切遲杜威 (CHD) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Church & Dwight First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們先生們，早上好，歡迎來到 Church & Dwight 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。

Before we begin, I have been asked to remind you that on this call, the company's management may make forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the company's financial objectives and forecasts. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and other factors that are described in detail in the company's SEC filings.

在我們開始之前，我被要求提醒您，在這次電話會議上，公司管理層可能會就公司的財務目標和預測等做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受風險和不確定性以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細描述的其他因素的影響。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Matt Farrell, President and Chief Executive Officer of Church & Dwight. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想介紹一下今天的電話會議主持人，Church & Dwight 總裁兼首席執行官 Matt Farrell 先生。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I'll begin with a review of the Q1 results. And then I'll turn the call over to Rick Dierker, our CFO. And when Rick is wrapped up, we'll open the call for questions.

大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們。我將從回顧第一季度的結果開始。然後我會把電話轉給我們的首席財務官 Rick Dierker。當 Rick 結束時，我們將開始提問。

So Q1 was a solid quarter. Reported revenue was 10.2%. Organic sales grew 5.7% and exceeded our 1% Q1 outlook. Of the 10.2% reported sales growth beat our outlook of 4%, thanks to stronger results from several brands, including Hero, THERABREATH, ARM & HAMMER laundry and ARM & HAMMER litter and exceptionally strong sales growth in our international business. The other good news is that the vitamin business and the WATERPIK business hit their Q1 sales plan, and were right on expectations.

所以第一季度是一個穩定的季度。報告收入為 10.2%。有機銷售額增長 5.7%，超過了我們 1% 的第一季度預期。在報告的 10.2% 的銷售額增長中超過了我們 4% 的預期，這要歸功於包括 Hero、THERABREATH、ARM & HAMMER 洗衣店和 ARM & HAMMER 貓砂在內的多個品牌的強勁業績以及我們國際業務的異常強勁的銷售增長。另一個好消息是，維生素業務和 WATERPIK 業務實現了第一季度的銷售計劃，符合預期。

And finally, it's also fair to say that we had a degree of conservatism in our original Q1 outlook, both top line and bottom line. Our Q1 top line growth reflects the strength of our brands, both premium and value and also our focus on execution. The combination of consumer demand and improved case fill, which is now over 93% in the U.S. is resulting in strong revenue growth.

最後，可以公平地說，我們在最初的第一季度展望中有一定程度的保守主義，包括頂線和底線。我們第一季度的收入增長反映了我們品牌的實力，包括溢價和價值，以及我們對執行的關注。消費者需求和案例填充率的提高（美國目前已超過 93%）相結合，帶來了強勁的收入增長。

Something else that is noteworthy, we had flat volume growth in Q1, which is an encouraging sign after declining volumes in the last 6 quarters, and we now expect volume growth in our full year net sales outlook.

其他值得注意的是，我們在第一季度的銷量增長持平，這是在過去 6 個季度銷量下降後的一個令人鼓舞的跡象，我們現在預計全年淨銷售額前景將出現銷量增長。

Adjusted EPS was $0.85, which was $0.10 higher than our $0.75 EPS outlook. And that was driven by higher-than-expected sales in the U.S. and especially in our international business, which posted 11.6% organic growth. In Q1, global online sales as a percentage of total sales was over 16%, and we continue to expect online sales for the full year to be above 16%.

調整後每股收益為 0.85 美元，比我們 0.75 美元的每股收益預期高出 0.10 美元。這是受美國銷售額高於預期的推動，尤其是我們的國際業務實現了 11.6% 的有機增長。第一季度，全球在線銷售額佔總銷售額的比例超過 16%，我們繼續預計全年在線銷售額將超過 16%。

Now private label shares remained consistent with historical weighted averages. Both domestic and internationally, private label is stable in our categories.

現在自有品牌股票與歷史加權平均數保持一致。在國內和國際上，自有品牌在我們的品類中都很穩定。

And now I'm going to comment on each business. First up is the U.S. The U.S. consumer business had 5.5% organic sales growth, and 8 of our 14 power brands held or gained market share in the quarter. Now I want to look at a few of the important categories in the U.S., and I want to start with laundry.

現在我要對每項業務發表評論。首先是美國。美國消費者業務的有機銷售額增長了 5.5%，我們 14 個強大品牌中有 8 個在本季度保持或獲得了市場份額。現在我想看看美國的幾個重要類別，我想從洗衣開始。

If we look at the big picture, value laundry detergent grew 9%, while premium detergent declined 3%. So the trade down to value detergent continues into 2023. During Q1, the liquid laundry category grew 3.6%, while ARM & HAMMER grew 9.3%. ARM & HAMMER liquid laundry detergent grew share by 80 basis points in the quarter to 14.3%. So with more consumers migrating to ARM & HAMMER laundry detergent, we have the potential for a long-term benefit to the ARM & HAMMER brand similar to the last recession.

如果我們從大局來看，價值洗衣粉增長了 9%，而優質洗滌劑下降了 3%。因此，到 2023 年，低價洗滌劑的交易將持續下去。在第一季度，洗衣液類別增長了 3.6%，而 ARM & HAMMER 增長了 9.3%。 ARM & HAMMER 洗衣液在本季度的份額增長了 80 個基點，達到 14.3%。因此，隨著越來越多的消費者轉向使用 ARM & HAMMER 洗衣粉，我們有可能為 ARM & HAMMER 品牌帶來類似於上次經濟衰退的長期利益。

Now over in litter, the category grew 12.7%, while ARM & HAMMER litter grew 13.5%. So we gained market share in the quarter. We did see a trade down from our premium ARM & HAMMER Cat Litter to our ARM & HAMMER value litter, which is in the orange box. So consumers are staying in the ARM & HAMMER franchise. And our Give it the Hammer advertising campaign, which halos met the many categories that ARM & HAMMER competes in is resonating with consumers.

現在在垃圾方面，該類別增長了 12.7%，而 ARM & HAMMER 垃圾增長了 13.5%。因此，我們在本季度獲得了市場份額。我們確實看到了從我們的優質 ARM & HAMMER 貓砂到我們的 ARM & HAMMER 超值貓砂的交易，後者在橙色盒子裡。因此，消費者會留在 ARM & HAMMER 特許經營權中。我們的 Give it the Hammer 廣告活動與 ARM & HAMMER 參與競爭的許多品類相得益彰，引起了消費者的共鳴。

Now in dry shampoo, the dry shampoo category was up 11.8% in Q1, driven by BATISTE consumption, which was up 20%. We now enjoy a 46.2% market share in dry shampoo.

現在在乾洗洗髮水方面，受 BATISTE 消費量增長 20% 的推動，乾洗洗髮水類別在第一季度增長了 11.8%。我們現在在乾洗香波領域佔有 46.2% 的市場份額。

In the condom category, the condom category was up 4.1% in Q1, while TROJAN consumption was up 5.3%. There again, we gained 80 basis points of market share, thanks to our new TROJAN BARESKIN RAW condom and the success of more targeted marketing.

在安全套類別中，安全套類別在第一季度增長了 4.1%，而 TROJAN 消費增長了 5.3%。由於我們的新 TROJAN BARESKIN RAW 避孕套和更有針對性的營銷的成功，我們再次獲得了 80 個基點的市場份額。

Our most recent acquisitions, THERABREATH mouthwash and Hero are performing extremely well. THERABREATH, which we acquired in December of 2021, had just a great quarter with 70% consumption growth. THERABREATH grew share 6.8 points to 22.5% of the alcohol-free mouthwash. And as promised when we bought the brand, distribution of THERABREATH has doubled since we acquired it in December of 2021. THERABREATH is now the #2 non-alcohol mouthwash brand and the clear #4 in total mouthwash. We expect this brand to be a long-term grower for Church & Dwight.

我們最近收購的 THERABREATH 漱口水和 Hero 表現非常出色。我們於 2021 年 12 月收購的 THERABREATH 剛剛度過了一個不錯的季度，消費量增長了 70%。 THERABREATH 在不含酒精的漱口水中的份額增長了 6.8 個百分點，達到 22.5%。正如我們購買該品牌時所承諾的那樣，THERABREATH 的分銷自我們於 2021 年 12 月收購以來翻了一番。THERABREATH 現在是排名第二的非酒精漱口水品牌和排名第四的透明漱口水品牌。我們預計該品牌將成為 Church & Dwight 的長期成長者。

Now ZICAM, this is a December 2020 acquisition, also delivered strong results this quarter. ZICAM is the #1 brand in the cold shortening segment with a 78% share.

現在 ZICAM，這是 2020 年 12 月的收購，本季度也取得了強勁的業績。 ZICAM 是冷起酥油領域的第一品牌，佔有 78% 的份額。

Now to our latest acquisition, Hero, which grew year-over-year consumption by 43.5% and gained 1.6 share points to achieve a 9.1% market share in the total acne treatment category. And distribution has expanded by 50% since the October acquisition date. And as we said in the release, there continues to be a great deal of excitement around Hero -- about the Hero brand and especially the Hero team.

現在我們最近收購了 Hero，它的消費量同比增長了 43.5%，並獲得了 1.6 個份額點，在整個痤瘡治療類別中佔據了 9.1% 的市場份額。自 10 月收購之日起，分銷範圍擴大了 50%。正如我們在新聞稿中所說的那樣，關於 Hero 品牌，尤其是 Hero 團隊，仍然有很多令人興奮的事情。

From our oldest brand to our recent acquisitions, our brands are driving category growth. I'm going to give you a few examples. ARM & HAMMER liquid laundry detergent, which has a 14% share of the liquid laundry category drove 35% of the category growth. In the dry shampoo category, BATISTE has a category-leading 46% share, but contributed 75% of the category growth. And in the mouthwash category, THERABREATH makes up 11% of the total category but delivered over 50% of the growth in mouthwash.

從我們最古老的品牌到我們最近的收購，我們的品牌正在推動品類增長。我將舉幾個例子。佔洗衣液類別 14% 份額的 ARM & HAMMER 洗衣液推動了 35% 的類別增長。在乾洗香波品類中，BATISTE以46%的份額領跑品類，卻貢獻了75%的品類增長。在漱口水類別中，THERABREATH 佔總類別的 11%，但佔漱口水增長的 50% 以上。

Next up is international. Our international business delivered organic growth of 11.6% in Q1, driven by strong growth in the subsidiaries and double-digit sales growth from our Global Markets Group, and that was quite balanced across all of our global regions. And the growth was headlined by BATISTE, vitamins, FEMFRESH, WATERPIK and Gravol. And as far as the consumer goes, similar to the United States, unemployment remains low in our international countries where we have subsidiaries. However, in many of these markets, particularly in Europe, the consumer is facing inflation in energy and food, but so far, consumption has remained strong.

接下來是國際。我們的國際業務在第一季度實現了 11.6% 的有機增長，這得益於子公司的強勁增長和我們全球市場集團兩位數的銷售增長，並且在我們所有的全球地區都非常平衡。 BATISTE、維生素、FEMFRESH、WATERPIK 和 Gravol 引領了增長。就消費者而言，與美國相似，在我們設有子公司的國際國家，失業率仍然很低。然而，在許多這樣的市場中，尤其是在歐洲，消費者面臨著能源和食品的通脹，但到目前為止，消費依然強勁。

In China, while it is a relatively small market for us, we are experiencing stronger growth in Q1 and remain optimistic about the full year apart.

在中國，雖然這對我們來說是一個相對較小的市場，但我們在第一季度經歷了更強勁的增長，並對全年保持樂觀。

And finally, Specialty Products. Specialty Products organic sales decreased 5.9% primarily due to lower volume in the dairy business as low price imports returned to the U.S. market.

最後，特色產品。特種產品有機銷售額下降 5.9%，這主要是由於低價進口產品返回美國市場導致乳製品業務銷量下降。

I want to wrap up my remarks right now by saying consumption is strong. Our value offerings are performing well as are our premium offerings. Acquisitions are on track. We're ramping up our marketing this year in support of our brands and new product launches. And we expect to have the opportunity to invest even more behind our brands in future quarters.

我想用消費強勁來結束我的發言。我們的超值產品和優質產品表現良好。收購正在進行中。我們今年將加大營銷力度，以支持我們的品牌和新產品的發布。我們希望有機會在未來幾個季度對我們的品牌進行更多投資。

And now, I'm going to turn it over to Rick to give you some more color on Q1.

現在，我將把它交給里克，讓你對第一季度有更多的了解。

Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everybody. We'll start with EPS. First quarter adjusted EPS was $0.85, up 2.4% the prior year. The $0.85 was better than our $0.75 outlook, primarily due to continued strong consumer demand for many of our products, and higher-than-expected gross margins. Reported revenue was up 10.2% and organic sales were up 5.7%. About half of the reported revenue growth year-over-year was Hero. Organic sales were once again driven by pricing in Q1. However, as Matt mentioned, the fact that volume was flat, was encouraging and gives us confidence that we will return to volume growth later this year.

謝謝你，馬特，大家早上好。我們將從 EPS 開始。第一季度調整後每股收益為 0.85 美元，同比增長 2.4%。 0.85 美元優於我們 0.75 美元的預期，這主要是由於消費者對我們許多產品的持續強勁需求以及高於預期的毛利率。報告收入增長 10.2%，有機銷售額增長 5.7%。報告的收入同比增長中約有一半來自 Hero。第一季度的定價再次推動了有機銷售。然而，正如馬特提到的那樣，銷量持平這一事實令人鼓舞，並讓我們相信我們將在今年晚些時候恢復銷量增長。

Matt covered the segments, so I'll go right into gross margin. Our first quarter gross margin was 43.5%, a 90 basis point increase from a year ago, primarily due to improved pricing, productivity and the impact of the Hero acquisition, net of the impact of higher manufacturing costs.

馬特涵蓋了這些細分市場，所以我將直接進入毛利率。我們第一季度的毛利率為 43.5%，比去年同期增長 90 個基點，這主要是由於定價、生產率的提高以及 Hero 收購的影響（扣除製造成本上升的影響）。

Let me walk you through the Q1 bridge. Gross margin was made up of the following: positive 160 basis points impact from price/volume mix; positive 120 basis points from acquisitions; a positive 160 basis points from productivity; and 10 basis points from currency, partially offset by a drag of a 360 basis point impact due to higher manufacturing costs, including inventory charges related to discretionary brands primarily flawless. For the balance of the year, we still expect sequential improvement in gross margin year-over-year expansion throughout the year.

讓我帶您穿過 Q1 橋。毛利率由以下因素構成：價格/數量組合帶來的 160 個基點的正面影響；收購產生正值 120 個基點；生產率正增長 160 個基點；和 10 個基點的貨幣，部分被 360 個基點的拖累所抵消，這是由於更高的製造成本，包括與自主品牌相關的庫存費用，主要是完美的。對於今年餘下時間，我們仍然預計全年毛利率同比擴張將有所改善。

Moving to marketing. Marketing was up $20 million year-over-year. Marketing expense as a percentage of net sales was 8.6% or 70 basis points higher than Q1 of last year. For SG&A, Q1 adjusted SG&A increased 90 basis points year-over-year. Other expense all-in was $23 million, an $8.6 million increase due to higher interest rates.

轉向營銷。營銷收入同比增長 2000 萬美元。營銷費用占淨銷售額的百分比比去年第一季度高 8.6% 或 70 個基點。對於 SG&A，第一季度調整後的 SG&A 同比增長 90 個基點。其他總費用為 2300 萬美元，由於利率上升而增加了 860 萬美元。

Our expectations for interest rates for the remainder of the year remain unchanged from our prior guidance. We do not have any looming long-term debt refinancings. In fact, August of 2027 is the timing of our next maturity.

我們對今年剩餘時間的利率預期與之前的指引保持不變。我們沒有任何迫在眉睫的長期債務再融資。事實上，2027 年 8 月是我們下一次成熟的時間。

For income tax, our effective rate for the quarter was 24.4% compared to 23.2% in 2022, an increase of 120 basis points. We continue to expect the full year rate to be approximately 23%.

對於所得稅，我們本季度的實際稅率為 24.4%，而 2022 年為 23.2%，增加了 120 個基點。我們繼續預計全年增長率約為 23%。

And now to cash. For the first 3 months of 2023, cash from operating activities increased to $273 million due to higher cash earnings and improvements in working capital. We now expect full year cash flow from operations to be approximately $950 million. Previously, we expected $925 million. The $25 million increase is driven by higher cash earnings and an improvement in working capital. Our full year CapEx plan continues to be approximately $250 million as we continue to make capacity investments, and we expect to return to historical levels by 2025.

現在要兌現。 2023 年前 3 個月，由於現金收入增加和營運資金改善，經營活動產生的現金增加到 2.73 億美元。我們現在預計全年運營現金流量約為 9.5 億美元。此前，我們預計為 9.25 億美元。 2500 萬美元的增長是由更高的現金收入和營運資本的改善推動的。隨著我們繼續進行產能投資，我們的全年資本支出計劃仍然約為 2.5 億美元，我們預計到 2025 年將恢復到歷史水平。

And now for the full year outlook. Given the strength of our Q1 results and our confidence for the remainder of the year, we are raising our outlook for sales, EPS, gross margin and cash flow. We now expect the full year 2023 reported sales growth to be approximately 6% to 7% and organic sales growth to be approximately 3% to 4%. We now expect full year EPS in the range of 2% to 4% growth.

現在是全年展望。鑑於我們第一季度的強勁業績以及我們對今年剩餘時間的信心，我們上調了對銷售額、每股收益、毛利率和現金流量的預期。我們現在預計 2023 年全年報告的銷售額增長約為 6% 至 7%，有機銷售額增長約為 3% 至 4%。我們現在預計全年每股收益增長 2% 至 4%。

Given the strength of the business, we see opportunities to make incremental investments in our brands and capabilities in future quarters. We now expect full year reported gross margin to expand approximately 120 basis points. And as we expect pricing and productivity to more than offset inflation.

鑑於業務實力，我們看到了在未來幾個季度對我們的品牌和能力進行增量投資的機會。我們現在預計全年報告的毛利率將擴大約 120 個基點。正如我們預期的那樣，定價和生產率不僅可以抵消通貨膨脹。

Our full year inflation expectations remain unchanged from our previous outlook. Gross margin is expected to benefit from pricing, pack size changes, longer concentration and the full year impact of the higher-margin Hero business. As you read in the release, 2 items of note that are aiding our margin recovery are new litter pricing that went into effect on February 1 and the latest round of concentration for laundry. We intend to increase marketing as a percent of net sales to 10.5%. We continue to expect SG&A both in dollars and as a percent of net sales to increase compared to 2022 as the company's incentive compensation plan returns to normal levels in 2023. As a reminder, our EPS guidance includes a step-up in our level of marketing investment as well as higher SG&A.

我們的全年通脹預期與之前的展望保持不變。預計毛利率將受益於定價、包裝尺寸變化、更長時間的集中以及利潤率較高的 Hero 業務的全年影響。正如您在新聞稿中所讀到的那樣，有助於我們恢復利潤率的 2 個值得注意的項目是 2 月 1 日生效的新垃圾定價和最新一輪的洗衣集中。我們打算將營銷占淨銷售額的百分比提高到 10.5%。隨著公司的激勵薪酬計劃在 2023 年恢復正常水平，我們繼續預計與 2022 年相比，以美元計算的 SG&A 和占淨銷售額的百分比都會增加。提醒一下，我們的 EPS 指導包括提升我們的營銷水平投資以及更高的 SG&A。

For Q2, we have a strong outlook and expect reported sales growth of approximately 7%, organic sales growth of approximately 3% and gross margin expansion and higher marketing spending. The math would show a sequential decline in sales growth, but it's easy to explain. First, distribution pipeline fill for Hero and THERABREATH accounted for 1% of growth in Q1 that will not repeat in Q2. The other is around quarterly comps and how that impacts the current year.

對於第二季度，我們有一個很好的前景，預計報告的銷售額增長約 7%，有機銷售額增長約 3%，毛利率擴大和營銷支出增加。數學會顯示銷售增長連續下降，但這很容易解釋。首先，Hero 和 THERABREATH 的分銷渠道填充佔第一季度增長的 1%，這在第二季度不會重複。另一個是關於季度補償以及它如何影響當年。

For the domestic business, there was a large improvement in case fill in Q1 to Q2 last year, which leads to a tougher comp in Q2 of this year compared to Q1 last year. As an example, our international business in Q1 in 2022, organic growth was 0 and in Q2 it was 6.5% in 2022. As a result, adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.78 per share, a 2.6% increase from last year's adjusted Q2 EPS.

國內業務方面，去年Q1-Q2的case fill有了很大的提升，導致今年Q2的競爭比去年Q1更加艱難。例如，我們的國際業務在 2022 年第一季度的有機增長率為 0，而在第二季度為 6.5%。因此，調整後的每股收益預計為 0.78 美元，比去年調整後的第二季度每股收益增長 2.6% .

And with that, Matt and I would be happy to take questions.

有了這個，馬特和我很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) For your first question comes from the line of Chris Carey from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Chris Carey。

So, I just wanted to ask about (technical difficulty).

所以，我只想問一下（技術難度）。

Chris you are breaking up. Operator, why don't we go to the next question and Chris can get back in the queue.

克里斯，你要分手了。接線員，為什麼我們不轉到下一個問題，Chris 可以回到隊列中。

Right. Sure. No worries. One moment please for your next question.

正確的。當然。不用擔心。請稍等一下您的下一個問題。

We're not hearing anything...

我們什麼都沒聽到...

Right. So for your next question, it comes from the line of Kevin Grundy from Jefferies.

正確的。所以對於你的下一個問題，它來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

Can you guys hear me okay?

你們能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great. So I wanted to start on the gross margin outlook. Some of the key drivers there, maybe how you're seeing that a little bit differently given the strong start to the year and some of the moderation in commodities and sort of tie that in with how you're thinking about potential reinvestment. So the outlook now, up 120 basis points on gross margin year-over-year. The prior outlook was up 100 to 120. So modestly better.

偉大的。所以我想從毛利率前景開始。那裡的一些關鍵驅動因素，也許你對這一點的看法有點不同，因為今年開局強勁，商品市場有所放緩，並將其與你對潛在再投資的思考方式聯繫起來。所以現在展望，毛利率同比增長 120 個基點。之前的前景是 100 到 120。略好一些。

Rick, maybe just comment on how you're seeing the contribution from pricing, commodities and productivity sort of the key levers? And then Matt, maybe you could want to chime in on just how you're thinking about restoring advertising and marketing levels. It was kind of a stair-step function, at least that was sort of the thinking coming into the year. Is there anything maybe accelerating that sort of within the context of advertising and marketing had been 12% of sales, get down to 10% this year, the thinking is 10.5%. How should we be thinking about the potential reinvestment if gross margin exceeds expectations? And I have a follow-up.

里克，也許只是評論一下你如何看待定價、商品和生產力等關鍵槓桿的貢獻？然後馬特，也許你想談談你是如何考慮恢復廣告和營銷水平的。這是一種階梯式功能，至少那是今年的想法。在廣告和營銷的背景下，有沒有什麼可以加速這種情況的，以前佔銷售額的 12%，今年下降到 10%，我認為是 10.5%。如果毛利率超預期，我們應該如何考慮潛在的再投資？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. I'll go first. I think gross margin, we said in the release and in my script that really, we expect gross margin to expand -- the expansion continues to improve throughout the year. We did do better than we expected in Q1. That's why we raised the full year.

是的。謝謝，凱文。我先走了我認為毛利率，我們在新聞稿和我的劇本中說過，我們確實預計毛利率會擴大——全年擴張會繼續改善。我們在第一季度的表現確實比我們預期的要好。這就是我們籌集全年資金的原因。

From a pricing perspective, as we go through the year, there will likely be less pricing overall. There will be less inflation overall, and productivity kind of ramps up as we go through the year as well.

從定價的角度來看，隨著我們度過這一年，整體定價可能會減少。總體而言，通貨膨脹將減少，並且隨著我們度過這一年，生產率也會有所提高。

So all those things we think are -- will be tailwind. And to the extent that we overdeliver on gross margin, that's why we put the investment commentary in the release as well. Matt?

所以我們認為的所有這些東西 - 都會順風。就我們超額提供毛利率而言，這就是我們將投資評論也放在新聞稿中的原因。馬特？

Yes. He asked a good question with respect to marketing. As everybody knows, last year, in 2022, our marketing as a percentage of sales was 10%. It was kind of a low point for us. And what contributed to that was all our difficulties with the fill rate, et cetera. And we said, hey, we're going to build that back. We want to get back to 11%. At least, we go halfway there in 2023. And you can see from -- and we had a really good first quarter. We let some of that flow through to EPS on a full year basis. So we took up our estimate from 0% to 4% to 2% to 4%, but we always take a long-term view with the company.

是的。他問了一個關於營銷的好問題。眾所周知，去年，2022 年，我們的營銷佔銷售額的百分比是 10%。這對我們來說是一個低谷。造成這種情況的原因是我們在填充率等方面遇到的所有困難。我們說，嘿，我們要重建它。我們希望回到 11%。至少，我們在 2023 年完成了一半。你可以看到——我們第一季度的表現非常好。我們讓其中的一部分全年流入 EPS。所以我們把我們的估計從 0% 到 4% 到 2% 到 4%，但我們總是從長遠的角度看待公司。

So yes, to the extent that we have even better performance in future quarters, it's going to give us an opportunity to go higher than 10.5% as a percent of sales. And whenever we're in a position like this, and it's been a few years since we've been flushed, but there's 3 destinations. First is going to be growth. So we'll be looking to pay for marketing. Can we go higher than 10.5%. For international, we have a lot of runway there. So one thing we could do there with respect to regulatory, we get a third-party help to help us knock out product registrations that might have been scheduled for next year or the year after. And there's always R&D projects as well that we can allocate to.

所以是的，如果我們在未來幾個季度有更好的表現，這將使我們有機會超過 10.5% 的銷售額。每當我們處於這樣的位置時，我們已經被沖洗了幾年，但有 3 個目的地。首先是增長。因此，我們將尋求支付營銷費用。我們能否超過 10.5%？對於國際，我們在那裡有很多跑道。因此，我們可以在監管方面做一件事，我們得到第三方幫助，幫助我們取消可能計劃在明年或後年進行的產品註冊。我們也可以分配研發項目。

And then from an efficiency standpoint, we're -- like most companies, we're trying to automate this place. And there are discrete projects we can accelerate to automate some repetitive transaction processing in the company. And also there's always IT investments.

然後從效率的角度來看，我們 - 像大多數公司一樣，我們正在努力使這個地方自動化。我們可以加速一些離散的項目，以自動化公司中的一些重複性交易處理。而且總是有 IT 投資。

And finally, with respect to the environment, we're really focused on our sustainability. So there are projects with respect to sustainability like alternative packaging that we could fast forward as well. So it gives us the degrees of freedom, so we're in a good spot here looking forward for the rest of the year, Kevin.

最後，在環境方面，我們非常關注我們的可持續性。因此，我們也可以快速推進與可持續性相關的項目，例如替代包裝。所以它給了我們自由度，所以我們在這裡期待今年餘下的時間，凱文。

Yes. I appreciate the comment. If I can just get one more, Matt. Just on -- and for Rick as well. Hero seems to be performing much better, I think maybe than folks had modeled, how is it coming in relative to your own expectations?

是的。我很欣賞這個評論。如果我能再得到一個，馬特。就在——還有瑞克。 Hero 似乎表現得更好，我想也許比人們模仿的要好，相對於您自己的期望，它如何？

Presumably better, I would think. And why is that? Is the distribution ramp more quickly? Is the velocity been better? Is it both and sort of why? And then maybe just updated thoughts on your outlook for the brand. And I'll pass it on.

大概更好，我想。為什麼是這樣？分銷坡道是否更快？速度是不是更好了？兩者兼而有之嗎？然後也許只是更新了您對品牌前景的想法。我會把它傳遞下去。

Yes, I'll give you a couple of comments, Kevin. It's Rick. I think both is the answer. Velocities are even better than we expected. And I think distribution gains and TDPs are even better than we expected, faster than we expected. I think in the -- maybe Matt in the script, he commented about TDPs for Hero and we're 50% higher since we bought the business already... .

是的，我會給你一些評論，凱文。是瑞克。我認為兩者都是答案。速度甚至比我們預期的還要好。而且我認為分銷收益和 TDP 甚至比我們預期的要好，比我們預期的要快。我認為在——也許是馬特在劇本中，他評論了 Hero 的 TDP，自從我們已經購買了這家公司以來，我們已經高出 50%……。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question, it comes from the line of Chris Carey from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯凱里。

And sorry about the technical difficulties there in the last question. So I just wanted to ask about your personal care business. Clearly, we're continuing to see a little bit of sequential improvement. I guess, can you just comment on your visibility on this business relative to even a few months ago? And also just what you're seeing from a kind of gap between what we can consumption data, which remains stronger relative to what you're actually delivering from an organic sales standpoint. Just any visibility on when you think given your organic sales will start to look a little bit more than like what we see in the consumption data, which is a little bit better.

對於最後一個問題中的技術困難，我們深表歉意。所以我只想問問你們的個人護理業務。顯然，我們繼續看到一些連續的改進。我想，您能評論一下與幾個月前相比您對這項業務的知名度嗎？而且你從我們可以消費的數據之間的一種差距中看到的，相對於你從有機銷售的角度實際交付的東西來說仍然更強。任何關於你認為有機銷售何時會開始看起來比我們在消費數據中看到的要多一點的可見性，後者要好一些。

Chris, I can hear you. By the way, we lost Chris' line at this time. As should we move on to the next caller? No, we're still live and your line is still open. All right. I'll just go ahead and check here. Yes. By the way, I'm still talk about the talking over the audio.

克里斯，我能聽到你的聲音。順便說一句，我們此時丟失了 Chris 的線路。我們應該轉到下一個來電者嗎？不，我們仍然在線，您的線路仍然暢通。好的。我只是繼續檢查這裡。是的。順便說一句，我還在談論音頻中的談話。

Yes, sure. I'll just try to stop the stream for now then, let's see if that would refresh the connection. So, Okay stopping the stream for now.

是的，當然。我現在只是嘗試停止流，讓我們看看這是否會刷新連接。所以，好的，暫時停止直播。

All right. So good day, ladies and gentlemen. Apologies for the technical difficulties. So we're going to be resuming with a Q&A. (Operator Instructions) So for your next question, it comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman.

好的。女士們先生們，美好的一天。對技術困難表示歉意。所以我們將通過問答來恢復。 （操作員說明）所以對於你的下一個問題，它來自 Lauren Lieberman。

Okay. I feel like reorient myself to the fact that we're live again. Okay, so let me just -- okay, go back to my questions. So I guess consumer domestic was like, let's call it, 500 basis. It was much stronger than what we saw in Nielsen. So I'm just kind of curious what drove that? Kind of anything you can talk to us about untracked channels. Is there any rebuilding of retailer inventory? I know, Rick, you called out the 1 point on Hero and THERABREATH. But I was just curious, anything else, just helpful to know about on track. Hello?

好的。我想重新調整自己，以適應我們又活過來的事實。好吧，讓我——好吧，回到我的問題上來。所以我猜國內消費者就像，讓我們稱之為，500 基礎。它比我們在尼爾森看到的要強得多。所以我很好奇是什麼驅使了它？關於未跟踪的頻道，您可以與我們討論任何事情。是否有任何零售商庫存重建？我知道，Rick，你在 Hero 和 THERABREATH 上獲得了 1 分。但我只是好奇，其他任何事情，都有助於了解軌道上的情況。你好？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Lauren, Just wanted to check if you can hear me. This is the operator.

勞倫，只是想看看你能不能聽到我說話。這是運營商。

I can hear you.

我可以聽見你。

Okay.

好的。

Okay. Now I'm being told -- okay, some people are messaging me that they can hear me, but not here, at the company.

好的。現在有人告訴我——好吧，有些人給我發消息說他們可以聽到我的聲音，但在公司這裡聽不到。

Okay. So for -- okay, so for Mr. Farrell, Mr. Dierker, please try to redial. Just please try to dial back in. Okay. Sounds good.

好的。所以 - 好吧，Farrell 先生，Dierker 先生，請嘗試重撥。請嘗試撥回。好的。聽起來不錯。

So Lauren, please standby. I'm really sorry about the technical difficulty at this time.

勞倫，請待命。對於此時的技術困難，我真的很抱歉。

Hello? Hello?

你好？你好？

Yes, this is Kyle. I can hear you.

是的，這是凱爾。我可以聽見你。

Okay. Well, this is our cellphone. Now we're on this way. Can we pass this in the call.

好的。嗯，這是我們的手機。現在我們在這條路上。我們可以在通話中傳遞這個嗎？

Rick, it's Lauren. I can hear you.

瑞克，是勞倫。我可以聽見你。

Yes, sir connected to the call now?

是的，先生現在接通電話了嗎？

All right. Well, hey, take 3.

好的。好吧，嘿，拿3。

Okay. Did you catch my question or no? Because I can repeat it if you need me to?

好的。你聽懂我的問題了嗎？因為如果你需要我可以重複一遍？

Yes. No, I got it. I think everybody else here too. The question was really, how does consumption match up with organic for domestic?

是的。不，我明白了。我想這裡的其他人也是如此。真正的問題是，國內的消費如何與有機相匹配？

Yes. And just particularly untracked, right? Just curious about untracked channels.

是的。而且特別沒有被追踪，對吧？只是對未跟踪的頻道感到好奇。

Yes, yes. We don't think there's a huge disconnect actually. We -- IRI consumption is 7%. That included some of the Hero consumption. And so that got -- if you back that out, that's around 6%. So 6% is what IRI would say is our organic consumption. And we were at 5.5%. And the drag is, as you would say, it's from untracked channels like WATERPIK, for example, online or other businesses. So we think the disconnect, it's a little bit closer.

是的是的。我們認為實際上並沒有很大的脫節。我們——IRI 消費是 7%。這包括一些英雄消耗。所以這得到了 - 如果你支持它，那就是 6% 左右。所以 6% 是 IRI 所說的我們的有機消費。我們是 5.5%。正如您所說，拖累來自未跟踪的渠道，例如 WATERPIK，在線或其他業務。所以我們認為斷開連接，它更接近一點。

Okay. And there was just the -- you called out there was a one point benefit to total company from pipeline on Hero and THERABREATH when -- which is small. But when you look at the second half of the year, I know you've talked about improving volume and volume now being up to the total company for the full year. I just curious on any updated thoughts on what you've deemed the more kind of discretionary categories and how you're thinking about shipments for WATERPIK, Vitamins as we go through the year?

好的。只是——你說 Hero 和 THERABREATH 的管道對整個公司有一點好處——這很小。但是當你看看今年下半年時，我知道你已經談到了提高銷量和銷量現在已經達到了全年公司的總量。我只是想知道關於您認為更多的自由裁量類別的任何最新想法，以及您如何考慮 WATERPIK、維生素的出貨量，因為我們經歷了這一年？

Yes. And I partially thought I was answering that when I answered Chris' question. I probably got cut off. So in 2022, those 3 businesses, we said in the release, at the end of 2022, they were about a 4% drag for the 3 businesses. In Q1, they were closer to 3% drag. And I said we expect personal care organic to inflect positively in the back half. And a big reason is because those businesses are not a drag. And furthermore, Matt said it in his script, but it was very encouraging that WATERPIK and Vitamins hit their internal plan numbers.

是的。當我回答 Chris 的問題時，我部分地認為我正在回答這個問題。我可能被切斷了。因此，到 2022 年，這 3 項業務，我們在新聞稿中說，到 2022 年底，它們對這 3 項業務造成了大約 4% 的拖累。在第一季度，它們的阻力接近 3%。我說過，我們預計個人護理有機產品將在後半段產生積極影響。一個很大的原因是因為這些業務不是拖累。此外，馬特在他的劇本中說過，但令人鼓舞的是，WATERPIK 和 Vitamins 達到了他們的內部計劃數字。

Okay. So you expect them to those businesses in particular for volumes to be up in the second half? Or not calling that yet and don't need to?

好的。因此，您希望他們特別關注那些業務，以便在下半年增加銷量？或者還沒有調用它並且不需要？

I wouldn't call that yet. I would just say we don't expect them to be a drag in the back half.

我還不會這麼說。我只想說我們不希望他們成為後半場的拖累。

(Operator Instructions) For your next question, it comes from the line of Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）對於您的下一個問題，它來自 Oppenheimer 的 Rupesh Parikh 系列。

Can you also hear me right now?

你現在也能聽到我說話嗎？

We can hear you.

我們能聽到你的聲音。

So I guess just continuing on just Vitamins. Just curious what you're seeing right now in the category. And I believe your fill rates have now improved in Vitamins. So just curious if you're starting to see progress on the share front.

所以我想只是繼續服用維生素。只是好奇您現在在該類別中看到的內容。而且我相信你們的維生素填充率現在已經提高了。所以很好奇你是否開始看到共享方面的進展。

Yes. The vitamin fill rate is improving sequentially month-by-month take November, December, January, February, March, which is a really good thing.

是的。 11 月、12 月、1 月、2 月、3 月，維生素填充率逐月提高，這真是一件好事。

As far as the category goes, if you look at the last few categories for gummies, you may remember in the third quarter last year, a big decline to gummies were at 8%. But then Q4 was down 2% and Q1 down, 2.3%. So I would say it's really stabilized, which is a good thing for us.

就類別而言，如果您查看軟糖的最後幾個類別，您可能還記得去年第三季度，軟糖的大幅下降為 8%。但隨後第四季度下降了 2%，第一季度下降了 2.3%。所以我會說它真的很穩定，這對我們來說是一件好事。

Now we did lose share in the first quarter, again due to our fill rate difficulties. But we anticipated some of that. And we probably benefited a bit because the category was stronger than we expected. So consequently, the vitamin business wasn't a drag on our outlook. They hit their plan for the first quarter. And we think things should improve from here for the rest of the year.

現在我們確實在第一季度失去了份額，同樣是由於我們的填充率困難。但我們預料到了其中的一些。我們可能從中受益，因為該類別比我們預期的要強大。因此，維生素業務並未拖累我們的前景。他們實現了第一季度的計劃。我們認為在今年餘下的時間裡，情況應該會有所改善。

Great. And then maybe just one follow-up question. So I know at the Analyst Day, your team gave expectations for organic growth expectations by segment. So it appears at least consumer domestic, a stronger international story or maybe specialty products is weaker. So just curious if you have updated views on expectations by segment for the year.

偉大的。然後可能只是一個後續問題。所以我知道在分析師日，您的團隊按細分市場給出了有機增長預期。因此，至少國內消費者、更強大的國際故事或特色產品似乎更弱。所以很好奇你是否更新了對今年各細分市場預期的看法。

Yes, sure, Rupesh, it's Rick. Domestically, we're now calling 3% to 4%. International between 5% and 7%. SPD is actually slightly negative and that gets us to the total company organically at 3% to 4%.

是的，當然，Rupesh，是 Rick。在國內，我們現在稱 3% 到 4%。國際在 5% 到 7% 之間。 SPD 實際上略有負數，這讓我們有機地以 3% 到 4% 的比例進入整個公司。

(Operator Instructions) For your next question, it comes from the line of Olivia Tong from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）對於你的下一個問題，它來自 Raymond James 的 Olivia Tong。

I just wanted to get a little bit of an update on your view on the U.S. consumer, particularly any early reads on the incremental pricing you took, impact of compaction and the extent that you've seen any change in promotional levels?

我只是想了解一下您對美國消費者的看法，特別是關於您採取的增量定價的任何早期閱讀、壓實的影響以及您看到的促銷水平變化的程度？

Okay. That's a broad question, Olivia. I'll talk about the U.S. consumer. Look, we're all reading the same data. The U.S. unemployment remains low, although it's clear that job growth is slowing. And the -- also, stats will suggest that the growth -- the year-over-year growth of household income is also decelerating.

好的。這是一個廣泛的問題，奧利維亞。我會談談美國消費者。看，我們都在讀取相同的數據。儘管就業增長明顯放緩，但美國失業率仍然很低。而且——此外，統計數據將表明——家庭收入的同比增長也在放緩。

And I guess the other thing we have coming ahead is the student loan payments resume late summer. I think that may not be a big deal, but 40% of millennials and 25% of Gen X consumers have student loan debt. And I think the combination of all that is contributing to consumers being so [being intense] and trade down from premium to value. What was your second question, Olivia, your second part?

我想我們即將到來的另一件事是學生貸款的支付在夏末恢復。我認為這可能沒什麼大不了的，但 40% 的千禧一代和 25% 的 X 世代消費者都有學生貸款債務。而且我認為所有這些因素的結合導致消費者如此 [being intense] 並且從溢價交易到價值交易。你的第二個問題是什麼，奧利維亞，你的第二部分？

Sorry, it was around compaction, the pricing, any early reads on those and...

抱歉，這是關於壓縮、定價、任何早期閱讀的內容以及......

Yes, the elasticity and -- yes, we've been taking price for the past couple of years. In some cases, we've taken it 2 or 3x depending on the category like litter or laundry detergent. So the gaps -- the price gaps between brands are actually largely similar to they were pre-COVID. And so I would say that there's no story there right now.

是的，彈性——是的，過去幾年我們一直在考慮價格。在某些情況下，根據垃圾或洗衣粉等類別，我們將其提高了 2 倍或 3 倍。所以差距——品牌之間的價格差距實際上與 COVID 之前的價格差距基本相似。所以我會說現在沒有故事。

Yes. And it's kind of early to call any impact from concentration that just rolled out late Q1, but we expect that will be positive.

是的。現在就稱第一季度末剛剛推出的集中帶來的任何影響還為時過早，但我們預計這將是積極的。

And for your next question, it comes from the line of Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley.

對於你的下一個問題，它來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So clearly, a strong Q1 that was better than you expected. The guidance for Q2 look favorable relative to consensus also. Just trying to understand, if you look at work sales and EPS, you didn't necessarily fully flow through the upside in the quarter to the full year. Obviously, a full year raise, but more modest. So just help us understand that there are some specific limiting factors there? Or is it more just the reinvestment you talked about earlier? Conservatism in a volatile environment? And particularly on org sales, the questions on org sales and earnings, but org sales, you're not assuming a sequential acceleration in the back half despite easier comps. So I just wanted to understand that relative to the first half expectations.

很明顯，強勁的第一季度比你預期的要好。相對於共識，第二季度的指導看起來也很有利。只是想了解一下，如果您查看工作銷售額和每股收益，您不一定會在本季度到全年都實現上行。顯然，全年加薪，但更為溫和。所以只是幫助我們理解那裡有一些特定的限制因素？還是只是您之前談到的再投資？動盪環境中的保守主義？特別是在組織銷售方面，關於組織銷售和收入的問題，但組織銷售，儘管比較容易，但你並沒有假設後半部分會連續加速。所以我只想了解相對於上半年的預期。

I think you answered the question for me, Dara. We're 3 months into the (technical difficulty) and we follow a lot of companies. And so we're not alone and having a good first quarter but not necessarily falling along through just because there's always a certainty with respect to the economy. So that has this -- so we do have the freedom now to take a long view and increase our marketing from 10.5% higher. And we have all of the place where we can put money, which I went through with Kevin, growth, efficiency or sustainability projects. They're all available to us. So yes, we feel like we got a lot of flexibility going forward for the rest of the year.

我想你已經為我回答了這個問題，Dara。我們已經進入（技術困難）3 個月了，我們關注了很多公司。因此，我們並不孤單，第一季度表現不錯，但不一定會因為經濟始終存在確定性而下滑。所以這就是 - 所以我們現在確實有自由放眼長遠，並將我們的營銷從 10.5% 提高到更高。我們擁有所有可以投入資金的地方，我在凱文、增長、效率或可持續發展項目中經歷過。我們都可以使用它們。所以是的，我們覺得在今年餘下的時間裡我們有很大的靈活性。

And it's very rare that if you look back at our history that we've ever raised after one quarter. Typically, we talk about that in the second quarter. So this is a bit of a positive.

如果你回顧一下我們在一個季度後籌集的歷史，那是非常罕見的。通常，我們會在第二季度討論這個問題。所以這有點積極。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then can you just give us a little more detail on some of the problem areas recently, WATERPIK, FLAWLESS, Vitamins, just sequential performance in Q1 relative to recent trend. I know you mentioned a couple of them, you were on plan. But I just wanted to get a little more detail on sort of the year-over-year performance, both in terms of consumer demand as well as retailer inventory levels. If you can just give us a little more insight there.

好的。這很有幫助。然後你能不能給我們更多關於最近一些問題領域的細節，WATERPIK，FLAWLESS，Vitamins，只是第一季度相對於近期趨勢的連續表現。我知道你提到了其中的幾個，你在計劃中。但我只想更詳細地了解消費者需求和零售商庫存水平方面的同比表現。如果你能在那裡給我們更多的見解。

Yes, I'll give some insight on WATERPIK. So as I said, we're happy with the progress in WATERPIK. They hit their internal number. So not a drag on our outlook. But the economy is affecting consumer behavior. Consumers are either not buying or trading down to lower-cost flossers.

是的，我將提供一些關於 WATERPIK 的見解。正如我所說，我們對 WATERPIK 的進展感到滿意。他們打了他們的內部號碼。所以不會拖累我們的前景。但經濟正在影響消費者行為。消費者要么不購買，要么降價購買成本更低的牙線器。

On the push side, our Lunch & Learn are back to normal with the high-volume dental offices. And of course, that's very important to recommendations for first purchases of water flossers. But I would say we're -- we went into the year saying it's going to be a little choppy the first 6 months, and I think that the comps will get easier in the second half.

在推動方面，我們的午餐和學習隨著牙科診所的繁忙而恢復正常。當然，這對於首次購買牙線器的建議非常重要。但我會說我們 - 我們進入這一年時說前 6 個月會有點不穩定，我認為下半年的比賽會變得更容易。

And Vitamins -- on the Vitamin side as well, the category performed better than expected. It was only down 2% in the first quarter. And as I said, our fill rates have improved monthly so that now we're getting into the high 80s. And so it's one of the drags on our total company fill rate. And as that progresses, we're going to be in a better position to win back share.

和維生素——在維生素方面，該類別的表現也好於預期。第一季度僅下降了 2%。正如我所說，我們的填充率每月都有所提高，所以現在我們已經進入了 80 年代的高點。因此，這是我們公司總填充率的拖累之一。隨著這一進展，我們將能夠更好地贏回份額。

Yes. So those 2 are stabilized and ending expectations. The third one is FLAWLESS. Retail inventories are moving slower than we expected. That's partly have an impact on our inventory reserves for (inaudible) inventory on our end, but we think we've appropriately captured that from here, and we're moving forward.

是的。所以這兩個是穩定的和結束的期望。第三個是完美的。零售庫存的移動速度低於我們的預期。這在一定程度上對我們的（聽不清）庫存的庫存儲備產生了影響，但我們認為我們已經從這裡適當地捕獲了它，並且我們正在向前邁進。

And for your next question, it comes from the line of Anna Lizzul from Bank of America.

對於你的下一個問題，它來自美國銀行的 Anna Lizzul。

I'm curious around volumes. Volumes were flat in the quarter, and you're now expecting volume to be positive overall for Q2 and the full year. You've commented previously on economization on volume expected in certain categories such as laundry, litter and toothpaste. So I was wondering if you're seeing a reversal in that from consumers to maybe are more accepting of price increases or just more benefit from trade down versus economization?

我對卷很好奇。本季度的銷量持平，您現在預計第二季度和全年的銷量總體為正。您之前曾評論過某些類別（如衣物、垃圾和牙膏）的預期數量節約。所以我想知道你是否看到了消費者的逆轉，他們可能更能接受價格上漲，或者只是從降價交易而不是經濟化中獲益更多？

Yes, I'll start and then Matt probably has a point or two to add too. What we said on volumes, and just to be super clear, was they were flat in Q1, and we expect to inflect positively in the second half and for the full year. So you confer that, that means we think they're going to be negative in Q2. Originally, our outlook was down in Q1, down in Q2 and inflect positively in the back half. So we're encouraged by what happened in Q1. That was largely because that was our largest year-over-year delta in case fill. A year ago, Q1 case fill was 72%. Q2 is 89%. So we just have less volume to make up there.

是的，我會開始，然後 Matt 可能也有要補充的一兩點。我們關於銷量的說法，而且非常清楚，是它們在第一季度持平，我們預計下半年和全年將出現積極變化。所以你認為，這意味著我們認為他們將在第二季度出現負面影響。最初，我們的前景在第一季度下降，在第二季度下降，並在後半段出現積極變化。因此，我們對第一季度發生的事情感到鼓舞。這主要是因為這是我們最大的同比增長增量。一年前，第一季度案例填充率為 72%。 Q2為89%。所以我們只有更少的數量可以彌補。

Yes. So I would probably say volumes continue to impact -- inflect positively in the back half. We're now calling going to be positive for the year, and that's kind of the short story.

是的。所以我可能會說成交量繼續產生影響——在後半部分產生積極影響。我們現在呼籲今年將是積極的，這就是短篇小說。

The only thing I would add to that is that we were out of the gate early in some of our categories with respect to pricing. And so consequently, the passage of time, pricing is going to have less of an impact on us and volume, greater. So we think that the flat line is a great story for the company, and expecting positive volumes for the year, again, this is typically what investors expect from us.

我唯一要補充的是，在定價方面，我們在某些類別中很早就出局了。因此，隨著時間的推移，定價對我們的影響會越來越小，而銷量會越來越大。因此，我們認為持平線對公司來說是一個很好的故事，並且預計今年的銷量會是正的，這通常也是投資者對我們的期望。

Great. And then just in terms of pricing and margins, just curious how would you attribute the benefit to outright pricing versus the package size changes?

偉大的。然後就定價和利潤而言，很好奇您如何將收益歸因於直接定價與包裝尺寸變化？

Yes. We haven't. So it all gets bundled into that price/volume mix on the gross margin bridge. And so our outlook in February was 180 basis point tailwind. It still is that in April, 180 basis point tailwind from price/volume mix. And that would have, for example, the litter list price increase, but it would also have pack size changes that are happening. It would have -- at times, it would have the laundry concentration benefit in there. So it's a mix. We don't break them out any more independently than that.

是的。我們沒有。所以這一切都被捆綁到毛利率橋上的價格/數量組合中。因此，我們 2 月份的前景是 180 個基點的順風。仍然是 4 月份，價格/數量組合帶來 180 個基點的順風。例如，垃圾清單價格會上漲，但包裝尺寸也會發生變化。它會 - 有時，它會在那裡有洗衣集中的好處。所以這是一個混合。我們不會比這更獨立地分解它們。

And for your next question, it comes from the line of Bill Chappell from Truist.

對於你的下一個問題，它來自 Truist 的 Bill Chappell。

Matt, just a little bit more on kind of your commentary about consumer trade down. And I'm just trying to understand how you feel like why you think it's consumer trade down as you're benefiting versus just the power of the ARM & HAMMER brand because especially in laundry detergent, I mean, for years, you've been taking share from kind of the smaller old Unilever fund, whatever their -- whoever owns them now brands. You're looking at a lot of the stores and a lot of those brands have lost some or all of their shelf space and you gained shelf space. So I'm trying to understand like what you're seeing that -- where you think it's trade-down benefit versus just power of the brand benefit that isn't sustainable regardless of what the economy does.

馬特，關於你對消費者貿易下降的評論稍微多一點。我只是想了解你的感受，為什麼你認為這是消費者交易的減少，因為你受益於 ARM & HAMMER 品牌的力量，因為特別是在洗衣粉方面，我的意思是，多年來，你一直從規模較小的舊聯合利華基金中獲取份額，無論它們是什麼——現在擁有它們的品牌。你正在看很多商店，其中很多品牌已經失去了部分或全部貨架空間，而你獲得了貨架空間。所以我試圖理解你所看到的——你認為無論經濟如何，它都是不可持續的品牌利益的權衡利益與品牌利益的力量。

Yes. Well, look, it's a combination of both. Yes, the ARM & HAMMER brand is a very powerful brand. We got a $5.4 billion in sales, $2 billion of it is ARM & HAMMER. So we're able to advertise ARM & HAMMER across lots of different categories. But when we look at the macro numbers, just look at new value laundry detergent grew 9% while premium laundry detergent declined 3%. That's in the category, all brands, premium, all brands, value. So it's clearly happening. That's our biggest category.

是的。好吧，看，這是兩者的結合。是的，ARM & HAMMER 品牌是一個非常強大的品牌。我們的銷售額為 54 億美元，其中 20 億美元來自 ARM & HAMMER。因此，我們能夠在許多不同的類別中為 ARM & HAMMER 做廣告。但是當我們看宏觀數據時，只看新價值洗衣粉增長了 9%，而優質洗衣粉下降了 3%。這是類別，所有品牌，優質，所有品牌，價值。所以這顯然正在發生。這是我們最大的類別。

And then when we look at litter, we see the same thing. We have a black box, which is our premium cat litter. And we've got a yellow box, which serves our value cat litter. And we see these consumers have traded down within the category from the black box to the yellow box. But that's where you have the power of the brand, where people stick with ARM & HAMMER as opposed to move over to a different brand. So I'd say it's probably a combination of both, Bill.

然後當我們看垃圾時，我們看到了同樣的事情。我們有一個黑盒子，這是我們的優質貓砂。我們有一個黃色的盒子，用來裝我們的超值貓砂。我們看到這些消費者已經在從黑盒到黃盒的類別中進行了交易。但這就是您擁有品牌力量的地方，人們堅持使用 ARM & HAMMER 而不是轉向其他品牌。所以我想說這可能是兩者的結合，比爾。

Well, and I guess just to follow-up on that. Are you seeing outsized or accelerating growth for the XTRA brand or for that deep value or more shelf space for the -- being given by retailers for the deep value?

好吧，我想只是跟進一下。您是否看到 XTRA 品牌或深度價值或更多貨架空間的超大或加速增長 - 零售商為深度價值提供？

Yes, yes. No, that's a good one. We said 8 out of 14 brands that gained share in the quarter. We were almost at 9. We just missed it by hair with XTRA. And I would say in recent weeks, XTRA has shown a lot of strength. So we think that, that one could turn positive for us as a share grower in future quarters. That's more evidence of trade down, right? XTRA...

是的是的。不，這是一個很好的。我們說 14 個品牌中有 8 個在本季度獲得了份額。我們快 9 點了。我們只是錯過了 XTRA 的頭髮。我要說的是，最近幾週，XTRA 表現出了很大的實力。因此，我們認為，在未來幾個季度，作為股票增長者，這可能對我們產生積極影響。這是貿易下降的更多證據，對吧？ XTRA...

And for your next question, it comes from the line of Peter Grom from UBS.

對於你的下一個問題，它來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

So I was hoping to get some perspective on what you're seeing from an input cost perspective, kind of building on Kevin's earlier question. Can you maybe just help us understand where you're seeing costs moderate? Where you're seeing costs be stickier?

因此，我希望從投入成本的角度對您所看到的內容有一些看法，這是基於凱文之前的問題。您能否幫助我們了解您認為成本適中的地方？你在哪裡看到成本更具粘性？

And Rick, I know you previously mentioned that you were less hedged on commodities than you typically would be heading into this year. So to the extent that commodities continue to moderate, how quickly could we see that benefit flowing through?

里克，我知道你之前提到過，你對大宗商品的對沖比今年通常要少。因此，就大宗商品繼續放緩的程度而言，我們能以多快的速度看到這種好處流過？

Yes. Okay. Thanks, Peter, for the question. In the release, we said that largely for us and our inflation expectations were unchanged. And there's puts and takes on the commodity side. Transportation costs are down. Our resin, the outlook is slightly higher. Soda ash is higher. Sugar is higher. Some resins are down. Ethylene is down. So it's a mixed bag, but it kind of nets to kind of neutral from our original outlook.

是的。好的。謝謝，彼得，提出這個問題。在新聞稿中，我們表示主要對我們而言，我們的通脹預期沒有變化。在商品方面有看跌期權和看跌期權。運輸成本下降。我們的樹脂，前景略高。純鹼較高。糖分比較高。一些樹脂下降了。乙烯下降了。所以這是一個混合包，但從我們最初的觀點來看，它有點中性。

You're right, we did say at the beginning of the year that we were less hedged this year than we have in many years, just thinking that commodities would come down over time as the recession was potentially looming. And it just takes a few months for costs to actually be down and stay down before you start seeing those commodities trickling to material pricing, and tickle into -- and then you have to buy and they go on the balance sheet. They get expensed to the P&L when you sell it. So I don't know. If you see something down now, it has to be down for a few months and then probably within 6 months, it would flow through the P&L.

你是對的，我們在今年年初確實說過，我們今年的對沖比多年來要少，只是認為隨著經濟衰退可能迫在眉睫，大宗商品會隨著時間的推移而下跌。在你開始看到這些商品逐漸影響材料定價並開始進入之前，成本實際上下降並保持下降只需要幾個月的時間 - 然後你必須購買它們並進入資產負債表。當您出售它們時，它們會計入損益表。所以我不知道。如果你現在看到一些東西下降，它必須下降幾個月，然後可能在 6 個月內，它會流入損益表。

And your next question, it comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So I wanted to just -- one is a clarification. The other one is a real question. One on the whole pricing and mix dynamics and volume. Understandably, you have these dynamics in the second quarter. You've got a help in the first quarter. But the second quarter -- the second half, sorry, as you imply, the new guide and do you still have some pricing to come through? And I understand your lap as everybody else, the pricing that you've put in. But you're putting in some pricing even towards the end of last year and beginning of this year. So we just trying to reconcile should we expect in the second half implied in price/mix in your new guide?

所以我只想-- 一個是澄清。另一個是真題。整體定價和混合動力和數量。可以理解的是，您在第二季度擁有這些動力。你在第一季度得到了幫助。但是第二季度 - 下半年，對不起，正如你所暗示的那樣，新指南你還有一些定價要通過嗎？我和其他人一樣理解你的膝蓋，你所投入的定價。但你甚至在去年年底和今年年初都在進行一些定價。因此，我們只是試圖調和我們是否應該期望下半年在您的新指南中暗示價格/組合？

And then on -- the real question is on the ARM & HAMMER share gains, which obviously have been remarkable. Just wondering on liquid. Your biggest competitor also reduced some price points that were, I think, more sticker shock to some consumers. Have you seen that changed these dynamics as you exit the quarter? Or you continue to gain share in ARM & HAMMER channels?

然後——真正的問題是 ARM & HAMMER 的份額增長，這顯然是非常了不起的。只是想知道液體。你最大的競爭對手也降低了一些價格點，我認為這些價格點對一些消費者來說更令人震驚。當您退出本季度時，您是否看到這些動態發生了變化？或者您繼續在 ARM & HAMMER 渠道中獲得份額？

Yes, I'll take the -- just the first half, second half dynamics of pricing. But Matt's comment is true, a lot of pricing does roll over. But the first half average, we think, is in the 160s. And the second half we think is 180, 190. So the full year is 180. So we do think there's a little bit, and that's really because of our litter price increase in February is -- and the concentration impact that kind of flows through there as well. So those are the 2 things that help in the back half a little bit.

是的，我會採取 - 只是上半年，下半年的定價動態。但馬特的評論是真實的，很多定價確實會滾動。但我們認為，上半年的平均水平是 160 多歲。下半年我們認為是 180、190。所以全年是 180。所以我們確實認為有一點，這真的是因為我們 2 月份的垃圾價格上漲 - 以及這種流動的集中影響那裡也一樣。所以這些是對後半部分有幫助的兩件事。

Yes. And with respect to pricing, obviously, we do watch what happens and what our competitors do in all of our categories. But with respect to any recent price increases, not just in laundry, but elsewhere, it would be too early to tell. We needed a quarter or 2 before we can comment on it.

是的。顯然，在定價方面，我們確實在觀察發生了什麼以及我們的競爭對手在我們所有類別中做了什麼。但關於最近的價格上漲，不僅是洗衣店，還有其他地方，現在下結論還為時過早。我們需要四分之一或兩分鐘才能對其發表評論。

What I will add though is that -- and I think Olivia might ask this question earlier, our friends sold on deal. So if you look at liquid laundry detergent and look at it a year ago, the sold on deal was 31%. And if you look at where it is today, Q1 2023, 31.7%. So another big change year-over-year in promotions. And even sequentially, Q4 was 32% and Q1, 31.7%. So things are pretty stable in the liquid laundry detergent.

不過，我要補充的是——我想奧利維亞可能會早點問這個問題，我們的朋友是在交易中出售的。所以如果你看看一年前的液體洗衣粉，成交量是 31%。如果你看看今天的情況，2023 年第一季度為 31.7%。因此，促銷活動同比發生了另一個重大變化。甚至按順序，第四季度為 32%，第一季度為 31.7%。所以液體洗衣粉中的東西非常穩定。

It's a different story in Cat Litter. Cat Litter, a year ago, sold on deal was 10.7%. And first quarter this year was 14.9%. So it's been kind of a stair step up quarter-by-quarter over the last 5 quarters. In fact, Q4 was 13.9%. So it's up another 100 bps. And historically, and we've talked about this on previous calls, the litter sold on deal is typically much higher in the high teens, 18%, 19%, 20%.

Cat Litter 中的情況則不同。貓砂，一年前，成交價為 10.7%。今年第一季度為14.9%。因此，在過去的 5 個季度中，這有點像一個季度一個季度地上升。事實上，第四季度為 13.9%。所以它又上漲了 100 個基點。從歷史上看，我們在之前的電話會議上討論過這個問題，在十幾歲的青少年中，交易售出的垃圾通常要高得多，分別為 18%、19%、20%。

And I guess the other promotional category would be vitamins. And last year was 38.9%. Sold on deal in Q1 this year is 38.5%. So I think that gives you a little bit more color on what's going on with respect to pricing and promotions.

我想另一個促銷類別是維生素。而去年是 38.9%。今年第一季度的成交率為 38.5%。所以我認為這讓你對定價和促銷方面的情況有了更多的了解。

But do you expect promo to continue to accelerate as we go? I mean I appreciate it's backward-looking, but forward-looking, you're embedding that, obviously, Cat Litter will be one and perhaps Vitamins or you think that this is going to be a similar dynamic?

但是您是否期望促銷會隨著我們的進行而繼續加速？我的意思是我很欣賞它向後看，但向前看，你嵌入的是，很明顯，貓砂將是一個，也許維生素或者你認為這將是一個類似的動態？

Yes. No, but Andrea, we would never telegraph our plans. But typically, we're going to react to competition when it comes to trade.

是的。不，但是安德里亞，我們絕不會傳達我們的計劃。但通常情況下，當涉及到貿易時，我們會對競爭做出反應。

Yes. And I would just say, laundry for Q1, a little lot like Q4 from a promotional perspective like that was going through.

是的。我只想說，從促銷的角度來看，第一季度的洗衣店有點像第四季度。

And just -- I'm sorry, just a clarification, the 180, 190 is the -- that you mentioned on the pricing front, that's on top of -- that's what the incremental pricing would come from those 2 price increases that you mentioned, right?

只是 - 對不起，只是澄清一下，180、190 是 - 你在定價方面提到的，最重要的是 - 這就是你提到的那兩次價格上漲帶來的增量定價， 正確的？

Well, that's for the full year. So there's also partial pricing finishing from last year when we took it midyear, that would be a benefit and a tailwind as well. And that's price/volume mix is that line on break out the 3. So that's also volume growth of higher-margin brands, as an example, year-over-year.

嗯，這是全年的。因此，從去年年中開始，我們也完成了部分定價，這將是一個好處，也是一個順風。這就是價格/銷量組合突破 3 的那條線。因此，這也是高利潤品牌的銷量增長，例如，同比增長。

So there's a lot in that number, but I guess the answer for you, Andrea, is it's a tailwind and the tailwind gets a little bit better in the second half.

所以這個數字有很多，但安德里亞，我想你的答案是順風，下半場順風會好一點。

So you should say like all sudden then according -- I mean, if my math is right, you're going to have a second half with pricing of about 2%, 2-ish. That's what comes out with your guide, if that makes sense?

所以你應該說突然之間然後根據 - 我的意思是，如果我的數學是正確的，你將有一個下半年的定價約為 2%，2-ish。這就是你的指南的結果，如果這有意義的話？

Yes, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that, that 180 basis points is also following the mix that is not just priced by itself.

是的，我不是這麼說的。我只是說，這 180 個基點也遵循不只是自己定價的組合。

And for the next question, it comes from the line of Javier Escalante from Evercore.

對於下一個問題，它來自 Evercore 的 Javier Escalante。

And hopefully, you can hear me. I would like to double-click on the ever -- in the greater degree of conservatism built in guidance and what we're going to see in tracked channels. So one is you have positive volumes in the second half despite of compaction in detergents. Is it -- are we going to see a gap between tracked channels and what you report because you correct for wash loads?

希望你能聽到我的聲音。我想雙擊永遠——在指導中建立更大程度的保守主義，以及我們將在跟踪渠道中看到的內容。因此，一個是儘管洗滌劑壓實，但下半年你的銷量還是不錯的。是嗎 - 我們是否會看到跟踪渠道與您報告的內容之間存在差距，因為您糾正了洗滌負載？

On Hero, doing very well. Do upsized trigger impact -- higher impact of restricted stock?

在Hero上，做得很好。擴大規模是否會引發影響——限制性股票的影響更大？

And thirdly, on the marketing investment, do you -- have you built any sales lift in the second half or just basically investment for the longer term?

第三，關於營銷投資，你有沒有在下半年建立任何銷售提升或只是長期投資？

Yes. I'll take the first 2 and maybe Matt has the third one. But -- and I'll even take your second one first. You threw in RSUs for Hero, our adjusted EPS excludes any impact of amortization related to RSUs. So that's kind of not a factor in our outlook or in our adjusted EPS. So that's apples-to-apples.

是的。我要第一個，也許 Matt 有第三個。但是——我什至會先拿你的第二個。您為 Hero 投入了 RSU，我們調整後的每股收益不包括與 RSU 相關的攤銷的任何影響。所以這不是我們前景或調整後每股收益的一個因素。這就是蘋果對蘋果。

Number one, we don't expect to see much of a gap between shipments and consumption at all. And when you see tracked versus our -- or Nielsen or consumption versus our organic growth in the back half, it should be really close, is the short answer. And in Q2, you may see a little bit of a disconnect again because some of those brands like WATERPIK, as they continue to stabilize and go backwards a little bit, that's largely in untracked channels. Some of Hero growth from a reported perspective is also in untracked channels, whether it's online or a few specialty retailers.

第一，我們預計出貨量和消費量之間不會有太大差距。當你看到跟踪與我們的 - 或尼爾森或消費與我們在後半部分的有機增長時，它應該非常接近，這是簡短的回答。在第二季度，你可能會再次看到一些脫節，因為其中一些品牌，如 WATERPIK，隨著它們繼續穩定並稍微倒退，這主要是在未追踪的渠道中。從報告的角度來看，一些英雄的增長也在未追踪的渠道中，無論是在線還是一些專業零售商。

So I would say, overall, we've kind of talked about -- we had a great quarter. We're raising the full year on reported organic EPS across the board. We've made the comment that we're going to make investments if we continue to outperform on revenue and profits. And Matt?

所以我想說，總的來說，我們已經討論過——我們有一個很棒的季度。我們全面提高了全年報告的有機每股收益。我們已經發表評論說，如果我們繼續在收入和利潤方面表現出色，我們將進行投資。還有馬特？

Yes. As far as marketing goes, we're -- what we have in our forecast is we're modeling 10.5%. But if you look at what our -- what happened in the first quarter, first quarter, we're up 70 bps. And we said for the full year, we'd be up 50. So our track record so far is as we get into a quarter. And to the extent we have the same experience we've had in Q1 in Q2, then we have the opportunity to take it up again more than 50 bps. But it's going to be pay-as-you-go.

是的。就營銷而言，我們 - 我們的預測是我們正在建模 10.5%。但如果你看看我們——第一季度發生了什麼，第一季度，我們上漲了 70 個基點。我們說全年，我們將增加 50 個。所以我們到目前為止的記錄是進入一個季度。如果我們在第二季度擁有與第一季度相同的經驗，那麼我們就有機會再次將其提高 50 個基點以上。但這將是現收現付的。

And if I can follow-up on the detergent side because perhaps I didn't explain myself is that when you compact. Don't you have a negative impact on volume? Or does your reporting basically adjust for wash loads, something that we cannot see in IRI track channels?

如果我可以在洗滌劑方面跟進，因為也許我沒有解釋自己是什麼時候壓實。你不會對音量產生負面影響嗎？或者您的報告是否基本上針對洗滌負載進行了調整，這是我們在 IRI 跟踪頻道中看不到的？

Yes. These compaction levels are not to the extent that happened 5 years ago, 10 years ago, when we were doing 100% compaction. They are a lot more marginal. Round one happened a year ago. This is round 2 for us. And they just -- we don't anticipate them throwing volumes or price off in a major way.

是的。這些壓縮級別沒有達到 5 年前、10 年前我們進行 100% 壓縮時發生的程度。他們更邊緣化。第一輪發生在一年前。這是我們的第 2 輪。他們只是 - 我們預計他們不會以主要方式投放量或降價。

Okay. I think that was the last question. We're going to wrap it up right now. We'll talk to you at the end of the second quarter.

好的。我認為這是最後一個問題。我們現在要結束它。我們將在第二季度末與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。