CMS能源 (CMS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the CMS Energy 2025 second-quarter results. The earnings news release issued earlier today and the presentation used in this webcast are available on the CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家早安，歡迎參加 CMS Energy 2025 第二季業績發表會。今天稍早發布的收益新聞稿和本次網路廣播中使用的簡報可在 CMS Energy 網站的投資者關係部分找到。此通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）

Just a reminder that there will be a rebroadcast of this conference call today beginning at 12:00 PM Eastern Time running through August 7. This presentation is also being webcast and is available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section.

需要提醒的是，本次電話會議將於今天美國東部時間中午 12 點開始重播，持續至 8 月 7 日。該簡報也將進行網路直播，您可以在 CMS Energy 網站的「投資者關係」部分找到。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Jason Shore, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話轉給財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁 Jason Shore 先生。

Thank you, Seb. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me are Garrick Rochow, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rejji Hayes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，塞布。大家早安，感謝大家今天加入我們。與我一起的還有總裁兼執行長 Garrick Rochow 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Rejji Hayes。

This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings for more information regarding the risks and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix and posted on our website.

本簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述具有風險和不確定性。有關可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的風險和其他因素的更多信息，請參閱我們的 SEC 文件。本簡報也包括非公認會計準則衡量指標。這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳已包含在附錄中並發佈在我們的網站上。

And now, I'll turn the call over to Garrick.

現在，我將把電話轉給加里克。

Thank you, Jason, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Our investment thesis, robust and solid, continuing our track record of industry-leading results. You know this, and you have seen the results it delivers.

謝謝你，傑森，也謝謝大家今天的到來。我們的投資理念強勁而穩健，延續了我們行業領先業績的記錄。您知道這一點，並且已經看到了它帶來的結果。

As I've said before, Michigan is open for business. Today, I'm pleased to announce we have reached an agreement with a new data center which is expected to add up to 1 gigawatt of load. This load is incremental to our plan and part of the 9-gigawatt pipeline that we have been working to locate in our service area. We expect this load, early ramp, to start to show up in the latter portion of the five-year plan. We continue to see positive momentum with data centers within the 9-gigawatt pipeline and expect additional progress once we finalize the data center tariff.

正如我之前所說，密西根州對商業持開放態度。今天，我很高興地宣布，我們已經與一個新資料中心達成協議，預計該資料中心的負載將增加 1 千兆瓦。這個負載是我們計畫的增量，也是我們一直努力在服務區內定位的 9 千兆瓦管道的一部分。我們預計，這種負荷的早期成長將在五年計畫的後期開始顯現。我們繼續看到 9 千兆瓦管道內的資料中心呈現積極勢頭，並預計一旦我們最終確定資料中心關稅，將會取得進一步進展。

In addition to load growth from data centers, Michigan is on the move. Grand Rapids, the heart of our electric service territory, was recently ranked the number one city on the rise in the US by LinkedIn, highlighting their diverse industries from tech, insurance, manufacturing, and healthcare. This area is growing nicely, bringing jobs and people to the state.

除了資料中心的負載成長之外，密西根州也在不斷發展。大急流城是我們電力服務中心，最近被領英評為美國崛起第一的城市，突顯了其在科技、保險、製造和醫療保健等多元化領域的發展。這個地區發展良好，為該州帶來了就業機會和人口。

And once again, CNBC ranked Michigan as the top 10 best state for doing business. And we are seeing it. As I shared in Q1, we continue to see strong housing starts, alterations, as well as upgrades and relocations, all signs of positive growth among residential and commercial customers. All this drives our long-term annual sales growth estimates of 2% to 3%. And remember, this is before this new data center is fully online. We're excited about and committed to Michigan's future prosperity, and we are prepared and ready to serve its growing energy needs.

CNBC 再次將密西根州評為十大最佳經商州之一。我們也看到了這一點。正如我在第一季所分享的，我們繼續看到強勁的住房開工、改建以及升級和搬遷，所有這些都是住宅和商業客戶積極成長的跡象。所有這些都推動了我們對長期年銷售額成長 2% 至 3% 的預測。請記住，這是在該新資料中心完全上線之前。我們對密西根州未來的繁榮感到興奮並致力於此，我們已準備好滿足其日益增長的能源需求。

On this next slide, I want to connect a few dots, which highlight the investment opportunities we see above and beyond our five-year plan. And specifically, I want to share some early insight into our upcoming integrated resource plan filing. Let me start here.

在下一張投影片中，我想連結幾個點，突出我們在五年計畫之外看到的投資機會。具體來說，我想分享一些有關我們即將提交的綜合資源計劃的早期見解。讓我從這裡開始。

A long runway of customer investments is great, but isn't sustainable if your customers cannot afford them. So I like starting with customer affordability. What we know to be true is that growing demand, like I shared on the previous slide, enables longer-term cost savings for our customers. As our load grows, we can spread fixed costs over a larger customer base, a win for all.

長期的客戶投資固然很好，但如果客戶無法承擔，那麼這種投資就無法持續。所以我喜歡從客戶的承受能力開始。我們知道的事實是，正如我在上一張投影片中分享的那樣，不斷增長的需求可以為我們的客戶帶來長期成本節約。隨著負載的成長，我們可以將固定成本分攤到更大的客戶群，實現多方共贏。

Add to it our ability to realize savings through the CE Way, episodic cost-saving opportunities and our energy waste reduction program, and we have multiple ways to keep bills affordable for our customers. It is our strong focus on these cost-saving opportunities that keep bills affordable, both gas and electric, and allow us to make needed customer investments. And there are many customer investment opportunities, greater than $25 billion, above and beyond our five-year plan.

再加上我們透過 CE Way 實現節約的能力、階段性的成本節約機會和我們的能源浪費減少計劃，我們有多種方法可以讓客戶負擔得起帳單。我們高度重視這些節省成本的機會，以保持燃氣和電費的可負擔性，並使我們能夠進行必要的客戶投資。此外，還有許多客戶投資機會，總額超過 250 億美元，超出了我們的五年計畫。

Now, we've talked previously about the investments needed in our electric grid, which drive resiliency and reliability for our customers through our electric reliability roadmap. In addition, we have important investments clearly articulated in our Renewable Energy Plan, or REP, to meet Michigan's clean energy law. And today, I want to highlight our Integrated Resource Plan, or IRP, which will file in mid-2026.

現在，我們之前已經討論過電網所需的投資，這些投資透過我們的電力可靠性路線圖為我們的客戶提供彈性和可靠性。此外，我們在再生能源計畫（REP）中明確闡述了重要投資，以滿足密西根州的清潔能源法。今天，我想重點介紹一下我們的綜合資源計劃（IRP），該計劃將於 2026 年中期提交。

We are still preparing for this filing, but getting a clearer picture on what will be required for the future. As I mentioned, we are building renewables required by the law and included in the REP, which provide energy but limited capacity. Our IRP will primarily address capacity.

我們仍在為此次申請做準備，但對未來的需求有了更清晰的認識。正如我所提到的，我們正在建造法律要求並包含在 REP 中的可再生能源，它們可以提供能源，但容量有限。我們的 IRP 將主要解決容量問題。

When we model a 2% to 3% sales growth that we are realizing, the need to replace plants, existing capacity that will retire over the next five to seven years, and the need to replace a large PPA that will expire in 2030, the model points to additional storage and gas capacity. We anticipate needing to build more storage than the amount required by the 2023 energy law. We currently see this as a mix of owned and PPAs with the financial compensation mechanism. And of course, we'll take advantage of supportive tax credits for storage.

當我們模擬我們正在實現的 2% 到 3% 的銷售增長、更換工廠的需求、未來五到七年內將退役的現有產能以及更換將於 2030 年到期的大型 PPA 的需求時，該模型指向額外的存儲和天然氣容量。我們預計需要建造的儲存容量將超過 2023 年能源法所要求的容量。我們目前認為這是自有電力和電力購買協議以及財務補償機制的混合體。當然，我們將利用儲存空間支援稅收抵免。

We also anticipate new gas capacity at multiple locations, and we are well into the planning and preparations to realize this need. Our first cut looks like an additional $5 billion of opportunity outside the five-year plan, but understand that this is an early number and could be higher. We'll continue to keep you updated as the preparation continues prior to this filing of this important IRP.

我們也預計多個地點將增加天然氣產能，並且我們正在做好充分的規劃和準備以滿足這一需求。我們的首次削減看起來是在五年計劃之外又增加了 50 億美元的機會，但要知道這是一個早期的數字，可能會更高。在提交此重要 IRP 之前的準備工作仍在繼續，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況。

As I've shared before, CMS has a long history of working effectively with all administrations, and I continue to be proud of our agility as the federal environment continues to evolve. Let's start with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and how it impacts the utility. As we understand the provisions today, our renewable projects within the five-year financial plan are well positioned to meet timelines and requirements to receive full production and investment tax credits as well as transferability through 2029.

正如我之前所分享的，CMS 長期以來一直與所有政府部門有效合作，隨著聯邦環境的不斷發展，我仍然為我們的敏捷性感到自豪。讓我們先從《一項偉大的美麗法案》及其對公用事業的影響開始。根據我們今天對這些條款的理解，我們五年財政計劃內的可再生能源項目完全有能力滿足時間表和要求，獲得全額生產和投資稅收抵免以及到 2029 年的可轉讓性。

These derisk $4.5 billion of capital, the renewable portion of the five-year plan at the utility. It also ensures full transferability of the tax credits, which Rejji will summarize in a moment. This puts us well on track for the 2030 renewable requirement in Michigan's energy law in a way that maintains affordability for our customers.

這些措施降低了 45 億美元資本的風險，這是該公用事業公司五年計畫中再生能源部分的風險。它還確保了稅收抵免的完全可轉移性，Rejji 稍後將對此進行總結。這使我們能夠順利滿足密西根州能源法中 2030 年可再生能源的要求，同時又能確保客戶的可負擔性。

And recall that to the degree we see affordability concerns post-2029, we have options within the law to mitigate costs, including out-of-state PPAs where capacity factors may be higher or an extension to the compliance period. At a minimum, we're seeing cost savings on self-build projects through good lean engineering, the CE Way, to further take costs out for our customers.

回想一下，就我們對 2029 年後的負擔能力問題的程度而言，我們可以在法律範圍內選擇降低成本，包括容量係數可能更高的州外 PPA 或延長合規期。至少，我們看到透過良好的精益工程（CE Way）在自建項目上節省了成本，從而進一步為我們的客戶降低了成本。

Now, let me address NorthStar. Again, this business makes up approximately 5% of the earnings mix, so it is small. With the majority of the growth at Dearborn Industrial Generation, or DIG, with energy and capacity sales, the renewables portion of the business is very small, where we typically complete one to two solar projects a year with utility-like returns or better.

現在，讓我來談談 NorthStar。同樣，這項業務約佔收益組合的 5%，因此規模較小。迪爾伯恩工業發電公司 (DIG) 的大部分成長來自能源和容量銷售，再生能源部分的業務非常小，我們通常每年完成一到兩個太陽能項目，獲得與公用事業相當或更好的回報。

At NorthStar, our renewable projects are safe harbor through 2027, with some options in 2028. Many of these projects are already contracted with off-takers, material secured, and a solid plan to execute, including strong contractual language.

在 NorthStar，我們的再生能源專案將安全運行至 2027 年，並在 2028 年提供一些選擇。許多此類項目已經與承購商簽訂了合同，材料已到位，並製定了周密的執行計劃，包括強有力的合同語言。

As we move forward, we'll continue to evaluate the need for capital across the business, as we always do. We'll be mindful of the return on those investments. In light of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill in subsequent executive order, we're using a sharp pencil in the five-year planning process, which is well underway. This includes growing value at DIG and recontracting both energy and capacity as both markets continue to be strong and the ability and willingness to shift capital to utility investments that benefit our customers.

隨著我們不斷前進，我們將一如既往地繼續評估整個業務的資本需求。我們會關注這些投資的回報。鑑於《一個大美麗法案》在隨後的行政命令中的通過，我們正在精心製定五年規劃，目前正在順利進行中。這包括增加 DIG 的價值以及在兩個市場持續強勁的情況下重新簽訂能源和產能合同，以及將資本轉移到有利於客戶的公用事業投資的能力和意願。

Shifting to the Federal Power Act 90-day emergency order. In May, we were ordered by the Department of Energy, or DOE, to continue to operate our J.H. Campbell coal facility. We are complying with that order and dispatching into MISO. We are also currently reviewing our maintenance and investment plans for the facility, should we see a push for longer-term use.

轉向《聯邦電力法》90天緊急命令。五月，美國能源部 (DOE) 命令我們繼續營運 J.H. Campbell 煤炭工廠。我們正在遵守該命令並派遣人員前往 MISO。我們目前也正在審查該設施的維護和投資計劃，以期推動其長期使用。

Keep in mind, the DOE's order provides for cost recovery. We have filed a request for recovery from all MISO North and Central customers who are served and benefited from this supply resource. We expect a positive outcome from this proceeding that will be good for all stakeholders.

請記住，能源部的命令規定了成本回收。我們已經向所有接受並受益於此供應資源的 MISO 北部和中部客戶提交了回收請求。我們期待這項進程能夠取得對所有利害關係人有利的正面成果。

Finally, our minimal exposure to the auto industry, diverse supply chain, and continued focus on moving to US-based suppliers further limits potential tariff impacts. Recall, much of the exposure is related to capital equipment, which means any impact would be spread over the life of the asset and with minimal impact to earnings and customer rates. To date, we've only experienced about $250,000 in increases. Again, I appreciate the team's efforts on multiple fronts to continue to position CMS Energy for success in what is a dynamic federal environment.

最後，我們對汽車產業的最低限度的接觸、多樣化的供應鏈以及持續專注於轉向美國供應商，進一步限制了潛在的關稅影響。回想一下，大部分風險敞口都與資本設備有關，這意味著任何影響都會分散到資產的整個使用壽命內，對收益和客戶費率的影響微乎其微。到目前為止，我們的增幅僅約為 25 萬美元。再次，我讚賞團隊在多個方面所做的努力，使 CMS Energy 在充滿活力的聯邦環境中繼續取得成功。

I want to take a moment to highlight Michigan's constructive regulatory environment. Last month, the commission approved the first-ever storm deferral at the utility, a new precedent for Michigan. It speaks to our performance during the March and April ice storms and the constructive nature of this commission. While this isn't a unique aspect in the utility sector, it was noted as a best practice by Liberty Consulting in the third-party distribution audit and was approved by the commission in a timely fashion. This is a great step to strengthen an already strong regulatory environment in the state.

我想花點時間強調密西根州的建設性監管環境。上個月，該委員會批准了該公用事業公司有史以來第一次推遲風暴運營，這在密西根州開創了先例。它體現了我們在三月和四月冰暴期間的表現以及委員會的建設性。雖然這在公用事業領域並不是一個獨特之處，但它被 Liberty Consulting 在第三方分銷審計中視為最佳實踐，並及時獲得了委員會的批准。這對於加強該州本已強大的監管環境來說是一大步。

We continue to be supportive of the Liberty audit of our distribution system. It was commissioned by the MPSC and the results point directly to the important investment needed to improve reliability for our customers and bolsters the game plan we laid out in our reliability roadmap. We will continue to weave the audit findings into future rate cases.

我們繼續支持對我們的分銷系統進行自由審計。該調查由 MPSC 委託進行，其結果直接表明需要進行重要投資來提高客戶的可靠性，並支持我們在可靠性路線圖中製定的遊戲計劃。我們將繼續把審計結果融入未來的利率案例。

Now jumping to the rate cases. On the electric side, our current rate case filing is larger than what you've seen from us in the past at a $460 million revenue increase and is well aligned to significantly improve reliability for our customers through additional capital investments and O&M, including vegetation management. To frame this case from an affordability perspective, if we were to achieve 100% of the rate case asked, our residential electric bills will continue to be below the national average.

現在跳到利率案例。在電力方面，我們目前的費率案例申請比過去看到的要多，收入增加了 4.6 億美元，並且可以透過額外的資本投資和 O&M（包括植被管理）顯著提高客戶的可靠性。從可負擔性的角度來看，如果我們實現所要求的費率的 100%，我們的住宅電費將繼續低於全國平均水平。

In our gas case, we saw very constructive recommendation from the staff supporting approximately 80% of our revised ask and about 95% of our capital. And while we're always open to settlement, we're confident in the investments we need to make in the quality of our case and comfortable going the distance to a fully adjudicated order.

在我們的天然氣案例中，我們看到了來自員工的非常建設性的建議，支持了我們大約 80% 的修訂要價和大約 95% 的資本。雖然我們始終對和解持開放態度，但我們對需要在案件品質上進行的投資充滿信心，並且願意盡一切努力獲得完全裁決的命令。

For our longer-term filings, we expect an order in our Renewable Energy Plan, or REP, by mid-September. Our REP will further define our renewable investments and feeds into our Integrated Resource Plan that will file in mid-2026. We are making important investments for our customers in the future of our growing state, and we continue to see constructive outcomes time and time again.

對於我們的長期備案，我們預計再生能源計畫（REP）將於 9 月中旬收到命令。我們的 REP 將進一步明確我們的再生能源投資，並將其納入將於 2026 年中期提交的綜合資源計劃。我們正在為客戶對我們不斷發展的未來進行重要投資，並且我們一次又一次地看到建設性的成果。

Finally, I'd like to take a moment to welcome our new commissioner, Shaquila Myers, who was appointed earlier this month by the Governor. Commissioner Myers has an impressive background. She was a member of the Governor's senior leadership team and previously led Speaker of the House Joe Tate's office as his Chief of Staff. She understands the importance of economic development to bring good paying jobs to Michigan and played an instrumental role in the development of the 2023 energy law. We look forward to working with commissioner Myers and the rest of the commission and staff, as we have in the past, to reach constructive regulatory outcomes.

最後，我想花點時間歡迎我們的新專員 Shaquila Myers，她是本月早些時候由州長任命的。邁爾斯委員有著令人印象深刻的背景。她是州長高階領導團隊的成員，曾擔任眾議院議長喬·泰特辦公室的幕僚長。她深知經濟發展對於為密西根州帶來高薪工作的重要性，並在 2023 年能源法的發展中發揮了重要作用。我們期待與邁爾斯委員以及委員會其他成員和工作人​​員一起合作，就像我們過去所做的那樣，以達成建設性的監管成果。

Now on to the financials for the quarter. We are in a strong position heading into the second half of the year. For the first half, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.73, well ahead of our budget and where we had planned to be according to our full-year guidance. The team has delivered strong performance, particularly in Q2 on all fronts: regulatory, operations, and financial.

現在來看看本季的財務狀況。進入下半年，我們處於有利地位。上半年，我們報告的調整後每股收益為 1.73 美元，遠高於我們的預算，也達到了我們全年預期的目標。該團隊表現強勁，尤其是在第二季的監管、營運和財務等各個方面。

Therefore, we remain confident in this year's guidance and long-term outlook and are reaffirming all our financial objectives. Our full-year guidance remains at $3.54 to $3.60 per share with continued confidence toward the high end. Longer term, we continue to guide toward the high end of our adjusted EPS growth range of 6% to 8%.

因此，我們對今年的指導和長期前景仍然充滿信心，並重申我們所有的財務目標。我們對全年的預期仍為每股 3.54 美元至 3.60 美元，並且對高端前景仍有信心。長期來看，我們將繼續引導調整後的每股盈餘成長範圍達到 6% 至 8% 的高端。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Rejji.

說完這些，我會把電話交給 Rejji。

Thank you, Garrick, and good morning, everyone. On slide 9, you'll see our standard waterfall chart, which illustrates the key drivers impacting our financial performance for the first six months of 2025 and our year-to-go expectations.

謝謝你，加里克，大家早安。在第 9 張投影片上，您將看到我們的標準瀑布圖，該圖說明了影響我們 2025 年前六個月財務表現和今年預期的關鍵驅動因素。

For clarification purposes, all of the variance analyses herein are in comparison to 2024, both on a year-to-date and a year-to-go basis. In summary, through the first half of 2025, we delivered adjusted net income of $518 million, or $1.73 per share, which compares favorably to the same period in 2024, largely due to the absence of unfavorable weather from the prior year and continued constructive regulatory outcomes.

為了澄清起見，本文中的所有差異分析均與 2024 年進行比較，包括年初至今和去年同期。總而言之，截至 2025 年上半年，我們實現調整後淨收入 5.18 億美元，即每股 1.73 美元，與 2024 年同期相比有所好轉，這主要是由於沒有出現上一年的不利天氣以及持續的建設性監管結果。

To elaborate on the top-line impact of weather, favorable weather in the second quarter, largely in the month of June, coupled with a relatively normal winter in Q1, provided an aggregate benefit of $0.32 per share of positive variance. And it's worth noting that the weather outlook in our service territory remains quite good for the balance of the summer. Rate relief, net of investment-related expenses, resulted in $0.09 per share of positive variance due to constructive outcomes achieved in our electric rate order earlier in the year and our gas rate case settlement in the second half of 2024.

為了詳細說明天氣對營收的影響，第二季（主要是六月）的良好天氣，加上第一季相對正常的冬季，帶來了每股 0.32 美元的總收益。值得注意的是，我們服務區域內的天氣預報在整個夏季仍然相當良好。由於我們在今年稍早的電價訂單和 2024 年下半年的天然氣價格案和解中取得了建設性成果，扣除投資相關費用後的費率減免導致每股 0.09 美元的正差異。

Moving on to cost trends. You'll notice in the third bar on the left-hand side of the chart $0.04 per share of negative variance versus a comparable period in 2024, due in large part to increased vegetation management in accordance with our electric reliability roadmap.

繼續討論成本趨勢。您會注意到，圖表左側第三條柱狀圖顯示，與 2024 年同期相比，每股負方差為 0.04 美元，這在很大程度上是由於根據我們的電力可靠性路線圖加強了植被管理。

What's less visible in that bar on the chart, but still quite meaningful, is a favorable impact of the aforementioned service restoration expense deferral granted by the commission in June, which enabled us to establish a regulatory asset on the balance sheet for the substantial costs incurred during the March-April storm. This timely and supportive action by the commission is not only a testament to the historic nature of the storm and our strong restoration efforts, but it's also worth repeating the constructive nature of the Michigan regulatory environment.

圖表中該條形圖中不太明顯但仍然很有意義的是，委員會在六月份批准的上述服務恢復費用延期產生了有利影響，這使我們能夠在資產負債表上建立監管資產，以應對三月至四月風暴期間產生的大量成本。委員會的這項及時和支持行動不僅證明了這場風暴的歷史性和我們強有力的恢復工作，而且值得重申密西根州監管環境的建設性。

Rounding out the first six months of the year, you'll note a negative variance of $0.27 per share highlighted in the catch-all bucket in the middle of the chart. The primary drivers of the negative variance were related to the planned outage of our Dearborn Industrial Facility, which I'm pleased to report is fully operational and expected to deliver normalized earnings for the remainder of the year.

在今年前六個月中，您會注意到圖表中間的綜合桶中突出顯示了每股 0.27 美元的負差異。造成負面差異的主要因素與我們迪爾伯恩工業設施的計劃停運有關，我很高興地報告該設施現已全面投入運營，預計將在今年剩餘時間內實現正常收益。

In addition, we anticipate back end weighted tax benefits from select renewable projects at NorthStar. Other notable drivers in this category include the impact of parent financing activities thus far in 2025 and slightly lower electric and gas non-weather sales volumes.

此外，我們預計 NorthStar 的部分再生能源專案將帶來後端加權稅收優惠。此類別中的其他值得注意的驅動因素包括 2025 年迄今為止母公司融資活動的影響以及略微下降的電力和天然氣非天氣銷售量。

Looking ahead, as always, we plan for normal weather, which equates to $0.11 per share, a positive variance for the remainder of the year, given the absence of the mild temperatures experienced in the fourth quarter of 2024. From a regulatory perspective, we're seeing $0.18 per share of positive variance, which is largely driven by the aforementioned electric rate order received from the commission earlier this year and the expectation of a constructive outcome in our pending gas rate case.

展望未來，與往常一樣，我們計劃應對正常天氣，相當於每股 0.11 美元，由於沒有 2024 年第四季出現的溫和氣溫，這將是今年剩餘時間的正向差異。從監管角度來看，我們看到每股 0.18 美元的正向差異，這主要是由於今年早些時候從委員會收到的上述電價命令以及對我們未決的天然氣價格案的建設性結果的預期。

Closing out the glide path for the remainder of the year, as noted during our Q1 call, we anticipate lower O&M expense at the utility driven by the usual cost performance fueled by the CE Way, which we're estimating at $0.01 per share of positive variance.

正如我們在第一季電話會議上所指出的，在結束今年剩餘時間的下滑路徑時，我們預計公用事業的營運和維護費用將降低，這得益於 CE Way 帶來的通常成本績效，我們估計每股正方差為 0.01 美元。

Lastly, in the penultimate bar on the right-hand side of the chart, you'll note an estimated range of $0.14 to $0.20 per share of negative variance, which largely consists of the absence of select one-time countermeasures from 2024, and the usual conservative assumptions around weather normalized sales and parent financings among other items. Given our strong year-to-date performance, particularly in the second quarter, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our full-year financial objectives to the benefit of all stakeholders.

最後，在圖表右側倒數第二條柱狀圖中，您會注意到每股負差異的估計範圍為 0.14 美元至 0.20 美元，這主要包括 2024 年起沒有採取選擇性一次性對策，以及圍繞天氣正常化銷售和母公司融資等通常的保守假設。鑑於我們今年迄今的強勁表現，特別是第二季的表現，我們仍然有信心實現全年財務目標，造福所有利害關係人。

Moving on to credit quality. It is worth noting that Moody's reaffirmed our credit ratings in May, as noted at the bottom of the table on slide 10, and we are currently working through the review process with S&P. Longer term, we'll continue to target solid investment-grade credit ratings, and we'll manage our key credit metrics accordingly as we balance the needs of the business.

繼續討論信用品質。值得注意的是，穆迪在五月重申了我們的信用評級，如第 10 張幻燈片底部所示，我們目前正在與標準普爾合作進行審查。從長遠來看，我們將繼續以穩健的投資等級信用評級為目標，並在平衡業務需求的同時相應地管理我們的關鍵信用指標。

Slide 11 offers an update to our funding needs in 2025 at the utility and at the parent. With two quarters under our belt in 2025, I'm pleased to report that we have completed the vast majority of our financing plan for the year. And as you'd expect, we're busy evaluating alternatives for our remaining funding needs at the parent. To that end, it's worth noting that we have executed 40 equity contracts of approximately $350 million, thus derisking roughly 70% of our planned equity needs for the year.

幻燈片 11 提供了我們 2025 年公用事業和母公司的資金需求的最新情況。2025 年已經過去兩個季度了，我很高興地報告，我們已經完成了今年絕大部分的融資計劃。正如您所料，我們正忙於評估母公司剩餘資金需求的替代方案。為此，值得注意的是，我們已經執行了 40 份價值約 3.5 億美元的股權合同，從而降低了今年計劃股權需求的約 70% 的風險。

Lastly, we continue to see strong appetite in the bilateral market for tax credit transfers and are on track to complete our planned monetizations for the year. Longer term, we'll continue to utilize this funding vehicle as a source of liquidity while available. To that end, as Garrick noted, based on the expected in-service dates of our renewable project pipeline, as well as the construction status on projects in the outer years of our plan, we are well positioned to execute on approximately $700 million of tax credit transfers in our five-year plan.

最後，我們繼續看到雙邊市場對稅收抵免轉移的強烈需求，並有望完成今年計劃的貨幣化。長遠來看，我們將繼續利用這種融資工具作為流動資金來源。為此，正如加里克所指出的，根據我們再生能源專案管道的預期投入使用日期，以及我們計劃未來幾年的專案建設狀況，我們完全有能力在五年計劃中執行約 7 億美元的稅收抵免轉移。

As I've said before, our approach to our financing plan is similar to how we run the business. We plan conservatively and capitalize on opportunities as they arise. This approach has been tried and true year in and year out and has enabled us to deliver on our operational and financial objectives, irrespective of the circumstances to the benefit of our customers and investors. And this year is no different.

正如我之前所說，我們的融資計劃方法與我們經營業務的方法類似。我們制定保守的計劃並抓住出現的機會。這種方法經過年復一年的實踐檢驗，使我們能夠實現營運和財務目標，無論情況如何，都為我們的客戶和投資者帶來利益。今年也不例外。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Garrick for his final remarks before the Q&A session.

說完這些，我將把發言權交還給加里克，讓他在問答環節之前做最後的發言。

Thanks, Rejji. We've had a great quarter and we are well positioned to deliver on the full year. What I'm even more excited about is how this team continues to deliver great outcomes for our customers and investors. The data center agreement is a big win, inflects progress in our growth, as well as the opportunity to invest in new renewable and thermal resources. It is an exciting time in this industry, and CMS Energy is well positioned.

謝謝，Rejji。我們本季的業績表現優異，並且已做好充分準備實現全年業績。更讓我興奮的是這個團隊如何持續為我們的客戶和投資者帶來出色的成果。資料中心協議是一個巨大的勝利，它體現了我們發展的進步，同時也為我們提供了投資新的可再生和熱能資源的機會。這是該行業激動人心的時刻，CMS Energy 已做好充分準備。

With that, Seb, please open the lines for Q&A.

那麼，Seb，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

（操作員指示）Julien Dumoulin-Smith，Jefferies。

Hey. Good morning, team. Thank you very much, and nice progress again. With that said, I wanted to cut -- speaking of rally, how about this gigawatt that you announced this morning? I just would love to get a little bit more details here. I mean, how do you think about the ramp and the load? You said it's sort of the end of your outlook. Can you elaborate a little bit more specifically?

嘿。早安，各位團隊。非常感謝，再次取得良好進展。話雖如此，我想打斷一下——說到反彈，您今天早上宣布的這個千兆瓦怎麼樣？我只是想在這裡了解更多細節。我的意思是，您如何看待坡道和負載？你說這可以說是你的前景的終結。能否再具體一點闡述？

And then also, can you elaborate a little bit more about how this fits into your resource mix? I know that this is somewhat dynamic itself, but can you elaborate at least preliminarily and how you're thinking about it? And when you say it's ramping up in the back half of the plan, when do you get to that gigawatt? I mean, is it just a few hundred megawatts towards the back of the plan? Just give us a little bit more, if you can, and I appreciate it.

然後，您能否進一步詳細說明這如何適合您的資源組合？我知道這本身就有點動態，但你能至少初步闡述一下你是如何看待它嗎？當您說計劃後半段會逐步增加時，什麼時候會達到千兆瓦？我的意思是，這只是計劃後面的幾百兆瓦嗎？如果可以的話，請多給我們一點，我非常感激。

Yeah. We're excited about the opportunity here. The teams did a nice job of converting part of this 9-gigawatt pipeline. So we have agreement in place, and the counterparty has put a significant amount of money or capital into this agreement, and that is really to secure materials and equipment and be able to do final design work. And so again, nice progress from that perspective.

是的。我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。這些團隊出色地完成了這條 9 千兆瓦管道的部分轉換工作。因此，我們已經達成協議，並且對方已在該協議中投入了大量資金或資本，這實際上是為了確保材料和設備並能夠完成最終的設計工作。所以從這個角度來看，這又是一個不錯的進展。

From a ramp perspective, those conversations continue with the counterparty, and specifically it's in '29 or '30, and then we're also looking at that ramp rate, and so that's kind of the framing. So that's we'll see the early ramp, early megawatts show up in that 2029 or 2030 timeframe, and then how fast is still being determined in the discussions with the counterparty. So that gives you a little flavor of that.

從增速的角度來看，這些對話會繼續與交易對手進行，具體來說是在 29 年或 30 年，然後我們也在關注增速，所以這是一種框架。因此，我們將在 2029 年或 2030 年的時間範圍內看到早期的成長，早期的兆瓦數將會出現，但成長速度如何仍有待與交易對手的討論來確定。這讓您對此有一點了解。

Now, you talked about the resource mix. And just to give you a little context of how we're thinking about this, I love the fact that, that ramp is in that '29, '30, into the next decade. That gives us a ton of flexibility from a resource perspective. And so remember, I'm a little long from a capacity perspective. It's a good starting point. I'm still building capacity today, even though I'm long on building capacity, because I have a renewable energy law. So I'm building renewables. Now, those have limited capacity, but I'm also building storage. Like that's already underway. We're doing that as well, as well, a few PPAs on storage as well with an FCM.

現在，您談到了資源組合。為了讓您稍微了解我們對此的看法，我喜歡這樣一個事實，即這個增長點出現在 29、30 年後，甚至下一個十年。從資源角度來看，這給了我們很大的彈性。所以請記住，從容量角度來看我有點長。這是一個很好的起點。我今天仍在進行能力建設，儘管我已經進行能力建設很長時間了，因為我有可再生能源法。所以我正在建造再生能源。現在，它們的容量有限，但我也在建立儲存。就像那已經在進行了。我們也正在這樣做，也有一些關於儲存的 PPA 以及 FCM。

And then hopefully, you heard in my comments this willingness and preparations to build out gas capacity. Now, what I talked about was specifically the 2% to 3% load growth. So this would be incremental to the plan, but hopefully here's some flexibility to build out gas. And I would just say we're well into the preparation phases for gas capacity buildout. So that's kind of the mix of supply resources that will serve this customer.

然後希望您從我的評論中聽到了這種建設天然氣產能的意願和準備。現在，我具體談到的是2%到3%的負載成長。因此，這將是計劃的增量，但希望這裡能夠有一定的靈活性來建造天然氣。我想說的是，我們已進入天然氣產能建設的準備階段。這就是為該客戶提供服務的供應資源組合。

Awesome. And if I can just follow up quickly here, that 9-gigawatt number on the pipeline side, how are you seeing that evolve here? I mean, I think it's flat quarter over quarter. And again, I suppose that's -- in this modern day and age, I'm curious on how you're seeing it evolve. And specifically, to think that what you were to see any of it materialized, would it be kind of tail end of the period or beyond at this point, just given what you're seeing on ramp rates for other customer contracts?

驚人的。如果我可以快速跟進的話，那麼管道方面的 9 千兆瓦數字，您如何看待它在這裡的發展？我的意思是，我認為它每個季度都持平。再說一次，我想這是——在當今時代，我很好奇你是如何看待它的發展的。具體來說，考慮到您所看到的其他客戶合約的成長速度，您是否認為這一切將要實現，是在這個時期的尾聲還是在以後？

That 9-gigawatt pipeline continues to fill is what I put it. It's conservative. If you look at some of our other public documents, you would see a larger pipeline. We feel confident in the 9, and I've talked about that being a gradient. There are some customers within that pipeline where we continue to exchange terms and conditions and red lines. And one of the next stage gates specifically is this data center tariff. And so I would expect that additional customers could convert once we have that data center tariff in place.

我說的是，那條 9 千兆瓦的管道仍在繼續填充。這是保守的。如果你看一下我們的其他一些公開文件，你會看到更大的管道。我們對 9 充滿信心，而且我已經說過這​​是一個漸變的過程。我們與該頻道內的一些客戶繼續交換條款和條件以及紅線。下一階段的門檻之一就是資料中心關稅。因此，我希望一旦我們制定了資料中心關稅，就會有更多的客戶轉變。

And so we can continue to see good progress with that pipeline. I'll also make a note, we haven't talked much -- we've been talking a lot about data centers. There's a good manufacturing base in there as well. There's over 200 customers, 200 customers that are non-data centers that are a part of that overall large growth potential. And so again, things in Michigan look strong and look good for the future.

因此，我們可以繼續看到該管道取得良好進展。我還要指出的是，我們並沒有談論太多——我們一直在談論資料中心。那裡也有良好的製造基地。有超過 200 個客戶，其中 200 個是非資料中心客戶，他們是整體巨大成長潛力的一部分。所以，密西根州的情況看起來強勁，未來前景看好。

Awesome, guys. See you soon, all right?

太棒了，夥計們。很快再見，好嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Julien.

是的。謝謝，朱利安。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nicholas Campanella, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的尼古拉斯·坎帕內拉。

Hey. Morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. I wanted to pick up where you left off there and just be a little bit more clear on how the 1 gigawatt of new data center customer interacts with the $5 billion of CapEx upside in the IRP. Is it just -- is there like a tipping point where if you do like another gigawatt then you'd go back and revive that $5 billion number? And just where is the point in which you'd look at a higher than 2% to 3% long-term sales outlook, if that make sense?

嘿。大家早安。謝謝你的時間。我想接著您剛才的話題繼續說，更清楚地說明一下 1 千兆瓦的新資料中心客戶如何與 IRP 中 50 億美元的資本支出上漲相互影響。是不是——存在一個臨界點，如果你確實喜歡另一個千兆瓦，那麼你會回去重新恢復那個 50 億美元的數字？那麼，您認為長期銷售前景高於 2% 至 3% 的點在哪裡呢？如果這說得通的話。

Yeah. Let me broaden your question a bit as well. So when I think -- we'll of course do another capital update in the Q4 call, and there are several things that I see about that. We'll update the grid numbers, the reliability resiliency piece and the economic development projects will fall into that. So you'll see that grow. We'll have the REP. It'll be approved by that time. And so you'll see the renewables and that'll be a big piece of that five-year plan as well.

是的。讓我稍微擴大一下你的問題。所以當我認為——我們當然會在第四季度電話會議上進行另一次資本更新，而且我看到了有關這方面的幾件事。我們將更新電網數字、可靠性彈性部分，經濟發展項目也將納入其中。所以你會看到它的成長。我們將有 REP。到那時它就會被批准。所以你會看到再生能源，這也是這個五年計畫的重要組成部分。

And here's the thing about that renewables piece that I want to point out is that what we're seeing with the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill act is that there are more developers that are pulling projects forward. And that gives us an opportunity to build transfer arrangements. It allows us to do maybe some PPAs and some with a financial compensation mechanism. And so that might grow a little bit particularly in the near term for the utility. And then there are going to be some dollars for this IRP.

關於再生能源，我想指出的是，隨著《美麗大法案》的通過，我們看到越來越多的開發商正在推動專案向前發展。這為我們提供了建立轉會安排的機會。它使我們能夠進行一些 PPA 和一些帶有財務補償機制的 PPA。因此，對於公用事業來說，短期內可能會有一點成長。然後就會有一些美元用於這個 IRP。

Now we've got to balance that, because we're going to file an IRP in 2026, takes 10 months to get a rate case approval, that puts it in 2027. But we're going to have to run some things in parallel in that, because to be able to build out the capacity we need for the future, we're going to have to move in that direction. So you'll see some of that sprinkled into the plan going forward.

現在我們必須平衡這一點，因為我們將在 2026 年提交 IRP，需要 10 個月才能獲得費率案例批准，也就是說要到 2027 年。但我們必須同時進行一些事情，因為為了能夠建立未來所需的能力，我們必須朝這個方向前進。因此，您將看到其中一些內容融入未來的計劃中。

Now, to get to your question, that $5 billion-plus is really what we need to deliver today with the 2% to 3% sales growth with realizing the retirement of some plants or placement of a large PPA. This gigawatt is incremental, so we'd have to adjust that number up. And so again, let us play that out in the Q4 call as well as in other filings. And you'll see that get woven into future capital plans.

現在，回到你的問題，這 50 多億美元確實是我們今天需要實現的，透過關閉一些工廠或簽訂大型 PPA，實現 2% 到 3% 的銷售成長。這個千兆瓦是增量的，所以我們必須向上調整這個數字。因此，讓我們在第四季度電話會議以及其他文件中再次討論這一點。你會看到它融入未來的資本計畫。

Excellent. Okay, that's very clear. And then just how do you feel about the gas case at this point and the ability to potentially settle that? I know that we've been looking at a little bit more kind of litigated full distance outcomes on the electric side, but wanted to just take your temperature on the gas. Thanks.

出色的。好的，很清楚。那麼，您目前對天然氣案件有何看法，以及是否有能力解決該案件？我知道我們一直在研究電力方面的更多訴訟全程結果，但我只想測量天然氣方面的溫度。謝謝。

We're in a great spot right now. When I say great spot, 80% of the revised ask, 95% of our capital is improved, that's a great case from a quality perspective. It's the right investments to make in the state. And we continue to be open to settlement. August, we should have a PFD on it. But hear me out here. We're in a good spot, and so I'm comfortable going to a fully adjudicated order.

我們現在的處境很好。當我說「好時機」時，80% 的修訂要求、95% 的資本都得到了改善，從品質角度來看，這是一個很好的案例。這是對該州進行的正確投資。我們將繼續對解決方案持開放態度。八月，我們應該為其配備 PFD。但請聽我說完。我們目前的情況很好，所以我很樂意接受完全裁決的命令。

Great. And then if I could squeeze one more in, just really appreciate the financing update, Rejji. Seems like you're executing '25 as planned. Just how are you kind of thinking about '26 and whether there's an opportunity to kind of derisk the equity in '26? And is that something that you'd be open to? Thanks.

偉大的。然後，如果我可以再擠一點時間，我真的很感謝 Rejji 提供融資更新資訊。看來您正在按計劃執行‘25。您對 26 年有什麼看法，以及是否有機會在 26 年降低股權風險？您願意接受這個嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. Appreciate the question, Nick. The quick answer is that as we look at the second-half funding needs we have for 2025, we will also take into account funding needs we have in the front half of 2026. And if there are opportunities to pull ahead some of those financing needs in an efficient transaction this year, we may look to do that. So we're keeping all options on the table as you'd expect. And the funding environment remains quite good. So again, we're going to keep as much flexibility as possible.

是的。感謝您的提問，尼克。簡單的回答是，當我們考慮 2025 年下半年的資金需求時，我們也會考慮 2026 年上半年的資金需求。如果今年有機會透過有效的交易提前滿足部分融資需求，我們可能會考慮這樣做。因此，正如您所期望的，我們保留所有選項。融資環境仍然相當良好。因此，我們將再次保持盡可能多的靈活性。

Okay. Thanks so much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions in the queue. I'll hand back to Mr. Garrick Rochow for any closing remarks.

謝謝。目前，隊列中沒有其他問題。我將把發言權交還給 Garrick Rochow 先生，請他做最後發言。

Thanks, Seb. I'd like to thank you for joining us today. I look forward to seeing you on the road. Take care and stay safe.

謝謝，塞布。感謝您今天加入我們。我期待在路上見到你。小心並注意安全。

This concludes today's CMS Energy Q2 2025 call. Thank you very much for joining.

今天的 CMS Energy 2025 年第二季電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的加入。