Columbia Sportswear Co (COLM) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Columbia Sportswear Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，您好，歡迎參加 Columbia Sportswear 2022 年第三季度財務業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Andrew Burns. The floor is yours.

現在，我很高興將發言權交給您的主持人 Andrew Burns。地板是你的。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us to discuss Columbia Sportswear Company's third quarter results. In addition to the earnings release, we furnished an 8-K containing a detailed CFO commentary and financial review presentation explaining our results. This document is also available on our Investor Relations website, investor.columbia.com. With me today on the call are Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Tim Boyle; Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Swanson; and Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer, Peter Bragdon.

下午好，感謝您加入我們討論哥倫比亞運動服裝公司的第三季度業績。除了收益發布之外，我們還提供了一份 8-K，其中包含詳細的首席財務官評論和財務審查演示文稿，解釋了我們的結果。該文件也可在我們的投資者關係網站investor.columbia.com 上找到。今天與我通話的還有董事長、總裁兼首席執行官蒂姆·博伊爾；執行副總裁兼首席財務官吉姆·斯旺森；執行副總裁兼首席行政官 Peter Bragdon。

This conference call will contain forward-looking statements regarding Columbia's expectations, anticipations or beliefs about the future. These statements are expressed in good faith in our beliefs to a reasonable basis. However, each forward-looking statement is subject to many risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from what is projected. Any of these risks and uncertainties are described in Columbia's SEC filings. We caution that forward-looking statements are inherently less reliable than historical information. We do not undertake any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this conference call to conform the forward-looking statements to actual results or changes in our expectations.

本次電話會議將包含有關哥倫比亞大學對未來的期望、預期或信念的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是在合理的基礎上真誠地表達我們的信念。然而，每項前瞻性陳述都存在許多風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與預測結果大相徑庭。哥倫比亞向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述了任何這些風險和不確定性。我們警告說，前瞻性陳述本質上不如歷史信息可靠。我們不承擔任何義務在本次電話會議之後更新任何前瞻性陳述，以使前瞻性陳述符合實際結果或我們預期的變化。

I'd also like to point out that during the call, we may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, including constant currency net sales. For further information about non-GAAP financial measures and results, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures and an explanation of management's rationale for referencing these non-GAAP measures, please refer to the supplemental financial information section and financial tables included in our earnings release in the appendix of our CFO commentary and financial review. Following our prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A period during which we will limit each caller to 2 questions, so we can get to everyone by the end of the hour.

我還想指出，在電話會議期間，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計原則的財務指標，包括固定貨幣淨銷售額。有關非 GAAP 財務措施和結果的更多信息，包括 GAAP 與非 GAAP 措施的對賬以及管理層引用這些非 GAAP 措施的理由的解釋，請參閱我們的補充財務信息部分和財務表格我們的首席財務官評論和財務審查附錄中的收益發布。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將舉辦一個問答環節，在此期間，我們將每個來電者限制為 2 個問題，以便我們可以在一個小時結束前聯繫到每個人。

Now I'll turn the call over to Tim.

現在我將把電話轉給蒂姆。

Thanks, Andrew, and good afternoon. I hope everyone is well. I'm pleased to report that third quarter net sales and earnings growth were very strong, considering the economic, geopolitical and supply chain headwinds that we're navigating. Net sales grew 19% and diluted earnings per share grew 18%, broadly in line with our expectations. Bright spots in the quarter included SOREL, which grew 28% year-over-year. The SOREL brand continues to outperform, fueled by function-first fashion footwear. We believe SOREL is well on its way to $1 billion in sales and becoming the next global footwear force.

謝謝，安德魯，下午好。我希望每個人都很好。我很高興地報告，考慮到我們正在應對的經濟、地緣政治和供應鏈逆風，第三季度的淨銷售額和盈利增長非常強勁。淨銷售額增長 19%，攤薄後每股收益增長 18%，基本符合我們的預期。本季度的亮點包括 SOREL，同比增長 28%。在功能至上的時尚鞋履的推動下，SOREL 品牌繼續表現出色。我們相信 SOREL 正朝著 10 億美元的銷售額邁進，並成為下一個全球鞋類力量。

Columbia also had a fantastic quarter growing 19%. The brand's iconic innovation, value proposition and democratic distribution, uniquely position the brand to capitalize on the popularity of outdoor activities. Innovations like Omni-Heat Infinity and the newly introduced Omni-Heat Helix are solving problems for consumers and our key differentiators for the brand. So looking at the current environment, it's increasingly evident that the threat of recession is weighing on the market. Despite this challenging background, our DTC business was up 8% year-over-year in the quarter with balanced growth across brick-and-mortar and e-commerce.

哥倫比亞也有一個驚人的季度增長 19%。該品牌標誌性的創新、價值主張和民主分配，使該品牌在利用戶外活動的普及方面具有獨特的定位。 Omni-Heat Infinity 和新推出的 Omni-Heat Helix 等創新正在為消費者和我們品牌的關鍵差異化因素解決問題。因此，從目前的環境來看，經濟衰退的威脅正在給市場帶來壓力，這一點越來越明顯。儘管背景充滿挑戰，但我們的 DTC 業務在本季度同比增長 8%，實體店和電子商務實現了平衡增長。

On our last call, we updated our outlook to contemplate higher order cancellation risk and a more promotional environment compared to the exceptionally favorable environment in the prior year. We experienced both these trends in the third quarter and anticipate similar headwinds in the fourth quarter as the marketplace seeks to rationalize inventory levels. Exiting the third quarter, our inventories were up 47%. As we look to align our inventory position with anticipated demand, it's important to remember that our business model and strategies are well suited to manage this process effectively and profitably.

在上次電話會議上，我們更新了我們的展望，以考慮與去年異常有利的環境相比更高的訂單取消風險和更具促銷性的環境。我們在第三季度經歷了這兩種趨勢，並預計第四季度會出現類似的逆風，因為市場尋求合理化庫存水平。退出第三季度，我們的庫存增加了 47%。當我們希望使我們的庫存狀況與預期需求保持一致時，重要的是要記住，我們的業務模式和戰略非常適合有效地管理這一過程並實現盈利。

Our inventory includes a high percentage of evergreen styles that do not change season to season. This reduces our exposure to promotional pricing. Given our strong balance sheet, we can be patient as to when and where we sell our product. If we decide not to carry over product, we will utilize our fleet of outlet stores, which enables us to profitably sell remaining high-quality inventory.

我們的庫存包括高比例的不隨季節變化的常綠款式。這減少了我們接觸促銷價格的機會。鑑於我們強大的資產負債表，我們可以耐心等待我們何時何地銷售我們的產品。如果我們決定不結轉產品，我們將利用我們的直銷店車隊，這使我們能夠以有利可圖的方式出售剩餘的優質庫存。

Overall, I'm confident our strategies are working, and that our brand portfolio has tremendous long-term growth potential. With 2 very important sales months left in the year, we are reiterating our full year net sales and diluted earnings per share outlook. I will provide more data later in the call. From our review of third quarter 2022 financial performance, I'll reference year-over-year comparisons versus the third quarter of 2021, unless otherwise noted.

總體而言，我相信我們的戰略正在奏效，並且我們的品牌組合具有巨大的長期增長潛力。今年還剩下兩個非常重要的銷售月份，我們重申我們的全年淨銷售額和稀釋後的每股收益前景。我將在稍後的電話會議中提供更多數據。從我們對 2022 年第三季度財務業績的回顧來看，除非另有說明，否則我將參考與 2021 年第三季度的同比比較。

Third quarter net sales grew 19% on a reported basis and 22% on a constant currency basis. By channel, wholesale net sales increased 24%, reflecting earlier shipments of our robust Fall '22 order book. DTC net sales grew 8% and driven by 9% e-commerce growth and 8% brick-and-mortar growth. Gross margin contracted 270 basis points with the largest driver of contraction being higher inbound freight expenses. Gross margin performance was roughly in line with our outlook.

第三季度淨銷售額在報告的基礎上增長了 19%，在固定貨幣基礎上增長了 22%。按渠道劃分，批發淨銷售額增長了 24%，這反映了我們強勁的 22 年秋季訂單的早期出貨量。 DTC 淨銷售額增長 8%，受電子商務增長 9% 和實體店增長 8% 的推動。毛利率收縮 270 個基點，收縮的最大驅動因素是更高的入境運費。毛利率表現大致符合我們的預期。

SG&A leverage partially offset gross margin pressure, but operating margins still contracted 140 basis points. Diluted earnings per share increased 18% to $1.80. I will now review net sales performance by region. U.S. net sales increased 19%. We generated mid-20% wholesale growth. While timing of Fall '22 shipments improved compared to Fall '21, they were still later than historical shipping patterns. This resulted in increased order cancelations.

SG&A 槓桿部分抵消了毛利率壓力，但營業利潤率仍收縮 140 個基點。每股攤薄收益增長 18% 至 1.80 美元。我現在將按地區審查淨銷售業績。美國的淨銷售額增長了 19%。我們實現了 20% 的批發增長。雖然與 21 年秋季相比，22 年秋季的發貨時間有所改善，但仍晚於歷史發貨模式。這導致訂單取消增加。

Most of our retail partners have now set their fall floor plan. Early season sell-through trends reflect healthy demand and are tracking slightly below Fall '21, which you will remember was exceptionally strong. Sell-through is well above pre-pandemic levels, reflecting growing consumer interest in our product. Our U.S. DTC business was resilient in the third quarter despite broader economic headwinds. We generated high single-digit DTC growth with balanced performance across e-commerce and brick-and-mortar. Turning to our international business. All regions outside the U.S. were unfavorably impacted by foreign exchange rates. For international regions, I will reference constant currency growth to illustrate underlying growth in each market.

我們的大多數零售合作夥伴現在已經制定了他們的秋季平面圖。季初的銷售趨勢反映了健康的需求，並且略低於 21 年秋季，您會記得它異常強勁。銷售額遠高於大流行前的水平，反映出消費者對我們產品的興趣日益濃厚。儘管面臨更廣泛的經濟逆風，我們的美國 DTC 業務在第三季度表現強勁。我們實現了高個位數的 DTC 增長，並在電子商務和實體店實現了平衡的表現。轉向我們的國際業務。美國以外的所有地區都受到外匯匯率的不利影響。對於國際地區，我將參考恆定的貨幣增長來說明每個市場的潛在增長。

Latin America, Asia Pacific region or LAAP, net sales increased 24%. Despite the ongoing impacts of China's COVID policy, China was up mid-single-digit percent in the quarter, driven by strong DTC.com performance. Continuing waves of COVID outbreaks caused sporadic store closures and traffic decreases in various regions throughout the quarter.

拉丁美洲、亞太地區或LAAP，淨銷售額增長24%。儘管中國的 COVID 政策持續產生影響，但在 DTC.com 強勁表現的推動下，中國在本季度仍實現了中個位數百分比的增長。連續一波的 COVID 爆發導致整個季度各個地區的商店零星關閉，客流量減少。

With that being said, our e-commerce business in China was quite strong, led by the successful launch of our TikTok store. Japan increased high teens percent, driven by strong consumer demand as we anniversary the state of emergency declarations, which hindered sales in the prior year. Korea grew low single-digit percent, led by strong DTC performance. Interest in outdoor activities continues to fuel strong demand in this market.

話雖如此，我們在中國的電子商務業務相當強勁，這得益於我們成功推出的 TikTok 商店。受緊急狀態聲明周年紀念日的強勁消費者需求推動，日本增長了 10%，這阻礙了上一年的銷售。在強勁的 DTC 表現的帶動下，韓國增長了個位數百分比。對戶外活動的興趣繼續推動該市場的強勁需求。

LAAP distributor markets were up almost 150% due to higher fall '22 shipments following depressed pandemic impacted shipments in the prior year. Europe, Middle East, Africa region, or EMEA, net sales increased 54%. Europe Direct grew 20% despite mounting economic pressures in the region. We experienced strong performance in our DTC e-commerce and wholesale business.

LAAP 分銷商市場增長了近 150%，原因是 22 年秋季出貨量增加，原因是去年受大流行影響的出貨量下降。歐洲、中東、非洲地區或 EMEA，淨銷售額增長 54%。儘管該地區的經濟壓力越來越大，Europe Direct 仍增長了 20%。我們的 DTC 電子商務和批發業務表現強勁。

Our EMEA distributor business was up almost 150% due to the later shipments of fall '22 orders to our Russia-based distributor. Shipment to Russia in the third quarter consisted of pre-existing contractual obligations for orders taken prior to the invasion. As we have previously noted, we have paused taking any new orders for the Russian market. Canada net sales were flat with strong DTC performance offset by lower wholesale shipments, which were unfavorably impacted by timing shifts.

我們的 EMEA 分銷商業務增長了近 150%，原因是 22 年秋季訂單後來發給了我們位於俄羅斯的分銷商。第三季度發往俄羅斯的貨物包括入侵前訂單的預先存在的合同義務。正如我們之前提到的，我們已暫停接受俄羅斯市場的任何新訂單。加拿大淨銷售額持平，強勁的 DTC 業績被較低的批發出貨量所抵消，而批發出貨量受到時間變化的不利影響。

Looking at performance by brand. Columbia brand net sales were up 19% in the third quarter. Growth was relatively balanced across apparel and footwear. Following the highly successful launch of Omni-Heat Infinity last year, we're building on this momentum with an expanded collection for Fall '22. This differentiated visible technology remains a top priority from a product and marketing standpoint.

按品牌看業績。哥倫比亞品牌第三季度的淨銷售額增長了 19%。服裝和鞋類的增長相對平衡。繼去年非常成功地推出 Omni-Heat Infinity 之後，我們將在這一勢頭的基礎上為 22 年秋季推出更多系列。從產品和營銷的角度來看，這種差異化的可見技術仍然是重中之重。

We are running a worldwide marketing campaign focused on how the Omni-Heat Infinity technology works and why it matters for consumers. Columbia's Omni-Heat Infinity technology received numerous accolades in several top publications this fall. The men's and women's Pinnacle Peak Jacket have been named 1 of the best puffy jackets in Outside Magazine's coveted winter gear guide. For the slopes, the Platinum Peak 3-layer show was selected as 1 of the best ski jackets of this season by the editors at SKI Magazine.

我們正在開展一項全球營銷活動，重點關注 Omni-Heat Infinity 技術的工作原理以及它對消費者的重要性。 Columbia 的 Omni-Heat Infinity 技術在今年秋天的幾份頂級出版物中獲得了無數讚譽。男士和女士 Pinnacle Peak 夾克在 Outdoor Magazine 令人垂涎的冬季裝備指南中被評為最佳蓬鬆夾克之一。雪道方面，Platinum Peak 3-layer秀被SKI Magazine的編輯評選為本季最佳滑雪夾克之一。

This fall, we also introduced Omni-Heat Helix, our new disruptive polyfleece technology. Historically, the polyfleece category, which is one of the outdoor industry's mainstays has had little innovation. Columbia's Omni-Heat Helix is a patent-pending visible technology that utilizes highly efficient insulation cells to maximize warm and ensure breathability. We're excited to build on this differentiated new innovation in the seasons ahead.

今年秋天，我們還推出了全新的顛覆性聚絨技術 Omni-Heat Helix。從歷史上看，作為戶外行業支柱之一的聚絨類產品幾乎沒有什麼創新。 Columbia 的 Omni-Heat Helix 是一項正在申請專利的可見技術，它利用高效的絕緣細胞來最大限度地保暖並確保透氣性。我們很高興在接下來的幾個賽季中能夠在這種差異化的新創新基礎上再接再厲。

Omni-Heat Helix was featured on a recent Forbes Magazine article about a gear test conducted an Alaska's Spencer Glacier. The journey, which included hiking, kayaking and camping served as a proven ground for a collection of key Fall '22 styles. As we emphasize at our recent Investor Day, footwear is a growth accelerator for the Columbia brand, and we will continue to prioritize investment in this category. For Fall '22, we launched the peak-free 2 collection of lightweight technical hiking footwear. The launch is being supported by an integrated marketing campaign showcasing the shoe's freaky good grip.

Omni-Heat Helix 出現在最近的福布斯雜誌文章中，文章介紹了在阿拉斯加斯賓塞冰川進行的齒輪測試。這段旅程，包括遠足、皮划艇和露營，為 22 年秋季的一系列主要款式提供了可靠的場地。正如我們在最近的投資者日上強調的那樣，鞋類是哥倫比亞品牌的增長加速器，我們將繼續優先考慮對該類別的投資。對於 22 年秋季，我們推出了輕量技術登山鞋的無峰 2 系列。此次發布得到了展示該鞋異常良好抓地力的綜合營銷活動的支持。

Our Columbia Montreal performance running line received several callouts during the quarter. The Montreal Trinity AG was featured in the Runner's World spring footwear review issue. It was one of the 23 styles selected out of over 200 models tested. Footwear News also recently featured the Montreal Trinity MX as a shoe to know for 2023. The Trinity Collection is equipped with our branded technologies, Techlite Plush and Adapt Trax to provide added cushioning and traction in all conditions.

我們的哥倫比亞蒙特利爾性能跑線在本季度收到了多次標註。 Montreal Trinity AG 出現在 Runner's World 春季鞋履評論問題上。它是從 200 多種經過測試的模型中選出的 23 種樣式之一。鞋類新聞最近還將蒙特利爾 Trinity MX 列為 2023 年的鞋款。Trinity 系列配備了我們的品牌技術 Techlite Plush 和 Adapt Trax，可在所有條件下提供額外的緩沖和牽引力。

On the marketing front, we recently announced a multi-season partnership with leading sports and entertainment group Dude Perfect. Colombia and the Dude's will collaborate on several stunts and stories this fall and spring, focusing on making the most of the outdoors and inspiring others to do the same. We kicked off the partnership with a segment on ABC's Jimmy Kimmel Live! which first aired on September 28.

在營銷方面，我們最近宣布與領先的體育和娛樂集團 Dude Perfect 建立多季合作夥伴關係。哥倫比亞和 Dude's 將在今年秋季和春季合作製作幾個特技和故事，重點是充分利用戶外活動並激勵其他人也這樣做。我們與 ABC 的 Jimmy Kimmel Live 的一個片段開始了合作！於9月28日首播。

NFL quarterback, Jalen Hurts was recently featured on the, no days off docu series which highlights young athletes on their journey to achieve their goals. The episode focused on Jalens's transition from growing up in the Texas heat to getting ready for cold playoff weather in Philadelphia. Jalen also spoke about why he likes to enjoy the outdoors. Several Columbia products were featured prominently in the episode, including his Omni-Heat Infinity jacket.

NFL 四分衛 Jalen Hurts 最近出現在無休紀錄片系列中，該系列突出了年輕運動員實現目標的旅程。這一集的重點是賈倫斯從在德克薩斯州的高溫中長大到為費城寒冷的季后賽天氣做準備的轉變。 Jalen 還談到了他為什麼喜歡戶外活動。哥倫比亞的幾款產品在這一集中突出顯示，包括他的 Omni-Heat Infinity 夾克。

Shifting to our emerging brands. SOREL was our fastest-growing brand in the quarter. Net sales increased 28%, driven by strong wholesale and DTC e-commerce performance. SOREL's growth rate in the quarter was aided by favorable timing of fall shipments compared to the prior year. The SOREL brand remains laser-focused on bringing our relentless flow of compelling products to its unstoppable consumer.

轉向我們的新興品牌。 SOREL 是我們本季度增長最快的品牌。在強勁的批發和 DTC 電子商務表現的推動下，淨銷售額增長了 28%。 SOREL 在本季度的增長率得益於與去年相比秋季發貨的有利時機。 SOREL 品牌始終專注於將我們源源不斷的引人注目的產品帶給不可阻擋的消費者。

During the quarter, growth was led by winter style categories as well as strong performance in year round sneaker and wedge styles. In September, SOREL launched its first partnership with hypebae, which showcases today's female leaders within fashion and culture. SOREL, and illustrator Langley Fox took over the hypebae.com homepage to highlight an unstoppable women and the brand's Brex collection. SOREL also launched its social campaign powered by SOREL. This campaign features behind the same content by celebrity stylists as they get their clients ready for New York's Fashion Week and the Emmys. This has been one of SOREL's most successful organic video campaigns to date.

在本季度，冬季款式類別以及全年運動鞋和坡跟款式的強勁表現引領了增長。 9 月，SOREL 與 hypebae 建立了首次合作夥伴關係，展示了當今時尚和文化領域的女性領導者。 SOREL 和插畫家 Langley Fox 接管了 hypebae.com 主頁，以突出不可阻擋的女性和該品牌的 Brex 系列。 SOREL 還發起了由 SOREL 提供支持的社交活動。該活動以名人造型師的相同內容為特色，因為他們讓客戶為紐約時裝周和艾美獎做好準備。這是 SOREL 迄今為止最成功的有機視頻廣告系列之一。

Last week, SOREL announced that it will be relocating its headquarters to its own building on the Columbia Sportswear campus. The new location provides additional space with the brand's growing team and enables SOREL to continue attracting industry best talent. prAna net sales increased 3%. The prAna team is focused on repositioning the brand in the marketplace to energize growth in the coming seasons. Early next year, prAna will sponsor the HBO Max reality series, The Climb which will be hosted by after Jason Momoa, along with prAna ambassadors, Chris Sharma and Meagan Martin. This show will focus on a group of amateur climbers outfitted in prAna, as they ascend some of the most intimidating rock faces in the world. We believe this is a unique opportunity to meaningfully raise awareness around the prAna as we reestablish the brand's roots in key activities like climbing.

上週，SOREL 宣布將把總部遷至哥倫比亞運動服園區的自己的大樓。新地點為品牌不斷壯大的團隊提供了額外的空間，並使 SOREL 能夠繼續吸引業內最優秀的人才。 prAna 淨銷售額增長 3%。 prAna 團隊專注於在市場上重新定位品牌，以促進未來幾個季度的增長。明年年初，prAna 將贊助 HBO Max 真人秀節目 The Climb，該節目將由 Jason Momoa 以及 prAna 大使 Chris Sharma 和 Meagan Martin 主持。該節目將重點介紹一群穿著 prAna 的業餘登山者，他們攀登世界上一些最令人生畏的岩壁。我們相信這是一個獨特的機會，可以有意義地提高人們對 prAna 的認識，因為我們重新建立了品牌在攀岩等關鍵活動中的根基。

Mountain Hardware net sales increased 11%. Strong sportswear category sell-through was a highlight in the quarter as well as the introduction of the Summit grid collection, a super packable fleece for lightweight performance on the trail. The amplify Mountain Hardware's product-driven resurgence, the team is keenly focused on solidifying the brand's identity and growing brand awareness.

Mountain Hardware 的淨銷售額增長了 11%。強勁的運動裝品類銷售是本季度的一大亮點，此外還推出了 Summit grid 系列，這是一種超級可打包的抓絨面料，可在賽道上實現輕質性能。放大山五金的產品驅動復興，團隊敏銳地專注於鞏固品牌的身份和提高品牌知名度。

I'll now discuss our updated Fall '22 financial outlook. This outlook and commentary include forward-looking statements. Please see our CFO commentary and financial review presentation for additional details and disclosures related to these statements. We are reiterating our full year net sales and diluted EPS outlook calling for 10% to 12% net sales growth and between $5 to $5.40 in diluted earnings per share.

我現在將討論我們更新的 22 年秋季財務展望。本展望和評論包括前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們的首席財務官評論和財務審查演示文稿，了解與這些報表相關的更多詳細信息和披露。我們重申我們的全年淨銷售額和攤薄後每股收益展望，要求淨銷售額增長 10% 至 12%，攤薄後每股收益在 5 美元至 5.40 美元之間。

Gross margin is now expected to be down 220 to 250 basis points and SG&A expenses are forecast to grow roughly in line with sales growth. The result in an operating margin range of 11.9% to 12.7%. Foreign currency exchange headwinds are now expected to unfavorably impact full year net sales growth by 350 basis points and diluted earnings per share by approximately $0.25.

現在預計毛利率將下降 220 至 250 個基點，預計 SG&A 費用將與銷售增長大致同步。結果導致營業利潤率範圍為 11.9% 至 12.7%。現在預計外匯逆風將對全年淨銷售額增長350個基點產生不利影響，每股攤薄收益約0.25美元。

Looking into next year, we plan on providing our 2023 financial outlook when we report fourth quarter results in February. At that time, we will have visibility to fall '23 orders and our planned expenditures. As we indicated at our Investor Day, our Spring '23 order book supports modest wholesale net sales growth in the first half of 2023. We anticipate our on-time delivery performance will greatly improve and be more in line with pre-pandemic service levels.

展望明年，我們計劃在 2 月份報告第四季度業績時提供 2023 年的財務展望。屆時，我們將了解 23 年秋季的訂單和我們的計劃支出。正如我們在投資者日所指出的那樣，我們的 23 年春季訂單支持 2023 年上半年適度的批發淨銷售額增長。我們預計我們的準時交貨性能將大大提高，並更符合大流行前的服務水平。

In summary, I'm confident we have the right strategies in place to navigate this dynamic environment and unlock the significant growth opportunities we see across the business. We are investing in our strategic priorities to accelerate profitable growth create iconic products, drive brand engagement, enhanced consumer experiences, amplify marketplace excellence and empower talent that is driven by our core values.

總而言之，我相信我們制定了正確的戰略來駕馭這種動態環境並釋放我們在整個業務中看到的重大增長機會。我們正在投資於我們的戰略重點，以加速盈利增長，創造標誌性產品、推動品牌參與、增強消費者體驗、擴大市場卓越性並賦予由我們的核心價值觀驅動的人才。

That concludes my prepared remarks. We welcome your questions for the remainder of the hour. Operator, could you help us with that?

我準備好的發言到此結束。在剩下的時間裡，我們歡迎您提出問題。接線員，你能幫幫我們嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And the first question is coming from Bob Drbul with Guggenheim.

第一個問題來自古根海姆的 Bob Drbul。

A couple of questions for you. The first one is on the cancellations, and I guess, leading into the inventories, can you just elaborate more around the cancellations either by channel, by mix, Fall '22, Spring '23? And just sort of how that's played through. And then I think you talked about the inventories, you've adjusted your purchases going forward to get the inventories in line and it will still take a few quarters. I guess can you just talk through what you see at retail with your wholesale partners and sort of where you think -- when you get yours aligned versus supply/demand versus the retailers, where you think the retailers are with the trends that you're seeing out there?

幾個問題問你。第一個是關於取消的，我想，進入庫存，你能詳細說明一下取消，要么按渠道，按組合，22 年秋季，23 年春季嗎？以及它是如何發揮作用的。然後我認為您談到了庫存，您已經調整了您的採購以使庫存保持一致，但仍需要幾個季度。我想你能不能和你的批發合作夥伴談談你在零售店看到的東西，以及你的想法——當你讓你的供應/需求與零售商保持一致時，你認為零售商與你的趨勢一致在那裡看？

Sure. Thanks. Well, as it relates to the cancellation, they were virtually 100% or very close to that, a function of our inability to deliver on time. So the demand is still there for the product. It's just that we missed the windows and therefore, canceled the product. Virtually, all the cancellations have been Fall '22. We really don't have any Spring '23 delivery scheduled prior to December. So none of those have had any cancellations. We expect to be much more timely in our deliveries for Spring '23, and frankly, for the balance of Fall '22.

當然。謝謝。好吧，因為它與取消有關，它們幾乎 100% 或非常接近，這是我們無法按時交付的函數。所以對產品的需求仍然存在。只是我們錯過了窗戶，因此取消了產品。實際上，所有的取消都是 22 年秋季。我們真的沒有在 12 月之前安排任何 23 年春季交付。所以這些都沒有取消。我們希望在 23 年春季的交付中更加及時，坦率地說，對於 22 年秋季的餘額。

So this resulted in inventory, which is current inventory being in excess. So as we said in our remarks, our plan is to liquidate that over time in a nonpanic way through sales to regular retailers as a result of demand in the fall as well as our own outlet stores in the future. So we're very comfortable with our position there.

因此，這導致了庫存，即當前庫存過剩。因此，正如我們在評論中所說，我們的計劃是隨著秋季的需求以及未來我們自己的直銷店的需求，通過向常規零售商銷售，以不慌不忙的方式隨著時間的推移清算這一點。所以我們對我們在那裡的位置感到非常滿意。

As it relates to retailers, I think retailers remember ended up really with very low inventories in -- at the end of fall season '21. So our expectations are that this will be a good season. We have too much -- we have more inventory than we want right now. But I think the market is actually quite good, at least this is how we're seeing it today.

因為它與零售商有關，我認為零售商記得在 21 年秋季結束時庫存確實非常低。所以我們的期望是，這將是一個好賽季。我們有太多了——我們現在的庫存比我們想要的要多。但我認為市場實際上相當不錯，至少我們今天是這樣看的。

And Bob, with regard to your question on where we've seen cancellations by channel, it's fairly broad-based. As Tim touched on, the cancellations are by and large a factor of being late from a supply standpoint. So that's impacted all retailers relatively equally. So pretty broad-based and balanced in what we've seen from a cancellation perspective.

Bob，關於您關於我們在哪些渠道看到取消的問題，它的基礎相當廣泛。正如蒂姆所說，從供應的角度來看，取消訂單基本上是遲到的一個因素。因此，這對所有零售商的影響相對均等。從取消的角度來看，我們所看到的基礎非常廣泛和平衡。

Okay. Great. And then on SOREL, can you talk a little bit about the strength women's versus men's? And sort of where you see the opportunities in Q4 versus a little bit more on '23, early '23?

好的。偉大的。然後在 SOREL 上，你能談談女性與男性的力量嗎？你在哪裡看到了第四季度的機會，而不是 23 年和 23 年初的更多機會？

Yes, certainly. Well, the SOREL business has really grown tremendously, and it really is a function of the concentration on women's. I think we looked this morning prior to the call, and we talked about something like 80% of the SOREL sales being non-winter and something like 85% being women's. So it's really a function of the efforts that the SOREL team has put into the sneaker business, the wedge business and really getting that unstoppable women product that she needs to be going forward with. And the opportunities are enormous in my opinion.

是的，當然了。好吧，SOREL 的業務確實發展得非常快，而且它確實是專注於女性產品的一個功能。我想我們今天早上在電話會議之前看過，我們談到了 80% 的 SOREL 銷售額是非冬季的，85% 是女性的。因此，這確實是 SOREL 團隊在運動鞋業務、坡跟鞋業務以及真正獲得她需要繼續推進的勢不可擋的女性產品的努力的結果。在我看來，機會是巨大的。

The next question is coming from Laurent Vasilescu with BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Laurent Vasilescu。

I wanted to ask about the CFO commentary. My understanding, if I look -- if I compare the slides from 90 days ago, Jim, you were guiding for footwear to grow high teens, it's now low teens. Just curious what's driving that between Colombia and SOREL? And then I saw the same thing with regards to the wholesale high teens to low teens, if I'm not wrong. Was that just purely due to cancellations? Or is there some shift that we should think about from 4Q into 1Q?

我想問一下 CFO 的評論。我的理解，如果我看 - 如果我比較 90 天前的幻燈片，吉姆，你正在指導鞋類成長為高青少年，現在是低青少年。只是好奇是什麼推動了哥倫比亞和 SOREL 之間的關係？如果我沒記錯的話，我在批發高青少年到低青少年方面也看到了同樣的情況。這僅僅是因為取消嗎？還是我們應該考慮從 4Q 到 1Q 的一些轉變？

Yes. There's some slight shifts in revenue from Q3 to Q4. We had a slight miss relative to the 20% sales outlook that we provided for the third quarter. And that's effectively just a shift in timing of wholesale shipments that we now anticipate and have shipped in the early part of fourth quarter as it relates to any changes in relative growth rates between brands and product categories, they would be slight, Laurent. I'm not aware of any meaningful shifts from a product category perspective or from a brand level standpoint. And any change would be more related to wholesale cancellations as opposed to D2C performance. D2C performance was fairly consistent throughout the quarter.

是的。從第三季度到第四季度，收入略有變化。相對於我們為第三季度提供的 20% 的銷售前景，我們略有失誤。這實際上只是我們現在預計並在第四季度初發貨的批發發貨時間的轉變，因為它與品牌和產品類別之間的相對增長率的任何變化有關，它們將是輕微的，勞倫特。從產品類別的角度或品牌層面的角度來看，我不知道有任何有意義的轉變。與 D2C 性能相比，任何變化都與批發取消有關。整個季度的 D2C 性能相當穩定。

Okay. Very helpful. And then maybe just some commentary about what you're seeing in Europe. I don't know if you're seeing real time in your direct business, any slowdown. I think winter has -- the fall at least has been somewhat warm in Europe versus in the U.S. It looks like we've had a good start to October. And then China seem to be pretty resilient considering the rolling lockdowns. Anything you want to call out on China that we should consider?

好的。非常有幫助。然後也許只是對您在歐洲看到的情況的一些評論。我不知道您是否在直接業務中看到實時，任何放緩。我認為冬天已經 - 與美國相比，歐洲的秋天至少有些溫暖。看起來我們在 10 月份有了一個良好的開端。考慮到滾動封鎖，中國似乎很有彈性。你想對中國提出什麼我們應該考慮的問題？

Yes, certainly. Well, I want to point out, we've talked at length about both Europe, the European market and the China market, but let me talk about Europe first. That grew well this year in the quarter. And I think our business there is quite strong. Remember that we've underperformed in that market historically. And so now that we've got an excellent team there that's very concentrated on the right products and strategies that business is coming along well, and I think that's why you're seeing a growth in that market.

是的，當然了。好吧，我想指出，我們已經詳細討論了歐洲，歐洲市場和中國市場，但讓我先談談歐洲。今年該季度增長良好。我認為我們在那裡的業務相當強勁。請記住，從歷史上看，我們在該市場中的表現不佳。因此，現在我們在那裡擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們非常專注於業務進展順利的正確產品和戰略，我認為這就是你看到該市場增長的原因。

Obviously, the headwinds are highly publicized, but we seem to be doing well in that market and no expectations that would change our mind. As it relates to China, again, an area where we've underperformed from recent times. And the expectation is that the team is well underway and the advantage (inaudible). The advancement of the business, we have a much more robust digital team there. And as you saw in the quarter, we talked about the TikTok store, which performed so well. So those 2 markets have been under pressure from us have been reconstructed. And I think what you're seeing is the results of those reconstruction.

顯然，不利因素已廣為人知，但我們似乎在該市場上表現良好，沒有任何期望會改變我們的想法。再說一次，這與中國有關，這是我們最近表現不佳的一個領域。並且期望團隊進展順利並且具有優勢（聽不清）。隨著業務的發展，我們在那裡擁有一支更加強大的數字團隊。正如你在本季度看到的那樣，我們談到了表現如此出色的 TikTok 商店。所以這兩個市場一直受到我們的壓力已經重建。我認為你所看到的是這些重建的結果。

Up next, we have Paul Loes with Citigroup.

接下來，我們有花旗集團的 Paul Loes。

It's Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I was wondering, first, if you can tell us on your gross margin change for the year in your guidance, have you actually seen an uptick in promotional levels already quarter-to-date? Or is it something that you expect based on the inventory levels you see across the industry? And then I have another follow-up question.

是特蕾西·科根（Tracy Kogan）代替保羅。我想知道，首先，如果您可以在指導中告訴我們您當年的毛利率變化，您是否真的看到促銷水平已經從季度到現在有所上升？還是您根據您在整個行業中看到的庫存水平所期望的？然後我有另一個後續問題。

Yes. Tracy, it's going to be more of the latter in terms of the economic climate, the level of inventories in the operating environment that we're currently operating in. As we look at the third quarter, as an example, our DTC gross margins were down slightly. We cited that, that related to promotional activity. But even with that increased promotional activity. Our overall D2C margins were quite healthy. And so as we look out into the fourth quarter, the biggest change that we've made in our gross margin outlook is related to the expectation that given inventory levels more broadly in the market that there's likely to be more promotional activity. Certainly, we're not leading with that, but we'll be ready to react as appropriate.

是的。特雷西，就經濟環境、我們目前經營的經營環境中的庫存水平而言，更多的是後者。以第三季度為例，我們的 DTC 毛利率為略微下降。我們引用了與促銷活動有關的內容。但即使促銷活動增加。我們的整體 D2C 利潤率相當健康。因此，當我們展望第四季度時，我們對毛利率前景所做的最大變化與預期市場上更廣泛的庫存水平可能會有更多促銷活動有關。當然，我們不會在這方面處於領先地位，但我們會準備好做出適當的反應。

Got it. And then I guess just a follow-up. I think this quarter, as you just mentioned, your wholesale margin or your DTC channel was more promotional, but your wholesale margins were better. I think last quarter, it was the opposite. So I was wondering what the dynamics were there and what you're expecting for 4Q and as we enter next year for margins by channel?

知道了。然後我想只是一個後續行動。正如您剛才提到的，我認為本季度您的批發利潤率或您的 DTC 渠道更具促銷性，但您的批發利潤率更好。我認為上個季度情況正好相反。所以我想知道那裡的動態是什麼，你對第四季度的期望是什麼？當我們進入明年的渠道利潤率時？

Well, as it relates to both the D2C and wholesale margins. Keep in mind that does not factor in the inbound freight, which we've separately indicated is a significant headwind. So if you look at both channels with inbound freight, the gross margins are going to be down. Now when you look at wholesale being up in the fourth quarter, keep in mind the price increases that we began to implement with our fall season, which were in the high single to low double-digit basis, and we did that in order to mitigate the effects of the inflationary pressures that encompass both product input costs, coupled with inbound freight. So essentially, you're seeing the effects of that here in the third quarter as we ship into fall merchandise. And from a D2C perspective, the third quarter, typically, there's end of season summer sales and the relative mix of that and can distort some of the margin.

好吧，因為它與 D2C 和批發利潤有關。請記住，這不包括入境貨運，我們已經單獨指出這是一個重大逆風。因此，如果您查看兩個具有入境貨運的渠道，毛利率將會下降。現在，當您看到第四季度的批發價格上漲時，請記住我們在秋季開始實施的價格上漲，這是在高個位數到低兩位數的基礎上，我們這樣做是為了減輕包括產品投入成本和入境運費在內的通貨膨脹壓力的影響。所以從本質上講，你會在第三季度看到我們在秋季商品發貨時的影響。從 D2C 的角度來看，第三季度通常會出現夏季銷售季末以及與之相關的相對組合，並且可能會扭曲部分利潤。

Up next, we have John Kernan with Cowen.

接下來，我們有 John Kernan 和 Cowen。

This is Krista Zuber on for John. Just first up on the earlier shipments. Is there any way you can quantify what that is in dollar terms? And do you also envision earlier shipments of spring goods into Q4 or even Q1 '23? And I have one follow-up.

這是約翰的克里斯塔祖伯。只是先處理較早的貨物。有什麼方法可以量化以美元計算的內容嗎？您是否也設想過早在 23 年第 4 季度甚至第 1 季度發貨的春季商品？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. As it relates to the third quarter, you'll note the rate of growth that we achieved in our wholesale business. Certainly, some of that is related to timing shifts. And as Tim pointed out, there were timing shifts in which typically, we would have seen certain of our EMEA distributor Fall '22 shipments haven't been shipped in the second quarter and those shipped in the third quarter.

是的。由於它與第三季度有關，您會注意到我們在批發業務中實現的增長率。當然，其中一些與時間變化有關。正如蒂姆所指出的那樣，通常會出現時間變化，我們會看到我們的某些 EMEA 分銷商 Fall '22 出貨量沒有在第二季度發貨，而那些在第三季度發貨。

And then likewise, given supply chain constraints, it's hard to quantify some of this because there's -- it's so unique year-to-year right now, just given the delays we've seen. But our wholesale business on the whole has shipped earlier for Fall '22 than it did Fall '21, yet still far behind where we ideally like it to be, and that's why we've seen the cancellations.

同樣，鑑於供應鏈的限制，很難量化其中的一些，因為現在每年都是如此獨特，只是考慮到我們所看到的延誤。但總體而言，我們的批發業務在 22 年秋季發貨的時間比 21 年秋季要早，但仍遠遠落後於我們理想的狀態，這就是我們看到取消的原因。

I think if you were to adjust for the timing effects both between the quarters that I'm referencing, our growth rate for our wholesale business ex timing would still be in the double-digit level percent growth.

我認為，如果您要調整我所指的兩個季度之間的時間效應，我們的批發業務的非時間增長率仍將保持兩位數的百分比增長。

And then just on the gross margin discussion that was in the prepared remarks in terms of the increased inventory provisions. Should we assume that you're going to take most of the sort of the clearance pain in Q4? Or will this stretch out into spring or Fall 2023 as you -- I believe, Tim said he was not going to pull the panic button on the inventory clearance that you have on hand?

然後只是關於增加庫存準備金的準備好的評論中的毛利率討論。我們是否應該假設您將在第四季度承受大部分通關痛苦？或者這會像你一樣延續到 2023 年春季或秋季——我相信，蒂姆說他不會在你手頭的庫存清倉上按下緊急按鈕？

Yes, we -- yes, this is Tim. So we have a strong balance sheet, and we believe the best use of our asset in our balance sheet is to do the right thing with the inventories that we own. We'll be paying more for inventories that we buy to replace the existing inventory. So we're better served to keep the inventory and manage it through over the next several quarters. So that's our plan, and that's how we're going to approach it. We will be more promotional, very likely in Q4 just to react to the market in general.

是的，我們——是的，這是蒂姆。所以我們有一個強大的資產負債表，我們相信我們資產負債表中資產的最佳用途是對我們擁有的庫存做正確的事情。我們將為我們購買以替換現有庫存的庫存支付更多費用。因此，我們可以更好地保留庫存並在接下來的幾個季度中對其進行管理。所以這就是我們的計劃，這就是我們將如何處理它。我們將進行更多促銷，很可能在第四季度對市場做出總體反應。

And then as it relates to shipments of Spring '23 merchandise. It's quite common that we would ship a mixture of spring product to our U.S. and North America wholesale partners as well as independent distributor markets in -- at the end of the fourth quarter. But that generally varies from time to time based on the demand and the shipping -- shipment availability.

然後是與 Spring '23 商品的發貨有關。在第四季度末，我們會向我們的美國和北美批發合作夥伴以及獨立分銷商市場運送春季產品的混合物是很常見的。但這通常會根據需求和運輸——運輸可用性不時變化。

Up next, we have Mitch Kummetz with Seaport Research.

接下來，我們有 Seaport Research 的 Mitch Kummetz。

Tim, on the spring order book, I know you're lapping some really strong orders a year ago. And if I recall it correctly, I think retailers were writing bigger orders pre books last year in order to kind of guaranteed product. But as you mentioned, your inventory is flowing better now, you're approaching more normal service levels. So does that Spring '23 order book kind of reflect that retailers are going back to a more normal prebook cadence as they're recognizing you don't have to kind of line up in advance in order to guarantee product, and if that is the case, maybe that provides a better kind of reorder opportunity in the first half of '23 versus maybe what you experienced in the first half of '22?

蒂姆，在春季訂單簿上，我知道你在一年前收到了一些非常強勁的訂單。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為零售商去年為了保證產品的種類而在預訂前寫了更大的訂單。但正如您所提到的，您的庫存現在流動得更好，您正在接近更正常的服務水平。 23 年春季的訂單是否反映了零售商正在回到更正常的預訂節奏，因為他們認識到您不必為了保證產品而提前排隊，如果那是情況下，也許這在 23 年上半年提供了一種更好的重新訂購機會，而不是您在 22 年上半年所經歷的？

Yes. I would say that we were a poor performer in terms of delivery on time in Spring '22. And so I think retailers were more circumspect in terms of how they place their orders, assuming that in the very likely effect that we will have more inventory available to them to order during the season. So we will be a better -- so we will have better service levels in Spring '23 by a long shot than we had in Spring '22. And the expectation is that we'll -- those full shelves in the early part of the season will bode well for reorders.

是的。我會說我們在 22 年春季按時交付方面表現不佳。因此，我認為零售商在如何下訂單方面更加謹慎，假設我們很可能會在本季有更多庫存可供他們訂購。所以我們會變得更好——所以我們將在 23 年春季擁有比 22 年春季更好的服務水平。並且期望我們將 - 本季初期的那些滿架將是重新訂購的好兆頭。

Okay. Got it. And then, Jim, just on the margin guidance, and now you're looking for gross margin this year down 220 to 250 bps. In the CFO commentary, I think the first item that you note is the elevated freight levels. Can you quantify that impact? And can you kind of remind us where sort of like container rates are these days and air freight and kind of how that plays out over the next few quarters and when you might start to see that as a tailwind to the margins?

好的。知道了。然後，吉姆，只是在利潤率指導上，現在你正在尋找今年的毛利率下降 220 到 250 個基點。在首席財務官的評論中，我認為您注意到的第一個項目是貨運水平的提高。你能量化這種影響嗎？您能否提醒我們，這些天集裝箱費率和空運費以及未來幾個季度的情況以及您何時可能開始將其視為利潤的順風？

Yes, you bet Mitch. As it relates to the impact of inbound freight cost to our gross margin throughout this year, through the first half of the year, it was about 300 basis points of impact, and it was pretty even between Q1 and Q2. And as we sit here in Q3, we've seen that to begin to normalize, but it's still pretty impactful. So Q3, it was over 200 basis points of impact. And I would suspect that we'll continue to see that normalize in the fourth quarter. I don't know that we necessarily get to that becoming a tailwind in the fourth quarter. But certainly, as we look out to 2023, we would expect to see some benefits as we lap this year's high rates that we've been incurring.

是的，你打賭米奇。由於這涉及到入境運費成本對我們全年毛利率的影響，到今年上半年，影響約為 300 個基點，在第一季度和第二季度之間相當均衡。當我們在第三季度坐在這裡時，我們已經看到它開始正常化，但它仍然非常有影響力。所以第三季度，它的影響超過了 200 個基點。而且我懷疑我們將在第四季度繼續看到這種情況正常化。我不知道我們是否一定會在第四季度成為順風。但可以肯定的是，當我們展望 2023 年時，我們預計會看到一些好處，因為我們會經歷今年一直以來的高利率。

I think in terms of the rates themselves, they've come down substantially over the course of the last several months here. At its peak, our inbound freight rates were 6 to 7x what they were before we came through this event. As we sit here today and we project out into next year we should be closer to 2x what we were. So we're not going to get all the way back down at least with what we could see right now, all dependent upon what happens from an overall economic supply and demand perspective and how the ocean carriers manage their business. But it should be a nice benefit to offset other headwinds in our gross margins as we look out to '23.

我認為就利率本身而言，在過去幾個月裡，它們已經大幅下降。在高峰期，我們的入境運費是我們參加這次活動之前的 6 到 7 倍。當我們今天坐在這裡併計劃到明年時，我們應該更接近以前的 2 倍。因此，至少我們現在所看到的情況不會完全退縮，這一切都取決於從整體經濟供需角度來看會發生什麼，以及海運承運人如何管理他們的業務。但是，當我們展望 23 年時，抵消毛利率中的其他不利因素應該是一個很好的好處。

And Mitch, I just want to make a comment on your question regarding air freight. We avoid that virtually at all costs. So we have a very minimal amount of air freight, certainly this year. And as a historical practice, we really avoid that.

還有米奇，我只想就你關於空運的問題發表評論。我們幾乎不惜一切代價避免這種情況。所以我們的空運量非常少，當然是今年。作為一種歷史實踐，我們確實避免了這種情況。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Up next, we have Alex Perry with Bank of America.

接下來，我們有美國銀行的亞歷克斯·佩里。

Just first, could you give us maybe a little more color on sort of the shaping for next year? I think '23 wholesale shipments up modestly. Also just trying to sort of think through the puts and takes on the gross margin cadence here with the elevated inventory levels, and you talked about sort of working that through the outlet stores, maybe partially offset by some of the benefits that you sort of expect to see some freight. Just trying to sort of get some color on sort of how we should think about the business heading into next year?

首先，你能給我們在明年的造型上多一點顏色嗎？我認為'23 批發出貨量小幅上升。還只是想通過看跌期權來考慮一下，隨著庫存水平的提高，這裡的毛利率節奏，你談到了通過直銷店來解決這個問題，可能會被你所期望的一些好處部分抵消看一些運費。只是想對我們應該如何看待明年的業務有所了解？

Yes. Alex, we're -- obviously, we're not prepared to provide an outlook for '23 here today, aside from what we've described with regard to the modest growth in our wholesale business through the first half of next year. And we're looking forward, obviously, to the holiday season seeing how consumers react over the course of the next couple of months here and also being able to secure our Fall '23 wholesale order book that will put us in better shape as we come around to our year-end earnings call in February, and I can share more of that with you.

是的。亞歷克斯，我們 - 顯然，我們不准備在今天在這裡提供 23 年的前景，除了我們所描述的關於到明年上半年我們的批發業務的適度增長的情況。很明顯，我們很期待假日季，看看消費者在接下來的幾個月裡的反應如何，並且能夠確保我們的 23 年秋季批發訂單，這將使我們在到來時處於更好的狀態大約在二月份的年終收益電話會議上，我可以與您分享更多信息。

Aside from that, as you look at other elements of the P&L gross margin-wise, I touched on, I think, the variables in here are going to be the upside or the tailwind with regard to freight, I think channel mix, the wholesale business has grown substantially in 2022.

除此之外，當您查看損益表毛利率的其他元素時，我認為這裡的變量將是運費方面的上行或順風，我認為渠道組合，批發業務在 2022 年大幅增長。

We'll see how channel mix works its way out in 2023. And then on the headwind side, I think the biggest variable that we're dependent upon as are others is just what the overall environment -- the operating environment entails with the shape of the consumer and retailer sentiment and what that means in overall promotional cadence. So those are the major variables. I think currency is obviously another challenging headwind, both from a gross margin perspective as we hedge, our inventory production as well as where translation rates are. So we look forward to sharing more in February.

我們將在 2023 年看到渠道組合如何發揮作用。然後在逆風方面，我認為我們和其他人一樣依賴的最大變量就是整體環境——運營環境對形狀的影響消費者和零售商的情緒以及這在整體促銷節奏中意味著什麼。所以這些是主要的變數。我認為貨幣顯然是另一個具有挑戰性的逆風，無論是從我們對沖的毛利率的角度來看，我們的庫存生產以及翻譯率。因此，我們期待在二月份分享更多內容。

Incredibly helpful. And then maybe off of that, you took some pricing above, I think, what you've taken historically this year. As you move into next year, is it sort of pricing to offset cost inflation? Or how do you guys think about sort of pricing on a go-forward basis?

非常有幫助。然後也許除此之外，我認為你在上面採取了一些定價，這是你今年曆史上所採取的。當你進入明年時，它是一種定價來抵消成本膨脹嗎？或者你們如何看待未來的定價？

Yes. Well, we are in the process of pricing our Fall '23 products today. And we've seen increases in labor, fairly large increases across almost every market that we source in. There have been some moderation of the cost on material just due to the market reduction in demand, and we would see a commensurate reduction in demand on the ocean freight carriers. So we haven't settled on final pricing yet, and we haven't shared that with our wholesale partners. But our expectations are that the dramatic increases we've seen over the last several quarters will moderate.

是的。好吧，我們今天正在為我們的 23 年秋季產品定價。我們已經看到勞動力的增加，在我們採購的幾乎每個市場中都有相當大的增長。僅僅由於市場需求減少，材料成本已經有所緩和，我們會看到需求相應減少海運承運人。所以我們還沒有確定最終定價，也沒有與我們的批發合作夥伴分享。但我們的預期是，我們在過去幾個季度看到的大幅增長將放緩。

Yes. I think Tim is referring specifically, we're going to market with Fall '23 here pretty quick. As it relates to Spring '23 and the order book that we have, certainly, we're continuing to operate in an inflationary based environment. And with inflation, our objective has been to increase prices to offset that, and we continue to do that with a Spring '23 season. So Spring '23 prices, they're up in the same level of magnitude as what we did for Fall '22. So call it, the high single-digit level is the price increases that we've incorporated into there.

是的。我認為蒂姆特別指的是，我們將很快在 23 年秋季上市。當然，由於它與 Spring '23 和我們擁有的訂單有關，我們將繼續在基於通貨膨脹的環境中運營。隨著通貨膨脹，我們的目標是提高價格來抵消它，我們將在 23 年春季繼續這樣做。因此，23 年春季的價格上漲幅度與我們 22 年秋季的價格相同。這麼說吧，高個位數水平是我們已經納入其中的價格上漲。

The next question is coming from Steve Marotta with CL King Associates.

下一個問題來自 CL King Associates 的 Steve Marotta。

I know there's been a lot of questions regarding inventory, and I certainly realize that the intent is to piece it out in the channels that are most advantageous over the next 3 to 9 months. Is there a possibility that some of the aspects of the inventory could be packed and held until next holiday specific to either deliver into the wholesale channel or into your DTC?

我知道有很多關於庫存的問題，我當然意識到，其目的是在未來 3 到 9 個月內最有利的渠道中將其拼湊出來。庫存的某些方面是否有可能被打包並保留到下一個假期，以便交付到批發渠道或您的 DTC？

Yes, I suppose it's possible. But our intention would be to manage the cadence all the way through our business to be liquidated as you said, in the next -- the most current quarters upcoming.

是的，我想這是可能的。但我們的意圖是管理整個業務的節奏，如你所說，在接下來的最新季度即將到來的最新季度中進行清算。

Yes, there's certainly we got the Fall merchandise remaining, Steve, and we're carrying some of that for our outlet stores as an example. Certainly, that would be our intent and to Tim's point, there's a good percentage of our inventory and our product lines at our evergreen styles. And we would prefer to hold that merchandise and sell it at a higher margin next year than liquidated at distressed margins in the near term.

是的，我們肯定還有剩餘的秋季商品，史蒂夫，我們正在為我們的直銷店攜帶一些商品作為示例。當然，這將是我們的意圖，在蒂姆看來，我們的庫存和產品線中有很大一部分是我們常青的款式。而且我們更願意持有該商品並在明年以更高的利潤率出售，而不是在短期內以不良利潤率清算。

We have a question coming from Jonathan Komp with Baird.

我們有一個來自 Jonathan Komp 和 Baird 的問題。

Okay. I'd like to turn the call back to management for any closing remarks.

好的。我想將電話轉回給管理層，以獲取任何結束語。

Well, thank you for your attention and time today. We look forward to talking to you in February about the results of Q4. Thank you.

好吧，感謝您今天的關注和時間。我們期待在 2 月份與您討論第四季度的結果。謝謝你。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。你可以在這個時候斷開你的電話線，並有一個美好的一天。感謝您的參與。