康菲 (COP) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the third-quarter 2026 ConocoPhillips earnings conference call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加康菲石油（ConocoPhillips）2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我是 Liz，將擔任今天電話會議的接線員。（接線員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Guy Baber, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我將把電話交給投資人關係副總裁 Guy Baber。先生，您可以開始。

Thank you, Liz, and welcome, everyone, to our third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Andy O'Brien, President and CEO; Konnie Haynes-Welsh, CFO and Senior Vice President of Digital and Transformation; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48 and Global HSE; and Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and Technical Functions.

謝謝你，Liz，也歡迎各位參加我們 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與會的有康菲石油領導團隊的多位成員，包括總裁暨執行長 Andy O'Brien；財務長暨數位與轉型資深副總裁 Konnie Haynes-Welsh；美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）暨全球健康、安全與環境（HSE）執行副總裁 Nick Olds；以及全球營運與技術職能執行副總裁 Kirk Johnson。

Andy and Konnie will kick off the call today with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions. For the Q&A, we will be taking one question per caller, consistent with our normal practice.

Andy 與 Konnie 將以開場致詞為今天的電話會議揭開序幕，之後團隊將回答各位的提問。在問答環節，我們將依照一貫作法，每位來電者僅提一個問題。

A few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website. Second, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. Finally, we will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website.

先快速提醒幾點。第一，隨著今天的新聞稿，我們也發布了補充財務資料與簡報投影片，您可在投資人關係網站上找到。第二，在本次電話會議中，我們將基於目前的預期發表前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能因今日新聞稿及我們定期向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）申報文件中所述因素而有所不同。最後，今天我們也會提及部分非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。與最接近之對應 GAAP 指標的調節表可在今日新聞稿及我們網站上查閱。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy.

接下來，我把電話交給 Andy。

Thank you, Guy, and thank you to everyone for joining our third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. For today's prepared remarks, I want to put our strong third-quarter results in perspective and describe how we're uniquely positioned to create long-term value. Konnie will then recap a few third-quarter highlights, cover fourth-quarter and full-year guidance items, and provide some early directional color on 2027.

謝謝你，Guy，也感謝各位參加我們 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。在今天的事先準備發言中，我想把我們強勁的第三季成果放在更大的脈絡中，並說明我們如何具備獨特優勢來創造長期價值。接著 Konnie 將回顧第三季幾項重點，說明第四季與全年指引項目，並就 2027 年提供一些初步方向性的觀察。

As you all know, we're in the midst of a compelling inflection. The way we demonstrate progress towards this inflection is by delivering results quarter after quarter, which serve as proof points for the trajectory that we're on. And our third-quarter results were just that, another strong proof point, both financially and operationally.

各位都知道，我們正處於一個引人注目的轉折點。我們展現朝向這個轉折點邁進的方式，就是一季接一季地交出成果，作為我們所處軌跡的佐證。而我們第三季的結果正是如此——無論在財務或營運面，都是另一個強而有力的佐證。

Financially, we again exceeded expectations on both earnings and cash flows. We returned $3.4 billion to shareholders. And today, we announced an 11% increase in our quarterly dividend. Operationally, the Lower 48 continues to deliver and we continue to capture meaningful improvements across our best-in-class position, including record Permian completion efficiency. At Willow, we're progressing critical path items and remain on track for an early 2029 startup. In Canada, we brought another pad online at Surmont, ahead of schedule and under budget. Finally, in our commercial LNG portfolio, we expanded our offtake to 13 million tonnes per annum. In addition to this being a strong quarter, these results reflect our continued commitment to ConocoPhillips' value proposition and the priorities that are foundational to our company.

在財務方面，我們的獲利與現金流再次雙雙超出預期。我們向股東回饋了 34 億美元。此外，今天我們宣布將季度股利提高 11%。在營運方面，美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）持續交出成果，我們也在同級最佳的競爭地位上持續取得具實質意義的改善，包括二疊紀（Permian）完井效率創下紀錄。在 Willow 專案，我們正推進關鍵路徑項目，並仍按計畫於 2029 年初投產。在加拿大，我們在 Surmont 又有一個井場（pad）提前上線且低於預算。最後，在我們的商業 LNG 投資組合方面，我們將承購量（offtake）擴大至每年 1,300 萬噸。除了這是一個強勁的季度之外，這些成果也反映我們對康菲石油價值主張以及公司基石優先事項的持續承諾。

Since becoming CEO, I've been clear that our value proposition and our priorities aren't changing. I believe in them and helped shape them over the last decade. They are clear, consistent, and durable. And they’ve served us well. But I've been equally clear: consistency must not be confused with complacency. Our focus is on raising the bar on our execution. We have the most talented employees and the highest-quality portfolio in the industry. These are the foundations upon which we expect to deliver even stronger performance.

自我擔任執行長以來，我一直很清楚地表示，我們的價值主張與優先事項不會改變。我相信這些原則，並在過去十年協助塑造它們。它們清晰、一致且具持久性。而且它們一直讓我們受益良多。但我同樣清楚：一致性不應被誤解為自滿。我們的重點是提高執行標準。我們擁有業界最優秀的人才與最高品質的資產組合。這些是我們預期能交出更強勁表現的基礎。

And we're already seeing the proof points, with clear delivery against each of our five capital allocation priorities. Priority 1 and 2 are to pay and grow the dividend at a rate competitive with the top quartile of the S&P 500. Our 11% dividend increase this quarter continues to demonstrate our commitment.

而我們已經看到這些佐證，並且在我們五項資本配置優先事項上都有明確的落實成果。優先事項 1 與 2 是支付並成長股利，其成長速度要能與標普 500 指數前四分位數公司具競爭力。本季股利提高 11% 再次展現我們的承諾。

Priority 3 is to maintain an A-rated balance sheet. We ended the quarter with over $10 billion of cash and short-term investments, as well as over $1 billion of liquid long-term investments.

優先事項 3 是維持 A 級評等的資產負債表。本季結束時，我們持有超過 100 億美元的現金與短期投資，以及超過 10 億美元的高流動性長期投資。

Priority 4 is to return a significant percentage of our CFO to shareholders. We returned $3.4 billion this quarter, including $2.4 billion of buybacks, and we remain on track to return 45% this year. You should expect buybacks to trend higher in the fourth quarter as we deliver on this annual objective.

優先事項 4 是將我們營運現金流（CFO）的相當比例回饋給股東。本季我們回饋了 34 億美元，其中包含 24 億美元的庫藏股回購；我們仍按計畫在今年回饋 45%。隨著我們落實這項年度目標，您應可預期第四季回購金額將呈上升趨勢。

And priority 5 is enhanced underlying returns through rigorous portfolio management and investing in our advantaged portfolio. We recently completed our $5 billion divestment program, including $1.6 billion of proceeds this quarter. And of course, we'll remain guided by our low cost of supply framework as we invest with discipline to improve returns.

而優先事項 5 是透過嚴謹的資產組合管理，以及投資於我們具優勢的資產組合，提升基礎報酬。我們近期完成了 50 億美元的資產處分計畫，其中本季取得 16 億美元的處分收入。當然，在我們以紀律投資以提升報酬的同時，仍將以低供應成本（low cost of supply）框架作為指引。

Our focus this year and beyond is to stay true to our priorities and raise the bar on execution as we deliver on our compelling returns-focused value proposition. That value proposition for ConocoPhillips features three distinct pillars.

我們今年以及未來的重點，是忠於我們的優先事項並提高執行標準，持續落實我們以報酬為核心、極具吸引力的價值主張。康菲石油的價值主張包含三個明確的支柱。

First, as I mentioned a moment ago, we're well underway towards a peer-leading free cash flow inflection of $7 billion by 2029. That would approximately double our 2025 free cash flow at $70 a barrel WTI price. And between now and then, we retain significant upside from higher prices and wider LNG spreads, given the unhedged oil and LNG torque in our portfolio.

第一，如我剛才提到的，我們正穩步邁向同業領先的自由現金流轉折點：到 2029 年增加 70 億美元。在 WTI 每桶 70 美元的價格下，這將使我們 2025 年的自由現金流約增加一倍。而在此之前，鑑於我們資產組合中未避險的原油與 LNG 槓桿（torque），在油價走高與 LNG 價差擴大時，我們仍保有顯著上行空間。

But 2029 isn't the final destination. The depth, diversity and quality of our portfolio supports continued CFO and free cash flow growth well beyond 2029, doing so at a structurally lower reinvestment rate. That's the second pillar of our value proposition: differentiated, capital-efficient free cash flow growth well into the next decade.

但 2029 年並非終點。我們資產組合的深度、多元性與品質，支持營運現金流（CFO）與自由現金流在 2029 年之後仍能持續成長，且可在結構性更低的再投資率下達成。這就是我們價值主張的第二個支柱：具差異化、資本效率高的自由現金流成長，延伸至下一個十年。

And the third pillar is that our CFO and free cash flow growth translates directly to sustainable growth in our shareholder distributions via our percentage of CFO return of capital framework, which has averaged 45% over the last decade. This pillar ensures investors participate in the upside through a combination of top-quartile S&P 500 dividend growth and through the cycle share buybacks.

第三個支柱是，我們的營運現金流（CFO）與自由現金流成長，會透過「以 CFO 回饋資本比例」的框架，直接轉化為股東配息的可持續成長；過去十年該比例平均為 45%。此支柱確保投資人能透過兩種方式參與上行：一是標普 500 前四分位數的股利成長，二是穿越景氣循環的股票回購。

Bottom line on what's ahead: a peer-leading free cash flow inflection with differentiated long-term growth thereafter and sustainably higher distributions. That adds up to a truly distinct value proposition, and one that is not easily replicated, because it's underpinned by the deepest, most durable upstream portfolio in the sector, with over 20 years of low cost of supply inventory in the Lower 48, complemented by our deep, diverse and high-quality Alaska and international portfolio.

總結未來展望：同業領先的自由現金流轉折點、其後具差異化的長期成長，以及可持續提高的股東回饋。這些構成真正獨特的價值主張，而且不易被複製，因為其背後支撐的是本產業最深厚、最具韌性的上游資產組合：在美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）擁有超過 20 年的低供應成本庫存，並由我們深厚、多元且高品質的阿拉斯加與國際資產組合相互補強。

With that, I'd like to welcome Konnie to the call to cover some third-quarter highlights, cover fourth-quarter and full-year guidance items, and provide some early directional color on 2027.

接下來，我歡迎 Konnie 加入電話會議，說明第三季的一些重點、第四季與全年指引項目，並就 2027 年提供一些初步方向性的觀察。

Thank you, Andy. I will begin with highlights from our third-quarter performance. We produced 2.302 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. We reported $3.27 per share in adjusted earnings and $7.2 billion of cash from operations. After $3.1 billion of capital expenditures, that translated to approximately $4 billion of free cash flow generation.

謝謝你，Andy。我先從我們第三季的表現重點開始。我們的產量為每日 230.2 萬桶油當量。我們公布調整後每股盈餘為 3.27 美元，營運活動現金流為 72 億美元。在 31 億美元的資本支出之後，約轉化為 40 億美元的自由現金流。

Share repurchases stepped up again this quarter to $2.4 billion. With $1 billion of ordinary dividends, that brought our total third-quarter shareholder distributions to $3.4 billion. We ended the quarter with $10.4 billion of cash and an additional $1.1 billion of liquid, long-term investments. Our net debt to CFO ratio improved to 0.5 times, underscoring the strength of our A-rated balance sheet. In short, we delivered on every front, proof that we are raising the bar on execution.

本季股票回購再度加碼至 24 億美元。加上 10 億美元的普通股股利，使我們第三季對股東的總回饋達到 34 億美元。季末我們持有 104 億美元現金，另有 11 億美元具流動性的長期投資。我們的淨負債對 CFO 比率改善至 0.5 倍，凸顯我們獲 A 級評等資產負債表的實力。總之，我們在各方面都交出成果，證明我們正在把執行標準再往上提高。

Turning to our outlook, our key full-year guidance items remain unchanged. For the fourth quarter, we expect production to average between 2.320 million and 2.360 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. That would put our full-year production right around 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

談到展望，我們全年主要指引項目維持不變。第四季我們預期產量平均介於每日 232.0 萬至 236.0 萬桶油當量。這將使我們全年產量約落在每日 230 萬桶油當量左右。

We expect another quarter of sequential growth in our Lower 48 production. Impacts from turnarounds are expected to be flat versus the third quarter. And our guidance accounts for a range of potential outcomes in Qatar, where production remains dependent on conditions in that region.

我們預期美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）的產量將再出現一季的連續成長。歲修（turnarounds）的影響預期與第三季持平。我們的指引也納入卡達可能出現的各種結果區間，當地產量仍取決於該區域的情勢。

For capital, we expect modestly higher sequential investment in the fourth quarter. This reflects the spending profile we previously outlined for the Lower 48 and our typical ramp in Alaska, ahead of our winter construction season and exploration campaign.

在資本方面，我們預期第四季的投資將較前一季小幅增加。這反映我們先前對 Lower 48 所說明的支出曲線，以及阿拉斯加在冬季施工季與探勘活動展開前的典型拉升。

Across the company, structural cost reductions continue to drive improvements in our adjusted operating costs. And we see the benefit of those reductions as they are fully offsetting the impacts from inflation in a higher commodity price environment.

在全公司範圍內，結構性成本降低持續推動我們調整後營運成本的改善。我們也看到這些降本效益，已在較高商品價格環境下，完全抵銷通膨帶來的影響。

Finally, we remain on track to return 45% of our CFO to shareholders this year, with buybacks expected to trend higher in the fourth quarter.

最後，我們仍按計畫在今年把 CFO 的 45% 回饋給股東，且預期第四季回購將呈現走高趨勢。

Let me turn now to a preliminary 2027 outlook. While it's still too early for detailed guidance, our high-level framework is fully aligned with the priorities Andy just laid out. We anticipate capital spending to be modestly lower year-on-year, consistent with the multi-year decline we outlined.

接著我談一下 2027 年的初步展望。雖然現在要提供詳細指引仍為時過早，但我們的高層次框架與 Andy 剛才提出的優先事項完全一致。我們預期資本支出將較去年小幅下降，符合我們先前所說明的多年期下行趨勢。

Importantly, that lower capital delivers growth. We expect to see another year of low-single-digit underlying production growth, driven by the Lower 48. Per-unit operating costs will trend lower again as our sustainable cost reductions and ongoing efficiency improvements continue to offset inflation. And again, our objective will be to return 45% of CFO to shareholders, extending our long-term track record.

重要的是，較低的資本仍能帶來成長。我們預期在 Lower 48 的帶動下，基礎產量將再出現一年低個位數成長。隨著我們可持續的降本與持續的效率提升繼續抵銷通膨，單位營運成本將再度走低。同樣地，我們的目標是把 CFO 的 45% 回饋給股東，延續我們長期的紀錄。

This 2027 outlook is another step forward as we continue to deliver on our value proposition: a peer-leading free cash flow inflection, differentiated long-term free cash flow growth beyond the inflection, and sustainably higher shareholder distributions, all of which is underpinned by our deep, durable, and diverse portfolio.

這份 2027 年展望是我們持續兌現價值主張的又一步：同業領先的自由現金流拐點、拐點之後具差異化的長期自由現金流成長，以及可持續提高的股東回饋；而這一切都以我們深厚、耐久且多元的資產組合為基礎。

That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now turn it back to the operator to begin the Q&A.

以上是我們事先準備的發言。接下來我把時間交回給會議主持人，開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Betty Jiang, Barclays.

(主持人指示) Barclays 的 Betty Jiang。

Andy, your comment earlier about the free cash flow outlook through the end of decade really stood out. And in the last few years, we have heard a lot about the $7 billion inflection by 2029, but the visibility of the portfolio gives you a much longer duration beyond that. So can you just walk us through what that looks like, how you think about that durability, and visibility of that growth, and what part of the portfolio is really driving it?

Andy，你先前提到到本十年末的自由現金流展望，這點非常引人注目。而在過去幾年，我們聽到很多關於 2029 年前 70 億美元拐點的說法，但你們的資產組合能見度讓你們在那之後還有更長的延續性。所以你能否帶我們走一遍那會是什麼樣子、你如何看待那種耐久性與成長能見度，以及究竟是資產組合中的哪一部分在真正驅動它？

Betty, thanks for the question. I thought it was important today to sort of put a bit more meat on the bone of sort of what does come after 2029. I just said in our prepared remarks, I think it's well understood, sort of the first pillar in terms of our inflection of $7 billion to 2029.

Betty，謝謝你的問題。我認為今天很重要的是，對 2029 年之後會發生什麼，補充更多具體內容。我剛在準備好的發言中提到，我想大家都很清楚，第一個支柱就是到 2029 年自由現金流拐點達 70 億美元。

But what I wanted to really lay out with that second pillar, it's probably the question that I've been asked the most since becoming CEO: what happens after the inflection? And what I wanted to try and make sure is very clear to everybody is that our free cash flow growth doesn't stop at that inflection. The longer-term opportunities in our portfolio really give us sort of, I think, a really unique value proposition. And that was the second pillar I was trying to describe, that differentiated CFO and free cash flow growth through the next decade, but I can't emphasize this enough, at a structurally lower reinvestment rate than where we are today.

但我真正想透過第二個支柱說清楚的是，這大概是我自從擔任 CEO 以來被問最多的問題：拐點之後會怎樣？我想讓大家非常清楚的是，我們的自由現金流成長不會在那個拐點停止。我們資產組合中的長期機會，確實帶給我們一個我認為非常獨特的價值主張。而我試圖描述的第二個支柱，就是在下一個十年中具差異化的 CFO 與自由現金流成長；但我再怎麼強調都不為過的是，這是在結構性再投資率低於我們目前水準的情況下達成。

Then you asked sort of what's driving that. It really is underpinned by the unique sort of strength of our portfolio. And it does all start with our Lower 48 position, where we are clearly the U.S. unconventional inventory leader. We've got over two decades of high-quality Tier 1 inventory across our Lower 48 portfolio. That's headlined by over 20 years of low cost of supply Permian inventory. We have core positions of scale across the four liquids-rich unconventional basins. Again, we think that's a power that nobody else has. And then when we combine that together with our deep, diverse, high-quality Alaska and International positions, it really complements that.

接著你問是什麼在驅動它。這確實是以我們資產組合獨特的強項為基礎。而一切都從我們在 Lower 48 的布局開始，我們顯然是美國非常規資源庫存（inventory）的領導者。在我們的 Lower 48 資產組合中，我們擁有超過二十年的高品質一級（Tier 1）庫存。其中最突出的，是超過 20 年、供應成本低的二疊紀（Permian）庫存。我們在四個以液體為主的非常規盆地都擁有具規模的核心部位。我們再次認為，這種優勢是其他人所沒有的。而當我們再把這些與我們深厚、多元且高品質的阿拉斯加與國際資產結合起來，就能形成很好的互補。

And I'd use Alaska as one of my examples. If you just fast forward to 2030, we'll have Willow online, we'll have built a new hub, and then we'll be in a position where we'll be looking to tie satellites back into Willow. That's the whole point. When you have a hub, we can bring more back into it. And those tie-ins back to Willow will be some of the most capital-efficient and low cost of supply opportunities in our portfolio. So that's one example.

我以阿拉斯加作為其中一個例子。如果你把時間快轉到 2030 年，我們將讓 Willow 上線、建成一個新的樞紐（hub），接著我們就能把周邊衛星資產回接到 Willow。這就是重點。當你有一個樞紐時，我們就能把更多產量回送到那裡。而這些回接到 Willow 的連接專案，將會是我們資產組合中資本效率最高、供應成本最低的一些機會。這是一個例子。

Another example would be Surmont and Montney in Canada. We have a tremendous resource base there that's only going to increase in value over time. It's already one of the sort of the more capital-efficient assets we have, with Surmont. And with some of the new fiscals up in Canada, some incremental investment there may start to look more attractive. Again, with the Middle East and Libya, that's another good example of high-quality, long-duration opportunities that we have with, again, a low cost of supply.

另一個例子是加拿大的 Surmont 與 Montney。我們在那裡擁有龐大的資源基礎，且其價值只會隨時間增加。以 Surmont 而言，它已經是我們較具資本效率的資產之一。而隨著加拿大推出一些新的財稅制度（fiscals），在那裡增加一些額外投資可能會開始變得更具吸引力。同樣地，中東與利比亞也是另一個很好的例子：我們擁有高品質、長週期的機會，而且同樣具備低供應成本。

So this isn't meant to be an exhaustive list, Betty, but it sort of highlights the diversity of opportunities we already have captured in our portfolio. And I thought it was really important to emphasize to everybody that those opportunities can support growth through the next decade. And again, it's at a structurally lower reinvestment rate.

Betty，這並不是要列出一份完整清單，但它凸顯了我們資產組合中已經涵蓋的機會之多元性。我也認為非常重要的是向大家強調，這些機會能支持我們在下一個十年持續成長。而且同樣地，是在結構性較低的再投資率之下。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

Devin McDermott，摩根士丹利。

So I wanted to shift over to, Andy, some of your comments on shareholder returns, and it's great to see the large dividend increase. And I wanted to think through how you're looking at the outlook, given the free cash flow inflection, and also your comments just now on the durability of the portfolio. And I guess, specifically, when you think about your point and commitment to sustainably higher distributions, does that include keeping returns well above the 30% CFO baseline? That's question 1.

所以我想把話題轉到，Andy，你對股東回報的一些評論，很高興看到股利大幅提高。我也想在自由現金流出現拐點的背景下，並結合你剛才對投資組合韌性的評論，梳理一下你如何看待前景。我想更具體地問，當你談到並承諾可持續地提高分配時，這是否包括讓回報長期維持在高於 30% CFO 基準的水準？這是第一個問題。

And question 2 is like, how do you think about the mix between dividends and buybacks evolving over time? It would seem like you have plenty of runway to continue to push that dividend payout higher, especially as your breakeven and reinvestment rate falls. So how are you thinking about the mix there over time?

第二個問題是，你如何看待股利與庫藏股回購之間的組合，隨時間推移會如何演變？看起來你們有很大的空間可以繼續把股利支付率推得更高，特別是在你們的損益兩平點與再投資率下降之際。所以你們如何思考這個組合在時間上的變化？

That really is kind of a perfect segue from sort of where I was just chatting with Betty on the -- really, the third pillar I was trying to outline is the -- is that differentiated return of capital framework.

這其實正好承接我剛才和 Betty 在談的內容——我試圖概述的第三個支柱，確實就是那個具差異化的資本回饋框架。

So it's really important to us that our framework is a percentage of CFO. So as we grow our CFO, our distributions grow. And specifically, I described how we can do that. The fact that we're going to be at a lower reinvestment rate, so we'll have a lower reinvestment rate, our balance sheet is in a great position, so we've already got a really strong balance sheet, we're going to grow our CFO, and then that gives us all the flexibility to, as you say, think about our dividend and the growth in our dividend. You saw the evidence of that again this quarter with the 11% increase.

所以對我們來說非常重要的是，我們的框架是以 CFO 的百分比為基礎。因此，隨著我們的 CFO 成長，我們的分配也會成長。而且我也具體說明了我們如何做到這一點。我們將處於較低的再投資率，因此再投資率會更低；我們的資產負債表狀況非常好，已經擁有非常強健的資產負債表；我們會讓 CFO 成長，而這也讓我們具備所有彈性，正如你所說，去思考我們的股利以及股利的成長。你在本季再次看到這一點的證據——股利提高了 11%。

We're a firm believer in a track record of top-quartile S&P 500 growth. That has credibility. And that's the key word. It has to have credibility behind it that people see us being affordable. And we think that our -- the cash flow generation of our company demonstrates just how affordable that is.

我們堅信要建立標普 500 指數中前四分位數的成長紀錄。那是有公信力的。而這就是關鍵字。它背後必須有公信力，讓大家看到我們負擔得起。我們認為，公司現金流的創造能力正好證明了這件事有多麼負擔得起。

And then as we go forward, it's -- I apologize for the cliche here, but it's about making the pie bigger. As you make the CFO pie bigger, there's more for distributions, and especially if we’re at a low reinvestment rate. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we've averaged now a 45% distribution over the last decade. And I see no reason why we wouldn't be looking for the similar kind of thing going forward, particularly as our reinvestment rate comes down.

接下來往前看——我先為這句陳腔濫調道歉——重點在於把餅做大。當你把 CFO 這塊餅做大，就有更多可以用來分配，尤其是在我們處於低再投資率的情況下。而且如我在事先準備的發言中所說，過去十年我們平均的分配比例已達 45%。我看不出未來我們為什麼不會尋求類似的水準，特別是在我們的再投資率下降之際。

Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Hanold，RBC 資本市場。

I appreciate the early context around 2027 in the capital, I was wondering -- with the understanding that you all will get more fulsome updates next year. Can you give us a sense of how you're able to offset and what do you think about inflation right now into next year? And if you could give any kind of high-level view on how to think about the changes in major capital spending next year and maybe into 2028?

感謝你們先就 2027 年的資本支出提供一些背景。我想問——在理解你們明年會提供更完整更新的前提下——你能否讓我們了解你們如何抵消成本壓力，以及你們目前如何看待通膨延續到明年的情況？另外，你能否從高層次的角度談談，明年主要資本支出變化該如何理解，甚至延伸到 2028 年？

Scott, I'll touch on sort of most of your questions here and -- good morning. And then I'll ask Kirk maybe to jump in specifically on the inflation side of it.

Scott，我會先回應你大部分的問題——早安。然後我會請 Kirk 針對通膨的部分特別補充。

But I think how we do this is really important. As we laid out in our prepared remarks, we're giving sort of some high-level framework for you that's really consistent with the framework that we've been outlining as part of our free cash flow inflection. But I don't want to get lost in sort of what we're saying here. We're saying lower capital, low-single-digit underlying production growth, lower unit costs, and about a 45% CFO return to shareholders.

但我認為我們如何做到這些非常重要。正如我們在事先準備的發言中所闡述，我們提供給你的是一個高層次的框架，且與我們在自由現金流拐點議題中一直在說明的框架高度一致。但我不希望大家迷失在我們這裡的措辭細節。我們要表達的是：更低的資本支出、基礎產量低個位數成長、更低的單位成本，以及約 45% 的 CFO 回饋給股東。

And I think what's really important is, how can we do that? And again, a lot of it comes back to our position in the Lower 48. Our track record shows year in, year out that as we drive steady-state activity, we're able to show production growth with less capital. And we expect the exact same thing in 2027. And the way we do that is because we're working with our Tier 1 inventory and we're combining that with continued D&C efficiencies we're seeing. I think that's a huge advantage that we have over some others.

我認為真正重要的是：我們如何做到？同樣地，很多都回到我們在美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）的布局。我們的歷史紀錄年復一年顯示，當我們維持穩態作業活動時，我們能以更少的資本展現產量成長。我們預期在 2027 年也會完全一樣。我們之所以能做到，是因為我們運用我們的第一級（Tier 1）庫存，並結合我們持續看到的鑽井與完井（D&C）效率提升。我認為這是我們相較於其他一些公司的一大優勢。

And then when you compare -- you add with that, you look at things that I described in my prepared remarks, like Surmont, we just brought another pad on at Surmont. That should basically continue to drive growth for us next year in Canada, very -- again, very, very efficiently, that pad is just coming on. We'll start to see LNG coming from NFE next year. We'll also see LNG coming from Port Arthur, and now that one won't count towards production, obviously, but it certainly counts towards the cash flows.

此外，當你把這些與我在事先準備的發言中提到的項目結合來看，例如 Surmont——我們剛在 Surmont 又啟用了一個新的井場（pad）。那基本上應該能在加拿大於明年持續推動我們的成長，而且非常——再次強調，非常有效率，因為那個井場才剛投產。明年我們也會看到來自 NFE 的 LNG。我們也會看到來自 Port Arthur 的 LNG；當然，那個不會計入產量，但它確實會計入現金流。

So they are the kind of things when you combine our Lower 48 and then the things that we have in our Alaska and International portfolio, that allows us to drive that production growth but off of lower capital, all consistent with the inflection we've been talking about.

因此，當你把我們在 Lower 48 的業務，與我們在阿拉斯加及國際投資組合中的項目結合起來看，這讓我們能在較低資本支出的情況下推動產量成長，並且完全符合我們一直在談的那個拐點。

And I do want to take a moment as well to also just highlight on our operating costs. We fully expect another year of lower unit operating costs next year. And that's even with the -- some of the inflation that we're seeing from higher commodity prices. And the way we're doing that is we're remaining focused on capturing additional efficiencies, and we're driving structural cost changes.

我也想花點時間強調一下我們的營運成本。我們完全預期明年還會再有一年單位營運成本下降。即使在我們因大宗商品價格走高而看到一些通膨的情況下也是如此。我們做到這點的方式，是持續專注於取得更多效率提升，並推動結構性的成本變革。

Now to your specifics around sort of, can I give a bit more color around sort of breakdowns of where it is, I think that's probably a conversation for a later date when we give the actual guidance out. But today, I wanted to just sort of to shape for you sort of how we can deliver sort of that production growth off of a lower capital.

至於你更具體的問題——能否再多提供一些細節、例如各項拆分——我認為那可能要等到我們發布實際指引時再談。但今天我想先為你勾勒的是，我們如何能在較低資本支出的情況下交付那樣的產量成長。

And then to the other part of your question on inflation, maybe Kirk can just touch on that one for us.

至於你問題的另一部分、關於通膨，也許 Kirk 可以替我們補充一下。

Certainly, as we've been all watching, the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt energy, as well as the better part of the global trade flows. And that's continued to drive inflation across what we describe as many of the flow-through consumables into our business, the obvious are fuel, logistics, and chemicals. And so while inflation in these categories is pretty noteworthy, it's been double digits in some cases, it's been a small component of our total cost structure. And so as a result, in aggregate, we're seeing pretty modest, read into that low single-digit inflation.

當然。如同我們一直在關注的，中東持續的衝突仍在擾亂能源市場，也擾亂了全球貿易流動的很大一部分。這也持續推升我們所稱的許多「傳導型」消耗品的通膨；最明顯的包括燃料、物流與化學品。因此，雖然這些類別的通膨相當顯著，在某些情況下達到兩位數，但它們在我們總成本結構中所占比重不大。因此，整體而言，我們看到的是相當溫和的通膨——你可以把它理解為低個位數的通膨。

But again, I think it's really important that I point out, it's being more than offset by the amount of efficiencies that we're realizing in the development, the drilling and completions, as well as operationally within that entire space. And clearly, Andy was addressing that in how we're able to accomplish much of this.

但我再次強調，非常重要的一點是：這些通膨已被我們在開發、鑽井與完井，以及整個營運面所實現的效率提升所大幅抵消。而且很明顯，Andy 也在說明我們如何能完成其中的許多事項。

In the Lower 48, nationally, we're seeing increased activity, much of that's concentrated in some of the smaller operators, and that is, in fact, tightening capacity, especially across the oilfield services space. Super-spec rigs, as well as frac equipment, utilizations have been really quite high, better than 90% or 75%, respectively, across those two.

在美國本土 48 州的全國範圍內，我們看到活動增加，其中很大一部分集中在一些較小的營運商，這確實正在收緊產能，特別是在油田服務領域。超規格鑽機以及壓裂設備的使用率一直都相當高，這兩者分別都優於 90% 或 75%。

But again, hear from us here, bottom line, we're watching inflationary trends here pretty closely. But we've been really pleased with the fact that across our portfolio, we've been able to offset that through improvements in the company.

但再次強調，請各位聽清楚我們的重點：我們正非常密切地關注通膨趨勢。不過我們也很高興的是，在我們的整體資產組合中，我們已能透過公司內部的改善來抵銷這些影響。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta，高盛。

Congratulations to you both on your first call in this new capacity. I was wondering, Andy, if you can really dig into Willow. This is such an important year for the project, particularly with the vessels in Corpus. So how are we tracking on both scope and on cost? And maybe you can give us the mark-to-market on how it's going.

恭喜兩位以這個新身分參加第一次電話會議。Andy，我想請你深入談談 Willow。這對該專案來說是非常關鍵的一年，尤其是 Corpus 的船舶相關作業。所以在工作範疇與成本兩方面，我們目前進度如何？也許你可以給我們一個最新的即時評估，說明目前進展狀況。

Yes, morning, Neil, and thank you, and say, I should have done welcoming Konnie to her first call, too.

是的，早安，Neil，謝謝你；另外我也應該先歡迎 Konnie 參加她的第一次電話會議。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝你，Neil。

So I appreciate you doing that, Neil. Maybe I'll ask Kirk to get us started on Willow, and I can maybe add a bit after what Kirk just stepped through the details.

所以我很感謝你這麼說，Neil。也許我先請 Kirk 先就 Willow 開場，我在 Kirk 把細節說明完之後再補充一些。

Hi, Neil, certainly, we continue to be pleased with the progress that we're seeing on the Willow project. We're, as you know, past the halfway point in the overall aggregate of the project, and we remain steadfast in our confidence here on first oil in early part of 2029.

嗨，Neil，當然，我們對 Willow 專案目前看到的進展仍然感到滿意。如你所知，整體專案的累計進度已經超過一半，我們也依然堅定地有信心在 2029 年初實現首次出油。

Also, as you heard from me in the last quarterly call, we were able to successfully wrap up all the critical infrastructure, civil scope specifically there on the North Slope here in this last winter season. And so of course, naturally, now we're turning our focus to the next set of milestones in front of us.

另外，如同我在上一季電話會議中提到的，我們已在上一個冬季施工期，成功完成了所有關鍵基礎設施，特別是北坡地區的土木工程範疇。因此，接下來我們自然會把重點轉向眼前下一組里程碑。

And when I -- if I stay on the North Slope, what we're looking at is continued progress and ultimately, completion on the infrastructure that's critical for us to begin drilling operations as early as next year. And then, of course, in this upcoming winter construction season, we'll also be progressing the production necessary, pipeline construction, again, on a pretty rapidly approaching winter season here for us.

如果我繼續談北坡，我們目前關注的是持續推進，並最終完成對我們至關重要的基礎設施，使我們最早能在明年開始鑽井作業。當然，在即將到來的冬季施工期，我們也會推進必要的生產設施與管線建設；對我們而言，冬季施工期很快就要到了。

Of high importance to us, though, is our process module fabrication. Of course, that's occurring on the Gulf Coast. And we've just exceeded the 75% completion mark, and that's an important one for us as we're looking down a pathway here to wrap up that fabrication in the second quarter. And that's important because in the summer months, we'll be sea lifting those modules from Gulf Coast to Alaska. And then, of course, we've got to make sure we're ready to receive those in Alaska in the summer and the fall.

不過，對我們而言高度重要的是製程模組的製造。當然，這部分是在墨西哥灣沿岸進行。我們剛剛已超過 75% 的完工里程碑，這很重要，因為我們正朝著在第二季完成製造的路徑前進。這也很重要，因為在夏季月份，我們將把這些模組以海運吊裝方式從墨西哥灣沿岸運往阿拉斯加。接著，我們當然必須確保在阿拉斯加於夏季與秋季具備接收條件。

So again, I'll just -- I'll close by acknowledging that, in fact, we do start drilling next year, and that's important to build a production-ready inventory so that we can have a strong ramp up in the early part of 2029 and across that full year. So again, confident in what we've described in the past as far as capital and our schedule looks. So really quite pleased with how that project continues to progress.

所以我再補充一句作結：我們確實會在明年開始鑽井，這對建立可投產的庫存非常重要，才能在 2029 年初以及該全年實現強勁的產量爬坡。因此，就資本支出與時程而言，我們仍對先前所描述的內容充滿信心。所以我們對該專案持續推進的情況感到非常滿意。

Thanks, Kirk. And I would just emphasize, Neil, that everything is on track for early 2029 first production.

謝謝你，Kirk。我也想強調，Neil，一切都按計畫進行，目標是在 2029 年初實現首次投產。

Philip Jungwirth, BMO Capital Markets.

Philip Jungwirth，BMO 資本市場。

You closed some incremental divestitures in the quarter and completed the $5 billion -- I know you're never done, so how are you thinking about portfolio management going forward, beyond just the Norway reports?

你們在本季完成了一些額外的資產剝離，並完成了 50 億美元——我知道你們永遠不會說「完成」——那麼展望未來，除了挪威相關報導之外，你們將如何思考後續的資產組合管理？

And then on the growth side, are most of the organic opportunities you're assessing kind of focused in the MENA region, like what you've done with Iraq, better Libya fiscals, and then Syria? And how do you assess overall risk profile when entering a new country, given that Conoco's portfolio is more OECD-weighted than peers who have a global footprint?

另外在成長面，你們正在評估的大多數有機機會，是否主要聚焦在中東與北非（MENA）地區，例如你們在伊拉克所做的、利比亞更好的財政條件，以及敘利亞？鑑於康菲的資產組合相較於具有全球布局的同業更偏重 OECD，你們在進入新國家時，如何評估整體風險輪廓？

Let me sort of just try to take a step back here and sort of describe sort of -- first of all, I want to be clear, everything we talked about in terms of the Pillar 2 and the opportunities to grow our free cash flow, that's already captured in our portfolio. It's not reliant on any additional things coming into our portfolio. So I think that's a very important point just to clarify.

我先稍微退一步，試著從更宏觀的角度說明——首先我想講清楚：我們談到的第二支柱（Pillar 2）以及提升自由現金流的成長機會，都已經包含在我們現有的資產組合之中。這並不依賴任何額外資產納入我們的組合。所以我認為這是一個非常重要、需要先釐清的點。

And then as we look at additional opportunities, and we have been looking a fair bit in the Middle East recently, and I'll just put that in context. There's a number of Middle East governments that are actively seeking capable partners, and we really are one of the very few U.S. companies that have the technical capabilities and the operational experience to consider those opportunities. And -- but I want to be clear that any new opportunity that we may pursue must fit within that framework I described. It must offer attractive fiscals. It must give us competitive risk-adjusted cost of supply.

接著談到額外機會，我們最近確實在中東看了不少，我先把它放在脈絡中說明。有許多中東政府正積極尋找有能力的合作夥伴，而我們確實是少數具備技術能力與營運經驗、可以評估這些機會的美國公司之一。不過我想說清楚：我們可能追求的任何新機會，都必須符合我所描述的那個框架。它必須提供具吸引力的財政條件。它必須讓我們在風險調整後的供應成本上具備競爭力。

And to your point around -- we've got a portfolio that's a heavy weighting to the OECD, that's absolutely true, and we really like that. But what that does when we're managing a portfolio, it does give us the opportunity to basically look at putting a bit more Middle East into the portfolio, as we are so weighted OECD. But again, it's only -- we're only going to do that in a way where it's basically complementing what we have with our Lower 48 unconventional portfolio, what we already have in Alaska and International. And it's got to -- I'll be really clear on this, it's got to be consistent with the framework that we have. We've got to do this in a way where -- is we're still delivering the consistent long-term CFO growth. And anything we're doing is basically still working within that framework of a lower reinvestment rate.

至於你提到的——我們的資產組合確實高度偏重 OECD，這完全正確，而且我們很喜歡這樣的配置。但在管理資產組合時，這也讓我們有機會在組合中加入一些中東資產，因為我們目前對 OECD 的比重確實很高。不過再次強調，我們只會以能夠補強我們既有配置的方式來做，也就是與我們在美國本土 48 州的非常規資產組合、我們在阿拉斯加以及國際資產相互補充。而且必須——我會非常清楚地說——必須與我們的框架一致。我們必須以仍能交付長期一致的 CFO（營運現金流）成長的方式來做。而我們所做的任何事情，基本上也都必須仍在較低再投資率的框架內運作。

So I look at these as things that if the opportunities are right, it's a way of adding some very, very good long-life resources to the portfolio if we can get the right fiscals. And we're a company that's in the position to look at doing that. And it's really -- so it's not about making our company bigger, it's about making our company better. And these are the kind of things that I think will make our company better if we can structure them the right way within our framework. And it's just really just part of our active portfolio management.

因此我把這些視為：如果機會條件合適，且我們能取得正確的財政條件，這是一種為資產組合增加非常、非常優質長壽命資源的方式。而我們是一家有條件去評估並推動這類事情的公司。重點其實不是把公司做大，而是把公司做得更好。如果我們能在框架內以正確方式設計這些交易，我認為這些事情會讓公司變得更好。而這也只是我們積極進行資產組合管理的一部分。

Chris Baker, Evercore ISI.

Chris Baker，Evercore ISI。

I wanted to circle back on the capital efficiency discussion, a lot of great comments earlier. But specifically, last quarter, you all talked about a significant uplift from surfactant-treated Permian wells. I guess now that you've had more time with those wells, how is the uplift holding up? And I guess, how are you approaching the decision around a potential broader rollout? Could that be a further tailwind to '27 capital efficiency?

我想回到資本效率的討論，你們先前有很多很好的評論。但具體來說，上季你們談到使用界面活性劑處理的二疊紀（Permian）油井帶來顯著提升。我想現在你們對這些油井有更多時間觀察後，這個提升幅度維持得如何？另外，你們在決定是否更大範圍推廣時，是如何做判斷的？這是否可能成為 2027 年資本效率的另一個順風因素？

This is Nick. Chris, I'm going to step back a little bit on capital efficiency and then dive into the surfactants and some other technologies that we're deploying within Lower 48. But as a reminder, we are a leader in capital efficiency in each of our Lower 48 basins, and that's measured by total well CapEx per barrel of oil on an EUR basis, and you can see that in the public data. It all starts with the quality of the rocks. As Andy mentioned, we are advantaged with core acreage in each of those basins. And if you look at the well productivity trends, we have been the stronger and more consistent than pretty much any operator in the basins we operate in. And that's, again, a testament of the quality of rock, and it's a testament of the team's relentless focus on driving that capital efficiency and minimizing our operational costs.

我是 Nick。Chris，我先稍微退一步談談資本效率，接著再深入說明我們在美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）部署的界面活性劑以及其他一些技術。不過提醒一下，我們在 Lower 48 各個盆地的資本效率都處於領先地位，衡量方式是以 EUR（最終可採收量）為基礎、每桶油對應的單井總資本支出（CapEx），你可以在公開資料中看到。一切都始於岩層品質。如同 Andy 提到的，我們在每個盆地都擁有具優勢的核心區塊（core acreage）。如果你看單井生產力的趨勢，我們在所營運的盆地中，表現幾乎比任何營運商都更強且更一致。這再次證明了岩層品質，也證明了團隊對提升資本效率、並將營運成本降到最低的持續專注。

A couple of key drivers for 2026 is we continue to extend lateral lengths across the portfolio, 50% improvement compared to 2026. And we're doubling the number of 3-mile laterals or greater across the Lower 48. And then secondly, we expect to continuously drive improvement in D&C efficiencies, following the 15% improvement we achieved in 2025, and that's coming roughly from like continuous pumping and simulfrac.

2026 年的幾個關鍵驅動因素是：我們將持續在整體資產組合中延長水平段長度，相較於 2026 年提升 50%。同時，我們會把 Lower 48 中 3 英里或更長水平段的井數提高到兩倍。第二，我們預期在鑽完井（D&C）效率上持續改善，延續我們在 2025 年達成的 15% 改善，這大致來自於連續泵送（continuous pumping）與 simulfrac。

And that leads me to what Andy mentioned in his prepared remarks, is that we delivered record completion performance in the third quarter across our crews, as pump hours were up 15% from where we were in 2025. And one of our crews pumped 23 hours per day in August, and that was a record for us, as well as the vendor. And that was achieved by completing more wells simultaneously across the Permian using simulfrac, and that was combined with longer laterals. And with that increased pump hours, this also delivered a record-setting 20% improvement in stimulated footage per day, and we continue to see that in Q4. Now we continue to test the real-time frac optimization using advanced subsurface diagnostics like using fiber optics, and that will allow us to make sure we're not overcapitalizing our completions, but also ensuring that the fracs are placed in most effective areas.

這也呼應 Andy 在事先準備的發言中提到的：第三季我們各施工隊交出了創紀錄的完井表現，因為泵送工時（pump hours）較 2025 年提高了 15%。我們其中一支施工隊在 8 月每天泵送 23 小時，這對我們以及供應商而言都是紀錄。這是透過在二疊紀盆地（Permian）使用 simulfrac 同時完井更多口井，並搭配更長的水平段所達成的。隨著泵送工時增加，我們也創下每日受刺激段長（stimulated footage per day）提升 20% 的紀錄，且在第四季仍持續看到這個趨勢。現在我們也持續測試使用先進地下診斷（例如光纖）進行即時壓裂最佳化（real-time frac optimization），這將讓我們確保完井不會過度資本化，同時也能確保壓裂段落配置在最有效的區域。

Now switching gears to the technology, and I'll come up on the surfactant here, we're testing a range of technologies, looking at how do we improve recovery, but also how do we improve capital efficiency out there.

接著把焦點轉到技術面，我會談到界面活性劑；我們正在測試一系列技術，思考如何提升採收率，同時也如何提升現場的資本效率。

Now first, I want to talk a little bit about application of far-field diverters, which keeps the frac energy in the targeted wellbore in Eagle Ford. That technology has greatly mitigated frac hits with child wells, which immediately improves the capital efficiency. Now we're scaling that technology into Eagle Ford over the entire program and ramping that deployment in Bakken and seeing really encouraging results.

首先，我想稍微談談遠場分流劑（far-field diverters）的應用，它能把壓裂能量維持在 Eagle Ford 的目標井筒內。這項技術大幅降低了子井（child wells）受到壓裂干擾（frac hits）的情況，從而立即提升資本效率。我們正在把這項技術擴大到 Eagle Ford 的整個計畫，並在 Bakken 加速部署，且看到相當令人鼓舞的結果。

Now Chris, to your point, surfactants, we've shown a 20% uplift in oil productivity for treated wells. Now we have about 1.5 years of data on several groups of wells. And we're testing that both in new and existing wells and we're seeing a range of outcomes. We're also applying new surfactants on untested reservoir benches. And I guess the bottom line, that opportunity has got a lot of space.

Chris，回到你提到的界面活性劑，我們已證實對處理井的原油生產力可提升 20%。目前我們對數個井群已累積約 1.5 年的資料。我們同時在新井與既有井上測試，並看到不同幅度的結果。我們也在尚未測試過的儲層層段（reservoir benches）上應用新的界面活性劑。總結來說，這個機會空間很大。

And so to your question, we will be seeing additional applications of treatments across the portfolio in 2027, but don't think that is a large capital increase out there. It's going to be a very measured pace application.

因此針對你的問題，我們在 2027 年會在整體資產組合中看到更多處理措施的應用，但不要認為這會帶來大幅的資本增加。我們會以非常審慎、可控的節奏來推進。

And then I'll end on is we've got a large non-operated program. So we roughly see one out of every six wells drilled in those basins. So we have real-time visibility, that's what's happening in the industry, which is a great opportunity to leverage that information. And then I'll just end on the biggest driver for productivity, I talked a lot about it, but it's really been back to the rock, and that's where we're most differentiated in our Lower 48 portfolio, with the two decades of inventory.

最後我想補充的是，我們有一個規模很大的非自營（non-operated）計畫。因此在那些盆地中，大約每六口鑽井就有一口是我們能看到的。我們能即時掌握產業正在發生的事情，這是運用這些資訊的絕佳機會。最後再強調一次，生產力最大的驅動因素——我已談了很多——其實還是回到岩層本身；這正是我們在 Lower 48 資產組合中最具差異化之處，並且我們擁有長達二十年的庫存（inventory）。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

Doug Leggate，Wolfe Research。

Andy, you've laid out a pretty compelling long-term, I guess, dividend growth story. My question is about the growth beyond 2029 and the capital that goes along with that. I don't know how much detail you can go into at this point, but 2023 was a few years ago now, and you had a 10-year plan laid out then. But I guess my question is, the sustaining capital and the growth capital are two elements of that. How do you see the spending level as it relates to supporting that growth you've suggested today, with free cash flow growth that will go beyond 2029?

Andy，你提出了一個相當有說服力的長期、我想可以說是股利成長的故事。我的問題是關於 2029 年之後的成長，以及與之相伴的資本投入。我不確定你現在能談到多細，但 2023 年距今也有幾年了，當時你提出了一個 10 年計畫。我想我的問題是，維持性資本（sustaining capital）與成長性資本（growth capital）是其中兩個要素。你如何看待支出水準，以支撐你今天所提到、且將延伸到 2029 年之後的自由現金流成長？

Maybe I'll start this one off, and then I think Konnie can sort of help fill in a bit of details on sort of how it comes together with our breakevens. But probably, obviously, I'm not going to get into sort of which asset dollars specifically go to in the 2030s, but I will put a bit of color on it for you to try to sort of make this sort of come together.

我先來回答這題，接著我想 Konnie 可以協助補充一些細節，說明它如何與我們的損益兩平（breakevens）一起串起來。不過很明顯地，我不會深入到 2030 年代具體哪些資產會配置多少資金，但我會提供一些背景，幫你把整體脈絡拼起來。

As you know, we're successfully moving now through the -- our pre-productive CapEx, where we're at a point where our underlying CFO is growing, our costs are coming down, projects are coming online, and capital is starting to decline. And I've said the term a couple of times now, that that's going to result in us having a structurally lower reinvestment rate.

如你所知，我們現在正成功地走過——我們的前期、尚未產出（pre-productive）的資本支出階段；目前我們的基礎營運現金流（CFO）正在成長、成本在下降、專案陸續投產，而資本支出也開始下滑。我已經提過幾次，這將使我們的再投資率（reinvestment rate）在結構上更低。

So what do I mean by structurally lower reinvestment rate? And that's probably getting to the heart of your question. Now obviously, in the commodity prices today, it's easy to say we have -- our reinvestment rate is down in the low 40s right now. But that's the wrong way, I think, to look at it. You need to be -- well, the way we look at it is, if you look at what our reinvestment rate would have been over the last couple of years, say at a $70 price deck, we would have been running a reinvestment rate with the pre-productive CapEx probably something close to 60%.

那麼我所說的「結構性較低的再投資率」是什麼意思？這大概正切中你的問題核心。當然，在今天的商品價格環境下，很容易說我們——目前再投資率落在 40% 出頭。但我認為那樣看是不對的。你需要——我們的看法是：如果你看過去幾年在每桶 70 美元的價格假設（$70 price deck）下，我們的再投資率若包含前期、尚未產出（pre-productive）的資本支出，可能會接近 60%。

And if you just fast forward as we get into the next decade, all of the things I described when, I think it was the first question that Betty asked, in terms of all the things organically in our portfolio that allow us to keep growing, I can't emphasize enough that when I say a structurally low reinvestment rate, what I specifically mean is that we'll be able to invest in all of the things, the exact order of which one in which year, that's what we have to work out and plan in the 2030s, but the depth of the inventory you have, we'll be investing a reinvestment rate in the future that is basically well below 50%.

如果你把時間快轉到下一個十年，回到我描述的所有事情——我想是在 Betty 的第一個問題時提到的——就我們資產組合中能夠有機地（organically）持續成長的各項因素而言，我必須再次強調：當我說「結構性較低的再投資率」，我具體的意思是，我們將能投資於所有這些事項；至於哪一項在某一年、以什麼順序發生，這是我們在 2030 年代需要規劃與安排的，但以你所擁有的庫存深度而言，未來我們的再投資率基本上會明顯低於 50%。

So we're in the low 60s now, and we'd be well below 50% reinvestment rate when we get into the 2030s. And when you combine that with the inventory running room we have, the balance sheet strength we have, a lower reinvestment rate, growing CFO, to me, that's sort of one of the most compelling things about our value proposition is how we'll be able to grow that CFO and then grow the distributions out of that.

所以我們現在大約在 60% 出頭，而進入 2030 年代後，我們的再投資率會遠低於 50%。再把這點與我們的庫存可延展空間（inventory running room）、資產負債表的強度、更低的再投資率、成長中的營運現金流（CFO）結合起來，對我而言，這就是我們價值主張中最具吸引力的部分之一：我們將能夠讓 CFO 成長，並在此基礎上提高對股東的分配（distributions）。

And probably the last proof point that I'll let just Konnie cover for us is that, yes, it's a reinvestment rate comes down, but our breakeven comes down too. And just maybe just touch on the breakeven first, Konnie.

而且我想最後一個我會讓 Konnie 來為我們說明的佐證點是：沒錯，再投資率會下降，但我們的損益兩平點也會下降。Konnie，或許先談談損益兩平點。

Yes, absolutely. Good morning, Doug. Good to have you on the call. So just to give a couple of proof points on our breakeven, right now, our pre-dividend, free cash flow breakeven is in the mid-40s WTI. And over this period of time as we approach 2029 and beyond, that will improve to the low 30s. That is really a main component of what lets us continue to grow the dividend and at a top-quartile rate for the long term.

是的，完全正確。早安，Doug。很高興你加入這通電話。就我們的損益兩平點提供幾個佐證點：目前，我們在配息前的自由現金流損益兩平點約在 WTI 每桶 40 多美元的中段。隨著時間推進、接近 2029 年及之後，這將改善到 30 多美元的低段。這確實是讓我們能在長期持續提高股利、並以同業前四分位的速度成長的一個主要構成要素。

But as Andy has mentioned before, the dividend has to work in all areas of the cycle. So what I want to do is also take this to kind of our return of capital framework and how we think about buybacks. So buybacks are also how we flex with price to deliver on that annual commitment that is so important to us. And right now, buybacks also -- we retire about 4% to 5% of our shares each year. So that is another way that over the long term, our dividend growth is supported on a per-share basis.

但如 Andy 先前提到的，股利必須在景氣循環的各個階段都能運作。因此我也想把這延伸到我們的資本回饋架構，以及我們如何看待庫藏股回購。回購也是我們隨油價彈性調整、以兌現對我們而言非常重要的年度承諾的方式。而且目前回購也——我們每年大約會註銷 4% 到 5% 的流通股數。因此，從長期來看，這也是支持我們以每股為基礎的股利成長的另一種方式。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

Arun Jayaram，摩根大通。

Andy, I wanted to delve a little bit deeper in Priority 5, in portfolio management. And I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate on your approach to portfolio management. Should we expect a more muscular approach to the portfolio under your regime? And perhaps I wanted to get maybe in detail, how you think about more mature parts of the portfolio, places like Norway versus your more, call it, advantaged assets in parts of the Lower 48, LNG, Surmont, et cetera?

Andy，我想更深入探討一下優先事項 5，也就是投資組合管理。我想請你進一步說明你對投資組合管理的做法。在你的任期下，我們是否應該期待更強勢的投資組合調整作風？另外也想更細一點了解：你如何看待投資組合中較成熟的部分，例如挪威，相對於你們在美國本土下 48 州部分地區、LNG、Surmont 等更具優勢的資產？

I'm not sure muscular would be the word I would pick to describe it, but the way we think about portfolio management has been very consistent at ConocoPhillips for a long time. We've always said that we basically have a rigorous process to evaluate our assets. We should never think of anything as being static. Assets do mature over time. So I'll start with that.

我不確定「更強勢」會是我用來形容的詞，但我們對投資組合管理的思維，在康菲石油（ConocoPhillips）長期以來一直非常一致。我們一向表示，我們基本上有一套嚴謹的流程來評估資產。我們不應該把任何事物視為一成不變。資產會隨時間成熟。所以我先從這點開始。

And then -- so we're always looking to what we should -- what competes in our portfolio. And as assets basically become a little less competitive in the portfolio, we have conversations with our teams about what the options are to make them more competitive. But ultimately, we -- I think the term I’ve used in the past is we need to make sure that we don't sort of just get enamored with the asset and not sell it at the right point.

然後——因此我們一直在看：在我們的投資組合中，哪些資產彼此競爭。當資產在投資組合中的競爭力逐漸下降時，我們會與團隊討論有哪些選項可以讓它們更具競爭力。但最終，我——我過去用過的說法是：我們必須確保不會只是迷戀某個資產，而沒有在適當的時點把它賣掉。

But specifically to Norway, I want to address this one head on, so as I've previously communicated, we received an unsolicited offer for Norway. We typically wouldn't be being public about an asset this early in sort of something like an unsolicited offer, but the way the rules work in Norway, that we needed to go public with that and be very transparent, and we wanted to be very transparent with our employees that we were -- we received an offer. And we're now looking at offers for the asset.

但針對挪威，我想正面回應：如我先前已溝通過的，我們收到了一份針對挪威資產的非邀約式出價。一般而言，在這麼早的階段、像是收到非邀約式出價，我們通常不會對外公開談論某項資產；但依挪威的規則運作方式，我們必須公開並保持高度透明，我們也希望對員工非常透明，讓大家知道我們——已收到一份出價。而我們目前正在評估該資產的出價。

But just to be clear, we've made no decisions on Norway. We have a very long history in Norway. It is a great asset. It's a great cash engine for the company. And just to be clear, if we don't receive an offer that exceeds our expectations, we're happy to keep the asset.

但要說清楚的是，我們對挪威尚未做出任何決定。我們在挪威有非常長的歷史。那是一項很棒的資產。它是公司很強的現金引擎。而且再說清楚一點：如果我們沒有收到超出我們預期的出價，我們也很樂意保留這項資產。

So I would say, it's a bit more public than I would ideally like. We're not normally talking about them this early in the cycle, but this is how the process works. This is -- we identify assets, we get approached about assets, we evaluate them, and we decide what the best long-term value option is. And that's exactly what's happening with Norway. And sort of out of respect to our to our employees and all of our stakeholders, we'll quietly work that, and when we have something to say and announce, we'll do that.

所以我會說，這件事的公開程度比我理想中更高。我們通常不會在這個流程這麼早的階段就談論這些，但流程就是如此運作。也就是——我們辨識資產、有人就資產接洽我們、我們評估，然後決定哪個選項能帶來最佳的長期價值。挪威目前發生的正是如此。出於對我們員工以及所有利害關係人的尊重，我們會低調地推進；當我們有可以說明與宣布的事項時，我們就會對外宣布。

So I wouldn't describe Norway as being sort of more muscular in what we're doing. I think it's just the timing of when somethings happened. I think we'll continue to look at our portfolio this way. I think it's healthy.

所以我不會把挪威描述成我們在做什麼「更強勢」的動作。我認為只是事情發生的時間點使然。我想我們會持續以這種方式檢視我們的投資組合。我認為這是健康的。

I had the question earlier about sort of assets coming into the portfolio and things we might be looking at in the Middle East. It's just part of the cycle. It's part of what we do to maintain our portfolio and to make sure our portfolio is sort of, in my view, the most competitive out there. So I think you -- a bit of a broken record here, but I think you can expect sort of more of the same from ConocoPhillips and how we evaluate assets and how we add things and subtract things from the portfolio.

我先前也被問到關於資產納入投資組合，以及我們可能在中東關注的事項。這只是循環的一部分。這也是我們維持投資組合、並確保投資組合在我看來是市場上最具競爭力之一的工作內容。所以我想你——我有點像壞掉的唱片，但我想你可以期待康菲石油在資產評估、以及在投資組合中增加與減少資產方面，會是大致相同的做法。

Neal Dingmann, William Blair.

Neal Dingmann，William Blair。

My question is likely for Nick. Nick, on the Permian, could you speak to your -- how you're looking and thinking about the Permian development plan next year, specifically maybe on targeting various formations? It seems like zones like the Woodford and Barnett have gotten a lot of attention recently. And I know -- I mean I'm sure you've got a lot of prospectivity there, so would just love how you're sort of thinking about the overall development plan.

我的問題可能是問 Nick。Nick，關於二疊紀（Permian），你能談談你們——你們如何看待並規劃明年的二疊紀開發計畫嗎？特別是例如針對不同層系的目標。看起來像 Woodford 和 Barnett 這些層位最近受到很多關注。而且我知道——我的意思是我相信你們那裡有很大的勘探潛力，所以很想了解你們如何思考整體的開發計畫。

Yes. Sure, Neal. Well, let's -- stepping back, as a reminder, we have the deepest Tier 1 inventory in the Permian. So if you look at our proven in our primary zones, that remains the vast majority of our ongoing development program this year and for many years to come.

是的。當然可以，Neal。嗯，我們先退一步，提醒一下：我們在二疊紀擁有最深厚的第一級（Tier 1）庫存。所以如果你看我們在主要層位中已證實的資源，那仍然是我們今年以及未來多年持續開發計畫的絕大部分。

So as the secondary zones that you just mentioned like the Woodford and the Barnett, we look at that as really as upside on top of that inventory depth, really not a replacement for it. So I can give you a little insight related to the results so far with those benches. So for example, in the Delaware Woodford, we brought that, a number online this year. They're performing at or above expectations, and they're probably low $30 or $40 cost of supply. Now we expect to further drive improvement with those opportunities as we move to longer 3-mile development and optimized completion designs.

至於你剛提到的次要層位，例如 Woodford 和 Barnett，我們把它視為在既有庫存深度之上的上行空間，而不是用來取代它。我可以就目前這些層段（bench）的結果提供一些觀察。例如在 Delaware 的 Woodford，我們今年讓其中多口井投產。它們的表現符合或高於預期，供應成本大概在每桶 30 多到 40 美元的低段。接下來，隨著我們轉向更長的 3 英里開發，以及最佳化的完井設計，我們預期能在這些機會上進一步推動改善。

Now in the Midland Barnett, it's still early days, Neal, and delineating that play will take some time. So we're seeing some pretty early encouraging results with the Barnett, and those opportunities are in line with core Midland Basin wells.

至於 Midland 的 Barnett，Neal，目前仍在早期階段，對該區塊進行圈定（delineation）還需要一些時間。我們在 Barnett 看到一些相當早期且令人鼓舞的結果，而這些機會的表現與 Midland 盆地核心區井的水準一致。

But just to reiterate, as a reminder, the deep Tier 1 inventory is going to be our main primary focus for years to come. And as we continue, we'll delineate these further as we drive the learning curve down over time.

但再重申一次，提醒一下：深厚的第一級（Tier 1）庫存將會是我們未來多年的主要重點。而隨著我們持續推進，我們會進一步圈定這些機會，並在時間推移中把學習曲線持續往下拉。

Yeah, I would just add, as Nick said, Tier 1 primary zones is where most of our focus is. Of course, we're staying abreast and aware of sort of some of the secondary zones, and we have all of that acreage too. But when we've got such a deep Tier 1, as Nick said, that's where you'll see the vast, vast majority of our dollars being spent.

是的，我只想補充一下，如 Nick 所說，我們的重點主要放在第一級（Tier 1）核心區域。當然，我們也會持續掌握並關注一些次級區域的情況，而且那些區域的礦權我們也都有。但當我們擁有如此深厚的 Tier 1 儲備，如 Nick 所說，你會看到我們絕大多數、絕大多數的資金都會投入在那裡。

We also benefit, as Nick said in the previous answer, that we see a lot of the wells as a non-op getting drilled across the basin. So we can -- we'll continue to learn about the primary zones and sort of which ones are more attractive, also the secondary zones, which ones become more attractive, but it won't distract us from our Tier 1 inventory that we have years and years of primary zones to get after.

此外，如 Nick 在前一個回答中提到，我們也受益於以非作業方（non-op）的身分看到盆地內有大量井在鑽探。因此我們可以——也會持續——學習更多關於核心層位（primary zones）以及哪些更具吸引力，同時也會了解次級層位（secondary zones）中哪些會變得更有吸引力，但這不會分散我們對 Tier 1 庫存的專注，因為我們擁有可開發多年的核心層位庫存。

Sam Margolin, Wells Fargo.

Sam Margolin，富國銀行。

Maybe we could pay a visit to Qatar for an update. You mentioned NFE contributing next year in a base case, but you also -- obviously, there's a lot of variables and different scenarios. And so I guess the question is, we know that the security considerations to ship LNG out of the Strait of Hormuz are different than oil, and we can see that in flows today. And so in a base case in a ceasefire scenario, what do you think has to happen for NFE to ramp towards full rates, and for the remainder of the Qatar footprint to be at 100% sort of unencumbered.

也許我們可以談一下卡達的最新情況。你提到在基本情境下，NFE 明年會開始貢獻，但你也——很明顯——提到有很多變數與不同情境。所以我想問的是，我們知道經由荷姆茲海峽運出 LNG 的安全考量與原油不同，從今天的流量也看得出來。那麼在停火情境的基本假設下，你認為要發生哪些事情，NFE 才能逐步提升到接近滿載，而卡達其餘資產版圖也能在不受掣肘的情況下達到 100% 運作？

Sam, this is Kirk. Yes. Certainly, appreciate the question in context of certainly what we're all seeing and feeling there in the Middle East right now, especially with our own teams and operations there in Doha.

Sam，我是 Kirk。是的。當然，感謝你在目前我們在中東那邊所看到、所感受到的情勢背景下提出這個問題，尤其是我們在杜哈的團隊與營運也正身處其中。

As you saw, maybe I'll just start with operationally, because I think that's a bit of a good lead in here to your question, specifically on NFE. You saw from our earnings materials that the Qatar production has actually increased here in third quarter over second quarter. But again, it does, in fact, as you're pointing to, it remains below pre-conflict levels. And so, of course, we can imagine, as I'm sure many do, quite a range of outcomes that could be possible here in the fourth quarter, anything from a continuation of what we're seeing in third quarter, to potentially a ramp-up to a full utilization of the trains that we have there on N3 that have been operating at a constrained level.

如你所見，也許我先從營運面談起，因為我認為這能很好地引出你關於 NFE 的問題。你從我們的財報資料中看到，卡達第三季的產量其實較第二季有所增加。但同樣地，正如你所指出的，它確實仍低於衝突前的水準。因此，當然可以想像——我相信很多人也是如此——第四季可能出現相當廣泛的結果，從延續第三季所見的狀況，到可能逐步提升，讓我們在 N3 的液化列車（trains）從目前受限的運轉水準提升至全面利用。

Our fourth-quarter guidance does, in fact, include, and takes into account that uncertainty that could exist in Qatar. And so if you project that forward, then -- and certainly, what we've been realizing there as a contributor to the projects of NFE, and ultimately NFS as well, is the fact that they have despite utilization constraints in total production, with challenges just with overall flow through the Strait, we've continued to see some pretty strong, if not quite strong, construction progress there by the Qatar team.

我們對第四季的指引確實已納入並考量卡達可能存在的不確定性。因此若把這往前推演——而且我們在那裡一直看到，作為 NFE、最終也包括 NFS 專案的貢獻者——儘管在總產量上受到利用率限制、且整體通過海峽的流量面臨挑戰，我們仍持續看到卡達團隊在工程建設方面取得相當強勁、即便未必是非常強勁的進展。

And so as published and stated by QE, we are expecting NFE to come online in the first half of 2027. And that's -- our own expectations, obviously, are consistent with what we're seeing from -- as being published by Qatar Energy. And then, of course, NFS follows that. And so while we've seen reduced utilization, projects -- project progress continues, and so we expect NFE and, ultimately NFS to continue to contribute to this free cash flow inflection that we premised for the next couple of years.

因此，依據 QE（卡達能源）已發布並說明的資訊，我們預期 NFE 將於 2027 年上半年投產上線。而這——我們自身的預期——顯然與我們從卡達能源公開發布內容所看到的是一致的。接著當然就是 NFS。所以，儘管我們看到利用率降低，專案——專案進度仍在持續推進，因此我們預期 NFE 以及最終的 NFS 會持續為我們在未來幾年所設定的自由現金流拐點帶來貢獻。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

Josh Silverstein，瑞銀。

Just wanted to follow up on Canada. With the more supportive policy environment up there, it seems like Canada investment opportunity has certainly moved up your pecking order here. So I was just curious about the opportunity you see there for increased investment. Is both Surmont and Montney; one versus the other? And then maybe just some views as to where the underlying cash flow improves under the new tax legislation.

我想追問一下加拿大。在那邊政策環境更為支持的情況下，看起來加拿大的投資機會確實在你們的優先順序中往前移了。所以我想了解你們看到的加碼投資機會是什麼。是 Surmont 和 Montney 兩者都會，還是其中一個相對更重要？另外，也想請你談談在新的稅制立法下，基礎現金流在哪些方面會改善。

This is Kirk. Yes, certainly, as you saw from our release materials, we did bring on Pad 104W-B ahead of schedule and under budget. I think that's really quite indicative of the strong performance that we've been seeing from that business over the last couple of years, strong base production and then strong development production as we've been bringing on a new pad roughly every 12 to 18 months. And we've been seeing strong performance coming out of those wells and those pads as well. Pad 104-A, its production has been exceeding our own expectations and so naturally, expecting really good things, strong production from 104-B.

我是 Kirk。是的，當然，如你從我們的發布資料所見，我們的 104W-B 井場（Pad 104W-B）提前於進度、且低於預算投產。我認為這非常能反映過去幾年我們在該業務所看到的強勁表現：穩健的基礎產量，以及在我們大約每 12 到 18 個月投產一個新井場的過程中所展現的強勁開發產量。而且我們也看到那些井與井場的表現都很強勁。104-A 井場的產量一直超出我們自身的預期，因此自然也對 104-B 的強勁產量抱持很高期待。

But as you're pointing to, here, Josh, there's a number of things going on here in Canada right now, whether it's pointed at Montney or especially pointed at Surmont on the trilateral MOU. And I think this continues to point to the underpinnings of, certainly in our published materials and Andy's opening comments, the fact that we have a strong organic existing position here in the company in our international portfolio to continue to expand CFO and free cash flow. And it's coming from assets and businesses like Surmont. Again, this is a differentiated asset. It's unique in the fact that it's low decline, and it's very long life with a low cost of supply set of investments in front of us, and it demands a pretty low capital intensity when we compare that to other assets in our portfolio. And it does contain a future growth option.

但如你所指出的，Josh，目前加拿大這邊有多項因素同時在發生，不論是針對 Montney，或是特別針對 Surmont 的三方 MOU。這也持續凸顯——正如我們公開資料以及 Andy 開場評論所提到的——我們公司在國際投資組合中擁有強勁的既有有機部位，可持續擴大營運現金流（CFO）與自由現金流。而這些貢獻來自像 Surmont 這樣的資產與業務。再次強調，這是一項差異化資產。它的獨特之處在於遞減率低、壽命非常長，且我們面前的投資具有低供應成本；與我們投資組合中的其他資產相比，它所需的資本強度相當低。而且它也包含未來的成長選擇權。

So certainly, as you've been seeing in the press, as a member of the Oil Sands Alliance, we have been in negotiation with the two governments, the federal and the provincial government there in Canada, along with the other Oil Sands Alliance members. And while we have yet to formalize the agreements coming out of the trilateral MOU, we're really quite positive on the fiscal incentives that have been premised in the MOU and we continue to negotiate, as well as the policy and the regulatory proposals that are coming about to incentivize growth. And those incentives range from accelerated depreciation to support on both capital and cost.

因此，正如你在媒體上所看到的，作為油砂聯盟（Oil Sands Alliance）的成員，我們一直與加拿大的兩級政府——聯邦政府與省政府——以及其他油砂聯盟成員進行協商。雖然我們尚未將三方 MOU 所衍生的協議正式定案，但我們對 MOU 中所設定的財政激勵相當正面，並持續就相關內容進行談判，同時也就正在提出、用以激勵成長的政策與監管提案持續溝通。而這些激勵措施涵蓋從加速折舊，到對資本與成本兩方面的支持。

And so again, when I back up, I think about assets like Surmont as being a great demonstration of the value and the inventory that we have in the company to not just continue to modestly grow production in places like Surmont into existing capacity, but we also have the capacity and the capability to expand total production through some really modest capital investments. And so even inclusive of an expansion project or a pathways project, this asset, Surmont specifically, is in a place of having a very advantaged low reinvestment rate, and it's part of this contribution to our ability to continue to expand CFO and free cash flow well into the next decade.

因此再次退一步來看，我認為像 Surmont 這樣的資產很好地展示了我們公司所擁有的價值與庫存：不僅能在 Surmont 這類地區於既有產能內持續溫和增產，我們也具備透過相當溫和的資本投資來擴大全部產量的產能與能力。因此，即便把擴建專案或 pathways 專案也納入考量，這項資產——特別是 Surmont——仍處於再投資率非常有利、偏低的狀態，並且是我們能在未來十年持續擴大營運現金流（CFO）與自由現金流能力的一部分貢獻來源。

James West, Melius Research.

James West，Melius Research。

I had a question around Alaska and Willow. I know we've talked a little bit about it already and where the project is heading, but the -- you've had some exploration success, you'll likely have more and curious how you think about how much duration that would add to Willow once you ramp it and it gets to a plateau.

我有一個關於阿拉斯加與 Willow 的問題。我知道我們之前已經稍微談過這個專案以及它的進展方向，但——你們在勘探上已有一些成功，之後可能還會有更多；我想了解的是，一旦你們把 Willow 拉升並達到平台期（plateau），你們如何看待這些勘探成果會為 Willow 增加多少可持續期間（duration）？

This is Kirk. Yes, certainly, as you're pointing to, and Andy spoke to this earlier a number of times, but I'll reinforce a couple of components here just to start with, which is this last winter season, we drilled roughly four exploration wells, and saw enough to be rather explicit about the fact that we're positive about our ability to continue to bring in more resource into Willow.

我是 Kirk。是的，當然，如你所指出的，Andy 先前也多次談到這點，但我想在這裡再強調幾個面向作為開頭：在上一個冬季作業季，我們鑽了大約四口勘探井，並且看到足夠的結果，使我們能相當明確地表示，我們對於持續為 Willow 納入更多資源量的能力抱持正面看法。

And so naturally, then, of course, as described, we're preparing for this next winter season. And we have plans to drill roughly the same number of wells, another four wells, do a bit more seismic. And all of this is in an effort to mature our understanding of the opportunities that exist for us beyond Willow.

因此很自然地，如同所描述的，我們正在為下一個冬季作準備。我們計畫鑽探大致相同數量的井，再鑽四口井，並多做一些地震勘測。而這一切都是為了加深我們對 Willow 以外、我們所擁有機會的理解。

And so as we ready for this, inclusive of the fact that we just received federal permits to begin drilling and begin executing that program there up on the slope this winter, all of this is in an effort to lay the groundwork to use Willow's infrastructure in the same way that we've been using the infrastructure that has existed for decades, which is the Western North Slope, or sometimes I call it the Alpine infrastructure, as well as our Kuparuk infrastructure. And this creates the potential for satellite pads that can be developed in a really capital-advantaged way. We can put pads out there at a really low ratable capital spend and bring more resource into Willow in the years following first oil in which we've come off of plateau there at Willow. And so we continue to use the infrastructure to our advantage, low cost of supply.

因此在我們為此做準備時，包括我們剛取得聯邦許可，得以在今年冬季於坡地上開始鑽探並執行該計畫；這一切都是為了奠定基礎，以便以同樣方式運用 Willow 的基礎設施，就像我們數十年來一直在使用既有的基礎設施一樣，也就是西部北坡（我有時稱之為 Alpine 基礎設施），以及我們的 Kuparuk 基礎設施。這也創造了可開發衛星井場（satellite pads）的潛力，而且能以非常具資本效率的方式開發。我們可以用非常低、可分攤的資本支出在那裡建置井場，並在 Willow 首次出油、且 Willow 的產量平台期結束後的幾年，把更多資源導入 Willow。因此我們持續善用基礎設施的優勢，維持低供應成本。

And even with all of that included, you can continue to expect capital to come down in Willow, inclusive of all the efforts that we're doing to explore, appraise, and develop these new satellites. All of this, again, certainly, as Andy pointed out earlier, is another great example of our ability to continue to bring capital down and expand CFO and free cash flow well into the next decade.

即便把這些都納入考量，你仍可預期 Willow 的資本支出會持續下降，包括我們為探索、評估與開發這些新衛星項目所做的所有努力。而這一切再次、正如 Andy 先前指出的，是我們能持續降低資本支出，並在未來十年持續擴大 CFO 與自由現金流的又一個很好的例子。

Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

Kevin MacCurdy，Pickering Energy Partners。

My question was on the LNG portfolio and the cash flow contributions. You've steadily added offtake up to 13 MTPA now. Can you remind us how much of that you will see in 2027 and how that ramps? And any broad thoughts on where margins are currently and into next year?

我的問題是關於 LNG 投資組合以及對現金流的貢獻。你們已穩步把承購量增加到目前的 1,300 萬噸/年（MTPA）。能否提醒我們其中有多少會在 2027 年體現，以及之後如何爬坡？另外，對目前以及明年的利潤率大致有何看法？

This is Andy. So in terms of the -- you're right, we've been increasing our offtake and we're now at 13 million tonnes. The new capacity we're adding doesn't come on until later in this decade and into early in the next decade. So specifically, the volumes that we have that will be coming online first will be our Port Arthur Phase 1 volumes and a small amount of volume at ECA. So that's kind of the key driver to the volumes sort of coming on.

我是 Andy。就你提到的——你說得沒錯，我們一直在增加承購量，目前已達 1,300 萬噸。我們新增的產能要到本十年後期、以及下個十年初才會上線。因此具體而言，最先上線的量會是我們 Port Arthur 第一期的量，以及在 ECA 的少量供應量。這些是帶動供應量開始上線的關鍵因素。

I'll remind you, on Port Arthur Phase 1, we're also an equity owner in that. So as a 30% owner, we'll also be capturing our share of the commissioning cargoes that come off of that project. And then in terms of the margins, I'm not going to get into the specifics, but it's -- if you kind of -- when we've given you our free cash flow inflection, we've been very clear that we base that off of a $10 TTF and a $4 Henry Hub. And I think last time I looked, TTF was closer to $30. So we'll see where those margins are next year as they're coming on. But we're trading significantly above the $10 assumption that we had. And Henry Hub is trading below the $4 that we had, and the costs in between effectively are locked in for us. So as I look at our commercial team, I did sort of -- we can't get these volumes on fast enough. So it's -- Port Arthur Phase 1 is the key element of the volumes coming on for us next year.

我也提醒一下，在 Port Arthur 第一期，我們同時也是股權持有人。因此作為 30% 的持有人，我們也會取得該專案投產調試（commissioning）貨物的相應份額。至於利潤率，我不會談太多細節；但如果你回顧我們對自由現金流拐點的說明，我們非常清楚是以 TTF 10 美元與 Henry Hub 4 美元為基礎假設。我上次看時，TTF 更接近 30 美元。所以等到明年這些量開始上線時，我們再看利潤率會落在哪裡。但目前交易價格顯著高於我們 10 美元的假設。而 Henry Hub 的交易價格低於我們 4 美元的假設，且中間的成本基本上對我們而言是鎖定的。所以從商務團隊的角度看，我確實有種感覺——我們怎麼都嫌這些量上線得不夠快。因此，Port Arthur 第一期是我們明年新增供應量上線的關鍵要素。

Gabe Daoud, Truist Securities.

Gabe Daoud，Truist Securities。

Maybe, Andy, I was just hoping you could maybe -- any kind of update on path to monetizing the Venezuela claims? And then maybe additionally, just any kind of update on resource there and legal and fiscal terms, and whether or not there would be any kind of appetite to re-enter the country?

Andy，也許我想請你更新一下：將委內瑞拉索賠變現的路徑目前進展如何？另外，也想請你更新一下那邊的資源情況、法律與財政條款，以及公司是否有任何意願重新進入該國？

Yes. So for Venezuela, the way I would describe it for us is that we continue to engage to better understand opportunities there. But for us, to invest capital, we need to see a real pathway to meaningful recovery on the $12 billion we're owed.

是的。就委內瑞拉而言，我會這樣描述：我們仍持續接觸，以更好地了解那裡的機會。但對我們來說，要投入資本，我們必須看到一條明確的路徑，能對我們被欠的 120 億美元實現有意義的回收。

And it's also critical, let's not lose sight of the investments also got to compete with the rest of the portfolio. And we've -- I think we've gone through that in great length today and just how deep our portfolio already is. So even if we can sort of work through a pathway of meaningful recovery, you see improved security, you see improved fiscals, it's still got to compete within our portfolio.

同時也很關鍵的是，別忘了這些投資也必須與投資組合中的其他項目競爭。而我想我們今天已經很詳細地談過這點，也談到我們的投資組合本身就非常深厚。因此即便我們能在有意義回收的路徑上取得進展、看到安全情勢改善、看到財政條款改善，它仍必須在我們的投資組合內具競爭力。

So we'll always remain open-minded. We'll always want to look, we'll want to talk, want to understand. But it's got to compete within the portfolio. And that's probably sort of nothing really sort of much new to say on that at this point.

所以我們會一直保持開放態度。我們會一直想看、想談、想了解。但它必須在投資組合內具競爭力。而就目前而言，這大概也沒有太多新的內容可補充。

I think the other question in terms of sort of the claims that we have. Again, it's not really much new to say there either. I think the one that most people point to is the CITGO sale. As you know that the Delaware courts approved a bid for CITGO, but that remains subject to appeals and OFAC approvals, and we're just not going to speculate on specific outcomes or timing there.

我想你另一個問題是關於我們的索賠。同樣地，那方面也沒有太多新內容可說。我想多數人會提到的是 CITGO 的出售案。如你所知，德拉瓦州法院已核准對 CITGO 的一項出價，但仍須經上訴程序以及 OFAC 的核准；我們不會對具體結果或時間點作任何揣測。

So it's a space we keep watching. We know what we're owed, and we'd like to see if there's a win-win solution, but it starts with basically understanding sort of a pathway to recovering what we're owed.

因此這是一個我們持續關注的領域。我們知道別人欠我們多少，我們也希望看看是否能有雙贏的解決方案，但前提是必須先釐清一條能回收我們應得款項的路徑。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士先生。今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以斷線。