Columbia Sportswear Co (COLM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Columbia Sportswear Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 Columbia Sportswear 2022 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Andrew Burns. Sir, the floor is yours.

現在，我很高興將發言權交給您的主持人 Andrew Burns。先生，地板是你的。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us to discuss Columbia Sportswear Company's second quarter results. In addition to the earnings release, we furnished an 8-K containing a detailed CFO commentary and financial review presentation, explaining our results. This document is also available on our Investor Relations website, investor.columbia.com.

下午好，感謝您加入我們討論哥倫比亞運動服裝公司的第二季度業績。除了收益發布之外，我們還提供了一份 8-K，其中包含詳細的首席財務官評論和財務審查演示文稿，解釋了我們的結果。該文件也可在我們的投資者關係網站investor.columbia.com 上找到。

With me today on the call are Chairman, President, Chief Executive Officer, Tim Boyle; Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Swanson; and Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer, Peter Bragdon.

今天與我通話的還有董事長、總裁兼首席執行官蒂姆·博伊爾；執行副總裁兼首席財務官吉姆·斯旺森；執行副總裁兼首席行政官 Peter Bragdon。

This conference call will contain forward-looking statements regarding Columbia's expectations, anticipations or beliefs about the future. These statements are expressed in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis. However, each forward-looking statement is subject to many risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from what is projected. Many of these risks and uncertainties are described in Columbia's SEC filings. We caution that forward-looking statements are inherently less reliable than historical information. We do not undertake any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this conference call to conform the forward-looking statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations. I'd also like to point out that during the call, we may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, including constant currency net sales. For further information about non-GAAP financial measures and results, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures and an explanation of management's rationale for referencing these non-GAAP measures, please refer to the supplemental financial information section and financial tables included in our earnings release and the appendix of our CFO commentary and financial review. (Operator Instructions)

本次電話會議將包含有關哥倫比亞大學對未來的期望、預期或信念的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是真誠地表達的，並被認為具有合理的依據。然而，每項前瞻性陳述都存在許多風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與預計結果大不相同。哥倫比亞向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述了其中許多風險和不確定性。我們警告說，前瞻性陳述本質上不如歷史信息可靠。我們不承擔任何義務在本次電話會議之後更新任何前瞻性陳述，以使前瞻性陳述符合實際結果或我們預期的變化。我還想指出，在電話會議期間，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計原則的財務指標，包括固定貨幣淨銷售額。有關非 GAAP 財務措施和結果的更多信息，包括 GAAP 與非 GAAP 措施的對賬以及管理層引用這些非 GAAP 措施的理由的解釋，請參閱我們的補充財務信息部分和財務表格收益發布和我們的首席財務官評論和財務審查的附錄。 （操作員說明）

Now I'll turn the call over to Tim.

現在我將把電話轉給蒂姆。

Okay. Thanks, Andrew, and good afternoon, everyone. I hope everybody is well. As I review our first half 2022 financial performance and the current environment, I'm confident that our strategies are working. We have tremendous long-term growth opportunities ahead. In the first half, SOREL net sales surged 33%, Columbia grew 12%, Mountain Hardwear grew 11% and prAna grew 3%. These results reflect the strength of our combined brand portfolio. The Columbia brand's differentiated innovation, value proposition and outdoor heritage uniquely position the brand to capitalize on the popularity of outdoor activities. SOREL continues to outperform the marketplace, led by the brand's bold new summer and year-round styles. Mountain Hardwear's product-driven resurgence is underway with innovation fueling continued growth. PrAna's leadership continues to sharpen the brand's focus on the opportunities ahead. Globally, trends vary greatly by region. Canada, Europe-direct, Japan and Korea all had excellent first half performance. These markets continue to realize a healthy pandemic recovery curve with strong consumer demand.

好的。謝謝，安德魯，大家下午好。我希望每個人都很好。當我回顧我們 2022 年上半年的財務業績和當前環境時，我相信我們的戰略正在奏效。我們有巨大的長期增長機會。上半年，SOREL 淨銷售額飆升 33%，Columbia 增長 12%，Mountain Hardwear 增長 11%，prAna 增長 3%。這些結果反映了我們組合品牌組合的實力。 Columbia 品牌的差異化創新、價值主張和戶外傳統使該品牌具有獨特的優勢，可以利用戶外活動的流行。 SOREL 在品牌大膽的新夏季和全年款式的引領下繼續超越市場。 Mountain Hardwear 以產品為導向的複興正在進行中，創新推動了持續增長。 PrAna 的領導層繼續加強品牌對未來機遇的關注。在全球範圍內，趨勢因地區而異。加拿大、歐洲直營、日本和韓國在上半年都有出色的表現。這些市場繼續實現健康的大流行複蘇曲線，消費者需求強勁。

In other regions, our business was impacted by external headwinds. In China, the impact of recent zero-COVID policies, restrictions resulted in a sharp net sales decline. As anticipated, our EMEA distributor business also declined substantially, reflecting the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the U.S., we generated strong first half net sales growth despite later receipts and deliveries of Spring '22 product, which constrained inventory availability and sell-through. The U.S. market also faced difficult comparisons as we anniversary government stimulus, which boosted consumer demand last year. We remain focused on unlocking the growth opportunities we see across all regions as we navigate these market-specific challenges and supply chain constraints. As we look forward, I believe it's prudent to take a more conservative approach to our financial outlook for the balance of the year. As the second quarter progressed, it became increasingly clear that the operating environment is evolving.

在其他地區，我們的業務受到外部不利因素的影響。在中國，近期零疫情政策的影響，限制導致淨銷售額急劇下降。正如預期的那樣，我們的 EMEA 分銷商業務也大幅下降，這反映了持續的俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突的影響。在美國，儘管 Spring '22 產品的收貨和交付較晚，但我們在上半年實現了強勁的淨銷售額增長，這限制了庫存可用性和銷售量。美國市場也面臨著難以比較的問題，因為我們紀念政府刺激措施，去年提振了消費者需求。在應對這些特定於市場的挑戰和供應鏈限制時，我們將繼續專注於釋放我們在所有地區看到的增長機會。展望未來，我認為對今年餘下的財務前景採取更保守的態度是謹慎的做法。隨著第二季度的進展，經營環境正在發生變化變得越來越明顯。

In the U.S., inflationary pressures, rising interest rates and recession fears are weighing on consumer and retailer sentiment. Our updated outlook contemplates higher order cancellation risk and more conservative DTC assumptions. It also assumes a more promotional environment as the marketplace seeks to rationalize inventory levels. We have navigated numerous economic cycles in our company's 84-year history. I'm confident that our differentiated brand portfolio, operating discipline and strong financial position will enable us to effectively manage this [cycle]. We're monitoring retail trends and our order book against this uncertain backdrop. I'm confident in the quality of our inventory, which includes a high proportion of evergreen styles that do not change season to season. This reduces our exposure to promotional pricing. We also have a fleet of outlet stores, which enables us to sell the remaining high-quality inventory profitably. As the demand environment shifts, we're focused on restraining expense growth to manage profitability. I'm excited to launch our innovative product into the marketplace as we head into the important fall season. Outerwear and winter merchandise inventories are very lean at retail after an exceptional sell-through last season. We have a robust Fall '22 order book to deliver against, and retailers are keen to get initial floor sets in place ahead of weather-driven consumer demand. I'll provide more detail regarding our updated outlook later in the call.

在美國，通脹壓力、利率上升和對經濟衰退的擔憂正在影響消費者和零售商的情緒。我們更新後的展望考慮到更高的訂單取消風險和更保守的 DTC 假設。隨著市場尋求合理化庫存水平，它還假設了一個更具促銷性的環境。在公司 84 年的歷史中，我們經歷了無數次經濟周期。我相信我們差異化的品牌組合、運營紀律和強大的財務狀況將使我們能夠有效地管理這個[週期]。在這種不確定的背景下，我們正在監控零售趨勢和我們的訂單。我對我們庫存的質量充滿信心，其中包括大部分不隨季節變化的常青款式。這減少了我們接觸促銷價格的機會。我們還擁有一批直銷店，這使我們能夠以盈利的方式出售剩餘的優質庫存。隨著需求環境的變化，我們專注於抑制費用增長以管理盈利能力。當我們進入重要的秋季時，我很高興將我們的創新產品推向市場。經過上一季的異常銷售後，外衣和冬季商品的零售庫存非常少。我們有一份強勁的 22 年秋季訂單要交付，零售商渴望在天氣驅動的消費者需求之前就位。我將在稍後的電話會議中提供有關我們更新的前景的更多詳細信息。

From our review of second quarter 2022 financial performance, I'll reference year-over-year comparisons versus second quarter 2021, unless otherwise noted. When reviewing second quarter year-over-year growth rates and margin performance, it's important to remember that the second quarter is our lowest volume sales quarter and small variances can result in large year-over-year changes in profitability that may not be indicative of the underlying business trends. Overall, our second quarter results were mixed. Net sales growth of 2% reflects robust growth in many markets, tempered by essentially no Russia-based distributor shipments, zero-COVID restrictions in China and foreign currency exchange headwinds. Net sales were below our outlook, primarily reflecting shortfalls in the U.S. and China. Despite the shortfall, we were able to slightly exceed our operating income forecast. By channel, wholesale net sales decreased 1%, including the impact of substantially lower Russia-based distributor net sales. Excluding distributor markets, global wholesale increased low teens percent, reflecting shipments of our robust Spring '22 order book. Our DTC business grew 5% year-over-year in the second quarter, driven by 11% brick-and-mortar DTC sales, partially offset by a 5% decrease in DTC e-commerce net sales. Brick and mortar growth exceeded e-commerce growth in the quarter in part due to consumers' increased desire to shop in store. E-commerce sales declined in the quarter due to lower (inaudible) China e-commerce sales.

從我們對 2022 年第二季度財務業績的回顧來看，除非另有說明，否則我將參考與 2021 年第二季度的同比比較。在回顧第二季度同比增長率和利潤率表現時，重要的是要記住，第二季度是我們銷量最低的季度，微小的差異可能導致盈利能力的同比大幅變化，這可能並不意味著潛在的商業趨勢。總體而言，我們第二季度的業績喜憂參半。 2% 的淨銷售額增長反映了許多市場的強勁增長，這主要受到俄羅斯分銷商出貨量為零、中國的零新冠疫情限制以及外匯兌換不利因素的影響。淨銷售額低於我們的預期，主要反映了美國和中國的短缺。儘管存在短缺，我們還是能夠略微超過我們的營業收入預測。按渠道劃分，批發淨銷售額下降 1%，包括俄羅斯分銷商淨銷售額大幅下降的影響。不包括分銷商市場，全球批發量增長了百分之十幾，反映了我們強勁的 Spring '22 訂單的出貨量。我們的 DTC 業務在第二季度同比增長 5%，這得益於 11% 的實體 DTC 銷售額，部分被 DTC 電子商務淨銷售額下降 5% 所抵消。本季度實體店的增長超過了電子商務的增長，部分原因是消費者在實體店購物的願望增加。由於中國電子商務銷售額下降（聽不清），本季度電子商務銷售額下降。

Gross margin contracted 240 basis points with the largest driver of contraction being higher inbound freight expenses. Gross margin performance was roughly in line with our forecast, and the overall promotional environment remained favorable during the quarter. SG&A expenses increased 7% and represent 48.7% of net sales compared to 46.2% of net sales in the second quarter of '21. The increase in SG&A expenses reflect broad-based growth across the enterprise to support sales growth as well as technology and supply chain capabilities. Personnel expense growth was driven by incremental headcount as well as wage increases. This performance resulted in a 1.5% operating margin and diluted earnings per share of $0.11.

毛利率收縮 240 個基點，收縮的最大驅動因素是更高的入境運費。毛利率表現大致符合我們的預測，本季度整體促銷環境依然良好。 SG&A 費用增長 7%，占淨銷售額的 48.7%，而 21 年第二季度占淨銷售額的 46.2%。 SG&A 費用的增加反映了整個企業的廣泛增長，以支持銷售增長以及技術和供應鏈能力。人事費用增長是由員工人數增加和工資增長推動的。這一表現導致營業利潤率為 1.5%，每股攤薄收益為 0.11 美元。

I will now review net sales performance by region. For international markets, I'll reference constant currency growth rates. Please note that strength of the U.S. dollar resulted in a 10-point translation headwind to international direct markets and a 2-point headwind to consolidated net sales. U.S. net sales increased 9% with wholesale increasing low teens percent and DTC increasing low single-digit percent. U.S. wholesale growth reflects shipments of our robust Spring '22 order book. Early season sell-through of spring merchandise was impacted by later shipments of inventory stemming from Vietnam factory closures in '21 and logistic delays. As the spring season progressed, mounting inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty appear to temper demand in the marketplace. Retail or on-hand inventories increased year-over-year as we anniversary prior year inventory shortages. With higher marketplace inventories and a rapidly changing economic environment, retailers are rationalizing their inventory needs. Despite these pressures, retail product margins -- retailer product margin remained healthy in the second quarter. Low single-digit U.S. DTC growth reflected higher brick-and-mortar net sales, partially offset by a modest decline in e-commerce net sales. Our DTC business remained generally healthy across both channels in April and May before softening in June. Latin America Asia Pacific region, or LAAP, net sales increased 2%. China was down high 40% in the quarter as the market faced strict restrictions due to its zero-COVID policy. Our China headquarters and distribution center are located in Shanghai, which was locked down for several weeks. In addition to store closures, we were unable to fulfill e-commerce orders for a lengthy period of time. Shanghai began reopening in June, several weeks later than we initially expected. Retail traffic trends are still recovering.

我現在將按地區審查淨銷售業績。對於國際市場，我將參考恆定的貨幣增長率。請注意，美元走強導致國際直接市場逆風 10 點，綜合淨銷售額逆風 2 點。美國的淨銷售額增長了 9%，批發增長了低個位數百分比，而 DTC 增長了低個位數百分比。美國批發增長反映了我們強勁的 22 年春季訂單的出貨量。由於 21 年越南工廠關閉和物流延遲，後期庫存發貨影響了春季商品的早期銷售。隨著春季的進行，不斷增加的通脹壓力和經濟不確定性似乎抑制了市場需求。由於我們對上一年的庫存短缺進行週年紀念，零售或現有庫存同比增加。隨著更高的市場庫存和快速變化的經濟環境，零售商正在合理化他們的庫存需求。儘管存在這些壓力，零售產品利潤率——零售商產品利潤率在第二季度仍然保持健康。美國 DTC 的低個位數增長反映了實體店淨銷售額的增加，部分被電子商務淨銷售額的小幅下降所抵消。我們的 DTC 業務在 4 月和 5 月的兩個渠道總體上保持健康，然後在 6 月出現疲軟。拉丁美洲亞太地區（LAAP）的淨銷售額增長了 2%。中國在本季度下跌了 40%，因為市場由於其零新冠政策而面臨嚴格的限制。我們的中國總部和配送中心位於上海，已被封鎖數週。除了關閉商店外，我們在很長一段時間內都無法履行電子商務訂單。上海於 6 月開始重新開放，比我們最初預期的晚了幾週。零售客流量趨勢仍在復蘇。

On a positive note, the 618 online sales event was a success with double-digit year-over-year growth. Japan increased mid-30% driven by strong consumer demand and the lapping of state of emergency declarations, which hindered sales in the prior year. Korea grew high teens percent led by strong DTC performance. Improving retail operating efficiency is contributing to our success in Korea. The team continues to focus on enhanced in-store marketing and heightened SKU productivity. The pandemic has reinvigorated consumer interest in outdoor activities in Korea. During the quarter, Columbia participated in the Go Outdoor Camp festival. Thousands of attendees celebrated camping and outdoor life and toured Columbia's high-energy installation. LAAP distributor markets were up low double digits percent driven by shipment of higher Fall '22 orders. Europe, Middle East, Africa region, or EMEA, net sales decreased 30%. This decline was driven by substantially lower sales to our Russia-based distributor, partially offset by strength in our Europe-direct business. Europe-direct grew low 30%, fueled by Columbia brand momentum and a recovery in consumer demand. We experienced strong performance in brick and mortar across both DTC and wholesale channels. Robust growth with strategic partners in the sporting goods channel was notable. Our EMEA distributor business was down low 70%. Canada net sales increased 74%, with high growth across wholesale and DTC as we anniversary prior year pandemic-related disruptions.

積極的一面是，618 在線銷售活動取得了成功，同比增長兩位數。受強勁的消費需求和緊急狀態聲明的推動，日本增長了 30% 左右，這阻礙了上一年的銷售。在強勁的 DTC 表現的帶動下，韓國增長了 10%。提高零售運營效率有助於我們在韓國取得成功。該團隊繼續專注於增強店內營銷和提高 SKU 生產力。大流行重新激發了韓國消費者對戶外活動的興趣。在本季度，哥倫比亞參加了 Go Outdoor Camp 節。成千上萬的與會者慶祝露營和戶外生活，並參觀了哥倫比亞的高能裝置。由於 22 年秋季訂單的出貨量增加，LAAP 分銷商市場增長了兩位數。歐洲、中東、非洲地區或 EMEA，淨銷售額下降 30%。這一下降是由於我們在俄羅斯的分銷商的銷售額大幅下降，部分被我們歐洲直接業務的實力所抵消。在哥倫比亞品牌勢頭和消費者需求復甦的推動下，歐洲直航增長了 30%。我們在 DTC 和批發渠道的實體店表現強勁。體育用品渠道與戰略合作夥伴的強勁增長令人矚目。我們的 EMEA 分銷商業務下降了 70%。加拿大的淨銷售額增長了 74%，批發和 DTC 的高增長是我們去年與大流行相關的中斷週年紀念日。

Looking at performance by brand. SOREL was our fastest-growing brand in the quarter. Net sales increased 24% despite supply chain challenges, driven by strong wholesale and DTC performance. By category, growth was given -- growth was driven by year-round and summer categories, including sneakers, wedges and sandals. SOREL's potential to become a $1 billion footwear brand is evident, and we're investing in demand creation and product design to fuel that growth. Turning to the Columbia brand. Net sales were flat in the second quarter. Strong growth in many markets was tempered by essentially no Russia-based distributor business, zero -COVID restrictions in China and foreign currency exchange headwinds. On the product partnership front, we're continuing our successful collaboration with Disney and Lucasfilm with another Star Wars offering. For this collection, which will be released in the coming days, we've combined the iconic PFG Tamiami shirt with elements of classic Star War comics. The shirt's print features legendary Star Wars characters, Chewbacca, R2-D2 and Han Solo. Columbia recently collaborated with Madhappy to launch a new Summer '22 outdoors collection. Madhappy is a global lifestyle brand on a mission to make the world a more optimistic place. The collection brings awareness to the connection between spending time outdoors and improving our mental health. The line features a variety of styles and silhouettes that incorporate Columbia's innovative outdoor technology. During the quarter, a number of Columbia products have been featured in consumer and industry publications. In Apparel, Columbia's innovative sun protection technology was featured in Gear Patrol and outdoor gear lab articles, highlighting the Terminal Deflector Zero Hoodie, the Silver Ridge long sleeve shirt and the PFG Tidal Tee Hoodie. Columbia's Back Bowl fleece made Outside Magazine's list of best fleeces of 2022. In footwear, both travel and leisure and outdoor gear lab featured the Newton Ridge hiking boots in their list of best hiking boots for women.

按品牌看業績。 SOREL 是我們本季度增長最快的品牌。儘管供應鏈面臨挑戰，但在強勁的批發和 DTC 業績的推動下，淨銷售額增長了 24%。按類別劃分，增長是由全年和夏季類別推動的，包括運動鞋、坡跟鞋和涼鞋。 SOREL 成為價值 10 億美元的鞋類品牌的潛力是顯而易見的，我們正在投資於需求創造和產品設計以推動這一增長。轉向哥倫比亞品牌。第二季度淨銷售額持平。許多市場的強勁增長受到基本上沒有俄羅斯分銷商業務、中國的零新冠病毒限制以及外匯兌換逆風的影響。在產品合作方面，我們將繼續與迪士尼和盧卡斯影業成功合作，推出另一款星球大戰產品。對於將在未來幾天發布的這個系列，我們將標誌性的 PFG Tamiami 襯衫與經典星球大戰漫畫的元素相結合。球衣上印有傳奇的星球大戰人物丘巴卡、R2-D2 和漢·索羅。 Columbia 最近與 Madhappy 合作推出了一個新的 Summer '22 戶外系列。 Madhappy 是一個全球生活方式品牌，其使命是讓世界變得更加樂觀。該系列讓人們意識到在戶外度過時間與改善我們的心理健康之間的聯繫。該系列具有多種款式和輪廓，融合了哥倫比亞的創新戶外技術。在本季度，哥倫比亞的一些產品出現在消費者和行業出版物中。在服裝方面，哥倫比亞的創新防曬技術出現在 Gear Patrol 和戶外裝備實驗室文章中，突出了 Terminal Deflector Zero 連帽衫、Silver Ridge 長袖襯衫和 PFG Tidal Tee 連帽衫。 Columbia 的 Back Bowl 羊毛登上了 Outside Magazine 的 2022 年最佳羊毛名單。在鞋類方面，旅遊休閒和戶外裝備實驗室都將 Newton Ridge 登山靴列為女性最佳登山靴。

Earlier this month, Columbia sponsored athlete Bubba Wallace unveiled a bright new look to his #23 car for the NASCAR Cup Series race at Road America. The car featured the PFG Fish Flag scheme with dozens of fish forming the red stripes of the American flag down the side of the car. The PFG Fish Flag is our top-selling baseball cap with millions of units sold since its launch. The ball caps are one of our fastest-growing products. We believe this speaks to the consumer's brand affinity for Columbia, combined with a product that celebrates the love of country and outdoors. We will continue to bring products to market that celebrate places and build emotional connections with consumers. As we look forward to this fall, the Columbia brand's top global priority from a product and marketing standpoint is continuing to build momentum around Omni-Heat Infinity. We will be running a worldwide integrated marketing campaign featuring Omni-Heat Infinity as the gold standard in warmth, focused on how the technology works and why it matters for consumers. As you know, poly fleece is one of the largest outdoor product categories. We believe the introduction of Omni-Heat Helix this fall will bring disruptive innovation to this largely undifferentiated category. Omni-Heat Helix is the first of its kind patented visible technology. It utilizes highly efficient insulation cells to maximize warmth and provide breathability. Shifting back to our emerging brands, prAna net sales increased 3%. Sales growth in the quarter was constrained by [late receipt] of Spring '22 inventory. The prAna team is working to reposition the brand in the marketplace in the coming seasons. Mountain Hardwear net sales increased 18%. The brand had several product highlights in the quarter. For Spring '22, Mountain Hardwear introduced the new Kor Airshell collection. This ultra-packable stretch layer quickly became Mountain Hardwear's top performing shell. The New York Times' Wirecutter Product-Review website concluded that Mountain Hardwear's Mineral King Tent is the best 2-person car camping tent. The tent features an ultralight suspension system and was described as one of the easiest tents in the market to set up.

本月早些時候，哥倫比亞贊助的運動員 Bubba Wallace 為他在 Road America 舉行的 NASCAR 杯系列賽的 23 號賽車揭開了亮麗的新面貌。這輛車採用了 PFG 魚旗方案，數十條魚在汽車側面形成了美國國旗的紅色條紋。 PFG Fish Flag 是我們最暢銷的棒球帽，自推出以來已售出數百萬件。球帽是我們增長最快的產品之一。我們相信這說明了消費者對哥倫比亞的品牌親和力，以及頌揚對鄉村和戶外活動的熱愛的產品。我們將繼續將產品推向市場，以慶祝地方並與消費者建立情感聯繫。正如我們對今年秋天的展望，從產品和營銷的角度來看，哥倫比亞品牌在全球的首要任務是繼續圍繞 Omni-Heat Infinity 建立動力。我們將開展全球整合營銷活動，將 Omni-Heat Infinity 作為保暖的黃金標準，重點關注技術的工作原理以及它對消費者的重要性。如您所知，聚羊毛是最大的戶外產品類別之一。我們相信，今年秋天推出的 Omni-Heat Helix 將為這個基本上沒有差異化的類別帶來顛覆性創新。 Omni-Heat Helix 是同類專利中的第一個可見技術。它利用高效的絕緣細胞來最大限度地保暖並提供透氣性。轉向我們的新興品牌，prAna 淨銷售額增長了 3%。本季度的銷售增長受到 22 年春季庫存的 [遲收] 的限制。 prAna 團隊正在努力在未來幾季重新定位該品牌在市場上的位置。 Mountain Hardwear 的淨銷售額增長了 18%。該品牌在本季度有幾個產品亮點。 22 年春季，Mountain Hardwear 推出了新的 Kor Airshell 系列。這種超級可壓縮的彈力層迅速成為 Mountain Hardwear 性能最好的外殼。紐約時報的 Wirecutter 產品評論網站得出的結論是，Mountain Hardwear 的礦物王帳篷是最好的 2 人汽車露營帳篷。該帳篷採用超輕懸掛系統，被描述為市場上最容易搭建的帳篷之一。

Before moving to our financial performance -- excuse me, before moving to our financial outlook, I'd like to note the recent appointment of Christiana Smith Shi to our Board of Directors. Christiana is currently the Principal at Lovejoy Advisors, where she helps brands digitally transform their business. She also serves on the Board of 2 of the publicly traded companies. I look forward to leveraging her insight to help us grow our company.

在談到我們的財務業績之前——對不起，在談到我們的財務前景之前，我想先提一下最近任命克里斯蒂安娜·史密斯 (Christiana Smith Shi) 為我們的董事會成員。 Christiana 目前是 Lovejoy Advisors 的負責人，她幫助品牌實現業務數字化轉型。她還在兩家上市公司的董事會任職。我期待利用她的洞察力幫助我們發展公司。

I'll now discuss our updated '22 financial outlook. This outlook and commentary include forward-looking statements. Please see our CFO commentary and financial review presentation for additional details and disclosures relating to these statements. Based on the current environment and growing economic uncertainty, we believe it's prudent to take a more conservative approach to our financial outlook for the balance of the year. Supply chain challenges remain elevated and are anticipated to continue throughout the rest of the year. We have worked to mitigate supply chain constraints by taking orders earlier from our retail partners and placing orders earlier with our factory partners. West Coast port labor contract negotiations could further complicate inbound freight logistics. We have diversified our port exposure and expect less than 40% of our second half inventory will go through West Coast ports, covered by the ILWU labor contract. Our updated outlook contemplates higher order cancellations and a more conservative DTC assumption as well as a more promotional environment as the marketplace seeks to rationalize inventory levels. We have also taken a more conservative outlook in China for the balance of the year as COVID restrictions are impacting the markets. On the invasion of Ukraine, we pause taking any new orders from our Russia-based distributor from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. As we disclosed last quarter, the company had pre-existing contractual obligations for Fall '22 orders taken before the invasion. Given the uncertainty surrounding these Fall '22 orders, we previously removed any of those sales from our financial outlook. Our updated financial outlook now includes a portion of this distributors contracted Fall '22 orders being realized in the second half of the year. Foreign currency exchange headwinds are now expected to unfavorably impact full year net sales growth by 3% and diluted earnings per share by $0.15 to $0.20. Based on these and other factors, we now forecast net sales to grow 10% to 12% year-over-year. Gross margin is expected to contract between 180 and 210 basis points. SG&A expenses are forecast to grow roughly in line with net sales. We expect operating margin to be in the range of 12.1% to 12.8% compared to 14.4% in 2021. This results in a diluted earnings per share outlook of $5 to $5.40. Based on our year-to-date share repurchases, we now estimate our diluted share count for the year to be 63 million shares. For the third quarter, we anticipate net sales growth of approximately 20%. This high level of sales growth is primarily driven by the (inaudible) our Fall '22 order book and modest DTC growth.

我現在將討論我們更新的 '22 財務展望。本展望和評論包括前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們的首席財務官評論和財務審查演示文稿，了解與這些報表相關的更多詳細信息和披露。基於當前環境和日益增長的經濟不確定性，我們認為對今年餘下的財務前景採取更保守的態度是謹慎的做法。供應鏈挑戰依然嚴峻，預計將在今年餘下時間繼續存在。我們通過更早地從我們的零售合作夥伴處接受訂單並更早地向我們的工廠合作夥伴下訂單來努力緩解供應鏈限制。西海岸港口勞動合同談判可能會使入境貨運物流進一步複雜化。我們已將港口業務多元化，預計下半年不到 40% 的庫存將通過 ILWU 勞動合同涵蓋的西海岸港口。隨著市場尋求合理化庫存水平，我們更新的展望考慮了更高的訂單取消和更保守的 DTC 假設以及更具促銷性的環境。由於 COVID 限制正在影響市場，我們還對今年餘下時間的中國採取了更為保守的展望。在入侵烏克蘭時，我們暫停接受來自俄羅斯、烏克蘭和白俄羅斯的俄羅斯經銷商的任何新訂單。正如我們上個季度披露的那樣，該公司對入侵前的 22 年秋季訂單具有預先存在的合同義務。鑑於這些 22 年秋季訂單的不確定性，我們之前從我們的財務前景中刪除了任何這些銷售。我們更新的財務展望現在包括部分分銷商簽訂的 22 年秋季訂單將在下半年實現。現在預計外匯逆風將對全年淨銷售額增長 3% 和攤薄後每股收益產生 0.15 美元至 0.20 美元的不利影響。基於這些和其他因素，我們現在預測淨銷售額將同比增長 10% 至 12%。毛利率預計將收縮 180 至 210 個基點。 SG&A 費用預計將與淨銷售額大致同步增長。我們預計營業利潤率將在 12.1% 至 12.8% 之間，而 2021 年為 14.4%。這導致稀釋後的每股收益前景為 5 美元至 5.40 美元。根據我們年初至今的股票回購，我們現在估計我們今年的稀釋後股票數量為 6300 萬股。對於第三季度，我們預計淨銷售額增長約 20%。這種高水平的銷售增長主要是由（聽不清）我們的 22 年秋季訂單和適度的 DTC 增長推動的。

As we highlighted on our last call, we'll be hosting an Investor Day at our campus here in Portland on September 22. We look forward to showcasing the brand strategies and exciting products that are fueling our growth. Invitations for this event will be sent out in the coming days. Before my closing remarks, I'd like to highlight the fact that we recently released our 2021 environmental, social and governance report, which is available on our website. I'd encourage you to review the report, which outlines the progress and accomplishments that we made empowering people, sustaining places and promoting responsible practices. In summary, I'm confident we have the right strategies in place to navigate this dynamic environment and unlock the significant growth opportunities we see across the business. We're investing in our strategic priorities to drive brand awareness and sales growth through increased focused demand creation investments, enhance consumer experience and digital capabilities in all of our channels and geographies, expand and improve global direct-to-consumer operations with supporting processes and systems and invest in our people and optimize our organization across our portfolio of brands.

正如我們在上次電話會議中強調的那樣，我們將於 9 月 22 日在我們位於波特蘭的園區舉辦投資者日活動。我們期待展示推動我們增長的品牌戰略和令人興奮的產品。本次活動的邀請函將在未來幾天內發出。在結束髮言之前，我想強調一個事實，即我們最近發布了 2021 年環境、社會和治理報告，該報告可在我們的網站上找到。我鼓勵您查看該報告，該報告概述了我們在賦予人們權力、維持場所和促進負責任的做法方面取得的進展和成就。總而言之，我相信我們制定了正確的戰略來駕馭這種動態環境並釋放我們在整個業務中看到的重大增長機會。我們正在投資於我們的戰略重點，通過增加重點需求創造投資來推動品牌知名度和銷售增長，增強我們所有渠道和地區的消費者體驗和數字能力，通過支持流程擴大和改善全球直接面向消費者的運營，以及系統並投資於我們的員工，並在我們的品牌組合中優化我們的組織。

That concludes my prepared remarks. We welcome your questions. Operator, could you help us with that?

我準備好的發言到此結束。我們歡迎您的提問。接線員，你能幫幫我們嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The first question is coming from Bob Drbul with Guggenheim.

第一個問題來自古根海姆的 Bob Drbul。

A couple of questions. From your perspective on -- I guess if we could start on the inventory side, can you just give us a little more color around the composition of the inventory? Maybe some color on cancellations, how you're approaching it? Will you just solely use your outlet business on the inventory. I don't know if there's like buckets of -- so you said you've got a lot of evergreen type merchandise in there, but any more color on the inventory and sort of plans or disposition, I think, would be pretty helpful for us. And any more color on the order book and any early numbers on '23?

幾個問題。從您的角度來看——我想如果我們可以從庫存方面開始，您能否就庫存的構成給我們更多的色彩？也許取消的一些顏色，你是如何接近它的？你會只在庫存上使用你的奧特萊斯業務嗎？我不知道是否有桶——所以你說你那裡有很多常青型商品，但我認為庫存上的任何顏色以及計劃或處置方式都會非常有幫助我們。訂單簿上還有更多顏色以及 23 年的任何早期數字嗎？

Sure. Well, as you remember, we're a seasonal business so we have a high percentage of our inventory today is fall inventory, and we're looking at a global lack of inventory at retail in the winter merchandise. So we're confident that we've got a good opportunity to fulfill our order book and get that merchandise into retailers. We're just a little concerned about the state of the consumer at this point. And so that's why we've noted the potential for cancellations later in the season. We have a strong balance sheet. We have multiple methods to just to liquidate our inventories, not only through the value channel and some of our regular retailers in terms of closeouts but also through our own extensive outlet chain. And so that's how we're looking at it. We've got the potential to be -- to improve our situation, but a lot of it is depending on what the consumer does in the next few months. As it relates to the order book, we've got a high percentage of our order book in already for fall -- excuse me, for Spring '23, and it shows that we're going to grow them in Spring '23. So we're pleased with that, and we've got a lot of great opportunity ahead of us.

當然。好吧，您還記得，我們是一家季節性企業，因此我們今天的庫存中有很大一部分是秋季庫存，我們正在研究冬季商品零售的全球庫存不足。因此，我們相信我們有一個很好的機會來完成我們的訂單並將該商品送到零售商那裡。在這一點上，我們只是有點擔心消費者的狀態。這就是為什麼我們注意到本賽季晚些時候取消的可能性。我們擁有強大的資產負債表。我們有多種方法來清理我們的庫存，不僅通過價值渠道和我們的一些常規零售商進行清倉，還通過我們自己廣泛的出口鏈。這就是我們看待它的方式。我們有潛力——改善我們的情況，但很大程度上取決於消費者在接下來的幾個月裡會做什麼。由於它與訂單簿有關，我們已經有很大比例的秋季訂單簿 - 對不起，對於 23 年春季，這表明我們將在 23 年春季增加它們。所以我們對此感到高興，我們面前有很多很好的機會。

Yes, Bob, and I would just add. As it relates to inventory composition, the quality of our inventory remains quite healthy. The aging is highly current, in line with where we've historically been. Certainly, inventory is a bit more elevated. We're carrying a bit more excess than we traditionally do. But as Tim touched on, we believe it's very manageable. And we would certainly look to leverage our outlet stores and buy more tightly to anticipated demand as we look out to next year and leverage those outlets to sell that product profitably.

是的，鮑勃，我想補充一下。由於它與庫存構成有關，我們的庫存質量仍然相當健康。老化是高度當前的，與我們歷史上的情況一致。當然，庫存要高一些。我們攜帶的東西比傳統上要多一些。但正如蒂姆所提到的，我們相信這是非常易於管理的。我們當然會尋求利用我們的直銷店，並在我們展望明年時更緊密地購買預期需求，並利用這些直銷店以盈利方式銷售該產品。

The next question is coming from Jim Duffy with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Jim Duffy 和 Stifel。

I wanted to start just digging in some on the second quarter. Can you help us understand how much the U.S. was light of expectations in the quarter? And how much of that was change in demand, end market demand versus product flow issues that caused you to miss some shipments?

我想在第二季度開始挖掘一些。您能否幫助我們了解本季度美國在多大程度上低於預期？其中有多少是需求變化、終端市場需求與產品流問題導致您錯過了一些發貨？

Yes, Jim, as it relates to our second quarter versus our internal outlook, we were off kind of high -- mid- to high-teen number. And half of that was associated with China and the lockdowns lasting longer in duration than we had initially anticipated. The balance of the half, call it, in the $8 million to $10 million range, that was U.S. related and part of that was wholesale based with regard to cancellations that we saw. And I think those cancellations are, by and large, what Tim had reflected in terms of being late in delivering supply to the marketplace in the early part of the quarter and then some softening that we saw in the latter part. And then D2C made up a component of that as well, and as we touched on -- in the month of April and May, our D2C business performed quite well. As we got into the month of June, we saw some declines in traffic levels where that softened and that's essentially where you're seeing the performance relative to the guidance we previously provided.

是的，吉姆，因為它與我們的第二季度與我們的內部前景有關，我們的數字有點高——中高。其中一半與中國有關，封鎖的持續時間比我們最初預期的要長。剩下的一半，稱為 800 萬至 1000 萬美元，與美國有關，其中一部分是基於我們看到的取消的批發。而且我認為，總的來說，這些取消是蒂姆所反映的，即在本季度初向市場提供供應的時間較晚，然後我們在後半部分看到了一些軟化。然後 D2C 也構成了其中的一個組成部分，正如我們所談到的 - 在 4 月和 5 月，我們的 D2C 業務表現相當不錯。當我們進入 6 月份時，我們看到流量水平有所下降，但這種情況有所減弱，這基本上就是您看到與我們之前提供的指導相關的表現的地方。

Understood. And then can you help us think about spring product inventories in the channel currently. In the CFO commentary document, there was some mention of anticipated accommodations. Are you indeed building that into the guidance that you've provided for the back half?

明白了。那您能幫我們想想目前渠道中的春季產品庫存嗎？在首席財務官的評論文件中，提到了一些預期的調整。您是否確實將其納入您為後半部分提供的指導中？

Well, as it relates to spring inventory, Jim, we did take incremental cancellations relative to what we historically would have given where marketplace inventories stand at this point in time. And so we're really seeing this being much more a function of cancellations as opposed to anything significant in the way of accommodations or returns. They're -- to a lesser extent, there's some of that, but by far and away, the more significant element that's impacting us, and we've been tentative to this as well. We want to make sure that we're keeping the marketplace clean in terms of the amount of inventory that we have out there. So we've been proactively working with our retailers throughout the season.

好吧，由於它與春季庫存有關，吉姆，我們確實採取了相對於我們歷史上會給出的市場庫存在這個時間點的位置的增量取消。因此，我們確實看到這更多是取消的功能，而不是住宿或退貨方式上的任何重要事項。它們是——在較小的程度上，有一些，但到目前為止，影響我們的更重要的因素，我們也一直在試探這一點。我們希望確保就我們擁有的庫存數量而言，我們保持市場清潔。因此，我們在整個季節都積極與零售商合作。

The next question is coming from Laurent Vasilescu with BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Laurent Vasilescu。

I was hoping to ask about the full year guidance that 600 basis points midpoint cut full year. Correct me if I'm wrong, Jim, I think about 180 bps is FX versus the last CFO commentary, you've got about 420 bps of pressure here. How do we think about that from a brand perspective? I think your CFO commentary talked about that SOREL is still the fastest-growing brand. Is there any really step change function in one particular brand? And then another way to look at it is, I think you gave us some high-level color about regions in the CFO commentary, but how do we think about just that bridge of that 420 bps decline from a geo perspective?

我希望詢問全年將中點下調 600 個基點的全年指導。如果我錯了，請糾正我，Jim，我認為 180 個基點是 FX 與上次 CFO 評論相比，你在這裡有大約 420 個基點的壓力。我們如何從品牌的角度思考這個問題？我認為您的首席財務官評論談到 SOREL 仍然是增長最快的品牌。在某個特定品牌中是否有任何真正的階躍變化功能？然後另一種看待它的方式是，我認為您在首席財務官的評論中給了我們一些關於地區的高級色彩，但是我們如何從地理角度考慮這 420 個基點下降的橋樑？

Yes. The reduction in our outlook on the year is predominantly revenue and to a lesser degree related to gross margin. And from a revenue standpoint, it's probably a bit more weighted on the Columbia side. The Columbia brand is the only brand as an example, that we distribute in China. So there's going to be a factor related to that. The size of the Columbia business internationally and when you think about some of the currency pressures, that's going to also pertain to the Columbia brand. So by and large, it's going to be in that part, Laurent. The other emerging brands are certainly going to have reductions as well because a lot of the pressure that we're anticipating. Our second quarter results were still quite strong. This is really in anticipation of the broader economic climate, particularly here in the U.S. So when we took the top line down in our full year guidance aside from currency in China, the lion's share of the balance of the change is U.S.-based. Our business internationally in U.S. and other of the Asian markets, ex-China are continuing to perform quite well.

是的。我們對今年前景的下調主要是收入，在較小程度上與毛利率有關。從收入的角度來看，它可能在哥倫比亞方面更受重視。哥倫比亞品牌是我們在中國經銷的唯一品牌。所以會有一個與此相關的因素。哥倫比亞在國際上的業務規模以及當你考慮到一些貨幣壓力時，這也與哥倫比亞品牌有關。所以總的來說，它會在那個部分，勞倫特。其他新興品牌肯定也會減少，因為我們預期的壓力很大。我們第二季度的業績仍然相當強勁。這確實是對更廣泛的經濟環境的預期，尤其是在美國。因此，當我們在全年指引中除中國貨幣之外的最高線時，變化平衡的最大份額是基於美國的。我們在美國和其他亞洲市場（中國除外）的國際業務繼續表現良好。

Very helpful, Jim. And then in your CFO slides, you're calling for about 20% growth in 3Q, which would imply 4Q, it would be up low single digits. Is the 20% growth rate that you're calling for higher, lower or equal to what you expected 90 days ago? And on 4Q, what's driving that slowdown? Is it driven by wholesale order cuts, which I think you (inaudible) just increased caution from the macro factors with the economy?

非常有幫助，吉姆。然後在您的首席財務官幻燈片中，您要求在第三季度實現約 20% 的增長，這意味著第四季度，這將是個位數的低增長。你所要求的 20% 的增長率是否高於、低於或等於你 90 天前的預期？在第四季度，是什麼推動了經濟放緩？它是由批發訂單削減驅動的嗎，我認為您（聽不清）只是對宏觀經濟因素增加了謹慎態度？

Yes, a lot of -- so the difference between Q3 and Q4, Laurent, is largely going to relate to timing shifts in the delivery of our wholesale shipments for the Fall '22 season. If you recall a year ago, we were late in getting Fall '21 product to market, and so it was a bit more weighted to the fourth quarter. We've seen some improvement in our expectations around receipt of inventory and shipment out to our customers, albeit not where we'd like it to be. And it will be late relative to historical terms, but better than where we were last year. And so the lion's share of the 20% growth is going to be exactly that, just the shift in our expectations around the wholesale business. And then how much that's changed versus where we were 90 days ago, I don't have that. I don't have that handy.

是的，很多——所以第三季度和第四季度之間的差異，洛朗，很大程度上與我們在 22 年秋季季節批發貨物交付的時間變化有關。如果您還記得一年前，我們將 21 年秋季產品推向市場的時間較晚，因此對第四季度的影響更大。我們已經看到我們對接收庫存和發貨給客戶的期望有所改善，儘管不是我們想要的。相對於歷史而言，這將晚一些，但比我們去年的情況要好。因此，在 20% 的增長中，最大的份額將完全是這樣，只是我們對批發業務的期望發生了轉變。然後與我們 90 天前的情況相比，這發生了多少變化，我沒有。我沒有那個方便。

No worries. And if I can squeeze in one on the GM, last question here. Obviously, you notched down the gross margin by 100 bps for the full year. But if I kind of bridge the 20% growth for top line and then the imply, let's say, [$1.62] in EPS for 3Q, it would imply a pretty significant gross margin impact in 3Q. I don't know, maybe upwards of 300 to 400 bps. Is that the right way to think about it? Or -- maybe can you give us any guardrails on how we think about 3Q, 4Q evolution of GMs?

不用擔心。如果我可以在 GM 上加入一個，最後一個問題。顯然，您將全年的毛利率降低了 100 個基點。但是，如果我將頂線 20% 的增長與第三季度每股收益 [1.62 美元] 的暗示聯繫起來，這將意味著第三季度的毛利率影響相當大。我不知道，可能超過 300 到 400 bps。這是正確的思考方式嗎？或者——也許你能給我們一些關於我們如何看待 GM 的 3Q、4Q 演變的護欄嗎？

Yes. I mean the third quarter will be on par with essentially what we've experienced through the first half of the year. Keep in mind, we'll continue to have certain of the inbound ocean freight costs hit us disproportionately in the third quarter before that becomes a bit more of a tailwind in the fourth quarter. So if you think about in those terms, gross margin will still be down in the fourth quarter, but not to the degree that we've seen through the first 9 months. And the reason being is, the ocean freight will become a tailwind. And then the big thing also that we've adjusted in the gross margin outlook is just that we're contemplating a higher inventory balance. And with that, we do see the risk of the marketplace being more promotional and making sure that we've adjusted our outlook to be able to respond to changes in consumer demand and market conditions.

是的。我的意思是第三季度將與我們在今年上半年所經歷的基本持平。請記住，我們將繼續讓某些入境海運成本在第三季度不成比例地打擊我們，然後在第四季度變得更加順風。因此，如果您從這些方面考慮，第四季度的毛利率仍將下降，但不會達到我們在前 9 個月看到的程度。原因是，海運將成為順風。然後我們在毛利率前景中調整的一件大事就是我們正在考慮更高的庫存餘額。有了這個，我們確實看到了市場更具促銷性的風險，並確保我們已經調整了我們的前景，以便能夠應對消費者需求和市場條件的變化。

The next question is coming from Camilo Lyon with BTIG.

下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Camilo Lyon。

This is Mackenzie Boydston on for Camilo. Kind of dovetailing on what you -- your last response on ocean freight. I just want to confirm, so it seems like Q4 then, you're still contemplating will be a tailwind to margins and then continuing into '23.

這是 Camilo 的 Mackenzie Boydston。與您的內容相吻合-您對海運的最後回應。我只是想確認一下，所以看起來第四季度，你仍然在考慮會成為利潤的順風，然後繼續到 23 年。

Yes. We secured freight contracts with our ocean carriers dated back early this year. So we're confident with the contracts that we've got in place. We have built into our outlook, however, given where oil prices are. We have built in some costs as it pertains to fuel surcharges until we see oil abate.

是的。早在今年年初，我們就與海運承運商簽訂了貨運合同。因此，我們對已簽訂的合同充滿信心。然而，考慮到油價的走勢，我們已將其納入我們的展望。我們已經建立了一些成本，因為它與燃料附加費有關，直到我們看到石油減少。

Okay. That's great. And then I guess in terms of demand trends you saw in Q2, is there any specific callouts by month you could provide? And then kind of any update on the consumer landscape that you're seeing into July would be helpful.

好的。那太棒了。然後我想就您在第二季度看到的需求趨勢而言，您可以提供按月計算的任何具體標註嗎？然後，您在 7 月份看到的有關消費者格局的任何更新都會有所幫助。

Well, that it pertains to Q2, and as Tim touched on the prepared remarks, April and May, business was still quite healthy. Looking at the D2C business, in particular, we were essentially on plan. And then I think as the economic news, inflation in particular, and just risk of recession has continued to weigh on the minds of at least the U.S. consumer that we began seeing some of that trickle through in the form of lighter traffic levels and softness in demand in latter part of the quarter. And we've seen that to some degree, I would say that trend has continued in the early part of July.

嗯，它與第二季度有關，當蒂姆談到準備好的評論時，4 月和 5 月，業務仍然相當健康。尤其是 D2C 業務，我們基本上是按計劃進行的。然後我認為，隨著經濟新聞，特別是通貨膨脹，以及經濟衰退的風險，至少美國消費者的心智持續受到影響，我們開始看到其中的一些涓涓細流，表現為交通水平降低和經濟疲軟。本季度後期的需求。我們已經在某種程度上看到了這一點，我想說這種趨勢在 7 月初仍在繼續。

The next question is coming from John Kernan with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 John Kernan 和 Cowen。

Could you talk to where you think inventory levels will be maybe by the end of 4Q? I think some of the peers in the space (inaudible) this quarter. I'm just curious where you think inventory shakes out as we get into next year?

您能否談談您認為到第四季度末庫存水平可能會達到的水平？我認為本季度該領域的一些同行（聽不清）。我只是好奇你認為我們進入明年庫存會在哪裡發生變化？

Yes. I think as it relates to inventory, we would anticipate that at the end of the third quarter is where we would anticipate more of our peak and looking at the rate of growth in inventory being at or greater than where we are here in the second quarter at June 30. And then as we get out to the end of the year, we'd anticipate it to begin to come down, albeit remain elevated. I'd put it probably in the low 30% range. But keep in mind, trying to nail that number down just given the amount of inventory production that we'll have for Spring '23 and the timing of that can create some volatility in what our inventory positions are at the end of the year.

是的。我認為，由於它與庫存有關，我們預計在第三季度末，我們預計會達到更多峰值，並且庫存增長率將達到或高於第二季度的水平在 6 月 30 日。然後當我們到年底時，我們預計它會開始下降，儘管仍然處於高位。我認為它可能在 30% 的低範圍內。但請記住，僅僅考慮到我們將在 23 年春季擁有的庫存生產量以及生產的時間安排，試圖確定這個數字可能會在年底時對我們的庫存狀況造成一些波動。

Understood. Maybe just on price increases. Can you talk to the impact of price increases anticipated in the guidance for the back half year?

明白了。也許只是價格上漲。您能否談談下半年指引中預期的價格上漲的影響？

Are you talking about our costs or our selling price this quarter?

您是在談論我們本季度的成本還是我們的售價？

Selling prices.

銷售價格。

Yes. I mean, I think there's been some, but it's basically been moderated. The concept for us is to make sure that we've got highly differentiated product with innovations that can have pricing power in the marketplace. And we haven't seen any degradation of any meaningful amount in our order book based on pricing.

是的。我的意思是，我認為有一些，但它基本上已經被緩和了。我們的理念是確保我們擁有高度差異化的產品，並具有在市場上具有定價能力的創新。而且我們還沒有看到基於定價的訂單簿中任何有意義的金額有任何下降。

The next question is coming from Mitch Kummetz with Seaport Research.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Research 的 Mitch Kummetz。

Just to follow up on the margins and freight in particular. So you're expecting gross margins to be down 180 to 210 bps year-over-year. How much of that is freight? And it looks like you expect year-over-year benefit in Q4. I know you're not looking [to give your] '23 guidance, but if ocean container freight rates or ocean container rates kind of hold where they are today, how much pickup could you possibly see next year?

只是為了跟進利潤和運費。因此，您預計毛利率將同比下降 180 至 210 個基點。其中有多少是運費？看起來您希望在第四季度獲得同比收益。我知道您不希望 [給您的] '23 指導，但如果海運集裝箱運費或海運集裝箱運費保持在今天的水平，明年您可能會看到多少提貨？

Well, I think maybe just to put it in perspective, Mitch, the way I would think about it is, through the first half of this year, ocean freight had about a 300 basis point impact on our gross margins. And then we'll see that step down in terms of the degree as an impact in the third and fourth quarter before it becomes a tailwind. So I think that's probably the best way of framing it. And obviously, as you're in the first part of the year, it may have a little bit more of a disproportionate impact. I wouldn't anticipate it quite being at 300 basis points in the third quarter. It will be in the -- decline a bit.

好吧，我想也許只是為了正確看待它，米奇，我的想法是，到今年上半年，海運對我們的毛利率產生了大約 300 個基點的影響。然後，我們將看到在第三和第四季度的影響程度下降，然後才成為順風。所以我認為這可能是構建它的最佳方式。顯然，當你在今年上半年時，它可能會產生更多不成比例的影響。我預計第三季度不會達到 300 個基點。它將在--下降一點。

Yes. Mitch -- I might just point out that even though we have a tailwind against last year's freight rates, ocean freight rates, they're still incredibly elevated based on our historical experience. And so it's important to understand that.

是的。米奇——我可能只是指出，儘管我們對去年的運費、海運運費有一定的推動作用，但根據我們的歷史經驗，它們仍然高得令人難以置信。所以理解這一點很重要。

Sure. And then Tim or Jim, you guys talked about now assuming a slightly more -- well, a more cautious stance over the balance of the year around cancellations, promotions, DTC. I guess, maybe 2 questions. One, is that really focused on the fourth quarter more than the third quarter? And two, as you think about your assumptions around those items, are you kind of assuming a normal environment? I mean last year would have been a better-than-normal environment along those metrics? So are you basically just sort of assuming this year is normal or are you assuming better or worse than that?

當然。然後是蒂姆或吉姆，你們現在談論的假設是稍微多一點——嗯，對取消、促銷、DTC 的年度平衡採取更加謹慎的立場。我想，也許是2個問題。一、是否真的比第三季度更關注第四季度？第二，當你考慮你對這些項目的假設時，你是在假設一個正常的環境嗎？我的意思是，按照這些指標，去年的環境會比正常情況好？所以你基本上只是假設今年是正常的，還是你假設比那更好或更差？

Last year was a much higher demand from the consumer and much less supply from all vendors, including ourselves. So this year, we have more supply. Who knows what the consumer is going to be looking at? So it's very likely that it has the propensity for promotional activity as retailers look to clear inventory. So it's hard to describe. And then when you throw the closures in China into the mix, it's just -- it makes it a difficult year to call normal. So we want to make sure that we're cautiously approaching the business. We have certainly the balance sheet to allow us to make the right decisions, not necessarily the most expedite ones, but we're managing the business in order to come through this at the end just as strong as we went into it.

去年，消費者的需求要高得多，而包括我們自己在內的所有供應商的供應要少得多。所以今年，我們有更多的供應。誰知道消費者會看什麼？因此，當零售商希望清理庫存時，它很可能具有促銷活動的傾向。所以很難描述。然後，當您將中國的關閉情況混入其中時，這只是-很難稱其為正常的一年。因此，我們要確保我們謹慎地處理業務。我們當然擁有資產負債表，可以讓我們做出正確的決定，不一定是最快速的決定，但我們正在管理業務，以便最終像我們進入它一樣強大地完成這個。

And then Mitch, typically within our wholesale business, we wouldn't anticipate to see significant cancellations until we get deeper into the quarter. As Tim touched on inventories as it relates to seasonal fall/winter merchandise is quite low. So retailers are going to have the need in the early part of the season to take those goods. So it can be until we get out to September, really October, November, where we'd see anything meaningful in the way of cancellations. And then the other way to think about how normalized we planned the business in the back half of the year, our D2C business has planned up a mid-single-digit percent growth combined between brick and mortar and online e-com globally. So that gives you a little bit of a sense. We grew at a low teen number through the first half of the year with Q2 coming down. So we planned it a little bit more in line with what we've seen in the second quarter.

然後米奇，通常在我們的批發業務中，在我們深入到本季度之前，我們預計不會看到大量取消。由於蒂姆談到了與季節性秋冬商品相關的庫存，所以庫存非常低。因此，零售商將需要在本季的早期階段接收這些商品。所以可能要等到 9 月，真正的 10 月，11 月，我們才會看到取消的任何有意義的事情。然後換一種方式來思考我們在今年下半年計劃業務的正常化程度，我們的 D2C 業務計劃在全球實體店和在線電子商務之間實現中個位數百分比的增長。所以這讓你有點感覺。隨著第二季度的下降，我們在今年上半年以較低的青少年人數增長。因此，我們計劃它更符合我們在第二季度看到的情況。

The next question is coming Paul Lejuez with Citigroup.

下一個問題是花旗集團的 Paul Lejuez。

Curious within the U.S. wholesale channel, if you can maybe talk about sales to your sporting goods, retail partners versus department stores versus others, how you're seeing the trends in each? And I think you mentioned seeing some cancellations. Just curious where you might be seeing those pop up out of those different channels. And I believe just secondly, you talked about high single digit, low double-digit price increases. Wondering if that's what you have [falling] through into the spring season as well. So when you talk about the spring order books being up, I'm curious how much of that is price versus units.

對美國批發渠道感到好奇，如果您可以談論對您的體育用品、零售合作夥伴與百貨商店與其他人的銷售情況，您如何看待每一種趨勢？我想你提到看到一些取消。只是好奇您可能會在哪裡看到那些從這些不同渠道中彈出的內容。而且我相信就在第二點，您談到了高個位數，低兩位數的價格上漲。想知道這是否也是你進入春季時所經歷的。因此，當您談到春季訂單增加時，我很好奇其中有多少是價格與單位的關係。

Well, the channels -- as you know, the company is quite broadly distributed in terms of its products. And so we've seen (inaudible) across all channels. I would say that the department store channel probably is growing the most rapidly among all the channels, but we had great business with our Internet retailers as well. I would say, maybe the slowest might be in the sporting goods channel. And then as it relates to spring orders, we're seeing solid improvement across really all the brands and categories but understanding that retailers are going to be leaving the season this year with a little bit more inventory than they otherwise have been in prior seasons.

嗯，渠道——如你所知，該公司的產品分佈相當廣泛。因此，我們已經在所有渠道中看到（聽不清）。我會說百貨渠道可能是所有渠道中增長最快的，但我們與互聯網零售商的業務也很好。我想說，也許最慢的可能是體育用品頻道。然後因為它與春季訂單有關，我們看到所有品牌和類別的實際改善，但了解零售商將在今年離開這個季節，庫存比前幾個季節要多一些。

Yes, as it relates to price versus unit, Paul. If you look at the second quarter as an example where we grew 2%, that's going to be -- units are going to be down a bit, knowing that our pricing for the spring season was up a mid-single-digit percentage.

是的，因為它涉及價格與單位，保羅。如果您以第二季度為例，我們增長了 2%，那將會是 - 單位會有所下降，因為我們知道我們在春季的價格上漲了個位數百分比。

And how about for the spring season? Is that seeing same dynamic pricing up, units down?

那麼春季呢？是否看到相同的動態定價上升，單位下降？

Looking at Spring '23? So my comment I just made was with regard to Spring '22. Spring '23, I think, it would be premature at this point to provide any details with regard to how we're thinking about rate of growth and mix between price versus units. We're certainly continuing to operate in inflationary environment. So there are further price increases that are contemplated in our Spring '23 order book.

看春天'23？所以我剛剛發表的評論是關於 22 年春季的。我認為，23 年春季，現在提供有關我們如何考慮增長率以及價格與單位之間的混合的任何細節還為時過早。我們肯定會繼續在通脹環境中運作。因此，我們的 Spring '23 訂單簿中預計價格會進一步上漲。

The next question is coming from Mauricio Serna with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的毛里西奧·塞爾納。

I just wanted to ask if you could elaborate a little bit more on your sales growth expectations by region in the second half of the year. And particularly in Europe, I was wondering if we should expect that kind of negative growth rate to continue in the second half. And maybe just elaborate also on China, how that will impact the Latin America and Asia Pacific business.

我只是想問一下您是否可以詳細說明您對下半年銷售增長的預期。特別是在歐洲，我想知道我們是否應該預期這種負增長率會在下半年繼續下去。也許還可以詳細說明中國，這將如何影響拉丁美洲和亞太地區的業務。

Well, I think as it relates to Europe specifically, our European direct business is growing. And as Tim touched on, it's quite healthy, and we'd anticipate that Europe continues to drive growth in the back half of the year. So essentially, what's driving the declines in our EMEA business when we look at the first half, it's the fact that we didn't ship or (inaudible) to Russia during the second quarter. So that's going to be the big factor there. And then I missed the second part of the question on...

嗯，我認為由於它與歐洲特別相關，我們的歐洲直接業務正在增長。正如蒂姆所說，它非常健康，我們預計歐洲將在今年下半年繼續推動增長。因此，從本質上講，當我們看上半年時，是什麼導致我們的 EMEA 業務下滑，這是因為我們在第二季度沒有向俄羅斯發貨或（聽不清）。所以這將是那裡的重要因素。然後我錯過了問題的第二部分......

You basically -- China, we expect that there will be continued shutdowns in certain geographies in China and whether or not we have business relationships or customers in those specific regions, we'll really detail how we do in China for the back half of the year. So we're being cautious in terms of how we're guiding in that geography. But as Jim said, we've got solid business in our direct business in Europe as well as in many of our EMEA regions, including Turkey and Israel, where we have solid business and good growth. It really is a Russia impact for this year.

你基本上 - 中國，我們預計中國某些地區將繼續關閉，無論我們在這些特定地區是否有業務關係或客戶，我們都會詳細說明我們在中國後半段的表現年。因此，就我們在該地區的指導方式而言，我們持謹慎態度。但正如吉姆所說，我們在歐洲的直接業務以及我們在土耳其和以色列等許多歐洲、中東和非洲地區的直接業務都有穩固的業務，我們在這些地區擁有穩固的業務和良好的增長。今年確實是對俄羅斯的影響。

We have Alex Perry with Bank of America.

我們有美國銀行的亞歷克斯·佩里。

Just first, I wanted to ask a little bit more in terms of what you're seeing from -- or what you're expecting from a promotional environment, especially with some mass retailers calling out loaded inventory levels in Apparel. Does that affect you at all? And what have you seen sort of the overall promotional environment come online yet? Or is that just what you're expecting given what you're seeing from the consumer?

首先，我想就您所看到的內容或您對促銷環境的期望多問一點，尤其是在一些大型零售商呼籲服裝庫存水平高的情況下。這對你有影響嗎？你見過什麼樣的整體促銷環境上線了嗎？或者，鑑於您從消費者那裡看到的，這正是您所期望的？

Yes. We had -- actually it's been modest promotional activity certainly in the U.S., where we have the most data around our customers' activities. It's been more modest in the first half. We're expecting because of the consumer sentiments that we're all reading about that there'll likely be more promotional activity as inventories in the channel become elevated. And so it's hard to understand or to know in advance which one of our customers have the ability to keep inventory longer, which ones have to liquidate, but we're -- our expectations are that the economic conditions will dictate a more promotional environment.

是的。我們有 - 實際上在美國肯定是適度的促銷活動，在那裡我們擁有關於客戶活動的最多數據。上半場比較低調。由於我們都在閱讀的消費者情緒，我們預計隨著渠道庫存的增加，可能會有更多的促銷活動。因此，很難理解或提前知道我們的哪些客戶有能力將庫存保持更長時間，哪些必須清算，但我們 - 我們的預期是經濟狀況將決定一個更具促銷性的環境。

And on the whole, Alex, when we look at our second quarter results and we monitor a high proportion of our U.S. customers and their promotion levels, and promotion levels were quite lean through the second quarter. So there hasn't been an overreaction to what's going on with the consumer, and likewise, can be said for our D2C business in which margins were really quite healthy through Q2. So the adjustments we've made in our outlook are really just in contemplation of the risks that we foresee with everything that we're seeing in the news.

總的來說，亞歷克斯，當我們查看第二季度的業績時，我們會監控很大比例的美國客戶及其促銷水平，而第二季度的促銷水平非常低。因此，對消費者的情況並沒有過度反應，同樣，我們的 D2C 業務可以說在第二季度的利潤率非常健康。因此，我們對前景所做的調整實際上只是在考慮我們在新聞中看到的一切所預見的風險。

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. And then my second question is, I just wanted to ask about what you're seeing in terms of product input cost pressures? Or -- and maybe just a little more color on how that would sort of flow through in terms of the gross margin guide?

是的，這很有意義。然後我的第二個問題是，我只是想問一下您在產品投入成本壓力方面看到了什麼？或者——也許只是在毛利率指南方面如何流動的更多顏色？

Certainly. Well, in our analysis, about half of our product input costs are a function of the [collusion] in the ocean freight carrier network. The balance is a function of factory disruptions and oil commodity impact on the products that we make and the components that we use. So I would say, it's a mid-single digit to just slightly north of that impact on costs. While we're able to pass those on, we'll see what happens in terms of the ocean freight carriers, our charges and then what happens with oil over the next several years.

當然。好吧，在我們的分析中，我們大約一半的產品投入成本是海運承運人網絡中[串通]的功能。平衡是工廠中斷和石油商品對我們製造的產品和我們使用的組件的影響的函數。所以我想說，這是一個中個位數，略高於對成本的影響。雖然我們能夠傳遞這些信息，但我們將看看海運承運人、我們的收費以及未來幾年石油會發生什麼情況。

I would now like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉回給管理層以結束髮言。

All right. Well, thank you for listening in. We're really excited about the opportunity to show you the various activities our brands have planned for the future in our September 22 Analyst Day. We hope that you'll be able to come and see those things in person and look forward to sharing that with you.

好的。好的，感謝您的收聽。我們很高興有機會在 9 月 22 日的分析師日向您展示我們品牌為未來計劃的各種活動。我們希望您能夠親眼看到這些東西，並期待與您分享。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。你可以在這個時候斷開你的電話線，並有一個美好的一天。感謝您的參與。