加拿大自然資源公司 (CNQ) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. We would like to welcome everyone to Canadian Natural's 2024 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call is being recorded today, May 2, 2024, at 7 a.m. Mountain Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Lance Casson, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安.我們歡迎大家參加 Canadian Natural 2024 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話錄音於山區時間今天（2024 年 5 月 2 日）上午 7 點進行。現在我想將會議轉交給今天電話會議的主持人、投資者關係經理蘭斯卡森 (Lance Casson)。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Canadian Natural's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you of our forward-looking statements, and it should be noted that in our reporting disclosures everything is in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated, and we report reserves and production before royalties.

大家早安，感謝您參加 Canadian Natural 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我想提醒您注意我們的前瞻性陳述，應該注意的是，在我們的報告披露中，除非另有說明，所有內容均以加元為單位，並且我們在特許權使用費之前報告儲量和產量。

Additionally, I would suggest to review our comments on non-GAAP disclosures in our financial statements. Speaking on today's call will be Scott Stauth, our President; and Mark Stainthorpe, our Chief Financial Officer. Scott will first provide highlights on our safe, reliable and world-class operations and help through our defined plan, effective efficient operations and strong execution. We're targeting a robust production in the second half of 2024.

此外，我建議審查我們對財務報表中非公認會計原則揭露的評論。我們的總統斯科特·斯托斯 (Scott Stauth) 將在今天的電話會議上發言。和我們的財務長馬克斯坦索普。斯科特將首先重點介紹我們安全、可靠和世界一流的運營，並幫助我們制定明確的計劃、有效的高效運營和強有力的執行力。我們的目標是在 2024 年下半年實現強勁生產。

Mark will then summarize our financial results, including strong shareholder returns. To close, Scott will summarize prior to opening up the line for questions. With that, over to you, Scott.

然後馬克將總結我們的財務業績，包括強勁的股東回報。最後，斯科特將在開放提問之前進行總結。好了，就交給你了，史考特。

Thank you, Lance, and good morning, everyone. Canadian Natural has been in operation for 35 years and has always been focused on returns on capital and creating value for shareholders. 2024 marks an important milestone as we are delivering 100% of free cash flow to shareholders this year. And with strong crude oil strip pricing for the remainder of the year, we are targeting to generate significant free cash flow.

謝謝你，蘭斯，大家早安。 Canadian Natural已營運35年，始終專注於資本回報和為股東創造價值。 2024 年是一個重要的里程碑，因為我們今年將向股東提供 100% 的自由現金流。由於今年剩餘時間原油帶鋼定價強勁，我們的目標是產生大量自由現金流。

With our large diverse assets, we have plenty of growth opportunities to continue to create long-term shareholder value and have the flexibility to manage the pace and timing of these development opportunities. As we outlined with our 2024 budget, we have significant strategically weighted development in the first half of the year to our longer-cycle assets, primarily on thermal pad and back-end weighted with our conventional growth development, as this aligns with increased market access as well as improved forward strip pricing.

憑藉我們龐大的多元化資產，我們擁有大量的成長機會來繼續創造長期股東價值，並能夠靈活地管理這些發展機會的節奏和時機。正如我們在2024 年預算中所概述的那樣，我們在上半年對較長週期的資產進行了重大的戰略加權開發，主要是導熱墊和後端，並以我們的傳統增長開發為重點，因為這與增加市場准入一致以及改進的遠期帶鋼定價。

As a result, we are targeting to finish the year with strong exit rates as a conventional more shorter cycle growth activity ramps up in the second half of the year. We continue to find ways to be more effective and efficient, including optimizing our turnaround schedule. For example, we are well prepared for the upcoming turnaround at Horizon, where we will be tying in the final components of the reliability enhancement project, which sets us up for strong utilization and production in the second half of the year and add 28,000 barrels a day in 2025 when we skip a turnaround.

因此，我們的目標是在今年年底以強勁的退出率，因為傳統的更短週期的成長活動將在下半年增加。我們不斷尋找更有效和更有效率的方法，包括優化我們的周轉時間表。例如，我們為Horizo​​​​n 即將到來的周轉做好了充分準備，我們將在該專案中加入可靠性增強專案的最終組件，這將使我們在今年下半年實現強勁的利用率和生產，並每年增加28,000 桶。

Through early turnaround work in Q1 during the unplanned maintenance activities, we reduced the outage duration of the plant due to Horizon turnaround from -- to 28 from 30 days. Additionally, we have optimized the commissioning schedule of the reliability enhancement project, which will be brought online in June following the turnaround. We have a debottleneck project at the Scotford Upgrader that will be implemented during the turnaround this fall, which will add approximately 5,600 barrels per day net to Canadian Natural.

透過第一季計畫外維護活動期間的早期週轉工作，我們將因 Horizo​​n 週轉而導致的工廠停駛時間從 30 天減少到 28 天。此外，我們也優化了可靠性增強專案的調試時間表，該專案將於6月檢修後上線。我們在 Scotford Upgrader 有一個去瓶頸項目，該項目將在今年秋季的檢修期間實施，這將為 Canadian Natural 每天淨增產約 5,600 桶。

It's the small incremental movements that add up and create additional value for our shareholders, as these targeted improvements will help drive stronger production in the second half of this year. Longer term, we have our other Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading optimization projects, including the Naphtha Recovery treatment project, which is targeted to add approximately 6,300 barrels per day late to 2027.

正是這些微小的增量動作累積起來，為我們的股東創造了額外的價值，因為這些有針對性的改進將有助於推動今年下半年更強勁的生產。從長遠來看，我們還有其他油砂開採和升級優化項目，包括石腦油回收處理項目，目標是到 2027 年末每天增加約 6,300 桶。

And beyond that, combining our IPEP technology with Paraffinic Froth Treatment has the potential to add approximately 195,000 barrels per day of additional annual bitumen production while improving environmental performance. Along with growth, we have a defined path to reduce our environmental footprint and continue delivering sustainable, responsible produce energy that the world needs. We are committed to supporting Canada's and Alberta's climate goals and have robust environmental targets, including zero greenhouse gas emissions in the oil sands by 2050.

除此之外，將我們的 IPEP 技術與石蠟泡沫處理相結合，每年可增加約 195,000 桶瀝青年產量，同時改善環境績效。隨著成長，我們有明確的道路來減少我們的環境足跡，並繼續提供世界所需的可持續、負責任的生產能源。我們致力於支持加拿大和艾伯塔省的氣候目標，並制定了穩健的環境目標，包括在 2050 年實現油砂溫室氣體零排放。

We are uniquely positioned with diverse long-life, low-decline assets, which are ideal for applying greenhouse gas reduction technologies and providing industry-leading environmental performance. It is important to continue working together with the Canadian and Alberta governments to make sure the Pathways Alliance is a transformative industry collaboration and achieve meaningful greenhouse gas reductions in Canada.

我們擁有獨特的優勢，擁有多樣化的長壽命、低損耗資產，這些資產是應用溫室氣體減排技術和提供領先業界的環境績效的理想選擇。繼續與加拿大和艾伯塔省政府合作非常重要，以確保 Pathways Alliance 成為一個變革性的產業合作，並在加拿大實現有意義的溫室氣體減排。

We believe Canadian Energy is one of the most responsibly produced sources of energy in the world and should be the preferred energy choice. I will now run through our Q1 operational results. Total production in Q1 averaged approximately 1.33 million BOEs per day, including total liquid production of approximately 976,000 barrels per day and natural gas production of approximately 2.15 Bcf per day.

我們相信加拿大能源是世界上生產最負責任的能源之一，應該成為首選能源選擇。我現在將概述我們第一季的營運結果。第一季的總產量平均約為每天 133 萬桶油當量，其中液體總產量約為每天 976,000 桶，天然氣產量約為每天 2.15 Bcf。

On the conventional side of the business, primary heavy oil production averaged approximately 78,400 barrels per day in the quarter, which is comparable to production volumes in the first quarter of 2023, reflecting strong results from our multilateral wells in the Mannville and Clearwater fairways, which offsets natural field declines.

在常規業務方面，本季原生重油產量平均約為每天 78,400 桶，與 2023 年第一季的產量相當，反映出我們在曼維爾和克利爾沃特航道的多邊井的強勁業績，抵消自然場的下降。

Primary heavy oil operating costs averaged $19.16 in the first quarter, which is down 11% from the first quarter of 2023, reflecting lower energy costs. Our Pelican production averaged just over 45,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, which is down 6% from first quarter of '23, reflecting low natural field declines from this long-life asset. Operating costs at Pelican were $9.75 a barrel in the first quarter comparable with costs in the first quarter of 2023.

第一季原生重油營運成本平均為 19.16 美元，較 2023 年第一季下降 11%，反映出能源成本下降。我們的 Pelican 第一季平均產量略高於 45,000 桶/日，比 2023 年第一季下降了 6%，反映出這一長壽命資產的自然油田產量下降幅度較小。 Pelican 第一季的營運成本為每桶 9.75 美元，與 2023 年第一季的成本相當。

North American crude oil and natural gas production averaged approximately 114,000 barrels a day in the first quarter, which is up 5% from the first quarter of '23. Operating costs in our light crude oil and NGLs operations averaged $15.25 in the first quarter, a decrease of 18% compared to the first quarter of 2023, reflecting higher production and lower energy costs. North American natural gas production averaged 2.14 Bcf during the first quarter, which is comparable to the first quarter of 2023.

第一季北美原油和天然氣產量平均約為每天11.4萬桶，比2023年第一季成長5%。第一季輕原油和液化天然氣業務的營運成本平均為 15.25 美元，比 2023 年第一季下降 18%，反映出產量增加和能源成本降低。第一季北美天然氣產量平均為 2.14 Bcf，與 2023 年第一季相當。

Operating costs on our North American natural gas averaged $1.27 Mcf in the first quarter which is down 11% compared to the first quarter of 2023, primarily related to lower energy costs. In our thermal in situ operations, we achieved strong thermal production in the first quarter, averaging just over 268,000 barrels per day. This is up 10% from the first quarter of 2023 as a result of strong execution on CSS and SAGD pad developments during 2023. First quarter thermal in situ operating costs averaged $14.05 a barrel, which is down 12% compared to the first quarter of 2023, primarily reflecting higher production volumes and lower energy costs.

第一季北美天然氣的營運成本平均為 1.27 立方英尺，比 2023 年第一季下降 11%，這主要與能源成本下降有關。在我們的現場熱力作業中，我們在第一季實現了強勁的熱力產量，平均每天產量略高於 268,000 桶。由於2023 年CSS 和SAGD 平台開發的強勁執行，這一數字比2023 年第一季度增長了10%。 % ，主要反映了更高的產量和更低的能源成本。

In April, we successfully completed the planned turnaround at Jackfish a few days ahead of schedule, and we have upcoming turnarounds at Kirby North in May of '24. Due to the early completion of the turn on Jackfish, the total impact to Q2 2024 average production is now targeted to be approximately 15,300 barrels per day, an improvement of 1,800 barrels per day from the previous impact target of 17,100 barrels per day.

4 月份，我們提前幾天成功完成了 Jackfish 的計劃週轉，並且我們即將在 2024 年 5 月在 Kirby North 進行週轉。由於Jackfish的改造提前完成，對2024年第二季平均產量的總影響目前目標為約15,300桶/日，比之前的影響目標17,100桶/日提高了1,800桶/日。

At Primrose, we are currently drilling 2 CSS pads, which are targeted to come on production in Q2 of 2025. We're also drilling a SAGD pad at Wolf Lake, which is targeted to come on production in Q1 of 2025. At Jackfish, we drilled 2 SAGD pads in 2023, the first of which ramped up to its full production capacity in April of this year, which is ahead of budget. The second pad is targeted to ramp up the full production capacity in Q4 of 2024. This will support continued high utilization rates at the Jackfish facilities.

在 Primrose，我們目前正在鑽探 2 個 CSS 墊，計劃於 2025 年第二季度投產。個SAGD 平台，其中第一個平台已於今年4 月達到滿載生產，超出了預算。第二個基地的目標是在 2024 年第四季全面提高產能。

Additionally, we are targeting to drill 1 SAGD pad at Jackfish in the second half of 2024, with production from this pad targeted to come on in Q3 of 2025. The commercial scale solvent SAGD pad development at Kirby North is approximately 90% complete, and we are targeting to begin solvent injection in July of 2024. The use of solvents is targeted to reduce our SORs and our greenhouse gas emissions intensities by 40% to 50%.

此外，我們的目標是於 2024 年下半年在 Jackfish 鑽探 1 個 SAGD 墊，該墊的生產預計於 2025 年第三季開始。目標是在2024 年7 月開始溶劑注入。

In our Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading operations, the first quarter SCO production averaged just over 445,000 barrels per day, 45,000 barrels per day lower than our targeted -- target for the first quarter, reflecting both planned and unplanned maintenance activities, including the advancement of the Scotford Upgrader planned turnaround from March to April -- to March from April.

在我們的油砂開採和升級業務中，第一季 SCO 產量平均略高於每天 445,000 桶，比我們第一季的目標低 45,000 桶，反映了計劃內和計劃外的維護活動，包括推進Scotford Upgrader計劃從3 月到4 月進行週轉——從4 月到3 月。

Through improved turnaround and commissioning scheduling as well as optimization efforts, we are targeting to recover these daily production volumes in the last 3 quarters of the year. Our operating costs in our Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading assets are top tier, averaging $24.85 a barrel in the first quarter comparable with the first quarter of 2023. Canadian Natural has a proven effective capital allocation strategy. We have a balance of near-, medium- and long-term growth opportunities, as I mentioned at the beginning of my call, not only on our Oil Sands Mining assets but across our entire asset base.

透過改進週轉和調試計劃以及優化工作，我們的目標是在今年最後三個季度恢復這些日產量。我們的油砂開採和升級資產的營運成本是一流的，第一季平均為每桶 24.85 美元，與 2023 年第一季相當。正如我在電話會議開始時提到的那樣，我們不僅在我們的油砂礦業資產上，而且在我們的整個資產基礎上都擁有平衡的近期、中期和長期成長機會。

And with the strategic weighting of our capital program this year to add growth in the second half of the year and exit 2024 with strong rates, we are targeting strong free cash flow in the last 9 months of this year. Now I will turn it over to Mark for our financial review.

今年我們資本計畫的策略重點是在下半年增加成長並以強勁的利率退出 2024 年，我們的目標是在今年最後 9 個月實現強勁的自由現金流。現在我將把它交給馬克進行我們的財務審查。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter of 2024, we generated solid financial results with adjusted funds flow of $3.1 billion and adjusted net earnings from operations of $1.5 billion. This drove significant returns to shareholders in the quarter, totaling $1.7 billion, with $1.1 billion in dividends and $600 million in share buybacks through our NCIB program. As we reached net debt of $10 billion at the end of 2023, we are targeting 100% of free cash flow to shareholders in 2024 as per our free cash flow allocation policy. And we'll continue to manage the allocation on a forward-looking annual basis.

謝謝斯科特，大家早安。 2024 年第一季度，我們取得了穩健的財務業績，調整後資金流量為 31 億美元，調整後營運淨利為 15 億美元。這為本季股東帶來了豐厚的回報，總計 17 億美元，其中包括 11 億美元的股息以及透過我們的 NCIB 計劃進行的 6 億美元的股票回購。由於我們的淨債務在 2023 年底達到 100 億美元，因此根據我們的自由現金流分配政策，我們的目標是在 2024 年將 100% 的自由現金流流向股東。我們將繼續以前瞻性的年度方式管理分配。

Our commitment to increasing shareholder returns is evident in our sustainable and growing quarterly dividend, which was previously increased to $1.05 per share from $1 per share in March 2024, marking 2024 as the 24th consecutive year of dividend increases. Subsequent to quarter end, the Board has declared a quarterly dividend of $1.05 per share payable on July 5, 2024. Our financial position is very strong with debt to EBITDA at 0.6x at the end of Q1 '24, and we continue to maintain strong liquidity. Including revolving bank lines, cash and short-term investments, liquidity at the end of the quarter was approximately $6.8 billion.

我們對提高股東回報的承諾體現在我們可持續且不斷增長的季度股息中，該股息此前從 2024 年 3 月的每股 1 美元增至每股 1.05 美元，標誌著 2024 年股息連續 24 年增加。季度末後，董事會宣布將於 2024 年 7 月 5 日支付每股 1.05 美元的季度股息。性。包括循環銀行額度、現金和短期投資在內，本季末的流動性約為 68 億美元。

As Scott has already laid out, when you combine our strategic plan in 2024, our continuous improvement initiatives and optimized production with strong commodity prices, specifically for WCS and high-value SCO, we are targeting significant free cash flow through the remainder of the year. This resulted increasing shareholder returns through our 100% of free cash flow allocation policy. With that, I'll turn it back to you, Scott, for some final comments.

正如斯科特已經指出的那樣，當你將我們的2024 年戰略計劃、我們的持續改進計劃和優化生產與強勁的商品價格（特別是WCS 和高價值SCO）結合起來時，我們的目標是在今年剩餘時間內實現大量自由現金流。透過我們 100% 的自由現金流分配政策，股東回報不斷增加。至此，我會將其轉回給您，斯科特，請您發表最後的評論。

Thanks, Mark. In summary, here at Canadian Natural, our culture of continuous improvement and ownership alignment with shareholders drives our team to create significant value across all areas of the company. Our effective and efficient operations combined with flexible capital allocation drives strong returns on capital and maximizes value for our shareholders. With that, I will turn it over for questions.

謝謝，馬克。總之，在 Canadian Natural，我們持續改善並與股東保持所有權一致的文化推動我們的團隊在公司的所有領域創造顯著的價值。我們有效、高效的營運與靈活的資本配置相結合，可帶來強勁的資本回報，並為股東實現價值最大化。說到這裡，我將把它轉過來供大家提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Menno Hulshof from TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Menno Hulshof。

I'll start with a question on the 55,000 barrels per day of additional commitments that you made on Flanagan South within the quarter. Can you elaborate on how that became available in the terms if you're willing to go there, and I'm guessing you're not? And then I guess the follow-up to that is, what's the longer-term vision for building a U.S. Gulf Coast access? And would you consider building out export capability like some of -- some other companies have done?

我將首先詢問貴公司在本季度內對弗拉納根南 (Flanagan South) 做出的每天 55,000 桶額外承諾的問題。如果您願意去那裡，但我猜您不願意，您能否詳細說明如何在條款中實現這一點？然後我想接下來的問題是，建造美國墨西哥灣沿岸通道的長期願景是什麼？您是否會考慮像其他一些公司那樣建立出口能力？

Good question, and thanks for that. Yes, the opportunity on Flanagan to gain the additional 55,000 barrels just came through an open season process. We participated in that process, yes. And you're right, I won't be able to disclose the terms, but we just view it as a good deal. It allows us the opportunity to go to expand in markets.

好問題，謝謝。是的，Flanagan 獲得額外 55,000 桶石油的機會剛剛通過開放季節過程而來。是的，我們參與了這個過程。你是對的，我無法透露這些條款，但我們只是認為這是一筆不錯的交易。它使我們有機會去拓展市場。

And then from that, your additional question just in terms of further expansions, I think we'd look towards other expansion opportunities on the Mainline system, potentially on the TMX system, which we think over time is going to create optional additional egress opportunities.

然後，您提出的關於進一步擴展的附加問題，我認為我們會在主線系統上尋找其他擴展機會，可能在 TMX 系統上，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這將創造可選的額外出口機會。

Terrific. And then my second question relates to the shift from natural gas activity into heavy into year-end. You talked about the heavy well additions. But can you quantify how much things are getting dialed back on the natural gas side of things? And I'm thinking along the lines of locations, rigs and capital.

了不起。我的第二個問題涉及天然氣活動從年底轉向重度活動。您談到了重型井的添加。但你能量化天然氣的影響有多少嗎？我正在考慮地點、鑽孔機和資本。

Yes. On the oil side, it's a reduction of about half a dozen gas wells and a pickup of about 12 multilateral wells. So it's about neutral on the capital piece. So we looked at it as a good opportunity to enhance some of the netbacks we're going to be seeing in the second half of the year on our oil side.

是的。在石油方面，減少了約 6 口氣井，增加了約 12 口多分支井。所以在資本方面它是中性的。因此，我們認為這是一個很好的機會，可以增強我們將在今年下半年看到的石油方面的一些淨回報。

Your next question is from Greg Pardy from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Greg Pardy。

Really two very different questions. But Scott, I continue to be kind of intrigued on what you're doing with solvents. And I'm wondering if you could perhaps frame the commercial scale project you have now, how are you -- a, I don't really know what the size of it is ultimately going to look like. But is it possible for you to speak maybe to what capital efficiency and/or operating costs might look like with that project? Or is that really to come?

確實是兩個截然不同的問題。但是斯科特，我仍然對你用溶劑所做的事情感興趣。我想知道你是否可以建立你現在擁有的商業規模項目，你怎麼樣——a，我真的不知道它的規模最終會是什麼樣子。但您是否可以談談該專案的資本效率和/或營運成本？或者這真的會發生嗎？

Yes, great, good question. And for sure, some of that is still to come. As this project is set up on, I'll say, a pad scale basis, we call it a commercial project because effectively, we would be able to assimilate that on future pads, as we go forward. So we constructed the injection facilities and the recovery facilities. And really once we start injecting solvent here in July, we're going to monitor the process. We want to make sure we understand how well the recoveries are of the solvent. It's a key component in terms of the economics.

是的，很好，很好的問題。當然，其中一些仍有待實現。我想說，由於這個項目是建立在焊盤規模的基礎上的，我們稱之為商業項目，因為隨著我們的前進，我們將能夠有效地將其吸收到未來的焊盤上。因此我們建造了注入設施和回收設施。事實上，一旦我們七月開始在這裡注入溶劑，我們就會監控整個過程。我們希望確保了解溶劑的回收率。就經濟學而言，它是一個關鍵組成部分。

And we want to ensure that we give enough run time to fully understand the cycle from a solvent perspective. But essentially, what it does allow you to do, as I mentioned before, is reduced the SORs by roughly half as well as the greenhouse gas emissions by roughly half. And we can scale it up as we add more pads going forward in the future in our SAGD operations.

我們希望確保提供足夠的運行時間，以便從溶劑的角度充分理解循環。但本質上，正如我之前提到的，它確實可以將 SOR 減少大約一半，並將溫室氣體排放量減少約一半。當我們未來在 SAGD 操作中添加更多焊盤時，我們可以擴大規模。

Okay. Okay. Terrific. Yes, it will be good to follow up with that, I guess, later in the year end, I guess even into next year. And then the second one, obviously, TMX is in focus. Could you maybe just comment on how you're -- well, to the extent you want to, just on how you're marketing will look, whether you've already secured tankers? I mean, I'd be very interested as to whether those are destined for California or there's going to Asia or what have you? There was some press sounding suggesting limitations and pilots and so forth in the area, but just any color there would be great.

好的。好的。了不起。是的，我想，在年底晚些時候，甚至明年，跟進這一點會很好。然後第二個，顯然，TMX 是焦點。您能否只評論一下您的行銷方式，以及您是否已經獲得了油輪？我的意思是，我很想知道這些是運往加州還是運往亞洲，或者你們有什麼？有一些媒體暗示該地區存在限制和試點等問題，但任何顏色都很棒。

Sure. Yes, it's a good question, Greg. And so we do have a mixture of both land-based sales and marine sales. We'll continue to develop those marine sales. We have secured some marine sales so far. We'll continue to evolve that market as we go forward here. But really, it's a bit of a balance of both land and marine side. And some of that, Greg, as you pointed out, may end up going marine side still on to the West Coast or it could move to Asian markets.

當然。是的，這是個好問題，格雷格。因此，我們確實混合了陸上銷售和海上銷售。我們將繼續發展這些船舶銷售。到目前為止，我們已經獲得了一些海運銷售。隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續發展這個市場。但實際上，這是陸地和海洋方面的平衡。正如您所指出的，格雷格（Greg）最終可能會在西海岸進行海運，或者可能會轉移到亞洲市場。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question is from Dennis Fong from CIBC World Market.

（操作員說明） 您的下一個問題來自 CIBC World Market 的 Dennis Fong。

The first one is maybe just following along with Greg's question just on solvents, but more specifically at Primrose. When I take a look at facility capacity, there is an abundance of oil handling capacity, but the limitation may be a little bit more on the steam side. I know you've an ongoing pilot in the region. At what point would you feel more comfortable providing a broader deployment to solvent within the region? And what do you view as being the potential upside from a productivity side for Primrose and Wolf Lake?

第一個可能只是跟隨格雷格關於溶劑的問題，但更具體地說是在 Primrose。當我查看設施容量時，石油處理能力充足，但蒸汽方面的限制可能更多。我知道你們在該地區正在進行試點。什麼時候您會更願意在該地區提供更廣泛的解決方案部署？您認為 Primrose 和 Wolf Lake 在生產力方面的潛在優勢是什麼？

Yes, good question, Dennis. And we're going to be able to leverage some of the learnings even from our SAGD commercial solvent project that we're doing in Kirby North. We leverage that towards understanding the processability on the solid side at Primrose. And yes, as you know, there's certainly steam limit constraints on the cyclic side. I think we just want to make sure that we've fully understood the pilot results. They do look good on the steam flood.

是的，好問題，丹尼斯。我們將能夠利用我們在柯比北開展的 SAGD 商業溶劑計畫中學到的一些知識。我們利用這一點來了解 Primrose 固體方面的可加工性。是的，如您所知，循環方面肯定存在蒸汽限制限制。我認為我們只是想確保我們完全理解試點結果。它們在蒸汽洪水中看起來確實不錯。

I would say, at this time, we just want to make sure we're focused on the SAGD solvent side of things. We'll continue to run this pilot at Primrose. We'll continue to add pads at Primrose. And we would look at it as an opportunity for sure. It's going to lag behind the SAGD side a bit though, Dennis, just in terms of really where we believe our focus should be.

我想說，此時，我們只想確保我們專注於 SAGD 溶劑方面。我們將繼續在 Primrose 進行該試點。我們將繼續在 Primrose 添加襯墊。我們肯定會將其視為一個機會。不過，丹尼斯，就我們認為我們的重點應該在哪裡而言，它會稍微落後於 SAGD 方面。

Great. I appreciate that color. Maybe switching gears towards the mining side of things. You've moved forward with -- or you're now completing the more recent kind of strategic capital deployment for Horizon, and you've kind of talked towards kind of this medium opportunity in terms of the [Naphtha] Recovery Unit. And I know you're in the middle of the IPEP and kind of scale up opportunity here as well.

偉大的。我很欣賞那種顏色。也許會轉向採礦方面。您已經取得了進展，或者您現在正在完成 Horizo​​​​n 的最新戰略資本部署，並且您已經談到了 [石腦油] 回收裝置方面的這種中等機會。我知道您正處於 IPEP 的中間，並且這裡也有擴大規模的機會。

At what point would you feel more comfortable moving forward with kind of the longer-term potential expansions around Horizon? We do have a little bit more egress, but what are some of the other, we'll call it, key metrics or items that you're looking forward to gain greater confidence in maybe making a decision around that project?

什麼時候你會覺得更願意繼續圍繞 Horizo​​​​n 進行長期潛在的擴張？我們確實有更多的出口，但是您希望在圍繞該專案做出決策時獲得更大信心的其他一些（我們稱之為關鍵指標或專案）是什麼？

Yes. So a couple of things with that, Dennis. Our teams have been working on expansion opportunities for the long term. We're looking in and around that 195,000 barrels a day opportunity. What's key to all of it is two fronts. One is we need to ensure that we have a carbon policy in place. And with that, we're looking towards the Pathways project and having the alignment on a fiscal policy that works for the Pathways company in collaboration with Alberta and the Canadian government.

是的。丹尼斯，有幾件事。我們的團隊一直致力於尋找長期的擴張機會。我們正在尋找每天 195,000 桶的機會。所有這一切的關鍵是兩個方面。一是我們需要確保制定碳政策。因此，我們正在關注 Pathways 項目，並與艾伯塔省和加拿大政府合作，協調適用於 Pathways 公司的財政政策。

So that fiscal policy is absolutely key for us to be able to move any additional expansion volumes forward. And also what's important in terms of that would be securing and working on enhancing egress capacity as well out of the basin.

因此，財政政策絕對是我們能夠推動任何額外擴張的關鍵。此外，重要的是確保並努力提高流域外的出口能力。

Your next question is from Mike Dunn from Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mike Dunn。

Just following up on that on the longer-term expansions at Horizon. Perhaps I've missed it previously, but looking back to your prior disclosures, is this the first time you've outlined 195,000 barrels a day as the potential expansion at Horizon from PFT and IPEP? I believe the last number you guys were giving for a while anyway was 75,000. So just wondering what's changed there and whether or not to move forward with such an expansion, you'd be just using your Horizon barrels or some of the AOSP leases furthermore?

只是跟進 Horizo​​​​n 的長期擴張。也許我之前錯過了，但回顧一下您之前的披露，這是您第一次概述每天 195,000 桶作為 Horizo​​​​n 潛在的 PFT 和 IPEP 擴張嗎？我相信你們最近給的最後一個數字是 75,000。因此，只是想知道那裡發生了什麼變化以及是否繼續進行這樣的擴張，您只會使用您的 Horizo​​​​n 桶或進一步的一些 AOSP 租賃嗎？

So your research is 100% correct, Mike. And this is the first time we talked about the 195,000. Previously, it was 75,000. Really, what's evolved out of this is the teams continue to work through this is the scalability side of it and working with -- through engineering enhancements on the IPEP project for extraction and just increasing the sizability of the Froth Treatment. That's what's led us towards the 195,000 barrels a day. And yes, it's primarily related to the Horizon operations piece of it there. So yes...

所以你的研究是 100%正確的，麥克。這是我們第一次談論 195,000。此前，該數字為 75,000。事實上，由此演變而來的是團隊繼續致力於解決可擴展性方面的問題，並透過 IPEP 專案的工程增強進行提取，並只是增加泡沫處理的規模。這就是我們達到每天 195,000 桶的原因。是的，它主要與地平線運營部分相關。所以是的...

(Operator Instructions) Your next question is from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Neil Mehta。

My first question is just on the natural gas environment. Obviously, it's very soft right now in Western Canada and throughout North America. But I just love your perspective as you think about the natural gas side of the portfolio, recognizing that you're also a large consumer of it. But how do you see local prices playing out over time, especially as we work through the start-up of LNG Canada, which would hopefully improve local netbacks?

我的第一個問題是關於天然氣環境的。顯然，目前加拿大西部和整個北美的氣候非常疲軟。但我很喜歡你對投資組合中天然氣的看法，並認識到你也是天然氣的大消費者。但是，您如何看待當地價格隨著時間的推移而變化，特別是當我們致力於加拿大液化天然氣公司的啟動時，這有望改善當地的淨收益？

Yes, you bet. Great question. So as you pointed out, we are a large consumer of natural gas in our Oil Sands operation. So we've got about 1/3 of it AECO pricing, a 1/3 export and about 1/3 is for our Oil Sands operations. In terms of looking forward on the price side of things, of course, yes, with LNG Canada coming online, we're seeing strip movements in the $3 range. And I think what's also important to remember here as well is that a lot of the economics are on the Montney side, driven by liquids production.

是的，你敢打賭。很好的問題。正如您所指出的，我們的油砂業務是天然氣的大量消耗者。因此，我們大約有 1/3 的 AECO 定價，1/3 出口，大約 1/3 用於我們的油砂業務。就價格方面的前景而言，當然，是的，隨著加拿大液化天然氣公司的上線，我們看到帶鋼價格波動在 3 美元範圍內。我認為這裡同樣重要的是要記住，很多經濟都在蒙尼方面，由液體生產驅動。

So that carries the strong most weight in terms of the economics there. So we do see price improvements as LNG Canada goes forward, and we'll look to capitalize on those opportunities as much as we possibly can with our balanced portfolio, ensuring that we are directing our capital towards the highest return projects.

因此，就那裡的經濟而言，這具有最重要的影響力。因此，隨著加拿大液化天然氣公司的發展，我們確實看到價格有所改善，我們將透過平衡的投資組合盡可能地利用這些機會，確保我們將資金用於回報率最高的項目。

And then (inaudible) over the last 10 years has been systematically driving down your cost structure. And the question we often get asked is what's the low-hanging fruit at this point? I just love your perspective as you guys think about the next couple of years, what are structural cost reductions that you still see within the business? And can you help bucket them for us?

然後（聽不清楚）在過去 10 年裡一直在系統性地降低成本結構。我們常被問到的問題是，目前最容易實現的目標是什麼？我很喜歡你們在思考未來幾年時的觀點，你們在企業中仍然看到了哪些結構性成本削減？你能幫我們把它們裝桶嗎？

I think I would just say in general that for the most part, the cost reduction opportunities are going to come forward simply through our continuous improvement plans that we put in place with our teams. We challenge our teams to bring forward ideas, concepts and execute on those concepts on an annual basis, and we continue to do that year-over-year. And so really, I think that's all we've always looked at doing our business. It's making sure that we're focused on continuous improvement piece.

我想我只想說，在大多數情況下，降低成本的機會將透過我們與團隊制定的持續改進計劃來實現。我們要求我們的團隊每年提出想法、概念並執行這些概念，我們每年都會繼續這樣做。事實上，我認為這就是我們在開展業務時一直關注的重點。它確保我們專注於持續改進。

You saw over time what we were able to achieve at Horizon with cost reduction running up into 2019. And so it's that same type of mentality across all of our business assets, whether it's on the natural gas side, heavy oil side, oil sands mining and thermal. We carry that concept to continuous improvement through. So I'm confident our teams are going to be able to continue to dig through and find opportunities to both decrease the cost, and optimize production was obviously helps the cost per barrel as well.

隨著時間的推移，您看到了Horizo​​​​n 在2019 年之前透過降低成本所取得的成就。方面和熱量。我們將這一理念貫徹到持續改進中。因此，我相信我們的團隊將能夠繼續挖掘並找到降低成本的機會，而優化生產顯然也有助於降低每桶成本。

Are there any specific initiatives you're willing to speak to at this point? Or we'll see them as they come?

目前您願意談論任何具體舉措嗎？或者我們會在他們到來時看到他們？

I think we'll see them as we come. I mean, if you think about the vastness of our operations and all the teams that we have working on in these areas, there is significant amount of work activity that they're looking at for continuous improvement. But I would say that when it gets down to the [ground or low] over the teams, they're small incremental cost savings opportunities. But of course, they all add up. We have our teams focused on saving dollars everywhere in operation. So it adds up everywhere.

我想我們來的時候就會看到他們。我的意思是，如果你考慮我們的業務範圍以及我們在這些領域工作的所有團隊，你會發現他們正在尋求大量的工作活動來持續改進。但我想說，當它深入到團隊的[地面或低點]時，它們是小的增量成本節省機會。但當然，它們都會加起來。我們的團隊專注於在營運過程中隨時隨地節省資金。所以它無所不在。

There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

目前沒有其他問題。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please give us a call. Have a great day.

謝謝接線生，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請致電我們。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now ended. Thank you all for joining. You may all disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，會議現已結束。感謝大家的加入。你們都可以斷開連線。