Colliers International Group Inc (CIGI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Colliers International fourth-quarter year-end investors conference call. Today's call is being recorded. Legal counsel requires us to advise that the discussion scheduled to take place today may contain forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results may be materially different from any future results, performance, or achievements contemplated in the forward-looking statements.

歡迎參加高力國際第四季年終投資者電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。法律顧問要求我們告知，今天計劃進行的討論可能包含涉及已知和未知風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中設想的任何未來結果、績效或成就有重大差異。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the company's annual information form as filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and in the company's annual report on Form 40 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素的其他資訊包含在公司向加拿大證券管理局提交的年度資訊表和公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 40 號表年度報告中。

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Today is Thursday, February 6, 2025. And at this time for opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to the global Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jay Hennick.

提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音。今天是 2025 年 2 月 6 日，星期四。現在，在開幕致詞和介紹的時候，我想將電話轉給全球董事長兼執行長 Jay Hennick 先生。

Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

謝謝。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thanks for joining us for the fourth quarter and year-end conference call. As the operator mentioned, I'm Jay Hennick, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. And with me today is Christian Mayer, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝您，接線生。早安，感謝您參加我們的第四季和年終電話會議。正如接線員所提到的，我是董事長兼執行長傑伊‧亨尼克 (Jay Hennick)。今天和我一起的是我們的財務長克里斯蒂安·梅耶 (Christian Mayer)。

As always, this call is webcast and available in the Investor Relations section of our website along with the presentation slide deck.

與往常一樣，本次電話會議將透過網路直播，並可在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分和簡報幻燈片中查閱。

In the fourth quarter, Colliers delivered robust growth with strengthened momentum across all business segments. Engineering revenues recorded the highest percentage increase driven by recent acquisitions in Canada, the US and Australia. Real Estate Services performed strongly in both Capital Markets and Leasing, while Investment Management experienced modest growth compared to the previous year.

第四季度，高力國際各業務部門均實現強勁成長，發展動能強勁。受近期在加拿大、美國和澳洲的收購推動，工程收入錄得最高百分比增幅。房地產服務在資本市場和租賃方面均表現強勁，而投資管理與上一年相比則經歷了適度增長。

Over the past few years, Colliers has become stronger and more resilient, driven by three high-value growth engines: Real Estate Services, Engineering and Investment Management, all supported by recurring revenues that now account for more than 70% of our earnings.

過去幾年，高力國際變得更加強大和更具韌性，這得益於三大高價值成長引擎：房地產服務、工程和投資管理，所有這些成長引擎都由經常性收入支撐，目前這些收入占我們收益的 70% 以上。

Looking ahead to '25, we expect another solid year of growth, and we're quite excited about our future prospects. Our enterprising culture continues to thrive, thanks to our experienced leadership that is fully aligned with shareholders. Our global teams have long tenure.

展望25年，我們預計今年將是另一個穩健的成長年，我們對我們的未來前景感到非常興奮。由於我們經驗豐富的領導層與股東的一致意見，我們的進取文化繼續蓬勃發展。我們的全球團隊任期很長。

They operate in a decentralized way that is supported by long-term incentive programs that foster an owner's mindset. This unique culture provides significant competitive advantages to Colliers that is extremely difficult to replicate.

它們以分散的方式運作，並輔以長期激勵計劃以培養所有者心態。這種獨特的文化為高力國際提供了顯著的競爭優勢，且極難複製。

Our new Engineering platform now boasts 8,000 professionals, is underpinned by a strong recurring revenue base and robust contractual backlogs offering significant growth opportunities on a global basis both internally and through acquisition.

我們新的工程平台目前擁有 8,000 名專業人員，並以強大的經常性收入基礎和穩健的合約積壓為基礎，透過內部和收購在全球範圍內提供了巨大的成長機會。

We also see three near-term catalysts that drive even stronger growth in 2025 and beyond. In Real Estate Services, our Capital Markets business is showing cyclical recovery as interest rates and asset valuation stabilize, albeit slower than we expected. While performance hasn't yet reached the 2021 peak, our significantly larger scale now positions us extremely well to deliver even stronger results in the future as the market recovers.

我們也看到了三個近期催化劑，它們將推動 2025 年及以後實現更強勁的成長。在房地產服務方面，隨著利率和資產估值趨於穩定，我們的資本市場業務呈現週期性復甦，儘管速度比我們預期的要慢。雖然業績尚未達到 2021 年的峰值，但我們規模已顯著擴大，這使我們能夠在未來市場復甦時取得更強勁的業績。

In Investment Management, improved fundraising efforts and the launch of several new vintages of our proven investment products set the stage for robust revenue growth and a new step-up in growth and profitability as we strategically deploy new capital in new investments going forward.

在投資管理方面，隨著我們在未來新的投資中策略性地部署新資本，我們改進了籌資工作並推出了幾款經過驗證的新投資產品，為強勁的收入增長以及增長和盈利能力的進一步提升奠定了基礎。

Finally, as always, our 2025 outlook does not include the potential upside from additional acquisitions which we might complete during the year and have historically been very accretive. Our pipelines remain strong, and we expect to continue to scale and diversify each of our three business segments throughout the year.

最後，與往常一樣，我們對 2025 年的展望並不包括我們可能在年內完成的額外收購帶來的潛在上升空間，而且從歷史上看，這些收購的增值潛力非常大。我們的產品線依然強勁，我們預計全年將繼續擴大和多樣化我們的三個業務部門。

This year we have also decided to accelerate our plans to streamline our Investment Management operations to take advantage of the synergies much faster than anticipated. This move will set the stage for future opportunities and create increased optionality as we continue to build out one of the world's largest mid-market alternative asset managers with about $100 billion of assets under management.

今年，我們也決定加快簡化投資管理業務的計劃，以比預期更快地利用綜效。隨著我們繼續打造全球最大的中型另類資產管理公司之一，管理的資產規模約為 1000 億美元，此舉將為未來的機會奠定基礎，並創造更多的選擇性。

Supported by visionary leadership, significant inside ownership and a proven 30-year track record of delivering 20% annualized returns for shareholders, Colliers is extremely well positioned to continue to create value for shareholders for many years to come.

在富有遠見的領導層、重要的內部所有權以及 30 年來為股東實現 20% 年化回報率的良好記錄的支持下，高力國際完全有能力在未來許多年繼續為股東創造價值。

Now let me ask Christian to provide his financial report. Then we'll open things up for questions. Christian?

現在我請克里斯蒂安提供他的財務報告。然後我們會開始回答問題。基督教？

Thank you, Jay, and good morning, everyone. Please note that the non-GAAP measures discussed here today are as defined in the materials accompanying this call. Revenues for the fourth quarter were $1.5 billion, up 22% relative to the prior-year period.

謝謝傑伊，大家早安。請注意，今天討論的非公認會計準則指標與本次電話會議隨附資料中的定義一致。第四季營收為 15 億美元，較去年同期成長 22%。

Local currency internal growth was 10% overall and was led by Capital Markets, which was up meaningfully against a low base in the prior year, and Engineering, which had strong gains in both the engineering and project management disciplines.

當地貨幣內部成長整體為 10%，其中，資本市場和工程領域均取得了顯著成長，資本市場較上年同期的低基數有顯著成長，工程領域在工程和專案管理領域均取得了強勁成長。

The fourth quarter's adjusted EBITDA was $225 million, up 14% over the prior year, with internal growth and acquisitions contributing in roughly even proportions. Our Real Estate Services operations had 13% revenue growth, led by Capital Markets, which was up 25%. Europe and the Americas drove the Capital Markets gain with sharp increases in transaction activity in office and industrial asset classes.

第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.25 億美元，較上年成長 14%，其中內部成長和收購的貢獻比例大致相等。我們的房地產服務業務收入成長了 13%，其中資本市場收入成長了 25%。歐洲和美洲推動了資本市場的成長，辦公和工業資產類別的交易活動急劇增加。

In Asia Pacific, strong year-over-year Capital Markets growth in Australia was offset by macroeconomically driven declines in China, Hong Kong and South Korea. Leasing revenues were up 14%, with notable increases in activity in the office, industrial and retail asset classes globally.

在亞太地區，澳洲資本市場較去年同期強勁成長被中國、香港和韓國宏觀經濟驅動的下滑所抵銷。租賃收入成長了 14%，全球辦公室、工業和零售資產類別的活動顯著增加。

The segment's margin remained flat versus the prior-year quarter, with operating leverage from higher revenues offset by ongoing investments to recruit brokerage professionals. Engineering performed well in Q4 with overall revenue growth of 61%, with the bulk from acquisitions as well as high single-digit percentage internal growth. The net revenue margin increased -- decreased slightly to 12.8% relative to 13.5% in the prior-year period, due mainly to weather-related seasonality inherent in recently-acquired businesses.

該部門的利潤率與去年同期相比持平，持續招募經紀專業人員的投資抵消了更高收入帶來的營業槓桿作用。工程業務在第四季度表現良好，總收入成長了 61%，其中大部分來自收購以及高個位數百分比的內部成長。淨收入利潤率較去年同期的 13.5% 略有增加 - 下降至 12.8%，這主要歸因於新收購業務固有的與天氣相關的季節性。

Investment Management revenues were up 6% overall and up 1%, excluding pass-through performance fees, as expected. Q4 EBITDA was also up 1%, while the margin was flat relative to the comparable period driven by ongoing investments in our fundraising capabilities and cost to launch new fund products and strategies.

如預期，投資管理收入整體成長 6%，扣除轉嫁績效費後成長 1%。第四季的 EBITDA 也成長了 1%，而利潤率與去年同期持平，這得益於我們對籌資能力的持續投資以及推出新基金產品和策略的成本。

We raised $1.3 billion of new capital commitments during the quarter, bringing full-year fundraising to $3.8 billion, as we expected. We are in the process of deploying capital raised and have started to raise for new vintages launching in 2025.

我們在本季籌集了 13 億美元的新資本承諾，使全年籌資額達到 38 億美元，正如我們預期的那樣。我們正在部署籌集到的資金，並已開始為 2025 年推出的新年份葡萄酒籌集資金。

Assets under management at year-end were $98.9 million, up slightly from September 30. AUM gains came from fundraising and positive mark-to-market adjustments and in almost all asset classes, but were largely offset by asset realizations at older vintage funds with capital returned to investors. Redemption activity, which is permitted with certain restrictions in our perpetual funds, was modest.

年底管理的資產為 9,890 萬美元，較 9 月 30 日略有成長。資產管理規模的成長來自於籌資和正向的市價調整，並且幾乎涵蓋了所有資產類別，但在很大程度上被較老的基金的資產變現（資本返還給投資者）所抵消。在我們的永久基金中，在某些限制下允許的贖回活動是適度的。

Turning to our balance sheet. During the quarter, we upsized and locked in our revolving credit facility for a new five-year term. We currently have over $1.2 billion of capacity to fund future growth. Our leverage ratio, defined as net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA, was 2 times at December 31. As expected, we delevered during the fourth quarter through a combination of EBITDA growth and seasonally strong free cash flow.

轉向我們的資產負債表。在本季度，我們擴大了循環信貸額度，並鎖定了新的五年期限。我們目前擁有超過 12 億美元的融資能力來資助未來的成長。我們的槓桿率（定義為淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 的比率）截至 12 月 31 日為 2 倍。正如預期的那樣，我們在第四季度透過 EBITDA 成長和季節性強勁的自由現金流實現了槓桿化。

For the first half of 2025, we expect leverage to remain in the 2 times range, then to decline to approximately 1.5 times in the second half. This, of course, assumes no material acquisitions. We are introducing our outlook for 2025 with commentary by segment to provide additional clarity. The outlook reflects currently prevailing foreign exchange rates, which are closely tied to international trade uncertainty and are a headwind to our US dollar reported results.

對於 2025 年上半年，我們預期槓桿率將維持在 2 倍左右，下半年將下降至 1.5 倍左右。當然，這假設沒有物質收購。我們將透過分部分的評論來介紹 2025 年的展望，以提供更多的清晰度。該前景反映了當前普遍的外匯匯率，該匯率與國際貿易不確定性密切相關，並對我們的美元報告業績造成阻力。

We expect our Real Estate Services revenues to grow at mid-single-digit percentage rate with a modest margin increase. We expect Engineering revenues to be up about 30% with about one-fifth of that growth attributable to internal sources. Engineering margins are expected to increase nicely from the impact of higher-margin acquisitions as well as margin expansion in our base business.

我們預計我們的房地產服務收入將以中等個位數百分比成長，利潤率也將適度增加。我們預計工程收入將成長約 30%，其中約五分之一的成長歸因於內部來源。預計，受利潤率較高的收購以及基礎業務利潤率擴大的影響，工程利潤率將大幅提升。

Our Investment Management division is beginning a new cycle of fundraising with several new flagship long-dated vintages launching in 2025, which should result in higher revenue streams as we progress through the year and into 2026. Given our continuing investments in fundraising and our accelerated operational integration plans, 2025 margins are expected to remain flat or modestly down relative to 2024.

我們的投資管理部門即將開始新一輪的融資週期，並將於 2025 年推出幾款新的旗艦長年份葡萄酒，隨著我們在今年和 2026 年的到來，這將帶來更高的收入來源。鑑於我們在籌資方面的持續投資以及我們加速的營運整合計劃，預計 2025 年的利潤率將與 2024 年相比保持持平或略有下降。

We are expecting a significant step-change in Investment Management EBITDA and margins in 2026 as capital formation strengthens. On a consolidated basis for the full year 2025, we expect high single-digit to low-teens percentage revenue growth and low teens adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS growth.

隨著資本形成的加強，我們預計 2026 年投資管理 EBITDA 和利潤率將發生顯著變化。在 2025 年全年綜合基礎上，我們預期營收成長率將達到高個位數至低十位數，調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EPS 成長率將達到低十位數。

That concludes my prepared remarks. We'll now open the call to questions. Operator, can you please open the line?

我的準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在開始回答問題。接線員，可以接通電話嗎？

Thank you

謝謝

(Operator Instructiosn)

(操作人員指示)

Your first question comes from the line of Anthony Paulson from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的安東尼·保爾森。請繼續。

Great, thanks. Good morning. I wanted to start on the engineering side and wondering if you can give us a little bit more color on how integration is going, where you may have seen any headwinds, and just movement toward pushing price in that business and just how it's coming along.

太好了，謝謝。早安.我想從工程方面開始，想知道您是否可以給我們更多關於整合進展的情況，您可能在哪些方面看到了阻力，以及推動該業務價格的動向以及它的進展情況。

Yes. Integration has been relatively simple actually because Englobe is a national player in Canada. There was no overlap with the US business. And it was a beautiful attachment to our base business. The only integration that we're dealing with in the Engineering area is Australia, New Zealand, where we are continuing to build out a solid and more significant platform.

是的。由於 Englobe 是加拿大的國家級企業，因此整合過程實際上相對簡單。與美國業務沒有重疊。這對我們的基礎業務來說是一個美好的配件。我們在工程領域處理的唯一整合是澳洲和紐西蘭，我們正在那裡繼續建立堅實且更重要的平台。

It's going well. The results are better than expected. But over the next couple of years, we expect more growth and more investment in technology to be sort of consistent with what we have both in Canada and the United States. So we're excited about that. But integration has not been an issue for us in Engineering.

一切進展順利。結果比預期的要好。但在接下來的幾年裡，我們預計科技將有更多的成長和投資，與加拿大和美國的現狀保持一致。我們對此感到很興奮。但對我們工程部門來說，整合並不是問題。

Is that investment you're making, is that a margin headwind in the near term? Just trying to understand how to think about any pickup there in '25 or not?

這是您所做的投資嗎？只是想了解如何看待 25 年的任何回升？

Well, Tony, the margin impact in Engineering will come from the higher-margin acquisitions completed during 2024, and also some organic margin improvement. Some of the integration efforts in Australia, they do take time and they do take energy, and they do have a slight adverse margin impact. We're also integrating our newly acquired MG2 business in the U.S., and that will take place over the next 12 months. And there is considerable work to do to integrate these tuck-in acquisitions, but not meaningfully impactful on our margins.

嗯，托尼，工程部門的利潤率影響將來自 2024 年完成的利潤率更高的收購，以及一些有機利潤率的提高。澳洲的一些整合工作確實需要花費時間和精力，而且會對利潤率產生輕微的不利影響。我們還將整合我們新收購的美國 MG2 業務，這將在未來 12 個月內完成。整合這些臨時收購還有很多工作要做，但這些收購對我們的利潤率不會產生重大影響。

Okay. And then just my second question, just in Investment Management. Can you give us any just capital-raising goals or net sort of AUM you think you should end up with when you consider the new products you're launching as well as net of any sort of liquidations of vehicles may be put aside your market change?

好的。這是我的第二個問題，有關投資管理。您能否告訴我們，當您考慮到您即將推出的新產品，以及扣除任何類型的車輛清算後，您認為最終應該達到的資本籌集目標或淨資產管理規模，以及市場變化可能帶來的結果？

Yes. Tony, as I mentioned, we raised $3.8 billion of capital in 2025, which was an increase from -- sorry, in 2024. Let me say that again. We raised $3.8 billion in 2024, which is an increase from 2023. Conditions have obviously been challenging the last couple of years. So that's the context.

是的。東尼，正如我所提到的，我們在 2025 年籌集了 38 億美元的資金，這比 2024 年有所增加。讓我再說一次。我們在 2024 年籌集了 38 億美元，比 2023 年增加。過去幾年的情況顯然十分艱難。這就是背景。

For 2025, we're expecting to raise between $5 billion and $8 billion of capital. And this is in new vintages of funds. So these funds are going to have first closes in the midyear to late year, this year, and then accelerating with additional fundraising as we head into 2026. So as I mentioned, this is a building year with a new fundraising cycle starting, and we expect fundraising to pick up meaningfully into late '25, hopefully, and certainly in 2026.

到 2025 年，我們預計將籌集 50 億至 80 億美元的資金。這是新一批基金的情況。因此，這些基金將在今年年中至年末首次關閉，然後在進入 2026 年時加速額外募款。正如我所提到的，這是一個建設年，新的籌款週期開始了，我們預計籌款將在 2025 年末顯著增加，希望是在 2026 年。

Okay, thanks for the time.

好的，謝謝您抽出時間。

Stephen McLeod, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO資本市場部的 Stephen McLeod。

Thank you. Good morning guys. Just wanted to follow-up on the Engineering business, which had a nice quarter and seems like a decent outlook. Can you talk a little bit about just the margin dynamic in the first quarter? And then you talked about just the margin expectation for 2025. And just curious if you can put some color around how that is expected to evolve and what level it could potentially get to this year?

謝謝。大家早安。只是想跟進一下工程業務，該業務本季表現不錯，前景似乎也不錯。能談談第一季的利潤率動態嗎？然後您談到了 2025 年的利潤預期。我很好奇，您能否解釋一下預計這種情況將如何發展，以及今年可能達到什麼水平？

Yes, so Stephen, our Q4 margin was impacted by newly-acquired businesses during the year. And as you know, Englobe is a significant Canadian engineering firm and has weather-related seasonality attached to it. So that is an impact that we saw in the 2024 quarter, but not in the 2023 quarter.

是的，史蒂芬，我們第四季的利潤率受到了年內新收購業務的影響。如您所知，Englobe 是一家重要的加拿大工程公司，其業務與天氣相關的季節性有關。因此，我們在 2024 年季度看到了這種影響，但在 2023 年季度沒有看到。

So as we look ahead to 2025, we will benefit from the full year effect of recent acquisitions, which are at higher margins than the base business. So certainly expect a 150-basis-point or so margin increase in 2025 in the Engineering segment on an overall basis.

因此，展望 2025 年，我們將受惠於近期收購的全年效應，其利潤率高於基礎業務。因此，預計 2025 年工程部門的整體利潤率將增加 150 個基點左右。

The other thing you need to think about here is that we report our revenues on a gross basis. If you report -- if you look at our revenues on a net basis, and we did provide some information in our materials about what those net revenues are in our Engineering segment, our margin is 200 to 300 basis points higher on a net revenue basis. So we're going to continue to provide that information going forward.

您需要考慮的另一件事是，我們按照總額報告我們的收入。如果您報告 - 如果您以淨額為基礎查看我們的收入，並且我們確實在我們的材料中提供了一些有關我們工程部門的淨收入的信息，那麼我們的利潤率在淨收入基礎上高出 200 到 300 個基點。因此我們將繼續提供這些資訊。

And IFRS also.

還有 IFRS。

Yes, there's the other piece, is when you're comparing us to the Canadian engineering firms, under IFRS, they do not include rent expense as an expense against their EBITDA. So that again raises their margin profile relative to our US GAAP reported margin by another 100 to 200 basis points.

是的，還有另一點，當你將我們與加拿大工程公司進行比較時，根據國際財務報告準則，他們沒有將租金費用作為 EBITDA 的費用。因此，這再次將其利潤率相對於我們根據美國 GAAP 報告的利潤率提高了 100 到 200 個基點。

Right. Okay. That's helpful. And then just turning to the Investment Management business. I think you characterized this year as a new cycle of fundraising, and it sounds like you have a lot of initiatives on the go.

正確的。好的。這很有幫助。然後轉向投資管理業務。我覺得您將今年描述為籌款的新周期，聽起來您有很多計劃正在進行中。

As we think through the margin impact this year and next year, do you foresee a scenario where Investment Management margins kind of get back into that 44%, 45% range in 2026 once you've completed your fundraising and you really see that revenue pick up?

當我們考慮今年和明年的利潤率影響時，您是否預見到這樣的情況：一旦您完成融資並且真正看到收入回升，投資管理利潤率將在 2026 年回到 44% 至 45% 的範圍內？

Steve, the answer is yes. We see those margins improving. And principally, today, we're impacted by additional investments in fundraising integration, which we've accelerated the process on. So those are cost headwinds given the relatively modest revenue growth we've seen.

史蒂夫，答案是肯定的。我們看到這些利潤率正在提高。主要的是，今天，我們受到了籌資整合額外投資的影響，我們加快了這一進程。因此，考慮到我們看到的相對溫和的收入成長，這些都是成本方面的阻力。

But as that revenue growth accelerates with fundraising, our margins should increase in lockstep with that. And certainly, we would hope to be back at that mid-40s, high-40s percentage margin over the next year or two.

但隨著營收成長隨著融資的加速，我們的利潤率也應該同步增加。當然，我們希望在未來一兩年內，利潤率能回到45%左右。

So Steve, I'd add something to that. You've been a long analyst. But we are being very aggressive in this segment this year. As I sort of indicated in my comments, there's a massive opportunity. We have a significant business with great strategies, great results for our investors.

所以史蒂夫，我想補充一些內容。您已經擔任分析師多年了。但今年我們在這一領域非常積極進取。正如我在評論中指出的那樣，這是一個巨大的機會。我們的業務規模龐大，制定的策略出色，為投資者帶來了豐厚的回報。

And the fact that fundraising has been soft across the board, I'm just going to give you some additional color to it, across the board, what it's done is it has brought our strategies closer together, the leaders of each of the strategies closer together. And they've spent a lot of time talking about synergies, fundraising and a variety of other initiatives that they believe that they can significantly benefit from going forward, if they took certain strategic steps.

事實上，籌款活動一直總體疲軟，我只是想給你一些額外的信息，從整體上看，它使我們的戰略更加緊密地結合在一起，使每個戰略的領導者更加緊密地結合在一起。他們花了很多時間討論協同效應、籌款和各種其他舉措，他們相信，如果採取某些策略步驟，他們將從中受益匪淺。

These are steps that we always anticipated, as you know, in building our platform, we always focused on doing it in partnership with the operating management teams. But what's happening, interestingly, in this segment is they're all coming together much faster than we expected, primarily because of the macro conditions. And that's creating huge opportunities.

這些都是我們一直期待的步驟，如您所知，在建立我們的平台時，我們始終專注於與營運管理團隊合作。但有趣的是，在這一領域，它們的融合速度比我們預期的要快得多，這主要是因為宏觀條件。這創造了巨大的機會。

So although -- and yes, we have new products launching this year, which will help our business and will return our margins to 45%, but I think our overall platform will accelerate materially over the next 18 months and really position us beautifully going forward based on what we're seeing across the board in this segment of our business. That could include name change, that could include an integrated leadership team, all of which creates more flexibility for us. All of this creates new optionality for us.

因此，儘管—是的，我們今年推出了新產品，這將有助於我們的業務，並將我們的利潤率恢復到 45%，但我認為我們的整體平台將在未來 18 個月內大幅加速，並且根據我們在這一業務領域全面看到的情況，我們將在未來佔據良好的地位。這可能包括更改名稱，可能包括整合的領導團隊，所有這些都為我們創造了更多的靈活性。這一切為我們創造了新的選擇。

And this business, as you know, is highly valuable. And we're approached on an ongoing basis by many that would love to have this platform as part of their organization. We, on the other hand, have a tremendous management team that believe that they can take this business to new heights. And we made the executive decision to accelerate our plans and get ourselves ready for '26 and beyond, and there's lots of exciting things happening.

正如您所知，這項業務非常有價值。許多人不斷與我們聯繫，希望將這個平台作為組織的一部分。另一方面，我們擁有一支出色的管理團隊，他們相信自己能夠將這項業務推向新的高度。我們做出了行政決定，加速我們的計劃，為2026年及以後做好準備，有很多令人興奮的事情正在發生。

So we're quite excited about it. It will impact our margins, I believe, in '25. Not really -- don't really care about that too much, to be honest, as long-term shareholders and business builders. But this will translate into huge value, I think in the years to come.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我相信，這將影響我們25年的利潤率。不是真的——說實話，作為長期股東和企業建設者，並不太在意這一點。但我認為在未來幾年這將轉化為巨大的價值。

Yes. Okay. Well, that's great color, Jay. Thank you. And obviously, consistent with your long-term approach. So thank you very much for that color. Maybe just one more question, if I could, just on the recruiting investments in the Real Estate Services business. I mean what do you need to see to see returns on those investments?

是的。好的。嗯，顏色真棒，傑伊。謝謝。顯然，這與您的長期方針一致。所以非常感謝這個顏色。如果可以的話，我可能還想問一個問題，關於房地產服務業務的招募投資。我的意思是您需要看到什麼才能看到這些投資的回報？

Well, we're seeing the returns already. You're seeing strong leasing results. The one thing that's become clear to us too over the course of time is we created -- and again, I mentioned it, we've created a unique culture, which has been part of our way of operating for many, many years. Recruiting has been right up there. Colliers is hands-down the third-most recognized firm in the world.

嗯，我們已經看到了回報。您看到了強勁的租賃業績。隨著時間的推移，我們越來越清楚的一點是，我們創造了——我再次提到過，我們創造了一種獨特的文化，這已經成為我們多年來運作方式的一部分。招聘工作一直進展順利。高力國際毫無疑問是全球第三大知名公司。

We operate in every city. We look at this business not dissimilar to the accounting industry. I'm not sure there's much difference between Pricewaterhouse, Deloitte and the other accounting firms. There is, for sure, not that much difference between CB, Jones Lang and Colliers.

我們的業務遍及每個城市。我們認為這個行業與會計行業並無不同。我不確定普華永道、德勤和其他會計師事務所之間有很大區別。當然，CB、仲量聯行和高力國際之間並沒有太大的差異。

Our professionals are as good as their professionals. We have leading market positions in every major market around the world. And we have a platform that continues to grow market for market despite the headwinds that this industry is under.

我們的專業人員和他們的專業人員一樣優秀。我們在全球各主要市場均佔有領先地位。儘管這個行業面臨阻力，但我們擁有一個能夠持續實現市場成長的平台。

So if we see Capital Markets returning, as just one example, to previous levels, huge upside for us. But we also are taking advantage of other opportunities within that business to continue to accelerate our growth. And I think you'll see that coming through in '25 and beyond as well.

因此，如果我們看到資本市場回升至以前的水平（僅舉一個例子），那麼對我們來說將獲得巨大的好處。但我們也利用該業務中的其他機會來繼續加速我們的成長。我認為您還將在 25 年及以後看到這一點。

That is great. Thank you, Jay. I appreciate the color.

那太棒了。謝謝你，傑伊。我很欣賞這個顏色。

Stephen Sheldon, William Blair.

史蒂芬謝爾頓，威廉布萊爾。

Hey, thanks for taking my question. First here, just following up on your investment management commentary, Jay. As you think of -- as you talk about kind of operational integration, can you give more detail about what that really means? How integrated do you want those IM assets to be? What functions are you wanting more integrated?

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。首先，我想跟進一下你的投資管理評論，傑伊。當您想到—當您談到某種營運整合時，您能否更詳細地說明這到底意味著什麼？您希望這些 IM 資產的整合程度如何？您希望進一步整合哪些功能？

And just generally, how this could position the IM segment for better financial contribution looking forward. Is it more about better top line growth with better distribution? Or is there a pretty big -- is there a potential for a margin uplift too? I mean you kind of already talked about getting to -- back to mid-40s IM margins. But just how are -- just more detail there, I guess on the operational integration.

總體而言，這將如何幫助即時通訊領域在未來做出更好的財務貢獻。這是否更關乎透過更好的分銷實現更好的營收成長？或者是否存在相當大的──是否也存在著提高利潤率的潛力？我的意思是你已經談到要回到 40 年代中期的 IM 利潤率。但究竟如何—我猜想那裡會有更多關於營運整合的細節。

Well, the interesting part is strategy for strategy is not going to be integrated. They're led by tremendous investors that have delivered superior returns over many, many years. What we are integrating is more of the back-office, regulatory.

嗯，有趣的是，策略不會被整合。它們由出色的投資者領導，這些投資者多年來為公司帶來了豐厚的回報。我們正在整合的更多是後台和監管部分。

We're spending lots of time on fundraising, and in particular, in particular -- like it makes no sense for us to be fundraising three or four different strategies through three or four different brands. Investors want to consolidate their investment decisions. And so we're looking at more of back-office synergies.

我們在募款上花費了大量時間，特別是——透過三四個不同的品牌以三、四種不同的策略進行募款對我們來說是沒有意義的。投資者希望鞏固他們的投資決策。因此，我們正在尋求更多的後台協同效應。

Our investment results have been stellar when compared to others. And so it's all around how do we do this in a more streamlined way. It has been the Colliers way forever to look at simplicity and streamlining, while leaving the people on the frontline that are the entrepreneurs, the investors, to continue to deliver on the positive results that they have been generating.

與其他人相比，我們的投資表現非常出色。所以關鍵在於我們如何以更簡化的方式做到這一點。高力國際一貫追求簡潔精簡，同時讓第一線員工，也就是企業家和投資者，繼續實現他們所創造的正面成果。

So I think you'll see in the next year or two much of the back-office come together and the synergies created around things that are ancillary to the investment principles that have made our businesses as strong as they are.

因此，我認為，在未來一兩年內，你會看到大部分後台工作聚集在一起，並圍繞著與投資原則相關的事物產生協同效應，這些投資原則使我們的業務變得如此強大。

Got it. Makes a lot of sense. And then just as a follow-up, within the RES kind of mid-single-digit guidance for 2025. Can you frame roughly what your underlying assumptions are for the brokerage segment as we think about Leasing, Capital Markets? How conservative do you think you've been with your assumptions at this point? And are you assuming any pushout of activity in the first half, I guess, given some of the noise in the market right now, as we think about things like the trade war, rate uncertainty, et cetera?

知道了。非常有道理。然後作為後續行動，在 RES 中個位數指導範圍內。當我們考慮租賃和資本市場時，您能否大致概括一下您對經紀業務領域的基本假設是什麼？您認為目前您的假設有多保守？您是否認為上半年會出現任何活動延遲的情況，考慮到目前市場上的一些噪音，例如貿易戰、利率不確定性等？

Yes. Sure, Stephen. I mean, all those things. The trade issues that are being raised has resulted in uncertainty amongst occupiers and investors, particularly industrial occupiers and investors that relate to the trade and goods across borders. So that's something that we're certainly thinking about.

是的。當然，史蒂芬。我指的是，所有這些事情。所提出的貿易問題導致了佔用者和投資者的不確定性，特別是與跨境貿易和商品相關的工業佔用者和投資者。所以這正是我們正在考慮的事情。

We're also seeing the trade impacted effect on exchange rates. And our growth, as we sit here today, at prevailing exchange rates, it's going to be impacted by 2% to 3% in 2025, with Real Estate Services, half of our revenues being generated outside the U.S., and the same in Engineering.

我們也看到貿易對匯率的影響。而以今天的現行匯率計算，到 2025 年，我們的成長將受到 2% 到 3% 的影響，其中，房地產服務收入的一半來自美國以外，工程收入也是如此。

Just on currency --

僅就貨幣而言--

On currency alone. So we're thinking about all these things as we look at our Real Estate Services outlook. And we're also, in terms of bifurcating the growth expectations, Capital Markets, I would say, is a high single-digit growth expectation coming off low basis, and then mid-single-digits for Leasing and Outsourcing. But certainly, those percentage growth impacts -- or those kind of growth figures that I quoted are being influenced by current trade policy and FX conditions.

僅就貨幣而言。因此，當我們審視房地產服務前景時，我們正在考慮所有這些事情。我們也對成長預期進行了劃分，我想說，資本市場的成長預期是在低基礎上實現的高個位數成長，而租賃和外包的成長預期則是在中等個位數成長。但可以肯定的是，這些百分比成長影響——或者我引用的那些成長數字——受到當前貿易政策和外匯狀況的影響。

Steve, I think it could be high. And we'll just have to see how things roll out. We would have expected Capital Markets, which did nicely in the fourth quarter, I think we were hoping it would be doing a little better than it did. And things could change. But it relates to interest rates, it relates to asset valuations, gaps between buyers and sellers. There's a lot of factors that could change. But when it changes, it could make a material positive impact on our numbers for '25 and beyond.

史蒂夫，我認為它可能很高。我們只需觀察事情如何發展。我們原本預期資本市場在第四季表現良好，我想我們希望它的表現會比現在更好。情況可能會改變。但它與利率、資產估值、買家和賣家之間的差距有關。有很多因素可能會改變。但當它發生變化時，它可能會對我們25年及以後的數字產生重大積極影響。

Got it, very helpful. Thank you guys.

明白了，很有幫助。謝謝你們。

Frederic Bastien, Raymond James.

弗雷德里克·巴斯蒂安、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hi, good morning everybody. I just wanted to touch on the Engineering business. You're calling for a fairly healthy margin expansion. Do you expect that to be linear over the next few quarters? Or is it -- would it be back-end loaded in the back half? Just wanted to get some color as to the cadence of the margin improvement, please.

大家早安。我只是想談談工程業務。您呼籲實現相當健康的利潤率擴張。您預計未來幾季這一趨勢會呈現線性成長嗎？或者是——它會在後半部分後端加載嗎？我只是想了解一下利潤率提高的節奏。

Yes, Frederic, it's a good question. There is a little bit of seasonality in our Engineering business. We saw a little bit of that in Q4. We'll see a little bit more in Q1. The seasonal peak quarters in Engineering are Q2 and Q3. So I think the margin that we referenced, you'll start to see the full effect of that in Q2 and Q3, and also in Q4 going forward as we finish the year 2025.

是的，弗雷德里克，這是個好問題。我們的工程業務有一定的季節性。我們在第四季看到了一些這樣的情況。我們將在第一季看到更多。工程行業的季節性高峰期是第二季和第三季。因此，我認為，隨著 2025 年的結束，您將在第二季和第三季以及第四季開始看到其全部影響。

Okay. And then the -- I just want to touch on the organic growth expectations that you have for that business. You look at the big comps, they're all kind of guiding for multiyear growth in the mid- to, I would say, like I know from 5% to 8%. Is that sort of the ballpark that you're also aiming for?

好的。然後——我只想談談您對該業務的有機成長預期。看看大型公司的業績，它們都預示著中期至未來幾年的成長，例如我所知道的 5% 到 8%。這也是你所追求的目標嗎？

Yes. Yes, absolutely.

是的。是的，絕對是如此。

Any additional color per segment? I mean, have the US, still your business, would that be comparable in other markets?

每個片段有額外的顏色嗎？我的意思是，美國仍然是您的業務，在其他市場是否具有可比性？

Yes. I think the markets we operate in, particularly in the Engineering space, Canada, US, Australia, have similar things going on with long-term tailwinds in infrastructure spending. There is a bit of noise about some of the government spending in the US today, but we think that is going to be immaterial. It might cause a bit of timing, but it shouldn't be material to the long-term trajectory of our business.

是的。我認為我們營運的市場，特別是工程領域、加拿大、美國、澳大利亞，也有類似的情況，基礎建設支出長期處於順風狀態。目前，美國政府的部分支出存在一些爭議，但我們認為這並不重要。這可能會導致一些時間問題，但對於我們業務的長期發展來說並不重要。

And in this business, as you know, Frederic, we have backlogs of work and clients with significant ongoing needs for services, for professional technical services around their various real assets that they have located across the continent and in Australia. So we feel pretty good about our prospects.

正如弗雷德里克您所知，在這個行業中，我們有大量的工作積壓，並且客戶對服務有著巨大的持續需求，需要為他們遍布大陸和澳大利亞的各種實際資產提供專業的技術服務。因此，我們對我們的前景感到非常樂觀。

Thanks for that and thank you for breaking down the net revenues. It's helpful to us.

謝謝您，也謝謝您細分淨收入。這對我們很有幫助。

Daryl Young, Stifel.

達裡爾楊（Daryl Young），Stifel。

Hey, good morning everyone. I wanted to ask first about the small architectural design acquisition that you did in December of MG2. I recognize it's a small deal. But I'm just curious if it's something you see potentially spooling up into a bigger platform in the years ahead? Or is it really just to augment the Engineering Services?

嘿，大家早安。我想先問問您在 12 月對 MG2 進行的小型建築設計收購。我知道這是一件小事。但我只是好奇，您是否認為未來幾年它有可能發展成為一個更大的平台？或者它真的只是為了增強工程服務？

It's to augment the Engineering services. This particular architecture firm that we acquired, although it's framed as an architecture firm, better than 50% of its revenue is more project program management for large logistics providers across the US and a very complementary to the rest of our business in Engineering as well.

這是為了增強工程服務。我們收購的這家建築公司，雖然名義上是一家建築公司，但其 50% 以上的收入更多是為美國各地的大型物流供應商進行專案計劃管理，並且與我們在工程領域的其他業務也有很大補充。

So I think what's happening in that entire sector is that the definition of what engineering is continues to widen. They become more multidisciplined professional services firms that do a variety of things. And as we continue to grow and scale that business, we're seeing new services that you might call engineering services but they're highly specialized, in aviation, in marine, in a variety of other things that are not traditional engineering-type firms.

所以我認為整個領域正在發生的事情是工程的定義正在不斷擴大。它們變得更加多元化，成為從事各種業務的多學科專業服務公司。隨著我們業務的不斷發展和擴大，我們看到了一些新的服務，您可以稱之為工程服務，但它們是高度專業化的，涉及航空、航海和其他各種領域，而這些領域並不是傳統的工程公司。

So that's the beauty of this segment. It is so wide and expanding, and from our perspective, global in nature, with -- and you've heard this before, we have strong leadership teams globally so we can easily execute when the opportunity is there, and integrate as we have done so well over many, many years.

這就是這個片段的美妙之處。這個範圍非常廣，而且在不斷擴展，從我們的角度來看，它是全球性的——而且你之前也聽說過，我們在全球擁有強大的領導團隊，因此當機會出現時，我們可以輕鬆地執行，並像我們多年來做得很好的那樣進行整合。

So we're quite excited about this segment. That's one of the reasons why we started to split ourselves into three different operating segments and growth engines, because the opportunity in this particular one, in the -- we're calling it Engineering, is so wide and vast, and we have aspirations of having it a much bigger segment over the next five years.

因此，我們對這一部分感到非常興奮。這就是我們開始將其劃分為三個不同營運部門和成長引擎的原因之一，因為這個特定的部門（我們稱之為工程部門）中蘊藏著巨大的機遇，我們希望在未來五年內讓它發展成為一個更大的部門。

Got it. Okay. Good color. Thank you. And then one other on Investment Management. You gave some good color about what's going on there. But I often hear from investors about just the spectacular amounts of money being raised by some of the super majors.

知道了。好的。顏色好。謝謝。另外一篇是關於投資管理的。您很好地描述了那裡發生的事情。但我常聽到投資者講述一些超級巨頭籌集到的巨額資金。

And I'm curious, from a competitive standpoint on fundraising, what differentiators are you seeing? Or what are you hearing from LPs about the appetite for a mid-tier Investment Management Partner such as yourselves? And just a few thoughts there.

我很好奇，從募款競賽的角度來看，您看到了哪些差異因素？或者您從 LP 那裡聽說了對於像您這樣的中型投資管理合夥人的興趣嗎？這只是一些想法。

I mean, you raised an excellent point, and I just want to reiterate some of the things that I've said and perhaps in a little bit of a different way. Let's start with we're a mid-market alternative asset manager. So we excel in mid-market transactions as opposed to the biggest types of transactions. Not that we can't do them, but our networks are such that -- and we believe that we can get better returns in the mid-market than in the large market. So that's one thing that I'd emphasize.

我的意思是，你提出了一個很好的觀點，我只是想重申我已經說過的一些事情，也許用稍微不同的方式。首先，我們是一家中型另類資產管理公司。因此，與最大類型的交易相比，我們在中型市場交易方面表現出色。並不是說我們做不到，而是我們的網路是這樣的——我們相信我們可以在中端市場比大型市場獲得更好的回報。這是我想強調的一點。

The other thing that has become clear as fundraising has softened for everybody, except for the larger players who have other advantages, so -- which -- so for example, some of the larger ones, you hear about all this money that they raised, but they're all -- or most of them are significantly in the insurance business. So as they raise capital, they include money that they're allocating for their insurance operations, to their investment management operations. So it skews the numbers.

另一件顯而易見的事情是，除了擁有其他優勢的大型參與者之外，所有參與者的籌資活動都變得輕鬆起來，例如，一些大型參與者，你聽說過他們籌集了這麼多資金，但他們全部或大多數都從事保險業務。因此，當他們籌集資金時，他們會將分配給保險業務的資金納入投資管理業務中。因此這會扭曲數字。

But in our particular case, and this is one of the reasons why we're accelerating our efforts, our largest division there is Harrison Street. But we have three other very significant investment management and operations, all led by exceptional business leaders, all have independent fundraising teams, and they all approach similar LPs and institutions looking for capital.

但在我們的特定情況下，這也是我們加快努力的原因之一，我們在那裡最大的部門是哈里森街。但我們還有其他三個非常重要的投資管理和營運部門，它們都由傑出的商業領袖領導，都有獨立的籌款團隊，而且他們都在接觸類似的 LP 和機構尋求資本。

And so bringing some of that together, some of that fundraising effort together, under one leadership team, for example, will give us, we believe, a significant competitive advantage, and is one of the reasons that's driving this move to streamline this business and get it ready for Phase 2 of its growth.

因此，將其中的一些內容（比如說，將一些籌款活動）整合到一個領導團隊的領導下，我們相信這將為我們帶來顯著的競爭優勢，這也是推動這一舉措以精簡業務並為第二階段的增長做好準備的原因之一。

It's already $100 billion in assets under management, or just under. It has exceptional results for LPs. It has tremendous leadership at every level. Our infrastructure business now is approximately 30% of our overall business, which is significant. Traditional real estate is, I think, only 20% or 22% of our business. The rest are -- is in alternatives.

其管理的資產已達到或略低於 1000 億美元。它為 LP 帶來了卓越的成果。它在各個層面都擁有卓越的領導力。我們的基礎設施業務現在約占我們整體業務的30％，這是相當重要的。我認為，傳統房地產僅占我們業務的 20% 或 22%。其餘的是--替代方案。

So we're in very, very interesting asset classes. And we are, to put it in my sort of way, we're a company-building right now. And we believe coming out of this, we will have an exceptional platform that will be positioned beautifully to continue to accelerate its growth in the years to come. And we're excited about the steps that we're going to take.

所以，我們處於非常非常有趣的資產類別。用我的方式來說，我們現在正在建造一家公司。我們相信，透過此次收購，我們將擁有一個卓越的平台，並在未來幾年佔據有利位置，繼續加速成長。我們對即將採取的措施感到非常興奮。

Having said that, as Christian already alluded to it, it's going to cost a little bit of money in 2025 to do that. And we're fully prepared to make the changes necessary and position ourselves for the next phase of growth. I hope that helps to provide some additional color that you're asking for, but it's exciting stuff and it's the type of things that strong and bold leadership have to do in order to create value for shareholders over the long-term, as we've done for many years.

話雖如此，正如克里斯蒂安已經提到的那樣，到 2025 年實現這一目標將需要花費一些錢。我們已做好充分準備，做出必要的改變，為下一階段的成長做好準備。我希望這有助於提供您所要求的一些額外信息，但這是令人興奮的事情，也是強大而大膽的領導層必須做的事情，以便為股東創造長期價值，正如我們多年來所做的那樣。

That's great color. Thanks very much, Jay. I'll hop back in the queue.

顏色真棒。非常感謝，傑伊。我將重新回到隊列中。

Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的朱利安布魯因 (Julien Blouin)。

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Jay, maybe still on Investment Management. You mentioned all of the streamlining and integration bolstering your optionality around the business. I guess, does this bring forward the feasibility of a spin-off or a sale of the business and sort of over what time frame are you sort of considering that? Do you need to see sort of Phase 2 of AUM growth and EBITDA growth before you would consider separating off the business?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。傑伊，也許仍從事投資管理。您提到所有的精簡和整合都增強了您在業務方面的可選性。我想，這是否帶來了分拆或出售業務的可行性，您會在什麼時間範圍內考慮這一點？在您考慮分離業務之前，您是否需要看到 AUM 成長和 EBITDA 成長的第二階段？

No decisions have been made around that. But surely putting this together the way it does creates that optionality. But yes, I think you're absolutely right. We need to see momentum. And we need to see sort of the step-up in revenue growth and profitability because, as you know, as new vintages hit the market, new products hit the market and we raise capital, that's really Phase 1.

目前尚未做出任何決定。但以這樣的方式把它們組合在一起肯定會產生這種可選性。但是是的，我認為你完全正確。我們需要看到動力。我們需要看到收入成長和獲利能力的提升，因為如你所知，隨著新年份葡萄酒、新產品進入市場以及我們籌集資金，這實際上是第一階段。

Phase 2 is, let's put that capital to work. in deals that are going to generate alpha. And once we see that happening, and we're comfortable that we have the momentum we want, we can then decide what the next steps are.

第二階段是，讓我們利用資本。在能產生阿爾法收益的交易中。一旦我們看到這種情況發生，我們確信我們擁有想要的動力，我們就可以決定下一步該怎麼做。

The other thing, and again, I'm probably going too far out of my skis here, but you'll understand, is that the optionality that it creates is not just potentially to spin this off, but also to bring together other strategies that might be a gap in our group of business or group of strategies today.

另一件事，再說一次，我可能在這裡說得太離譜了，但你會明白，它創造的可選性不僅僅是可能將其分拆出去，而且還會整合其他可能彌補我們當前業務組或戰略組缺陷的戰略。

So for example, we have a very small debt group. Debt is the hottest product right now. Not sure that debt is where we would necessarily want to be. Maybe two years ago, we would have wanted to be there. But it opens up lots of opportunity for others to join our crusade to create this wonderful business that we have. We have had several conversations with many people. And it's just the next step in the development of this very interesting mid-market alternate asset manager.

例如，我們的債務群體非常小。債務是目前最熱門的產品。不確定我們是否一定願意承擔債務。也許兩年前我們就想去那裡。但它為其他人加入我們的旅程以創造我們這項美好的事業提供了許多機會。我們已經和很多人進行了多次交談。這只是這個非常有趣的中階市場另類資產管理公司發展的下一步。

Thank you. That's really helpful. And then one more maybe on Capital Markets. When we think of this sort of drop-off in growth versus the relatively strong growth we saw in the fourth quarter, versus high-single digits sort of baked into guidance for 2025, I guess, how much of that is just sort of uncertainty and not knowing the unknowables, versus how much of that is real sort of drop-off you're seeing in current deal activity or have seen in December and January as sort of we got past some of this rate lock activity of September and October?

謝謝。這真的很有幫助。然後也許還有關於資本市場的話題。當我們想到這種成長下降與我們在第四季度看到的相對強勁的增長，以及 2025 年指引中的高個位數增長相比時，我想，其中有多少只是不確定性和對不可知因素的不了解，而其中有多少是您在當前交易活動中看到的或在 12 月和 1 月看到的實際下降，因為我們已經度過了 9 月和 10 月的一些鎖定活動？

Deal activity continues to be tracking reasonably well. However, you've got a lot of these macro things in the market that are causing uncertainty as we speak, trade policy issues and, of course, foreign exchange is another one that's a pretty meaningful headwind, 2% to 3% growth just from that.

交易活動持續保持良好的進展。然而，目前市場上有許多宏觀因素造成了不確定性，貿易政策問題，當然，外匯是另一個相當嚴重的阻力，僅憑這一點，經濟成長就可能達到 2% 到 3%。

So we're trying to take a cautious approach here on the full-year. We don't know how things are going to unwind. But we know we are well positioned. We have a stronger and bigger team than we've ever had in our Capital Markets business. And they are highly motivated and properly aligned to generate revenues. So we'll see. Hopefully, we outperform these -- the outlook that we put in front of you.

因此，我們在全年規劃上嘗試採取謹慎的態度。我們不知道事情將會如何發展。但我們知道我們處於有利地位。我們擁有一支比資本市場業務以往任何時候更強大、更大的團隊。他們積極性很高，並採取了適當的措施來創造收入。我們拭目以待。希望我們能夠超越這些——我們擺在你們面前的前景。

The other thing I would add to that is clients want to transact. They are -- our professionals are busier now than ever. Our debt capital people are busier now than ever. But they're not ready. Some are ready, but there's still a gap between buyers and sellers, interest rate fluctuations, longer-term debt. All of those things are impacting the decisions.

我想補充的另一件事是客戶想要進行交易。是的——我們的專業人員現在比以前更忙了。我們的債務資本人員現在比任何時候都更忙。但他們還沒準備好。有些人已經做好了準備，但買家和賣家之間仍然存在差距、利率波動、長期債務。所有這些因素都會影響決策。

So we have a buyer group that is keen to transact, but they're just not coming at the velocity that we were hoping that they were going to come. Now that could change very quickly. Every day we read things in the paper about the government's view on long-term interest rates versus short-term interest rates and so on. So we'll see what happens. But there is definitely a buying mentality out there right now, and we're hoping it translates.

因此，我們有一個熱衷於交易的買家群體，但他們的速度並沒有達到我們所希望的速度。但現在這種情況可能會很快改變。我們每天在報紙上都會讀到有關政府對長期利率與短期利率的看法等等。因此我們看看會發生什麼。但現在確實存在著一種購買心態，我們希望這種心態能夠改變。

Thank you. That's very helpful.

謝謝。這非常有幫助。

Jimmy Shan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Jimmy Shan。

Thank you. Sorry, just to follow-up on the investment management again. I thought your comments were interesting. And I just want to clarify, on the -- when you talked about the other optionality being sort of others joining the platform, I guess, is the thinking that once the fundraising and back office are integrated, it would be easier to do M&A for say, a mid-market credit asset manager to latch on to the platform, is that the thinking there?

謝謝。抱歉，只是想再跟進一下投資管理的情況。我認為你的評論很有趣。我只是想澄清一下，當您談到另一種選擇，即其他人加入該平台時，我想，是不是認為一旦融資和後台辦公室整合在一起，進行併購就會變得更容易，比如說，中端市場信貸資產管理公司就可以加入該平台，是這樣的想法嗎？

And then in terms of your investment that you're currently doing today, are you also sort of hiring personnel to position the platform to launch new products, new strategies? And for example, I saw Harrison Street close on a data center fund. Is that the sort of investment that you're making into the platform?

那麼就您目前正在進行的投資而言，您是否也在招募人員來定位平台以推出新產品、新策略？例如，我看到哈里森街 (Harrison Street) 關閉了一家資料中心基金。這就是您對該平台所做的投資嗎？

So the answer to the second question is yes. New products, people to drive those new products, Harrison Street as you say, has been successful with their first data center fund. They've been in the data center business for many years, but it's been part of their open-ended or closed-ended funds. So this is not a new product for them, but it's a new dedicated fund, which is interesting.

因此第二個問題的答案是肯定的。新產品、推動這些新產品的人，正如你所說，哈里森街 (Harrison Street) 的第一個資料中心基金已經獲得成功。他們從事資料中心業務多年，但這是其開放式或封閉式基金的一部分。所以這對他們來說不是一個新產品，而是一個新的專用基金，這很有趣。

All of the integration that I talked about, the streamlining that I talked about, has nothing to do really with new acquisitions joining the platform. We should be doing that in any way. It is to set us up to be a stand-alone business.

我談到的所有整合、精簡，實際上都與加入該平台的新收購無關。無論如何我們都應該這麼做。這是為了讓我們成為一家獨立的企業。

Right now, there's four different platforms that operate essentially independently, which was what our strategy was in 2018 when we began putting together this wonderful asset that we have buried in Colliers. So we're really accelerating now. Some of the earn-outs have all been -- most of the earn-outs, I think there's one left, have all been extinguished one way or the other. Most have been paid in full. So people have achieved certain targets.

目前，有四個不同的平台基本上是獨立經營，這正是我們在 2018 年開始整合埋藏在高力國際的這項寶貴資產時的策略。因此我們現在確實在加速發展。一些獲利支出已經全部——大多數獲利支出，我想還剩下一個，已經以某種方式全部消失了。大部分款項已全額支付。所以人們已經實現了某些目標。

But now is the time to bring them together and to really capitalize on the synergies. And the beauty is, in some respects, the softness in the marketplace has caused each of the teams to be much more open-minded about doing things together. And so we're excited about lots of discussion that's taking place. We've actioned a number of things, which you'll hear about in the coming months. And we're hopeful that coming out of '25, we will have a business that is more, I would say, unified than it currently is.

但現在是將它們聚集在一起並真正發揮協同效應的時候了。而美妙之處在於，從某些方面來說，市場的疲軟使得每個團隊都對共同做事更加開放。因此，我們對正在進行的大量討論感到非常興奮。我們已經採取了一些行動，您將在接下來的幾個月內聽到這些消息。我們希望，到了25年後，我們的業務將比現在更統一。

Okay. And then my second question is just on the $5 billion to $8 billion of fundraising expected for '25. What does your guidance assume for '25?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於25年預計籌集50億至80億美元的資金。您對 25 年的指導有何假設？

Well, that's Christian's guidance. I would say that the teams themselves believe they will be raising more capital than that. But that's the guidance that Christian (technical difficulty) --

嗯，這是克里斯蒂安的指導。我想說，這些團隊本身相信他們將籌集到比這更多的資金。但這是基督教的指導（技術難度）——

Jimmy, the numbers I quoted tie into our projections for revenue and EBITDA.

吉米，我引用的數字與我們的收入和 EBITDA 預測有關。

Okay. All right. I'm sorry, one last. You talked about these new vintage funds there. Can you talk about like how many funds are being launched and the target size of these new vintage funds?

好的。好的。抱歉，最後一次了。您在那裡談到了這些新的復古基金。您能談談將發行多少基金以及這些新基金的目標規模嗎？

I think there's five new vintage funds, meaning funds that have been in the marketplace before. There are several others that are new products like the Harrison Street data center Fund, for example. Basalt has created its own data its own solar and wind strategy, which is new for them, and also some infrastructure debt products that they're bringing to market.

我認為有五隻新的復古基金，也就是以前曾在市場上出現過的基金。還有其他一些新產品，例如哈里森街資料中心基金。Basalt 創建了自己的數據、自己的太陽能和風能策略，這對他們來說是一個新鮮事，他們也向市場推出了一些基礎設施債務產品。

Early days. But these are the types of products that their LPs and other investors have been asking for. This is expertise that they already have in-house, and they're natural extensions to their businesses. So in the case of Rockwood, as an example, they're expanding their multifamily funds, been very successful with that. And also their debt, primarily real estate debt initiatives, at our urging, are up considerably over the past 12 months.

初期。但這些正是他們的 LP 和其他投資者一直要求的產品類型。這是他們內部已有的專業知識，也是其業務的自然延伸。以 Rockwood 為例，他們正在擴大其多戶基金，並且取得了巨大成功。並且在我們的敦促下，他們的債務，主要是房地產債務計劃，在過去 12 個月大幅增加。

So lots of new things coming on stream. And then as you know, the new things do take time to mature in the marketplace. So you want to get them out there. There is generally three or four LPs that are keenly interested. And then we execute on a few transactions and hopefully build from there.

因此有許多新事物湧現。正如你所知，新事物確實需要時間在市場上成熟。所以你想把它們帶到那裡。通常有三到四張 LP 會引起人們的濃厚興趣。然後我們執行一些交易並希望從那裡開始。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Himanshu Gupta, Scotia Bank.

蘇格蘭銀行的 Himanshu Gupta。

Thank you and good morning. So first on the Real Estate Services, I think you mentioned mid-single digit growth for this year. Does that already include 2% to 3% negative impact from FX?

謝謝你，早安。首先關於房地產服務，我認為您提到了今年的中等個位數成長。這是否已經包括了外匯帶來的 2% 至 3% 的負面影響？

Yes, Himanshu. It's net -- that's net of the negative foreign exchange impact. We're showing you numbers that we expect to deliver based on today's prevailing FX rates.

是的，Himanshu。這是淨額－即扣除負面外匯影響後的淨額。我們向您展示的是我們預計根據今天的現行外匯匯率提供的數字。

Got it. Okay. And do you think Real Estate Services is the segment where you are most impacted on an FX front? I mean, IM probably the least and like Engineering somewhere in the middle?

知道了。好的。您是否認為房地產服務是外匯方面對您影響最大的領域？我的意思是，IM 可能最不重要，而工程則處於中間位置？

Himanshu, IM is the least impacted by foreign exchange. The majority of the funds there are denominated in US dollars and the fees are denominated in US dollars. But I would say that Real Estate Services and Engineering each have 50% of their revenues in currencies other than US dollars. So these are operations in Canada, Australia, Europe, the UK. So these currencies are all being devalue grout in the US dollar today. And that's what we're talking about.

印度希曼舒 (Himanshu) 受外匯影響最小。那裡的大部分基金都是以美元計價的，費用也是以美元計價的。但我想說的是，房地產服務和工程各自的收入中，有 50% 是以美元以外的貨幣獲得的。這些是在加拿大、澳洲、歐洲和英國開展的業務。所以今天這些貨幣相對於美元來說都在貶值。這就是我們正在談論的。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then on the capital markets, and thanks for the commentary so far. But is it fair to say that it's becoming another second half story? I mean, your assumption of high-single digit, is it like mostly in the back half in terms of recovery and maybe a slower first half?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後談論資本市場，感謝您迄今為止的評論。但是否可以說這正在成為另一個後半部的故事呢？我的意思是，您假設的高個位數，是否主要是在後半段的恢復，而上半段可能會比較慢？

Well, I mean, Himanshu, the business historically is seasonal toward the fourth quarter. That's just the way the industry operates. So we're going to see outsized growth in the fourth quarter. So I think that's something to keep in mind here.

嗯，我的意思是，Himanshu，從歷史上看，我們的業務在第四季度具有季節性。這就是這個行業的運作方式。因此我們將在第四季度看到超高速的成長。所以我認為這是需要牢記的事情。

We're cautiously optimistic that we'll have Capital Markets growth in each quarter of a meaningful amount, but we'll have to wait and see. But that skew towards the fourth quarter is a natural part of the business.

我們謹慎樂觀地認為，每季資本市場都會實現有意義的成長，但我們也必須拭目以待。但向第四季度的傾斜是業務的自然組成部分。

Okay. Fair enough. And then on the Investment Management, and I think $5 billion to $8 billion of new capital to raise. Do you expect some reduction here as well? Any end-of-life funds still offset this kind of capital raise in your mid-single digit assumption?

好的。很公平。然後是投資管理，我認為需要籌集 50 億到 80 億美元的新資本。您預計這裡也會減少嗎？在您中等個位數的假設中，任何臨終基金是否仍能抵銷這種資本籌資？

Yes. I mean, Himanshu in our thinking here, we do expect our AUM to increase through the year. We're just shy of $100 billion. We expect at some point during 2025 to meaningfully pop through that $100 billion level. So I think the fundraising will be additive to that, of course. Mark-to-market activity, we expect, will be positive. It was positive in almost all cases in Q4.

是的。我的意思是，Himanshu 在我們的想法中，我們確實預計我們的 AUM 將在全年增加。我們還差一點就達到 1000 億美元了。我們預計，在 2025 年的某個時候，這一數字將大幅突破 1000 億美元的大關。因此我認為募款當然會對此起到補充作用。我們預計，以市價計價的活動將會產生正面的影響。在第四季度中，幾乎所有情況都是正面的。

We expect that to -- those markets to level off and to increase -- continue to increase during 2020 and redemption activity, our queues are getting smaller in terms of redemption activity. It's been modest in 2024, but we expect it to be more modest even in 2025. So all those things, I think, point to growth in AUM for 2025.

我們預計，這些市場將在 2020 年趨於平穩並繼續增加，贖回活動也將增加，就贖回活動而言，我們的隊列將越來越小。2024 年的成長速度已經比較溫和，但我們預期 2025 年的成長速度會更加溫和。因此，我認為，所有這些都預示著 2025 年 AUM 將成長。

Thank you. That's very helpful. And maybe the last question is on the -- I mean, it looks like you're looking at the M&A in the segment, in the Investment Management. How are the private market valuations trending for the kind of product or the kind of capabilities you're looking to add in this platform?

謝謝。這非常有幫助。也許最後一個問題是關於——我的意思是，看起來您正在關注投資管理領域的併購。對於您希望在這個平台上添加的產品或功能，私人市場估值趨勢如何？

Jay, he's asking about M&A in the Investment Management segment and also pricing for transactions in that segment.

傑伊，他詢問的是投資管理領域的併購情況以及該領域的交易定價。

Yes, I'm having trouble hearing. I'm having trouble hearing. Investment in the acquisition opportunities in the Investment Management space have been very, very buoyant. There's lots of people in the marketplace looking to buy assets, making it very competitive, forcing prices up. And that's one of the reasons why we haven't pulled the trigger just yet on anything. Not to say that we wouldn't get the right opportunity presented itself.

是的，我聽不清楚。我聽不清楚。投資管理領域的收購機會投資一直非常活躍。市場上有許多人想要購買資產，因此競爭非常激烈，導致價格上漲。這就是我們至今未採取任何行動的原因之一。這並不是說我們不會有合適的機會出現。

But as you could see, four or five years ago, you never saw the larger players in the market making acquisitions. Over the past three, four years, you're seeing almost all of them in the marketplace making acquisitions, some large, some small. Insurance companies have now entered the fray. And so when I say there's lots of people looking at our platform and inquiring about our platform, I'm trying to downplay the level of interest that we see.

但正如你所看到的，四、五年前，你從未見過市場上的大型參與者進行收購。在過去的三、四年裡，你可以看到幾乎所有的公司都在市場上進行收購，有的規模大，有的規模小。保險公司現已加入競爭。因此，當我說有很多人在關注我們的平台並詢問我們的平台時，我試圖淡化我們看到的興趣程度。

So the segment is going through a transformation in some respects, and we're very fortunate to be where we are, and we're very fortunate to have started this in -- really in 2018, to build the platform that we have and the teams that we have. So we're really quite looking forward to the next few years to see how that plays out.

因此，該領域在某些方面正在經歷轉型，我們很幸運能夠處於目前的境地，我們很幸運能夠在 2018 年開始這一進程，建立我們擁有的平台和團隊。因此，我們非常期待未來幾年的發展。

Thank you, Jay, and super helpful. And I'll jump back.

謝謝你，傑伊，非常有幫助。然後我就跳回去。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back to Mr. Jay Hennick for any closing remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給傑伊·亨尼克先生，請他做最後發言。

Thank you very much, operator. This was a full call, obviously. And we appreciate you taking the time to participate and look forward to meeting again at the first quarter results of 2025. So thanks for participating.

非常感謝，接線生。顯然，這是一次滿員的通話。我們感謝您抽出時間參加，並期待在 2025 年第一季業績發表會上再次相聚。感謝您的參與。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participation and have a nice day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與並祝您有愉快的一天。