加拿大自然資源公司 (CNQ) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. We would like to welcome everyone to the Canadian Natural Resources 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions). Please note that this call is being recorded today August 3, 2023 at 9:00 a.m. mountain time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Lance Casson, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好。我們歡迎大家參加加拿大自然資源 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議和網絡廣播。 （操作員說明）。請注意，本次通話錄音於山區時間今天 2023 年 8 月 3 日上午 9:00 進行。現在我想將會議轉交給今天電話會議的主持人、投資者關係經理蘭斯·卡森 (Lance Casson)。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Canadian Natural's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As always, before we begin, I'd like to remind you of our forward-looking statements. And it should be noted that in our reporting disclosures, everything is in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated, and we reported reserves and production before royalties. Additionally, I would suggest to review our comments on non-GAAP disclosures in our financial statements. With me this morning are Tim McKay, our President; and Mark Stainthorpe, our Chief Financial Officer. Tim will first speak to how Canadian Natural is targeting strong production in the second half of 2023, following the completion of planned turnarounds and through our strategic growth plan. Additionally, he'll touch on some highlights of our ESG achievements from our 2022 Stewardship Report to stakeholders that was released today, followed by specifics on our safe, reliable and world-class operations.

大家早上好，感謝您參加 Canadian Natural 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。與往常一樣，在我們開始之前，我想提醒您我們的前瞻性陳述。應該指出的是，在我們的報告披露中，除非另有說明，所有內容均以加元為單位，並且我們在特許權使用費之前報告了儲量和產量。此外，我建議審查我們對財務報表中非公認會計原則披露的評論。今天早上和我在一起的是我們的總統蒂姆·麥凱；和我們的首席財務官馬克斯坦索普。 Tim 將首先講述 Canadian Natural 在完成計劃周轉後並通過我們的戰略增長計劃如何在 2023 年下半年實現強勁生產的目標。此外，他還將介紹今天向利益相關者發布的 2022 年管理報告中我們的 ESG 成就的一些亮點，然後詳細介紹我們安全、可靠和世界一流的運營。

Mark will then summarize our financial results, our strong financial position, free cash flow generation and significant returns to shareholders so far this year. To close, Tim will summarize our call prior to open up the line for questions. With that, I'll turn it over to you, Tim.

然後，馬克將總結今年迄今為止我們的財務業績、強勁的財務狀況、自由現金流的產生以及股東的顯著回報。最後，蒂姆將在開放提問之前對我們的通話進行總結。這樣，我就把它交給你了，蒂姆。

Good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we achieved quarterly production of approximately 1.19 million BOEs per day, which included natural gas production at approximately 2.1 Bcf per day, with liquids production at approximately 847,000 barrels a day, both reflecting the operational impacts of the wildfires in Western Canada, third-party pipeline outage as well as planned turnaround activities in the quarter. The wildfires in Western Canada resulted in some assets being shut in at various times through the months of May and into July. There is no significant damage to our assets.

大家，早安。第二季度，我們的季度產量約為每天 119 萬桶油當量，其中天然氣產量約為每天 2.1 Bcf，液體產量約為每天 847,000 桶，兩者都反映了加拿大西部野火的運營影響、第三方管道中斷以及本季度計劃的周轉活動。加拿大西部的野火導致一些資產在五月和七月的不同時間被關閉。我們的資產沒有受到重大損害。

And essentially, all the production impacted by the wildfires has now been restored and we continue to actively monitor the situation. We'd like to thank our field personnel, their families as well as first responders, emergency response agencies for their efforts over the past few months. As a result of strong execution on our thermal growth plan, Q3 2023 average thermal production is now targeted to be approximately 280,000 barrels a day as well as Q4 which represents growth of approximately 30,000 barrels a day from Q4 2022 levels.

基本上，受野火影響的所有生產現已恢復，我們將繼續積極監測局勢。我們要感謝我們的現場工作人員、他們的家人以及急救人員、應急響應機構在過去幾個月中所做的努力。由於我們大力執行熱力增長計劃，2023 年第三季度的平均熱力產量目前目標為每天約 280,000 桶，第四季度的目標是每天比 2022 年第四季度的水平增長約 30,000 桶。

As well, it's well timed with Western Canadian Select pricing improving both year-to-date and forecasted to remains strong for the remainder of 2023. Following the completion of the planned turnarounds at both our world-class Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading assets, production in July has been strong with a monthly average of approximately 513,000 barrels a day, capturing SEO pricing that continues to be priced at a premium to WTI.

此外，加拿大西部精選定價今年迄今有所改善，預計在 2023 年剩餘時間內將保持強勁。在我們世界一流的油砂開采和升級資產、生產和生產完成計劃周轉後， 7 月份的產量一直強勁，月均產量約為每天513,000 桶，SEO 定價仍高於WTI。

Our 2023 capital budget has increased by about $200 million compared to the original budget. In particular, the Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading has increased by approximately $130 million, largely reflecting increased scope and third-party costs relating to isolating activities to ensure safe and effective operations. The remaining approximately $70 million remains -- relates to the North American E&P and thermal operations as a result for the increased non-operated activities and increased workover activities on properties as well as some inflationary pressures.

我們2023年的資本預算比原來的預算增加了約2億美元。特別是，油砂開采和升級增加了約 1.3 億美元，主要反映了與隔離活動以確保安全有效運營相關的範圍和第三方成本的增加。剩餘的約 7000 萬美元仍與北美 E&P 和熱力作業有關，這是由於非作業活動增加、財產修井活動增加以及一些通貨膨脹壓力造成的。

The 2023 targeted capital program is approximately $5.4 billion or approximately a 4% increase. Canadian Natural continues to be a leader on environmental, social and governance and has made it a priority towards collaborating with the industry and peers and governments to achieve meaningful GHG reductions in support of both Alberta and Canada's climate growth. Today, our 2022 Stewardship Report to stakeholders was released, which highlights several of our ESG accomplishments, including top-tier safety performance, working together with 167 indigenous businesses in which approximately $684 million in contracts were awarded in 2022. Additionally, we are an investment leader in R&D as we increased investment by 30% over 2021 levels. With over $587 million invested in technology development, deployment, focusing our reductions and reducing our environmental footprint, including greenhouse gas emissions and productivity improvements.

2023 年的目標資本計劃約為 54 億美元，即增長約 4%。加拿大自然基金會繼續成為環境、社會和治理領域的領導者，並優先考慮與行業、同行和政府合作，實現有意義的溫室氣體減排，以支持艾伯塔省和加拿大的氣候增長。今天，我們向利益相關者發布了2022 年管理報告，其中重點介紹了我們與167 家本土企業合作取得的多項ESG 成就，包括頂級安全績效，並於2022 年授予了約6.84 億美元的合同。此外，我們還是一家投資公司我們在研發方面處於領先地位，我們的投資比 2021 年增加了 30%。我們在技術開發、部署方面投入了超過 5.87 億美元，重點關注減排和環境足跡，包括溫室氣體排放和生產力提高。

I'll now do a brief overview of our assets, starting with natural gas. Overall, Q2 2023 natural gas production was approximately 2.1 Bcf which was comparable to Q2 2022 production. For North American operations, Q2 '23 production was slightly down at approximately 2.07 Bcf versus the Q2 2022 production of 2.09 Bcf, primarily a result of the wildfires, the third-party outage impact in the quarter by approximately 100 million cubic feet per day offset by our company's drill-to-fill strategy, adding low-cost, high-value, liquid-rich natural gas production volumes.

現在我將簡要概述我們的資產，首先是天然氣。總體而言，2023 年第二季度天然氣產量約為 2.1 Bcf，與 2022 年第二季度產量相當。對於北美業務，23 年第二季度的產量略有下降，約為2.07 Bcf，而2022 年第二季度的產量為2.09 Bcf，這主要是由於野火造成的，該季度第三方停電影響每天減少約1億立方英尺通過我們公司的鑽採戰略，增加低成本、高價值、富含液體的天然氣產量。

During the quarter, the company drilled 21 net wells of which 6.5 were brought on during the quarter meeting targeted rates. Our North American Q2 '23 gas operating cost was $1.35 an Mcf, which is up 17% compared to Q2 2022 of $1.15, primarily due to higher service and power costs as well as the impact of lower production volumes resulting from the wildfires and the third-party outage. Our teams continue to focus on cost control and operational excellence. For North American light oil and NGLs, Q2 production was 102,553 barrels a day, down from Q2 2022 of 109 ,907 barrels a day, primarily as a result of the wildfires and third-party outages impacting liquids production by approximately 7,600 barrels a day for the quarter.

本季度，該公司淨鑽探了 21 口井，其中 6.5 口是在本季度達到目標產量時開工的。我們的北美23 年第二季度天然氣運營成本為每立方英尺1.35 美元，與2022 年第二季度的1.15 美元相比增長了17%，這主要是由於服務和電力成本增加以及野火和第三次火災導致產量下降的影響。 -聚會中斷。我們的團隊繼續專注於成本控制和卓越運營。對於北美輕油和液化天然氣，第二季度產量為每天 102,553 桶，低於 2022 年第二季度的每天 109,907 桶，主要是由於野火和第三方停電影響液體產量每天約 7,600 桶。該季度。

Q2 2023 operating costs were $18.03 , up from Q2 operating costs of $15.19, reflecting the impact of higher service and power costs and lower volumes due to the wildfires and third-party outage. Our international assets in Q2 had oil production of 26,520 barrels a day, which is comparable to Q2 2022 levels of 25,907 barrels a day. Our international assets continued to generate good cash flow and value to the company. Moving to heavy oil. Production was 76,498 barrels a day in Q2 2023, up 15% from Q2 2022 of 66,521 barrels a day, primarily due to strong drilling results offsetting natural field declines.

2023 年第二季度的運營成本為 18.03 美元，高於第二季度的 15.19 美元，反映出服務和電力成本上升以及野火和第三方停電導致的銷量下降的影響。我們第二季度的國際資產石油產量為每天 26,520 桶，與 2022 年第二季度每天 25,907 桶的水平相當。我們的國際資產繼續為公司帶來良好的現金流和價值。轉向重油。 2023 年第二季度的產量為每天 76,498 桶，比 2022 年第二季度的每天 66,521 桶增長 15%，這主要是由於強勁的鑽探結果抵消了自然油田產量的下降。

Operating costs in Q2 were at $20.07, down 12% as compared to Q2 2022 operating costs of $22.86 primarily due to lower natural gas fuel costs. During the quarter, the company drilled 24 net heavy oil wells, of which 18 wells were multilaterals across our land base from Bonnyville to Lloydminster and to the Clearwater area as well as 6 slot wells, which all results are on targeted to budgeted rates. A key component of our long-life, low-decline assets, it's a world-class Pelican Lake pool, where the leading edge polymer flood continues to deliver significant value.

第二季度的運營成本為 20.07 美元，比 2022 年第二季度的運營成本 22.86 美元下降 12%，主要是由於天然氣燃料成本下降。本季度，該公司淨鑽探了24 口重油井，其中18 口是多邊井，橫跨我們從邦尼維爾到勞埃德明斯特和克利爾沃特地區的陸地基地，以及6 口狹縫井，所有結果均按照預算費率目標。它是世界級的 Pelican Lake 泳池，是我們長壽命、低損耗資產的關鍵組成部分，先進的聚合物驅替技術繼續在其中創造巨大價值。

Q2 2023 production was 47,151 barrels a day, down 8% versus Q2 2022 average of 51,112 barrels a day. reflecting the natural decline nature of the property as well as the polymer injection rates that were reinstated in February 2023. The field is targeted to return to its historical decline rate of approximately 5% in the latter half of 2023. The team continues to focus on mitigating cost pressures with Q2 '23 operating costs of $8.55 per barrel, an increase from our Q2 2022 operating cost of $7.99 per barrel reflecting higher service and power costs as well as lower production volumes.

2023 年第二季度產量為 47,151 桶/日，較 2022 年第二季度平均產量 51,112 桶/日下降 8%。反映了該礦區的自然衰退性質以及 2023 年 2 月恢復的聚合物注入率。該油田的目標是在 2023 年下半年恢復到約 5% 的歷史衰退率。該團隊繼續關注23 年第二季度運營成本為每桶8.55 美元，比2022 年第二季度每桶7.99 美元的運營成本有所增加，反映出服務和電力成本上升以及產量下降，從而緩解了成本壓力。

With our low decline and very low operating costs, Pelican Lake continues to have excellent netbacks. In our thermal in situ areas, in Q2 2023, we continued to leverage our continuous improvement culture, our expertise to deliver effective and efficient operations. Q2 2022 production was 238,941 barrels a day down from Q2 2022 production of 249,938 barrels a day as forecasted as a result of the planned turnaround at Primrose. Q2 operating costs were $14.59 per barrel, down approximately $ when compared to Q2 2022 operating costs of $18.93, largely a result of lower natural gas costs.

憑藉我們的低衰退和極低的運營成本，Pelican Lake 繼續擁有出色的淨收益。在我們的熱現場區域，2023 年第二季度，我們繼續利用我們的持續改進文化和專業知識來提供有效和高效的運營。由於 Primrose 計劃檢修，2022 年第二季度產量為 238,941 桶/日，低於預期的 2022 年第二季度產量 249,938 桶/日。第二季度的運營成本為每桶 14.59 美元，與 2022 年第二季度的運營成本 18.93 美元相比下降了約 10 美元，這主要是由於天然氣成本下降。

I'll now update our thermal growth plans. At Primrose, the company is targeting to grow production by approximately 25,000 barrels a day, primarily from its two new CCS pads -- CSS pads drilled in 2022. The production from these new pads, which target strong quarterly production of approximately 100,000 barrels a day for this area in the third and fourth quarter. At Kirby, the company is targeting to grow production by approximately 15,000 barrels a day from Q4 2022 levels to approximately 65,000 barrels a day in Q4 2023 as the company progressed the development of the 4 SAGD pads in 2023.

我現在將更新我們的熱力增長計劃。 Primrose 的目標是每天將產量增加約 25,000 桶，主要來自於 2022 年鑽探的兩個新 CCS 平台——CSS 平台。這些新平台的產量目標是季度產量強勁，每日產量約為 100,000 桶第三季度和第四季度針對該領域。 Kirby 的目標是，隨著公司在 2023 年推進 4 個 SAGD 平台的開發，將產量從 2022 年第四季度的水平增加到每天約 15,000 桶，到 2023 年第四季度增加到每天約 65,000 桶。

The three remaining pads are targeted to ramp up to full production capacity over the first 9 months of 2024 at a pace of 1 pad per quarter. At Jackfish, production has been very strong, averaging approximately 115,000 barrels a day with minimal growth capital since acquiring the asset, representing its long-life, low-decline nature. Production from these new pads were targeted to ramp up to their full production capacities in Q3 2024 and Q4 of 2024, respectively, supporting continued high utilization rates at Jackfish.

其餘三個墊的目標是在 2024 年前 9 個月以每季度 1 個墊的速度達到滿負荷生產。自收購該資產以來，Jackfish 的產量一直非常強勁，平均每天產量約為 115,000 桶，增長資本極少，這體現了其長壽命、低衰退的性質。這些新墊片的產量目標分別在 2024 年第三季度和 2024 年第四季度達到全部產能，以支持 Jackfish 持續保持高利用率。

Thermal in situ production is targeted to increase in the second half of 2023, averaging approximately 280,000 barrels a day. And with the strip WCS differentials will add incremental cash flow. In the company's world-class Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading assets, we had Q2 production averaging 355,246 barrels a day of SCO. As previously announced, the planned turnaround activities at the non-operated Scotford Upgrader and Horizon as well as Horizon were completed with Q2 operating costs that were $31.28 per barrel. Following the completion of the planned turnarounds at our world-class mining and asset upgrading, production in July has been very strong with a monthly average of approximately 513,000 barrels a day, capturing strong SEO pricing.

熱力原地產量目標是在 2023 年下半年增加，平均每天約 28 萬桶。並且隨著 WCS 條帶的差異將增加增量現金流。在該公司世界一流的油砂開采和升級資產中，我們第二季度的 SCO 平均產量為每天 355,246 桶。正如之前宣布的，未運營的 Scotford Upgrader 和 Horizo​​n 以及 Horizo​​n 的計劃周轉活動已完成，第二季度運營成本為每桶 31.28 美元。在完成世界級採礦和資產升級的計劃周轉後，7 月份的產量非常強勁，月均產量約為每天 513,000 桶，實現了強勁的 SEO 定價。

At Horizon, during the planned turnaround and as part of the reliability enhancement project, the company completed tie-in of two furnaces. In August, both furnaces are targeted to be operational, increasing SCO production capacity by approximately 5,000 barrels a day, which is included in our company's 2023 production guidance. The reliability enhancement project is targeted to add approximately 14,000 barrels a day of additional SCO capacity in 2025 as a result of shifting the maintenance schedule from once per year to once every 2 years, reducing downtime for maintenance activities and increasing overall reliability at Horizon. I'll now turn it over to Mark for a financial review.

在 Horizo​​n，在計劃周轉期間，作為可靠性增強項目的一部分，該公司完成了兩台熔爐的連接。兩座熔爐預計將於 8 月份投入運行，使 SCO 產能每天增加約 5,000 桶，這已納入我們公司 2023 年的生產指導中。該可靠性增強項目的目標是將維護計劃從每年一次改為每兩年一次，從而減少維護活動的停機時間並提高Horizo​​n 的整體可靠性，到2025 年，SCO 產能將增加約14,000 桶/天。我現在將把它交給馬克進行財務審查。

Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter of 2023, we generated strong financial results with adjusted funds flow of $2.7 billion and adjusted net earnings from operations of $1.3 billion, while major turnaround activity was completed in the quarter. Balanced allocation to our 4 pillars continues, including significant returns to shareholders in the quarter and so far this year. Up to and including August 2, 2023, year-to-date returns to shareholders totaled $4.3 billion, including $2.9 billion in dividends and $1.4 billion in share repurchases. Our commitment to increasing shareholder returns is evident in our sustainable and growing quarterly dividend which was increased to $0.90 per share from $0.85 per share earlier this year, marking 2023 as the 23rd consecutive year of dividend increases. Subsequent to quarter end, the Board has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.90 per share payable on October 5, 2023.

謝謝蒂姆，大家早上好。 2023 年第二季度，我們取得了強勁的財務業績，調整後資金流量為 27 億美元，調整後運營淨利潤為 13 億美元，同時主要扭虧為盈活動也在本季度完成。我們的四大支柱繼續保持平衡分配，包括本季度和今年迄今為止為股東帶來的豐厚回報。截至 2023 年 8 月 2 日（含），年初至今股東回報總額為 43 億美元，其中包括 29 億美元的股息和 14 億美元的股票回購。我們對提高股東回報的承諾體現在我們可持續且不斷增長的季度股息中，該股息從今年早些時候的每股 0.85 美元增至每股 0.90 美元，標誌著 2023 年股息連續 23 年增加。季度末後，董事會宣佈於 2023 年 10 月 5 日支付每股 0.90 美元的季度股息。

As planned maintenance activities were completed in Q2, we are targeting strong production volumes and free cash flow for the second half of 2023 as we move towards our $10 billion net debt level, where 100% of free cash flow will be allocated to shareholders as defined in our policy.

隨著計劃的維護活動在第二季度完成，我們的目標是在2023 年下半年實現強勁的產量和自由現金流，同時我們的淨債務水平將達到100 億美元，其中100% 的自由現金流將按照定義分配給股東在我們的政策中。

And of note, the second quarter marked the sixth year anniversary since the acquisition of 70% of the AOSP assets. As part of the acquisition, we issued 97.6 million shares. Shareholder returns through share repurchases since closing has been significant, resulting in a reduction of approximately 123 million shares or 10% to less than 1.1 billion shares outstanding as at June 30, 2023. Fewer shares outstanding than before the acquisition. Additionally, total corporate production has grown by roughly 50% or 442,000 BOEs a day when comparing Q1 2017 to Q1 2023. And since closing the acquisition, we have reduced debt by over $11 billion or about 50%, significantly reducing our overall risk profile. This demonstrates our focus on safe, reliable production, a strong financial position and our culture of continuous improvement.

值得注意的是，第二季度是收購 AOSP 70% 資產以來的六週年紀念日。作為收購的一部分，我們發行了 9760 萬股股票。自交易完成以來，股東通過股票回購獲得了巨大回報，截至2023 年6 月30 日，流通股數量減少了約1.23 億股，即10%，至不足11 億股。流通股數量比收購前減少。此外，與2017 年第一季度和2023 年第一季度相比，公司總產量增長了約50%，即每天442,000 個桶油當量。自完成收購以來，我們已減少了超過110 億美元或約50 % 的債務，顯著降低了我們的整體風險狀況。這體現了我們對安全、可靠生產的關注、強大的財務狀況以及持續改進的文化。

Finally, we're in a very strong financial position with debt to EBITDA at 0.7x at the end of the quarter, and we continue to maintain strong liquidity. Including revolving bank facilities, cash and short-term investments, liquidity at the end of Q2 was approximately $5.6 billion. When you combine our leading financial results with our top-tier reserves and asset base, this provides us with competitive advantages in terms of capital efficiency, flexibility and sustainability, all of which drive material free cash flow generation and strong returns on capital. With that, I'll turn it over to you, Tim for some final comments.

最後，我們的財務狀況非常強勁，本季度末的 EBITDA 債務為 0.7 倍，並且我們繼續保持強勁的流動性。包括循環銀行融資、現金和短期投資在內，第二季度末的流動性約為 56 億美元。當您將我們領先的財務業績與我們頂級的儲備和資產基礎相結合時，這為我們提供了在資本效率、靈活性和可持續性方面的競爭優勢，所有這些都推動了物質自由現金流的產生和強勁的資本回報。有了這個，我將把它交給你，蒂姆，以獲得一些最後的評論。

Thanks, Mark. Canadian Natural's advantage is our ability to effectively allocate cash flow to our four pillars. We have a well-balanced, diverse, large asset base, which a significant portion is long life, low decline assets we require less capital to maintain volumes. We continue to allocate cash flow to our four pillars in a disciplined manner to maximize value for our shareholders, which is all driven by effective capital allocation, effective and efficient operations and our teams who deliver top-tier results. We have robust and sustainable free cash flow and through our free cash flow allocation policy, returns to shareholders are significant which includes a growing dividend, which has increased for 23 consecutive years.

謝謝，馬克。 Canadian Natural 的優勢在於我們能夠有效地將現金流分配到我們的四大支柱。我們擁有均衡、多樣化、龐大的資產基礎，其中很大一部分是壽命長、損耗低的資產，我們需要較少的資本來維持產量。我們繼續以嚴格的方式將現金流分配給我們的四大支柱，以最大限度地為我們的股東創造價值，這一切都是由有效的資本配置、有效和高效的運營以及我們提供頂級業績的團隊驅動的。我們擁有強勁且可持續的自由現金流，通過我們的自由現金流分配政策，股東回報豐厚，其中包括不斷增長的股息，股息已連續 23 年增加。

In summary, we continue to focus on safe, reliable operations, enhancing our top-tier operations and we will continue to drive our environmental performance. We are in a very strong position and being nimble enhances our capacity to create value for our shareholders. We continue to apply that same drive to ESG, environmental, social and governance, a significant factor in our long-term sustainability. As we move forward to lower our carbon emissions, with our first target to reduce absolute Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 40% by 2035 from our 2020 baseline. On our journey to achieve our goal of net 0 GHG in the oil sands by 2050. Canadian Natural is delivering top-tier free cash flow generation, which is unique, sustainable, robust and clearly demonstrates our ability to both economically grow the business, deliver returns to shareholders by balancing our 4 pillars. With that, I will open the call to questions.

總之，我們將繼續專注於安全、可靠的運營，增強我們的頂級運營，並將繼續推動我們的環保績效。我們處於非常有利的地位，敏捷性增強了我們為股東創造價值的能力。我們繼續將同樣的動力應用於 ESG、環境、社會和治理，這是我們長期可持續發展的一個重要因素。隨著我們繼續降低碳排放，我們的首要目標是到 2035 年將範圍 1 和範圍 2 的絕對排放量比 2020 年基準減少 40%。我們正在努力實現到2050 年油砂淨零溫室氣體排放的目標。 Canadian Natural 正在提供頂級的自由現金流生成，這是獨特的、可持續的、穩健的，清楚地表明了我們在經濟上發展業務、交付通過平衡我們的四大支柱來回報股東。接下來，我將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) First question comes from Greg Pardy at RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Greg Pardy。

A couple of questions for me. Maybe to start, Mark, maybe just on the net debt side. Have you got a reasonable shot at getting to $10 billion by the end of this year based upon what you see in the production but also the commodity price landscape?

有幾個問題問我。也許首先，馬克，也許只是從淨債務方面開始。根據您對生產和大宗商品價格形勢的觀察，您是否有可能在今年年底前達到 100 億美元？

Yes, Greg, thanks for the question. It is very dependent on those commodity prices. So if you do see some strength in the commodity price towards the end of the year, I think there is a possibility we could get there at the end. I think with recent strip pricing, I forecasted to be still very early 2024.

是的，格雷格，謝謝你的提問。它非常依賴於這些商品的價格。因此，如果你確實看到年底大宗商品價格有所走強，我認為我們有可能在年底實現這一目標。我認為根據最近的帶鋼定價，我預計到 2024 年仍會很早。

Okay. Okay. conservative as we like. And then maybe just shifting gears over to Tim, I wanted to dig into the -- just the 513,000 that you put up a Horizon AOSP. But maybe a little bit more in terms of reminding us what the capacity is now across the combined asset and then perhaps how we should be thinking about operating costs on a go-forward basis.

好的。好的。我們喜歡保守。然後也許只是把話題轉到蒂姆身上，我想深入研究一下——你在 Horizo​​n AOSP 上設置的 513,000 個。但也許更多的是提醒我們合併資產現在的容量，然後也許我們應該如何考慮未來的運營成本。

Yes. Great. Good questions here. So I mean with Horizon and AOSP, obviously, the teams continue to work on opportunities to increase reliability and obviously deliver safe and effective operations there. So with that, during the turnaround, there was increased scope in terms of work that we felt needed to be done on the upgrader. And I'm actually very proud of our teams in terms of the effort, the way they approached it and dealt with all the work that needs to be done with that assets. So we've seen a little bit of inflationary pressures. But in general, I think we're on the right track in terms of making sure that those assets run reliably and consistently each and every day. In terms of capacities, Horizon on a capacity day is pretty well kind of in that 280, maybe a little bit more here. We'll see with the new furnaces. They are or forecasted or targeted to come on in the next couple of weeks. So that will be a great test for us in terms of seeing that increase.

是的。偉大的。這裡有好問題。因此，我的意思是，對於 Horizo​​n 和 AOSP，顯然，團隊將繼續尋找提高可靠性的機會，並顯然在那裡提供安全有效的運營。因此，在周轉期間，我們認為需要在升級器上完成的工作範圍擴大了。事實上，我對我們團隊的努力、他們處理問題的方式以及處理需要用這些資產完成的所有工作的方式感到非常自豪。所以我們看到了一點通脹壓力。但總的來說，我認為在確保這些資產每天可靠且一致地運行方面，我們走在正確的軌道上。就容量而言，Horizo​​n 在容量日的容量為 280 左右，也許這裡還多一點。我們將看看新熔爐的情況。它們預計或有目標將在未來幾週內發生。因此，就看到這種增長而言，這對我們來說將是一個巨大的考驗。

And AOSP, obviously, we've been creeping it up over time. And really, it's been doing a little bit better than its capacity here of flight. So I think it's really early here, the numbers look really strong here for July. I'd like to get through July and into August more and we'll see if we can keep that sustained rate. It's really, really, really positive. Both sides have done a really good job here coming out of the turnaround.

顯然，AOSP 隨著時間的推移，我們一直在不斷進步。事實上，它的表現比它的飛行能力要好一些。所以我認為現在還為時尚早，七月份的數字看起來非常強勁。我想在七月和八月多呆一段時間，看看是否能保持這種持續的速度。這真的非常非常積極。雙方在扭轉局面後都做得非常好。

The next question comes from Manav Gupta at UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

Guys, I just wanted to get some clarifications. You generally have a very informed view of apportionments, differentials. And if you could also help us understand from the perspective of the TMX start-up, how you're thinking about it?

伙計們，我只是想得到一些澄清。您通常對分配和差異有非常了解的看法。如果您也可以幫助我們從 TMX 初創公司的角度理解您是如何考慮的？

Sure. As far as apportionment, we don't see it being an issue. From all indications, TMX is -- we'll be making a call for line fill here in the fall here, August, September, October. So from that aspect, I look at it as a very positive and very constructive for Canada's oil, WCS. Because if you can appreciate, one, you'll have the line fill, and I believe it's up around 5 million barrels of line fill for that line. And then on top of it, the heavy oil capacity, I believe, is a little over 500,000 barrels a day. So it's going to take 500,000 barrels a day of heavy to a different market. So to me, I find that the WCS piece will be very constructive here. Obviously, typically, historically, the winter months it does widen a bit. But I mean, let's face it. It's 20%. That is still very strong on a relative basis.

當然。就分配而言，我們不認為這是一個問題。從所有跡象來看，TMX 是——我們將在秋季、八月、九月、十月在這裡召集線路填補。因此，從這個方面來看，我認為這對加拿大石油、WCS 來說是非常積極和非常有建設性的。因為如果你能欣賞，一，你就會得到管線填充，我相信該管線的管線填充量增加了大約 500 萬桶。除此之外，我相信重油產能每天略高於 50 萬桶。因此，每天將需要 50 萬桶重油運往不同的市場。所以對我來說，我發現 WCS 的文章在這裡非常有建設性。顯然，從歷史上看，冬季的月份確實會變寬一些。但我的意思是，讓我們面對現實吧。是20%。相對而言，這仍然非常強勁。

Perfect. And a quick follow-up is you are making investments to grow volumes both at oil sands as well as in situ projects, expected start-up somewhere around '25. Help us understand how those development projects are growing at this stage.

完美的。一個快速的後續行動是，您正在投資以增加油砂和現場項目的產量，預計在 25 年左右啟動。幫助我們了解這些開發項目現階段的進展情況。

Well, really, if you're talking about the thermal piece and the reliability pieces, those are really the only pieces that we've got going into next year right now. We have -- we'll be starting the budget process here in the fall to -- for other areas and decide on if we do more additions, pad additions at Primrose or at Kirby. So it's a little early on the forecasting into '24 and '25.

好吧，真的，如果你談論的是散熱部件和可靠性部件，那麼這些確實是我們明年要投入的唯一部件。我們將在秋季開始為其他領域制定預算流程，並決定是否進行更多的增加，在 Primrose 或 Kirby 進行補充。所以現在預測 24 年和 25 年還為時過早。

Next question comes from Dennis Fong at CIBC Wealth Markets.

下一個問題來自 CIBC 財富市場的 Dennis Fong。

I'll start with the first one maybe a bit of a follow-up to Manav's question. You've done a really good job in terms of ramping the production at Wolf lake and Primrose to 90,000 barrels a day plus for this year. What's your ability to kind of further optimize that capacity? I believe at your Investor Day, you outlined facility capacity towards the 140,000 barrel a day level. It seems like that's fairly low-hanging fruit when you think about again, driving OpEx and so forth. So just any kind of commentary around how you evaluate that and what the opportunity is there.

我將從第一個開始，也許是馬納夫問題的後續問題。今年，你們在將 Wolf Lake 和 Primrose 的產量提高到每天 90,000 桶以上方面做得非常出色。您進一步優化該能力的能力如何？我相信在您的投資者日，您概述了設施產能達到每天 140,000 桶的水平。當你再想一想，推動運營支出等等時，這似乎是相當容易實現的目標。因此，關於您如何評估這一點以及存在什麼機會的任何評論都可以。

Yes. Very good question there, Dennis. And obviously, the drill-to-fill opportunities are obviously ranked quite highly. So the team is progressing additional pads at Primrose, Kirby, where we could do those incremental volumes going into next year. Usual cycle time is about a year. So once we start sanctioning those pads, obviously, they're not cheap. They were roughly be almost $170 million per pad. So it's a pretty big project, and they take about a year's cycle time. So as we go into our budget process there. I can say that they are highly ranked as well as some of the SAGD opportunities and looking forward here into next year. So to your point, they are low-hanging fruit in terms of adding volumes.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，丹尼斯。顯然，鑽填機會顯然排名相當靠前。因此，該團隊正在柯比的普里姆羅斯開發更多的墊片，我們可以在那裡完成明年的增量工作。通常週期時間約為一年。因此，一旦我們開始批准這些護墊，顯然它們並不便宜。每個墊子的價格大約為 1.7 億美元。所以這是一個相當大的項目，需要大約一年的周期時間。因此，當我們進入預算流程時。我可以說他們的排名很高，並且有一些 SAGD 機會，並且期待明年。因此，就您的觀點而言，就增加銷量而言，它們是唾手可得的成果。

Great. Great. And then the second question I have, switching more over to the oil sands side. And you mentioned it briefly, and I guess your answer there to Greg's question, which is related to this kind of go around, we saw a little bit of scope change as well as, I guess, maybe incremental found work. As you think about stretching the time between periods of planned maintenance, how are you managing the potential for additional found work or changes in scope as you kind of run through?

偉大的。偉大的。然後是我的第二個問題，更多地轉向油砂方面。你簡單地提到了這一點，我想你對格雷格問題的回答，這與這種繞行有關，我們看到了一些範圍的變化，我想，也許增量找到了工作。當您考慮延長計劃維護週期之間的時間時，您如何管理在執行過程中發現的額外工作或範圍變化的可能性？

Yes, that's a very good question. And really, the key is having a very good preventative maintenance program and asset integrity program. And so I'm actually very proud of our team and the way we're approaching this. What they do is if they find any kind of concern on whether it's piping or equipment. They basically risk assess it. They go through a very detailed process in terms of will that piece of equipment make it until the next turnaround or is it something that has to be dealt with today. And I look at this last turnaround at Horizon, I mean, at both AOSP and Horizon, we saw some inflationary costs. But at Horizon, we have, like I said, a very detailed program.

是的，這是一個非常好的問題。事實上，關鍵是擁有非常好的預防性維護計劃和資產完整性計劃。因此，我實際上為我們的團隊以及我們實現這一目標的方式感到非常自豪。他們所做的就是如果他們發現任何有關管道或設備的問題。他們基本上對其進行風險評估。他們會經歷一個非常詳細的過程，以確定該設備是否能在下一次周轉之前完成，或者是否需要今天處理。我看看 Horizo​​n 的最後一次轉變，我的意思是，在 AOSP 和 Horizo​​n 上，我們都看到了一些通貨膨脹成本。但正如我所說，在地平線，我們有一個非常詳細的計劃。

I'm very proud of the way they approached it because they saw potential issues that would potentially decrease our reliability or decrease our utilization there. And as you know, any downtime at something like Horizon is very costly. So they looked at it. They did that work during the turnaround very effectively. So to me, the key in the oil sands is reliability. If you're -- if you can produce reliability every day, you can make very good returns. Obviously, if you miss something either through your PM program or your integrity program, it can be very costly in terms of unplanned downtime. So I look at it, it's setting us up well for that 2-year run by them doing thorough reviews of our piping, of our equipment to make sure it can run reliably.

我對他們的處理方式感到非常自豪，因為他們看到了潛在的問題，這些問題可能會降低我們的可靠性或降低我們的利用率。如您所知，像 Horizo​​n 這樣的公司的任何停機都會造成高昂的代價。所以他們看了看。他們在周轉期間非常有效地完成了這項工作。所以對我來說，油砂的關鍵是可靠性。如果你每天都能產生可靠性，那麼你就能獲得非常好的回報。顯然，如果您在 PM 計劃或誠信計劃中遺漏了某些內容，那麼計劃外停機的成本可能會非常高。所以我看了一下，他們對我們的管道和設備進行了徹底的審查，以確保其能夠可靠地運行，這為我們的兩年運行做好了準備。

The next question comes from Menno Hulshof at TD Securities.

下一個問題來自道明證券的 Menno Hulshof。

I'll start with a question on the acceleration of the timeline for ramp-up of new thermal capacity. You talked about strong execution, but was there anything that really stood out as driving that better-than-expected outcome? And I guess I'm asking that in the context of what still looks to be a fairly challenging operating environment.

我將首先提出一個關於加快新熱容量提升時間表的問題。您談到了強大的執行力，但是有什麼真正突出的因素推動了超出預期的結果嗎？我想我是在看起來仍然相當具有挑戰性的運營環境的背景下提出這個問題的。

All the way along, which is -- it's a very good question because really, we've always said that the key to delivering good cost control is having very tight execution plan and then sticking to the plan. And so the one thing with thermal is it's very condense. So we have -- it's in all proximal areas. And it's very much the same pad adds by having a very structured pad add design, you can do it cost effectively. So what we're seeing is of the first pad, it took more time. And then as we keep doing these pad adds, the teams are learning ways to do the construction better and more cost effectively and timely.

一直以來，這是一個非常好的問題，因為實際上，我們一直說實現良好成本控制的關鍵是製定非常嚴格的執行計劃，然後堅持該計劃。因此，熱量的一件事是它非常凝結。所以我們在所有鄰近區域都有。通過具有非常結構化的焊盤添加設計，它與焊盤添加非常相似，您可以經濟高效地做到這一點。所以我們看到的是第一個墊，它花了更多的時間。然後，當我們繼續添加這些墊塊時，團隊正在學習如何更好、更經濟、更及時地進行施工。

So it's just by doing things one after another, you can continually improve, and that's kind of been our mantra all the way along is that by keeping things simple, keeping them effective, you can continuously improve those operations.

因此，只要通過一件又一件地做事情，你就可以不斷改進，這一直是我們的座右銘，那就是通過保持事情簡單、保持有效，你就可以不斷改進這些操作。

Terrific. And then moving on to natural gas drilling activity. I was just looking at the numbers year-on-year. It looks like you're effectively tracking right in line with last year in terms of net wells drilled. What does the rest of the year look like in terms of planned activity? I know you typically address this in the presentation, but I don't see the update on the site yet, so I'm going to ask that question. And then, how many rigs are currently active relative to the beginning of the year to the extent that you can comment on that?

了不起。然後繼續進行天然氣鑽探活動。我只是看同比數字。看起來您的淨鑽探井數與去年的情況基本一致。就計劃活動而言，今年剩餘時間的情況如何？我知道您通常會在演示文稿中解決這個問題，但我還沒有在網站上看到更新，所以我要問這個問題。那麼，相對於年初，目前有多少台鑽機處於活躍狀態，您可以對此發表評論嗎？

Sure. Well, today, we have 8 rigs. If you go back Q1, I said we'd probably be in the 9 to 10 rate -- rigs. So we're a little less today. But to me, that's just a timing issue per se. But my feeling is -- and we've reduced the natural gas count. I see us continuing with that. And to me, the costs on the natural gas side for drilling completions, the fracking, we're, in my mind, pressured here in the first quarter. And then to that other side, pricing has come off. So I think those will have opportunities maybe later in the year, and we'll see what -- how it looks here as we go into the -- more in towards the fourth quarter. But I don't feel any pressure to accelerate natural gas volumes in the market here today.

當然。好吧，今天我們有 8 台鑽機。如果你回到第一季度，我說過我們可能會處於 9 到 10 的水平——鑽機。所以今天我們的人數少了一些。但對我來說，這本身只是一個時間問題。但我的感覺是——我們已經減少了天然氣的用量。我認為我們會繼續這樣做。對我來說，天然氣方面的鑽井完井成本和水力壓裂，在我看來，我們在第一季度面臨壓力。另一方面，定價也有所下降。因此，我認為這些機會可能會在今年晚些時候出現，當我們進入第四季度時，我們會看到情況如何。但我今天並沒有感受到任何加速市場上天然氣銷量的壓力。

Next question comes from Neil Mehta at Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Just two quick questions here. First on managing inflationary forces, can you talk about where you're seeing areas of pressure and areas of relief and then put that in the context of the $200 million budget bump this year, which you talked a little bit in the prepared remarks there.

這裡只有兩個簡單的問題。首先，關於管理通脹力量，您能否談談您所看到的壓力領域和緩解領域，然後將其放在今年預算增加2 億美元的背景下，您在準備好的講話中對此進行了一些討論。

Yes. The big ones here that I see today are labor and labor continues to be pressured. With that, I would say the supply side and equipment deliveries are pressured. And what we're doing today is we have to order, shall we say, further ahead for activities in the future. And so the supply piece is difficult. The transportation piece was inflated as well in terms of trying to get the stuff out of the ports of Vancouver and that. So we're seeing what I would call, little incremental pieces, obviously, food costs. Power costs have gone up. So to me, all that has to kind of work through your system because our manufacturers of vessels or equipment do see the increased power costs, do increase labor costs. And you can't today, offset it one-to-one. On the other side, as things start to level out, you will find again efficiencies. But in the short term, those cost pressures roll through the whole system. So to me, it's just managing what you can going forward.

是的。我今天在這裡看到的最大問題是勞動力，而且勞動力繼續受到壓力。因此，我想說供應方和設備交付都面臨壓力。我們今天要做的是，我們必須為未來的活動提前下令，容我們說。因此供應件是困難的。在試圖將貨物運出溫哥華港口等方面，運輸部分也被誇大了。因此，我們看到了我所說的小增量，顯然是食品成本。電力成本上漲了。所以對我來說，所有這些都必須通過您的系統進行，因為我們的船舶或設備製造商確實看到了電力成本的增加，勞動力成本的增加。今天你不能一對一地抵消它。另一方面，隨著事情開始趨於平穩，你會再次發現效率。但短期內，這些成本壓力會席捲整個系統。所以對我來說，這只是管理你可以前進的事情。

Yes. And then the follow-up is just on SEO. You talked a little bit with Manav about the WCS outlook, but SEO continues to trade very firm at a premium relative to WTI. I would imagine part of it is just the higher distillate cut and diesel margins are strong. But any perspective you can provide on how you think about the outlook for crude pricing would be great, too.

是的。然後後續就只是SEO了。您與 Manav 討論了 WCS 的前景，但 SEO 的交易價格仍相對於 WTI 溢價非常堅挺。我想部分原因是餾分油削減量較高，而柴油利潤率很高。但如果您能提供有關如何看待原油定價前景的任何觀點，那也很棒。

Yes, I think it's very constructive as well. And to your point, at the high distillate cut, it can -- it will trade at a premium. And again, I just look at it the whole oil side, in my mind, looks very constructive here for Western Canada because incremental capacities even on the light oil side, you get to another 300,000 or so of incremental egress. People have to actually look at where they go with their volumes in terms of trying to get the best price for it. So I just look at both the WCS and CEO is being very constructive here going into the fall.

是的，我認為這也非常有建設性。就你的觀點而言，在高餾分油削減的情況下，它可以以溢價進行交易。再說一次，我只是看看整個石油方面，在我看來，這對加拿大西部來說看起來非常有建設性，因為即使是在輕油方面，增量產能也能達到另外300,000 左右的增量出口。人們必須真正考慮他們的銷量，才能獲得最優惠的價格。所以我只看到 WCS 和首席執行官在秋季都非常有建設性。

Next question from Doug Leggate at Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

This is actually Clay on for Doug. I've only got one, because a lot of things have already been touched. But this is also a follow-up on TMX. Understand that you guys are a contract to shipper and are involved in the tariff negotiation. Just wondering if you can walk through the resolution time line? And also maybe give us an idea of the cash flows and how that would trend during line fill. Because the way I'm thinking about it is you'll obviously be placing barrels into the system, but it's not clear to me that the cash will be realized on a real-time basis or still be some lag?

這實際上是克萊為道格所做的。我只有一個，因為很多東西已經被觸及了。但這也是 TMX 的後續。了解你們是托運人的合同並參與關稅談判。只是想知道您是否可以完成解決時間線？也許還可以讓我們了解現金流量以及在線路填充期間現金流量的趨勢。因為我的想法是，你顯然會將桶放入系統中，但我不清楚現金是否會實時變現，還是仍然存在一些滯後？

Yes. Well, on the second part of that question, there's likely to be some lag on the cash flows realized. That's right because you'll be using some barrels for fill.

是的。嗯，關於這個問題的第二部分，實現的現金流可能會存在一些滯後。沒錯，因為您將使用一些桶來填充。

And then on the first question, with the TMX. So the way the process works is the decision-maker is the CER. So it's a Canadian Energy Regulator. And so what they did is, I think, yesterday came out with the questions, not only for TMX, but a process here in terms of supplying information to the Canadian Energy Regulator. And so with that, to me, it will just be under the process that they define. And if I would say it's going to take a few months, maybe. But really, it's out of our hands in terms of the actual timing. To me, the CER does what it's supposed to do and take a firm look at both sides, the information each side provides and then makes the decision in appropriate time. So from that aspect, to me, it's just normal business in terms of how we have to work under the Canadian Energy Regulators' rules.

然後關於第一個問題，關於 TMX。因此，該流程的運作方式是決策者是 CER。所以它是加拿大能源監管機構。我認為他們昨天所做的就是提出問題，不僅是針對 TMX，而且是向加拿大能源監管機構提供信息的過程。因此，對我來說，這將按照他們定義的流程進行。如果我說這可能需要幾個月的時間。但實際上，就實際時間而言，這超出了我們的控制範圍。對我來說，CER 做了它應該做的事情，認真審視雙方以及雙方提供的信息，然後在適當的時間做出決定。因此，從這個方面來看，對我來說，就我們如何在加拿大能源監管機構的規則下工作而言，這只是正常的業務。

I appreciate that. And just to be clear, the tariff will be defined before line fill starts. Is that right?

我很感激。需要明確的是，關稅將在線路填充開始之前確定。是對的嗎？

We don't know. I can't say that (inaudible) because the line fill could start here maybe in August, September. We don't have control of that either. So really, that would be a better question maybe for TMX on when they expect to see the line fill.

我們不知道。我不能這麼說（聽不清），因為線路填充可能會在八月、九月開始。我們也無法控制這一點。所以說真的，對於 TMX 來說，當他們期望看到隊列被填滿時，這可能是一個更好的問題。

At this time, there are no further questions, and you may proceed.

此時，沒有其他問題，您可以繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please give us a call. Thanks, and have a great day.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請致電我們。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。