CNH Industrial NV (CNHI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to CNH fourth quarter conference call. Please note, this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions). I will now hand you over to your host, Mr. Jason Omerza, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

您好，歡迎參加 CNH 第四季電話會議。請注意，此通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）。現在我將請主持人投資者關係副總裁 Jason Omerza 先生開始今天的會議。謝謝。

Thank you, Ben, and good morning, everyone. We would like to welcome you to the webcast and conference call for CNH Industrial's fourth quarter and full year results for the period ending December 31, 2023. This call is being broadcast live on our website and is copyrighted by CNH. Any other use recording or transmission of any portion of this broadcast without the express written consent of CNH is strictly prohibited. Hosting today's call are CNH CEO, Scott Wine; and CFO, Oddone Incisa. They will use the material available for download from the CNH website.

謝謝你，本，大家早安。歡迎您參加凱斯紐荷蘭工業集團截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的第四季和全年業績的網路廣播和電話會議。本次電話會議在我們的網站上進行直播，版權歸 CNH 所有。未經 CNH 明確書面同意，嚴禁以任何其他方式錄製或傳輸本廣播的任何部分。主持今天電話會議的是 CNH 執行長 Scott Wine；和財務長 Oddone Incisa。他們將使用可從 CNH 網站下載的資料。

Please note that any forward-looking statements that we might make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included in the presentation material. Additional information pertaining to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K as well as other periodic reports and filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

請注意，我們在今天的電話會議中可能做出的任何前瞻性陳述均受到演示材料中安全港聲明中提到的風險和不確定性的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊包含在公司最新的 10-K 表格年度報告以及其他定期報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。

The company presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. Additional information, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures is included in the presentation material. I will now turn the call over to Scott.

公司簡報包括某些非公認會計準則財務指標。演示材料中還包含其他信息，包括與最直接可比較的美國公認會計準則財務指標的調節。我現在將把電話轉給斯科特。

Thank you, Jason, and thanks, everyone, for joining our call. Our 2023 Fourth quarter and full year results reflect the CNH team's resilience and dedication to driving customer-inspired innovation lean operations and sharp commercial execution. With purpose, pace and positive changes progressing throughout the organization, the results are evident in our margin progression.

謝謝傑森，也謝謝大家加入我們的電話會議。我們的 2023 年第四季和全年業績反映了 CNH 團隊的韌性和奉獻精神，致力於推動客戶啟發的創新、精益營運和敏銳的商業執行力。隨著整個組織的目標、步伐和積極變革的進展，結果在我們的利潤成長中顯而易見。

Our Agriculture and Construction segments both achieved record EBIT margins for the year as they balance continued price discipline with aggressive cost management. We are improving through-cycle margins to be more profitable regardless of industry strength and our ag business demonstrated that in the fourth quarter.

我們的農業和建築部門在持續的價格紀律與積極的成本管理之間取得了平衡，因此今年的息稅前利潤率均創歷史新高。無論行業實力如何，我們都在提高整個週期的利潤率，以實現更高的利潤，我們的農業業務在第四季度證明了這一點。

2023 was our second full year as a pure-play agriculture and construction company, and we again achieved record revenue and net income. I'm quite proud of the way the team addressed a challenging demand environment, notably in South America, where we are benefiting from our long-term focus on customer and dealer satisfaction. Our Brazilian dealers gave us early warnings about farmers postponing purchases, allowing tighter management of dealer inventories and demonstrating our commitment to their success, not just ours.

2023 年是我們作為純粹的農業和建築公司的第二個完整年度，我們再次實現了創紀錄的收入和淨利潤。我對團隊應對充滿挑戰的需求環境的方式感到非常自豪，特別是在南美洲，我們從長期關注客戶和經銷商滿意度中受益。我們的巴西經銷商向我們發出了關於農民推遲採購的早期警告，允許對經銷商庫存進行更嚴格的管理，並表明我們對他們成功的承諾，而不僅僅是我們自己的成功。

Since the demerger, we have been fully able to fund our core businesses and allocate capital more efficiently, evidenced by our increased R&D and CapEx investments. The benefits from our intensified focus on product development are already visible as we launch 72 new products in 2023. Many of these fully integrated with in-house tech solutions garnering positive feedback from dealers and customers. This helped push our sales contribution from precision tech components over $1 billion in 2023 as planned, and that is just the beginning. We have considerably more tech-enabled products coming in the quarters and years ahead.

自從分拆以來，我們完全能夠為我們的核心業務提供資金並更有效地分配資本，這從我們增加的研發和資本支出投資中就可以看出。隨著我們在 2023 年推出 72 種新產品，我們加強關注產品開發的好處已經顯而易見。其中許多產品與內部技術解決方案完全集成，獲得了經銷商和客戶的積極反饋。這幫助我們按計劃在 2023 年精密技術組件的銷售額貢獻超過 10 億美元，而這只是開始。未來幾季和幾年，我們將推出更多技術支援的產品。

Fourth quarter consolidated revenues were down 2% and industrial net sales declined 5% as South American markets remain soft, and we underproduced low-horsepower tractors in North America. Despite the drop in sales, we expanded industrial EBIT margin by almost a full percentage point, with adjusted net income growing 15%. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.42, up $0.06 from last year. As Oddone will highlight, we are beginning to see the benefits of our enhanced focus on costs.

由於南美市場依然疲軟，而且我們在北美的低馬力拖拉機產量不足，第四季度綜合收入下降了 2%，工業淨銷售額下降了 5%。儘管銷售額下降，我們的工業息稅前利潤率卻擴大了近一個百分點，調整後淨利成長了 15%。該季度調整後每股收益為 0.42 美元，比去年增加 0.06 美元。正如奧多恩將強調的那樣，我們開始看到加強關注成本的好處。

Our full year earnings results were equally impressive. Industrial net sales were only up 3% over the prior year, but EBIT rose 12% as price realization in the first half was supplemented by the accelerating impact of our cost actions, EBIT margin grew 110 basis points to 12.4%. Our CNH Business System, or CBS, is leveraging our deep and talented global team to streamline our operations and businesses.

我們的全年獲利結果同樣令人印象深刻。工業淨銷售額僅比上年增長3%，但息稅前利潤增長了12%，因為上半年的價格實現加上我們成本行動的加速影響，息稅前利潤率增長了110 個基點，達到12.4 %。我們的 CNH 業務系統 (CBS) 正在利用我們深厚且才華橫溢的全球團隊來簡化我們的營運和業務。

Adjusted EPS was $1.70, an increase of over $0.24 since 2022. Recall that $1.70 was our original 2024 target, so we hit that a year early.

調整後每股收益為 1.70 美元，自 2022 年以來增加了 0.24 美元以上。回想一下，1.70 美元是我們最初的 2024 年目標，所以我們提前一年實現了這一目標。

Derek Neilson and his agriculture team continued to execute extremely well last quarter, skillfully managing costs while confronting declining demand and elevated dealer inventories. Margin expansion in such an environment is tough, and I'm proud of what this team has accomplished.

德里克·尼爾森和他的農業團隊上個季度繼續表現出色，巧妙地管理成本，同時應對需求下降和經銷商庫存增加的情況。在這樣的環境下擴大利潤是很困難的，我為這個團隊所取得的成就感到自豪。

Stefano Pampalone and its construction team also did an excellent job. Construction margins were up 230 basis points in the quarter and 260 for the full year as they improve dealer performance, product innovation and cost efficiency. We decreased ag dealer inventory sequentially but remained up more than 5% year-over-year. Our needed increase in North American inventories of combines and high horsepower tractors outpaced proactive reductions in South America and in low horsepower tractor inventories in North America.

Stefano Pampalone 及其施工團隊也做得非常出色。隨著經銷商業績、產品創新和成本效率的提高，建築利潤率在本季成長了 230 個基點，全年成長了 260 個基點。我們連續減少了農業經銷商庫存，但仍同比增長 5% 以上。我們在北美增加的聯合收割機和大馬力拖拉機庫存的需求超過了南美主動減少的庫存和北美低馬力拖拉機的庫存。

We have some work to do in product-specific dealer inventory levels, particularly in Europe, so we will maintain our retail execution focus and appropriately manage shipments.

我們在特定產品的經銷商庫存水準方面還有一些工作要做，特別是在歐洲，因此我們將保持零售執行重點並適當管理出貨。

I want to clearly state that retail sales for both segments were ahead of the industry in the quarter and the full year. Our dealer's 2023 retail performance was impressive, and we appreciate their efforts. SG&A expenses declined year-over-year in the fourth quarter. We expect this trend to continue for every quarter in 2024, driven by our restructuring program, which is well underway. We reached an important and exciting milestone in our strategic sourcing program as we begin supplier selection for the first wave of components.

我想明確指出，這兩個細分市場的零售額在本季和全年均領先產業。我們經銷商 2023 年的零售業績令人印象深刻，我們感謝他們的努力。第四季銷售、管理及行政費用較去年同期下降。在我們正在進行的重組計劃的推動下，我們預計這一趨勢將在 2024 年每個季度持續下去。當我們開始為第一批零件選擇供應商時，我們在策略採購計畫中達到了一個重要且令人興奮的里程碑。

As we look at our strategic priorities, I would like to start with customer-inspired innovation. We mentioned last quarter that CNH won the only gold medal at Agritechnica for the New Holland CR11, our next-generation flagship combine. I want to quickly highlight how it exemplifies the integration of world-class technology with our great iron. This machine offers a full suite of benefits requested by our customers, providing much greater productivity and yield for the farmer. Real-time machine learning, automated predictive adjustments, intelligent fuel management and unique sensors to understand the crop's nutrient composition, are just a few of the combined extraordinary features. The CR11, with its counterpart, the new Case IH AF11 will cement our standing as the world's foremost large combine manufacturer and will especially help us improve our position in North America.

當我們審視我們的策略重點時，我想從客戶啟發的創新開始。我們上季度提到，CNH 憑藉我們的下一代旗艦聯合收割機 New Holland CR11 贏得了 Agritechnica 唯一的金牌。我想快速強調一下它是如何體現世界一流技術與我們偉大的熨斗的整合的。該機器提供了客戶要求的全套優勢，為農民提供了更高的生產力和產量。即時機器學習、自動預測調整、智慧燃料管理和了解作物營養成分的獨特感測器只是這些非凡功能的一小部分。 CR11 及其對應產品新型 Case IH AF11 將鞏固我們作為世界上最重要的大型聯合收割機製造商的地位，尤其有助於我們提高在北美的地位。

These beasts will be in the field around the world this year for intensive testing and demonstrations with order books opening later this year for 2025 deliveries. CNH remains committed to adding value and creating profitable growth for its customers and shareholders through sustainability. We continue to build on our legacy of sustainability performance as evidenced by the recognitions we receive. For example, replacing the top 5% of over 9,000 companies rated in S&P's Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment and took second place overall in the Dow Jones World Index in the machinery and electric component category.

這些猛獸今年將在世界各地進行密集測試和演示，並於今年稍後開放訂單，並於 2025 年交付。 CNH 始終致力於透過永續發展為客戶和股東增加價值並創造獲利成長。我們持續發揚永續發展績效的傳統，我們獲得的認可就證明了這一點。例如，取代了標準普爾全球企業永續發展評估中排名前 5% 的 9,000 多家公司，並在道瓊斯世界指數機械和電氣元件類別中總體排名第二。

Like our farmers around the world, CNH maintained its long-standing commitment to protecting the environment and we are excited about our customer adoption of our first-to-market innovations that enhance customer productivity while improving fuel and emission savings. Due to the continued supply disruptions in 2022, we purposely delayed much of our $550 million cost reduction program. But with solid improvements in 2023, we remain confident of reaching that cumulative savings target this year. As a reminder, we are targeting three main drivers: reducing logistics costs, lean manufacturing operations through CBS and supply chain savings, including our strategic sourcing program. With a solid foundation to build upon, CBS has been enthusiastically embraced around the company as we engage our employees to create more efficient processes using lean principles and Kaizen events.

與世界各地的農民一樣，CNH 恪守其對保護環境的長期承諾，我們很高興客戶採用我們率先上市的創新技術，這些創新技術可提高客戶的生產力，同時改善燃油和排放節約。由於 2022 年供應持續中斷，我們故意推遲了 5.5 億美元的成本削減計劃的大部分內容。但隨著 2023 年的穩定改善，我們仍有信心在今年實現累積節省目標。提醒一下，我們的目標是三個主要驅動因素：降低物流成本、透過 CBS 進行精實製造營運以及供應鏈節約，包括我們的策略採購計畫。憑藉著堅實的基礎，CBS 受到了全公司的熱烈歡迎，我們鼓勵員工利用精益原則和 Kaizen 活動創建更有效率的流程。

Strategic sourcing is ramping up, and we will begin to contribute in 2024 with accelerating savings for many quarters to come.

策略採購正在增加，我們將於 2024 年開始做出貢獻，並在未來多個季度加速節省。

For our SG&A restructuring, a 10% to 15% reduction translates to about $160 million to $240 million of savings. We are well underway with this difficult work and expect to complete this effort in the first half of 2024. We are also zero-based budgeting our non-labor SG&A with an eye toward rightsizing some of our service agreements and expanding support operations in low-cost countries. Together, we expect these SG&A initiatives to save about $140 million to $180 million in 2024 with the remainder carried over into 2025. I will now turn the call over to Oddone to take us through the financial results.

對於我們的 SG&A 重組，減少 10% 至 15% 意味著節省約 1.6 億至 2.4 億美元。我們正在順利進行這項艱鉅的工作，並預計在2024 年上半年完成這項工作。我們也對我們的非勞動力SG&A 進行零基預算，著眼於調整我們的一些服務協議規模，並擴大低收入地區的支援業務。成本國家。我們預計這些 SG&A 措施將在 2024 年節省約 1.4 億至 1.8 億美元，其餘部分將延續至 2025 年。我現在將電話轉給 Oddone，讓我們了解財務表現。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, good afternoon to everyone on the call. Fourth quarter industrial net sales were down 5% year-over-year to $6 billion. The decline was mostly due to lower sales in [agriculture] equipment dealers, especially in South America. In Q4 of 2022, we have also seen a strong growth of dealer inventories in low horsepower tractors in North America, but those reduced significantly in the fourth quarter of 2023 as we underproduce retail by almost 40% in this product category during the second half of the year.

謝謝你，史考特，祝所有參加電話會議的人早安、下午好。第四季工業淨銷售額年減 5%，至 60 億美元。下降的主要原因是[農業]設備經銷商的銷售下降，特別是在南美洲。 2022 年第四季度，我們也看到北美低馬力拖拉機經銷商庫存強勁增長，但由於我們在 2023 年下半年該產品類別的零售量下降了近 40%，庫存在 2023 年第四季度大幅減少。那一年。

For the full year, net sales were $22.1 billion, up 3% from 2022, mainly driven by price realization in the first half offsetting the lower unit sales in the full year. Our profits increased year-over-year in every single quarter despite a slow in sales. Adjusted net income was $2.3 billion for the year with an adjusted diluted EPS of $1.70, up $0.24 versus 2022. The negative impact from the Argentine peso devaluation and the resulting loss in value from our cash holdings was about $0.04 of both the adjusted and the unadjusted EPS.

全年淨銷售額為 221 億美元，較 2022 年增長 3%，主要是由於上半年的價格實現抵消了全年單位銷售額的下降。儘管銷售放緩，但我們每季的利潤都比去年同期成長。本年度調整後淨利潤為23 億美元，調整後攤薄每股收益為1.70 美元，比2022 年增長0.24 美元。阿根廷比索貶值以及由此導致的我們現金持有價值損失的負面影響，調整後和未調整後的每股收益約為0.04 美元每股收益。

Q4 industrial free cash flow was $1.6 million. Full year free cash flow was $1.2 billion at the top of the most recent guidance range but down versus the previous year due to our effort to manage channel inventory. Industrial activities ended the year almost net debt-free.

第四季工業自由現金流為 160 萬美元。全年自由現金流為 12 億美元，處於最新指導範圍的頂部，但由於我們努力管理通路庫存，與前一年相比有所下降。年底工業活動幾乎沒有淨債務。

In agriculture, the net sales decrease of 8% in the quarter was driven by lower industry demand, especially in South America for all product categories and for combines in North America and EMEA. Full year net sales were up 1%, driven mainly by higher price utilization in North America, offset by the unfavorable volume and mix, mostly in South America. As we see cost reduction accelerating in our production system, we improved our gross margin in both the quarter and the full year, closing 2023 at 25.5%, up 170 basis points from 2022.

在農業領域，本季淨銷售額下降 8%，原因是產業需求下降，特別是南美洲所有產品類別以及北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區聯合收割機的需求。全年淨銷售額成長 1%，主要是由於北美價格利用率較高，但被主要在南美洲的銷售和產品組合不利所抵消。隨著我們生產系統成本下降的加速，我們季度和全年的毛利率均有所提高，2023 年毛利率達到 25.5%，比 2022 年增長 170 個基點。

Q4 EBIT and EBIT margin also benefited from $14 million of lower SG&A expenses. The full year adjusted EBIT increase of 1.4 percentage points was driven by favorable price over cost and higher JV income, which you'll find in the FX and other category, more than offsetting the adverse volume and mix in the second half of the year.

第四季 EBIT 和 EBIT 利潤率也受益於 SG&A 費用減少 1,400 萬美元。全年調整後息稅前利潤增長1.4 個百分點，這是由於價格相對於成本有利以及合資企業收入較高（您會在外匯和其他類別中發現），這足以抵消下半年不利的交易量和組合。

Turning to construction. Net sales for Q4 were up 9% year-over-year, mostly due to price realization and higher volumes in North America, partially offset by lower volumes in EMEA and South America. Full year sales were up 10% to $3.9 billion, driven by the strength of North America demand and positive price realization. Gross margins increased by 2.3 percentage points in 2023 to 15.6% from favorable price over cost. Q4 adjusted EBIT also benefited from lower SG&A expenses, resulting in a 5.8% EBIT margin. The full year margin closed to an all-time high of 6.1%, up to 160 basis points, substantially driven by the price of our product cost relationship.

轉向建築。第四季淨銷售額年增 9%，主要是由於北美地區的價格實現和銷量增加，部分被歐洲、中東和非洲和南美洲銷量下降所抵消。受北美強勁需求和積極價格實現的推動，全年銷售額成長 10%，達到 39 億美元。由於價格優於成本，2023 年毛利率成長 2.3 個百分點至 15.6%。第四季調整後的息稅前利潤也受惠於 SG&A 費用的降低，息稅前利潤率為 5.8%。全年利潤率收在 6.1% 的歷史新高，高達 160 個基點，主要受到我們產品成本關係價格的推動。

For Financial Services, net income in the fourth quarter was $113 million, a 50% increase compared to Q4 2022. The sharp improvement was mostly driven by higher receivables portfolio across regions, better margins and lower risk costs, only partially offset by a higher effective tax rate for the segment. Retail originations in the quarter were $3.4 billion, up $0.5 billion compared to the same period of 2022 as we are capturing a higher percentage of our end customer equipment financing needs. The managed portfolio at year-end was nearly $29 billion, up over $5 billion compared to the prior year. We have been able to raise capital efficiently and affordably throughout the year to fund our credit operations.

金融服務業第四季淨利為1.13 億美元，較2022 年第四季成長50%。這一大幅改善主要是由於各地區應收帳款組合的增加、利潤率的提高和風險成本的降低，但僅部分被較高的有效收入所抵銷。該部門的稅率。本季的零售發起額為 34 億美元，與 2022 年同期相比增加了 5 億美元，因為我們捕捉了更高比例的終端客戶設備融資需求。截至年底，管理的投資組合接近 290 億美元，比上年增加超過 50 億美元。我們全年能夠有效率、經濟地籌集資金，為我們的信貸業務提供資金。

Financial Services profitability ratios have also improved year-over-year, and delinquencies remain at a very low level, even slightly higher than in 2022. This reflects the solid nature of agriculture equipment financing.

金融服務獲利率也較去年同期有所改善，拖欠率仍維持在非常低的水平，甚至略高於2022年。這反映了農業設備融資的穩健性。

Moving to our capital allocation priorities. At the 2022 Capital Market Day, we announced a $4.4 billion combined R&D and CapEx spending over '22 to 2024. Almost [double] to what we spent in ag construction in the previous three years, as we were no longer required to fund the on-highway capital needs of the larger CNH industrial. In the first two years of the plan, we spent $3 billion, reflecting increased activity levels and some inflation. We remain committed to invest in our business to fuel our profitable growth and we'll spend around $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in 2024 between R&D and CapEx. We are confident the products, technology and services that we're bringing to the market by virtue of the spending will ensure a better financial performance for the company and more importantly, higher productivity for our customers.

轉向我們的資本配置優先事項。在2022 年資本市場日，我們宣布22 年至2024 年的研發和資本支出總額為44 億美元。幾乎是前三年我們在農業建設方面的支出的兩倍，因為我們不再需要為農業建設提供經費-較大的CNH工業的公路資本需求。在該計劃的前兩年，我們花費了 30 億美元，反映出活動水準的增加和一定程度的通貨膨脹。我們仍然致力於投資我們的業務，以推動我們的獲利成長，到 2024 年，我們將在研發和資本支出之間支出約 14 億至 15 億美元。我們相信，我們透過支出向市場推出的產品、技術和服務將確保公司獲得更好的財務業績，更重要的是，為我們的客戶提供更高的生產力。

Our solid cash generation and healthy balance sheet are helping us improve our investment-grade credit rating. And last November, as S&P raised by one notch our rating to BBB+ with stable outlook.

我們穩健的現金產生能力和健康的資產負債表正在幫助我們提高投資等級信用評級。去年 11 月，標準普爾將我們的評級上調至 BBB+，展望穩定。

In 2023, we returned about $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. As you know, in November, we launched a $1 billion share buyback program in conjunction with our move to a single listing in New York with a target completion by March 1. To date, we have purchased about $935 million worth of shares between Milan and New York. And so we will likely complete the current program by the end of this month.

2023年，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還約12億美元。如您所知，去年11 月，我們啟動了一項10 億美元的股票回購計劃，同時在紐約進行單一上市，目標是在3 月1 日之前完成。迄今為止，我們已在米蘭和米蘭之間購買了價值約9.35 億美元的股票。紐約。因此，我們可能會在本月底之前完成目前的計劃。

The Board has authorized a new $500 million program share repurchase program that we will start at the end of this year. We also expect that the dividend distribution, consistent with our dividend policies and reflective of the higher net income achieved in 2023 will be approved by our shareholder meeting.

董事會已批准一項新的 5 億美元計劃股份回購計劃，該計劃將於今年年底啟動。我們也預計，與我們的股利政策一致並反映 2023 年實現的更高淨利潤的股利分配將得到股東大會的批准。

Finally, we will continue to seek opportunities to improve our product offerings and advance our tax to M&A, including through our CNH ventures are.

最後，我們將繼續尋找機會改善我們的產品供應，並提高併購稅費，包括透過我們的離岸人民幣合資企業。

Before turning back to Scott with the broader industry and company outlook, I would like to provide you with some details regarding our 2024 financial assumptions. Net price realization is expected to be between flat and 2% depending on the product and in the region. On average, for all products and regions, pricing will be around 1%. Again, we expect to spend between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion on combined R&D and CapEx in 2024, with R&D expenses about flat year-over-year at around $1 billion and CapEx between $400 million and $500 million. Corporate expenses or what we call unallocated and other industrial activities are expected to be about flat year-over-year in absolute dollar terms. At the company level, the adjusted effective tax rate would be in the range of 25% to 27%, similar to 2023. The diluted share count is estimated to about 1.25 billion, factoring in the impact of our current buyback program.

在向 Scott 介紹更廣泛的行業和公司前景之前，我想向您提供有關我們 2024 年財務假設的一些詳細資訊。淨價格實現預計將在持平至 2% 之間，具體取決於產品和地區。平均而言，對於所有產品和地區，定價約為 1%。同樣，我們預計 2024 年研發和資本支出合計支出將在 14 億至 15 億美元之間，其中研發支出同比持平，約為 10 億美元，資本支出在 4 億至 5 億美元之間。以絕對美元計算，企業支出或我們所說的未分配和其他工業活動預計將同比持平。在公司層面，調整後的有效稅率將在25%至27%的範圍內，與2023年類似。考慮到我們目前回購計畫的影響，稀釋後的股份數量估計約為12.5億股。

I will now turn it back to Scott.

我現在將其轉回給斯科特。

Thank you, Oddone. As we mentioned last quarter, we expect agriculture retail demand to be lower in 2024. Saw commodity prices have declined, driving year-over-year U.S. net farm income down to or even possibly below the 20-year average.

謝謝你，奧多內。正如我們上季度所提到的，我們預計 2024 年農業零售需求將下降。大宗商品價格下跌，導緻美國農場淨收入年減至甚至可能低於 20 年平均水準。

In aggregate, considering our key markets and product offerings, we expect industry retail demand to be down 10% to 15% in 2024. We forecast CNH's ag sales to be down between 8% and 12%. We do have pockets of elevated inventory in North America and Europe to address, which will impact first half sales volumes and pricing. Because of our early actions to manage dealer inventory in South America in 2023, we have relatively less work to do there. We are targeting ag EBIT margins between 14% and 15%. And as our cost reduction programs help offset lower volume and more of our factory fit precision products come in-house for our customers. It is important to recognize that we are building this margin resiliency while continuing to fully fund our tech journey.

總的來說，考慮到我們的主要市場和產品供應，我們預計 2024 年行業零售需求將下降 10% 至 15%。我們預測 CNH 的農業銷售額將下降 8% 至 12%。我們確實在北美和歐洲有大量庫存增加需要解決，這將影響上半年的銷售和定價。由於我們在 2023 年採取了早期行動來管理南美洲的經銷商庫存，因此我們在那裡要做的工作相對較少。我們的目標是息稅前利潤率在 14% 到 15% 之間。由於我們的成本削減計劃有助於抵消產量減少的影響，因此我們為客戶提供了更多工廠組裝的精密產品。重要的是要認識到，我們正在建立這種利潤彈性，同時繼續為我們的技術之旅提供充分資金。

In construction, we expect high interest rates to soften both residential and commercial end markets in North America and Europe, partially offset by U.S. infrastructure spending. In South America, construction markets are projected to be flattish, following a marked decline there in 2023.

在建築業方面，我們預計高利率將削弱北美和歐洲的住宅和商業終端市場，但美國基礎設施支出將部分抵消這種影響。在南美洲，建築市場在 2023 年顯著下滑後預計將持平。

In aggregate for our markets and products, we anticipate construction equipment industry retail demand to be down about 10% in 2024. CNH construction sales were, therefore, expected to be down in the range of 7% to 11% year-over-year. 2023 sales included dealer stocking of an atypically large number of new construction products which will not repeat to the same level in 2024. Our EBIT margin target for construction is between 5% and 6%, again, supported by our cost savings initiatives. Blending ag and construction brings our forecast for industrial net sales down between 8% and 12% in 2024. We do not control industry demand, but we do control how we react to it.

就我們的市場和產品而言，我們預計 2024 年建築設備行業零售需求將下降約 10%。因此，CNH 建築銷售額預計將同比下降 7% 至 11%。 2023 年的銷售包括經銷商庫存異常大量的新建築產品，這些產品在2024 年不會達到同一水平。我們的建築息稅前利潤率目標再次在5% 至6% 之間，這得益於我們的成本節約舉措。農業和建築業的整合使我們對 2024 年工業淨銷售額的預測下降了 8% 至 12%。我們無法控制行業需求，但我們確實可以控制我們對其的反應。

We are on a multiyear journey to improve through-cycle margins. And in 2023, we proved we can expand margins with slightly lower industry demand. In 2024, we will demonstrate that we can sustain through cycle margin improvements even as the industry declines further. We introduced this model of improving profitability curves last quarter. As you can see, our aggressive cost actions pushed the 2024 curve above the 2023 profile. The shaded area indicates the relevant industry and margin ranges implied by the segment guidance. With these levels of sales and EBIT, we expect industrial free cash flow to be between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion and EPS to be between $1.50 and $1.60 in 2024.

我們正在進行多年的努力，以提高整個週期的利潤率。到 2023 年，我們證明我們可以在行業需求略有下降的情況下擴大利潤率。到 2024 年，我們將證明，即使產業進一步下滑，我們也能夠透過週期利潤的改善來維持發展。上個季度我們引入了這種改善獲利曲線的模型。正如您所看到的，我們積極的成本行動將 2024 年曲線推至 2023 年曲線上方。陰影區域表示分部指引所暗示的相關產業和利潤範圍。根據這樣的銷售額和息稅前利潤水平，我們預計 2024 年工業自由現金流將在 12 億美元至 14 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.50 美元至 1.60 美元之間。

In addition to our cost actions, we are laser-focused on commercial execution, working with our dealer partners to provide customers with innovative, reliable and efficient solution. Our order collection in North America extends into Q3, but we have less visibility in other markets, particularly South America. Rafael Miotto, who leads that region for us has an especially strong team in dealer network and we are confident in our ability to outperform no matter how that market develops.

除了我們的成本行動之外，我們還專注於商業執行，與我們的經銷商合作夥伴合作，為客戶提供創新、可靠和高效的解決方案。我們在北美的訂單收集延續到第三季度，但我們在其他市場（尤其是南美）的知名度較低。為我們領導該地區的拉斐爾·米奧托 (Rafael Miotto) 在經銷商網絡方面擁有一支特別強大的團隊，無論該市場如何發展，我們都對自己的表現充滿信心。

We have talked extensively about the importance of advancement of our cost programs. Early on, we recognized the need for these measures and started working to implement them and improve our decremental margins. Our recent acquisitions have given us complete control of differentiating technological capabilities, which are already being integrated into our tech ecosystem. We are making progress building out our tech stack and are exploring options to accelerate this process and bring incremental benefits to our customers even faster.

我們已經廣泛討論了推進成本計劃的重要性。我們很早就認識到採取這些措施的必要性，並開始努力實施這些措施並提高我們的遞減利潤。我們最近的收購使我們能夠完全控制差異化技術能力，這些能力已經融入我們的技術生態系統中。我們正在建立技術堆疊方面取得進展，並正在探索加速這一過程的選項，並更快地為我們的客戶帶來增量利益。

We look forward to highlighting more of our journey at our upcoming Investor Day to be held on May 21 at the New York Stock Exchange. What you can expect there is a refresh of our financial targets and a progress update on our company strategy, not a new strategy. We are still executing the one we outlined in 2022, and our results demonstrate that it is working well for us.

我們期待在即將於 5 月 21 日在紐約證券交易所舉行的投資者日上重點介紹我們的更多旅程。您可以期待的是我們的財務目標的更新和公司策略的進展更新，而不是新的策略。我們仍在執行我們在 2022 年概述的計劃，我們的結果表明它對我們來說效果良好。

I will conclude by reiterating how much I appreciate the CNH team for finishing 2023 in strong fashion while (inaudible) us to take this company to another level in 2024. That concludes our prepared remarks. Ben, will you open the line for questions, please?

最後，我要重申，我非常感謝 CNH 團隊以強勁的方式結束了 2023 年，同時（聽不清楚）我們在 2024 年將這家公司提升到了另一個水平。我們準備好的發言就到此結束。本，請您開通提問線好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Mig Dobre calling from Baird.

（操作員說明） 第一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 打來的 Mig Dobre 電話。

I guess, Scott, my first question is related to your comments on dealer inventories, this is obviously one of the points of controversy, I guess, in the space. And can you give us a little more perspective in terms of maybe quantify the headwind that destocking would have for you in both segments? And kind of how you're thinking about first half versus second half?

我想，斯科特，我的第一個問題與您對經銷商庫存的評論有關，我想這顯然是該領域的爭議點之一。您能否為我們提供更多的視角，以量化去庫存為您在這兩個領域帶來的阻力？您如何看待上半場和下半場？

Yes. We don't -- I'll start with the easier one. Stefano and his team on the construction side really don't have much -- we were pleasantly surprised with the demand in the fourth quarter, which helped manage inventory in that segment a little bit better. We probably got room in South America where we've got really lean construction inventory. So overall, I think construction is in reasonably good shape.

是的。我們不——我將從更容易的開始。斯特凡諾和他在建築方面的團隊確實沒有太多——我們對第四季度的需求感到驚喜，這有助於更好地管理該領域的庫存。我們可能在南美洲有空間，那裡的建築庫存非常精益。總的來說，我認為建築狀況相當良好。

And as I said in the prepared remarks, it's just pockets that we have in the ag side of things. We're still working through low-horsepower tractors. We're making progress, we have a little bit of work to do there. Europe, there's some -- that market slowed a little bit in some regions as we've got a little more work to do in large ag there. But generally speaking, there's -- and again, a few pockets in North America where we'd like. I would say in aggregate, it's well below $1 billion of work we have to do overall on dealer inventory. And we've got clear plans, both with retail execution and production management to make sure that we get that addressed as quickly as we can.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，這只是我們在農業方面的口袋。我們仍在研究低馬力拖拉機。我們正在取得進展，我們還有一些工作要做。歐洲，一些地區的市場略有放緩，因為我們在那裡的大型農業領域還有更多的工作要做。但總的來說，北美有一些我們想要的地方。我想說的是，總的來說，我們在經銷商庫存方面所做的工作遠低於 10 億美元。我們在零售執行和生產管理方面都有明確的計劃，以確保我們盡快解決這個問題。

But it's relatively less work to do, especially in Brazil, where I said that the team did a really nice job of helping us react quickly. So as that market turns, that will be -- and it's got to turn at some point. We'll be well positioned to restock there.

但要做的工作相對較少，尤其是在巴西，我說過團隊在幫助我們快速反應方面做得非常好。因此，隨著市場的轉變，情況將會發生——並且必須在某個時候發生轉變。我們將能夠很好地在那裡補貨。

My follow-up is on how you're thinking about the ag cycle here. You commented on the fact that farm income is down back to maybe below a 20-year average. How do you think about the magnitude and the duration of this down cycle? Is it different than what you've experienced in the past? And if so, why?

我的後續行動是關於您如何看待這裡的農業週期。您評論了農場收入可能回落至低於 20 年平均值的事實。您如何看待本次下行週期的規模和持續時間？這和你過去的經驗有什麼不同嗎？如果是這樣，為什麼？

Well, I think the positives and -- I repeated the press release that came out about North American farm income. But remember, farmer balance sheets are still in reasonably good shape, that's helpful. The age of equipment is still in -- is quite high, which is helpful. And the advancement of technology, which just dramatically improves productivity and yield and therefore, dramatically benefits the farmer. Those are all tailwinds offsetting it.

嗯，我認為積極的一面——我重複了有關北美農場收入的新聞稿。但請記住，農民的資產負債表仍處於相當良好的狀態，這是有幫助的。設備的年齡仍然相當高，這是有幫助的。科技的進步極大地提高了生產力和產量，從而使農民受益匪淺。這些都是抵消它的有利因素。

So the other thing is you're not starting this with tremendous amount of used inventory, tremendous amount of overall. So we're starting from a better place. Soft commodity prices are likely to be down for a couple of years, and I think we are just expecting the industry be flattish from here for a little while. But I'm not expecting none of our projections internally suggest this is going to be another significant step down like we saw maybe 15 years ago. The setup is very different from that.

所以另一件事是，你一開始就沒有大量的已使用庫存，總體來說是巨大的。所以我們從一個更好的地方開始。軟商品價格可能會下降幾年，我認為我們只是預計該行業將在一段時間內保持穩定。但我並不認為我們的內部預測表明這將是我們 15 年前看到的另一個重大下降。設定與此非常不同。

The next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase calling from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行 Nicole DeBlase 的電話。

Maybe just starting with the quarterly cadence. You kind of mentioned doing some more work on dealer inventories in the first half. It doesn't sound like there's like a crazy amount of work to do there, but some. I mean does that mean that if we kind of compare the way you see 2024 with a more normal seasonal build, one half could be a little bit lower than we typically see as a contribution to the full year? If you could just kind of talk through that.

也許只是從季度節奏開始。您提到上半年在經銷商庫存方面做了更多工作。聽起來不像有大量的工作要做，但確實有一些。我的意思是，這是否意味著，如果我們將 2024 年的情況與更正常的季節性建設進行比較，一半可能會比我們通常認為的全年貢獻略低一些？如果你能談談這個問題就好了。

Yes. We definitely expect a tougher Q1 definitely compared to last year. Q2 a lot will depend on how the demand will evolve and what level of dealer inventories we will have and what kind of demand will be there. And then definitely, Q3 and Q4 should be an easy comparative with this year with 2023. Yes, Q1 is low and probably will be -- it's typically low and probably will be lower and then is the usual seasonality.

是的。與去年相比，我們肯定預計第一季會更加艱難。第二季很大程度取決於需求將如何發展、經銷商庫存水準以及需求類型。當然，第三和第四季度應該可以很容易地與今年和2023 年進行比較。是的，第一季度很低，而且可能會很低——通常很低，而且可能會更低，然後是通常的季節性。

And then just going back on pricing, I know you guys gave the expectation for flat to up 2%. First, is that kind of similar in both ag and construction? And then second, what are you seeing with respect to -- and what do you expect to do with respect to dealer incentives in 2024 as demand is a bit weaker than '23?

然後回到定價，我知道你們的預期是上漲 2%。首先，農業和建築業是否相似？其次，由於需求比 23 年略弱，您對 2024 年經銷商獎勵措施有何看法？

Yes. I would say it's similar for ag and construction. Of course, construction is a much more competitive market in terms of number of competitors and in terms of market dynamics. So we have less visibility there if you want.

是的。我想說農業和建築業也是如此。當然，從競爭對手數量和市場動態來看，建築業是一個競爭更激烈的市場。所以如果你願意的話，我們在那裡的能見度會比較低。

In terms of retail incentive -- what we call retail incentive discretionary spending with the dealers for sure. Support the financing will be relevant across the year. And as we have announced, we started being more generous, if you want, on dealer incentives in the Q4 and will likely will continue to be at least in the first half of the year.

在零售激勵方面－我們稱之為零售激勵經銷商的可自由支配支出。支持融資將貫穿全年。正如我們所宣布的，如果您願意的話，我們在第四季度開始對經銷商激勵措施更加慷慨，並且至少在今年上半年可能會繼續如此。

The next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher calling from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團史蒂文費雪 (Steven Fisher) 的電話。

I know Oddone you just said that Q1 was likely to be tougher. I'm wondering if we could just maybe put a little more framework around that. I'm curious, do you think, particularly in Latin America, I mean, it should be strong double digit down 20-plus percent year-over-year in the first quarter and then just kind of gets better over the course of the year? And then I guess just more fundamentally, what happens, do you think over the course of the year in Brazil? Is your forecasting, assuming that farmer confidence improves such as the buying activity picks up? Or is it just sort of more easier comparisons as the year goes along?

我知道 Oddone 你剛剛說過 Q1 可能會更艱難。我想知道我們是否可以圍繞它建立更多的框架。我很好奇，你認為，特別是在拉丁美洲，我的意思是，第一季的成長率應該是強勁的兩位數，比去年同期下降 20% 以上，然後在這一年中會有所改善？然後我想更根本的是，您認為巴西這一年會發生什麼事？您的預測是假設農民信心改善（例如購買活動增加）嗎？或者只是隨著時間的推移，比較變得更容易了？

Starting from South America and from Brazil, I think we stopped making detailed forecast about what's happening there because we see a disconnect between the fundamentals and the behavior of the customer. And that's why we have adjusted our dealer inventories significantly in the second half of last year. We are in constant dialogue with our dealer network. We have a very, very, I would say, mature conversation with them. And we are observing day by day what's happening on the market. But we don't have a large forecast -- I mean a large expectation for growth there. The -- yes, I mean, sales will likely be down double digit in the first quarter globally, and then we will see after that, how the market evolves.

從南美洲和巴西開始，我認為我們不再對那裡發生的事情進行詳細預測，因為我們看到基本面和客戶行為之間存在脫節。這就是為什麼我們在去年下半年大幅調整了經銷商庫存。我們與我們的經銷商網路保持持續對話。我想說，我們與他們進行了非常非常成熟的對話。我們每天都在觀察市場上發生的事情。但我們沒有太大的預測——我的意思是對那裡的成長有很大的期望。是的，我的意思是，第一季全球銷售額可能會下降兩位數，然後我們將看到市場如何演變。

Yes. It's also important to know, Steven, that our cost actions that we've been working on will gain momentum throughout the year. So we'll get benefit in Q1, but materially more benefit as we go throughout the year just because we're getting more maturity and better execution as that comes through. So that also affects a little bit of the calendarization.

是的。史蒂文，同樣重要的是要知道我們一直在努力的成本行動將在全年獲得動力。因此，我們將在第一季獲得收益，但隨著全年的發展，我們將獲得更大的收益，因為我們將變得更加成熟和更好的執行力。所以這也會影響一些日曆化。

And then Scott, maybe a bigger picture question for you. I mean this year, you shouldn't be wrestling with a pandemic, the supply chain crisis along UAW strike, a delisting much of your cost actions are formulated and a lot of actions. I'm not trying to jinx you or anything, but it seems like this could be the first year where you can kind of choose what to focus on. And I was going to ask you what your focus is really going to be, but you did in your prepared remarks talk about our strategic priority. So maybe the question is more around what's your confidence in execution this year? And what kind of benchmarks should really we'd be using at this time next year to kind of gauge how that all went?

然後斯科特，也許對你來說是一個更大的問題。我的意思是，今年，你不應該與流行病、UAW罷工帶來的供應鏈危機、退市等問題作鬥爭，你制定了很多成本行動，並採取了很多行動。我並不是想給你帶來厄運或任何事情，但這似乎可能是你可以選擇關注什麼的第一年。我本來想問你真正的重點是什麼，但你在準備好的發言中確實談到了我們的策略重點。所以也許問題更多的是你對今年的執行力有什麼信心？明年這個時候我們應該用什麼樣的基準來衡量這一切進展如何？

I think what the last three years, and you kind of highlighted some of the (expletive) we've dealt with, but what it's done is given me the ability to see how strong this team is and how well they execute. And as we put in some more of our lean work and CBS and the culture change -- I mean, really part of the reason our decrementals are so much better is just the work that this team has done to get in better positions. So I'm immensely more positive on what we can do regardless of what happens externally.

我認為過去三年，你強調了我們處理過的一些（咒罵）問題，但所做的事情讓我能夠看到這支團隊有多強大以及他們的執行力有多好。當我們投入更多的精實工作和 CBS 以及文化變革時——我的意思是，我們的減量工作如此出色的部分原因實際上是這個團隊為獲得更好的位置所做的工作。因此，無論外部發生什麼，我對我們能做的事情都更加積極。

You are forgetting that there is a U.S. election it's going to be -- who knows what that's going to be like. But we put a plan together that we feel comfortable we can execute. And I believe you'll just see the fundamentals which really show up in margins, just getting better and better as we continue to work through this. So I'm immensely confident in how this team is prepared to get through a down year in top line sales and just prove that this isn't an anomaly but really what we're capable of throughout the cycle.

你忘了美國即將舉行大選——誰知道那會是什麼樣子。但我們制定了一個我們覺得可以執行的計劃。我相信您會看到真正體現在利潤率中的基本面，隨著我們繼續努力解決這個問題，它會變得越來越好。因此，我對這個團隊如何準備好度過營收下滑的一年充滿信心，並證明這不是異常現象，而是我們在整個週期中真正有能力做到的。

The next question coming from David Raso calling from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。請繼續。

I'm trying to get a sense of the cadence of the margins year-over-year. The full year is implied about 70 bps lower from a business segment level, including the corporate expense. So I'm just trying to understand what the first half commentary, especially the first quarter. On a year-over-year basis, can you give us some sense of do we take a lot more than a 70 bps hit in the first half of the year and then it balances out? Because I'm trying to get a bigger picture where the margins may be exiting '24. At least what's in your guide?

我試著了解年復一年的利潤節奏。全年業績預計比業務部門水準（包括公司費用）低約 70 個基點。所以我只是想了解上半場的評論，尤其是第一節。與去年同期相比，您能否告訴我們，今年上半年我們是否遭受了超過 70 個基點的打擊，然後又恢復平衡了？因為我試著從更大的角度了解 24 年利潤可能會消失的情況。至少你的指南裡面有什麼？

Yes. We don't have -- I mean, we're not giving the detailed guidance by quarter. And quite frankly, we are reviewing our forecast -- reforecast of the year right now. So I wouldn't even have it.

是的。我們沒有——我的意思是，我們不會按季度提供詳細的指導。坦白說，我們正在審查我們的預測——今年的重新預測。所以我什至不會擁有它。

But if you think of what is playing into, right? It's -- we say that sales will be lower in the first quarter, and we say that we have cost programs that are incrementally getting in throughout the year, right? The impact of them is getting it throughout the year. So from that likely will have a progression throughout the year, and we will have a tough Q1.

但如果你想想正在發生什麼，對嗎？我們說第一季的銷售額將會下降，而且我們說我們的成本計劃會在全年中逐步實施，對吧？他們的影響貫穿全年。因此，從這一點來看，全年可能都會取得進展，我們將度過一個艱難的第一季。

Okay. So basically (inaudible).

好的。所以基本上（聽不清楚）。

We got a combination of lower sales and the cost problems not getting in completely in Q1.

我們在第一季遇到了銷售額下降和成本問題未完全解決的問題。

Okay. So the drag of 70 bps for the year, a little more than that in the first half and a little less than that in the second half is a fair generalization.

好的。因此，今年70個基點的拖累，比上半年多一點，比下半年少一點，是個公平的概括。

And I apologize, maybe I missed it in the beginning of the call. The total savings for the year baked in from the two programs, right, the $550 million total COGS program in the 10% to 15% SG&A. What's in for '24 in total? I heard the SG&A number. What do you have in for the COGS reduction number for the year? Around $300 million?

我很抱歉，也許我在通話開始時錯過了。今年的總節省來自這兩個計劃，即 10% 至 15% SG&A 的總 COGS 計劃 5.5 億美元。 '24 總共有什麼內容？我聽到了 SG&A 數字。您對本年度的銷貨成本減少數字有何了解？大約3億美元？

We have -- Yes, roughly. Yes, a little bit more than that. Of course, that will be compensated. That will be offset by some labor cost inflation and other cost inflation, right? You won't say in the bucket of product cost, you will see all of that. You will see the net impact.

我們有——是的，大致如此。是的，比這多一點。當然，這是會得到補償的。這將被一些勞動成本通膨和其他成本通膨所抵消，對吧？你不會說在產品成本中，你會看到所有這些。您將看到淨影響。

So basically, the total programs combined about $460 million of savings. So it's sort of like a down 10% revenue, down 40% decrementals, but then we get the cost savings to get the decrementals back to about 18%, 19%. Real quick, the share count to start the year. I'm having a hard time getting down to the 1,250 million share count for the full year...

基本上，所有計劃總共節省了約 4.6 億美元。所以這有點像是收入下降了 10%，減量下降了 40%，但隨後我們節省了成本，使減量回到了 18%、19% 左右。真快，今年開始的股票盤點。我很難統計全年 12.5 億股的數量…

So as we said, I mean I don't have the starting point in front of me, but what we said is the 1.250 billion reflects the current share buyback program that we have. So basically, the completion of the [1 billion] that we announced back in November, which we plan to complete by basically at the end of this month because we -- as of Friday last week, we had both about $935 million worth of shares on the existing share buyback program.

正如我們所說，我的意思是我面前沒有起點，但我們所說的 12.5 億反映了我們目前的股票回購計畫。所以基本上，我們在 11 月宣布的 [10 億] 的完成，我們計劃基本上在本月底完成，因為截至上週五，我們都擁有價值約 9.35 億美元的股票關於現有的股票回購計劃。

The next question coming from Angel Castillo calling from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

This is Grace on for Angela. I think in the last quarter, you mentioned you have the order books opening in the first half 2024. So could you give us some updates and more color on your order book trends and how these are filling up across the various ag and construction products?

這是安吉拉的格蕾絲。我想在上個季度，您提到您將在2024 年上半年開放訂單。那麼您能否給我們提供一些有關您的訂單趨勢的最新信息和更多信息，以及這些趨勢如何在各種農業和建築產品中填補？

Yes. we said on the prepared remarks that we've got orders through Q3 in North America, less so in other regions. But we're really less focused on order. I mean we've got -- the demand for our cash products are extremely high, but we're less focused on how far out the order book. I mean I looked at the chart yesterday, it's filling up nicely. We're very comfortable with where it is. But it's -- even if an order is out there from a dealer, we're managing that dealer inventory level, ensuring that our shipments were -- as you heard from our prepared remarks, most of our comments are related to the retail execution. We're really striving to ensure that we support our dealers in driving retail to the end customers so they can get the benefits of these products much more so than we are about collecting a bunch of orders that we're not sure that they're going to need.

是的。我們在準備好的評論中表示，我們在北美第三季收到了訂單，但其他地區的訂單較少。但我們確實不太關注秩序。我的意思是，我們對現金產品的需求非常高，但我們不太關注訂單的情況。我的意思是我昨天看了圖表，它填得很好。我們對它所處的位置感到非常滿意。但即使是經銷商發出訂單，我們也會管理經銷商的庫存水平，確保我們的發貨量——正如您從我們準備好的評論中聽到的那樣，我們的大部分評論都與零售執行有關。我們確實在努力確保我們支持我們的經銷商推動終端客戶的零售，這樣他們就可以從這些產品中獲得更多的好處，而不是收集一堆我們不確定他們是否是的訂單。會需要。

So the demand is high. And again, I highlighted the CR11 and what that product is going to be. And it's interesting, I literally think it will be years before we meet demand for that product when it's launching. And we're seeing the same thing from our new Steiger 4-wheel drive tractors. Just these things, these high-end extremely productive products or just in high demand. But overall, I think our order book is in good shape. Demand for most of our core cash crop products are in good shape, and we're pleased with how that's setting up in an industry that's going to be down year-over-year.

所以要求很高。我再次強調了 CR11 以及該產品的未來。有趣的是，我確實認為我們需要數年時間才能在該產品推出時滿足對該產品的需求。我們在新型 Steiger 四輪驅動拖拉機上也看到了同樣的情況。就是這些東西，這些高端的、生產力極高的產品或只是需求量很大。但總的來說，我認為我們的訂單狀況良好。對我們大部分核心經濟作物產品的需求狀況良好，我們對在一個將逐年下降的行業中的情況感到滿意。

The next question comes from the line of Seth Weber calling from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行賽斯韋伯 (Seth Weber) 的電話。

Scott, I wanted to just follow up on your comment about European ag market, where it sounds like there's a little bit of extra inventory there. I was wondering if you could just give us a little bit more color there, whether it's by country or by product type that you specifically call out and whether that's crops versus dairy livestock, anything like that?

斯科特，我想跟進您對歐洲農業市場的評論，聽起來那裡有一些額外的庫存。我想知道您是否可以給我們更多的信息，無論是按國家還是按您特別指出的產品類型，以及是否是農作物與奶牛牲畜，諸如此類？

I'd say it's overall sentiment is really driving it. And that -- I mean you look at the news and I think farmers are expressing their dissatisfaction with some of the government actions. And when they're driving and protesting, they're not planting and harvesting. So it's just -- the overall sentiment is not great in Europe. And that's what we're seeing. Again, we're seeing improvements in our penetration of our precision offerings, and I think the team is doing a really good job of executing that. We're setting up new dealers in certain regions, and we're just proud of the way they're handling managing the brands there, but just the overall sentiment in Europe is down a little bit, and that's reflected in how we're looking at the region.

我想說，整體情緒確實在推動它。我的意思是，你看看新聞，我認為農民正在表達他們對政府某些行為的不滿。當他們開車抗議時，他們並不是在播種和收割。所以，歐洲的整體情緒並不好。這就是我們所看到的。再次，我們看到我們的精密產品的滲透率有所提高，我認為團隊在執行這一點方面做得非常好。我們正在某些地區設立新的經銷商，我們對他們在那裡管理品牌的方式感到自豪，但歐洲的整體情緒略有下降，這反映在我們的表現上看看該地區。

And that's what's driving us to put a little more focus on dealer inventories there so we can get that to a more healthy level as we are in an environment, interest rates are presumably coming down, but they're still a little bit high. So we feel like if we can help our dealers get that inventory down, we're both in better shape. But that -- Europe, it's not a crisis situation. It's just an overall sentiment is not ideal right now.

這就是促使我們更加關注那裡的經銷商庫存的原因，這樣我們就可以將其達到一個更健康的水平，因為我們所處的環境是，利率可能會下降，但仍然有點高。因此，我們認為，如果我們能夠幫助我們的經銷商降低庫存，我們雙方的狀況就會更好。但歐洲並不是危機局勢。只是目前整體情緒並不理想。

And then maybe just on the Precision platform. I think you called out north of $1 billion in revenue in 2023. Would you expect that to grow in 2024? And any sort of order of magnitude of growth that we're looking at this year?

然後也許只是在 Precision 平台上。我認為您預計 2023 年收入將超過 10 億美元。您預計這一數字會在 2024 年增長嗎？今年我們預計會出現何種數量級的成長？

Well, the magnitude is -- I'm not going to comment on because as our overall volume comes down, it's -- that's less precision offerings we're selling in those solutions. But we are switching from Trimble to in-house solutions, which is going to be a nice benefit both on the sales and margin side. for the year. And overall, I think we'll be back over $1 billion this year. Just not sure how much.

好吧，我不會對此發表評論，因為隨著我們的整體銷量下降，我們在這些解決方案中銷售的產品精度較低。但我們正在從 Trimble 轉向內部解決方案，這在銷售和利潤方面都將帶來很大的好處。今年。總的來說，我認為今年我們的收入將超過 10 億美元。只是不確定多少。

The next question comes from Michael Feniger calling from Bank of America.

下一個問題是來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger 打來的電話。

Scott, I wanted to ask, obviously, you guys talked about pricing this year, getting some of those inventories out. And you kind of talked about how there's likely not another big step down in this market, maybe flattish for a while. So just trying to get a sense, Scott, does that mean we could see a return to normal on the pricing front as we turn the page to 2025? And should we be thinking that price versus cost spread for you in 2025 really starts to widen as the price actions get your inventories more in line and some of the cost savings that you have in these two programs, we start to build. So I'm just trying to get a sense of how we think about that as we get to 2025.

史考特，我想問，顯然，你們討論了今年的定價，並拿出了一些庫存。您談到了這個市場可能不會再大幅下跌，可能會暫時保持穩定。史考特，想了解一下，這是否意味著當我們翻過這一頁到 2025 年時，我們可以看到定價方面恢復正常？我們是否應該認為，隨著價格行動使您的庫存更加一致，並且我們在這兩個計劃中節省了一些成本，到 2025 年，您的價格與成本價差確實開始擴大。所以我只是想了解一下到 2025 年我們是如何看待這個問題的。

Yes. No, that's -- the way we're looking at it is, remember, and depending on the region because, obviously, Brazil had much higher inflation, so they got hit with more price early. But overall, we -- the prices are up many, many tens of percent, I mean on -- overall, so prices have come up somewhat dramatically. But also our costs have gone up rather dramatically. So we're keeping that in line. What we started to see in the fourth quarter is us bend that cost curve down and the pricing maintains level. We've said it's going to be moderate price next year, but we believe that we are back to a normal. You get that 2% to 3% price when products come out. It's going to be a little bit less this year just because we think managing through the dealer inventory.

是的。不，那是 - 我們看待它的方式是，記住，這取決於地區，因為顯然，巴西的通貨膨脹率要高得多，所以他們很早就受到了更高的價格打擊。但總的來說，我們 - 價格上漲了很多，很多百分之幾十，我的意思是 - 總的來說，所以價格已經大幅上漲。但我們的成本也大幅上升。所以我們會保持一致。我們在第四季度開始看到的是，我們將成本曲線向下彎曲，定價保持在水平。我們說過明年價格會適中，但我們相信我們會恢復正常。產品上市時，您可以享受 2% 到 3% 的價格。今年的數量會少一些，因為我們認為要透過經銷商庫存進行管理。

But we think that environment of us getting regular 2% to 3% price is really coming back especially as we get -- especially as we get through the back half of the year is that's what we'll just continue to see. But matched with that is just this benefit of getting aggressively after costs, which should keep that differential between price cost in a very positive way for us for quite some time.

但我們認為，我們獲得常規 2% 至 3% 價格的環境確實正在回歸，尤其是當我們度過今年下半年時，這就是我們將繼續看到的情況。但與此相匹配的是積極追求成本的好處，這應該會讓我們在相當長的一段時間內以非常積極的方式保持價格成本之間的差異。

And obviously, the decrementals are more resilient than normal given these cost reduction efforts I'm curious, Scott, maybe this will be touched on at the Investor Day. Like when we finally get to the other side of this, does this mean we should be seeing better incrementals as volumes at some point do recover? Just curious how we should kind of think about that as we kind of go through this downturn in the cycle and come out the other end?

顯然，考慮到這些降低成本的努力，減量比正常情況更具彈性，我很好奇，斯科特，也許這會在投資者日談到。就像當我們最終到達另一邊時，這是否意味著隨著交易量在某個時候恢復，我們應該看到更好的增量？只是好奇，當我們經歷這個週期的低迷並走出另一端時，我們應該如何思考這個問題？

Well, that is 100% what we are striving to do. And a lot of this cost work I mean, I'm really proud of the team and the work that they've done, but most of the benefit is years out, not here. And we get -- we spent a good bit of money on our tech investments, but the work that Mark Kermisch and his team are doing to accelerate that penetration is just a gift that keeps getting in the future. The strategic sourcing is beneficial this year, but incrementally, significantly more beneficial in the out years. So we certainly expect -- and quite honestly, we need to, right? If you look at the industry leaders, our margins are notably lower and we've got to close that gap.

嗯，這就是我們 100% 努力做的事情。我的意思是，很多這些成本工作，我真的為團隊和他們所做的工作感到自豪，但大部分好處是幾年後的事，而不是現在。我們在科技投資上花了很多錢，但 Mark Kermisch 和他的團隊為加速滲透所做的工作只是未來不斷獲得的禮物。今年的策略採購是有利的，但在未來幾年中，策略採購的效益會逐漸顯著提高。所以我們當然期望——老實說，我們需要，對吧？如果你看看行業領導者，我們的利潤率明顯較低，我們必須縮小這一差距。

And Scott, just last one. Obviously, I think your industrial net debt was zero because the guidance of free cash flow of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. I'm just curious, you guys are trying to execute these two big cost reduction programs. How are you kind of thinking about the free cash flow, where your balance sheet is? And obviously, where stock is trading now? Or are you starting to lean a little bit more towards potentially some M&A as you guys are trying to accelerate some of those other initiatives on the growth side? Just curious if you could touch on that.

斯科特，只是最後一位。顯然，我認為你的工業淨債務為零，因為自由現金流的指引為 12 億至 14 億美元。我只是好奇，你們正試圖執行這兩項大型成本削減計劃。您如何看待自由現金流以及資產負債表的位置？顯然，股票現在在哪裡交易？或者，當你們試圖加速成長方面的其他一些舉措時，你們是否開始更傾向於一些潛在的併購？只是好奇你是否能觸及這一點。

Yes. No, I think Oddone clearly listed that out if you go back and read the transcript about how we're prioritizing that. We're putting a lot of focus on cash flow and want to make sure that we continue to drive that as a higher percent of net income. But we are leaning in much more heavily than we have historically on the share buybacks. And I think that was necessary as we went through the transition last year, but really encouraged by the Board's support to put out another $0.5 million there. But it's really investing in the company to bring products and technologies to our customers.

是的。不，我認為如果你回去閱讀有關我們如何優先考慮這一點的文字記錄，我認為奧多恩已經清楚地列出了這一點。我們非常關注現金流，並希望確保我們繼續推動現金流佔淨利潤的比例更高。但我們對股票回購的依賴程度比歷史上大得多。我認為這是必要的，因為我們去年經歷了過渡，但董事會的支持讓我們深受鼓舞，為此又投入了 50 萬美元。但它實際上是對公司進行投資，將產品和技術帶給我們的客戶。

That is our first priority. But when the stock is trading below intrinsic value, and we believe it is now, we're not going to hesitate to continue to buy shares. So I think that seeing that -- the support from the Board for this capital allocation process, which I believe is beneficial to our customers and to our shareholders is a positive.

這是我們的首要任務。但是，當股票交易價格低於內在價值時（我們相信現在就是這樣），我們會毫不猶豫地繼續購買股票。因此，我認為董事會對資本分配流程的支持是正面的，我認為這對我們的客戶和股東有利。

We'll take the next question from Timothy Thein calling from Citi.

我們將回答花旗蒂莫西·泰恩 (Timothy Thein) 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe, Scott, the first one just on the outlook for high horsepower tractor industry sales in North America down 10% to 15%. How are you -- what do you have in terms of your production plans? I know the output from Racine and Fargo has kind of been a little spotty there. So what are you thinking in terms of just, I guess, overall company dealer inventory and your production plans in that important product category?

也許，史考特第一個就預測北美大馬力拖拉機產業銷量將下降 10% 至 15%。你怎麼樣－你的生產計畫是什麼？我知道拉辛和法哥的產出有點參差不齊。那麼，我想，就公司經銷商的整體庫存以及該重要產品類別的生產計劃而言，您有何想法？

Yes. We did -- and again, really proud of what the team at Racine did to get that production back up and getting the quality right as we came out of the strike. But really, it's not overall one category of high horsepower tractors. I think the Magnums coming out of Racine, we're probably where we want to be on dealer inventory now. So it's about driving retail demand, and I think that's where our focus will be.

是的。我們做到了——再一次，我們對拉辛團隊為恢復生產並在我們擺脫罷工後保證品質所做的努力感到非常自豪。但實際上，它總體上並不是高馬力拖拉機的一類。我認為從拉辛出來的 Magnums 可能是我們現在經銷商庫存中想要的位置。所以這是為了推動零售需求，我認為這就是我們的重點。

On the Steiger is coming out at Fargo, that product, the technology, the unbelievable horsepower is really something that will be struggling, I think, for all of '24 and probably into 2025 to meet global demand for that product. So I think it's really -- innovation sells, technology sells, and that's where we're seeing it. But I think overall, North American high horsepower tractors are going to be down a little bit less than the industry, but certainly not robust.

我認為，在法哥推出的 Steiger 上，該產品、技術和令人難以置信的馬力確實將在 24 年甚至 2025 年期間苦苦掙扎，以滿足全球對該產品的需求。所以我認為這確實是——創新銷售，技術銷售，這就是我們所看到的。但我認為總體而言，北美大馬力拖拉機的下降幅度將略低於該行業，但肯定不會強勁。

And then this is a bit just kind of nitpicky. But on the [bridge].

這有點挑剔。但在[橋]上。

Then don't ask.

那就別問了。

All right. I'll use the different -- a profound question. For the ag EBIT bridge here in the fourth quarter on, call it, 8-ish percent volume decline, you had the $255 million headwind. So upward to 60%. Obviously, mix is a component in that. What do you think -- and again, not to the nearest decimal place, but what's an appropriate range as we think about just kind of volume leverage through '24, I presumably stopped 60%. But any help on that just in terms of what that kind of what we should think about if assuming mix or maybe mix has continued to be a headwind and just any help on that.

好的。我將使用不同的——一個深刻的問題。對於第四季的農業息稅前利潤橋樑來說，銷量下降了 8% 左右，你面臨著 2.55 億美元的逆風。所以上升到60%。顯然，混合是其中的一個組成部分。你怎麼看——再說一次，不是精確到小數點後一位，但是當我們考慮到 24 年的成交量槓桿時，合適的範圍是多少，我大概停止了 60%。但是，如果假設混合或可能混合，我們應該考慮什麼，對此的任何幫助仍然是一個逆風，並且對此有任何幫助。

I will say much closer to the 30% than the 60% in terms of the volume impact. On the volume and mix impact.

我想說的是，就數量影響而言，更接近 30%，而不是 60%。對音量和混音的影響。

The next question comes from the line of Daniela Costa calling from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的丹妮拉·科斯塔 (Daniela Costa)。

I have two questions as well. One more -- sort of to understand a bit better like your production set up at the moment in the U.S., you mentioned the election recently and there's lots of question marks about what happened to potential tariffs from any inputs coming from outside the U.S. How are you set up now, you're pretty much self-sufficient within the U.S.? Or do you import much inputs and just understanding what the implications baked in potentially for that in your margin? And then I'll ask the second one more on the bridge for '24.

我也有兩個問題。再一個 - 有點像您目前在美國建立的生產，您提到了最近的選舉，並且對於來自美國以外的任何投入的潛在關稅發生了什麼存在很多問號。你現在成立了，你在美國基本上可以自給自足了嗎？或者您導入了大量投入，只是了解其對您的利潤可能產生的影響？然後我會再向橋上的第二個詢問「24」。

Yes. You know as a very global company, we strive to keep production in region. We just don't do that everywhere. Low horsepower tractors, for example, predominantly come from Asia. But we are -- we do -- we ship -- some of our tractors come from Europe and some come from India. But generally speaking, most of our volume is in region.

是的。您知道，作為一家非常全球化的公司，我們努力將生產保持在該地區。我們只是不是到處都這樣做。例如，低馬力拖拉機主要來自亞洲。但我們——我們確實——我們運送——我們的拖拉機有些來自歐洲，有些來自印度。但總的來說，我們的大部分銷量都在區域內。

Okay. So no big impact from that.

好的。所以這沒有太大影響。

And please just -- and I know -- don't read too much in what's said in the run-up to a U.S. election. There's a lot of stuff that is thrown out that is not going to be followed through. And I think some of the tariff thing comments that have come out, the tariffs are ultimately a tax on U.S. consumers. So what sounds right politically and a campaign probably isn't something that they're going to do no matter what happens in the election cycle. So that -- I just wouldn't put too much weight on that.

我知道，請不要太多閱讀美國大選前夕的言論。有很多東西被丟掉了，不會被繼續執行。我認為已經出現的一些關稅問題評論，關稅最終是對美國消費者徵稅。因此，無論選舉週期發生什麼，他們都不會去做那些在政治和競選活動上聽起來正確的事情。所以——我不會太看重這一點。

Just on the guidance on the margins, the 14% to 15% and the 5% to 6% in 2024. I guess given what you've said at the beginning regarding dealer inventories and that $1 billion that you still needed to get through that you're probably going to underproduce this year. So is there an impact on the margin from underproduction? And is sort of trying to get to what would have been the real margin if you weren't underproducing this year?

只是關於利潤率的指導，2024 年為14% 至15% 和5% 至6%。我猜考慮到您一開始所說的有關經銷商庫存的內容以及您仍需要10 億美元來度過這一時期今年你可能會產量不足。那麼，生產不足會對利潤率產生影響嗎？如果今年沒有產量不足，是否會嘗試獲得實際利潤？

There's absolutely absorption issues when you produce less. Now again, we were not -- none of this decline surprised us. We were early on identifying that we needed to take cost out, and that includes in our plants. So we adjusted production, we've gotten that down. And that's part of the reason our decrementals are as good as they are, is because we've taken a lot of that cost out. So I don't know that it's fair to say that we would be -- I mean, it's obviously, we have better margins if volume was flat, but I think we did a lot of the work to offset that already.

當產量減少時，絕對會出現吸收問題。現在，我們再次感到驚訝——這種下降並不讓我們感到驚訝。我們很早就意識到我們需要降低成本，其中包括我們工廠的成本。所以我們調整了生產，我們已經把它降下來了。這就是我們的減量如此出色的部分原因，因為我們已經去掉了很多成本。所以我不知道這樣說是否公平——我的意思是，很明顯，如果銷量持平，我們的利潤率會更高，但我認為我們已經做了很多工作來抵消這一點。

The next question comes from the line of Kristen Owen calling from Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自克里斯汀歐文 (Kristen Owen) 從奧本海默 (Oppenheimer) 打來的電話。

My question was really a function of what Tim asked about your ability to continue to outperform the market. You mentioned, Scott, in your prepared remarks that, that was something that happened in 2023. You talked a little bit about getting ahead on the production, just how you continue to view your outlook relative to industry in 2024. You've touched on that, I'll just ask you to expand. And while I'm here, I'll ask you my next question, which is about the streamlined senior leadership team announcement. I understand that, that wasn't really so much of a cost effort, more of a focused one. So if you could expand on that decision as well.

我的問題其實是提姆詢問你是否有能力繼續跑贏大盤的問題。斯科特，您在準備好的發言中提到，那是 2023 年發生的事情。您談到了製作方面的進展，以及您如何繼續看待 2024 年相對於行業的前景。您談到了那我就請你擴展一下。當我在這裡時，我會問你下一個問題，這是關於精簡的高階領導團隊的公告。我明白，這不是真正的成本投入，而是一種專注的投入。所以如果你也可以擴展這個決定。

My core belief is this game is about product brand and distribution. And if you look at the portfolio and how Derek and Stefano are running their respective businesses, we are seeing the benefits of improvements in each of those areas.

我的核心信念是這個遊戲是關於產品品牌和分銷的。如果您查看投資組合以及德里克和斯特凡諾如何經營各自的業務，我們將看到每個領域的改進所帶來的好處。

We tend to focus mostly on products. We talked about the 73 new products introduced across the company last year. And with the significant increase in R&D investments, not only on the iron side but also on tech, the continued improvement and integration of advanced technologies in our products ultimately benefits our customers, and I think that's real. But that's the product side.

我們往往主要關注產品。我們討論了去年公司推出的 73 種新產品。隨著研發投資的大幅增加，不僅在鐵方面，而且在技術方面，先進技術在我們產品中的不斷改進和整合最終使我們的客戶受益，我認為這是真實的。但這是產品方面。

On the brand side, remember, the Case IH and New Holland and case construction brands are just really, really strong. And we're trying to leverage those as best we can. I think the teams and the regions do a really, really good job with that.

在品牌方面，請記住，Case IH 和 New Holland 以及 Case Construction 品牌非常非常強大。我們正在盡力利用這些資源。我認為團隊和地區在這方面做得非常非常好。

And then distribution, we're trying to be good partners with managing dealer inventory, but we're also raising the expectations for dealer execution. We've got enhanced control rooms going in, so they can better manage. We think overall, that combination gives us the ability. We demonstrated that we can do it in '23 and we're just going to get better and better in those three categories over time, which gives us the ability to continue to outperform. And again it's hard work, it's a very competitive industry, but I like how we're positioned to compete.

然後是分銷，我們正在努力成為管理經銷商庫存的良好合作夥伴，但我們也提高了對經銷商執行力的期望。我們已經建立了增強型控制室，以便他們可以更好地進行管理。總的來說，我們認為這種結合給了我們能力。我們在 23 年證明了我們可以做到這一點，隨著時間的推移，我們將在這三個類別中變得越來越好，這使我們有能力繼續表現出色。這又是一項艱苦的工作，這是一個競爭非常激烈的行業，但我喜歡我們的競爭定位。

Now the follow-on to that is what we did with the organization. We're going through a difficult and fairly aggressive restructuring overall. And as we did that, we just thought it would be important to align how we were structured with the senior team. And one of the moves that was the regions that we're dual reporting to both Derek and I are now solely reporting into ag. And that's really just about execution, just allowing them to be narrowly very, very focused on driving execution in a difficult ag market. And I think we're seeing the benefits from that. So just a couple of -- I would -- I just believe being a smaller team, making faster, better decisions is going to be the benefit for us going forward.

現在，後續工作就是我們對該組織所做的事情。總體而言，我們正在經歷一項困難且相當積極的重組。當我們這樣做時，我們只是認為將我們的結構與高階團隊保持一致非常重要。其中一項舉措是，我們向德里克和我雙重報告的地區現在只向農業報告。這實際上只是關於執行，只是讓他們非常非常專注於在困難的農業市場中推動執行。我認為我們正在看到從中帶來的好處。因此，我認為，作為一個較小的團隊，做出更快、更好的決策將對我們未來的發展有利。

The next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria calling from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的塔米·扎卡里亞 (Tami Zakaria) 打來的電話。

I have one question, but two parts. So the pricing outlook of 1%. I just wanted to clarify, is that net of dealer discounts or not including dealer discount? So that's part one. And then part two...

我有一個問題，但分為兩個部分。所以定價前景為1%。我只是想澄清一下，這是扣除經銷商折扣還是不包括經銷商折扣？這是第一部分。然後第二部分...

Yes it is. Next.

是的。下一個。

Okay. And so you said you expect 0% to 2% pricing depending on production and geography. So that means you don't expect any negative pricing in any of the regions. The reason I focus on that, we've heard some of the other OEMs talk about pricing turning negative mid- to high single digit in the fourth quarter and may continue for another quarter or two in South America. So just wondering how you're thinking about your pricing expectation versus some of these comments from your competitors, especially for South America?

好的。所以你說你預計 0% 到 2% 的定價取決於產量和地理位置。因此，這意味著您預計任何地區都不會出現負定價。我之所以關注這一點，是因為我們聽到其他一些原始設備製造商談論第四季度定價將變為負中高個位數，並且在南美洲可能會持續一兩個季度。那麼，只是想知道您如何看待您的定價預期以及競爭對手的一些評論，尤其是針對南美洲的評論？

Yes. Tami, I don't want to tell you to go back and read the prepared remarks. But I will just remind you that Rafael Miotto and the team in South America, very early on last year, raised the warning signs for us about what was happening. And I still think it was a poor decision by the farmers not to sell their harvest. But we got on top of dealer inventories faster, and therefore, we have less to deal with. Therefore, we have less pricing pressure.

是的。塔米，我不想讓你回去閱讀準備好的演講稿。但我只想提醒您，拉斐爾·米奧托（Rafael Miotto）和南美洲的團隊去年年初就向我們發出了關於正在發生的事情的警告信號。我仍然認為農民不出售他們的收成是一個錯誤的決定。但我們更快地掌握了經銷商的庫存，因此，我們需要處理的東西更少。因此，我們的定價壓力較小。

Now as our competitors [bribed at], we're really focused on managing share when our competitors have more inventory than we do. So we'll -- we've got I mean, again, South America is interesting for us. It's our highest Net Promoter Scores with our customers, our highest dealer satisfaction scores our best proliferation of technology. So we feel really good about the team we have there and the ability to offset some of the dynamics. But I think just the net-net is our dealer inventory is in a better position, and that's helping us have less impact on price.

現在，作為我們的競爭對手[賄賂]，當我們的競爭對手擁有比我們更多的庫存時，我們真正專注於管理份額。所以我們會——我的意思是，南美洲對我們來說很有趣。這是我們與客戶的最高淨推薦值，我們最高的經銷商滿意度為我們最好的技術擴散評分。因此，我們對我們的團隊以及抵消一些動態的能力感到非常滿意。但我認為，我們的經銷商庫存處於更好的位置，這有助於我們減少對價格的影響。

Got it. So no negative pricing in South America is the bottom line?

知道了。那麼南美洲沒有負定價是底線嗎？

I don't understand the term negative pricing so.

我不太理解負定價這個詞。

Like pricing down less than zero for your price down products.

例如你的降價產品的降價幅度小於零。

I'm joking. No, we certainly -- we're very, very focused on delivering value for our customers, and we expect to be maintaining price in that environment.

我是在開玩笑。不，我們當然 - 我們非常非常專注於為客戶提供價值，並且我們希望在這種環境下維持價格不變。

And the last question comes from Larry De Maria at William Blair.

最後一個問題來自威廉·布萊爾的拉里·德·瑪麗亞。

So Tami asked the question, you answered obviously, specifically to South America. And I guess when we think about -- we talk to clients, the biggest (inaudible) case is obviously somebody's view on the cycle, which can differ. And then as pricing going negative from the group after a number of years being very, very strong, right? But now we're going to a period where the market softer pricing has been parabolically up and used pricing is weakening, which impacts the ability to trade down one, down two levels. So I think you answered it, but just -- in other words, I was going to add for your commitment on no new taxes or no pricing cuts, but you really -- your belief and the ability for the market to handle that over the next year or two with used equipment pricing going negative.

所以塔米問了這個問題，你回答得很明顯，特別是南美洲。我想當我們思考時——我們與客戶交談時，最大的（聽不清楚）案例顯然是某人對週期的看法，這可能會有所不同。然後，在經過幾年非常非常強勁的定價之後，該集團的定價變為負數，對嗎？但現在我們將進入這樣一個時期：市場疲軟定價呈現拋物線式上升，二手定價正在疲軟，這會影響交易能力下降一個、兩個水準。所以我認為你回答了這個問題，但換句話說，我本來想補充一下你對不徵收新稅或不降價的承諾，但你確實 - 你的信念和市場處理這一問題的能力明年或兩年，二手設備價格將變為負值。

I was a bit joking with Tami. But I mean literally, the term negative pricing doesn't -- we just don't talk about it. And I think the way to think about it is our cost, we're driving cost down, but inflation -- lower inflation is still inflation. I mean what drove our pricing so high was a dramatic increase in input cost. And those input costs have not gone negative and aren't giving us a bunch of room back that we can discount. If that does happen, and we see massive disinflation, I will absolutely share that with our customers. But that is not what we're seeing. And again, I don't think it's in anybody's interest to go -- to take that route, and we're certainly not.

我和塔米開了個玩笑。但我的意思是，從字面上看，負定價這個詞並沒有——我們只是不談論它。我認為思考這個問題的方式是我們的成本，我們正在降低成本，但通貨膨脹——較低的通貨膨脹仍然是通貨膨脹。我的意思是，導致我們的定價如此之高的原因是投入成本的急劇增加。這些投入成本並沒有變成負值，也沒有為我們帶來大量可以折扣的空間。如果這種情況確實發生，並且我們看到大規模的通貨緊縮，我絕對會與我們的客戶分享這一點。但這不是我們所看到的。再說一次，我認為走這條路不符合任何人的利益，我們當然也不這麼做。

This now concludes the call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

現在通話結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。