Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning ladies and gentlemen. I'm your conference facilitator today, Kevin, and I'd like to welcome everyone to Cleveland-Cliffs fourth quarter in full year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們、先生們,早安。我是今天的會議主持人凱文,歡迎大家參加克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司 2025 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。(操作說明)

  • The company will remind you that certain comments made on today's call will include predictive statements that are intended to be made as forward-looking within the safe harbor protections of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

    公司提醒各位,今天電話會議上發表的某些評論將包含預測性陳述,這些陳述旨在作為前瞻性陳述,符合 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港保護。

  • Although the company believes that its forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Important factors that could cause results to differ materially are set forth in reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q and news releases filed with SEC which are available on the company's website.

    儘管該公司認為其前瞻性聲明是基於合理的假設,但此類聲明存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。可能導致結果與預期存在重大差異的重要因素已在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格報告以及新聞稿中列出,這些報告和新聞稿可在公司網站上查閱。

  • Today's conference call is also available and being broadcast on clevelandcliffs.com. At the conclusion of the call, it will be archived on the website and available for replay. The company will also discuss results excluding certain special items. Reconciliation for Regulation-G purposes can be found in the earnings release, which was published this morning.

    今天的電話會議也可在 clevelandcliffs.com 網站上收聽和觀看。會議結束後,會議錄音將存檔在網站上,可供回放。本公司也將討論剔除某些特殊項目後的績效。符合 G 條例規定的對帳資訊可在今天早上發布的獲利報告中查閱。

  • At this time, I'd like to introduce Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer.

    在此,我謹向大家介紹董事長、總裁兼執行長洛倫索‧貢薩爾維斯先生。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. After several years of no real actions taken to reverse the systematic destruction of the American industrial bases, we finally saw in 2025, a federal administration that values the importance of preserving and growing American manufacturing.

    謝謝你,凱文,大家早安。在多年沒有採取任何實際行動來扭轉美國工業基礎的系統性破壞之後,我們終於在 2025 年看到了一個重視保護和發展美國製造業的聯邦政府。

  • That said, in 2025, throughout the entire year, we were still exposed to a lot of steel imports, poisoning our domestic market, creating a demand gap that negatively impacted our steel shipments and asset utilization. In response to these challenging conditions, we made difficult decisions on shutting down assets that are dragging us down.

    也就是說,在 2025 年,我們全年仍受到大量鋼鐵進口的影響,這毒害了我們的國內市場,造成了需求缺口,對我們的鋼鐵出貨量和資產利用率產生了負面影響。面對這些嚴峻的局勢,我們做出了艱難的決定,關閉了那些拖累我們的資產。

  • Also, in 2025, we terminated our index-based lab supply contract with ArcelorMittal. The contract became very onerous in its final year when the Brazilian slab price index unnaturally separated from the US finished steel prices. The factors that waited on our performance in 2025 were well-known and addressable. As we entered 2026, these problems have either been resolved or are clearly improving.

    此外,2025 年,我們終止了與安賽樂米塔爾的基於指數的實驗室供應合約。合約在最後一年變得非常苛刻,因為巴西鋼坯價格指數與美國成品鋼材價格出現了異常的脫鉤。影響我們2025年表現的因素是眾所皆知的,也是可以解決的。進入 2026 年,這些問題要么已經解決,要么明顯有所改善。

  • We have already secured more business from our automotive clients, and that will show throughout 2026 as the OEMs reassure production back to the United States. Also very important, at the end of 2025, the Canadian Government has finally made a move to restricting imported steel into Canada, and that has created positive momentum in 2026 for our Canadian subsidiary Stelco.

    我們已經從汽車客戶那裡獲得了更多業務,隨著汽車製造商向美國恢復生產,這將在 2026 年得到體現。還有非常重要的一點是,2025 年底,加拿大政府終於採取措施限制進口鋼鐵進入加拿大,這為我們的加拿大子公司 Stelco 在 2026 年創造了積極的勢頭。

  • Our robust order book is the best confirmation that the business environment has already started to improve. Section 232 tariffs at 50% are, of course, a leading driver of this impact. We are seeing the benefit of melted import requirements in driving demand for domestically produced steel. A lot of the new galvanizing capacity in the US has come online and taking share from imports, reducing the amount of hot-rolled availability in the marketplace.

    我們強勁的訂單量就是商業環境已經開始好轉的最佳證明。當然,第 232 條規定的 50% 關稅是造成這種影響的主要驅動因素。我們看到,熔煉進口需求的減少對推動國內生產鋼材的需求產生了正面影響。美國許多新的鍍鋅產能已經投產,搶佔了進口市場份額,減少了市場上熱軋鋅的供應。

  • We have been able to use the melting capacity previously allocated through orders of low-margin slabs to few orders of higher-margin flat-rolled products. That said, due to melted import requirements, we anticipate continued demand for our domestically produced labs. We remain open to being a domestic's lab supplier to those in need of domestic labs as long as we can agree on a pricing construct that makes sense.

    我們已經能夠將先前分配給低利潤鋼坯訂單的熔煉能力,轉移到少數高利潤扁軋產品訂單上。儘管如此,由於進口需求下降,我們預計對我們國內生產的實驗室產品的需求將持續存在。只要我們能夠就合理的定價結構達成一致,我們仍然願意為那些需要國內實驗室服務的人提供國內實驗室服務。

  • With all these positive influence, the spot steel price is sitting at a two-year high. Later in the recent cold weather stretch across the Midwest, scrap prices and electricity prices have continued to grind higher, which has increased the cost structure of the mini mills to a greater level than our own. This has given us a cost advantage as we generate a lot of our own power and use much less scrap.

    受上述種種正面因素影響,現貨鋼材價格已達到兩年來的最高水準。最近中西部地區遭遇寒潮,廢鋼價格和電力價格持續上漲,導緻小型鋼廠的成本結構比我們自己的鋼廠更高。由於我們自己發電量很大,廢料消耗量也少得多,這使我們獲得了成本優勢。

  • Even with our sizable fixed price automotive footprint, because of our vertically integrated nature and the also significant size of our non-automotive customer base Cliffs' profitability is more impacted by spot steel prices than any other company in our industry. Said another way, when hot-rolled coil prices rally, we at Cleveland-Cliffs benefit.

    即使我們擁有龐大的固定價格汽車業務,但由於我們垂直整合的性質以及非汽車客戶群的規模也相當可觀,克里夫斯公司的盈利能力比業內任何其他公司都更容易受到現貨鋼材價格的影響。換句話說,當熱軋捲板價格上漲時,克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司就會受益。

  • Automotive is still our core end market. And when domestic production levels of car, trucks and SUVs remain weak for an extended period, the impact on us is unavoidable. Vehicle production in the United States was down in 2025 for the third consecutive year. But with this new era of policy-driven reshoring, the return to pre-COVID levels of vehicle production in the United States is inevitable.

    汽車產業仍然是我們的核心終端市場。當國內汽車、卡車和SUV的生產水準長期疲軟時,對我們造成的影響是不可避免的。2025年美國汽車產量連續第三年下降。但隨著政策驅動的製造業回流新時代的到來,美國汽車產量恢復到新冠疫情前的水準是不可避免的。

  • Throughout 2025, we geared up for this inevitability by signing multi-year fixed price contracts with all major OEM customers. These agreements increased our market share and secured high-margin business that will flow through in 2026.

    2025 年全年,我們透過與所有主要 OEM 客戶簽訂多年固定價格合同,為應對這一不可避免的情況做好了準備。這些協議提高了我們的市場份額,並確保了高利潤業務,這些業務將在 2026 年實現盈利。

  • We have the installed capacity available right now. Cliffs does not need to build new plants. Unfortunately, the transition to Cliffs Steel from the previous suppliers is not instantaneous. It takes some time before we see the full impact of these changeovers, but we will see it in 2026. The expected combination of these market share gains with an increased domestic production of vehicles will be a massive gain for our throughput, efficiency, costs and ultimately, profits.

    我們目前已具備所需的安裝容量。克利夫斯公司不需要建造新的工廠。遺憾的是,從先前的供應商過渡到 Cliffs Steel 並非一蹴可幾。這些變革的全部影響還需要一段時間才能顯現,但我們將在 2026 年看到它的影響。預計市場份額的成長與國內汽車產量的增加相結合,將大大提高我們的產能、效率、降低成本,並最終提高利潤。

  • One more time, differently from our competitors currently building new steel plants or announcing plans to build steel plants, Cleveland-Cliffs has production capacity available right now. Again, Cliffs does not need to build plants to be ready in 2028, 2029 or 2030. The incremental volume demanded by the automotive industry can and will be absorbed by our existing footprint.

    再次強調,與目前正在興建新鋼鐵廠或宣佈興建鋼鐵廠計畫的競爭對手不同,克里夫蘭-克里夫斯公司現在就擁有可用的生產能力。再次強調,克里夫斯公司無需建造工廠即可在 2028 年、2029 年或 2030 年做好準備。汽車業新增的銷售需求完全可以而且也必將由我們現有的產能來滿足。

  • That volume carries attractive incremental margins. And thanks to our multi-year fixed price contracts with all major automotive OEMs, there will be no pressure on the price of cars to consumers in the US that could even remotely be attributed to the price of Cliffs Steel.

    該銷量帶來了可觀的增量利潤。由於我們與所有主要汽車原始設備製造商簽訂了多年固定價格合同,因此美國消費者的汽車價格不會受到任何壓力,即使這種壓力可能與克里夫斯鋼鐵的價格有任何關聯。

  • Another example of the progress we continue to demonstrate in automotive is our successful replacement of aluminum with steel using aluminum forming equipment. Our Cliffs steel is now stepped into exposed automotive components using existing forming equipment on a production scale basis. This Cleveland-Cliffs development demonstrates that the changeover from aluminum to steel can be easily done without requiring new tooling or capital investment from the customer.

    我們在汽車領域不斷取得進步的另一個例子是,我們成功地使用鋁成型設備用鋼取代了鋁。我們目前已利用現有的成型設備,將克里夫斯公司的鋼材大規模生產成汽車零件。克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司的這項成果表明,從鋁材到鋼材的轉換可以輕鬆完成,無需客戶投入新的工具或資金。

  • That significantly lowers the barrier to adoption and expand the addressable market for our Cliffs steel products, particularly as the aluminum supply chain has suffered severe disruption with a succession of fire events, clearly exposing its weakness more than ever before. Cleveland-Cliffs is seeing a clear path to replace aluminum with made in USA steel in major applications.

    這大大降低了我們克利夫斯鋼鐵產品的採用門檻,並擴大了其目標市場,尤其是在鋁供應鏈因一系列火災事件而遭受嚴重干擾的情況下,這比以往任何時候都更加清楚地暴露了其弱點。克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司看到了在主要應用領域以美國製造的鋼材取代鋁材的明確途徑。

  • We operate in a market that companies from around the world are spending billions of dollars to enter. We are already here. We already have the assets. We already have the workforce as manufacturing activity in the United States continues to record, Cleveland-Cliffs is the best positioned to benefit without requiring massive capital investments.

    我們所處的市場,世界各地的公司都在投入數十億美元試圖進入。我們已經到了這裡。我們已經擁有這些資產。我們已經擁有了足夠的勞動力,隨著美國製造業活動的持續成長,克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司最有能力從中受益,而無需進行大規模的資本投資。

  • I want to drill down on another factor that impacted our 2025 performance, and that was the change in dynamics in the Canadian steel market. For the last several years, even under the previous tariff regime, pricing in the Canadian market moved in tandem with the US market. We acquired this Stelco on November 1, 2024, four days before President Trump's election and immediately took Stelco out of the US market, redirecting Stelco's output 100% to the Canadian market.

    我想深入探討影響我們 2025 年業績的另一個因素,那就是加拿大鋼鐵市場動態的變化。在過去幾年裡,即使在先前的關稅制度下,加拿大市場的價格走勢也與美國市場同步。我們在 2024 年 11 月 1 日收購了 Stelco 公司,也就是川普總統當選前四天,並立即將 Stelco 公司撤出美國市場,將 Stelco 公司的產量 100% 轉向加拿大市場。

  • This was not driven by policy change, but rather our conviction on what's in the best interest for our shareholders and our employees on both sides of the border. Even the all surprising change in Canada relations with the US should not have affected this strategy at all, but that's not how it played out.

    這並非出於政策改變的考量,而是出於我們對股東和員工(無論身處邊境哪一側)最大利益的信念。即使加拿大與美國關係發生了令人意想不到的變化,也不應該對這項戰略產生任何影響,但事實並非如此。

  • All of a sudden, Canada became a dumping ground for producers trying to avoid US tariffs, and downstream Canadian manufacturing was negatively impacted as well. Canadian pricing decoupled from US pricing. Until recently, the Canadian Government insisted on doing nothing about this unsustainable situation preferring to watch its steel industry flounder for the sake of globalism.

    突然之間,加拿大成了生產者為了規避美國關稅而傾銷商品的場所,下游的加拿大製造業也受到了負面影響。加拿大定價與美國定價脫鉤。直到最近,加拿大政府仍堅持對這種不可持續的局面不採取任何行動,寧願眼睜睜地看著本國鋼鐵業為了全球化而步履維艱。

  • After raising the alarm louder and louder, we finally saw the Canadian government come around late in the fourth quarter of 2025. While still insufficient and limited in scope, the restrictions implemented were at least able to stop the bleeding. As a result, we have seen Canadian pricing and shipments improved in the last month.

    在不斷發出警報之後,我們終於在 2025 年第四季末看到加拿大政府有所轉變。雖然這些限制措施仍然不足且範圍有限,但至少能夠止住頹勢。因此,我們看到加拿大產品的價格和出貨量在上個月有所改善。

  • Prior to our acquisition, Stelco was a low price exporter into the US and the highly disruptive one, by the way. When you look at the big picture, what our acquisition has done to transform and improve the US marketplace more than justifies and supports a return on our $2.5 billion purchase price of Stelco.

    在我們收購之前,Stelco 是一家向美國出口低價商品的公司,而且順便說一句,它還是一家極具顛覆性的公司。從宏觀角度來看,我們的收購對美國市場的改造和改善,完全證明了我們以 25 億美元收購 Stelco 的回報是合理的。

  • In the fourth quarter, we revealed that our memorandum of understanding partner was POSCO, Korea's largest steelmaker, and the world's third largest steel maker outside of China. The partnership with Cliffs, we will allow POSCO to support and grow its established US customer base while ensuring that its products meet US country of origin melted import requirements.

    第四季度,我們宣布與韓國最大的鋼鐵製造商、中國以外世界第三大鋼鐵製造商浦項鋼鐵公司簽署諒解備忘錄。透過與克里夫斯公司的合作,我們將使浦項製鐵能夠支持和發展其在美國已有的客戶群,同時確保其產品符合美國原產國熔化進口要求。

  • Our collaboration represents a model of how allies can deepen industrial cooperation under fair and transparent trade principles. And it aligns with US policy goals to strengthen domestic industry and attract foreign investment. POSCO continues to conduct due diligence as part of our recently announced strategic partnership. Both parties are focused on structuring a transaction that is highly accretive and strategically compelling for each company.

    我們的合作代表了盟友如何在公平透明的貿易原則下深化產業合作的典範。這與美國加強國內產業和吸引外國投資的政策目標一致。作為我們近期宣布的戰略合作夥伴關係的一部分,浦項鋼鐵將繼續進行盡職調查。雙方都致力於建立一項對雙方公司都具有高度增值性和戰略吸引力的交易。

  • The duration of these negotiations reflects the seriousness and potential scale of the opportunity. We are targeting signing a definitive agreement in the first half of 2026. This remains the number one strategic priority for both Cleveland-Cliffs and POSCO, and engagement between the teams is active and ongoing. Our MOU is non-binding, and we will only move forward on ratifying our partnership if the collaboration is accretive to Cliffs shareholders.

    談判持續時間之長反映了這次機會的重要性和潛在規模。我們的目標是在2026年上半年簽署最終協議。這仍然是克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司和浦項製鐵公司的首要策略重點,雙方團隊之間的合作正在積極進行中。我們的諒解備忘錄不具約束力,只有當合作能為克里夫斯公司股東帶來利益時,我們才會推進批准我們的合作關係。

  • I would like to conclude my remarks congratulating our employees for our remarkable safety record. In 2025, we achieved the lowest total recordable incident rate since Cleveland-Cliffs became a steel producer six years ago. Our TRIR, including contractors, which is unusual in our industry. We include contractors. Our TRIR was 0.8 per 200,000 hours worked. That represents a 43% improvement compared with 2021, which was our first full year operating as an integrated steelmaker.

    最後,我要祝賀我們的員工取得了卓越的安全記錄。2025 年,我們實現了自克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司六年前成為鋼鐵生產商以來最低的總可記錄事故率。我們的 TRIR 包括承包商,這在業界並不常見。我們也包括承包商。我們的 TRIR 為每 20 萬工時 0.8。與 2021 年相比,這代表著 43% 的改善,而 2021 年是我們作為一家綜合鋼鐵製造商運營的第一個完整年度。

  • This is a direct outcome of how we manage and operate in contrast with how the predecessors used to do with the same people and the same plants. Safety performance at this level requires discipline, consistency and leadership at every site. We have room for improvement. But the amount of progress we have seen in safety results since forming this new iteration of Cliffs six years ago is truly remarkable.

    這是我們管理和運作方式與前任們用同樣的人員和同樣的工廠進行管理和運作方式截然不同的直接結果。要達到這樣的安全績效水平,每個場所都需要紀律、一致性和領導力。我們還有提升空間。但自從六年前成立了新的克里夫斯公司以來,我們在安全方面的進步確實令人矚目。

  • I will now turn it over to our CFO, Celso Goncalves, for his remarks.

    現在我將把發言權交給我們的財務長塞爾索·貢薩爾維斯,請他發表演說。

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Good morning. Total shipments in Q4 were 3.8 million tons, which was slightly lower than Q3 due to heavier-than-usual seasonal impacts. Looking forward, Q1 shipment levels should improve back to the 4 million-ton level again, driven by improved demand and less maintenance time at our mills.

    早安.第四季總出貨量為 380 萬噸,由於季節性影響比往年更為嚴重,略低於第三季。展望未來,在需求改善和工廠維護時間減少的推動下,第一季出貨量應該會再次回升至 400 萬噸水準。

  • My expectation for full year 2026 shipment level is in the 16.5 million- to 17 million-ton range, an improvement from 2025 as we run our mills at higher utilizations. Q4 price realization of $993 per net ton fell by around $40 per net ton as the lagging indices on spot prices declined. Automotive volume fell and slab prices became even more disconnected.

    我預計 2026 年全年出貨量將在 1,650 萬至 1,700 萬噸之間,比 2025 年有所提高,因為我們的工廠利用率更高。第四季實際價格為每淨噸 993 美元,由於現貨價格滯後指數下跌,每淨噸價格下跌了約 40 美元。汽車銷售量下降,鋼板價格與汽車價格的脫節程度進一步加劇。

  • Since these factors are largely behind us, I expect a substantial improvement in realized prices starting in Q1 of 2026, an increase of approximately $60 per ton from Q4 of 2025. As pricing continues to grind higher and assuming this trend continues, we will likely see even further increases in this price as the year progresses.

    由於這些因素基本上已經過去,我預計從 2026 年第一季開始,實際價格將大幅改善,比 2025 年第四季每噸上漲約 60 美元。隨著價格持續攀升,假設這種趨勢持續下去,隨著時間的推移,我們可能會看到價格進一步上漲。

  • On the operations side, 2025 represented our third straight year of unit cost reductions, with another $40 per ton reduced last year. The much needed rationalization of our footprint and reduction of around 3,300 employees last year was a big part of that.

    在營運方面,2025 年是我們連續第三年降低單位成本,去年每噸又降低了 40 美元。去年,我們進行了必要的佈局合理化調整,裁減了約 3300 名員工,這是其中的重要因素。

  • We have further momentum heading into 2026 as we locked in coal contracts that generate over $100 million of savings year-over-year and an expectation of much higher utilizations, both in melt and in our finishing operations. Combining this with some partial offsets in utilities and labor costs, we expect unit cost to decline again for a fourth straight year, down another $10 per ton in 2026.

    進入 2026 年,我們將繼續保持強勁勢頭,因為我們鎖定了煤炭合同,每年可節省超過 1 億美元,並且預計熔煉和精煉業務的利用率將大幅提高。考慮到公用事業和勞動成本的部分抵消,我們預計單位成本將連續第四年下降,到 2026 年每噸再下降 10 美元。

  • On an apples-to-apples basis with 2025, the reduction is even greater as we are also selling a richer mix this year without slabs, making the year-over-year reduction even more impressive. With that said, for the first quarter of 2026, the recent spike in utilities costs and change in mix will likely push costs up temporarily before normalizing into Q2. As a reminder, we generally hedge 50% of our natural gas exposure are looking forward one year.

    與 2025 年相比,降幅更大,因為我們今年銷售的混合裝產品更加豐富,而且沒有使用板材,這使得同比降幅更加令人印象深刻。也就是說,2026 年第一季度,近期公用事業成本的飆升和結構變化可能會暫時推高成本,然後在第二季度恢復正常。再次提醒,我們通常會對 50% 的天然氣風險敞口進行對沖,目標期限為一年。

  • On CapEx, we had a record low year in 2025 in capital expenditures as a steel company, with only $561 million spent. 2026 total CapEx is projected to be around $700 million, reflecting more normalized maintenance capital as well as some pre-work and a coke plant upgrade ahead of the Burns Harbor furnace reline plan for 2027.

    在資本支出方面,作為一家鋼鐵公司,我們在2025年的資本支出創歷史新低,僅5.61億美元。預計2026年的總資本支出約為7億美元,這反映了更多正常的維護性資本支出,以及一些前期準備工作和焦化廠升級,為2027年伯恩斯港高爐內襯改造計畫做準備。

  • Annual pension and OPEB cash obligations continue to decline. With the HRC curve where it is and automotive volumes ultimately returning, I expect to return back to healthy cash flow generation in 2026, all of which will be used to pay down debt.

    年度退休金和退休後福利現金支出持續下降。鑑於 HRC 曲線目前處於什麼狀態,以及汽車銷量最終會恢復,我預計到 2026 年將恢復健康的現金流,所有這些現金流都將用於償還債務。

  • Asset sale processes continue and they should bring us more cash proceeds throughout the year. We have already closed the sale of FPT Florida, and we are under contract to sell several idled properties with agreements in principle for the majority of the rest. My expectation of the $425 million in total proceeds from these sales remains intact.

    資產出售流程仍在繼續,預計今年將為我們帶來更多現金收益。我們已經完成了 FPT Florida 的出售,並且我們已經簽訂了出售幾處閒置房產的合同,其餘大部分房產也已達成原則性協議。我對此次銷售總收益為 4.25 億美元的預期依然不變。

  • Some of the larger asset sale processes remain in a holding pattern while the POSCO talks remain ongoing, but we have several options out there that we are evaluating. One major success we had in 2025 was balance sheet management, particularly in the fourth quarter. From a pure dollar perspective, our leverage remains too elevated for my liking, but the shape and format of our debt structure gives us incredible runway and flexibility.

    雖然與浦項鋼鐵的談判仍在進行中,但一些較大的資產出售流程仍處於擱置狀態,不過我們正在評估幾個可行的方案。我們在 2025 年取得的一項重大成功是資產負債表管理,尤其是在第四季。從純粹的美元角度來看,我們的槓桿率仍然過高,我不太喜歡,但我們債務結構的形狀和形式給了我們極大的緩衝空間和靈活性。

  • After the refinancing that we completed in 2025, our nearest bond maturity is now in 2029, and all of our outstanding bonds are unsecured. Our ABL draw is the lowest it has been since the Stelco acquisition, and our total liquidity to end 2025 was $3.3 billion. The focus this year is on generating EBITDA and cash flow. I feel much better about where we are today versus where we were 12 months ago.

    在我們在 2025 年完成再融資後,我們最近的債券到期日是 2029 年,我們所有未償債券都是無擔保債券。自收購 Stelco 以來,我們的 ABL 提取額最低,到 2025 年底,我們的總流動資金為 33 億美元。今年的重點是創造 EBITDA 和現金流。與12個月前相比,我對我們目前的處境感覺好多了。

  • Looking ahead, our order book is solid, demand is improving, lead times are going out, prices are rising, costs are still coming down, tariffs are in place, the slab contract is gone, manufacturing is coming back, unemployment is low, rate cuts are here, tax refunds are coming, Stelco is contributing, autos are looking to replace aluminum with steel, POSCO is collaborating, our employees are incentivized and our operations and commercial teams are working together towards the same goal to maximize profitability in 2026.

    展望未來,我們的訂單充足,需求正在改善,交貨週期正在延長,價格正在上漲,成本仍在下降,關稅已經生效,鋼坯合約已經結束,製造業正在復蘇,失業率很低,降息政策已經實施,退稅即將到來,Stelco正在做出貢獻,汽車行業正在尋求用鋼材替代鋁材,POSCO正在開展合作,我們的員工正在最大化206年利潤

  • With that, I'll turn the call back over to Lourenco for his closing remarks.

    接下來,我將把電話轉回給洛倫索,請他作總結發言。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Celso. 2025 was about fixing what needed to be fixed, making tough but necessary decisions and positioning Cleveland-Cliffs for sustainable performance in a fundamentally improved market. Those actions are now largely behind us.

    謝謝你,塞爾索。 2025 年的重點是解決需要解決的問題,做出艱難但必要的決定,並使克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司在一個根本性改善的市場中實現永續發展。那些行動現在基本上已經成為過去了。

  • As we move through 2026, we are operating with a linear footprint, a stronger order book, improving price realization, declining unit costs and a clear line of sight to higher utilization and cash generation.

    展望 2026 年,我們將以線性佈局運營,擁有更強勁的訂單儲備,不斷提高價格實現率,降低單位成本,並清楚地看到更高的利用率和現金流。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Kevin for the Q&A.

    接下來,我會把問答環節交給凱文。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

    卡洛斯·德阿爾巴,摩根士丹利。

  • Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

    Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

  • My first question is on the benefit that you expect on the cancellation of the slab contract this year. Given the running prices that we have seen, can you maybe update us as to how much EBITDA more or less or any other form of benefit that you expect to see from these contracts expiring?

    我的第一個問題是,您預計今年取消地基合約會帶來什麼好處。鑑於我們目前看到的股價走勢,您能否告知我們,這些合約到期後,您預計會帶來多少 EBITDA 增減或其他形式的收益?

  • And then maybe we can -- just on CapEx beyond 2026, given the relining that you expect on 2027, how much should we pencil in give or take for CapEx in 2027?

    那麼,或許我們可以——就 2026 年以後的資本支出而言,考慮到您預計在 2027 年進行內襯更換,我們應該為 2027 年的資本支出預留多少預算呢?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Carlos, I will answer the question on the slabs. And I will let also talk about the CapEx one. As far as these slabs, when we sold -- I'm sorry, when we acquired ArcelorMittal USA. from ArcelorMittal, we had that slab contract, the last item that we had to negotiate. And it was more about duration than pricing formula because pricing formula was based on the international price of slabs and referencing the Brazilian slab prices just because Brazil was by far the largest exporter of slabs at the time.

    是的。卡洛斯,我會回答關於石板的問題。我也會談談資本支出方面的問題。至於這些板材,當我們出售——抱歉,是當我們從安賽樂米塔爾收購安賽樂米塔爾美國公司時,我們有那份板材合同,那是我們必須談判的最後一項內容。而且,這與工期有關,而不是定價公式,因為定價公式是基於國際板材價格,並參考巴西板材價格,僅僅是因為巴西當時是最大的板材出口國。

  • So -- and for four of the five years, the contract to work it. And then on the fifth year, magically, the separation between the price of slabs and the price of hot band turned that contract into a disaster. And we try to negotiate the contract, but we were unsuccessful because short-term gains for them were more important than the long-term relationship. So I'm fine with that.

    所以——五年中的四年,合約都規定要從事這項工作。然後到了第五年,神奇的是,鋼坯價格和熱帶鋼價格之間的差距,使得這份合約變成了一場災難。我們嘗試與他們協商合同,但沒有成功,因為對他們來說,短期利益比長期關係更重要。我對此沒有意見。

  • So I took it like a big boy, and now they don't have to have slabs anymore. So good luck on running their business here in the United States without having melted imported slabs made in Cleveland-Cliffs, not made in somewhere else. Somewhere else, does not know what they are doing. We know what we are doing. So they don't have these slabs anymore.

    所以我像個男子漢一樣接受了,現在他們再也不用有石板了。所以,祝他們在美國經營生意一切順利,因為他們沒有熔化克利夫蘭-克利夫斯生產的進口鋼板,而不是其他地方生產的鋼板。其他地方的人,不知道自己在做什麼。我們知道自己在做什麼。所以他們現在不再使用這種石板了。

  • And if I can put a number on the the gain, the EBITDA number by itself is to the order of $500 million just by replacing these slabs with higher margin. That's also a very high-level number and should be even more than that. But $500 million is a good number to start thinking about the gain of not heavy. And that's just a benefit on us, not the fact that competition for automotive business became automatically weaker when you don't make our slabs available to our competitor. I'll let Celso answer the other one on CapEx.

    如果我可以為收益量化一下,單單用利潤更高的產品取代這些產品,EBITDA 就能達到約 5 億美元。這已經是一個非常高的數字了,實際數字應該還會更高。但 5 億美元是一個不錯的數字,可以開始考慮收益是否足夠大了。這只是對我們有利,而不是因為我們不向競爭對手提供我們的鋼板,汽車產業的競爭就自動減弱了。關於資本支出的另一個問題,就讓塞爾索來回答吧。

  • Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

    Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

  • Sorry, maybe before we move to Celso, please. Quick question on when should we expect to see the beginning of this, around EUR500 million improvement in EBITDA already in Q1, or is it more Q2?

    抱歉,或許在我們搬到塞爾索之前可以。請問我們該何時才能看到這種情況開始出現?是第一季 EBITDA 改善約 5 億歐元,還是要等到第二季?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Look, we are already selling the material in Q1, yes. So -- but of course, you know how these things work. The cost flow through inventory, and you're going to see more impact in Q2 than in Q1 and then more impact in Q3 than in Q2, but that's our projection for the year.

    是的。是的,我們第一季已經開始銷售這種材料了。所以——當然,你也知道這些事情是怎麼運作的。成本會透過庫存流動,你會看到第二季受到的影響比第一季更大,第三季受到的影響又比第二季更大,但這是我們對全年的預測。

  • Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

    Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

  • Yes. Carlos, if you think about it, right, the HRC price is $9.70 or so and the slab price was like $4.85. So it's a pretty immediate improvement in terms of revenue at the current price, it's like a $700 million improvement in revenue at current market prices. And then you consider, call it, $150 million increase in conversion cost to roll the slabs. That's the way to think about it on a full year basis for 2026.

    是的。卡洛斯,你仔細想想,HRC的價格大約是9.70美元,而板材的價格大約是4.85美元。所以,以當前價格計算,收入的提升非常迅速,以當前市場價格計算,收入大約增加了7億美元。然後你還要考慮,軋製鋼坯的轉換成本可能會增加 1.5 億美元。這就是對2026年全年狀況的思考方式。

  • Yes, and then as it relates to CapEx, as I mentioned, 2025 was a record low at $5.65. We had dramatically reduced spend at Stelco. We had CapEx avoidance related to idle facilities and asset optimization and things like that. 2026 will be more normalized, that $700 million. Call it, more normalized maintenance spend and some pre-work and pre-spend related to the Burns Harbor reline in 2027.

    是的,至於資本支出方面,正如我所提到的,2025 年的預期價格創歷史新低,為 5.65 美元。我們大幅削減了在 Stelco 的支出。我們透過閒置設施和資產優化等方式避免了資本支出。到2026年,這7億美元的支出將會更加正常化。可以稱之為更正常的維護支出,以及與 2027 年 Burns Harbor 管道更換相關的一些前期工作和前期支出。

  • And then beyond '27, it goes to, call it, $900 million in '27 and then back down to $700 million in 2028. And the only reason that '27 goes to $900 million is largely because of that blast furnace realign at Burns Harbor.

    然後,到了 2027 年,這個數字會達到,比如說,2027 年達到 9 億美元,然後到 2028 年又會回落到 7 億美元。2027 年造價達到 9 億美元的唯一原因,主要是因為伯恩斯港的高爐進行了重新調整。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

    Nick Giles,B. Riley Securities。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Lourenco, you outlined the capacity you have today and attract incremental margins on what I heard is uncontracted volumes. So you've layered in some multiyear agreements. But I was wondering if you could give us a sense for how much open capacity that is, what could still be contracted and similar to Carlos questions, just any sensitivity from an EBITDA perspective.

    Lourenco,你概述了你目前的產能,據我所知,你從未簽訂合約的銷售中獲得了增量利潤。所以你們加入了一些多年期協議。但我很想知道您能否讓我們了解一下目前有多少空置產能,還有多少產能可以簽訂合同,以及與 Carlos 的問題類似的,從 EBITDA 的角度來看,任何敏感性分析。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Look, we have downstream capacity in pretty much every single location that we operate in. Just to give you an idea, let me take a simple example. Single-line galvanizing line we have in Columbus, Ohio. That was one of the first assets that were got in the -- were cut the attention for POSCO. We run that line at less than 300,000 tons a year.

    是的。你看,我們在幾乎所有營運地點都擁有下游產能。為了讓您有個概念,我舉個簡單的例子。我們在俄亥俄州哥倫布市擁有一條單線鍍鋅生產線。那是浦項鋼鐵公司最早獲得的資產之一,因此受到了更多關注。我們這條生產線的年產量不到30萬噸。

  • That line has a capacity of 450,000 tons a year. We can produce all kinds of exposed parts over there. But we don't run at full capacity because the OEMs don't produce cars in the United States as much as they should. They produce in Mexico, they import from Korea, they import from other places, and that's what kind of queues our automotive business. And it has been abundantly clear since day one of the Trump administration.

    該生產線年產能為45萬噸。我們可以在那裡生產各種外露零件。但我們無法滿載運轉,因為汽車製造商在美國的汽車產量沒有達到應有的水準。他們在墨西哥生產,從韓國進口,從其他地方進口,這就是我們汽車業務的現狀。這一點從川普政府執政的第一天起就顯而易見。

  • The directive is to produce cars in the United States, not importing cash from Korea and putting a stamp of an American OEM on top of that. It's still a Korean car. It's not an American car. It's not generating American jobs. So that's what queues our capacity utilization. We need this maybe, let's say, automotive production in order to utilize our capacity.

    指令要求在美國生產汽車,而不是從韓國進口現金,然後貼上美國汽車製造商的標籤。它仍然是一輛韓國車。這不是美國車。它並沒有創造美國的就業機會。這就是影響我們產能利用率的原因。我們或許需要發展汽車生產,以充分利用我們的產能。

  • What I just explained with numbers for Columbus, Ohio. I can do the same thing for Rockport, Indiana, for other downstream facilities like what we call, New Carlyle, Indiana, that used to called Tech & Cult under previous ownership. We have a lot of capacity to deploy. And it's a matter of just moving from commodity type, which, by the way, now is extremely profitable to a more specialized type of steel that it's typical Cleveland-Cliffs type of capability or forte in terms of the technology.

    我剛才用俄亥俄州哥倫布市的數字解釋了這一點。我可以對印第安納州羅克波特市以及其他下游工廠(例如我們稱之為印第安納州新卡萊爾的工廠,該工廠在前任所有者手中曾被稱為 Tech & Cult)做同樣的事情。我們擁有強大的部署能力。這只是從大宗商品類型(順便說一句,這種類型現在利潤非常豐厚)轉向更專業化的鋼鐵類型的問題,而這正是克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司在技術方面典型的能力或優勢。

  • By the way, we have the technology. We are a well-known and well recognized supplier of automotive still in the international scale. And we knew that all along. Now we have the agreement of POSCO on that. So there is nothing that we need to learn from POSCO to how to do stuff. We know how to do stuff. We just don't have the orders. But now we're going to have it.

    順便說一句,我們已經掌握了這項技術。我們是國際上知名且備受認可的汽車零件供應商。我們一直都知道這一點。現在我們已經得到了浦項鋼鐵公司的同意。所以,我們不需要向浦項製鐵學習任何做事方法。我們知道該怎麼做。我們根本沒有訂單。但現在我們終於要擁有它了。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • I really appreciate all that detail. My second question was really just around the outlook, particularly here in 1Q. HRC has obviously risen dramatically. So can you just help us set expectations around ASP and costs and maybe just volumes as well?

    我非常感謝您提供的所有細節。我的第二個問題其實是關於前景的,特別是第一季的前景。人權運動的影響力顯然大幅提升。所以,您能否幫我們設定一下對平均售價、成本以及銷售量的預期?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I'll have Celso handle that for you.

    是的。我會讓塞爾索幫你處理這件事。

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Hi, Nick, let me give you guys some general guidance for Q1 and the rest of 2026. So for Q1, shipments should return back to that 4 million-ton mark, and that's largely driven by improved demand, both in the US and Canada. Q1 auto shipments are expected to improve back to the, call it, Q3 of '25 levels or better.

    是的。嗨,Nick,讓我給你們一些關於2026年第一季和剩餘時間的整體指引。因此,第一季的出貨量應該會恢復到 400 萬噸的水平,這主要是由於美國和加拿大的需求改善所致。預計第一季汽車出貨量將回升至 2025 年第三季的水平,甚至更高。

  • As I mentioned, ASP is expected to be up $60 a ton in Q1. And all that pricing that negatively impacted Q4 is now positive for Q1. The monthly lag, the quarter lags and the spot pricing are all up. Canadian pricing is also improving. We talked about the end of the slab contract and the automotive volumes increasing is also a benefit.

    正如我之前提到的,預計第一季平均售價將上漲每噸 60 美元。而所有對第四季產生負面影響的價格因素,現在都對第一季產生了正面影響。月度滯後、季度滯後和現貨價格均上漲。加拿大的物價也在改善。我們討論了板材合約的結束以及汽車產量增加也是一個利好因素。

  • The way that we calculate ASP has changed slightly. So let me give you guys the new kind of guidelines for that given the expiration of the slab contract and the increased automotive volume. The way to think about it going forward is around 35% to 40% is on a fixed full year price with resets throughout the year, obviously. And then 25% of the volumes are on a CRE month lag, 10% is on a CRU quarter lag. And then the balance, call it, 25% to 30% is the spot and other, including the Stelco volumes. So that's the way to think about ASP going forward.

    我們計算平均售價的方法略有改變。鑑於平板合約到期和汽車產量增加,讓我為大家介紹一下這方面的新指導方針。展望未來,我們可以這樣理解:大約 35% 到 40% 的收益將以固定全年價格計價,當然,價格會在一年中進行調整。其中 25% 的交易量落後於 CRE 月,10% 的交易量落後於 CRU 季度。然後,剩下的部分,姑且稱之為 25% 到 30% 吧,是現貨和其他部分,包括 Stelco 的交易量。所以這就是未來思考ASP發展方向的方式。

  • Costs in Q1 will likely be up around $20 a ton before normalizing into Q2. But as I mentioned earlier, on a full year basis, the cost from '25 to '26 on a full year basis is expected to decline $10 per ton with further even with adjustments for richer mix and the expiration of the slab contract. So on an apples-to-apples basis, the cost will be down even more, but should be down around $10 per ton with the current construct. I think with that, you should have everything you need for -- to get a sense for Q1 and the full year 2026.

    第一季成本可能會上漲約 20 美元/噸,然後在第二季恢復正常。但正如我之前提到的,從全年來看,2025 年到 2026 年的全年成本預計每噸將下降 10 美元,即使考慮到更豐富的混合料和板材合約到期等因素,成本還會進一步下降。因此,以同等條件計算,成本還會進一步下降,但按照目前的結構,每噸成本應該會下降約 10 美元。我認為有了這些訊息,你應該就能對 2026 年第一季和全年有個大致了解了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lawson Winder, Bank of America.

    勞森·溫德,美國銀行。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • If I could ask on POSCO, like I think there's no question that it is serious and potentially transformational for Cliffs. I was just curious, you made the remark that POSCO is still continuing their due diligence. Has Cleveland-Cliffs completed its due diligence on POSCO?

    如果我能問問關於浦項製鐵(POSCO)的問題,我認為毫無疑問,這對克里夫斯來說是一件嚴肅且可能具有變革性的事情。我只是好奇,你剛才提到浦項鋼鐵仍在繼續進行盡職調查。克里夫蘭-克里夫斯公司是否已完成對浦項鋼鐵公司的盡職調查?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Look, yes, that's correct, number one. Number two, keep in mind, Lawson, they came to us. We did not look for them. So that's a very important point to consider. So that shows that we feel like they need us probably much more than we need them. That's my view.

    沒錯,第一點。第二,記住,勞森,是他們主動來找我們的。我們沒有去找他們。所以這一點非常重要,需要考慮。這顯示我們覺得他們更需要我們,而不是我們更需要他們。這是我的看法。

  • That said, we are proud of our negotiation and our conversation and our potential partnership. One thing to keep in mind. Our Cleveland-Cliffs Board of Directors will not approve any deal that's not accretive to our shareholders. So that's what we're working on.

    儘管如此,我們為我們的談判、對話以及我們潛在的合作夥伴關係感到自豪。有一點要記住。克里夫蘭-克里夫斯董事會不會批准任何對股東利益無益的交易。這就是我們正在努力的方向。

  • Forming a partnership with POSCO is our number one strategic priority at this point. And based on what they say to us, that's the same thing for POSCO. We believe that we would be able to provide to POSCO, the ability to meet US trade and all the requirements, particularly melted import into the United States in the short term, what they need, absolutely need. They will not be able to sell here without complying with that requirement, that thing is not going to change. It's clear at this point.

    現階段,與浦項製鐵建立合作關係是我們最重要的策略重點。根據他們告訴我們的情況來看,浦項鋼鐵的情況也是如此。我們相信,我們能夠為浦項製鐵提供滿足美國貿易和所有要求的能力,特別是短期內滿足美國熔煉進口的要求,這是他們絕對需要的。如果不遵守這項規定,他們就無法在這裡銷售,這一點不會改變。這一點已經很清楚了。

  • And this is a market that everybody wants to be in. And we are the only possibility for any company that is outside of the border of the United States to be inside the border of the United States. So POSCO is in the pole position, in a very comfortable position to have a partnership with us. We absolutely love working with them, and they seem to like working with us. Now it's a matter of finalizing an agreement that's accretive to both Cliffs and POSCO, what should not be difficult to accomplish.

    這是每個人都想進入的市場。對於任何一家位於美國境外的公司而言,我們是唯一能夠進入美國境內的公司。因此,浦項鋼鐵處於領先地位,非常有利於與我們建立合作關係。我們非常喜歡和他們一起工作,他們似乎也很喜歡和我們一起工作。現在的問題是敲定一項對克里夫斯公司和浦項鋼鐵公司都有利的協議,這應該不難實現。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • That was very helpful. If I could ask one following question. Just on the aluminum opportunity, I mean, I think it's really intriguing. Could you maybe frame that up for us in terms of the size of the opportunity to take share from aluminum in terms of tonnages. And then what would be the time line to achieve those tonnages?

    那很有幫助。我可以問一個問題嗎?就鋁業的機會而言,我認為這真的很有吸引力。您能否從噸位角度,為我們分析一下從鋁業奪取市場份額的機會規模?那麼,要達到這些噸位目標,時間表是什麼?

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Look, this was the type of thing that we have been asking for an opportunity to prove ourselves to our clients. And for some reason, they were committed to keep the status quo in place until they are no longer because it's not just the ones that use massive amounts of aluminum. That's obvious. That's absolutely obvious.

    是的。你看,這正是我們一直以來所要求的,一個向客戶證明我們能力的機會。出於某種原因,他們堅持維持現狀,直到他們不再需要這種現狀為止,因為不僅僅是那些大量使用鋁的人。這顯而易見。這顯而易見。

  • We can't rely on supply chain of aluminum that very weak in the United States, and they proved that by having a succession of fires in the same plant in a space of 40 days or 45 days. And also truly dependent from aluminum produced abroad, knowing that Canada is another country, like they like to say, we are not a 51st state. Yes, we agree with that. It's outside of the border of the United States, it's another country. Yes.

    我們不能依賴美國如此薄弱的鋁供應鏈,而同一家工廠在 40 或 45 天內接連發生火災也證明了這一點。而且,我們確實非常依賴國外生產的鋁,要知道加拿大是另一個國家,就像他們喜歡說的那樣,我們不是第 51 州。是的,我們同意。它位於美國國界之外,是另一個國家。是的。

  • So that's why they are subject to Section 232 and will continue to be because they are another country. So aluminum from Canada is not a strategic solution for the supply chain. And then we proved our point that stamping aluminum or stamping steel for the type of steel that we Cleveland-Cliffs produce is the same thing. And we proved that at this point with few different OEMs, and they know what they need to do, and we are ready for them.

    所以,這就是為什麼他們受第 232 條約束,並將繼續受其約束的原因,因為他們是另一個國家。因此,從加拿大進口鋁材並非供應鏈的策略解決方案。然後我們證明了我們的觀點,沖壓鋁材或沖壓我們克利夫蘭-克里夫斯公司生產的那種鋼材是一回事。我們已經透過與幾家不同的原始設備製造商合作證明了這一點,他們知道自己需要做什麼,我們也做好了準備。

  • Timing is on their control, not my control. We are ready. We proved that. We are getting orders at a production scale basis. And this should only be growing and the potential is the potential of the size of aluminum utilized. The best-selling vehicle in the United States has a lot of aluminum in the outside. We are starting to produce parts for that vehicle. That's all I can tell you without triggering any problems with my clients.

    時間安排由他們掌控,不由我掌控。我們準備好了。我們已經證明了這一點。我們正在以生產規模接到訂單。而這種趨勢只會不斷增長,其潛力取決於鋁材利用規模的潛力。美國最暢銷的車型外殼大量使用了鋁材。我們正在開始生產該車型的零件。為了避免給我的客戶帶來任何問題,我只能告訴你這麼多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alex Hacking, Citi.

    Alex Hacking,花旗銀行。

  • Alex Hacking - Analyst

    Alex Hacking - Analyst

  • Can you maybe quantify how big of a drag on earnings Stelco has been for the past few quarters, and therefore kind of by proxy, how much potential upside there is this Canadian markets turn around. And just for context, we're looking at a Canadian publicly traded peer that's guiding to losing over $250 a ton of EBITDA in 4Q. I assume Stelco is doing better than that, but yes, anything you could do to help quantify that?

    您能否量化一下 Stelco 在過去幾季對獲利的拖累程度,並由此間接地判斷一下加拿大市場反彈的潛在上漲空間有多大?順便提一下,我們正在關註一家加拿大上市同行,該公司預計第四季度每噸 EBITDA 將虧損超過 250 美元。我估計Stelco的情況比這好,不過,您能提供什麼方法來量化這一點嗎?

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Alex, it's Celso. We don't break down EBITDA by mill, but obviously, Stelco was disappointing in 2025, as you can imagine. But the good news is that they're a contributor now. We've seen a lot of improvement recently that will lead to significant EBITDA increase in 2026.

    是的。Alex,我是Celso。我們不按工廠細分 EBITDA,但顯然,正如你所想,Stelco 在 2025 年的表現令人失望。但好消息是,他們現在也是貢獻者了。我們最近看到了很多改進,這將使 2026 年 EBITDA 大幅成長。

  • And if you think of the big picture on a net basis, even though they haven't been contributing to the bottom line, it has kind of changed the dynamics of the market and has helped our US business. And that's only going to be amplified here as HRC pricing in the US has found some footing at a higher level. So you can't really think of Stelco as a standalone.

    從整體上看,儘管它們沒有對利潤做出貢獻,但它確實改變了市場格局,並幫助我們在美國的業務。而且,隨著美國HRC定價在較高水準上站穩腳跟,這種情況在這裡只會更加嚴重。所以你不能把Stelco當成獨立公司。

  • We're happy with the asset. We're happy with the people. They have -- we have great people that work for us at Stelco, but you have to think of the business as a whole. And going forward, they're going to be a much bigger contributor to the big picture.

    我們對這筆資產很滿意。我們對這些人很滿意。他們確實有——我們在Stelco擁有非常優秀的員工,但你必須從整體上考慮業務。展望未來,他們將在大局中發揮更大的作用。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Alex, Lourenco here. Let me add a little bit more on the Stelco comparison with a competitor. The competitor had the same business model still, selling to the United States. And we bought Stelco to do one thing that the competitor is ever willing to do, changing their business model to sell into Canada.

    是的。我是 Alex,我是 Lourenco。我再補充一點關於Stelco與競爭對手的比較。競爭對手仍沿用同樣的商業模式,向美國市場銷售產品。我們收購 Stelco 的目的,就是為了做競爭對手一直想做的事:改變其商業模式,向加拿大市場銷售產品。

  • And we did, like I said in my prepared remarks, a few days before President Trump was elected, let alone, President Trump was in office, and let alone, President Trump implementing Section 232 tariffs in April. So we did that in November. So we were way ahead of the game in terms of how to reposition Stelco.

    正如我在準備好的發言稿中所說,我們在川普總統當選前幾天就採取了行動,更不用說川普總統就職,更不用說川普總統在 4 月實施 232 條款關稅了。所以我們在十一月做了這件事。所以,在如何重新定位Stelco方面,我們遠遠領先其他競爭對手。

  • Another thing that we took from Stelco that we did not have before is made in Canada coke and our coke better over there, which is a US MC compliant feedstock. So that was a benefit for us. And that benefit will continue to be in place.

    我們從 Stelco 那裡得到的另一件我們以前沒有的東西是加拿大生產的焦炭,而且我們那裡的焦炭品質更好,它是符合美國 MC 標準的原料。所以這對我們來說是個好處。這項福利將繼續保留。

  • The other thing is that if we had not had all the imports from the United States being redirected to Canada and have the Canadian government accepting that as normal course of business would have had a completely different 2025. It took us almost one entire year to convince the Canadian government that was completely unsustainable situation. And we finally -- they finally made a move.

    另一件事是,如果我們沒有將所有來自美國的進口商品轉移到加拿大,而加拿大政府沒有接受這是正常的商業行為,那麼 2025 年將會完全不同。我們花了將近一年的時間才說服加拿大政府,這種情況完全無法持續。他們終於──他們終於採取行動了。

  • Move was a lot smaller than the move that we would like them to make, but that was enough for us to see a completely different dynamics in the domestic market in Canada. So the comparison between stock and the competitor, it's not a good comparison. Got to be Stelco for Cliffs and Stelco for Cliffs going forward. And the Stelco for Cliffs in 2025 was not as good as we envisioned basically because domestic Canadian prices went down due to the avalanche of imports into Canada. That has been put on hold. That has changed, and we will have a completely different 2026 because of that.

    雖然這次搬遷的規模比我們希望他們進行的搬遷要小得多,但這足以讓我們看到加拿大國內市場完全不同的動態。所以,將股票與競爭對手比較,並不是一個好的比較。克里夫斯公司必須一直由斯特爾科公司經營,以後也必須由斯特爾科公司經營。2025 年 Cliffs 的 Stelco 表現不如預期,主要是因為加拿大國內價格因大量進口商品湧入而下降。此事已被擱置。情況已經改變,因此,2026 年將會截然不同。

  • Alex Hacking - Analyst

    Alex Hacking - Analyst

  • I guess just following up, how much better can 2026 look? Like on the price side, where do you think Canadian prices should be with a new tariff policy versus where they are today? I don't know if you can comment on that at all.

    我想問的是,2026 年還能有多好?就價格方面而言,您認為在新關稅政策下,加拿大物價該如何變動?我不知道你是否可以對此發表評論。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Like Celso said, we don't break down Stelco results into our results. So we do not disclose that. But it's easy to see that based on how bad 2025 was and used the competitors as they referenced for that specific point, you'll see that there will be night and day. They will be a contributor and that will be a significant contributor to Cliff's results.

    是的。正如塞爾索所說,我們不會將Stelco的業績納入我們的業績分析。所以我們不予公開。但很容易看出,根據 2025 年的糟糕情況,以及競爭對手在那個特定時刻所引用的數據,你會發現兩者之間將有天壤之別。他們會做出貢獻,而且這將對克里夫的成績產生重大影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Albert Realini, Jefferies.

    傑富瑞集團的阿爾伯特·雷亞利尼。

  • Albert Realini - Analyst

    Albert Realini - Analyst

  • So just, Celso, I think you kind of alluded to it a bit, but the $425 million in total proceeds that are potentially under contract closure and agreement. I think you had said that doesn't include some of the larger skill assets. And I think you had mentioned that those would be on hold until anything with POSCO were to be finalized.

    所以,塞爾索,我想你剛才也稍微提到了,但根據合約的最終敲定和協議,總收益可能達到 4.25 億美元。我想你之前說過,這不包括一些更重要的技能資產。我想你之前也提到過,在與浦項鋼鐵的任何事宜最終敲定之前,這些計劃都會被擱置。

  • So I guess what I'm asking is that total amount of proceeds from the asset sales could be a lot higher, and then timing would be until anything with POSCO would be finalized. Is that my understanding correct?

    所以我想問的是,資產出售所得的總金額可能會高得多,而時間則取決於與浦項鋼鐵的任何事宜最終敲定。我的理解正確嗎?

  • Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Celso Goncalves - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So Albert, so the $425 million, that's the totality of all of kind of our idle plants that we're marketing. And there's interest across the board for all of them. We've received $60 million so far, but we're in discussions to sell the rest, and that would add up to the $425 million. Beyond that, we have the larger assets that we could sell that there's been some interest around specifically Toledo HBI and FPT assets. So that would be in addition to the $425 million.

    是的。所以艾伯特,4.25億美元,就是我們正在出售的所有閒置工廠的總價值。各界人士對它們都表現出了濃厚的興趣。到目前為止,我們已經收到了 6000 萬美元,但我們正在討論出售剩餘部分,這將使總金額達到 4.25 億美元。除此之外,我們還有一些可以出售的大型資產,特別是 Toledo HBI 和 FPT 的資產,已經引起了一些關注。所以這筆錢是在4.25億美元之外的。

  • Now we put these larger asset sales on hold, given POSCO's interest in our business. They're looking across our entire footprint. So we don't want to jeopardize the POSCO opportunity, which is much bigger. But for whatever reason, if the POSCO opportunity were to not materialize, we could pick up where we left off on the larger asset sales. And we've had some meaningful interest in those as well. So that would be in addition to the $425 million, you're correct.

    鑑於浦項鋼鐵公司對我們業務的興趣,我們現在暫停了這些較大的資產出售計畫。他們正在審視我們整個業務範圍。所以我們不想錯失浦項製鐵這個更大的機會。但無論出於何種原因,如果 POSCO 的機會未能實現,我們可以繼續進行更大的資產出售。我們也對這些項目表現出了濃厚的興趣。所以這筆錢是額外加上那4.25億美元的,你說得對。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Albert, just a slight correction. Celso said in the discussion. Some of the discussions are already signed contracts. So we a little beyond the just discussions. We have contracts in place and it's a matter of going between a binding contract and a sale agreement at closing. So it's -- these transactions are real. It's a matter of time for closing. So like we have done so far, we do want that already closed.

    艾伯特,稍作更正。塞爾索在討論中說道。部分洽談內容已轉化為已簽署的合約。所以我們之間的討論已經超越了單純的討論。我們已經簽訂了合同,現在的問題在於,最終是簽訂一份具有約束力的合同,還是在交易完成時簽署一份正式的銷售協議。所以,這些交易都是真的。成交只是時間問題。所以就像我們之前所做的那樣,我們希望這件事已經結束了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We reach end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給各位,請大家補充或作總結發言。

  • Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Lourenco Goncalves - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you very much, and you guys enjoy 2026 as much as Cleveland-Cliffs will. I appreciate your interest in our company. Thanks a lot. Bye now.

    非常感謝,祝福你們和克里夫蘭-克利夫斯隊一樣享受2026年的美好時光。感謝您對我們公司的關注。多謝。再見了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了,祝您有美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。