Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Cullen/Frost Bankers first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Cullen/Frost Bankers 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，本次會議將被錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to A.B. Mendez, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我將把會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁暨總監 A.B. Mendez。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Thanks very much and thank you all for rejoining us. I'm going to quickly run through the Safe Harbor again before I pass it to our CEO, Phil Green. This afternoon's conference call will be led by Phil Green, Chairman and CEO; and Dan Geddes, Group Executive Vice President and CFO.

非常感謝，也謝謝各位再次加入我們。在我把電話交給我們的執行長 Phil Green 之前，我會快速再說明一次安全港聲明。今天下午的電話會議將由董事長暨執行長 Phil Green，以及集團執行副總裁暨財務長 Dan Geddes 主持。

Before I turn the call to Phil and Dan, I'd like to run through the safe harbor. Some of the remarks made today will constitute forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. We intend such statements to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended.

在我把電話交給 Phil 和 Dan 之前，我想先說明安全港聲明。今天所發表的部分評論，將構成《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》（經修訂）所定義的前瞻性陳述。我們意圖使該等陳述受《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》（經修訂）中關於前瞻性陳述之安全港條款所涵蓋。

Please see the last page of text in this morning's earnings release for additional information about the risk factors associated with these forward-looking statements. If needed, a copy of the release is available on our website or by calling the Investor Relations Department at 210-220-5234.

關於與這些前瞻性陳述相關的風險因素之更多資訊，請參閱今早財報新聞稿文字的最後一頁。如有需要，可至我們網站取得新聞稿副本，或致電投資人關係部門 210-220-5234 索取。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Phil.

現在我把電話交給 Phil。

Thanks, A.B. I just want to apologize to everybody for any inconvenience for having to break the call up. I want to thank our carrier for being able to overcome their technical difficulties and get us back on the line. Where we were when we broke off, Dan was about to talk about guidance for the rest of the year, and so I'll turn that over to Dan now. Thank you.

謝謝你，A.B. 我想先向各位致歉，因為必須把這通電話會議中斷分段，造成不便。也要感謝我們的電信服務商克服技術問題，讓我們重新連線。在我們中斷之前，Dan 正要談到今年剩餘期間的財測指引，因此我現在把時間交給 Dan。謝謝。

Thank you, Phil. Looking at our guidance for full year 2026, our current outlook includes 125-basis-point cut for the Fed funds rate in the fourth quarter. We expect net interest income growth for the full year to fall in the range of 3.5% to 5%, narrowing the prior guidance range of 3% to 5%.

謝謝你，Phil。就我們 2026 全年的指引來看，目前的展望包含聯邦基金利率在第四季下調 125 個基點。我們預期全年淨利息收入成長將落在 3.5% 至 5% 的區間，較先前 3% 至 5% 的指引區間有所收斂。

For net interest margin, we expect an improvement of about 10 to 15 basis points compared to our full-year 2025 net interest margin of 3.66%. This is up from 5 to 10 basis points as guided last quarter. We expect full-year average loan growth to be in the range of 6% to 7%; this compares to prior guidance of 5% to 7%.

就淨利差而言，我們預期相較於 2025 全年 3.66% 的淨利差，將改善約 10 至 15 個基點。這較上季指引的 5 至 10 個基點有所上調。我們預期全年平均放款成長將落在 6% 至 7% 的區間；相較之下，先前指引為 5% 至 7%。

Regarding deposits, we expect full-year average growth to be in the range of 2% to 3%, unchanged from prior guidance. Based on current projections, we expect non-interest income growth of 4% to 5% and expect non-interest expense growth to be in the 5% to 6% range year over year, both consistent with prior guidance.

就存款而言，我們預期全年平均成長將落在 2% 至 3% 的區間，與先前指引一致。依據目前預估，我們預期非利息收入成長 4% 至 5%，並預期非利息費用年增 5% 至 6%，兩者皆與先前指引一致。

Regarding net charge-offs, we expect full-year 2026 to be in the range of 15 to 20 basis points of average loans, lower than prior quarter guidance of 20 to 25 basis points. Our effective tax rate expectation for full year 2026 is to be in the range of 15.5% to 16.5%, up from 15% to 16% in the prior quarter.

就淨沖銷而言，我們預期 2026 全年將落在平均放款的 15 至 20 個基點，低於前一季指引的 20 至 25 個基點。我們對 2026 全年有效稅率的預期為 15.5% 至 16.5%，高於前一季的 15% 至 16%。

Regarding stock repurchases, I want to mention that during the fourth quarter, we utilized $70 million of our $300 million approved share repurchase plan to buy back approximately 508,000 shares.

關於庫藏股回購，我想提到在第四季期間，我們動用已核准 3 億美元股票回購計畫中的 7,000 萬美元，回購約 508,000 股。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Phil for questions.

接下來我把電話交回給 Phil 進行提問。

Thanks, Dan. So now we'll open the call up for questions.

謝謝你，Dan。現在我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

(接線員指示) John Pancari，Evercore ISI。

Just on the loan growth front end, you increased the guide to 6% to 7% and maybe if you could just give us a little bit of color there on what you're seeing in terms of demand. What are the drivers for the increased guide? And is it more on the front end production, or is it change in the CRE paydown dynamic? Thanks.

先就放款成長這一塊，你們把指引上調到 6% 到 7%；能否請你們稍微補充一下目前看到的需求狀況。上調指引的驅動因素是什麼？是更多來自前端新增放款量，還是商用不動產（CRE）償還/提前清償動態的變化？謝謝。

It's a combination. I would say that we are seeing some broad-based activity in the commercial end. And especially looking at our consumer residential loans, that's been a driver of growth. And we expect that to continue. On the payoff side, our expectations had included a couple of items that we now think will be, one, being around $200 million of a non-profit C&I loan that we expected to be paid off in the middle part of the second quarter is now projected to be paid off in 2027.

兩者都有。我會說我們在商業端看到一些較為廣泛的活動。尤其是我們的消費者住宅貸款，一直是成長的驅動因素。我們預期這種趨勢會持續。在到期/清償方面，我們原先的預期包含幾個項目；其中之一是我們原本預期在第二季中段會清償的一筆約 2 億美元的非營利機構 C&I 貸款，現在預估將延後到 2027 年才會清償。

And there's an additional $100 million in multifamily loans that we expected in the second quarter that we now think will likely be towards the end of the third quarter. And so just kind of a combination of good activity, some strong bookings, really strong pipelines that Phil mentioned, and then just our residential consumer real estate continues to drive growth.

另外還有一筆約 1 億美元的多戶住宅貸款，我們原本預期在第二季會發生，但現在認為可能會落在第三季末。因此，整體來說是良好的業務活動、一些強勁的承作量、Phil 提到的非常強勁的案源管線，再加上我們的住宅消費者不動產持續帶動成長。

Okay, great. Thanks for the color, Dan. And then on expenses, it came in a little bit better than expected this quarter, at least, in (inaudible) before, but you didn't change the 5% to 6% growth expectation. Is there a bias maybe towards the lower end of that range? And maybe if you can update us if you think positive operating leverage is a possibility for this year and how that could trend going into the earlier part of next year, if you start to see some better ability to manage the cost structure?

好的，很棒。謝謝你提供的說明，Dan。另外在費用方面，本季表現比預期稍好，至少相較於之前的（聽不清楚），但你們沒有調整 5% 到 6% 的成長預期。是否可能偏向該區間的低端？以及你們能否更新一下：今年是否有機會出現正向營運槓桿？若你們開始看到更好的成本結構管理能力，這個趨勢在明年初可能會如何發展？

So on the expenses, it's early. So I think -- what you're going to -- what we would expect to see is second-quarter expenses may run a little higher than what it ran in the first quarter. We just generally have our merit increases and just -- we've added people. And so I would expect that to continue to maybe be a little higher than it was this quarter. And so I think it's probably too early to tell whether we can be on the lower end. I would say that that guidance of 5% to 6%, I feel like it's an appropriate range with what we know now.

關於費用方面，現在還早。所以我認為——你會看到——我們預期第二季費用可能會比第一季略高一些。我們通常會有年度調薪，另外——我們也增聘了人員。因此我預期費用可能會持續、也許會比本季略高。所以我認為現在判斷是否能落在區間低端還太早。我會說，以我們目前所知，5% 到 6% 的指引區間是合適的。

And then on the positive operating leverage -- again, I think we'll be in a good position to have some improvement this year. We're looking -- I think we could be on the upper end depending on how volumes go on our revenue and our NII. And non-interest income, we didn't change it, but I could see that if we're able to execute on some of our team selling that's occurring in our different lines of business, I think that's an opportunity. But again, it's early in the year, and we'd like to see how the rest of this quarter plays out before we look at changing that guidance.

至於正向營運槓桿——同樣地，我認為今年我們會處於有利位置，能看到一些改善。我們在觀察——我認為依收入與淨利息收入（NII）的量能表現而定，我們可能會落在較高端。非利息收入方面，我們沒有調整指引，但如果我們能在各業務線執行一些團隊式銷售，我認為那會是一個機會。但同樣地，現在才年初，我們希望先看看本季剩餘時間的表現，再來考慮是否調整該指引。

Janet Lee, TD Cowen.

Janet Lee，TD Cowen。

On your increased net interest margin guidance, different moving pieces, including large securities repurchases and the quarter, could you talk to us what are the underlying assumptions that led you to the increase in guidance (technical difficulty) outperformance on end in the first quarter?

關於你們上調淨利差指引，考量到不同的變動因素，包括本季大量的證券回購等，你們能否談談促使你們上調指引的核心假設是什麼？（技術問題）以及第一季末端的優於預期表現？

A big part was we took out two cuts in our guide. We had three cuts last quarter and now we just have one. Just for a reminder, we do have in the latter part of the third quarter about $250 million in a treasury bond that matures, earning less than 1%. And that in and of itself is a -- we'll be able to reprice that.

很大一部分原因是我們在指引中拿掉了兩次降息。上季我們預期有三次降息，現在只剩一次。提醒一下，我們在第三季後段有一筆約2.5億美元、到期的美國公債，收益率不到1%。而這本身就是一個——我們將能夠對其重新定價。

So it's a lot of just the same kind of underlying repricing of lower yielding fixed rate either securities or loans. On our loan side, we're still repricing at around 75 basis points higher. And we have about $800 million fixed rate loans either amortizing or maturing for the rest of the year.

所以這很大程度上就是同樣的基本面：把低收益的固定利率資產（不論是證券或貸款）重新定價。在貸款端，我們仍以大約高出75個基點的幅度在重新定價。而今年剩餘期間，約有8億美元的固定利率貸款將攤還或到期。

And so I think those are the primary drivers. And again, like you mentioned, there's a lot of moving parts. We're seeing deposit trends similar to what we've seen in the past. And so if those hold up, we should see back half of the year, deposit growth similar to what we had last year. And so those would be my comments on our NIM.

因此我認為這些是主要驅動因素。而且如你提到的，變動因素很多。我們看到的存款趨勢與過去相似。因此如果這些趨勢能維持，我們應該會在下半年看到與去年類似的存款成長。以上就是我對我們淨利差（NIM）的看法。

Got it. Thank you. And in that assumption versus the 1.55% interest-bearing deposit cost, are you assuming that stays relatively stable around that level or how do you think about that?

了解，謝謝。那在這個假設下，相較於1.55%的計息存款成本，你們是假設它大致會維持在這個水準附近，還是你們怎麼看？

Could you repeat that, Janet?

Janet，你可以再說一次嗎？

What is your assumption for the interest-bearing deposit cost, the direction of travel there versus 1.55% in the first quarter?

你們對計息存款成本的假設是什麼？相較於第一季的1.55%，接下來的走勢如何？

That's a good question. On our betas, on our interest-bearing deposits, Phil mentioned in his remarks that it's a competitive environment. And we're recognizing that and we feel like we can compete really well. But with that, we feel like we'll have to increase some of our deposit rates. And so I think we're running about mid-40s, 45% beta thus far. But I think you could see that maybe go down to the low 40s in terms of a beta.

這是個好問題。就我們的存款貝塔（beta）而言，針對計息存款，Phil在他的發言中提到目前競爭環境激烈。我們也認知到這點，並且覺得我們有能力很好地競爭。但在此情況下，我們認為必須提高部分存款利率。因此目前我們大約在40%中段、約45%的貝塔。但我認為你可能會看到它在貝塔的角度降到40%出頭。

And we recognize that. I think we also have a plan where we're going to -- we have some levers, we have some optionality with our liquidity. And we can protect our net interest income and net interest margin by pulling forward some purchases in our securities portfolio.

我們也認知到這點。我想我們也有一個計畫——我們有一些槓桿可以運用，流動性方面也有一些選擇權。我們可以透過提前在證券投資組合中進行部分買入，來保護我們的淨利息收入與淨利差。

And so that's right now, that's our plan. We're going to -- we feel like this is a great opportunity with the market disruption. And we want to give the tools and the products to our bankers in the market. And we feel like they can compete. And we would expect our volumes -- deposit volumes to follow.

所以目前這就是我們的計畫。我們認為在市場出現擾動的情況下，這是一個很好的機會。我們希望把工具與產品提供給我們在市場上的銀行業務團隊。我們相信他們能夠競爭。我們也預期我們的量——存款量會隨之跟上。

Casey Hare, Autonomous Research.

Autonomous Research 的 Casey Hare。

So I wanted to hit on the NII guide. So it feels a little conservative. If we're moving from three cuts to one and the rule of thumb is $2 million of NII per month, like, that's about $30 million of NII right there, which is 2% or we'll call it 1.5% more conservatively. So the low end only going up 50 basis points. There's some sort of headwind working against you guys relative to January. I'm just wondering what that is.

我想談一下淨利息收入（NII）的指引。感覺有點保守。如果我們從三次降息變成一次，而經驗法則是每月NII約200萬美元，那光這裡就大概是3,000萬美元的NII，也就是2%（或保守一點說1.5%）。所以低端只上調50個基點。相較於1月，你們似乎有某種逆風在抵銷。我想知道那是什麼。

I would just keep in mind when those cuts, we had them kind of -- we had one in April, one in July. So with the timing of those cuts makes a difference. And I think it goes to what my previous comments were on the competitive environment that we feel like we'll be in. And whether that's loan pricing or deposit pricing, we want to be in the best shape to be able to do that.

我會提醒大家，當時那些降息我們的安排是——我們有一次在4月、一次在7月。所以降息的時間點不同會有影響。而且我想這也回到我先前對競爭環境的評論：我們認為我們將處於那樣的環境中。不論是貸款定價或存款定價，我們都希望讓自己處於最佳狀態以便應對。

We have the lowest cost of deposits in the marketplace that we know of that we compete. And so we feel like this is a great time to grow, but most of that growth will be in the back half of the year. The second quarter and part of the third quarter are really when we're going to be implementing these changes. And so it's going to take some time to work its way through the balance sheet.

在我們所知、我們競爭的市場中，我們擁有最低的存款成本。因此我們覺得現在是成長的好時機，但大部分成長會在下半年出現。第二季以及第三季的一部分，才是我們真正要落實這些變更的時期。因此這需要一些時間才能在資產負債表上逐步反映出來。

Okay. All right. And then just moving to speeds. I know there's seasonality working against you in insurance. But the guide implies a pretty decent step down, even be it factoring in the insurance. Is there anything else that's working as a headwind?

好的，了解。接著談到手續費收入（fees）的節奏。我知道保險業務有季節性因素對你們不利。但指引暗示會有相當明顯的下滑，即使把保險因素納入考量也是如此。還有其他逆風因素嗎？

Yeah, I would just keep in mind, we did go through some changes in our wealth management area. And so to make the changes in leadership and organizational changes and to expect an increase in this year, we kind of think those changes will start to bear fruit next year.

是的，我會提醒大家，我們在財富管理領域確實做了一些調整。因此在領導層變動與組織調整之後，要期待今年就出現提升，我們認為這些變更的成果大概會在明年開始顯現。

So I think wealth management is an area that we see the right people are there, the right, I would say, alignment between our lines of business is there. But that's going to take time to work its way through. The first quarter had some one-time items. We provide loans and leases. We had a lease termination that was terminated early that derived about $2.5 million.

所以我認為財富管理是我們看到：合適的人已到位，而且我會說，我們各業務線之間也有了正確的協同與一致性。但這需要時間才能逐步發酵。第一季有一些一次性項目。我們提供貸款與租賃。我們有一筆租賃提前終止，帶來約250萬美元的收益。

And then we had just some one-time items in trust that we expected we were going to get in the fourth quarter of last year that we got this year, and that was around $1 million. So there's just some one-time events in the first quarter that positively impacted the first quarter that we're not anticipating in the following quarters.

另外，我們在信託業務也有一些一次性項目：原本預期去年第四季會收到，但今年才收到，約100萬美元。所以第一季有一些一次性事件對第一季有正面影響，而我們不預期後續季度還會出現。

Jared Shaw, Barclays.

Barclays 的 Jared Shaw。

I guess on credit, the charge-off outlook was lower. But you spoke about the resolution for some of the criticized loans. Any color on what's sort of driving the optimism that you're going to see that resolution in second and third quarter?

我想就信用品質來問，核銷（charge-off）展望更低。但你提到一些被列為關注（criticized）的貸款將會有解決方案。能否補充一下，是什麼在推動你們對第二、第三季能看到解決的樂觀預期？

Did you say color on what's driving the optimism of the second and third quarter? Is that what you said?

你是說，想了解是什麼在推動對第二、第三季的樂觀預期嗎？你是這個意思嗎？

Yes, you said on the call earlier that the potential problem loans or criticized loan increases you felt would see some resolution in the second and third quarter of this year. Just any color on what's driving that optimism?

是的，你在稍早的電話會議中提到，今年第二、第三季，對於潛在問題貸款或被列為關注的貸款增加，你們覺得會看到一些解決。想請你補充一下，是什麼在推動這個樂觀預期？

Yeah, it's related to transactions that are in process that have had some technical reasons behind why they've not happened to the extent that they expected. But they're still in place and working to a resolution. It would take a pretty significant derailment of what's going on for that not to happen.

是的，這與正在進行中的交易有關；由於一些技術性原因，這些交易沒有如他們原先預期的那樣完成。但交易仍在進行，並朝著解決方向推進。除非目前的進展出現相當重大的偏離，否則不太可能不發生。

So those things are possible, but we don't expect that to happen. And so we have pretty good visibility on what's out there. And right now, we believe that we're getting some relief there.

所以那些情況是有可能發生，但我們不預期會發生。因此我們對外部情況有相當好的能見度。而就目前而言，我們相信那邊正在獲得一些緩解。

And then when you look over the last two quarters, you've had consistent growth in the residential. Any thoughts on how that uptick will be going in the next few quarters? Or is it more rate dependent?

另外，回顧過去兩季，你們在住宅貸款方面都有持續成長。對於未來幾季這個增速會如何，有什麼想法嗎？還是會更取決於利率？

I really believe that our value proposition in the market is beginning to take hold. And we've got great referral activity from our internal bankers. And I believe we're also getting our brand out there in the ecosystem of realtor community, et cetera. And so I think we're seeing more momentum there.

我確實相信，我們在市場上的價值主張正開始站穩腳跟。而且我們的內部銀行家帶來了很好的轉介活動。我也相信，我們的品牌正在房仲社群等生態圈中逐步打開知名度。因此我認為我們在那裡看到了更多動能。

I think we were hopeful that we could do $850 million by the end of the year. In this chair right now, we're about $750 million, which is up from where it was at the end of the quarter, which we reported. The momentum is pretty good, and I expect us for it to continue to be.

我想我們原本希望在年底前做到8.5億美元。以我現在這個位置來看，我們大約在7.5億美元，較我們所報告的季度末水準有所提升。動能相當不錯，我也預期會持續下去。

So the other thing I would say about it is the character of the business still looks good. The credit dynamics are very strong; mid-700s is pretty much where we are. And our customer experience is great, and our technology is great around it. So I expect good things for it. We had an aggressive plan for it a few years ago when we announced it, and I'm confident of us making that plan.

另外我想說的是，這項業務的品質特徵看起來仍然很好。信用動態非常強勁；我們大致落在700多分的中段。而且我們的客戶體驗很棒，相關技術也很出色。所以我對它的前景很看好。我們在幾年前宣布時就為它訂了很積極的計畫，我有信心能達成那個計畫。

And it's been a good driver of new relationships as well. 40% of our mortgage customers, and now we have over 1,500 mortgage customers are new to the bank. This is their first product.

它也成為帶動新往來關係的良好驅動力。我們的房貸客戶中有40%（目前我們已有超過1,500位房貸客戶）是銀行的新客戶。這是他們的第一個產品。

Out of those 40%, we've been able to convert 30% to open up a banking relationship with us on the -- with a checking account. Right now, we're pleased with our ability to convert those customers, the new mortgage customers to a more broad-based full banking relationship. And I'd expect to see that number to continue to trend up.

在這40%之中，我們已能將其中30%轉換為與我們建立銀行往來關係——也就是開立支票帳戶。目前我們對於把這些新的房貸客戶轉換成更廣泛、完整的銀行往來關係的能力感到滿意。我也預期這個數字會持續上升。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

Manan Gosalia，摩根士丹利。

So in response, I think, to Casey's question earlier, you mentioned competitive factors weighing a little bit on the outlook. But you're also saying it's a great time to grow and you're leaning in here. So just wanted to get a sense of what impact that is having, that competition is having on spreads, and maybe on structure in areas where you're planning to grow?

我想回應一下先前Casey的問題，你提到競爭因素對展望有些壓力。但你同時也說現在是成長的好時機，你們會加大投入。所以我想了解，這種競爭對利差的影響，以及在你們計畫成長的領域，對交易結構可能造成的影響？

Good question. It's clearly more competitive, I believe, than it was a quarter ago. And it's been getting that way, I think, for some time now. But as we go into earlier in the year, I think there's a lot of optimism typically on people's parts and people who might not have been in a particular asset class the year before or topped out. They've got room to do that now.

好問題。我認為競爭顯然比一季前更激烈。而且我覺得這種情況已經持續一段時間、逐步加劇。不過每年年初通常大家都比較樂觀，有些人前一年可能沒有做某個資產類別，或是已經做到上限。現在他們又有空間可以做了。

And so I think we're seeing some of that. I think we're seeing the competition that has been moving into the state, both from people that have recently purchased things and people that have bought things in the past, and then some people that just want to do business here. We're seeing that, particularly for the good business. Really be competitive on price, I think, is what we're seeing primarily. It's the easiest thing for people to compete on so you see that.

所以我想我們正在看到其中一部分情況。我們看到有競爭者進入本州，包括最近才收購資產的、過去就買過資產的，還有一些只是想在這裡做生意的人。我們特別在優質業務上看到這種情況。我認為主要是價格競爭變得非常激烈。價格是最容易拿來競爭的，所以你就會看到這一點。

You're seeing some competition on structure as well, the typical things with regard to recourse, interest-only periods, levels of capital required in deals, all those kinds of things. And we are responding to it. We are -- we don't intend to lose good business and good relationships over some competition.

在結構條件上也有一些競爭，像是追索權、只付利息期間、交易所需資本水準等這些典型項目。而我們也在回應。我們——不打算因為一些競爭就失去好的業務與好的關係。

We are a low-cost producer, in my view, on funding cost. And so we're able to bring all those things to the table. And as a company, we're really focused on making the right decisions for a particular relationship and not painting everything with the same paintbrush. So I think we're being nimble and aggressive on defending things. And we intend to compete, and we intend to win. That's been our history, and I expect us to continue to do it.

以資金成本來看，我認為我們是低成本的生產者。因此我們能把這些優勢都帶到桌面上。而且作為一家公司，我們非常專注於針對特定關係做出正確決策，而不是用同一把刷子把所有事情都刷成一樣。所以我認為我們在防守上既靈活也積極。我們打算競爭，也打算贏。這一直是我們的歷史，我也預期我們會持續如此。

And Phil had mentioned that this quarter, we typically get about 50% of our new relationships from the too big to fail. By number, that actually ticked up a little bit. But by percentage, it went from 50%-ish to 46%. And we actually gained 8% of our new relationships from what we'll call kind of the disruption institutions, the banks that have either been acquired or the ones that are entering into our market.

另外Phil提到，本季我們通常約有50%的新往來關係來自「大到不能倒」的機構。以件數來看，這個比例其實小幅上升。但以百分比來看，從約50%降到46%。而我們從所謂的「受衝擊機構」（也就是被併購的銀行或正在進入我們市場的銀行）獲得的新往來關係，實際上增加了8%。

And that increased. We look at the last two quarters, that number of new relationships we've been able to win from those institutions is up 43%. And so what I think is even more impressive is that the opportunities that we've received over really since I'll say over the last 15 months from those institutions, a typical ratio of wins for a prospect is around a third. And we're actually winning opportunities from prospects from these institutions at an 82% rate, which tells me that there is -- those pain points that there -- that our prospects and now new customers are feeling that are driving those opportunities for us to win those relationships.

而且那個數字還在增加。看過去兩季，我們從那些機構贏得的新往來關係數量增加了43%。我認為更令人印象深刻的是，從我說的過去大約15個月以來，我們從那些機構獲得的機會中，一般而言對單一潛在客戶的典型勝率大約是三分之一。但我們從這些機構的潛在客戶那裡贏得機會的勝率達到82%，這告訴我，確實存在一些痛點——我們的潛在客戶、以及現在的新客戶正在感受到的痛點——正在推動這些機會，讓我們能贏得這些往來關係。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then maybe separately, I know energy as a percentage of loans is a lot lower than it was several years ago. But given higher energy prices today, are you seeing any increase in activity across the economy? Anything that's helping you guys on the loan side in this 55% increase in loan pipelines that you spoke about earlier?

了解。這很有幫助。另外我想分開問一下，我知道能源在放款中的占比比幾年前低很多。但在目前能源價格較高的情況下，你們是否看到整體經濟活動有任何增加？是否有任何因素在放款端幫助你們，對你先前提到放款管線增加55%有所貢獻？

I don't think we're seeing a lot of activity today, but we're seeing some increases -- well, when I say activity. I don't think we're seeing a lot of loan activity increase today. But I think there is some more activity in the industry at these prices. And just talking to some of our customers, they are beginning to take advantage of it, talking to them about some of the largest servicers.

我不認為我們今天看到很多活動，但我們看到一些增加——嗯，我說活動的意思是：我不認為我們今天看到放款活動大幅增加。但我認為在這樣的價格水準下，產業內確實有更多活動。而且從與一些客戶的對話來看，他們開始利用這個環境，包括我和一些最大的服務商談到的情況。

The white space, as they say, that's been on the calendars of these service companies, it's filled up, so they don't have a lot of additional room. Their capacity is being utilized. So that tells you that they are busier. You're actually seeing the fees, the revenue prices, if you will. Their services go up. I think tubular costs, for example, were up 5% to 10% recently.

他們所說的「空白檔期」——也就是這些服務公司的行事曆空檔——已經被填滿了，所以他們沒有太多額外空間。他們的產能正在被使用。這就表示他們更忙了。你也確實看到費用、也就是收入價格（如果你願意這麼說）的上升。他們的服務價格在上漲。例如管材成本，最近上漲了5%到10%。

And so there's enough activity that these service companies are having the ability to increase their price point, which is really, I think, a good thing because over the last several years, they've been beat down pretty hard. And so in general, I think that there is going to be some more activity, and I think our customers believe that.

因此活動量已足以讓這些服務公司有能力提高其定價點，我認為這其實是件好事，因為過去幾年他們被壓得很辛苦。所以整體而言，我認為活動會增加一些，而我也認為我們的客戶相信會如此。

I think that they -- most people believe that even if you do have a resolution to the Iran war, even in a couple of weeks, it will take the better part of the rest of the year to normalize things. And so you should have some support on price during that time.

我想他們——大多數人都認為，即使伊朗戰爭能夠解決，就算在幾週內有結果，也需要今年剩餘的大部分時間才能讓情況正常化。因此在那段期間，價格應該會得到一些支撐。

I think another thing that could maybe not so much bring -- well, it could bring activity because it's dampening things right now. You have the situation of a negative gas price for gas is being produced in the Permian Basin. I think it's around a net $7 or so negative price today.

我想另一件事也許不一定會帶來——嗯，它可能會帶來活動，因為它目前正在抑制一些事情。你有一個情況是，在二疊紀盆地生產的天然氣出現負的氣價。我想今天大約是淨負7美元左右。

And so I'm familiar with some energies that have curtailed large volume producing wells, wells that produce lots of oil, but has a high gas component. They're actually curtailing that production because the negative cost of getting rid of the gas offsets the really high price that they're getting today. And so the economics of it are destroyed there. But if you look at the forward market, that differential is, as they call it, that negative is anticipated to go down.

因此我熟悉一些能源業者，他們已經在限縮一些高產量井的產出——這些井能產出大量原油，但伴生氣比例很高。他們其實是在限縮產量，因為處理／處置天然氣的負成本，抵銷了他們今天能拿到的很高油價。所以那邊的經濟性就被破壞了。但如果你看遠期市場，那個價差——他們所說的那個負值——預期會下降。

I've seen it owe $1, $1.50. And I think that would take some pressure off of these producers of these high-volume wells when that happens. And so we could see some increase in activity in the Permian Basin as a result of that. So maybe more color than you wanted. But I would say the bottom line is we haven't seen a lot of demand for credit right now, but I think we're seeing more activity, and it could lead to that.

我看過它是負 1 美元、負 1.50 美元。我認為當那種情況發生時，會減輕這些高產量井生產商的一些壓力。因此我們可能會因此看到二疊紀盆地的活動增加。所以也許比你想要的資訊還多。

David Chiaverini, Jefferies.

David Chiaverini，Jefferies。

So on capital, also, three endgame proposal. Can you talk about the benefits there and then touch on the extent to which that could change your appetite for buybacks?

那麼在資本方面，還有三項 endgame 提案。你能談談那裡的好處，並且提一下這在多大程度上可能改變你們對庫藏股回購的偏好嗎？

Yeah, we've looked -- we've started to look at it. We know it's not finalized. And yes, it will be marginally better for us. And as I think I would mention, as our mortgage portfolio grows, that also will be beneficial based on what the proposed guidelines, again, if they're finalized.

是的，我們已經開始研究——我們知道它還沒有定案。而且是的，對我們來說會略為更有利。另外我想我也會提到，隨著我們的房貸投資組合成長，根據提案中的指引（同樣前提是最後定案），那也會帶來好處。

And so I think -- I would say that it's early, we've looked at it. But I think really until it's finalized, I think, in general, we're going to keep with our strategy of being consistent with our buyback, as we've mentioned in the past, keeping some for just opportunistic. And so just I don't think it's necessarily changes anything right now. Again, it's not finalized yet, so that's what I would have to say.

所以我想——我會說現在還早，我們已經看過了。但我認為在它定案之前，整體而言，我們會維持我們一貫的策略：如同過去提到的，回購會保持一致性，同時保留一部分作為機會性操作。所以我不認為它現在必然改變任何事情。再說一次，它還沒定案，所以我只能這麼說。

Got it. And then shifting to the expansion markets, last quarter, I think you mentioned that the EPS contribution could be $0.35, $0.45. Any update to that guide? Are you still feeling good about that contribution level for the year?

了解。接著談到擴張市場，上季我記得你提到 EPS 貢獻可能是 0.35 美元到 0.45 美元。這個指引有更新嗎？你們對今年這個貢獻水準仍然有信心嗎？

I mean, I would say that it is likely on the high side of that. We had $0.14 in the first quarter, and it's likely to be pretty consistent with it trending up towards the end of the year. So we'll be at the higher end of that. And maybe I would say $0.40 to $0.50 is a probably better outlook, just depending on what volumes end up being in those expansion locations.

我的意思是，我會說它很可能落在那個區間的高端。我們第一季是 0.14 美元，而且很可能會相當一致，並在年底前呈現上升趨勢。所以我們會在那個區間的高端。也許我會說 0.40 美元到 0.50 美元可能是更好的展望，主要取決於那些擴張據點最終的量能。

We feel like they're still driving new relationships. 40% of the new relationships last quarter in Houston came from those expansion branches, 30% in Dallas. New relationship came from the expansion. And then Austin, which is the youngest of the named ones, 16% of those came from the expansion. So still feel really good about how they're performing.

我們覺得它們仍在帶動新的往來關係。上季休士頓新增往來關係中有 40% 來自那些擴張分行，達拉斯是 30%。新增往來關係來自擴張。然後奧斯汀——在這些被點名的城市中是最年輕的——其中有 16% 來自擴張。所以我們仍然對它們的表現感到非常滿意。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Dave Rochester, Cantor Fitzgerald.

Dave Rochester，Cantor Fitzgerald。

Good afternoon, guys. Just back on the capital, I was wondering how you're thinking about the pace of the buyback here. Just with the stock moving higher, which is a good problem to have, how are you thinking about that level of buyback going forward at this point?

各位下午好。再回到資本這塊，我想請教你們如何看待目前回購的節奏。考量股價走高——這是個好問題——你們此刻如何看待未來的回購水準？

I mean, I would say that we're still going to -- there's a component where we'll be consistent. And then there's a component that we're going to likely be opportunistic and then a component that we may want to hold back for just that maybe a macro environment that just creates an opportunity. So that's kind of the way that we look at utilizing that buyback.

我的意思是，我會說我們仍然會——其中有一部分會保持一致性。然後有一部分我們可能會採取機會性操作，另外也可能保留一部分，以因應可能出現、能創造機會的總體環境。所以這大概就是我們運用回購的方式。

Yeah, okay. And then maybe just one more. Just back on the competitive pressures you were talking about, I know you've mentioned and we've heard a lot of that's coming from some of the newer banks that are buying into the market and trying to pay up for business. Are you still thinking that the disruption that they're causing in those markets that are loosening up available bankers and customers, is it all still a net positive for you guys if you take a step back? You've got the stronger competitive pressures, but then you're adding and capturing more value for the franchise. Just curious how you're thinking about it. Thanks.

好的。那也許再問一個。回到你剛才提到的競爭壓力，我知道你們提過、我們也聽到很多，這些壓力來自一些較新的銀行進入市場，並試圖用更高的價格去搶業務。如果你退一步看，你們仍然認為他們在那些市場造成的擾動——讓可用的銀行家與客戶更鬆動——整體對你們仍是淨正面嗎？你們面臨更強的競爭壓力，但同時也在為特許經營權增加並捕捉更多價值。只是好奇你們怎麼看。謝謝。

I think you're right. I think it's a net positive today. It affects spreads on deals where we've had to be more aggressive. But I think we've been pretty good at capturing deals. We have seen -- I think the percentage of deals we've lost on price has increased pretty significantly. That was influenced by a large customer that got -- that deal went to a specialty lender and it was -- that one would have been hard to win. But even taking that out, I think you've seen more deals lost to price.

我覺得你說得對。我認為就今天而言是淨正面。它會影響到我們必須更積極的那些交易的利差。但我認為我們在拿下交易方面做得相當不錯。我們確實看到——我想我們因價格而輸掉的交易比例顯著上升。那受到一個大型客戶的影響——那筆交易被一家專業放款機構拿走了——那一筆本來就很難贏。但即便把那筆排除，我想你也會看到更多交易因價格而流失。

But even given that, I think that we're still winning overall, and we'll be winning on the long term. A customer that sees a deal priced really low, more than what it -- or lower than it should have been, they know that, and they know that things will normalize. But when you talk about the relationships that Dan had mentioned, where we've brought those -- that 8% of those new relationships from those disruptive banks, those things are going to be around for a long time. And so I think that on balance, it's still a positive to us.

但即便如此，我認為我們整體仍在勝出，而且長期來看也會勝出。客戶看到一筆交易被定價得非常低——高於它應有的程度，或低於它應有的程度——他們是知道的，也知道情況終將回歸正常。但當你談到 Dan 提到的那些往來關係——我們把那些被擾動銀行帶來的新往來關係中的 8% 帶過來——那些關係會維持很長一段時間。所以我認為整體而言，對我們仍然是正面的。

Matt Olney, Stephens.

Matt Olney，Stephens。

I want to go back to the deposit discussion, and I believe there was a mention previously of tweaking the deposit growth strategy that could drive more growth the back half of the year. It doesn't sound like you've implemented any of these new strategies yet. Just hoping you could elaborate on what that would look like.

我想回到存款的討論，我記得之前提到過，會微調存款成長策略，以在今年下半年帶動更多成長。聽起來你們似乎還沒有實施任何這些新策略。希望你們能更詳細說明那會是什麼樣子。

And it's really on the interest-bearing side with what I would call kind of the emerging affluent market that we feel like we do a really good job of bringing over. And they're adopting our digital channels really well, but it's really targeting those tiers of not really -- we feel like we compete really well in kind of the higher end, but really kind of the mid-tiers.

這主要是在計息端，針對我所稱的「新興富裕」市場，我們覺得我們很擅長把他們吸引過來。他們對我們的數位通路採用得很好，但重點是鎖定那些層級——我們覺得在較高端我們競爭力很強，但更重要的是中間層級。

And so I would expect that to really be more impactful in the second half and really towards the tail end of the year where you'll see the growth. And so that's kind of our strategy. We recognize that it does come with a cost, and we have the liquidity and to really offset that cost by bringing forward investment purchases. And so that will be our strategy to kind of be the counterweight on your NIM and NII.

因此我預期這在下半年、尤其接近年底時會更有影響力，屆時你會看到成長。所以這就是我們的策略。我們也認知到這會帶來成本，而我們有流動性，並且可以透過提前帶動投資購買來抵銷那個成本。因此這將是我們的策略，用來作為你們 NIM 與 NII 的平衡力量。

So we're -- that's our strategy. And we feel like if we can -- if our customer service is second to none and if we're offering what we call a square deal that we can not only grow new relationships, but we can also capture more of their wallet. And it's really in this emerging affluent I would call it millennials in the Gen X and Gen Y that we're really kind of looking to make an impact.

所以我們——這就是我們的策略。我們覺得如果我們的客戶服務無可匹敵，並且提供我們所說的公平交易（square deal），我們不僅能成長新的往來關係，也能掌握他們更多的錢包份額。而我們真正想要產生影響的，是我所稱的新興富裕族群——也就是千禧世代，以及 X 世代與 Y 世代——我們正著眼於在那裡發揮影響力。

Okay. Appreciate the color there. And just to follow-up on that, how much of the deposit growth that's embedded in the guidance is also from your assumption of lower interest rates? So in other words, if we don't see any Fed cuts, should we assume that you could get the lower end of that deposit growth guidance?

好的。感謝你提供這些補充說明。再追問一下，你們指引中所隱含的存款成長，有多少也來自於你們對利率走低的假設？換句話說，如果我們沒有看到聯準會降息，我們是否應該假設你們的存款成長會落在該指引區間的低端？

I think that we only have one cut in the fourth quarter. And so it really doesn't have much impact on 2026. So I wouldn't say it would have a meaningful impact on that deposit growth. Now I guess if rates were to go up, that would be a -- you'd have to factor that in.

我認為我們只假設在第四季降息一次。因此對 2026 年其實影響不大。所以我不會說這會對存款成長造成有意義的影響。不過我想，如果利率要上升，那就——你就必須把那個因素納入考量。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

Jon Arfstrom，RBC Capital Markets。

Thanks. A couple of follow-ups here. Phil, on the pipeline changes, records, on the two areas you mentioned, what is driving that? Is that Texas, or is that new branches, or what do you attribute that to?

謝謝。我這裡有幾個追問。Phil，關於管線（pipeline）的變化、創新高的部分，就你提到的兩個領域，是什麼在驅動？是德州的因素，還是新分行，或你把它歸因於什麼？

I think it's both. Dan mentioned the percentages that is of a company of the region's loan growth that's coming from the expansion. They're pretty dramatic, particularly in some of the more mature regions. But I'll tell you, Jon, the growth that we've seen in the pipeline is very broadly based. It's in deals over $10 million, which we call large deals. It's in deals under $10 million, which we call core deals. It's almost split half and half C&I and commercial real estate. And it's broadly based among the various regions.

我認為兩者都有。Dan 提到，整個區域的貸款成長中，有多少比例來自擴張。那些數字相當驚人，特別是在一些較成熟的區域。但我想說的是，Jon，我們在管線中看到的成長其實非常廣泛。包含超過 1,000 萬美元的案子，我們稱之為大型案（large deals）。也包含低於 1,000 萬美元的案子，我們稱之為核心案（core deals）。在 C&I（工商貸款）與商用不動產之間幾乎各半，而且在各個區域之間也相當分散。

And as I talk to our bankers in these regions, one of the things that I've heard consistently recently is that people have kind of become accustomed -- maybe resigned is a better word to the interest rates. I think last year, people were waiting for rates to go down. I think there's been a recognition that rates are where they're going to be for a while. And if you want to do business, you've got to move forward. And I think there's been some deals that hadn't been happening that were delayed, canceled. And we're seeing those come to the forefront.

而且當我和這些區域的銀行同仁交流時，我最近一直聽到的一點是：大家某種程度上已經習慣——或許用「認命」更貼切——目前的利率水準。我認為去年大家還在等利率下降。但現在大家已經認知到，利率可能會在這個水準維持一段時間。如果你要做生意，就必須往前走。我想有些原本沒有發生、被延後或取消的交易，現在正重新浮上檯面。

I think tariffs have been, for the vast majority of our customers, taken into account. And they're really not a key factor right now. If I had to say the biggest disruption right now, I think, is fuel costs and transportation. But hopefully, that's going to be a short or a shorter-term thing. But I don't believe that's keeping businesses from moving forward and investing right now. I think it's mainly an impact on the margin. So it's broad enough that I can't point to one particular thing. But I do think that a recognition that rates are sort of where they are, and if a business is going to move forward, they need to do it, and I think we're seeing some of that.

我認為對我們絕大多數客戶而言，關稅已經被納入考量。而且目前並不是關鍵因素。如果要說現在最大的干擾，我認為是燃料成本與運輸。但希望那會是短期或較短期的狀況。不過我不認為這會讓企業目前不敢往前走或不敢投資。我認為主要影響是在利潤率。所以範圍很廣，我無法指向單一特定因素。但我確實認為，大家已經認知利率大致就是這樣；如果企業要推進，就得推進，而我們也看到了一些這樣的情況。

Good. Thank you. And then, Dan, I'm not sure how to ask this one, but I think when I do the math, you maybe have about 65 new branches since 2018 or around there.

很好。謝謝。接著，Dan，我不太確定該怎麼問，但我算了一下，你們自 2018 年以來可能新增了大約 65 家分行，差不多是這個數字。

Yeah, it's actually closer to 80, it's 79.

對，其實更接近 80 家，是 79 家。

Okay. What does a seven-year-old branch look like from Houston 1.0? How immature is a branch like that? I do the math, and it looks like with $3.2 billion, these are still much, much smaller deposits per branch than your fully mature branches. But what does some of the early vintages look like?

好的。那麼，Houston 1.0 的一間七年分行大概是什麼樣子？像那樣的分行成熟度還有多不成熟？我算了一下，存款是 32 億美元，這些分行的單店存款仍然遠、遠低於你們完全成熟的分行。但早期批次（vintages）的表現大概是什麼樣？

Yeah. So when we look at the earlier vintages, we're right around -- in Houston 1.0, their deposits are right at around $1.6 billion. And you're right that they're right around six years, and they continue to grow at over 10% year over year. And they will continue to grow for the next three or four years.

是的。所以當我們看較早期的批次，在 Houston 1.0，那些分行的存款大約在 16 億美元左右。你說得對，它們大約六年左右，而且年增率仍然超過 10%。而且未來三到四年還會持續成長。

So you would -- I'm sorry and let me -- I was quoting last year. It went from -- it grew 10% from last year to this year. It's gone from $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion for those 25 locations. So that I think you can kind of use as what we look at is -- that's what we're expectation for Dallas and for Houston 2.0 and for Austin. And then these other locations that are now the eight that we've added, they're right over three years. And on average, they're right around that $53 million in deposits and $35 million in loans. So they're producing well.

所以你會——抱歉，我再補充一下——我剛剛引用的是去年的數字。它是從去年到今年成長了 10%。那 25 個據點的存款從 16 億美元成長到 18 億美元。所以我想你可以把這當作我們對達拉斯、Houston 2.0 以及奧斯汀的預期參考。然後其他那些我們新增的 8 個據點，目前大約三年多。平均而言，每個據點大約有 5,300 萬美元存款與 3,500 萬美元貸款。所以它們的產出表現不錯。

And do you feel like we're cresting here in terms of the expense pressures and mid-single digit is the right level over kind of the medium-term for the company?

另外，你是否覺得在費用壓力方面我們正在到頂，而中個位數成長（mid-single digit）會是公司中期的合理水準？

What I would say is that you're going to have opportunities to make investments, whether that's AI, whether it's to continue to grow in the Texas market. So I mean, I feel like we're in a good space where it could be in this mid-single digits. But there could be efforts that we decide strategically over time will yield a good return that you would see it go up for a year or two to accomplish that strategic mission. And to go back on in your Houston 1.0, just doing the math of that deposits per branch, it's around $72 million now. For Houston, that's now six years old.

我會說，你們會有機會進行投資，不論是 AI，或是持續在德州市場擴張。所以我的意思是，我覺得我們目前處在一個不錯的位置，費用成長可能落在中個位數。但也可能有一些我們隨時間在策略上決定要做的事情，能帶來良好回報；那麼你可能會看到為了完成那個策略任務，費用在一兩年內上升。再回到你提到的 Houston 1.0，若用每家分行的存款來算，現在大約是 7,200 萬美元。對休士頓而言，這些分行現在大約六年。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to management for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把時間交回管理層作結語。

Okay, everyone. Again, once again, I apologize for the glitch that occurred earlier but really do appreciate you coming back on and allowing us to answer your questions. So thanks so much. Appreciate your support. We're adjourned.

好的，各位。再次，我為先前發生的技術問題致歉，但也非常感謝大家重新加入，讓我們能回答各位的問題。非常感謝。感謝各位的支持。會議到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, once again, we thank you for your participation. This will conclude today's teleconference and webcast. Please disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

各位女士先生，再次感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議與網路直播到此結束。請掛斷電話，祝各位有美好的一天。