切遲杜威 (CHD) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Okay, gang. All right, I'll call everybody to attention. Hey, we haven't been together for a few years. The last number were down here was January of 2020. So it's been 3 years. It's really great to see so many familiar faces in the room. We've got a great show for you today. I'm going to start off with the safe harbor statement. I encourage everybody to read that when you have some time. And here's who is here from management today, which have virtually the entire management team. So when we're done with the presentation, everybody will come on up, fill the stage, and then we can do Q&A.

好的，幫派。好吧，我會提醒大家注意。嘿，我們好幾年沒在一起了。最後一個數字在這裡是 2020 年 1 月。所以已經 3 年了。能在房間裡看到這麼多熟悉的面孔，真是太好了。今天我們為您準備了一場精彩的表演。我將從安全港聲明開始。我鼓勵大家在有空的時候讀一讀。這是今天來自管理層的人，他們幾乎擁有整個管理團隊。所以當我們完成演示後，每個人都會上來，坐滿舞台，然後我們可以進行問答。

All right. We've got a pretty packed agenda. Some of it will be familiar to you, but these are all the things we think we want you to walk out of the room knowing more than when you walked in the room. All right. So I want to start with a look back at 2022. So as you all know, we had significant inflation this past year. We had $250 million of increases in COGS year-over-year '22 versus '21. And how we reacted to that, we increased prices both in '21 and in '22. And in some cases, we raised prices more than once. You saw that in laundry and also on litter. We have really great success this year with several of our brands. As you can see on the page here, ARM & HAMMER litter laundry detergent and BATISTE at all-time highs, recked shares. And then if you look at some of our more recent acquisitions, and that would be ZICAM THERABREATH and [HERO] acquired in 2020, '21 and '22, all had double-digit growth and all-time high market shares. And then finally, we know we've experienced a black swan event over the past few years. We know there'll be others in the future. So we've done a lot of work in '21 and '22, spent a lot of money, a lot of effort getting ready for the next one. And then finally, we ended the year strong.

好的。我們的日程排得很滿。其中一些你會很熟悉，但這些都是我們認為我們希望你走出房間時比走進房間時知道的更多的東西。好的。所以我想從回顧 2022 年開始。眾所周知，去年我們經歷了嚴重的通貨膨脹。 22 年與 21 年相比，我們的 COGS 同比增長了 2.5 億美元。我們對此的反應是，我們在 21 年和 22 年都提高了價格。在某些情況下，我們不止一次提高價格。你在洗衣房和垃圾上都看到了這一點。今年我們的幾個品牌取得了巨大的成功。正如您在此處的頁面上看到的那樣，ARM & HAMMER 垃圾洗衣粉和 BATISTE 股價創下歷史新高。然後，如果你看看我們最近的一些收購，那就是 ZICAM THERABREATH 和 [HERO] 在 2020 年、21 年和 22 年收購的，它們都實現了兩位數的增長和歷史最高的市場份額。最後，我們知道過去幾年我們經歷了一場黑天鵝事件。我們知道將來還會有其他人。所以我們在 21 年和 22 年做了很多工作，花了很多錢，付出了很多努力為下一個做好準備。最後，我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年。

So what you see on the slide here that the categories that we're in grew consumption, 13 out of 17. And just as kind of a leave behind, these are the 17 categories that we compete in. So you can take a look at this after class is which categories went up and which categories did not. All right. Now here's a slide that we show every year, and this is a very different slide than we've seen in the 16 years that I've been with Church & Dwight. So the first 15 years with Church & Dwight -- every year, we've had significant TSR. And in many, many years, it's been double digit. And this year, we went backwards. And that's a disappointment to me, it's a disappointment to the management team, to the Board and our shareholders. And so granted, we have that disappointment. But now we're just going to brom ourselves off, take our sows up. We got a great company. We've got great brands, and we're looking ahead with optimism to and we plan on starting another 15-year streak starting in 2023.

所以你在這張幻燈片上看到我們所處的類別增加了消費，17 個類別中有 13 個類別。作為一種落後，這些是我們參與競爭的 17 個類別。所以你可以看一下這個課後是哪些類別上升了，哪些類別沒有上升。好的。現在這是我們每年都會展示的一張幻燈片，這與我們在 Church & Dwight 工作的 16 年裡看到的幻燈片截然不同。因此，與 Church & Dwight 合作的前 15 年——每年，我們都有顯著的 TSR。在很多很多年裡，它一直是兩位數。而今年，我們倒退了。這讓我感到失望，讓管理團隊、董事會和我們的股東感到失望。如此理所當然，我們感到失望。但現在我們只是要脫掉自己，把我們的母豬帶上去。我們有一家很棒的公司。我們有很棒的品牌，我們樂觀地展望未來，我們計劃從 2023 年開始再創 15 年的連續增長。

All right. So why do we have so much confidence in our future. First off, we'll go left to right U.S. So Barry is going to come up in a little while and talk about our plans for the U.S. business and why we expect growth in the future. Mike Reid is going to come up and talk to us about international for a long time. International has been growing at 6% annually. That, by the way, is our model. And he's going to tell you why we believe that to continue in the future. innovation as well. Barry is going to talk about innovation. We're a very innovative company. It's been a big contributor to our top line growth for many, many years. And Barry is going to take you through one innovation, in particular, which is hard ball new leader that we're launching this year, we think could transform the litter category. [Serebbiis] going to come up. She's our Chief Digital Officer. He's going to talk about how digitally savvy we've become on our plans for the future. And finally, the Evergreen model. everybody in the room, particularly long-term holders. We're very familiar with our evergreen model, 3% top line, 8% bottom line growth. That model is healthy long term. We have strong fundamentals in 2023, we think we'll return to that model in 2024.

好的。那麼，為什麼我們對自己的未來有如此大的信心。首先，我們將從左到右美國。所以 Barry 稍後會上來談談我們對美國業務的計劃以及我們預期未來增長的原因。邁克·里德 (Mike Reid) 將上來和我們談論很長一段時間的國際化。國際每年以 6% 的速度增長。順便說一句，那是我們的模型。他會告訴你為什麼我們相信這種情況會在未來繼續下去。創新也是如此。巴里將談論創新。我們是一家非常有創新精神的公司。多年來，它一直是我們收入增長的重要貢獻者。 Barry 將帶您了解一項創新，特別是我們今年推出的硬球新領導者，我們認為它可以改變垃圾類別。 [Serebbiis] 會上來。她是我們的首席數字官。他將談論我們在未來的計劃中變得多麼精通數字技術。最後，常青樹模型。房間裡的每個人，尤其是長期持有者。我們非常熟悉我們的常青模型，3% 的頂線，8% 的底線增長。該模型是長期健康的。我們在 2023 年擁有強大的基本面，我們認為我們將在 2024 年恢復該模式。

All right. So now who we are. So we're a $5.4 billion company. You can see how we split. We're largely a U.S. business, 77% domestic, International and our Specialty Products business, which is our legacy business is a business that the company was founded on, it's about 6% today. So we have 14 power brands. Those 14 power brands make up 85% of our revenues and profits. One brand you won't see up there today is flawless. That's a business that we bought 4 years ago. It obviously didn't turn out the way we had expected as disclosed in the release. But as I said, these 14 power brands drive 85% of our revenues and profits. So here's our formula. We have a balanced and diversified portfolio. I'll take you through some stats in a minute. We have low private label exposure. The weighted average exposure is 12%. And innovation, Barre, is going to take you through a little while, and we are an acquisitive company. We generate lots and lots of cash and the first destination for our cash is a TSR accretive acquisition. So here's some of the diversity stats I want to share with you. So we're 40% value, 60% premium. For as household and personal care split, it's about even 46% household, 48% personal care. And here's our weighted average private label exposure. And this is over a long period of time. It's generally around 12%. That really hasn't changed that much recently. There are the 5 categories that we're most exposed to. You can see on the chart there, see how the private level has moved up and down over time. But it's generally stable even in this environment. And as far as consistent innovation, this is the lineup a lot of the new products we're going to be launching in 2022. The upper left, you see hard ball. I think you're really going to be excited about that when you hear about it later today.

好的。所以現在我們是誰。所以我們是一家價值 54 億美元的公司。你可以看到我們是如何分裂的。我們主要是一家美國企業，77% 是國內、國際和我們的特殊產品業務，這是我們的傳統業務，也是公司成立的業務，今天約為 6%。所以我們有 14 個強大的品牌。這 14 個實力品牌占我們收入和利潤的 85%。你今天不會在那裡看到的一個品牌是完美無缺的。那是我們 4 年前買下的公司。顯然，結果並沒有像我們在新聞稿中披露的那樣預期。但正如我所說，這 14 個強大品牌推動了我們 85% 的收入和利潤。所以這是我們的公式。我們擁有均衡且多元化的投資組合。我會在一分鐘內向您介紹一些統計數據。我們的自有品牌曝光度很低。加權平均敞口為12%。巴雷，創新將帶你度過一段時間，我們是一家收購公司。我們產生了大量的現金，我們現金的第一個目的地是 TSR 增值收購。因此，這裡有一些我想與您分享的多樣性統計數據。所以我們有 40% 的價值，60% 的溢價。對於家庭和個人護理，家庭護理佔 46%，個人護理佔 48%。這是我們的加權平均自有品牌曝光率。這是很長一段時間。一般在12%左右。最近確實沒有太大變化。我們接觸最多的有 5 個類別。你可以在圖表上看到，私人級別是如何隨著時間的推移上下移動的。但即使在這種環境下它通常也很穩定。就持續創新而言，這是我們將在 2022 年推出的許多新產品的陣容。左上角，你會看到硬球。我想當你今天晚些時候聽到它時，你真的會為此感到興奮。

All right. We have a long history of growth through acquisitions. If you look at -- go back 2004, $1.5 billion. We've added almost $4 billion to our top line, and a lot of that is through acquisitions. You can see they're all laid out through the bottom. Almost every year, we add a new brand. And in the year 2000, the only brand we had was ARM & HAMMER. So with 13 of our 14 power brands have acquired -- been acquired since the beginning of the century. And most of those brands are #1 and #2 in their category. And we have very clear acquisition criteria. Got to be #1 or #2 in their categories. Notably, they need to be high-growth and high-margin brands that are fast-moving consumables. We've added fast-moving consumables because of our experience with FLAWLESS. Asset-light -- so we're a company that doesn't invest a whole lot in plants. We like to buy businesses that are already made by third parties, by co-packers. And we like to be able to leverage our considerable supply chain. And then finally, it needs to have a long-term competitive advantage. All right. So the short story is, we have 14 brands today. We hope to have 20 tomorrow.

好的。我們有通過收購實現增長的悠久歷史。如果你看看——回到 2004 年，15 億美元。我們的收入增加了近 40 億美元，其中很多是通過收購實現的。你可以看到它們都是從底部佈置的。幾乎每年，我們都會添加一個新品牌。在 2000 年，我們擁有的唯一品牌是 ARM & HAMMER。因此，我們的 14 個強大品牌中有 13 個已被收購——自本世紀初以來已被收購。這些品牌中的大多數在其類別中排名第一和第二。我們有非常明確的收購標準。在他們的類別中必須是#1 或#2。值得注意的是，它們必須是高增長、高利潤的品牌，屬於快速消費品。由於我們在 FLAWLESS 方面的經驗，我們添加了快速消耗品。輕資產——所以我們是一家不會對工廠進行大量投資的公司。我們喜歡購買已經由第三方、代加工商生產的企業。我們希望能夠利用我們龐大的供應鏈。最後，它需要具有長期的競爭優勢。好的。簡而言之，我們今天有 14 個品牌。我們希望明天有 20 個。

All right. And I think that's it for me. I'm going to pass it over to Rick.

好的。我認為這對我來說就是這樣。我要把它轉給里克。

All right. Thanks, Matt. So we're going to go through quite a few things, Evergreen model, how we finished 2022. We're talking about 2023, and we'll also talk about capital allocation and cash flow. So first off, this is how we begin and end most presentations. This is our organic evergreen model. So we start off with 3% of sales growth. We have gross margin expansion. Of 25 basis points. We have marketing that's usually flat on a percent of sales but higher dollars. We leverage SG&A to get to 50 basis points, and then we expand EPS by about 8%. That is our long-term algorithm. So in Q4, what happened. So in Q4, we had a better-than-expected quarter. We were 300 basis points better on reported sales. Half of that was organic. Half of that was a little bit of FX and then the [HERO] acquisition did better than expected. So thumbs up on reported sales growth thumbs up on organic sales growth. Gross margin was a contraction. That's what we expected. And we've stair-stepped better throughout the entire year in 2022, and we expect that to continue in 2023. Adjusted EPS was $0.62 at the high end of our range, and then cash from operations, I'll talk about on the full year, but we significantly beat our cash flow projections as well. For the full year, we came in around 3.5% reported sales growth versus 3%, about 1.5% versus 1% on organic, and then gross margin was way down. And you heard Matt say, $250 million of year-over-year inflation was the driver behind that. Adjusted EPS was $2.97, high end of the range. And then reported EPS was down 49% or $1.68 and that was really the flawless noncash impairment. And then cash from operations was $885 million versus our outlook of $800 million, and that's really strong cash earnings and improved working capital, primarily inventories were coming down back in line especially for our discretionary businesses, which was good to see.

好的。謝謝，馬特。因此，我們將討論很多事情，常青模型，我們如何完成 2022 年。我們正在談論 2023 年，我們還將討論資本配置和現金流。所以首先，這就是我們開始和結束大多數演示的方式。這是我們的有機常青模型。所以我們從 3% 的銷售額增長開始。我們有毛利率擴張。 25個基點。我們的營銷通常佔銷售額的百分比持平，但美元更高。我們利用 SG&A 達到 50 個基點，然後我們將 EPS 擴大約 8%。這就是我們的長期算法。所以在第四季度，發生了什麼。所以在第四季度，我們有一個好於預期的季度。我們報告的銷售額提高了 300 個基點。其中一半是有機的。其中一半是一點外匯，然後 [HERO] 收購的表現好於預期。因此，對報告的銷售增長表示讚賞，對有機銷售增長表示讚賞。毛利率出現收縮。這就是我們所期望的。我們在 2022 年全年都取得了更好的進展，我們預計這種情況將在 2023 年繼續。調整後的每股收益在我們範圍的高端為 0.62 美元，然後是運營現金，我將全面討論年，但我們也大大超過了我們的現金流量預測。全年來看，我們報告的銷售額增長率約為 3.5%，有機增長率約為 1.5%，而有機增長率約為 1%，然後毛利率大幅下降。你聽到馬特說，2.5 億美元的同比通貨膨脹是其背後的驅動因素。調整後每股收益為 2.97 美元，處於範圍的高端。然後報告每股收益下降 49% 或 1.68 美元，這確實是完美無缺的非現金減值。然後來自運營的現金為 8.85 億美元，而我們的預期為 8 億美元，這確實是強勁的現金收入和改善的營運資金，主要是庫存正在下降，特別是對於我們的可自由支配業務，這是很高興看到的。

Okay. Moving to 2023. So we try to simplify the outlook. We have the detailed outlook on the next page, but this is a chance just to take a step back and say, how are we doing. Our outlook is 0% to 4% the midpoint is 2% EPS growth. Before we get into the investments on marketing, SG&A and the impacts below the line, our core adjusted EPS growth is 10%, double digit. So we're really pleased with how strong the business is performing. We've chosen to make investments in brands and people. And so we're increasing our marketing spend up to 10.5% of sales, and that's about a $30 million investment or a 3% drag on EPS. Incentive comp normalization, and we didn't have a very good incentive comp year this year, back to par is about $30 million or so, and that's another 3% drag. And then interest and taxes is a 2% drag. Here is a detail of the financial outlook. So 5% to 7% reported sales growth, 2% to 4% reported -- 2% to 4% organic sales growth that is in a entities the HERO acquisition. The detail for organic is for the divisions is 2% to 3% for the domestic division, 3% to 5% for international and SPD at 5% to 6%. Gross margin for the first time in a long time expands by 100 to 120 basis points. That is exciting for us, right? We've had a stair step down over the last few years. This is a road to recovery, and we'll get into the details in a minute. Marketing that's the investment I talked about. SG&A is higher, and we'll talk through that. Operating margin is flat. And then other expense, we're calling out as a drag of $110 million. We're $35 million higher on interest expense next year because of hero debt, and we have some variable debt that has rates going up. Effective tax rate is 23%, and then the EPS growth is 0% to 4% and cash is strong, up 5% or so to $925 million.

好的。移動到 2023 年。因此我們嘗試簡化前景。我們在下一頁有詳細的展望，但這是一個退後一步並說我們做得如何的機會。我們的前景是 0% 到 4%，中點是每股收益增長 2%。在我們對營銷、SG&A 和線下影響進行投資之前，我們調整後的核心每股收益增長率為 10%，兩位數。因此，我們對業務的表現非常滿意。我們選擇對品牌和人員進行投資。因此，我們將營銷支出增加到銷售額的 10.5%，這大約是 3000 萬美元的投資或 3% 的每股收益拖累。激勵補償正常化，今年我們沒有很好的激勵補償，回到面值大約 3000 萬美元左右，這又是 3% 的拖累。然後利息和稅收是 2% 的拖累。這是財務前景的詳細信息。所以 5% 到 7% 報告的銷售額增長，2% 到 4% 報告 - 2% 到 4% 的有機銷售增長是在 HERO 收購的實體中。有機部門的詳細信息是國內部門為 2% 至 3%，國際部門為 3% 至 5%，SPD 為 5% 至 6%。毛利率長期以來首次擴大 100 至 120 個基點。這對我們來說很令人興奮，對吧？在過去的幾年裡，我們已經走下了台階。這是一條恢復之路，我們稍後會詳細介紹。營銷就是我談到的投資。 SG&A 更高，我們會討論這個問題。營業利潤率持平。然後是其他費用，我們稱之為 1.1 億美元的拖累。由於英雄債務，我們明年的利息支出增加了 3500 萬美元，而且我們有一些利率上升的可變債務。有效稅率為 23%，每股收益增長率為 0% 至 4%，現金強勁，增長 5% 左右至 9.25 億美元。

Here's a track record of reported sales growth. I don't think we've shown this slide before. We usually just show organic, but we thought we'd show both. So over the last 10 years, we've averaged 6% and of reported sales growth. And in 2023, we expect no different 5% to 7%. Organically, here's the 10-year track record. Our average is around [4]. Our organic model -- Evergreen model is [3], and our range in 2023 is [2 to 4]. Now one of the most important things about organic sales growth is how you get it. And I'd say if you look back at the last 8 to 10 years, most of our growth is volume growth. Historically, our Everbridge model was 3%, then we would have 3% volume growth and pretty much flat on pricing. 2022 is a little bit of an aberration, all the pricing that's happening all over the industry because of all the inflation that's happening all over the industry. But you can see in Q3 of 2022, we had really the low point for volume growth. And we have improvement in Q4. We have further improvement, although negative in Q1, further improvement, although negative in Q2, and then we inflect positively in the back half of 2023 is the expectation. Now moving to gross margin. So 100 and 120 basis points. Why do we believe that we can expand. Inflation is moderating. We still have inflation, it's just moderating. Productivity programs are doing well. margin-accretive acquisition, that's CRO, and we're improving our case fill in a big way. So you can see that 41.9% goes to around at the midpoint, 43% and if you look at the track record, 45% is kind of where we were. And so we have room to run over the next few years. And here's the detailed gross margin. This is the bridge in 2022, we were down 170 basis points, and there is a massive headwind because of inflation. In 2023, we think yes, we still have inflation down 240 basis points, but price volume mix, plus productivity offset inflation for the first time in a long time, and then we have help from our acquisition. So that's how we're up 110 basis points year-over-year.

這是報告的銷售增長記錄。我想我們以前沒有展示過這張幻燈片。我們通常只展示有機產品，但我們認為我們會展示兩者。因此，在過去 10 年中，我們的銷售額平均增長了 6%。到 2023 年，我們預計不會有 5% 到 7% 的變化。有機地，這是 10 年的記錄。我們的平均值約為 [4]。我們的有機模型——長青模型是 [3]，我們 2023 年的範圍是 [2 到 4]。現在關於有機銷售增長最重要的事情之一就是你如何獲得它。我想說，如果你回顧過去 8 到 10 年，我們的大部分增長都是銷量增長。從歷史上看，我們的 Everbridge 模型是 3%，然後我們將有 3% 的銷量增長並且定價幾乎持平。 2022 年有點反常，由於整個行業正在發生的所有通貨膨脹，整個行業正在發生的所有定價。但你可以看到，在 2022 年第三季度，我們確實遇到了銷量增長的低點。我們在第四季度有所改善。我們有進一步的改善，雖然在第一季度為負，但進一步改善，雖然在第二季度為負，然後我們在 2023 年下半年出現積極變化是預期。現在轉向毛利率。所以 100 和 120 個基點。為什麼我們相信我們可以擴展。通貨膨脹正在放緩。我們仍然有通貨膨脹，它只是在緩和。生產力計劃進展順利。增加利潤的收購，即 CRO，我們正在大力改進我們的案例填寫。所以你可以看到 41.9% 接近中點，43%，如果你看看往績記錄，45% 就是我們的水平。因此，我們在接下來的幾年中有運行的空間。這是詳細的毛利率。這是 2022 年的橋樑，我們下跌了 170 個基點，並且由於通貨膨脹而存在巨大的逆風。到 2023 年，我們認為是的，我們的通貨膨脹率仍然下降了 240 個基點，但價格數量組合，加上生產率長期以來首次抵消了通貨膨脹，然後我們從收購中得到了幫助。這就是我們同比增長 110 個基點的方式。

On marketing, so a similar story. We have full year marketing support. We have better product supply. We're going to get to [10.5%]. If you do the simple math, and look at our high water mark back in 2020, it was around 12%. Now remember, we took price these last 3 years, and we don't raise marketing dollars just because we -- the price of the widget went up. So 12.1%, effectively, if you strip out the price increases is around 10.7%. So between 10.5% and 11% is equivalent to that 12%. So by stair stepping up to 10.5%, we really feel good about the support we have for the brands. is higher, and it's higher for a few reasons. HERO has stand-alone SG&A. That business is off and running and doing a great job, $30 million of normalization for incentive comp and equity. And then number three, I also want to leave this group with our long-term evergreen leverage targets remain in place. We have a stair step up in 1 year, but the behavior doesn't change going forward. And we've had consistent strong adjusted EPS growth, low double or high single-digit growth for a long time is the track record. Last year, we took a step back down 1.5%, but we're taking a step forward this year in and we expect that to have further steps forward as we move along. There is a first half, second half story. First half EPS is expect them to be down. Why? Because we had continued choppiness of our discretionary brands. We've kind of telegraphed that last quarter. We said for the next 6 months or so, we have continued happiness for those discretionary businesses like water pickles and even vitamins as we're lapping Omicron impacts. International supply challenges return to normal promotional levels and higher marketing dollars, have higher marketing spend year-over-year in the first half than the second half. And then the second half is impacted by improved productivity, improved global supply. We have volume growth. That was that chart I showed you earlier. Moving on to cash flow. Our free cash flow conversion for many, many years has been industry leading, on average, around 120%. And this past year, we're around 97%. Why is that? Because of the CapEx investment we're making in capacity, laundry, litter vitamins. And then in 2023, we'll also expect free cash flow conversion to be in the [90s]. How do we generate cash? Well, part of it is how we manage working capital. We've got from 52 days cash conversion cycle all the way down to 19 days. So overall, just extremely happy on how we've leveraged our balance sheet and improved our working capital. We took a stair step up in 2022 because we had elevated levels of inventory, primarily for our discretionary businesses. But as I -- as you heard in the Q4 release, we've improved those inventories. We still have more room to go, but we've improved those inventories. And then we have a really strong balance sheet. So we ended the year at 2.1x in 2022, and we're going to -- we expect to end the year at 1.7x. So we have plenty of firepower to do an incremental dealer deals. We have enough room to go up to $3.2 billion of a deal and stay and maintain our investment-grade rating.

在營銷上，類似的故事也是如此。我們有全年的營銷支持。我們有更好的產品供應。我們將達到 [10.5%]。如果你做簡單的數學計算，看看我們在 2020 年的高水位線，大約是 12%。現在請記住，我們在過去 3 年中採用了價格，我們不會僅僅因為我們 - 小部件的價格上漲而籌集營銷資金。所以 12.1%，如果你剔除價格上漲，實際上是 10.7% 左右。所以 10.5% 到 11% 相當於 12%。因此，通過逐步提高到 10.5%，我們對我們對品牌的支持感到非常滿意。更高，而且它更高有幾個原因。 HERO 有獨立的 SG&A。該業務已關閉並運行並且做得很好，3000 萬美元的激勵補償和股權標準化。然後第三，我也想離開這個小組，我們的長期常青杠桿目標仍然存在。我們在 1 年內有一個台階，但行為不會改變。而且我們的調整後每股收益增長一直強勁，長期以來的低兩位數或高個位數增長是過去的記錄。去年，我們後退了 1.5%，但今年我們向前邁進了一步，我們預計隨著我們的前進會有進一步的進步。有上半部、下半部的故事。預計上半年 EPS 會下降。為什麼？因為我們的自主品牌持續波動。我們已經在上個季度發出了電報。我們說過，在接下來的 6 個月左右的時間裡，隨著我們對 Omicron 的影響，我們對水泡菜甚至維生素等可自由支配的業務持續感到高興。國際供應挑戰恢復到正常的促銷水平和更高的營銷費用，上半年營銷支出同比高於下半年。然後下半年受到生產力提高和全球供應改善的影響。我們有銷量增長。那是我之前給你看的那個圖表。繼續現金流。多年來，我們的自由現金流轉換一直處於行業領先地位，平均約為 120%。而在過去的一年裡，我們達到了 97% 左右。這是為什麼？由於我們在產能、洗衣、垃圾維生素方面進行了資本支出投資。然後在 2023 年，我們還預計自由現金流轉換將在 [90 年代]。我們如何產生現金？嗯，部分原因在於我們如何管理營運資金。我們的現金轉換週期從 52 天減少到 19 天。總的來說，我們對如何利用資產負債表和改善營運資金感到非常高興。我們在 2022 年邁出了一步，因為我們的庫存水平提高了，主要是針對我們的全權委託業務。但正如我 - 正如您在第四季度發布中所聽到的那樣，我們已經改善了這些庫存。我們還有更多的發展空間，但我們已經改善了這些庫存。然後我們有一個非常強大的資產負債表。因此，我們在 2022 年以 2.1 倍的速度結束了這一年，我們將 - 我們預計將以 1.7 倍的速度結束這一年。所以我們有足夠的火力來做增量經銷商交易。我們有足夠的空間進行高達 32 億美元的交易，並保持並維持我們的投資級評級。

Okay. Just talking about capital allocation. Number one, we always talk about TSR acre M&A. We want to do the HERO deal. We want to do the THERABREATH deal again and again and again, those businesses are great. Those are the fast moving consumer goods that we're focused on that Matt just mentioned. CapEx organic growth. We'll talk more about that in a minute, NPD, debt reduction and return of cash to shareholders. So this is the capacity slide. laundry, litter, baking sorter vitamins, all have capacity projects in place, technology, sustainability, all those things help drive our organic growth. But overall, we're not a capital-intensive company. Look at a long track record for Church & Dwight. We're around 2% of sales. And in 2022, we took a step up to 3.3% as we started the investment cycle for laundry, litter and vitamins.

好的。只談資本配置。第一，我們總是談論 TSR 英畝併購。我們想做 HERO 交易。我們想一次又一次地進行 THERABREATH 交易，這些業務很棒。這些是我們專注於馬特剛才提到的快速消費品。資本支出有機增長。我們稍後會詳細討論 NPD、債務削減和向股東返還現金。所以這是容量幻燈片。洗衣、垃圾、烘焙分揀機維生素，都有能力項目、技術、可持續性，所有這些都有助於推動我們的有機增長。但總的來說，我們不是一家資本密集型公司。查看 Church & Dwight 的長期業績記錄。我們大約佔銷售額的 2%。到 2022 年，隨著我們開始洗衣、垃圾和維生素的投資週期，我們將增長率提高到 3.3%。

In 2023, we'll be around 4%, 4.5%. And then in 2024, we expect to stay a step down and then in 2025, we return to historical levels. That's our expectation. And then finally, our dividend increase, right? We had a 0% to 4% EPS outlook, and this is the high end of the range. We've been paying a dividend for many, many years, 122 consecutive years. And then finally, I'd like to turn it over to Barry, who's going to talk through MPD and how the U.S. consumer business is doing.

到 2023 年，我們將達到 4%、4.5% 左右。然後在 2024 年，我們預計會繼續下降，然後在 2025 年，我們會回到歷史水平。這是我們的期望。最後，我們的股息增加了，對吧？我們的 EPS 前景為 0% 至 4%，這是該範圍的高端。我們已經連續 122 年支付股息很多年了。最後，我想把它交給巴里，他將通過 MPD 談論美國消費者業務的表現。

Thanks, Rick. Everybody, good afternoon. Nice to be back live with you here. I'm Barry Bruno. I lead our U.S. business, and I'm going to talk to you a little bit about our categories, our brands, a little bit about innovation and then a new marketing campaign. We call it give it the HAMMER. You might have noticed that when you walked in as we've wrapped the building in Orange today. So pretty good work there that I hope you like as much as we do. I may be biased as I lead the U.S. business, but I think our future is pretty bright. We're leaders in growing categories. I'll show you deeper what's going on in those categories in just a little bit, but we're #1 or #2 player in categories which are growing and healthy. We thrive in difficult environments. We've been through a lot over our 150-plus-year history and we thrive in those environments. We bring more consumers in. They stick with us as we emerge from them. And our acquisitions have a lot of room to run. I'm going to talk with you a little bit about ZICAM, a little bit about THERABREATH and about HERO. When I say that we're leaders in healthy growing categories, you can see what's going on here. Green means the category grew in that year, read, it contracted. You can see we've added a few new categories over the years as we bought brands in the cold shortening, mouthwash and acne patch categories, but healthy growth across each of those 6.4% weighted average last year.

謝謝，瑞克。大家下午好。很高興回到這里和你一起生活。我是巴里·布魯諾。我領導我們的美國業務，我將與您談談我們的品類、品牌、創新以及新的營銷活動。我們稱它為 HAMMER。當您走進時，您可能已經註意到了這一點，因為我們今天已將大樓包裹在橙色中。那裡的工作非常好，我希望你和我們一樣喜歡。我在領導美國業務時可能有偏見，但我認為我們的未來非常光明。我們是增長類別的領導者。我會稍微向您展示這些類別中正在發生的更深入的事情，但我們在不斷發展和健康的類別中排名第一或第二。我們在困難的環境中茁壯成長。在我們 150 多年的歷史中，我們經歷了很多，我們在這些環境中茁壯成長。我們帶來了更多的消費者。當我們從他們中脫穎而出時，他們會堅持我們。我們的收購有很大的運行空間。我將與您談談 ZICAM、THERABREATH 和 HERO。當我說我們是健康增長類別的領導者時，您可以看到這裡發生了什麼。綠色表示該類別在那一年增長，閱讀，它收縮。你可以看到，多年來我們在購買冷起酥油、漱口水和粉刺貼劑類別的品牌時增加了一些新類別，但去年這 6.4% 的加權平均值中的每一個都實現了健康增長。

We also know how to hold and grow share, right? 7 of 14 last year is not ideally where we want to be. We had supply challenges and a number of them that we -- that held us back from where we'd like to be. Ultimately, we plan to do far better as we go forward as we aspire to be better than 7 out of 14. That's going to happen as our supply chain improves, right? You can see here where we were last year, Q1 below 80% and improving throughout the year. Some of those supply challenges has made share growth difficult. But as we get into the new year ahead, you can see we're at 93%, growing to 97% through the course of the year. That's good not only for us. it's good for our retailers as we bring growth back to these categories where, again, we're the #1 or #2 player. And you saw this before, we like difficult environments. We do pretty well in challenging environments. Our portfolio split 40% value, 60% premium, allows us to bring new consumers in, in tough economic times and keep them. And as Matt said about private label, relatively low exposure, only 5 of 17 categories have material private label. This is a look at consumption in Q4. So in 13 of 17 categories in Q4, growth took place. You can see some categories that are new to us. If you look at the top cold shortening, if any of you navigated November, December without a cold, the cough, COVID, RSV, I commend you, many of your fellow compatriots here in the U.S. did not do as well, and you can see what drove category growth there. But what I like about this, categories that we've been in for a long time are growing, new categories are growing as well. So let's take a look at some of those categories that matter to Church & Dwight.

我們也知道如何持有和增加份額，對嗎？去年 14 個中有 7 個不是我們想要的理想狀態。我們遇到了供應挑戰，其中有一些是我們 - 這使我們無法達到我們想要的水平。最終，我們計劃在前進的過程中做得更好，因為我們渴望比 14 分中的 7 分更好。隨著我們供應鏈的改進，這將會發生，對嗎？你可以在這裡看到我們去年的情況，第一季度低於 80%，並且全年都在改善。其中一些供應挑戰使份額增長變得困難。但隨著我們進入新的一年，你可以看到我們的比例為 93%，在這一年中增長到 97%。這不僅對我們有好處。這對我們的零售商有好處，因為我們將增長帶回這些類別，我們再次成為排名第一或第二的玩家。你以前也看到過，我們喜歡困難的環境。我們在充滿挑戰的環境中表現出色。我們的投資組合分為 40% 的價值和 60% 的溢價，使我們能夠在經濟困難時期吸引新消費者並留住他們。正如馬特所說的關於自有品牌，曝光率相對較低，17 個類別中只有 5 個具有材料自有品牌。這是第四季度的消費情況。因此，在第四季度的 17 個類別中，有 13 個類別出現了增長。你可以看到一些對我們來說是新的類別。如果你看看最上面的冷起酥油，如果你們中的任何一個人在 11 月、12 月都沒有感冒、咳嗽、COVID、RSV，我讚揚你，你在美國的許多同胞都做得不好，你可以看看是什麼推動了那裡的品類增長。但我喜歡這一點，我們長期從事的類別正在增長，新類別也在增長。因此，讓我們來看看對 Church & Dwight 很重要的一些類別。

Fabric Care. Left-hand side, category growth, right? You can see category growth was 6%, 7%, moderating a little bit in Q3 when the consumer took a step back. And then you can see what church and with growth was on the right-hand side. So while we lagged the point in Q1, we grew faster in Q2, 3x faster than category in Q3 and Q4. And as you all know, when you're growing faster than category, you're gaining share and that led us to an all-time share high, 14.9% as we ended the year. And I want you to take away, that's part of a long-term trend, right? We were at 11.5% share in 2017. We're at 14.9% now consumers who try ARM & HAMMER, love the brand and stay with us over time. And we think that's only going to happen more in this environment, right? You can see where the consumer is trading down from premium into value, which is where ARM & HAMMER squarely sits and we're keeping those consumers, as you saw in our all-time share hide.

織物護理。左側，類別增長，對嗎？你可以看到類別增長為 6%、7%，在第三季度消費者退後一步時有所放緩。然後你可以看到右邊是什麼教會和成長。因此，雖然我們在第一季度落後於這一點，但我們在第二季度的增長速度更快，比第三季度和第四季度的類別快 3 倍。眾所周知，當你的增長速度快於類別時，你的份額就會增加，這使我們的份額在年底達到了歷史最高水平，達到 14.9%。我希望你拿走，這是長期趨勢的一部分，對吧？我們在 2017 年的份額為 11.5%。我們現在的份額為 14.9%，他們嘗試過 ARM & HAMMER，喜歡這個品牌並長期關注我們。我們認為這種情況只會在這種環境下發生更多，對吧？你可以看到消費者正在從溢價交易到價值交易，這就是 ARM & HAMMER 所處的位置，我們正在留住這些消費者，正如你在我們的歷史份額隱藏中看到的那樣。

Litter is another really important category. I'm going to talk to you about innovation in litter. But right now, let me show you where our existing business is double-digit growth each quarter last year, 14%, 12%, you can see what's going on there. And again, the story of share growth here in tough economic times, we're continuing to gain share. You can see where we've gained a point and change over the year. But really, what's going on our value orange box, cat litter is gaining material share again, if you look at Q3, Q4, when the consumer was most stressed and they were trying ARM & HAMMER litter they've moved to us and they're sticking with us. So another story about tough economic times in Church & Dwight persevering. And it's not just economic times that are tough, cough, cold, flu, again, RSV. We really like the addition of ZICAM to our portfolio. You can see over years on the left-hand side how the category has been moving, took a step back in 2021. But in 2022, as consumers were socializing and going out again masks were going away. The category bounced back and ZICAM share of cold shortening has built strength upon strengthens at a [77] share. And actually, if you look at the far right here, we exited in December a [78] share of the category. And again, this is an interesting chart on the left, right? That is influenza reports to the CDC just in November and December of 2022 versus the last 5 years, that gives you a little bit of flavor for how severe the cough/cold season was and flu this year. So that's good, and those are some important categories. We haven't even really talked about acquisitions yet. So I'm going to talk a little bit about mouthwash and acne care. As a reminder, we bought THERABREATH in December of 2021. We bought it HERO in October of 2022. So HERO has only been with us for 90 days. But it's a story of strength to strength and growth. New distribution for THERABREATH plus our WATERPIK (inaudible) outstanding growth and HERO is on the same path. Let me tell you a little bit more about each of those. So THERABREATH sales on the left here. So percentage growth year-over-year, you can see where that business was up 59%, 45%, 50%. Ultimately, though, that growth far faster than the category has led us to an [8%] share of the overall mouthwash market. We're at almost a [20%] share of the alcohol free mouthwash market category, subcategory, right? We're the #2 player there. We're growing as we're investing more in marketing and advertising and distribution. And speaking of distribution, when we last met with you guys, we talked about the huge runway that THERABREATH had. And you can see we're realizing some of that now up 60%, but we still trail all of our main competitors, Actin CREST and LISTERINE were way under skewed. And as a brand that retails for double the category average, we're at about a $10 price point versus a $5 average, retailers are happy to engage us with us in those conversations as we bring a lot of penny profit to the category. So a great track record for THERABREATH breath already, and that's going to continue into the future. HERO, our newest edition. The Acne pass category almost didn't exist 5 years ago. You can see $20 million in retail sales in 2018. It has grown dramatically to $340-plus million fueled by HERO. And you can see the percentage growth for HEROon the right-hand side in each month driving that category growth. And what's remarkable about that, I think HERO was only in distribution in bricks and mortar and Target and Ulta last year, right, on Amazon as well, but only target in Ulta. That's why you can see the TDPs are difficult to calculate even in terms of how small they were. All of that growth is ahead of us as we look to get our fair share and drive more growth, and we're going to be launching in all of the major bricks-and-mortar retailers that you'd expect starting with CVS now and more to come over the course of the year. So the summary for that section, right? They're great categories we compete in. They're growing. They're healthy. We're the #1 or #2 player in most of them. We thrive in difficult environments with the portfolio that's 40% value we bring consumers in and we keep them. And our most recent acquisitions have tons of room to run.

垃圾是另一個非常重要的類別。我要和你談談垃圾的創新。但是現在，讓我向您展示我們現有的業務去年每個季度都以兩位數的速度增長，14%、12%，您可以看到那裡發生了什麼。再一次，在艱難的經濟時期這裡的份額增長的故事，我們正在繼續獲得份額。您可以看到我們在過去一年中取得的進步和變化。但實際上，我們的超值橙色盒子發生了什麼，貓砂再次獲得物質份額，如果你看一下第三季度、第四季度，當消費者壓力最大並且他們正在嘗試 ARM & HAMMER 貓砂時，他們已經轉移到我們這裡並且他們'重新加入我們。因此，關於 Church & Dwight 堅持不懈的經濟困難時期的另一個故事。不僅是經濟困難時期，咳嗽、感冒、流感，再一次，RSV。我們非常喜歡將 ZICAM 添加到我們的產品組合中。您可以在左側看到多年來該類別的變化情況，在 2021 年後退了一步。但在 2022 年，隨著消費者開始社交並再次外出，口罩逐漸消失。該類別反彈，ZICAM 在冷起酥油中的份額在 [77] 的份額上有所增強。實際上，如果你看這裡最右邊，我們在 12 月退出了該類別的 [78] 份額。再一次，這是左邊的一個有趣的圖表，對吧？這是 2022 年 11 月和 12 月向 CDC 報告的流感報告，與過去 5 年相比，這讓您對今年咳嗽/感冒季節和流感的嚴重程度有了一些了解。這很好，這些是一些重要的類別。我們甚至還沒有真正談論過收購。所以我要談談漱口水和粉刺護理。提醒一下，我們在 2021 年 12 月購買了 THERABREATH。我們在 2022 年 10 月購買了 HERO。所以 HERO 只和我們在一起了 90 天。但這是一個力量與力量和成長的故事。 THERABREATH 的新發行版加上我們的 WATERPIK（聽不清）出色的增長和 HERO 在同一條道路上。讓我告訴你更多關於每一個的信息。所以 THERABREATH 的銷量就在左邊。所以百分比同比增長，你可以看到該業務增長了 59%、45%、50%。不過，最終，這種增長速度遠快於同類產品，使我們在整個漱口水市場佔據了 [8%] 的份額。我們在無酒精漱口水市場類別、子類別中幾乎佔有 [20%] 的份額，對嗎？我們是那裡的#2 玩家。隨著我們在營銷、廣告和分銷方面投入更多，我們正在成長。說到發行，當我們上次與你們會面時，我們談到了 THERABREATH 擁有的巨大跑道。你可以看到，我們現在已經意識到其中的一些增長了 60%，但我們仍然落後於我們所有的主要競爭對手，Actin CREST 和 LISTERINE 都處於偏斜狀態。作為一個零售價是同類產品平均價格兩倍的品牌，我們的價格約為 10 美元，而平均價格為 5 美元，零售商很樂意與我們進行這些對話，因為我們為該類別帶來了大量的便士利潤。因此，THERABREATH 的呼吸已經有了很好的記錄，而且這將持續到未來。 HERO，我們的最新版本。 5 年前幾乎不存在 Acne pass 類別。您可以看到 2018 年的零售額為 2000 萬美元。在 HERO 的推動下，它已急劇增長到 340 多萬美元。您可以在右側看到推動該類別增長的每個月 HERO 的百分比增長。值得注意的是，我認為 HERO 去年只在實體店和 Target 和 Ulta 中銷售，對，在亞馬遜上也是如此，但只在 Ulta 中銷售。這就是為什麼你可以看到 TDP 很難計算，即使就它們有多小而言也是如此。所有這些增長都在我們面前，因為我們希望獲得我們的公平份額並推動更多增長，我們將在所有主要的實體零售商中推出您期望從 CVS 開始的現在和在這一年中還會有更多。那麼該部分的摘要，對嗎？他們是我們競爭的重要類別。他們正在成長。他們很健康。我們是其中大多數的#1 或#2 玩家。我們在困難的環境中茁壯成長，我們的產品組合帶來了 40% 的價值，我們將消費者帶入並留住他們。我們最近的收購有很大的運行空間。

And we haven't talked about innovation yet. So I'm going to spend a little bit of time on that. It might surprise you, I'm going to focus on cat litter. Because I think we've got something really noteworthy that our R&D group has created for us. The category, just to give you a look back, we started with our orange box products going back to 1998. We added Black Box, which is our premium back in 2016. We've had a 12% CAGR over decades in the business. That value cat litter, $280 million in retail sales, that's Orange box that's 1 pillar for us. Second pillar, [clump Seal], our premium price litter has been 80% incremental to us, and we think we're on the cusp of lasting our third pillar. We call it hard ball or lightweight litter perfected. Why do we care so much about lightweight later? Well, we've got a 25% share in the total clumping category. We've only got a 5% share in the lightweight category. And lightweight is about a 16% subcategory of the total category. So absolutely going after our fair share there, and we think hard ball is going to help us do it. What is hard ball. It's a new and different kind of litter. It's sorghum, which is a sustainable nonplay lightweight grain. We turn that into virtually indestructible clumps, which makes for easy no mess scoping. And I could tell you more about it, but I'm going to show you a video of some of our scientists having a little bit of fun that I think will bring it to life. Let's play the video, please.

我們還沒有談到創新。所以我要花一點時間在這上面。您可能會感到驚訝，我將專注於貓砂。因為我認為我們的研發團隊為我們創造了一些真正值得注意的東西。這個類別，只是為了讓你回顧一下，我們從 1998 年的橙色盒子產品開始。我們添加了 Black Box，這是我們在 2016 年的溢價。幾十年來，我們的業務複合年增長率為 12%。那個有價值的貓砂，零售額為 2.8 億美元，這是我們的支柱之一的橙色盒子。第二個支柱，[clump Seal]，我們的溢價垃圾已經增加了 80%，我們認為我們正處於維持第三個支柱的風口浪尖。我們稱之為硬球或完美的輕質垃圾。為什麼後來我們這麼關心輕量化？好吧，我們在總結塊類別中佔有 25% 的份額。我們在輕量級類別中只有 5% 的份額。輕量化約佔總類別的 16%。所以絕對追求我們在那裡的公平份額，我們認為硬球會幫助我們做到這一點。什麼是硬球。這是一種全新的、與眾不同的垃圾。它是高粱，它是一種可持續的非農用輕質穀物。我們將其變成幾乎堅不可摧的團塊，從而輕鬆確定範圍。我可以告訴你更多關於它的信息，但我要給你看一段視頻，我們的一些科學家有一點樂趣，我認為這會讓它栩栩如生。請播放視頻。

(presentation)

（推介會）

I like the roof drop as the demo, right? That's a compelling one. Hopefully, that gave you a flavor to what hardball is all about. Again, category benefits, it's surprisingly lightweight yet incredibly strong, it's virtually indestructible clumps, makes cleaning the litter box of breeze. If you've had to clean the litter box at home, you know it's probably one of the least favorite household chores and hard ball makes it far, far easier. And it's sustainable, right? renewable, lightweight, easy to transport as well. So that's only one of our innovations. You can see in the top left corner. We've got innovation across laundry and condoms and acne patches and water flossers and vitamins near prep and smooth, by the way, a great new innovation that's going to make facial hair removal, far, far easier. (inaudible) Spin Brush and we're going to bring there breath to a whole new generation of mouthwash users as we launch our kids line. So lots of innovation across it. Carlos Linares can't be with us here today. He runs R&D and [Leslie Dribelvisis] here. That team has done a great job giving us as marketers incredible innovation to launch. Trying to tell you just about one more thing. We call it Give it to HAMMER. It's our new master brand campaign for ARM & HAMMER. You see it all around the building. And I don't know if technically, we're in a recession or not as judged by economist, but I can tell you our consumer, sure feels that we're in a recession. If you look at the top right-hand corner, that consumer is paying $396 a month more for goods this year than they were a year ago. And that's forcing them to make difficult decisions. 53% are making different choices. 90%, as you might imagine, are anxious and stressed about that. And I grabbed a spot from a consumer that was posted to here before we ever started this campaign, but this is the inspiration. When you worked hard to get a good job, but it doesn't even feel like it mattered. Gas is $5, rent increased by hundreds. Frozen chicken is $25. It's impossible to buy a home and inflation is so high that the Dollar Tree is now the $1.25 tree, right? That's what our consumer is dealing with, and they feel powerless about it. And it's leading to a wide open window for brand reconsideration. Brands that were on autopilot are now being reconsidered. If you look at the bar chart at the bottom right there, 46% of consumers according to a McKinsey study are shop in different brands and 42% plan to add them to their portfolio going forward. And we say, ARM & HAMMER is made for this moment, where the hard-working brand is packed with power, price to be accessible to all and eager to help. And we're launching a new campaign, a new video to consumers next week. We're going to share it with you now. Let's play the video.

我喜歡屋頂下降作為演示，對嗎？這是一個引人注目的。希望這讓您對強硬球的含義有所了解。同樣，類別優勢，它出奇的輕巧但又難以置信的堅固，它幾乎是堅不可摧的團塊，使清潔垃圾箱變得輕而易舉。如果您不得不在家裡清理垃圾箱，您就會知道這可能是最不受歡迎的家務之一，而硬球使它變得非常非常容易。而且它是可持續的，對吧？可再生，重量輕，也便於運輸。所以這只是我們的創新之一。你可以在左上角看到。我們在洗衣、避孕套、粉刺貼、牙線和維他命方面都有創新，順便說一句，這是一項偉大的創新，將使面部脫毛變得非常容易。 （聽不清）Spin Brush，我們將在推出兒童系列時為全新一代漱口水用戶帶來呼吸。它有很多創新。 Carlos Linares 今天不能和我們在一起。他在這裡負責研發和 [Leslie Dribelvisis]。該團隊做得很好，為我們作為營銷人員提供了令人難以置信的創新。想再告訴你一件事。我們稱它為 HAMMER。這是我們新的 ARM & HAMMER 主品牌活動。你可以在建築物周圍看到它。我不知道從技術上講，我們是否正處於經濟衰退之中，正如經濟學家所判斷的那樣，但我可以告訴你，我們的消費者肯定覺得我們正處於衰退之中。如果您查看右上角，該消費者今年每月為商品支付的費用比一年前多 396 美元。這迫使他們做出艱難的決定。 53% 的人正在做出不同的選擇。正如您想像的那樣，90% 的人對此感到焦慮和壓力。在我們開始這項活動之前，我從一個發佈到這裡的消費者那裡搶了一個位置，但這就是靈感。當你努力工作以獲得一份好工作，但它甚至感覺不重要。汽油是 5 美元，租金上漲了數百美元。冷凍雞肉是 25 美元。買房是不可能的，通貨膨脹如此之高以至於美元樹現在是 1.25 美元的樹，對嗎？這就是我們的消費者正在處理的問題，他們對此感到無能為力。它為品牌重新考慮打開了一個敞開的窗口。自動駕駛的品牌現在正在重新考慮。如果你看一下右下角的條形圖，根據麥肯錫的一項研究，46% 的消費者會購買不同的品牌，42% 的消費者計劃在未來將這些品牌添加到他們的產品組合中。我們說，ARM & HAMMER 是為這個時刻而生的，這個勤勞的品牌充滿了力量，所有人都可以負擔得起的價格，並且渴望提供幫助。我們將在下周向消費者推出一個新的活動，一個新的視頻。我們現在將與您分享。讓我們播放視頻。

(presentation)

（推介會）

So we think right message, right brand, right time. We're going to be launching it to consumers on Monday. So you guys have got a sneak peek here. National TV, digital all the influence and social media you'd expect on e-retail and through PR. We're excited about the campaign. We think it's going to bring a whole new generation of consumers back into ARM & HAMMER and they're going to stick with us after. So thank you for your time. I'm going to turn it over to my partner in crime and the leader of all things digital, [Surabhi Pokereal]

所以我們認為正確的信息、正確的品牌、正確的時間。我們將在周一向消費者推出它。所以你們在這裡先睹為快。國家電視台、數字媒體以及您期望的電子零售和公關方面的所有影響力和社交媒體。我們對這次活動感到興奮。我們認為它將把全新一代的消費者帶回 ARM & HAMMER，他們將在之後繼續支持我們。謝謝你的時間。我要把它交給我的犯罪夥伴和所有數字事物的領導者，[Surabhi Pokereal]

Hi, everyone. So good to see you. flatter to be here, leading digital Church & Dwight. My name is Surabhi Pokreal . So I would say digital acceleration is actually a stated and acted upon priority for us because this is a new section, I'll do a little bit state of the union of what the industry is seeing and then give color on what Church & Dwight is seeing. So you will notice here, we say 70% of all purchases in the U.S. are going to be digitally influenced by 2027. Just for context, 60% of all sales in 2023 are already digitally influenced. What that means is not just the sales that we do on Amazon, walmart.com, target.com and so on, but sales that are happening in brick-and-mortar because of how the consumer feels inspired to make decision in store using the digital knowledge they have. So when you're walking the target aisle and looking up a review on some other retailer, that's what we are calling digitally influenced sales. Similarly, the industry also tells us 81% of U.S. consumers are omnichannel shoppers. That is every channel shopper because the consumer doesn't discriminate online or brick-and-mortar. They just want the right -- drives the right value and the right product. And we know from the industry that consumers that shop both online and in-store have a larger basket size. One example on online, how the digital shelf changes, this is a gif image of every hour how our results change and how fund you will have volatile online digital shelf is it literally changes by the minute depending on what you're searching and how the results show up. So we aspire to win on those top 5 to 10 results, so our brands show up and the consumer needs us.

大家好。很高興見到你。很高興來到這裡，領導數字 Church & Dwight。我的名字是 Surabhi Pokreal。所以我想說數字加速實際上是我們聲明和採取的優先事項，因為這是一個新部分，我將對行業所看到的情況做一些聯合狀態，然後對 Church & Dwight 是什麼進行著色看到。所以你會在這裡註意到，我們說到 2027 年，美國 70% 的所有購買將受到數字影響。僅供參考，2023 年所有銷售的 60% 已經受到數字影響。這意味著不僅僅是我們在 Amazon、walmart.com、target.com 等網站上進行的銷售，還意味著實體店中發生的銷售，因為消費者在使用他們擁有的數字知識。因此，當您走過目標通道並查看對其他零售商的評論時，這就是我們所說的受數字影響的銷售。同樣，該行業還告訴我們 81% 的美國消費者是全渠道購物者。這是每個渠道購物者，因為消費者不會歧視在線或實體店。他們只想要正確的——推動正確的價值和正確的產品。我們從業內了解到，同時在網上和實體店購物的消費者購物籃子更大。在線示例，數字貨架如何變化，這是每小時我們的結果如何變化的 gif 圖像，以及您將擁有多變的在線數字貨架的資金是根據您正在搜索的內容以及如何結果顯示。所以我們渴望贏得前 5 到 10 名的結果，這樣我們的品牌就會出現，消費者需要我們。

This is 1 example. We really want to be there where the eyeballs are. So in the last so many years, as we pivot to digital as our choice of channel to communicate with the consumer, be it social, search, programmatic. We want to make those authentic relatable relationships with the consumers and truly make it more edutainment. So while we are educating them, we are also entertaining them and not really throwing a media creative out explicitly. At the same time, the proverbial marketing funnel has so on flattened because the consumer has the right to go from inspiration liking a product, considering to buy it and actually buying it within milliseconds. So you will notice on the right, we are actually doing campaigns where consumers can go, be inspired about say, [Oxiclean] in this case and go buy it at a retailer of choice all from within the creative media. And we see millions of clicks happening that way and flattening the marketing funnel. Let's talk some numbers. Back in 2016, about 6 years back, only 2% of our sales were digital, e-commerce sales. We closed 2022 upwards of 16%. Of course, COVID accelerated this behavior because the consumer chose to buy online when they had no other options. But what we are seeing is when the consumer learns a new behavior you cannot take convenience back from them. It becomes a very sticky behavior, and we see sustained post-COVID momentum, and that's how we see digital sales accelerating for us for all our brands. Saying that we have a digital first ambition actually means that we are pivoting from digital being a capability builder to digital being a business builder. So we come with the commerce worst mindset. We spend a ton of media in overall marketing and a large part of that is digital media. We also are very cognizant that digital cannot be a function by itself, and we need to elevate all boats and which is why we're investing a ton of effort into training and educating "traditional folks" who may not have a digital responsibility and launching educational programs internally.

這是 1 個示例。我們真的很想出現在眼球所在的地方。因此，在過去的這麼多年裡，隨著我們轉向數字作為我們與消費者溝通的渠道選擇，無論是社交、搜索還是程序化。我們希望與消費者建立真正相關的關係，並真正使其更具寓教於樂。因此，在我們教育他們的同時，我們也在娛樂他們，並沒有真正明確地拋棄媒體創意。與此同時，眾所周知的營銷漏斗已經變平，因為消費者有權從喜歡產品的靈感出發，考慮購買並在幾毫秒內實際購買。所以你會注意到右邊，我們實際上正在開展活動，消費者可以去那裡，在這種情況下受到啟發，比如[Oxiclean]，然後去創意媒體中選擇的零售商處購買。我們看到數以百萬計的點擊以這種方式發生並使營銷渠道變平。讓我們談談一些數字。回到 2016 年，大約 6 年前，我們只有 2% 的銷售額是數字電子商務銷售額。我們在 2022 年結束時增長了 16%。當然，COVID 加速了這種行為，因為消費者在別無選擇時選擇了在線購買。但我們看到的是，當消費者學會一種新行為時，你無法從他們那里奪回便利。它成為一種非常粘性的行為，我們看到了持續的後 COVID 勢頭，這就是我們如何看到我們所有品牌的數字銷售加速。說我們有數字第一的雄心實際上意味著我們正在從數字成為能力建設者轉變為數字成為業務建設者。所以我們帶著商業最糟糕的心態來了。我們在整體營銷中花費了大量媒體，其中很大一部分是數字媒體。我們也非常清楚，數字本身不能成為一項功能，我們需要提升所有船隻，這就是為什麼我們投入大量精力培訓和教育可能沒有數字責任的“傳統人士”並推出內部教育計劃。

This is a good example of how in-store and online. We want to make sure that we win with the consumer when she is on her way and doing footfalls in the store. At the same time, we want to make sure our content online is truly thumb stopping. So that we win with her in every single channel. So in store, you want to be at eye level, easily reachable and have the right adjacency. But online, you want to have the right short-form videos, the product descriptions and so on. I'll give an example, like online, every keyword is actually an aisle in itself. So you type a litter, that's your endless aisle. You try in dry shampoo, that's your endless aisle, and we want to win in both of those isles, both in-store and online.

這是店內和網上的一個很好的例子。我們希望確保當消費者正在路上並在商店裡走動時，我們贏得了消費者的青睞。同時，我們希望確保我們的在線內容真正令人印象深刻。這樣我們就可以在每個渠道與她一起獲勝。因此，在店內，您希望與視線平齊、容易到達並且相鄰。但是在網上，您需要正確的短片視頻、產品說明等。我舉個例子，像online，其實每一個關鍵詞本身就是一個通道。所以你打一個垃圾，那是你無盡的過道。您嘗試使用乾洗洗髮水，那是您無盡的通道，我們希望在這兩個小島中獲勝，無論是在店內還是在網上。

Personalization is also a big focus for us. We know that the consumer yearns for a one-to-one kind of connection, and we can no longer serve the same creative to every demographic. So in this example, a fantastic dry shampoo brand, the #1 in the U.S. and with the largest market share, we saw a ton of consumer engagement and much high purchase intent when we started doing creative, which is the right media, the right messaging for the right hair type. We also are conscious that digital being such a fast-moving area, we cannot just accelerate what we already do in digital, but also be mindful of what might come at the helm in the future of. On the left, you will see a lot of examples from [Dain] that is TikTok in China, and you have probably seen many examples of how live streaming is a huge thing in China, and we sold, say, 60,000 bottles BATISTE of but he's in under 5 minutes. At the same time, in the Western world, live streaming is a newer concept because it's not meant as much for social commerce as it is meant for social discovery. So we are partnering with a lot of retailers, Walmart, Amazon included, to see how might live streaming be a bigger concept, and we have experimented a decent amount in this. This keeps us at tip of the spare to make sure we do well, not just what we already do it well in digital, but find newer avenues to scale.

個性化也是我們的一大關注點。我們知道消費者渴望一對一的聯繫，我們不能再為每個人群提供相同的創意。所以在這個例子中，一個很棒的干洗洗髮水品牌，在美國排名第一併且擁有最大的市場份額，當我們開始做創意時，我們看到了大量的消費者參與和很高的購買意願，這是正確的媒體，正確的適合髮型的信息。我們也意識到數字是一個如此快速發展的領域，我們不能僅僅加速我們已經在數字領域做的事情，還要注意未來可能掌舵的東西。在左邊，你會看到很多來自 [Dain] 的例子，就是中國的 TikTok，你可能已經看到很多例子，說明直播在中國是多麼的巨大，我們賣了，比如說，60,000 瓶 BATISTE，但是他不到 5 分鐘。同時，在西方世界，直播是一個較新的概念，因為它對社交商務的意義不如對社交發現的意義大。因此，我們正在與包括沃爾瑪、亞馬遜在內的許多零售商合作，以了解直播如何成為一個更大的概念，並且我們已經在這方面進行了大量試驗。這使我們始終處於備用狀態，以確保我們做得好，不僅僅是我們在數字領域已經做得很好的事情，而是找到更新的擴展途徑。

Our current marketing spend of all the monies we spend in media, 70% is via digital channels. That is a big jump from -- if you see on the left-hand side, about until 2016, 2017, this number was 35%. So large part of the media used to be print, store and TV, where we just had a few asset types, each campaign. And now like Barry was showing, we have a variety of campaigns, everything from video, OTT, social, influencer retail media, of course, and audio that we are able to reach a variety of consumers with dozens of assets per campaign. So we are able to personalize the messaging at the cohort level and get better reach, sufficiency and of course, media ROI for that. All this cannot be done without raising the intellectual capital of the most priced asset in our company, that is our people. We are very committed to raising digital IQ of everybody within the organization and we launched large-scale digital commerce certification programs for not just the people who do digital day in and day out, but the traditional or analog marketers so that nobody will be analog anymore. Everybody has to jump on the digital bandwagon. I'll quote (inaudible) quickly here to say I scare to where the puck is going to be and not where it has been. That's exactly the sentiment will live and breathe in terms of digital acceleration in the company, be it consumer insights and analytics where we want to listen to the consumer using their ratings and reviews, consumer sentiment on social and design new product innovation or get back to them with the right solutions beat our acquisitions with digitally savvy brands like HERO and THERABREATH, who do a fantastic job at elevating all boats within the company. And having a one commercial team mindset where digital is truly a center of acceleration for Church & Dwight. So with that, I will pass it on to my peer in international, that also see the ton of digital acceleration. So that is Mike Reed.

我們目前在媒體上花費的所有營銷費用中，有 70% 是通過數字渠道進行的。這是一個很大的飛躍——如果你在左側看到，大約到 2016 年、2017 年，這個數字是 35%。過去的大部分媒體都是印刷品、商店和電視，我們在每個活動中只有幾種資產類型。現在就像巴里展示的那樣，我們有各種各樣的活動，從視頻、OTT、社交、有影響力的零售媒體，當然還有音頻，我們能夠通過每個活動的數十種資產接觸到各種消費者。因此，我們能夠在隊列級別個性化消息傳遞，並獲得更好的覆蓋面、充分性，當然還有媒體投資回報率。所有這一切都離不開我們公司最有價值資產的智力資本，即我們的員工。我們非常致力於提高組織內每個人的數字智商，我們推出了大規模的數字商務認證計劃，不僅針對日復一日從事數字業務的人員，還針對傳統或模擬營銷人員，這樣就沒有人會再模擬了.每個人都必須跳上數字潮流。我會在這裡快速引用（聽不清）說我害怕冰球會去哪裡，而不是它曾經去過的地方。這正是公司數字加速方面的情緒將存在和呼吸，無論是消費者洞察和分析，我們希望通過他們的評級和評論、消費者對社交的情緒和設計新產品創新來聽取消費者的意見，或者回到他們憑藉正確的解決方案擊敗了我們對 HERO 和 THERABREATH 等精通數字技術的品牌的收購，這些品牌在提升公司內部所有船隻方面做得非常出色。並擁有單一商業團隊的心態，其中數字真正成為 Church & Dwight 的加速中心。因此，我將把它傳遞給我的國際同行，他們也看到了大量的數字加速。這就是邁克·里德。

Thanks, [Ruby]. Great to be here. My name is Mike Great. I run the international and the SPD business for Church & Dwight. So I just want to take the next few minutes to talk about how we're doing in international. And then close with some just updates on our SPD business. So the international story. So from the Evergreen model, we're planning to grow 6% organically each year. And just to give you a little bit of a makeup of the business, we're about $900 million in sales, it's basically 2 different parts. We have our subsidiary markets, which are 6. This is a fully staffed, direct models that we have entities we sell directly to retail in Canada, U.K., France, Germany, Australia and Mexico. That's about 65% of our business. The other 35% runs through our Global Markets Group, which we call GMG. That's essentially -- we work with more than 400 partners and distributor partners around the world in over 100 countries. And then we've actually supported that with 5 regional offices China, Singapore, Panama, the U.K., and most recently, in Mumbai, India, which we opened in March of 2022. If you look back, we've got a very strong track record of growth against that 6% evergreen model going back to 2015. We did take a little bit of a step back in 2022. We've got really strong demand and orders in the system. We did have some supply challenges we referenced earlier in the presentation. And we did have some drag within our China market largely with some lockdowns and some [waterflow] contraction. But overall demand is really, really strong, and we've got a really strong track record.

謝謝，[紅寶石]。很高興來到這裡。我的名字是邁克偉大的。我負責 Church & Dwight 的國際業務和 SPD 業務。所以我只想花幾分鐘時間談談我們在國際上的表現。然後以我們 SPD 業務的一些更新結束。所以國際故事。因此，根據 Evergreen 模型，我們計劃每年實現 6% 的有機增長。只是為了給你一點業務構成，我們的銷售額約為 9 億美元，它基本上是兩個不同的部分。我們有我們的子公司市場，有 6 個。這是一個人員齊全的直接模式，我們有實體直接銷售給加拿大、英國、法國、德國、澳大利亞和墨西哥的零售店。這大約占我們業務的 65%。其他 35% 通過我們稱為 GMG 的全球市場集團運營。這實質上是——我們與全球 100 多個國家的 400 多個合作夥伴和分銷商合作夥伴合作。然後我們實際上通過中國、新加坡、巴拿馬、英國以及最近在印度孟買開設的 5 個區域辦事處來支持這一點，我們於 2022 年 3 月開設了該辦事處。如果你回顧過去，我們有一個非常強大的可追溯到 2015 年的 6% 常青模型的增長記錄。我們確實在 2022 年後退了一點。我們在系統中有非常強勁的需求和訂單。我們確實遇到了我們在演示文稿前面提到的一些供應挑戰。我們在中國市場確實受到了一些拖累，主要是一些封鎖和一些 [waterflow] 收縮。但總體需求真的非常強勁，而且我們的業績記錄非常好。

If I unpack that a little bit, clearly, China has been a drag. But if you actually look at the -- our 6 subsidiary markets as well as 4 out of GMG regions. We have really strong positive growth across the board. Demand is really strong. Our portfolio is performing extremely well. I think as supply chain recoveries and as China starts to recover, we'll be poised to take advantage of that and get back on our evergreen model. The reason we have confidence in that, I'd say it's threefold. One is just the strength of our brand portfolio. Our brands travel extremely well across the world. can frame it up in 3 different ways. Traditionally, and certainly a big part of what we do today is we leverage our U.S. power brand. So ARM & HAMMER, OxiClean, BMS, TROJAN, et cetera. Those brands travel extremely well across the globe. ARM & HAMMER across all segments is our single largest brand and some of those performed extremely well for us. But those are also complemented with a strong international portfolio in the personal care and OTC space, brands like [Sterimar] [Femfresh], (inaudible) are unique brands to the International division, high margin and our high-growth categories, we performed quite strongly there. And of course, we've taken great benefit from our acquisitions that, in many cases, our U.S.-based, we're adding their THERABREATH and HERO to the family in 2023. So really excited about those. So across the portfolio, those are kind of the 3 ways we look at it, but together, gives us a lot to play with internationally.

如果我稍微分析一下，很明顯，中國一直是一個拖累。但如果你真的看看——我們的 6 個附屬市場以及 GMG 區域中的 4 個。我們在各個方面都有非常強勁的正增長。需求真的很強勁。我們的投資組合表現非常出色。我認為隨著供應鏈的複蘇和中國開始復蘇，我們將準備好利用這一點並重新回到我們的常青模式。我們對此有信心的原因，我想說是三方面的。一是我們品牌組合的實力。我們的品牌在世界各地傳播得非常好。可以用 3 種不同的方式構建它。傳統上，當然，我們今天所做的很大一部分是我們利用我們的美國實力品牌。所以 ARM & HAMMER、OxiClean、BMS、TROJAN 等等。這些品牌在全球範圍內傳播得非常好。所有細分市場的 ARM & HAMMER 是我們最大的單一品牌，其中一些品牌對我們來說表現非常出色。但這些也與個人護理和非處方藥領域強大的國際產品組合相輔相成，[Sterimar] [Femfresh] 等品牌（聽不清）是國際部門的獨特品牌，高利潤率和我們的高增長類別，我們表現相當強烈存在。當然，我們從我們的收購中獲益匪淺，在許多情況下，我們總部位於美國，我們將在 2023 年將他們的 THERABREATH 和 HERO 添加到家族中。對這些感到非常興奮。因此，在整個投資組合中，這些是我們看待它的 3 種方式，但加在一起，我們可以在國際上發揮很多作用。

The second part is geographic expansion. So while we've got a great international story, we're still very early in our journey. If you look at most of our peer set, most of the revenues are in the 60% range outside of the U.S. We're in that 17% to 18% range. So we have a long runway to go, lots of geography, lots of brands to go into those geographies. So really excited about the runway ahead.

第二部分是地域擴張。因此，雖然我們有一個偉大的國際故事，但我們的旅程仍處於早期階段。如果你看看我們的大多數同行，大部分收入都在美國以外的 60% 範圍內。我們在 17% 到 18% 的範圍內。所以我們有很長的跑道要走，很多地域，很多品牌要進入這些地域。對前方的跑道感到非常興奮。

And thirdly and equally important is we are making some key investments in the International division. So we continue to invest in e-commerce and digital maturity and growth Similarly, in pricing and revenue management we're adding some supply chain within our Asia community as well as putting infrastructure in people around quality, regulatory, R&D in some of our key emerging markets lay in the APAC region.

第三，同樣重要的是，我們正在對國際部門進行一些關鍵投資。因此，我們繼續投資於電子商務和數字成熟度和增長 同樣，在定價和收入管理方面，我們在亞洲社區內增加了一些供應鏈，並在我們的一些關鍵領域圍繞質量、監管和研發對人員進行基礎設施建設新興市場位於亞太地區。

So overall, a very long runway of growth for international, very strong portfolio of brands. So it's really a matter of continuing to extend our portfolio into new geographies. We'll continue to leverage our acquisitions. THERABREATH and HERO will become really important brands for the portfolio. Most of our growth will continue to come from our global markets group and within our emerging markets, and we're going to continue to invest in key capabilities and resources as we continue to grow.

總的來說，對於國際化、非常強大的品牌組合來說，增長的道路很長。因此，這實際上是繼續將我們的產品組合擴展到新地區的問題。我們將繼續利用我們的收購。 THERABREATH 和 HERO 將成為該組合中真正重要的品牌。我們的大部分增長將繼續來自我們的全球市場集團和我們的新興市場，隨著我們的不斷發展，我們將繼續投資於關鍵能力和資源。

All right. Let's switch gears to Specialty Products. So Specialty Products is aimed to grow 5% organically each year. Just to kind of break that down, it's about a $350 million business. It grew almost 4% this year. 2021, we grew at 12%. It's broken up 2/3, 1/3 between Animal Nutrition, which is 69% and Specialty Chemicals at 31%. The animal productivity is largely prebiotics, probiotics, and food processing safety. It's all under the ARM & HAMMER master brand. So we have a whole host of product lines in order to service the animal productivity space. And just if you go back to 2015, international was not a big part of the business. We have made a conservative effort to move into our global markets, not too similar to our consumer business. 2022, it's 12%, and we'll continue to grow our international footprint. But as we grow our international footprint, we're also going into new species as well. So what used to be largely a dairy business is now cattle, swine and poultry as well. So diversifying also the specie range.

好的。讓我們切換到專業產品。因此，Specialty Products 的目標是每年有機增長 5%。只是把它分解一下，它大約是一項價值 3.5 億美元的業務。今年增長了近 4%。 2021 年，我們以 12% 的速度增長。它在 69% 的動物營養和 31% 的特種化學品之間被分解了 2/3，1/3。動物生產力主要是益生元、益生菌和食品加工安全。這一切都在 ARM & HAMMER 主品牌之下。因此，我們擁有一整套產品線來為動物生產力領域提供服務。如果你回到 2015 年，國際業務並不是業務的重要組成部分。我們為進入我們的全球市場做出了保守的努力，與我們的消費者業務不太相似。到 2022 年，它是 12%，我們將繼續擴大我們的國際足跡。但隨著我們擴大國際足跡，我們也在研究新物種。因此，過去主要從事乳製品業務的現在也包括牛、豬和家禽。因此，物種範圍也多樣化。

So with that, this is probably the last time we'll show this slide. If you go back in history, we often had sort of our dairy business and our own productivity is largely linked to the fluctuations in milk prices. Since we've diversified in terms of our species to include dairy cattle and swine and also are moving internationally, we've been able to smooth out our revenue. So we won't have the ups and down cyclical effect that we've had in past years. So this will be the last time we showed this chart, but I think it's an important context to have much stable revenues moving forward on SPD.

因此，這可能是我們最後一次展示這張幻燈片。如果你回顧歷史，我們經常有一些乳製品業務，我們自己的生產力在很大程度上與牛奶價格的波動有關。由於我們在物種方面已經多樣化，包括奶牛和豬，並且還在國際化，我們已經能夠平滑我們的收入。因此，我們不會像過去幾年那樣出現起起落落的周期性影響。所以這將是我們最後一次展示這張圖表，但我認為這是一個重要的背景，可以讓 SPD 獲得更多穩定的收入。

So overall, trusted brand from a Church & Dwight, but also ARM & HAMMER umbrella brand, both in the animal nutrition and the specialty chemicals. We're very aligned with kind of key trends around prebiotics, probiotics and available and affordable proteins. We've got a diversified around multiple species, and we're growing internationally. So for all those reasons, we're pretty excited about where SPD is headed as well as international. So with that, I will hand back over to Matt Farrell.

所以總的來說，來自 Church & Dwight 的值得信賴的品牌，還有 ARM & HAMMER 繖形品牌，在動物營養和特種化學品方面都是如此。我們非常認同圍繞益生元、益生菌以及可用和負擔得起的蛋白質的主要趨勢。我們圍繞多個物種實現了多元化，並且我們正在國際化發展。因此，出於所有這些原因，我們對 SPD 的發展方向和國際化方向感到非常興奮。因此，我將交還給 Matt Farrell。

Okay. All right. Thanks, Mike. I can try to bring it home here. You haven't seen this slide before, we talk about how we run the company. And this is a snapshot of our consumer business. We have 7 SPUs. You see the first 6 on the left side or the U.S. businesses on international and the far right. So this is how we break down all the brands that we manage and we manage dozens of brands, but you see most of the power brands are listed here. Maybe wondering why ARM & HAMMER appears for Fabric Care, Home Care and Personal Care. In Fabric Care, we have an ARM & HAMMER detergent.

好的。好的。謝謝，邁克。我可以試著把它帶回家。你以前沒看過這張幻燈片，我們談論我們如何經營公司。這是我們消費者業務的快照。我們有 7 個 SPU。您會在左側看到前 6 個，或者在國際和最右側看到美國企業。所以這就是我們如何分解我們管理的所有品牌，我們管理著幾十個品牌，但你會看到大多數有影響力的品牌都列在這裡。也許想知道為什麼 ARM & HAMMER 會出現在織物護理、家庭護理和個人護理方面。在織物護理中，我們有 ARM & HAMMER 洗滌劑。

In Home Care, we have baking soda and litter. And over in Personal Care, we have a toothpaste and under armed et cetera. But we got -- these are all broken down into very manageable businesses. And over an international, as Mike just described, too. We have 1/3 of the business is the GMG, our export business and 2/3 is the subsidiaries Okay. So here are 5 operating principles, which I'm going to kind of walk through. The first thing is leverage brands. So we focus on brands that consumers love. It's not brands consumers like. It's brands consumers love. They're going to stick with you are going to walk out of the store, looking for your brand. The second thing is we've been a long-time friend of the environment.

在家庭護理中，我們有小蘇打和垃圾。在個人護理方面，我們有牙膏和武裝等等。但我們得到了——這些都被分解成非常易於管理的業務。正如邁克剛才所描述的那樣，在國際上也是如此。我們有 1/3 的業務是 GMG，我們的出口業務和 2/3 是子公司 Okay。所以這裡有 5 個操作原則，我將逐步介紹這些原則。首先是槓桿品牌。所以我們專注於消費者喜愛的品牌。這不是消費者喜歡的品牌。這是消費者喜愛的品牌。他們會堅持你會走出商店，尋找你的品牌。第二件事是我們長期以來一直是環境的朋友。

This company was founded in 1846, and the founders of the company were environmentalists and that's continuing to stay. Leverage people I'm going to talk about. We have a wonderful group of people in our company. We have 5,200 employees. We have over $5 billion in sales. We have over $1 million of sales per employee and leverage assets, many of you who are long-term holders now that we're focused on being asset-light. And finally, if you do the first 4 right, you get good returns, but if you're able to make smart acquisitions, integrate them and grow them, you're going to get great returns. And that's what we have gotten over the years. Okay.

這家公司成立於 1846 年，公司的創始人是環保主義者，並且一直堅持下去。利用我要談論的人。我們公司有一群很棒的人。我們有 5,200 名員工。我們的銷售額超過 50 億美元。我們每位員工的銷售額和槓桿資產超過 100 萬美元，現在我們專注於輕資產，你們中的許多人都是長期持有者。最後，如果你做對了前 4 項，你將獲得豐厚的回報，但如果你能夠進行明智的收購、整合併發展它們，你將獲得豐厚的回報。這就是我們多年來得到的。好的。

Leverage brands already mentioned that. We have 14 power brands that make up 85% of our leverage -- of our sales and profits. Friend of the environment, and we'll go in a little bit deeper on that. So you've probably seen this before. It's a good reminder that if you went back to the 19th century, we were putting trading cards in our boxes of baking soda. And those cards were pictures of birds. And they said, save the birds, save the planet. In 1907, we started to use recycled paperboard in our cartons. No one was doing that back then. We were the first to take phosphates of laundry detergent back in the '70s. And we were the first and only sponsor of the first Earth Day. And 20 years later, in 1990, Church & Dwight was still the only corporate sponsor for Earth Day.

利用品牌已經提到了這一點。我們擁有 14 個強大品牌，占我們銷售額和利潤的 85%。環境之友，我們將對此進行更深入的探討。所以你可能以前見過這個。這是一個很好的提醒，如果你回到 19 世紀，我們會把交易卡放在我們的小蘇打盒裡。那些卡片是鳥的照片。他們說，拯救鳥類，拯救地球。 1907 年，我們開始在紙箱中使用再生紙板。當時沒有人這樣做。早在 70 年代，我們就率先採用洗衣粉中的磷酸鹽。我們是第一個地球日的第一個也是唯一的讚助商。 20 年後的 1990 年，Church & Dwight 仍然是地球日的唯一企業贊助商。

More recently, we started plant trees in the Mississippi River Valley. It's trying to offset the carbon docs that we put into the air. And if I go all over to the far right, we now we're committed to science-based targets. So when you plant trees, you remember from fifth grade science you take 2 out of the atmosphere, and science-based targets, what we're focusing on is spending money on CapEx to reduce the amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere. All right. So here are some of our goals. So you say we aim to be 100% carbon neutral by 2025. That means we will have planned enough trees since 2016 to offset all the CO2 we put into the atmosphere. And it's pretty considerable.

最近，我們開始在密西西比河流域植樹。它試圖抵消我們排放到空氣中的碳文檔。如果我走到最右邊，我們現在致力於以科學為基礎的目標。因此，當你種樹時，你記得從五年級科學開始，你從大氣中取出了 2，而基於科學的目標，我們關注的是在資本支出上花錢，以減少我們排放到大氣中的二氧化碳量。好的。所以這是我們的一些目標。所以你說我們的目標是到 2025 年實現 100% 的碳中和。這意味著自 2016 年以來我們將計劃種植足夠多的樹木來抵消我們排放到大氣中的所有二氧化碳。而且相當可觀。

For a small company like ours, we put 350,000 tons of CO2 into the atmosphere annually. So this is really important to us. You see the mention of science-based targets below there. What are we trying to reduce water usage 10% annually and then solid waste recycling, we'd like to recycling 75% of the solid waste from all of our sites. We got a lot of recognition about that, the [FTSE], EPA Green Power. Safer Choice partner, we've been a safer choice partner for the past 7 years.

對於像我們這樣的小公司，我們每年向大氣排放 350,000 噸二氧化碳。所以這對我們來說真的很重要。你會看到下面提到的基於科學的目標。我們試圖每年減少 10% 的用水量，然後回收固體廢物，我們希望從我們所有的站點回收 75% 的固體廢物。我們得到了很多認可，[FTSE]，EPA Green Power。更安全的選擇合作夥伴，在過去的 7 年裡，我們一直是更安全的選擇合作夥伴。

And this is important to our management team. It's important to our employees. It's important to the families of our employees as well, but it's also important to our consumers. So you can see, it's really a top priority for so many consumers today, particularly younger consumers. All right. The fifth principle is to leverage people. So we say we have highly productive people and a place where people matter. When you invest in a company, you bet on people, and you bet ideas. And their ability to execute those ideas. And I can tell you, we have a really strong management team. But it's not just the management team. It's also the 5,000 people that we have in our company. those people are in supply chain. It's 60% of the company. That is the backbone of Church & Dwight. And when you think about what's the culture in Church & Dwight.

這對我們的管理團隊很重要。這對我們的員工很重要。這對我們員工的家屬也很重要，但對我們的消費者也很重要。所以你可以看到，這確實是當今許多消費者，尤其是年輕消費者的頭等大事。好的。第五個原則是藉力人。所以我們說我們擁有高效率的員工和一個以人為本的地方。當你投資一家公司時，你就是在賭人，賭的是想法。以及他們執行這些想法的能力。我可以告訴你，我們有一個非常強大的管理團隊。但這不僅僅是管理團隊。這也是我們公司的 5,000 名員工。這些人在供應鏈中。這是公司的60％。這是 Church & Dwight 的支柱。當您考慮 Church & Dwight 的文化時。

Any member of our management team could take you through this. It's a blue-collar company. That's not a dress code thing. This is how you will go to work every day. It's a roll up your sleeves environment. We've got a lot of high-aptitude people in the company. Many of them have worked in other large CPG companies. Wanted to go smaller where they could make a difference. So it's blue collar, high aptitude, underdog. So we compete against companies that are far, far larger than us and you know who they are.

我們管理團隊的任何成員都可以幫助您解決這個問題。這是一家藍領公司。這不是著裝要求的事情。這就是你每天上班的方式。這是一個捲起袖子的環境。我們公司有很多能幹的人。他們中的許多人曾在其他大型 CPG 公司工作。想要在可以有所作為的地方縮小規模。所以它是藍領，高資質，弱者。因此，我們與比我們大得多的公司競爭，你知道他們是誰。

We never use that as an excuse. And we beat these big companies every day. The fourth thing is getting the facts. So we -- it's a company we're maniacal about numbers and data -- and 1 point of time, people made decisions based on the person who had the gray hairs in the room, the gray beards like me. So I know best, I've got 40 years experience, no more. That is not how business is done. Now it's done based on data, and we are oriented towards data, and we have data sciences in the company now, and we're becoming more and more focused on predictive analytics. Just to kind of round it out, digitally savvy is something that's very important to us.

我們從不以此為藉口。我們每天都在擊敗這些大公司。第四件事是獲取事實。所以我們——這是一家我們對數字和數據狂熱的公司——有一段時間，人們根據房間裡頭髮花白、鬍鬚花白的人做出決定，比如我。所以我最清楚，我有 40 年的經驗，僅此而已。這不是做生意的方式。現在是根據數據來做的，我們是面向數據的，我們公司現在有數據科學，我們越來越專注於預測分析。順便說一句，精通數字技術對我們來說非常重要。

That's something we've focused on over the past 5 or 6 years. Diversity is the last one -- second lesson. And finally, it's take risks. We want to be risk takers in the company. The way we illustrate that, we actually have a picture of Johnny Depp from Pirates of the Caribbean that we use when we're talking about this internally and say, "Hey, this is who we are." So I just want to give you a little bit of background on that. And here's some numbers. Here's all of our competitors and here's our revenue per employee. And I think this is an underappreciated statistic when it comes to investing.

這是我們在過去 5 或 6 年中一直關注的事情。多樣性是最後一課——第二課。最後，它要承擔風險。我們想成為公司的冒險者。我們說明的方式是，我們實際上有一張來自加勒比海盜的約翰尼·德普的照片，當我們在內部討論這個問題時會用它說，“嘿，這就是我們。”所以我只想給你一些背景知識。這是一些數字。這是我們所有的競爭對手，這是我們每名員工的收入。我認為在投資方面，這是一個被低估的統計數據。

We get mix. It makes a big difference when you've got fewer people, you get focused on fixing things, making things better, and it's magic.

我們得到混合。當你的人越來越少，你就會專注於解決問題，讓事情變得更好，這很神奇。

All right. We have a civil compensation structure in the company. Many of you know from following us for many years, it's revenue, gross margin, cash and EPS. and what that does is it makes the company financially literate. So when we're talking about gross. We're talking about gross margin in every part of the company. When I go into a plant, we have 15 plants. We do town halls with all 3 shifts. We'll talk about gross margin. What is it? How do you get it? It's part of our compensation. And then as far as how do you get gross margin? It was good to great is the name of our productivity program. it's a book that everybody has heard about, probably no one's read, but that's the name we use to describe our productivity program.

好的。我們公司有民事賠償結構。你們中的許多人多年來一直關注我們，它是收入、毛利率、現金和每股收益。這樣做的目的是讓公司具備財務知識。所以當我們談論毛病時。我們談論的是公司各個部門的毛利率。當我走進一家工廠時，我們有 15 家工廠。我們做所有 3 班的市政廳。我們將討論毛利率。它是什麼？你怎麼得到它？這是我們補償的一部分。然後至於你如何獲得毛利率？從好到好是我們生產力計劃的名稱。這是一本每個人都聽說過的書，可能沒有人讀過，但這是我們用來描述我們的生產力計劃的名字。

Supply chain optimization, that's also how do we run our plants, what kind of capital we're putting in our plants which plants should we make a product that new products, if you introduce new products that have higher gross margins, it's going to help you as well. And then finally, acquisition synergies. We like to buy businesses that have gross margins that are at or higher than our current gross margins.

供應鏈優化，這也是我們如何經營我們的工廠，我們在我們的工廠投入什麼樣的資金我們應該生產新產品的產品，如果你推出具有更高毛利率的新產品，這將有所幫助你也是。最後，收購協同效應。我們喜歡購買毛利率等於或高於我們當前毛利率的企業。

All right, leverage assets. Rick took you through this before. We pride ourselves on being asset-light. And historically, we've been around 2% of sales. It spiked back in 2009 when we built our gigantic plant in New York, Pennsylvania. It's spiking more recently because we're investing in so many different categories. But that's a good signal. You don't put in new capacity if you don't think you're going to grow. So we're going to be able to fill that up over the next couple of years.

好吧，槓桿資產。瑞克之前帶你了解過這個。我們以輕資產為榮。從歷史上看，我們的銷售額一直在 2% 左右。 2009 年，當我們在賓夕法尼亞州紐約市建造我們的巨型工廠時，它再次飆升。它最近飆升，因為我們投資了很多不同的類別。但這是一個很好的信號。如果您認為自己不會增長，就不會投入新的能力。因此，我們將能夠在未來幾年內填補這一空缺。

All right. And finally, leverage acquisitions. I mentioned that before. If you do that well, you can turn good returns into great returns. All right. And I just want to repeat the acquisition criteria in case you missed it previously. So we invest in brands that are #1 or #2 in their category. You're not going to see us invest in a brand that's #4 -- 4 or 5 and tell you the investor, we're going to drive that to number one. That's not going to happen. The brands are #1 or #2 for reasons. That's what we focus on. They need to be high growth, high margin and fast-moving consumables.

好的。最後，利用收購。我之前提到過。如果你做得好，你可以將良好的回報轉化為豐厚的回報。好的。我只想重複獲取標準，以防您之前錯過了它。因此，我們投資於同類產品中排名第一或第二的品牌。你不會看到我們投資了一個排名第四——第四或第五的品牌，然後告訴你投資者，我們將把它推向第一。那不會發生。由於某些原因，這些品牌排名第一或第二。這就是我們關注的重點。它們需要是高增長、高利潤和快速流動的消耗品。

Asset-light is our preference. We want to be able to leverage our substantial footprint around the world. And again, needs to have a long-term competitive advantage. So with respect to cash, we have 14 brands today, we are like 20 tomorrow. I just want to kind of end on the look ahead. So you saw in the release, we said, "Hey, we got strong fundamentals going into 2023."We got top line strength, both reported and organic. We got gross margin expansion. We've got a terrific new product pipeline, you only heard about one today, but there are many others as well. We're jacking the investment in advertiser. That's going to help us not only in '23, but in future years. Rick took you through the capacity expansion. And finally, we generate lots of cash. And so we're on the hunt for our next power brand. And with that, I'm going to bring up the rest of the management team, and we'll do some Q&A play stump the band for a little while. All right. Come on up gang.

輕資產是我們的偏好。我們希望能夠利用我們在世界各地的大量足跡。再次，需要有長期的競爭優勢。所以關於現金，我們今天有 14 個品牌，明天我們大概有 20 個。我只想結束對未來的展望。所以你在新聞稿中看到，我們說，“嘿，我們在進入 2023 年時擁有強勁的基本面。”我們獲得了頂線實力，無論是報告的還是有機的。我們獲得了毛利率擴張。我們有一個了不起的新產品管道，你今天只聽說過一個，但還有很多其他的。我們正在增加對廣告商的投資。這不僅會在 23 年幫助我們，而且在未來幾年也會幫助我們。 Rick 帶您完成了擴容。最後，我們產生了大量現金。因此，我們正在尋找下一個強大的品牌。有了這個，我將召集管理團隊的其他成員，我們將做一些問答遊戲，讓樂隊玩一會兒。好的。來幫派吧

All right, Kevin, I'm going to call on you first.

好的，凱文，我會先拜訪你。

There's a microphone coming right down.

有一個麥克風正在下降。

No, we want to get you a mic.

不，我們想給你買個麥克風。

Great. Kevin Grundy, Jefferies. So thank you for the presentation. A question for the group with Matt certainly start with you. So last year, certainly, probably one of the more challenging to get that the most challenging yet that the company has dealt with the macro economic environment, excuse me, certainly challenged, but it was for your competition as well. So as you kind of do a postmortem on the year and you kind of think about supply chain, you think about your portfolio, you think about your relationships with retailers. What are sort of like the biggest learnings would you say operationally for the company? And then looking forward, what's the message for the investment community that there should still be a lot of confidence in the Evergreen target?

偉大的。傑富瑞的凱文格倫迪。謝謝你的介紹。與 Matt 一起向小組提出的問題肯定是從你開始的。所以去年，當然，可能是公司應對宏觀經濟環境最具挑戰性的一年，對不起，當然是挑戰，但這也是為了你的競爭。因此，當你對這一年進行事後分析時，你會考慮供應鏈，考慮你的投資組合，考慮你與零售商的關係。您認為公司在運營方面最大的收穫是什麼？然後展望未來，投資界應該對 Evergreen 目標仍然充滿信心的信息是什麼？

Yes. Okay. It's quite a big question. I think every companies have flexibility and so it creates options. And I think going into the COVID, the pandemic and certainly the recession this past year, on our supply chain side, we didn't have the options. I think less than 15% of our raw materials had redundancy. And our target right now is to have 50% redundancy. So we've come a long way over the last couple of years. And that's why I said earlier that we're focused on -- be ready for the next black swan event. As far as the portfolio goes, 80% of our portfolio did exceedingly well. And we had 20% of the portfolio went backwards.

是的。好的。這是一個很大的問題。我認為每家公司都有靈活性，因此它創造了選擇。而且我認為，在我們的供應鏈方面，進入 COVID、大流行以及過去一年的經濟衰退時，我們沒有其他選擇。我認為我們只有不到 15% 的原材料有冗餘。我們現在的目標是擁有 50% 的冗餘。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們取得了長足的進步。這就是為什麼我早些時候說我們專注於——為下一次黑天鵝事件做好準備。就投資組合而言，我們 80% 的投資組合表現非常出色。我們有 20% 的投資組合倒退了。

And some of it is self-inflicted, and that is with respect to vitamins and our ability to supply. That has certainly hurt us both on sales as well as in the market share, but we're starting to turn underrun. And then from a device standpoint, certainly learned our lesson with respect to FLAWLESS. FLAWLESS struggled in '20 and '21 through COVID, '22 because of the pullback as it's a discretionary purchase. But WATERPIK is different. WATERPIK is also a device, but do you have a secular trend towards interest in gum health. And that's the business we bought in 2017. It grew high single digits in '17, '18, '19, '20, '21. And went backwards this year. Why we had the recession, $5 gas, et cetera. But that's going to turn around, and that's going to be growing, not only in the U.S. but also internationally for us, but I could go on. But there are many areas of the company that I would say we'd look back and say, "Yes, okay, we've been a little bit differently now but now we're -- we got our as open going forward. Rupesh.

其中一些是自己造成的，這與維生素和我們的供應能力有關。這肯定對我們的銷售和市場份額都造成了傷害，但我們開始變得不足。然後從設備的角度來看，當然吸取了我們關於 FLAWLESS 的教訓。 FLAWLESS 在 20 年和 21 年通過 COVID 掙扎，22 年因為它是可自由支配的購買而退回。但是 WATERPIK 是不同的。 WATERPIK 也是一種設備，但您對牙齦健康有長期興趣嗎？這就是我們在 2017 年收購的業務。它在 17 年、18 年、19 年、20 年、21 年實現了高個位數增長。今年倒退了。為什麼我們有經濟衰退，5 美元汽油，等等。但這種情況將會扭轉，而且這種情況將會增長，不僅在美國而且在國際上對我們來說也是如此，但我可以繼續。但我想說的是公司的許多領域我們會回顧過去說，“是的，好吧，我們現在有點不同，但現在我們——我們在未來保持開放。Rupesh .

So just on pricing, I guess, looking forward to this year, is there any pricing -- new pricing incorporated in your guidance for this year? And if you look at last is, how do they play out versus expectations? Have they gone back to where you've historically been? Or are they still better than the history.

所以就定價而言，我想，期待今年，是否有任何定價 - 新定價納入您今年的指導方針？如果你最後看一下，它們如何與預期相提並論？他們回到你過去去過的地方了嗎？或者他們仍然比歷史更好。

Second question, price gaps.

第二個問題，價格差距。

Elasticity question, just elasticities, how they compare Versus your expectations and versus history?

彈性問題，只是彈性，它們如何與您的期望和歷史進行比較？

Yes. We'll do with the elasticities first. And elasticities have been surprisingly good over the past year. So -- and I think you probably heard that from all of our CPG competitors. The first part of your question was?

是的。我們將首先處理彈性。在過去的一年裡，彈性出奇地好。所以——我想你可能從我們所有的 CPG 競爭對手那裡聽說過。你問題的第一部分是？

Just on pricing.

只是定價。

Yes. Well, I'll just start off, and he's going to have a little bit of chance to think of a better answer, but my answer would be the following: we already have pricing in place that's going to be in the marketplace in February and March, but it was sold in already. we don't have anything ahead of us with respect to, hey, we got pricing planned in the second half or in the fourth quarter because it's going to be -- it's becoming exceedingly more difficult in order to push price through and get away.

是的。好吧，我就開始吧，他會有一點機會想出更好的答案，但我的答案如下：我們已經制定了定價，將於 2 月和三月，但它已經賣掉了。我們沒有任何關於，嘿，我們在下半年或第四季度計劃定價，因為它將會 - 為了推動價格並逃脫，它變得非常困難。

That was a great answer. The organic outlook for us is 3%. It's price in 2023 and volumes were flattish. We had that in the release, and that's really because we had carryover price from 2022. And then there's additional pricing that's already been sold in, like you said, it's effective in February. So that's really the preponderance of the 3% organic growth next year.

這是一個很好的答案。我們的有機前景是 3%。它在 2023 年的價格和銷量持平。我們在發布中有這個，那真的是因為我們有 2022 年的結轉價格。然後還有已經售出的額外定價，就像你說的，它在 2 月份生效。所以這真的是明年 3% 有機增長的優勢。

Okay. Yes. Lauren.

好的。是的。勞倫。

In the release this morning and then also in the presentation today, there was a notable absence of discussion around the VMS business. So thought it'd be great to just get an update on where things stand from an internal standpoint, supply raw material availability and also from a consumer demand standpoint, had early cough and flu, cold and flu. So where do we stand on kind of normalizing demand or what you think that will look like?

在今天上午的發布以及今天的演示中，明顯沒有圍繞 VMS 業務進行討論。因此，我認為從內部的角度、供應原材料的可用性以及從消費者需求的角度來看，如果能了解早期的咳嗽和流感、感冒和流感的最新情況，那就太好了。那麼，我們站在什麼樣的正常化需求上，或者你認為這會是什麼樣子？

Yes. That's a good question. I'll let Barry and Paul comment as well. But the vitamin business in January, the vitamin category in January was down 10% year-over-year. And the reason for that is because if you went back to last year, you had Omicron and Delta, and you had a huge spike. In fact, the first quarter last year, you may remember from the slides, we had only 70% fill rate because we just couldn't staff our plants. So that's an issue for the category right now. As far as our issues go, yes, we've had some self-inflicted wounds over the year. our supply has started to come back as well. Now we have to win back the consumer. But I'll dish it over to Barry first and then Paul, if you want to add that.

是的。這是個好問題。我也會讓 Barry 和 Paul 發表評論。但 1 月份的維生素業務，1 月份維生素類別同比下降 10%。其原因是因為如果你回到去年，你有 Omicron 和 Delta，而且你有一個巨大的峰值。事實上，去年第一季度，你可能還記得幻燈片，我們只有 70% 的填充率，因為我們無法為工廠配備人員。所以這是目前該類別的一個問題。就我們的問題而言，是的，我們在這一年裡受到了一些自我傷害。我們的供應也開始恢復。現在我們必須贏回消費者。但如果你想補充的話，我會先把它交給 Barry，然後再交給 Paul。

Yes, Lauren. I think we see the category as struggling as we're comping Omicron, and it's a discretionary category, right? When you're making a decision about $15, $20 vitamins. And as you saw in my give it a ham campaign or regular grocery bills up $400 consumers are stepping back from the category. So good news, our supply rates are improving. Category is declining slightly. We're waiting to see what happens now as we get past the Omicron comp, how it looks. But we're going to be in a position to meet consumer demand as we get into the back half of Q1 here.

是的，勞倫。我認為我們認為這個類別在我們與 Omicron 競爭時處於掙扎狀態，而且它是一個可自由支配的類別，對吧？當您決定購買 15 美元或 20 美元的維生素時。正如您在我的文章中看到的那樣，發起火腿運動或將普通雜貨賬單抬高到 400 美元，消費者正在退出該類別。好消息，我們的供應率正在提高。類別略有下降。當我們通過 Omicron comp 時，我們正在等著看現在會發生什麼，它看起來如何。但隨著我們進入第一季度的後半部分，我們將能夠滿足消費者的需求。

And just a quick follow-up because the outlook range, I mean it's the beginning of the year, it's not just early in the year and giving yourselves a lot of room as you navigate through infinite sense. But I'm curious how much of the year's outlook is actually contingent on what happens with VMS because it's got attractive margins, a wide range of outcomes, right, in terms of where the category settles out. So just curious how important that is the full year outlook.

只是快速跟進，因為展望範圍，我的意思是這是今年的開始，不僅僅是年初，在你通過無限的感覺導航時給自己很大的空間。但我很好奇今年的前景有多少實際上取決於 VMS 發生的事情，因為它有誘人的利潤率，廣泛的結果，正確的，就類別結算而言。所以很好奇全年展望有多重要。

Yes. What we said in the release is we had 3 categories that really hurt us last year through brands, which are WATERPIK, FLAWLESS and vitamins. And we said 3 of those together, we expected modest growth in the aggregate in 2020, but it's not going to be pulling the train -- businesses.

是的。我們在新聞稿中說的是，去年我們有 3 個類別通過品牌真正傷害了我們，它們是 WATERPIK、FLAWLESS 和維生素。我們一起說了其中的三個，我們預計 2020 年的總體增長將適度增長，但這不會拉動火車——企業。

In 2022, remember, those 3 businesses were about a 4% headwind to organic growth. In the quarter, they were as well, right? We had 0.4% organic, but we would have been at 4.5%, if not for those 3 businesses. And we said for the full year, that's kind of true as well, 4% headwind. Just the absence of that headwind, they're flattish to slightly positive next year.

請記住，到 2022 年，這 3 項業務對有機增長造成了大約 4% 的阻力。在本季度，他們也是，對吧？我們有 0.4% 的有機產品，但如果不是這 3 家企業，我們本來可以達到 4.5%。我們說全年，這也是正確的，4% 的逆風。只是沒有這種逆風，他們明年持平到略微樂觀。

.

.

Okay. Olivia, your hand up before.

好的。奧利維亞，你先舉手。

My question is around the cadence of margins because, obviously, you're starting the year at a lower point. But you said that gross margin would be up in Q1. So could you talk a little bit about what's embedded in the outlook as you progress through the year? Because would expect that SG&A is up pretty considerably in Q1. Is that advertising? Or is there other expenses that we should be mindful of? And what happens as the year progresses.

我的問題是關於利潤率的節奏，因為很明顯，你今年的起點較低。但是你說第一季度毛利率會上升。那麼，您能否談一談隨著這一年的進展，前景中包含的內容？因為預計 SG&A 在第一季度會有相當大的增長。那是廣告嗎？或者還有其他需要注意的開支嗎？隨著時間的推移會發生什麼。

Okay, Rick, do you trust me to handle this one.

好的，里克，你相信我能處理好這件事嗎？

Do you want me to handle that? To give you something to think Gross margin is like we said, (inaudible) up through the year. Part of that is the mix headwind in the front part of the year that we just experienced in the back half of this year because of the discretionary businesses like FLAWLESS, WATERPIK vitamins typically have good gross margins. other part of it is as our fill rates recover, right? I think you saw a slide that Barry had up there showing 93% fill rates in the first half, 97% fill rates in the back half. So as you have fewer truckloads as you have fewer fines from retailers, all those things up gross margin as your supply improves. SG&A, we haven't really got into the quarterly SG&A. SG&A is higher in Q1, and part of that we put in the release was just timing of equity grants as well.

你要我來處理嗎？給你一些思考毛利率就像我們說的那樣，（聽不清）全年。部分原因是我們在今年下半年剛剛經歷的今年上半年的混合逆風，因為 FLAWLESS、WATERPIK 維生素等可自由支配的業務通常具有良好的毛利率。另一部分是隨著我們的填充率恢復，對嗎？我想你看到了 Barry 放在那裡的一張幻燈片，顯示上半場的填充率為 93%，下半場的填充率為 97%。因此，由於零售商的罰款減少，卡車裝載量減少，所有這些都會隨著供應的增加而提高毛利率。 SG&A，我們還沒有真正進入季度 SG&A。第一季度的 SG&A 較高，我們發布的部分內容也只是股權授予的時間。

Okay. Mark Astrachan at Stifel. Two related questions. So one, M&A, which is a stronger contributor, I think, than many expected in the fourth quarter. What drove that? And then how do we think about the contribution from M&A for '23 relative to what you had said about HERO?

好的。 Stifel 的馬克·阿斯特拉坎 (Mark Astrachan)。兩個相關的問題。因此，併購，我認為，第四季度的貢獻比許多人預期的要大。是什麼驅使它？然後，相對於您所說的 HERO，我們如何看待 23 年併購的貢獻？

Yes. Well, we had a really strong quarter, from new acquisition HERO. It actually exceeded expectations. I think this consumer is driving that. And we also had the opportunity to spend more in marketing in the fourth quarter for HERO after we bought the business that came in, in October. But yes, as far as 2023, I would say, yes, it's probably a little stronger than we expected when we first bought it. So that's going to help us. And you can see our range -- the gap between reported, which is on average 6% and 3%, which is organic. Most of that is the HERO business.

是的。嗯，我們有一個非常強勁的季度，來自新收購的 HERO。它實際上超出了預期。我認為這個消費者正在推動這一點。在我們於 10 月份收購了進來的業務之後，我們也有機會在第四季度為 HERO 投入更多的營銷費用。但是，是的，就 2023 年而言，我會說，是的，它可能比我們第一次購買時預期的要強一些。所以這對我們有幫助。你可以看到我們的範圍——報告之間的差距，平均為 6% 和 3%，這是有機的。其中大部分是 HERO 業務。

And just to give you a couple of numbers. We will end the year for HERO in 2022, around $180 million, we said when we bought it, it would be a 15% grower in 2023. You roll that forward and that means it's about 3%, and you're going to take the Q4 of 2022 out of the comp, but it's about a 3% tailwind for 2023.

只是給你幾個數字。我們將在 2022 年為 HERO 結束這一年，大約 1.8 億美元，我們在購買它時說過，到 2023 年它將增長 15%。你向前滾動，這意味著它大約是 3%，你將接受2022 年第四季度不在計算範圍之內，但 2023 年大約有 3% 的順風。

And on the EBIT line, I mean, I know what you said about interest expense. So what about from contribution there given the higher revenue, same sort of flow through?

在 EBIT 線上，我的意思是，我知道你所說的利息支出。那麼，考慮到更高的收入，同樣的流量，來自那裡的貢獻又如何呢？

Well, we're investing more marketing and I'll let Barry talk to it a little bit, but we are -- as we expand distribution, we're going to spend more marketing for national campaigns, right? So it is a virtuous cycle for HERO.

好吧，我們正在投資更多的營銷，我會讓巴里談一談，但我們 - 隨著我們擴大分銷，我們將為全國活動投入更多的營銷，對吧？所以對HERO來說是一個良性循環。

Yeah, we've never had a national campaign before because they weren't in national distribution, right? And like seem obvious. But we're getting excited about launching the first campaign to tell people all about acne patches because they still don't even realize what they are in many cases, household penetration versus total acne care lags by 10x, 20x, so that form we're going to educate about as the category leader, we benefit from that. So that's all new as we're building distribution at the same time.

是的，我們以前從未有過全國性的活動，因為它們不在全國范圍內分發，對嗎？並且看起來很明顯。但我們對發起第一個向人們介紹痤瘡斑塊的活動感到興奮，因為在很多情況下他們甚至都沒有意識到它們是什麼，家庭滲透率與總體痤瘡護理相比滯後 10 倍、20 倍，所以我們形成了作為類別領導者，我們將從中受益。所以這是全新的，因為我們正在同時建立分銷。

So I think it's a pretty exciting HERO story. We've kept the whole HERo team with us, by the way. They're a great strong team, and they're leading that business today. So excited about here going forward.

所以我認為這是一個非常激動人心的 HERO 故事。順便說一句，我們將整個 HERo 團隊留在了身邊。他們是一支強大的團隊，他們今天領導著這項業務。對未來的發展感到非常興奮。

Okay. Jonathan over to you.

好的。喬納森交給你了。

I'll start. Jon Feeney at Consumer Edge. You mentioned, Matt, a lot of CPG companies talking about elasticities are better, let's say, but yet everybody's get gross margin headwinds. And I wonder the data set seems to say that consumers are quite receptive and you get retailers in November, December to how hard things are even though what it that was talking to food companies about why they need to lower prices. So could you give us a little more -- shed a bit more light, maybe unlike that pricing process where -- I mean, if -- why wouldn't you just price in some of these categories until you got the elasticity you were looking for and optimize the profit pool that way?

我會開始。 Consumer Edge 的喬恩·菲尼 (Jon Feeney)。你提到過，馬特，很多 CPG 公司都在談論彈性更好，比方說，但每個人都遇到毛利率不利因素。我想知道數據集似乎表明消費者很容易接受，而且你在 11 月、12 月讓零售商了解事情有多艱難，儘管它正在與食品公司談論為什麼他們需要降低價格。那麼你能不能給我們多一點——闡明更多一點，也許不像那個定價過程——我的意思是，如果——你為什麼不在這些類別中定價，直到你得到你正在尋找的彈性換和優化利潤池呀？

Yes. Well, I'm sure you know the way it works is in order to raise price, you have to have a cost story. And without the cost story, you don't get the price. And the retailers have all the data about what's going on in the marketplace with respect to commodities, transportation, et cetera. So it's -- it is a negotiation about, hey, this is what we're seeing on the cost side. We need this price increase and then there's a debate. -- and Paul lives this every day. You can give Paul the mic and he can share it a little bit with you. But yes, that is it around the world with all the retailers is. You can only go as far as you can justify with cost.

是的。好吧，我相信你知道它的運作方式是為了提高價格，你必須有一個成本故事。如果沒有成本故事，您就無法獲得價格。零售商擁有有關商品、運輸等市場動態的所有數據。所以這是 - 這是一場談判，嘿，這就是我們在成本方面看到的。我們需要漲價，然後就會發生爭論。 ——保羅每天都過著這樣的生活。你可以把麥克風給保羅，他可以和你分享一下。但是，是的，全世界所有的零售商都是這樣。您只能在成本合理的範圍內走得更遠。

Yes. I'd simplify this transparency, the retailers expect you to be transparent with them to that cost story that he said. I think we've been extremely successful in being transparent. That develops a trust. So when we do come in and share a transparent story and timing is important, too. Retailers have financial demands and controls and different things. And I think we've been very good at being showing them where the world is moving, where we expect -- so we have these conversations. They're not surprises. So trust transparency and timing, I would say, has been our secret sauce. And while it may seem a cliche and everyone should do it. I think that's what's allowed us to experience the elasticities we have and make the choices we have as well.

是的。我會簡化這種透明度，零售商希望您對他所說的成本故事保持透明。我認為我們在保持透明方面非常成功。這培養了一種信任。因此，當我們真的進來並分享一個透明的故事時，時機也很重要。零售商有財務需求和控制以及不同的事情。而且我認為我們一直非常擅長向他們展示世界正在發生的變化，我們期望的方向 - 所以我們進行了這些對話。他們並不意外。因此，我想說，信任透明度和時間安排一直是我們的秘訣。雖然這似乎是陳詞濫調，但每個人都應該這樣做。我認為這就是讓我們體驗我們所擁有的彈性並做出我們所擁有的選擇的原因。

Anna Lizzul with Bank of America. I was wondering if we could go back to the conversation around marketing investment. Just wondering if you can talk a little bit more about how you're planning to allocate this increased investment between your legacy brands and maybe some of the more recent acquisitions? And then just in terms of acquisitions, how are you thinking about maybe the personal care side versus discretionary just given the success of some of your more recent acquisitions like HERO versus some which maybe have been less successful in the past.

美國銀行的 Anna Lizzul。我想知道我們是否可以回到圍繞營銷投資的對話。只是想知道您是否可以多談談您計劃如何在您的傳統品牌和最近的一些收購之間分配這筆增加的投資？然後就收購而言，考慮到您最近的一些收購（如 HERO）的成功與過去可能不太成功的一些收購的成功相比，您如何考慮個人護理方面與全權委託方。

Yes. I'll let Barry comment on the marketing. With respect to acquisitions, we have -- we only have 1 person in our entire acquisition, M&A department, which is very church and Dwight like. So we dont have a dozen people that are studying categories saying, wouldn't it be wonderful to be in this category? Yes, it might be, but you can only buy what's for sale. So anything that's for sale, particularly in the U.S., that's consumer products, we are aware of and you know what our acquisition criteria is as well. And we've -- even in the last 6 months, there's 3 acquisitions that we diligence that we passed on, had good economics, but they just didn't -- we didn't think they had good long-term potential for the company. But because we're able to make so many different products, we're in so many different categories, we can liquid in a bottle. We can put powder in a box. We put anything in a tube. We know how to make lots of things. So Consequently, we can throw a pretty wide net as far as things that we might be able to take on as a company. But I'll dish it over to Barry.

是的。我會讓巴里對營銷發表評論。關於收購，我們 - 我們整個收購、併購部門只有 1 個人，這非常像教堂和德懷特。所以我們沒有十幾個研究類別的人說，屬於這個類別不是很好嗎？是的，可能是，但您只能購買待售商品。所以任何待售的東西，尤其是在美國，都是消費品，我們知道，你也知道我們的收購標準是什麼。而且我們 - 即使在過去 6 個月裡，我們也進行了 3 次收購，我們通過了這些收購，它們具有良好的經濟效益，但它們就是沒有 - 我們認為它們沒有良好的長期潛力公司。但是因為我們能夠生產這麼多不同的產品，我們有這麼多不同的類別，我們可以把液體裝在瓶子裡。我們可以把粉末放在一個盒子裡。我們把任何東西都放在管子裡。我們知道如何製作很多東西。因此，就我們作為一家公司可能承擔的事情而言，我們可以撒一張相當大的網。但我會把它交給巴里。

Sure. Yes, we've got a lot of brands in our portfolio, right? We've got a classic brand classification approach we take, and it won't surprise you their seed and there's grow and they're sustaining milk of the incremental dollars that we're putting in is going against those seed and grow brands. It won't surprise you if I say a seed brand as a hero is a thorough breadth we're reporting kind of gasoline or maybe see is better to say putting water on them, maybe gasoline is a bad example.

當然。是的，我們的產品組合中有很多品牌，對吧？我們採用了經典的品牌分類方法，他們的種子不會讓你感到驚訝，而且他們正在成長，他們正在維持我們投入的增量美元的牛奶，這與那些種子和成長品牌背道而馳。如果我說種子品牌作為英雄是一個徹底的廣度，你不會感到驚訝，我們正在報告一種汽油，或者也許看到更好的說法是在它們上面放水，也許汽油是一個壞例子。

But that's where the spend is going, right? We make hard choices about it. We'd always like to spend more, but those -- in our brand classification, we know where we want to put those dollars and that's how we allocate it. So I won't get into those specific brands here, but that's how we approach it. when you've got 14 power brands, you're going to make hard choices, but we know where to put those dollars to work. We think HERO is certainly one of them.

但這就是支出的去向，對吧？我們對此做出了艱難的選擇。我們總是想花更多的錢，但是那些——在我們的品牌分類中，我們知道我們想把這些錢放在哪裡，這就是我們分配它的方式。所以我不會在這裡討論那些特定的品牌，但這就是我們處理它的方式。當您擁有 14 個強大的品牌時，您將做出艱難的選擇，但我們知道將這些資金投入何處。我們認為 HERO 肯定是其中之一。

Okay. Okay. Let's move to another table. All right.

好的。好的。讓我們轉到另一張桌子。好的。

Filippo Falorni, Citi. Some of your competitors have talked about retailers reducing their inventory levels. I wonder if you guys have seen any impact in your business and particularly what categories you seen most of the impact.

Filippo Falorni，花旗銀行。您的一些競爭對手談到零售商降低了庫存水平。我想知道你們是否看到了對您的業務的任何影響，尤其是您看到的影響最大的類別。

Yes. Okay. Well, Barry and Paul will deal with this every day. But I can tell you, in the fourth quarter, we had a major e-retailer significantly reduced their inventories and their days of supply. So that was a hit with respect to the fourth quarter. We did see a lot of that pullback happen midyear in 2022, but more recently, it was more retailers, but I'll let Paul and Barry comment on that. Take it away.

是的。好的。好吧，巴里和保羅每天都會處理這個問題。但我可以告訴你，在第四季度，我們有一家大型電子零售商大幅減少了庫存和供應天數。所以這對第四季度來說是一個打擊。我們確實看到很多回調發生在 2022 年年中，但最近，更多的是零售商，但我會讓保羅和巴里對此發表評論。把它拿開。

Yes. By and large, we're back to a ship to consumption model. I'd say the retailers -- some may have their other challenges within their own network. They want to ship more product, but they may have constraints at their DCs or getting it out of their own DCs to their stores. But by and large, it's a ship to consumption. You guys or in stores across the country, you see what I see. We need more inventory on the shelves. It's just a matter of catching up. But I do not feel like what Matt described last year, is anywhere or the other side of that book shelf. And we want to get back -- they want to get back at just getting that product through their warehouse and through their network, but very small.

是的。總的來說，我們又回到了消費模式。我會說零售商 - 有些人可能在他們自己的網絡中面臨其他挑戰。他們想運送更多產品，但他們可能在他們的 DC 處有限制，或者將產品從他們自己的 DC 運送到他們的商店。但總的來說，這是一艘消費船。你們或在全國各地的商店，你看到我看到的。我們需要貨架上有更多存貨。這只是趕上來的問題。但我不覺得 Matt 去年所描述的是那個書架的任何地方或另一邊。我們想要回歸——他們想要回歸，只是通過他們的倉庫和他們的網絡獲取該產品，但規模很小。

It was really in Q3 and Q4, though, for sure. We felt it.

不過，確實是在第三季度和第四季度。我們感覺到了。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo. So from a ship to consumption standpoint, we've continued to see scanner trends, which are a lot stronger than your underlying results, right? So even in this quarter, there might have been a 10-point gap between what you did in personal care delivery versus what we can see in scanner. And so. Are we starting to get to the point where non-e-tailer, so large e-retailer, that is going to remain noisy, but are you getting back to a shift to consumption in your core brick-and-mortar retailers because, again, we're seeing strong results in personal care consumption than what you're actually reporting, right? And it's making it a lot harder to actually call quarters and understand what the underlying trend here is, right? So if you're back to ship to consumption, that would seem to be a positive development. But I guess what I'm hearing is actually that inventory will remain volatile in the front half of the year. So I'm just trying to square the.

克里斯·凱里，富國銀行。因此，從船舶到消費的角度來看，我們繼續看到掃描儀趨勢，這比您的基本結果強得多，對嗎？因此，即使在本季度，您在個人護理交付方面所做的與我們在掃描儀中看到的之間也可能存在 10 個百分點的差距。所以。我們是否開始達到非電子零售商，如此龐大的電子零售商，將繼續嘈雜的地步，但您是否正在回到核心實體零售商的消費轉變，因為，再次，我們看到個人護理消費的結果比你實際報告的要好，對吧？這使得實際調用季度並了解這裡的潛在趨勢變得更加困難，對吧？因此，如果您重新開始消費，那似乎是一個積極的發展。但我想我聽到的實際上是庫存將在今年上半年保持波動。所以我只是想平方。

Chris, you're -- the major difference between what you guys can see in Nielsen or IRI versus what's actually happening and on the personal care side is really what's happened in the discretionary business. Like the WATERPIK coverage that you don't see, I remember the universe is this small or your view through Nielsen or IRI on the WATERPIK business. Your view is largely a bit smaller for the FLAWLESS business as well. I think those 2 things are a big part of the disconnect. But take a step back, a lot of the portfolio is growing consumption really well. I think as you see HERO add to distribution and other retailers, you're going to see that, that gets picked up correctly. It just has to get scaled up to a greater degree. Anything you guys would add?

克里斯，你是——你們在尼爾森或 IRI 中看到的與實際發生的事情和個人護理方面的主要區別在於全權委託業務中發生的事情。就像您看不到的 WATERPIK 報導一樣，我記得宇宙是如此之小，或者您通過 Nielsen 或 IRI 對 WATERPIK 業務的看法。對於 FLAWLESS 業務，您的觀點在很大程度上也有點小。我認為這兩件事是脫節的重要組成部分。但退一步說，很多投資組合的消費增長非常好。我認為當你看到 HERO 添加到分銷和其他零售商時，你會看到它被正確地拾取了。它只需要擴大到更大的程度。大家有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, I was going to answer if you had funded to be first. I would say the syndicated piece does matter, right? A lot of the personal care brands and what those retailers are, what you can see versus what we see. And it's not an excuse, that's just kind of where the business is and some of those just aren't tracked the way that you guys are seeing it in the system. So I think Rick hit it.

是的，我會回答你是否已經資助成為第一個。我會說辛迪加作品確實很重要，對吧？許多個人護理品牌和這些零售商是什麼，你能看到什麼與我們看到什麼。這不是藉口，這只是業務所在，其中一些只是沒有按照你們在系統中看到的方式進行跟踪。所以我認為里克成功了。

And just related, if I could, but the supply chain improvement is the inventory improvement and the shift of consumption. We've seen promotions come back up. specifically on your laundry business. Was that an impact on price mix in the quarter? And can you just describe that promotional activity, whether -- it certainly looks like it was more offensive as supply came back, you promoted behind laundry. But am I reading that situation wrong? And just again, any impact on the quarter.

只是相關，如果可以的話，但供應鏈的改善就是庫存的改善和消費的轉移。我們已經看到促銷活動又回來了。特別是關於您的洗衣業務。這對本季度的價格組合有影響嗎？你能不能描述一下促銷活動，它是否——隨著供應的恢復，你在洗衣店後面促銷，這肯定看起來更令人反感。但是我讀錯了這種情況嗎？再一次，對本季度的任何影響。

Yes. Let me give you some help with sold on deal for the categories that generally have lots of promotion. And then Rick or Barry or Paul can chime in. So if you look at the liquid laundry detergent, okay, Q2 versus Q4 you'd see that the sold under was 31% in Q2. It's 33% in Q4 for liquid laundry detergent. If you look at unit dose, it was 28% sold on deal in Q2, and it's 33% in Q4. So it's 500 basis points move. And then the other category that's a lot of promotion is litter. So litter was 11.5% sold on deal in Q2, and it's 14% in Q4. So you've seen a move up. Now historically, liquid laundry detergent is kind of mid-30s sold on deal. Litter, however, is still low. It's typically high teens. So things have heated up a little bit in the last couple of quarters, but it hasn't gone to the point where it's a rocket ship or it's a big spike. It's sort of gradual. And as we look ahead to 2023. I would say our sold on deal were probably similar to what we did in Q4 evenly throughout the year. So if anybody wants to chime in, you...

是的。對於通常有很多促銷活動的類別，讓我為您提供一些關於特價商品的幫助。然後 Rick 或 Barry 或 Paul 可以插話。所以如果你看看液體洗衣粉，好吧，第二季度與第四季度相比，你會發現第二季度的銷售量低於 31%。液體洗衣粉在第四季度為 33%。如果你看一下單位劑量，第二季度的交易量為 28%，第四季度為 33%。所以它移動了 500 個基點。然後另一個得到大量宣傳的類別是垃圾。因此，第二季度垃圾交易量為 11.5%，第四季度為 14%。所以你已經看到了上漲。現在，從歷史上看，液體洗衣粉是在 30 年代中期打折出售的。然而，垃圾仍然很少。通常是青少年。因此，在過去的幾個季度中，情況有所升溫，但還沒有達到火箭飛船或大峰值的程度。這有點漸進。當我們展望 2023 年時。我想說我們的成交量可能與我們在全年第四季度的表現相似。所以如果有人想插話，你...

I would also say year-over-year, yes, it's a drag because we're lapping a period where we didn't really have as much promotion. Fill levels were low. And so now as we get back to normal levels of promotion, is it a year-over-year drag, yes. Is it offset is it off base from what our historical levels have been now.

我還要說的是，與去年同期相比，是的，這是一個拖累，因為我們正在度過一個我們並沒有真正獲得太多晉升的時期。填充水平低。所以現在當我們回到正常的促銷水平時，這是一個同比拖累，是的。它是否與我們現在的歷史水平相抵消？

But supply allows us to get back to advertising and trade that are at normative levels, I would say, right? We're not wildly off where we've been historically, but that allowed us to in Q4 get back to normative levels.

但供應使我們能夠回到正常水平的廣告和貿易，我會說，對嗎？我們並沒有偏離歷史上的水平，但這讓我們在第四季度回到了正常水平。

Okay. All right. Finally, this side of the room. Coming to life.

好的。好的。最後，房間的這一邊。甦醒過來。

I'll take a second shot on M&A. And I think that some of it was in the earlier question was if perhaps you're thinking about discretionary differently in the context of future M&A. It does feel like when you think about something like ZICAM where you bought a cold remedy company at a time where nobody was getting cold. But it also sounds like a lot of discretionary assets that you might be looking at are also equivalently struggling forgetting about what's in your business right now. So can you maybe just talk about how you're thinking about M&A in terms of is discretionary still on the table? Or has this recent experience maybe changed your mind about discretionary as part of your...

我將對併購進行第二次嘗試。而且我認為其中一些是在之前的問題中，如果你在未來併購的背景下考慮不同的自由裁量權。當你想到像 ZICAM 這樣的公司時，你會在沒有人感冒的時候買下一家感冒藥公司。但這聽起來也像是您可能正在關注的許多可自由支配資產，同樣也在努力忘記您現在的業務。那麼，您能否談談您是如何根據酌情決定權來考慮併購的？或者最近的經歷是否改變了你對自由裁量權的看法，作為你的一部分……

Yes. Well, let's go back to ZICAM for a minute. And we bought ZICAM has a brand, a very strong brand equity. And we renew we were buying it in the middle of COVID. We thought long term, this is a business that has opportunity to grow. And the opportunity with respect to ZICAM is similar to a brand like Emergency which is not episodic now and it's sort of an everyday brand that many consumers use. That's the opportunity for ZICAM long term is converted -- also is having ZICAM a gummy form. You got to keep in mind, we were in supplements with [Vitafusion]. So it made a lot of sense for us to add on to that as I can. So just to give a little bit of context. Now as far as discretionary versus nondiscretionary, yes, a recent experience does influence our attitude going forward. And certainly, if you're going to buy a discretionary brand, the question is going to be how resilient is going to be the downturns in the marketplace because, obviously, with -- certainly with respect to vitamins, FLAWLESS and WATERPIK. The economy did affect the performance of those brands over the past year. So it does influence that. It doesn't mean that we're -- it's hard and fast. We're going to extrude them. But I will tell you the devices you can put it next through going forward.

是的。好吧，讓我們回到 ZICAM 一分鐘。我們買的 ZICAM 有一個品牌，一個非常強大的品牌資產。我們更新了我們是在 COVID 期間購買的。我們認為從長遠來看，這是一個有發展機會的企業。 ZICAM 的機會類似於像 Emergency 這樣的品牌，它現在不是偶發的，它是許多消費者使用的日常品牌。這是 ZICAM 長期轉換的機會——也就是讓 ZICAM 成為一種軟糖形式。你必須記住，我們在補充 [Vitafusion]。因此，盡我所能補充這一點對我們來說很有意義。所以只是為了提供一點背景。現在就自由裁量權與非自由裁量權而言，是的，最近的經歷確實影響了我們未來的態度。當然，如果你要購買一個全權委託品牌，問題將是市場低迷的彈性有多大，因為，顯然，對於維生素、FLAWLESS 和 WATERPIK。過去一年，經濟確實影響了這些品牌的表現。所以它確實影響了這一點。這並不意味著我們 - 它是艱難而快速的。我們要擠壓它們。但我會告訴你，你可以通過前進的方式把它放在下一個設備上。

Steve?

史蒂夫？

Yes. So Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. So I wanted to go back to pricing, a 2-part question. The first one is just pricing in the quarter relative to what we're seeing in scan data. Pricing came in light. So I don't know how much of that is the promotion, how much of that is some of the mix that we don't see. But just you can bridge that gap would be helpful. And then as you go forward, as for as much pricing as you have taken and are taking, your pricing net of cost inflation is still has not cut up and it's not expected to catch up in your gross margin bridge. All your gross margin is productivity and fill rates and mix, which is great. a lot more emphasis on volume resumption in your messaging and value. So just philosophically, how you're thinking about that? And I guess, a little bit to John Feeney's question about just why not price a bit more, if you last this is your favorable to close that price versus cost inflation gap.

是的。德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。所以我想回到定價，一個由兩部分組成的問題。第一個只是相對於我們在掃描數據中看到的季度定價。定價很明確。所以我不知道其中有多少是促銷，有多少是我們看不到的一些組合。但只要你能彌合這一差距就會有所幫助。然後，隨著您的前進，就您已經採取和正在採取的定價而言，扣除成本通脹後的定價淨額仍未減少，預計不會趕上您的毛利率橋樑。你所有的毛利率都是生產力、填充率和組合，這很好。在您的消息傳遞和價值中更加強調音量恢復。所以從哲學上講，你是怎麼想的？我想，對於約翰·菲尼 (John Feeney) 關於為什麼不多定價一點的問題，如果你堅持下去，這對縮小價格與成本通脹差距是有利的。

Yes, I'll start, and I'll dish it to Rick. So as far as the fourth quarter goes, certainly, mix had an impact as we talked about earlier with respect to WATERPIK and vitamins and FLAWLESS year-over-year -- promotions, which we went through also since that's kind of been heating up Q2, 3, 4. It's gradual, but it still had an impact in the fourth quarter. But I would say the 2 factors would be mix, number one and number 2 was heat up and sold on deal as far as the trend with respect to price mix.

是的，我會開始，我會把它送給里克。因此，就第四季度而言，當然，混合產生了影響，正如我們之前談到的關於 WATERPIK 和維生素以及 FLAWLESS 同比促銷活動，我們也經歷了這些促銷活動，因為這在第二季度有所升溫, 3, 4. 這是漸進的，但它在第四季度仍然有影響。但我想說這兩個因素是混合的，第一和第二是升溫，就價格組合的趨勢而言，在交易中出售。

Yes. And as for 2023, if you look at the components in the gross margin bridge, they're all switched together. But I'll tell you, by the end of 2023, we do think that we've priced the dollars on inflation, okay? What you're seeing there is negative mix, again from the first half of the year on the flawless water pit vitamin businesses. We talked last quarter as an example of -- in WATERPIK units were flattish to down slightly, but everyone was trading down to lower-priced units. That's where it shows up on the gross margin bridge is a headwind. But overall, we feel really good about our pricing and what we've done. And if you remember, rewind the clock a little bit. We were the first to go out with laundry pricing, right? We're not a leader in that category. We were the first to go out in litter pricing because we knew it wasn't if, but just when. And so we had the call story. We had the justification and we moved. And so we feel really good about our pricing. It's a core competency in the company now. I would say about 7 years ago, we started a pricing department, and we have people that all they do every day just look at pricing and where we should be and what we should do. And so we have all these plans in place, and we've had a successful selling at retail because we have transparency, and we have the facts to back it up.

是的。至於 2023 年，如果你看一下毛利率橋中的組件，它們都會一起切換。但我會告訴你，到 2023 年底，我們確實認為我們已經根據通貨膨脹定價美元，好嗎？你所看到的是負面的混合，同樣是從今年上半年開始的完美水坑維生素業務。我們以上個季度為例——在 WATERPIK 中，單位持平到略有下降，但每個人都在交易低價單位。這就是它在毛利率橋樑上出現的不利因素。但總的來說，我們對我們的定價和我們所做的事情感到非常滿意。如果你還記得，把時鐘倒回去一點。我們是第一個提出洗衣定價的人，對吧？我們不是該類別的領導者。我們是第一個出去亂扔垃圾的人，因為我們知道這不是如果，而是何時。所以我們有了電話故事。我們有理由，我們搬家了。因此，我們對我們的定價感到非常滿意。它現在是公司的核心競爭力。我會說大約 7 年前，我們成立了一個定價部門，我們的員工每天所做的只是關注定價以及我們應該在哪里以及我們應該做什麼。所以我們制定了所有這些計劃，我們在零售方面取得了成功，因為我們有透明度，而且我們有事實支持。

And so we're not timid about raising prices, as you know Steve, as you just heard the what the history was with respect to when we've raised price. But we also have to be cognizant of what's going on in the category, the category dynamics and our price gaps with our competition. So I think -- I mean you and John are beaten on the same topic, but we've taken it as we think as far as we can at the moment with that because we do need cost justification to go few further.

因此，正如您所知，史蒂夫，我們對提價並不膽怯，因為您剛剛聽說了我們提價時的歷史。但我們也必須認識到品類中正在發生的事情、品類動態以及我們與競爭對手的價格差距。所以我認為——我的意思是你和約翰在同一個話題上被打敗了，但我們目前已經盡可能地按照我們的想法去做了，因為我們確實需要成本合理性才能走得更遠。

Okay. Andre.

好的。安德烈。

Just Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan. Just to squeeze in to Steve's question on the pricing. And also the volume side, I guess you had a big impact on the fourth quarter and the full year, 4% for those of 20% of your businesses that were down. So I'm thinking as we think into the first half of this year, right, you're calling for a decline in volumes. Is that mostly on that or you're adding on a bit of elasticity in the first half of the year? It seems as if it's opposite like the existing -- the other 80% is going to grow volumes.

只是來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。只是為了回答史蒂夫關於定價的問題。還有數量方面，我猜你對第四季度和全年產生了重大影響，對於 20% 的業務下降了 4%。所以我在考慮我們今年上半年的想法，是的，你要求銷量下降。這主要是因為那個，還是你在今年上半年增加了一點彈性？它似乎與現有的相反——其他 80% 將增加數量。

Yes. I would say it's more of the same what we just experienced in Q4. All right? The 80% of the business is doing well. Volumes are up, and it's really the drag from those other businesses that we said were going to be choppy for the first 6 months of 2023.

是的。我會說這與我們在第四季度所經歷的更相似。好的？ 80%的業務都做得很好。成交量上升，這確實是我們所說的 2023 年前 6 個月將出現波動的其他業務的拖累。

We've got a mic on the side of the room.

我們在房間的一側有一個麥克風。

Peter Grom, UBS. So Rick, you showed the slide talking about gross margin performance over time? And then recognizing you're expecting to have a nice bounce back year here in '23. You're still kind of 200 basis points or so below kind of the 2019, 2020 gross margins. And I don't want to sit here and asking question for 2024 guidance in February of 2023. But you spoke to multiyears of opportunity on gross margin expansion. So I guess how big of a priority is that in terms of getting back to that level over time? And as you think about the cadence of the year and kind of look forward here, like how quickly can you get back to 45% gross margin.

彼得·格羅姆，瑞銀。所以里克，你展示了關於毛利率隨時間變化的幻燈片？然後認識到你期待在 23 年在這裡有一個很好的反彈。你仍然比 2019 年、2020 年的毛利率低 200 個基點左右。我不想坐在這裡問 2023 年 2 月的 2024 年指導問題。但你談到了多年毛利率擴張的機會。所以我想隨著時間的推移回到那個水平有多大的優先級？當你考慮今年的節奏並在這裡有點期待時，比如你能多快回到 45% 的毛利率。

Yes. That's a great question. #1 priority in the company is always to grow our brands, right, have brands consumers love, grow share over time in good categories. The #2 priority is probably gross margin. Gross margin expansion leads to EBITDA expansion leads to cash flow, right? We're known for cash flow generation. And I would say, 2 things really help give us confidence over the next few years. If you look back at our history, we normally have about $50 million of inflation. We haven't had $50 million inflation, it feels like for a decade. It's only been 3 or 4 years, but it feels like so long. $290 million of inflation in 2021, $250 million in 2022. We're calling $125 million in 2023. That is not normal, right? We're going to return to the days of normalized inflation. And meanwhile, our productivity program is alive and well, even stronger than it's ever been. So as that -- you saw in the bridge, I think that was closer to 100 plus basis points. We target closer to 2% on productivity. So if that equation normalizes, I think that's a great way we're going to have gross margin expansion. And then number two, as our businesses like THERABREATH and like HERO continue to grow and expand globally, that's going to be a great tailwind too.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。公司的第一要務始終是發展我們的品牌，對，擁有消費者喜愛的品牌，隨著時間的推移在好的類別中增加份額。排名第二的可能是毛利率。毛利率擴張導致 EBITDA 擴張導致現金流，對吧？我們以產生現金流而聞名。我要說的是，有兩件事真的有助於我們在未來幾年充滿信心。如果你回顧一下我們的歷史，我們通常會有大約 5000 萬美元的通貨膨脹。我們沒有經歷過 5000 萬美元的通貨膨脹，感覺就像十年了。才過去三四年，卻感覺好久不見。 2021 年通貨膨脹 2.9 億美元，2022 年 2.5 億美元。我們預計 2023 年通貨膨脹 1.25 億美元。這不正常，對吧？我們將回到通貨膨脹正常化的時代。與此同時，我們的生產力計劃依然有效，甚至比以往任何時候都更加強大。因此 - 你在橋上看到的，我認為這接近 100 多個基點。我們的目標是生產率接近 2%。因此，如果該等式正常化，我認為這是我們擴大毛利率的好方法。其次，隨著我們的業務像 THERABREATH 和 HERO 一樣在全球範圍內繼續增長和擴張，這也將是一個巨大的順風。

Yes. Just some math. I think the -- our gross margin just a few years back, pre-COVID, 45%. It's 41.9%, recalling 100, 120 basis points improvement. So pick the midpoint, so you go 41.9%, 43% in 2023. And then I used to dish it over to Rick Spann for a minute. By the way, Matt Duffy is here today. He's one of the on people that drives are good to great program, and we target 2% of sales for cost savings annual. It's $100 million. That's a big number. It's a huge effort to make that happen, but that's what it works referring to week we're able to sustain that going forward. And any kind of help from commodities and input costs, we'll be able to return to expand gross margin in the future. But Rick, anything to add about the target-rich environment. You've all seen Top Gun.

是的。只是一些數學。我認為 - 我們的毛利率就在幾年前，在 COVID 之前，45%。這是 41.9%，回顧 100、120 個基點的改進。所以選擇中點，所以你在 2023 年達到 41.9%、43%。然後我曾經把它交給 Rick Spann 一分鐘。順便說一下，馬特·達菲今天也來了。他是推動從優秀到卓越計劃的重要人物之一，我們的目標是每年將銷售額的 2% 用於節省成本。這是1億美元。這是一個很大的數字。實現這一目標需要付出巨大的努力，但這就是我們能夠維持未來一周的工作原理。以及來自商品和投入成本的任何幫助，我們將能夠在未來恢復以擴大毛利率。但是 Rick，關於目標豐富的環境還有什麼要補充的嗎？你們都看過壯志凌雲。

Sure. 4 years ago, we made a conscious effort to increase our focus on our -- good to -- great program, our productivity program. We brought Matt Duffy on who's in the room, as Matt said, to lead the program. And it was a push in the beginning. We couldn't get a lot of traction in the company. It's now part of our culture. We have marketing leaders asking us what else we can do to drive cost savings. We have the R&D community focusing on it. We've created a value engineering team whose sole focus is to break down our products and figure out more effective ways to go to market with those products from a cost standpoint. So it really is part of the culture now it's driving much bigger savings than it was 4 years ago.

當然。 4 年前，我們有意識地努力增加對我們的 - 從好到 - 偉大計劃，我們的生產力計劃的關注。正如 Matt 所說，我們讓 Matt Duffy 了解誰在房間裡領導該計劃。一開始是推動。我們無法在公司獲得很大的吸引力。它現在是我們文化的一部分。我們有營銷主管問我們還能做些什麼來推動成本節約。我們有專注於此的研發社區。我們已經創建了一個價值工程團隊，其唯一的重點是分解我們的產品，並從成本的角度找出更有效的方法將這些產品推向市場。所以它確實是文化的一部分，現在它比 4 年前節省了更多的錢。

Yes. As far as call-outs, I neglected to point out that our entire M&A department is actually here on the stage.

是的。至於召集，我忘了指出我們整個併購部門實際上都在舞台上。

Brian Buker -- So if you want to talk to him after Class, please do. All right. Any other questions in the room, I guess that concludes it today. I was so happy we were able to do this in person this year and look forward to seeing everybody next year. Thank you.

Brian Buker——所以如果你想在課後與他交談，請儘管如此。好的。房間裡的任何其他問題，我想今天就結束了。我很高興我們今年能夠親自來做這件事，並期待明年與大家見面。謝謝。