Compass Inc (COMP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by, and at this time, I would like to welcome everyone to today's Compass Incorporated Q4 and full year 2024 financial results conference call.

    感謝大家的支持,現在,我謹歡迎大家參加今天的 Compass Incorporated 第四季和 2024 年全年財務業績電話會議。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Soham Bhonsle, Head of Investor Relations.

    現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Soham Bhonsle。

  • You may begin.

    你可以開始了。

  • Soham Bhonsie - Head of Investor Relations

    Soham Bhonsie - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you very much, operator, and good afternoon, everybody.

    非常感謝接線員,大家下午好。

  • And thank you for joining the Compass fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call.

    感謝您參加 Compass 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

  • Joining us today will be Robert Reffkin, our Founder and CEO; and Kalani Reelitz, our Chief Financial Officer.

    今天與我們一起參加的是我們的創辦人兼執行長 Robert Reffkin;以及我們的財務長 Kalani Reelitz。

  • In discussing our company's performance, we will refer to some non-GAAP measures.

    在討論我們公司的表現時,我們將參考一些非公認會計準則指標。

  • You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings release posted on our Investor Relations website.

    您可以在我們投資者關係網站上發布的 2024 年第四季財報中找到這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳。

  • We will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts, and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties.

    我們將根據當前預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述,並涉及風險和不確定性。

  • These statements include our guidance for the first quarter of 2025 and full year 2025, including comments related to our expected financial results, operating expenses, and free cash flow, as well as our expectations for operational achievements.

    這些聲明包括我們對 2025 年第一季和 2025 年全年的指引,包括與我們預期的財務結果、營運費用和自由現金流相關的評論,以及我們對營運成就的預期。

  • Our actual results may differ materially from these statements.

    我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。

  • You can find more information about risks and uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on our Investor Relations website.

    您可以在我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告(可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱)中找到有關可能影響我們業績的風險和不確定性以及其他因素的更多資​​訊。

  • You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements.

    您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。

  • All information in this presentation is as of today's date, February 18.

    本簡報中的所有資訊均截至今天(2 月 18 日)。

  • We expressly disclaim any obligation to update this information.

    我們明確表示不承擔更新此資訊的任何義務。

  • I will now turn the call over to Robert Reffkin.

    現在我將電話轉給羅伯特·雷夫金 (Robert Reffkin)。

  • Robert?

    羅伯特?

  • Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

    Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

  • Thank you for joining us today for our fourth-quarter conference call.

    感謝您今天參加我們的第四季電話會議。

  • Before we dive into our results, I want to take a moment to recognize all of the hard work from the entire Compass team over the past three years.

    在我們深入討論結果之前,我想花點時間來表揚整個 Compass 團隊在過去三年中的辛勤工作。

  • This team has worked tirelessly to put Compass in the position it is in today, and I am excited to showcase the true earnings potential of our platform as the market makes its way back to mid-cycle transaction levels of $5.4 million to $5.6 million existing home sales.

    這個團隊不懈努力,使 Compass 取得了今天的地位,隨著市場回到現有房屋銷售 540 萬美元至 560 萬美元的中期交易水平,我很高興展示我們平台的真正盈利潛力。

  • I'm pleased to share that in the fourth quarter, we continued to widen the gap between Compass and the industry as we increased revenue and adjusted EBITDA, accelerated our market share gains through agent count, expanded title and escrow attach rates, continued to retain agents at industry-leading levels, exceeded our OpEx targets, extended our unique inventory advantage, achieved our 2024 goal of keeping stocks comp below $130 million, and generated another quarter of positive free cash flow.

    我很高興地告訴大家,在第四季度,我們繼續擴大Compass與行業之間的差距,因為我們增加了收入並調整了EBITDA,透過代理商數量加速了我們的市場份額增長,擴大了所有權和託管附加率,繼續將代理商保持在行業領先水平,超出了我們的運營支出目標,擴大了我們獨特的庫存優勢,實現了2024年庫存。

  • These results are clear evidence that our playbook is working.

    這些結果清楚地證明我們的策略正在發揮作用。

  • As a reminder, our playbook consists of, first and foremost, controlling our organic OpEx at 3% to 4% annual growth.

    提醒一下,我們的策略首先包括控制我們的有機營運支出以每年 3% 到 4% 的速度成長。

  • Second, growing market share by adding agents organically, executing accretive M&A, and using the Compass platform to enhance agent productivity.

    其次,透過有機增加代理商、執行增值性併購以及使用 Compass 平台來提高代理商的生產力,從而擴大市場份額。

  • And lastly, expanding margin by increasing attach of mortgage and title while also incorporating our new higher-margin Christie's International Real Estate affiliate business.

    最後,透過增加抵押貸款和產權附加價值來擴大利潤,同時整合我們新的利潤率更高的佳士得國際房地產附屬業務。

  • By sticking to this playbook, we believe we can generate hundreds and hundreds of millions in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow for our shareholders as the market recovers.

    透過堅持這一策略,我們相信隨著市場復甦,我們可以為股東創造數億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和自由現金流。

  • In Q4 2024, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $16.7 million, which includes $4.2 million in M&A transaction costs, primarily related to the Christie's International Real Estate acquisition.

    2024 年第四季度,我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 1,670 萬美元,其中包括 420 萬美元的併購交易成本,主要與佳士得國際地產收購有關。

  • Excluding these transaction costs, Q4 2024 adjusted EBITDA would have been $20.9 million.

    除去這些交易成本,2024 年第四季調整後的 EBITDA 將為 2,090 萬美元。

  • Revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 25.9% year-over-year.

    第四季營收年增25.9%。

  • Total transactions and organic transactions increased by 24.1% and 15.5% year-over-year, respectively, as compared to the overall market where transactions increased by 6.8%.

    總交易量和有機交易量分別較去年同期成長 24.1% 和 15.5%,而整體市場交易量僅成長 6.8%。

  • So this means growth in Compass's total transaction count was 3.5 times faster than the market, and growth in Compass' organic transaction count was 2.3 times faster than the market.

    這意味著 Compass 的總交易數量的成長速度比市場快 3.5 倍,而 Compass 的有機交易數量的成長速度比市場快 2.3 倍。

  • In the quarter, we successfully recruited 669 principal agents organically to Compass, and quarterly principal agent retention remained at a strong 96.9%.

    本季度,我們成功為 Compass 招募了 669 名委託代理,季度委託代理保留率仍保持在 96.9% 的強勁水平。

  • For the full year 2024, we grew our net principal agent count by 3,069 agents or by 21% compared to year-end 2023.

    2024 年全年,我們的淨主要代理人數量與 2023 年底相比增加了 3,069 名,增幅為 21%。

  • Our title and escrow business continues to gain momentum.

    我們的產權和託管業務持續蓬勃發展。

  • We finished Q4 with another record quarter of T&E attached.

    我們以另一個創紀錄的差旅與費用季度結束了第四季。

  • Over the past four quarters, we've improved our attach rate by more than 800 basis points, and we have nearly quadrupled our profitability in the business year-over-year.

    在過去四個季度中,我們的附加率提高了 800 多個基點,並且我們的業務盈利能力同比增長了近四倍。

  • In 2025, we expect to drive a similar level of improvement in our T&E attach rate, which should help us to more than double adjusted EBITDA in this business year-over-year.

    到 2025 年,我們預計差旅與費用附加率將實現類似程度的提升,這將幫助我們實現該業務調整後的 EBITDA 年比增長一倍以上。

  • Revenue less commissions and other related expenses as a percentage of revenue in the fourth quarter was 17.47%.

    第四季收入減去佣金和其他相關費用佔收入的百分比為17.47%。

  • Had the Christie's International Real Estate transaction been consolidated into our P&L for Q4, we would have expected this metric to be approximately 18.2%.

    如果佳士得國際房地產交易合併到我們第四季的損益表中,我們預期這項指標約為 18.2%。

  • And we believe this metric will be higher than 18.2% in the full year 2025.

    我們預計,到 2025 年全年這項指標將高於 18.2%。

  • Over the long term, we can expand our margins for a few reasons.

    從長遠來看,我們可以擴大利潤率,原因有幾個。

  • First, we will continue to get credit from our agents on the increasing value we provide to them and their clients through the Compass platform.

    首先,我們將繼續透過 Compass 平台為代理商及其客戶提供不斷增加的價值,從而獲得代理商的信任。

  • We will also continue to hire up-and-coming agents who are productive but also have better economics than the top-producing agents.

    我們也將繼續聘用那些不僅工作高效而且經濟狀況比頂級代理商更好的新興代理商。

  • As we stated in early 2022, agents producing below $150,000 in annual revenue generated approximately 900 basis points more margin for Compass than million-dollar-plus agents.

    正如我們在 2022 年初所說的那樣,年收入低於 15 萬美元的代理商為 Compass 創造的利潤比年收入百萬美元以上的代理商高出約 900 個基點。

  • Second, we continue to increase margins from our ongoing expansion of high-margin integrated services like title and escrow.

    其次,我們不斷擴大產權和託管等高利潤的綜合服務,進而持續提高利潤率。

  • And lastly, with Christie's International Real Estate acquisition closed as of January 13, we now plan to plan to expand the high-margin affiliate business and believe we have a long runway for growth in this business.

    最後,隨著佳士得國際房地產收購案於 1 月 13 日完成,我們現在計劃擴大高利潤的附屬業務,並相信這項業務還有很長的成長空間。

  • When compared to the current leader in the luxury real estate franchise business, we believe that we can more than five times the number of domestic Christie's International Real Estate affiliates over time.

    與目前豪華房地產特許經營業務的領導者相比,我們相信,隨著時間的推移,我們可以將國內佳士得國際地產分支機構的數量增加五倍以上。

  • And as a reminder, this is a 30% to 35% adjusted EBITDA margin business for us.

    提醒一下,對我們來說,這是一項調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 30% 至 35% 的業務。

  • Now, moving on to our view of 2025 and beyond.

    現在,讓我們來談談 2025 年及以後的展望。

  • On the last call, I shared that whether you have a bearish or bullish view on the housing market, we are building a company that succeeds in any scenario.

    在上次電話會議中,我說過,無論您對房地產市場持悲觀看法還是樂觀看法,我們都在打造一家在任何情況下都能取得成功的公司。

  • In Q4, we grew quarterly market share by 65 basis points year-over-year, reflecting an increase from 4.41% to 5.06% and our highest year-over-year increase in quarterly market share in the past 12 quarters.

    第四季度,我們的季度市佔率年增了 65 個基點,從 4.41% 成長到 5.06%,創下了過去 12 個季度以來的最高季度市佔率年增率。

  • Furthermore, our Q1 revenue guide, excluding Christie's International Real Estate, equates to more than 25% growth year-over-year at the midpoint.

    此外,我們的第一季營收指南(不包括佳士得國際地產)相當於年增 25% 以上。

  • It implies transaction growth of more than 20% year-over-year versus a Pending Home Sales index that is down 5.5% in December 2024 for NAR.

    這意味著交易量將年增 20% 以上,而 NAR 的待售房屋銷售指數在 2024 年 12 月下降了 5.5%。

  • In January, single-family Pending Home Sales that are down 5% on average year-over-year for Altos Research.

    根據 Altos Research 統計,1 月單戶住宅待售房屋銷售量較去年同期平均下降 5%。

  • This is evidence that the gap between Compass and the industry is widening.

    這證明康帕斯與產業之間的差距正在擴大。

  • I view our outperformance to the market in Q4 and expected outperformance in Q1 to be a reflection that, despite higher mortgage rates and the volatile environment, the company's structural advantages and initiatives around OpEx containment are working.

    我認為,我們在第四季度的優異表現和第一季的預期優異表現反映出,儘管抵押貸款利率上升且環境動盪,但公司在控制營運支出方面的結構性優勢和舉措正在發揮作用。

  • As we look to 2025 and beyond, the gap between Compass and the industry will only accelerate, driven by what I see is the beginning of a structural change in the brokerage industry that will favor Compass.

    展望 2025 年及以後,Compass 與產業之間的差距只會越來越大,這是因為在我看來,經紀業將開始發生有利於 Compass 的結構性變化。

  • The structural change is driven by the fact that NAR will no longer be able to have anti-competitive rules that prevent large brokerages and top agents from competing freely and gaining market share.

    這項結構性變化是由於 NAR 將不再能夠制定反競爭規則,阻止大型經紀公司和頂級代理商自由競爭並獲得市場份額。

  • Specifically, this NAR's revenue model is based on the number of agents in the industry paying dues.

    具體來說,該NAR的收入模式是基於產業內繳納會費的代理商數量。

  • I believe they don't want large brokerages and top agents to gain market share because it would result in less agents in the industry and less revenue from agent dues.

    我認為他們不希望大型經紀公司和頂級經紀人獲得市場份額,因為這會導致行業中的經紀人減少,經紀人費用減少。

  • NAR's rules artificially propped up the least experienced agents and the smallest brokerages, resulting in the number of agents in the US, increasing nearly 100% since the year 2000, while during the same time period, the US population grew only 20%, and the number of annual home sales declined by 20%.

    NAR的規則人為地扶持了最沒有經驗的經紀人和規模最小的經紀公司,導緻美國經紀人的數量自2000年以來增長了近100%,而在同一時期,美國人口僅增長了20%,每年的房屋銷售數量下降了20%。

  • However, post NAR's settlement as of August 17, with the MLSs no longer requiring listing agents to pay buyer agents and NAR's Clear Cooperation Policy no longer being enforced in nearly half of our markets as MLS CEOs increasingly realize the liability they face from enforcing this anti-competitive policy, the artificial market restraints that limited market share gains for the best agents and the best brokerages are now gone.

    然而,自 8 月 17 日 NAR 達成和解協議後,MLS 不再要求掛牌代理商向買方代理商支付費用,而且 NAR 的「明確合作政策」在近一半的市場中不再執行,因為 MLS 執行長越來越意識到執行這項反競爭政策所面臨的責任,限制最佳代理商和最佳經紀公司獲得市場份額的人為市場約束現在已經消失。

  • As a result, the cream will rise to the top faster than ever before in our industry, which should disproportionately benefit Compass because we have the best agents in the industry.

    因此,我們行業的精英將比以前更快地脫穎而出,這將為 Compass 帶來巨大好處,因為我們擁有業內最優秀的代理商。

  • Let me share some data that illustrates this point.

    讓我分享一些數據來說明這一點。

  • As reported recently by RISMedia, the gap in income between an agent with less than three years of experience and 10-plus years of experience is 20% larger post the MLS rule change.

    根據 RISMedia 最近報道,MLS 規則改變後,經驗不足 3 年的經紀人和經驗超過 10 年的經紀人之間的收入差距擴大了 20%。

  • Per this study before August 17, the commission delta between an agent with less than three years of experience and an agent with 10-plus years of experience was relatively flat at just 12 basis points.

    根據 8 月 17 日之前的研究,經驗少於 3 年的經紀人與經驗超過 10 年的經紀人之間的佣金差距相對平穩,僅為 12 個基點。

  • But post the settlement, it has now moved to 85 basis points.

    但協議達成後,利率已升至 85 個基點。

  • This makes sense.

    這是有道理的。

  • Just think about other professional advisory businesses like law, for example.

    例如,想想其他專業諮詢業務,例如法律。

  • Lawyers with one year of experience don't get paid the same as lawyers with 10 years of experience, and lawyers at small law firms don't get paid the same as lawyers at big national law firms.

    具有一年工作經驗的律師獲得的報酬與具有十年工作經驗的律師獲得的報酬不同,並且小型律師事務所的律師獲得的報酬與大型全國性律師事務所的律師獲得的報酬不同。

  • To highlight this point in a different way, before August 17, an agent with one year of experience at a small brokerage firm could go to a buyer and say, let me take you out to see properties.

    換個方式來強調這一點,8 月 17 日之前,一家小型經紀公司有一年經驗的經紀人可以去找買家說,讓我帶你去看房子。

  • You don't need to sign anything.

    您不需要簽署任何東西。

  • You don't need to pay me anything because the listing agent who tends to work at a large brokerage firm has negotiated my compensation, and I can show you the same properties as everyone else.

    您不需要支付我任何費用,因為在大型經紀公司工作的上市代理商已經協商好了我的報酬,我可以向您展示與其他人相同的房產。

  • This is the reason why new agents almost always work with buyers over sellers because buyers, unlike sellers, didn't have to sign anything and weren't asked to pay their agents anything directly.

    這就是為什麼新代理商幾乎總是與買家而不是賣家合作的原因,因為與賣家不同,買家不必簽署任何東西,也不需要直接向代理商支付任何費用。

  • But post August 17, that same inexperienced agent now must say to the buyer, you need to sign a buyer representation agreement before I can show you properties.

    但 8 月 17 日之後,同一位缺乏經驗的經紀人現在必須對買家說,你需要簽署一份買家代理協議,然後我才能向你展示房產。

  • We need to agree on my compensation up front.

    我們需要事先就我的薪酬達成一致。

  • And if asked, they would have to tell their client that they don't have access to the same properties as the larger brokerages that have access to a larger pool of listings.

    如果被問到,他們必須告訴客戶,他們無法獲得與擁有大量房源的大型經紀公司相同的房產。

  • As a result of this and with experienced agents disproportionately working at the larger brokerages as opposed to the over 60,000 small brokerages, I expect the market share of large brokerages to increase going forward.

    由於這個原因,而且與超過 60,000 家小型經紀公司相比,經驗豐富的經紀人主要在大型經紀公司工作,我預計大型經紀公司的市場份額未來會增加。

  • In the future, the free market will reward the best agents and the best brokerages with the highest pay just like it does with the best lawyers and law firms.

    將來,自由市場會像獎勵最好的律師和律師事務所一樣,給最好的經紀人、最好的經紀公司最高的報酬。

  • The best agents are going to thrive in the new future.

    最優秀的代理商將會在新的未來蓬勃發展。

  • They're going to gain more market share and earn more money, which is ultimately best for the consumer because unlike NAR which gets paid per agent, the consumer doesn't want an industry of over 1.5 million agents.

    他們將獲得更多的市場份額並賺取更多的錢,這最終對消費者來說是最好的,因為與按代理商付費的 NAR 不同,消費者並不想要一個擁有超過 150 萬代理商的行業。

  • The consumer just wants to work with the best agents.

    消費者只想與最好的代理商合作。

  • This is good.

    這很好。

  • This is right.

    這是對的。

  • This is not unfair.

    這並非不公平。

  • Letting agents and brokerages compete freely is ultimately in the best interest of the consumer.

    讓代理商和經紀公司自由競爭最終符合消費者的最大利益。

  • Now, moving on to our structural advantages.

    現在,我們來談談我們的結構優勢。

  • As discussed in the past, Compass has invested in four structural advantages, and these advantages relate to the broader changes that are occurring in the industry, which position us to accelerate share gains in the years to come.

    正如過去所討論的,Compass 投資了四個結構性優勢,這些優勢與行業正在發生的更廣泛的變化相關,這使我們能夠在未來幾年加速份額成長。

  • These structural advantages include, one, our end-to-end platform where we recently launched tools like Reverse Prospecting, Make Me Sell, and Compass One, the industry's first all-in-one client dashboard that gives 24/7 transparency into every step of the transaction for buyers and sellers; two, our national scale; three, our network of top agents; and four, our depth of inventory in local markets.

    這些結構性優勢包括:第一,我們的端到端平台,我們最近推出了諸如 Reverse Prospecting、Make Me Sell 和 Compass One 等工具,這是業界第一個一體化客戶端儀表板,可為買家和賣家提供交易每一步的 24/7 透明度;二是我們的國家規模;三、我們的頂級代理商網路;第四,我們在當地市場的庫存深度。

  • Given how important inventory is to our strategy going forward, I want to close with a few minutes on this last advantage.

    鑑於庫存對我們未來策略的重要性,我想用幾分鐘來談談最後一個優勢。

  • First, it's important to understand that depth of inventory, not breadth, is what's critical as we create unique inventory through programs such as the Compass three-phase marketing strategy that benefits our agents and our clients.

    首先,重要的是要了解,庫存的深度而不是廣度才是關鍵,因為我們透過諸如 Compass 三階段行銷策略之類的計劃創建獨特的庫存,這使我們的代理商和客戶受益。

  • Second, by growing our unique inventory and marrying that with our end-to-end platform, which has agent-level search and consumer search at a level that no other brokerage firm in the industry has, we believe more and more buyers will search Compass.com and use Compass agents as it will be known that Compass has more inventory than any other website or brokerage.

    其次,透過擴大我們獨特的庫存並​​將其與我們的端到端平台相結合,該平台具有代理商級搜尋和消費者搜尋功能,其水平是業內其他經紀公司所不具備的,我們相信越來越多的買家會搜尋 Compass.com 並使用 Compass 代理商,因為眾所周知,Compass 擁有比任何其他網站或經紀公司都要多的庫存。

  • As an early proof point that consumers are seeing value in the Compass three-phase marketing strategy, here are a few data points to consider.

    作為消費者看到 Compass 三階段行銷策略的價值的早期證明點,這裡有幾個數據點需要考慮。

  • As of February 16, 2025, homeowners are marking more than 7,500 listings as a Compass Private Exclusive or a Compass Coming Soon, which are only available by working with the Compass agent or by searching Compass.com.

    截至 2025 年 2 月 16 日,房主已將 7,500 多個房源標記為“Compass 私人專屬”或“Compass 即將推出”,這些房源只有透過與 Compass 代理商合作或搜尋 Compass.com 才能獲得。

  • Roughly half of the Compass Private Exclusives and Compass Coming Soon listings were above a $1 million list price, with the other half being below the $1 million list price.

    Compass Private Exclusives 和 Compass Coming Soon 掛牌出售的房產中,約有一半的標價高於 100 萬美元,而另一半的標價低於 100 萬美元。

  • This shows that this strategy is resonating with homeowners across all price points.

    這表明這一策略得到了各個價位房主的共鳴。

  • Of Compass' 22,138 listings, approximately 35% currently are a Compass Private Exclusive or Compass Coming Soon, and we have several markets where this is above 50%.

    在 Compass 的 22,138 個清單中,目前約有 35% 是 Compass 私人獨家或 Compass 即將推出,並且我們有幾個市場的這一比例超過 50%。

  • Moreover, we are seeing rapid adoption of the Compass three-phase marketing strategy, with 55% of new listings so far this month of February starting off as a Compass Private Exclusive or a Compass Coming Soon.

    此外,我們看到 Compass 三階段行銷策略正在迅速普及,截至 2 月份,55% 的新房源都是以 Compass Private Exclusive 或 Compass Coming Soon 的形式推出的。

  • The 35% we cited is consistent with other data points because even without marketing the benefits of off-MLS listings today, third-party studies show strong homeowner demand for starting off-MLS.

    我們引用的 35% 與其他數據點一致,因為即使今天不行銷非 MLS 房源的優勢,第三方研究也顯示房主對啟動非 MLS 房產的需求強勁。

  • For instance, the largest private listing network in the country is actually MRED, the MLS of Illinois.

    例如,美國最大的私人上市網路實際上是伊利諾伊州的 MLS MRED。

  • And 21% of all their closed listings between 2022 and 2024 started in their private listing network, largely to test price privately.

    2022 年至 2024 年間,他們所有已關閉的房源中,有 21% 都是從私人房源網路開始的,主要是為了私下測試價格。

  • Furthermore, a recent study from Zillow showed that 31% of respondents initially said they would prefer to have their property listed on a private listing network if they were selling a home.

    此外,Zillow 最近的一項研究顯示,31% 的受訪者最初表示,如果他們出售房屋,他們更願意將自己的房產列在私人房源網路上。

  • And lastly, another recent study from a research firm, 1000WATT, showed that 35% of prospective sellers who were offered a choice between listing directly on the MLS or initially listing off the MLS said they would choose to list their property off MLS.

    最後,研究公司 1000WATT 最近進行的另一項研究表明,當潛在賣家可以選擇直接在 MLS 上掛牌出售房產或先在 MLS 之外掛牌出售房產時,35% 的人表示他們會選擇在 MLS 之外掛牌出售房產。

  • We believe the Compass three-phase marketing strategy delivers better outcomes for homeowners, including fewer days on market and fewer price drops once on the MLS and available on the portal website.

    我們相信,Compass 的三階段行銷策略將為房主帶來更好的結果,包括減少上市天數以及在 MLS 上和入口網站上出售後的降價幅度。

  • To test this thesis, we looked at all close combat sell-side residential transactions that were ultimately marketed on the MLS from January 1, 2024, through the end of December 2024.

    為了驗證這一論點,我們查看了 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 12 月底在 MLS 上銷售的所有近距離賣方住宅交易。

  • And we compared Compass listings that were pre-marketed as Compass Private Exclusives or Compass Coming Soon to Compass listings that were not pre-marketed.

    我們也將預先行銷為 Compass Private Exclusives 或 Compass Coming Soon 的 Compass 清單與未預先行銷的 Compass 清單進行了比較。

  • What we saw was that for closed sell-side residential transactions across all price points and all property types nationally, properties where the homeowner chose to pre-market as a Compass Private Exclusive or Compass Coming Soon before going active on the MLS received and accepted offer 20% faster on average or eight days faster on average once active on the MLS than Compass listings without pre-marketing, and it created value for homeowners as only 13% of Compass listings on average that were pre-marketed had a price drop compared to 19% for Compass listings without pre-marketing, which means approximately 30% fewer listings took a price drop once active on the MLS.

    我們發現,對於全國範圍內所有價位和所有房產類型的已完成賣方住宅交易,如果房主在 MLS 上線之前選擇以 Compass Private Exclusive 或 Compass Coming Soon 進行預售,那麼與未進行預售的 Compass 房源相比,其收到和接受報價房主的速度平均快 20%,在 MLS 上線後只有 38 天的價格未進行預售的 Compass 房源價格下降的比例為 19%,這意味著在 MLS 上線後價格下降的房源減少了約 30%。

  • I want to emphasize that these trends also held at lower price points as we saw consistent improvements when looking at closed prices below $1 million as well.

    我想強調的是,這些趨勢在較低的價格點也保持了下來,因為我們在查看低於 100 萬美元的成交價時也看到了持續的改善。

  • While these findings are encouraging, Compass' team of data scientists, which is led by Dave Crosby, a 20-year Microsoft veteran, also completed a study to better understand the relationship between closed price and pre-marketing as the Compass Private Exclusive and/or Compass Coming Soon before going active on the MLS.

    雖然這些發現令人鼓舞,但由在微軟工作 20 年的戴夫·克羅斯比 (Dave Crosby) 領導的 Compass 數據科學家團隊還完成了一項研究,以更好地了解成交價與在 MLS 上線前的預營銷(Compass Private Exclusive 和/或 Compass Coming Soon)之間的關係。

  • This analysis examined all Compass residential closed sell-side transactions in 2024 nationally and for all residential property types.

    該分析考察了 2024 年全國所有住宅物業類型的 Compass 住宅完成的賣方交易。

  • What we found was that homes pre-marketed as Compass Private Exclusives and/or Compass Coming Soon before going to the MLS were associated with a 2.9% higher average closed price compared to Compass sold properties that were not pre-marketed in 2024.

    我們發現,在進入 MLS 之前預先以 Compass Private Exclusives 和/或 Compass Coming Soon 形式銷售的房屋,與 2024 年未經預先營銷的 Compass 出售的房產相比,平均成交價高出 2.9%。

  • This means that homeowners who chose to pre-market their home with a Compass agent at Compass' average price point of roughly $1 million were likely to have realized a $29,000 premium in the sale of what is often the most valuable asset in people's lives compared to those who listed directly on the MLS.

    這意味著,與直接在 MLS 上掛牌出售房屋的房主相比,選擇透過 Compass 代理商以大約 100 萬美元的平均價格預先推銷房屋的房主,在出售往往是人們一生中最有價值資產時,可能會多獲得 29,000 美元的溢價。

  • We believe this is a strong proof point that homeowners who choose to market with a Compass three-phase marketing strategy see better results.

    我們相信,這是一個有力的證明,證明選擇採用 Compass 三階段行銷策略進行行銷的房主會獲得更好的結果。

  • These results are not a surprise to us as the Compass three-phase marketing strategy is based on what homebuilders and residential developers do every day, and they are the most sophisticated and profit-driven sellers of homes in the industry.

    這些結果對我們來說並不意外,因為 Compass 三階段行銷策略是基於房屋建築商和住宅開發商每天所做的事情,而他們是業內最老練、最以利潤為導向的房屋賣家。

  • The reason homebuilders list off the MLS is to protect their listings from days on market and public price drop history and to ensure that all buyer inquiries are directed to the listing agent that they hired.

    房屋建築商在 MLS 之外掛牌出售房屋的原因是為了保護他們的房源不受上市天數和公開價格下跌歷史的影響,並確保所有買家的詢問都直接發送給他們僱用的掛牌代理商。

  • Compass Coming Soon and Compass Private Exclusives provide these same advantages to homeowners as well.

    Compass Coming Soon 和 Compass Private Exclusives 也為房主提供同樣的優勢。

  • So it's not a surprise that home listings that were protected from having negative insights on them like days on market and price drop history sell for more than homes that have negative insights on them.

    因此,那些沒有受到負面評價(例如上市天數和價格下跌歷史)影響的房屋賣得比有負面評價的房屋更高,這並不奇怪。

  • And it's also not a surprise that listings that are able to direct buyer inquiries to the listing agent who knows the home the best sell for more than listings that direct buyer inquiries to the highest bidder, in fact, sell the leads to the highest bidder, an agent who doesn't know the know the property as well and who may redirect that buyer to another home.

    並且,能夠將買家詢問引導至最了解房屋的代理商的房源,其銷量要高於將買家詢問引導至最高出價者的房源,這也不足為奇,事實上,這些房源會將買家線索賣給最高出價者,而最高出價者是不太了解該房產的代理商,他可能會將買家引導至另一套房子。

  • Homebuilders and developers sold hundreds of thousands of homes off the MLS last year to ensure that negative insights aren't on their listings and ensure all buyers go to the listing agent, neither of which happens when the homeowners list on the portals.

    去年,房屋建築商和開發商透過 MLS 銷售了數十萬套房屋,以確保他們的房源資訊不會出現負面訊息,並確保所有買家都去找掛牌代理商,而當房主在門戶網站上掛牌出售房屋時,這兩件事都不會發生。

  • You're going to hear all of these stakeholders say that homes sell for more on MLS.

    你會聽到所有這些利害關係人說房屋在 MLS 上賣得更多。

  • How is it possible that homes could sell for more on the MLS if homebuilders and developers are selling hundreds of thousands of homes off MLS?

    如果房屋建築商和開發商在 MLS 上銷售數十萬套房屋,那麼這些房屋怎麼可能在 MLS 上賣出更高的價格?

  • Again, they are the smartest, most sophisticated, most profit-driven people in real estate.

    再說一遍,他們是房地產界最聰明、最老練、最以獲利為目的的人。

  • As a reminder, NAR's Clear Cooperation Policy carves out homebuilders and developers from having to comply, so they can market their properties off the MLS freely as they see fit.

    提醒一下,NAR 的「明確合作政策」免除了房屋建築商和開發商的遵守義務,因此他們可以根據自己的意願自由地在 MLS 上銷售房產。

  • What we are doing with the Compass three-phase marketing strategy is simply giving individual homeowners the same marketing playbook of the homebuilders and developers and giving additional support through agents to act in the best interest of their clients.

    我們採用的 Compass 三階段行銷策略只是為個人房主提供與房屋建築商和開發商相同的行銷策略,並透過代理商提供額外支持,以符合客戶的最佳利益。

  • Given the improvement in price we have observed from pre-marketing, we believe this puts more pressure on NAR and MLSs to avoid liability by ending Clear Cooperation immediately.

    鑑於我們從預行銷中觀察到的價格上漲,我們相信這會對 NAR 和 MLS 造成更大壓力,迫使他們立即終止清晰合作,以避免承擔責任。

  • NAR's Clear Cooperation Policy harms homeowner value by taking away homeowner choice to publicly pre-market their homes off the MLS with their agents.

    NAR 的「明確合作政策」剝奪了房主與其代理商在 MLS 上公開預先推銷房屋的選擇權,損害了房主的價值。

  • In the United States of America, a trade group should not be allowed to force every homeowner in the country to sell their most valuable asset at a discount.

    在美國,貿易集團不應該被允許強迫全國的每個房主以折扣價出售他們最有價值的資產。

  • This fact pattern gives the active DOJ investigation into Clear Cooperation even more merit.

    這一事實模式使得司法部對 Clear Cooperation 的積極調查更具價值。

  • Consumer protection requires consumer choice, and Clear Cooperation takes away consumer choice.

    消費者保護需要消費者的選擇,而 Clear Cooperation 卻剝奪了消費者的選擇權。

  • Over the coming months, as we continue to activate the Compass three-phase marketing strategy more broadly across our markets, we expect to be able to show the ability to create positive outcomes for homeowners as well as better agent retention, higher agent productivity, more agent growth from recruiting, and more traffic to Compass' website.

    在接下來的幾個月裡,隨著我們繼續在各個市場更廣泛地啟動 Compass 三階段行銷策略,我們希望能夠展現出為房主創造積極成果的能力,同時實現更好的代理商保留率、更高的代理商生產力、透過招聘實現更多的代理商成長,以及為 Compass 網站帶來更多的流量。

  • Ultimately, our North Star is to use our depth of inventory to create better outcomes for sellers, buyers, and our agents, which should translate to better outcomes for Compass and our shareholders.

    最終,我們的北極星是利用我們的庫存深度為賣家、買家和我們的代理商創造更好的結果,這將轉化為 Compass 和我們的股東的更好結果。

  • Now, let me hand it over to Kalani to go through our financials in more detail.

    現在,讓我將話題交給卡拉尼,讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務狀況。

  • Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

    Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Robert.

    謝謝你,羅伯特。

  • Summarizing our financial results for the quarter, our fourth quarter revenue was $1.38 billion, an increase of 25.9% from the year-ago period, which exceeded the high end of our original guidance range of $1.225 billion to $1.325 billion, just above the midpoint of the updated guidance we issued on January 15. 20.9% of this revenue growth was attributed to organic growth, while 5% came from M&A.

    總結本季的財務業績,我們的第四季度營收為 13.8 億美元,較去年同期增長 25.9%,超過了我們最初預期範圍 12.25 億美元至 13.25 億美元的高端,略高於我們在 1 月 15 日發布的最新預期的中收點。

  • Gross transaction value was $54 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of 29.2% from a year ago, reflecting the 24.1% increase in total transactions combined with a 4% increase in our average selling price.

    第四季總交易額為 540 億美元,比去年同期成長 29.2%,其中總交易量成長 24.1%,平均售價成長 4%。

  • Our commissions and other related expenses as a percent of revenue was 82.53%, an increase of 82 basis points compared to Q4 of last year at 81.71%.

    我們的佣金和其他相關費用佔收入的百分比為 82.53%,比去年第四季的 81.71% 增加了 82 個基點。

  • In-year M&A drove about a quarter of this change, and the balance came from geographic product and agents mix.

    年內的併購推動了這項變化的四分之一左右,其餘則來自地理產品和代理商組合。

  • In the last year, we have seen M&A of lower-margin brokerages impact our margin, but we are happy to see this trend reverse with Christie's International Real Estate, which has higher margins than Compass overall.

    去年,我們看到利潤率較低的經紀公司的併購對我們的利潤率產生了影響,但我們很高興看到這種趨勢隨著佳士得國際地產的逆轉而出現,其利潤率整體高於Compass。

  • It's important to note that total agent economics on a per-agent level improved in 2024 and were flat in Q4 year-over-year.

    值得注意的是,以每個代理商計算的代理商總經濟效益在 2024 年有所改善,並且在第四季度同比持平。

  • However, higher-producing agents are gaining market share in the current environment, and since they are on the better end of the split schedules, we may see some split degradation in that cohort, offset by integrated services and affiliate revenue.

    然而,在當前環境下,高產代理商的市場份額正在不斷擴大,而且由於他們在拆分計劃中處於較好的位置,我們可能會看到該群體的拆分有所下降,但會被綜合服務和附屬收入所抵消。

  • However, the split is only the percentage.

    但分割僅僅是百分比。

  • The net dollar amount we retain after paying out commissions will be higher as we take more share.

    隨著我們佔有的份額越來越大,支付佣金後我們保留的淨美元金額將會更高。

  • Turning to OpEx, our total non-GAAP operating expenses were $224.4 million in Q4, a slight increase of $800,000 from $223.6 million of OpEx from the year-ago period.

    談到營運支出,我們第四季的非 GAAP 營運支出總額為 2.244 億美元,較去年同期的 2.236 億美元營運支出略有增加 80 萬美元。

  • While a slight increase, keep in mind that the current-year amount of OpEx is after considering added expenses we assumed from the M&A completed since the year-ago period.

    雖然略有增加,但請記住,本年度的營運支出金額是在考慮了我們假設的自去年同期完成的併購帶來的額外費用之後的。

  • Additionally, we incurred about $4 million of M&A transaction expenses in Q4.

    此外,我們在第四季發生了約 400 萬美元的併購交易費用。

  • So adjusting for these two items, our Q4 OpEx was actually lower than Q4 a year ago by around $12 million or 5%, reflecting continued strong cost discipline.

    因此,調整這兩項後,我們第四季的營運支出實際上比去年同期低了約 1,200 萬美元,即 5%,反映出我們持續嚴格的成本控制。

  • For the full year, I am pleased to share that we not only met but exceeded our original OpEx guidance range, with our full-year OpEx coming in $8 million below the low end of our guidance range of $876 million to $896 million and $56 million lower year-over-year.

    就全年而言,我很高興地告訴大家,我們不僅達到而且超出了我們最初的營運支出指導範圍,全年營運支出比我們 8.76 億美元至 8.96 億美元的指導範圍低端低 800 萬美元,比去年同期低 5,600 萬美元。

  • Notably, the year-over-year improvement in our full year 2024 OpEx was achieved in a period where we grew transactions by 14.7% year-over-year.

    值得注意的是,我們 2024 年全年營運支出的年增率是在我們交易量年增 14.7% 的時期內實現的。

  • Principal agent count grew 21% year-over-year.

    首席代理商數量較去年同期成長21%。

  • For 2025, we remain steadfast in our focus around OpEx and are guiding to 3% to 4% OpEx growth, excluding M&A, consistent with our stated goals last year.

    展望 2025 年,我們將繼續堅定不移地專注於營運支出,並預期營運支出(不包括併購)成長率為 3% 至 4%,這與我們去年提出的目標一致。

  • Consistent with my comments last quarter, it's worth a reminder that we view some of the room created from our overperformance on OpEx reductions to invest in our key growth areas of technology and title and escrow entities.

    與我上個季度的評論一致,值得提醒的是,我們認為,我們在營運支出削減方面的超額表現創造了一些空間,可以用於投資於技術、產權和託管實體等我們的關鍵成長領域。

  • Our adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $16.7 million, which was above the high end of our original guidance range and at the midpoint of the updated range we issued on January 15 and a strong improvement from a loss of $23.7 million a year ago.

    我們第四季度的調整後 EBITDA 為 1670 萬美元,高於我們最初指導範圍的高位,並且處於我們於 1 月 15 日發布的更新範圍的中點,與去年同期 2370 萬美元的虧損相比有大幅改善。

  • GAAP net loss was $40.5 million in Q4 compared to the GAAP net loss of $83.7 million a year ago.

    第四季 GAAP 淨虧損為 4,050 萬美元,而去年同期 GAAP 淨虧損為 8,370 萬美元。

  • This improvement was driven by the increase in adjusted EBITDA but also lower stock-based compensation expense, which was $31 million in the quarter compared to $36 million in Q4 of last year.

    這項改善主要得益於調整後 EBITDA 的成長以及股票薪資支出的下降,本季股票薪酬支出為 3,100 萬美元,而去年同期為 3,600 萬美元。

  • As a reminder, the non-GAAP operating expenses we refer to omit certain expenses that we exclude from the calculations of adjusted EBITDA, including stock-based compensation and depreciation and amortization.

    提醒一下,我們所指的非 GAAP 營業費用忽略了我們在計算調整後 EBITDA 時排除的某些費用,包括股票薪酬以及折舊和攤提。

  • And as always, we've included tables on Pages 13 and 15 in our Q4 investor deck that reconcile these amounts to our GAAP operating expenses.

    像往常一樣,我們在第四季度投資者報告的第 13 頁和第 15 頁加入了表格,將這些金額與我們的 GAAP 營運費用進行調整。

  • Because of our OpEx discipline, which, as we've said previously, is permanent, not temporary, we delivered free cash flow in every single quarter in 2024 and have now been free cash flow positive for six of the last seven quarters during a period of time that reflect a trough level of transaction environment of $4 million annual existing home sales.

    由於我們的營運支出紀律(正如我們之前所說,它是永久性的,而不是暫時的),我們在 2024 年的每個季度都實現了自由現金流,並且在過去七個季度中,有六個季度的自由現金流為正,而這反映了交易環境的低谷,即每年 400 萬美元的現有房屋銷售額。

  • We generated $26.7 million in free cash flow in the fourth quarter.

    我們在第四季產生了 2670 萬美元的自由現金流。

  • And importantly, we are guiding to another year of solidly positive free cash flow in 2025.

    重要的是,我們預計 2025 年自由現金流將再次保持穩健的正成長。

  • Our free cash flow during the fourth quarter was extremely strong compared to the negative free cash flow of $41 million last year.

    與去年 4,100 萬美元的負自由現金流相比,我們第四季的自由現金流非常強勁。

  • We did not expect to deliver positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter due to seasonally weaker period.

    由於季節性疲軟時期,我們預計第四季不會實現正自由現金流。

  • However, as a result of the overperformance of revenue and adjusted EBITDA, combined with some favorable timing of working capital changes in the quarter, we converted 160% of our adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow in Q4.

    然而,由於收入和調整後 EBITDA 的表現優異,再加上本季營運資本變動的一些有利時機,我們在第四季將 160% 的調整後 EBITDA 轉換為自由現金流。

  • We were very pleased with this performance, although we generally consider 70% to 80% to be the normal free cash flow conversion range after considering CapEx and some other items.

    我們對這一表現非常滿意,儘管我們通常認為考慮資本支出和其他一些項目後,70%到80%是正常的自由現金流轉換範圍。

  • Since it's the fourth quarter, I'll summarize a few of our full-year financial data points before moving into Q1 guidance.

    因為現在是第四季度,所以在進入第一季指引之前,我將總結一些全年財務數據點。

  • First, revenue for the full year of 2024 was $5.6 billion, an increase of 15%.

    首先,2024年全年營收為56億美元,成長15%。

  • That's an additional $740 million of revenue in what has been a very challenging market.

    在這個極具挑戰性的市場中,這意味著額外的 7.4 億美元收入。

  • Adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2024 was $126 million, which is a new Compass record for this metric and an improvement of $165 million over negative adjusted EBITDA of $39 million in 2023.

    2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 為 1.26 億美元,創下了 Compass 這項指標的新紀錄,比 2023 年 3,900 萬美元的負調整後 EBITDA 改善了 1.65 億美元。

  • And finally, free cash flow was $106 million for the full year, which is not only an all-time high for free cash flow, but importantly, this marks the first year in Compass' history where we delivered positive free cash flow for the full year.

    最後,全年自由現金流為 1.06 億美元,這不僅是自由現金流的歷史最高水平,而且重要的是,這是 Compass 歷史上第一次全年實現正自由現金流。

  • Free cash flow, excluding our NAR settlement this year, would have been $135 million.

    自由現金流(不包括今年的 NAR 和解金)將達到 1.35 億美元。

  • We ended the fourth quarter with $234 million of cash and cash equivalents on our balance sheet, and as of December 31, we had no outstanding draws on our revolving line of credit.

    截至第四季度,我們的資產負債表上有 2.34 億美元的現金和現金等價物,截至 12 月 31 日,我們的循環信用額度上沒有未償還的提款。

  • During January, we did draw $50 million off of our revolver and used $100 million of our balance sheet to fund the $150 million cash portion of the Christie's International Real Estate purchase price.

    一月份,我們確實從循環信貸中提取了 5,000 萬美元,並從資產負債表中動用了 1 億美元來支付佳士得國際地產收購價中的 1.5 億美元現金部分。

  • Turning now to financial guidance.

    現在來談談財務指引。

  • For Q1 of 2025, we expect revenue in the range of $1.35 billion to $1.475 billion, which includes the incremental revenue from Christie's International Real Estate acquisition that closed on January 13.

    對於 2025 年第一季度,我們預計營收在 13.5 億美元至 14.75 億美元之間,其中包括 1 月 13 日完成的佳士得國際地產收購帶來的增量收入。

  • As a reminder, when we announce this transaction, we expected to see about $500 million of annual revenue contribution from this transaction on a run rate basis, and we expect that revenue to follow a similar quarterly distribution to Compass's base business where Q1 is the seasonally weakest quarter and Q2 is the seasonally strongest.

    提醒一下,當我們宣布這筆交易時,我們預計這筆交易在運行率基礎上將帶來約 5 億美元的年收入貢獻,並且我們預計收入將遵循與 Compass 基礎業務類似的季度分佈,其中第一季是季節性最弱的季度,而第二季度是季節性最強的季度。

  • For Christie's International Real Estate business, the revenue less commissions and other related expenses as a percent of revenue line is higher compared to our base business.

    對於佳士得國際地產業務而言,收入減去佣金和其他相關費用佔收入的百分比高於我們的基礎業務。

  • We expect this to improve our consolidated results as we incorporate the acquisition.

    我們預計,此次收購將改善我們的綜合業績。

  • For Q1 of 2025, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $11 million to $25 million.

    對於 2025 年第一季度,我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 1,100 萬美元至 2,500 萬美元之間。

  • We remain focused on limiting OpEx to a range of 3% to 4% organically.

    我們仍然致力於將營運支出有機限制在 3% 至 4% 的範圍內。

  • As a reminder, our OpEx formula is our base OpEx plus M&A.

    提醒一下,我們的營運支出公式是基本營運支出加上併購。

  • As a result, we are targeting a range of $1.005 billion to $1.03 billion in total OpEx for 2025, which has our base OpEx growing 3% to 4% plus $10 million of wraparound OpEx from 2024 acquisitions and the addition of $105 million of OpEx from the January 2025 acquisition of Christie's International Real Estate.

    因此,我們計劃將 2025 年的總營運支出控制在 10.05 億美元至 10.3 億美元之間,其中基礎營運支出將增長 3% 至 4%,加上 2024 年收購帶來的 1000 萬美元的綜合營運支出,以及 2025 年 1 月帶來佳士得國際地產收購的 1.05 億美元的營運支出。

  • Finally, a few thoughts on free cash flow for 2025.

    最後,關於2025年自由現金流,我想談幾點看法。

  • First, for the avoidance of doubt, we will be free cash flow positive for the full year 2025.

    首先,為避免疑問,2025 年全年我們的自由現金流將為正值。

  • As we've commented previously, we generally expect to convert about 70% to 80% of adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow over the long term.

    正如我們之前所評論的那樣,我們通常預計長期內調整後的 EBITDA 的約 70% 至 80% 將轉化為自由現金流。

  • However, this percentage will fluctuate quarter to quarter and even year to year as a result of timing of working capital, seasonality, and other items such as the second NAR-related settlement payment of $29 million we'll make in the second quarter of 2025.

    但是,由於營運資金的時間表、季節性和其他項目(例如我們將在 2025 年第二季度支付的第二筆 2900 萬美元的 NAR 相關和解付款),該百分比將在每個季度甚至每年發生波動。

  • Excluding the impact of our NAR-related settlement payments in 2024, we converted 107% of adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow for the full year of 2024 and 160% in the fourth quarter.

    不包括 2024 年與 NAR 相關的和解付款的影響,我們將 2024 年全年 107% 的調整後 EBITDA 轉換為自由現金流,將第四季度的 160% 轉換為自由現金流。

  • This higher-than-average conversion was due to several working capital timing items which we moved in our favor during 2024, but which will likely reverse in 2025.

    這種高於平均的轉換是由於幾個營運資本時間安排項目,我們在 2024 年將這些項目轉移到對我們有利的位置,但到 2025 年可能會出現逆轉。

  • So in modeling cash flow, you should consider a two-year stack to adjust for these timing items.

    因此,在建模現金流時,您應該考慮兩年的堆疊來調整這些時間項目。

  • As the last point of guidance, we expect our weighted average share count for the first quarter to be between 549 million to 552 million shares.

    作為最後一點指導,我們預計第一季的加權平均股數將在 5.49 億股至 5.52 億股之間。

  • This reflects an increase of 38 million shares in January related to the minimum equity portion of the Christie's International Real Estate purchase price.

    這反映出 1 月與佳士得國際地產購買價格的最低股權部分相關的 3,800 萬股增加了。

  • Additionally, we expect incremental share count related to the settlement of employee equity awards to average about 1% of our outstanding shares each quarter.

    此外,我們預期與員工股權獎勵結算相關的增量股份數量平均每季約占我們已發行股份的 1%。

  • Stock-based compensation for Q1 is expected to be in line with Q4 at about 31 million.

    預計第一季的股票薪資將與第四季持平,約為 3,100 萬美元。

  • As I wrap up my prepared remarks, I'd like to once again extend a sincere thank you to our agents and employees for their hard work and dedication that resulted in another great quarter of results, where year-over-year, we meaningfully grew market share, agent count, attached, and At the same time, we closed out the full year of 2024 with a record level of adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.

    在結束我的準備好的發言時,我想再次向我們的代理商和員工表示誠摯的感謝,感謝他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神,使我們又取得了一個出色的季度業績,與去年同期相比,我們的市場份額、代理商數量、附加值都有顯著增長,同時,我們以創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA 和自由現金流結束了 2024 年全年。

  • We look forward to continuing our momentum in 2025 with our recent acquisitions that adds brokerage operations in Chicago and Atlanta, a new title operations in Chicago, and for the first time, a franchise operations through Christie's International Real Estate.

    我們期待在 2025 年繼續保持良好勢頭,透過最近的收購增加在芝加哥和亞特蘭大的經紀業務、在芝加哥的新產權業務,以及首次透過佳士得國際地產增加特許經營業務。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to the operator to begin Q&A.

    現在我想將電話轉給接線員開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jason Helfstein, Oppenheimer.

    (操作員指示)Jason Helfstein,奧本海默。

  • Jason Helfstein - Analyst

    Jason Helfstein - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks.

    嘿,謝謝。

  • First, Robert, really appreciate all the color around the initiatives in Exclusives and Coming Soon.

    首先,羅伯特,非常欣賞“獨家”和“即將推出”計劃中的所有精彩內容。

  • Are you starting to see, in your metrics, more agents wanting to join Compass because of this factor or potentially lower attribution?

    在您的指標中,您是否開始看到更多代理商因為這個因素或潛在的較低歸因而想要加入 Compass?

  • You did talk about retention being quite high, but just is it actually -- are these products starting to attract more agents yet?

    您確實談到保留率相當高,但實際上這些產品是否已經開始吸引更多代理商了?

  • And then just also, do you expect to grow the number of -- I guess, how do we think about growth in Christie's and properties agents in 2025?

    那麼,您是否預計數量會增加——我想,我們如何看待 2025 年佳士得和房地產經紀人的數量增長?

  • That's question one.

    這是第一個問題。

  • And then Kalani, just from a housekeeping, I think you called out there would be nine points of positive acquisition impact in first quarter.

    然後 Kalani,僅從內部管理角度來說,我認為您說過第一季的收購將帶來 9 點的正面影響。

  • Should we think about a similar impact for all of '25?

    我們是否應該考慮對整個25年產生類似的影響?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

    Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

  • Yeah, first of all, Jason, it's good to speak with you.

    是的,首先,傑森,很高興與您交談。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • On Private Exclusives and Coming Soon's impact on agents, I would say that there are clients for buyers.

    關於 Private Exclusives 和 Coming Soon 對代理商的影響,我想說的是,對於買家來說,有客戶。

  • If a developer works with an agent or a homebuilder, they often will say, can you show me what's off the MLS?

    如果開發商與代理商或房屋建築商合作,他們通常會說,您能向我展示一下 MLS 上有哪些房源嗎?

  • And they're the most sophisticated buyers and sellers in the industry.

    他們是業界最老練的買家和賣家。

  • And so, whether it's with a buyer that's a developer or an individual buyer who will say things like, please don't show me what everyone else can see.

    因此,無論買家是開發商還是個人買家,都會說這樣的話,請不要給我看其他人都能看到的東西。

  • Show me something that's unique.

    給我展示一些獨特的東西。

  • And so, agents are always looking for an edge because they want to give their clients an edge.

    因此,代理商總是在尋找優勢,因為他們想為客戶提供優勢。

  • And so, yes, Coming Soons and Private Exclusives give an edge for agents to give to their buyers as well as an edge for their sellers.

    所以,「即將推出」和「私人獨家」為代理商向買家提供了優勢,也為賣家提供了優勢。

  • The edge for their sellers, you know, we've talked a lot about it protects them from the negative insights such as days on market and price drop history.

    您知道,對於賣家來說,優勢已經討論了很多,它可以保護他們免受諸如上市天數和價格下跌歷史等負面影響。

  • It allows all the buyers to go to the listing agent they hired, not sold off as a third-party lead to the highest bidder, again, just like the developers do, so you're giving that edge that developers use for themselves to their seller.

    它允許所有買家直接向他們僱用的掛牌代理商購買房產,而不是像開發商那樣透過第三方管道將其出售給最高出價者,這樣你就將開發商為自己使用的優勢提供給了賣家。

  • And so, yes, because Compass is able to give an edge to our buyer and seller agents, which they can pass on to their clients, we are finding this as now a top reason why agents want to come to Compass.

    是的,因為 Compass 能夠為我們的買方和賣方代理商帶來優勢,他們可以將這種優勢傳遞給他們的客戶,我們發現這是代理商想要選擇 Compass 的首要原因。

  • I believe this year, Compass will be known as the company that protected homeowner value by giving the playbook that homebuilders give to themselves to the individual seller of homes.

    我相信今年,Compass 將被稱為一家保護房主價值的公司,它將房屋建築商自己制定的劇本提供給個人房屋賣家。

  • And that's something that really resonates with listing agents because they have a fiduciary duty to do what's in the best interest of their sellers.

    這確實引起了掛牌代理商的共鳴,因為他們負有受託責任,並且要盡最大努力滿足賣家的利益。

  • And that fiduciary duty is being compromised by rules like Clear Cooperation that forces them to a one-size-fits-all approach as opposed to a one-size-fits-one approach.

    而這種受託責任正受到《清晰合作》等規則的損害,這些規則迫使他們採取「一刀切」的做法,而不是「一刀切」的做法。

  • On Christie's International Real Estate, when you look at the largest luxury brokerage in the affiliate's base, they're five times our size, and we aren't giving guidance on how fast it's going to grow.

    就佳士得國際地產而言,如果你看一下附屬公司中最大的奢侈品經紀公司,他們的規模是我們的五倍,而我們並沒有給出其增長速度的指引。

  • But I can tell you that we already launched two new international markets.

    但我可以告訴你,我們已經開拓了兩個新的國際市場。

  • And we have signed up a new domestic market, which is already signed and should be announced in the next -- I think next month in March.

    我們已經簽署了一個新的國內市場協議,應該會在下個月——我想是下個月三月——宣布。

  • And we're close to signing another.

    我們即將簽署另一份協議。

  • And so, we feel that the momentum is moving in such a path that it's meeting, if not exceeding, our initial expectations.

    因此,我們感覺,這種勢頭正在朝著符合甚至超越我們最初預期的方向發展。

  • Kalani?

    卡拉尼?

  • Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

    Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Hey, Jason.

    嘿,傑森。

  • Just to make sure I answer the question, can you repeat the question?

    為了確保我回答了這個問題,你能重複這個問題嗎?

  • Jason Helfstein - Analyst

    Jason Helfstein - Analyst

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • So I think you basically helped us understand that in the guidance for the first quarter, there's nine points of acquisition impact, 900 basis points.

    所以我認為您基本上幫助我們理解,在第一季的指引中,收購影響有 9 個點,即 900 個基點。

  • Should we think about a similar impact for the rest of 2025 as far as the tailwind from acquisitions?

    就收購帶來的順風而言,我們是否應該考慮 2025 年剩餘時間的類似影響?

  • Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

    Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, yeah.

    是啊是啊。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Yeah, I think overall, when we think about acquisition volume, obviously, we're going to finish the lapping of our Parks and L&B, which is included in Q1, and then we'll have Christie's International Real Estate.

    是的,我認為總的來說,當我們考慮收​​購量時,顯然,我們將完成對公園和 L&B 的收購,這包括在第一季度,然後我們將擁有佳士得國際地產。

  • I think we had mentioned there that it's around $500 million of overall revenue.

    我想我們曾經提到過,總收入約為 5 億美元。

  • I expect the gating of that to be consistent with kind of our legacy Compass, with Q1 being the weakest quarter, Q2, Q3 being the strongest.

    我預計其門控將與我們傳統的 Compass 保持一致,其中 Q1 是最弱的季度,而 Q2、Q3 是最強的季度。

  • So that's how I would think about the modeling of M&A, Jason.

    這就是我對併購建模的看法,傑森。

  • Jason Helfstein - Analyst

    Jason Helfstein - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Kuntarich, UBS Securities.

    瑞銀證券的 Chris Kuntarich。

  • Chris Kuntarich - Analyst

    Chris Kuntarich - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thanks for taking the question.

    感謝您回答這個問題。

  • Can we just talk a bit about, really, the opportunity around Compass One and driving this three-phase marketing approach and doing it within the context of that 3% to 4% organic expense growth?

    我們能否真正談談 Compass One 的機會以及推動這種三階段行銷方法並在 3% 至 4% 的有機費用成長背景下實施它?

  • How should we be thinking about your marketing expense and driving awareness around this to potentially accelerate agent growth?

    我們應該如何考慮您的行銷費用並提高對此的認識以潛在地加速代理商的成長?

  • I have a follow-up after that.

    此後我將會跟進。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

    Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

  • So at Compass, we don't have a corporate marketing because we have 30,000-plus agents with, on average, 3,000 people in their contacts, so 100 million people.

    因此,在 Compass,我們沒有企業行銷,因為我們有 30,000 多名代理商,平均每個聯絡人有 3,000 人,所以有 1 億人。

  • Our agents are a natural way to market the message of Compass directly with their clients.

    我們的代理商是向客戶直接推銷 Compass 資訊的自然方式。

  • So again, over 100 million people or contacts that they have in their combined database.

    他們的綜合資料庫中有超過 1 億人或聯絡人。

  • And our platform allows them, with a click of the button, to send digital newsletters.

    他們只需點擊按鈕,即可在我們的平台上發送數位通訊。

  • I'm sure you've probably seen some of them, social media post organic or paid social posts, again, through the platform as well as postcards, mailers, brochures, and much more, even video.

    我相信你可能已經看到過其中一些,社交媒體發布的有機或付費社交帖子,同樣,透過平台以及明信片、郵件、小冊子等等,甚至視頻。

  • And so, we put in Compass One marketing materials through the platform, and we're in the process of up-leveling our Compass three-phase marketing material.

    因此,我們透過該平台投入了 Compass One 行銷材料,我們正在升級我們的 Compass 三階段行銷材料。

  • And the numbers that we outlined today about the 2.9% as well as the reduction in days on market as well as the reduction in price drops, we're going to -- we're adding that content in over the next week.

    我們今天概述的有關 2.9% 的數字以及上市天數的減少以及價格下降的減少,我們將在下週添加這些內容。

  • So they can then share that with their clients and their sphere of influence.

    這樣他們就可以與他們的客戶和影響範圍分享這些資訊。

  • Now, we do see value of doing something potentially at the corporate level that we're exploring.

    現在,我們確實看到了我們正在探索的公司層面上採取一些潛在行動的價值。

  • But first, we want to maximize the full value of doing it in a free way that aligns us with our agents, where they can build their client relationship.

    但首先,我們希望以免費的方式最大限度地發揮這種方式的價值,使我們與代理商保持一致,以便他們能夠建立客戶關係。

  • Chris Kuntarich - Analyst

    Chris Kuntarich - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And just on free cash flow, how should we be thinking about uses of it here?

    就自由現金流而言,我們應該如何考慮它的用途?

  • Could we potentially be thinking about share buybacks?

    我們可能會考慮股票回購嗎?

  • Any sort of framework to be thinking about SBC as well for this year?

    今年有沒有什麼關於 SBC 的框架可以考慮?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

    Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Hey, Chris.

    嘿,克里斯。

  • On overall free cash flow, we expect meaningful free cash flow creation in the year.

    就整體自由現金流而言,我們預計今年將創造有意義的自由現金流。

  • As we think about our framework, we really have three buckets.

    當我們思考我們的框架時,我們實際上有三個桶子。

  • The first is just fortifying our balance sheet, right, just making sure that we are prepared for the cyclical business that we are in.

    首先是加強我們的資產負債表,對吧,只是確保我們為所處的周期性業務做好準備。

  • Second is investment back into our business.

    第二是對我們的業務進行重新投資。

  • Our key focus from that perspective is going to be on technology and deepening our inventory in our key markets through M&A and organic growth.

    從這個角度來看,我們的重點將放在技術上,並透過併購和有機成長深化我們在主要市場的庫存。

  • And then our third bucket as we think through and see continued free cash flow will be shareholder return.

    然後,當我們思考並看到持續的自由現金流時,我們的第三個目標將是股東回報。

  • And so, as we think about free cash flow this year, it'll be focused on kind of the first two buckets and looking at opportunities long term for shareholder value.

    因此,當我們考慮今年的自由現金流時,我們將重點放在前兩個方面,並尋找長期的股東價值機會。

  • Chris Kuntarich - Analyst

    Chris Kuntarich - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And anything off that run rate for full year SBC to be thinking about?

    全年 SBC 的運作率還有什麼值得考慮的嗎?

  • Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

    Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think Q1 will look very similar to Q4, and then we'll continue to maintain around those levels.

    我認為第一季將與第四季度非常相似,然後我們將繼續保持這些水平。

  • There's some step-ups as we normally have for investments in our employees, but overall, we should be relatively the same.

    我們通常會增加對員工的投資,但整體而言,應該保持相對不變。

  • Chris Kuntarich - Analyst

    Chris Kuntarich - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Super helpful, Kalani.

    非常有幫助,卡拉尼。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bernie McTernan, Needham and Company.

    伯尼·麥克特南,尼德漢姆公司。

  • Bernie McTernan - Analyst

    Bernie McTernan - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thanks for taking the questions.

    感謝您回答這些問題。

  • Maybe just to start, is there a difference for commissions to agents based on private listings or Coming Soon, or are they more likely to represent both sides of the transaction in areas that they're able to?

    也許只是開始,基於私人房源或即將推出的房源向代理商支付的佣金是否存在差異,或者他們是否更有可能在他們能夠做到的領域代表交易的雙方?

  • And it just seems like from the anecdotes, they're more -- they're using it, they're leveraging it to win listings.

    從軼事來看,他們似乎更多地是在使用它、利用它來贏得上市。

  • Just any commentary on the economics of agents with private listings or Coming Soon.

    只是對擁有私人房源或即將推出的房產的代理商的經濟狀況的任何評論。

  • Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

    Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

  • And I think you're right on the last point that it seems like you're hearing as well.

    我認為您對最後一點的看法是正確的,您似乎也聽到了。

  • Agents are saying that the Compass three-phase marketing strategy is helping them win listings.

    代理商表示,Compass 的三階段行銷策略正在幫助他們贏得房源。

  • And yeah, there are many people that say it's one of the best listing tools that they've ever had because it meets, obviously, the seller demand.

    是的,很多人說這是他們用過的最好的清單工具之一,因為它顯然滿足了賣家的需求。

  • In terms of commissions, there's no different commission structure for a Private Exclusive versus Coming Soon versus an active listing.

    在佣金方面,私人獨家、即將推出和活躍上市的佣金結構沒有區別。

  • And so, we don't -- and I personally don't even know how much more we -- how much more listings are sold in-house or not.

    所以,我們不知道——我個人甚至不知道我們——內部銷售的房源有多少。

  • That is not the reason why we do this.

    這不是我們這樣做的原因。

  • The reason why we do things is because we want to give our agents an edge.

    我們這樣做的原因是我們想讓我們的代理商獲得優勢。

  • And so, how do you give your agents an edge?

    那麼,如何讓您的代理商更具優勢呢?

  • You give them tools that their clients want.

    您向他們提供客戶想要的工具。

  • And this is just one of the greatest tools that you can give.

    這只是您能提供的最棒的工具之一。

  • And what's great about this tool as well is it doesn't cost more money.

    此工具的另一個優點是它不需要花費太多錢。

  • You can -- an agent can go to their clients and walk through the three-phase marketing strategy.

    您可以-代理商可以向他們的客戶介紹三階段行銷策略。

  • They're going to sound more sophisticated.

    它們聽起來會更加老練。

  • They're going to sound like they have a plan.

    聽起來他們好像有個計畫。

  • They're going to sound professional, and it's not, hey, I'm going to spend more money on an ad or on marketing dollars.

    他們聽起來很專業,而且他們不會說,嘿,我要花更多的錢在廣告或行銷上。

  • And so, if their clients want someone who has a plan, this is a plan that is free.

    因此,如果他們的客戶想要一個有計劃的人,這是一個免費的計劃。

  • And it works uniquely within Compass because of our network of 33,000 top agents where you can effectively access millions of buyers without the risk of portal sites and MLS exposure.

    它在 Compass 中的獨特運作方式得益於我們由 33,000 名頂級代理商組成的網絡,您可以透過該網絡有效地接觸數百萬買家,而無需承擔門戶網站和 MLS 曝光的風險。

  • Bernie McTernan - Analyst

    Bernie McTernan - Analyst

  • Understood.

    明白了。

  • Thanks, Robert.

    謝謝,羅伯特。

  • And for Kalani, with the acquisition just closed, there's $25 million of franchise revenue, $25 million of title.

    對於 Kalani 來說,由於剛剛完成收購,他獲得了 2500 萬美元的特許經營收入和 2500 萬美元的所有權收入。

  • We're just wondering if we could get an update on what the expected total noncommissioned revenue could be, either percentage of total or just an aggregate number of what we're up to right now in terms of that non-commissioned revenue.

    我們只是想知道我們是否可以得到有關預期總非委託收入的最新信息,無論是佔總收入的百分比,還是僅僅是我們目前非委託收入的總數。

  • Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

    Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Bernie, you're -- I think the -- we won't give the pieces out, Bernie, but I do think we've given some of the information, I think, overall $500 million of revenue.

    伯尼,你 - 我想 - 我們不會透露詳細信息,伯尼,但我認為我們已經提供了一些信息,我認為,總體而言是 5 億美元的收入。

  • I think those pieces we gave out that you just mentioned are going to -- we're going to grow and have those -- have some real good opportunities.

    我認為您剛才提到的我們提供的那些產品將會——我們將會發展並擁有它們——一些真正的好機會。

  • But I think you can add just the continued growth there, but probably, the bigger piece of the $500 million will be brokerage as well.

    但我認為你可以把持續的成長也加進去,但 5 億美元中更大的一部分也可能是經紀業務。

  • Bernie McTernan - Analyst

    Bernie McTernan - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Thanks, Kalani.

    謝謝,卡拉尼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan McKeveny, Zelman & Associate.

    Ryan McKeveny,Zelman 及合夥人。

  • Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

    Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

  • Hey, thank you.

    嘿,謝謝你。

  • Congrats on the results, and thanks, as always, for the commentary.

    恭喜您所取得的成績,並一如既往地感謝您的評論。

  • I guess a two-part question around growth expectations.

    我想這個問題圍繞著成長預期分為兩個部分。

  • First, on the organic side, I guess using 4Q as an example, about 670 gross agent adds, dropping down to about 210 on a net basis.

    首先,從有機方面來看,我想以第四季為例,總代理商增加量約 670 名,淨增加量下降至約 210 名。

  • I guess I'm just curious, on an organic basis, what do you think is a reasonable run rate to think about going forward?

    我想我只是好奇,從有機基礎來看,您認為未來合理的運行率是多少?

  • Like was 4Q a decent proxy?

    例如 4Q 是不是一個不錯的代理?

  • I know you called out kind of managing out nonproducers, so presumably not the best proxy for future quarters, but any commentary around just your thoughts on agent additions on an organic basis going forward?

    我知道您提到了對非生產者的管理,所以這可能不是未來幾季的最佳代表,但您對未來在有機基礎上增加代理商的想法有何評論?

  • And then secondly, on the inorganic side, following the app properties in Christie's deal, obviously, a large and important transaction.

    其次,在無機方面,繼佳士得交易中的應用程式屬性之後,顯然這是一筆大型且重要的交易。

  • I guess I'm just curious, what about the pipeline of incremental M&A?

    我想我只是好奇,增量併購的管道怎麼樣?

  • Does the focus shift a bit to just the integration, drawing out synergies from that deal?

    重點是否會轉移到整合上,從而從交易中產生協同效應?

  • Or could we expect to see further maybe smaller opportunities down the pike?

    或者我們可以期待在未來看到更多或許是更小的機會?

  • And yeah, just generally your view on incremental M&A going forward post the deal.

    是的,您總體上對交易後增量式併購有何看法。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

    Kalani Reelitz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Hey, Ryan, it's Kalani.

    嘿,瑞安,我是卡拉尼。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • For agent adds, I think we've seen a ton of momentum.

    對於代理商的增加,我認為我們已經看到了巨大的發展勢頭。

  • I'm really excited by the work the team has done.

    我對團隊所做的工作感到非常興奮。

  • We are targeting and we should expect to add between 600 to 700 gross agents, and we should expect to maintain that industry-leading retention at 90% annualized or somewhere around 97.5% per quarter.

    我們的目標是,預計新增 600 至 700 名代理商,並且預計將保持業界領先的年保留率 90% 或每季 97.5% 左右。

  • And so, I would suspect Q4, Q3 is a good proxy for gross net -- or gross adds, I'm sorry.

    因此,我認為 Q4、Q3 是總淨利潤或總增量(抱歉)的良好代表。

  • As we mentioned, Q4 had about 150, 175 nonproducing agents that we cleaned up.

    正如我們所提到的,第四季度我們清理了大約 150 到 175 個不生產代理。

  • So that 210 is probably a little understated is my guess overall, but I think you can use the gross as a proxy.

    所以總體而言,我的猜測是 210 可能有點低估,但我認為您可以使用總數作為替代。

  • I think we're seeing a ton of momentum.

    我認為,我們正看到巨大的發展動能。

  • Agents are really coming over for technology, coming over for our depth of inventory and culture are kind of the big three reasons.

    代理商之所以選擇我們,主要是因為我們的技術、豐富的庫存和良好的文化。

  • And so, I don't see that momentum stopping.

    所以,我認為這種勢頭不會停止。

  • In fact, I see us only getting stronger with the team, and I do see our retention rate kind of holding strong there.

    事實上,我看到我們團隊變得越來越強大,而且我確實看到我們的保留率保持強勁。

  • So I think you can use Q3 for the bit of the cleanup that we did for nonproducing agents.

    因此我認為您可以使用 Q3 進行我們為非生產代理所做的清理工作。

  • And then I will -- on the M&A, I think we're -- we'll continue -- we're working well with our Christie's International Real Estate partners to integrate, driving synergies, achieving those $30 million.

    然後,關於併購,我想我們會繼續與佳士得國際地產合作夥伴進行良好的合作,以整合、推動協同效應,實現 3,000 萬美元的目標。

  • We'll continue to focus on that, but the pipeline remains strong, a lot of conversations, particularly as we think about the inventory advantage that we're building.

    我們將繼續關注這一點,但渠道仍然強勁,有很多對話,特別是當我們考慮我們正在建立的庫存優勢時。

  • And so, we'll continue to see the opportunities there within our framework economically that makes a lot of sense for us.

    因此,我們將繼續在我們的經濟框架內看到對我們來說非常有意義的機會。

  • So I anticipate you'll hear more activity from us.

    因此我期待您能聽到我們更多的動態。

  • Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

    Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Appreciate it.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Michael Ng, Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員指示)高盛的 Michael Ng。

  • Michael Ng - Analyst

    Michael Ng - Analyst

  • Hey, good afternoon.

    嘿,下午好。

  • Thank you for the question.

    感謝您的提問。

  • I just had one for Robert on the inventory strategy.

    我剛剛為羅伯特提供了有關庫存策略的資訊。

  • I was wondering if you could just speak to -- if you look out to a couple of years, what does this look like in success for Compass?

    我想知道您是否可以談談——如果展望未來幾年,Compass 會取得怎樣的成功?

  • Is this about attracting more agents and gaining market share that way given Private Exclusives and Coming Soon is a tool that Compass is obviously doing very well in?

    鑑於 Private Exclusives 和 Coming Soon 是 Compass 非常擅長的工具,這是否是為了吸引更多代理商並獲得市場份額?

  • Could you potentially get a license fee from cross-posting to real estate portals at some point down the road and perhaps charging for access while keeping the negative insights off those listings?

    你是否有可能在未來某個時候透過交叉發佈到房地產入口網站來獲得許可費,並可能收取訪問費用,同時將負面見解從這些清單中刪除?

  • Any thoughts there would be great.

    任何想法都很好。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

    Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Look, Michael, I think the question's well said coming from you, my alma mater, my alum, Goldman Sachs, which, for many years, was known as the bank that you would go to if you wanted to sell a company and get maximum dollar because you ran the best process and the best people and tools to do so.

    聽著,邁克爾,我認為你,我的母校,我的校友,高盛,提出的這個問題很好。

  • So where's this look in the long run?

    那麼從長遠來看,這種看法正確嗎?

  • In the long run, hopefully not too many years from now, every homeowner in the country knows if you want to sell your most valuable asset on the average person's life that this company called Compass can help you maximize that value.

    從長遠來看,希望用不了多少年,全國的每個房主都知道,如果你想出售普通人一生中最有價值的資產,這家名為 Compass 的公司可以幫助你最大化價值。

  • That's what this is all about.

    這就是這件事的意義。

  • And if we do that, of course, you can imagine all the wonderful, beautiful things that come with it because you can't buy what's not for sale.

    如果我們這樣做,當然,你可以想像隨之而來的所有美妙、美麗的事物,因為你買不到非賣品。

  • And that would -- of course, it would allow to more transactions, helping more -- not just sellers.

    當然,這將允許更多的交易,幫助更多的人,而不僅僅是賣家。

  • Remember, every time you help a seller, you're also helping a buyer, and you become a place -- if we are the place that's known to maximize the value of a home sale, clearly, the best real estate professionals would want to be there as well.

    請記住,每次您幫助賣家時,您也在幫助買家,並且您就成為一個地方——如果我們是已知可以最大化房屋銷售價值的地方,那麼顯然,最好的房地產專業人士也希望在那裡。

  • And you're giving them an edge, and so you're the place that agents want to come to, they want to stay at more.

    而且您給了他們優勢,因此您就是代理商想要來的地方,他們更願意在這裡停留。

  • It allows you to then take that success and reinvest it back in the platform.

    它允許您利用這一成功並將其重新投資於平台。

  • So you're investing more in the future of your business than the market.

    因此,您對企業未來的投資比對市場的投資更多。

  • And I would like to see this as a place where we have -- we've had an impact on the industry such that agents are no longer being forced by a trade group and being told by a trade group how to market their clients' properties.

    我希望看到我們對這個行業產生影響,使得代理商不再受到行業集團的強迫或由行業集團指示如何行銷其客戶的房產。

  • I just don't think that's right.

    我只是認為那是不對的。

  • I mean, we talked about on the call that the trade group's business is a volume business.

    我的意思是,我們在電話會議上談到,貿易集團的業務是批量業務。

  • It's how do I make as much money from volume per agent dues.

    這就是我如何從每個代理費中賺取盡可能多的錢。

  • My estimate is the trade groups plus the MLS associations generate over $2 billion of agent dues a year.

    我估計,產業團體加上 MLS 協會每年產生的經紀人費超過 20 億美元。

  • There's real money there, a lot of people, 600 MLSs, a lot of people that are making money off the agent.

    那裡有真金白銀,很多人,600 個 MLS,很多人都在經紀人賺錢。

  • And I'm the one who these agents come to and say, why is it that I have to pay NAR?

    這些經紀人會來找我並問我,為什麼我必須向 NAR 付費?

  • Why is it I can't watermark my own photos, but then the MLS watermarks it?

    為什麼我不能為自己的照片加浮水印,但 MLS 卻可以為我的照片加浮水印?

  • Why is it that I can't put a listing description?

    為什麼我無法添加列表描述?

  • I'm the listing agent, so if the buyer sees it on the portal, that they know they can actually reach out to me, the listing agent.

    我是掛牌代理人,所以如果買家在門戶網站上看到它,他們就知道他們實際上可以聯繫我,掛牌代理人。

  • And look, ultimately, I just -- I close your question saying I want the future of this industry not to be created by companies that are trying to devalue discount and displace and control the agent, instead to be created by the agent, the person who's at the center of the transaction, who is talking with the client every single day, the buyer and seller, and saying, what are your needs?

    最後,我只是——我結束你的問題時說,我希望這個行業的未來不是由那些試圖貶低折扣、取代和控制代理商的公司創造,而是由代理商創造,代理商是交易的中心人物,他每天都在與客戶、買家和賣家交談,並問他們,你的需求是什麼?

  • How can I meet them?

    我怎樣才能見到他們?

  • They should be the ones that are creating the future of the industry.

    他們應該是創造這個產業未來的人。

  • And Compass is the company that will listen to them better than any other company and then build their ideas into reality.

    Compass 是一家比其他任何公司都更能傾聽客戶的心聲並將他們的想法變成現實的公司。

  • Michael Ng - Analyst

    Michael Ng - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you for that color, Robert.

    謝謝你的顏色,羅伯特。

  • I really appreciate it.

    我非常感激。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Black, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的班·布萊克。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi.

    你好。

  • This is Jeff on for Ben.

    這是傑夫代替班。

  • Thanks for taking my question.

    感謝您回答我的問題。

  • I was just wondering if you could give a little bit of color on how commission rate has trended for agents.

    我只是想知道您是否可以稍微介紹一下代理商的佣金率趨勢。

  • I mean, you talked about kind of the difference between the underperforming and the high-performing agents, which seems like it might imply that you're seeing some more commission compression on the lower-end side of the agents.

    我的意思是,您談到了表現不佳的代理商和表現出色的代理商之間的差異,這似乎意味著您會看到代理商低端方面的佣金壓縮更多。

  • Is there anything you can tell us just on how that's trended and maybe different mix or different geographies or where you're seeing more or less of an impact?

    您能否告訴我們這種趨勢如何,以及不同的組合或不同的地理位置,或者您在哪裡看到或多或少的影響?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

    Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

  • We haven't looked at this in detail.

    我們還沒有詳細研究過這個問題。

  • However, what I can see anecdotally and from what I read, that the top agents are outperforming not just in gaining market share but also on commission than the inexperienced agents.

    然而,從傳聞和閱讀內容來看,頂級代理商不僅在獲得市場份額方面表現優異,而且在佣金方面也比缺乏經驗的代理商表現優異。

  • And it's similar to what I said in the call.

    這與我在電話中說的類似。

  • Why is it that, in this industry, the buyer agents, regardless of their experience, are getting paid the same from the listing agent commission paid to the buyer agent?

    為什麼在這個行業中,買方代理商無論其經驗如何,從支付給買方代理商的上市代理商佣金中獲得的報酬都是相同的?

  • Well, in no other industry would it be like that.

    嗯,其他任何行業都不會出現這種情況。

  • Lawyers one year in the business don't get paid the same as lawyers 10 years in the business.

    從業一年的律師與從業十年的律師所獲得的報酬是不一樣的。

  • So I think the structural change -- and that's why I know I spent some time on the call, but I really believe that's the biggest thing happening right now.

    所以我認為是結構性變化——這就是為什麼我知道我花了一些時間打電話,但我真的相信這是目前發生的最大的事情。

  • This industry of large brokerages and top agents has been held back by rules that would be claimed as leveling the playing field.

    這個由大型經紀公司和頂級經紀人組成的行業一直受到所謂公平競爭規則的阻礙。

  • What it really meant is, how do we get as many agents as possible?

    它的真正意義是:我們如何獲得盡可能多的代理商?

  • How does the industry of almost 1.6 million agents where 70% of them didn't do one transaction last year?

    這個擁有近 160 萬代理商的行業,其中 70% 去年沒有完成一筆交易,情況如何?

  • Because that's how all those stakeholders can make as much money, being the NAR, the associations, and the MLS.

    因為這就是所有利害關係人(NAR、協會和 MLS)能夠賺錢的方式。

  • And so, with these rules being pulled out, I just think these top agents are going to thrive.

    所以,隨著這些規則的取消,我認為這些頂級經紀人將會蓬勃發展。

  • It's going to be incredible for them as well as large brokerages, Compass as well as others.

    對於他們以及大型經紀公司、Compass 和其他公司來說,這將是一件不可思議的事情。

  • Look, Compass invested $1.7 billion in tech platforms, hundreds of millions of dollars in other stuff.

    你看,Compass 在科技平台上投資了 17 億美元,在其他方面投資了數億美元。

  • So we have -- I think we will thrive more because we invested more, but it's a great thing for top agents, large brokerages, and ultimately, the consumer because the consumer wants an industry where more people are investing on their behalf, not an industry where there's no incentive to invest on your behalf -- on their behalf.

    所以,我認為我們會更加繁榮,因為我們投入了更多,但這對頂級代理商、大型經紀公司以及最終的消費者來說都是一件好事,因為消費者想要一個有更多人為他們進行投資的行業,而不是一個沒有動力為你進行投資的行業。

  • But yeah, long story short is we're not seeing a change for the top agents.

    但是,長話短說,我們沒有看到頂級經紀人的變化。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And I'm showing no further questions at this time.

    我現在沒有其他問題了。

  • I would like to turn it back to our founder and CEO, Robert Reffkin, to close this out.

    最後,我想請我們的創辦人兼執行長 Robert Reffkin 來結束本次演講。

  • Robert?

    羅伯特?

  • Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

    Robert Reffkin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder

  • Well, thank you, everyone, for joining our call today.

    好吧,感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。

  • I just want to express my gratitude to all our agents, all of our employees, as well as to all of our shareholders.

    我只想向我們所有的代理商、所有的員工以及所有的股東表示感謝。

  • Your commitment to Compass has driven our success so far and has positioned us to outperform the market in 2025 and beyond.

    您對 Compass 的承諾推動了我們迄今為止的成功,並使我們有能力在 2025 年及以後超越市場。

  • With that, thank you, and have a great rest of your day.

    最後,謝謝您,祝您有個愉快的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Thank you all for joining.

    感謝大家的加入。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連線。