康明斯 (CMI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Cummins Inc., Q4 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加康明斯公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

Joining us today are Chair and CEO, Jennifer Rumsey; Vice President and CFO, Mark Smith; and Chris Clulow, Vice President, Investor Relations.

今天與我們一起參加的有主席兼執行長 Jennifer Rumsey；副總裁兼財務長馬克‧史密斯 (Mark Smith)；以及投資者關係副總裁 Chris Clulow。

It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Chris Clulow. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人克里斯·克魯洛 (Chris Clulow)。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our teleconference today to discuss Cummins' results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早安，歡迎參加我們今天的電話會議，討論康明斯 2024 年第四季和全年業績。

Participating with me today are Jennifer Rumsey, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Smith, our Chief Financial Officer. We will all be available to answer questions at the end of the teleconference.

今天與我一起參加的有我們的董事長兼執行長 Jennifer Rumsey；以及我們的財務長馬克史密斯（Mark Smith）。電話會議結束時，我們將隨時回答大家的問題。

Before we start, please note that some of the information that you will hear or be given today will consist of forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. Such statements express our forecasts, expectations, hopes, beliefs, and intentions on strategies regarding the futures. Our actual future results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements because of a number of risks and uncertainties. More information regarding such risks and uncertainties is available in the Forward-Looking Disclosure Statement in the slide deck and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, particularly the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed annual report on Form 10-K and any subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

在我們開始之前，請注意，您今天將聽到或提供的某些資訊將包含《1934 年證券交易法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述表達了我們對未來策略的預測、期望、希望、信念和意圖。由於存在多種風險和不確定性，我們未來的實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。有關此類風險和不確定性的更多資訊可在幻燈片中的前瞻性揭露聲明和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中查閱，特別是我們最近提交的 10-K 表年度報告和隨後提交的 10-Q 表季度報告中的風險因素部分。

During the course of this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, and we will refer you to our website for the reconciliation of those measures to GAAP financial measures. Our press release, with a copy of the financial statements and a copy of today's webcast presentation, are available on our website within the Investor Relations section at cummins.com.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，並將引導您造訪我們的網站以了解這些指標與 GAAP 財務指標的對帳情況。我們的新聞稿，包括財務報表的副本和今天的網路廣播簡報的副本，可在我們網站 cummins.com 的投資者關係部分中找到。

That out of the way, I'll turn you over to our Chair and CEO, Jennifer Rumsey, to start us off.

好了，下面我將把會議交給我們的董事長兼執行長 Jennifer Rumsey，她將為我們開始。

Thank you, Chris. Good morning. I'll start with a summary of 2024, discuss our fourth-quarter and full-year results, and finish with a discussion of our outlook for 2025. Mark will then take you through more details of our fourth-quarter and full-year financial performance and our forecast for this year.

謝謝你，克里斯。早安.我將從 2024 年的總結開始，討論我們的第四季和全年業績，最後討論我們對 2025 年的展望。然後，馬克將向您詳細介紹我們的第四季和全年財務業績以及我們對今年的預測。

As I reflect back on 2024, I am pleased to share that we delivered strong financial results with records in several parts of the business while also making significant progress in the execution of our Destination Zero strategy. I am incredibly proud of what Cummins and our employees accomplished for our stakeholders, and I feel energized about the opportunities ahead for us as we continue to demonstrate our relentless focus on advancing our strategy and executing our financial commitments as we lead the energy transition.

回顧 2024 年，我很高興地告訴大家，我們在多個業務領域都取得了強勁的財務業績，同時在執行「零目標」策略方面也取得了重大進展。我為康明斯和我們的員工為我們的利害關係人所取得的成就感到無比自豪，我對我們未來的機會感到充滿活力，因為我們將繼續堅持不懈地專注於推進我們的策略和履行我們的財務承諾，引領能源轉型。

It continues to be clear that our multi-solution Destination Zero strategy that leverages advancements and solutions from both our core and Accelera by Cummins businesses will continue to position us to succeed. We demonstrated this in 2024 as we further strengthened our position through evolving our portfolio and expanding and establishing relationships with new and long-standing key stakeholders and partners.

顯而易見的是，我們的多解決方案「零排放目標」策略利用了我們的核心業務和 Accelera by Cummins 業務的進步和解決方案，這將繼續幫助我們取得成功。我們在 2024 年證明了這一點，透過發展我們的產品組合以及擴大和建立與新的和長期的關鍵利益相關者和合作夥伴的關係，我們進一步加強了我們的地位。

Most notably for our core business in 2024, we introduced the Cummins HELM engine platform. Applied across Cummins' legendary B, X10, and X15-series engine portfolios, the HELM platforms provide customers with the option to choose the fuel type, either advanced diesel or alternate fuels like natural gas and hydrogen, that best suits their business needs and offers the power and performance customers expect while also reducing emissions. Cummins began full production of the X15N natural gas engine at the Jamestown Engine Plant earlier this year, and we are actively engaged with some of North America's largest and most demanding heavy-duty fleets as they look to reduce their carbon footprint.

最值得注意的是，對於我們 2024 年的核心業務，我們推出了康明斯 HELM 引擎平台。HELM 平台應用於康明斯傳奇的 B、X10 和 X15 系列引擎產品組合，為客戶提供選擇燃料類型的選項，無論是先進的柴油還是天然氣和氫氣等替代燃料，都最適合他們的業務需求，並提供客戶期望的動力和性能，同時減少排放。康明斯今年稍早開始在詹姆斯敦發動機廠全面生產 X15N 天然氣發動機，我們積極與北美一些規模最大、要求最高的重型車隊合作，幫助他們減少碳足跡。

Additionally, in our core business, we introduced four new generator sets to the award-winning Centum Series, two each powered by Cummins' QSK50 and QSK78 engines. In response to high market demand, these new models have been engineered specifically for the most critical applications such as data centers.

此外，在我們的核心業務中，我們為屢獲殊榮的 Centum 系列推出了四組新發電機組，其中兩組分別由康明斯的 QSK50 和 QSK78 引擎提供動力。為了滿足強勁的市場需求，這些新模型專門針對資料中心等最關鍵的應用而設計。

In order to further raise our capacity to meet rising power generation demand, we also intend to invest $200 million across our US, England, and India manufacturing sites. As you will see in our full-year financial performance details and 2025 guidance, we are excited about the continued impressive performance and growth potential for our Power Systems business.

為了進一步提高滿足不斷增長的發電需求的能力，我們還打算在美國、英國和印度的製造基地投資 2 億美元。正如您在我們的全年財務表現詳情和 2025 年指引中所看到的，我們對動力系統業務持續出色的業績和成長潛力感到非常興奮。

Cummins also successfully completed the separation of our Filtration business, Atmus Filtration Technologies. Cummins will continue its focus on advancing innovative power solutions while Atmus is now well positioned to pursue its own plans for profitable growth. The separation of Atmus resulted in the tax-free exchange of shares, which reduced Cummins' shares outstanding by approximately 5.6 million in the first quarter.

康明斯也成功完成了過濾業務 Atmus 過濾技術的分離。康明斯將繼續致力於推動創新動力解決方案，而 Atmus 則已準備好推行自己的獲利成長計畫。與 Atmus 的分離導致了免稅股票交換，使得康明斯第一季的流通股減少約 560 萬股。

In our Accelera business, we completed the formation of our joint venture, Amplify Cell Technologies, with Daimler Trucks & Buses, PACCAR, and EVE Energy to localize battery cell production and the battery cell supply chain in the United States. This strategic collaboration will advance zero emissions technology for electric commercial vehicles and industrial applications. Amplify began construction this year of a 21-gigawatt-hour factory in Mississippi, with potential for future expansion as demand grows, and is targeting start of production in 2027.

在我們的 Accelera 業務中，我們與戴姆勒卡車和巴士、PACCAR 和 EVE Energy 成立了合資企業 Amplify Cell Technologies，以在美國本地化電池單元生產和電池單元供應鏈。此次策略合作將推動電動商用車和工業應用的零排放技術。Amplify 今年開始在密西西比州建造一座 21 千兆瓦時的工廠，隨著需求的增長，未來還有擴建的潛力，目標是於 2027 年開始生產。

Lastly, as we navigate this long and messy transition for our customers, we remain committed to pacing and refocusing our investments on the most promising paths as the adoption of zero-emission solutions slows in some regions around the world. As you can see in our fourth-quarter results, we recorded charges related to the reorganization of our Accelera business segment, as we underwent a strategic review to streamline the business, while also ensuring we are set up for long-term success. We remain committed to Accelera and its mission, and this business continues to play an important role in our Destination Zero strategy.

最後，在我們為客戶度過這段漫長而複雜的轉型期時，由於全球部分地區採用零排放解決方案的速度正在放緩，我們仍將致力於調整投資節奏，並將投資重點重新放在最有前景的道路上。正如您在我們第四季度的業績中所看到的，我們記錄了與 Accelera 業務部門重組相關的費用，因為我們進行了策略審查以精簡業務，同時確保我們為長期成功做好準備。我們仍然致力於 Accelera 及其使命，這項業務繼續在我們的 Destination Zero 策略中發揮重要作用。

Now, I will comment on overall company performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 and cover some of our key markets. Demand for our products remained strong across many of our key markets and regions, offsetting the softening in the North America heavy-duty truck market.

現在，我將評論 2024 年第四季的整體公司業績並介紹我們的一些主要市場。我們許多主要市場和地區對我們產品的需求仍然強勁，抵消了北美重型卡車市場的疲軟影響。

Revenues for the quarter totaled $8.4 billion, a decrease of 1% compared to 2023, as lower North America heavy-duty and pickup truck volumes and a reduction in sales from the separation of Atmus were partially offset by continued high demand in our global power generation markets, stronger aftermarket, and North America medium-duty truck volumes as well as improved pricing. EBITDA was $1 billion, or 12.1%, compared to a loss of $878 million, or negative 10.3%, a year ago.

本季收入總計 84 億美元，與 2023 年相比下降 1%，因為北美重型卡車和皮卡銷量下降以及 Atmus 分離導致的銷售額下降被全球發電市場持續的高需求、更強勁的售後市場和北美中型卡車銷量以及改進的價格部分抵消。EBITDA 為 10 億美元，漲幅 12.1%，而去年同期的虧損為 8.78 億美元，跌幅為 10.3%。

Fourth-quarter 2024 results included $312 million of charges related to the strategic reorganization of our Accelera business segment. This compares to the fourth-quarter 2023 results, which included $2 billion of costs related to the agreement to resolve US regulatory claims, $42 million of costs related to our voluntary retirement and separation programs, and $33 million of costs related to the separation of the Atmus business.

2024 年第四季的業績包括與我們的 Accelera 業務部門策略重組相關的 3.12 億美元費用。相較之下，2023 年第四季的業績包括與解決美國監管索賠的協議相關的 20 億美元成本、與我們的自願退休和離職計劃相關的 4,200 萬美元成本，以及與 Atmus 業務分離相關的 3,300 萬美元成本。

Excluding those items, EBITDA was $1.3 billion, or 15.8%, compared to $1.2 billion, or 14.4%, a year ago. EBITDA and gross margin dollars improved compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 as the benefits of higher power generation volume, pricing, and operational efficiency more than exceeded lower North America truck volumes and the separation of Atmus.

除去這些項目，EBITDA 為 13 億美元，即 15.8%，而去年同期為 12 億美元，即 14.4%。與 2023 年第四季相比，EBITDA 和毛利率有所提高，因為更高的發電量、定價和營運效率帶來的好處遠遠超過了北美卡車銷量的下降和 Atmus 的分離。

2024 revenues were a record $34.1 billion, essentially flat with 2023 despite the decline in North America heavy-duty truck demand in the second half of the year and reduction of sales from the Atmus separation. EBITDA was a record $6.3 billion, or 18.6% of sales, compared to $3 billion, or 8.9% of sales, in 2023.

2024 年的收入達到創紀錄的 341 億美元，儘管下半年北美重型卡車需求下降以及 Atmus 分離導致銷售額減少，但與 2023 年基本持平。EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 63 億美元，佔銷售額的 18.6%，而 2023 年為 30 億美元，佔銷售額的 8.9%。

2024 results include a gain, net of transaction costs and other expenses, of $1.3 billion related to the Atmus divestiture, $312 million of charges related to the Accelera reorganization, and $29 million of first-quarter restructuring expenses. This compares to the 2023 results that included $2 billion of costs related to the agreement to resolve US regulatory claims, $100 million of costs related to the separation of Atmus, and $42 million of costs related to the voluntary retirement and separation programs.

2024 年的業績包括扣除交易成本和其他費用後的收益，其中與 Atmus 資產剝離相關的收益為 13 億美元，與 Accelera 重組相關的費用為 3.12 億美元，以及第一季重組費用為 2,900 萬美元。相較之下，2023 年的業績包括與解決美國監管索賠的協議相關的 20 億美元成本、與 Atmus 分離相關的 1 億美元成本以及與自願退休和分離計劃相關的 4,200 萬美元成本。

Excluding those items, EBITDA was a record $5.4 billion or 15.7% of sales for 2024 compared to $5.2 billion or 15.3% of sales for 2023, as the benefits of higher power generation volumes, pricing, and operational efficiency more than exceeded lower second-half North America truck volumes and the reduction in margin from the Atmus separation.

除這些項目外，2024 年的 EBITDA 將達到創紀錄的 54 億美元，佔銷售額的 15.7%，而 2023 年為 52 億美元，佔銷售額的 15.3%，因為發電量增加、定價和運營效率提高帶來的好處遠遠超過了下半年北美卡車分離導致的利潤下降和 Atmus 分離導致的利潤下降。

EBITDA dollars were a record in Power Systems, Distribution, and Engine segments. Our Power Systems business, in particular, finished 2024 with a record full-year EBITDA of 18.4% of sales, up from 14.7% in 2023. I'm very pleased with the performance across our core business segments, and you will see from our guidance that we are excited to continue to build on this momentum.

電力系統、配電和引擎部門的 EBITDA 均創下歷史新高。尤其是我們的動力系統業務，2024 年全年 EBITDA 創下歷史新高，佔銷售額的 18.4%，高於 2023 年的 14.7%。我對我們核心業務部門的表現非常滿意，從我們的指引中您會看到，我們很高興繼續保持這一勢頭。

Now, let me provide our overall outlook for 2025 and then comment on individual regions and end markets. We are forecasting total company revenues for 2025 to be down 2% to up 3% compared to 2024, and EBITDA to be 16.2% to 17.2% of sales, up from 15.7% in 2024. While we expect weaker first-half demand in our North America on-highway truck markets, we expect many of our markets, particularly power generation, to remain strong throughout the year.

現在，讓我提供我們對 2025 年的整體展望，然後對各個地區和終端市場發表評論。我們預測，2025 年公司總營收將比 2024 年下降 2% 至成長 3%，EBITDA 佔銷售額的比例將從 2024 年的 15.7% 上升至 16.2% 至 17.2%。雖然我們預計北美公路卡車市場上半年需求將會減弱，但我們預計許多市場，特別是發電市場，全年仍將保持強勁。

Industry production for heavy-duty trucks in North America is projected to be 260,000 to 290,000 units in 2025, flat to down 10% year over year. We anticipate weaker first-half demand. And while we do expect a prebuy in the second half of the year, the uncertainty on the exact timing and extent is driving our wider guidance range.

預計2025年北美重型卡車產業產量將達26萬至29萬輛，較去年同期持平或下降10%。我們預計上半年需求將會疲軟。雖然我們確實預計下半年會進行預購，但具體時間和程度的不確定性正在影響我們更廣泛的指導範圍。

In the medium-duty truck market, we expect the market size to be 140,000 to 155,000 units, down 5% to 15% compared to 2024, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected recent net orders and a depleting backlog. Our engine shipments for pickup trucks in North America are expected to be 130,000 to 140,000 in 2025, flat to up 5% year over year.

在中型卡車市場，我們預期市場規模為 14 萬至 15.5 萬輛，較 2024 年下降 5% 至 15%，主要原因是近期淨訂單弱於預期及積壓訂單減少。我們預計 2025 年北美皮卡引擎出貨量將達到 13 萬至 14 萬台，與去年同期持平或成長 5%。

In China, we project total revenue, including joint ventures, to increase 5% in 2025. We are projecting a range of down 5% to up 10% in heavy and medium-duty truck demand in China. While export demand is expected to decline slightly, we are hopeful that the recent NS4 scrapping policy and other stimulus actions may lead to domestic demand growth. We have not, however, seen a meaningful recovery thus far. While there is still uncertainty around the China truck market for 2025, we expect strength in other markets, particularly power generation, where demand is expected to remain high as data center momentum continues.

在中國，我們預計包括合資企業在內的總收入到 2025 年將成長 5%。我們預計中國重型和中型卡車的需求將下降 5% 至上升 10%。雖然預計出口需求將略有下降，但我們希望最近的 NS4 報廢政策和其他刺激措施能帶動國內需求成長。然而，迄今為止我們還沒有看到有意義的復甦。儘管 2025 年中國卡車市場仍存在不確定性，但我們預計其他市場將表現強勁，尤其是發電市場。

In India, we project total revenue, including joint venture, to increase 10% in 2024, primarily driven by stronger power generation demand. We expect industry demand for trucks to be down 5% to up 5% for the year.

在印度，我們預計包括合資企業在內的總收入到 2024 年將成長 10%，這主要得益於更強勁的發電需求。我們預計今年卡車行業需求將下降 5% 至上升 5%。

For global construction, we expect flat to down 10% year over year, primarily driven by weak property investment and shrinking export demand in China. We project our major global high-horsepower markets to remain strong in 2025. Revenues in global power generation markets are expected to increase 5% to 15%, driven by continued high demand in the data center market.

對於全球建築業而言，我們預計將年持平至下降 10%，主要原因是房地產投資疲軟和中國出口需求萎縮。我們預計，2025 年全球主要大馬力市場仍將保持強勁。受資料中心市場持續高需求的推動，全球發電市場收入預計將成長 5% 至 15%。

Sales of mining engines are expected to be down 5% to up 5%. For aftermarket, we expect revenue improvement with a range of flat to an increase of 5% for 2025. In Accelera, we expect full-year sales to be $400 million to $450 million compared to $414 million in 2024.

預計採礦發動機銷量將下降5%至成長5%。對於售後市場，我們預計 2025 年營收將持平至成長 5%。在 Accelera，我們預計全年銷售額將達到 4 億至 4.5 億美元，而 2024 年為 4.14 億美元。

In summary, 2024 was a record year for revenues, net income, EBITDA, and earnings per share. In 2025, we anticipate that demand will be slightly weaker in the North America on-highway truck markets, particularly in the first half of the year, but offset by continued strength in the power generation market and resiliency in our Distribution business, given our strong aftermarket presence.

總而言之，2024 年是營收、淨收入、EBITDA 和每股盈餘創紀錄的一年。到 2025 年，我們預計北美公路卡車市場的需求將略有減弱，尤其是在上半年，但鑑於我們強大的售後市場影響力，發電市場的持續強勁和分銷業務的彈性將抵消這一減弱的影響。

Despite a relatively flat revenue forecast, we are expecting to improve profitability and cash flow. We remain committed to our multi-solution approach that is proving to be the right strategy for our customers, for the environment, and for the continued growth of Cummins while also returning cash to investors.

儘管收入預測相對平穩，但我們預計盈利能力和現金流將有所提高。我們將繼續致力於我們的多解決方案方法，事實證明，這對我們的客戶、環境和康明斯的持續成長來說都是正確的策略，同時也能為投資者帶來現金回報。

Now, let me turn it over to Mark who will discuss our financial results in more detail.

現在，讓我將主題交給馬克，他將更詳細地討論我們的財務結果。

Thank you, Jen, and good morning, everyone. We delivered strong operational results in the fourth quarter, which resulted in revenue achieving the top end of our prior guidance and EBITDA margins exceeding our projections. 2024 was a record year for revenues, EBITDA, and earnings per share, reflecting the strong demand for our products and the strong hard work of our employees.

謝謝你， Jen，大家早安。我們在第四季度取得了強勁的營運業績，營收達到了我們之前預期的最高水平，EBITDA 利潤率也超過了我們的預期。 2024 年是營收、EBITDA 和每股收益創紀錄的一年，反映了我們產品的強勁需求和員工的辛勤工作。

Now let me go into more details on Q4 and the full year performance. There were some notable non-routine transactions in '24 and 2023, and I'll quantify those and describe our underlying results to give a better understanding of the performance from regular operations. Fourth quarter reported revenues were $8.4 billion, and EBITDA was $1 billion or 12.1% of sales. As Jen mentioned, we underwent a strategic review of our Accelera segment, which resulted in charges of $312 million, of which $305 million were non-cash. Excluding this charge, we delivered EBITDA of $1.3 billion or 15.8% of sales.

現在，讓我更詳細地介紹一下第四季和全年的表現。2024 年和 2023 年有一些值得注意的非例行交易，我將量化這些交易並描述我們的基本結果，以便更好地了解常規營運的表現。第四季報告的營收為 84 億美元，EBITDA 為 10 億美元，佔銷售額的 12.1%。正如 Jen 所提到的，我們對 Accelera 部門進行了策略審查，結果產生了 3.12 億美元的費用，其中 3.05 億美元為非現金費用。除去這項費用，我們的 EBITDA 為 13 億美元，佔銷售額的 15.8%。

In the fourth quarter of '23, we reported sales of $8.4 billion and an EBITDA loss of $878 million. Excluding the regulatory settlement, Atmus separation costs, and voluntary retirement and separation program costs in Q4 2023, EBITDA was positive $1.2 billion or 14.4%. I know that's a lot to digest. In summary, on an underlying basis, EBITDA improved by 140 basis points on slightly lower sales, excluding those charges I just described.

在 23 年第四季度，我們報告的銷售額為 84 億美元，EBITDA 虧損為 8.78 億美元。不包括 2023 年第四季的監管和解、Atmus 離職成本以及自願退休和離職計畫成本，EBITDA 為正 12 億美元，即 14.4%。我知道這需要消化很多東西。總而言之，從基本面來看，除去我剛才描述的那些費用，EBITDA 在銷售額略有下降的情況下提高了 140 個基點。

Fourth quarter revenues decreased by 1% from a year ago as organic growth was more than offset by the reduction in sales driven by the separation of Atmus. Sales in North America were flat while international revenues decreased 3%. Foreign currency movements negatively impacted sales by less than 1%. The EBITDA improvement of 140 basis points was primarily due to higher power generation volumes, pricing and operational efficiency, partially offset by lower North America truck volumes and the separation of Atmus.

第四季營收較去年同期下降 1%，因為有機成長被 Atmus 分離導致的銷售額下降所抵消。北美銷售額持平，而國際收入下降 3%。外幣變動對銷售額造成的負面影響不到 1%。EBITDA 提高 140 個基點，主要由於發電量、定價和營運效率的提高，但北美卡車銷售下降和 Atmus 的分離部分抵消了這一增長。

Now let me summarize some of the impacts by line item in the income statement. Gross margin was $2.1 billion or 25.4% of sales compared to $2 billion or 23.7% last year. The improved margins were driven by stronger power generation aftermarket demand, favorable pricing, particularly in Power Systems and Distribution and improved operational efficiency. Selling, administrative, and research expenses were $1.1 billion or 13.6% of sales compared to $1.2 billion or 14.2% last year due to lower research and development costs.

現在讓我總結一下損益表中各項目的一些影響。毛利率為 21 億美元，佔銷售額的 25.4%，去年同期為 20 億美元，佔銷售額的 23.7%。利潤率的提高得益於發電售後市場需求增強、優惠定價（尤其是電力系統和配電領域）以及營運效率的提高。銷售、管理和研究費用為 11 億美元，佔銷售額的 13.6%，去年同期為 12 億美元，佔 14.2%，原因是研發成本降低。

Joint venture income of $87 million decreased $26 million primarily driven by lower technology fees from some of our international partnerships and costs incurred in the ramp-up of the Amplify Cell Technology battery joint venture here in the U.S., which was formed in the second quarter of '24. Other income was negative $25 million, a decrease of $75 million from a year ago, primarily driven by mark-to-market losses on investments related to company-owned life insurance.

合資企業收入為 8,700 萬美元，減少了 2,600 萬美元，主要原因是我們一些國際合作夥伴的技術費用降低，以及在美國擴大 Amplify Cell Technology 電池合資企業（該合資企業於 24 年第二季成立）所產生的成本。其他收入為負 2,500 萬美元，比去年同期減少 7,500 萬美元，主要由於與公司自有壽險相關的投資的按市價計價損失。

Interest expense was $89 million, a decrease of $3 million from a prior year, driven by lower weighted average interest rates. The all-in effective tax rate in the fourth quarter was 32.8%, principally due to non-deductible costs related to the Accelera reorganization.

利息支出為 8,900 萬美元，較前一年減少 300 萬美元，原因是加權平均利率下降。第四季的全部有效稅率為32.8％，主要由於與Accelera重組相關的不可扣除成本。

All in, net earnings for the quarter were $418 million or $3.02 per diluted share, which includes $312 million or $2.14 per diluted share of Accelera reorganization charges. Excluding the Accelera charges, EPS was $5.16 per diluted share.

總體而言，本季淨收益為 4.18 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 3.02 美元，其中包括 3.12 億美元或每股攤薄收益 2.14 美元的 Accelera 重組費用。除去 Accelera 費用，每股收益為 5.16 美元。

Operating cash flow was an inflow of $1.4 billion, just $37 million lower than the level we saw in the first quarter last year. For the full year 2024, revenues were a record $34.1 billion, slightly above a year ago and reflecting 4% growth if we exclude Atmus from both 2023 and '24.

經營現金流流入 14 億美元，僅比去年第一季低 3,700 萬美元。2024 年全年營收將達到創紀錄的 341 億美元，略高於去年同期，如果我們將 2023 年和 2024 年均排除在外，則成長率為 4%。

EBITDA in '24 was $6.3 billion or 18.6%. Excluding the gain in costs associated with the separation of Atmus, the Accelera charge in the fourth quarter, and first quarter restructuring expenses, EBITDA in 2024 was $5.4 billion or 15.7%. 2023 EBITDA was $3 billion or $5.2 billion and 15.3% excluding the regulatory settlement, Atmus separation costs, and voluntary retirement and separation programs.

'24 年的 EBITDA 為 63 億美元，成長率為 18.6%。不包括與 Atmus 分離相關的成本收益、第四季度的 Accelera 費用以及第一季的重組費用，2024 年的 EBITDA 為 54 億美元，即 15.7%。2023 年 EBITDA 為 30 億美元，若不包括監管和解、Atmus 離職費用以及自願退休和離職計劃，則為 52 億美元，增長率為 15.3%。

The increase in the EBITDA percent was primarily driven by higher power generation volumes, pricing and operational efficiencies, more than offsetting the impact of lower North American heavy-duty truck volumes and the reduction in margin from the Atmus separation.

EBITDA 百分比的成長主要得益於發電量、定價和營運效率的提高，超過了北美重型卡車銷售下降和 Atmus 分離導致的利潤率下降的影響。

All-in net earnings were $3.9 billion or $28.37 per diluted share compared to $735 million or $5.15 per diluted share a year ago. 2024 results included the gain related to the separation of Atmus, net of transaction costs and other expenses of $1.3 billion or $9.28 per diluted share, charges related to Accelera reorganization of $2.12 per diluted share, and first quarter restructuring costs of $0.16 per diluted share.

全部淨利為 39 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 28.37 美元，去年同期為 7.35 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 5.15 美元。 2024 年業績包括與 Atmus 分離相關的收益，扣除交易成本和其他費用後為 13 億美元或每股攤薄收益 9.28 美元，與 Accelera 重組相關的費用為每股攤薄收益 2.12 美元，以及第一季重組成本為每股攤薄收益 0.16 美元。

Capital expenditures in 2024 were $1.2 billion, flat compared to 2023 as we continue to invest in the new products and capabilities to drive growth, particularly related to the HELM platforms within our core business in North America. Our long-term goal is to deliver at least 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders. And over the past five years, we've returned 54% in the form of share repurchase and dividends even while we absorbed the significant acquisition in the form of Meritor.

2024 年的資本支出為 12 億美元，與 2023 年持平，因為我們將繼續投資新產品和能力以推動成長，特別是與我們北美核心業務中的 HELM 平台相關的產品和能力。我們的長期目標是向股東提供至少 50% 的營運現金流。過去五年來，儘管我們以 Meritor 的形式進行了重大收購，但我們仍以股票回購和股息的形式獲得了 54% 的回報。

In 2024, we focused our capital allocation on organic investments, dividend growth, and returning $969 million to shareholders via the cash dividend and debt reduction. We also reduced our shares outstanding by approximately 5.6 million shares from the tax-free Atmus separation share exchange.

2024 年，我們將資本配置重點放在有機投資、股息成長以及透過現金股利和減債向股東返還 9.69 億美元。我們也透過免稅的 Atmus 分離股份交換減少了約 560 萬股的流通股。

I will now summarize the 2024 results for the operating segments and provide guidance for 2025. And thankfully for you and for me, I'm going to exclude all those nonroutine items in the following pages, and thanks for staying with me as I work through that. For the Engine segment 2024 revenues were a record $11.7 billion or up $28 million compared to last year. EBITDA was 14.1% of sales, flat compared to a year ago.

我現在將總結各營運部門 2024 年的表現並提供 2025 年的指導。對您和我來說值得慶幸的是，我將在接下來的頁面中排除所有這些非常規項目，並感謝您在我完成這項工作時一直陪伴著我。引擎部門 2024 年的收入達到創紀錄的 117 億美元，比去年增加 2,800 萬美元。EBITDA 佔銷售額的 14.1%，與去年同期持平。

In 2025, we project revenues for the Engine business will be down 2% to up 3% due to expected weakness in the North American truck market, particularly in the first half of the year, slightly offset by improved demand in pickup and some international markets. 2024 EBITDA is expected to improve with projections in the range of 14.2% to 15.2%.

2025 年，我們預期引擎業務的營收將下降 2% 至成長 3%，原因是北美卡車市場預計會出現疲軟，尤其是在上半年，但皮卡和一些國際市場的需求增加將略微抵消這一影響。預計 2024 年 EBITDA 將有所改善，預計在 14.2% 至 15.2% 之間。

Components segment revenues were $11.7 billion in 2024, 13% lower than the prior year, and EBITDA was 13.8% of sales compared to 14.4% in '23. There were a lot of work done to improve existing operations but that was offset in the year-over-year comparisons due to the separation of Atmus. For 2025, we expect total revenue for the Components business to range from down 5% to flat as 2024 included Atmus in the first quarter through March 18. EBITDA margins are expected to be between 13.8% and 14.8%.

2024 年，零件部門營收為 117 億美元，比前一年下降 13%，EBITDA 佔銷售額的 13.8%，而 23 年為 14.4%。我們做了很多工作來改善現有運營，但由於 Atmus 的分離，這些工作在同比比較中被抵消了。到 2025 年，我們預計組件業務的總收入將在下降 5% 至持平之間，因為 2024 年包括了截至 3 月 18 日的第一季的 Atmus。EBITDA 利潤率預計在 13.8% 至 14.8% 之間。

In the Distribution segment, revenues increased 11% in '24 compared to 2023 and were a record $11.4 billion. EBITDA was 12.1% compared to 11.8% a year ago, driven by higher power generation volumes and pricing. We expect 2025 distribution revenues to increase 2% to 7% and EBITDA margins to be in the range of 12% to 13%.

在分銷領域，2024年的營收與2023年相比成長了11%，達到創紀錄的114億美元。受發電量和價格上漲的推動，EBITDA 成長至 12.1%，去年同期為 11.8%。我們預計 2025 年分銷收入將成長 2% 至 7%，EBITDA 利潤率將在 12% 至 13% 之間。

In the Power Systems segment, revenues were a record $6.4 billion, up 13% over 2023 driven primarily by power generation demand, especially data center applications. EBITDA was 18.4% or 370 basis points higher than 2023, driven by stronger volume, favorable pricing, and a continued focus on operational performance and cost reduction. In 2025, we expect Power Systems revenues to be at 2% to 7% and EBITDA to improve again and be in the range of 19% to 20%.

在電力系統部門，營收達到創紀錄的 64 億美元，比 2023 年成長 13%，主要受發電需求（尤其是資料中心應用）的推動。EBITDA 比 2023 年高出 18.4% 或 370 個基點，這得益於銷售增加、定價優惠以及持續關注營運績效和降低成本。到 2025 年，我們預計電力系統收入將達到 2% 至 7%，EBITDA 將再次改善並達到 19% 至 20% 的範圍內。

Accelera revenues increased to $414 million in 2024 with a net operating loss of $452 million as we lowered costs in existing operations, partially offset by additional losses in the Amplify cell joint venture as it advances its operations. In 2025, we anticipate revenues to be in the range of $400 million to $450 million and net (sic – see presentation slide 18, “2024 EBITDA”) losses to reduce to $385 million to $415 million as we continue to make targeted investments aligned with market demand whilst reducing cost.

由於我們降低了現有營運成本，Accelera 的收入在 2024 年增至 4.14 億美元，淨營運虧損為 4.52 億美元，但隨著 Amplify 細胞合資企業的營運推進，其額外損失部分抵消了這一損失。到 2025 年，我們預計收入將在 4 億至 4.5 億美元之間，淨虧損（原文如此 - 參見簡報第 18 張投影片「2024 年 EBITDA」）將減少至 3.85 億至 4.15 億美元，因為我們將繼續進行符合市場需求的有針對性的投資，同時降低成本。

We currently project 2025 company revenues to be down 2% to 3%. Company EBITDA margins are projected to be approximately 16.2% to 17.2% compared to an equivalent 15.7% in 2024. Our effective tax rate this year is expected to be 24.5%, excluding any discrete items. Capital investments will be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion as we continue to make critical investments to support future growth.

我們目前預測 2025 年公司營收將下降 2% 至 3%。預計公司 EBITDA 利潤率約為 16.2% 至 17.2%，而 2024 年為 15.7%。預計今年我們的有效稅率為 24.5%（不包括任何單一項目）。我們將繼續進行關鍵投資來支持未來成長，資本投資將在 14 億美元至 15 億美元之間。

To summarize, we delivered record sales and profitability in 2024, including strong results in the second half of the year even as demand in the North American heavy-duty truck market declined. Cash generation has been and will continue to be a focus as we enter 2025, enabling us to continue investing in new products for new and existing markets, returning cash to shareholders, and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

總而言之，我們在 2024 年實現了創紀錄的銷售額和獲利能力，包括下半年強勁的業績，儘管北美重型卡車市場的需求下降。現金創造一直是我們關注的重點，並且在進入 2025 年時仍將如此，這使我們能夠繼續為新市場和現有市場投資新產品，向股東返還現金，並保持強勁的資產負債表。

Last May, we laid out our updated financial targets through 2030. Our strong performance in 2024 represented encouraging progress towards those targets. And despite a relatively flat revenue forecast and expected weakness in North American heavy-duty truck, we expect to further improve profitability and cash flow in 2025.

去年五月，我們訂定了至2030年的最新財務目標。我們在 2024 年的強勁表現代表著我們在實現這些目標方面取得了令人鼓舞的進展。儘管收入預測相對持平且北美重型卡車預計疲軟，但我們預計 2025 年盈利能力和現金流將進一步提高。

Thanks for joining us today, and let me turn it back over to Chris.

感謝您今天的參與，現在我把話題轉回給克里斯。

Thank you, Mark. Out of consideration to others on the call, I would ask that you limit yourself to one question and a related follow-up. If you have an additional question, please re-join the queue. Operator, we're ready for our first question.

謝謝你，馬克。出於對通話中其他人的考慮，我要求您將問題限制在一個問題和相關的後續問題上。如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入佇列。接線員，我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的 Angel Castillo。

Congrats on another strong quarter here. Just wanted to unpack the power generation guide of 5% to 15% a little bit more. Could you just split that out between kind of price and volume? And then maybe just tying into that, I think you mentioned a new investment of $200 million in power gen. Can you just talk about maybe what's entailed in that?

恭喜您又一個季度表現強勁。只是想進一步解讀 5% 到 15% 的發電指南。您能將其分為價格類和數量類嗎？然後也許只是與此相關，我想你提到了對發電的 2 億美元新投資。您能否談一談其中的涵義？

I thought, I guess there was already an expansion of doubling capacity so what is kind of the incremental being done?

我想，我猜已經進行了雙倍容量的擴張，那麼正在進行的增量是什麼樣的呢？

Yes. So as you said, we're currently in the midst of a $200 million investment across our plants in and Minnesota, U.K., and India to ramp up capacity to meet what is a growing demand for power generation products. And so you're seeing in that guide and expectation that we have been able to take up capacity. We're continuing to look at strategic pricing and where we can bring value to the customer so you've got some price in there as well. But really, it's about capacity ramp-up and continued sales of larger engines.

是的。正如您所說，我們目前正在對位於明尼蘇達州、英國和印度的工廠進行 2 億美元的投資，以提高產能，並滿足日益增長的發電產品需求。因此，您可以從該指南和預期中看到，我們已經能夠充分利用產能。我們將繼續研究策略定價以及我們可以為客戶帶來什麼價值，以便您也可以獲得一些價格。但實際上，這與產能提升和更大尺寸引擎的持續銷售有關。

In the power generation and data center market, it's really the 50 to 60 liter, the 78 and the 95 liters so these are large engines as we're able to bring more capacity online in our supply chain and our plants, you see that flowing through in revenue. And we expect that trend to continue over time. And so we're tracking on plan or even slightly ahead of plan to double our capacity by end of this year and looking forward to being able to meet what is a really strong demand from those customers.

在發電和數據中心市場，實際上是 50 到 60 升、78 升和 95 升的發動機，所以這些都是大型發動機，因為我們能夠在我們的供應鏈和工廠中提供更多的容量，你會看到這會增加收入。我們預計這種趨勢將會持續下去。因此，我們正在按照計劃甚至略微提前計劃，在今年年底前將產能翻一番，並期待能夠滿足這些客戶的強烈需求。

That's very helpful. And then maybe as a follow-up, just on separate on the trucks. Can you just give us your latest thoughts on EPA27? It sounds like you're still assuming some prebuy in the second half. But just given, I guess, what we've seen from the administration so far, any thoughts on the likelihood of any kind of challenges to the EPA27 rule?

這非常有幫助。然後也許作為後續行動，只是將卡車分開。您能否向我們介紹一下您對 EPA27 的最新想法？聽起來你還是假設下半年會有一些預購。但我想，鑑於我們目前看到政府的所作所為，您對 EPA27 規則面臨任何挑戰的可能性有何看法？

Yes, our current view is that we expect the EPA27 regulations will stay in place. Many companies, including us, have been investing over multiple years in those products to bring those products to market, and we're looking forward to having a nationwide standard again in 27. And with that, we are still anticipating some -- both economic recovery and prebuy happening in the North America trucking market that helped bring higher revenue in the second half this year and into next year. We do anticipate there'll be more discussion and potential challenge over the greenhouse gas regulations that we see out into the 2030 and beyond time frame.

是的，我們目前的觀點是，我們預計 EPA27 法規將繼續實施。包括我們在內的許多公司多年來一直在投資這些產品以將這些產品推向市場，我們期待在 27 年再次擁有全國標準。儘管如此，我們仍然預期北美卡車運輸市場的經濟復甦和預購將有助於在今年下半年和明年帶來更高的收入。我們確實預計，在 2030 年及以後的時間範圍內，溫室氣體法規將會出現更多的討論和潛在挑戰。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

傑富瑞（Jefferies）的史蒂芬·福爾克曼（Stephen Volkmann）。

Maybe starting off, can you just talk a little bit more about the Accelera restructuring? And how have you changed the focus of that business? And what are you doing less of or more of or just some color around that?

首先，您能否稍微談談 Accelera 重組的情況？您是如何改變該業務的重點的？那麼，您會增加還是減少一些東西，或者只是增加一些顏色？

Yes, I'll start and then Mark can add if he wants to share more detail. But really, this business has all along been about remaining agile and investing as we see technology advancing and markets starting to move in these zero emissions technologies. And we formed it through a number of acquisitions as well. So what that meant was we had kind of a distributed footprint and investment coming from those different acquisitions, and so we really looked at where we see market moving. We expect that battery electric vehicles will be important in some of our commercial vehicle and industrial applications, and we feel well positioned with the battery cell joint venture and some of the wins that we have with customers as that market develops so we're continuing to invest there.

是的，我先開始，然後如果馬克想分享更多細節，他可以補充。但實際上，隨著技術的進步和市場開始向零排放技術轉變，這項業務始終致力於保持靈活性和投資。我們也是經過多次收購才成立這個公司的。所以這意味著我們擁有來自不同收購的分散式足跡和投資，所以我們真正關注的是市場走向。我們預計電池電動車將在我們的一些商用車和工業應用中發揮重要作用，我們認為電池合資企業處於有利地位，而且隨著該市場的發展，我們與客戶贏得了一些利益，因此我們將繼續在那裡投資。

We're continuing to invest but pace investment in electrolyzers as we've seen some slowing in customer demand and uncertainty around incentives there, and then being selective in fuel cells and some of the other technologies where adoption continues to push out. But we think we're well positioned. Frankly, the slower and messier this goes, my view is the better it is strategically for Cummins. And so we're positioning ourselves in the places where we see that market and technology beginning to increase.

我們將繼續投資，但會放緩對電解器的投資速度，因為我們看到客戶需求放緩，而且激勵措施也存在不確定性，然後再選擇性地投資燃料電池和其他一些應用不斷推進的技術。但我們認為我們處於有利地位。坦白說，我認為這個過程越慢越混亂，對康明斯的策略就越有利。因此，我們將自己定位在市場和技術開始成長的地方。

Okay, good. Sorry, I thought Mark was going to add something. Can I ask...

好的，很好。抱歉，我以為馬克要補充一些內容。我可以問一下...

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Well, you've been talking a lot as it is. Hopefully, you'll be doing less of that this year on all these adjustments. Can I just follow up -- can I follow up on the HELM platform? Do you have targets relative to the types of unit volumes you might expect either on the nat gas side or on any of the other engine -- sorry, any of the other fuel options that you can use with that platform?

嗯，你已經說了這麼多了。希望今年你在這些調整上做的會少一點。我可以跟進嗎——我可以在 HELM 平台上跟進嗎？您是否有相對於您可能期望的天然氣或其他引擎的單位體積類型的目標 - 對不起，您可以在該平台上使用任何其他燃料選項嗎？

We've got -- the rate of -- the beauty of the HELM platform is it's got that fuel flexibility. And so the reality is we're still going to sell a lot of the diesel version of that, and it will be a higher efficiency version, which means lower CO2 and lower fuel costs for our customers. We've set a goal of getting to 8% on the natural gas version of that. We're starting to see customers adopt. PACCAR has launched it.

我們已經知道 — — HELM 平台的優點在於它具有燃料彈性。所以現實情況是，我們仍將銷售大量柴油版，而且它將是更有效率的版本，這意味著為我們的客戶帶來更低的二氧化碳排放量和更低的燃料成本。我們設定的目標是讓天然氣版本達到 8%。我們開始看到客戶採用。PACCAR 已推出了它。

Daimler Trucks will launch that 15-liter natural gas this year. Fleets are testing it. I was with a big customer last week. They're finishing their field testing. They feel good about the product, and they're looking to start to increase penetration, but it really depends on diesel fuel prices and regulation and customer CO2 goals.

戴姆勒卡車將於今年推出這款 15 公升天然氣車型。艦隊正在對其進行測試。上週我接待了一位大客戶。他們正在完成現場測試。他們對產品感覺良好，並希望開始提高滲透率，但這實際上取決於柴油價格和法規以及客戶的二氧化碳目標。

And so it's hard to give specific numbers on the rate of natural gas or hydrogen adoption because of that dependency on infrastructure cost and regulation.

因此，由於依賴基礎設施成本和監管，很難給出天然氣或氫氣採用率的具體數字。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

In Power Systems, you had a really excellent 30% year-over-year growth in revenue per unit in the quarter, so the ramp in the supply base was progressing nicely. I'm wondering if you could just update us on how much more throughput you expect to get out of the supply base in 2025 for those large products. And I appreciate there could be a wide range of outcomes but would love to get your updated views on that.

在電力系統方面，本季度單位營收年增 30%，表現十分出色，因此供應基礎的成長進展順利。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們，到 2025 年，您預計這些大型產品的供應基地產量將增加多少。我知道結果可能會有多種多樣，但我還是想聽聽您對此的最新看法。

Well, I think it's important to remember that the revenue growth, in particular, for 2024 was also about launching those new Centum products, so we're seeing new products coming online that serve the market in addition to ramping up capacity. And for this year, it really is focused on continuing to max out our capacity capability that we have when we're making the investment and more capacity across that range of products. And the team has done a really phenomenal job of doing that, improving operating efficiency, working with the supply base to try to get as much out of what we have. But there's some major investments that need to happen by the end of this year to really get to the full doubling of capacity.

嗯，我認為重要的是要記住，特別是 2024 年的收入成長也與推出那些新的 Centum 產品有關，因此我們看到除了提高產能之外，還有新產品上線為市場提供服務。而今年，我們真正關注的是繼續最大限度地發揮我們在投資時的產能，以及提高該系列產品的產能。我們的團隊在這方面做得非常出色，提高了營運效率，並與供應基地合作，盡可能地充分利用現有資源。但今年年底前需要進行一些重大投資才能真正實現產能翻倍。

Unfortunately, Jerry, units are not a great indicator just because the size of the generator set we've been selling is going up. The average selling price has gone up a lot over and above pricing, just the size of the set that we're selling. So the revenue has outgrown the units significant.

不幸的是，傑瑞，單位並不是一個很好的指標，因為我們銷售的發電機組的尺寸正在增加。平均售價已大幅上漲，超出了我們所銷售套裝的尺寸定價。因此收入已大大超過了單位數量。

Nice problem to have. And separately on the China truck market, as you mentioned in the prepared remarks, there is some optimism in the market about potentially stronger demand. Can you just calibrate us, I believe, including the JV and wholly-owned business, China truck profits are maybe 10% of total company profits at this point. And given we're at the trough of the cycle, is it fair to think about pretty attractive incremental margins if demand does indeed surprise the upside?

很高興有這樣的問題。另外，就中國卡車市場而言，正如您在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，市場對於潛在的更強勁需求持樂觀態度。您能否為我們校準一下，我認為，包括合資和獨資業務在內，中國卡車的利潤目前可能占公司總利潤的 10%。鑑於我們正處於週期的低谷，如果需求確實意外上行，那麼考慮相當有吸引力的增量利潤率是否公平？

Yes on the latter. I mean, China in total, maybe on a more normal run rate would be in the range of 15% to 20% of our earnings. And yes, on-highway would typically be more than half of that so you're in the ballpark, Jerry, yes. And there's no massive structural investments going on there in the current year. So if we get more volume, we'd expect to convert that into more profits.

是的，後者是如此。我的意思是，總體而言，在更正常的運作情況下，中國業務的利潤率可能占我們收益的 15% 到 20%。是的，高速公路上的費用通常會超過這個數字的一半，所以你的預算是準確的，傑瑞，是的。今年那裡沒有進行大規模的結構性投資。因此，如果我們的銷量增加，我們希望將其轉化為更多的利潤。

There's also just some lumpiness around tech fees and other things. But I think the underlying operational business is well set as it's done in prior cycles when demand improves, we see that. And I think that just reinforces how well the Engine business and Components did in '24. Not just did we have weakening heavy-duty truck in the second half of the year but we had weaker China throughout the year. So hopefully, at some point, confident China is going to turn.

技術費用和其他方面也存在一些問題。但我認為基礎營運業務已經做好了準備，就像在先前的週期中需求改善時所做的那樣，我們看到了這一點。我認為這進一步證明了引擎業務和零件在24年的良好表現。不僅下半年重型卡車市場表現疲軟，全年中國市場也表現疲軟。所以希望在某個時候，中國能夠變得有信心。

We don't have a lot of visibility into that right now. Hopefully, that's another leg to come.

目前我們對此還沒有太多的了解。希望接下來還有另一段旅程。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Maybe I'll ask 1 to start on components, Mark. Just as you think about the margin outlook for '25 on kind of flat to down revenues, a pretty nice improvement. I'm wondering how much of that is -- is it maybe a benefit from kind of lapping the Atmus spin or separation? Or is there -- obviously, there's more to it than that. So maybe just a line or 2 in terms of what you're projecting there for Components.

也許我會要求 1 開始研究組件，馬克。正如您認為 25 年的利潤前景在收入持平或下降的情況下一樣，這是一個相當不錯的改善。我想知道這有多少——這是否可能是 Atmus 旋轉或分離帶來的好處？或者有——顯然，事情不止於此。因此，就您為組件投射的內容而言，可能只有一兩行。

I think when you look across the company, we've done a lot on cost reduction. It hasn't been enormous in any given quarter, but we've been working at it really since the fourth quarter of 2023 when we announced voluntary separation package. We did a lot of work internally during 2024 to look at how we weighted the amount of resources we put between lines of business, functions, regional structures. And a lot of this work has paid off in terms of improving our cost structure and focus. And so yes, the Components business is going to benefit from some of that.

我想，如果你縱觀整個公司，我們會發現我們在降低成本方面做了很多工作。在任何一個季度，這項變更都不是很大，但自 2023 年第四季我們宣布自願離職方案以來，我們一直在努力實現這一目標。2024 年，我們做了大量內部工作，研究如何在業務線、職能和區域結構之間分配資源。在改善我們的成本結構和重點方面，我們的許多工作已經獲得了回報。因此，零件業務確實會從中受益。

We're not breaking it out separately but what was formerly known as Meritor, Drivetrain, and Braking Systems business, results have continued to improve their underlying. So I think there are a number of things. We are working incredibly hard on a flattish revenue environment to drive cost and efficiency where we can.

我們沒有將其單獨列出，但以前稱為 Meritor、傳動系統和煞車系統業務的業務表現繼續改善。所以我認為有很多事情。在收入環境持平的情況下，我們正在盡力降低成本、提高效率。

Okay. And then Mark, on the Accelera, just in light of the restructuring and given what's -- how the global backdrop is changing or has changed, the expectation to get that business to EBITDA breakeven by '27, is that still in the cards or you're thinking that maybe is a tougher one to hit?

好的。然後馬克，關於 Accelera，僅從重組的角度來看，並考慮到全球背景正在發生或已經發生的變化，預計到 27 年該業務將實現 EBITDA 收支平衡，這仍然是可以實現的，還是您認為這可能是一個更難實現的目標？

Yes. I think overall, relative to our 2030 targets for the total company, we feel like we've had a really good start in 2024 and on track. And we're doing a bit better on the core business and headwinds have come more frequently and more severely to Accelera. So we are committed to significant loss reduction. But right now, we are not on track towards that breakeven, but we do feel we're very much on track for the overall company targets.

是的。我認為總體而言，相對於我們整個公司 2030 年的目標，我們覺得我們在 2024 年已經有了一個非常好的開端，並且進展順利。我們的核心業務做得更好了，Accelera 面臨的阻力越來越頻繁，也越來越嚴重。因此我們致力於大幅減少損失。但目前，我們還沒有達到收支平衡的目標，但我們確實感覺我們已經非常接近公司的整體目標了。

And that's really the reason why we took more pronounced actions or the Accelera team did in the fourth quarter, recognizing that we're not going to get enormous help from demand here in the near term, Tim. So we're managing what we can and in the context of overall company results, we feel confident, but we are not, right now, on track to get to breakeven as we sit here today.

這就是我們或 Accelera 團隊在第四季度採取更明確行動的原因，我們認識到短期內我們不會從需求中獲得巨大幫助，Tim。因此，我們正在盡我們所能，從公司整體業績來看，我們感到很有信心，但就目前而言，我們還沒有達到收支平衡的水平。

Kyle Menges, Citi.

花旗銀行的凱爾孟格斯 (Kyle Menges)。

I was hoping if you could just comment on how you're thinking about R&D spend in 2025 versus 2024, maybe more specifically within Engine and Components. And then just beyond 2025, how you're kind of thinking about that and how we should be thinking.

我希望您能評論一下您對 2025 年與 2024 年研發支出的看法，更具體地說是引擎和零件領域的研發支出。那麼，在 2025 年之後，您會如何思考這個問題以及我們應該如何思考這個問題。

Yes, good question. So I think beyond 2025 is where we should see more momentum to the downside on Engine expense. We did see some improvement through the year in the Engine business. We've got a lot of new product launches, both in Engines and Components in 2025. But after we get through those launches and through 2027, that's definitely part of our margin expansion story in those 2 businesses, but not a dramatic shift this year, some puts and takes between Engines and Components.

是的，好問題。因此，我認為到 2025 年以後，我們將看到引擎費用出現更多下降的勢頭。我們確實看到發動機業務在這一年中有所改善。2025 年，我們將推出許多新產品，包括引擎和零件。但是，在我們完成這些發布並到 2027 年之後，這肯定是我們這兩個業務利潤率擴張故事的一部分，但今年不會發生巨大的轉變，發動機和零部件之間會有一些博弈。

That's helpful. And then just could you comment a little bit on how you're thinking about the parts outlook for 2025?

這很有幫助。那麼您能否稍微評論一下您對 2025 年零件前景的看法？

Yes, Parts held up pretty well, in fact, pretty a little bit better than expected in the fourth quarter across our businesses, and so we think in the range of flat to up 5%. Probably some pricing baked in there. So yes, growing in line with the economy, I would say, at least on par with the economy with what we know today.

是的，零件業務表現相當不錯，事實上，第四季度我們的整個業務表現都比預期要好一些，因此我們認為成長率在持平至成長 5% 之間。可能其中已經包含了一些定價。是的，我想說，與經濟同步成長，至少與我們今天所知的經濟持平。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

傑米庫克（Jamie Cook），Truist Securities。

Nice quarter. I guess similar question that Tim asked on, I think it was the Components business. Just the margins mark in Power Systems are very good despite sort of what I would call a muted top line forecast. So is that just pricing in some of the new products? And then I guess, how do you think about margin targets relative to the ones you just gave us, I guess, last year?

不錯的季度。我猜想蒂姆問過類似的問題，我認為這是零件業務。儘管我認為營業收入預測不高，但 Power Systems 的利潤率非常好。那麼這只是一些新產品的定價嗎？然後我想，您覺得相對於去年給我們的利潤目標來說，今年的利潤目標怎麼樣？

Is it looking conservative? And then my second question obviously, lots of puts and takes around tariffs and who knows what happens. But are there any changes in your -- how your terms and conditions or contracts with your customers that if we do get into an environment where tariffs and that causes price increases, that we're able to absorb costs or increase price more frequently relative to last time within Engines, I guess?

看起來保守嗎？然後我的第二個問題顯然是圍繞關稅有很多的爭論，誰知道會發生什麼。但是，如果我們確實進入了關稅導致價格上漲的環境，您與客戶簽訂的條款和條件或合約是否有任何變化，我們是否能夠吸收成本或比上次在引擎領域更頻繁地提高價格？

Great. So yes, Power Systems doing well. I think continuing to focus on supply chain efficient output. They did a great job last year so I don't want to sound like we're dissatisfied. Quite the opposite, very impressed, but still think there's more to come on raising volume, raising productivity, and a little bit on pricing Power Systems.

偉大的。所以是的，電力系統表現良好。我認為繼續關注供應鏈的高效產出。他們去年做得很好所以我不想聽起來好像我們不滿意。恰恰相反，我印象非常深刻，但我仍然認為在提高產量、提高生產力以及電力系統定價方面還有更多的工作要做。

So all of those things contribute towards raising the margin guidance for the year and quite a bit above the fourth quarter levels. And I guess if we really had a robust U.S. economy, we could see growth in some of the smaller generator sets. We have high market share in some of the consumer segments that are particularly robust. So I guess that -- we don't see signs of that, but if we want to get on to the bullish side and saw more strength in the U.S.

因此，所有這些因素都有助於提高今年的利潤率預期，並遠高於第四季的水平。我想，如果美國經濟真的強勁的話，我們會看到一些小型發電機組的成長。在一些特別強勁的消費領域，我們佔有較高的市場份額。所以我猜——我們沒有看到這方面的跡象，但如果我們想看漲，並看到美國經濟進一步走強。

economy, that could be another leg to help. On tariffs, by and large, our strategy is to make most of our products in the market in which they're sold. But of course, we do have a global supply chain and we -- of course, nobody knows exactly what the tariff situation is going to be. But to the extent that we do incur them, then we think it's important that the market feels those and we'll look to pass those on. Let's hope that's not significant for everybody involved.

經濟，這可能是另一個助力。關於關稅，總的來說，我們的策略是在我們的產品銷售市場上生產大部分產品。但當然，我們確實有一條全球供應鏈，而且我們——當然，沒有人確切知道關稅情況將會如何。但如果我們確實產生了這些影響，那麼我們認為讓市場感受到這些影響並努力將其傳遞下去是很重要的。希望這對所有相關人員來說都不是特別重大的事情。

But really, we're just focused on controlling what we can control. And I think, yes, we've got secular tailwinds in Power Systems, but the biggest driver is being able to scale growth effectively and pushing out cost. And then you don't see it on the inside but the work we've done inside to try and simplify our structure, improve the speed of decision-making, all of those things help and have helped kind of raise the bar in 2024.

但實際上，我們只專注於控制我們能夠控制的事情。我認為，是的，我們在電力系統方面確實擁有長期的順風，但最大的驅動力是能夠有效地擴大成長規模並降低成本。雖然你從內部看不到這一點，但我們在內部所做的努力，包括嘗試簡化我們的結構、提高決策速度，所有這些都有助於在 2024 年提高標準。

David Raso, Evercore.

大衛·拉索（David Raso），Evercore。

I'm trying to better understand the margin expansion in Engines and really, for that matter, of Components. First, the D&A, the growth in the D&A, is that mostly in Engines or Components? It's just the margin improvement is impressive but I'm just wondering it drives it down a little bit because there's more D&A than it is operational, but (inaudible)

我試圖更好地了解引擎以及零件的​​利潤擴張。首先，D&A 的成長主要是在引擎還是零件方面？利潤率的提高令人印象深刻，但我只是想知道這會不會降低一點，因為折舊和攤銷費用比營運費用還多，但是（聽不清楚）

Well, there is an increase in D&A because that's where we're investing most of the capital in North America, particularly in the Engine business over the last couple of years.

D&A 有所增加，因為這是我們在北美投資大部分資金的地方，特別是過去幾年在引擎業務上的投資。

So of the [100] D&A increase, is it [50] Engines, [25] Components? Just some sense so I can get a better sense of the underlying operation.

那麼，在 [100] 筆折舊和攤銷增加額中，是 [50] 台發動機，[25] 台零件嗎？只是一些感覺，以便我可以更好地了解底層操作。

Yes, I mean, it won't be significantly in distribution. Power Systems, whilst we're increasing investment is still modest relative to those 2 segments. And so on an incremental basis, most of it is going to go through Engines and Components, a little bit in corporate, which ends up mostly in Engines and Components, yes.

是的，我的意思是，它的分佈不會很廣泛。儘管我們正在增加對電力系統的投資，但相對於這兩個部門而言，投資規模仍然較小。因此，從增量的角度來看，大部分資金將流向引擎和零件部門，一小部分流向公司，最終大部分資金流向引擎和零件部門，是的。

Okay, that's helpful. And then even with that, it looks like there still is some slight operating, let's say, non-D&A margin improvement in Engines. What's driving that? Is it a little bit of mix? Is it -- I'm just trying to think about maybe the new medium engines you're outperforming the market.

好的，這很有幫助。即使如此，看起來發動機業務的營運利潤率（非折舊及攤銷前利潤率）仍有所改善。是什麼原因導致的呢？是不是有點混合了？是的——我只是想知道也許你們的新型中型引擎的表現優於市場。

How to think about those margins versus heavy? Because it's all wrapped in the idea of trying to figure out where do you think Engine margins are as we sort of move out of '25 and people start to pontificate about earnings power in '26 with the prebuy in the Engine division.

如何看待這些利潤與重量？因為這一切都包含在這樣一個想法中：當我們走出'25年時，您認為引擎利潤率在哪裡，人們開始對'26年引擎部門預購的盈利能力發表高談闊論。

Yes, I think those are all really important questions and will be big contributors to the long-term performance. In the near term, I think we'll continue to expect to do well in the aftermarket side, of which the Engine business is our biggest single driver. So that's probably where there's still some pricing opportunity into 2025. And then yes, the engineering starts coming down enormously, but I think we've come down off the peak there, Components probably going up a little bit. But those would be the main drivers.

是的，我認為這些都是非常重要的問題，並且將對長期表現產生重大影響。短期內，我認為我們將繼續期待在售後市場取得良好表現，其中引擎業務是我們最大的單一驅動力。因此到 2025 年可能仍存在一些定價機會。是的，工程量開始大幅下降，但我認為我們已經從頂峰迴落，而組件量可能略有上升。但這些將是主要驅動力。

And as you can see, we haven't factored a lot in from China yet so really, it's cost control and aftermarket in the near term.

正如您所看到的，我們尚未將中國因素考慮在內，因此短期內的主要問題是成本控制和售後市場。

Avi Jaroslawicz, UBS.

瑞銀的 Avi Jaroslawicz。

I guess in terms of your guidance for the market outlook for North America heavy-duty trucks this year, it sounds like if, for whatever reason, (inaudible) do materialize this year that you'd expect retail demand may be still to be negative in the second half. So I guess, one, am I interpreting that correctly? And can you just discuss how you're thinking about it?

我想，就您對今年北美重型卡車市場前景的指導而言，聽起來如果出於某種原因，（聽不清楚）今年確實實現，您預計下半年零售需求可能仍為負值。因此我想，第一，我的解釋正確嗎？您能談談您對此的看法嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think if you look at the underlying performance in the heavy-duty market, spot rates dropped early in '23, so truckload carriers have really had challenges now for 2 years, and I think there's a very real chance that we'll see improvement in that over the course of this year, just depending on what the underlying economy and interest rates do. So there's some potential upside in the second half for that in addition to this prebuy phenomenon that we would anticipate would lead to a stronger second half versus first half. The range is quite wide because how high that goes is really dependent on the prebuy and when that starts.

是的。我的意思是，如果你看看重型貨物市場的基本表現，現貨價格在 23 年初下跌，因此卡車運輸商現在確實面臨著兩年的挑戰，我認為我們很有可能在今年看到情況有所改善，這只是取決於基本經濟和利率的表現。因此，除了這種預購現象之外，我們預計下半年還存在一些潛在的上升空間，這將導致下半年的表現比上半年更加強勁。範圍相當廣，因為價格上漲多少實際上取決於預購以及預購開始的時間。

Got it, okay. And then in terms of medium-duty, just breaking down kind of market share gains versus market growth for 2024. How did those net against each other? And then in terms of your sales guidance for this year within Engines, are we thinking about further share gains this year or not as much?

知道了，好的。然後就中型而言，只是細分市場佔有率成長與 2024 年的市場成長。這些網子是如何互相對抗的？那麼，就您今年引擎業務的銷售預期而言，我們是否考慮今年進一步增加市場份額？

I think really, I think we're talking about following the market in 2025. There's been a long track record of significant market share gains in that market. Our engine is clearly the leader in that market and there were some share gains. But going forwards, it's very much primarily going to be truck in the market, but there can be some modest changes around that from where we are now.

我認為我們談論的實際上是 2025 年的市場走向。我們在該市場的份額長期以來一直大幅增長。我們的引擎顯然是該市場的領導者，且份額有所成長。但展望未來，市場主要還是卡車，但與現在相比可能會發生一些適度的變化。

(inaudible) down for the year, reflective of what we've seen in order made in backlog (inaudible)

（聽不清楚）今年有所下降，反映了我們看到的訂單積壓情況（聽不清楚）

Yes. It's industry -- the industry orders, we will feel that, yes.

是的。這是行業——行業訂單，是的，我們會感覺到。

From a product perspective, we continue to feel really positive about how our product is performing in the market and our position across medium- and heavy-duty.

從產品角度來看，我們對我們的產品在市場上的表現以及我們在中型和重型產品領域的地位仍然感到非常樂觀。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

I had 2 questions around Power Systems, if I may. And 1 is, as this data center market continues to develop, historically at least, I suppose, selling an engine is one thing and then servicing is another. And if you have backup power, it doesn't get turned on that much and it's not as profitable. But obviously, there's a high uptime, high criticality kind of operations. Do you see any opportunity to change that profit algorithm such that you'll be making more recurring revenue or otherwise on that massive build-out of engines that you're going to do?

如果可以的話，我有兩個關於電力系統的問題。第一，隨著資料中心市場的不斷發展，我想，至少從歷史上看，銷售引擎是一回事，維修又是另一回事。如果你有備用電源，它就不會那麼頻繁地投入使用，而且利潤也不會那麼高。但顯然，此類操作的正常運作時間較高，關鍵性也較高。您是否看到任何機會來改變該利潤演算法，以便您可以獲得更多的經常性收入，或者在您將要進行的大規模引擎建設中？

And then secondly, if I can just wrap it in. You've had excellent results in Power Systems. I'm not sure if all of it's really this surge in data center or maybe the stuff you've touched on a couple of times on the call already, operational improvements. I wonder if you could just expand on how you've made that business better.

其次，如果我可以把它包起來。您在電力系統方面取得了優異的成績。我不確定這是否都是資料中心的激增，或者是您在電話中已經提到過幾次的內容，即營運改善。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您是如何使這項業務變得更好的。

Sure. So first on the data center market, so with power generation and data centers, we have engine, gen sets, and then a good portion of that business also flows through the distribution business. So the strong performance you see in the distribution business last year and the outlook is reflecting the strength in power generation as well as aftermarket. But as you noted, they don't, today, run a lot for backup power. So typically, Parts revenue is relatively low as we look at shortage of power availability and how do you meet power demand in the U.S.

當然。首先是資料中心市場，有了發電和資料中心，我們就有了引擎、發電機組，然後很大一部分業務也流經分銷業務。因此，去年分銷業務的強勁表現和前景反映了發電和售後市場的強勁表現。但正如您所提到的那樣，如今，它們並不需要大量運行備用電源。因此，通常情況下，當我們考慮電力供應短缺以及如何滿足美國的電力需求時，零件收入相對較低。

and around the world. There's a potential for some shift in that. And so strategically, we're considering how we think about our role in that, which was part of the discussion on micro-grids and what we do there today. But today, still very much heavily backup power and because of the high reliability demand for those applications. In terms of the Power Systems performance, we undertook now, 2 years ago, focused effort to really look at operating performance structure, how we made sure we were investing in the right products and getting returns on the investments we were making for our customers and working through some of the supply challenges that have built up through the pandemic and then the rebound in the market after that.

以及世界各地。這種情況有可能會發生一些轉變。因此，從戰略上講，我們正在考慮如何看待我們在其中的角色，這是關於微電網的討論的一部分，以及我們今天在那裡所做的工作。但今天，仍然需要大量的備用電源，因為這些應用對可靠性的要求很高。就電力系統績效而言，我們兩年前就開始集中精力真正審視營運績效結構，如何確保我們投資於正確的產品並獲得為客戶所做的投資回報，並努力解決在疫情以及隨後的市場反彈過程中積累的一些供應挑戰。

And so that really has come together at exactly the time when this data center trend has also happened. And so we really had strong underlying operating structure and performance in the business that we continue to drive improvement in as we're also taking up volumes. And so both of those are contributing to really the remarkable profitability improvement that you've seen in Power Systems.

所以這確實恰好是在資料中心趨勢出現的時候出現的。因此，我們確實擁有強大的基礎營運結構和業務績效，並且隨著業務量的不斷增加，我們將繼續推動業務改善。因此，這兩者都為您在 Power Systems 中看到的顯著盈利能力提升做出了貢獻。

Just to add, Rob, the distribution, of course, adds that extra slice of revenue on data centers. And in fact, it's fundamental to winning and supporting this data center business around the world. I think that's one of the strengths we have and a few others have. And that's why you see that the market demand is concentrated amongst a couple of large engine manufacturers like us because of that service capability. But just to underline what you said, Rob, and your intuition, it would be very wrong to attribute Power Systems improvement just to data centers.

補充一下，Rob，分銷當然會增加資料中心的額外收入。事實上，這對於贏得和支持全球資料中心業務至關重要。我認為這是我們以及其他人的優勢之一。這就是為什麼你會看到市場需求集中在像我們這樣的幾家大型引擎製造商身上，因為我們擁有這樣的服務能力。但是，Rob，只是為了強調你所說的話和你的直覺，將 Power Systems 的改進僅僅歸功於資料中心是非常錯誤的。

That's a journey that's still got legs left but tied -- the performance level has been elevated across that segment, including in the alternator business, which supplies across -- really across that supply chain. So we're incredibly pleased with the way that business has improved.

這是一段仍有希望但有希望的旅程——整個細分市場的績效水平已經提高，包括交流發電機業務，該業務涵蓋整個供應鏈。因此，我們對業務的改善方式感到非常高興。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

So the distribution segment guide, the 2% to 7%, it seems quite healthy. Given the underlying truck market outlook, are you able to comment on the core distribution outlook versus the power generation-related services? The reason I ask, if power generation demand holds at these levels, it seems like distribution could see another double-digit growth year in 2025. So any comments there would be helpful.

因此，分銷部分指南（2％至7％）似乎相當健康。考慮到卡車市場的前景，您能否評論一下核心分銷前景與發電相關服務的前景？我問這個問題的原因是，如果發電需求維持在這樣的水平，那麼到 2025 年，配電似乎還能再達到兩位數的成長。因此任何評論都會有幫助。

Yes. I think you're typically seeing Parts growth maybe slightly above the rate of economic growth. And then in this cycle, you're right, the power generation demand in data centers and in some other applications has really provided that extra leg. So I would say in the short run, yes, power gen will be the main swing factor. I would say that some of the other segments, mining, oil and gas, if we look beyond this year, we'd expect to see more growth in the future.

是的。我認為，零件產業的成長率通常可能略高於經濟成長率。然後在這個週期中，你是對的，資料中心和其他一些應用的發電需求確實提供了額外的支援。因此我想說，從短期來看，發電將是主要的影響因素。我想說，如果我們展望今年以後，其他一些領域，如採礦業、石油和天然氣，我們預計未來會看到更多的成長。

There's not enormous momentum in those businesses, but they're also important end markets for distribution. One of the reasons that we like distribution, it generates a lot of cash. It's less volatile than other parts of the business and have that really strong aftermarket piece, which doesn't get the extraordinary growth rates that underpins the kind of year-to-year level of performance. So yes, distribution is doing well. And hopefully, the global economy strengthens and then all of our businesses will do well.

這些業務的發展勢頭並不強勁，但它們也是分銷的重要終端市場。我們喜歡分銷的原因之一是它可以產生大量現金。它比業務的其他部分波動性更小，並且擁有非常強勁的售後市場，而售後市場並沒有實現支撐逐年業績水準的非凡成長率。是的，分銷情況良好。我希望全球經濟能夠增強，這樣我們所有的業務都會發展得很好。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then 1 follow-up question on that comment that you expect some prebuy in the back half but the timing is uncertain. I'm curious what prebuy lift is embedded in the current heavy-duty and medium-duty outlook for North America? I'm just trying to understand what the market could look like, let's see, if there is no prebuy.

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後針對該評論的一個後續問題是，您預計後半段會有一些預購，但時間不確定。我很好奇，當前北美重型和中型卡車的前景中蘊含著什麼樣的預購升勢？我只是想了解如果沒有預購，市場會是什麼樣子。

There are so many factors at play but that's one of the factors we believe can help. We're going to start off at a fairly modest level in the first quarter. Although orders here yet in the fourth quarter of '24 were a little better than expected, I would say, but it's really, we're anticipating that strength in the second half to come somewhat from demand ahead of the regulations and understanding of how flexible the supply chain is for that industry. Again, I think we've all got fairly consistent views of the market at this point and we'll see how it plays out. A big factor, of course, is going to be the strength of the U.S.

有很多因素在起作用，但我們認為這是可以提供幫助的因素之一。我們第一季的起步水準將相當溫和。儘管我想說，24 年第四季的訂單比預期要好一些，但實際上，我們預計下半年的訂單成長將在一定程度上來自於法規出台之前的需求，以及對該行業供應鏈靈活性的了解。再次，我認為我們目前對市場的看法都相當一致，我們將拭​​目以待其發展。當然，一個重要因素是美國的實力。

economy and spot rates and freight activity. All these factors weigh in. The main thing to know is we've got a stronger second half in heavy-duty truck built into our forecasts. Q1, yes, is going to probably be the low point of the year with what we expect right now. The question is, will we get the improvement in the second half?

經濟和現貨價格以及貨運活動。所有這些因素都會影響結果。最需要了解的是，我們的預測顯示下半年重型卡車的銷售將更加強勁。是的，根據我們目前的預期，第一季可能是今年的最低點。問題是，我們在下半場會進步嗎？

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將發言權交還給大家，以便大家發表進一步的結論。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our teleconference today. That concludes the question-and-answer session. As always, the Investor Relations team will be available for questions after the call. Thank you.

感謝大家參加我們今天的電話會議。問答環節到此結束。與往常一樣，投資者關係團隊將在通話結束後解答問題。謝謝。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議網路直播到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，並享受美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。