Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Kevin and I'm your conference facilitator today. I'd like to welcome everyone to Cleveland-Cliffs first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    各位女士、先生,早安。我叫 Kevin,今天由我擔任本次會議的主持人。歡迎各位參加 Cleveland-Cliffs 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • The company reminds you that certain comments made on today's call will include predictive statements that are intended to be made as forward-looking within the Safe Harbor protections of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although the company believes that its forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Important factors that could cause results to differ materially are set forth in reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q and news releases filed with the SEC, which are available on the company website.

    公司提醒各位,今天電話會議中的部分評論將包含預測性陳述,並意圖在 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》(Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995)的安全港(Safe Harbor)保護下,作為前瞻性陳述提出。儘管公司相信其前瞻性陳述係基於合理假設,但此類陳述仍受風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。可能導致結果出現重大差異的重要因素,已載於向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的 10-K 與 10-Q 表格報告及新聞稿中,並可於公司網站查閱。

  • Today's conference call is also available and being broadcast at clevelandcliffs.com. At the conclusion of the call, it will be archived on the website and available for replay. The company will also discuss results excluding certain special items. Reconciliation for Regulation G purposes can be found in the earnings release, which was published this morning.

    今天的電話會議亦可於 clevelandcliffs.com 收聽並同步直播。電話會議結束後,將於網站上存檔並提供重播。公司亦將討論排除若干特殊項目後的業績結果。

  • At this time, I'd like to introduce Lorenzo Goncalves, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer.

    此刻,我想介紹 Lorenzo Goncalves 先生,董事長、總裁暨執行長。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. The first quarter of 2026 was the beginning of a sustained improvement progression that will continue through the rest of the year. While Q1 results could be better, and they would be better if not for a couple of one-timers, we can see the clear signs of a positive trend forming. Among these one-timers, the impact of the spiking on energy cost was the most relevant to Q1 results.

    謝謝你,Kevin,各位早安。2026 年第一季是持續改善進程的起點,這股改善將延續至今年其餘時間。雖然第一季的結果本可以更好;若不是有幾個一次性因素,結果確實會更好,但我們已清楚看到正向趨勢正在形成。在這些一次性因素中,能源成本飆升的影響對第一季結果最為關鍵。

  • Now, to the good news. Our order book is full and the automotive OEMs are booking more and more steel from Cliffs. Production schedules are tight and lead times have moved out. Historically, pricing changes took about a month to flow through our realized numbers. Today, the lag is closer to two months. In practical terms, that means the pricing strength visible in the market today will increasingly show up in our results as we move through the year, quarter by quarter. That combination, strong backlogs, disciplined production, and visibility is what a healthy steel market looks like. The extended lead times allow us to optimize production schedules in our mills, improving our overall efficiency, productivity, and costs.

    現在來談好消息。我們的訂單簿已滿,汽車 OEM 正向 Cliffs 預訂越來越多的鋼材。生產排程吃緊,交期也已拉長。過去,價格變動大約需要一個月才會反映到我們的實現數字中。如今,這個落後期更接近兩個月。實務上,這代表目前市場上可見的價格強勢,將在今年推進的過程中,逐季、逐季地更明顯反映在我們的業績中。這樣的組合——強勁的在手訂單、紀律化的生產與可見度——正是健康鋼鐵市場的樣貌。延長的交期讓我們得以在各座鋼廠最佳化生產排程,提升整體效率、生產力並降低成本。

  • This market strength is driven by what is happening on the trade front. Steel imports into the United States are at their lowest levels since 2009. By now, it's clear that Section 232 works, the melted and poured mandate works, and the enforcement works. Along those lines, we are very encouraged by the recent changes in how derivative product tariffs are being enforced. Distribution transformers were added, which is exactly the right outcome. The Trump administration has given the domestic steel industry what we needed and have been asking for. Union jobs are being protected, domestic supply chains are more resilient, and mills are running at higher utilization with real predictability.

    這股市場強勢是由貿易面正在發生的事情所驅動。美國的鋼鐵進口量已降至 2009 年以來最低水準。到目前為止已很清楚,第 232 條款有效,「熔煉與澆鑄」(melted and poured)要求有效,執法也有效。在此脈絡下,我們對近期衍生產品關稅的執行方式變更感到非常振奮。配電變壓器已被納入,這正是最正確的結果。川普政府已為美國本土鋼鐵產業提供我們所需要、也一直在爭取的措施。工會工作機會受到保護,國內供應鏈更具韌性,鋼廠以更高的產能利用率運轉,且具備真正的可預測性。

  • The one piece still missing is Canada. There's a robust domestic market in Canada for our Canadian subsidiary, Stelco, to sell steel into, but the Canadian market is still oversupplied with steel from countries that are no longer able to dump their excess capacity into the United States. Because of that, they dump steel in Canada. That said, we are confident that Canada will ultimately get to the right place and enhance its own national security defenses against the negative impact of foreign steel causing the destruction of Canadian companies.

    目前仍缺少的一塊拼圖是加拿大。加拿大國內市場對我們的加拿大子公司 Stelco 而言相當強勁,可供其銷售鋼材;但加拿大市場仍充斥著來自一些國家的過剩鋼材,這些國家已無法再把多餘產能傾銷到美國。因此,他們改為把鋼材傾銷到加拿大。儘管如此,我們有信心加拿大最終會走向正確方向,並強化其自身的國家安全防線,以抵禦外國鋼材對加拿大企業造成破壞的負面影響。

  • We truly believe the Canadian government is honest about defending Canadian jobs in Canadian steel workers. We fully expect that Fortress North America can be and will be implemented by Canada because that's totally within their own power. Canada does not depend on anyone else to do so and Canadian jobs are the ones at stake.

    我們確實相信加拿大政府在捍衛加拿大鋼鐵工人的加拿大工作機會方面是誠實且認真的。我們完全預期「北美堡壘」(Fortress North America)可以、也將由加拿大落實,因為這完全在他們自身的權限之內。加拿大不需要依賴任何其他人來做到這點,而利害攸關的正是加拿大的工作機會。

  • The national security base for steel tariffs is being validated in real time. The war activity in Iran has disrupted global freight lanes, driven up energy prices, and destabilized metal supply chains. Imported steel is now not only subject to tariffs, it is structurally more expensive due to transportation costs, energy volatility, and geopolitical risk. And while this global uncertainty is exposing weaknesses elsewhere, it is strengthening the position of domestic steel producers like Cleveland-Cliffs.

    以國家安全為基礎的鋼鐵關稅正被即時驗證。伊朗的戰事活動已擾亂全球貨運航道、推升能源價格,並使金屬供應鏈不穩定。進口鋼材如今不僅要承擔關稅,且因運輸成本、能源波動與地緣政治風險而在結構上更為昂貴。而當這種全球不確定性暴露其他地區的弱點之際,卻正在強化 Cleveland-Cliffs 這類本土鋼鐵生產商的地位。

  • Nowhere is that more evident than in aluminum. The aluminum industry has been hit repeatedly, fires, power shortages, curtailments, geopolitical disruption, and customers have taken notice of all that. Automotive OEMs are prioritizing supply certainty, total cost, and safety. Our Cliffs Steel delivers all of that without the fragility embedded in aluminum supply chains. In my long career in this business, I have never seen so much momentum and substituting aluminum with steel.

    在鋁的領域,這點最為明顯。鋁產業屢遭打擊——火災、電力短缺、減產、地緣政治干擾——客戶也已注意到這一切。汽車 OEM 正優先考量供應確定性、總成本與安全性。我們的 Cliffs 鋼材能提供上述所有要素,且不帶有鋁供應鏈中固有的脆弱性。在我漫長的從業生涯中,我從未見過以鋼材替代鋁材有如此強勁的動能。

  • And automotive is not the only place where the shift from aluminum to steel is occurring. Building products, appliances and truck trailer sectors have been recently gravitating toward more steel use as well. As we advance the use of our Cliffs steel, being formed in equipment previously utilized exclusive for aluminum, Cliffs has demonstrated to our clients with real-life results the most potential benefit to market share gains from aluminum

    而汽車並非鋁轉鋼發生的唯一領域。建材、家電與卡車拖車等產業近期也逐漸傾向使用更多鋼材。隨著我們推進 Cliffs 鋼材的應用,並在過去專供鋁材使用的設備上進行成形加工,Cliffs 已以實際成果向客戶證明,從鋁材轉向鋼材可帶來最大的市占提升潛力。

  • We are also pleased to inform all of our stakeholders that in February, Cleveland-Cliffs received from our clients, Toyota, the Toyota Quality Excellence Award. Toyota does not hand out quality excellence awards lightly. Their standards are amongst the strictest in the world. Winning that award is confirmation that our processes, consistency, execution, and our overall quality are at the highest level for Toyota's high standards.

    我們也很高興向所有利害關係人宣布,Cleveland-Cliffs 於二月獲得客戶 Toyota 頒發的「Toyota 品質卓越獎」(Toyota Quality Excellence Award)。Toyota 不會輕易頒發品質卓越獎。其標準是全球最嚴格的標準之一。獲得該獎項證實,我們的流程、穩定性、執行力以及整體品質,均達到符合 Toyota 高標準的最高水準。

  • That strength has drawn attention from companies outside the United States. When we last spoke, we expected to achieve during the second quarter a mutually satisfactory transaction with POSCO in accordance with the memorandum of understanding signed by both companies last year. This goal remains achievable, but the currency disruption in the Middle East and its impact in the country of South Korea have not helped accelerates the conclusion of our ongoing discussions. That said, our engagement with POSCO is active, and we still believe a deal can be completed within this time frame or slightly later.

    這樣的實力也吸引了美國以外公司的關注。上次我們通話時,我們預期能在第二季內,依據兩家公司去年簽署的合作備忘錄(MOU),與 POSCO 達成一項雙方都滿意的交易。此目標仍可達成,但中東的匯率動盪及其對南韓的影響,並未有助於加速我們持續討論的定案。儘管如此,我們與 POSCO 的互動仍在積極進行中,我們仍相信可在此時間範圍內或稍晚完成交易。

  • Our Department of Energy-funded projects, we -- on this side, we continue to make solid progress. The Butler Works electrical steel expansion project is moving along as planned and remains on schedule for 2028 completion. Similarly, our Middletown Works project has received a clear affirmation that the project will proceed once the updated scope is finally approved, and we are now in the final stages of completing that work.

    至於我們獲美國能源部(Department of Energy)資助的專案——在我們這邊——仍持續取得穩健進展。Butler Works 的電工鋼擴建專案正按計畫推進,並仍維持於 2028 年完工的進度。同樣地,我們的 Middletown Works 專案也已獲得明確確認:一旦更新後的範疇最終獲核准,專案將會推進;目前我們正處於完成該項工作的最後階段。

  • The revised scope of the project reflects a modern blast furnace configuration that position Middletown among the most energy efficient in the world. Taken together, the Butler and Middleton projects underscore our disciplined approach to modernization, investing in critical infrastructure in a way that strength (sic – strengthen) domestic steel making, improves efficiency and supports long-term competitiveness.

    修訂後的專案範疇反映了一種現代化高爐配置,使 Middletown 躋身全球最節能的工廠之列。綜合而言,Butler 與 Middleton 專案凸顯我們在現代化上的紀律化作法:以強化(原文誤植:strength (sic – strengthen))國內煉鋼、提升效率並支持長期競爭力的方式,投資於關鍵基礎設施。

  • At the same time, we are continuing the footprint optimization actions we began last year. At Burns Harbor, we are idling our smaller plate mill as we have successfully been able to consolidate all capabilities of the 110-inch mill into the 160-inch mill. This removes an inefficient line, improved utilization at the efficient 160-inch mill, and strengthen our cost performance without sacrificing any capability.

    同時,我們也持續推進去年開始的產能版圖(footprint)最佳化行動。在 Burns Harbor,我們將較小的厚板軋機暫停運轉,因為我們已成功把 110 吋轋機的所有能力整合到 160 吋轋機。此舉可移除一條效率不佳的產線、提升高效率的 160 吋轋機稼動率,並在不犧牲任何能力的情況下強化我們的成本表現。

  • We are also idling the Gary plate finishing line, which is no longer needed. There will be no loss in overall steel production or layoffs, as we will backfill those roles in areas where we have seen retiree attrition. We expect that these operational changes, coupled with the positive momentum, we have been -- currently seeing in the plate market should enhance our earnings from the plate business.

    我們也將 Gary 的厚板精整產線暫停運轉,因為已不再需要。整體鋼品產量不會減少,也不會裁員,因為我們會在已出現退休自然流失的區域補足這些職缺。我們預期,這些營運調整加上我們目前在厚板市場看到的正向動能,將可提升厚板事業的獲利。

  • On rare earth, we continue to analyze our potential on these critical minerals. That said, economics hedge on domestic refinement capability. And today, that infrastructure is extremely limited in the United States. Refinement is capital-intensive and not something we intend to pursue ourselves. If and when viable domestic refinement infrastructure becomes available, either through government-supported projects or third-party investments, we see ourselves well positioned to take advantage of the opportunity.

    在稀土方面,我們持續評估我們在這些關鍵礦物上的潛力。不過,經濟性取決於國內精煉能力的配套。而目前在美國,這類基礎設施極為有限。精煉屬於資本密集型業務,我們不打算自行投入。若且當可行的國內精煉基礎設施到位(無論是透過政府支持的專案或第三方投資),我們認為自身將處於有利位置以把握該機會。

  • We have also partnered with a leading and prominent AI provider to help us take a meaningful step forward in how we run the interface between operations and commercial, particularly by embedding AI into our production planning and order entry processes. Their platform allows us to use machine learning models across our internal data to anticipate constraints, optimizing sequencing, and making better decisions in real time rather than after the fact.

    我們也與一家領先且具知名度的 AI 供應商建立合作,協助我們在營運與商務之間的介面運作方式上邁出具實質意義的一步,特別是將 AI 嵌入我們的生產規劃與接單(order entry)流程。其平台讓我們能在內部資料上運用機器學習模型來預判限制條件、最佳化排程順序,並在即時狀態下做出更好的決策,而非事後才調整。

  • Our people are good, but it's impossible to perfect these processes with humans running Excel spreadsheets. This initiative will ultimately move us from human experience-driven planning toward a new and enhanced AI-assisted decision-making system that scales with the complexity of our operations. We expect to make a full announcement on our AI initiative, including the name of our partner in the next few weeks.

    我們的團隊很優秀,但若只靠人力操作 Excel 試算表,不可能把這些流程做到完美。這項計畫最終將使我們從以人員經驗驅動的規劃,轉向一套新的、強化的 AI 輔助決策系統,並能隨著我們營運複雜度提升而擴展。我們預期在未來幾週內,將就 AI 計畫做出完整公告,包括合作夥伴名稱。

  • One important milestone we will navigate in the coming months is the renegotiation of our labor agreement with United Steelworkers. Our employers are the backbone of this company and their skills, commitment and pride in what they produce are critical to our success. In our evolving and increasing in capital-intensive industry, we must ensure that the structure of our labor agreement supports competitiveness, flexibility and long-term sustainability.

    未來幾個月我們將面對的一個重要里程碑,是與美國鋼鐵工人聯合會(United Steelworkers)重新協商勞動協議。我們的員工是公司基石,他們的技能、投入與對所生產產品的自豪感,對我們的成功至關重要。在這個持續演進且資本密集度日益提高的產業中,我們必須確保勞動協議的架構能支持競爭力、彈性與長期永續。

  • We approach these discussions with respect and realism with the goal of reaching an agreement that rewards our workforce, while strengthening the company's ability to invest growth and remain a strong employer for the kings to come. This process represents a meaningful opportunity for both Cleveland-Cliffs management team and our union workforce to demonstrate the depth and the strength of our partnership and we will not disappoint anyone.

    我們將以尊重與務實的態度進行這些討論,目標是在獎勵我們的勞動力之同時,強化公司投資成長的能力,並在未來多年持續成為強而有力的雇主。此一過程對 Cleveland-Cliffs 管理團隊與工會勞動力而言,都是展現合作夥伴關係深度與強度的重要機會,我們不會讓任何人失望。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to our CFO, Celso Gonsalves, to go over our financial results.

    接下來,我把時間交給我們的財務長 Celso Gonsalves,請他說明我們的財務結果。

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Our adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $95 million, a $274 million increase from a year ago due primarily to increased pricing. Starting with the top line. First-quarter shipments totaled just over 4.1 million tons, which represents a recovery of more than 300,000 tons sequentially.

    謝謝。各位早安。本季調整後 EBITDA 為 9,500 萬美元,較去年同期增加 2.74 億美元,主要原因是價格上升。先從營收端開始。第一季出貨量合計略高於 410 萬噸,較前一季回升超過 30 萬噸。

  • That improvement was driven by better demand conditions across spot and trade channels and by a more stable operating cadence coming out of the fourth quarter.

    這項改善來自現貨與貿易通路的需求狀況轉佳,以及在第四季之後營運節奏更為穩定。

  • We were still impacted by weather-related disruptions, but volume strengthened as the quarter progressed. Shipments should increase further into Q2 as this trend continues. That volume recovery is critical because of the fixed cost nature of our business. Every incremental ton we produce and ship has a disproportionate impact on margins. The operating leverage embedded in integrated steelmaking remains substantial.

    我們仍受到天候相關干擾影響,但隨著季度推進,出貨量逐步走強。若此趨勢延續,出貨量在第二季應會進一步增加。這樣的量能回升至關重要,因為我們的業務具有固定成本特性。我們每多生產並出貨一噸,其對毛利的影響會呈現不成比例的放大效果。整合式煉鋼所內含的營運槓桿仍相當可觀。

  • Pricing also moved in the right direction. Average selling prices increased by $68 per ton from a year ago and sequentially by $55 per ton during the quarter, reflecting improving market conditions and better automotive pool. This came in slightly below our original estimate as contractual lags were longer than anticipated based on customers ordering at MAX levels.

    價格也朝正確方向發展。平均銷售價格較去年同期每噸增加 68 美元,且本季較前一季每噸增加 55 美元,反映市場狀況改善以及汽車客戶組合(automotive pool)更佳。不過,實際表現略低於我們原先估計,因為合約價格反映的遞延(lag)比預期更長,主因是客戶以 MAX 水準下單。

  • As mentioned earlier by Lorenzo, what used to be roughly a one-month realization lag has effectively extended to closer to two months as our order book has filled and schedules have stretched. That means price strength visible today will show up more fully in Q2 and Q3 results. In the US, about 45% of our sales are linked to the commodity HRC price. The remainder are under fixed price arrangements like in automotive or linked to other indices like we have with plate.

    如 Lorenzo 先前提到,過去大約一個月的價格實現遞延,隨著我們的訂單簿填滿、排程拉長,實際上已延長到接近兩個月。這表示目前可見的價格走強,將在第二季與第三季的結果中更充分反映。在美國,我們約 45% 的銷售與大宗熱軋捲(HRC)價格連動。其餘則採固定價格安排(例如汽車)或與其他指數連動(例如厚板)。

  • In Canada, effectively all shipments are sold on a spot price basis, but that price has completely disconnected with the US price. Historically, pricing in Canada was effectively in line with pricing in the US. But in today's market, the Canadian selling price is at a 40% discount to US pricing. This is still margin positive for Stelco, but well below what this entity would have generated historically in this type of pricing environment.

    在加拿大,幾乎所有出貨都以現貨價格出售,但該價格已與美國價格完全脫鉤。歷史上,加拿大的定價基本上與美國一致。但在目前市場中,加拿大的銷售價格相較美國價格折價 40%。這對 Stelco 仍是正毛利,但遠低於該實體在過去類似定價環境下原本可創造的水準。

  • On the cost side, the most visible pressure in the quarter came from energy and the impact of the extreme cold weather we felt here in the Midwest during the winter. We lock in most of our natural gas purchases for the following month, 3 days before the start of each month. The day that gas was locked for the month of February was the highest price in 3 years and it very shortly thereafter came back down to historical levels.

    在成本端,本季最明顯的壓力來自能源,以及我們在冬季於中西部經歷的極端低溫所造成的影響。我們會在每個月開始前 3 天,鎖定隔月大部分的天然氣採購。鎖定 2 月份天然氣的那一天,價格創下 3 年來最高,且不久後便回落至歷史水準。

  • This piece of the energy spike was known at the time of our last call and was partially offset by hedges, but we also felt an immense impact from the run-up in electricity and industrial gases. We have three EAF facilities and two integrated facilities in the unregulated states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. And when prices jump like they did during the cold weather months, we feel a direct impact.

    這一段能源飆升在我們上次電話會議時就已知悉,且部分由避險抵銷,但我們也受到電力與工業氣體價格上漲的巨大影響。我們在俄亥俄州與賓夕法尼亞州等未受管制州擁有三座電弧爐(EAF)廠與兩座整合式廠。當價格在寒冷月份如同當時那樣跳升時,我們會直接受到衝擊。

  • All factors considered, the energy spike drove an $80 million negative impact to EBITDA in Q1 relative to historical expectations. Since then, natural gas and electricity prices have normalized, but we've seen other cost pressures emerge. The cost of fuel, for example, has impacted mining costs at our iron ore pelletizing operations, and scrap has continued to grind higher as well.

    綜合各項因素,能源飆升使第一季 EBITDA 相較歷史預期減少 8,000 萬美元。此後,天然氣與電力價格已回歸正常,但我們也看到其他成本壓力浮現。例如燃料成本上升影響了我們鐵礦球團化(pelletizing)作業的採礦成本,而廢鋼價格也持續緩步走高。

  • Combining these with the impacts of some scheduled outages in Q2, our Q2 cost should tick up another $15 per ton higher before falling meaningfully in the back half of the year. We will update our cost expectations on a quarterly basis. All of our other full year expectations, including volume, CapEx and SG&A remain in line with prior guidance.

    再加上第二季部分計畫性停機的影響,我們第二季單位成本應會再上升每噸 15 美元,之後在下半年將明顯下降。我們將按季更新成本預期。我們其他全年預期(包括出貨量、資本支出與 SG&A)仍與先前指引一致。

  • SG&A has been a clear area of success for us, while earnings have been under pressure. Even after acquiring Stelco in the fourth quarter of 2024, which naturally added to SG&A, we've been operating at essentially an all-time low on a quarterly basis since becoming a steel company after factoring in noncash amortization that is added back to EBITDA.

    在獲利承壓之際,SG&A 一直是我們明顯的成功領域。即使在 2024 年第四季收購 Stelco(自然會增加 SG&A)之後,若將加回至 EBITDA 的非現金攤銷納入考量,我們在成為鋼鐵公司以來,季度層級的 SG&A 基本上處於歷史最低水準。

  • This is good evidence of our cost discipline even after absorbing the impact of acquisitions and normal inflationary pressures. The result is a leaner overhead cost base that positions us well as operating conditions improve and underscores our ability to trim fat and capture synergies.

    這充分證明,即使在吸收併購影響以及正常通膨壓力之後,我們仍維持嚴謹的成本紀律。其結果是更精實的間接費用成本基礎,使我們在營運環境改善時具備良好定位,也凸顯我們有能力去除冗餘並擷取協同效益。

  • Turning to cash flow, first-quarter free cash flow was negative as expected, primarily due to working capital timing. Our first and third quarters are always heavier cash use periods due to the coupon schedule of our high-yield bonds. Accounts receivable increased during the quarter as shipments accelerated into March. This along with higher pricing compared to the prior quarter is a recipe for a large receivable build, but the evidence is clearly there for a major cash collection quarter in Q2.

    談到現金流,第一季自由現金流如預期為負,主要是因為營運資金時點因素。由於我們高收益債券的票息支付時程,我們的第一季與第三季一向是現金使用較重的期間。本季應收帳款增加,因為出貨在三月加速。再加上相較前一季較高的售價,這會導致應收帳款大幅增加;但證據非常明確,第二季將是現金回收的大季。

  • Combining this higher collection with higher EBITDA, sets us up for a return to meaningful positive free cash flow in Q2. From both an EBITDA and cash flow standpoint, Q2 should be our best quarter in nearly 2 years. And that is -- and that will be the quarter where we have a number of outages across the footprint. Because of this, our full shipment and cost potential will not be on full display until Q3, which is an outage light quarter.

    將較高的回收與較高的 EBITDA 結合,將使我們在第二季回到顯著的正向自由現金流。無論從 EBITDA 或現金流角度,第二季應該會是我們近兩年來表現最好的一季。而那也將是——也將會是我們在整個版圖中有多起停機的季度。因此,我們完整的出貨與成本潛力要到第三季才會完全展現,因為第三季是停機較少的一季。

  • Q3 will give us maximum operating leverage on volumes and pricing and is where you should expect to see the earnings power of this business become much more apparent. If the steel price curve holds constant, the improvement from Q2 to Q3 will be even better than the sequential improvement from Q1 to Q2.

    第三季將讓我們在銷量與價格上獲得最大的營運槓桿,你也應該預期在那時本業的獲利能力會更加明顯。若鋼價曲線維持不變,第二季到第三季的改善幅度將甚至優於第一季到第二季的季增改善。

  • Our job right now is to run reliable operations and let the strong market we're in, take care of the rest. Our outlook on improving leverage position remains firmly supported by the expectations for strong free cash flow generation over the balance of the year, along with the completion of multiple real estate transactions currently in process.

    我們目前的工作是維持可靠的營運,讓我們所處的強勁市場去處理其餘部分。我們對槓桿水準改善的展望仍有堅實支撐,來自於今年剩餘期間強勁自由現金流創造的預期,以及目前進行中的多筆不動產交易完成。

  • Our $425 million cash received expectation from idle property sales remains on target, with 2 more properties going under contract since we last spoke. As we translate earnings into cash, and close on these asset sales, we expect to further strengthen the balance sheet and continue making progress towards our longer-term leverage objectives while maintaining the flexibility to operate the business from a position of strength.

    我們預期自閒置資產出售取得 4.25 億美元現金的目標仍按計畫進行,自上次通話以來又有 2 處資產進入簽約程序。隨著我們將獲利轉化為現金並完成這些資產出售交割,我們預期將進一步強化資產負債表,並在維持以強勢地位營運之彈性的同時,持續朝較長期的槓桿目標邁進。

  • We're also pleased to have come out of the most cash-intensive use periods at Cliffs, still with liquidity above $3 billion. I will now turn it back to Lorenzo for his closing remarks.

    我們也很高興在 Cliffs 最耗用現金的期間已經過去之後,流動性仍高於 30 億美元。我現在把時間交還給 Lorenzo 做結語。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Celso. In closing, -- what's fundamentally different today is that trade enforcement is working. Our customers are engaged and our order book is full. This company spent the last couple of years fixing what needed to be fixed. That work is largely behind us.

    謝謝,Celso。最後——今天根本性的不同在於,貿易執法正在發揮作用。我們的客戶積極參與,我們的訂單簿也很滿。這家公司在過去幾年一直在修正必須修正的問題。那項工作大致已經在我們身後。

  • The footprint has been rightsized and we finally have the platform to perform and deliver.

    我們的營運版圖已完成適度縮編,終於具備能夠表現並交付成果的平台。

  • From here, the focus is on execution, running reliable operations, serving customers at the highest level, generating cash and allowing the strength of this market to flow through the income statement. With that, I will turn it over to Kevin for questions.

    接下來,重點在於執行:維持可靠的營運、以最高水準服務客戶、創造現金,並讓這個市場的強勢反映到損益表上。接著我把時間交給 Kevin 進入提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

    (接線員指示) Morgan Stanley 的 Carlos De Alba。

  • Carlos De alba - Analyst

    Carlos De alba - Analyst

  • The first one is maybe. Celso, could you comment what are the price expectations in terms of changes quarter-on-quarter for the first -- for the second quarter Obviously, with the lag moving, maybe this has changed versus what we had expected. So any quarter would be great.

    第一個問題可能是。Celso,你能否評論一下第二季相較第一季的價格變動預期?顯然,隨著落後期移動,這可能已經不同於我們先前的預期。所以任何關於季度的說明都會很有幫助。

  • And then in the release, you mentioned that you stopped -- you finally ended the shipping material on the Metal slab contract in the first quarter. Can you give us a color as to how many tons did you ship in the first quarter for that contract? And/or what is the impact on EBITDA that you calculate you suffer from steel basically shipping a few months after officially the agreement was ended?

    另外,在新聞稿中你提到你們在第一季停止——也就是終於結束了 Metal slab 合約的出貨。你能否提供一些細節,第一季針對該合約出貨了多少噸?以及/或你們估算在協議正式終止後仍又出貨數個月,對 EBITDA 造成的影響為何?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Carlos, that's Lorenzo here. Let me answer the slab first and then Celso address the previous portion of your question. We had a tale of shipments on these labs. That is not tonnage-wise, is not really meaningful, but it's still a drag. It was 175,000 tons of slabs that are still in the tail end of shipments.

    Carlos,我是 Lorenzo。我先回答板胚(slab)的部分,然後請 Celso 回答你問題的前半段。我們在這些板胚上仍有一些尾端出貨。就噸數而言並不算真正有意義,但仍是一項拖累。仍在尾端出貨的板胚是 175,000 噸。

  • But it's over. It's done. And now they do not have any labs from us. ArcelorMittal covered is on their own devices and gaming led from other sources other than Cleveland-Cliffs. Celso, please take the --

    但已經結束了。已經完成了。而現在他們不再從我們這裡取得任何板胚。ArcelorMittal 已自行處理,並從 Cleveland-Cliffs 以外的其他來源取得供應。Celso,請接著--

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Carlos. Yes, let me give you some general guidance on Q2. As I mentioned, Costs are going to tick up a little bit from Q1 to Q2. But the way to think about it is Q1 was much better than Q4.

    好的。Carlos。是的,我給你一些關於第二季的概括指引。如我提到的,成本從第一季到第二季會小幅上升。但思考方式是:第一季其實比第四季好很多。

  • Q2 is going to be much better than Q1 and Q3 should be much better than Q2. From a shipment standpoint, Q2 shipments are expected to improve from Q1 and remain above that 4.1 million tonne mark.

    第二季會比第一季好很多,而第三季應該會比第二季更好。從出貨角度,預期第二季出貨將較第一季改善,並維持在 410 萬噸以上。

  • The trends that we're seeing here in Q1 are expected to continue into Q2. Automotive shipments are expected to increase after reaching the highest level in almost 2 years during Q1, and that's going to get even better in Q2. Selling prices are expected to be up about $60 a ton from Q1 to Q2. We expect to see the same kind of benefits we saw in Q1 related to pricing.

    我們在第一季看到的趨勢,預期會延續到第二季。汽車相關出貨在第一季達到近兩年來最高水準後,預期將進一步增加,而第二季會更好。預期售價從第一季到第二季每噸約上升 60 美元。我們預期會看到與第一季相同類型、與定價相關的效益。

  • The monthly quarterly and spot pricing are all up Canadian pricing is improving. As we mentioned, the final slab shipments to cover are not on -- we posted a slide deck in our presentation. You can see sort of the updated contract mix -- so right now, it's about 43% on a fixed full year price with the resets throughout the year. 23% is linked to month like indexes. 7% is on a quarter lag indices.

    月度、季度以及現貨定價都在上升,加拿大定價也在改善。如我們提到的,為 cover 的最後板胚出貨不在——我們在簡報中上傳了投影片。你可以看到更新後的合約組合——目前約 43% 為全年固定價格並在年度內重設;23% 連結月度類指數;7% 連結季度落後指數。

  • 12% is US spot and 15% is Stelco spot.

    12% 是美國現貨,15% 是 Stelco 現貨。

  • So that should give you a view on mix. We talked about pricing. We talked about costs and we talk about shipments. So I think with that, you should have enough for Q2 and then Q3 should get even better from there.

    所以這應該能讓你了解組合。我們談了價格。我們談了成本,也談了出貨。因此我認為這些資訊足以涵蓋第二季,而第三季從那之後應該會更好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

    B. Riley Securities 的 Nick Giles。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Yes. Thank you, operator. So you built working capital in 1Q that's somewhat expected. But to what extent could we see that unwind in 2Q? And can you just describe if or how you'll need to further build just to meet the increasing demand, higher shipments later in the year?

    是的。謝謝,接線員。你們在第一季建立了營運資金,這在某種程度上是預期之內。但第二季在多大程度上可能看到這部分回轉?另外,你能否說明為了滿足今年稍晚需求增加、出貨提高,你們是否或如何需要進一步增加營運資金?

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Nick. Yes. So the Q1 build of working capital, about $130 million was primarily driven by AR as pricing continued to rise in March. Shipments were strong and it was offset by a reduction in inventory. As we look towards Q2, you should see a slight release in working capital as we further reduce inventory.

    Nick。是的。所以第一季營運資金的增加約1.3億美元,主要是由應收帳款(AR)所帶動,因為3月價格持續上漲。出貨強勁,並且被庫存下降所抵銷。展望第二季,隨著我們進一步降低庫存,你應該會看到營運資金小幅釋放。

  • That's the way to think about it.

    就是用這種方式來理解。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just on POSCO, at this point of the negotiations, do you feel that there are certain aspects of any deal that are already decided? Or is there really still active dialogue around different structures? Any color there would be great.

    了解。接著關於POSCO,在目前的談判階段,你覺得任何交易中是否有某些面向已經定案?還是說對不同架構仍有積極的對話?如果能提供一些補充說明就太好了。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me take that one, Nick. I think what -- the biggest change that happened between when we first start talking to POSCO and now is the outside of the negotiation between us and POSCO, the world surrounding us changed a lot. Remember, when we were first approached by POSCO, we were in a price environment that was a lot weaker demand was a lot weaker in the United States.

    Nick,這題我來回答。我認為——從我們一開始與POSCO接觸到現在,最大的變化是:在我們與POSCO的談判之外,周遭的世界已經改變很多。記得當初POSCO找上我們時,價格環境弱得多,美國的需求也弱得多。

  • And POSCO was coming with a proposal of bringing businesses from Korean companies to be reestablished or established from the first place in the United States in the short term because the MU, the Hyundai MU in Louisiana is a long-term proposition at best. It's not a short-term thing that can resolve things right away. So we would be their lifelines.

    而POSCO提出的方案,是把韓國公司的業務帶到美國,在短期內重新設立或從零開始建立,因為路易斯安那的MU——現代MU——充其量是長期方案。那不是能在短期內立刻解決問題的事情。所以我們會是他們的生命線。

  • That said, the situation in South Korea changed a lot. Even though I'm not by any stretch in possession of any information -- internal information about South Korea, it's clear that things are a lot more complicated for all Asian countries, including South Korea right now, than they were two or three years ago. And that's the lag.

    話雖如此,南韓的情勢也改變很多。即使我完全沒有掌握任何——關於南韓的內部資訊——但很明顯,對所有亞洲國家(包括南韓)而言,現在的情況比兩三年前複雜得多。而這就是那個落差。

  • On the other hand, from our side here in the United States, markets be prices are stronger. Automotive OEMs are producing more cars in the United States, and they rely on Cliffs to build those cars in the United States. It's not like they want us to supply steel to Mexico because they will use our steel to produce parts in Mexico and then bring back to the United States. They want to do it in the United States.

    另一方面,就我們在美國這邊而言,市場與價格更強。汽車OEM在美國生產更多車輛,而他們仰賴Cliffs在美國打造這些車。並不是他們希望我們把鋼供應到墨西哥,讓他們用我們的鋼在墨西哥生產零件,再運回美國。他們希望在美國完成。

  • And we do have the capacity right now, idle available, not so much it anymore because we're getting more and more and more orders from the auto OEMs. So our situation is getting better. And that is changing our perception on how this deal should be taken care of. We are still engaged, we're still talking. We still like each other. We still want to deal that is accretive for our shareholders.

    而我們目前確實有產能、也有閒置可用的產能——但現在已經沒那麼多了,因為我們從汽車OEM接到的訂單越來越多、越來越多。所以我們的處境正在改善。這也改變了我們對這筆交易應該如何處理的看法。我們仍然在接觸、仍然在談。我們彼此仍然欣賞對方。我們仍然希望達成一筆能為股東帶來增益(accretive)的交易。

  • And I assume that they want the same thing for their site. Let's see what happened next. But we are -- by any stretch, we are no longer in a hurry. We are not before. We are a lot less in a hurry now.

    我想他們也希望對他們那一方同樣如此。看看接下來會發生什麼。但我們——無論如何——已經不再急迫。我們不像以前那樣。我們現在急迫性低很多。

  • I hope I gave you the overall picture. If not, please go ahead and ask a follow-up question, Nick.

    希望我已經給你整體的圖像。如果沒有,Nick,請繼續追問。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • And that's great. I really appreciate that perspective and give you best of luck.

    這很棒。我非常感謝這個觀點,也祝你們一切順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Martin Englert, Seaport Research Partners.

    Seaport Research Partners 的 Martin Englert。

  • Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

    Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

  • Hello. Good morning, everyone. question on unit cash costs, if you could touch on your exposure to diesel through the upstream mining operations and implications on unit cash costs. And if there's any hedging activity that we should take into consideration there.

    你好。各位早安。關於單位現金成本的問題:能否談談你們上游採礦作業對柴油的曝險,以及對單位現金成本的影響?另外,是否有任何避險活動是我們需要納入考量的?

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Martin, yes, we're seeing some impact. Diesel is a meaningful cost component of the mining operations. We don't hedge diesel anymore. We hedge natural gas, primarily 50% of our exposure, but since we became a steel company, we don't hedge diesel anymore.

    是的。Martin,是的,我們確實看到一些影響。柴油是採礦作業中相當重要的成本構成。我們已經不再對柴油做避險。我們會對天然氣避險,主要是覆蓋我們曝險的50%;但自從我們成為一家鋼鐵公司後,就不再對柴油避險了。

  • So the impact -- the annual impact on kind of truck and rail services overall is about a $50 million annual impact on mining costs, which is about $6 per ton.

    因此影響——就卡車與鐵路服務整體而言,每年的影響約為採礦成本增加5,000萬美元,約等於每噸6美元。

  • Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

    Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then net --

    好的。然後淨額--

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Consume about 25 million gallons per year of diesel.

    每年消耗約2,500萬加侖的柴油。

  • Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

    Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

  • And the natural gas component in the mining operations, that's around like 8%, 10% of overall natural gas for the company?

    那採礦作業中的天然氣部分,大概占公司整體天然氣用量的8%到10%左右嗎?

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • The natural gas associated with mining specifically is about 20%.

    與採礦直接相關的天然氣大約占20%。

  • Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

    Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then within auto, can you touch on the degree that you're seeing a shift back towards steel from aluminum, if any yet? And if it's meaningful volume, when this might be occurring is this something that might be happening after summer shutdowns in automotive or anything like that? I'd be curious on more color if you have any to share.

    好的。另外在汽車領域,你能談談是否已經看到從鋁材回流到鋼材的趨勢(如果有的話)?如果是有意義的量,大概會在什麼時點發生?會不會是在汽車業夏季停工之後之類?如果你能分享更多細節,我會很想了解。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. It's happening as we speak. And it's -- I don't have tonnage from the top of my head here, but it's meaningful for the fact that once you break the dam it goes because lets us [to a car] that we are now in this -- I can't give you, of course, names or details. But we are supplying the tenders that used to be aluminum vendors and now our steel vendors.

    是的。就在我們說話的當下正在發生。而且——我現在一時想不起具體噸數,但它很有意義,因為一旦突破臨界點就會加速;這讓我們[對一輛車]現在處於這個——當然我不能提供名稱或細節。但我們正在供應那些原本是鋁材供應商的標案,而現在改由我們的鋼材供應。

  • Then they need to rethink a bunch of riveting operations and the type of welding and things like that. That's a difficult part, and we are beyond that part. So now instead of not having aluminum, they have steel -- so the engineering departments of these OEMs. And by the way, I'm not talking about any one specific, but it's happening across the -- the board in terms of all OEMs we serve and we serve them all.

    接著他們需要重新思考一系列鉚接作業,以及焊接類型等等。那是困難的部分,而我們已經走過那個階段。所以現在他們不是缺鋁,而是有鋼——也就是這些OEM的工程部門。順帶一提,我不是在談任何單一特定客戶,而是我們服務的所有OEM——而我們全部都有服務——整體都在發生。

  • They now see how feasible it is to step still even using the previous equipment that they had to stamp aluminum. And it's easy to assemble the changes are not meaningful and they do have the material instead of not having the material. So it's happening. It's growing -- and we are already seeing the opportunity to run lines that we are not running before. We brought back the EGL line -- the electrogalvanizing line at new Carlile.

    他們現在看到,即使使用過去用來沖壓鋁材的設備,改回用鋼仍然非常可行。而且組裝很容易,變更幅度不大;更重要的是,他們現在拿得到材料,而不是拿不到材料。所以這正在發生。它正在成長——我們已經看到有機會去跑以前沒有在跑的產線。我們把 New Carlile 的 EGL 產線——電鍍鋅產線——重新啟用。

  • There was do for a long time. So we are seeing all that happening as we speak. So it will be an ongoing process as the year progresses.

    那條線停了很長一段時間。所以我們正看到這一切就在當下發生。因此,隨著今年推進,這會是一個持續進行的過程。

  • Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

    Martin Englert - Senior Analyst

  • And presumably with gravitation back towards that might move your auto mix a little bit and to more favorable mix/margin overall for the steelmaking business. Is a fair assumption?

    而且推測回流到鋼材,可能會讓你們的汽車產品組合稍微變動,並使鋼鐵製造業務的整體組合/毛利更有利。這樣的假設合理嗎?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, the automotive business continues to be a profitable business for us. The fixed prices are not by any stretch detrimental to our profitability. So we just need to get more tons, and that's exactly what not only just the substitution of aluminum [distis] bringing. But the fact that the clients are a lot less excited about cost, cost, cost and then they are seeing the the beauty about reliability, quality, the material that they can count on and things like that.

    嗯,汽車業務對我們而言仍然是有利可圖的業務。固定價格完全不會對我們的獲利造成不利影響。所以我們只需要更多噸數,而這正是——不僅僅是鋁材替代[distis]所帶來的。也包括客戶對成本、成本、成本的執著降低了,他們開始看到可靠性、品質、可依賴的材料等這些優點。

  • So it's back to basics. Back to the important factors that were in place before every single OEM decided that they would be like Tesla and they would produce only electric vehicles. And that ship has say then left a very bad experience with all OEMs -- at that point, everybody was focused on costs. And that's when the less prepared competitors started to participate in automotive more than they should -- and that's being fixed and that is being corrected. So that's what we're seeing right now.

    所以這又回到基本面。回到在每一家 OEM 都決定要像特斯拉一樣、只生產電動車之前就已存在的那些重要因素。而那艘船自那時起就已經離港,並讓所有 OEM 都留下了非常不好的經驗——在那個時間點,大家都把焦點放在成本上。也就是在那時,準備不足的競爭對手開始在汽車領域參與得超過他們應該的程度——而這正在被修正、也正在被糾正。所以這就是我們現在所看到的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Cash, Goldman Sachs.

    Nick Cash,高盛。

  • Nicklaus Cash - Analyst

    Nicklaus Cash - Analyst

  • Lorenzo and also I guess my first question is on the slab contract. Last quarter, we were talking about, I think, about a $500 million increase in EBITDA when prices were at around $90 million. with prices where they are today, I think back of the envelope math gets you about $100 million in revenue higher. Is that all operating leverage and are conversion costs sticky, or is that not the way to think about?

    Lorenzo,另外我想我的第一個問題是關於板胚合約。上個季度我們在談的時候,我記得當價格大約在 90 美元時,EBITDA 會增加約 5 億美元。以今天的價格來看,我用粗略心算大概會得到營收多約 1 億美元。那這些是否全部都是營運槓桿?轉換成本是否具有黏性?還是說不該用這種方式來思考?

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Sorry, it was a little hard to hear your audio, but I think we captured your question around the slab math. But yes, it sounds like your math is reasonable. There are some offsets on scrap pricing, energy costs and things of the like. But I think your assumptions are in line.

    是的。抱歉,你的音訊有點難聽清楚,但我想我們有抓到你關於板胚計算的問題。不過是的,聽起來你的計算是合理的。廢鋼價格、能源成本等會有一些抵銷因素。但我認為你的假設方向一致。

  • Nicklaus Cash - Analyst

    Nicklaus Cash - Analyst

  • Awesome. I appreciate that. And then just one quick follow-up, hopefully, you can hear me. got it for another 15% increase per ton in cost in 2Q due to higher scrap and fuel for, I think, a drop-off in 3Q, '26. What gives you confidence in that drop off? And I guess where does that kind of put you for full year guidance on cost increase or decrease per ton, if you can give that color.

    太好了。謝謝你。然後再一個快速追問,希望你聽得到。我看到你們提到 2Q 每噸成本會再增加 15%,原因是廢鋼與燃料更高,並且我想在 3Q 會回落,'26。是什麼讓你們對這個回落有信心?另外,如果可以提供一些說明,這對你們全年每噸成本增加或減少的指引大概意味著什麼?

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So you got to remember that Q2 is a big outage quarter. So pricing -- I'm sorry, costs naturally would tick up on a per ton basis due to the outages. And then Q3 is a very outage light quarter. So inventory from the high-cost period has sort of worked down into the subsequent quarters.

    是的。所以你要記得,Q2 是一個大型歲修(停機)季度。所以價格——抱歉,是成本——在每噸基礎上會因為停機而自然上升。而 Q3 是一個停機非常少的季度。因此,來自高成本期間的庫存會在後續季度逐步消化。

  • And then we're continuing to see automotive volume ramping. Every unit is running at higher utilization. So as that materializes into Q3, that's when you're going to see the benefit of the cost dilution.

    另外,我們也持續看到汽車用量在爬升。每個單位都在更高的稼動率下運轉。所以當這在 Q3 逐步體現時,你就會看到成本稀釋帶來的好處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Albert Realini, Jefferies.

    Albert Realini,Jefferies。

  • Albert Realini - Analyst

    Albert Realini - Analyst

  • Would you be able to just walk us through some of the break costs or just any broader economics if a scenario where the possible opportunity were or not materialize? I just -- I know you had mentioned previously some of the larger-scale asset sales like Toledo and certain FPT assets would be off the table while discussions with POSCO were ongoing. So just kind of wondering how you think about Wayne continued discussions with POSCO versus the ability to go out to the market with some of these higher valued assets in the current strong steel price environment?

    你們能否帶我們走一遍,如果那個潛在機會沒有實現的情境下,一些解約成本(break costs)或更廣泛的經濟性會是什麼樣子?我只是——我知道你們之前提到,在與 POSCO 討論期間,像 Toledo 以及某些 FPT 資產這類較大規模的資產出售會先不考慮。所以我想了解的是,你們如何在持續與 POSCO 討論,與在目前鋼價強勢環境下把這些高價值資產拿到市場上之間做取捨?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Look, we can't try to create hypothetical scenarios here to the costs come home. But I don't think it's productive because, for example, right now, yes, you're right. The HBI sale, I'm not considering anymore. And it started because -- at least for now. It started because of the discussions with POSCO. But right now, HBI stretched my ability to produce hot metal and helps me increase production.

    是的。你看,我們不能在這裡一直假設各種情境,直到把所有成本都算回來。但我不覺得那樣有建設性,因為例如現在,是的,你說得對。HBI 的出售我已經不再考慮了。至少目前是這樣。當初會開始考慮,是因為與 POSCO 的討論。但現在,HBI 拉伸了我生產鐵水的能力,並幫助我提高產量。

  • You saw that shipments were higher, production was higher and Q2 shipments will be higher and production will be higher. And HBI is helping us get there. because we loaded the HBI in blast furnaces, for example. And we also use them in our EAFs. We still have three, EAFs. So it's not like it's a burden. It's a positive. And we are discussing here cash flow, and we are going to continue to generate cash flow grow cash flow, you're going to start seeing that happen in Q2.

    你也看到出貨量更高、產量更高,而 Q2 的出貨量會更高、產量也會更高。HBI 正在幫助我們達成這點。因為例如我們把 HBI 裝入高爐。我們也在電弧爐(EAF)中使用它們。我們仍然有三座 EAF。所以這並不是負擔。這是正面的。而我們在這裡討論的是現金流,我們將持續產生現金流、成長現金流,你會開始在 Q2 看到這件事發生。

  • So that's why I don't like playing a hypothetical scenarios. Things continue to be the way they are shaping up right now, and shipments continue to go more toward the 16.5 million to 17 million tons for the year. We're going to need the HBI to get there. And that will be very, very accretive to the company. So we like cash flow generated by operations and we will continue to pursue that. All the rest is hypothetical that there is no real meaning on trying to speculate.

    所以這就是為什麼我不喜歡玩假設情境。事情會持續按照目前的樣子發展,而出貨量也會持續更接近全年 1,650 萬到 1,700 萬噸。我們需要 HBI 才能達到那個水準。而那將對公司非常、非常具增益性(accretive)。所以我們喜歡由營運所產生的現金流,並且會持續追求它。其他一切都是假設,去猜測並沒有真正的意義。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lawson Winder, Bank of America Securities.

    Lawson Winder,美國銀行證券。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Thank you, operator, good morning, Lourenco and also, it's nice to hear from you both. And it's nice to see the solid Q-over-Q EBITDA improvement. If I could just drill down a little bit on some of the discussion we've already had on the unit cost guidance for -- so just thinking through the different moving parts, we're adding back $80 million from the onetime energy spike. That's about $1,950 per ton at 4.1 million tons. And then there's an additional $15 million. So net, we're getting about a $35 million gross increase in cost Q2 to Q1.

    謝謝接線員,早安,Lourenco,另外也很高興聽到你們兩位的發言。也很高興看到 EBITDA 季對季有穩健改善。如果我可以再深入一點,針對我們先前談到的單位成本指引——就把不同的變動因素拆開來看,我們把一次性的能源飆升加回 8,000 萬美元。以 410 萬噸來算,大約是每噸 1,950 美元。然後還有額外的 1,500 萬美元。所以淨額來看,Q2 相較 Q1 的成本總增加大約 3,500 萬美元。

  • I mean pushback, if you think that's the wrong way of thinking about it. But if you could just kind of walk me through what the different pieces are, I think you mentioned $6 per ton for diesel, but there's obviously some other pieces there. Could you just help us think through those components?

    如果你覺得這樣想不對,請直接反駁我。但如果你能帶我走一遍不同的組成部分會很有幫助。我想你提到柴油每噸 6 美元,但顯然還有其他部分。你能否幫我們理解這些構成要素?

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Sure. Lawson, I appreciate the comments. So let me drill down here. We saw these production issues in Q1 from kind of onetime extreme weather and energy-related issues.

    是的。當然。Lawson,謝謝你的評論。那我在這裡拆解一下。我們在 Q1 看到這些生產問題,主要來自一次性的極端天氣與能源相關問題。

  • And some of that, there's a little bit of carryover from that high energy cost via just the inventory carryover.

    其中一部分,透過庫存結轉,會把較高的能源成本帶到後面一點。

  • And then further to that, into Q2, you also have a richer product mix as we continue to improve on automotive. So we're seeing some impact -- there's carryover impact from Q1 to Q2. You have the outages in Q2 and you have a richer mix in Q2. And then we're starting to see some of the impact from the kind of the war-related costs related to diesel and freight and things like that. So that sort of explains why Q2 costs are ticking up a little bit higher by $15 a ton.

    再進一步到 Q2,隨著我們持續改善汽車業務,你也會看到產品組合更佳(更高價值)。所以我們看到一些影響——從 Q1 到 Q2 有結轉影響。Q2 有停機歲修,Q2 也有更佳的產品組合。此外,我們也開始看到一些與戰爭相關的成本影響,像是柴油、運費等。所以這大致解釋了為什麼 Q2 成本每噸會小幅上升約 15 美元。

  • And then when you get to Q3, the cost benefit a lot from improved utilization, lower outages, lower energy costs, continued asset optimization, lower coal pricing, and a lot of reduced repair and maintenance costs. So while Q2 ticks up from Q1, Q2 -- Q3 should tick down meaningfully from Q2. So that's the cadence of the sequence of events as we look forward for the next couple of quarters.

    然後到了第三季,成本效益將大幅受惠於使用率提升、停機減少、能源成本降低、持續的資產最佳化、煤炭價格下降,以及大量降低的修繕與維護成本。因此,雖然第二季相較第一季會小幅上升,但第二季到第三季應會相較第二季明顯下降。這就是我們展望未來幾季時,事件發展的節奏與順序。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Okay. Yes, that helps. And is that the correct assumption that you're effectively also getting a Q2 quarter-over-quarter $80 million tailwind in EBITDA from the reduction of those onetime energy costs, so something like $1,950 per short ton benefit?

    好的。是的,這很有幫助。那麼這個假設是否正確:你們實際上也會因一次性能源成本的降低,在第二季相較第一季的 EBITDA 得到 8,000 萬美元的順風助力,也就是每短噸約 1,950 美元的效益?

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean it's not really 1 to 1. It's not like -- like I said, some of that carries over and gets carried through the inventory costs. So it's not like -- I can't tell you that you just remove that entirely quarter-over-quarter?

    是的。我的意思是,這並不是完全一比一。並不是說——就像我說的,其中一部分會延續並透過存貨成本反映出來。所以並不是——我無法告訴你,你可以在季對季比較中把它完全移除。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • But you should remove for Q1 -- you should remove for Q1. That's what you should do because that should not happen, would not have happened without the external factors, and that's real. We use our procedure to buy the stock that we buy in the market, hedging the same way we always hedge it. We did everything by the book and we are unlucky things happen.

    但你應該把第一季的影響移除——你應該把第一季的影響移除。因為若沒有外部因素,這件事不會發生、也本不該發生,而那是真實的影響。我們依照既定流程在市場上買進我們要買的庫存,避險方式也和我們一貫的避險方式相同。我們完全按規章辦事,只是不走運的事情發生了。

  • And I'm sure we are not the only 1 that we're unlucky. Let's see how others will report as we go. But the fact of the matter is that it hurt and it hurt badly. Q1 was supposed to be better without that. That's why we point out because it's a real number that we can pinpoint and show.

    而且我相信我們不是唯一不走運的那一家。讓我們看看其他公司接下來的報告會怎麼說。但事實是,它造成了傷害,而且傷得很重。如果沒有那件事,第一季本來應該更好。這就是為什麼我們要特別指出來,因為那是一個我們可以精確指出並展示的真實數字。

  • But going forward, yes, there is inventory impact and things like that. But on the other hand, we're going to get a lot more value-added material from automotive. We are acting on other things that we will offset. So it's very difficult to identify like that, but it was very easy to identify Q1. That's why we point out in our press release.

    但往前看,確實會有存貨影響之類的因素。不過另一方面,我們將從汽車端取得更多高附加價值的材料。我們也在推動其他事項來加以抵銷。所以要像那樣精確拆解非常困難,但第一季的影響就很容易辨識。因此我們才在新聞稿中特別說明。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. And then if I could just ask very quickly on the land sales. I appreciate that predicting the precise timing of those can't be easy. But are they still all expected to close in 2026?

    好的。這非常有幫助。接著我想很快問一下土地出售的部分。我理解要預測其精確時點並不容易。但是否仍預期都會在 2026 年完成交割?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Yes, we are very confident that the counterparts are acting to get their problems solved and their financing in place. We continue to sign enforceable contracts. So we have 2 more in the quarter. So all going -- all these deals are going very well.

    是的。是的,我們非常有信心,交易對手正在採取行動解決他們的問題並把融資安排到位。我們持續簽署具可執行力的合約。所以本季又有兩筆。因此整體來看——所有這些交易進展都非常順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

    Carlos De Alba,摩根士丹利。

  • Carlos De alba - Analyst

    Carlos De alba - Analyst

  • Yes. It's basically a follow-on precisely on the last question, Lawson. So you have received $70 million already this year on asset sales. So should we expect you have any color on the cadence of the remaining, what is it, EUR 350 million in proceeds throughout the year or just this year is the expectation, but no further details from that.

    是的。這基本上是緊接著上一個問題,Lawson。所以你們今年迄今已經從資產出售收到 7,000 萬美元。那麼我們是否可以期待你們對於今年剩餘、也就是約 3.5 億歐元的處分款入帳節奏提供一些說明?還是說今年會收到是預期,但沒有更多細節?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Let's put $50 million in Q2 and $100 million in Q3, with the remainder in Q4.

    我們先假設第二季 5,000 萬美元、第三季 1 億美元,其餘在第四季。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Timna Tanners, Wells Fargo.

    Timna Tanners,富國銀行。

  • Timna Tanners - Equity Analyst

    Timna Tanners - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a little bit about the mix, if I could. Have plate market is really strong. And I just wanted to get a little more color on why the actions you took in -- if -- just talk about how that keeps your capability similar despite some of the closures? And then similarly, Stanson Electrical down year-over-year? And I thought Electrical was sold out for a couple of years. So just a bit more color on those products would be great.

    如果可以的話,我想問一下產品組合。厚板市場非常強勁。我想更了解一下,你們在——如果——談談你們採取的行動為何能在部分關閉的情況下仍維持類似的產能?另外,Stanson Electrical 年對年下滑?我原本以為電工鋼已經滿單好幾年了。所以希望能對這些產品多給一些說明。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • On plate, we shut down a bill that was basically taking care of one client and associated with the Q&T line that is inside Garyworks that doesn't belong to Cliffs. So the logistics was not very enticing. So all the rest remains the same. So what you said about the plate market is right. But we are talking about 1 specific client that was used in the 110 and the Q&T line at Garworks.

    關於厚板,我們關停了一座基本上只服務單一客戶的產線,且與 Gary Works 內部的一條 Q&T(淬火與回火)產線相關,而那條產線不屬於 Cliffs。因此物流條件並不吸引人。其餘部分都維持不變。所以你對厚板市場的看法是對的。但我們談的是一個特定客戶,他原本使用的是 110 以及 Gary Works 的 Q&T 產線。

  • So that's that -- so we could reconsolidate that and do another way. So there is nothing wrong with that because the 160 is now -- the 160-inch mill is now fully utilized. So that's all good we played.

    就是這樣——所以我們可以把它重新整合,改用其他方式來做。因此這沒有任何問題,因為 160——160 吋轧機現在已經滿載運轉。所以一切都很好,我們已經處理好了。

  • As far as electrical still we got to differentiate grain-oriented electrical steels that there is only 1 company that produced in the United States that's Cliffs, and oriented electrical steel that we have ourselves and a cup of Bs that are not producing very good material, but they are trying. But on the other hand, the biggest utilization of non-oriented electrical steel is electric vehicles.

    至於電工鋼,我們仍需區分取向電工鋼(grain-oriented electrical steels):在美國只有一家公司生產,那就是 Cliffs;以及無取向電工鋼(non-oriented electrical steel),我們自己也有,還有一些競爭對手(B 級)做得不太好,但他們正在嘗試。但另一方面,無取向電工鋼最大的用途是電動車。

  • So good luck with that for the ones that made investments to produce non-oriented electrical steels. As far as grain-oriented electrical steels, we are the ones not only the ones that produce but the ones that are growing production with our project in Butler. I hope I answered your question, Tim.

    所以祝那些投資生產無取向電工鋼的人好運。至於取向電工鋼,我們不僅是生產者,也是透過我們在 Butler 的專案來擴大產量的那一家。Tim,希望我回答了你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We ran have our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

    我們已經完成問答環節。我想把時間交回去,看看是否還有進一步或結語的評論。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you very much. Have a great day. Bye now.

    非常感謝。祝各位有美好的一天。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議與網路直播到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線,祝您有美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。