Certara Inc (CERT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Certara fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Certara 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, David Deuchler of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係部的 David Deuchler。請繼續。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you all for participating in today's conference call. On the call from Certara, we have William Feehery, Chief Executive Officer; and John Gallagher, Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。在 Certara 的電話會議中，我們採訪了執行長 William Feehery；以及財務長 John Gallagher。

Earlier today, Certara released financial results for the full year ended December 31, 2024. Copy of the press release is available on the company's website.

今天早些時候，Certara 發布了截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的全年財務表現。新聞稿副本可在該公司網站上查閱。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management will make statements during this call that includes forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to slide 2 in the accompanying materials for additional information, which you can find on the company's Investor Relations website.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，管理階層將在本次電話會議中發表包括前瞻性陳述在內的聲明，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。請參閱隨附資料中的幻燈片 2 以獲取更多信息，您可以在公司的投資者關係網站上找到這些資訊。

In the remarks and responses to questions, management may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in the recent earnings press release available on the company's website. Please refer to the reconciliation tables in the accompanying materials for additional information.

在評論和回答問題時，管理階層可能會提到一些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳表可在公司網站上的最新收益新聞稿中找到。請參閱隨附資料中的對帳表以獲取更多資訊。

This conference call contains time-sensitive information and is accurate only as of the live broadcast today, February 26, 2025. Certara disclaims any obligation, except as required by law, to update or revise any financial projections or forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or otherwise.

本次電話會議包含時間敏感訊息，僅截至今天（2025 年 2 月 26 日）的現場直播時準確。除法律要求外，Certara 不承擔更新或修改任何財務預測或前瞻性聲明的任何義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

And with that, I will turn the call over to William.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給威廉。

Thank you, David. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining Certara's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. John and I will begin with prepared remarks, and then we will take your questions.

謝謝你，大衛。大家下午好。感謝您參加 Certara 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。約翰和我將先發表準備好的發言，然後回答大家的提問。

We were pleased to finish the year with strong commercial execution across both software and services as we deliver financial results consistent with the expectations we outlined in November. We finished 2024 with revenue of $385.1 million, representing 9% reported growth versus 2023. Certara's fourth-quarter bookings of $144.5 million represented 22% growth versus the prior year, driven by a software bookings growth of 38% and services bookings growth of 12%.

我們很高興以軟體和服務領域強勁的商業執行力結束了這一年，因為我們提供的財務業績與我們 11 月概述的預期一致。2024 年我們的營收為 3.851 億美元，較 2023 年成長 9%。Certara 第四季的預訂額為 1.445 億美元，較上年增長 22%，其中軟體預訂額增長 38%，服務預訂額增長 12%。

During the fourth quarter, we saw a healthy software and biosimulation services bookings performance from our Tier 1 and Tier 3 customers as drug developers around the world continue to use biosimulation to optimize their development processes. Additionally, our regulatory services business had a good quarter, delivering solid bookings, which represented a return to growth. We are encouraged by our strong finish to the year and are now squarely focused on executing our 2025 goals.

在第四季度，隨著世界各地的藥物開發商繼續使用生物模擬來優化其開發流程，我們看到來自一級和三級客戶的軟體和生物模擬服務預訂表現良好。此外，我們的監管服務業務本季表現良好，並實現了穩健的訂單，這代表著業務恢復成長。我們對今年的強勁表現感到鼓舞，現在我們正全心全意地致力於實現我們的 2025 年目標。

At Certara, we are enabling model-informed drug development or MIDD, in the global biopharmaceutical industry. MIDD is an approach that uses biological and statistical models derived from preclinical and clinical data to inform decision-making in drug discovery, development and commercialization. Biosimulation is a critical component of MIDD that uses computer-aided mathematical simulation of biological processes and systems to understand the action of a drug in a human body or in a population of humans MIDD and biosimulation can increase the probability of success in bringing a new drug to market, while also decreasing development costs. We accomplished this through our software platform, which includes four key pillars: our Simcyp-TBPK software; Phoenix PK/PD software; Pinnacle21, which is a data standardization tool; and Chemaxon, our most recent acquisition, which brings chemical property insights to the discovery phase of drug development.

在 Certara，我們正在為全球生物製藥行業實現模型資訊藥物開發或 MIDD。MIDD 是一種使用源自臨床前和臨床數據的生物和統計模型為藥物發現、開發和商業化決策提供資訊的方法。生物模擬是 MIDD 的關鍵組成部分，它使用電腦輔助數學模擬生物過程和系統來了解藥物在人體或人類群體中的作用。 MIDD 和生物模擬可以增加新藥成功上市的機率，同時降低開發成本。我們透過我們的軟體平台實現了這一目標，該平台包括四個關鍵支柱：我們的 Simcyp-TBPK 軟體； Phoenix PK/PD軟體； Pinnacle21，這是一個數據標準化工具；以及我們最近收購的 Chemaxon，它為藥物開發的發現階段帶來了化學特性洞察。

In 2024, our customers continue to exhibit cautious spending behavior as they grapple with funding constraints Medicare drug price negotiations and geopolitical uncertainty. Our software business continued to grow through the challenging environment, while demand for our services was less predictable, particularly in our regulatory services. Decision-making timelines were and continue to be elongated due to internal discussions at customers. During the fourth quarter, our team executed well despite end market uncertainties, driving software and services bookings that were slightly ahead of our expectations. While we are pleased with our performance. We did not see any change in customer sentiment that suggests to us that our end markets are materially different heading into 2025.

2024 年，我們的客戶將繼續表現出謹慎的消費行為，因為他們必須應對資金限制、醫療保險藥品價格談判和地緣政治不確定性。我們的軟體業務在充滿挑戰的環境中持續成長，但對我們服務的需求卻不太可預測，尤其是在監管服務方面。由於客戶內部討論，決策時間延長，並且持續延長。在第四季度，儘管終端市場存在不確定性，但我們的團隊表現良好，推動軟體和服務預訂量略高於我們的預期。雖然我們對自己的表現感到滿意。我們沒有看到客戶情緒有任何變化，這表明我們的終端市場在 2025 年將發生重大變化。

As such, our guidance ranges assume that 2025 will be a similar year to 2024 for clinical R&D spending. Now I'd like to take some time to discuss our progress over the past year. and our vision for Certara in 2025. Throughout 2024, we took steps to enhance Certara strategic position as a preferred partner to the global biopharmaceutical industry. In software, we made investments in our R&D infrastructure with three goals in mind: to expand the integration of generative artificial intelligence into existing products; to accelerate the development of new products and product updates; and to begin the process of integrating Certara software into a unified platform.

因此，我們的指導範圍假設 2025 年的臨床研發支出將與 2024 年相似。現在我想花點時間討論一下我們過去一年的進展。以及我們對 2025 年 Certara 的願景。在整個 2024 年，我們採取措施提升 Certara 作為全球生物製藥產業首選合作夥伴的戰略地位。在軟體方面，我們對研發基礎設施進行了投資，目標是三個：擴大生成人工智慧與現有產品的整合；加速新產品的開發和產品的更新；並開始將 Certara 軟體整合到統一平台的過程。

Another focus area was our commercial team, where we added senior-level talent such as key account managers as we seek to strengthen strategic relationships among our top customers. One successful example from this investment was the launch of our coauthor regulatory writing product. We began marketing coauthor during the second quarter of 2024 and received positive initial feedback from early users. Our regulatory services team also uses coauthor to increase efficiency in their regulatory writing projects. We attribute the successful launch to our product development team and a calibrated sales and marketing effort.

另一個重點領域是我們的商業團隊，我們增加了大客戶經理等高階人才，以尋求加強與頂級客戶之間的策略關係。此次投資的一個成功案例是我們推出的合著者監管寫作產品。我們在 2024 年第二季開始行銷合作者，並收到了早期用戶的正面初步回饋。我們的監管服務團隊也使用合著者來提高其監管寫作專案的效率。我們將成功發布歸功於我們的產品開發團隊以及精心策劃的銷售和行銷工作。

Beyond internal investments, we focused on successfully integrating Prometic and Applied Biomass or ABM, into the organization, and we completed the acquisition of Chemaxon in October of 2024. During the first year under the Satara umbrella, ABM's team seamlessly integrated with the Certara QSP team, leading to a successful 2024, which included a project that was published in Nature Cancer. For Medic fraud complementary software products that were quickly combined with our Pinnacle 21 offering, receiving positive user feedback and bringing additional efficiencies to our customers.

除了內部投資之外，我們還專注於將 Prometic 和 Applied Biomass 或 ABM 成功整合到組織中，並於 2024 年 10 月完成了對 Chemaxon 的收購。在 Satara 旗下的第一年，ABM 團隊與 Certara QSP 團隊無縫整合，並於 2024 年取得成功，其中包括在《自然癌症》雜誌上發表的一個專案。對於醫療詐欺補充軟體產品，它們迅速與我們的 Pinnacle 21 產品相結合，獲得了積極的用戶回饋，並為我們的客戶帶來了額外的效率。

And more recently, Chemaxon has allowed us to enter the discovery biosimulation market at scale. Chemaxon brings a highly synergistic suite of software products, which can be leveraged alongside existing Certara software to bring cutting-edge insights to drug discovery, candidate selection and lead optimization. We began to see the impact of these investments throughout the year. as we expanded our customer base to over 2,400 life sciences companies as of December 31. Among these customers, we had 431 customers with an annual contract value of more than $100,000.

最近，Chemaxon 讓我們能夠大規模進入發現生物模擬市場。Chemaxon 帶來了一套高度協同的軟體產品，可與現有的 Certara 軟體結合使用，為藥物發現、候選藥物選擇和先導化合物優化帶來前沿見解。我們開始看到這些投資在全年產生的影響。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的客戶群已擴大至 2,400 多家生命科學公司。在這些客戶中，我們有 431 位客戶的年度合約價值超過 100,000 美元。

And representing 11% growth over 2023. We also had 67 customers with an annual contract value of more than $1 million, which grew versus 63 customers in 2023.

比 2023 年增長 11%。我們還擁有 67 位客戶，其年度合約價值超過 100 萬美元，而 2023 年則有 63 位客戶。

Our growth strategy is working. Despite a turbulent market backdrop, biopharma companies around the world are expanding their use of biosimulation, which can be attributed to the investments and strategic initiatives at Certara. Looking ahead to 2025, there is even more that can be done in the best position Satara for future growth. This year, we plan to make further investments in software to accelerate our product development initiatives. Our main priority will be the development of software products for the discovery and lead optimization phase, leveraging Chemaxon's existing capabilities alongside Certara technologies and artificial intelligence.

我們的成長策略正在發揮作用。儘管市場背景動盪，世界各地的生物製藥公司仍在擴大生物模擬的使用，這歸功於 Certara 的投資和策略性舉措。展望 2025 年，Satara 還可以做更多的事情，為未來的成長做好最佳準備。今年，我們計劃在軟體方面進一步投資，以加速我們的產品開發計劃。我們的首要任務是開發用於發現和先導優化階段的軟體產品，利用 Chemaxon 現有的能力以及 Certara 技術和人工智慧。

Drug discovery represents a large addressable market for MIDD, whereas Certara products have historically been focused on the clinical stages. We believe that with our technology we can develop products that will bring predictive analysis and insights into the discovery phase that will be unique and differentiated with the potential to significantly impact the success rate and associated cost of drug development. In addition to Discovery, we will continue to invest in the cutting-edge areas of biosimulation software, including new models and features, QST, and [add me] property prediction.

藥物研發對於 MIDD 來說是一個巨大的潛在市場，而 Certara 產品則歷來專注於臨床階段。我們相信，憑藉我們的技術，我們可以開發出將預測分析和見解帶入發現階段的產品，這些產品將是獨一無二的、差異化的，並有可能顯著影響藥物開發的成功率和相關成本。除了 Discovery，我們也將繼續投資生物模擬軟體的前沿領域，包括新模型和功能、QST 和 [add me] 屬性預測。

Outside of new product development, we will continue to focus on building an integrated software platform by elevating new products to the Certara Cloud. We are confident in our ability to execute our R&D and commercial goals because of our tremendous team. In 2024, we continue to prioritize hiring leading software developers, scientific subject manner experts and senior commercial talent. We ended the year with over 1,500 employees, including more than 400 with advanced degrees. An example of our team's expertise was the recent inclusion of several extreme colleagues in Stanford Elsevier's top 2% scientist ranking list. 12 members of our team were named the list in 2024, which includes the top and most cited researchers globally.

除了新產品開發之外，我們還將繼續致力於透過將新產品提升到 Certara Cloud 來建立整合軟體平台。由於我們擁有優秀的團隊，我們對實現研發和商業目標的能力充滿信心。2024年，我們繼續優先招募領先的軟體開發人員、科學學科方式專家和高階商業人才。截至今年年底，我們擁有超過 1,500 名員工，其中包括 400 多名擁有高級學位的員工。我們團隊專業知識的一個例子是，最近幾位極端同事被列入史丹佛愛思唯爾前 2% 科學家排名名單。我們團隊的 12 名成員於 2024 年入選名單，其中包括全球頂尖和被引用次數最多的研究人員。

Certara's researchers contributed to over 100 publications during the past year. showcasing the impact of biosimulation strategies and execution on drug development and outlining the different application of technologies to streamline drug submission and approval processes. I am proud of the accomplishments of our team and I'm looking forward to the continued success in 2025.

過去一年，Certara 的研究人員發表了 100 多篇出版品。展示生物模擬策略和執行對藥物開發的影響，並概述簡化藥物提交和批准流程的不同技術應用。我為我們團隊的成就感到自豪，並期待 2025 年繼續取得成功。

Before wrapping up, I wanted to provide a brief update on the strategic review of our regulatory writing business. Our internal review process has progressed nicely, and we are continuing to evaluate potential outcomes and their impact on our go-forward strategy. We have not made any decision as will be not making any further comments regarding the review on this call. We expect to reach a decision in the near term, and we'll plan to share additional details as soon as we have them.

在結束之前，我想簡要介紹一下我們監管寫作業務的策略審查情況。我們的內部審查過程進展順利，我們正在繼續評估潛在結果及其對我們未來策略的影響。我們尚未做出任何決定，也不會對此次電話會議的審查發表任何進一步的評論。我們預計將在短期內做出決定，並計劃在獲得更多細節後立即分享。

In summary, we had solid commercial execution across software and services, driving successful performance in the fourth quarter. Progress Certara has made over the past year was very important as we leverage organic investment and strategic transactions to enhance our competitive positioning. While our end markets remain subdued on a historical basis, the adoption of biosimulation remains strong, which has been exemplified by the performance of our software business and the increasing number of customers using our technology at scale.

總而言之，我們在軟體和服務方面擁有穩健的商業執行力，推動了第四季的成功業績。Certara 在過去一年中的進步非常重要，因為我們利用有機投資和策略交易來增強我們的競爭地位。雖然我們的終端市場在歷史上一直處於低迷狀態，但生物模擬的採用仍然強勁，這從我們的軟體業務的表現和越來越多的大規模使用我們技術的客戶中可以看出。

In 2025, we will continue to invest in software to expand the breadth of our offering. I'm excited to continue to advance biosimulation forward, unlocking greater commercial opportunities and leaving us well positioned for growth in 2025 and beyond. With that, I will hand things over to John to discuss our financial results in more detail.

2025 年，我們將繼續投資軟體，以擴大我們的產品範圍。我很高興能夠繼續推動生物模擬的發展，釋放更大的商業機會，並讓我們為 2025 年及以後的成長做好準備。說完這些，我會把事情交給約翰來更詳細地討論我們的財務結果。

Thank you, William. Hello, everyone. Before I walk through our financial results and 2025 guidance, I wanted to highlight slide 12 of our accompanying presentation, which provides color on our organic revenue performance in the fourth quarter and for the full year. Total revenue for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $100.4 million, representing year-over-year growth of 14% on a reported basis and on a constant currency basis. For the full year of 2024, total revenue was $385.1 million, representing year-over-year growth of 9% on a reported basis and 8% on a constant currency basis.

謝謝你，威廉。大家好。在介紹我們的財務表現和 2025 年指引之前，我想重點介紹一下我們隨附簡報的第 12 張投影片，該投影片為我們第四季和全年的有機收入表現提供了參考。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的三個月的總收入為 1.004 億美元，按報告基礎和固定匯率計算同比增長 14%。2024 年全年總營收為 3.851 億美元，以報告基礎計算年增 9%，以固定匯率計算成長 8%。

Total bookings in the fourth quarter were $144.5 million, which increased 22% from the prior year period on a reported basis. Trailing 12-month bookings were $445.3 million, increasing 11% on a reported basis. Software revenue was $42.3 million in the fourth quarter, which increased 26% over the prior year period on a reported basis and on a constant currency basis. Organic growth in the quarter was driven by biosimulation software and Pinnacle 21. Additionally, Chemaxon contributed $6.6 million to our reported revenue, which came in ahead of our expectations.

第四季總預訂額為 1.445 億美元，據報告比去年同期成長 22%。過去 12 個月的預訂金額為 4.453 億美元，年增 11%。第四季軟體營收為 4,230 萬美元，按報告基礎和固定匯率計算比去年同期成長 26%。本季的有機成長得益於生物模擬軟體和 Pinnacle 21。此外，Chemaxon 為我們報告的收入貢獻了 660 萬美元，超出了我們的預期。

Ratable and subscription revenue accounted for 63% of fourth quarter software revenues, down from 68% in the prior year period.

按比例分配和訂閱收入佔第四季軟體收入的 63%，低於去年同期的 68%。

The decrease in subscription mix was driven by Chemaxon, which has a higher mix of term license software. For the full year, software revenue was $155.7 million, which grew 18% on a reported basis and on a constant currency basis. Ratable and subscription revenue accounted for 65% of full year software revenues, up from 62% in 2023. Software bookings were $59.7 million in the fourth quarter, which increased 38% from the prior year period. Fourth quarter bookings include $11 million of Chemaxon booking.

訂閱組合的下降是由 Chemaxon 推動的，該公司擁有較高的定期許可軟體組合。全年軟體收入為 1.557 億美元，按報告基礎和固定匯率計算成長 18%。按比例分配和訂閱收入佔全年軟體收入的 65%，高於 2023 年的 62%。第四季軟體訂單金額為 5,970 萬美元，比去年同期成長 38%。第四季的預訂量包括 1,100 萬美元的 Chemaxon 預訂量。

Trailing 12-month software bookings were $169.7 million, up 24% year-over-year. The software net retention rate was 106% in the quarter and 108% on the year, which is consistent with our long-term growth profile. Looking at our software bookings performance by Tier we saw a very strong performance in both Tier 1 and Tier 3 customers in the fourth quarter and throughout the full year, driven by continued adoption of our software. Now turning to services revenue, which was $58.1 million in the fourth quarter, up 7% versus the prior year period on a reported basis and on a constant currency basis. Our services business has continued to recover following a period of cautious spending among our customers.

過去 12 個月的軟體訂單金額為 1.697 億美元，較去年同期成長 24%。本季軟體淨留存率為 106%，去年同期為 108%，這與我們的長期成長前景一致。從各層級的軟體預訂表現來看，我們發現在第四季度和全年，一級和三級客戶的表現都非常強勁，這得益於我們軟體的持續採用。現在談服務收入，第四季服務收入為 5,810 萬美元，按報告基礎和固定匯率計算比去年同期成長 7%。在客戶經過一段時間的謹慎支出後，我們的服務業務持續復甦。

For the full year, services revenue was $229.5 million, which grew 3% on a reported basis and on a constant currency basis. Services revenue in 2024 includes regulatory writing revenue of $54.7 million, which compares to $60.5 million in 2023. Technology-driven services bookings in the fourth quarter were $84.8 million, which increased 12% from the prior year period. Trailing 12-month services bookings were $275.6 million, up 4% as compared to the prior year. In the quarter, we saw double-digit growth in biosimulation services bookings with growth across all 3 of our biopharma customer tiers.

全年服務收入為 2.295 億美元，按報告基礎和固定匯率計算成長 3%。2024 年的服務收入包括 5,470 萬美元的監管寫作收入，而 2023 年為 6,050 萬美元。第四季技術驅動服務訂單金額為 8,480 萬美元，比去年同期成長 12%。過去 12 個月的服務預訂額為 2.756 億美元，比上年增長 4%。本季度，我們的生物模擬服務預訂量實現了兩位數成長，我們所有三個生物製藥客戶層級均實現了成長。

Biosimulation services bookings were strongest in Tier 3 growing in the low 20. For the full year, biosimulation services bookings grew 13% and Regulatory writing bookings returned to growth in the fourth quarter, up mid-single digits versus the prior year period, driven by solid bookings in Tier 1 that were moderately offset by declines in Tier 2 and 3. For the full year, regulatory bookings declined in the double digits. Total cost of revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $38.3 million, an increase from $34.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to higher employee-related costs and an increase in capitalized software amortization.

生物模擬服務預訂量在三級市場中最為強勁，成長率在 20% 以下。全年而言，生物模擬服務訂單量增長了 13%，監管文書撰寫訂單量在第四季度恢復增長，較去年同期增長了中等個位數，這得益於一級市場訂單量的穩健增長，但二級和三級市場的訂單量下降在一定程度上抵消了這一增長。全年來看，監管預訂量下降了兩位數。2024 年第四季的總收入成本為 3,830 萬美元，高於 2023 年第四季的 3,410 萬美元，主要原因是員工相關成本增加以及資本化軟體攤提增加。

Total operating expenses for the fourth quarter of 2024 were $56.1 million, a decrease from $62.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 primarily due to a $12.8 million decrease in the change in the fair value of a contingent consideration versus the prior year period. which was offset by higher sales and marketing expense and intangible asset amortization. In 2024, we made investments in research and development to accelerate and expand software development efforts, where we have seen good initial success. As Bill discussed, we plan to continue investing in R&D in 2025 to drive new product development and further integrate our software.

2024 年第四季的總營運費用為 5,610 萬美元，較 2023 年第四季的 6,240 萬美元有所下降，主要原因是或有對價的公允價值變動與去年同期相比減少了 1,280 萬美元。但被更高的銷售和行銷費用以及無形資產攤銷所抵銷。2024年，我們在研發方面進行了投資，以加速和擴大軟體開發力度，並取得了良好的初步成功。正如比爾所討論的，我們計劃在 2025 年繼續投資研發，以推動新產品開發並進一步整合我們的軟體。

We expect growth in G&A and sales and marketing to moderate in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $33.5 million, an increase from $29.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter was 33%, in line with our expectations. As I discussed last quarter, we reprioritized some of our investments in sales and marketing to better align with our end markets. Alongside cost actions taken earlier in 2024, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $122.0 million for the full year, representing a margin of 32%.

我們預計 2025 年 G&A 及銷售及行銷的成長將會放緩。2024 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,350 萬美元，高於 2023 年第四季的 2,960 萬美元。本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 33%，符合我們的預期。正如我在上個季度所討論的那樣，我們重新調整了部分銷售和行銷投資的優先順序，以更好地適應我們的終端市場。加上 2024 年初採取的成本控制措施，我們全年調整後的 EBITDA 達到 1.22 億美元，利潤率為 32%。

Wrapping up the income statement. Net income for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $6.6 million compared to a net loss of $12.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

總結損益表。2024 年第四季淨收入為 660 萬美元，而 2023 年第四季淨虧損為 1,250 萬美元。

Reported adjusted net income in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $24.7 million compared to $14.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2023. Diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $0.04 compared to a loss of $0.08 per share in the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $0.15 compared to $0.09 for the fourth quarter of last year. Moving to the balance sheet. We finished the quarter with $179.2 million in cash and cash equivalents.

2024 年第四季報告的調整後淨收入為 2,470 萬美元，而 2023 年第四季為 1,430 萬美元。2024 年第四季每股攤薄收益為 0.04 美元，而 2023 年第四季每股虧損為 0.08 美元。2024 年第四季調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.15 美元，去年第四季為 0.09 美元。轉到資產負債表。本季末，我們的現金和現金等價物為 1.792 億美元。

As of December 31, 2024, we had $295.4 million of outstanding borrowings on our term loan and full availability under our revolving credit facility. Now I would like to walk you through our guidance methodology for full year 2025.

截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們的定期貸款未償還借款為 2.954 億美元，且我們的循環信貸額度已全部可用。現在，我想向大家介紹我們 2025 年全年的指導方法。

As Bill discussed previously, our guidance assumes that end markets in 2025 will be similar to what we observed in 2024. We are monitoring several developments in our markets, which have factored into our 2025 guidance. As we have discussed previously, throughout 2024, some of our Tier 3 customers were slower to deploy capital than we anticipated. Which widened the gap between when a customer received funding and when our commercial team was able to close a deal. Among our Tier 1 customers, we saw varying levels of spending activity based on each company's relative exposure to the IRA and impending patent cliffs, which has resulted in modest impact for both our software and services businesses.

正如比爾之前所討論的，我們的指導假設 2025 年的終端市場將與我們在 2024 年觀察到的類似。我們正在監測市場中的多項發展，這些發展已納入我們的 2025 年指引。正如我們之前所討論的，在整個 2024 年，我們的一些三級客戶的資本部署速度比我們預期的要慢。這擴大了客戶收到資金和我們的商業團隊達成交易之間的差距。在我們的一級客戶中，我們看到了不同程度的支出活動，這取決於每家公司對 IRA 和即將到來的專利懸崖的相對敞口，這對我們的軟體和服務業務產生了適度的影響。

Our guidance assumes these trends will continue through the end of this year. Factoring in these assumptions, we expect total revenue in the range of $415 million to $425 million, representing growth of 8% to 10% compared with 2024. We expect Chemaxon to contribute revenue of $23 million to $25 million. We expect adjusted EBITDA margins between 30% to 32%. Similar to our guidance last year, we anticipate a higher EBITDA margin at the lower end of our revenue guidance and a lower EBITDA margin at the higher end of our revenue guidance.

我們的指導假設這些趨勢將持續到今年年底。考慮到這些假設，我們預計總收入將在 4.15 億美元至 4.25 億美元之間，與 2024 年相比成長 8% 至 10%。我們預計 Chemaxon 將貢獻 2,300 萬至 2,500 萬美元的收入。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在 30% 至 32% 之間。與我們去年的指導類似，我們預計收入指導下限的 EBITDA 利潤率會較高，而收入指導上限的 EBITDA 利潤率會較低。

This will be driven by discretionary investments in research and development, which will be managed based on our commercial performance as the year progresses. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $0.42 to $0.46 per share, fully diluted shares in the range of $162 million to $164 million and a tax rate in the range of 25% to 30%. I will now turn the call back over to our CEO, William Feehery for closing remarks.

這將由對研發的自由裁量投資推動，並將根據我們今年的商業表現進行管理。我們預計調整後的每股盈餘在 0.42 美元至 0.46 美元之間，完全稀釋後的每股盈餘將在 1.62 億美元至 1.64 億美元之間，稅率在 25% 至 30% 之間。現在我將把電話轉回給我們的執行長威廉費赫里 (William Feehery) 作結束語。

Thank you, John. To summarize our message today, we are pleased with the many exciting developments at Certara in the fourth quarter and remain focused on executing our growth and profitability goals in 2025. There's a lot to be excited about at Certara as we advance biosimulation with our innovative technologies. Operator, can you please open the line for questions?

謝謝你，約翰。總結我們今天的訊息，我們對 Certara 在第四季度取得的許多令人興奮的發展感到高興，並將繼續專注於實現 2025 年的成長和獲利目標。隨著我們利用創新技術推動生物模擬的發展，Certara 有許多令人興奮的事情。接線員，您能開通熱線來回答問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Garro, Stephens Corp.

（操作員指示） Jeff Garro，Stephens Corp.

Yes. Maybe start off on the 2025 revenue guidance? And is the kind of typical question of what gets you to the low end or the high end of the range? And maybe further just help us understand the kind of balanced end market view up against a pretty strong Q4 bookings result on several fronts.

是的。也許從 2025 年的收入指導開始？典型的問題是，什麼能讓你達到該範圍的低端或高端？或許這能進一步幫助我們了解終端市場在多個方面都取得相當強勁的第四季度預訂業績的情況下的平衡觀點。

Jeff, it's John. I'd start with the last part first. I mean, we were pleased with the fourth quarter results, and we attribute the performance to execution by the team. So as you know, we've been building the commercial team through the year, and we were happy to see the execution in Q4 in the face of what remains pretty challenging end markets. So coming back to your question on what brings you what would bring us to the high end or the low end.

傑夫，我是約翰。我將首先從最後一部分開始。我的意思是，我們對第四季的業績感到滿意，我們將這項業績歸功於團隊的執行力。如您所知，我們全年都在組建商業團隊，面對仍然頗具挑戰性的終端市場，我們很高興看到第四季度的執行情況。所以回到你的問題，什麼會帶給我們高端或低端。

That also comes back to the end markets, too. I think when we look at our Tier 1 customers, then we continue to see spending patterns that are impacted by layoffs at those firms, portfolio prioritization as well as them just looking at and taking longer on decision-making for us to bring in new bookings.

這也與終端市場有關。我認為，當我們審視我們的一級客戶時，我們會繼續看到支出模式受到這些公司裁員、投資組合優先排序以及他們只是關注並花費更長時間做出決策來為我們帶來新訂單的影響。

So that's a dynamic that we've seen with Tier 1s in 2024. You saw that in the results in Q4 despite the execution, and we expect that dynamic to continue in 2025. And then when you look at Tier 3. Similarly, it's -- we did see some progress last year on the funding environment for biotech, but we are finding that the pull-through or the decision-making once the biotechs are funded, has taken longer than what we've seen in the past. And so when you take all that together, then I think if we see some improvement in those end markets, that would obviously push us or the higher end of the range.

這就是我們在 2024 年一級市場中看到的動態。儘管執行情況不佳，但您還是從第四季度的結果中看到了這一點，我們預計這種動態將在 2025 年繼續下去。然後當你查看第 3 層。同樣，去年我們確實看到生物技術的融資環境取得了一些進展，但我們發現，生物技術獲得資金後的執行或決策過程比過去還要長。所以，當你把所有這些因素綜合起來時，我認為如果我們看到這些終端市場有所改善，這顯然會推動我們達到更高的水平。

And if we saw some deterioration from where we were in 2024, then we'd be at the lower end.

如果我們看到 2024 年的情況惡化，那麼我們就會處於較低水準。

Understood. That helps. And maybe just to hit on the EBITDA side of the guidance to profitability side. Maybe you could give us a little more commentary on what incremental R&D investments you're looking to make in 2025 and also help us further understand the investments in Chemaxon, whether that's related to building out the product more or just scalability or really a purely technology integration with your existing assets in the discovery space.

明白了。這有幫助。或許只是為了觸及獲利方面的指導中的 EBITDA 面向。也許您可以給我們多一點評論，說明您希望在 2025 年進行哪些增量研發投資，並幫助我們進一步了解對 Chemaxon 的投資，無論是與進一步構建產品有關，還是僅僅是可擴展性，還是純粹與您在發現領域的現有資產進行技術整合。

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. So Yes, we're calling for the margin to be between 30% to 32% as you had said and observed. That does represent some additional investment. And we've been talking about the investment necessary to continue the strong momentum we've seen with the software portfolio and as well as the investment in AI.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。是的，正如您所說和觀察到的，我們要求利潤率在 30% 到 32% 之間。這確實代表了一些額外的投資。我們一直在談論必要的投資，以延續我們在軟體產品組合和人工智慧投資方面所看到的強勁勢頭。

And so what you're seeing in the margin is us continuing to make that investment and making it in 2025. The other piece of it, I'd say, too, but it is a modest component is we brought on Chemaxon. We were thrilled to bring on the Chemaxon business starting in Q4 and we're going to be working on integration of Chemaxon throughout the year, and we expect exiting the year having Chemaxon at our margins. But obviously, this is just the beginning in Q4 and now into Q1 of '25.

因此，您在利潤中看到的是我們將繼續進行這項投資，並在 2025 年實現這一目標。我想說的是，另一部分，但只是一個很小的部分，是我們引入了 Chemaxon。我們很高興從第四季度開始引入 Chemaxon 業務，我們將全年致力於 Chemaxon 的整合，我們預計今年年底 Chemaxon 將達到我們的利潤率。但顯然，這只是第四季的開始，現在已經進入25年第一季。

Michael Cherny, Leerink Partners.

Michael Cherny，Leerink Partners。

Maybe if I can just talk a little bit about the trajectory in the quarter and the outlook. I fully understand the dynamics you put in place relative to the tough market. I think we all see it the very driven data points, but the bookings came through strong in the quarter. Can you give a little bit more color, Bill, about what you're seeing from a wallet share perspective? You highlighted some of the large deals.

也許我可以稍微談談本季的發展軌跡和前景。我完全理解您針對嚴峻的市場所採取的措施。我想我們都看到了非常有驅動力的數據點，但本季的預訂量非常強勁。比爾，你能否從錢包份額的角度更詳細地介紹一下你所看到的情況？您強調了一些大型交易。

But as you think through both the formats in the quarter and what's underlying guidance, how much of that do you think is you being able to garner a bigger piece of your customers' wallet?

但是，當您考慮本季的形式和基本指導時，您認為其中有多少能夠從客戶手中奪取更大的份額？

Yes. Thanks for the question. I think there's an element of that in there. We have invested over the last couple of years in several new products and a whole lot of of updates to products, which have resulted in, I think, very positive feedback from customers in terms of the bookings and additional sales that we got from them. And I think that's one of the reasons why we're emphasizing as we go into 2025, continue to invest, particularly in the software suite there's tremendous opportunity for us in front of us around what we're doing in AI as well as continuing to invest in our core products like Simcyp and in Pinnacle 21, which the investments we're making there are kind of taking us into new parts of pharma where maybe there were few models available or -- and we're kind of opening them up as addressable to the company right now.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我認為其中有這樣的因素。過去幾年，我們投資了多種新產品，並對產品進行了大量更新，我認為，這些產品在訂單量和額外銷售方面獲得了客戶的非常積極的回饋。我認為這就是我們強調在進入 2025 年時繼續投資的原因之一，特別是在軟體套件方面，我們在人工智慧領域所做的工作以及繼續投資於我們的核心產品（如 Simcyp 和 Pinnacle 21）方面面臨著巨大的機遇，我們在那裡進行的投資有點將我們帶入製藥業的新領域，這些領域可能很少有可用的模型。

Like John said, I think a chunk of fourth quarter was good execution by the team, but it wasn't just in the fourth quarter. I mean, some of this had to do with, I think, some careful investment in the products themselves that have led to taking a little bit more share like you're talking about.

就像約翰所說的那樣，我認為球隊在第四節的大部分時間裡表現良好，但這不僅僅是在第四節。我的意思是，我認為，其中一些與對產品本身的一些謹慎投資有關，這些投資導致了我們獲得了更多的份額，就像你所說的那樣。

And then I guess another kind of big picture question, but an important one. As you think through the incoming new administration, obviously, we're all waiting to see where the confirmations lie. But what do you see at least based on public commentary, people's backgrounds as the opportunities and risks relative to the new administration coming in?

然後我想這又是一個宏觀問題，但卻是一個重要的問題。當你思考即將上任的新政府時，顯然我們都在等待確認結果。但是，至少根據公眾評論和人們的背景，您認為新政府上台會帶來哪些機會和風險？

Yes. I was figuring we would get questions like that since everybody is getting them. I think right now, we are watching carefully. There are some potential opportunities as well as some potential risks in what's being discussed. But I think to be fair, you'd have to say that it's all pretty new, and we're just kind of watching to see how things settle out before we make any pronouncements or plans are out that.

是的。我想我們也會收到這樣的問題，因為每個人都會問這樣的問題。我認為現在我們正在密切關注。正在討論的內容既有一些潛在的機遇，也有一些潛在的風險。但我認為公平地說，你必須說這一切都是相當新的，我們只是在觀察事情如何解決，然後再做出任何聲明或計劃。

Max Smock, William Blair.

馬克斯史莫克、威廉布萊爾。

It's Christine Rains on for Max. So we noticed the tick down in your software net retention rate to the lowest we've seen in a little while. Hoping you can speak to the drivers behind this? And if there has been any change in your win rate, just wondering if the downtick is a reflection of choppy large pharma demand. And more broadly, if you can comment on the overall growth in leading demand indicators strength delta between large pharma and small biotech in 4Q and expectation for both cohorts in 2025.

克里斯汀·雷恩斯 (Christine Rains) 代替馬克斯 (Max)。因此，我們注意到您的軟體淨保留率下降到了我們一段時間以來的最低水準。希望您能和背後的推動者談談嗎？如果您的勝率有任何變化，我只是想知道這種下降是否反映了大型製藥公司需求的波動。更廣泛地說，如果您可以評論一下第四季度大型製藥公司和小型生物技術公司之間的領先需求指標強度差異的總體增長以及對 2025 年這兩類公司的預期。

Yes. Thanks for your question. So the net retention rate for 4Q was $106 million. The full year was $108 million. So it was it was lower in Q4 than on a full year basis.

是的。謝謝你的提問。因此第四季的淨留存率為 1.06 億美元。全年為1.08億美元。因此，第四季的銷售額低於全年銷售額。

We do, to your point, we do attribute that to Tier 1 customer spending patterns. So when -- when I was describing before on the guidance, and sort of the upper end or the lower end of the guidance. And those customer spending patterns, slower decision-making, portfolio reprioritization, headcount reductions of all, to some extent, have impacted renewals in our Phoenix product and then, to a lesser extent, in Pinnacle. So there is a dynamic there.

正如您所說，我們確實將其歸因於一級客戶的消費模式。所以當我之前描述指導時，以及指導的上限或下限。這些客戶消費模式、較慢的決策、投資組合重新排序、員工人數削減等都在一定程度上影響了我們 Phoenix 產品的續約，並在較小程度上影響了 Pinnacle 產品的續約。因此，那裡存在著一種動態。

Alternatively, on the Tier 3s, then we've seen strong performance on both software and services -- biosim services, specifically on the Tier 3 customers.

或者，在 Tier 3 上，我們看到軟體和服務（生物辨識服務）都表現強勁，特別是針對 Tier 3 客戶。

That was really helpful commentary. Just digging a little bit more into 2025 and organic growth expectations. So in the midpoint, if I think about $24 million in total from Chemaxon contribution this year, about three-fourths of which is inorganic. That implies $18 million in inorganic revenue this year. The midpoint of your guide then implies about like 4.5% organic growth in 2025 versus around 2% in 2024.

這確實是很有幫助的評論。只需進一步深入研究 2025 年和有機成長預期。因此，從中期來看，如果我認為今年 Chemaxon 的捐款總額約為 2,400 萬美元，其中約四分之三是無機資金。這意味著今年的無機收入為 1800 萬美元。那麼，您的指南的中點意味著 2025 年的有機成長率約為 4.5%，而 2024 年的有機成長率約為 2%。

First, just wondering if this is the right way to think about organic growth this year. And you mentioned that you're expecting the environment to be the same this year versus last year. So how we should think about drivers behind the delta of around 2% in organic growth this year versus the midpoint or guide calling for about 4% to 5%.

首先，我只是想知道這是否是思考今年有機成長的正確方式。您提到，您預計今年的環境與去年相同。那麼，我們應該如何看待今年有機成長率約為 2% 的差異背後的驅動因素，而不是中間值或指導值 4% 至 5% 左右。

Yes. So I think to cut through it, the organic growth based on our guidance, so we said the guide was 8% to 10% reported growth. The organic underlying that would be 4% to 6%.

是的。因此，我認為要突破這一瓶頸，需要根據我們的指導來實現有機成長，所以我們說指導是報告成長率 8% 到 10%。有機基礎將達到 4% 至 6%。

Okay. Great. That's really helpful. And then so given the 4% to 6%, how do you think about the step up there and the drivers behind the step up in organic growth rate versus 2024, given your expectation for kind of a relatively stable demand environment.

好的。偉大的。這真的很有幫助。那麼，考慮到 4% 到 6% 的成長率，考慮到您對相對穩定的需求環境的預期，您如何看待這一成長以及與 2024 年相比有機成長率上升的驅動因素。

Right. I think one of the key drivers there is underlying our assumption within services, where we had a decline in regulatory in 2024, which we've laid out and embedded within our guide is a reg business that's flat to low single digits.

正確的。我認為其中一個關鍵驅動因素是我們對服務業的假設，即 2024 年監管力度將會減弱，這一點我們已經在指南中闡明並嵌入，即監管業務將持平至個位數低位。

David Windley, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的戴維溫德利 (David Windley)。

I wanted to follow on the Chemaxon questions. John, would it be possible to quantify the margin differential or alternatively kind of how much margin in the guidance how much margin drag from the Chemaxon inorganic ad? How should we think about that?

我想繼續關注 Chemaxon 的問題。約翰，是否可以量化利潤差異，或者指導中的利潤是多少，Chemaxon 無機廣告對利潤的拖累是多少？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Yes. So Dave, the way to think about that is we stepped down off of 2024 by about 100 basis points. Approximately half of that is related to Chemaxon, and the other half is related to incremental investments.

是的。所以戴夫，我們可以這樣想：我們將 2024 年的利率下調約 100 個基點。其中約一半與 Chemaxon 有關，另一半則與增量投資有關。

Okay. And then maybe more broadly on Chemaxon. What's the competitive landscape for Chemaxon on to the capabilities that it has in that discovery space? And how is that perhaps different from your competitive position in PB/PK and PK/PD?

好的。然後也許更廣泛地談論 Chemaxon。Chemaxon 在該探索領域的能力競爭格局如何？這與您在 PB/PK 和 PK/PD 的競爭地位有何不同？

Yes. Thanks, David. The discovery space is pretty fragmented. So Chemaxon has a suite of tools that cover both the design make test analyze cycle, and they also have a suite of chemical predictors and then they have some other tools that get into things like searching large databases for chemicals. So those are embedded across the industry.

是的。謝謝，大衛。發現空間相當分散。因此，Chemaxon 擁有一套涵蓋設計、製造、測試和分析週期的工具，還有一套化學預測器，還有一些其他工具可用於在大型資料庫中搜尋化學品。所以這些已經滲透到整個產業了。

And I guess they all have individual competitors, but there's not like a -- there's not like a second Chemaxon out there, really.

我想他們都有各自的競爭對手，但實際上並沒有第二個 Chemaxon。

Okay. And then if I broaden out a little bit, I think if we go back to even, say, Pinnacle '21, one of, I think, the underpinnings or the kind of acquisition cases for these acquisitions is how can you build a portfolio that has some kind of synergistic benefit in terms of helping the client to buy across your portfolio and, of course, your investment in cloud. but also in the case of Pinnacle 21 and maybe formatic, helping the client to better manage its own data to make using simulation and MIDD more approachable, better enable those kinds of capabilities, do you -- is it possible to kind of see that evolving? Do you see those benefits showing up as your interacting with clients and kind of essentially helping to pioneer their more intensive use of model-informed drug development?

好的。然後，如果我稍微擴大一點，我想如果我們回到 Pinnacle '21，我認為這些收購的基礎或收購案例之一是如何建立一個具有某種協同效益的投資組合，幫助客戶購買你的投資組合，當然還有你在雲端方面的投資。而且就 Pinnacle 21 和 formatic 而言，它可以幫助客戶更好地管理自己的數據，從而使使用模擬和 MIDD 更加容易，更好地實現這些功能，您是否有可能看到這種發展？您是否認為這些好處會在您與客戶互動時顯現出來，並本質上幫助他們更深入地使用模型資訊藥物開發？

Yes. That's a great question. We've been working on biosimulation, as you know, for a while, and we're known in the space, but we're known in smaller -- we've been known for a long time in smaller groups within pharma. So I think the plans and the news and the reality of creating an integrated platform where you can apply this across multiple stages drug development starting in discovery has drawn a lot of attention. Now we have still investment to make as we go forward to pull all of these tools together.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。如你所知，我們致力於生物模擬已經有一段時間了，我們在這個領域是知名的，但我們在較小的群體中也很知名——我們在製藥行業的小團體中早已知名。因此，我認為創建一個整合平台的計劃、新聞和現實已經吸引了很多關注，在這個平台上你可以將其應用於從發現開始的藥物開發的多個階段。現在我們仍然需要進行投資，以便將所有這些工具整合在一起。

But as you pointed out, we've made a pretty good start with Certara Cloud.

但正如您所指出的，我們在 Certara Cloud 上已經有了一個很好的開始。

And I think that's helping our discussions at more senior levels of pharma. And I think that's -- I mean that's based the plan as we intend to continue. So we've got great tools, but we want to take it from great tools to a great platform where you've integrated a whole process across the development of a molecule from start to finish. And I think if we -- as we accomplish that, we'll add a lot more value and we'll capture a lot more value.

我認為這有助於我們在製藥業更高層次上進行討論。我認為這是——我的意思是這是基於我們打算繼續的計劃。因此，我們擁有出色的工具，但我們希望將其從出色的工具轉變為出色的平台，從而整合從開始到結束的分子開發的整個過程。我認為，如果我們實現這一目標，我們將創造更多價值，並獲得更多價值。

Right. And maybe a last question for me that leverages that answer is, I think at this time last year, we were talking about investments in SG&A and R&D maybe talked about evolving to a cloud approach at that time, the first half was pressured more than the second half. I think some investors probably thought that the kind of pressure on margin was weathered in the second half of '24 might be a reasonable step-off point to think about your go-forward margin and kind of additional investment and additional margin pressure in '25 might come as some surprise. How should we think about as you're evolving toward platform and adding capabilities and things like that? What is the duration of the, what I might call, excess investment before you think you get there?

正確的。也許對我來說最後一個可以利用這個答案的問題是，我認為去年這個時候，我們正在談論對銷售、一般和行政費用以及研發的投資，也許當時談到了向雲端運算方法的發展，上半年的壓力比下半年更大。我認為一些投資者可能認為，24 年下半年承受的利潤壓力可能是一個合理的起點，可以考慮未來的利潤率和額外的投資，而 25 年的額外利潤壓力可能會讓人感到驚訝。當您向平台發展並增加功能等時，我們應該如何思考？在您認為實現目標之前，我所說的過度投資會持續多久？

So I think the way we think about this is that Satara is a quite profitable company, and we've demonstrated we can run at a high profit margin. But there is a significant opportunity for growth here, and there's a good opportunity to put some of those profits back into growing the software. And if we do that, I think we can -- our plan is to take the growth rate of the company up over the next few years. So it's hard to answer your question, looks like a decimal points of precision because some products are -- we've got a pipeline of price coming. We have several new things coming out this year.

所以我認為我們對此的看法是，Satara 是一家盈利能力相當強的公司，而且我們已經證明我們可以實現高利潤率。但這裡有一個巨大的成長機會，而且這是一個將部分利潤重新投入軟體發展的好機會。如果我們這樣做，我認為我們可以——我們的計劃是在未來幾年提高公司的成長率。所以很難回答你的問題，看起來像小數點的精度，因為有些產品是 - 我們有價格管道。我們今年推出了幾款新產品。

We have some that are kind of slated as we go into 2026. And then after we after 2026, we'll probably sit back and look around and see, hey, how that go? And did that lead us to other things we want to do or not, right? So I guess what I'm telling you is I've got a plan that runs out about 2 years right now. that's not a situation where I'm just going to pour money in for 2 years and hope to get it out.

我們有一些計劃在 2026 年實現。然後，到了 2026 年之後，我們可能會坐下來環顧四周，看看情況如何？這是否會引導我們去做其他我們想做或不想做的事情，對嗎？所以我想我要告訴你的是，我有一個大約兩年的計畫。這並不是說我只需要投入兩年的資金，然後就可以拿回成本。

I mean that's a pipeline of products starting basically now that there will be a regular cadence coming out of upgrades and new features, AI-enabled features, things like that in our existing products. So we're going to we're expecting to see revenues from them as we go along.

我的意思是，這是一個基本上從現在就開始的產品線，我們現有產品中的升級和新功能、人工智慧功能等將會定期推出。因此，我們期望在前進的過程中看到來自它們的收入。

(Operator Instructions) Constantine Davides, Citizens Securities.

（操作員指示） Constantine Davides，公民證券。

Thanks. Just John, one more kind of modeling follow-up. Is there anything from a quarterly cadence standpoint that you'd call out in terms of headwinds or tailwinds that we should be mindful of in 2025. I guess first, I'm thinking of Chemaxon, just if that steps down from the pretty strong fourth quarter into the first quarter the way software typically does. And I guess obviously, the ramp of margin for that asset throughout the year. But is there anything else that you think you'd like to highlight just in terms of quarterly progression?

謝謝。只是約翰，又一種建模後續行動。從季度節奏的角度來看，您是否認為 2025 年我們應該注意哪些不利因素或順風因素？我想首先，我想到的是 Chemaxon，就像軟體通常一樣，它從相當強勁的第四季度下滑到第一季。我想，顯然，該資產的利潤率全年都會上升。但是，就季度進展而言，您還有什麼需要強調的嗎？

I think -- I mean, you've seen us historically be more second half weighted when you think about first half, second half, and I would expect that continues to be the case this year as we see the typical seasonality that does play out for us in the fourth quarter. So in addition to what you said, Constantine, I just remember to think about the first half, second half balance too.

我認為——我的意思是，當你考慮上半年和下半年時，你會發現我們歷史上更加註重下半年，我預計今年這種情況將繼續下去，因為我們看到第四季度確實出現了典型的季節性因素。所以，康斯坦丁，除了你所說的之外，我只記得考慮上半場和下半場的平衡。

Great. And then just on the regulatory services uptick, and I apologize if I missed that, but can you just maybe expand a little bit on the rebound there? And I know you're kind of limited in what you can address with the process that's going on, but does that sort of uptick? I know it's only one quarter, but maybe change how you're thinking about moving forward with that.

偉大的。然後是關於監管服務的上升，如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但你能否稍微擴展一下那裡的反彈情況？我知道您在處理正在進行的流程時所能解決的問題有限，但是這種上升趨勢是否存在？我知道這只是一個季度，但也許會改變你對未來發展的看法。

Well, I'll start with the performance piece. So we were pleased to see that the regulatory business returned to growth in both bookings and in revenue in the fourth quarter. And obviously -- and a lot of that performance, as we said in the prepared remarks, too, is coming from the Tier 1 customers and then partially offset by some softness in Tier 2 and Tier 3. So I think what that tells us is, we still have good support from our large Tier 1 customers there. We saw the business return to growth.

好吧，我將從表演部分開始。因此，我們很高興地看到，監管業務在第四季度的預訂量和收入都恢復了成長。顯然，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，很大一部分業績來自一級客戶，而二級和三級客戶的疲軟則部分抵消了這一增長。所以我認為這告訴我們，我們仍然得到那裡大型一級客戶的良好支持。我們看到業務恢復成長。

And obviously, those bookings being a services business, those bookings are going to have an impact on revenue as we move into '25. So we were happy with that bounce back coming off of Q1, 2 and 3.

顯然，這些預訂是服務業務，隨著我們進入25年，這些預訂將對收入產生影響。因此，我們對第一、二、三季的反彈感到高興。

Andrew Moss, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯莫斯。

So, William, you've noted high expectations for CoAuthor in the year ahead and the potential to expand the offering. Can you provide any color on the CoAuthor traction and how large the opportunity might be to expand the current AI offering?

所以，威廉，你已經注意到人們對來年 CoAuthor 寄予厚望，並且有擴大產品範圍的潛力。您能否介紹一下 CoAuthor 的吸引力以及擴展當前 AI 產品的機會有多大？

That's a good question. So we have multiple paying customers, which is -- which I think we view that product as being very much on track after just a couple of months on the market. We have a pretty good pipeline as well. So I think what we're finding that from a competitive standpoint, we have a -- we've put together a solid product and seems to be meeting the need. The product itself will expand over time.

這是個好問題。因此，我們擁有多個付費客戶，我認為我們認為該產品在上市僅幾個月後就已步入正軌。我們也有相當不錯的管道。因此我認為，從競爭的角度來看，我們已經打造出一款可靠的產品，而且似乎能夠滿足需求。產品本身會隨著時間的推移而擴大。

We're -- there's a whole lot of regulatory documents out there. The first version addresses a piece of it, and obviously, like all software, you keep new versions coming along, which we're going to do this year as we add new features and new document types particular to it.

我們——那裡有大量的監管文件。第一個版本解決了其中的一部分問題，顯然，像所有軟體一樣，新版本也會不斷推出，今年我們將這樣做，因為我們將添加新功能和新文件類型。

So I think what we're looking at here is you can reduce the amount of time to create a new document by a lot, maybe north of 60% in terms of at least a first draft. You can't really take all the humans out of a loop. Obviously, people still have to read the read it and edit it, but that takes a lot of the upfront cost out of getting a regulatory document in place. The product itself does more than just writing, it's handling things like the data, the tables, the connectivity to other databases as well. So it has -- it's more than just kind of applying CoPilot or chatGPT to regulatory writing.

所以我認為我們在這裡看到的是，你可以大大減少創建新文件的時間，至少就初稿而言，可以減少 60% 以上。你不可能真正將所有人類從循環中解放出來。顯然，人們仍然需要閱讀並編輯它，但這會減少制定監管文件所需的大量前期成本。該產品本身不僅僅是寫入，它還處理數據、表格以及與其他資料庫的連接等。所以它不僅僅是將 CoPilot 或 chatGPT 應用於監管寫作。

As far as how far it can go, it's we have expectations, let's say, in the millions of dollars of revenue for this year. I won't get more specific than that about any one product, but it's a real product and it's going to be a significant revenue generator. Where it goes in the long run, it's always a little hard to tell because AI is moving so quickly, and this product is moving so quickly. So it's got a lot of opportunities as we take it forward after even where it is right now.

至於它能走多遠，我們預計今年的收入將達到數百萬美元。我不會對任何一款產品進行更具體的描述，但它是一款真正的產品，而且將成為重要的收入來源。從長遠來看，它的發展方向總是有點難以預測，因為人工智慧發展得太快了，而且這個產品的發展也太快了。因此，即使它處於目前的狀況，當我們繼續推進它時，它仍然有很多機會。

Kyle Crews, UBS.

瑞銀集團的凱爾克魯斯（Kyle Crews）。

I think you earlier said that you're expecting a low single digit to flat decline in regulatory services revenues this year. Could you maybe help us with the segment guidance. I believe that, that piece of information almost implies around a high single-digit growth rate organic for software business for the software business? And maybe if you could just provide more color on the organic growth guidance. for each business line?

我想您之前說過，您預計今年監管服務收入將出現低個位數至持平的下降。您能否幫助我們提供細分指導？我相信，這訊息幾乎暗示軟體業務的有機成長率將達到個位數左右？也許您可以提供更多關於有機增長指導的詳細資訊。針對每條業務線？

Yes, sure. Let me clarify first on regulatory. What I said for regulatory is that we expect the business in 2025 embedded in our guidance is flat to low single digits increase. But to come back to your question on sort of the component parts here, so we said the reported was 8% to 10% growth. I had mentioned earlier that the organic total company was 4% to 6% when you split that by software and services.

是的，當然。我首先要澄清一下監管問題。對於監管，我所說的是，我們預計 2025 年的業務將持平至低個位數成長。但回到你關於組成部分的問題，我們報告的成長率為 8% 到 10%。我之前提到過，如果按軟體和服務來劃分，公司整體有機收入佔比為 4% 到 6%。

then you could see services would be low single digits. So think of it as 2% to 4%. Software, including Chemaxon, would be 16% to 19% growth. But the organic and to your point, Kyle, the organic software growth would be in a range of 6% to 8%. So that is aligned with what you were saying earlier.

那你會看到服務業的成長率將處於個位數以下。所以可以認為是 2% 到 4%。包括 Chemaxon 在內的軟體將實現 16% 至 19% 的成長。但就你的觀點而言，凱爾，有機軟體成長率將在 6% 到 8% 之間。這與您之前所說的一致。

Great. And then maybe could you provide some color on your efforts to expand the Simcyp software outside of the core consortium to other customers?

偉大的。那麼，您能否介紹一下您將 Simcyp 軟體從核心聯盟擴展到其他客戶的努力？

Yeah. We have multiple routes for delivering Simcyp. We have -- obviously, we have our core consortium, which has been around and it's going very, very strong. We also sell the software directly outside the consortium to a number of customers that's been growing. And we have a group that uses basically we'll just do projects for people -- for customers that might be too small or not have internal capabilities to do it.

是的。我們有多條路線運送 Simcyp。顯然，我們有我們的核心財團，它已經存在並且發展得非常非常強大。我們也直接向聯盟外不斷成長的客戶銷售軟體。我們有一個團隊，主要負責為人們做專案——為那些規模太小或沒有內部能力的客戶做專案。

which has also been a significant grower over the last couple of years. So I kind of think of it as one tool we're -- we've got multiple customer segments, and we've thought about different ways to deliver it.

過去幾年中，其成長也十分顯著。所以我認為它是我們的一種工具——我們有多個客戶群，並且我們已經考慮過提供它的不同方式。

Now in addition, we're starting to interface Simcyp in with our QSP software. And that's the -- I think as we go forward, that's going to lead to additional opportunities to expand the core base we've got there. QSP, when we started this was primarily a consulting type business, but we've been investing heavily in the underlying modeling software with the idea that we've got a core advantage because we've already got a lot of the underlying parts built from Simcyp. And so that's started to come out, and there'll be additional investments in that as we go forward this year.

現在，我們開始將 Simcyp 與我們的 QSP 軟體連接起來。這就是——我認為，隨著我們不斷前進，這將帶來更多機會來擴大我們現有的核心基礎。QSP，在我們剛開始的時候主要是一家諮詢類型的企業，但我們一直在大力投資底層建模軟體，因為我們已經從 Simcyp 構建了很多底層部件，因此我們認為我們已經擁有了核心優勢。現在，這一目標已經開始顯現，隨著我們今年的推進，我們將在這方面追加投資。

Vikram Purohit, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的維克拉姆·普羅希特（Vikram Purohit）。

Hi. Thank you for taking our question. This is [Park] on for Vikram. Just you guys touched on investments you're making in AI and software. Could you provide us like your current view on BD and kind of which profile of assets could be interesting to fold in to the company at this point?

你好。感謝您回答我們的問題。這是維克拉姆 (Vikram) 的 [Park]。你們剛才談到了在人工智慧和軟體方面的投資。您能否向我們提供您對 BD 的當前看法，以及目前哪些資產組合值得納入公司？

Yeah. So we -- obviously, we have the balance sheet to continue M&A and we're constantly looking at opportunities there. We've been clear that we said we look towards software. We are busy given the number of acquisitions we've done recently, but we have the capacity to be able to do additional tuck-ins should we want to do that.

是的。因此，顯然，我們有足夠的資產負債表來繼續進行併購，我們也一直在尋找機會。我們已經明確表示我們關注軟體。由於我們最近完成的收購數量較多，所以我們很忙，但如果我們願意的話，我們有能力進行額外的收購。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。