好市多 (COST) 2012 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, my name is Dawn, and I will be your conference operator today.

At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the third-quarter and year-to-date operating results for FY'12 conference call.

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After the speaker's remarks there will be a question-and-answer session.

(Operator Instructions).

Thank you.

Mr. Richard Galanti, you may begin your conference, sir.

Thank you, Dawn; good morning to everybody.

This morning's press release reviews our third-quarter operating results for the 12 weeks ended this past May 6.

As with every conference call, I'll start by stating that the discussions we're having will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and that these statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events, results and/or performance to differ materially from those indicated by such statements.

The risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those outlined in today's call as well as other risks identified from time to time in the Company's public statements and reports filed with the SEC.

To begin with, for the quarter our earnings per share came in at $0.88, up a little over 20% from last year's third-quarter earnings per share of $0.73 and $0.01 greater than the First Call consensus of $0.87.

As was mentioned in this morning's release, this year's third quarter included a pre-tax LIFO charge of $6.5 million or about $0.01 a share; last year's Q3 had a pre-tax LIFO charge of $49 million pre-tax or about $0.07 a share.

A few other items of note when reviewing the year-over-year earnings comparison -- again, our sales results, an 8% overall sales increase and a 5% comp sales increase; the FX impact from earnings of our foreign operations year over year, assuming FX rates have been flat year over year, that was a hit to pre-tax earnings of about $8 million or also a about $0.01 a share.

Also, we had a 9% increase in membership fees that I'll talk about.

This increase included a small benefit from last November's fee increase in the US and Canada, also about $8 million pre-tax or about $0.01 per share.

Lastly, we had a favorable year-over-year income tax rate comparison, similar to what we saw in Q2.

In terms of sales for the quarter, reported sales were up 8% total and on a comp basis of 5%.

For the quarter both total sales and comp sales were impacted by gasoline price inflation, which was largely offset by the weakening of foreign currencies on average relative to the US dollar year over year.

On a comp sales basis the 5% US comp sales increase in Q3, excluding gas inflation, would have been a 4%, and the reported 5% international comp figure, assuming flat year-over-year FX rates, would have been a plus 8%.

If you take those two together they offset each other and the reported 5%, excluding both gas inflation and FX, would have remained at a 5% for the total Company on a comp basis.

Other topics of interest, our opening activities and plans, after opening four new locations in Q1, which ended last November 20, we opened two locations in Q2, both in Japan.

In the third quarter we opened a location -- another location in Japan near Osaka and also reopened our Tamasakai warehouse in Japan which had been closed since the tragic events of last March 11 in Japan.

We also relocated a unit in Ontario, Canada and opened two new units in the third quarter as well in Pharr, Texas and in Huntington Beach, California.

At the end of Q3 our worldwide unit count was 602.

All told that would put our fiscal '12 expected opening schedule at 16 net new units, the 10 we've opened fiscal year-to-date and six more planned by fiscal year-end here in the fourth quarter.

These total 16 would include 10 in the US and six in Asia, one in Korea, one in Taiwan and four in Japan.

A quarter ago I had indicated we expected the total number for the year to be 17; one has since slipped into early fiscal 2013.

Also this morning I'll review with you our eCommerce results, our membership results and also a little bit further discussion on margins and SG&A and repurchase activities.

Again, sales were $21.8 billion, up 8% from last year's $20.2 billion and a 5% comp.

For the quarter the 5% reported comp figure was the result of a combination of average transaction increase of 1.7% for the quarter and average frequency increase of 3.6% for the quarter.

In terms of sales comparisons by geographic region, in the terms of -- in the US the Midwest, Northeast and Southeast regions were the strongest.

International and local currencies, Canada and Mexico were the strongest with Taiwan and Japan being the weakest, mostly due to the small base of existing units in both of those countries and the cannibalization associated with recent openings over the last year, as well as a year ago the very strong post-earthquake business that we experienced in Japan in the third quarter.

In terms of merchandise categories for the quarter, within food and sundries we had a comp result in the mid-single-digit range, a little below where it had been running in each of the past couple of fiscal quarters.

Also categories were positive ranging from 1% to 11% each among those seven or eight subcategories.

Within hardlines, which was in the low-single-digits positive, the strongest subcategories were hardware and automotive with electronics being slightly negative for the quarter.

Within the high-single-digit softlines comp, small appliances, domestics and apparel were the strongest performers.

In fresh foods all subcategories were all centered around the mid-single-digit range as was the entire category.

Food and sundries and fresh foods continue to experience inflation on a year-over-year basis in the low-single-digit range, but we are seeing a little bit of inflation abatement, if you will, in the past few weeks.

In fact, some price reductions on some food items like milk, cheese, bacon, butter, coffee, olive oil, flour, etc.

Still some inflation we see in beef and across many of the nuts categories.

On the nonfood side not much inflation expected going forward right now, although probably a little bit of a reduction on the apparel side.

That being said, you never didn't know until we get there.

Moving down the line item of the income statement -- membership fees, we reported $475 million versus $435 million a year ago, so up 1 basis point or $40 million and a year-over-year dollar increase up 9%.

As I indicated near the beginning of the call, the US and Canada fee increases that went into effect last November benefited Q3 results by about $8 million.

Excluding this fee increase benefit, if you will, as well as a slight negative impact of about $3 million from the FX that I mentioned earlier in terms of assuming flat FX year over year, the 9% dollar increase in membership fees would have been up 8%.

In terms of membership, we continue to enjoy strong renewal rates, which I'll talk about in a minute, and continue to enjoying increasing sales penetration and membership penetration from our executive members.

Our new member sign-ups in Q3 were quite strong, up 9% on a year-over-year basis largely as to the strong international openings this past year in Asia and Australia.

In terms of number of members at Q3 end, Gold Star we had 26.4 million, up from 25.9 million 12 weeks earlier; business primary at 6.4 million, also at 6.4 million a quarter ago; business add on 3.6 million compared to 3.7 million a quarter ago, that -- a lot has to do with as people convert to Executive Member they go out of the add-on category and become their own member.

All told we ended the quarter with 36.4 million member households versus 36.0 million at the end of the second quarter.

And including spouse cards, total cardholders 66.5 million, up from 65.7 million 12 weeks earlier.

At Q3 end our paid executive members were a little over 12.3 million, an increase of almost 200,000 in the 12-week fiscal quarter, about 16,000 new executive members per week, that's a combination of new sign-ups as well as conversions.

In terms of renewal rates, they continued strong.

The trends in the US and Canada have sequentially been up every quarter for the last several quarters.

At Q3 end -- as of Q3 end our business renewal rates were at 93.6 million, up from 93.5 million a quarter ago and up from 93.3 million at the end of the fiscal year.

Gold Star 88.6 million, up from 88.4 million and 88.1 million at the quarter end year fiscal year-end.

So all told in the US and Canada 89.6 million versus 89.4 million a quarter ago and 89.1 million at the beginning of the fiscal year.

On a worldwide basis we're at an 86.2 million up from an 85.6 million a quarter ago and 85.7 million at the end of the fiscal year.

So all told trending -- continuing to trend in good directions notwithstanding the fee increases that we began in November in the US and Canada.

As most of you know, the increases -- we increased the annual fee for Gold Star and business and business add-on, they're all now at $55 in the US and Canada, and for executive member it went from $100 to $110.

As I mentioned, those were effective November 1, but in terms of size it really was effective January 1. It was effective November 1 for new sign-ups in the warehouse, but in terms of the renewers that started in January and will continue through this December.

In all about 22 million members were impacted or will be impacted by this increase, about half of whom are executive members and half of whom are the $55 member.

In terms of timing of these increases in the income statement, please recall that the fees are accounted for on a preferred basis.

So really the first big impact to the P&L on that membership fee income line will be in the upcoming fourth quarter and into Q1 until next year.

As I previously mentioned on the first- and second-quarter calls, there was essentially no impact in Q1 to the membership line, about a $1 million pre-tax impact to Q2, and, as I mentioned earlier in this call, about $8 million pre-tax in Q3.

And again, it will be much more meaningful in Q4 and into Q1 and Q2 of next fiscal year.

It's essentially a 23-month time line, as I've talked about before, how we recognize the $5 and $10 increases starting when they're received -- the increase is paid and then spread out over the next 12 months.

With regard to executive membership, also in conjunction when doing an increase, as I mentioned earlier, we increased the 2% annual reward from a maximum of $500 a year to a maximum of $750 a year based on eligible purchases.

While it's still pretty early to see the complete impact of the renewal rates from the increase, so far so good, and in our judgment we don't expect any issue here.

Going down to the gross margin line, margins were up on a reported basis 5 basis points from a 10.50 to a 10.55.

I'll ask you to, as usual, drop down the following four columns and five line items.

The line items will be merchandising core, ancillary, third line item would be 2% reward; fourth line item will be LIFO and then total.

And the four columns -- there will be two columns for each of Q2 and Q3, the reported column for Q2 and then the second column would be without gas inflation.

We try to show you that to compare things on an apples-to-apples basis.

And the same thing for Q3, so columns three and four would be reported and column four without gas inflation.

So going across -- core merchandise in Q2, as you recall, we reported our core merchandise margin down 25 basis points.

Without gas inflation it was down 16 basis points.

In Q3 it was down 21 basis points reported and down 14 basis points without gas inflation.

Ancillary minus 5 bps and minus 4 bps in Q2 and in Q3 plus 7 bps and plus 8 bps.

2% reward minus 2 bps and minus 3 bps and the same numbers for Q3, minus 2 bps and minus 3 bps again.

LIFO plus 2 bps and plus 2 bps in Q2 and in Q3 plus 21 bps and plus 21 bps.

So all told in Q2 we reported 30 basis point year-over-year lower margin, without gas inflation 21 basis points to the negative.

In Q3, as I just mentioned, plus 5 bps reported and without gas inflation a plus 12 bps.

Now, mind you the big change there is still the LIFO effect of going from $49 million last year in Q3 to $7 million this year.

As you can see, our core merchandise was down 21 bps on a reported basis but the impact of gasoline sales now being almost 12% -- about 12% of our sales, up a little bit from last year, that increased penetration caused that number.

Taking that out it was 14 basis points minus.

Within the four merchandising categories of hard lines -- food and sundries, hard lines, soft lines and fresh foods, hard lines was up in margin year over year with the other three categories, food and sundries, soft lines and fresh foods down a little bit year over year.

Ancillary businesses and gross margin, as I mentioned, were up 7 basis points, or 8 excluding gas inflation, mostly a function of higher gasoline gross margins and the higher sales penetration as well.

Looking at those two together we did a little better in Q3 versus Q2.

The impact from increasing executive membership is minus 2 basis points, implying another percentage point of sales penetration going to those executive members in their eligible purchases.

And again of course the big delta here on looking at these numbers this way is the LIFO that I already mentioned.

Moving on to SG&A, our reported SG&A percentage Q3 over Q were lower or better by 2 basis points coming in at a [984] compared to last year's [986].

Again, I think the best way to look at this and explain it is to do the same four columns, reported and then without gas inflation and for both Q2 and Q3.

The line items would be operations, second line item central, third line item stock compensation, fourth -- actually just those three items and then a total.

Going across for operations, plus 25, meaning that in Q2 last year our SG&A from operations was lower year over year by 25 basis points, plus means good.

And then without gas inflation the plus 25 was plus 18, in Q3 it was plus 10 and plus 4.

Central plus 5 and plus 4 in Q2 year over year.

This year in Q3 versus last year, minus 8 and minus 9. Stock compensation minus 1 and minus 1 and then zero and zero.

So all told in Q2 we reported an improvement of plus 29 basis points year over year, or plus 21 without gas inflation, and this year, as I mentioned, plus 2 and then minus 5 without gas inflation.

So a little editorial here, just like the gross margin percentage where increased gasoline sales penetration hurt us, it correspondingly helped the core operations SG&A by about 6 basis points such that, excluding gas inflation, our core SG&A was lower or better by 4 basis points in the quarter.

And this is despite increased healthcare and workers' comp costs which together represented a Q3 year-over-year hit to SG&A in the high-single basis points level.

In Q2, by the way, healthcare and workers' comp and benefits had actually helped the year-over-year comparison.

Payroll, by the way, within the core business was up about 7% in dollars compared to the 8.2% sales increase.

Our central expense was worse or higher year over year by 8 basis points or 9 basis points excluding gas inflation.

About half of this negative basis point increase is due to higher IT costs related to a combination of things going on including the modernization of our systems and related activities that we've embarked on of late.

This includes, among many other items, the replatforming of our eCommerce site as well as our move to a new data center in Central Washington.

Central expenses also impacted a little bit a couple basis points by healthcare and benefits as well as a basis point on legal fees which can go either way.

Next on the income statement is pre-opening expense, $8 million last year in the third quarter and $6 million this year, so $2 million lower.

We actually opened four units in Q3 this year compared to -- including Tamasakai compared to just one last year.

No issues, simply the timing of these expenses related to the openings before, during and after the 12-week third-quarter in question.

In terms of asset impairment and closing costs, last year we had a charge of $1 million, this year we had a similar charge of about $1 million.

All told operating income in Q3 was up by $67 million from $556 million last year to $623 million this year.

Below the operating income reported interest expense was lower year over year with Q3 coming in at $19 million this year versus $27 million last year, so about $8 million lower year over year.

This mainly reflects the interest expense on our $2 billion debt offering and the fact that on March 15 we paid that offering back in February of '07.

On March 15 this last month -- a month and a half ago, we paid off $900 million of debt.

The anticipated annual pre-tax interest savings, given that we were paying off effectively 5.4% debt and foregoing interest income on our cash in the 20 to 50 basis point range, is about $46 million pre-tax per year -- net pre-tax savings to us.

For Q3 this represented a pre-tax savings of interest expense for about seven weeks or about $7 million.

For Q4, which, by the way, this is a 53-week fiscal year and therefore a 17-week fiscal fourth quarter, we had a pre-tax positive bump of about $15 million.

Again on an annualized basis, given where current cash interest rates are, it's about $46 million a year pre-tax savings to us.

In terms of interest income and other, that was $13 million better, $18 million this year versus $5 million a year ago.

Actual interest income was higher year over year by $1 million.

The biggest components of the $13 million year-over-year change were related to FX impacts on our business.

As discussed with you in the past couple of quarters, internally about $4 million of this benefit or this year-over-year positive change related to gains on FX contracts that we look at internally as efforts of -- part of our merchandising efforts, but on a book basis -- GAAP basis it goes on this line.

Also, about a $7 million benefit of this change increase related to gains on nonfunctional currencies held in foreign operations, notably the fact that in Costco in Mexico we hold some of our cash in dollars given that we also procure significant goods from our US operation on behalf of that operation.

For example, so as the dollar strengthened in these past couple of months Costco Mexico generated a book gain.

Half of that is ours since we own half of the operation, but all of the $7 million goes on this line -- is recorded on this income statement line with the offset going down below in the non-controlling interest line near the bottom of our income statement.

A little convoluted, but that's how you report it.

In terms of income taxes, our Company tax rate for the quarter came in at 34.8% versus 36.1% last year.

Our lower effective tax rate is due both to a few discrete Q3 items year over year, some of which reduced our Q3 taxes versus last year, and as well to lower income tax rates in several of the foreign countries where we operate.

For example, the statutory federal rate in Canada has come down in the last year by nearly 2 percentage points.

And we've seen similar types of things in a couple of the other countries.

So not unlike Q2 where we saw the tax rate come down a little bit year over year, we've seen this as well and to the extent that it's related to the changes in the tax rates in these countries, that's at least for now a little more permanent, discrete can go either way.

Balance sheet was part of the press release so we won't go into that detail, other than the fact that a couple of metrics that we always talk about, the accounts payable as a percent of inventories, how much of our inventories are being financed with trade payables.

What's reported on the balance sheet is all types of payables, not just merchandising, but construction payables and things like that.

So, on the balance sheet last year it showed the payables as a percent of inventories as 106% and this year 104%, so down a couple percentage points.

If you just look at merchandise payables and inventories it was 91% last year versus 92% this year.

So a little bit of a positive bump there in terms of trade payable financing.

Average inventory per warehouse last year in the quarter was $11.0 million, this year $11.7 million, so up $700,000 on average per warehouse.

This compares to higher year-over-year per warehouse inventory levels at the end of the second quarter of $1.1 million and at $1 million at the end of Q1.

So a little bit reduced from those higher levels.

The $700,000 increase per warehouse in Q3 is really spread among many merchandise categories, obviously includes also the impact of inflation year over year.

Our inventories, we believe -- we feel are in very good shape.

CapEx, in Q3 we spent $278 million last year; almost the same this year $268 million and year to date right at $900 million.

Given the expansion we've got going on in Q4 as well as some ramped up expansion in the first three or four months of fiscal '13 starting in September, we'd expect CapEx for the fiscal year '12 to be right in the $1.4 billion range.

In terms of Costco.com, currently that's -- or Costco online, that's a combination of Costco.com in the US and Costco.ca in Canada.

Our year-to-dates sales and profits are up over last year.

Our average ticket continues to be a little down given the nature of the types of products that we sell.

But our site traffic continues to grow and was up year to date versus last year and to the quarter.

Lastly, we are -- as I mentioned before, we're replatforming our dot.com site which should be completed and in operation by the end of the summer.

Also as I mentioned I think briefly, last time I was asked about it, we are in the process of getting ready to launch our first two applications for mobile, both an Apple and an Android.

Those are expected to be published and available within the next few weeks.

Next topic, expansion.

Again, for the year we expect to open a total of 17 units, one of which is a relo, so a net of 16 new units.

On the basis that we started with 592, that's a little under 3% unit growth and about 3% square footage growth.

As of Q3 end our total square footage stood at 85,885,000 square feet.

As I mentioned earlier in terms of our plans for CapEx for the year, that includes also a little bit of a ramp up in the first part of next year.

There's plenty in the pipeline next year.

We currently have 13 openings planned for the September to December period versus six that were actually opened in the comparable four-month period -- the calendar four-month period in calendar '11.

There's always a possibility that a couple of those may slip, but those are all ongoing projects that are in different stages of site work or real estate planning or construction.

In terms of common stock repurchases, in Q1 we purchased $173 million worth of stock, Q2 $145 million, in Q3 $130 million.

So -- and that would put us inception to date since the middle of '05 at 113 million shares at an average price of $57.12 a share or almost $6.5 billion we've spent on stock repurchases.

Lastly, our scheduled fourth-quarter earnings release, believe it or not, will be on Thursday, October 11.

And again, that's for the 17-week and 53-week quarter and year ended -- ending this coming September 2. With that I'll open it up to questions with Dawn and I'm going to put you on the speakerphone here, Dawn.

(Operator Instructions).

John Heinbockel, Guggenheim Securities.

Richard, a couple of things.

On the cost side the incremental IT expense -- I assume that has a finite timetable -- I'm not sure what that is, but what might that be or is there some ongoing piece of that that will be elevated?

I think you'll continue to see that.

First of all, you'll certainly continue to see that over the next year in terms of -- we've got a lot of things going on that have all started in the last year, in the last several months as well.

And I don't -- it's hard to say exactly.

We're in the process of putting our budget together for '13 in detail, but certainly it's not going to go from up a few this quarter to nothing next quarter.

It will certainly be for the next few quarters.

Whether it increases beyond there we'll have to see (multiple speakers).

Most of those activities are now in place and ongoing.

On the healthcare, is that something strange in there in terms of something that hit or a change in trend?

Because the trend had been going very much in the right direction.

Is there something temporary in they're changing that trajectory?

Yes, it's a little of both, it's a little bit of a change in trend.

Frankly, the biggest issue, and mind you US operations are roughly 70%, low 70% of our Company in terms of sales and what have you; US healthcare costs and other related health, medical, dental, vision are higher per employee than any other country.

Overall we have -- hold on one second, I'm just looking at the numbers here.

So as I mentioned, the trend is higher.

The other thing is that just the US health and benefit costs are approaching $1 billion and on this number at the end of every quarter you also actuarially look at what's called IBNR, incurred but not reported.

In other words, you know based on actuarial history that even though as of that Sunday night of a quarter end close for example you have employees and their dependents, spouses and children who have gone to the doctor or had a procedure done or services done, performed, but it hasn't been reported yet to us or the claim hasn't (inaudible).

I call that the big black box because it's an actuarial number.

That actually benefited Q's 1 and 2 by a few million dollars and hurt Q3 by $4 million or $5 million.

So again, getting a little more detail, but that alone was a few basis point swing year over year.

So I think it's a little of both, that claims have gone up.

You have a combination of there is inflation in the mid- to high-single-digit range.

You don't have a lot -- you don't have any kind of abnormal increase in participants.

The fact that we have in the last few years opened fewer warehouses in the US you don't have as many freebies, what I'll call new employees that are starting -- in this tough economy not a lot of employees have left and we are opening a lot of new units.

You don't have a lot of new employees that in the first three to six months they're not eligible for the first three to six months based on their hiring status.

So it's a combination of all those things.

But again, a lot of little things just went negative instead of positive in the quarter.

I wouldn't read as much into it as -- beyond that.

All right.

And then finally, when you think about disinflation or deflation, what's your sense of volume sensitivity to those changes in price; i.e., take dairy and produce as two obvious ones?

As the price then comes down -- and I know it's going to vary by category, big category and then subcategory, but maybe think about some of the bigger ones, what that does to volume purchases.

How much more milk are people going to buy or certain produce items or apparel for example?

Well, I think different categories are different.

I don't know how much more milk people will drink.

I think that on -- if you want apparel -- and I'm shooting from the hip over here a little bit -- if you want [apparel], if it's enough of a change to get the KS shirt down a buck that's real, because you people noticed that difference.

Where it impacts us a little bit is on some things where we have always been known, as you guys know, to hold the price.

And I mentioned on several of the quarters over the last couple years when we had huge inflation in cheese, as an example, that impacted the profitability in our food court because we held the price on pizza.

Well, good news, it's coming down, so we're still holding the price, but we're getting back to perhaps a better margin on -- I'm giving you a single data point item, but nonetheless a high-volume item.

So those types of things on some of those food commodity items help us in different ways other than driving traffic.

So all in, less inflation.

Do you think that's neutral to gross profit dollars?

I know there's tons of different moving parts, but neutral to gross profit dollars, is that fair -- versus higher inflation?

Well, given that with higher inflation we tend to lag a little, that's our nature.

I guess given a little less that's good for us, but I'd be hesitant to know which way directly it's going to go if you add up all the pieces.

I guess it can't hurt and it might help.

Okay, Thanks.

Charles Grom, Deutsche Bank.

It's been a good two to three years now that your traffic has been really strong, up over 4% most months.

And I'm just wondering when you look at ahead how critical of a metric is that for you guys internally when you guys look at the balance, your price investments over the next couple of years?

Well, I mean, it's hard to answer because we don't -- we kind of give you the awe shucks answer here.

We're always going to invest in price, but it's not something that we look to do forever.

We have always felt that we're not going to sustain 4% or 5% frequency increases.

It's still fluctuating week to week up and down a little bit -- I mean up, but how much up.

And we're still feeling pretty good about the fact of where it is.

I don't necessarily believe that those two things are linked.

I would say that one of the things that in my view has happened is we've enjoyed 5% or so -- 4% to 5% frequency increases now compounding for three years running.

In my view, and taking gasoline out of it, that people -- that just the sheer fact that they're coming a little more frequently in our view is fresh foods.

And if they're doing that there is still a limit to how many TVs they're going to buy and that extra shop doesn't get the same percentage of extra non-food discretionary items.

So to the extent it comes down a little bit you have a little bit of offset by the ticket -- [may] hopefully going up a little bit.

I'm talking theory here -- who knows.

But we feel pretty good about where we are and where we're continuing.

Okay, then just a follow-up on the gross profit margin question.

With food costs beginning to fall and then holding retail, I mean how much do you think that helped out you guys here in the second -- sorry, in the third quarter?

I don't know exactly honestly.

I still feel very strongly that the margins are the levers that we choose to control rather than what's going on third-party in most instances.

Okay.

And then just my final question is just on store growth.

When you take a multi-year view the pace of openings has really begun to slow the past few years in the 15 to 20 per year range.

It's clearly not a capital constraint given your balance sheet.

So, I'm just wondering why you guys don't think you can open up more stores.

Is at that you need to invest more in your real estate team?

Is there site issues?

If you could just flesh that out for us.

Well, one of the reasons I went as far out to tell you -- to mention on the call what we have planned for the fall is to tell you that next year is starting off stronger in terms of number of openings.

And part of that is an investment in additional real estate efforts.

We have more people landed in different countries and one of the comments I mentioned I believe on these calls as well as when people I've come out or called us that Craig has indicated -- Craig Jelinek has indicated a desire to ramp that up a little bit, but do it within the controls that we have.

So I think that part of it is the switch from international to domestic, you're having a percentage international.

There's been a longer window to get those open, the pipeline has more in it and will continue.

But I think you'll -- this sounds like a broken record, but I can't go beyond talking about the first four months of -- or the last four months of calendar '12 because it gets a little less exact.

But certainly hopefully -- and hopefully that's an indication that we'll see some improvement or increase in that number.

Great, thanks.

Dan Binder, Jefferies.

I had a couple of questions.

First on the gas business, the last couple months you've had fairly high gas prices, but the comp gallons pumped, which we sort of think of as a proxy for traffic at the pumps, seems to have flattened out a little bit.

I'm just kind of curious what your thoughts are on that.

And then the second question was related to membership.

I think you said your member growth was being in part largely driven by international.

I was wondering if you could just give us what that US comp member growth looked like.

Well, on the latter question, I don't have that detail in front of me.

Clearly it's a lot less.

Generally speaking when we have an open -- over the last couple years we have not opened a lot of international locations.

The number might be a couple percentage points to the minus or 5 percentage points to the positive depending on openings.

Generally speaking the fact that our renewal rates improved a little and we're still seeing net increases in our total membership base you're still getting -- we're still maintaining that.

But the big difference is when we opened Huntington Beach California, and I don't have the specifics, just a week or two ago, and needless to say we've got a lot of units in the greater LA market.

So a lot of those members are existing members, we're not getting as many new sign-ups.

And I don't have the exact number of how many sign-ups we had as of opening day, but it could be 3,000, it could be 8,000, but it's not 30,000 and 40,000 or 50,000 like we've had in the last -- in some of these international openings.

When I say as of opening day, it's the sign-ups that we have during the six or eight or 10 weeks prior to opening when we've got the [holding] tables and the flags and the balloons out front so people can come by and sign up in advance.

I mean the numbers are just chart popping in some of these Asian and Australian countries.

In terms of (inaudible) comp, our trends -- again, for, gosh, six, eight months ago we were enjoying some months where the gallons comps were in the 10% range, 8% to 10% range.

I believe of late it's been in the 3% range, 4% range.

And again, it's how much -- for how long can we sustain that?

The fact that gas prices have actually come down a little bit in most of the country, that swing does make some changes to that number.

I think that -- again, I don't think we can sustain tens, I feel confident we can continue to sustain numbers better than the US economy -- the US gasoline sales overall which we've done handily and we'll go from there.

Great.

And then do you have a number on dot.com sales growth for the quarter?

I don't.

We don't get about as much detail on some of the components that we used to.

Okay, thanks.

Deborah Weinswig, Citi.

Hi, Richard, this is actually Nathan Rich filling in for Deb today.

If I could start, I wanted to get your thoughts on the macro environment and how you feel about the discretionary side of your business right now?

Well, if you look at -- first of all, in terms of our discretionary business, as I think I mentioned, soft lines is up in high-single-digits, hard lines ex-electronics is in the low-single-digits, with electronics is a little lower because majors is down a little bit.

And again, this is one person's view with reading the same things many of you read.

Our view is not withstanding our relative sales strength and member sign ups and renewal rates and all that stuff, we still think it's pretty fragile out there.

We are gratified that we can get people in more frequently than we ever have.

We believe fervently that that's related not only to the extreme value proposition but to fresh foods and gas.

And so, those are things that have driven more people and more frequently.

If we got you walking by the TV or the batteries or the patio set or whatever it might be there's a chance you might buy it.

So we get a little jaded given our relative success out there, but we're not seeing any big risk of a big shoe dropping here, but we're also not seeing anything that's driving it in a big way that's sustainable right now.

You look at the housing starts and you look at these things that are improving slightly, but it's got a long way to go.

So we are -- the good news for us I think is that not withstanding -- and this is not a change from our position, we've felt this way for a few years now that there's nothing -- there's not a big engine underneath a lot of this.

But it is to our -- to the credit of the activities that -- with monetary policy and good fortune that we have in the US that things are actually growing a little bit, that's a positive.

But it's not like we're not concerned about what's going to happen tomorrow in the economy.

That being said, given that we have an extreme value proposition, that we're in and out of seasons early, we are still -- throughout this last three years and continuing, we are aggressive on discretionary items, whether it was patio furniture, which we did well with, apparel which we are doing well with, patio we did well with the seasons behind us pretty much.

But we can -- in our view we can afford to be more aggressive even given those concerns in terms of merchandising.

Great, thanks.

And then I also wanted to ask you if you think that you've gotten a benefit in your pharmacies from Walgreens being out of the Express Scripts network and if that's driving traffic to the rest of the club as well?

A little bit.

But I wouldn't say that's something that anybody has talked big around here at our budget meetings.

I'd have to look at it in more detail, but I can tell you nobody has mentioned that as being a big reason why we're getting more frequency.

I mean what I hear and what we see is when you've got fresh foods being whatever, 12%, 13%, 14% of sales and growing nicely, when you've got gas driving more people into the parking lot and a percentage of those, that's a much bigger impact than some modest improvement in the pharmacy scripts.

Great, thanks so much.

Adrianne Shapira, Goldman Sachs.

Richard, if we could just look at -- when we look at traffic and ticket we've seen the ticket has been inching down sequentially the last few quarters.

I'm just wondering, is that a function of inflation abating and how we should think about ticket if we see continued abatement across the inflationary line and would you expect that offset in volume?

Well, clearly some of it's inflation abating; some of it's increased penetration of private label.

I think that probably continues a little bit, but again -- again I use the silly example of cheese coming down, that doesn't affect the price of our pizza because we were, no pun intended, eating that increased cost and having a -- and incurring a lower margin.

And I think the same thing can be said for some of the raw material products in bakery.

So it's not all -- it's a combination of some things that help you a little bit and some things that hurt you a little bit on that.

And I guess the last thing is we're always trying to upscale the item and upsize the item.

So a follow-on to that.

As others are also seeing some of those costs coming down, what are you seeing competitively?

Obviously we just saw the quarter that Walmart put out there.

They seem very committed to the price investments; it finally seems to be working.

What are you seeing competitively as others' cheese prices are coming down?

Are they starting to come closer to you?

Thanks.

First of all, just following up on the last question and my response.

The other thing that has impacted that number at least -- not year-over-year but from the last quarter or two, gas prices have come down; and that is in that average ticket.

And also FX has impacted it a little bit.

So -- on year-over-year on FX.

Getting to the other question, again I don't want to sound cavalier about it, but our view is we are always fiercely competitive; we haven't seen on across retail every type of competitor basis any big changes of how we have to react.

We are always reacting strongly.

Certainly there is always going to be items where, whether it is Walmart or a supermarket chain or a Home Depot for that matter and Lowe's for that matter, where we are going to respond and get down, and come down in price.

But there is other things that are going the other way.

One of the things that helps us a little bit is specialty items, whether it is high-end nuts or organic items.

As we take some of our penetration in anything from ground beef to fresh turkeys to organic milk, our higher-end member -- we can, A, show a better savings on those items, and there is a little bit more margin protection on those items.

So all those -- again, there's 100 different things that are affecting it up and down.

I'm not terribly concerned about what you -- the question that you asked of how that's going to impact us.

Okay, and then lastly, just on the 53rd week, any help you could provide us on line items in terms of how the week impacts gross margin or SG&A?

It really doesn't impact it a lot.

Most all things are spread over an extra week.

So you have an extra 2% of weeks, if you will, you know 1/52, but it's not like you get a free week of rent.

All that stuff -- there's a small amount of depreciation benefit, not enough to move the needle a lot.

But the big things like vacation -- payroll, vacation, health benefits, rent -- although we don't have rent on all but 20% of our units that we lease -- utilities, all those things are -- you have an extra week of those costs in that 53rd week.

So if 1/52 is the incremental weeks, a shade better than that is what you'll see from that week.

Thank you, best of luck.

Colin McGranahan, Bernstein.

I just wanted to follow up first on the competitive question a little bit.

I think first quarter we've seen that Sam's on an ex-gas basis had a little better comp than you did on an ex-gas basis.

So just kind of curious what you think they're doing right or is it just a matter of easier compares.

And then have you seen any change out of BJ's since they've exited the public realm?

I think that they're doing a better job than they were before is what I hear from our operators to their credit.

I think they had a little easier comparison, but I'm not going to take that away from them.

On BJ's side, the only thing we've seen is they're still aggressive on openings.

They tend to -- in my view from again the last few months of budget meetings, there's not a lot of discussion at our budget meetings about pricing necessarily, but more about they're opening new units and they're tending to open these -- I forget if they're 75,000 or 85,000 square-foot units.

They're continuing to grow.

Hold on one second.

Yes, when we do -- Bob has made a good point.

When we do our weekly competitive shops and we see those at our budget meeting by region every four weeks here -- in terms of the delta of competitive like items -- commodities, Downey, paper towels, Tide detergent, soda pop, Advil, you name it -- from our own pricing versus our competition we're not seeing any big change in those deltas.

Okay, that's really helpful.

And then actually that's a nice lead-in to my second question, which is if you look at the underlying merchandise margin, I think we've had three quarters now of some moderate compression on the underlying merch margin.

Next quarter you begin to anniversary a much, much more moderate expansion and then in the November quarter you actually start hitting anniversary on compressions.

How do you think about price investment given that you're not seeing any deltas combined with traffic that has slowed down a little bit?

Well, if that -- I guess I don't want to be too assertive or aggressive here.

When we anniversary the next quarter -- you're right, it will be the fourth quarter of this anniversarying of year-over-year lower core merchandise margins.

There's no desire year to drive that in one direction.

We have always -- even during these last few quarters we've stated that we feel good about our ability to generate margin when we need to and still be very competitive.

Again, I can't predict what's going to happen in Q1, but certainly your comment is a good one.

Okay, final question.

We obviously get this on a lagged basis, but segment margins.

We've had now a couple quarters in a row where the other international segment margins are down.

Obviously it's a quarter ago, but what's driving that?

Well, I think two things, the price investment we've talk about and also in a couple of those countries like the cannibalization -- that's impacted it as well a little bit.

Okay, great.

Thank you very much, Richard.

Peter Benedict, Robert Baird.

A couple questions.

First just on May, it looks like from your reported sales numbers that maybe perhaps the month got off to a softer start.

I'm just curious as to how you've seen this month flow so far.

That's my first question.

Well, we can't -- I can't talk about May until we report May.

Okay.

And then shifting over to the accounting for the extra week.

How does that impact the MFI?

Will you get an extra week of the MFI or is the accounting different on that?

Yes, you'll get an extra week of -- it's daily.

So that extra week you'll get an extra week of membership fees.

Okay.

And then just lastly with Craig now in the CEO spot here for five months, just speak to maybe -- are there any strategic differences that you're hearing -- seeing from him versus Jim, whether it be on day-to-day stuff or even capital allocation?

You've got 13% of the market cap I think in net cash right now.

I'm just trying to understand some nuances there with him in charge right now.

Thanks.

Sure.

Well, I think Craig has summed it up best when asked the question -- he, by the way, is in Australia today looking at new sites with Jim and with Jim Murphy, our Head of International.

And Craig said it best, he said his goal is, A, not to screw things up and also to -- he certainly appreciates the culture and what we do.

The things that he's mentioned and that I've noticed as well is a desire to get a few more openings done more quickly.

Clearly his background of 30 plus years in operations, I think I talked about the fact that certainly he's focused on some efficiencies in the warehouse, the fact that the eight or so years he spent in merchandising but then handing that baton back to Doug Schutt who is now in charge of all merchandising.

And as Doug -- most of his career was spent in merchandising.

So I think those are positive things for us.

And again, I don't expect to see big changes.

I expect to, again, growth being one of them.

I think he's giving dog and Doug and Ginnie Roeglin under Doug a little bit more leeway to see what they can do with dot.com.

Although don't expect giant changes.

I mean the more significant changes to start with are replatforming and adding a couple apps.

But the focus is going to be on hot merchandise at great prices and making sure we're communicating that to our members.

And anything on the capital allocation front, Richard?

Well, the biggest thing on the capital allocation front is going to be hopefully a ramp up an expansion.

And beyond that, we just announced another higher than earnings growth increase, if you will, and looking at history of the dividend and we continue to buy stock back.

But the core issue of having a lot of cash, as you just said, isn't going to go away overnight, nor do we feel compelled to do it for the wrong reasons.

But clearly we do feel compelled to ramp up expansion and certainly we're doing that.

Okay, terrific.

Thanks so much.

Mark Miller, William Blair.

Clarification on the renewal rates.

I think you said that sequentially in the US and Canada you went up by 20 basis points and then worldwide you went up by 60 basis points.

Did I take that down correctly and I guess if that is --?

I think it was 50, 85.7 versus 86.2 and it's worldwide.

So that would imply a bigger increase in the 20% of our Company or 18% of our Company that's non-US and Canada.

Mind you that -- I mean, if you go back to the beginning of time in the US, if we signed up 100 members in year one, about 70 renewed in year two -- renewed that first time.

And in year two you also had another 100 sign ups.

In year three, the 70, that new 100 was 70 in year three, their first year of renewing; but the 70 from year two in their second year of renewing was a higher percentage than 70, let's call it high 70s maybe.

And then of course over time when you've got a lot of mature members and mature locations we're up to that 89% plus number in the US and Canada.

Given that we -- and when you're signing up so many more people in a new market, you also have an even lower than 70% rate, I think it's closer to 60% in that first year overseas.

But then we're still getting more.

I mean in Asia I think the average number of members per location is almost double the Company average.

So we're still adding a lot of people over there, albeit at -- not only a lower renewal rate.

So that's why you see that number -- that number jumping implies that, yes, you're having a bigger improvement overseas, but you started at a lower base overseas -- a lower renewal rate.

Right, okay.

I mean just on the same maturity level then would you be tracking similar to the US and Canada to (multiple speakers) for that mix effect?

Well, I'd say no because you're starting lower overseas.

If we open a new unit here in the United States it's not that new.

I mean certainly people know us even in a new state, which there aren't a lot of those anyway.

Whereas over there it's been a little bit of a positive frenzy and so you're going to get a lot more people come in to look see.

And by definition more of them not renewing in that first year.

But relative to what we've seen over the last several years in those countries, I would say that new units are starting off -- units that are two and three years old are trending better than the units that we opened eight or nine years ago that were in their first, second or third year.

Okay, most of my other questions have been answered, but one back on the gross margin.

As you have a moderation in input costs, should we think of that possibly flowing through to a little bit better margin?

And then can you just highlight what extent markdowns played a role in this quarter if it was significant?

Markdowns weren't an issue at all relative -- on a year-over-year basis.

And the first question I can't answer, because I'll get shot.

Okay, but maybe in this period as you saw moderation going through the quarter, did that help you as you progressed through the quarter?

I'm sorry, repeat the question (multiple speakers).

Some of the food costs are beginning to moderate.

Take Whole Foods, they saw an increase in their gross margin partly from that.

I guess I would think that would start to help you on the food side.

So I guess I'm curious if that's happening and if it's not, why not?

Yes, well, yes, again, I think we're always the first to go down and we're not -- frankly we're not really -- I don't think we even price shop Whole Foods.

So I don't think that's been in impact to us.

I think, again, where we're getting some margin improvement on lower commodity costs are those items where we held the price, as I mentioned in previous quarters, and it's hurt us a little bit.

The fact that we tend to lag when there's inflation, the fact that there's less inflation is an improvement on that.

Again, I think those are -- that's generally been a little better for us than not.

But we're still investing in price.

And again, it's not completely scientific; we do what we think we need to do and we think we're driving our business in the right direction and we're stronger today than we've ever been.

Okay, great.

Thanks.

Brian Nagel, Oppenheimer.

Most of my questions have been asked, but I did want to just touch on the consumer electronics category.

I look at your stores, you like others have started really pushing to the bigger screen TVs.

So I guess first question, is that true?

And then with that, what type of consumer response are you seeing with these bigger TVs?

And Richard, maybe just a comment on any thoughts on what we're seeing out of the manufacturers in the TV categories that would tempt you to put a process in place to maybe keep pricing more firm?

Our TV sales actually improved throughout the quarter.

We are driving bigger TVs, you're right there.

So the average price point of our TVs, I'm looking just at the last four weeks of the quarter, I've got some -- a little detail.

The sales -- the other selling price per TV was about the same year over year, which is -- even though there is inflation, so it's all about driving the customer towards a little bit higher screens.

I mean, we're doing 60s, 70s and even 80s now out there as well as the smaller ones.

And the second question, I'm sorry?

With some of the manufacturer efforts out there now to try to limit promotable activity in their TV sets.

Have you guys seen any impact of that or what are your thoughts going forward?

I haven't yet and what I know is what you know based on what I think I even read yesterday talking about that.

We haven't seen the big promotional stuff like $300 and $400 off on a TV on our MVM's for a few years and that went to nothing for a while and then to something and I'd say it's still something but not as good as it was a few years ago and not as bad as zero.

So not a big change yet and part of that I think is that we've gone -- we've tried to drive new TVs in towards the bigger sizes where there's perhaps a little better --.

And then if I could just -- a separate question, more of I guess a longer-term type question.

But we've talked for a while about the traffic driving benefits of the fresh food category.

I guess as you look at the Costco enterprise now how much more is there still to come from the benefit of fresh foods, I mean as far as maybe expanding the categories, putting it into more centers?

How much longer will this be an incremental driver of traffic do you think?

That's a hard question to answer.

I can tell you that, again, when we attend the monthly budget meetings and the merchants get up and talk they still are coming up with new stuff.

I mean I look at something like bakery, which a few years back after years and years of great growth was kind of slowing.

Well, guess what, Sue McConnaha, our VP of Bakery Operations, a long time employee of Costco, and her staff, they came up with a lot of new items.

And what we're doing now in that area, there's a lot of in and out items during the year, whether it's the red velvet cake or the cupcakes or -- not just having the same old great giants chocolate cake and apple pie and specialty breads, artisan breads.

So I think we've -- we do well what we do in terms of being merchants and mixing it up a little bit.

So I think there's still -- I still feel pretty confident when I hear the presentations from the various merchandising categories, particularly on the fresh food side, that we've got a lot of good things going on whether it's specialty items, high-end commodity items from around the world, organic items, things that separate us from our competition and continue to drive our business in the right direction.

The challenge is always going to be on the non-food side and I think we've -- again I look at things like apparel where we've driven more business, you see more presentation out there and we've got good comps in that.

We're always trying to drive the non-food side because we know we got you in to get the chicken and the paper towels and how can we get you to buy some more of those things.

And so, it's that ongoing focus for treasure hunt and that ongoing focus for those specialty items.

So I feel -- again, it's a qualitative answer but we feel pretty good that there's -- we've still got a lot of runway, but that's partly because Craig is and Doug are pushing that with the buyers.

Thank you.

Christopher Horvers, JPMorgan.

Question, most retailers saw some sort of lift from the weather in February and March and then some sort of moderation in April, it doesn't seem to be the case for you.

So perhaps you can share your thoughts on whether there was any pull forward and, if not, why don't you think that it happened?

Bob is helping to be here with this answer.

We don't -- it did happen, but we haven't really quantified it, it's probably not as big of an impact.

Certainly we're in 42 states, so we're across the country.

Certainly -- I mean what always surprises me that it could be raining and we're bringing out patio furniture in the end of December 26 and all through January and it's selling like heck because -- it's selling well because people -- it's a great deal and people know if they don't buy it they may not get it.

So I think we're a little bit of an unusual animal as it relates to some of the weather impacts.

Even seasonal apparel, we're bringing it in a month or two earlier than typically a traditional retailer in those areas would be.

So we don't see as much -- in my view, we don't see as much of an impact of weather even in a geographically discrete area.

But you're saying it was a small one -- there was a small impact, but it was small?

Yes, there was a small impact.

And then as you think about last year, I think gas prices peaked in May last year and started out flat to start the year and maybe up 35% year over year in May.

I mean in retrospect do you think -- is there a number you could put out there and say, you know what, in these months traffic maybe got 100 basis point lift because of the gas, but that seems to be in the rearview mirror now?

Well, we know -- it's hard to say.

We know that when gas spikes it helps our frequency and when gas subsides it hurts or doesn't help it any more -- the frequency.

We know that every person that comes in the gas station, about 30% of them do come in to shop that same day.

Whether they came to shop or to do gas, who knows.

But it's got to be a positive.

And again, I can't tell you more than that.

Fair enough.

And then finally, West Coast, it's not been in the best category for some time.

Can you talk about if weather actually had any negative impact there or is there something that you're seeing with the consumer maybe feeling better, going out to eat more, so frequency going down, something like that?

I'd be hard pressed to know the exact reasons.

I know one of the things was that California, as an example, was particularly strong comp wise if I go back when it was a standout for the first time.

So it's coming off of some very strong comparisons from a year earlier.

I can't tell you that's the only reason, but certainly that was one of the reasons.

Okay, thanks very much.

Why don't we take two more calls.

Mark Wiltamuth, Morgan Stanley.

Can you give us the number of Asian stores that are in your pipeline over the next two to three years?

And when do you think you really start ticking up in the mix of international in the store openings as you look out in the five-year period?

Well, I think if you look at this year 16 of 10 in the US and six elsewhere, I would have guessed it was 50-50.

I don't have the original budget in front of me.

Part of that is they do take longer and when they run into a little snag it's more than a month little snag.

But again, going forward I would say the trend will go from six out of 16 this year, whatever percentage that is -- six out of 16 -- 37%, I think it will be 50-50 or close to that next year and a little -- close to that and then higher than that in the year following.

But -- and that's based on what's in the pipeline now and the fact that certainly these countries are less saturated than the US.

And how about the number of them that are going to be Asian stores the next few years?

Well, our activity in those three countries started sooner and so there's more in the pipeline, so sure.

But again, I can't predict exactly how quickly, but yes.

And as I mentioned, the guys are over in Australia for the last two days looking at a bunch of sites.

So I'd throw that in the pipeline recognizing there's only three there right now.

Okay.

So you have three Asian stores in the pipeline right now in total?

No, no, no, there's three Australian locations already open and I'm sure that will ramp up given that we're looking at a lot of sites.

Same thing with Asia, there's -- I was just trying to get to that page, hold on.

We end this fiscal year with -- hold on, 30 locations between the three countries.

And my guess is we'll have gone in those three countries from the opening two or three a year in the total a couple years ago to having opened eight this fiscal year if all goes as planned.

And I would say easily more than eight over the next couple years.

So the trend is in the right direction in that regard, but, again, they take a little longer too.

But, as I mentioned earlier, we have ramped up our expansion -- our real estate personnel efforts, and so we've got more in the pipeline.

Okay, thank you.

Sean Naughton, Piper Jaffray.

So just following up on one of the economic questions on the consumer, obviously a lot of concern out there, a lot of negative headlines.

Have you seen any more exaggerated peaks and valleys in your traffic trends on a week-to-week basis in Q3 versus Q2?

And then just secondly, following up on the international side, can you comment on how that UK business did in the quarter?

I'm sorry, what was the second question?

The UK business.

Okay, well the first question, the biggest thing in the last few months has been holiday shifts, like Easter, Mother's Day even.

Those things shift a week or two weeks and it wreaks havoc with our comparisons of traffic and volume.

There have been a little bit graphically on weather, but nothing to -- that's usually in one region where if Southern California had huge rainstorms for a few days that's going to impact a two-week period down there, minus and plus.

In the UK it's come off of -- it has been -- its comps in local currency for a few years have been pretty tough for us, flat to up a little and they're up a little better than that right now.

Okay, and then I guess just following up on that, you've talked a little bit about being on the ground essentially some people in Europe over the last 12 to 18 months.

Does what's going on over there change anything with respect to the timing of anything that would potentially be in the pipeline or your thinking around that particular market?

Thanks.

I don't think it changes the time line.

If anything given that we'll be using dollars to convert into different currencies it's actually a little less expensive.

I guess the question is it's a little bit less expensive because you are also going to be there -- the economy is tough right now.

If anything it's making it a little easier for us, but I don't think it's speeding anything up for us.

And again, as our history has shown, don't expect us to go into any country and have 10 locations in operation two years out, we will open a unit or two in the first couple of years and go from there and see how it goes.

And so we have a lot of patience in that regard.

Okay, great.

Thanks for taking the question and best of luck.

Thank you.

And at this time there are no further questions.

Sir, I will now turn the presentation over to you for any closing remarks.

That's it on our side.

Bob and Jeff and I are around to answer any additional follow-up questions.

Thank you very much, have a good day.

This concludes today's third-quarter and year-to-date operating results for FY 2012 conference call.

You may now disconnect.