好市多 (COST) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Costco Wholesale Corporation Fiscal Q1 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And please be advised that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們先生們，下午好，歡迎來到 Costco Wholesale Corporation 2023 財年第一季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音中。 （操作員說明）

And now at this time, I'll turn the call over to Costco's CFO, Richard Galanti. Richard, please go ahead.

現在這個時候，我會將電話轉給 Costco 的首席財務官 Richard Galanti。理查德，請繼續。

Thank you, Bo, and good afternoon to everyone. I will start by stating that these discussions will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events, results and/or performance to differ materially from those indicated by such statements. The risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those outlined in today's call as well as other risks identified from time to time in the company's public statements and reports filed with the SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and the company does not undertake to update these statements, except as required by law.

謝謝你，博，大家下午好。我首先聲明，這些討論將包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際事件、結果和/或表現與所示內容存在重大差異通過這樣的陳述。風險和不確定性包括但不限於今天的電話會議中概述的風險和不確定性，以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開聲明和報告中不時確定的其他風險。前瞻性陳述僅在作出之日發表，除法律要求外，公司不承諾更新這些陳述。

In today's press release, we reported operating results for the first quarter of fiscal '23, the 12 weeks ended this past November 20. Reported net income for the quarter was $1.364 billion or $3.07 per diluted share. That compared to $1.324 billion or $2.98 a share last year. This year's results included a charge of $93 million pretax or $0.15 per share, primarily related to downsizing our charter shipping activities and a tax benefit of $53 million or $0.12 per diluted share related to stock-based compensation. Last year's results included an asset write-off of $118 million pretax or $0.20 per diluted share and a tax benefit of $91 million or $0.21 a share related to stock-based compensation.

在今天的新聞稿中，我們報告了 23 財年第一季度的經營業績，即截至去年 11 月 20 日的 12 週。報告的本季度淨收入為 13.64 億美元或每股攤薄收益 3.07 美元。相比之下，去年為 13.24 億美元或每股 2.98 美元。今年的業績包括 9300 萬美元的稅前費用或每股 0.15 美元，主要與縮減我們的包機運輸活動有關，以及 5300 萬美元或與基於股票的補償相關的攤薄後每股 0.12 美元的稅收優惠。去年的業績包括 1.18 億美元的稅前資產註銷或攤薄後每股 0.20 美元以及與股票薪酬相關的 9100 萬美元或每股 0.21 美元的稅收優惠。

Additionally, the strength of the U.S. dollar resulted in our foreign company earnings translating into fewer U.S. dollars. With 25% to 30% of our earnings generally -- generated outside of the United States, this negatively impacted earnings by about $0.12 per share. In terms of sales, net sales for the first quarter increased 8.1% or $53.44 billion versus $49.42 billion reported last year. On a comparable sales basis during the first quarter, reported U.S. sales increased over the 12 weeks 9.3%, and excluding gas inflation and FX, 6.5%; Canada, 2.4%; reported, 8.3% increase, ex gas inflation and FX. Other International reported minus 3.1%; excluding gas inflation, FX, plus 9.1%. So you have all told, 6.6% reported for the company, and ex gas inflation and FX of 7.1%. E-commerce, by the way, was reported of a minus 3.7% and a minus 2%, excluding FX.

此外，美元的強勢導致我們外國公司的收入轉化為更少的美元。我們一般有 25% 到 30% 的收益來自美國以外，這對每股收益產生了約 0.12 美元的負面影響。在銷售額方面，第一季度淨銷售額增長 8.1% 或 534.4 億美元，而去年同期為 494.2 億美元。在第一季度的可比銷售額基礎上，報告的美國銷售額在過去 12 週內增長了 9.3%，不包括天然氣通脹和外匯，增長了 6.5%；加拿大，2.4%；據報導，增長 8.3%，不包括天然氣通脹和外匯。其他國際報告負 3.1%；不包括天然氣通脹、外匯，加上 9.1%。所以你們都告訴了，公司報告了 6.6%，不包括天然氣通脹和外匯 7.1%。順便說一句，據報導電子商務分別為負 3.7% 和負 2%，不包括外匯。

In terms of first quarter comp sales metrics, traffic or shopping frequency increased 3.9% worldwide and up 2.2% in the U.S. Our average transaction size was up 2.6% worldwide and 6.9% U.S. during the first quarter. And foreign currencies relative to the U.S. dollar negatively impacted sales by a little over 3%, while gasoline price inflation positively impacted sales by approximately 2.5%.

就第一季度的比較銷售指標而言，全球流量或購物頻率增長了 3.9%，美國增長了 2.2%。第一季度，我們的平均交易規模在全球增長了 2.6%，在美國增長了 6.9%。外幣兌美元匯率對銷售額產生了略高於 3% 的負面影響，而汽油價格上漲對銷售額產生了約 2.5% 的正面影響。

Moving down the income statement. Membership fee income reported in the quarter, membership fee income came in right at $1 billion. That's $54 million or 5.7% higher than last year's reported number of $946 million. Again, the relative weakness in foreign currencies relative to the U.S. dollar, excluding the impact of FX, we're assuming flat FX year-over-year, that $54 million number would have been increased by $32 million, and the membership on an adjusted basis would have been a little over 9% year-over-year on flat FX.

向下移動損益表。本季度報告的會員費收入，會員費收入恰好為 10 億美元。這比去年報告的 9.46 億美元增加了 5400 萬美元或 5.7%。同樣，外幣相對於美元的相對疲軟，排除外彙的影響，我們假設外匯同比持平，5400 萬美元的數字將增加 3200 萬美元，並且調整後的會員資格按固定匯率計算，同比增長略高於 9%。

In terms of renewal rates, at first quarter end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rates were 92.5% compared to 92.4% a quarter ago. And worldwide rate came in both at this quarter end and the previous quarter end, the same level at 90.4%. We ended first quarter with 66.9 million paying household members and 120.9 million cardholders, both up 7% versus last year, and recognize we added about 22 units over the course of that last year. So that was about just under 3% of that increase.

就續訂率而言，在第一季度末，我們的美國和加拿大續訂率為 92.5%，而一季度前為 92.4%。本季度末和上一季度末的全球增長率均為 90.4%。第一季度結束時，我們有 6690 萬付費家庭成員和 1.209 億持卡人，均比去年增長 7%，並認識到我們在去年增加了約 22 個單位。所以這大約是增長的不到 3%。

At Q1 end, paid executive memberships were right at $30 million, an increase of $904,000 during the 12 weeks or $75,000 a week during the first quarter. Executive members now represent 45% of our paid membership and just under 73% of worldwide sales.

在第一季度末，付費高管會員費為 3000 萬美元，在 12 週內增加了 904,000 美元，或者在第一季度增加了每週 75,000 美元。執行會員現在占我們付費會員的 45%，佔全球銷售額的近 73%。

Moving down the income statement to gross margin. Our reported gross margin in the first quarter was lower year-over-year by 45 basis points and lower by 21 basis points, excluding gas inflation. And as I'll explain in a minute, the 93% pretax charge, excluding that 93% -- $93 million charge we took in the quarter, gross margin, ex gas inflation, would have been only down 3 basis points.

將損益表下移至毛利率。我們報告的第一季度毛利率同比下降 45 個基點，下降 21 個基點，不包括天然氣通脹。正如我將在一分鐘內解釋的那樣，93% 的稅前費用，不包括我們在本季度收取的 93% - 9300 萬美元的費用，毛利率，不包括天然氣通脹，只會下降 3 個基點。

As I always ask you, jot down the following numbers, 2 columns and 6 line items. The first column is reported during the first quarter, a year-over-year delta change in basis points, and the second column, excluding gas inflation. On a core merchandise basis, we reported in the first quarter minus 52 basis points, and ex gas inflation, minus 31 basis points. Ancillary and other businesses, plus 23 on a reported basis and plus 30; 2% reward, minus 2 and minus 5; LIFO, plus 3 and plus 3; Other, that's the $93 million charge, minus 17 and minus 18. So all told, again, a reported basis was 45, ex gas inflation, 21.

正如我經常要求您的那樣，記下以下數字、2 列和 6 個行項目。第一列報告第一季度，基點的同比增量變化，第二列不包括天然氣通脹。在核心商品的基礎上，我們在第一季度報告了負 52 個基點，不包括天然氣通脹，負 31 個基點。輔助業務和其他業務，加上報告基礎上的 23 和 30； 2%獎勵，負2負5； LIFO，加 3 加 3；其他，這是 9300 萬美元的費用，負 17 和負 18。所以總的來說，報告的基礎是 45，不包括天然氣通脹，21。

So starting with the core. Core merchandise's contribution to gross margin on a reported basis was lower by 52 basis points year-over-year and lower by 31 basis points ex gas inflation. In terms of the core margin on their own sales, in the first quarter, our core or core gross margin, if you will, was also lower by 31 basis points, with food and sundries being up a little bit, offset by nonfoods and fresh foods being down. Fresh foods was down. As you know, for the last couple of years, it's been particularly strong, and it's come down a little bit. In addition, we are looking to hold prices on some of those price points despite inflated costs in some of the fresh food categories.

所以從核心開始。在報告的基礎上，核心商品對毛利率的貢獻同比下降了 52 個基點，扣除天然氣通脹後下降了 31 個基點。就他們自己銷售的核心利潤率而言，在第一季度，我們的核心或核心毛利率，如果你願意的話，也下降了 31 個基點，食品和雜貨略有上升，被非食品和新鮮食品所抵消食物下降。新鮮食品價格下降。如您所知，在過去的幾年中，它特別強勁，並且有所下降。此外，儘管某些新鮮食品類別的成本上漲，我們仍希望保持其中一些價格點的價格。

Ancillary and other business gross margins were higher by 23 and higher by 30 basis points ex gas inflation in the quarter, with gas business centers and travel up year-over-year, offset in part by e-com, food courts and optical. Our 2% reward, minus 2 basis points; reported, minus 5%, excluding gas inflation, implying higher sales penetration coming from our executive members.

本季度輔助和其他業務的毛利率上升了 23 個基點，不計入天然氣通脹則上升了 30 個基點，其中天然氣業務中心和旅遊業務同比增長，部分被電子商務、美食廣場和光學業務所抵消。我們的 2% 獎勵，減去 2 個基點；據報導，負 5%，不包括天然氣通脹，這意味著我們的執行成員的銷售滲透率更高。

LIFO, plus 3 basis points. We had a very small LIFO charge this year, but lapped a $14 million charge in Q1 last year. You recall last year, during the 4 quarters, we had LIFO charges in excess of $400 million pretax with a small amount that $14 million in the first quarter over $100 million in Q3 and over $200 million in Q4. So we'll see what inflation does this year. Hopefully, it will continue to its current trends in the right direction.

LIFO，加上 3 個基點。今年我們的 LIFO 費用非常少，但去年第一季度的費用為 1400 萬美元。你還記得去年，在 4 個季度中，我們的 LIFO 費用超過 4 億美元，第一季度有 1400 萬美元，第三季度超過 1 億美元，第四季度超過 2 億美元。所以我們看看今年通貨膨脹會發生什麼。希望它將繼續朝著正確的方向發展。

Other, the minus 17 and 18 basis points reported in ex gas inflation. This is the $93 million charge, as mentioned in the earnings release, mostly related to downsizing our charter shipping activities. Over a year after COVID began, you will recall that the supply chain challenges related to shortages of the containers and shipping delays greatly intensified with container freight and shipping rate skyrocketing. It was in Q4 of 2021 on our earnings call that we mentioned our initial leasing of 3 ships and several thousand containers to help mitigate these challenges. Later, we added 4 additional vessels and additional needed containers with commitments made for up to 3 years.

其他，除天然氣通脹報告的負 17 和 18 個基點。正如財報中所述，這是 9300 萬美元的費用，主要與縮減我們的包機運輸活動有關。在 COVID 開始一年多後，您會記得，隨著集裝箱運費和運費的飆升，與集裝箱短缺和運輸延誤相關的供應鏈挑戰大大加劇。在 2021 年第四季度的財報電話會議上，我們提到了最初租賃 3 艘船和數千個集裝箱以幫助緩解這些挑戰。後來，我們又增加了 4 艘船和額外需要的集裝箱，並承諾提供長達 3 年的服務。

Our objectives at the time were twofold: first, to increase the ability for more timely shipping and arrival of overseas merchandise. This allowed us to better stay in stock and drive sales; and second, to reduce some of the skyrocketing shipping and associated container costs. We achieved those objectives for a period of time. Over the course of a year, 1.5 years, we controlled the shipping and delivery of nearly 50,000 containers, many that would have been greatly delayed and at an estimated savings as compared to the then current shipping container costs of somewhere between $1,000 and $2,000 per container. That, of course, fluctuated. Now with a dramatic improvement in shipping times and much lower shipping and container costs, it made sense to downsize our commitment and lower prices for our members.

我們當時的目標有兩個：第一，提高海外商品更及時的運輸和到達能力。這使我們能夠更好地保持庫存並推動銷售；其次，減少一些飛漲的運輸和相關的集裝箱成本。我們在一段時間內實現了這些目標。在一年的時間裡，即 1.5 年，我們控制了近 50,000 個集裝箱的運輸和交付，其中許多本來會被大大延遲，並且與當時每個集裝箱 1,000 到 2,000 美元之間的集裝箱成本相比，估計可以節省.當然，這是波動的。現在，隨著運輸時間的顯著改善以及運輸和集裝箱成本的大幅降低，減少我們的承諾並為我們的會員降低價格是有意義的。

Moving on to SG&A. Our reported SG&A in the first quarter was lower or better year-over-year by 35 basis points, coming in at a 9.20% compared to a year ago of 9.55%. And that plus 35 basis point improvement would be plus 13 basis point improvement, excluding gas inflation.

轉到 SG&A。我們報告的第一季度 SG&A 同比下降或好於 35 個基點，為 9.20%，而去年同期為 9.55%。加上 35 個基點的改善將是 13 個基點的改善，不包括天然氣通脹。

Again, writing down 6 line items and 2 columns. First column being reported, second ex gas inflation. During the first quarter, our core operations was lower or better by 8 basis points, plus 8 then; without gas inflation, minus 9; central, 0 and minus 3; stock compensation, plus 3 and plus 1; preopening, 0 and 0; Other, plus 24 and plus 24; for a total first column reported -- year-over-year reported SG&A plus 35 or lower by 35 basis points and ex gas inflation lower by 13.

同樣，寫下 6 個行項目和 2 個列。報告的第一列，第二列除氣體膨脹。第一季度，我們的核心業務降低或提高了 8 個基點，然後再加上 8 個基點；沒有充氣，-9；中央，0 和負 3；股票補償，加 3 和加 1；開市前, 0 和 0;其他，加24加24；對於報告的第一列總數——同比報告的 SG&A 加上 35 或更低 35 個基點，以及 ex gas 通貨膨脹率降低 13。

Now going through those numbers, the core operations component of SG&A was again lower by 8 basis points reported, but higher by 9, excluding impact of gas inflation. These results include 3 sets of wage increases that were done in the past year plus as well as a little slower sales results in Q1 as compared to the prior quarter. Still increases, but a little lower than the prior quarter.

現在通過這些數字，報告的 SG&A 的核心運營部分再次降低了 8 個基點，但提高了 9 個基點，不包括天然氣通脹的影響。這些結果包括去年完成的 3 組工資增長以及與上一季度相比第一季度略有放緩的銷售結果。仍然增加，但略低於上一季度。

Central was flat or 0 and higher by 3, ex gas inflation. Stock comp, again, a little lower number in stock comp as a percent, so it came down, improved a little bit. Preopening, no impact. And the other, the 24 basis points you recall last year in Q1, this consisted of an asset write-off totaling $118 million pretax, which impacted the SG&A line last year.

中央持平或 0，高出 3，不包括天然氣通脹。股票補償，再次，股票補償的百分比略低，所以它下降了，有所改善。開盤前，沒有影響。另一方面，你記得去年第一季度的 24 個基點，這包括總計 1.18 億美元的稅前資產註銷，這影響了去年的 SG&A 項目。

Below the operating income line, interest expense was $34 million this year, down $5 million or down from $39 million last year. And interest income and other for the quarter was higher by 11% year-over-year, $53 million versus $42 million a year ago. Interest income was higher year-over-year, offset by unfavorable FX. Overall, reported pretax income in the quarter was up 4%, coming in at $1.77 billion, compared to $1.696 billion a year ago. And excluding the charges described earlier in both years, pretax income was up around 3%.

在營業收入線以下，今年的利息支出為 3400 萬美元，比去年的 3900 萬美元減少了 500 萬美元。本季度的利息收入和其他收入同比增長 11%，為 5300 萬美元，而去年同期為 4200 萬美元。利息收入同比增加，被不利的外匯所抵消。總體而言，本季度報告的稅前收入增長了 4%，達到 17.7 億美元，而一年前為 16.96 億美元。不包括前文所述的費用，稅前收入增長了約 3%。

In terms of income taxes, our tax rate in Q1 was 23.0% compared to 20.7% of Q1 last year, so a little higher this year. Both years' tax rates benefited from the tax treatment of stock-based compensation, as mentioned earlier. The fiscal '23 effective tax rate, excluding these discrete items -- this discrete item, is currently projected to be between 26% and 27%.

在所得稅方面，我們第一季度的稅率為 23.0%，而去年第一季度為 20.7%，今年略高。如前所述，這兩年的稅率都受益於股票薪酬的稅收處理。不包括這些離散項目的 23 財年有效稅率——這個離散項目，目前預計在 26% 到 27% 之間。

A few other items of note. In terms of warehouse expansion, we plan to open a net of 24 units this year, 27 openings, including 3 relocations, so a net of 24. In the first quarter, the net of that 24 included 7. We planned 3 more in Q2, 4 in Q3 and 10 in Q4. In the first quarter, we opened, as I mentioned, 7 net new warehouses, 4 were in the U.S. and 1 each was in Korea, our first in New Zealand and our first in Sweden. Additionally, last week, we opened another building in the U.S. And just yesterday, we opened our 14th location in Australia, our second on the country's West Coast in or near Perth. In fiscal '23, again, 27 total new openings, including 3 locations for a net of 24. Of the net 24, it's made up of 15 in the U.S. and 9 and Other International, including our third and fourth locations in China. Regarding CapEx. In the first quarter, CapEx was approximately $1.06 billion. And our estimate for the entire fiscal year is CapEx of somewhere in the $3.8 billion to $4.0 billion range.

其他一些注意事項。擴倉方面，我們今年計劃淨開24個，開27個，包括3個搬遷，所以淨開24個。第一季度，淨開24個，其中7個。我們計劃在第二季度再開3個，第三季度有 4 個，第四季度有 10 個。正如我所提到的，在第一季度，我們新開了 7 個淨倉庫，其中 4 個在美國，1 個在韓國，第一個在新西蘭，第一個在瑞典。此外，上週，我們在美國開設了另一座大樓。就在昨天，我們在澳大利亞開設了第 14 家分店，這是我們在該國西海岸珀斯或附近開設的第二家分店。在 23 財年，共有 27 個新開業地點，包括 3 個地點，淨數量為 24 個。在淨 24 個地點中，美國有 15 個，其他國際有 9 個，包括我們在中國的第三和第四個地點。關於資本支出。第一季度，資本支出約為 10.6 億美元。我們對整個財政年度的估計是資本支出在 38 億至 40 億美元之間。

Moving to e-commerce. E-commerce, as we mentioned in the press release, on a reported basis was -- for the quarter, year-over-year sales were minus 3.7 and minus 2, ex FX. Including sales -- what we don't include in this number is our sales through like same-day delivery for fresh food with our partners like Instacart, which we don't include those, and they are fulfilled in our warehouse. Our e-com comps, ex FX, would have been if we included it in the positive low single digits.

轉向電子商務。正如我們在新聞稿中提到的，電子商務在報告的基礎上是——本季度的同比銷售額分別為負 3.7 和負 2，不包括外匯。包括銷售額——我們不包括在這個數字中的是我們通過與我們的合作夥伴（如 Instacart）進行新鮮食品的當天送貨的銷售額，我們不包括這些，它們是在我們的倉庫中完成的。如果我們將其包含在正的低個位數中，我們的電子商務補償（ex FX）就會是。

Stronger departments in terms of year-over-year percentage increases were tickets and gift cards, tires, candy and health and beauty aids. The largest e-com merchandise department majors, which includes consumer electronics and appliances, which represents over 40 -- close to 40% to 50% of our -- over 40% of our e-com volume was down in the high single digits. Subsequent to quarter end, we did have our 2 biggest e-com selling days in our company history, both on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

同比增幅較大的部門是門票和禮品卡、輪胎、糖果以及健康和美容用品。最大的電子商務商品部門專業，包括消費電子產品和電器，占我們的 40 多個 - 接近我們的 40% 到 50% - 我們超過 40% 的電子商務數量下降了高個位數。在季度末之後，我們確實迎來了公司歷史上最大的 2 個電子商務銷售日，分別是黑色星期五和網絡星期一。

Now a few comments regarding inflation. Recall, we've seen some minor improvements in a few areas. Hopefully, continuing the comment I made last quarter's earnings call, a little light at the end of the tunnel, but it's still little. Recall last quarter and fourth quarter, we estimated that year-over-year price inflation was about 8%. In the first quarter, we estimate the equivalent year-over-year inflation number in the range of 6% to 7%.

現在就通貨膨脹發表一些評論。回想一下，我們在幾個方面看到了一些小的改進。希望繼續我在上個季度的財報電話會議上發表的評論，隧道盡頭有點亮，但仍然很少。回顧上一季度和第四季度，我們估計同比價格通脹約為 8%。在第一季度，我們估計相應的同比通脹率在 6% 至 7% 的範圍內。

Food and sundries is still up more than nonfoods, but overall, a little better level than a quarter ago for the company. And commodity costs are mostly coming down, whether it's corn flour, sugar and butter or even some things like steel. A few things are up, but overall, we're seeing a little bit of a trend, but we'll keep you posted.

食品和雜貨的漲幅仍高於非食品，但總體而言，公司的水平比一個季度前好一些。大宗商品成本大部分都在下降，無論是玉米粉、糖和黃油，還是鋼鐵之類的東西。有一些事情發生了，但總的來說，我們看到了一些趨勢，但我們會及時通知您。

Switching over to inventory levels. Recall that our total inventory in both -- at the end of Q3 and at the end of Q4 on a year-over-year basis were up 26% year-over-year. I'm happy to report that good progress was made during the first quarter of this fiscal year. Our increase as of Q1 end dropped to a 10% year-over-year increase, largely driven by an estimated 6% to 7% inflation and about just under 2% year-over-year unit growth. So inventories, while we still have some pockets of a little over inventory, overall, we feel pretty good about it.

切換到庫存水平。回想一下，我們在第三季度末和第四季度末的總庫存同比增長了 26%。我很高興地報告本財年第一季度取得了良好進展。截至第一季度末，我們的增幅下降至同比增幅 10%，這主要是受估計 6% 至 7% 的通貨膨脹率和略低於 2% 的同比單位增長率推動。所以庫存，雖然我們仍然有一些庫存有點過剩，但總的來說，我們對此感覺很好。

As a reminder, in terms of upcoming releases, we will announce our December sales results for the 5 weeks ending Sunday, January 1 on Thursday, January 5, after the market closes.

提醒一下，就即將發布的產品而言，我們將在 1 月 5 日星期四收市後公佈截至 1 月 1 日星期日的 5 週的 12 月銷售結果。

With that, I will open it up to Q&A and turn it back over to Bo. Thank you.

有了這個，我將打開它進行問答，然後將其轉回給 Bo。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question this afternoon from Simeon Gutman at Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）今天下午我們將從摩根士丹利的 Simeon Gutman 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Richard, I want to start with the short-term question. November, the slowdown in the stacks, is there anything tip of the iceberg there, macro merchandising? Is there something obvious? I mean you were living in pretty rarefied air, but curious if there's anything notable.

理查德，我想從短期問題開始。 11 月，堆棧的放緩，是否有冰山一角，宏觀營銷？有什麼明顯的嗎？我的意思是你生活在相當稀薄的空氣中，但好奇是否有什麼值得注意的地方。

No, I think the biggest thing, as I've said a couple of times in a quaint way, it rains on all of us during these tougher times, particularly with bigger ticket discretionary items. We're comparing against some huge increases a year ago, frankly, over the last 2 or 3 years, as you know. And that's where we've seen some of the slowdown. As I mentioned, e-com consumer electronics and appliances, as I mentioned, was down high singles. I think in line was also down some amount. So that's where a big chunk of it is. When we look at food and sundries, that actually tends to be relatively strong for us. So overall, I think it's impacting us a little bit with what's going on out there. I think it is a combination of compared to very strong stuff a year ago as well as the fact that big-ticket discretionary has a little bit of weakness.

不，我認為最重要的是，正如我以一種古怪的方式說過幾次的那樣，在這些艱難時期，我們所有人都在下雨，尤其是對於更大的可自由支配的物品。正如你所知，我們正在與一年前的一些巨大增長進行比較，坦率地說，在過去的 2 或 3 年裡。這就是我們看到一些放緩的地方。正如我所提到的，電子商務消費電子產品和電器，正如我所提到的，是高單價。我認為排隊也下降了一些。所以這就是其中很大一部分。當我們看食物和雜物時，實際上對我們來說往往是相對強烈的。所以總的來說，我認為這對我們正在發生的事情有一點影響。我認為這是與一年前非常強勁的東西相比以及高價自由裁量權有一點弱點這一事實的結合。

Okay. And maybe just a 2-part follow-up. One is just related to that answer. Does those 2 couple of days, I don't know if you can judge enough from it, does it bring you back to some type of trend line? Or it sounds like your tone is there's still some pressure? And then the real follow-up is on gas gross profits. If you just think about the movement of the lap throughout this fiscal year, does it progressively get harder through the year in terms of the lap? And then can you highlight to us which quarter has the highest cents per gallon lap throughout the rest of the year?

好的。也許只是一個由兩部分組成的後續行動。一個與那個答案有關。那兩天，我不知道你是否能從中做出足夠的判斷，它是否讓你回到某種趨勢線？或者聽起來你的語氣還是有些壓力？然後真正的後續行動是天然氣毛利潤。如果你只考慮整個財政年度的單圈運動，就圈數而言，這一年是否會逐漸變難？然後你能向我們強調在今年餘下的時間裡哪個季度每加侖圈的美分最高嗎？

Yes. I have a couple of people in the room smiling. Of course, I can't tell you all that. But at the end of the day, first of all, if you look at our November reported numbers, the fact that those 2 dates, those 2 high dates on e-com were in the last week. Keep in mind, e-com is still a little under 10% of our total company, but that helped a little bit relative to e-com in the last 4 weeks that we reported. But overall, look, we don't know what kind of trend it means. We feel pretty good about what we're doing in terms of driving sales. And as I mentioned, the food and sundries, as we get past big-ticket discretionary purchases for the holidays, for Christmas and what have you, you'll have a higher penetration of some other things as well.

是的。房間裡有幾個人在微笑。當然，我不能告訴你所有這些。但歸根結底，首先，如果你看一下我們 11 月份報告的數字，事實上這 2 個日期，即電子商務上的 2 個高日期是在上週。請記住，電子商務仍略低於我們公司總數的 10%，但這在我們報告的過去 4 週內相對於電子商務有所幫助。但總的來說，看，我們不知道這意味著什麼樣的趨勢。我們對我們在推動銷售方面所做的工作感到非常滿意。正如我提到的，食品和雜貨，隨著我們過去為假期、聖誕節和你有的東西購買大件商品，你也會對其他一些東西有更高的滲透率。

As it relates to gas, for several quarters now, even beyond a year ago, we talked about the gas profitability for us and we believe our competitors -- other big chains of gas stations have made more in gas. And certainly, that's helped us use some of that to continue to hold prices where we can on some things.

至於天然氣，現在幾個季度，甚至超過一年前，我們都在談論天然氣的盈利能力，我們相信我們的競爭對手——其他大型連鎖加油站在天然氣方面賺得更多。當然，這幫助我們利用其中的一些來繼續保持我們可以在某些事情上的價格。

Who knows what the new normal is? What we know is that not only is gas more profitable than it has been in the past. And like I said the same thing a year ago, will that change at some point? Maybe. We don't know. So right now, it's good. And by the way, as we've mentioned a couple of times, we've seen strong gallon sales, and we're still taking market share. We -- when the U.S. gallon sales are generally close to flat, we're up in the 10% to 15% range in gallons. So we're driving people into the parking lot. And the fact that gallons of gas are profitable, that there's just a little bit more for us as well. So that's helped us. There's always things that are going to help us, and there's always going to be puts and takes.

誰知道新常態是什麼？我們所知道的是，天然氣不僅比過去更有利可圖。就像我一年前說的一樣，這會在某個時候改變嗎？也許。我們不知道。所以現在，這很好。順便說一句，正如我們多次提到的那樣，我們看到了強勁的加侖銷量，而且我們仍在佔據市場份額。我們——當美國加侖銷量基本持平時，我們的加侖銷量上漲了 10% 到 15%。所以我們要開車送人到停車場。事實上，加侖汽油是有利可圖的，這對我們來說也只是一點點。所以這對我們有幫助。總有一些事情會幫助我們，而且總是會有所取捨。

We go next now to Chuck Grom at Gordon Haskett.

接下來我們去戈登·哈斯克特的查克·格羅姆。

My question is on the LIFO charge. It looks like if it's a few basis points of a hit, that would back into about $30 million to $40 million. And I'm curious, I know you don't provide guidance, but knowing what you know now and if inflation holds at that, say, 6% level, would that be a good proxy for the charge, at least over the next couple of quarters?

我的問題是關於後進先出法的收費。看起來如果它是一個命中的幾個基點，那將回到大約 3000 萬到 4000 萬美元。我很好奇，我知道你沒有提供指導，但知道你現在知道的，如果通貨膨脹率保持在那個水平，比如 6%，這是否可以很好地代表收費，至少在接下來的幾個宿舍？

Well, I think, yes, LIFO was a slight pickup just because the dollar amount was less than the $14 million last year in the quarter. It's very slight. So if that continues, that would be good, and that would bode well. And you'd have -- I'm guessing you'd have a lot lower charge than $423 million, recognizing the big pickup was in Q3. The big hit was in Q3 and 4 when we saw the beginning of inflation rising.

好吧，我認為，是的，後進先出法略有回升，只是因為該季度的美元金額低於去年的 1400 萬美元。這是非常輕微的。因此，如果這種情況繼續下去，那將是一件好事，那將是個好兆頭。而且你會 - 我猜你的費用會比 4.23 億美元低很多，因為第三季度出現了大筆提款。最大的打擊發生在第三季度和第四季度，當時我們看到通脹開始上升。

If inflation didn't go down, but it just stayed the same, in theory, you'd have no big charge. You'd have no additional charge. If it starts to go down from its peaks, that will have -- there'll be some LIFO income. Now mind you, some of that will be used for pricing as well. I mean -- well, you know us.

如果通貨膨脹沒有下降，只是保持不變，理論上，你不會有太大的負擔。您無需支付額外費用。如果它開始從峰值下降，那將會有一些後進先出的收入。請注意，其中一些也將用於定價。我的意思是——好吧，你了解我們。

Yes. Okay. So what would you do to have the absolute dollar amount for the LIFO charge in the quarter for us?

是的。好的。那麼，您將如何獲得本季度 LIFO 費用的絕對美元金額？

Yes. It was less than $1 million.

是的。它不到 100 萬美元。

Less than $1 million. Okay. Great. And then on the ancillary line, you've had real good success there in back-to-back quarters and you outlined gas profitability, e-com through court. Is there one that's been more outsized over the past couple of quarters that maybe we could think about over the next few quarters? Because it's been a nice improvement.

不到 100 萬美元。好的。偉大的。然後在輔助線上，你在背靠背的季度裡取得了真正的成功，你概述了天然氣的盈利能力，通過法庭的電子商務。在過去的幾個季度中，是否有一個規模更大，也許我們可以在接下來的幾個季度中考慮？因為這是一個很好的改進。

Well, look, gas is just the sheer size of our gasoline business. It's been the biggest piece of that line for a few years. We have a -- it's a $30-plus billion -- on our $220-whatever billion last year we did in sales, I think a little over $30 billion was gas. So that's the big kahuna among all that stuff.

好吧，看，天然氣只是我們汽油業務的絕對規模。幾年來，它一直是該系列中最大的一塊。我們有一個 - 這是 30 多億美元 - 在我們去年的 220 億美元銷售額中，不管我們去年在銷售額上做了什麼，我認為超過 300 億美元是天然氣。這就是所有這些東西中的大秘密。

We go next now to Michael Lasser of UBS.

接下來我們請到瑞銀集團的 Michael Lasser。

Richard, between the 31 basis point core-on-core gross margin discussion -- decrease in core-on-core gross margin, the discussion around giving up some shipping capacity to have a better price for your member, is the mindset of Costco right now, as the economy enters a more difficult economic period, Costco is going to be stepping up price investments in order to gain market share?

理查德，在 31 個基點的核心對核心毛利率討論之間——核心對核心毛利率下降，圍繞放棄一些運力為您的會員提供更好價格的討論，是 Costco 正確的心態現在，隨著經濟進入更加困難的經濟時期，Costco要加大價格投入以搶占市場份額？

I think we continue just to remain competitive. You've known us long enough. When asked who's our toughest competitor, we look in the mirror, we say it's us. So I think that as we drive market share part -- we believe that part of it at least is due to the fact that we've continued to be very competitive. And so I don't know if there's any change in that. We -- notwithstanding where our numbers come out, we're always trying to push more into lowering the prices or keeping the price increases going not as high as they could have been. I think fresh foods is a good example of that of late, where, again, we've held the price points on certain items despite inflated costs, mostly in the protein area and a little bit in the bakery area.

我認為我們繼續只是為了保持競爭力。你認識我們夠久了。當被問及誰是我們最強勁的競爭對手時，我們照照鏡子，我們說是我們自己。所以我認為，當我們推動市場份額的一部分時——我們相信這至少部分是由於我們繼續保持非常有競爭力的事實。所以我不知道這是否有任何變化。我們——不管我們的數字在哪裡，我們總是在努力推動更多地降低價格或保持價格上漲不至於本來可以達到的那麼高。我認為新鮮食品是最近的一個很好的例子，儘管成本高漲，但我們仍然保持某些商品的價格點，主要是在蛋白質領域和麵包店領域。

And Richard, you've long talked about, the Costco model is driven, first and foremost, by [spend] and the need to drive at least the mid-single-digit comp in order for the other parts of the P&L to work. So is the economy is entering a softer period where discretionary sales are going to be a little weaker and Costco's overall sales are going to be a little softer. Should we be modeling and prognosticating just a lower overall earnings growth for Costco during this time as when we go to these factors?

理查德，你一直在談論，Costco 模型首先是由 [spend] 驅動的，並且需要至少驅動中個位數的 comp，以便 P&L 的其他部分起作用。因此，經濟正在進入一個疲軟時期，可自由支配的銷售將略微疲軟，而 Costco 的整體銷售額將略微疲軟。當我們考慮這些因素時，我們是否應該在這段時間建模和預測 Costco 的整體收益增長較低？

Well, good news is that's your job to model it. Look, at the end of the day, I think that the comment I made about big-ticket discretionary, while we sell -- big-ticket discretionary includes furniture, which we sell lawn and garden, patio, too, that's not right now at the holiday season necessarily.

好吧，好消息是你的工作就是為它建模。看，歸根結底，我認為我對大價自由裁量權的評論，而我們銷售 - 大價自由裁量權包括家具，我們也出售草坪和花園，庭院，現在不在假期必然。

But that being said, there is a higher proportion of big-ticket discretionary right now. And we're blessed in the sense that a big chunk of our business is fresh foods and food and sundries, which people have to eat. And as I mentioned, that has been strong throughout this. So I think overall, we'll probably still look at it in a positively relatively aggressive standpoint.

但話雖這麼說，現在大額可自由支配的比例更高。從某種意義上說，我們很幸運，因為我們的大部分業務是人們必須吃的新鮮食品、食品和雜貨。正如我所提到的，這在整個過程中都很強勁。所以我認為總的來說，我們可能仍然會以積極相對激進的立場來看待它。

Ultimately, when you talk about top line sales and if they're a little lower, what do we need? I think this question historically has always been asked, what do we need to have SG&A not go up as a percent of sales? And the view is -- and this is preinflation thoughts. The view is always you need something -- our best guess view is somewhere in the 4% to 5% comp range. If it falls below that, that will make SG&A a little bit of a challenge.

最終，當您談論頂線銷售額時，如果它們稍微低一點，我們需要什麼？我認為歷史上一直有人問這個問題，我們需要什麼才能讓 SG&A 不上升佔銷售額的百分比？觀點是——這是通脹前的想法。觀點總是你需要一些東西——我們最好的猜測觀點是在 4% 到 5% 的補償範圍內。如果它低於該水平，那將使 SG&A 成為一個挑戰。

That being said, we're pretty pragmatic, and we know how to use our margin as well. So I think overall, we'll continue to work entirely to drive top line sales and look at it through the long term. And we're not in any big way cutting back orders at this juncture. Where we see some challenges with big-ticket discretionary, does it come down a little? I think the keyword there is a little. And are we feeling very good about some of our business now despite what's going on out there? We're blessed that -- we think, again, I think as evidenced by gas and anything, the food and sundries business, we're blessed by taking market share still. And I think that's evidenced in our memberships and...

也就是說，我們非常務實，我們也知道如何使用我們的保證金。所以我認為總的來說，我們將繼續全力推動頂線銷售，並從長遠來看。在這個關頭，我們並沒有大幅削減訂單。在我們看到高價可自由支配的一些挑戰的地方，它會有所下降嗎？我認為關鍵字有一點。儘管外面發生了什麼，我們現在對我們的一些業務感覺很好嗎？我們很幸運——我們再次認為，正如天然氣和任何食品和雜貨業務所證明的那樣，我們仍然很幸運地佔據了市場份額。我認為這在我們的會員資格和...

Your answer was a lot better than my questions.

你的回答比我的問題好多了。

We go next now to Rupesh Parikh at Oppenheimer.

接下來我們去奧本海默的 Rupesh Parikh。

So just on the core-on-core decline of 31 basis points, I was hoping you provide more color just in terms of what's driving that decline in nonfoods category. And then just related to the pressure on fresh foods. I know -- I think you've now lapped some of the -- last year, I think fresh foods is also a headwind. So when do we lap some of the -- I guess, some of the efficiencies that you gained during the pandemic? Because I know you've given it back in recent quarters. So I'm trying to get a sense of when that pressure point could go away.

因此，就核心下降 31 個基點而言，我希望你能提供更多顏色來說明是什麼推動了非食品類別的下降。然後只是與新鮮食品的壓力有關。我知道——我想你現在已經解決了一些問題——去年，我認為新鮮食品也是一個不利因素。那麼，我們什麼時候可以完成一些——我想，你在大流行期間獲得的一些效率？因為我知道你最近幾個季度已經把它還給我們了。所以我試圖弄清楚那個壓力點什麼時候可以消失。

I don't know exactly. I mean if we're 3 quarters of a year into it, I think if I recall, over the last 2 or 3 quarters, we've talked about like fresh being that way and probably exacerbated a little right now with the fact that we're trying to hold prices on some things that we think that, that's driving our sales. Beyond that -- I forgot the first part of the question now.

我不清楚。我的意思是，如果我們有 3 個季度進入它，我想如果我記得，在過去的 2 或 3 個季度中，我們已經談論過像新鮮的那樣並且現在可能會因為我們的事實而加劇一點我們試圖對一些我們認為會推動我們銷售的東西保持價格。除此之外——我現在忘記了問題的第一部分。

Just on nonfood, any more color...

就非食品而言，任何更多的顏色......

Oh, yes. I think that, yes, fundamentally -- first of all, in terms of overall, it's fundamentally fresh and then some nonfoods. Some of that has to do with some of the big-ticket things. If you've been online and saw some things we did during not just the week of Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, but we did some -- anywhere from $100 to $500 off on, I think, $500 cash card, if you bought $3,000 or more of these items. And so we're getting rid of -- some of the reason that 26% year-over-year inventory increase went to 10% was we got rid of some of the stuff that we -- some things that we had deep freeze and some things that we had delayed shipping during the supply chain challenge.

哦是的。我認為，是的，從根本上說——首先，就整體而言，它基本上是新鮮的，然後是一些非食品。其中一些與一些大件事情有關。如果您在網上看到我們不僅在感恩節和網絡星期一的那一周做了一些事情，而且我們做了一些 - 我認為，如果您購買了 3,000 美元或更多，則可以在 500 美元的現金卡上享受 100 美元到 500 美元的折扣這些項目。因此，我們正在擺脫——26% 的庫存同比增長達到 10% 的部分原因是我們擺脫了一些我們——一些我們深度冷凍的東西，還有一些我們在供應鏈挑戰期間延遲發貨的東西。

So we did take some more markdowns than normal as you would expect to help get rid of that. And hopefully, that's not a pressure point going forward. Certainly, I don't think it will be as much. And again, there are so many moving parts to this equation. I wish it was as easy as each basis point we could explain. We try to give you the rounded numbers. But overall, again, I get back to we feel good about how we're doing competitively.

因此，我們確實採取了比平時更多的降價促銷活動，以幫助擺脫這種情況。希望這不是前進的壓力點。當然，我認為不會那麼多。再一次，這個方程式有很多變化的部分。我希望它像我們可以解釋的每個基點一樣簡單。我們盡量給你四捨五入的數字。但總的來說，我再次回到我們對我們在競爭中的表現感到滿意。

And we certainly understand that big-ticket discretionary things have shown a little weakness, in part, because of our strength from a year ago, and in part, it's got to be part of the economy. And the good news is we have big chunks of our business that are fresh foods, food and sundries, health and beauty aids, gas, all those types of things. And even other things like that's small, but travel has come back really strong from a really weak place a couple of years ago.

我們當然明白，大件可自由支配的東西已經表現出一點疲軟，部分原因是我們一年前的實力，部分原因是它必須成為經濟的一部分。好消息是，我們的大部分業務都是新鮮食品、食品和雜貨、健康和美容用品、天然氣，以及所有這些類型的東西。甚至其他類似的事情也很小，但幾年前旅行從一個非常薄弱的地方強勢回歸。

Great. And then maybe just one additional question just on the membership fee hike. If we are in a weaker economic backdrop next year, does that at all impact how you guys are thinking about the timing of the membership fee hike?

偉大的。然後可能只是關於會員費上漲的另一個問題。如果明年我們處於疲軟的經濟背景下，這是否會影響你們對會員費上調時間的看法？

Well, it certainly goes into the thought process. We're still not even to the average of the last 3 increases in terms of timing between the last one and the next one. What we've said again, and I'll say again, is that our view is all the parameters, as it relates to member loyalty and value proposition that we've improved to our member, we have no problem thinking about doing it and doing it ultimately. So it's a question of when, not if. But we feel that we're in a very strong competitive position right now. And if we have to wait a few months or several months, that's fine. And I'll be purposely coy on when that might be.

好吧，它肯定會進入思考過程。就上一次和下一次之間的時間間隔而言，我們甚至還沒有達到最近 3 次增長的平均值。我們再說一遍，我再說一遍，我們的觀點是所有參數，因為它與會員忠誠度和我們為會員改進的價值主張有關，我們考慮這樣做沒有問題並且最終做到這一點。所以這是一個什麼時候的問題，而不是是否。但我們覺得我們現在處於非常強大的競爭地位。如果我們必須等待幾個月或幾個月，那也沒關係。我會故意含糊其辭。

We go next now to Paul Lejuez at Citi.

接下來我們去花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

It's Brandon Cheatham on for Paul. First one, I wanted to dig into the decision on holding the price on fresh. Are you seeing competitors do the same and that's why you reacted there? Or are you kind of trying to lead the charge there? And just curious like why make that decision since it seems like the consumer has been happy to take increased price, especially in fresh?

布蘭登·奇塔姆替保羅上場。第一個，我想深入了解保持新鮮價格的決定。您是否看到競爭對手也在做同樣的事情，這就是您在那裡做出反應的原因？還是你想在那裡帶頭？只是好奇為什麼要做出這個決定，因為消費者似乎很樂意接受上漲的價格，尤其是新鮮的？

The last thing you said there is exactly, I think, why we chose to do a little more there. We want to be the most competitive, and we can drive a lot of volume. And again, we're in it for the long term. And it's -- fresh is one of those unique areas where prices on many items do change almost weekly on some of those items, if not sooner -- if not more quickly. And so our buyers are always looking at the, if you will, the supermarket ads as well as the other warehouse club ads, not literally ads, but what the pricing is, and we react to that. But we're also -- part of it is also consciously keeping the price on the chicken at $4.99 and keeping -- and those types of things, keeping the price on the hotdog. All those things go into that equation as well. But we know that, that can be a driver of business, fresh, we got great stuff, and people do notice the price. In our view, people notice those price differences.

你說的最後一件事正是，我想，為什麼我們選擇在那裡多做一點。我們想成為最具競爭力的，我們可以推動大量的銷量。再一次，我們長期參與其中。而且它是 - 新鮮是那些獨特的領域之一，其中許多商品的價格幾乎每週都會在其中一些商品上發生變化，如果不是更快的話 - 如果不是更快的話。所以我們的買家總是在看，如果你願意的話，超市廣告以及其他倉庫俱樂部的廣告，不是字面上的廣告，而是定價是多少，我們對此做出反應。但我們也 - 其中一部分也有意識地將雞肉的價格保持在 4.99 美元並保持 - 以及那些類型的東西，保持熱狗的價格。所有這些東西也進入了那個等式。但我們知道，這可以成為業務的驅動力，新鮮的，我們有很棒的東西，人們確實注意到了價格。我們認為，人們會注意到這些價格差異。

And just a quick follow-up. You have a large competitor that's been talking about increased members in the $100,000-plus income cohort. Obviously, it's not impacting your membership numbers, but I'm just wondering, do you see any impact on share of wallet or any thoughts there? Do you look at how many of your members might have additional memberships as well?

并快速跟進。您有一個大型競爭對手，它一直在談論增加 100,000 美元以上收入群體的成員。顯然，這不會影響您的會員數量，但我只是想知道，您是否看到對錢包份額或任何想法有任何影響？您是否查看過您的會員中有多少可能還擁有額外的會員資格？

Well, we don't -- what's that? Somebody in the room is telling me we were also up in terms of the average household incomes. So I think we're both seeing that. We know a lot of -- particularly of our executive -- our business members, in many cases, probably have both cards. They've always had both cards. And so no, we don't put our head in the sand as it relates to it, but we look at our numbers and how we're doing, and we've seen that the -- our penetration of higher income members has also benefited during this time.

好吧，我們不——那是什麼？房間裡有人告訴我，我們的平均家庭收入也有所上升。所以我認為我們都看到了這一點。我們認識很多——尤其是我們的高管——我們的業務成員，在許多情況下，可能同時擁有這兩張卡。他們一直都有兩張牌。所以不，我們不會把頭埋在沙子裡，因為它與它有關，但我們看看我們的數字和我們的表現，我們已經看到——我們對高收入成員的滲透也這段時間受益。

We'll go next now to Oliver Chen at Cowen.

接下來我們將去 Cowen 的 Oliver Chen。

Before Oliver answers, one -- Oliver, before you ask a question, one other comment. One of the things that we have not done and don't plan to do is do a lot of promotional activities with our membership. And so that -- certainly, that will, in the short term, help drive membership, but we don't do a lot of that. Go ahead, Oliver.

在 Oliver 回答之前，Oliver，在你提問之前，請先發表另一條評論。我們沒有做，也不打算做的一件事是與我們的會員一起做很多促銷活動。因此 - 當然，這將在短期內幫助推動會員數量增加，但我們並沒有做太多這樣的事情。來吧，奧利弗。

Regarding e-commerce and going forward, what are your thoughts? You're up against some tough compares, but as we model it on a longer-term basis, how should the growth rates evolve? And then as we think about nonfood, you talked about it a lot, but do you expect the nonfood percentage mix to change from the past or it will more normalize? And lastly, on the higher income consumer and gains there, would love for you to elaborate on what's happening and if you're getting more luxury consumers in terms of higher income folks joining in the club.

關於電子商務和未來發展，您有什麼想法？你面臨著一些艱難的比較，但當我們在長期基礎上對其進行建模時，增長率應該如何演變？然後當我們考慮非食品時，您談到了很多，但您是否預計非食品百分比組合會從過去發生變化，或者會更加正常化？最後，關於高收入消費者和那裡的收益，我希望你能詳細說明正在發生的事情，以及你是否會因為高收入人群加入俱樂部而吸引更多的奢侈品消費者。

Sure. I wrote down nonfood. In terms of what's the new normal, look, we don't know what the new normal is. I do know that -- we figure out how to drive total sales. I do know that over the last 2.5 years through COVID, people buying things for their home, whether it was indoor furniture, outdoor furniture, exercise equipment, electronics and appliances and it increased even greater because of our acquisition in April of 2020 of the last mile, big and bulky delivery and installation arm from Sears, all that stuff has helped us dramatically.

當然。我寫下了非食品。至於什麼是新常態，看，我們不知道新常態是什麼。我確實知道——我們想辦法推動總銷售額。我確實知道，在過去的 2.5 年裡，通過 COVID，人們為他們的家購買東西，無論是室內家具、戶外家具、健身器材、電子產品和電器，而且由於我們在 2020 年 4 月收購了最後一家英里，大而笨重的西爾斯交付和安裝臂，所有這些東西都極大地幫助了我們。

Look, a little bit is -- again, we don't know how much of it is just comparing against very strong numbers versus a little weakness. Our guess is a little above. We want to drive -- we always want to drive everything, but we want to drive more nonfood things because you've got -- you don't need any extra space. If you're turning fresh foods at 50, 60x a year or more, you're turning some nonfood categories at 8x a year. It's easy to go from 8 to 10 without any extra space in the building. So that's always been a goal of ours to drive both sides of the business, and we think we're pretty good at doing it. And this will be -- we'll find out what the answer is a year from now. On -- what was the other question? I'm sorry.

看，有一點——再一次，我們不知道其中有多少只是與非常強勁的數字相比，而不是一點點弱點。我們的猜測有點偏上。我們想開車——我們總是想開車，但我們想開車更多非食品，因為你有——你不需要任何額外的空間。如果您以每年 50 倍、60 倍或更多的速度轉變新鮮食品，那麼您將以每年 8 倍的速度轉變一些非食品類別。在建築物中沒有任何額外空間的情況下，很容易從 8 人到 10 人。因此，推動業務的雙方一直是我們的目標，我們認為我們非常擅長這樣做。這將是——我們將在一年後找出答案。關於——另一個問題是什麼？對不起。

On e-com and the e-com long-term growth rate there. And then also the higher income [for this year].

關於電子商務和電子商務的長期增長率。然後 [今年] 的收入也更高。

Sure. Okay. On e-com, again, that is even more dramatic if you look at what e-com did. We essentially doubled e-com over a 12-month period from about -- worldwide from about $8 billion to $16 billion in that probably 3 or 4 months into COVID and then going fast forward a year, so the last half of fiscal '20 and the first half of fiscal '21. We had pretty good numbers over the last year. That, of course, dramatically impacted in a good way from our acquisition of Innovel.

當然。好的。同樣，在電子商務方面，如果您查看電子商務的表現，情況會更加引人注目。我們基本上在 12 個月的時間裡將電子商務從大約 - 全球範圍內從大約 80 億美元增加到 160 億美元，這可能是在進入 COVID 的 3 或 4 個月內，然後快進一年，所以 20 財年的後半年和21 財年上半年。去年我們有相當不錯的數字。當然，這對我們收購 Innovel 產生了巨大的影響。

And doing -- as I mentioned on the last earnings call, pre that acquisition in the U.S., we did about a little over 2 million drops, and a drop is anything from dropping off a sofa to dropping off and installing a washer dryer or a refrigerator freezer and taking the old one away. We've gone from a little over 2 million drops. In fiscal '22, we did a little over 4 million drops, 70% of which is on the site and this operation that we acquired. So we've had outsized growth on that. Helped also not only by the acquisition but COVID itself. So we're comparing against that now. We'll see where that goes. We think that e-commerce is still long term.

正如我在上次財報電話會議上提到的那樣，在美國進行收購之前，我們進行了大約 200 萬次滴水，滴水是從沙發上掉下來到安裝洗衣機烘乾機或洗衣機的任何東西冰箱冰櫃，把舊的拿走。我們已經減少了 200 萬多滴。在 22 財年，我們進行了略多於 400 萬次投放，其中 70% 是在網站上和我們收購的這項業務上。所以我們在這方面取得了巨大的增長。不僅受到收購的幫助，而且受到 COVID 本身的幫助。所以我們現在正在與它進行比較。我們將看看會發生什麼。我們認為電子商務仍然是長期的。

First of all, as you know, we still want you to get into the warehouse as well. That's what -- so long term, we still think right now, we want to grow the e-commerce. I would say our goal still is to grow it a little more than in line right now because so much of it has been benefited by big-ticket items, which have shown some weakness that's impacting a little bit right now. So -- but long term, we want to still be -- even 9% or 10% of a $240 billion or $250 billion business here is a big chunk of business. In terms of the last question, I'm sorry, I didn't write it down.

首先，如您所知，我們仍然希望您也能進入倉庫。這就是 - 從長遠來看，我們現在仍然認為，我們希望發展電子商務。我想說的是，我們的目標仍然是讓它比現在的增長多一點，因為它中的大部分都受益於高價商品，這些商品已經顯示出一些弱點，現在正在產生一些影響。所以——但從長遠來看，我們仍然希望——在價值 2400 億美元或 2500 億美元的業務中，即使 9% 或 10% 也是很大一部分業務。關於最後一個問題，對不起，我沒有寫下來。

Yes. I think of Costco as a luxury company, too. So what are your thoughts on getting the higher income consumers? And anything you're seeing with your existing consumers in terms of behavior? Because everybody is under a little bit of pressure as well.

是的。我也認為 Costco 是一家奢侈品公司。那麼，您對吸引高收入消費者有何看法？您在現有消費者的行為方面看到了什麼？因為每個人都承受著一點點壓力。

Well, again, someone in the room here showed me that I think the data that somebody had asked me about where Walmart had indicated, we're all looking at that same data. We too saw the metrics of a little bit higher percentage of higher income people coming in, notwithstanding the fact that we start with a higher percentage to start with. That's -- we try to trade you up. And you know the quality of our merchandise, and we'd much rather sell you a bigger-ticket item with all the bells and whistles. So I think that -- it's the way we merchandise, and we're not looking to change that at this juncture.

好吧，這裡房間裡的某個人再次向我展示了我認為有人問過我關於沃爾瑪指示位置的數據，我們都在看同樣的數據。我們也看到了高收入人群進入的比例稍微高一點的指標，儘管我們一開始的比例更高。那是——我們試圖用你的方式換取你。而且您知道我們商品的質量，我們更願意賣給您價格更高、價格更高的商品。所以我認為 - 這是我們的商品銷售方式，我們不打算在這個時候改變它。

We go next now to Greg Melich of Evercore.

接下來我們將介紹 Evercore 的 Greg Melich。

Richard, I'd just like to talk about how traffic seems to be growing closer to 2% now in the U.S. Is there anything specific going on there? Or we just need to get used to it as recycling lower gas prices and tough out the slower traffic?

理查德，我只想談談現在美國的流量似乎增長接近 2%。那裡有什麼具體的事情嗎？或者我們只是需要習慣它，因為回收較低的汽油價格並克服較慢的交通？

Perhaps. I mean we still think anything that's even in the low single digits is great. And we benefited clearly from -- over the course of the last year, we benefited, as I've seen in our membership sign-ups, more people coming in and the gas business driving that a little bit as well. And just during COVID, we had a higher than previously average tick up and new member sign-ups. And so that's probably subsiding a little bit at this juncture. But again, we feel good -- very good about where our renewal rates are and then the loyalty that our members have. And we're pretty good at trying to figure out ways to get them in. We're doing -- we do online e-mails that are in-line directed for hot items to come in only available in store. And so those are the things that we continue to do.

也許。我的意思是我們仍然認為即使是低個位數的任何東西都很棒。我們明顯受益於——在過去的一年裡，正如我在我們的會員註冊中看到的那樣，我們受益匪淺，更多的人加入進來，而天然氣業務也在推動這一點。就在 COVID 期間，我們的註冊量和新會員註冊量都高於之前的平均水平。因此，在這個關頭，這可能會有所消退。但同樣，我們感覺很好——對我們的續訂率以及我們會員的忠誠度非常滿意。而且我們非常擅長設法找出讓他們進來的方法。我們正在做——我們做在線電子郵件，這些電子郵件是內聯的，目的是讓熱門商品只在商店有售。因此，這些就是我們繼續做的事情。

Got it. Could you update us on any private label extra gains that you're getting in this environment or trade down perhaps between proteins or anything like that worth calling out?

知道了。您能否向我們介紹您在這種環境中獲得的任何自有品牌額外收益，或者可能在蛋白質或任何值得呼籲的類似事物之間進行折衷？

We haven't seen -- last quarter, I mentioned a couple of things on the fresh side and the protein side that we actually saw strength in canned chicken and tuna, which was the comment that the buyers made saying that we're seeing -- to the extent that prices were skyrocketing in some fresh protein, we saw strength in canned protein. We don't see currently a lot of trade down on fresh. Prices have started to come down on some of those items as the underlying commodity costs have come down a little bit.

我們還沒有看到 - 上個季度，我提到了新鮮方面和蛋白質方面的一些事情，我們實際上看到了雞肉和金槍魚罐頭的實力，這是買家說我們看到的評論 - - 就某些新鮮蛋白質的價格飛漲而言，我們看到了罐裝蛋白質的價格上漲。我們目前沒有看到很多新鮮的貿易下降。由於基礎商品成本略有下降，其中一些商品的價格已經開始下降。

KS penetration is up. Our Kirkland Signature is up. I don't have the exact number in front of me. I'm guessing it's about somewhere approaching a percentage point, but -- which is big when it's -- I would say, over the last several years, it's probably been 0.5 percentage point. But -- so probably up a little more than normal, but -- and again, we had -- somebody had asked us the question recently. Are you seeing some trade down to private label. And we, of course, corrected them and said it's a trade up.

KS 滲透率上升。我們的柯克蘭簽名已上線。我面前沒有確切的數字。我猜它大約接近一個百分點，但是 - 當它很大時 - 我會說，在過去的幾年裡，它可能是 0.5 個百分點。但是 - 所以可能比正常情況多一點，但是 - 再一次，我們有 - 最近有人問過我們這個問題。您是否看到一些貿易下降到私人標籤。當然，我們糾正了他們並說這是一種交易。

You also mentioned it's a housekeeping item, but I want to make sure I got the charge right. So you're basically running a check to reduce the size of a contract that was at a higher price. So when -- what's the payback period on that check? Do we see it over 4 quarters, 2 quarters, 6 quarters?

您還提到它是家政用品，但我想確保我的費用正確無誤。因此，您基本上是在運行支票以減少價格較高的合同的規模。那麼什麼時候 - 該支票的投資回收期是多少？我們是否會在 4 個季度、2 個季度或 6 個季度內看到它？

It's a moving target, honestly. It's based on rates, frankly, and rates right now have come down dramatically. So that would be a year, it could be a little longer than a year or a little less than a year, depending on what happens tomorrow.

老實說，這是一個移動的目標。坦率地說，這是基於利率，而現在利率已經大幅下降。所以那將是一年，可能會比一年長一點，也可能比一年短一點，這取決於明天會發生什麼。

We go next now to Peter Benedict of Baird.

接下來我們請貝爾德的彼得·本尼迪克特發言。

Richard, just on new member sign-ups, you kind of mentioned it a little bit there in response to Greg's question. But just maybe talk about new member sign-up trends. Holistically, what you're seeing, anything U.S. versus maybe some of these international markets you've been entering. Just interested in your latest thoughts there.

理查德，關於新會員註冊，你在回答格雷格的問題時提到了一點。但也許只是談論新會員註冊趨勢。從整體上看，你所看到的，任何美國與你可能進入的這些國際市場中的一些。只是對您那裡的最新想法感興趣。

Well, I think the biggest thing continues to be we're better when somebody does sign up, that they sign up in those countries where we offer executive membership, which is, I'm guessing, 85% of our company, more, maybe 90% of our company. It's just not in some of the smaller unit countries. And overall, starting with the U.S., but overall in Canada, we do a better job of getting you to sign up as an executive member to start with. We also do a better job of getting you to sign up to auto renew with putting in your credit card. All those things help -- let's face it, all those things help, too.

好吧，我認為最重要的事情仍然是，當有人註冊時，我們會變得更好，他們在我們提供高管會員資格的國家註冊，我猜，我們公司的 85%，也許更多我們公司的90%。它只是不在一些較小的單位國家。總體而言，從美國開始，但總體而言在加拿大，我們在讓您註冊成為執行會員方面做得更好。我們還可以更好地讓您通過輸入信用卡來註冊自動續訂。所有這些都有幫助——讓我們面對現實吧，所有這些也都有幫助。

We know that an executive member buys more and shops more frequently in a year than a Gold Star member. We know that one of those members with a credit card, co-brand credit card, shops even more frequently and spends more. And they do all 3, they're an executive member, rather, with a card versus being a regular member. That's the big kahuna here. And so I think that we've seen those trends go on over the last few years, frankly. And what's helped in the last year is the fact that, again, just our new member sign-ups has been higher than they had been historically over the last few years versus the last year -- last year or 2. And I think we believe that's more because of COVID, and we were a good place to shop.

我們知道，與金星會員相比，執行會員在一年內的購買量和購物頻率更高。我們知道，其中一位擁有信用卡、聯名信用卡的會員購物頻率更高，消費也更高。他們做所有 3 件事，他們是執行會員，而不是普通會員。那就是這裡的大卡胡納。因此，坦率地說，我認為我們在過去幾年中看到了這些趨勢。去年有所幫助的事實是，再一次，與過去幾年相比，我們的新會員註冊人數高於歷史水平——去年或兩年。我認為我們相信這更多是因為 COVID，我們是購物的好地方。

Sure. That makes sense. And as my last question, just interest and interest income and other, obviously, has a few components to it. I'm curious if you can help us understand what the interest income was in the quarter. I think it was about $8 million last year. I'm sure that was up a lot this quarter. Just curious if you could give us a sense of what that number was in the first quarter.

當然。那講得通。作為我的最後一個問題，利息和利息收入以及其他顯然有一些組成部分。我很好奇您能否幫助我們了解本季度的利息收入是多少。我認為去年大約是 800 萬美元。我敢肯定，這個季度增長了很多。只是好奇您是否可以讓我們了解第一季度的數字是多少。

Is that in the Q? Okay. Yes, I can give it to you. Hold on a second. I didn't realize it's in the Q, which is not out yet. But what it is, is you've got a big increase in interest income and a big increase in FX downside. So of the 50 -- I think it was 53 is -- $54 million is interest income and a negative $1 million is other, which is a chunk of that's FX. And then this year, the $42 million -- I'm sorry, last year, it was $8 million of interest income and $34 million of other, the biggest piece of other being FX. So that added up to the $42 million. This year, the $53 million -- it's $54 million of interest income and minus $1 million of other.

是在Q裡嗎？好的。是的，我可以給你。稍等一下。我沒有意識到它在Q中，還沒有出來。但實際情況是，利息收入大幅增加，而外匯下行風險大幅增加。因此，在這 50 個中——我認為是 53 個——5400 萬美元是利息收入，負 100 萬美元是其他收入，這是外彙的一大塊。然後今年，4200 萬美元——對不起，去年，這是 800 萬美元的利息收入和 3400 萬美元的其他收入，其中最大的一部分是外匯收入。所以加起來就是 4200 萬美元。今年，5300 萬美元——這是 5400 萬美元的利息收入減去 100 萬美元的其他收入。

And we'll go next now to Kelly Bania of BMO.

接下來我們將介紹 BMO 的 Kelly Bania。

Richard, just had one on elasticity and then another follow-up on the big ticket. But in terms of elasticity, any changes -- I'm not sure how you measure it or monitor it, but any changes in your members' response to your actions when you are taking some lower prices here?

理查德，剛剛有一個關於彈性的問題，然後是另一個關於大票的後續行動。但是就彈性而言，任何變化——我不確定你是如何衡量或監控它的，但是當你在這裡採取一些較低的價格時，你的會員對你的行為的反應有什麼變化嗎？

I think if you asked the buyers overall, that there's a little less elasticity than there used to be on some of the things. Again, now that answer comes from the fact that my comments about big-ticket discretionary items. We've put more money behind it and that successfully cleaned up our inventory where we were over in some areas like furniture, to some extent. But at the end of the day, I think in a year or 2 ago, we would have even guessed that could have been a little stronger. But then that gets back to the whole question is the economy -- the concerns in the economy impacting big-ticket discretionary items. So yes, I mean there's clearly still elasticity. When we do temporary price discounts or even our MVM mailers, we still get good impact from it. Some things, the bigger the ticket, not as much as we used to get.

我想如果你問整體的買家，有些東西的彈性比以前少了一點。同樣，現在這個答案來自於我對大件可自由支配物品的評論。我們已經投入了更多的資金，並且在某種程度上成功地清理了我們在家具等某些領域的庫存。但歸根結底，我認為在一兩年前，我們甚至會猜到它可能會更強一些。但這又回到了整個問題是經濟——經濟中的擔憂影響大件可自由支配的物品。所以是的，我的意思是顯然仍然有彈性。當我們做臨時價格折扣甚至我們的 MVM 郵件時，我們仍然會從中獲得很好的影響。有些東西，門票越大，不像我們以前得到的那麼多。

That's helpful. And then just a follow-up again on the big ticket. What percent of your sales would you say are big ticket? Maybe it ebbs and flows with the seasons, but just in general. And do you see that members are pretty broad-based in pulling back, meaning across income levels, executive, Gold Star, et cetera?

這很有幫助。然後再次對大票進行跟進。您認為大筆銷售額佔銷售額的百分比是多少？也許它隨著季節的變化而潮起潮落，但總的來說。你是否看到成員在撤回方面的基礎非常廣泛，這意味著在收入水平、高管、金星等方面？

Well, online, it's a little over 40%. But online is only 9% of our sales. In store, I don't have it in front of me. 10% would be a good guess. I'm including that 10% furniture as well. So big -- and jewelry, big-ticket discretionary.

嗯，在網上，是40%多一點。但在線銷售額僅占我們銷售額的 9%。在商店裡，我面前沒有。 10% 是一個很好的猜測。我也包括那 10% 的家具。這麼大——還有珠寶，大價錢可自由支配。

And we'll go next now to Chris Horvers at JPMorgan.

接下來我們將請摩根大通的 Chris Horvers 發言。

So following up a little bit there. On the TV side, is it -- how much of it is a units down issue versus deflation? And is there any differentiation that you're seeing between larger and smaller screen size purchases?

所以在那裡跟進一點。在電視方面，它是 - 有多少是單位減少問題與通貨緊縮？您是否看到購買大屏幕尺寸和小屏幕尺寸之間的區別？

Yes. Units are actually up. And there's normal deflation in TV electronics anyway. And -- but there is perhaps a little bit of -- smaller sizes are coming down a little bit. Not everyone wants an 85-inch television but -- which is where we over-index to bigger ticket stuff to start with. But we are seeing actual unit sales up.

是的。單位實際上上升了。無論如何，電視電子產品都會出現正常的通貨緊縮。而且 - 但可能有一點 - 較小的尺寸正在下降一點點。不是每個人都想要一台 85 英寸的電視，但是——這是我們過度索引更大的東西的地方。但我們看到實際單位銷售額有所上升。

So units are up with strength -- relative strength in smaller sizes?

所以單位的力量越來越大——較小尺寸的相對力量？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Got it. And then a couple of sort of other bigger picture consumer questions. I guess, is there -- are you seeing maybe some mid- to low end maybe not buying the 18 pack of Bounty? Like do you think you might be losing some category share as someone's trying to economize the ticket for your -- the lower half of your income perspective? And then can you also talk about regionality? Obviously, there's some weakness in certain housing markets in certain cities, and then there's -- you have a big exposure to California. There's been more layoff news in the technology industry, and there's some population migration. So what are you seeing from a regionality perspective where you're seeing more weakness versus strength?

知道了。然後是其他一些更宏觀的消費者問題。我想，有沒有——你是否看到一些中低端用戶可能不購買 18 包 Bounty？就像你認為你可能會失去一些類別份額，因為有人試圖為你節省門票 - 你收入觀點的下半部分？然後你也可以談談區域性嗎？顯然，某些城市的某些房地產市場存在一些疲軟，然後 - 你對加利福尼亞有很大的敞口。科技行業裁員消息較多，人口遷移也有所增加。那麼，從區域性角度來看，您看到的弱點多於強項是什麼？

Well, first of all, we're seeing strength in sundries as part of what we call food and sundries, which is everything. Food and food and sundries is everything from canned beverages to crackers and cereal, and sundries, of course, paper goods and cleaning supplies and the like. And we're seeing strength in those areas. Those are actually strong, offset by some of the weakness I talked about on the nonfood side.

好吧，首先，我們看到雜物的力量是我們所說的食物和雜物的一部分，也就是一切。食品食品和雜物是從罐裝飲料到餅乾和麥片的一切，當然還有紙製品和清潔用品之類的雜物。我們在這些領域看到了力量。這些實際上很強大，被我在非食品方面談到的一些弱點所抵消。

As it relates to regional, I don't -- we don't really see any big differences. I mean every month, you're going to see a region stronger or weaker. It has more to do in our view right now of late with weather than anything else. I can't give you anything definitive on what's -- is the region -- they're all pretty close.

由於它涉及區域，我不認為 - 我們真的沒有看到任何大的差異。我的意思是每個月，你都會看到一個地區更強或更弱。在我們看來，最近與天氣的關係比其他任何事情都重要。我不能給你任何關於什麼是 - 是區域 - 它們都非常接近的明確信息。

They're within 1.5 or 2 points.

他們在 1.5 或 2 分之內。

Bob is saying here, they're within a couple of points of comp.

鮑勃在這裡說，他們在幾個點之內。

Got it. And then 1 cleanup question. Just on the inventory, you talked about pockets. It sounded like you cleaned up furniture and electronics, it sounds like. Is there any -- where are those pockets? How much is maybe holiday decor or toys, other more at-risk categories in the month of December?

知道了。然後是 1 個清理問題。就庫存而言，您談到了口袋。聽起來像是您清理了家具和電子產品，聽起來像。有沒有——那些口袋在哪裡？ 12 月份的節日裝飾品或玩具以及其他風險較高的類別可能有多少？

The good news is our merchants are sitting here. Holiday decor is fine. One example actually would be we have a small amount of air conditioners and fans, which was -- it was a hot summer, and we were very strong in it. There were delays -- some of the supply chain challenges, some of that stuff didn't come in until September. And needless to say, we're not going to put it out there and mark it down when nobody really is looking for an air conditioner unit in September. And so that's the example of a few things now. We still have some furniture. It's way down from where it had been. So very, very manageable. I think beyond that, there's nothing huge. And again, the big question right now would be the fact that from a standpoint of Christmas stuff, both the [trim] stuff as well as toys, we're in pretty good shape for that. We feel pretty good about that.

好消息是我們的商人坐在這裡。節日裝飾很好。一個例子實際上是我們有少量的空調和風扇，那是一個炎熱的夏天，我們在其中非常強大。有延誤——一些供應鏈挑戰，其中一些直到 9 月才出現。不用說，我們不會在 9 月沒有人真正在尋找空調裝置時將其放在那裡並記下來。這就是現在的一些例子。我們還有一些家具。它比原來的地方低了很多。非常非常易於管理。我認為除此之外，沒有什麼大的了。再一次，現在的大問題是，從聖誕節用品的角度來看，[裝飾] 用品和玩具，我們都處於非常好的狀態。我們對此感覺很好。

We go next now to Scot Ciccarelli at Truist.

接下來我們去 Truist 的 Scot Ciccarelli。

I guess I have another gross margin question. And I guess it's -- look, if consumables continue to outpace discretionary goods based on what we're seeing in the economy, should we expect gross margins to compress a bit just from mix? Or do you have enough levers given existing price gaps across most of your categories to match the flattish gross margins? Just how should we think about the mix impact?

我想我還有另一個毛利率問題。而且我猜它是 - 看，如果根據我們在經濟中看到的情況，消耗品繼續超過可自由支配的商品，我們是否應該期望毛利率僅從混合中壓縮一點？還是考慮到大多數類別的現有價格差距，您是否有足夠的槓桿來匹配持平的毛利率？我們應該如何考慮混合影響？

We'll let you know next quarter. I mean we have a lot of levers, as you've mentioned, as you've suggested, to pull and push. We're also aggressive on pricing when we want to be like in the fresh foods area that I just mentioned. And we're blessed right now with -- in some categories like gas that is a better margin. So all that stuff, again, there's a variety of puts and takes. We feel overall, there's nothing unusual about this quarter. And frankly, if inflation is not rising again, even if it doesn't go down, but it doesn't rise again from its current levels, we're in pretty good stead of greatly improving the component of margin that relates to a LIFO charge, particularly in Q3 and 4 when we had a $100-plus million number and a $200-plus million number. But that's to be seen, and we need to wait and see.

我們會在下個季度通知您。我的意思是，正如您所提到的，正如您所建議的那樣，我們有很多槓桿可以拉動和推動。當我們想像我剛才提到的新鮮食品領域那樣時，我們在定價方面也很積極。我們現在很幸運——在天然氣等某些類別中，利潤率更高。所以所有這些東西，再一次，有各種各樣的投入和投入。總的來說，我們覺得這個季度沒有什麼不尋常的。坦率地說，如果通貨膨脹沒有再次上升，即使它沒有下降，但也沒有從目前的水平再次上升，我們就可以大大改善與後進先出法相關的保證金組成部分收費，特別是在第三季度和第四季度，當時我們有一個超過 100 萬美元的數字和一個超過 200 萬美元的數字。但這還有待觀察，我們需要拭目以待。

So just as a follow-up on that, Richard. Like fair to say that we're going to see lower freight rates starting to flow through the P&L and let's call it less markdown pressure because the inventories are cleaned up a bit more than the last few quarters?

因此，作為對此的後續行動，理查德。可以公平地說，我們將看到較低的運費開始流經損益表，讓我們稱之為減價壓力較小，因為庫存比過去幾個季度清理得更多？

That should help you a little bit, sure. But as you might expect and one of the reasons we took this charge is we don't want to have to have the buyers worry about inputting higher costs into their -- if rates have come down and we contracted, we want to take some of that out. But that's still being worked through. That's not -- we have to continue to do that. Beyond that, as rates come down, you'll see our prices on items come down, too.

當然，這應該對你有一點幫助。但正如您所預料的那樣，我們收取這項費用的原因之一是我們不想讓買家擔心將更高的成本投入他們的 - 如果利率下降並且我們簽約，我們希望採取一些那個出來。但這仍在解決中。那不是——我們必須繼續這樣做。除此之外，隨著利率下降，您會看到我們的商品價格也會下降。

Okay. Why don't we take 2 more questions?

好的。我們為什麼不再回答 2 個問題？

Certainly, Richard. We'll go next now to Karen Short at Credit Suisse.

當然，理查德。接下來我們將介紹瑞士信貸的 Karen Short。

But I did want to clarify on 2 things. So in the past, when you have had slightly weakening traffic trends that has generally been a point to consider to actually push through a higher membership rate increase, so I'm wondering, I know this is a very unusual time, but has that philosophy changed at all? Because obviously, your comps are changing or in -- or slowing? And then I would ask the same thing as it relates to the special dividend. We all know what your cash is and available cash is on the balance sheet in terms of timing with respect to announcing something like that along the lines of the fact that I think your Board meeting is mid-January.

但我確實想澄清兩件事。所以在過去，當你的流量趨勢略有減弱時，通常會考慮實際推動更高的會員率增長，所以我想知道，我知道這是一個非常不尋常的時期，但有這樣的理念改變了嗎？因為很明顯，你的公司正在改變或正在——或正在放緩？然後我會問同樣的事情，因為它與特別股息有關。我們都知道你的現金是多少，資產負債表上有多少可用現金，就宣布類似事情的時間而言，我認為你的董事會會議是在 1 月中旬。

We have 1 every quarter. Look, we talked about both of those. In terms of the fee increase, I think over the last many years, we've probably done them at a time when things were particularly strong comp-wise. The good news is during all times, renewal rates were strong and have gotten even stronger. We always look at ourselves in the mirror and feel that the value proposition has gotten better. That being said, we have done them -- I remember one time we were asked, it may have been back in '09, '10, during the Great Recession, because I guess we did one probably in '11 or '12, which continued the Great Recession, and we'd be asked, given the Great Recession, would you hold off on it?

我們每個季度有 1 個。看，我們談到了這兩個。就費用增加而言，我認為在過去的很多年裡，我們可能是在競爭激烈的時候完成的。好消息是，在任何時候，續訂率都很高，而且越來越高。我們總是看著鏡子裡的自己，覺得價值主張變得更好了。話雖如此，我們已經完成了它們——我記得有一次我們被問到，可能是在 09 年、10 年大蕭條期間，因為我想我們可能在 11 年或 12 年做了一個，這繼續大衰退，我們會被問到，鑑於大衰退，你會推遲嗎？

And our view was -- and comps were a little weaker back then, too, for at least a couple of quarters. And I think the comment I made was something to the effect, we'd probably do it anyway because we're going to use it to drive greater value in terms of pricing and everything in a big way. And so that really -- I think we've probably done it in times of lower comps or higher comps or good economy or tougher economy. And I think with the headline in the -- I probably mentioned in the last quarter call or even the quarter before that, with the headline being recession question mark and inflation exclamation point, there's no rush.

我們的觀點是 - 那時至少有幾個季度的競爭也有點弱。而且我認為我所做的評論是有影響的，我們可能無論如何都會這樣做，因為我們將使用它來在定價和所有方面以大的方式推動更大的價值。所以這真的 - 我認為我們可能已經在較低的補償或較高的補償或良好的經濟或更艱難的經濟時期做到了。而且我認為標題是——我可能在上個季度甚至之前的一個季度提到過，標題是衰退問號和通脹感嘆號，沒有急事。

And first of all, even if we follow the pattern of the last 3 over the last 16 or so years, they averaged 5 years and 7 months. And I know now that 5 years and 7 months from June of '17 is January of '23. I know on the last call, I said, that doesn't mean it's going to be January '23. It will be -- it's a question of when, not if. But at this juncture, we'll just have to wait and see. And I'm not trying to be cute about it, but there's not a whole lot more I can tell you. There's no analytical framework we use other than we feel very good about our member loyalty and our strength. And if we wanted to do it yesterday, we could. If we want to do it 6 months from now, we can. So we'll wait and see.

首先，即使我們按照過去 16 年左右的最後 3 年的模式，他們的平均時間為 5 年零 7 個月。我現在知道從 17 年 6 月算起的 5 年零 7 個月是 23 年 1 月。我知道在最後一次通話中，我說過，這並不意味著將是 23 年 1 月。這將是——這是一個何時的問題，而不是是否會的問題。但在這個關頭，我們只能拭目以待。我並不是想表現得很可愛，但我能告訴你的不多了。除了我們對會員忠誠度和實力感到非常滿意之外，我們沒有使用任何分析框架。如果我們昨天想做，我們可以。如果我們想在 6 個月後這樣做，我們可以。所以我們拭目以待。

As it relates to the special dividend, as you know, we've said before, it's certainly an arrow in our quiver that has boded well for us, we believe. We think that's done well. We've done 4 of them. The last one was a couple of years ago, and we certainly do have cash. Mind you, when you look at our cash, about half of it's U.S. and not cash equivalents. And so certainly, we have the ability to do it at some point. I think we wanted to wait and see how things are continuing here. I think that, too, is probably a question of when, not if, but again, you'll be the second to know, after us.

由於它與特別股息有關，正如你所知，我們之前已經說過，我們相信這肯定是我們箭袋中的一支箭，對我們來說是個好兆頭。我們認為這做得很好。我們已經完成了其中的 4 個。上一次是幾年前的事了，我們當然有現金。請注意，當您查看我們的現金時，大約有一半是美國現金，而不是現金等價物。當然，我們有能力在某個時候做到這一點。我想我們想拭目以待，看看這裡的情況如何。我認為這也可能是一個時間問題，不是是否，而是再次，您將是我們之後第二個知道的問題。

And we'll take our final question this evening from Robby Ohmes of Bank of America.

今晚我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Robby Ohmes 的最後一個問題。

It will be a real quick one, Richard. Can you just remind us, you're back to 15 net stores in the U.S., but what has to happen to go back to kind of the years where you would open kind of a net 25 a year in the U.S. and maybe relieve some of the pressure on the over-productive clubs in the U.S. right now?

這將是一個真正的快速，理查德。你能不能提醒我們一下，你在美國又回到了 15 家網店，但必須要回到那種你每年在美國開 25 家網店的年代，也許可以減輕一些現在美國過度生產的俱樂部面臨的壓力是什麼？

Yes. I think it's been a few years. I mean when we opened the net of 27 or 28, maybe low 20s or 22 or 23 were there, but we've been at maybe 16 or 17 out of 23-ish in the last few years. If you ask Greg, who's not in the room, but if you ask him, if we're opening a net of 24 this year, I think I said, what's the goal 5 and 10 years from now? Probably to get it closer to 30 net. And probably by 5 years from now, it's 50-50 U.S. elsewhere versus elsewhere. That's the same answer I, by the way, said 5 years ago in terms of the split. But we'd like to see add 5 to that 24 in the next few years to go up a little bit higher. We certainly have a lot of activity going on.

是的。我想已經有幾年了。我的意思是當我們打開 27 或 28 的淨值時，可能有低 20 或 22 或 23，但在過去幾年中我們可能在 23 左右中有 16 或 17。如果你問格雷格，他不在房間裡，但如果你問他，如果我們今年打開 24 個網絡，我想我說的是，從現在起 5 年和 10 年的目標是什麼？可能是為了讓它接近 30 淨值。可能到 5 年後，美國其他地方與其他地方相比是 50-50。順便說一句，這與我 5 年前在分裂方面所說的相同。但我們希望在接下來的幾年裡看到在 24 的基礎上再增加 5，以便更高一點。我們當然有很多活動正在進行。

Okay. With that, everyone, I'll thank you. Have a good holiday, and we're around to answer questions.

好的。有了這個，大家，我會感謝你。祝您假期愉快，我們隨時為您答疑解惑。

Thank you, Richard. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude Costco's Fiscal Q1 2023 Conference Call. Thank you all so much for joining us. I wish you all a great evening. Goodbye.

謝謝你，理查德。女士們，先生們，這將結束好市多 2023 財年第一季度的電話會議。非常感謝大家加入我們。祝大家度過一個愉快的夜晚。再見。

Thank you.

謝謝你。