Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Darryl, and I am your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Cleveland-Cliffs' third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安。我叫 Darryl，今天我是你們的會議主持人。歡迎大家參加克里夫蘭-克利夫斯 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

The company reminds you that certain comments made on today's call will include predictive statements that are intended to be made as forward-looking within the Safe Harbor protections of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

該公司提醒您，今天電話會議上發表的某些評論將包括預測性陳述，這些陳述旨在根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》的安全港保護規定作為前瞻性陳述。

Although the company believes that its forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially. Important factors that could cause results to differ materially are set forth in reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q and the news releases filed with the SEC, which are available on the company's website.

儘管公司認為其前瞻性陳述是基於合理的假設，但此類陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。可能導致結果出現重大差異的重要因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表報告以及新聞稿中列出，可在公司網站上查閱。

Today's conference call is also available and being broadcast at clevelandcliffs.com. At the conclusion of the call, it will be archived on the website and available for replay. The company will also discuss results, excluding certain special items. Reconciliation for Regulation G purposes can be found in the earnings release, which was published yesterday.

今天的電話會議也可以在 clevelandcliffs.com 上收聽和播出。通話結束後，內容將存檔在網站上並可供重播。該公司還將討論不包括某些特殊項目的業績。在昨天發布的收益報告中可以找到有關 G 規則目的的對帳表。

At this time, I would like to introduce Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer.

現在，我想介紹董事長、總裁兼執行長 Lourenco Goncalves。

Thank you, Darryl. Good morning, and happy election day to the Americans listening in on the call today. Throughout my 10 years with Cliffs, we have worked very consistently to position the company to benefit no matter what candidate or political party is in power. This year is no different. At this point, it's clear to us that with either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as President of the United States, our executive branch will work to improve conditions and support a domestic steel industry owned and operated by American producers.

謝謝你，達裡爾。早安，祝今天收聽電話會議的美國人民選舉快樂。在我任職於 Cliffs 的 10 年期間，我們始終如一地致力於讓公司受益，無論哪個候選人或政黨掌權。今年也不例外。到目前為止，我們很清楚，無論是唐納德·川普還是卡瑪拉·哈里斯擔任美國總統，我們的行政部門都會努力改善條件，支持由美國生產商擁有和經營的國內鋼鐵業。

American steel companies are way ahead of all others in the entire world, both in steelmaking technology and access to capital markets. We have a domestic market for steel that's the envy of other nations, and we have the American people willing to work for us and benefit from these favorable conditions. Steel touch several important areas: national security, infrastructure, manufacturing, supply chains, middle-class union and non-union jobs, just to name a few.

美國鋼鐵企業無論在煉鋼技術或資本市場進入方面都遠遠領先全球其他所有鋼鐵企業。我們的國內鋼鐵市場令其他國家羨慕不已，美國人民也願意為我們工作並從這些有利條件中受益。鋼鐵涉及幾個重要領域：國家安全、基礎設施、製造業、供應鏈、中產階級工會和非工會工作，等等。

It's exciting that both presidential candidates are concerned about all these areas and also that both have similar pro-steel views. We have had a thorough dialogue with surrogates from each campaign, and we definitely believe that critical points we have made about our American steel industry have been heard, accepted, and understood.

令人興奮的是，兩位總統候選人都關注所有這些領域，並且都持有相似的支持鋼鐵的觀點。我們與各競選團隊的代理人進行了徹底的對話，我們堅信，我們對美國鋼鐵業提出的關鍵觀點已經被聽到、接受和理解。

Our number-one topic of conversation with these officials is trade. While steel imports are a fact of life in the United States, not all imports are created equal. A country like Canada, for example, follows the rules and does things the right way, and this is a large part of the rationale behind Cleveland-Cliffs acquiring Stelco, the steel company of Canada. We received all approvals within the time frame we expected we would and closed the deal in three months. That's how M&A is done. When we have two honest counterparties working collaboratively, the deal closed, bankers and lawyers get paid, and shareholders are rewarded.

我們與這些官員談話的首要話題是貿易。儘管鋼鐵進口是美國的現實，但並非所有進口都是一樣的。例如，加拿大這樣的國家遵守規則並以正確的方式做事，這是克利夫蘭克利夫斯收購加拿大鋼鐵公司 Stelco 的主要原因。我們在預期的時間內獲得了所有批准，並在三個月內完成了交易。這就是併購的方式。當我們有兩個誠實的交易對手共同合作時，交易完成，銀行家和律師獲得報酬，股東獲得回報。

In our release yesterday evening, we provided Stelco's financial results. While operating on a smaller scale, Stelco provides amazing resilience in a not-so-good steel market as well as substantial upside in a strong market, all driven by the best-in-class cost structure and emphasis on spot sales versus the primarily contractual book of business that stand-alone Cliffs relies upon.

在昨天晚上的發布中，我們提供了 Stelco 的財務結果。儘管規模較小，Stelco 在鋼鐵市場表現不佳的情況下仍表現出驚人的韌性，在強勁的市場中也具有巨大的上漲空間，這一切都得益於其一流的成本結構以及對現貨銷售而非主要合約銷售的重視獨立的 Cliffs 所依賴的業務帳簿。

Based on these current market conditions, the acquisition of Stelco will allow us to average up the overall EBITDA margin of Cleveland-Cliffs. The stand-alone Cliffs is primarily a company centered towards serving the automotive industry. Our specialized equipment capabilities, our material flows, and our robust customer and technical service efforts are distinct from any other steelmaker.

根據目前的市場狀況，收購 Stelco 將使我們能夠平均提高 Cleveland-Cliffs 的整體 EBITDA 利潤率。獨立的 Cliffs 主要是以服務汽車產業為中心的公司。我們的專業設備能力、我們的材料流以及我們強大的客戶和技術服務努力與其他任何鋼鐵製造商都不同。

When automotive is humming, our footprint hums nicely along with that. Conversely, in an environment like we had in Q3, where the automotive industry slowed down well below expectations, the fixed costs associated to our configuration become more difficult to overcome. With Stelco as part of our company, our overall cost structure is significantly improved, making us better suited to serve the non-automotive markets.

當汽車發出嗡嗡聲時，我們的足跡也隨之嗡嗡作響。相反，在第三季這樣的環境下，汽車產業的成長放緩遠低於預期，與我們的配置相關的固定成本變得更難克服。隨著Stelco的加入，我們的整體成本結構得到了顯著改善，使我們更適合服務非汽車市場。

As a supplier to primarily non-automotive end users and service centers, Stelco runs a much lower fixed cost and nimble operation. They are geared to thrive selling to these end markets at mid-cycle, peak, and trough spot pricing levels because of their cost advantages. These advantages are well documented, currency, iron ore cost, plant layout, healthcare and power costs.

作為主要針對非汽車終端用戶和服務中心的供應商，Stelco 的固定成本較低且營運靈活。由於具有成本優勢，他們準備以中期、高峰和低谷的現貨價格水準向這些終端市場銷售產品。這些優勢都有據可查，包括貨幣、鐵礦石成本、工廠佈局、醫療保健和電力成本。

With these advantages, Lake Erie Works became the benchmark in low cost of our new operating footprint from day one. Our Lake Erie cost structure for hot-rolled is lower than anyone else's in North America, EAF mini mills included, and the numbers are unquestionable. Unlike the acquisitions of AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA, which were either underperforming or underinvested when we acquired them, Stelco is both well invested and a standout performer in the industry.

憑藉這些優勢，伊利湖工程從第一天起就成為我們新營運足跡低成本的標竿。我們的伊利湖熱軋成本結構比北美任何其他公司（包括電弧爐小型鋼廠）都要低，而且這些數字是毋庸置疑的。與我們收購時表現不佳或投資不足的 AK Steel 和 ArcelorMittal USA 不同，Stelco 投資充足，且在業界表現優異。

Based on our experience from the previous acquisitions mentioned above, we are convinced that we have the opportunity to generate $120 million of cost synergies within the first year. Stelco will keep its name, structure, and most of its leadership, and the Canadian flag will continue to fly proudly at each operational facility.

根據上述收購的經驗，我們確信有機會在第一年產生 1.2 億美元的成本綜效。Stelco 將保留其名稱、結構和大部分領導層，加拿大國旗將繼續在每個營運設施上自豪地飄揚。

I will now kick it to Celso for his remarks.

我現在將問題交給塞爾索，請他發表評論。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Our Q3 results were impacted by weaker steel demand and pricing throughout the quarter, which were partially offset by a great cost performance by our team. These factors drove an adjusted EBITDA of $124 million on 3.8 million tonnes of shipments during the third quarter. North American automotive build rates in Q3 were the lowest since the depths of the semiconductor shortage a few years ago, with only 3.75 million units built during the quarter.

謝謝大家，早安。我們的第三季業績受到整個季度鋼鐵需求和價格疲軟的影響，但我們團隊出色的成本表現部分抵消了這一影響。這些因素推動第三季調整後 EBITDA 達到 1.24 億美元，出貨量為 380 萬噸。北美汽車第三季生產力創下幾年前半導體短缺以來的最低水平，當季產量僅 375 萬輛。

The latest expectation for automotive builds this year is around 15.5 million units, which is about 1 million units less than what was expected at this time last year. With our position as a large automotive supplier, this drove our shipments, average selling prices, and unit margins down quarter over quarter. And compounding this, our non-automotive business also saw continued weakness in demand and pricing, both in flat-rolled and plate.

今年汽車產量的最新預期約為 1550 萬輛，比去年同期的預期少約 100 萬輛。由於我們作為大型汽車供應商的地位，這導致我們的出貨量、平均銷售價格和單位利潤率較上季下降。除此之外，我們的非汽車業務也經歷了平板軋材和中厚板需求和價格的持續疲軟。

Overall, average selling price fell $80 per tonne and shipments fell 150,000 tonnes compared to the prior quarter. Given the ongoing demand weakness, we temporarily idled one of our blast furnaces in Cleveland to better align production with our order book, as both automotive and service center customers reduced their order activity during the third quarter. The idle temporarily takes offline about 1.5 million net tonnes of annual capacity, and we don't plan to resume operations until market conditions improve.

總體而言，平均售價與上一季相比每噸下跌 80 美元，出貨量下跌 15 萬噸。鑑於持續的需求疲軟，我們暫時閒置了位於克利夫蘭的一座高爐，以更好地使生產與訂單保持一致，因為汽車和服務中心客戶在第三季度都減少了訂單活動。這次停產暫時導致年淨產能約150萬噸，而且我們不打算恢復運營，直到市場狀況好轉為止。

From a cost standpoint, we reduced unit costs by over $40 per tonne during the quarter, exceeding our previous guide on both an absolute and mix adjusted basis. This came ahead of expectations despite running our mills at reduced operating rates. The belt tightening at the operational level was reflected in both capital spending and SG&A costs as well.

從成本角度來看，本季我們把單位成本降低了 40 多美元/噸，無論是絕對成本還是混合調整成本，都超過了我們先前的指導價格。儘管我們的工廠降低了開工率，但這仍然超出了預期。營運層面的緊縮政策也反映在資本支出及銷售、一般及行政開支（SG&A）成本。

Our quarterly SG&A of $112 million and capital spending of $151 million remained substantially below our averages for the past four years. Along these same lines, we are taking a similarly lean approach to our capital expenditures budget for next year. We have guided to a capital spend of $600 million for 2025 on an ex-Stelco basis, which would be our lowest stand-alone CapEx since our transformation in 2020. This is a function of reduced needs across the footprint and updated spend estimates on our three strategic growth projects at Middletown, Butler and Weirton.

我們每季的銷售、一般及行政支出為 1.12 億美元，資本支出為 1.51 億美元，遠低於過去四年的平均水準。本著同樣的思路，我們對明年的資本支出預算也採取了同樣精簡的方針。我們預計 2025 年的資本支出將達到 6 億美元（不含 Stelco），這將是我們自 2020 年轉型以來最低的獨立資本支出。這是由於整個足跡的需求減少以及位於米德爾敦、巴特勒和韋爾頓的三個策略性成長項目的支出估算更新所致。

In 2025, we also see the favorable impact of improved coal supply contracts to the tune of a $70 million cost improvement year over year. That said, our most critical recent accomplishments on the finance front were completing the necessary steps to close the Stelco acquisition. As you may recall, we originally intended to fund the acquisition with a combination of financing instruments, including a term loan, secured and unsecured high-yield notes, and our ABL.

到 2025 年，我們也將看到煤炭供應合約改善帶來的有利影響，成本年比改善幅度將達到 7,000 萬美元。儘管如此，我們最近在財務方面最關鍵的成就是完成了完成 Stelco 收購的必要步驟。您可能還記得，我們​​最初打算透過多種融資工具為收購提供資金，包括定期貸款、有擔保和無擔保高收益票據以及我們的資產負債表 (ABL)。

But as we began to market the deal to investors, we noticed strong receptivity to the story and grew conviction we could raise what we needed without tapping either the secured bonds or the term loan markets. The resulting financing structure leaves us in an ideal and flexible position to weather any economic downturn and to delever quickly when cash flow starts to heat up.

但當我們開始向投資者推銷這筆交易時，我們注意到投資者對這個故事的接受度很高，並且我們越來越相信，我們可以在不利用擔保債券或定期貸款市場的情況下籌集到我們所需的資金。由此產生的融資結構使我們處於理想而靈活的地位，能夠抵禦任何經濟衰退，並在現金流開始升溫時迅速去槓桿。

Now that we have Stelco closed, we'll be reprioritizing debt repayment over share repurchases with future cash flow generation. Looking ahead, the Stelco acquisitions assets to the footprint is exactly what we need at this time, a nimble operation that thrives even in down-markets. The North American flat-rolled market has long been in need of consolidation, and we continue to do our part to make that a reality.

現在我們已經關閉了 Stelco，我們將優先考慮債務償還，而不是股票回購，以產生未來的現金流。展望未來，Stelco 收購資產以滿足其業務需求正是我們此時所需要的，這是一種靈活的運營，即使在低迷的市場中也能蓬勃發展。北美扁平材市場長期以來一直需要整合，我們將繼續盡自己的努力使其成為現實。

The deal is EPS accretive, credit positive, and we maintain ample liquidity to navigate the current cycle. Based on what we're seeing in the marketplace, we expect the tide to turn soon. And regardless of who wins the election today, it's easy to get bullish on the expectations for 2025, and our upside for that is further amplified with the Stelco assets.

該交易可增加每股收益，對信貸產生積極影響，並且我們仍保持充足的流動性以應對當前週期。根據我們在市場上看到的情況，我們預計情況很快就會轉變。無論今天誰贏得大選，我們都很容易對 2025 年的預期保持樂觀，而 Stelco 資產的持有將進一步放大我們的上行潛力。

With that, I'll pass it back to Lourenco.

說完這些，我就將其交還給 Lourenco。

Thank you, Celso. In other news, each one of our three key strategic projects continues to progress well. We have received Phase 1 funding approvals for the Department of Energy for our efficient projects at Middletown and Butler, allowing us to proceed. As for our transformer plant at Weirton, we are pleased to report that we have all of the necessary equipment ordered to begin making transformers in late 2025, early 2026.

謝謝你，塞爾索。另外，我們的三個關鍵策略項目都持續進展順利。我們已獲得能源部對米德爾敦和巴特勒高效項目第一階段的資金批准，使我們能夠繼續進行。至於我們位於威爾頓的變壓器工廠，我們很高興地報告，我們已經訂購了所有必要的設備，將於 2025 年底或 2026 年初開始生產變壓器。

We have secured a joint venture partner who we feel can complement our capabilities, a partner with technical expertise and customer relationships in this space. We will report more news with respect to the joint venture partner in the near term. From the Cliffs side, we are bringing a lot to the table a large and skilled workforce, a plant site with all of the essentials already built and in place, and most importantly, the internal supply of grain-oriented electrical steels from our Butler, Pennsylvania plant.

我們已經找到了一個合資夥伴，我們認為他可以補充我們的能力，他在這個領域擁有技術專長和客戶關係。我們將在近期報道更多有關合資夥伴的消息。從 Cliffs 方面來看，我們為公司帶來了大量技術熟練的勞動力，一個已經建成並具備所有基本設施的工廠，最重要的是，我們 Butler 提供的內部取向電工鋼供應，賓夕法尼亞州工廠。

Our actual third-quarter results were certainly not a reflection of what we think a mid-cycle environment in our industry should be. Demand was the weakest it has been since COVID, and achieving our 4-million-tonne sales target would have forced us to change prices even lower. As we have done historically in similar markets, we acted with discipline and reduced production by idling our blast furnaces.

我們實際的第三季業績絕對不能反映我們所認為的產業中期環境。目前需求處於新冠疫情以來的最低水平，如果要實現 400 萬噸的銷售目標，我們將不得不將價格調得更低。正如我們過去在類似市場中所做的那樣，我們採取了嚴格的行動，透過閒置高爐來減少產量。

Going forward, based on the trend of falling interest rates, election certainty, import economics, and manufacturing onshoring, we are getting more and more comfortable forecasting a rather strong 2025 for both our automotive and non-automotive businesses.

展望未來，基於利率下降、選舉確定性、進口經濟和製造業在岸化的趨勢，我們越來越有信心預測，2025年我們的汽車和非汽車業務都將表現相當強勁。

I'll end my remarks with a note of recognition to our workforce. Our safety metrics in 2024 are the best I have ever seen in my entire career in the steel industry. Specifically for our union partners, we thank you for your support this year. We now have officially added another 1,800 USW members in Canada. Welcome to the team, each one of you.

最後，我想對我們的員工表示感謝。我們 2024 年的安全指標是我在鋼鐵業整個職業生涯中見過最好的。特別是對於我們的工會夥伴，我們感謝你們今年的支持。目前，我們在加拿大正式增加了 1,800 名 USW 會員。歡迎你們每一個人加入我們的團隊。

With that, I will turn to Darryl for Q&A.

接下來，我將請 Darryl 進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）Lucas Pipes、B. Riley Securities。

Thank you very much, operator, and good morning, everyone. Congratulations on the timely close of the Stelco acquisition. Lourenco, given that the deal closed mid-quarter, I wonder if you could maybe speak to Q4 volume, price, and cost expectations? Thank you very much.

非常感謝接線員，大家早安。祝賀Stelco收購案及時完成。洛倫科，鑑於該交易在本季度中期完成，我想知道您是否可以談談第四季度的銷售、價格和成本預期？非常感謝。

Yes, I'll talk on volume and market expectation. Let Celso talk about the cost portion. As far as volume, we believe that our clients, as soon as we have a little more clarity, which should happen in the next few days on the election, customers will start placing orders, and things will start to hit up fast. I am anticipating a very strong Q1. And I believe that we are going to have volumes back to normal by the first half of next year.

是的，我將談論銷售和市場預期。讓 Celso 來談談成本部分。就交易量而言，我們相信，一旦我們對選舉結果有了更清晰的認識（這應該會在未來幾天內發生），我們的客戶就會開始下訂單，然後交易量就會迅速增加。我預計第一季業績將非常強勁。我相信到明年上半年我們的產量將恢復正常。

I also believe that the automotive clients, at least two of the Big Four that decide to go for lower prices, are starting to feel the pain of their decisions and that this business is already coming back to Cliffs. So the automotive side of business should be much better as well because we will have the business that was taken away for absurdly low prices coming back to us. I'll let Celso answer to the cost portion of the question. Thank you.

我還相信，汽車客戶（四大公司中至少有兩家決定降低價格）已經開始感受到他們決策的痛苦，而這項業務已經回到了 Cliffs 手中。因此，汽車業務方面也應該會好得多，因為我們將重新獲得那些以極低價格搶走的業務。我將讓 Celso 回答問題的成本部分。謝謝。

Yes, sure. Hey, Lucas, and thanks for your comments. From an average selling price standpoint, we expect it to be -- Q4 to be similar to Q3 on a stand-alone basis. We'll have a little bit less HRC and a similar level of automotive and not a big impact from the October auto contracts. From a shipment standpoint, our stand-alone shipments will obviously be a little bit lower in Q4, but Stelco will kind of bring us up. So what we lose on a stand-alone basis kind of gets backfilled from what we bring from Stelco. So you can expect similar shipment levels in Q4 relative to Q3.

是的，當然。嘿，盧卡斯，謝謝你的評論。從平均售價的角度來看，我們預計第四季的獨立售價將與第三季相似。我們的熱軋捲數量會稍微少一些，汽車產量水平將保持類似水平，而且不會受到 10 月汽車合約的太大影響。從出貨量的角度來看，我們第四季的獨立出貨量顯然會略低一些，但 Stelco 的出貨量會有所上升。所以，我們單獨損失的部分可以透過從 Stelco 獲得的部分來彌補。因此，您可以預期第四季度的出貨量水準與第三季相似。

And then from a mix standpoint, it will likely be more weighted toward HRC, obviously, from having the Stelco footprint as well. We'll get two months of contribution from Stelco, obviously, given where we closed the deal. And then for other things like working capital, we should see a build of, call it, $50 million to $75 million as inventory could be impacted from the C-6 outage but will be partially offset from a release in receivables. And then from things related to acquisition costs and things like that, it will be pretty minimal in Q4.

然後從混合的角度來看，它可能會更加偏向 HRC，顯然，因為它也擁有 Stelco 的足跡。考慮到我們達成的交易，顯然我們將從 Stelco 獲得兩個月的貢獻。然後對於其他方面，例如營運資金，我們應該看到 5000 萬到 7500 萬美元的增加，因為庫存可能會受到 C-6 停運的影響，但會透過應收帳款的釋放得到部分抵銷。然後從與收購成本等相關的事情來看，第四季的成本將非常低。

Thank you very much for all that detail. Bigger-picture question on the CapEx guidance for 2025, a very meaningful reduction versus prior commentary. So I wondered if you could maybe walk through the changes. And then you're still going ahead with your strategic projects that you outlined could add $600 million of EBITDA. Could you remind us how quickly that EBITDA could flow through and attribute that $600 million to the various projects? Thank you very much for that color.

非常感謝您提供如此詳細的資訊。更大範圍的問題是 2025 年的資本支出指引，與先前的評論相比，這是一個非常有意義的減少。所以我想知道您是否可以介紹一下這些變化。然後您仍在繼續執行您所概述的戰略項目，該項目可以增加 6 億美元的 EBITDA。您能否提醒我們 EBITDA 的流入速度有多快，並將這 6 億美元歸功於各個專案？非常感謝那個顏色。

Yes. Look, Lucas, Lourenco here. We are basically bearing the CapEx needs with what we expect in terms of what will be the next year in terms of our automotive demand. Remember, we spent a lot of money in the last couple of years bringing the equipment, particularly the one that we acquired from ArcelorMittal USA. ArcelorMittal is running the assets to the structure. And we had to really do a lot of catch-up maintenance to bring the equipment back to snuff, and now they are. So we don't need to spend as much as we thought it we would need going forward. Things are in good shape as far as the equipment goes.

是的。看，盧卡斯，這是洛倫索。我們基本上是根據對明年汽車需求的預期來承擔資本支出需求。記住，過去幾年我們花了很多錢引進設備，特別是從安賽樂米塔爾美國公司引進的設備。安賽樂米塔爾 (ArcelorMittal) 正在管理該結構的資產。我們確實需要做大量的補修工作才能使設備恢復到標準狀態，現在它們已經恢復了。因此，我們不需要像預期的那樣花那麼多錢。就設備而言，一切狀況良好。

The other thing is that it's clear that our clients are not transitioning to electric vehicles as fast as they said that they would. Actually, some are really doing a completely 180 on their strategies and going back to ICE some starting hybrids. So we are taking the automotive clients with a grain of salt going forward. And that makes us less eager to be spending money to change things here to upgrade for what they say they would be. So that's what you get when you are price-driven as a client. So we're going to be a lot less aggressive in bringing our equipment to what they expect us to be.

另一件事是，很明顯我們的客戶並沒有像他們所說的那樣快速轉向電動車。實際上，有些人確實對他們的策略進行了 180 度的大轉彎，並重新使用 ICE 來開始一些混合行動。因此，我們對未來的汽車客戶持謹慎態度。這使得我們不太願意花錢改變這裡的一切，以升級到他們所說的程度。這就是當您作為客戶以價格為導向時您所得到的結果。因此，我們在將我們的設備達到他們期望水平時不會那麼積極。

As far as the new plant, Stelco, we believe that we are going to spend between $80 million and $100 million in CapEx as maintenance CapEx. The equipment is in good shape. Like I said in my prepared remarks, different from previous acquisitions, we don't believe to have anything meaningful to do there other than normal course. And so the number is pretty realistic. And with a higher price environment, we expect that the overall impact will be very net positive. And I don't know if Celso has anything else to add to what I just said.

就新工廠 Stelco 而言，我們認為我們將花費 8,000 萬至 1 億美元的資本支出作為維護資本支出。設備狀態良好。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，與以前的收購不同，我們認為除了正常業務之外，沒有什麼有意義的事情可做。所以這個數字是相當現實的。在價格環境較高的情況下，我們預期整體影響將是非常正面的。我不知道塞爾索是否還有什麼要補充的。

Yes, sure. So I mean just to put some numbers to it, the cadence of the capital spend, Lucas, 2024 will end the year, around, call it, [$625 million] stand-alone. And then as we look forward to next year, we've reduced the sustaining level down to $500 million. And then when you add in the strategic investments, the Middletown spend for 2025 is about $50 million. That's the Cliffs portion, but you have an offset in terms of other CapEx savings in Middletown about the same level, so they net out.

是的，當然。所以我的意思是，只是舉幾個數字，資本支出的節奏，盧卡斯，2024 年將結束，大約，稱之為 [6.25 億美元] 獨立。展望明年，我們將維持水準降低至 5 億美元。然後，當你加入策略性投資時，米德爾頓 2025 年的支出約為 5,000 萬美元。這是 Cliffs 的部分，但米德爾敦的其他資本支出節省方面也存在大約相同水平的抵消，因此它們是淨額。

And then Weirton -- the Cliffs portion for Weirton is about $30 million. And the Butler spend, the Cliffs portion is about $35 million. So all in for next year before Stelco is around $565 million, and then you add another, call it, $100 million and $110 million for Stelco, brings you to about $675 million total for 2025.

然後是威爾頓——克利夫斯為威爾頓所佔的份額約為 3,000 萬美元。而 Butler 的支出中，Cliffs 的部分約 3,500 萬美元。因此，明年 Stelco 的總收入約為 5.65 億美元，然後再加上 Stelco 的 1 億美元和 1.1 億美元，到 2025 年，總收入將達到約 6.75 億美元。

Thank you very much. And on the timing of the positive contributions from the growth projects?

非常感謝。成長項目帶來正面貢獻的時間是怎樣的？

I'm sorry, say it one more time, Lucas. Time of contribution of what?

對不起，再說一次，盧卡斯。貢獻時間什麼？

In terms of Middletown, Weirton, and Butler and the EBITDA contribution from these growth projects, could you speak to --

關於米德爾敦、韋爾頓和巴特勒以及這些成長項目的 EBITDA 貢獻，您能否談談--

Yes, Middletown is a long-term project. Middletown, we will be operational by 2027. So it takes a long time to get there. It's a long, long project. Butler will be a little earlier, but probably still late '26 early '27. And Weirton, we are working hard to start up our plant in the fourth quarter of 2026 -- I'm sorry, fourth quarter of 2025, but the timeframe -- the official time frame that we have right now is still on first quarter of 2026.

是的，米德爾頓是一個長期計畫。米德爾敦，我們將於 2027 年投入營運。所以到達那裡需要很長時間。這是一個長期的項目。巴特勒會早一點，但可能還是 26 年末到 27 年初。韋爾頓，我們正在努力在 2026 年第四季度啟動我們的工廠——抱歉，是 2025 年第四季度，但時間表——我們目前的官方時間表仍然是 2026 年第一季。

So these are all big projects, and we need to receive equipment that has long lead time, things like that. But assuming everything goes well, Weirton should be operational by the end of the next year, but we're still working with the late 2025, early 2026 timeframe.

所以這些都是大項目，我們需要接收交付週期較長的設備，諸如此類。但如果一切進展順利，韋爾頓應該會在明年年底投入運營，但我們仍在努力實現 2025 年底或 2026 年初的時間表。

Gentlemen, I appreciate all the detail. I wish you and the team all the best of luck.

先生們，我感謝你們提供的所有細節。我祝您和團隊一切好運。

Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

太感謝了。非常感謝。

Thanks, Lucas.

謝謝，盧卡斯。

Lawson Winder, Bank of America.

美國銀行的勞森·溫德（Lawson Winder）。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, Lourenco and Celso, nice to hear from you both. Celso, maybe for you, just on costs heading into Q4, pretty remarkable cost savings of $40 per tonne in Q3. Is something of that magnitude potentially achievable heading into Q4?

謝謝您，接線生。早安，Lourenco 和 Celso，很高興收到你們的來信。Celso，也許對您來說，僅就第四季度的成本而言，第三季每噸 40 美元的成本節省相當可觀。進入第四季度，是否有可能實現如此規模的目標？

Yes, thank you for the comments, Lawson. Yes, we've -- like I said, we've been tightening the belt a lot on costs. So the quarter-over-quarter performance is remarkable. I'm very proud of the team here of what we accomplished from a cost standpoint. We were down $40 a tonne versus our guide of $30, and that's really difficult to do. So that should be commended. And that comes from improved operational efficiencies and just continuing to be disciplined.

是的，謝謝你的評論，勞森。是的，正如我所說，我們一直在嚴格控製成本。因此，季度環比表現非常出色。從成本角度來看，我為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪。與我們的指導價格 30 美元/噸相比，我們下降了 40 美元/噸，這真的很難做到。因此這值得讚揚。這是透過提高營運效率和持續保持紀律來實現的。

These Q3 costs are the lowest level since, I think, 2021. So we're going to continue to bring costs down. Stelco is obviously going to be a big benefit -- is going to benefit us a lot on the cost side, but we also have the Cleveland 6 idle, which bring costs up. So I wouldn't expect to see the same magnitude of cost reduction going into Q4, but we'll continue to bring costs down as you guys have seen.

我認為，第三季的成本是自 2021 年以來的最低水準。因此我們將繼續降低成本。Stelco 顯然將帶來巨大利益——將在成本方面為我們帶來很大好處，但我們也有克利夫蘭 6 號機組閒置，這會增加成本。因此，我預計第四季的成本削減幅度不會有太大變化，但正如大家所見，我們會繼續降低成本。

Okay. That would be great and thank you for your comments on the auto contracts. Can I maybe just follow up on that and ask a follow-up question as to how the current contracting cycle, so the October 1 contracts, compared to the prior year's contract in terms of pricing? Are we looking at fairly stable pricing there?

好的。那太好了，謝謝你對汽車合約的評論。我是否可以跟進這個問題，並問一個後續問題，即當前的簽約週期，即 10 月 1 日的簽約，與去年的簽約相比，在定價方面如何？我們看到那裡的價格是否相當穩定？

Yes. Look, the October clients were part of the ones that did not move much in terms of tonnage. One of them didn't move at all. So we only increased with new models, so what's normal course. But make no mistake, I had to be a lot more flexible in taking lower prices, not to dump the prices that the competition was throwing in the marketplace, fermented by foreign-owned companies operating here inside the borders of the United States.

是的。你看，十月的客戶是那些在噸位方面變動不大的客戶之一。其中一個人根本就一動也不動。因此，我們僅增加了新車型，這是正常現象。但請不要誤會，我必須更加靈活地接受較低的價格，而不是拋棄競爭對手在市場上製定的價格，而這些價格是由在美國境內運營的外資公司製造的。

We have one, and we almost had a second that we had to block. I believe we did; to be seen, let's see what's going to happen. But we can't allow foreigners to dump from the inside. They are very good at dumping from the outside. But dumping from the inside is a new development that I learned in 2024 but we acted upon.

我們有一個，而且我們幾乎還有第二個必須阻止的。我相信我們做到了；讓我們看看會發生什麼。但我們不能允許外國人從內部傾銷。他們非常擅長從外部傾倒。但從內部傾倒是一個新的發展，是我在 2024 年學到的，但我們採取了行動。

So our prices of the contracts for the next year are lower, but the tonnage is preserved, except for two of the clients that really elected to go to lower prices. So coincidentally, these are the two car manufacturers that are really underperforming the competition. So there's a lot of work to be done going into next year. We are good with prices. We acquired Stelco. We have a big, big, big barrier now to the situation that we had to suffer through in Q3, and let's see 2025.

因此，我們明年的合約價格會降低，但噸位會保持不變，只有兩個客戶確實選擇降低價格。巧合的是，這兩家汽車製造商的表現確實不如競爭對手。所以明年還有很多工作要做。我們的價格很合理。我們收購了Stelco。我們現在面臨著與第三季所遭遇的情況相差甚遠的障礙，讓我們拭目以待 2025 年吧。

All right. Thanks very much for your comments, Lourenco. Thank you both for your responses

好的。非常感謝您的評論，Lourenco。感謝你們的回复

Thank you, Lawson.

謝謝你，勞森。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

Yes. Good morning, gentlemen, and congratulations on closing Stelco. Just to make sure then on prices quarter on quarter, Celso, given the mix with higher -- spot higher HRC in the fourth quarter with Stelco, do you expect then prices quarter on quarter to be down at least slightly?

是的。先生們，早安，祝賀 Stelco 倒閉。只是為了確保價格與上一季相比有所下降，Celso，考慮到第四季度 Stelco 熱軋捲現貨價格上漲，您是否預計價格與上一季相比會至少略有下降？

Yes, probably slightly, just given all the dynamics that we have going on at the moment, Carlos.

是的，可能有點，只是考慮到我們目前正在進行的所有動態，卡洛斯。

Right, makes sense. And then, Lourenco, if I understood correctly, the 2025 prices -- auto prices would probably decline a little bit versus what you guys will average in 2024. Also on top of this, you have other industries on fixed annual prices. Can you talk about how those are evolving for 2025?

對，有道理。然後，Lourenco，如果我理解正確的話，2025 年的汽車價格可能會比 2024 年的平均價格略有下降。除此之外，其他行業也實施固定年價。您能談談這些在 2025 年將如何發展嗎？

Yes. Look, you're correct about the automotive contracts. So far, we agreed with slightly lower prices in our renewals. Nothing really to change meaningfully from a dollars-per-tonne standpoint. It's all -- now it's all about the tonnes. Let's see how many cars the car manufacturers will project. They underperformed themselves by a lot in 2024.

是的。瞧，你對汽車合約的看法是正確的。到目前為止，我們同意續約時價格略低一些。從每噸美元計算，並沒有什麼實質的改變。現在一切都與噸位有關。讓我們看看汽車製造商將計劃生產多少輛汽車。2024 年他們的表現遠遠落後於自己。

And we've been the most automotive-driven supplier, and I insist with that, not being in the business of dumping from the inside the domestic market -- into the domestic market. We suffered more than anyone else in Q3. That's a fact. For the other contracts, it's more of the same. It's CRU minus a number, low single-digit number. And let's see where CRU will go. Without imports, I believe that price will go up. What do you think, Carlos?

我們一直是汽車產業最主要的供應商，我堅持這一點，我們不從事從國內市場內部向國內市場傾銷的業務。我們在第三季遭受的損失比其他任何人都要大。這是事實。對於其他合約來說，情況也大致相同。它是 CRU 減去一個數字，低個位數。讓我們看看 CRU 將會走向何方。如果沒有進口，我相信價格就會上漲。卡洛斯，您覺得怎麼樣？

Yes. Yes, that's for sure. [Without -- less supply], prices tend to be stronger. Now on the cost side, I wanted to just explore the $70 million lower cost overall next year because of lower coal contracts. Are you expecting anything else on the coal side or that is it for 2025? And what else on cost? Any big initiatives that maybe you can highlight and what the expectation will be in terms of cost reduction for next year?

是的。是的，這是肯定的。 [沒有－供應減少]，價格往往會走強。現在談到成本方面，我想探討由於煤炭合約減少，明年整體成本將降低 7,000 萬美元。您對煤炭方面還有其他期望嗎？還有什麼費用？您能強調一下有什麼重大舉措嗎？

That's a big component that we will have for next year. We found a very significant spare capacity on cokemaking in Canada in our new footprint at Stelco. And with that, we definitely will be buying less outside the company, so affecting our costs very significantly in terms of cutting costs.

這是我們明年的一個重要組成部分。我們在 Stelco 的新工廠中發現，加拿大的焦炭生產具有非常大的閒置產能。這樣一來，我們肯定會減少從公司外部購買的商品，從而在削減成本方面對我們的成本產生很大影響。

We haven't quantified exactly how much that will be, but it will be a number that will be significant going forward. The impact will be more in 2026 because we need to go through the tail of the existing contracts. But in the next negotiation, we are going to be negotiating a lot less tonnes with the outside. Anything else, Celso?

我們還沒有量化這個數字到底是多少，但這個數字對未來來說將意義重大。2026 年的影響會更大，因為我們需要完成現有合約的尾部。但在下一次談判中，我們將與外界就減少產量進行談判。還有什麼嗎，塞爾索？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Yes. No, maybe just to round that out, Carlos, if you allow me, on both the average selling prices and costs, right? Stelco will bring an impact on both sides, right? The ASPs will be impacted here from Q3 to Q4 just given their less-rich mix and spot exposure. But this will also come with a cost benefit. And then as we think about costs going into 2025, the reduction in coal cost that you mentioned are very meaningful. And then there are other levers or other drivers, I should say, such as scrap, which will offset the increases that we'll see in things like labor and alloys and other costs. So you got to think of it altogether.

是的。不，也許只是為了解決這個問題，卡洛斯，如果你允許的話，我先看一下平均銷售價格和成本，對嗎？Stelco 會對雙方帶來影響，對嗎？由於產品組合較不豐富且現貨曝光度較低，ASP 從第三季到第四季都會受到影響。但這也會帶來成本效益。然後，當我們考慮2025年的成本時，您提到的煤炭成本的降低非常有意義。然後我應該說還有其他槓桿或其他驅動因素，例如廢料，它將抵消我們在勞動力、合金和其他成本方面看到的成長。所以你必須全面考慮。

Thanks for the color, Celso. Thank you, Lourenco.

謝謝你的顏色，Celso。謝謝你，Lourenco。

Thanks, Carlos.

謝謝，卡洛斯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

Yes, hi. Good morning, Lourenco and Celso. Thanks for all the color. I wanted to come back to the market environment. You touched on weak demand. You talked about weak auto demand. I guess, were you seeing any other pockets of weakness, especially heading into the election, delays going on, or things that could unlock that you expect? I'm just trying to get a sense through also where customer inventories are just to get a sense of when this snapback could occur.

是的，你好。早安，Lourenco 和 Celso。感謝所有的色彩。我想回到市場環境。您提到了需求疲軟。您談到了汽車需求疲軟。我想，您是否看到了其他一些弱點，尤其是在選舉前夕、出現拖延或出現您預期的可能情況？我只是想了解客戶庫存在哪裡，以便了解這種反彈何時會發生。

Yes. Bill, the weakness in the demand is actually a lot more driven by high interest rates. It's very interesting to see day after day after day the Fed officials going -- giving speeches and talking about how great things are and how fixated they are that the economy is doing well. And all things are great. And then they go to with 25 basis points. They continue to keep interest rates up.

是的。比爾，需求疲軟實際上更多是由高利率造成的。看到聯準會官員日復一日地發表演講，談論事情有多麼美好，以及他們多麼執著於經濟的良好表現，這很有趣。一切都很美好。然後他們以 25 個基點上升。他們繼續維持高利率。

Let me tell what happens in real life. In real life, a consumer that has, let's call it, a Suburban that's five years old, and he wants to replace with a new Suburban. He goes to the dealer, and the price tag is higher, not because of steel, because in five years, the steel did not change, but the car prices doubled in five years. So that's number one. And number two, almost nobody really pays the price tag cash, they finance.

讓我講一下現實生活中發生的事情。在現實生活中，一位消費者擁有一輛使用了五年的 Suburban，他想換一輛新的 Suburban。他去經銷商那裡，價格更高，不是因為鋼材，因為五年內鋼材沒有變化，但汽車價格在五年內翻了一番。這是第一點。第二，幾乎沒有人真正支付他們所籌措的現金。

So he's going from a payment plan that has 1.5%, 2% interest rates to a payment plan that has a 7.5%, 8% interest rate. And then the dealer tells him, okay, you can -- are you sure you don't want to increase your payment plan? You can -- I can give you this Equinox here. And so instead of the Suburban -- we have a brand-new Equinox. And the guy says, thank you very much. I'll keep my car.

因此，他將還款計劃從利率為 1.5%、2% 的還款計劃轉變為利率為 7.5%、8% 的還款計劃。然後經銷商告訴他，好的，你可以——你確定不想增加你的付款計劃嗎？你可以——我可以在這裡給你這個春分。因此，我們不再推出 Suburban，而是推出了一款全新的 Equinox。然後那人說，非常感謝。我會保留我的車。

And that's how cars don't move at the deal. It's not an EV against ICE or all this beautiful conversation. It's all about money. It's all about interest rates. And people are employed because companies are afraid to let people go because we went through hell to hire people recently. But the situation is a lot more complicated than it looks like on television.

這就是汽車在交易中無法移動的原因。這不是一場針對 ICE 的 EV 或所有這些美好的對話。一切都是為了錢。一切都與利率有關。人們之所以能繼續就業，是因為公司不敢解僱員工，因為我們最近在招募人員方面經歷了磨難。但情況比電視上看到的要複雜得多。

Guess what, interest rates need to come down. What I explained for automotive also works for houses. People don't sell their house because they have low-interest rate mortgages. And if they try to sell, nobody will buy the house. And if they try to buy, they will be confronted with very high interest rates mortgage. So I'll give a minute for people in the call to think about what I'm saying and think about your own situation.

你猜怎麼著，利率需要下降。我對汽車的解釋也適用於房屋。人們不會因為擁有低利率抵押貸款而出售房屋。如果他們試圖出售，沒有人會買這棟房子。而如果他們試圖買房，他們將面臨非常高的房貸利率。因此，我會給通話中的人們一點時間思考我所說的話，並思考一下你們自己的情況。

You would like to go to a higher -- a better house, but you know what, my mortgage is good. If I go into this, I'm not sure I'm going to sell my house, and I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to afford the new mortgage. That's what interest -- high interest rates do for the company -- for the country just because people want the 2% target to be achieved. We are in good shape. It's time to bring interest rates down, and it's time to get consumers going again. Once this is done, the weakness of the market goes away very quickly.

你想住進更高檔、更好的房子，但你知道嗎，我的房貸還不錯。如果我開始這樣做，我不確定我是否會賣掉我的房子，而且我不確定我是否有能力負擔新的抵押貸款。這就是高利率對公司、對國家造成的影響，因為人們希望達到 2% 的目標。我們的情況很好。現在是降低利率的時候了，現在是讓消費者重新活躍的時候了。一旦做到這一點，市場的疲軟就會很快消失。

Yes, thanks for that color. I drive a 10-year-old car for those reasons. But my next question is actually on infrastructure. We brought this up in the past, and it feels like the infrastructure-related projects still seem to be -- continue to be delayed. But one would think this may not be as interest rate sensitive. Are you seeing any signs there? Maybe more broadly, can you speak to what you're seeing in the plate market?

是的，謝謝你的顏色。基於這些原因，我駕駛一輛十年車齡的汽車。但我的下一個問題實際上是關於基礎設施的。我們過去曾提出過這個問題，感覺與基礎設施相關的項目似乎仍被推遲。但有人會認為這可能對利率不那麼敏感。你看到那裡有什麼跡象嗎？也許更廣泛地說，您能談談您對板材市場的看法嗎？

The infrastructure projects, they have two problems. One is red tape, particularly between the bickering on what's federal and what's local. And the second one is the inability to finance stakes, so -- because interest rates are high. So that's also affecting the big-ticket items. I was using the consumer because in our day-to-day business here, that's what we deal with a lot more because we're a lot more in life flat rolled than in plate but affects plate through the big-ticket items. We see projects being delayed because money is expensive. This should be corrected next year as well. So that's what we expect.

這些基礎設施項目存在兩個問題。一是繁文縟節，特別是關於聯邦事務和地方事務的爭論。第二個原因是無法融資，因為利率很高。所以這也影響了高價位商品。我之所以使用消費者這個角色，是因為在我們日常的業務中，我們更多地是處理消費者的角色，因為我們在生活中更多的是接觸扁平材而不是板材，但卻透過高價商品影響板材。我們看到項目因為資金昂貴而被推遲。明年也應修正這個問題。這正是我們所期望的。

Thanks for the color. Good luck.

謝謝你的顏色。祝你好運。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

Alex Hacking, Citi.

花旗銀行的亞歷克斯‧哈金 (Alex Hacking)。

Yes, thanks. I just have one follow-up question for Celso. On your commentary on the 4Q volume, if I heard correct, maybe I misunderstood, you said that shipments should be flattish, including Stelco, but two-thirds of a quarter of Stelco should be around 400,000 tonnes. So that seems awfully low. I just wanted to double-check that. Thank you.

是的，謝謝。我只想問塞爾索一個後續問題。關於您對第四季度銷量的評論，如果我沒有聽錯的話，也許我理解錯了，您說包括Stelco 在內的出貨量應該持平，但Stelco 的三分之二的出貨量應該在400,000噸左右。這看起來太低了。我只是想再確認一下。謝謝。

Yes. No, that's right, Alex. It will be -- the Stelco -- the benefit that we're getting from Stelco from a volume standpoint kind of makes up for the volume loss for having C-6 down. So quarter over quarter, Q3 into Q4, volume should be around the same level.

是的。不，沒錯，亞歷克斯。從產量角度來看，我們從 Stelco 獲得的收益將彌補 C-6 產量下降所造成的產量損失。因此，每個季度，也就是第三季度到第四季度，交易量應該保持在同一水平。

Alex, this year, we're going to have Thanksgiving in November and the holiday season between December 25 and December 31. So it is low time. It's Q4. Last year, Q2 was 4.1 million tonnes, Q3 was 4.1 million tonnes and Q4 was 4. So Q4 is always less. So when we say that it will be around the same, it means it could be higher.

亞歷克斯，今年我們將在 11 月慶祝感恩節，並在 12 月 25 日至 12 月 31 日之間度過假期。因此時間不多了。這是 Q4。去年第二季為 410 萬噸，第三季為 410 萬噸，第四季為 4。所以 Q4 總是較少。因此，當我們說它將大致相同時，這意味著它可能會更高。

Okay. Thank you, and thanks for the clarification.

好的。謝謝你，謝謝你的澄清。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd now like to hand the call back over to Lourenco Goncalves for closing comments.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。現在我想將電話轉回 Lourenco Goncalves，請他發表最後評論。

Very good. Thank you very much for everybody that's here in the -- Darryl, I'm seeing here on my screen there is one more analyst in the queue.

非常好。非常感謝在座的各位——達裡爾，我看到我的螢幕上排隊的還有一位分析師。

Yes. We can get Chris LaFemina from Jefferies.

是的。我們可以從傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 得到克里斯拉菲米納 (Chris LaFemina)。

Hey, guys. Yes, sorry for dialing in so late. Thanks for taking in my question at the end here. Lourenco, I just wanted to ask on the Number 6 blast furnace. If we have a pretty strong demand recovery, let's say, in 2025, how long does it take to bring that back online? What are the cost to bring it back online? And what sort of pricing environment do you need to see before you would make that decision? Thank you.

嘿，大家好。是的，很抱歉這麼晚才打電話。感謝您最後回答我的問題。洛倫索，我只是想問一下 6 號高爐的情況。如果需求復甦相當強勁，比如說，在 2025 年，需要多長時間才能恢復正常？使其重新上線需要花多少錢？在做出這個決定之前您需要了解什麼樣的定價環境？謝謝。

Chris, we will bring 6 back as soon as possible, as soon as the demand comes back, and demand will come back when prices recover. So it's all interconnected. And I believe that that will happen in terms of price recovery early in the year, early in 2025. So I expect -- I fully expect that we're going to bring six back sometime early next year.

克里斯，一旦需求恢復，我們就會盡快將 6 帶回來，而當價格恢復時需求就會恢復。所以一切都是相互關聯的。我相信，價格將在年初，也就是 2025 年初回升。所以我預計——我完全預計我們能在明年年初的某個時候帶回六個。

Yes. If you just think, Chris, from a -- there's a lot of potential catalysts that are brewing in the market that could be a benefit here in the short term, right? Obviously, we started to see interest rates come down. We're going to get clarity on the US elections here, hopefully today, if not, this week.

是的。克里斯，如果你想想，市場上正在醞釀許多潛在的催化劑，這些催化劑可能會在短期內帶來好處，對嗎？顯然，我們開始看到利率下降。我們將在這裡了解美國大選的結果，希望是今天，如果不是，那就在本週。

Manufacturing onshoring will lead to demand. Imports are currently unattractive. There's potential for increased trade protection. You're going to see a lot of demand from the CHIPS Act and IRA. The auto industry eventually will rebound. So those are the things that we're kind of keeping an eye on. But as soon as we see more green shoots, we'll think about what we do from a footprint standpoint and bringing it back.

製造業在岸化將帶來需求。目前進口產品缺乏吸引力。貿易保護有可能增加。你會看到《CHIPS法案》和《IRA》的大量需求。汽車產業最終將會反彈。這些都是我們正在關注的事情。但一旦我們看到更多的綠芽，我們就會從足跡的角度考慮我們應該做什麼並將其帶回來。

And one point about the demand recovery, depending on how the -- who's going to be the President of the United States, I anticipate a lot more actions in terms of protecting the domestic market against the ones that act to -- in concerted efforts to destroy it, and I'm talking about some that are already operating here inside the United States and some of that want to be that are not going to be able to come in. So I'm very excited, very bullish about 2025, Chris.

關於需求復甦，我預計，這取決於誰將成為美國總統，在保護國內市場方面，美國將採取更多行動，以應對那些採取一致行動摧毀它，我說的是一些已經在美國境內運營的企業和一些想進入美國但無法進入的企業。因此，我非常興奮，對 2025 年非常樂觀，克里斯。

That sounds good. Thanks a lot for that, I appreciate it. Good luck.

聽起來很好。非常感謝，我非常感激。祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Maybe one more point on that. As soon as things start to pick up, we're going to see a more immediate impact now, obviously, now that we have Stelco.

關於這一點也許還有一點。一旦情況開始好轉，我們將會看到更直接的影響，顯然，現在我們有了 Stelco。

Yes, that's a good point. That's a good point. Now that we have a smaller boat to maneuver instead of the carrier, that's Cleveland-Cliffs, we're going to see impacts going through the numbers a lot quicker. So that's actually a very important point.

是的，觀點很好。這是一個很好的觀點。現在我們有一艘較小的船來代替航母，那就是克利夫蘭-克利夫斯號，我們將更快地看到影響。這其實是一個非常重要的觀點。

Phil Gibbs, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Phil Gibbs。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Good morning, Phil. I thought I had added one, but actually, while I was answering Chris, I saw your name popping up on the screen. So go ahead, please.

早上好，菲爾。我以為我已經添加了一個，但實際上，當我回答克里斯時，我看到你的名字出現在螢幕上。所以請繼續。

Thank you. Regarding the synergies with the Stelco acquisition, how should we think about those building up over the next few quarters?

謝謝。關於與 Stelco 收購的協同效應，我們應該如何看待未來幾季的綜效？

Yes, we are -- we have full conviction on the $120 million on year one that we just gave to you because we are starting to be inside the house now because there are some things -- because they are very ethical, we did not address anything related to commercial until after we closed, just to let you know. Different from other companies that they blur the line. They blow up everything that we know as rules of M&A. And they don't -- still don't close anything. We will do everything by the book. So anyway, we're starting to see real opportunities over there. So I would say that the $120 million of synergies is pretty conservative. So year one, and we'll start to see right away.

是的，我們完全相信我們剛剛給你的第一年 1.2 億美元，因為我們現在開始進入公司內部，因為有些事情——因為它們非常合乎道德，我們沒有解決在我們關閉之前，任何與商業有關的事情，只是為了讓你知道。與其他公司不同的是，他們模糊了界線。他們破壞了我們所熟知的一切併購規則。但他們沒有——仍然沒有關閉任何東西。我們將嚴格按照規定做一切事情。無論如何，我們開始看到那裡的真正機會。因此我認為 1.2 億美元的綜效是相當保守的。所以從第一年起，我們就會立即開始看到結果。

Thank you -- go ahead, sorry.

謝謝——請繼續，抱歉。

I was going to say, yes, we'll probably update the synergy number on the next call. We didn't want to do it here just since we just closed the deal on Friday, but we feel very -- really, really good about the $120 million, and we'll look to give you guys an updated number, which will likely be higher on the next call from a cost synergy standpoint. And then as Lourenco mentioned, that doesn't even take into account any sort of commercial opportunities that we're starting -- only starting now to identify. We're going over to Canada tomorrow, and we'll be with the team. So we're really excited about getting going.

我本來想說，是的，我們可能會在下次通話中更新協同效應數字。我們不想在這裡做這件事，因為我們剛剛在周五完成了這筆交易，但我們對這 1.2 億美元感到非常非常滿意，我們會向你們提供最新的數字，這可能會從成本協同效應的角度來看，下次通話中將會更高。正如 Lourenco 所提到的，這甚至沒有考慮到我們正在開始的任何商業機會——現在才開始識別。我們明天要去加拿大，我們會跟團隊在一起。所以我們真的很高興能夠開始這一步。

Thank you. And then on the larger scale projects you have over the next few years, particularly in Middletown and to a lesser extent, Butler, I know that there's some grant money associated with those projects. Have you received any of that? And what are the expectations in terms of the flow to you for those funds?

謝謝。至於未來幾年內你們的較大規模項目，特別是在米德爾頓和較小程度上的巴特勒，我知道這些項目會有一些補助金。您有收到這些嗎？您對於這些資金的流入預期是怎樣的？

Yes. We already received the first installments related to the Butler and Middletown projects, and it's ongoing and it's on schedule. I don't have this schedule in front of me right now, Phil, but we are absolutely on schedule on that.

是的。我們已經收到了與巴特勒和米德爾頓項目相關的首批款項，該項目正在進行中，一切按照計劃進行。菲爾，我現在還沒有這個日程安排，但我們絕對按照計劃進行。

And then lastly for me, just on the macro side, certainly mentioned some auto headwinds in the quarter from two specific customers at a high level. But any way to frame up how much your auto business was either impacted versus the second quarter or the third quarter of last year? I know the third quarter seemingly last year was pretty strong ahead of the work stoppage.

最後，對我來說，僅從宏觀角度來看，我肯定會提到本季來自兩個特定高層客戶的一些汽車阻力。但是，有沒有辦法估算出與去年第二季或第三季相比，您的汽車業務受到了多大的影響？我知道在停工之前，去年第三季的業績似乎相當強勁。

Yes. Look, we are not going to give you the specific per client because that would not be right. But the good thing is that the customers that we have maintained our full volumes, or slightly increased because of new models, are the ones that are performing far better than the customers that are taking less tonnes from us. So -- and even those folks, they are coming back, and they're coming back very quickly.

是的。你看，我們不會給你每個客戶的具體訊息，因為那樣不對。但好消息是，那些維持了我們全部訂單量或由於推出新車型而略有增加訂單量的客戶，其表現遠比那些從我們這裡採購較少訂單量的客戶要好得多。所以 — — 甚至那些人也回來了，而且回來得非常快。

So we -- even with that, we believe that the future will be better for us in terms of what you saw in Q3. Our Q3 performance in automotive was not good. We totally understand that. We're going to get better. And that's what I can tell you without giving any specific numbers. But directionally, you've got the picture. I'm sure they're going to be able to model on -- in your work.

因此，即使如此，我們仍然相信，就第三季的情況而言，未來將會更好。我們第三季的汽車業績表現不佳。我們完全理解這一點。我們會變得更好。這就是我可以告訴你的，但不需要給出任何具體的數字。但從方向上看，你已經明白了。我確信他們能夠以你的工作為榜樣。

Thanks. Go USA. Go Cavs. Thanks.

謝謝。去美國吧。加油，騎士隊。謝謝。

Yes, [8-0] for now. It's the best start since the '76, '77 season. As far as the win in New Orleans, tomorrow will be the best in history. And look at Jersey, we are there, and we are proud to be there. One last thing before we adjourn, go out and vote. It's the most important thing an American can do. It's time to do it. It's time to go forward in this great country of ours, and make sure that the next four years will be much better than the last eight. No matter if it was Trump or Biden, we need to keep going forward. We are the envy of the world, and we need to fulfill our duty as the leader of the free world. Thanks a lot, and go USA. Bye now.

是的，目前是[8-0]。這是自 1976、1977 賽季以來最好的開局。就新奧爾良的勝利而言，明天的勝利將成為歷史上最好的勝利。看看澤西島，我們就在那裡，我們為在那裡而感到自豪。休會前還有最後一件事，出去投票。這是美國人能做的最重要的事。是時候做這件事了。現在是我們這個偉大國家繼續前進的時候了，確保未來四年比過去八年更好。不管是川普還是拜登，我們都需要繼續前進。我們是令世界羨慕的國家，我們需要履行身為自由世界領袖的職責。非常感謝，去美國吧。再見了。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路。祝你剩餘的時光愉快。