CMS能源 (CMS) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the CMS Energy 2025 third quarter results. The earnings news release issued earlier today and the presentation used in this webcast are available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位早安，歡迎收看 CMS Energy 2025 年第三季業績報告。今天稍早發布的獲利新聞稿和本次網路直播中使用的簡報可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係部分找到。本次通話正在錄音。（操作說明）

Just a reminder that there will be a rebroadcast of this conference call today beginning at 12:00 PM Eastern Time running through to November 6. This presentation is also being webcast and is available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section.

提醒各位，本次電話會議將於今天美國東部時間下午 12:00 開始重播，一直持續到 11 月 6 日。本次演講也將進行網路直播，並可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係版塊觀看。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Jason Shore, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations.

此時，我想把電話交給財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁傑森‧肖爾先生。

Thank you, Alex. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me are Garrick Rochow, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rejji Hayes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。各位早安，感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。與我一同出席的還有總裁兼執行長加里克羅喬，以及執行副總裁兼財務長雷吉·海耶斯。

This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings for more information regarding the risks and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix and posted on our website.

本簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。有關可能導致我們實際業績與預期業績存在重大差異的風險和其他因素的更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。本次簡報也包含非GAAP財務指標。這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表包含在附錄中，並發佈在我們的網站上。

And now I'll turn the call over to Garrick.

現在我將把電話交給加里克。

Thank you, Jason, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. A strong quarter at CMS Energy from an operational, regulatory and financial perspective. I am very pleased with the results and continue to see us well positioned for the full year and in the long term. Our consistent industry-leading performance is rooted in our investment thesis that delivers for customers, coworkers and investors.

謝謝傑森，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨。從營運、監管和財務角度來看，CMS Energy本季表現強勁。我對結果非常滿意，並繼續認為我們為全年和長遠發展都做好了充分準備。我們持續保持業界領先的業績源自於我們的投資理念，該理念為客戶、同事和投資者帶來收益。

Speaking of strong performance and consistency, throughout the quarter, we delivered key regulatory outcomes, which highlight the positive and constructive regulatory environment in Michigan. We received a final order in our renewable energy plan that approved an additional 8 gigawatts of solar and 2.8 gigawatts of wind through 2035 and ensures we will meet Michigan's clean energy law. A portion of these investments will be woven into our next five-year plan.

說到強勁的業績和穩定性，本季我們取得了重要的監管成果，凸顯了密西根州積極且建設性的監管環境。我們的再生能源計畫獲得了最終批准，到 2035 年將新增 8 吉瓦太陽能和 2.8 吉瓦風能，並確保我們將符合密西根州的清潔能源法。這些投資的一部分將納入我們下一個五年計畫。

This order also provides further certainty and confidence for our long-term customer investments. And as a reminder, this renewable energy plan is a key input into our Integrated Resource Plan that we will file mid-2026.

這項命令也為我們長期的客戶投資提供了進一步的確定性和信心。再次提醒大家，這項再生能源計畫是我們將於 2026 年中提交的綜合資源計畫的關鍵組成部分。

We also received a constructive order in our gas rate case, approving approximately 75% of the final ask and 95% of infrastructure investments for work like domain and vintage service replacements, which are critical to ensuring a safe, affordable and cleaner natural gas system. Chair Scripps comments from that meeting continue to support thoughtful and deliberate adjustments in ROE and suggested we have reached the floor for ROEs and in his words, driven out any excess.

在我們的天然氣價格案件中，我們也獲得了一項建設性裁決，批准了最終要價的約 75% 和基礎設施投資的 95%，用於域和老舊服務更換等工作，這些工作對於確保安全、經濟實惠和更清潔的天然氣系統至關重要。斯克里普斯主席在那次會議上的評論繼續支持對 ROE 進行深思熟慮的調整，並表示我們已經達到了 ROE 的最低點，用他的話說，已經消除了任何過剩。

Recently, on the electric side, staff filed their position in our pending rate case, supporting approximately 75% of our revised and approximately 90% of our capital ask. This case includes investments supporting reliability and resiliency, which benefits our customers and are well aligned with our Reliability Roadmap and MPSC direction.

最近，在電力方面，員工們就我們待決的費率案件提交了他們的立場，支持我們修訂後的費率的約 75% 和我們資本要求的約 90%。該案例包括支持可靠性和韌性的投資，這有利於我們的客戶，並且與我們的可靠性路線圖和 MPSC 方向非常契合。

Again, one of many proof points in our supportive regulatory environment and a strong starting position for a constructive outcome. As shared in previous quarterly calls, we continue to see strong economic growth in Michigan. As I highlighted in the Q2 call, we have an agreement with a data center and continue to see growth with manufacturing as well as a robust pipeline. Year-to-date, we have connected approximately 450 megawatts of the planned 900 megawatts of industrial growth in our five-year plan.

這再次證明了我們良好的監管環境，也為建設性成果奠定了堅實的基礎。正如先前季度電話會議中所述，我們繼續看到密西根州的經濟成長強勁。正如我在第二季電話會議上所強調的那樣，我們與一家資料中心達成了協議，製造業持續成長，並且擁有強勁的研發管線。今年迄今為止，我們已併網了五年計畫中規劃的 900 兆瓦工業成長裝置容量中的約 450 兆瓦。

I'm also pleased to share that we've been successful adding another approximately 100 megawatts of signed contracts year-to-date. This growth is coming from new projects, expansion from existing customers in the areas of food processing, aerospace and defense and advanced manufacturing. These projects bring jobs and supply chains, home starts and commercial opportunities to the state and create further visibility to our 2% to 3% forecasted annual sales growth over the next five years.

我很高興地告訴大家，今年到目前為止，我們已經成功新增了約 100 兆瓦的簽約合約。這項成長來自新項目，以及現有客戶在食品加工、航空航太與國防和先進製造業領域的業務擴張。這些項目為本州帶來就業和供應鏈、房屋開工和商業機會，並進一步提高了我們未來五年 2% 至 3% 的年銷售成長預期的可見度。

On the slide, we're showing our economic growth pipeline. You'll note we continue to move projects into and along the pipeline, bolstering our confidence in additional growth from data centers and other diverse industries. As I mentioned on our Q2 call, we have an agreement with a data center with up to 1 gigawatt of load planning to come to our service territory beginning in early 2030 and ramping up from there. You'll see that project in the final stage of our process at near final terms and conditions.

幻燈片上展示了我們的經濟成長路線圖。你會注意到，我們不斷推進專案進入和推進流程，這增強了我們對資料中心和其他多元化產業進一步成長的信心。正如我在第二季度電話會議上提到的，我們與一家資料中心達成協議，該資料中心擁有高達 1 吉瓦的負載規劃能力，將於 2030 年初開始進入我們的服務區域，並在此基礎上逐步增加。您將在我們流程的最後階段看到該項目，條款和條件也接近最終確定。

I expect further progress, specifically contract signature as the large load tariff is finalized in November when we expect an order from the MPSC. You'll also see other large data centers in the final and advanced stages of development, which speaks to the robust nature of our pipeline. I continue to be confident and excited about the growth coming to our service territory. The data center and manufacturing pipeline is robust and advancing, and we are well equipped to serve and meet their needs as they advance.

我期待取得進一步進展，特別是合約簽署，因為大負荷關稅將於 11 月最終確定，屆時我們將收到 MPSC 的訂單。您還會看到其他大型資料中心處於開發的最後和進階階段，這說明我們管道的穩健性。我對我們服務區域未來的發展仍然充滿信心和期待。資料中心和製造流程穩健發展，我們已做好充分準備，隨時滿足他們不斷發展的需求。

On the left side of the next slide, you see our current five-year $20 billion customer investment plan. On the right side, you see the robust and diverse additional investment opportunities we have going forward. Over $25 billion of additional customer investments supported by our Electric Reliability Roadmap, renewable energy plan and Integrated Resource Plan.

在下一張投影片的左側，您可以看到我們目前的五年 200 億美元客戶投資計畫。右側展示了我們未來擁有的豐富多樣的額外投資機會。在我們的電力可靠性路線圖、再生能源計畫和綜合資源計畫的支持下，客戶額外投資超過 250 億美元。

As a result of more load growth, we're focused on resource adequacy and the clean energy law, which means more renewables, battery storage and natural gas generation to meet growing demand. And as I shared earlier, our recently approved renewable energy plan provides visibility and certainty on our plan for future investments. Our Integrated Resource Plan that we will file in mid-2026 will also detail additional capacity needed to replace retired plants and support existing and future growth we are realizing.

由於負載成長，我們專注於資源充足性和清潔能源法，這意味著增加再生能源、電池儲能和天然氣發電，以滿足不斷增長的需求。正如我之前提到的，我們最近獲批的再生能源計劃為我們未來的投資計劃提供了透明度和確定性。我們將於 2026 年年中提交的綜合資源計劃還將詳細說明為取代退役工廠和支持我們正在實現的現有和未來成長所需的額外產能。

As we see that full plan come together, we anticipate needing more battery storage and gas capacity. And as a side note, you can expect further growth from capital-light mechanisms like our financial compensation mechanism on PPAs and our energy waste reduction program.

隨著整個計畫的逐步落實，我們預計需要更多的電池儲能和天然氣容量。另外，值得一提的是，透過我們輕資本機制（例如購電協議的財務補償機制和能源浪費減少計劃），您可以期待進一步的成長。

On our distribution system, we see a significant need for investment in pole replacement, undergrounding and system hardening as we work to significantly improve customer reliability and resiliency. And again, well aligned with our Reliability Roadmap and MPSC direction. As I shared before, a robust and growing capital plan, which will continue to provide investment opportunities to serve customers and deliver value for investors.

在我們的配電系統中，我們看到對電線桿更換、地下化和系統加固方面存在大量投資需求，因為我們正在努力顯著提高客戶的可靠性和彈性。再次強調，這與我們的可靠性路線圖和MPSC方向非常一致。正如我之前分享的那樣，我們制定了一項穩健且不斷增長的資本計劃，該計劃將繼續提供投資機會，以服務客戶並為投資者創造價值。

Now this long runway of customer investments must be balanced with affordability. We have demonstrated our excellence in reducing cost, and we do this better than most through the CE Way, digital and automation, episodic cost-saving opportunities, low growth and energy waste reduction. This is a significant advantage for us to maintain affordability as we make needed investments in our system.

現在，必須平衡客戶長期投資的需求與產品的可負擔性。我們在降低成本方面展現了卓越的實力，並且透過 CE 模式、數位化和自動化、階段性成本節約機會、低成長和減少能源浪費，我們比大多數公司做得更好。這對我們來說是一個重要的優勢，使我們能夠在對系統進行必要投資的同時，保持價格合理性。

Today, our customers' utility bill remains roughly 3% of their total expenses or what is often referred to as share of wallet. This is down 150 basis points from a decade ago while investing significantly in our system to the tune of $20 billion. Our residential bills are solidly below the national average and continue to be over the five-year plan period as we continue to make thoughtful customer investments across the system.

如今，我們客戶的水電瓦斯費帳單仍約佔其總支出的 3%，也就是通常所說的「錢包份額」。這比十年前下降了 150 個基點，同時我們也對我們的系統進行了大量投資，金額高達 200 億美元。我們的居民帳單遠低於全國平均水平，並且在五年計劃期內將繼續保持這一水平，因為我們將繼續在整個系統中進行周全的客戶投資。

Affordability is an area where we will continue to focus and deliver cost savings for customers, keeping customer rates at or below inflation and bills below the national average. I am proud of the work we have done to develop excellence in this area. We have built strong cost management muscle across the company, and it continues to benefit customers today and well into the future.

我們將繼續關注價格承受能力，為客戶節省成本，使客戶費率保持在通貨膨脹率或以下，而帳單低於全國平均水平。我為我們在該領域的卓越成就感到自豪。我們在公司內部建立了強大的成本管理能力，這將持續為客戶帶來益處，並惠及未來很長一段時間。

As I shared in my opening, a strong quarter. For the first nine months, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.66, up $0.19 versus the same period in 2024, largely driven by the constructive outcomes in our electric and gas rate cases and a return to more normal weather. Given our confidence in the year, we're raising the bottom end of this year's guidance range to $3.56 to $3.60 per share from $3.54 to $3.60 per share with continued confidence toward the high end.

正如我在開篇所說，這是一個強勁的季度。前九個月，我們公佈的調整後每股收益為 2.66 美元，比 2024 年同期增長 0.19 美元，這主要得益於我們在電力和天然氣費率案件中取得的積極成果以及天氣逐漸恢復正常。鑑於我們對今年的信心，我們將今年的盈利預期下限從每股 3.54 美元至 3.60 美元上調至每股 3.56 美元至 3.60 美元，並且對實現盈利上限也充滿信心。

We are initiating our full year guidance for 2026 at $3.80 to $3.87 per share, reflecting 6% to 8% growth of the midpoint of this year's revised range, and we are well positioned to be toward the high end of that range. It is important to remember, we always rebase guidance off our actuals on the Q4 call, compounding our growth. And like we've done in previous years, we'll provide a refresh of our five-year capital and financial plans on the Q4 call.

我們初步預測 2026 年全年每股收益為 3.80 美元至 3.87 美元，較今年修訂後的預期區間中點增長 6% 至 8%，我們預計將達到該區間的上限。需要注意的是，我們總是在第四季度財報電話會議上根據實際業績重新調整業績指引，從而實現持續成長。和往年一樣，我們將在第四季電話會議上更新我們的五年資本和財務計畫。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Rejji.

這樣，我就把電話交給雷吉了。

Thank you, Garrick, and good morning, everyone. On slide 9, you'll see our standard waterfall chart, which illustrates the key drivers impacting our financial performance for the first nine months of 2025 and our year-to-go expectations. For clarification purposes, all of the variance analyses herein are in comparison to 2024, both on a year-to-date and a year-to-go basis.

謝謝你，加里克，大家早安。在第 9 張投影片中，您將看到我們的標準瀑布圖，該圖說明了影響我們 2025 年前九個月財務表現的關鍵驅動因素以及我們對未來一年的預期。為了便於理解，本文的所有差異分析均與 2024 年進行比較，包括年初至今和年初至今的差異分析。

In summary, for the third quarter, we delivered adjusted net income of $797 million or $2.66 per share, which compares favorably to the first nine months of 2024, largely due to higher rate relief net of investment costs and favorable weather-related sales.

總而言之，第三季我們實現了調整後淨收入 7.97 億美元，即每股 2.66 美元，與 2024 年前九個月相比，這一數字相當可觀，這主要是由於扣除投資成本後的利率減免以及有利的天氣相關銷售。

With respect to the latter, we experienced a warm summer in Michigan, which in part drove the $0.37 per share of positive variance on a year-to-date basis. Rate relief net of investment costs, resulted in $0.28 per share of positive variance due to constructive outcomes achieved in our electric rate order received in March and the residual benefits of last year's gas rate case settlement.

關於後者，密西根州經歷了一個溫暖的夏季，這在一定程度上推動了年初至今每股收益增加 0.37 美元。扣除投資成本後的費率減免，由於我們在 3 月份收到的電力費率令中取得的建設性成果以及去年天然氣費率案件和解的剩餘收益，每股收益為 0.28 美元。

From a cost perspective, you'll notice in the third bar on the left-hand side of the chart, $0.04 per share of negative variance versus the comparable period in 2024. Our year-to-date cost performance was largely driven by increased vegetation management expense due to higher spending levels approved in our March electric rate order and in accordance with our Electric Reliability Roadmap.

從成本角度來看，您會在圖表左側的第三個柱狀圖中註意到，與 2024 年同期相比，每股負偏差為 0.04 美元。今年迄今的成本表現主要受植被管理費用增加的影響，這是由於我們在 3 月份的電力費率命令中批准了更高的支出水平，並且符合我們的電力可靠性路線圖。

Before we leave the cost bucket, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that given our strong financial performance to date, we put several operational pull aheads in motion across the business over the course of the quarter. These discretionary measures provided additional funding for gas system projects, electric reliability and programs catered to our most vulnerable customers. A portion of these costs were incurred during the quarter, while the balance will flow through our forecasted year-to-go operating expenses, delivering incremental value for customers while derisking our financial plan and the product year to the benefit of investors.

在結束成本分析之前，我必須提及，鑑於我們迄今為止強勁的財務表現，我們在本季度啟動了多項業務運營方面的提前行動。這些酌情措施為天然氣系統項目、電力可靠性和為我們最弱勢的客戶群提供的項目提供了額外的資金。這些成本的一部分是在本季度發生的，而剩餘部分將計入我們預測的年度營運費用中，為客戶帶來增量價值，同時降低我們財務計畫和產品年度的風險，使投資者受益。

Rounding out the first nine months of the year, you'll note the $0.42 per share of negative variance highlighted in the catch-all bucket in the middle of the chart. The primary drivers of the negative variance were related to the planned outage of our Dearborn Industrial Generation or DIG facility earlier in the year and the timing of select renewable projects at NorthStar, which I'll note remain on track, coupled with higher parent financing costs.

回顧今年前九個月，你會注意到圖表中間的匯總欄中突出顯示了每股 0.42 美元的負方差。造成負偏差的主要原因是今年早些時候我們迪爾伯恩工業發電廠 (DIG) 的計劃停產，以及 NorthStar 部分可再生能源項目的進度安排（需要指出的是，這些項目目前仍在按計劃進行），再加上母公司融資成本的上升。

Looking ahead, as always, we plan for normal weather, which equates to $0.15 per share of positive variance for the remaining three months of the year, given the roll-off of mild temperatures experienced in the last three months of 2024. From a regulatory perspective, we'll realize $0.03 per share of positive variance, driven in large part by the constructive outcome achieved in our gas rate order in September, which will go into effect on November 1.

展望未來，我們一如既往地以正常天氣為計劃，考慮到 2024 年最後三個月的溫和氣溫將逐漸消退，這意味著今年剩餘三個月每股收益將有 0.15 美元的正向波動。從監管角度來看，我們將實現每股 0.03 美元的正向波動，這主要得益於我們在 9 月份天然氣價格令中取得的建設性成果，該價格令將於 11 月 1 日生效。

On the cost side, we anticipate $0.06 per share of negative variance for the remaining three months of 2025 due to our ongoing vegetation management efforts as well as the aforementioned supplemental spending on operational and customer initiatives at the utility.

在成本方面，由於我們正在進行的植被管理工作以及上述公用事業運營和客戶計劃的補充支出，我們預計 2025 年剩餘三個月每股將出現 0.06 美元的負偏差。

Closing out the glide path for the remainder of the year in the penultimate bar on the right-hand side, you'll note an estimated range of $0.05 to $0.09 per share of negative variance, which largely consists of the absence of select onetime countermeasures from last year, partially offset by nonutility performance fueled by achievement of key economic milestones on select renewable projects, among other items. As Garrick highlighted, we are well positioned to deliver on our financial objectives for the year and are establishing a solid foundation for 2026 through prudent contingency deployment as we head into the final two months of the year.

在右側倒數第二個柱狀圖所示的今年剩餘時間的下滑路徑中，您會注意到每股負偏差估計在 0.05 美元到 0.09 美元之間，這主要是由於去年某些一次性應對措施的缺失，部分被非公用事業業績所抵消，而非公用事業業績的提升則得益於某些可再生能源項目的實現，以及其他關鍵經濟里程碑的實現，以及其他關鍵經濟里程碑的實現，以及其他關鍵經濟里程碑的實現，以及其他關鍵經濟里程碑的實現，以及其他關鍵經濟里程碑的實現，以及其他關鍵經濟里程碑的實現，以及其他關鍵經濟里程碑。正如加里克所強調的那樣，我們有能力實現今年的財務目標，並在今年最後兩個月通過審慎的緊急部署，為 2026 年奠定堅實的基礎。

Moving on to the balance sheet on slide 10. I'll note our recently reaffirmed credit ratings at the utility from S&P in September, and we anticipate a reaffirmation of the parent's credit ratings in the coming weeks. From a financial planning perspective, we continue to target mid-teens FFO to debt on a consolidated basis to preserve our solid investment-grade credit ratings as per long-standing guidance from the rating agencies. As always, we remain focused on maintaining a strong financial position, which, coupled with a supportive rate construct and predictable cash flow generation minimizes our funding costs to the benefit of our customers and investors.

接下來請看第 10 頁的資產負債表。我要指出的是，標普在 9 月再次確認了該公用事業公司的信用評級，我們預計其母公司的信用評級將在未來幾週內得到確認。從財務規劃的角度來看，我們將繼續以合併後的FFO與債務比率保持在15%左右為目標，以保持我們穩健的投資級信用評級，這符合評級機構的長期指導意見。一如既往，我們專注於維持穩健的財務狀況，再加上有利的利率結構和可預測的現金流，最大限度地降低了我們的融資成本，從而使我們的客戶和投資者受益。

Slide 11 offers an update to our funding needs in 2025 at the utility and at the parent. I am pleased to report that we have completed virtually all of our planned financings for 2025, the latest tranche of which was our settlement of approximately $500 million of forward equity contracts at share price levels favorable to our plan. Given the attractive market conditions, we'll continue to evaluate potential pull-ahead opportunities for some of our 2026 financing needs at the parent.

第 11 頁介紹了我們在 2025 年對公用事業公司和母公司的資金需求的最新情況。我很高興地報告，我們已基本完成了 2025 年的所有計劃融資，其中最新一批融資是我們以有利於我們計劃的股價水平結算了約 5 億美元的遠期股權合約。鑑於當前市場環境良好，我們將繼續評估提前籌集資金以滿足母公司 2026 年部分融資需求的潛在機會。

As I've said before, our approach to our financing plan is similar to how we run the business. We plan conservatively and capitalize on opportunities as they arise. This approach has been tried and true year in and year out and has enabled us to deliver on our operational and financial objectives, irrespective of the circumstances to the benefit of our customers and investors, and this year is no different.

正如我之前所說，我們的融資計劃與我們經營業務的方式類似。我們採取保守的規劃方式，並抓住出現的機會。這種方法年復一年地行之有效，使我們能夠實現營運和財務目標，無論情況如何，都為我們的客戶和投資者帶來利益，今年也不例外。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Garrick for his final remarks before the Q&A session.

接下來，我將把麥克風交還給加里克，請他在問答環節之前作最後總結發言。

Thanks, Rejji. At CMS Energy, we deliver a strong first nine months of the year and well positioned for the full year. Our strong pipeline of new and expanding load bolsters our confidence in our growth and provides us with opportunity to invest in infrastructure across both our gas and electric businesses to serve customers with safe, affordable, reliable and clean energy. It is an exciting time in this industry, and CMS Energy is well positioned.

謝謝你，雷吉。CMS Energy 今年前九個月業績強勁，為全年發展奠定了良好基礎。我們強大的新增和不斷增長的負載儲備增強了我們對自身發展的信心，並為我們提供了投資天然氣和電力業務基礎設施的機會，以便為客戶提供安全、經濟、可靠和清潔的能源。對於能源產業而言，這是一個令人興奮的時代，而 CMS Energy 已佔據有利地位。

With that, Alex, please open the lines for Q&A.

那麼，Alex，請​​開啟問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

（操作說明）朱利安·杜穆蘭-史密斯，傑富瑞集團。

Hey, good morning team. Thank you guys very much. Nicely done, continued progress here. If I can, team, can you elaborate a little bit on just what the timing is on the large load tariff? Just again, I suspect that this is more mundane in process than anything else. But just elaborate there.

嘿，各位早安。非常感謝各位。做得不錯，繼續取得進步。如果可以的話，各位，能否詳細說明一下大負載電價的具體時間安排？我只是再次懷疑，這個過程更多的是平淡無奇，而不是其他什麼。但請詳細說明一下。

And then more importantly, can you speak to the opportunity that exists behind this, right? Clearly, this is something of a gating item just to deal with process. What are those conversations looking like to the extent to which that something were to manifest itself here in the next couple of months?

更重要的是，您能否談談這背後存在的機會？顯然，這只是處理流程中的關鍵環節。如果未來幾個月內這種情況真的發生，那麼相關的討論會發展到什麼程度？

There are -- Julien, it's great to hear from you. There are three large data centers in the final stages. That's up to 2 gigawatts of opportunity there. We've talked in Q2 about one of those. And you can see that at the bottom of that pipeline or at the bottom of that funnel, and we're really at final terms and conditions. It's important to get this gating item done, the tariff, the large load tariff. We expect that November 7.

有的——朱利安，很高興收到你的來信。目前有三個大型資料中心正處於最後建設階段。那可是高達 2 吉瓦的開發機會啊！我們在第二季討論過其中一個問題。您可以看到，在管道的底部或漏斗的底部，我們真的已經到了最終條款和條件階段。完成這項關卡事項，即大負荷關稅，非常重要。我們預計11月7日。

And that will be important. That obviously looks through the terms -- other terms and conditions, the length of the contract and minimum demands and those types of things. And so I would expect that, that one at the bottom of the funnel, the one we talked about in Q2, we will move through that funnel and move through that pipeline in short order after that tariff is in place.

這一點很重要。這顯然會仔細審查條款——其他條款和條件、合約期限、最低要求等等。因此，我預計，在漏斗底部的那個項目，也就是我們在第二季度討論的那個項目，在關稅生效後，我們很快就會通過那個漏斗和那個管道。

The other two large ones, I would also expect to move forward within that pipeline. Just to give you some clarity on those projects, they have land, they have zoning. We've worked through the red lines and some of the basic terms and conditions, continue to see good progress there. And they're also -- it's also important, this gating item on the tariffs. And so I would expect them to move forward further in the pipeline. So hopefully, that helps, Julien. It's an exciting pipeline. It's an exciting time in this industry.

另外兩個大項目，我預計也會在這個流程中推進。為了讓您對這些項目有更清晰的了解，它們有土地，也有規劃許可。我們已經克服了重重阻礙，敲定了一些基本條款和條件，並且在這方面持續取得良好進展。而且，關稅中的這項限制性條款也很重要。因此，我預計他們會在後續的研發流程中繼續前進。希望這對你有幫助，朱利安。這是一條令人振奮的管道。對於這個行業來說，這是一個令人興奮的時代。

Absolutely. So it sounds like you could potentially see developments on all three here shortly after that were resolved here on November 7 or again, focus first on the initial contract shortly thereafter and then in coming months on the others?

絕對地。所以聽起來，這三件事可能很快就會有進展，因為它們在 11 月 7 日得到了解決；或者，首先集中精力處理最初的合同，然後在接下來的幾個月裡處理其他的事情？

We like the direction of all three. And certainly, there's one further in the funnel like we shared at the Q2 call. And so again, plenty of opportunities for data centers here. But I'd also point to the funnel has semiconductors, it has manufacturing, and we continue to land those as well. And those bring with it, as we've talked in the past, a number of benefits. And so a really robust pipeline of opportunity here in Michigan and across our service territory.

我們喜歡這三個方向的發展方向。當然，就像我們在第二季電話會議上分享的那樣，漏斗中還有更深一層的東西。所以，這裡有很多建置資料中心的機會。但我還要指出，這個通路包括半導體、製造業，我們也不斷拿下這些領域。正如我們之前討論過的，這些都帶來了一些好處。因此，在密西根州以及我們的服務區域內，我們擁有非常強勁的發展機會。

Excellent. And maybe a little bit more of a strategic question, if I can clarify this. I mean, obviously, having this level of confidence potentially gives you more latitude within the plan in the 5 years. When and how do you think about being able to leverage that and reflect it in the plan?

出色的。或許還有一個更具策略性的問題，如果我能解釋一下的話。我的意思是，很顯然，擁有這種程度的自信可能會讓你在未來 5 年的計劃中擁有更大的靈活性。您認為何時以及如何才能利用這些資訊並將其體現在計劃中？

And what I'm getting at is potentially maybe there's some upside even within the 6% to 8% or above the 6% to 8%? Or would you be thinking more about, again, doing something that would be more offensive in as much as you guys transacted on EnerBank earlier to improve the overall quality of your earnings. Could you do something similar to that again?

我的意思是，即使收益率在 6% 到 8% 之間，或高於 6% 到 8% 之間，也可能存在一些上漲空間？或者，你們是否會考慮再次採取更具攻擊性的做法，就像你們之前在 EnerBank 上進行交易一樣，以提高你們的整體收益品質。您能再做一次類似的操作嗎？

We've got a five -- if I just step back and look at our capital plans for just a minute, five years right now, $20 billion, and we got $25 billion plus knocking at the door, just wanting to get into that plan. And all this data centers would be incremental. So you can imagine that $25 billion growing. And so that's a great opportunity as we land these data centers, incremental to the plan from a capital perspective, incremental from a sales perspective as well.

我們有五年——如果我退後一步，看看我們目前的資本計劃，五年內，200億美元，還有250億美元以上的資金正在等待到位，都想加入這個計劃。而且所有這些數據中心都將是逐步建造的。所以你可以想像，這250億美元還在持續成長中。因此，隨著這些資料中心的落成，無論從資本角度或銷售角度來看，這都是一個絕佳的機會，可以推動我們實現這些資料中心的目標。

We're delivering. Like CMS Energy, we deliver. And that is this context of for '22 going on 23 years, we've delivered industry-leading financial performance, where others have been at 4% to 6% and 5% to 7%, I'm glad they're finally catching up with us. We've been at 6% to 8%. We've been at the high end of that, and we're compounding off that. That's pretty -- like compounding off actuals, you see that in other industries. That's pretty unique in this industry, and we do that. That's a higher quality of earnings and we get and our investors see that.

我們正在發貨。就像 CMS Energy 一樣，我們說到做到。正是在這樣的背景下，在過去的2022年到23年裡，我們取得了業界領先的財務業績，而其他公司的業績只有4%到6%和5%到7%，我很高興他們終於趕上我們了。我們一直維持在 6% 到 8% 之間。我們一直處於這個領域的高端，並且正在不斷擴大這個領域。這很不錯——就像實際數字的複利一樣，你在其他行業也能看到這種情況。這在業界相當獨特，而我們正是這樣做的。這是更高品質的收益，我們獲得了收益，我們的投資者也看到了這一點。

So we really play the long game here. We have confidence in that in our guidance. But of course, we're competitive. We always look at our capital plan. We always look at affordability. We look at the ability to achieve that capital plan. There's a lot of things that go into that. And certainly, you'll hear more about that capital plan and further data center advancements in our Q4 call.

所以我們是在進行一場持久戰。我們對我們的指導充滿信心。當然，我們是有競爭意識的。我們始終關注我們的資本計劃。我們始終會考慮價格是否合理。我們考察實現該資本計劃的能力。這其中涉及很多因素。當然，您將在我們的第四季度電話會議上聽到更多關於該資本計劃和資料中心進一步發展的資訊。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

傑里米·託內特，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning. I was just wondering if I could pick up with that $20 billion of CapEx knocking on the door. Just wondering how quickly could the door be opened here? Over what type of time line do you think that could be folded in given all these opportunities?

您好，早安。我只是想知道我是否能抓住那200億美元的資本支出機會。我想知道這裡的門最快能打開嗎？考慮到所有這些機會，你認為在什麼樣的時間範圍內可以把這些事情整合進去？

Well, first of all, it's $25 billion-plus knocking out the door. So it's even better than the $20 billion. And so you'll have like building a little suspense here for the Q4 call. You'll see that in the Q4 call. And here's what I anticipate. You're going to see more in electric reliability. We're already foreshadowing that in our current electric rate case.

首先，有超過 250 億美元的資金正在湧入市場。所以這甚至比200億美元還要好。所以，接下來你們就得為第四季財報電話會議製造一點懸念了。你會在第四季財報電話會議上看到這一點。以下是我預期的情況。你會看到電動車可靠性方面有更多提升。我們在目前的電價案件中已經預示了這一點。

That's important to improve service for all our customers. We're committed to that. We've shared that. It's lined up with the Liberty audit report. It's lined up with the MPSC direction and our Reliability Roadmap. You'll see more in that plan in the electric distribution space.

這對於提升我們所有客戶的服務品質至關重要。我們對此承諾會做到。我們已經分享過了。這與自由大學的審計報告相符。它與 MPSC 的方向和我們的可靠性路線圖相一致。你會在該計劃中看到更多關於電力分配領域的內容。

We have approved renewable energy plan. It is an additional 8 gigawatts of solar and 2.8 gigawatt of wind that's been approved through 2035. And you can imagine we're going to want to take advantage of tax credits and the safe harboring. So that's going to be -- that five-year plan is going to be healthy with those type of investments. And so that will be evident in Q4. And then we'll file our Integrated Resource Plan in '26, mid-'26.

我們已批准再生能源計劃。到 2035 年，還將新增 8 吉瓦太陽能和 2.8 吉瓦風能。您可以想像，我們會想要利用稅收抵免和安全港條款。所以，有了這類投資，這個五年計畫將會很健康。因此，這一點將在第四季度得到體現。然後我們將在 2026 年年中提交我們的綜合資源計劃。

Of course, that will play out over the next 10 months, so an order in '27. But you've got to start stacking that plan to be able to do the capacity -- build the capacity that you need. So I would anticipate battery storage and as well as natural gas capacity will start to filter into that 5-year plan. So really across all three. So hopefully, that's helpful, Jeremy?

當然，這將在接下來的 10 個月內逐步顯現，所以 '27 年才會下訂單。但你必須開始逐步實施該計劃，才能實現所需的產能——建立你需要的產能。因此，我預計電池儲能以及天然氣發電能力將開始納入該五年計畫。所以其實這三者都有涉及。希望這對你有幫助，傑里米？

Got it, thank you. And just want to pick up, I guess, with the gas plant, as you mentioned there, the potential for that. Would that be simple or combined? Or any other thoughts there, especially with regards to turbine slots?

明白了，謝謝。我想繼續討論您剛才提到的天然氣廠，以及它的潛在用途。是簡單的還是組合的？或者還有其他想法嗎，特別是關於渦輪槽方面？

We continue to work through that. I want to be really clear about this. When we look at what we need in this next Integrated Resource Plan, it's both battery capacity and natural gas capacity. And that's for retiring facilities as well as existing load growth.

我們仍在努力解決這個問題。我想把這件事說清楚。當我們審視下一個綜合資源計畫的需求時，會發現電池容量和天然氣容量都不可或缺。這既包括退役設施，也包括現有負載的成長。

And so the more we add in terms of data centers, that will continue to grow. And we're evaluating what that mix looks like from a simple cycle and combined cycle perspective. But you can expect, like we always do, that we're well planned, well prepared, and we're moving along in that direction.

因此，隨著資料中心數量的增加，這種情況還會繼續增長。我們正在從簡單循環和組合循環的角度評估這種組合會是什麼樣子。但您可以期待，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣，我們已經做好了周密的計劃和充分的準備，並且正在朝著這個方向前進。

Got it. Very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

知道了。很有幫助。我就說到這兒吧。謝謝。

Shar Pourreza, Wells Fargo.

Shar Pourreza，富國銀行。

Oh my, Shar. You're back. You're back, Shar. I've been missing you.

我的天哪，莎爾。你回來了。你回來了，莎爾。我一直很想念你。

Well, thanks, for having me back. I appreciate it. Thanks. Gary, appreciate it. I just start -- just a follow-up on the prior two questions. I guess the $25 billion you have there, does any of that $25 billion plus of upside, does any of that kind of overlap before the '29 time frame?

謝謝你們讓我回來。謝謝。謝謝。加里，謝謝你。我先開始——只是前兩個問題的後續提問。我想，你們擁有的 250 億美元，這 250 億美元以上的成長潛力，在 2029 年之前是否有任何重疊部分？

Yes. The short answer to that is yes. You'll see in our next five-year plan, you're going to see some of that $25 billion move into the next five years.

是的。簡而言之，答案是肯定的。在我們的下一個五年計畫中，你會看到這 250 億美元的一部分將轉移到未來五年。

This is Rejji. Shar, just if I could add to Garrick's comments, all I would add is I'd be surprised actually in this next vintage of five-year plan that we'll roll out in our fourth quarter call early next year. I'd be surprised if we're not dipping into each of those three components of that $25 billion. We're going to be in a steady march of reliability and resiliency-related work.

這是雷吉。Shar，如果我能補充 Garrick 的評論，我只想說，對於我們將在明年年初第四季度電話會議上推出的下一批五年計劃，我其實會感到驚訝。如果這 250 億美元中沒有用到這三個組成部分中的任何一個，我會感到驚訝。我們將穩步推進與可靠性和彈性相關的工作。

And so that's part of that $10 billion bucket of electric distribution. We will continue to chip away at the renewable energy targets embedded in the clean energy law. And we have an upcoming milestone of 50% renewables by 2030. And so we will definitely be dipping into that 8 gigawatts of solar that Garrick noted, 2.8 gigawatts of wind that will certainly be incorporated into the plan.

所以，這部分就屬於那100億美元的電力分配項目。我們將繼續逐步實現清潔能源法中規定的再生能源目標。我們即將迎來一個里程碑，在 2030 年實現 50% 的再生能源比例。因此，我們肯定會利用加里克提到的 8 吉瓦太陽能，以及肯定會納入該計劃的 2.8 吉瓦風能。

And then with respect to the IRP-related opportunities, that $5 billion bucket, remember, as I'm sure you know, the harvesting period for building out, whether it's simple cycle or combined cycle, you really have to do a lot of work upfront. And so we've already done the siting work. We are in the interconnection queue, but you do have to start spending money to really get on the front end of the gas turbine procurement.

至於 IRP 相關的機會，也就是那 50 億美元的資金池，請記住，我相信您也知道，無論是簡單的週期還是組合週期，建設的收穫期都需要大量的前期工作。所以我們已經完成了選址工作。我們已經進入互聯隊列，但要真正進入燃氣渦輪機採購的前期階段，確實需要開始投入資金。

And so there will be dollars associated there with embedded in this next plan. And so it's a long-winded way of saying we'll be dipping into each of those buckets. And that will -- and those related costs and investments will be incorporated in this next, what I'll call a '26 through 2035-year plan.

因此，下一個計劃中將會包含相關的資金。所以，說了這麼多，其實就是想表達我們會從這些類別中汲取靈感。而這些——以及相關的成本和投資——將被納入下一個，我稱之為「2026 年至 2035 年計畫」中。

Got it. And then just, Rejji, maybe just help me bridge, I guess, because you're getting a lot of questions around the CAGR this morning and it's just the way the math works given the base plan already grows at the higher end. I guess what is the offsetting factor on this CapEx being put into the plan potentially before '29 and it doesn't move the trajectory or accretive to this trajectory, I guess, what are the offsetting factors we should be thinking about?

知道了。然後，Rejji，也許你能幫我解釋一下，因為今天早上你收到了很多關於複合年增長率的問題，而這只是數學計算的方式，因為基本計劃已經在高端增長。我想，如果這項資本支出計劃在 2029 年之前實施，並且不會改變或促進該計劃的實施，那麼抵消因素是什麼？我們應該考慮哪些抵銷因素？

Yes, it's a great question, as always. So let me just start with just, as you know, how we build the plan. We always talk about the governors of our capital and our financial plan. And so we have to obviously chin the affordability bar and make sure that our rates are growing commensurate with inflation. And so there's a lot of hard work that goes into that. And so we'll lean heavily into the CE Way as we always do.

是的，這又是一個很好的問題。那麼，就讓我先從你們所知的，我們是如何制定計畫開始吧。我們總是談論我們首都的管理者和我們的財務計劃。因此，我們顯然必須降低負擔能力標準，並確保我們的利率成長與通貨膨脹率同步。因此，這背後需要付出很多努力。因此，我們將一如既往地大力推行CE之道。

As Garrick noted in his prepared remarks, we've got a lot of continued opportunity in terms of episodic cost reductions. And we also think that this -- the third leg of the affordability stool is now these economic development opportunities, which we will certainly convert on over this five-year period. And so look forward to having good news on that in the coming months and quarters. And so that's how we'll manage to deliver on the affordability side to, again, appease that governor.

正如加里克在事先準備好的演講稿中所指出的那樣，我們在降低臨時成本方面還有很多持續的機會。我們也認為，可負擔性的第三個支柱是這些經濟發展機遇，我們肯定會在未來五年內實現這些機會。因此，敬請期待在接下來的幾個月或幾季傳來這方面的好消息。所以，這就是我們將如何在可負擔性方面做出承諾，再次安撫州長的方式。

From a balance sheet perspective, we'll fund the plan as cost efficiently as possible. So we've really done a nice job reducing or minimizing equity needs to fund the growth. And so we try to fund the plan as efficiently as possible from a balance sheet perspective. And then we're going to be really focused on workforce planning and productivity to make sure that while we're executing the capital plan, we're doing it in a thoughtful way in terms of staffing and things of that nature. And so that just speaks to the confidence of our ability to weave in more capital investment into the plan.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們將以盡可能經濟高效的方式為該計劃提供資金。因此，我們在減少或最大限度地降低為成長提供資金所需的股權需求方面做得非常出色。因此，我們努力從資產負債表的角度出發，盡可能有效率地為該計劃提供資金。然後，我們將真正專注於勞動力規劃和生產力，以確保在執行資本計劃的同時，我們在人員配備等方面能夠深思熟慮。這正體現了我們對將更多資本投資融入計畫的能力充滿信心。

And I know the spirit of your question is, well, when will that lead to a higher growth CAGR? And I think the offsets we have to be mindful of is, first and foremost, as Garrick noted in his prepared remarks, we do compound off of actuals. And so we do take that quite seriously in delivering every year when we say 6% to 8% towards the high end, which for all intents and purposes is 7% to 8%. We plan to do that every year. So '26, then '27, then, '28. Think of it 7% to 8% for all intents and purposes toward that high end. And so we do have to take into account just the difficulty in achieving that. And so that is where we add in a little conservatism.

我知道你問題的真正意義是，那麼，什麼時候才能達到更高的複合年增長率？我認為我們必須注意的抵消因素是，首先，正如加里克在他的準備好的發言稿中指出的那樣，我們確實是根據實際數據進行複利計算的。因此，我們非常重視這一點，每年都努力實現我們所謂的 6% 到 8% 的高端目標，而實際上，這個目標實際上是 7% 到 8%。我們計劃每年都這樣做。所以是 '26'，然後 '27'，然後 '28'。可以把它理解為接近高端市場的 7% 到 8%。因此，我們必須考慮到實現這一目標的難度。所以，這就需要我們加入一些保守主義。

The other reality is when you think about the nature of our rate construct, we're not decoupled. We don't have any type of service restoration deferral mechanism, even though we effectively got one put in place this year. And so we do have to bake in a little bit of margin or contingency just given the uncertainty around weather, and that's both from a margin perspective as well as storm activity, which seems to intensify year-over-year.

另一個現實是，當你思考我們利率結構的本質時，你會發現我們不是脫鉤的。我們目前沒有任何服務恢復延期機制，儘管我們今年實際上已經建立了一個這樣的機制。因此，考慮到天氣的不確定性，我們必須預留一些餘地或應急措施，這既包括餘地本身，也包括風暴活動，而風暴活動似乎逐年加劇。

And so that has to be taken into account when we think about the offsets that would potentially prohibit us from growing at a higher clip. That said, if I go down memory lane, remember, we were one of the first utilities to go to 6% to 8% in 2016 when it was a 5% to 7% world.

因此，在考慮可能阻礙我們以更高速度成長的抵銷因素時，必須考慮到這一點。話雖如此，如果我回顧過去，請記住，在 2016 年，當世界平均為 5% 至 7% 時，我們是首批將收益率提高到 6% 至 8% 的公用事業公司之一。

So we're not afraid to grow at a higher clip if we can sustain it, but it has to be sustainable over a five-year period. And so we have to be mindful of that. And again, we have to take into account some of those natural offsets that impact our business that I just enumerated. Is that helpful?

所以，如果我們能夠維持這種成長速度，我們並不害怕以更高的速度成長，但這必須是五年內可持續的。所以我們必須注意這一點。此外，我們還必須考慮到我剛才列舉的那些影響我們業務的自然抵銷因素。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yeah. That is actually super helpful, Rejji. I appreciate the pieces. And I'll see you guys really soon. Thanks you, guys.

是的。雷吉，這真的很有幫助。我很喜歡這些作品。我很快就會和大家見面。謝謝大家。

Our next question comes from Andrew Weisel of Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自加拿大豐業銀行的安德魯‧韋塞爾。

Good morning, everybody. First, I just want to clarify something. The IRP-related spending opportunity of $5 billion, am I right, that won't be included in the February update for CapEx, right? I think that's what you said in the past given the timing of the regulatory approval. But the way you're talking about it this morning, I'm a little unsure. Is that still how you're thinking about it?

大家早安。首先，我想澄清一下。與 IRP 相關的 50 億美元支出機會，如果我沒記錯的話，不會包含在 2 月份的資本支出更新中，對嗎？考慮到監管部門批准的時間，我認為你之前也說過類似的話。但聽你今天早上這麼說，我有點不確定了。現在還是這麼想的嗎？

There has to be -- just like as Rejji enumerated, like when you look at the -- what it takes to put a turbine in the ground and when you look at some of these longer-term items like that in terms of EPC contracts as well as MISO queue, you have to be investing right now to be able to deliver over that five years. And so I see a portion of that filtering into this five-year plan on the IRP and particularly in the tail end of it, too, as you look to put some of this important equipment online.

就像 Rejji 列舉的那樣，例如當你考慮把一台渦輪機安裝到地面上需要什麼，以及像 EPC 合約和 MISO 排隊等一些長期專案時，你必須現在就進行投資，才能在未來五年內交付成果。因此，我認為其中一部分內容會滲透到 IRP 的五年計畫中，尤其是在計畫的後期，因為你們正在考慮將一些重要的設備上線。

Okay. Great. Good to hear, and that's helpful. Next question on the economic growth. You're still -- you have 450 megawatts out of the 900 megawatts in the plan. That certainly seems conservative. Maybe I'll just leave that as a comment.

好的。偉大的。很高興聽到這個消息，這很有幫助。下一個問題是關於經濟成長的。你目前只擁有計劃中 900 兆瓦中的 450 兆瓦。這看起來確實很保守。或許我就把它留作評論吧。

My question is, how much excess capacity do you currently have to serve that load with a couple of gigawatts potentially coming soon, how much slack do you have in the system versus how much would you need to match megawatt for megawatt.

我的問題是，考慮到即將增加幾吉瓦的電力負荷，你們目前有多少剩餘容量來滿足這些負荷？你們的系統有多少餘裕？與要達到每兆瓦的負荷相比，你們需要多少餘裕？

That's connected load. So that's not to be delivered or on the way. And so that's connected. And so we have the capacity to serve that today. And then there's a bit of excess capacity. And I'll just remind everyone, we continue to build out as a result of the clean energy law, additional capacity.

這是連接的負載。所以這件東西既不會交付，也不會在運送途中。所以它們是有關聯的。因此，我們今天有能力滿足這項需求。此外，還有一些過剩產能。我還要提醒大家，由於清潔能源法的實施，我們正在持續擴大產能。

So we're upwards of 1 gigawatt of renewables we're building this year. It will be a similar pattern next year. We're -- there's a number of battery storage projects that are underway as well, both self-build as well as purchase or power purchase agreements. And so a number of those things are already underway. So that capacity profile is expanding as we speak.

所以今年我們將建造超過1吉瓦的再生能源項目。明年情況也將類似。我們目前也有許多電池儲能項目正在進行中，包括自建項目以及購買或電力購買協議項目。因此，其中許多事情已經在進行中。因此，這種產能模式正在不斷擴大。

Okay. Very good. Then lastly, if I can, a question on Campbell. I know you haven't made any final decisions, but there have been some conversations about the plant potentially continuing to run maybe as long as the duration of President Trump's administration. So can you just kind of explain what kind of shape is the plant in? What kind of maintenance might be required if it were to run through 2028?

好的。非常好。最後，如果可以的話，我想問一個關於坎貝爾的問題。我知道你們還沒有做出最終決定，但是已經有一些討論，認為該工廠可能會一直運作到川普總統任期結束。你能大概描述一下這株植物的形狀嗎？如果運作到 2028 年，可能需要哪些類型的維護？

And how does the accounting work for the economics? I believe you're booking all the costs on the balance sheet, but maybe just kind of walk us through from a MISO perspective, from a tariff perspective, how does all that work in terms of cash and earnings impact for investors and for customers? Thank you.

那麼，會計是如何應用在經濟學上的呢？我相信你們已經把所有成本都記入了資產負債表，但能否從 MISO 的角度，從關稅的角度，給我們解釋一下，所有這些對現金流和收益，以及對投資者和客戶的影響是什麼？謝謝。

Yes, Andrew, great question. I'll start and then certainly hand it over to Rejji too. And so I first want to start from a people perspective. And that team out there has been absolutely amazing. As you might imagine, think about this from -- you're thinking about retirement in the plant in your next role, wherever it might be in the company, some going to retirement. And we just had a very flexible workforce that is committed to the success of that plant and following through with this order through the Department of Energy. So I can't say enough about our people and how they've responded. We're really in a great space from a people perspective.

是的，安德魯，問得好。我先開始，然後一定也會交給雷吉。因此，我首先想從人的角度來談談這個問題。那支球隊的表現簡直太棒了。您可以想像一下，您正在考慮退休後在工廠的下一個職位，無論它在公司內的哪個部門，有些人最終都會退休。我們擁有一支非常靈活的員工隊伍，他們致力於工廠的成功，並按照能源部的指示完成這項訂單。所以，我無法用言語來表達我對我們人民以及他們所做出的回應的感激之情。從員工的角度來看，我們現在的處境非常好。

And so we continue to see orders from the Department of Energy through the Federal Power Act. We expect those to continue for the long term, and we're prepared to continue to operate the plant and comply with those orders. And I want to remind everybody that what we proposed was that those costs be shared because the benefits go to MISO and not just to our customers, they go to MISO and the FERC supported that.

因此，我們繼續看到能源部透過《聯邦電力法》發布命令。我們預計這些情況會長期持續下去，我們已準備好繼續運作該工廠並遵守這些命令。我想提醒大家，我們提出的方案是分擔這些成本，因為收益歸 MISO 所有，而不僅僅是歸我們的客戶所有，聯邦能源監管委員會也支持這項方案。

And so those costs as well as the offsetting revenue are spread across 9 MISO states, the North and Central regions, the MISO appropriately. And that order from the Department of Energy has laid out a clear path to cost recovery. And we're heading down that path and have great confidence in our ability to recover.

因此，這些成本以及抵銷的收入將分攤到 9 個 MISO 州、北部和中部地區，MISO 也相應地分攤了這些成本和收入。能源部的這項命令為成本回收制定了明確的路徑。我們正朝著這個方向前進，並且對我們的復甦能力充滿信心。

And so that's the nature of it. We'll continue to invest in the plant thoughtfully. Those costs would be incurred and we've recovered those through that process. But let me hand it over to Rejji to talk a little more about this.

這就是事情的本質。我們將繼續謹慎地對該工廠進行投資。這些費用確實會產生，但我們透過這個過程收回了這些費用。但讓我把麥克風交給雷吉，讓他再多談談這個問題。

Yes. Thank you, Garrick, and thank you, Andrew, for the question. Yes. So we're currently treating all the costs associated with operating the Campbell units as a regulatory asset. And so operating and maintenance expense, there have been minimal capital investment. But if we did incur capital investments, that would all flow through regulatory asset line item, which we've established. And then as it pertains to -- and that would amortize over time as we get recovery.

是的。謝謝加里克，也謝謝安德魯提出的問題。是的。因此，我們目前將與坎貝爾工廠營運相關的所有成本視為監管資產。因此，在營運和維護費用方面，資本投資非常少。但如果我們確實進行了資本投資，那麼所有投資都將透過我們已經設立的監管資產項目進行結算。至於這方面——隨著經濟復甦，這些成本會隨著時間的推移而攤提。

And so it's important to note, too, from a customer bill perspective, first and foremost, once we have started to receive recovery of the investments and of the spend from MISO North and Central customers based on the construct we outlined with FERC, which they approved in our 202 complaint, we would refund Michigan customers for their share that they've already contributed. And so I think it's important to note that we are trying our best to make sure that Michigan customers are held harmless as we continue to operate the plants to the benefit of the region, as Garrick noted.

因此，從客戶帳單的角度來看，同樣重要的是，首先，一旦我們開始根據我們與聯邦能源監管委員會 (FERC) 制定的方案（該方案已在我們的 202 投訴中獲得批准）從 MISO 北部和中部客戶處收回投資和支出，我們將向密西根州客戶退還他們已經繳納的份額。因此，我認為有必要指出，正如加里克所指出的那樣，我們正在盡最大努力確保密西根州的客戶不會受到損害，同時我們將繼續運營這些工廠，造福該地區。

And so again, regulatory asset treatment that would amortize down as we get recovery on the spend, and we would be basically refunding Michigan customers who have already paid for some of those investments and some of that spend. And that refund of Michigan customers would be funded by MISO North and Central customers. Is that helpful?

因此，監管資產處理方式將隨著支出的回收而攤銷，我們基本上會向已經為部分投資和部分支出付費的密西根州客戶退款。而密西根州用戶的退款將由 MISO 北部和中部地區的用戶負擔。這樣有幫助嗎？

Extremely. Yeah, thank you so much for the details.

極其。是的，非常感謝您提供的詳細資訊。

Travis Miller, Morningstar.

崔維斯米勒，晨星公司。

Good morning everyone. So now that you have that REP in hand, I was wondering if you could characterize some of how you're thinking about the timing and the mix between the self-build and the PPA. So can you walk me through -- obviously, you've got that $10 billion number out there, but what does that mean in terms of what you plan to build timing and then PPA mix?

大家早安。既然你已經拿到了 REP，我想知道你是否可以描述一下你對自建和 PPA 之間的時機和組合的一些想法。所以你能詳細解釋一下嗎——顯然，你們提到了100億美元的數字，但這對你們的建設計劃、時間安排以及購電協議組合意味著什麼？

We're very pleased with the outcome from that renewable energy plan. As I stated, additional 8 gigawatts of solar, 2.8 gigawatts of wind. And just given the safe harbor provisions, we're going to want more of that in the first five years, right? That makes sense from a cost to our customers' perspective. And we've got those assets with those projects laid out.

我們對再生能源計劃的成果非常滿意。正如我所說，新增8吉瓦太陽能發電，2.8吉瓦風力發電。鑑於安全港條款，我們希望在前五年內有更多這樣的機會，對吧？從客戶的成本角度來看，這是合理的。我們已經擁有了這些資產，並且制定了相應的專案計劃。

So we have safe harbor really out to 2029. And so that will be the plan. And it will be competitively bid. And we've been doing that for a long time. And more often than not, we win the competitive bid because of the projects we're putting together and our familiarity with Michigan. And so there's going to be a good portion of self-build in that mix.

因此，我們的安全港條款實際上可以有效延長至 2029 年。這就是計劃。將會進行公開招標。我們一直以來都是這麼做的。而且，我們往往能夠贏得競標，因為我們所規劃的項目以及我們對密西根州的熟悉程度。因此，其中將會有相當一部分是自建房。

But remember, I'm not opposed to a PPA either because I really view that as a capital-light way of earnings, right? We're going to earn roughly 9%. It's capital-light. It's a derisked process. I'll let a developer build an asset, build wind, build solar, it will be a mix. And we'll take the offtake of that.

但請記住，我也不反對購電協議，因為我真的認為這是一種輕資本的獲利方式，對吧？我們大概能賺到9%。它屬於輕資產項目。這是一個風險較低的過程。我會讓開發商來建造資產，建造風能設施，建造太陽能設施，這將是一個混合體。我們將承接那部分工作。

And so again, that's going to -- that's kind of how we see it playing out going forward. And so when I say we're building about a gigawatt now and we'll have a gigawatt next year, we'll be building. It will be a mix of self-build as well as developers.

所以，我們認為事情接下來的發展大概就是這樣。所以當我說我們現在正在建造大約 1 吉瓦的發電設施，明年我們將擁有 1 吉瓦的發電設施時，我們指的是我們正在建造的發電設施。這將是自建房和開發商建造房屋的混合體。

Yes. And Travis, this is Rejji. All I would add to just give you some of the underlying assumptions that support the $10 billion that we have in that sort of CapEx or customer investment opportunity section of the slide. We're assuming just for analytical purposes, about 50/50 owned versus PPA. And so that $10 billion assumes 50% of the solar opportunity. So think about that 8 gigawatts. We're assuming half of that we would own. And for the wind, the 2.8 gigawatts, it's a greater assumption of 50%. I'd say it's closer to 100%, but I don't want to split hairs here.

是的。崔維斯，這位是雷吉。我只想補充一點，說明支撐我們在投影片中「資本支出或客戶投資機會」部分所列 100 億美元的基本假設。我們僅出於分析目的假設，自有電力與購電協議 (PPA) 的比例約為 50/50。因此，這100億美元是基於太陽能發展機會的50%而設定的。所以想想那8吉瓦吧。我們假設其中一半將歸我們所有。至於風能，2.8 吉瓦，假設其發電量達到 50% 則較為合理。我覺得接近100%，但我不想在這裡吹毛求疵。

And so that's the working assumption. So clearly, if we end up owning more of that solar opportunity, there could be upward pressure in that $10 billion estimate. If we end up PPA more through a competitive bid structure, then there could be some downward pressure on that. But as Garrick noted, there's just great financial flexibility inherent in the law, and it's nice to have the opportunity to earn in a CapEx-light fashion, and that gives us more balance sheet capacity to deploy potentially to the IRP opportunity, the $5 billion on the page and/or the $10 billion of distribution-related investment opportunities.

這就是我們的工作假設。因此很明顯，如果我們最終擁有更多太陽能投資機會，那麼100億美元的估值可能會面臨上行壓力。如果最終我們更採用競爭性招標結構來簽訂購電協議，那麼購電協議價格可能會面臨一些下行壓力。但正如加里克指出的那樣，法律本身就具有很大的財務靈活性，能夠以輕資本支出的方式賺錢是件好事，這使我們有了更大的資產負債表容量，可以將其部署到 IRP 機會、50 億美元的計劃和/或 100 億美元的與分配相關的投資機會中。

Okay. Perfect. You answered my follow-up question. So I appreciate that. I'll throw one more other follow-up question, different subject, but the manufacturing growth, the new customers you're seeing there and the new pipeline customers, can you characterize that, not just industry, but are these expansion of existing? Are these brand-new customers coming from somewhere else? Are they onshoring, reshoring, however you want to say that?

好的。完美的。你回答了我的後續問題。我很感激。我再提一個後續問題，雖然主題不同，但關於製造業的成長、您看到的新客戶以及新的潛在客戶，您能否描述一下，不僅僅是行業增長，這些是現有客戶的擴張嗎？這些新客戶來自其他地方嗎？他們是在進行本土化生產嗎？或者不管你怎麼表達，是把生產遷回國內嗎？

Yes, it's all of the above. It's all of the above. And I mentioned like here's a little surprising fact about Michigan. There are over 4,000 businesses in the aerospace and defense industry in Michigan. And so that's an example of where we're seeing new customers and existing customers grow in Michigan and just manufacturing. We're seeing advanced manufacturing. We're seeing a lot of food processing.

是的，以上皆是。以上皆是。我當時提到，這是關於密西根州的一個令人驚訝的小事實。密西根州有超過 4000 家航空航太和國防工業企業。所以，這就是我們在密西根州以及製造業領域看到新客戶和現有客戶成長的一個例子。我們正在見證先進製造業的崛起。我們看到食品加工產業蓬勃發展。

One of the unique facts about Michigan is the second most diverse state when it comes to an agriculture perspective, and there's been a general trend with food processing to move closer to the fields, to move closer to the farms. And so we're seeing everything from dairy products to baked goods that are continuing to grow in the state, which is a nice business for Michigan and really is a nice path to jobs, supply chains, home starts and the like.

密西根州的獨特之處在於，就農業角度而言，它是第二大最多元化的州，而且食品加工也呈現出一種向田地、向農場遷移的總體趨勢。因此，我們看到從乳製品到烘焙食品等各種產品在該州持續成長，這對密西根州來說是一項不錯的生意，也是通往就業、供應鏈、房屋開工等方面的良好途徑。

Okay, great. I appreciate all that. Thanks so much.

好的，太好了。我非常感激。非常感謝。

Michael Sullivan, Wolfe Research.

Michael Sullivan，Wolfe Research。

Hey, good morning. Circling back on the data center or large load customer pipeline. Can we just get more of a feel for the time line of the ramp for some of these? I think you had said on the last call, the 1 gigawatt was like a '29, '30 type time frame, but maybe the rest of that final stage bucket, what sort of ramp time line are we looking at?

嘿，早安。再回到資料中心或大負載客戶管道的問題上來。我們能否更清楚地了解其中一些項目的進度安排？我想你在上次通話中說過，1 吉瓦的裝機容量大概會在 2029 年、2030 年左右實現，但是對於最後階段的其他部分，我們預計會是什麼樣的產能爬坡時間表呢？

You're correct in what we shared on the one -- the Q2 one, the one that's the bottom of the funnel at the end of the pipeline there, late 2029, early 2030 for the, I would call it, first electrons and then ramp up thereafter. I will share with you the other two that are referenced there are a little earlier in the process in the five-year window, and we're able to deliver on those from a supply perspective, from an infrastructure perspective as well. So that gives you -- hopefully gives you enough look into the pipeline and final stages, Michael.

您說的沒錯，我們之前分享的那個項目——Q2 項目，也就是管道末端的漏斗底部，我稱之為 2029 年末、2030 年初的第一批電子，然後在此之後逐步增加產量。我還要和你們分享一下，這裡提到的另外兩個項目在五年計畫的早期階段，從供應和基礎設施的角度來看，我們都能實現這些目標。希望這能讓你對整個流程和最後階段有足夠的了解，麥可。

Okay. Very helpful, thank you. And then, Rejji, I know you get asked this all the time, but just how to think about how much incremental equity comes with each dollar of incremental CapEx as you get ready to refresh all that? And is there anything in the low tariff that's pending here that maybe helps with some of that in terms of cash recovery?

好的。非常有用，謝謝。還有，Rejji，我知道你經常被問到這個問題，但是當你準備更新所有這些資產時，應該如何考慮每一美元的新增資本支出會帶來多少新增權益呢？那麼，目前低關稅政策中是否有任何內容可能有助於現金回收？

Yes, Michael, thanks for the question and good morning as always. Yes. So I would say that the historical sensitivity between CapEx and common equity is still, I think, a good working assumption. And so for those who are unfamiliar with it, for every dollar of CapEx that's incremental to our plan, assume about $0.40 of common equity would need to be issued. We always try to put downward pressure on that, and we've been quite effective.

是的，邁克爾，謝謝你的提問，一如既往地祝你早安。是的。所以我認為，資本支出與普通股之間的歷史敏感度仍然是一個很好的工作假設。因此，對於那些不熟悉此概念的人來說，我們計劃中每增加 1 美元的資本支出，就假設需要發行約 0.40 美元的普通股。我們一直試圖對此施加向下壓力，而且我們在這方面取得了相當大的成效。

Obviously, over the last couple of years after the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act, we've been monetizing tax credits, which has been a helpful vehicle for financing. We also, just given the nature of our rate construct in a forward-looking test year, we have very strong cash flow generation. And so I tend to not need quite as much equity for CapEx.

顯然，在《通貨膨脹抑制法案》頒布後的過去幾年裡，我們一直在將稅收抵免貨幣化，這已成為一種有用的融資工具。此外，就我們前瞻性測試年份的利率結構而言，我們也擁有非常強勁的現金流。因此，我通常不需要那麼多股權用於資本支出。

And with these other mechanisms, and I think it just is always worth repeating that we earn 9% on PPAs, and that's codified in the statute. That also offers an opportunity to put downward pressure on equity needs. But again, the rule of thumb for now should be for every dollar of CapEx, we'll probably have to raise about $0.40 or so of equity and hybrids offering opportunities as well, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that we don't usually incorporate that into our plan, but it does create an opportunity.

加上其他這些機制，我認為值得重申的是，我們可以從購電協議中獲得 9% 的收益，這一點已在法規中明確規定。這也為下調股權需求提供了機會。但再次強調，目前的經驗法則是，每投入 1 美元的資本支出，我們可能需要籌集約 0.40 美元的股權和混合證券，同時也提供一些機會。如果我不提我們通常不會把這納入我們的計劃，那就太失職了，但這確實創造了一個機會。

And so those are the ways in which we could put downward pressure on that sensitivity. But again, in the absence of any new information, just assume for now $0.40 of equity for every dollar of CapEx. With respect to the data center tariff, while certainly, we have been very focused on making sure that we are minimizing stranded asset risk for an incumbent customers and making sure we have the right protections in place. And there's a little bit more margin given that it's a general primary demand rate versus our most aggressive economic development rates.

因此，我們可以用這些方法來降低這種敏感性。但是，在沒有任何新資訊的情況下，目前就假設每投入 1 美元的資本支出，就有 0.40 美元的股權。關於資料中心收費標準，我們當然一直非常注重確保最大限度地降低現有客戶的擱淺資產風險，並確保我們採取適當的保護措施。而且，考慮到這是整體初級需求率，而不是我們最激進的經濟發展率，所以還有更大的空間。

So you get a little more margin for that. I don't think there's really, at the moment, any working assumptions you should add where we would see significant cash flow generation that would reduce our equity needs if there's additional CapEx.

這樣你就能獲得更大的利潤空間。我認為目前還沒有任何需要補充的工作假設，即如果增加資本支出，我們會看到顯著的現金流產生，從而減少我們的股權需求。

Now who knows over time, based on discussions with select data centers, there may be things that we can incorporate into a potential agreement with the data center. But for now, I would assume, again, most of the provisions in the data center tariff are focused on protecting our incumbent customers. Is that helpful, Michael?

誰知道呢，隨著時間的推移，透過與部分資料中心的討論，我們或許可以將一些內容納入與資料中心的潛在協議中。但就目前而言，我再次認為，資料中心資費中的大部分條款都集中在保護我們現有的客戶。這樣有幫助嗎，麥可？

Very much, thank you.

非常感謝。

Thank you. We currently have no further questions. So I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Garrick Rochow for any further remarks.

謝謝。我們目前沒有其他問題。那麼，我將把電話轉回給加里克羅喬先生，請他再發表任何評論。

Thanks, Alex. I'd like to thank you for joining us today. I look forward to seeing you at EEI. Take care. Stay safe.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。感謝各位今天蒞臨。期待在EEI見到你。小心。注意安全。

This concludes today's conference. We thank everyone for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。