待 CP 在此過程中扮演的角色？從策略角度來看，有什麼事情可以做嗎？有什麼商業的事情可以嘗試完成嗎？

And is this something that you sort of push back against, I guess, how do you think about it from a regulatory perspective? So just sort of broad comments on your view of what's happening.

這是您所反對的事嗎？從監管角度您怎麼看待這個問題？所以我只是根據你對正在發生的事情的看法做一些廣泛的評論。

Yeah. I think the answer is yes. Commercially, there's opportunity that undeniable. This network that we've created, again, the way we connect with and partner with all railroads across all three nations right down the middle of kind of the heart of America. It gives us a chance to create unique partnerships and alliances. That's what we bid about doing. That's what we'll continue to do. Again, the CSX example is but one example. So rest assured, this gives us an opportunity.

是的。我認為答案是肯定的。從商業角度來看，這其中存在著不可否認的機會。我們所創造的這個網絡，是我們與美國心臟地帶三個國家的所有鐵路進行聯繫和合作的方式。它為我們提供了建立獨特的合作夥伴關係和聯盟的機會。這就是我們要做的事。我們將繼續這樣做。再次強調，CSX 範例只是其中一個例子。所以請放心，這給了我們一個機會。

And obviously, the other party's motivation, where we can help them win in marketplaces and compete to create new revenues or to protect existing revenues to provide better service for customers or to win new customers that may or may not be concerned or might, I'd say, in this case, might be concerned about the risk that this proposed combination entails, it creates opportunities for us. So we're going to be hard at working those opportunities.

顯然，對方的動機是，我們可以幫助他們在市場上取勝，競爭以創造新的收入或保護現有收入，從而為客戶提供更好的服務或贏得新客戶，這些新客戶可能會或可能不會擔心，或者在這種情況下，我想說，可能會擔心這種擬議的組合所帶來的風險，它為我們創造了機會。因此，我們將努力抓住這些機會。

I know with the best of intentions, the applicants would say they're not going to be distracted. But the reality of it is having gone through this, the gravity of what they're pursuing is undoubtedly enormous. The complexity of it is undeniably enormous. There's going to be some distraction. And even if there were not, I guarantee there are some customers out there that they're sitting on the edge of their seats looking at their existing supply chains, trying to hedge their bets thinking what's at risk.

我知道，出於最好的意圖，申請人會說他們不會分心。但現實是，經歷過這一切之後，他們所追求的事情的重要性無疑是巨大的。不可否認，它的複雜性是巨大的。這會造成一些幹擾。即使沒有，我保證也會有一些客戶坐在座位邊上，關注他們現有的供應鏈，試圖規避風險，思考其中有哪些風險。

And what do they know? Their memories are not certainly clear from perhaps the condition the industry was in specifically in the US, undeniably three years ago. It was a world where UP was in trouble. BNSF is having challenges, NS was having challenges CSX is having challenges all coming out of the pandemic and all the associated kind of quasi melt down in the industry as a result of all those things, and those customers experienced a lot of pain and suffering.

他們知道什麼？他們的記憶可能不太清楚該行業的具體狀況，特別是三年前美國的狀況。這是一個北方邦陷入困境的世界。BNSF 面臨挑戰，NS 面臨挑戰，CSX 也面臨疫情帶來的挑戰，所有這些因素都導致了行業出現各種類似的崩潰，這些客戶經歷了巨大的痛苦和折磨。

So to think about a combination and the risk that's unfold before them, consolidating with an industry -- and I would suggest, undeniably, they said it themselves, two railroads that have part in that problematic history of less than ideal integrations they'd be irresponsible not to start looking at alternatives. So we're going to help in those discussions. It's our responsibility too. We owe that to our customers, we owe that to our shareholders. And I think the partners that we'll talk to that can play a part in that, we'll feel the same way. And in fact, I've already had a couple of conversations, and I can tell you the sentiment is aligned with the mine.

因此，考慮合併以及他們面臨的風險，與一個行業合併——我認為，不可否認，他們自己也這麼說過，兩家鐵路公司都有過不太理想的合併問題歷史，如果不開始尋找替代方案，那將是不負責任的。因此我們將協助進行這些討論。這也是我們的責任。這是我們向客戶應盡的義務，也是我們向股東應盡的義務。我認為，與我們交談的、能夠參與其中的合作夥伴也會有同樣的感受。事實上，我已經進行了幾次對話，我可以告訴你，他們的觀點與我的觀點一致。

That said, on the regulatory front, here's the other piece, Chris. This is not a stand-alone proposed this does not just affect UP and NS. UP and NS both know this, the regulator knows this. We all know this. This could well be the trigger, if this is approved and their facts fully represented, and that's our job to make sure they're fully represented before the SDB lead them to a decision that says this serves the public interest best.

話雖如此，在監管方面，還有另一部分，克里斯。這不是一個獨立的提議，它不僅影響 UP 和 NS。UP 和 NS 都知道這一點，監管機構也知道這一點。我們都知道這一點。如果該提案獲得批准，且其事實得到充分陳述，這很可能成為導火線，而我們的工作就是確保在 SDB 引導他們做出最符合公眾利益的決定之前，他們的事實得到充分陳述。

That could well and might likely trigger additional industry consolidation, an end-game scenario. So this downstream analysis that the worlds require is taken into consideration the new rules, which are new to UP they're untested, they're new to all us. This downstream effect when you're talking about enhancing competition that's going to be a fulsome and a broad review.

這很可能引發進一步的產業整合，也就是最終結果。因此，世界所需的下游分析考慮了新規則，這些規則對於 UP 來說是新的，未經測試的，對我們所有人來說都是新的。當你談論加強競爭時，這種下游效應將是一個全面而廣泛的審查。

So that application when it comes to the regulator has to speak to all those points. Again, it's not speaking to just the isolation and the benefits and the considerations of UP and NS, they're speaking to the entire industry. They're speaking to every customer that ships on any rail network in North America, and it is a North American rail network. So the gravity of this is not to be taken lightly. Jim Bennis said yesterday, and I believe Jim to his word, he hasn't taken this slightly.

因此，當涉及到監管機構時，該申請必須考慮到所有這些要點。再說一次，這不僅談論北方邦和南蘇丹的孤立、利益和考慮，他們談論的是整個產業。他們正在與北美任何鐵路網絡運輸的每一位客戶進行交談，這是一個北美鐵路網。因此，這個問題的嚴重性不容小覷。吉姆·本尼斯昨天說，我相信吉姆的話，他並沒有因此而掉以輕心。

But at the same time, we have a responsibility to make sure that their view aligns with what our view is, and I'm sure the other railroads would speak for themselves, they would feel the same that the view is wholesome and full in the case and the evidence is fully represented. So a lot to be said about that. I kind of think it boils down to thinking about that public interest test.

但同時，我們有責任確保他們的觀點與我們的觀點一致，而且我相信其他鐵路公司也會表達自己的意見，他們也會認為該觀點是完整、充分的，證據也得到了充分體現。關於這一點有很多話要說。我認為這歸根結底就是考慮公眾利益測試。

The core public interest question will get down to a point of whether or not this two duopoly structure truly serves the public interest. But it is the trigger that leads us to that potential outcome. The regulator knows that. The regulations have anticipated that. That's the reason they were written in the first place in 2001.

公共利益問題的核心在於，這兩大巨頭的壟斷結構是否真正符合公共利益。但它卻是導致我們產生這潛在結果的觸發因素。監管機構知道這一點。法規已經預見了這一點。這就是它們在 2001 年被寫下來的原因。

And quite frankly, again, I go back to taking people at their word, UP was very active in those comments. They said they believed it to be true then in their comments and opposition to other proposed transactions at that time. So if it was true for UP then, it was factual then, again, how can you deny that it's not factual now? So more to follow, we're going to be active participants. And again, the truth matters, and we've got a little experience making sure that the truth is understood and heard and we're going to continue -- we're going to apply that muscle memory in this case as well.

坦白說，我再次相信人們的話，UP 在這些評論中非常活躍。他們當時在評論和反對其他擬議交易時表示，他們相信這是真的。因此，如果這對當時的北方邦來說是真實的，那麼它就是事實，那麼，你怎麼能否認它現在不是事實呢？接下來我們將積極參與。再說一次，真相很重要，我們有一點經驗，可以確保真相被理解和聽到，我們將繼續——我們也將在這個案件中運用這種肌肉記憶。

Fadi Chamoun, BMO.

法迪·查蒙（BMO）。

Yes. Thanks for that perspective, Keith. Just maybe a quick follow-up, just trying to make sure I and others could be a proper takeaway. Through a regulatory process and assuming we have an end game with transcon networks in the US is the commercial opportunity for CP neutral or potentially better than they are today?

是的。謝謝你的觀點，基斯。也許只是一個快速的跟進，只是想確保我和其他人能夠得到適當的收穫。透過監管流程並假設我們與美國的跨大陸網路有最終的合作，那麼 CP 的商業機會是否中立或可能比現在更好？

And my main question is, I wanted to ask like when you look at the pipeline of opportunity that I think John highlighted and you highlighted kind of early in the call going into H2 and into 2026. Is this mid-single-digit volume run rate that we're seeing and you -- it looks like you can potentially sustain going into '26. Can that be achieved even in a scenario of the economy is stable, not really gaining any momentum from where we are today is the pipeline sufficient to kind of say we can get this level of growth on a sustained basis going into the next two-quarter-plus 2026?

我的主要問題是，我想問一下，當您看到約翰強調的機會管道時，您在電話會議的早期就強調了進入下半年和 2026 年的情況。我們看到的這個銷售運行率是不是處於中位數個位數？看起來，您有可能維持到 26 年。即使在經濟穩定的情況下，我們能否實現這一目標，而目前的情況並沒有真正獲得任何動力，是否有足夠的潛力可以說我們可以在 2026 年接下來的兩個季度內持續保持這種增長水平？

I'll start with answering that. The answer is yes. We see an ability to be able to do that, Fadi. And then let me go back to the question about the merger. Kind of the way I see this as the only way one or two mega mergers get accomplished is if they meet and exceed the public interest test, which means they've enhanced competition, not just preserve competition, which means they've adeptly consider downstream impacts, which means to do that, the only way to meet that standard in my mind is a definition that will ultimately be defined by the STB that involves concessions.

我先來回答這個問題。答案是肯定的。我們看到了能夠做到這一點的能力，法迪。然後讓我回到有關合併的問題。我認為，一兩起大型合併要成功，唯一的辦法就是滿足並超越公眾利益測試，這意味著他們不僅保持了競爭，還增強了競爭，這意味著他們巧妙地考慮了下游影響，在我看來，要做到這一點，唯一符合這一標準的方法就是由 STB 最終定義涉及讓步的定義。

Concessions that when you have a network, again, that uniquely connects north to south, right down the -- of America, connects US connects Canada, connects all these different markets. We have a network and a foundation that -- with the right concessions, and rest assured will be arguing the case and the need to meet the enhanced competition, perhaps, Houston that we don't have unfettered access to compete into today. We don't have an ability to sell into or sell directly out of Houston.

當你擁有一個獨特的網路時，它連接南北，一直到美洲，連接美國，連接加拿大，連接所有這些不同的市場。我們擁有一個人脈和一個基礎——透過適當的讓步，我們保證將會為之辯護，並滿足日益激烈的競爭的需要，也許，休士頓是我們今天無法不受限制地參與競爭的地方。我們沒有能力向休士頓銷售產品或直接從休士頓銷售產品。

In the world tomorrow, what markets might open up as a result of that, that we could uniquely feed with other partners in our network that's enhanced competition. And you can apply that same definition, go up our railroad to the network or go to Kansas City. What about the industry in Kansas City, go to St. Louis. What about the industries in St. Louis. If you go to Baton Rouge, you go to Searsport.

在未來的世界中，哪些市場可能會因此而開放，我們可以與我們網路中的其他合作夥伴一起提供獨特的服務，從而增強競爭力。您可以應用相同的定義，沿著我們的鐵路進入網路或前往堪薩斯城。堪薩斯城的工業怎麼樣，去聖路易斯吧。聖路易斯的工業怎麼樣？如果您去巴吞魯日，您就會去西爾斯波特。

Go to these common locations which have significant industry basis, which today are not open to our network in an unfettered way, which become unfettered, which have whatever the final definition of open access is, interswitching to our network to use our length of haul to use our reach to bridge to another railroad to bridge in Mexico to bridge into Canada.

前往這些具有重要行業基礎的共同地點，這些地點今天還沒有以不受約束的方式向我們的網絡開放，這些地點將變得不受約束，無論開放訪問的最終定義是什麼，都可以切換到我們的網絡，利用我們的運輸長度，利用我們的覆蓋範圍連接到另一條鐵路，連接到墨西哥，連接到加拿大。

So again, our network, the strength of this network we put together allows us to compete and win in any of these scenarios. It's that unique that certainly -- there's certainly, we're going to have to compete. But when you have a good service and a great team and a great network, that should never and will never intimidate this railroad. And we're proud to be able to say that. We don't say that just for the benefit of ourselves, but equally, it's important for the benefit of all stakeholders we partner with. And that's our partner railroads. That's our customers today and tomorrow, and that's our employees and our shareholders.

所以，我們的網絡，我們建立的這個網絡的力量使我們能夠在任何情況下競爭並獲勝。它的獨特性確實如此——我們當然必須參與競爭。但是當你擁有良好的服務、優秀的團隊和強大的網絡時，這些都不應該、也永遠不會嚇倒這條鐵路。我們很自豪能夠這麼說。我們這樣說不僅僅是為了我們自己的利益，同樣，這對我們合作的所有利害關係人的利益也很重要。這就是我們的合作鐵路。這是我們今天和明天的客戶，也是我們的員工和股東。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬納森·查佩爾（Jonathan Chappell），Evercore ISI。

I'm going to bring it back to CPKC. Nadeem, thanks for the $0.03 to $0.04 impact from the system crossover. From a cost revenue OR perspective, is there a way to quantify that for the second quarter? And then was it fully ring to that period? Or is there going to be some overhang into July? And just how do we think about that sequential impact moving from 2Q to 3Q?

我要把它帶回 CPKC。Nadeem，感謝系統交叉帶來的 0.03 美元到 0.04 美元的影響。從成本收入或角度來看，有沒有辦法量化第二季？那麼它是否完全符合那個時期的要求呢？或者七月還會出現一些懸而未決的情況？那我們如何看待從第二季到第三季的連續影響呢？

Yes. So I'd say it's about $30 million to $40 million of revenue impact overall. So -- and then a bit of -- you saw that some of our operating metrics that were hampered during that post the day end period where we had additional dwell. We had some impacts from overall velocity as well and impacted fuel efficiency.

是的。所以我認為這對總收入的影響約為 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元。所以 — — 然後有一點 — — 您會看到我們的一些營運指標在當天結束後的額外停留期間受到了阻礙。我們也受到了整體速度和燃油效率的影響。

So the remainder of kind of operating income is tied to higher expenses and missed efficiency opportunities. I'd say there's a small carryover into July but not significant as far as some of the -- on the cost side, limited on the revenue side. So we'll start Q3 pretty fresh, I'd say.

因此，剩餘的營業收入與更高的支出和錯失的效率機會有關。我想說，7 月會有少量結轉，但就成本方面而言並不顯著，在收入方面則有限。所以我想說，我們將以全新的姿態開始第三季。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀的湯姆·韋德維茨（Tom Wadewitz）。

Yes. So Keith, you -- I mean you have in kind of a different setting expressed a pretty favorable view on single-line service. And I think even looking at the success of the 180, 181, relative to your competitor, single line is important. Do you think that there -- I guess, when you look at it, you're taking it seemingly a pretty strong position or a strong view versus the UP, NS. Do you think that there are kind of opportunities they have a line intermodal that would not affect CP?

是的。所以，基思，你——我的意思是，你在不同的環境中表達了對單線服務相當有利的看法。我認為，即使從 180、181 相對於競爭對手的成功來看，單線也很重要。您是否認為——我想，當您看待它時，您似乎對北方邦和新斯科細亞省持相當強硬的立場或強烈的觀點。您是否認為他們有機會建立一種不會影響 CP 的聯運線路？

Or I guess, I just want to understand a little bit better why you -- there are some things that seem like they could be good for rail service, good rail market, it wouldn't necessarily be harmful to you. So is the concern about market power, is the concern about -- just want to understand that a little bit better, recognizing that it seems like there is a case for single line service and broadening rail markets.

或者我想，我只是想更好地理解為什麼——有些事情似乎對鐵路服務、良好的鐵路市場有利，但不一定會對你有害。因此，對市場力量的擔憂，是對——只是想更好地理解這一點，並認識到似乎存在單線服務和擴大鐵路市場的情況。

Yes. Well, let me start with this. In isolation, I'm never going to argue against the benefits of single line service for any railroad and any customer. If a railroad can operate their network appropriately and manage their capacity and their service and produce the benefits of a single line move for a customer. I mean that's the gold standard.

是的。好吧，讓我從這個開始。就我個人而言，我絕對不會反對單線服務為任何鐵路和任何客戶帶來的好處。如果鐵路能夠適當地運作其網路並管理其運能和服務，並為客戶帶來單線營運的益處。我的意思是這是黃金標準。

So I'm not going to say that suggest that what UP and NS has proposed or what any combination will propose that enables that outcome if it's exercised and produced the right way is not a superior product. It's tough to compete against. I stand by that statement.

因此，我不會說 UP 和 NS 所提出的方案，或任何能夠實現這一結果的組合所提出的方案，如果以正確的方式實施和生產，就不是優質產品。競爭非常激烈。我堅持這說法。

But the reality is, this isn't just a stand-alone isolated review of single-line service. There are so many more multiple facets and complexities to get created by the combination that has to be weighed into this that will be in our analysis. So if I look specifically at intermodal, their single-line service intermodal doesn't -- line service intermodal. They don't have a network in Canada. That's where we're strong.

但事實上，這不僅僅是對單線服務的獨立審查。在我們的分析中，需要權衡組合所產生的多種面向和複雜性。因此，如果我專門研究聯運，他們的單線服務聯運並不——線服務聯運。他們在加拿大沒有網路。這就是我們的優勢。

We played a strength of our network. We have the shortest routes in the most key markets, and we do extremely well with the premium service in Canada. With our combination, we've replicated that same model from Chicago to Mexico. This proposal doesn't impact that. It doesn't replicate that. It doesn't replace that. So again, I'm not threatened by that at all.

我們發揮了我們網路的優勢。我們在大多數關鍵市場擁有最短的航線，並且在加拿大的優質服務方面做得非常出色。透過我們的結合，我們將同樣的模式從芝加哥複製到了墨西哥。這項提議不會影響這一點。它不會複製這一點。它並不能取代它。所以再說一遍，我根本不會受到任何威脅。

So again, single line service is the gold standard. If you can do it and execute it the right way and manage railroad, to deliver a service that allows the customer to benefit from reliable service, efficient service that will let you turn assets and take out handlings in car savings. All those are to be true in a formula, I agree completely with Jim that we're aligned on that. It's undeniable truth. But again, this isn't just about single-line service. This is about a whole lot more than that.

所以，再說一次，單線服務是黃金標準。如果您能夠做到這一點並以正確的方式執行並管理鐵路，那麼提供的服務將使客戶受益於可靠的服務，高效的服務將使您能夠轉換資產並節省汽車費用。所有這些都是公式中的真實情況，我完全同意吉姆的觀點，我們在這一點上是一致的。這是無可否認的事實。但這不僅涉及單線服務。這其中涉及的內容遠不止這些。

And again, all the facts I have to make sure that they're known and understood as it relates not only to UP and NS and their customers that would benefit from that, but also as it relates to a duopoly system railroads in this North American network. That's potentially what we're going to. That's what this triggers, most likely. And they know that, and we know that, and you know that. How that all shakes out, I don't know.

再次強調，我必須確保所有事實都被人們知曉和理解，因為這不僅與北方鐵路和新斯科舍省鐵路以及從中受益的客戶有關，而且也與北美鐵路網絡中的雙頭壟斷體系鐵路有關。這可能就是我們要做的。這很可能就是引發這件事的原因。他們知道這一點，我們也知道這一點，你們也知道這一點。我不知道這一切會如何結束。

The outcome of that will be determined by the regulator. We'll all be watching closely and we'll all be participating intently to again make sure that the best decision, the best facts are presented to the STB that are fulsome and allows them to serve that public interest test in the end, if they say, yes, this is in the public interest and this being a likely duopoly system. Based on what conditions, which will define the concessions which will tell -- allow me to find or tune how much we might benefit with this network as it relates to that -- those combinations.

其結果將由監管機構決定。我們都會密切關注，全心全意參與，再次確保向新加坡旅遊局提供最好的決定和最充分的事實，並最終讓他們能夠滿足公眾利益的考驗，如果他們說，是的，這符合公眾利益，而且這可能是一個雙頭壟斷體系。根據什麼條件，這將決定讓步，這將告訴我 - 請允許我找到或調整我們可以從這個網路中獲得多少利益 - 這些組合。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Just wanted to ask a little bit more, Keith, you covered the public interest aspect of all this. But they also have to prove that the only way to get these benefits is through a merger. So I just wanted to see if you can elaborate on some of the partnerships and JVs that you're talking about here. Obviously, it's hard to compete with single lines, so maybe that's the answer. And then clearly, as I mentioned, long history and long memories of service problems and integration challenge, I mean yourself had one here in the Southern US.

只是想多問一點，基思，你談到了這一切的公共利益方面。但他們也必須證明獲得這些好處的唯一方法是透過合併。所以我只是想看看您是否可以詳細說明您在這裡談到的一些合作夥伴關係和合資企業。顯然，單線競爭很困難，所以也許這就是答案。然後顯然，正如我所提到的，服務問題和整合挑戰有著悠久的歷史和長期的記憶，我的意思是你們在美國南部就遇到這樣的問題。

Do you think that's a read-through to what could happen with maybe more complicated mergers and integrations? And how do you think they'll be able to address that credibly and say we won't have a wide system-wide this year if we go down this route?

您是否認為這是對可能出現的更複雜的合併和整合的解釋？如果我們繼續這樣下去，您認為他們將如何令人信服地解決這個問題，並說我們今年將不會有全系統的大規模疫情？

Yes. Yes, I would say -- let me start there. The gravity of challenges we had integrating that were isolated to the most southern part of our network. In comparison to the complexity and gravity of getting this wrong. So again, not to be taken lightly, not that I would suggest they would, but it can be overwhelming.

是的。是的，我想說——讓我從那裡開始。我們面臨的嚴峻挑戰在於，將這些孤立於我們網路最南端的部分整合起來。與犯錯的複雜性和嚴重性相比。所以，再說一次，不要掉以輕心，我並不是建議他們這樣做，但這可能會讓人不知所措。

And the complexity of it with the best of intentions. I know how much effort we put at it. I know how much money we spend and now much time we took, but knowing and integrating a system seamlessly that you replace on your own network is uniquely different than taking that same system and apply it to somebody else's -- thousands sold, not to be underestimated.

儘管出於良好的意圖，但其複雜性仍然存在。我知道我們為此付出了多少努力。我知道我們花了多少錢，花了多少時間，但了解和無縫集成一個系統並在您自己的網絡上替換它與將同一個系統應用到其他人的網絡上是完全不同的——銷售了數千個，不容小覷。

So if you get that wrong, and that's the challenge of this, and that's what these reviews and all these assessments have to take into effect. A network that big if it gets sick, it's not isolated to a particular geographic region in the nation. The entire nation is going to get sick. That's the magnitude of this.

所以如果你弄錯了，這就是這個問題的挑戰，這就是這些審查和所有這些評估必須考慮到的。如此龐大的網路一旦出現問題，其影響範圍並不僅限於全國的某個特定地理區域。整個國家都會生病。這就是這件事的嚴重性。

So then back to -- if you think about what you could do in exhausting alliances before you entertain a merger or the risks that are associated with these types of mergers. I would say it's our responsibility to make sure that we've exhausted follow those opportunities. And I can't answer for UP or NS have they. I can tell you that we haven't. I can tell you that our network that's been created is just beginning to get busy doing those things.

那麼回到——如果你考慮在考慮合併之前你可以做些什麼來耗盡聯盟，或者考慮與這些類型的合併相關的風險。我想說，我們有責任確保我們充分利用這些機會。我無法回答北方邦和新斯科細亞省的情況。我可以告訴你，我們沒有。我可以告訴你們，我們建立的網路才剛開始忙於做這些事情。

Now a year from now, two years from now, three years from now, we'll be further along, yes. But I would suggest I know that UP and NS understands the benefits some of those alliances. They're benefited from it now over the Meridian Speedway. You've got UP running big trains that are coming out of Western US that go straight to the Southeast markets over our LLC, which is in partnership with NS.

是的，一年後、兩年後、三年後，我們會取得更大的進步。但我想說，北方邦和新斯科細亞省了解這些聯盟的一些好處。他們現在比 Meridian Speedway 更受益。您已讓 UP 運行大型列車，這些列車從美國西部出發，透過我們與 NS 合作的 LLC 直達東南市場。

So they know the benefits now. I would ask -- can challenge if you've done that in other parts of the network, if you're so aligned together, have you exhausted that? And only they can answer that question. No different -- I heard some rhetoric or discussion yesterday, which I agree with, over the benefits of step-on/step-off interchange trains.

所以他們現在知道了好處。我想問一下——如果你們已經在網路的其他部分這樣做了，如果你們如此一致，你們是否已經用盡了這一點？只有他們才能回答這個問題。沒什麼不同——昨天我聽到了一些關於階梯式換乘列車好處的言論或討論，我同意這些言論或討論。

We call those direct hit trains in our industry much better than going into Chicago, for instance, for perfect example an illustration, going to one of the belt railroads or winning our terminals and switching cars out and all that associated delay. I believe in it so much that we do it today with NS in Chicago. It's a step on step up, both ways. We don't go into the belt. They don't go into the belt. We switch in our terminals, they switch in their terminals. When we get to Chicago, it's a handoff. Our runs through cruise change, as if you're merged together.

我們稱這些直接命中的列車在我們的行業中比進入芝加哥要好得多，例如，舉個完美的例子，去一條環城鐵路或贏得我們的終點站並切換車廂以及所有相關的延誤。我對此深信不疑，因此我們今天在芝加哥與 NS 一起做了這件事。這對雙方來說都是一個進步。我們不進入這條帶。他們不進入腰帶。我們在我們的終端上切換，他們也在他們的終端上切換。當我們到達芝加哥時，這是一個交接。我們的航程經過巡航變化，彷彿你們融為一體。

So again, I would ask, if you believe in that, have you exhausted all those avenues? Have you looked at, in this case, the potential proposed network, which is NS and UP and looked at these gateways that as they propose will eventually be connected. Why not do it now? What are you waiting on? If the gains are there and the benefits are there for your customers, don't we have a responsibility to go mine those opportunities.

因此，我再次問一下，如果您相信這一點，您是否已經用盡了所有途徑？在這種情況下，您是否考慮過潛在的建議網絡，即 NS 和 UP，並考慮過他們提議最終連接的這些網關。為什麼不現在就做呢？還在等什麼？如果可以帶來收益，並且可以為您的客戶帶來好處，我們不應該有責任去挖掘這些機會嗎？

And that's true, it applies the responsibility to the entire industry. So to me, that is a great question to ask. And only the applicants can answer the question. Have they exhausted all those opportunities. I know we have it. I can only speak for us.

確實如此，它將責任推到整個產業。所以對我來說，這是一個很好的問題。只有申請人才能回答這個問題。他們是否已經用盡了所有這些機會？我知道我們擁有它。我只能代表我們發言。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

Walter Spracklin，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Can we just do kind of a hypothetical where, let's say, the transcon mergers do go ahead. In that scenario, Keith, what are the options where -- are you suggesting that commercial options are the main and only course of action for you? Or would you consider as well going to around two of consolidation and looking to involve yourself CP with one of the transcon railroads? From a consolidation standpoint.

我們能否做一個假設，比如說，跨大陸合併確實會繼續進行。在這種情況下，基思，有哪些選擇——您是否認為商業選擇是您的主要和唯一的行動方案？或者您會考慮進行兩家左右的合併並希望讓自己參與其中一條跨大陸鐵路的 CP？從合併的角度來看。

I think the simplest way to answer that is our responsibility at CPKC is to make sure we remain in the best position to create shareholder value and all stakeholder value. That's what our obligation is. So as that plays out, as this unfolds, we certainly will be active participants for we're going to be active observers as well. This team and this network represents industry unique value, an industry unique strength. So in all these multiple scenarios, you can whiteboard them all, and I'm sure we're going to eventually get to a point where we think can evaluate, consider all.

我認為回答這個問題最簡單的方式是，我們在 CPKC 的責任是確保我們始終處於最佳位置，以創造股東價值和所有利害關係人的價值。這就是我們的義務。因此，隨著事情的發展，我們肯定會成為積極的參與者，因為我們也會成為積極的觀察者。這個團隊和這個網絡代表著產業獨特的價值、產業獨特的實力。因此，在所有這些多種場景中，您都可以將它們全部寫在白板上，我相信我們最終將達到我們認為可以評估和考慮所有內容的程度。

But I could make a case that in any mix that you proposed, but one, there's one that we never would be able to from -- for obvious reasons, partner with in that kind of way. This industry and this team, this network within this industry, this team and this network represent compelling value. And it's our job to make sure it's a lot.

但我可以證明，在您提出的任何組合中，有一種是我們永遠無法以那種方式合作的——原因顯而易見。這個產業和這個團隊、這個產業內的這個網路、這個團隊和這個網路代表著令人信服的價值。我們的工作就是確保數量足夠。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. So Keith, when you talk about enhanced competition and concessions. If you just think about your wish list of what you'd want to get like what's the opportunity for CP? Is this tens of millions of dollars, hundreds of millions of dollars. I don't know if there's a way to quantify it, but any thought on it. And then maybe just back to just like the quarter and earnings, Nadeem, any thoughts on how to just think about the OR progression in Q3 and the back half of the year?

謝謝。那麼，基思，當你談到加強競爭和讓步時。如果您只是考慮一下您想要得到的願望清單，那麼 CP 的機會是什麼？這是幾千萬美元，幾億美元嗎？我不知道是否有辦法量化它，但對此有任何想法。然後也許只是回到季度和收益，Nadeem，對於如何考慮第三季度和下半年的 OR 進展有什麼想法嗎？

Sure, let me just answer that, Scott. I mean, we'll continue to see sequential improvements Q3. And I think at Q4 be typically our strongest quarter of the year. And so you'll see kind of a step function improvement in Q4 versus Q3. And we've mentioned this year a couple of times that we see the sub-60 OR for the year.

當然，讓我來回答這個問題，史考特。我的意思是，我們將繼續看到第三季的連續改善。我認為第四季通常是我們一年中表現最強勁的季度。因此，您會看到第四季相對於第三季出現了階躍函數式的改善。我們今年已經提到過幾次，預計今年的 OR 將低於 60。

So I think the we're not backing off of that. There's no need to. We still see a visibility with strong volumes and the recovery of the network and I think we can achieve that for the year as well with that.

所以我認為我們不會退縮。沒必要。我們仍然看到了強勁的交易量和網路復甦的跡象，我認為我們今年也可以實現這一目標。

Scott, I'll -- hypothetically, and again, this is hypothetically, I can't really give you a good answer until I see what the concessions would be. Now I've got a list, I've got some ideas. But depending on how successful we are in achieving those outcomes. We'll determine what that number is going to be. And listen, I'm not naive.

史考特，我－假設，再說一次，這只是假設，在我看到讓步是什麼之前，我無法給你一個好的答案。現在我有了一個清單，也有一些想法。但這取決於我們實現這些成果的成功程度。我們將確定這個數字是多少。聽著，我並不天真。

I'm not going to misrepresent the need to compete. We're going to have to compete. No doubt about it. But again, the reach of this network allows us to create unique outcomes and what we might lose in one location, perhaps because there might be some single-line service created that we can't replicate.

我不會扭曲競爭的必要性。我們必須競爭。毫無疑問。但是，這個網路的覆蓋範圍使我們能夠創造獨特的結果，並且我們可能會在一個地方失去一些東西，也許是因為可能創建了一些我們無法複製的單線服務。

Either our sales in door through a seamless partnership with a motivated partner. Then again, we'll have to compete, but I guarantee we'll offset it in other areas. I heard something yesterday about the desire to go after Canadian ports and attack traffic that's convert traffic, maybe a tax a bad word, convert traffic that's destined for US. So I can tell you, and I'll let John provide a bit of color, that's not a lot for us. That's not a place that we have a lot of experience. So again, the puts and takes, that's not a big one on my take list.

我們的銷售是透過與積極的合作夥伴進行無縫合作實現的。話又說回來，我們必須競爭，但我保證我們會在其他領域彌補這一差距。昨天我聽到一些關於想要攻擊加拿大港口並攻擊轉換流量的消息，也許對去往美國的轉換流量徵稅是一個壞詞。所以我可以告訴你，我會讓約翰提供一些顏色，這對我們來說並不多。那不是一個我們有豐富經驗的地方。所以，再說一遍，投入和產出，這不是我所考慮的事情中的重要事項。

Scott, I hope they're not banking the business case on that volume. It's barely a percent of our revenues and honestly, we feel pretty good about the structural advantage that Vancouver has been able to provide over the years. You can historically look at these volumes. And certainly, they move back and forth. You get a labor disruption down in L.A. Long Beach, and it all flows north. You get a same one we had last year in Vancouver and you saw some of the volume slide back out.

史考特，我希望他們不要把商業案例寄託在數量上。這只占我們收入的百分之一，老實說，我們對溫哥華多年來所提供的結構性優勢感到非常滿意。您可以從歷史角度來查看這些卷。當然，它們會來回移動。洛杉磯長灘發生勞工騷亂，一切都向北流動。您會遇到和去年溫哥華一樣的情況，並且會看到部分交易量回落。

And I think the other point is you got to realize the majority of that traffic we haul does not -- they don't need a merger to compete against it. It's Chicago, it's Minneapolis. Is the bottom line and asking all that direct out of the East Coast ports into Chicago and UP can obviously hit both of those markets today. That traffic is available. So we feel pretty comfortable with the service product out of Vancouver that we produce out of St. John that we produce. And at the end of the day, as Keith said, we'll compete. If we need to compete. We're going to compete today. We'll compete tomorrow for that traffic.

我認為另一點是，你必須意識到，我們所運送的大部分貨物並不需要合併來與之競爭。這是芝加哥，這是明尼阿波利斯。底線是，要求所有從東海岸港口直達芝加哥和北方邦的貨物今天顯然可以衝擊這兩個市場。該流量可用。因此，我們對在溫哥華和聖約翰生產的服務產品感到非常滿意。正如基思所說，最終我們會競爭。如果我們需要競爭。今天我們要參加比賽。明天我們將爭奪該流量。

Scott, I can't resist asking 35% -- Scott, I can't resist asking. It's 75% odds of getting the deal approved. You must have a pretty meaningful concession list in mind to pass the public interest test. So maybe we take that one offline, but I'm interested in your answer to that one.

史考特，我忍不住要問 35%──史考特，我忍不住要問。該交易獲得批准的幾率為 75%。您必須在心中有一個非常有意義的讓步清單才能通過公眾利益測試。所以也許我們可以把這個問題離線，但我對你的回答很感興趣。

Happy to catch up any time.

很高興隨時趕上。

All right. Thanks, Scott.

好的。謝謝，斯科特。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基。

Keith, I recall a pretty epic -- but John, maybe you can speak to the specifics of tariffs on your business and the growth outlook just looking into the back half of the year. How is that impacting the auto business, maybe specifically but broadly, should we be thinking about other impacts that may (technical difficulty)

基思，我記得一個相當史詩般的 - 但是約翰，也許你可以談談對你的業務徵收關稅的具體情況以及展望下半年的增長前景。這對汽車產業有何影響？具體來說，但從廣義上講，我們是否應該考慮其他可能的影響？（技術難度）

Brandon, you're kind of breaking up a little bit. I think I got most of this. Looking at the back half of the year, undeniable trade uncertainty and macro issues. We're keeping it pretty basic. We're focused on the self-help initiatives, the synergies and frankly, that's what's driven our differentiated growth these last couple of years.

布蘭登，你有點崩潰了。我想我已了解了大部分內容。展望下半年，貿易不確定性和宏觀問題不可否認。我們將其保持在非常基礎的狀態。我們專注於自助措施和協同效應，坦白說，這正是過去幾年推動我們實現差異化成長的動力。

The good news is that pipeline remains strong, and we see a good building of that through the second half of the year. Second piece is our bulk franchise. We had a really strong output for second half of the year on our bulk franchise. I think I mentioned we got really good grain crops framing up across our US network and also across Canada.

好消息是，管道依然強勁，我們預計今年下半年管道建設將取得良好進展。第二部分是我們的批量特許經營權。我們的散裝特許經營業務在下半年取得了非常強勁的產出。我想我提到過，我們的美國網絡和加拿大各地都收穫了非常好的穀物作物。

We got record potash relationship with Canpotex and that business has never been stronger. It's performing quite well, and we got a really strong call outlook the second half of the year. You couple that with strong pricing and disciplined pricing, we'll continue to deliver. And I feel good about where we're set up. We're -- July is roughly 3% RTM. We're around that 5% number. And we got some favorable comps as we lap some of the issues we had in the second half of the year last year.

我們與 Canpotex 建立了創紀錄的鉀肥合作關係，而且這項業務從未如此強勁。它的表現相當不錯，我們對今年下半年的前景非常樂觀。再加上強勁的定價和嚴格的定價，我們將繼續提供服務。我對我們的現狀感到很滿意。我們—7 月的 RTM 約為 3%。我們的數字大約是 5%。由於我們解決了去年下半年遇到的一些問題，因此我們獲得了一些有利的業績。

On the tariff front, I would boil it down to three areas where we've seen impact and we'll -- depending on what happens, we'll probably continue to see an impact here. Essentially, our steel business, our cross-border steel business is, for all practical purposes, shut down at this point at a 50% tariff level. We've had to work hard to sort of back it fill and find other opportunities with those customers, and we'll continue to do that.

在關稅方面，我將其歸結為三個我們已經看到影響的領域，我們將 - 根據發生的情況，我們可能會繼續看到影響。從本質上講，我們的鋼鐵業務，我們的跨境鋼鐵業務，實際上，在 50% 的關稅水平下已經關閉。我們必須努力填補空缺，並為這些客戶尋找其他機會，我們會繼續這樣做。

The automotive space, yes, it's been choppy some start -- the good news is we also have created a service product that I would say is industry best in leading and albeit -- we've seen choppiness. We continue to see growth with these customers and the desire to convert more and more to our single line haul product and to use our compound.

是的，在汽車領域，一開始確實有些不穩定——好消息是，我們還創造了一種服務產品，我認為它是行業領先的，儘管——我們也看到了波動。我們持續看到這些客戶的成長，並且他們越來越希望轉向我們的單線運輸產品和使用我們的複合材料。

So we've been able to insulate ourselves in that space by ongoing growth with those customers. And then the last piece is the international space where certainly we've seen pretty significant ebbs and flows. And that's probably going to continue. We're going to watch close the back half of the year. on sort of what that area looks like.

因此，透過與這些客戶的持續成長，我們能夠在該領域中立足。最後一點是國際空間，我們當然看到了相當明顯的起伏。而這種情況可能還會持續下去。我們將在今年下半年關注該地區的狀況。

As Keith said in his opening remarks, the good news in that space is our partnership with Maersk and Hapag through Gemini is as strong as it's ever been with those partners. They're producing the volumes. And as much as Vancouver has been a success, we're seeing good growth with the Port of St. John, that's going to continue. And honestly, we saw a dip in some of our Lazaro traffic here the last couple of months, but I can tell you the bookings here in the next couple of months look much stronger.

正如基思在開場白中所說，該領域的好消息是，我們透過 Gemini 與馬士基和赫伯羅特建立的合作夥伴關係一如既往地牢固。他們正在製作這些卷。溫哥華取得了成功，同時我們也看到聖約翰港的良好成長，這種勢頭將會持續下去。老實說，過去幾個月我們發現這裡的 Lazaro 客流量有所下降，但我可以告訴您，未來幾個月這裡的預訂量看起來會強勁得多。

So we're excited pushing that product as much as we can up into the US market. So again, you're kind of breaking up, but I hope that captured most of it.

因此，我們很高興盡可能地將該產品推向美國市場。所以，再說一次，你們有點分手了，但我希望這已經涵蓋了大部分內容。

Yes, you got it, John. Sorry, I'm on that train actually right now.

是的，你明白了，約翰。抱歉，我現在確實就在那趟火車上。

Good place to be.

好地方。

Good choice to travel.

旅行的好選擇。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里·羅莎 (Ari Rosa)。

Keith, you mentioned you had some conversations already, just kind of preliminary conversations. I was hoping you could share some of that. Obviously, nothing that's confidential or anything of that sort. But how are customers responding to the proposal, how are -- to the extent you spoke with many regulators, like how are they thinking about that? Just any color on those kind of preliminary reads would be helpful.

基思，你提到你們已經進行了一些對話，只是一些初步的對話。我希望你能分享一些。顯然，沒有任何機密資訊或類似的東西。但是客戶對此提議有何反應？就您與許多監管機構的交談而言，他們對此有何看法？任何關於這些初步閱讀的顏色都會有幫助。

Like with all due respect, the conversations have been direct with other railroad CEOs and two-way conversations, only one of us is here. I'm not going to represent the conversation. I can just say that they're encouraging and positive. When it comes to customers, John, do you want to comment?

恕我直言，這些對話都是與其他鐵路執行長直接進行的，而且是雙向對話，我們中只有一個人在這裡。我不會代表這次談話。我只能說他們令人鼓舞且積極。說到顧客，約翰，你想發表評論嗎？

Yes. So honestly, the phone has been pretty active on that front already. I'd say as much as trying to understand given that what we lived through over the past few years are leading up to this transaction, trying to get a read on our feeling around the likelihood of this and can it be done? I don't know. It feels like it's a little bit of a mixed bag.

是的。說實話，這款手機在這方面已經相當活躍了。我想說的是，鑑於過去幾年我們所經歷的一切導致了這筆交易，我們試圖理解我們對這筆交易可能性的感受，以及這筆交易能否完成？我不知道。感覺有點雜亂無章。

There is certainly the risk of operational performance and integration that I think is looming over everyone. And frankly, nobody knows that better than us coming out of some of the challenges we faced in the last couple of months in the southern part of our network.

我認為，營運績效和整合方面的風險確實存在，而且這種風險籠罩著所有人。坦白說，沒有人比我們更了解過去幾個月我們在網路南部面臨的一些挑戰。

And as Keith said, it's just a far grander scale and a much whole another level of risk that I think these customers are going to be concerned about or are going to want to really understand what that looks like in a tremendous amount of detail going into that. So look, we'll continue to canvas and make sure the customers are fully educated in terms of not only what we went through and what they should expect UP and NS need to deliver and produce to them through the process that we're going to go through with the STB.

正如基斯所說，這只是一個更宏大的規模和另一個層次的風險，我認為這些客戶會擔心，或者會想要真正了解其中的大量細節。所以，我們將繼續進行調查，確保客戶充分了解我們所經歷的一切，以及他們應該期望北方邦和南非國家鐵路透過我們與新加坡鐵路公司合作的流程向他們提供和生產什麼。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Keith, only because you referenced the probability earlier, would you hazard to put a probability on a deal getting done better or greater than -- better or lower than 50%? And then just secondarily, I think just outside of the merger topic, I just wanted to ask about the Gemini process and ramp up in particular. I think in many cases, that FRO exceeded our expectations thus far. Just curious how you think it's tracking relative to your earlier expectations?

基思，只是因為你之前提到了機率，你願意冒險將交易完成的機率定為高於或低於 50% 嗎？其次，我認為除了合併主題之外，我只想詢問有關 Gemini 流程和具體提升的問題。我認為在很多情況下，FRO 已經超出了我們目前的預期。只是好奇您認為它相對於您之前的預期有何進展？

I can say, February, March when we started to see the volumes coming on. Is it exceeded those vacations thus far? And John, you've already referenced some opportunities still -- the head, but how do you sort of envision that over the next two to three years?

我可以說，從二月、三月開始我們就開始看到交易量增加。到目前為止，這些假期是否已經超越了？約翰，您已經提到了一些機會——頭腦，但是您如何預見未來兩到三年內這些機會的發展？

Yes. I'll let John answer the question on Gemini. I want to make sure I got the question right, Steven, on the merger. Are you asking what my view is on the odds of it getting approved?

是的。我請約翰回答有關雙子座的問題。史蒂文，我想確保我正確回答了有關合併的問題。您是想問我對其獲得批准的可能性有何看法嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

I mean that answer depends on the concessions that are proposed and the concessions that are willing to be accepted. So it's hard to put odds at it. I'll just say this, they're going to be meaningful. They'll have to be meaningful to address the holistic impact of a potential in games scenario, there's no way to deny that. So it's not, again, just in isolation, UP and NS, it has to consider the potential end game.

我的意思是，答案取決於提出的讓步和願意接受的讓步。因此很難對此進行猜測。我只想說，它們將會很有意義。它們必須有意義才能解決遊戲場景中潛在的整體影響，這是無可否認的。因此，這不僅僅是孤立的北方邦和新斯科細亞省，它還必須考慮潛在的最終結果。

The rules required. We -- all the parties understand it. So more to come on that. We'll just have to see how this thing plays out. And rest assured, I'm kind of thinking about in history and memory the comment earlier a minute ago about the integration risk.

所需的規則。我們——各方都理解這一點。對此我們還有更多內容。我們只需看看事情會如何發展。請放心，我正在回顧歷史並回憶剛才關於整合風險的評論。

If I can remember, and I'm still working and I'm -- I mean, this is my 33rd, 34th year in the industry, but as a young operating officer, I lived through the SB UP combination, the two associated industry meltdowns. With that, I lived through the Conrail -- up. I can remember the complexities and the challenges that are created with those combinations. And I would just suggest if I'm still working, I'm a bit more seasoned than I used to be, but I'm got a lot of run left in me. There's like scenarios and situations in these large companies where they were, too.

如果我能記得的話，我還在工作——我的意思是，這是我在這個行業工作的第 33、34 年，但作為一名年輕的營運官，我經歷了 SB UP 合併，以及兩次相關的行業崩潰。就這樣，我度過了康雷爾鐵路公司——向上。我記得這些組合所帶來的複雜性和挑戰。我想說的是，如果我還在工作，我比以前更老練了，但我還有很多可以繼續工作的機會。這些大公司中也存在類似的場景和情況。

And they were people that were in entry-level jobs just like I was, and they live through the realities -- undeniable realities of these complex combinations and they're going to be asking those questions, too. Today, they're in positions perhaps like we are with more increased responsibility to their organizations. So the answers are truly going to matter to them.

他們和我一樣，都是從事初級工作的人，他們經歷過現實——這些複雜組合中不可否認的現實，他們也會問這些問題。今天，他們的職位可能和我們一樣，對組織負有更大的責任。所以答案對他們來說真的很重要。

And Steve, regarding Gemini, I'd say we're pleased with how it has started up so far. We've recently met and continue to meet with both partners they are very pleased with the service performance that we've been able to tag on to their vessel and ship performance. I would say the volumes have ramped up faster in Vancouver than I think they expected it, we expected, but it's been a good thing. And there's -- I would say we're still in the middle innings of the journey with them. So I'm quite pleased with that.

史蒂夫，關於雙子座，我想說我們對它目前的啟動感到滿意。我們最近與雙方進行了會面，並將繼續會面，他們對我們能夠將其附加到他們的船舶和船舶性能上的服務性能感到非常滿意。我想說溫哥華的銷售成長速度比他們預期的、我們預期的還要快，但這是一件好事。而且——我想說的是，我們與他們仍處於旅程的中期。所以我對此非常滿意。

And really, as you think about growth over the next 18, 24 months, we haven't really at the surface to the level. I think all the parties want to if you think about Lazaro, so I think there's still opportunity there that has maybe been weighed down by some of the tariff and trade talks. So we're still excited about that. And we got a capacity online now at St. John. So I think there's still some upside with the partners at that port.

事實上，當你考慮到未來 18 到 24 個月的成長時，我們還沒有真正達到表面的水平。如果你考慮拉扎羅，我認為各方都希望這樣做，所以我認為那裡仍然有機會，只是可能受到一些關稅和貿易談判的影響。所以我們對此仍然感到興奮。現在我們在聖約翰擁有線上容量。所以我認為與該港口的合作夥伴仍有一定的優勢。

And John, just to add, Steve, this is Mark. The dream we had is coming out of South Shore with just building service straight out of the facility, being able to go and penetrate into the Eastern markets, straight from Vancouver with Gemini, we've been able to do that. We've been able to build trains straight off of that port and go straight to destination overlay that with the new locomotives that we're adding to the 100 Series fleet in Canada, certainly upside and really just creates that quality service plan we need to give them and we are.

約翰，補充一下，史蒂夫，這是馬克。我們的夢想是走出南岸，直接從設施建立服務，能夠從溫哥華直接通過 Gemini 進入東部市場，我們已經做到了。我們已經能夠直接從該港口建造火車並直達目的地，與我們在加拿大 100 系列車隊中增加的新機車相結合，這無疑具有優勢，並且確實創造了我們需要為他們提供的優質服務計劃，而我們確實這樣做了。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Keith, I really appreciate the insight and time you're spending kind of walking through the puts and takes of the proposed merger here and providing your insight in your own experience. I guess one follow-up to a point you were making earlier in terms of gateway options. But if I recall, I think the official ruling from your own deal here from the STB, it talked about protecting competition and not necessarily competitors.

基思，我真的很感激你花時間和精力來詳細討論擬議合併的利弊，並根據你自己的經驗提供見解。我想就網關選項而言，對您之前提出的觀點進行一個跟進。但如果我沒記錯的話，我認為你們與新加坡旅遊局達成的協議中的官方裁決是討論保護競爭，而不一定是保護競爭對手。

So I wanted to, one, do you think that the Board would likely take a similar stance in this deal? Or has something changed? And then second, maybe talking about the ability to ensure existing gateways are still preserved. And if that wouldn't be the case based on the merger proposed and potentially both transcon mergers.

所以我想問，第一，您是否認為董事會可能會在這筆交易中採取類似的立場？或者有什麼改變了嗎？其次，也許要談論確保現有網關仍然保留的能力。如果根據提議的合併和潛在的跨大陸合併情況並非如此。

Again, I can't speak for the STB. I could imagine a world where some of those solutions are part of the considerations, but you mentioned a keyword. Under our consideration and under the rules that we are approved, the STB was governed by a standard that said you had to protect competition. That's not the case anymore. We don't exist anymore. There will never be another merger that just has to protect competition. They have to enhance competition. So when I hear that there's only 20 customers that go from two to one, and we have an answer.

再次聲明，我不能代表新加坡旅遊局發言。我可以想像一個世界，其中一些解決方案是考慮的一部分，但你提到了一個關鍵字。根據我們的考慮和批准的規則，STB 受一項標準的約束，該標準規定必須保護競爭。現在情況已經不再如此了。我們已經不存在了。永遠不會再發生僅僅為了保護競爭而進行的合併。他們必須加強競爭。因此，當我聽到只有 20 位客戶從兩位減少到一位時，我們就有了答案。

Then the next question I have is what does the answer do? Does it preserve? Or does it enhance? Because if it just reserves, it doesn't meet the public interest test it must enhance. That's a unique and undeniable material difference that these merger rules represent, they're untested.

那麼我的下一個問題是答案有什麼作用？它能保存嗎？或者說它有增強作用？因為如果只是保留，它就不符合必須加強的公共利益測試。這些合併規則所代表的獨特且不可否認的實質差異是未經檢驗的。

And rest assured, the STB will want to get this one right. Because by their own emission -- the industry, including UP on admission, this very well could trigger total industry consolidation. It leads to an end-game scenario where you have two duopolies across this nation. It has to get right. It has to be done right to serve the public interest.

請放心，新加坡旅遊局一定會把這件事做好。因為透過他們自己的排放——包括UP在內的行業，這很可能會引發整個產業的整合。這會導致最終的局面：全國將出現兩大壟斷企業。事情必須得辦好。必須正確地做這件事以符合公眾利益。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

丹尼爾·伊姆布羅，史蒂芬斯。

John, I want to follow up on actually the pricing back on the CPKC side. I think you talked about three headwinds in the quarter on fuel prices, the carbon tax and then mix. Any way to quantify those tents for RTM headwinds as we parse through 2Q and which of those will continue in the back half. And if we heard you right, something like core pricing is staying above that 3% to 4% range. I guess when should we think about that beginning to flow through the model more to the bottom line and maybe not being masked by some of these other headwinds?

約翰，我想跟進一下 CPKC 的定價情況。我認為您談到了本季的三大不利因素：燃料價格、碳稅以及其他因素。當我們分析第二季時，有沒有什麼方法可以量化 RTM 逆風的帳篷，以及哪些帳篷會在下半年繼續存在。如果我們沒聽錯的話，核心定價將保持在 3% 至 4% 的範圍之上。我想，我們應該什麼時候考慮讓它開始更多地流經模型並流向底線，而不被其他一些不利因素所掩蓋？

Flow through first quarter pretty well. It's yes, and just to give you a respective, fuel and the carbon tax, essentially 100% wipeout pricing. And mix was minus 4% is how it broke down. Frankly, just you saw the intermodal growth, the international intermodal growth. we saw combined with really strong bulk growth, and those average for RTM in those business units is slightly below the corporate average. So hence, the mix challenge.

第一季進展順利。是的，只是給你一個相應的燃料和碳稅，基本上是 100% 的消除定價。混合物分解後為 -4%。坦白說，正如您所看到的，聯運成長、國際聯運成長，加上非常強勁的散貨成長，這些業務部門的 RTM 平均值略低於企業平均水平。因此，混合挑戰就此誕生。

Looking forward, I think fuel, we expect to improve. So we'd see, I think, a better outcome there. We're going to continue to have the carbon tax headwind. And as I look to the second half year volumes, I think mix improved some, but it's probably still going to be a headwind because we are expecting a pretty big but back half of the year, too, with the grain, the potash and the coal. Hope that helps.

展望未來，我認為我們預計燃料將會改善。所以我認為我們會看到更好的結果。我們將繼續面臨碳稅的逆風。當我展望下半年的產量時，我認為產品結構有所改善，但可能仍將是一個阻力，因為我們預計下半年穀物、鉀肥和煤炭的產量將大幅下降。希望有幫助。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

So I'm sorry, just to clarify, Keith, are you saying that CPCN is now off the table? It was only a couple of years ago, CP tried to make the case for each of the term rails. It sounds like you're saying you're inclined that this is only a duopoly structure process and you're going to now lead the fight for concessions and detailing the risk to the regulators versus you jumping in the round and dancing with who's left. Is that kind of what you're seeing that the only realistic option on the table?

所以很抱歉，我只是想澄清一下，基思，你是說 CPCN 現在已不再考慮了嗎？就在幾年前，CP 曾嘗試為每個術語「軌道」進行辯護。聽起來，您傾向於認為這只是一個雙頭壟斷結構的過程，現在您將領導爭取讓步的鬥爭，並向監管機構詳細說明風險，而不是加入其中，與剩下的人一起跳舞。您所看到的這是目前唯一現實的選擇嗎？

And then I guess, Nadeem, just to clarify one thing you mentioned on the OR, right? You said the -- I just want to understand, given the impact to 2Q OR from the network issues, you mentioned kind of going into the 50s. I just want to understand, should we see an outsized historical shift from 2Q to 3Q, just given the network issues from 2Q?

然後我想，Nadeem，只是想澄清一下你在 OR 上提到的一件事，對嗎？您說——我只是想了解，考慮到網路問題對 2Q OR 的影響，您提到了進入 50 年代。我只是想了解一下，考慮到第二季的網路問題，我們是否應該看到從第二季到第三季的巨大歷史性轉變？

No, I mean, the OR wasn't greatly impacted in Q2 by the network issued by the systems integration, there was a $0.03 to $0.04 EPS, but didn't affect the OR significantly, Ken. So I would say that the year over year, you'll see probably the best OR improvement in Q3 relative to the other quarters. So giving you a lot of quarterly OR color there, Ken. But I'd just say continued improvement and then continued improvement in Q4 and sub-60 for the year.

不，我的意思是，OR 在第二季度並沒有受到系統整合產生的網路的很大影響，每股收益為 0.03 至 0.04 美元，但並沒有對 OR 產生顯著影響，Ken。因此我想說，與去年同期相比，你可能會看到第三季相對於其他季度的 OR 改善最好。因此，Ken，我會給你很多季度 OR 顏色。但我只想說，第四季將繼續改善，全年將保持在 60 以下。

Ken, the best way to answer your question is -- we're going to consider all scenarios except for one, and you figured out between the lines what that one is. At the end of the day, it's to make sure we create leverage this team and network to create the most value for our stakeholders and whatever definition allows us to meet that standard. We've got a fiduciary responsibility to consider it. And that's exactly what we'll do. We won't be confined by traditional.

肯，回答你的問題的最佳方式是——我們將考慮除一種情況之外的所有情況，而你已經從字裡行間猜出了那是什麼情況。歸根結底，這是為了確保我們利用這個團隊和網絡為我們的利害關係人創造最大的價值，無論何種定義都允許我們達到該標準。我們有信託責任來考慮這一點。這正是我們要做的。我們不會被傳統的束縛。

So maybe you expect the unexpected who knows. I don't know. I don't know what the facts are going to be. I just know that when they're revealed, we're going to understand them, and we're going to meet our fiduciary responsibility.

所以也許你會期待意想不到的事情，誰知道呢。我不知道。我不知道事實會如何。我只知道，當它們被揭露時，我們會理解它們，並且我們會履行我們的受託責任。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克（Ravi Shanker）。

If I can squeeze in a non-M&A question here. Apologies if I missed this. I think you mentioned MMX volumes were up 40% year-over-year and 20% sequentially. I don't think anything in transport is up 40% year over year. So can you just give us a little more color there, kind of what is this tariff related? Kind of is that any pull forward into and kind of great to see that the next couple of quarters?

如果我可以在這裡插入一個非併購問題。如果我錯過了這個，請見諒。我想您提到 MMX 交易量年增 40%，季增 20%。我認為運輸業的任何產品都不會比去年同期成長 40%。那麼，您能否向我們詳細介紹一下這方面的信息，這與關稅有什麼關係？這是否對接下來的幾季有什麼影響？

It's a really strong sales effort, Ravi. We're growing that product. It's truck like, it's fastest in the industry. It's a seamless middle Mexico to Chicago and up into Canada. And frankly, between our partnership with Schneider.

這確實是一個非常強大的銷售舉措，拉維。我們正在發展該產品。它就像卡車一樣，是業內最快的。這是一條從墨西哥中部到芝加哥再到加拿大的無縫連接之路。坦白說，我們與施耐德的合作關係。

And in others, we've just seen really strong and continue to see strong growth. I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've got a really sizable piece of automotive parts business that's ramping up. And now with the Americold facility, you're going to start to see our refer business ramp up on that product, too. So I expect this to directory to grow. And hopefully, pretty soon here, we're putting pressure on Mark for a second train start. That's it.

而在其他領域，我們已經看到了非常強勁的成長勢頭，並且將繼續保持強勁成長。我想我在準備好的發言中提到過，我們有一個規模相當大的汽車零件業務正在蓬勃發展。現在，透過 Americold 工廠，您也將開始看到我們該產品的建議業務量不斷增長。因此我希望這個目錄能夠成長。希望我們很快就能向馬克施加壓力，讓他啟動第二列火車。就是這樣。

Thank you. We have reached our allotted time for Q&A. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Keith Creel. Please go ahead.

謝謝。我們已經達到了問答的分配時間。現在我想將電話轉回給基斯·克里爾先生。請繼續。

Thank you. Listen, let me close where I started thinking for your time today. A lot of robust discussions, certainly more to come. In the meantime, the most important thing we're focused on with this team is executing our plan this year to meet and exceed our objectives. We've laid out guidance.

謝謝。聽著，讓我以今天開始思考的話題作為結尾。進行了很多深入的討論，肯定還會有更多。同時，我們團隊最關注的事情就是執行今年的計劃，以實現並超越我們的目標。我們已經制定了指導方針。

We fully intend and see a path to achieve that as it relates to the year. And as it relates to our multiyear plan, that's what we'll do. As well as stay abreast of all these current developments as they progress within the industry. Thanks very much. We look forward to sharing our results next quarter.

我們完全有意願並看到了實現這一目標的途徑。因為這與我們的多年計劃有關，所以這就是我們要做的。並隨時關注行業內所有當前的發展。非常感謝。我們期待下個季度分享我們的業績。

Thank you. And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。