Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, my name is Michelle, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q1 2018 investor call. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,我是Michelle,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線生。現在,我謹代表會議歡迎各位參加2018年第一季投資者電話會議。 (接線生操作說明)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Stefan Anninger, please go ahead.

    現在我想把電話交給斯特凡·安寧格先生,請開始吧。

  • Stefan Anninger - VP of IR

    Stefan Anninger - VP of IR

  • Good morning, and welcome to Charter's First Quarter 2018 Investor Call. The presentation that accompanies this call can be found on our website, ir.charter.com, under the Financial Information section.

    早安,歡迎參加Charter公司2018年第一季投資人電話會議。本次電話會議的簡報可在本公司網站ir.charter.com的「財務資訊」欄位下找到。

  • Before we proceed, I would like to remind you that there are a number of risk factors and other cautionary statements contained in our SEC filings including our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. We will not review those risk factors and other cautionary statements on this call, however, we encourage you to read them carefully.

    在繼續之前,我想提醒各位,我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件(包括我們最新的10-K和10-Q表格)中包含一些風險因素和其他警示性聲明。本次電話會議我們不會對此類風險因素和其他警示性聲明進行詳細討論,但我們鼓勵各位仔細閱讀。

  • Various remarks that we make on this call concerning expectations, predictions, plans and prospects constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from historical or anticipated results. Any forward-looking statements reflect management's current view only, and Charter undertakes no obligation to revise or update such statements or to make additional forward-looking statements in the future.

    我們在本次電話會議中就預期、預測、計畫和前景所作的各種表述均構成前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響,可能導致實際結果與歷史結果或預期結果有差異。任何前瞻性陳述僅反映管理階層目前的觀點,Charter公司不承擔任何義務修訂或更新此類陳述,也不承擔未來作出其他前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • During the course of today's call, we will be referring to non-GAAP measures as defined and reconciled in our earnings materials. These non-GAAP measures, as defined by Charter, may not be comparable to measures with similar titles used by other companies.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及盈利文件中定義和調整的非GAAP財務指標。這些由Charter定義的非GAAP財務指標可能與其他公司使用的類似名稱的指標不具可比性。

  • Please also note that all growth rates noted on this call and in the presentation are calculated on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise specified. Additionally, all customer and passings data that you see in today's material continue to be based on legacy company definitions.

    另請注意,除非另有說明,本次電話會議和簡報中提及的所有成長率均按同比計算。此外,您在今天資料中看到的所有客戶和過路人數資料仍然基於公司先前的定義。

  • Joining me on today's call are Tom Rutledge, Chairman and CEO; and Chris Winfrey, our CFO.

    今天和我一起參加電話會議的有董事長兼執行長湯姆·拉特利奇,以及財務長克里斯·溫弗瑞。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

    這樣,我就把電話交給湯姆了。

  • Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

    Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Stefan. In the first quarter, our primary objective was to continue to integrate our operations and prepare to launch mobile. Our all-digital initiative is moving forward and is on schedule for completion by this year-end.

    謝謝斯特凡。第一季度,我們的首要目標是繼續整合運營,並為行動端的上線做好準備。我們的全數位轉型計畫正在穩步推進,預計今年年底前按計劃完成。

  • At the end of the first quarter, approximately 20% of legacy Time Warner Cable and 60% of Bright House Network continue to carry full analog video lineups, with TWC though improving from approximately 40% at the end of the year 2016. The whole company will be fully digitized by end of this year as we deploy fully functioning 2-way digital set-top boxes, mostly our Worldbox and all remaining analog TV outlets that we serve.

    第一季末,約有20%的傳統時代華納有線電視用戶和60%的Bright House Network用戶仍在提供完整的類比視訊服務,不過時代華納有線電視的比例較2016年底的約40%有所改善。到今年年底,隨著我們部署功能齊全的雙向數位機上盒(主要為我們的Worldbox機上盒以及我們服務的所有其他模擬電視服務點),整個公司將實現全面數位化。

  • But while all-digital is on track, it is disruptive, both to our operations and to our customers. It creates large volume of short-term activity, which is inconsistent with our long-term operating strategy of reducing transactional volume. The all-digital project though is clearly in the long-term interest of our business, it allows us to free up bandwidth and to realize the full potential and capacity of our network as well as further improve the video product itself.

    儘管全數位轉型正在按計劃進行,但它對我們的營運和客戶都造成了一定的干擾。它會產生大量的短期業務活動,這與我們降低交易量的長期營運策略相悖。然而,全數位化專案顯然符合我們業務的長期利益,它能夠幫助我們釋放頻寬,充分發揮網路的潛力和容量,並進一步提升視訊產品本身的品質。

  • In the fourth quarter, we prepared the expansion of our gigabit speed offering to several new markets and launched those markets just a few days ago. We now offer gigabit service to approximately 23 million passings, about 45% of our total footprint and expect to have gigabit service available to virtually all of our footprint by year-end.

    第四季度,我們為將千兆寬頻服務拓展至多個新市場做好了準備,並於數天前正式上線。目前,我們已為約2,300萬個路段提供千兆寬頻服務,約占我們總覆蓋範圍的45%。我們預計到年底,千兆寬頻服務將覆蓋我們幾乎所有覆蓋區域。

  • Also this month, we raised the minimum Spectrum Internet speed to 200 megabits in a number of additional markets with no additional cost to customers. We're raising our Internet speeds faster than originally planned in order to maintain a superior competitive position. We've compressed our capital spend to raise speeds and to launch 3.1 across our footprint and our strategy is working. In the markets where we launched 200 megabits as our minimum speed in December, sales are up, churn is down, net additions have improved year-over-year, consistent with our experience with previous speed increases. Today, over 50% of our Internet customer subscribe to tiers that provide 100 megabits or more throughput. We don't offer anything less to new Internet customers and it's now a 200 megabit of minimum offering nearly 1/4 of our footprint.

    本月,我們在多個市場將Spectrum網路的最低網路速度提升至200兆位元,且不向客戶收取額外費用。為了保持卓越的競爭優勢,我們加快了網速提升速度,超過了原計劃。我們壓縮了用於提升網路速度和在覆蓋區域內推出3.1版本的資本支出,目前這項策略行之有效。在12月將最低網路速度提升至200兆位元的市場,銷售額有所成長,用戶流失率下降,淨新增用戶數量也較去年同期成長,這與我們以往網路速度提升的經驗相符。如今,超過50%的網路用戶訂閱了100兆位元或更高網路速度的套餐。我們不會提供新用戶低於此網路速度的套餐,目前200兆位元的最低網路速度已覆蓋我們近四分之一的覆蓋區域。

  • Rollout of Spectrum pricing and packaging remains on track. As of the end of the first quarter, 55% of Time Warner Cable and Bright House customers were in our new Spectrum pricing and packaging, which reflects the pace of integration in migration prospective. Over time, we expect Spectrum-branded products to drive continued higher sales and longer customer lives.

    Spectrum定價和套餐的推廣工作進展順利。截至第一季末,時代華納有線電視和Bright House旗下55%的客戶已採用新的Spectrum定價和套餐,這反映了遷移整合的進度。我們預計,隨著時間的推移,Spectrum品牌產品將持續推動銷售成長,並延長客戶生命週期。

  • In the first quarter, we continued to see year-over-year improvement in sales in connect volumes, although higher year-over-year churn offset the higher sales volumes. Higher churn has been a result of some customer service system changes we've been making as part of our large and complex integration. While we are not executing a billing migration, last year we collapsed 13 service environments based on our billing systems into 4 using our software isolation layer. In 2018, those 4 service environments were moved to 2. That integration execution, which will result in quality, uniform services and efficiencies, impacted both our customer qualification and collection process, both resulting in higher nonpay disconnects and bad debt. We corrected those processes, however, and both nonpays and bad debt should be back to planned levels by the end of the second quarter.

    第一季度,連結量銷售額持續年增,但年比上升的客戶流失率抵銷了銷售額的成長。客戶流失率上升是由於我們為進行大規模複雜整合而對客戶服務系統進行的一些變更所致。雖然我們並未進行計費系統遷移,但去年我們利用軟體隔離層將基於計費系統的 13 個服務環境合併為 4 個。 2018 年,這 4 個服務環境又合併為 2 個。此次整合旨在提升服務品質、統一性和效率,但也影響了我們的客戶資格審核和收款流程,導致未付款斷網率和壞帳增加。不過,我們已修正了這些流程,預計到第二季末,未付款和壞帳都將恢復到預期水準。

  • Despite that self-inflicted disruption we've grown total Internet customers by 1.2 million or over 5% in the last year. And in the quarter, we grew revenue by 4.9% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA EBITDA by 6.8%, excluding mobile start-up costs.

    儘管受到自身因素的影響,我們去年網路用戶總數仍增加了120萬,增幅超過5%。本季度,我們的營收年增4.9%,調整後EBITDA(不計行動業務啟動成本)較去年同期成長6.8%。

  • Turning to mobile, we remain on track to launch our new services in the middle of this year under our MVNO agreement with Verizon. We recently launched a field trial, which includes 5,000 employees who are going through an end-to-end sales activation of service process in May. And we are building out our sales channel and service capabilities, including modifying several hundred of our 700 retail stores and setting up the call center environment. Ultimately, the goal is to use our mobile service to attract and retain our cable-bundled multiproduct customers.

    在行動業務方面,我們仍按計劃於今年年中根據與Verizon的MVNO協議推出新服務。我們近期啟動了一項現場測試,5,000名員工將於5月完成端到端的服務啟動流程。同時,我們也積極拓展銷售通路與服務能力,包括改造旗下700家零售門市中的數百家,並搭建呼叫中心環境。最終目標是利用行動服務吸引並留住已購買有線電視捆綁式多產品服務的客戶。

  • And the partnership we signed with Comcast last week will accelerate our ability to scale our MVNO service offerings by stepping into a proven MVNO back-office platform and improve the economics of our emerging mobile business. While our entry into mobile is new, we're already a wireless operator today with over 250 million of syndicated wireless devices connected to our deployed small-cell network. Our infrastructure design provides us with the unique opportunity to build the businesses based on how consumers use the service, what I call them inside out wireless strategy.

    我們上週與康卡斯特簽署的合作協議將加速我們擴大MVNO服務規模的能力,因為我們將藉助其成熟的MVNO後台平台,並提升我們新興行動業務的經濟效益。雖然我們涉足行動領域尚屬新領域,但我們目前已是一家無線營運商,擁有超過2.5億台無線設備連接到我們部署的小型基地台網路。我們的基礎設施設計為我們提供了一個獨特的機會,讓我們能夠根據消費者使用服務的方式來建立業務,我稱之為「由內而外的無線策略」。

  • In addition to the continued advancements in WiFi, throughput and latency, we're testing in various bands, including 28 gigahertz and 3.5 gigahertz, which are going well and support our thesis that small cells using unlicensed and licensed Spectrum including Big Bend Spectrum like 3.5 gigahertz, working together with our widely deployed power and terrestrial network and combined with the DOCSIS products like Full Duplex and coherent optics will allow us to offer high-capacity, low-latency connectivity products, both inside and outside the home, fixed, wireless and mobile and with and without our superior video applications. Ultimately, our strength as a connectivity provider comes from our powerful, easy-to-upgrade network. Its unique design allows to the most cost-effective deployment of new technologies, which will drive massive increases in the amount of data we can drive through that network. And over time, we will open up opportunities for new products.

    除了在WiFi、吞吐量和延遲方面持續取得進展之外,我們還在多個頻段進行測試,包括28 GHz和3.5 GHz頻段。這些測試進展順利,印證了我們的論點:利用免許可和許可頻譜(包括3.5 GHz等大彎區頻譜)的小型基站,結合我們廣泛部署的電力和地面網絡,以及DOCSIS產品(例如全雙工和相干光通信),將使我們能夠提供高容量、低延遲的連接產品,涵蓋室內外、固定、無線和相干光通信),將使我們能夠提供高容量、低延遲的連接產品,涵蓋室內外、固定、無線和應用最終,我們作為連接服務提供者的優勢源於我們強大且易於升級的網路。其獨特的設計能夠以最具成本效益的方式部署新技術,從而大幅提升我們網路的資料傳輸能力。隨著時間的推移,我們將為新產品的開發創造更多機會。

  • Now, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

    現在,我把電話交給克里斯。

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Tom. Before covering our results, a few administrative items.

    謝謝,湯姆。在公佈結果之前,先處理幾件行政事務。

  • First, we have reclassed all inbound sales and retention expense from cost to service customers, to marketing expense for current and prior periods. We already provided a pro forma change schedule in our fourth quarter materials.

    首先,我們將所有入站銷售和客戶維繫費用從客戶服務成本重新分類為行銷費用,涵蓋當期和前期。我們已在第四季資料中提供了變更預估表。

  • Also a reminder that when discussing first quarter customer results, I'll be comparing these results to the first quarter of 2017 results that have been adjusted to exclude seasonal program customer activity in the first quarter 2017 at Legacy Bright House. That comparison is on Slide 6 of today's investor presentation. This is the last time we need to compare year-over-year quarters for these adjustments since we're now beyond the 1-year mark from the seasonal program change.

    另外提醒一下,在討論第一季客戶業績時,我會將這些業績與2017年第一季的業績進行比較。 2017年第一季的業績經過調整,剔除了Legacy Bright House在2017年第一季季節性專案客戶活動的影響。此比較結果在今日投資人簡報的第6頁。由於季節性專案調整至今已超過一年,因此這是我們最後一次需要進行同比季度比較。

  • Customer statistics that you see in today's materials continue to be based on legacy company definitions. And in the second quarter of this year, we'll reclass customer stats and our trending schedules using consistent definitions across all 3 legacy entities. The largest differences will be in TWC and Bright House classification of customer types, particularly universities, moving between residential today where they're reported on the doors basis, and commercial accounts which will be reported on physical sites.

    您今天在資料中看到的客戶統計數據仍然是基於公司以往的定義。今年第二季度,我們將使用統一的定義對所有三個原有實體的客戶統計數據和趨勢圖表進行重新分類。最大的變化將體現在TWC和Bright House對客戶類型的分類上,特別是大學客戶。目前,住宅客戶的數據按門牌號碼統計,而商業客戶的數據將按實際辦公地點統計。

  • TWC and Bright House also reported SMB and enterprise-based on billing relationships, and these will convert to a physical sites methodology.

    TWC 和 Bright House 也報告了基於中小企業和企業的計費關係,這些關係將轉變為基於實體站點的計費方法。

  • When we report our second quarter results, we'll report on the uniform definitions for Q2 and prior periods with the reconciliation schedule.

    在公佈第二季業績時,我們將按照第二季及以前期間的統一定義,並附上對帳表。

  • In the third quarter of this year, I expect we'll only report consolidated operating statistics and revenue results. At closing, we said we will report at least 5 quarters of legacy entity top line results following the close of our transactions. The second quarter of this year will be the ninth time we've reported legacy entity results.

    今年第三季度,我預計我們將隻公佈合併後的營運統計數據和營收業績。在交易完成時,我們曾表示將在交易完成後至少公佈五個季度原有實體的營收業績。今年第二季將是我們第九次公佈原有實體的業績。

  • Finally, starting on January 1 of this year, we prospectively adopted FASB's new revenue recognition standard. There are a number of relatively small adjustments in the quarter related to the adoption of the standard, both in revenue and expenses, but in total had no material impact to revenue or adjusted EBITDA recorded this quarter.

    最後,自今年1月1日起,我們開始前瞻性地採用FASB新的收入確認準則。本季因採用該準則,收入和費用均出現了一些較小的調整,但總體而言,這些調整對本季度確認的收入或調整後EBITDA並沒有產生重大影響。

  • Now turning to our results. And total customer relationships grew by 261,000 in the first quarter and grew 890,000 over the last 12 months with 3.1% growth at TWC, 3.4% at Legacy Charter and 4.6% at Bright House.

    現在來看我們的業績。第一季客戶關係總數增加了 26.1 萬,過去 12 個月增加了 89 萬,其中 TWC 增加了 3.1%,Legacy Charter 增加了 3.4%,Bright House 增加了 4.6%。

  • Including residential and SMB, video declined by 112,000 in the quarter, Internet grew by 362,000 and voice declined by 25,000.

    包括住宅用戶和中小企業用戶在內,本季視訊用戶減少了 112,000 人次,網路用戶增加了 362,000 人次,語音用戶減少了 25,000 人次。

  • 55% of residential TWC and Bright House customers were in Spectrum pricing and packaging at the end of the first quarter.

    第一季末,TWC 和 Bright House 的住宅用戶中有 55% 採用了 Spectrum 的定價和套餐服務。

  • Customer connects were higher year-over-year, including our new markets. Disconnects were also up year-over-year, reflecting the nonlinear progression of net adds I've often spoke about. TWC was the largest driver of higher year-over-year disconnects, the key drivers were higher nonpay disconnects from integration-related system changes that Tom mentioned where we have since conformed to the customer qualification and collection process to our standard policies.

    客戶連線數較去年同期成長,包括我們新開拓的市場。但斷網數也較去年同期成長,這反映了我之前多次提到的淨新增客戶數量非線性成長的趨勢。 TWC是導致斷網數年成長的最大因素,其主要原因是Tom提到的與系統整合相關的變更導致的未付款斷網數增加。我們目前已將客戶資格審查和收款流程調整為符合標準政策。

  • And nonpay disconnect and associated bad debt should be back to normal rates by the end of Q2, which practically means the beginning of Q3.

    到第二季末(實際上就是第三季初),未付款斷網和相關的壞帳率應該會恢復正常水準。

  • We also had continued roll off churn from legacy packages. These factors had a declining impact on our results as the quarter progressed. We should continue to have less of the monthly impact as we progress through Q2.

    我們也面臨舊版軟體包持續淘汰帶來的用戶流失。隨著季度推進,這些因素對我們業績的影響也逐漸減弱。預計在第二季度,這些因素對月度業績的影響將持續下降。

  • Slide 6 shows we grew residential PSUs by 157,000 versus 338,000 last year. Over the last year, TWC residential video customers declined by 2.3%, video Charter declined by 1.5% and Legacy Bright House video was 0.3% lower year-over-year.

    投影片6顯示,我們住宅用戶數增加了15.7萬,去年同期為33.8萬。過去一年,TWC住宅視訊用戶下降了2.3%,Charter視訊用戶下降了1.5%,而Bright House(原名)視訊用戶則較去年同期下降了0.3%。

  • In the quarter, TWC residential video customers declined by about 90,000, with higher additions offset by higher nonpay disconnects.

    本季度,TWC 住宅視訊用戶減少了約 9 萬,新增用戶增加被未付費斷網用戶增加所抵銷。

  • Legacy Charter lost 32,000 residential video customers in the quarter versus a loss of 13,000 a year ago.

    與去年同期相比,Legacy Charter 在本季流失了 32,000 名住宅視訊用戶,而去年同期流失了 13,000 名。

  • Additional competitive build-out and less year-over-year benefit from a struggling competitor kept sales relatively flat at Legacy Charter.

    由於競爭對手的擴張以及業績下滑導致的同比收益減少,Legacy Charter 的銷售額保持相對穩定。

  • Bright House video customers were flat during the quarter versus a gain of 13,000 last year.

    本季 Bright House 視訊用戶數量與去年同期持平,而去年同期則增加了 13,000 人。

  • In residential Internet, we added a total of 331,000 customers versus 416,000 last year, with higher nonpay disconnects, for the reasons I mentioned, responsible for all of the year-over-year decline in Internet net adds at Legacy TWC.

    在住宅網路方面,我們新增了 331,000 名用戶,而去年為 416,000 名,但由於我之前提到的原因,非付費斷網用戶數量有所增加,這也是導致 Legacy TWC 網路淨新增用戶數量同比下降的原因。

  • Total company Internet sales were higher year-over-year and in the 17% of our footprint, where we offer 200 megabits per second is our minimum speed as of the beginning of Q1, there was year-over-year improvement in both sales and net additions.

    公司網路總銷售額年增,在我們覆蓋範圍的 17% 的區域內(截至第一季初,我們提供的最低速度為每秒 200 兆位元),銷售額和淨新增用戶數均較去年同期成長。

  • As Tom mentioned, we now offer 200 megabits per second as our minimum Internet speed in nearly 25% of our footprint, and we offer gigabit service in approximately 45% of our footprint and expect to have gigabit service available nearly everywhere by the end of 2018.

    正如 Tom 所提到的,我們現在在近 25% 的服務區域內提供每秒 200 兆比特的最低互聯網速度,在約 45% 的服務區域內提供千兆服務,並預計到 2018 年底,千兆服務將覆蓋幾乎所有地區。

  • Over the last 12 months, we grew our total residential Internet customer base by 1.1 million customers to 4.9%, with 4.8% growth at TWC, 4.9% growth at Legacy Charter and 5.9% at Bright House.

    在過去的 12 個月裡,我們的住宅網路用戶總數增加了 110 萬,佔比達到 4.9%,其中 TWC 增加了 4.8%,Legacy Charter 增加了 4.9%,Bright House 增加了 5.9%。

  • In voice, we lost 52,000 residential customers versus a gain of 30,000 last year, driven by fewer additions and higher churn of legacy packages and nonpay churn at TWC.

    在語音業務方面,我們流失了 52,000 名住宅用戶,而去年同期則增加了 30,000 名,這主要是由於新增用戶減少、傳統套餐流失率上升以及 TWC 的未付費用戶流失率上升所致。

  • As we've said before, our progress towards better customer growth will not be linear. We do, however, expect to -- we continue to expect higher sales and better retention over time as a higher portion of our base is now in Spectrum, we upgrade our video and Internet capabilities, our service delivery and platform improves and as we work throughout the integration.

    正如我們之前所說,客戶成長的進程並非線性發展。然而,我們預期——隨著我們越來越多的客戶加入Spectrum,隨著我們視頻和互聯網功能的升級,隨著服務交付和平台的改進,以及整合工作的推進,我們將繼續期待更高的銷售額和更好的客戶留存率。

  • Over the last year, we grew total residential customers by 739,000 or 2.9%. Residential revenue per customer relationship grew by 1.6% year-over-year, given the lower rate, of SPP migration, promotional campaign roll-off and some minor rate adjustments, partly offset by higher levels of Internet-only customers and better sales we sell-in at promotional rates.

    過去一年,我們的住宅用戶總數增加了 73.9 萬,增幅為 2.9%。由於 SPP 遷移率降低、促銷活動結束以及一些小幅的價格調整,每位住宅用戶關係的收入同比增長了 1.6%,但部分被互聯網用戶數量的增加以及我們以促銷價格銷售的更好產品所抵消。

  • Slide 7 shows our customer growth combined with our ARPU growth resulted in year-over-year residential revenue growth of 4.8%.

    投影片 7 顯示,我們的客戶成長與 ARPU 成長相結合,使得住宅收入較去年同期成長 4.8%。

  • Total commercial revenue, SMB and enterprise combined, grew by 5.3%, with SMB up 4.1% and enterprise up by 7.3%. Excluding cell backhaul and NaviSite, enterprise grew by close to 11%. Sales were up in both SMB and enterprise, with SMB PSU net adds at TWC and Bright House up over 10% in the first quarter versus last year. Our revenue growth in the TWC and Bright House market hasn't yet followed the unit growth, and it won't until we get the transition to more competitive pricing of both our SMB and enterprise products.

    中小企業和企業級業務的總商業收入成長了5.3%,其中中小企業成長4.1%,企業級業務成長7.3%。若不計入蜂窩回傳和NaviSite業務,企業級業務成長接近11%。中小企業和企業級業務的銷售額均有所成長,TWC和Bright House的中小企業電源單元淨增量在第一季較去年同期成長超過10%。我們在TWC和Bright House市場的營收成長尚未跟上銷售成長,只有在我們的中小企業和企業級產品價格更具競爭力之後,這一成長才會實現。

  • We expect that ARPU offset will continue through 2018 and the revenue growth will ultimately following the unit growth.

    我們預計 ARPU 抵銷現象將持續到 2018 年,營收成長最終將跟隨銷售成長。

  • First quarter advertising revenue grew by 5.6% year-over-year, driven mostly by higher political. In total, first quarter revenue for the company was up 4.9% year-over-year and 4.8% when excluding advertising.

    第一季廣告營收年增5.6%,主要得益於政治廣告收入的成長。公司第一季總營收年增4.9%,若不計廣告收入,則較去年同期成長4.8%。

  • Looking at total revenue growth, excluding advertising in each of our legacy companies, TWC revenue grew by 4.6%, pre-deal Charter grew by 5.2% and Bright House revenue grew by 5.0%.

    從總收入成長來看,不包括我們各傳統公司的廣告收入,TWC 的收入成長了 4.6%,交易前的 Charter 的收入成長了 5.2%,Bright House 的收入成長了 5.0%。

  • Moving to operating expenses on Slide 8. In the first quarter, total operating expenses grew by $254 million or 3.9% year-over-year. Programming increased 5.7% year-over-year, driven by contractual rate increases in renewals and a higher expanded customer base and mix, partly offset by improved revenue benefit. Excluding the onetime benefit this year, programming would have grown by 6.5% year-over-year or approximately 8% per video customer.

    接下來是投影片 8 的營運費用部分。第一季度,總營運費用年增 2.54 億美元,增幅為 3.9%。節目製作費用年增 5.7%,主要得益於續約合約價格上漲以及客戶群和客戶類型的擴大,但部分被收入成長所抵消。若不計入今年的一次性收益,節目製作費用將年增 6.5%,即每位視訊客戶約成長 8%。

  • Regulatory, connectivity and produced content grew by 7% primarily driven by our adoption of the new revenue recognition standard on January 1, which also reclassed approximately $15 million of cost to this expense line in the quarter.

    監管、連接和內容製作增長了 7%,這主要是由於我們在 1 月 1 日採用了新的收入確認準則,該準則還在本季度將大約 1500 萬美元的成本重新分類到該費用項下。

  • Cost to service customers grew by 3% year-over-year, driven by the higher bad debt expense for the reasons I described. Excluding the temporary impact of higher bad debt expense, we are lowering our cost to service through changes in business practices and seeing early productivity benefits from insourcing, all while growing our customer base and investing in more insourcing and training.

    客戶服務成本年增3%,主要原因是壞帳支出增加,具體原因如上所述。撇開壞帳支出增加帶來的暫時性影響,我們正透過業務流程的調整降低服務成本,並已初步感受到內部化帶來的生產力提升。同時,我們也不斷擴大客戶群,並增加對內部化和培訓的投入。

  • Marketing expenses declined by 1.8% year-over-year as the prior year period included certain transition cost and with or without that effect, our marketing and sales expenses are more efficient on higher sales.

    由於去年同期包含一定的過渡成本,行銷費用較去年同期下降了 1.8%。無論是否受到該因素的影響,隨著銷售額的提高,我們的行銷和銷售費用效率更高。

  • And all other expenses were up 2.7% year-over-year, driven by higher ad sales cost, enterprise and product development cost, offset by lower overhead cost.

    其他所有支出較去年同期成長 2.7%,主要原因是廣告銷售成本、企業和產品開發成本增加,但被較低的管理費用所抵銷。

  • Excluding mobile, adjusted EBITDA grew by 6.8% in the first quarter. The impact of the new revenue recognition standard and a few onetime and out-of-period items, including the programming item I mentioned, essentially offset each other. When including $8 million of clearly defined mobile start-up expenses, our adjusted EBITDA grew by 6.5%.

    剔除行動業務後,第一季調整後 EBITDA 成長 6.8%。新的收入確認準則以及一些一次性項目和非週期性項目(包括我之前提到的程式設計項目)的影響基本上相互抵消。若計入 800 萬美元明確的行動業務啟動費用,我們的調整後 EBITDA 成長 6.5%。

  • Turning to net income on Slide 9. We generated $168 million of net income attributable to Charter shareholders in the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was higher, severance-related expenses were lower. We did not have any losses related to the extinguishment of debt as we did last year, and we had a gain on financial instruments from currency movements on our British pound debt and the related hedging. Those positive drivers were partly offset by higher depreciation and amortization and higher interest expense.

    請參閱投影片9,了解淨利情況。第一季度,我們實現了歸屬於Charter股東的1.68億美元淨利。調整後EBITDA有所成長,遣散費相關支出下降。與去年不同,我們沒有因債務清償而產生任何損失,並且由於英鎊債務的匯率波動以及相關的對沖操作,我們從金融工具中獲得了收益。這些利多因素部分被更高的折舊和攤提以及更高的利息支出所抵銷。

  • Turning to Slide 10, capital expenditures totaled $2.2 billion in the first quarter, primarily driven by higher spending on CPE, scalable infrastructure and support capital. The CPE spend was driven by higher connect volumes, continued migration of legacy customers over to Spectrum who were frequently provided with new equipment. We also incurred $186 million of all-digital spend, which falls primarily into the CPE category.

    請參閱第10張投影片,第一季資本支出總額為22億美元,主要原因是客戶終端設備(CPE)、可擴展基礎設施和支援資本的支出增加。 CPE支出增加的原因是連接量增加,以及傳統客戶持續遷移到Spectrum,這些客戶通常需要獲得新設備。此外,我們也產生了1.86億美元的全數位支出,其中也主要屬於CPE類別。

  • The increase in scalable infrastructure was related to the timing of video spend and planned product improvements for video and Internet including spending related to DOCSIS 3.1 launches.

    可擴展基礎設施的增加與視訊支出的時間表以及視訊和互聯網產品的計劃改進有關,包括與 DOCSIS 3.1 發布相關的支出。

  • We also spent more in the support category and in our vehicles, tools and test equipment, software development and facility spending; in each case, some insourcing, some related to integration.

    我們在支援類別以及車輛、工具和測試設備、軟體開發和設施支出方面也投入了更多資金;在每一種情況下,有些是內部投入,有些與整合有關。

  • Given the pace of all-digital, DOCSIS 3.1 deployment and our overall state of the integration and planning, the ability to spending capital more consistently as compared to last year is in fact a good sign. For the full year, we continue to expect a cable capital intensity or cable capital expenditure as a percentage of cable revenue to be a bit lower than 2017.

    鑑於全數位化、DOCSIS 3.1部署的步伐以及我們整體的整合和規劃狀況,與去年相比,能夠更穩定地投入資金實際上是一個好兆頭。我們預計全年有線電視資本密集度(即有線電視資本支出佔有線電視收入的百分比)將略低於2017年。

  • Slide 11 shows we generated $49 million of negative free cash flow in the first quarter versus $1.1 billion of free cash flow in the first quarter of last year. The decline was largely driven by higher CapEx and working capital timing this quarter where I provided a fair amount of color on overall working capital timing last quarter.

    第11張投影片顯示,我們第一季的自由現金流為負4,900萬美元,去年同期為11億美元。這一下降主要是由於本季度資本支出增加以及營運資金週轉時間安排問題所致,我在上個季度已對整體營運資金週轉時間安排進行了較為詳細的闡述。

  • The Q1 working capital headwind is primarily driven by the timing of our late fourth quarter CapEx spend, which drove early Q1 cash payments without offsetting intraquarter CapEx timing.

    第一季營運資金面臨的不利因素主要是由於我們第四季末的資本支出時間安排,導致第一季初現金支付提前,而季度內資本支出時間安排並未抵銷這一不利因素。

  • We finished the quarter with $70 billion in debt principal, a run rate annualized cash interest expense at March 31 was approximately $3.8 billion, whereas our P&L interest expense in the quarter suggests a $3.4 billion annual run rate. That difference is due to purchase accounting.

    本季末,我們的負債本金為700億美元,截至3月31日的年化現金利息支出約為38億美元,而本季損益表中的利息支出顯示年化利息支出為34億美元。這一差異是由於收購會計處理所造成的。

  • As of the end of the first quarter, our net debt to last 12-month adjusted EBITDA was 4.46x, within our target leverage range of 4 to 4.5x.

    截至第一季末,我們的淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後的 EBITDA 比率為 4.46 倍,在我們 4 至 4.5 倍的目標槓桿率範圍內。

  • Earlier this month, we issued $2.5 billion worth of 20- and 30-year investment-grade notes, which will primarily be used to fund an upcoming maturity.

    本月初,我們發行了價值 25 億美元的 20 年期和 30 年期投資等級債券,這些債券將主要用於為即將到期的債券提供資金。

  • During the first quarter, we repurchased 2 million shares in Charter Holdings common units, $683 million. And the fact that we started the year at the high end of our target leverage range as opposed to increase a leverage in 2017 mathematically means our 2018 buybacks will be less than 2017, same as I mentioned on last call. We may also reduce our cable leverage somewhat over the course of the year to ensure that consolidating EBITDA remains at/or under 4.5x.

    第一季度,我們回購了Charter Holdings的200萬股普通股,價值6.83億美元。由於我們年初的槓桿率處於目標區間的高端,而非像2017年那樣提高槓桿率,因此從數學角度來看,我們2018年的股票回購規模將小於2017年,正如我在上次電話會議上提到的那樣。此外,我們可能還會在年內適當降低電纜業務的槓桿率,以確保合併EBITDA保持在4.5倍或以下。

  • Beyond starting point leverage, other factors also play a role in the amount of 2018 versus 2017 buybacks, including the early pace of our mobile product launch, working capital effects in consumer devices, and I don't expect we can achieve the same level of working capital improvement for cable in 2018. Within those constraints, however, we will remain opportunistic to preserve flexibility to create shareholder value.

    除了初始槓桿率之外,其他因素也會影響2018年與2017年股票回購規模的差異,包括我們行動產品上市的早期階段、消費設備業務的營運資本影響,而且我預計2018年我們無法在有線電視業務方面實現同樣的營運資本改善水準。然而,在這些限制條件下,我們將繼續抓住機遇,保持彈性,以創造股東價值。

  • Turning to taxes on Slide 13. We don't currently expect to be a material cash income tax payer until 2021 at the earliest. Given the tax reform passed by Congress and signed into legislation last year, we estimated that the total present value of our tax assets reflecting a later NOL utilization against the lower rate has declined from just over $5 billion to about $3.5 billion. That decline is offset by the much larger value associated with net present value of tax reform, which drives higher free cash flow in perpetuity.

    請參閱第13頁投影片以了解稅務狀況。我們預計最早也要到2021年才會成為重要的現金所得稅納稅人。鑑於國會去年通過並簽署生效的稅改法案,我們估計,反映未來利用較低稅率抵扣淨經營虧損(NOL)的稅項資產總現值已從略高於50億美元降至約35億美元。但這項降幅被稅改帶來的淨現值大幅提升所抵消,後者將持續帶來更高的自由現金流。

  • Before moving to Q&A, I wanted to reiterate the financial framework for the launch of Spectrum mobile service later this year.

    在進入問答環節之前,我想重申今年稍後推出 Spectrum 行動服務的財務框架。

  • We believe that our entry into mobility can further accelerate customer growth and drive for penetration. The more customer growth we generate, the more incremental revenue we'll generate, mobile and from cable. Much of that revenue in the beginning will be device contract revenue, which is fully recognized on the contract date and similarly as cost of goods sold under EIP accounting, with the actual customer payments received over a longer period.

    我們相信,進軍行動領域能夠進一步加速客戶成長並提升市場滲透率。客戶成長越多,行動和有線電視業務的增量收入就越多。初期的大部分收入將來自設備合約收入,這部分收入將在合約簽訂日全額確認,並按照分期付款會計準則計入銷售成本,而客戶實際付款則會在較長一段時間內分期收取。

  • As with any subscription business, there are upfront launch costs and acquisition activity, which creates OpEx and CapEx, which exceed the gross margin benefits in the short term. The more mobile customer growth we generate early on, the more EBITDA and initial cash flow drag we'll experience in the early days. And over time, we expect our mobile service to generate positive EBITDA and cash flow on a stand-alone basis with broader growth benefits to our core cable services.

    與所有訂閱業務一樣,前期啟動成本和獲客活動都會產生營運支出和資本支出,這些支出在短期內會超過毛利率帶來的收益。我們早期行動用戶成長越多,初期EBITDA和現金流的拖累就越大。但隨著時間的推移,我們預計行動服務將能夠獨立產生正的EBITDA和現金流,並為我們的核心有線電視服務帶來更廣泛的成長效益。

  • Our mobile business will eventually be fully integrated as just another cable product in the bundle from a marketing care, billing and service perspective, so no different than Internet and voice today, and it will not be a separate payable or segment as such. Through the launch phase, however, we'll be able to create transparency around cable performance by disclosing mobile revenue, mobile operating cost and, therefore, mobile effects on adjusted EBITDA. We should also be able to isolate the largest working capital impacts from the timing into cash flow from device costs and related subscriber payments. We'll provide additional details on the mobile business as we move through the year and as the business scales.

    從行銷、計費和服務角度來看,我們的行動業務最終將完全整合到有線電視套餐中,與目前的網路和語音服務並無二致,不會單獨作為一項付費業務或業務板塊。但在上線初期,我們將透過揭露行動收入、行動營運成本以及行動業務對調整後 EBITDA 的影響,提高有線電視業務的透明度。此外,我們還可以將設備成本和相關用戶付款等因素對營運資本的最大影響分離出來,並將其轉換為現金流。隨著業務的推進和規模的擴大,我們將提供更多關於行動業務的詳細資訊。

  • Operator, we're now ready for Q&A.

    操作員,我們現在可以進入問答環節了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Ben Sinburne from Morgan Stanely.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ben Sinburne。

  • Benjamin Daniel Swinburne - MD

    Benjamin Daniel Swinburne - MD

  • Chris, I have 2 questions for you, one around the customer trends and one around ARPU. So on the customer side, you talked about elevated churn or, I guess, churn up year-on-year due to disruption not only on digital but also -- and maybe the related higher nonpay. So taking those 2 drivers, and you look out into the rest of the year, do you expect net adds to be up year-on-year in the back half as presumably both of those headwinds, particularly the nonpay piece stayed? Obviously, people are focused on subscriber trends, so any color there would be helpful. And then on ARPU, can you just help us, as we think about the rest of the year, whether you expect ARPU growth to be higher or lower than what we saw in Q1 directionally based on at least the timing of the rate adjustments you've implemented?

    克里斯,我有兩個問題想問你,一個是關於客戶趨勢的,另一個是關於每個用戶的平均收入(ARPU)。在客戶方面,你提到流失率上升,或者說,由於數位化管道的中斷,以及可能相關的非付費用戶增加,導致流失率比去年同期上升。考慮到這兩個因素,展望今年剩餘時間,你預計下半年淨新增用戶數會比去年同期成長嗎?畢竟,這兩個不利因素,特別是非付費用戶增加的因素,應該會持續存在。顯然,大家都很關注用戶趨勢,所以任何相關資訊都會很有幫助。至於ARPU,你能否幫我們分析一下,在展望今年剩餘時間時,你預期ARPU的成長方向會高於還是低於第一季?這至少要基於你們已經實施的費率調整的時間節點。

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. On customer trends, look if -- we talked at length, the big driver is the nonpay disconnect. Had it not been for that, customer net adds particularly in TWC for video and Internet would have been better on a year-over-year basis. And so it's entirely driven by that issue. Sales are up across the company and across TWC in particular, which is, obviously, the largest driver. And so nonpay disconnect was the biggest factor. The second piece that I would highlight is that where we've increased to DOCSIS 3.1 not only were sales up year-over-year but net ads were up significantly year-over-year in those markets. And the issues that Tom highlighted have been addressed for nonpay takes a little while to get out of the system, so by the end of Q2 or early Q3 the disconnect side is expected to improve and is improving throughout the first quarter and we'd expect the same to continue through Q2. So yes, we expect the net adds to improve. The sales are moving very well, and so our expectation has been and remains that customer net adds will continue to improve. On ARPU, the residential customer ARPU, which is I think is what you're referring to as the most relevant metric, there is still a large amount of revenue reallocation from bundled pricing that goes on through Spectrum pricing and packaging. So I think the product ARPUs are somewhat irrelevant but the customer relationship ARPU is. The factors that I went through in the prepared remarks are, we had a lower rate, as you get more mature into the Spectrum pricing and packaging migration process you have a lower rate of SPP migration, which removes some of the negative ARPU factor that we've had over the past few quarters, meaning it's just a lesser impact. You have more services, better sales and so all of that's flowing through. And then we did have some minor rate adjustments which will carry through for the rest of the year. So without sitting back and giving guidance specifically by quarter, I think the ARPU headwinds that we've had through the initial SPP migration should be less going forward. The one big factor I'd mention is that single-play Internet sell-in is the other one, the amount of single-play Internet sell-in including -- has an impact to the overall customer relationship ARPU. And if we can get more of that for customers who are unwilling to take video, we will, and so I put that one caveat into the ARPU.

    當然。關於客戶趨勢,正如我們之前詳細討論過的,最大的驅動因素是未付費用戶流失。如果不是因為這個問題,TWC(時代華納有線電視)的視訊和網路用戶淨增長量會比去年同期更高。所以,這完全是由這個問題所驅動的。公司整體銷售額,尤其是TWC的銷售額都在成長,這顯然是最大的驅動因素。因此,未付費用戶流失是最大的影響因素。我想強調的第二點是,在我們升級到DOCSIS 3.1的地區,不僅銷售額同比增長,而且這些市場的淨廣告收入也顯著同比增長。湯姆提到的問題已經解決,因為未付費用戶流失需要一段時間才能消除,所以預計到第二季末或第三季初,用戶流失情況會有所改善,而且在第一季也一直在改善,我們預計這種情況會持續到第二季​​。所以,是的,我們預期淨成長量會提高。銷售進展非常順利,因此我們一直並將繼續預期淨增長量會繼續提高。關於ARPU(每位用戶平均收入),也就是您所說的最相關的指標——住宅用戶的ARPU,目前仍有大量收入透過Spectrum的定價和套餐組合進行重新分配。因此,我認為產品ARPU在某種程度上並不重要,但客戶關係ARPU卻很重要。我在準備的發言稿中提到的因素是:隨著Spectrum定價和套餐組合遷移流程的日趨成熟,SPP遷移率也會降低,這在一定程度上緩解了過去幾個季度ARPU的負面影響,也就是說,其影響較小。此外,服務種類增多,銷售業績提升,所有這些因素都在發揮作用。同時,我們也進行了一些小幅的費率調整,這些調整將持續到年底。因此,雖然我們無法給出具體的季度業績指引,但我認為,在最初的SPP遷移過程中遇到的ARPU不利因素,未來應該會有所緩解。我想提到的一個重要因素是,單一網路行銷的銷售額,包括單一網路行銷的銷售額在內,會對整體客戶關係平均每用戶收入(ARPU)產生影響。如果我們能為那些不願意觀看影片的客戶爭取到更多這類銷售額,我們當然會這樣做,所以我把這一點也納入了ARPU的考量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Jonathan Chaplin from New Street Research.

    下一個問題來自新街研究公司的喬納森·查普林。

  • Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head

    Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head

  • Chris, hoping to get a little bit more color on the trajectory of wireless losses that you're expecting post the JV that you guys have announced with Comcast. So we've been expecting similar losses to Comcast delayed by a year. And I'm wondering if that's sort of the reasonable place to set our expectations. And then how would the JV and the sharing of costs change that?

    克里斯,我想更詳細地了解你們與康卡斯特成立合資企業後,無線業務下滑的預期走勢。我們之前預計康卡斯特的下滑幅度會類似,只是會再延一年。我想知道這樣的預期是否合理。合資企業成立以及成本分攤又會如何影響這種預期呢?

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. Look, it's a brand-new business. We have a budget, we know what we plan to do, and I think using Comcast as a proxy is as good as any at this point. And -- but the biggest driver there is the level of subscriber acquisition. There's a lot of upfront subscriber acquisition cost and these are NPV-positive customer acquisitions once you get to steadier state growth, the business has a not only a positive EBITDA, but a positive free cash flow contribution on a stand-alone basis. So the faster we grow, the more short-term pressure we put onto the EBITDA and free cash flow. Now having said that, Comcast has been extremely helpful to Charter as we go through establishing back-office systems, and the JV should continue to help us do that. So is there an opportunity that the go-forward platform costs for companies are reduced by sharing in those expenses and that's the whole idea of getting into the JV. So I think on a relative basis because of how we're cooperating now, could we do marginally better maybe, I would say, that both companies should benefit from the JV that we've signed together.

    當然。你看,這是一個全新的業務。我們有預算,也清楚自己的計劃,我認為目前用康卡斯特(Comcast)作為參考是恰當的。而且——但最大的驅動因素是用戶獲取量。用戶取得的前期成本很高,但一旦業務進入穩定成長階段,這些用戶取得的淨現值(NPV)都是正的,業務不僅能實現正的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA),還能獨立產生正的自由現金流。因此,我們成長越快,息稅折舊攤提前利潤和自由現金流的短期壓力就越大。話雖如此,康卡斯特在Charter建立後台系統的過程中給予了我們極大的幫助,合資企業應該會繼續幫助我們完成這項工作。那麼,透過分攤這些費用,是否有可能降低公司未來的平台成本?這正是我們成立合資企業的目的。所以我認為,從相對意義上講,鑑於我們現在的合作方式,我們或許可以做得更好一些,我認為,兩家公司都應該從我們共同簽署的合資協議中受益。

  • Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

    Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, this is Tom, Jonathan. So I agree with Chris that both companies should benefit by the joint venture from an operating cost perspective and therefore the business is more valuable as a result of that. We will not have the same marketing strategies. And so we will diverge in terms of performance most likely and so really the impact is driven by the speed at which we'll roll the business out and how successful you are in the market.

    是的,我是湯姆,我是喬納森。我同意克里斯的觀點,從營運成本的角度來看,兩家公司都應該從合資企業中受益,因此合資企業的價值也會更高。我們的行銷策略不會相同,所以業績方面很可能會出現差異。因此,最終的影響取決於我們推出業務的速度以及你們在市場上的成功程度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Craig Moffett from MoffettNathanson.

    你的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Craig Moffett。

  • Quan Yao - Senior Research Associate

    Quan Yao - Senior Research Associate

  • This is actually Cathy Yao in for Craig Moffett. My question is just looking at the stock reaction today, it seems to suggest that investors are calling into question the Charter story. Can you provide your own perspective on whether you think the long-term story has changed? Do you think that your subscribers can still grow? Have your expectations about broadband growth changed? And then most importantly of all, can you talk about the free cash flow generation capability of the business? Has that changed longer term? And does wireless change that?

    我是 Cathy Yao,代替 Craig Moffett。我的問題是,從今天的股價反應來看,投資人似乎對 Charter 的發展前景有所質疑。您能否談談您對公司長期發展前景的看法?您認為公司的長期發展前景是否有改變?您認為用戶數量還能持續成長嗎?您對寬頻業務成長的預期是否有所改變?最重要的是,您能否談談公司的自由現金流產生能力?長遠來看,這方面是否有所改變?無線業務的發展是否會影響這一點?

  • Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

    Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, Cathy, no. Simply, our vision of the business is what we expected several years ago and continue to expect going forward. We think that from the superior infrastructure that allows us to stand up highly competitive if not more competitive products than alternative networks, and we've been successfully selling and marketing our product but at the same time, going through a very complex integration of 3 very large companies to get to a single simplest platform. That integration is actually going quite well and pretty much as planned. It's -- it has lumpy aspects to it as we combine the companies in various ways. But generally, we are going exactly as we planned in creating the kind of future value that we expect to create. And since we told our initial story, obviously, we've done the acquisitions and we've done an entry into mobility, which we think is a natural fit to our existing infrastructure and service infrastructure and will create additional value for the shareholders that wouldn't be created without doing it. So we think the Charter story is fully intact and getting better as a result of the mobility. The -- in terms of capital intensity and free cash flow creation, I think, there are -- obviously, we're in a capital-intensive trend at the moment as we integrate and as we make our networks all-digital so that we can take advantage of the full capability of the network, which was planned. And -- but the long-run trend is less capital intensity, and significantly less capital intensity as our need to buy CPE goes away and as CPE costs come down. And there are some forces there that are even greater than we had thought. I mean, obviously, the change in video, the change in the video marketplace, essentially requires less capital intensity in video because with the competitors that we face and with our own profits in IP, you don't necessarily make new set-top boxes, you can move to an application-based delivery system in some situation. So we think that, along with decline in prices for CPE, mean capital intensity improves maybe marginally better than we might have thought previously. And the changes in the video business, they are significant and hard to predict, but we still think there's video growth capable inside of our asset base. It's fairly marginally insignificant though in this sense. There's very little margin in the video business. So whether you're (inaudible) by 1 million customers is relatively immaterial to our plan. And while we think that we will make a great video product available to our customers and that, that great video product will continue to help us drive the overall connectivity business we have, if we're asked in our forecast for that, it's not significantly financially material to our growth prospects. So I can't explain market reactions, but our activity and our project management is going as we expected and the kind of marketplace acceptance of our products is going as we expected.

    凱西,不,不是這樣的。簡單來說,我們對業務的願景與幾年前的預期一致,未來也將繼續如此。我們認為,憑藉著卓越的基礎設施,我們能夠打造出極具競爭力的產品,甚至比競爭對手更具競爭力。我們一直在成功地銷售和推廣我們的產品,但同時,我們也在進行一項非常複雜的整合,將三家規模龐大的公司整合到一個最簡潔的平台上。事實上,整合進展相當順利,基本上符合預期。當然,由於我們需要以各種方式整合公司,整合過程中難免會出現一些波折。但總的來說,我們在創造我們預期的未來價值方面,正按計劃穩步前進。自從我們最初講述我們的故事以來,顯然,我們完成了收購,並進軍了出行領域。我們認為,這與我們現有的基礎設施和服務體系完美契合,並將為股東創造額外的價值,如果沒有這項業務,這些價值將無法實現。因此,我們認為Charter的故事完整無缺,而且由於出行領域的拓展,它正在變得更加精彩。就資本密集度和自由現金流創造而言,我認為——顯然,目前我們正處於資本密集型階段,因為我們正在進行整合,並將網絡全面數位化,以便充分利用網絡的全部能力,這原本就是我們計劃的一部分。但從長遠來看,資本密集度將會降低,而且隨著我們對CPE(客戶端設備)的需求減少以及CPE成本的下降,資本密集度將會顯著降低。而且,還有一些因素甚至比我們預想的還要大。我的意思是,顯然,視訊領域的變革,尤其是視訊市場的變化,從本質上降低了視訊業務的資本密集度需求,因為考慮到我們面臨的競爭對手以及我們在IP(智慧財產權)方面的利潤,我們不一定需要生產新的機上盒,在某些情況下,我們可以轉向基於應用程式的交付系統。因此,我們認為,隨著CPE價格的下降,資本密集度可能會比我們先前預想的略有改善。視訊業務的變化是巨大的,而且難以預測,但我們仍然認為,在我們現有的資產基礎中,視訊業務仍有成長潛力。從這個意義上講,它的影響微乎其微。視訊業務的利潤空間非常小。所以,無論你擁有多少(聽不清楚)100萬客戶,對我們的計畫來說都無關緊要。雖然我們相信能夠為客戶提供優質的視訊產品,而這款產品將繼續幫助我們推動整體連接業務的發展,但如果在預測中被問及此事,它對我們的成長前景並沒有顯著的財務影響。因此,我無法解釋市場反應,但我們的業務活動和專案管理進展順利,產品在市場上的接受度也符合預期。

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • Maybe two quick thoughts. One is if you think around the timing of good quarter off quarter as it relates to net adds for somebody's model, a lot of people are looking for a linear outcoming, we've tried to do as fair as we can, but that's not going to be linear. And if you take a look back at the Legacy Charter experience, look at it on annual basis, it looks pretty linear. But if you go back and take a look at 2013 and 2014, in particular, it really was anything but linear. That applies to net adds and it applies to the financial results. And it looks choppy as we were going through it. So in some respects, market reaction, which I haven't focused on that much as of yet this morning is a little bit of a déjà vu. And we're turning a lot of knobs same as we did with Legacy Charter and (inaudible) integration, and there's a lot of moving parts but the trajectory remains as good as ever. The second one is on the impact to wireless where the conversations we've had with some investors is somewhat bifurcated. On one hand, there's a group of investors who get it and say, go as fast as you can from a competitive standpoint. It's the right thing to do. It does have a positive NPV, and it's an attractive business. And then there's another group who are very, very focused on the short-term impact to have it done free cash flow and what that might do to an overall growth rate. So one, we are going to isolate that impact so people can focus on the core value creation of the cable platform and the option value, if you want to call it that, on the mobility business. But that investment relative to the overall size of the Charter's revenue or EBITDA is relatively small and the potential upside attached to that investment is significant. And I think that's the piece that is missing in terms of understanding and putting that upfront investment into perspective. And we're going to isolate it along the way so people, if they see this as a bet, they can the size up, size that bet and understand the relative materiality. But we think it's attractive. We think it's going to help us, not only add EBITDA and free cash flow over time, but we think it's very constructive and helpful towards further Internet growth in particular in the cable business.

    也許有兩點需要快速說明。第一,如果你考慮季度業績與淨新增用戶之間的關係,很多人都希望看到業績呈線性增長,我們也盡力做到公平,但這並非總是線性的。回顧Legacy Charter的業績,以年度來看,看起來相當線性。但如果你回顧2013年和2014年,尤其是這兩年,你會發現情況遠非如此。這不僅適用於淨新增用戶,也適用於財務表現。我們一路走來,業績波動較大。因此,在某種程度上,市場反應(我今天早上還沒有過多關注這一點)有點像似曾相識。我們正在像Legacy Charter和(聽不清楚)整合時期一樣,調整很多因素,涉及的方面很多,但整體發展軌跡仍然良好。第二個問題是關於無線業務的影響,我們與一些投資者的討論結果有分歧。一方面,一部分投資人理解這一點,他們認為從競爭角度來看,應該盡可能快速地推進。這是正確的做法,因為這項業務的淨現值為正,而且極具吸引力。另一方面,另一部分投資者則非常關注短期內自由現金流的影響,以及這可能對整體成長率產生的影響。因此,我們將首先排除這種影響,以便大家能夠專注於有線電視平台的核心價值創造,以及行動業務的潛在價值(如果您願意這麼稱呼的話)。但相對於Charter的整體營收或EBITDA而言,這項投資規模相對較小,而其潛在收益卻非常可觀。我認為,這正是目前在理解和正確看待這項前期投資方面所缺乏的關鍵。我們會逐步將其單獨列出,以便大家如果將其視為一項投資,可以評估其規模,了解其相對重要性。但我們認為它很有吸引力。我們認為它不僅能隨著時間的推移增加我們的 EBITDA 和自由現金流,而且我們認為它對互聯網業務的進一步增長,尤其是在有線電視業務方面,具有非常積極和有益的作用。

  • Quan Yao - Senior Research Associate

    Quan Yao - Senior Research Associate

  • Okay. So from a free cash flow perspective your long-term view hasn't changed even if the mix shift to get there may have moved around a little bit with video environment getting worse.

    好的。所以從自由現金流的角度來看,即使隨著視訊環境惡化,實現目標的組合可能略有調整,但你的長期前景並沒有改變。

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. I mean, the biggest free cash flow generation that you're going to see from 2019 CapEx when it comes down and that hasn't changed. This year we're doing all-digital, we're doing the DOCSIS 3.1. We still have a tremendous amount of integration capital that's inside these numbers and that essentially comes down next year. And in the meantime, despite some lumpiness on subscriber net adds from one quarter to the next, the financial results we mentioned in Q4 will be at the lower point on EBITDA (inaudible) that's the case and the business is moving. It doesn't mean that it's going to be linear so not much treated that way, but we did hit the low point already on the financials and the business is moving in the right direction.

    不。我的意思是,2019 年資本支出下降後,你將會看到最大的自由現金流,這一點沒有改變。今年我們正在全面數位轉型,推動 DOCSIS 3.1 標準。我們仍然有大量的整合資金,這些資金包含在這些數據中,明年基本上會減少。同時,儘管各季度淨新增用戶數量有所波動,但我們在第四季度提到的財務業績將處於 EBITDA 的低點(聽不清楚),情況確實如此,業務正在向前發展。這並不意味著它會呈線性增長,所以我們不會這樣看待它,但我們的財務數據已經觸底,業務正朝著正確的方向發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Vijay Jayant from Evercore.

    下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Vijay Jayant。

  • Vijay A. Jayant - Senior MD, Head of Media & Cable, Satellite & Telecom Services & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Vijay A. Jayant - Senior MD, Head of Media & Cable, Satellite & Telecom Services & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Just following up on the Bright question, when you were going through this transition on legacy Charter and there was disruption of cash flow and, obviously, volume reflection on cash flow on the Time Warner Cable transaction, but you also had pretty robust subscriber growth and you were getting the share. Obviously, I think, now the question is if the market environment change enough that would you have to revisit your strategy given I think you have a lot of levers to pull on pricing and tiering and the like. So I was just trying to see given the market environment might get the same free cash flow numbers at the end and very sort of -- if you could talk about, is there some tweaking on strategy that needs to be done to do that given the market environment.

    關於Bright提出的問題,我想繼續探討。之前您在Charter公司進行轉型時,現金流受到了一定程度的影響,收購時代華納有線電視公司也對現金流造成了衝擊。但同時,您的用戶成長也相當強勁,並且獲得了市場份額。現在的問題是,如果市場環境發生足夠大的變化,您是否需要重新審視您的策略?畢竟,您在定價和分級套餐等方面有很多可以調整的空間。所以我想了解的是,在當前市場環境下,您是否有可能最終獲得與之前相同的自由現金流?如果可以的話,我想談談,在當前市場環境下,是否需要對策略進行一些調整才能實現這一目標。

  • Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

    Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

  • Vijay, it's Tom. Obviously, the markets move through time, our strategy moves with it. And we think that we have needed to change our product and our mix in order to take advantage of our assets and compete in the marketplace prospectively and we think that we can do that and are doing that, and our sales volume and our connect volume and our management of our customer base, pricing and packaging gives us confidence that we can continue to do that. Take data speeds, for instance. With Legacy Charter, when I came with Charter, our average data speeds was 10 megabits. And we took the minimum up over time to 30, and created most of our subscriber growth at 30. Today, in this new model, we've just gone to 200 meg minimum speed in a significant part of our market, 100 megabit speed in the bigger part of our market. But that's shifting as we rolled out this 3.1 technology. So we've taken advantage of the marketplace and the capacity of our network to change our data product so that it will continue to drive the kind of results we expected to get. But we are in the middle of the tooling of that process right now as we integrate the company. We have a vastly superior product almost everywhere we operate. And we expect to get results from that. And if we need to change that 2 years from now, we have the ability to do it at very little or very small incremental cost, which is the beauty of the infrastructure that we built out in this company. So, I guess the answer to your question is we have the same high expectations for free cash flow growth in this entity now based in the current marketplace as we understand it now just like we did 5 or 6 years ago.

    維傑,我是湯姆。顯然,市場瞬息萬變,我們的策略也隨之調整。我們認為,為了充分利用自身優勢,在未來的市場競爭中佔據優勢,我們需要改變產品和產品組合。我們相信我們能夠做到這一點,而且我們也正在這樣做。我們的銷售、連結量以及對客戶群、定價和套餐的管理都讓我們有信心繼續保持這種勢頭。以數據速度為例。在我加入Charter之前,我們的平均資料速度是10兆位元。隨著時間的推移,我們將最低速度提升到了30兆位元,並且大部分用戶成長都發生在30兆位元的頻段。如今,在新模式下,我們在相當一部分市場中已經實現了200兆位元的最低速度,在更大一部分市場中也達到了100兆位元。但隨著我們推出3.1技術,這種情況正在改變。因此,我們充分利用了市場環境和網路容量,改善了數據產品,使其能夠繼續推動我們預期的成果。目前,我們正處於整合公司業務的過程中,對這項流程進行工具化改造。在我們營運的幾乎所有地區,我們都擁有遠勝以往的產品。我們期望從中獲得成效。如果兩年後我們需要對產品進行調整,我們只需極低的增量成本即可完成,這正是我們公司建構的基礎設施的優勢所在。所以,我想對您問題的答案是:基於我們對當前市場狀況的理解,我們對公司自由現金流成長的預期與五、六年前一樣高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Marci Ryvicker from Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的馬西·瑞維克。

  • Marci Lynn Ryvicker - MD & Senior Analyst

    Marci Lynn Ryvicker - MD & Senior Analyst

  • I have 2. I think just staying on subscriber trend and the stock price, I feel like it sounds like maybe 2019 is when we finally get to stabilization in sub trends and maybe that's when the market will start to give you a little bit more credit maybe as we get closer. So is that a fair statement or thought? And then secondly, unrelated, as we dig into 5G, I think it's becoming more apparent that cellular backhaul is increasingly important, and I guess how do you think this plays out over time? And how can you better monetize it, especially with a larger platform?

    我有兩個問題。首先,我認為如果只關注用戶成長趨勢和股價走勢,2019 年用戶成長趨勢可能會趨於穩定,屆時市場或許會開始更加認可我們的實力。我的這種想法是否合理?其次,雖然與此無關,但隨著我們深入研究 5G,蜂巢回傳的重要性日益凸顯。您認為這種情況會如何發展?尤其是在平台規模擴大的情況下,如何才能更好地實現蜂巢回傳的獲利?

  • Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

    Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

  • So Marci, I don't know when markets award you or don't award you. Ultimately, our job is to create a free cash flow that we expect from these assets. And we think we're on track to do that or on track with the plan that we made. So whether we'll get rewarded before that occurs or after it occurs, I don't know, but we expect to create the free cash flow. And in terms of the infrastructure that we have, we do think that we are the natural small-cell provider and that we have the most efficient ability to provide small-cell connectivity compared to any other infrastructure competitor we have. And we have 26 million small cells already connected to our network. We have 250 million wireless devices already connected to those small cells, and we plan to continue to build out the small-cell environment. How that relates to other business opportunities, it's hard to say, but we have them.

    所以,瑪西,我不知道市場何時會給我們回報,或不給予回報。歸根結底,我們的工作是創造我們預期從這些資產中獲得的自由現金流。我們認為我們正朝著這個目標穩步前進,或者說,我們正按照既定計畫穩步推進。因此,我們是否會在目標實現之前或之後獲得回報,我不得而知,但我們預期能夠創造自由現金流。就我們現有的基礎設施而言,我們認為我們是天然的小型基地台供應商,與任何其他基礎設施競爭對手相比,我們擁有最高效的小型基地台連接能力。目前,我們的網路已經連接了2600萬個小型基地台,2.5億台無線設備已經連接到這些小型基地台,我們計劃繼續擴展小型基地台網路。至於這與其他業務機會有何關聯,現在還很難說,但我們確實擁有這些機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Jason Bazinet from Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的傑森·巴齊內特。

  • Jason B Bazinet - MD and U.S. Cable and Satellite Analyst

    Jason B Bazinet - MD and U.S. Cable and Satellite Analyst

  • This is for Mr. Rutledge, I guess. I know the strategy is to get more people attached to your fixed cost network. But I had a question when I was going through the case of your competitors and yours and just doing benchmarking, whether I look at the relationships, customer relationships per employee or revenue per employee, Charter doesn't fare that favorably. You're sort of 10%, 20%, 30% below all your publicly listed peers. And so my question is, if the unit growth sort of evaporates from the ecosystem or if you're unsuccessful sort of getting the attached rate up, do you think there is a potential cost element? Said another way, is there something materially structural about your footprint or your systems that would make you less productive, if you will, vis-a-vis your peer cable companies?

    我想這是問拉特利奇先生的。我知道你們的策略是讓更多人連結你們的固定成本網路。但我在研究你們和競爭對手的案例並進行基準分析時,發現無論從人均客戶關係、每位員工的客戶關係還是每位員工的收入來看,Charter 的表現都不盡如人意。你們的各項指標都比所有上市同業低 10%、20% 甚至 30%。所以我的問題是,如果用戶成長停滯不前,或者你們無法成功提高用戶存取率,你們認為這會帶來潛在的成本影響嗎?換句話說,你們的規模或系統是否存在某些實質的結構性問題,導致你們相對於其他有線電視公司而言效率較低?

  • Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

    Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, that's a very interesting question. The short answer is no. And in fact, we think we'll be more productive. But we are in the middle of the transition, where we're moving from an outsourced environment to an insource environment. And we're creating a more professional workplace that is designed to provide higher-quality service which will improve subscriber lives and reduce transaction volume ultimately in our business. So we'll have less transactions per customer. If we have less transactions per customer we believe, and which we're trending toward every day as our operations improve and as the skill sets that we -- that are needed are developed inside the company. So if you think about what I just said, insourcing and outsourcing, at the moment, we decide to move calls from the Philippines to St. Louis, for instance. We have to stand up a brand-new call center in St. Louis. We have to build it out physically, so there's capital involved, and then we have to hire a workforce and train that workforce to take the calls. In the meantime, we're still outsourcing to the Philippines until that workforce is up and running and skilled. Once the workforce is skilled though, then the number of transactions that occur as a result of having a higher skilled workforce, goes down. And we think that the transaction volume goes down faster than the cost structure goes up by having it in-sourced call center. And when you have less transactions per customer, you actually have happier customers, and so they're -- not only are they less costly to serve, they're happier. And as they're -- and because they're happier, their average life extends, which means that average value per sale that you create goes up. And the number of transactions, connects and disconnect per dollar of revenue that you spend, goes down. So we're still in the middle of the transition process that has operating expense in it as part of the strategy. But our expectation down the road, which is part of a the free cash flow driver of the business, is that you get this virtual -- virtuous growth structure where you get better-served customers who have -- who cost you less and are happier. And that benefit is set to be realized from our activity today. But it is part of our plan and our expectation. And the numbers that we expect to generate today that will prove out that thesis are occurring as we expected.

    是的,這是一個非常有趣的問題。簡而言之,答案是否定的。事實上,我們認為我們的生產力會更高。但我們正處於轉型期,從外包模式轉向內部營運模式。我們正在打造一個更專業的辦公環境,旨在提供更高品質的服務,從而改善用戶體驗,並最終降低我們業務的交易量。因此,每位客戶的交易次數將會減少。我們相信,隨著營運的改進和公司內部所需技能的培養,我們正朝著這個方向努力,而且我們每天都在朝著這個方向發展。所以,想想我剛才提到的內部營運和外包,例如,如果我們決定將呼叫中心從菲律賓轉移到聖路易斯,我們就必須在聖路易斯建立一個全新的呼叫中心。我們需要進行硬體建設,這需要資金投入,然後我們還需要招募員工並培訓他們接聽電話。同時,我們仍然將部分業務外包給菲律賓,直到當地勞動力隊伍具備足夠的技能並能正常運作。一旦勞動力隊伍技能提升,由於勞動力技能提高而產生的交易量就會下降。我們認為,交易量下降的速度會比內部呼叫中心成本上升的速度更快。當每位客戶的交易次數減少時,客戶滿意度就會提高,因此,不僅服務成本更低,客戶也更滿意。客戶滿意度提高後,他們的平均生命週期也會延長,這意味著每次銷售的平均價值都會提高。而每美元收入所對應的交易次數、連結次數和斷開次數都會減少。因此,我們目前仍處於轉型過程中,而營運成本的降低也是我們策略的一部分。但我們未來的預期,也是公司自由現金流驅動因素之一,是能夠建構一個良性成長的虛擬結構,從而為客戶提供更優質的服務,降低他們的成本,並提升他們的滿意度。而這項收益將從我們目前的業務活動中逐步實現。這是我們計劃和預期的一部分。我們今天公佈的數據將證實這一論點,並且正如我們預期的那樣正在發生。

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • Just to add, the way that you can tie it to the P&L and the metrics, I think the metric you're using is actually not right because it's apples and oranges. So if you think about the Time Warner cable call center infrastructure at one point, you could have had 50%, over 50% was outsourced. Today, over 85% of that is insourced. If you're taking a look at employees, you're completely ignoring the amount of contract labor that's inside there. And so it's an apples and oranges comparison between the 2 types of operating models. If you look at cost to service customers, the other way to think about it, we have all of the investment that Tom just spoke about, but despite having all of that investment, and despite having customer relationship growth of over 3%, our cost to service customers gross is actually coming down, excluding this bad debt, temporary effect. So our cost to service customers, which is where the vast, vast majority where the labor cost exists, is already coming down on a gross basis and on a net basis, meaning on a per customer basis, it's actually already coming down dramatically despite the amount of upfront investment that we're making that Tom highlighted. So I think you have to normalize for what -- you can't just look at how's labor, you have to add in the contract labor, which has come down dramatically, and for some companies comprises a very, very significant portion of their overall labor cost.

    補充一點,關於如何將它與損益表和指標聯繫起來,我認為你使用的指標實際上並不合適,因為這完全是兩碼事。想想時代華納有線電視呼叫中心的基礎設施,曾經有超過50%的業務是外包的。而如今,超過85%的業務都是內部營運的。如果你只關注員工數量,那就完全忽略了其中大量的合約工。所以,這兩種營運模式根本無法直接比較。換個角度來看客戶服務成本,我們投入了湯姆剛才提到的所有資金,但儘管投入巨大,客戶關係增長超過3%,我們的客戶服務總成本實際上卻在下降(不包括壞賬的暫時影響)。因此,我們服務客戶的成本(其中絕大部分是人工成本)無論從總額還是淨額(即每位客戶的成本)來看,實際上都已經大幅下降,儘管我們像湯姆強調的那樣進行了大量的前期投資。所以我認為,你必須考慮一些因素——你不能只看人工成本,還必須把合約工成本也算進去,而合約工成本已經大幅下降,對一些公司來說,這部分成本佔其總人工成本的很大一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from John Hodulik from UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰‧霍杜利克。

  • John Christopher Hodulik - MD, Sector Head of the United States Communications Group, and Telco and Pay TV Analyst

    John Christopher Hodulik - MD, Sector Head of the United States Communications Group, and Telco and Pay TV Analyst

  • A couple of questions. I guess, first for Chris. From your comments on the nonpay disconnect, it sounds like you're already starting to see some acceleration in PSU trends. If you could just confirm that or whether we'll have to sort of wait another quarter before we see that inflection as that issue sort of lapses? And then two, maybe for Tom, it sounds like you guys are seeing some improving underlying fundamentals in the HSD side when you go to 200 megabits in a market, and I think you said you're at 25% now, but -- and I may have missed it, but when do you get to 100%? And maybe if you can give us some more detail on what you see when you get to 200 megabits as a base? And whether or not you feel you have additional pricing power in those markets given the competitive landscape there?

    我有幾個問題。首先,我想問Chris。從你對非支付問題的討論來看,似乎你們已經開始看到電源供應(PSU)趨勢加速。能確認一下嗎?或者我們需要再等一個季度,等到這個問題解決後才能看到轉捩點?其次,我想問Tom,你們似乎看到高速數據(HSD)方面的基本面在市場達到200兆比特時有所改善,我記得你說過你們目前的佔比是25%,但是——我可能記錯了——你們什麼時候才能達到100%?你們能否更詳細地說明一下,當以200兆位元為基準時,你們觀察到的情況?考慮到市場競爭格局,你們是否認為在這些市場中擁有更大的定價權?

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • So on the improvement, yes, we had less of a negative impact from the nonpay disconnect issue, which has since been addressed throughout the quarter. The last of the systemic changes needed to make that -- for that to take place occurred inside of April. And so we expected to continue to ameliorate during the course of Q2. And it should be fully out by the beginning of Q3. So the trends are improving in that particular area. And I don't want to get drawn into guidance, but we wouldn't have said what we said if we didn't view that particular issue is -- was declining in its materiality.

    關於改善方面,是的,非支付斷線問題對我們造成的負面影響有所減輕,這個問題已在本季度得到解決。為實現這一目標所需的最後一項系統性調整已於四月完成。因此,我們預計在第二季將繼續改善,並在第三季初全面解決。所以,該領域的趨勢正在改善。我不想過多談業績指引,但如果我們認為問題的重要性沒有降低,我們就不會發表上述言論。

  • Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

    Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

  • So John, yes, I think, we said that we got 200 megabits in front of 25% of our customer base. We have built out as of this moment 43% of our footprint to 1-gig speed capability using 3.1 DOCSIS capability. And by the end of the year, we'll have 100% of our infrastructure capable of 1 gig or 200 megabits or 400 megabits. We haven't said where we'll roll out 200 megabits. But it's in a substantial amount of markets today, and we'll -- and we're getting good results from it. We're also getting good results from our higher ultra-tier, which is 100 megabits. And it's selling in at a substantially higher rate than our previous set. So while I don't want to give you a forecast of where we go, from an infrastructure perspective, the entire network will be capable of this product mix this year.

    約翰,是的,我想我們之前說過,我們已經為25%的客戶群提供了200兆位元的頻寬。目前,我們已利用3.1 DOCSIS技術,將43%的網路覆蓋範圍升級到1Gbps。今年底,我們將實現100%的基礎設施支援1Gbps、200兆位元或400兆位元的頻寬。我們還沒有透露200兆位元的具體部署範圍,但目前已涵蓋相當多的市場,並且取得了良好的效果。我們更高階的超高速100兆位元寬頻也取得了不錯的成績,銷售遠超之前的套餐。因此,雖然我不想預測未來的發展方向,但從基礎設施的角度來看,今年我們的整個網路都將能夠支援這種產品組合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Kannan Venkateshwar, Barclays Capital.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊資本的坎南·文卡特什瓦爾。

  • Kannan Venkateshwar - Director

    Kannan Venkateshwar - Director

  • So I have a couple. Tom, firstly, when you look at all the changes in the ecosystem right now, your peers are responding differently, slightly differently compared to you. When you think about price increases, other cable companies look more aggressive and strategically there's been a lot more pivot with AT&T buying Time Warner and Comcast buying Sky. So when you think about the ecosystem as it is set up today, do you think you need to do something different compared to what you're doing right now longer term? And then Chris, from your perspective, when you look at normalized CapEx in the proxy, I think in the proxy it was about 12% of revenues in 2019. And like you mentioned earlier on the call, you expect CapEx to drop next year. But right now, it's at 19%. So when we go into 2019, without getting into specific numbers, could you give us some sense of scale in terms of what CapEx could be like?

    我有兩個問題。湯姆,首先,當你審視當前生態系統的所有變化時,你會發現你的同行的反應與你略有不同。就價格上漲而言,其他有線電視公司似乎更積極主動,從策略角度來看,AT&T收購時代華納、康卡斯特收購天空電視台等措施也帶來了更多轉型。因此,考慮到目前的生態系統格局,你認為從長遠來看,你是否需要採取與目前不同的策略?克里斯,從你的角度來看,根據代理商數據,2019年標準化資本支出約佔收入的12%。正如你之前在電話會議中提到的,你預計明年資本支出會下降。但目前,這一比例為19%。那麼,展望2019年,在不透露具體數字的情況下,能否大致估算一下資本支出的規模?

  • Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

    Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

  • So this is Tom. As far as the ecosystem goes, we -- I think we're strategically complete in the sense that we think that we can execute our business plan with the assets that we have. So I don't think we need to own content to do better. That doesn't mean there aren't opportunities that might arise that are priced properly that would be synergistic with us. But I think we are fairly confident that we can execute our strategy, which, from our perspective, we're a connectivity company selling connectivity relationships. Video is not material from a margin or EBITDA driver perspective, but it is -- as a stand-alone product, but it is material in terms of product attribute to the overall relationship that we create with customers. And so we will have access to video. We have -- we've launched Netflix on our network. We plan to integrate all the video products into our UI and make us the best place to get video of every kind. But that doesn't require us to own video assets per se.

    這位是湯姆。就生態系統而言,我認為我們在策略上已經足夠完善,因為我們相信憑藉現有資產就能有效執行我們的商業計劃。所以我認為我們不需要擁有內容才能做得更好。但這並不意味著不會出現定價合理、與我們業務協同增效的機會。不過,我們相當有信心能夠執行我們的策略,從我們的角度來看,我們是一家連結公司,銷售的是連結關係。從利潤率或 EBITDA 驅動因素的角度來看,影片並非重要組成部分,但作為一款獨立產品,它對我們與客戶建立的整體關係至關重要。因此,我們將擁有視訊資源。我們已經在我們的網路上推出了 Netflix。我們計劃將所有視訊產品整合到我們的使用者介面中,使我們成為獲取各種類型影片的最佳平台。但這並不意味著我們必須擁有視訊資產本身。

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • From a capital expenditure, okay, there was a proxy that was over 3 years ago used with our board that ended up being publicly disclosed. So I don't want to go back in time and start looking at that. Other than to say, we expect 2019 capital expenditure to be a materially lower amount of gross dollars of CapEx and in a growing new business, therefore, materially smaller amount as a percentage of revenue. We will still have integration activity going on inside of 2019. And so that means that we expected, as a percentage of revenue -- we expect to have continued solid revenue growth for many, many years to come. It means that your capital intensity just continues to decline. I think 2019 will be a big move, and I think it continues to get better as a percentage of revenue from there. I am speaking about cable capital expenditures as a percentage of cable revenue. I don't think wireless is that or mobility is that big given all the factors that I described before where it move through the P&L. But I think 2019 starts to fully expose the free cash flow capabilities of company.

    關於資本支出,好吧,三年前我們董事會曾使用過一份代理報告,後來這份報告被公開了。所以我不想追溯過去去查看那份報告。總之,我們預期2019年的資本支出總額將大幅下降,且由於新業務的成長,其占收入的比例也將大幅降低。 2019年我們仍將進行整合工作。這意味著,我們預計未來多年收入將持續穩健成長。這意味著資本密集度將持續下降。我認為2019年將是一個重要的轉捩點,我認為從那以後,資本支出佔收入的比例還會繼續下降。我指的是有線電視業務的資本支出佔有有線電視收入的比例。考慮到我之前提到的所有因素,無線業務或行動業務在損益表中的佔比並不高。但我認為2019年將開始全面展現公司的自由現金流能力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your last question comes from the line of Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs.

    你的最後一個問題出自高盛的布雷特·費爾德曼之口。

  • Brett Joseph Feldman - Equity Analyst

    Brett Joseph Feldman - Equity Analyst

  • Just really 2 clarifications for Chris. You referenced your prior commentary around first quarter being a low point for EBITDA. And I just want to clarify if that's all-in EBITDA or EBITDA exclusive of anything you may spend on wireless? And then just another follow-up. When you were discussing the buyback potential this year and how it will be mathematically lower, you cited the way you're going to manage the leverage this year and it sounded like you may be managing leverage a little lower, I don't know if I appreciate the nuance of what you were trying to communicate, so I was hoping we could just revisit that.

    克里斯,我有兩個問題想請教你。你之前提到第一季是 EBITDA 的低谷。我想確認一下,這個 EBITDA 是指包含所有費用的 EBITDA,還是指扣除無線業務支出後的 EBITDA?另外還有一個後續問題。你之前討論過今年的股票回購潛力,以及回購金額會比往年低,你提到了今年的槓桿管理策略,聽起來好像槓桿率會稍微降低一些。我不太明白你的意思,所以我想再確認一下。

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. So I'm glad you asked the first question in case I don't think I did, but in case I misstated. What I said in the fourth quarter is the fourth quarter of 2017 was the low point of EBITDA. I did not say that the first quarter was the low point of EBITDA. First quarter EBITDA was actually pretty good. And, yes, I think it will -- it continued to improve over time, but that doesn't mean that, that will be linear. So that's certainly wasn't what I was implying. My comment from the fourth quarter 2017, which I reiterated today, was that the fourth quarter 2017 EBITDA was the low for cable EBITDA growth. In terms of managing leverage, what we're trying to make sure that we do is that we stay within 4.5x, inclusive of the short-term launch cost for mobile and any working capital impacts from the launch of mobile. And what that means is that you need to create a little bit of headroom on your cable EBITDA leverage so that you can accommodate that upfront cost. So the faster we go with wireless means that you might just need to pull in a little bit on your cable EBITDA leverage, and that's the only distinction I'm making to make sure that the consolidated leverage remains at/or below 4.5x. We're a large issuer in the debt capital markets as well and we have investment-grade -- we've made commitments to that market as well that we intend to keep, and that's to make sure that we stay in line from that perspective.

    當然。很高興你問了第一個問題,以防我表達有誤。我在第四季說過,2017 年第四季是 EBITDA 的低谷。我並沒有說第一季是 EBITDA 的低谷。事實上,第一季的 EBITDA 相當不錯。而且,是的,我認為它會隨著時間的推移繼續改善,但這並不意味著它會呈線性增長。所以,這絕對不是我的意思。我在 2017 年第四季發表的評論(我今天也重申了這一點)是,2017 年第四季的 EBITDA 是有線電視業務 EBITDA 成長的低谷。在槓桿管理方面,我們正在努力確保槓桿率保持在 4.5 倍以內,其中包括行動業務的短期啟動成本以及行動業務啟動可能帶來的任何營運資本影響。這意味著您需要在有線電視業務的 EBITDA 槓桿率上留出一些空間,以便應對前期成本。因此,無線業務發展越快,您可能需要稍微降低有線電視業務的 EBITDA 槓桿率,而我所做的唯一區別就是確保合併槓桿率保持在 4.5 倍或以下。我們也是債務資本市場的主要發行人,並且擁有投資等級債券——我們已向該市場做出承諾,並且打算履行這些承諾,這是為了確保我們在這方面符合規定。

  • Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

    Thomas M. Rutledge - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Brett. Michelle, that concludes our call.

    謝謝你,布雷特。米歇爾,我們的通話到此結束。

  • Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher L. Winfrey - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, everyone.

    謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。