Codere Online Luxembourg SA (CDRO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Codere Online fourth quarter 2024 results conference call.

(Operator Instructions)

Thank you.

I would now like to turn the call over to Guillermo Lancha, Head of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Thanks, operator, and welcome everyone to code online training call for the fourth quarter of 2024.

Today you will hear from our CEO, Aviv Sher and CFO, Oscar Iglesias.

Before turning the call over to Aviv, I'd like to remind everyone that during this call, we will be referring to a presentation we uploaded to our website earlier today, which includes non-IFRS preliminary and an audited financial metrics such as net gaming revenue, adjusted and constant currency figures for which you can find reconciliations or disclaimers in the appendix of the presentation.

These non-IFRS financial measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for our IFRS results.

Please note that all growth rates discussed during this call are year on year comparisons unless noted otherwise.

Let me also remind you that our accounting information is prepared under IFRS accounting standards and that throughout this presentation, all monetary figures will be in EUR unless expressed otherwise.

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, including those related to our net gaming revenue and Adjusted EBITDA outlooks, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in our earnings press release and other documents filed with the SEC and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.

These forward-looking statements reflect our current expectations based on our beliefs, assumptions, and information currently available to us.

Although we believe these expectations are reasonable, we undertake no obligation to revise any statement to reflect changes that occur after this call.

Finally, please note that a replay and transcript of this call will be available on our website at codeonline.com, where you can also sign up for our investor email alerts.

With that, I will go ahead and pass the call on to Aviv.

Thanks, Guillermo, and thanks to everyone for joining us today.

It has been an eventful few months since we spoke at the end of November.

So let me provide a brief update so that everyone is up to speed on the latest developments.

As our former auditor, Malcolm, unexpectedly resigned in December, but we were able to bring Malone Bailey on board as our new auditor before year end.

This allowed us not only to hit the ground running with them in the early January, but also to prepare and present credible plan to NASDAQ in our January 16th hearing.

Which ultimately resulted in a NASDAQ granting us the maximum extension possible until May 12th to file our '23 annual reports.

While this NASDAQ compliance issue has taken a lot more time and energy than we would have liked, we believe that things are moving in the right direction and currently expect to file our 2023 annual report within the extended deadline.

We appreciate your patience and support throughout this process and look forward to both putting this issue behind us, as always, continuing to deliver for our investors.

Moving now into the highlights of the 4th quarter of 2024, on page 8, we delivered EUR 53 million in net gaming revenues.

It's 5% above Q4, 2023, as in the prior quarter, net gaming revenue was negatively impacted by a weaker Mexican Peso.

In a constant currency term.

Net gaining revenue would have been EUR 57 million in the fourth quarter, 15% above the prior year period.

In terms of product mix, our casino segment continued to increase its contribution with 62% of our total net gaming revenue in the fourth quarter due to the seasonal decline in sport betting during December, as well as lower sport margin in Mexico throughout the quarter, primarily on the back of unfavorably an NFL results.

This growth in net gaming revenue was driven by a 6% increase in our number of average monthly active customers while we were able to maintain an average monthly spend per active customer of around EUR

120.

In regard to customer acquisitions, we had 71,000 first-time depositors in the fourth quarter, a sequential uptake versus 67,000 acquired in the third quarter.

This increase, together with a small decrease in the level of investment to acquire the customers, resulted in an average CPA in the quarter of EUR 211 the lowest since Q4 2023.

Looking forward and not and not and notwithstanding that the opportunity to invest in both Spain and Mexico continues to be very attractive.

Our board approved a one year share buyback plan for up to EUR 5 million.

We believe that the size of this plan is appropriate given our current cash position and expected cash flow generation, living.

Ample room for us, not for us to not only continue investing in the business, if and when good opportunities do so present themselves, but also to support our shares over the coming years.

Please note that under this plan there is no requirement to acquire any specific number of shares, and we may terminate the plan at any time.

In terms of next steps, we will be sending out conveying notice later today for a shareholder meeting to be held on March 3rd to approve the plan before implementing.

With this, I will now turn the call over to Oscar to cover the financial highlights of the quarter and our initial expectations for with respect to a full year of 2025.

Thanks, Aviv.

Turning now to the financial performance for the quarter on page 10, consolidated net gaming revenue grew by 5% to nearly EUR 53 million.

This was primarily driven by our Spanish business where revenue grew 10% to EUR 23 million.

In Mexico, given the currency and sports betting margin headwinds that you've mentioned earlier, net gaming revenue was flat versus the prior year at EUR 25 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was positive 1.9 million in the fourth quarter and included a contribution of approximately EUR 7 million from our Spanish business.

With this, we have reported positive Adjusted EBITDA each quarter throughout 2024 and EUR 6.4 million for the full year, including a small but positive contribution from Mexico.

As a reminder, country level results in 2024 include certain expenses that in 2023 were classified as undistributed B2B expenses, making for difficult prior year comparisons at the country level.

Looking now at our P&L on page 11, the EUR 6 million swing and Adjusted EBITDA on the 4th quarter was primarily driven by a EUR 2.5 million increase in net gaming revenue and a EUR 3 million reduction in total marketing spend.

Turning now to the consolidated figure on page 12, the 5% increase in net gaming revenue was driven by an increase in active customers, primarily in Mexico.

On a constant currency basis, net gaming revenue would have been 15% instead of the reported 5%.

FTDs meanwhile, dropped by 10% in the quarter, driven by declines in both Colombia and Argentina, but also due to the comparatively lower level of total marketing investment in the quarter.

Sequentially, however, FTDs grew 9% primarily due to strong results in Spain and Mexico.

Despite this 10% decline in FTDs versus the prior year period, we had a 6% increase in active customers in the quarter, which reflected our continued focus on and success related to the retention and reactivation of existing customers.

Turning to the Spanish operating and financial metrics, net gaming revenue in the fourth quarter increased 10% versus the prior year, driven by a higher spend per active, together with a 3% increase in the number of active customers to 49,000.

This quarter, we also had a 9% sequential increase in net gaming revenue following two quarters of sequential declines on the back of adjustments we have made to mitigate the impact from the reintroduction of bonuses in the second quarter of 2024.

In Mexico, net gaming revenue was EUR 25 million in the fourth quarter, flat with the prior year period.

The Mexican peso devalued by 14% in the fourth quarter of 2024, resulting in a EUR 3.4 million headwind to our net gaming revenue.

This on top of the EUR 3 million impact in the third quarter.

On a constant currency basis, our net gaming revenue would have grown 14%, notwithstanding the impact from a lower sports betting margin in the quarter equivalent to about 2% points, mostly driven by unfavorable NFL context.

American football is one of the top sports bet on by our customers in Mexico, and as we understand it, this was more generally a very customer-friendly NFL season.

Separately, we ended the year with nearly 70,000 average monthly actives, 16% above Q4, 2023 and 8% above the prior quarter.

As we have discussed in prior earnings calls, and notwithstanding the heightened competitive landscape, we continue to believe that the opportunity to invest and grow in Mexico is as attractive as ever.

On page 15, we are including the evolution of the Mexican peso against the EUR, which, while comparatively more stable in recent months, experienced a devaluation, as we discussed earlier of 14% in the fourth quarter.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2025, the exchange rate headwind will continue, if not worsened slightly, as the pesos strengthened further throughout the first quarter of 2024, making for a difficult comparison this quarter.

Turning to the balance sheet on page 16, as of December 31st, we had EUR 40 million of total cash on the balance sheet, of which approximately EUR 35 million was available, approximately EUR 3 million less than where we ended the third quarter due to EUR 4 million more of cash in transit with payment service providers going into year-end, and which otherwise normalized in the early days of January.

In terms of our net networking capital position, we ended the quarter with negative EUR 17.5 million, or around 8% of our full year net gaming revenue.

Which is lower than prior quarters, as it reflects the continuation of a longer-term trend of more restrictive trade terms with suppliers.

Looking at our cash flow on page 17, in 2024, we generated EUR 0.1 million of available cash, partially offset by a EUR 0.8 million negative FX impact on ending cash balances.

Due to the devaluation of the Mexican peso, which was only partially offset by the positive impact from a strengthening US dollar on certain cash balances we continue to hold in that currency.

Moving on to our outlook for 2025 on page 19, we are currently expecting to generate net gaming revenue of between EUR 220 million and EUR 230 million, a 6% increase versus 2024 at the midpoint.

While this range might look conservative after having grown more than 20% in 2024, we will be facing a number of headwinds this year beyond just the impact of a weaker Mexican peso throughout the first half of 2025.

For example, the recently announced new tax on deposits in Colombia, and a continuation of the less restrictive promotional environment in Spain.

As usual, we will see how the first half of the year plays out and adjust accordingly if and when needed.

In regard to Adjusted EBITDA, we expect to end the year in the range of EUR 10 million to EUR 15 million as we otherwise continue to pursue a prudent balance between growth and profitability.

This range reflects marketing investments at levels similar to those in 2024, which we believe are needed to support future growth of the business.

That's all from my end.

I will now hand it back over to Aviv for closing remarks.

Thanks, Oscar.

Before we move to Q&A, I want to thank Codere Online team as always for their dedication and contribution to another great year.

As we look ahead to 2025, challenges are inevitable, but with our strong foundation, strategic vision, and commitment of our team, I'm confident.

That we will overcome them and we will continue to providing our customers with a safe and enjoyable online gaming experience and otherwise delivering strong results for our shareholders, employees, and other stakeholders.

And as always, thank you to thank you to our investors, analysts, and market participants for your interest, support, and patience.

With that said, I will turn it back to the operator to open up the call to Q&A.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions)

Thank you.

And your first question comes from the line of Jeffrey Stantial with Stifel.

Your line is now open.

Hey, good morning, Aviv, Oscar.

Thanks for taking our questions.

Maybe just starting off here on guidance, apologies if I missed this, but Oscar, can you just share with us what the pace of the EUR assumption that that's embedded in in the 2025 guidance or I guess looking at differently what the implied constant currency growth would be relative to the 6% as reported guidance, at the midpoint.

Thanks.

Yeah, you're saying the specifically on the Mexican peso or?

As it relates to what we have included in our guide for 2025 full year.

As ways to what you have embedded in the guidance, but I would assume any sort of dislocation between as reported and conflict would be related to that.

I'd have to take a look.

Yeah, I don't have the numbers in front of me in terms of the FX forecast or estimates that we have included in our 2025 figures, but we can pull that after this call and get that over to you, so you have it.

Okay, great, thanks, Oscar, and then it maybe sticking on guidance, it looks like the implied flow through to EBITDA is about 46%.

That's.

Almost exactly what you realized in in 2024 though you are lapping some higher cap UA around [COA] and euros and there's some moderation in the NGR growth.

So, I guess you know my question is that a function of conservatism around opportunistic user acquisition investment is the Columbia VAT factored in here?

Is there something else we should be considering from across perspective in '25 just any thoughts there would be great.

Yeah, look, I think it's a couple of things.

The first, as always, especially going into 25 mid-year, we have this Club World Cup.

I believe it's in the summer months.

I don't know if it's June or July taking place.

So there's lots of debate and planning that's happening as it relates to what we want to do around that event, what our objectives are.

We do have at least, two clubs that we sponsor that are that are playing in that in that tournament, both Real Madrid and Rayados de Monterrey.

So that this early in the year is also is always a reason for, let's say generic conservatism as it relates to how we guide because the, especially on EBITDA front, the marketing investment is a very determining factor in the ultimate outcome on that front.

I think that's the key piece, Aviv, I don't know if you have something to add in that regard.

No, at the moment, no.

Yeah, and Jeff, on the Colombia on the Colombia front for sure, that Colombia is one that even though it's a small part of our overall business, I think every year, even smaller, it's still a significant issue that we're still working through.

This is a very relatively recent announcement, executive decree.

I'm sure that those of you that follow rush, and a few others have already seen some of this information, but it's the imposition of a tax on deposits.

So this is something a little bit different than what we've seen in other markets.

We're still assessing.

You know how we would go about doing that in terms of collecting that that VAT from a technical standpoint or otherwise to the extent permissible, absorbing part or all and what other mitigating factors we have.

So, this is not going to be an overly material issue for us given the size of our business in Colombia, but it's an important one and one that we have to deal with and obviously is one that is going to condition going forward.

Our appetite to continue investing, even if we're investing at lower levels, I think we're going to have to see, how this all plays out and then take decisions.

So that is playing into a little bit to some extent our guide with respect to full year, which it's a little bit of a tighter range than we typically would put out this early in the year.

But until that plays out, the constitutional challenge which invariably will come over the next hopefully month or one month or two months.

But once we see how that plays out and whether the tax will be in effect throughout the full year, and again I think we have to be conservative and assume that this isn't necessarily going to be a temporary tax, that this might Have, more, a more durable, staying power.

So, we are definitely being a little bit conservative on that front, even if, Columbia, is a small part of our overall business these days is something like 5%-6% of our total NGR.

Yeah, it's a huge tax.

Yeah, it's a massive tax.

It's not, it's, I think it will become very hard to operate.

The black market will flourish.

I hope the regulator will realize it fast enough because basically he's pushing players to play in the non-regulated environment instead of encouraging them to play in a regulated environment and enjoy the gaming task.

So basically I think companies at some stage will impose those taxes onto the players and eventually they will have less money to play with.

And once they realize it, it's an easy way to go to the black market and basically get the value that you want to play with those players.

Right, that's perfect.

That's all really great color.

If I could just squeeze in maybe just one more, you talked about [ca], I think it's EUR 211 during the quarter.

That's down both year on year and sequentially.

Even though you know if I recall correctly, you've talked about some competitors coming into both of your markets and creating some upward pressure here so you know I guess if you just add a little bit of color here is this kind of just general better efficiency or sort of how should we think about some of the drivers of improving cap that you're benefiting from and that's all from us thanks.

Yes, so I think a few things happen together.

In Mexico, mainly, I don't know why, but I think some of the competitors have slowed down their investment a little bit in the 4th quarter, and we are enjoying it.

Another thing is that we solved a few, let's call it small technical problems that we had.

In terms of tracking and our ability to identify, how good we are buying or how good we are investing our marketing money.

It all happened on the fourth quarter and we see the results that the CPA is going down a bit.

So it's a mix.

I don't know which one is a stronger force, but we solve some technical issues or managed to crack and to be better in our marketing investment decision making.

Plus, a little bit less competition in Mexico in the fourth quarter.

So, I think it helps us a little bit.

Great, thanks very much Aviv.

I'll pass it on.

Great, thanks, Jeff.

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl with Craig Hallum Capital Corp. Your line is now open.

Hey, good day, Aviv, Oscar, want to stay on, the competitive dynamic, you mentioned Mexico, but the recent launch of Brazil, I know you guys aren't directly there, but have you noticed any of your competitors maybe moving some of the resources, focus, etc. Onto that market which has benefited you guys or potentially, some other dynamics on why that competitive intensity is going down?

And I think Mexico, if you look at it, let's call it from a macro level, is a very lucrative market.

But once you enter it, you see that it's not that easy to operate there, and you need a huge okay, huge investment, not in compared to Brazil, of course but still, you need huge investment in order to build your brand and you need to know how to operate locally.

And I think some of the competitors, let's call them the European competitors that came in.

I think at the moment did not succeed as well as they thought.

Probably they saw success in other markets maybe in Latam, and I think right now they lost a little bit of focus into this Mexico market, a little bit cause we all know that the World Cup is coming next year, and I think all the competitors will come back again and will try again to penetrate the market.

So it's not that the competition has left, but I think they took a short break, maybe in the next few quarters, and it's an opportunity for us.

We are taking advantage of that.

Pretty good.

You mentioned the prepared marks a similar level of marketing spend in 2025 versus 2024.

I didn't catch it that is that market specific or overall, and can you split that between Spain and Mexico?

Yeah, that would be total, the total marketing spend in '25 being at similar levels to what we ultimately spent in '24.

We don't give country by country breakdowns, but I would say the trend that we've had in the last couple of years, even though '24, there was a strong investment in Spain, especially on the back of some of the Some of the restrictions falling away and additional promotional abilities to promote to our customers, over half of that is still Mexico.

Very good.

Thanks, guys.

Good luck.

Thanks, Ryan.

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski with Noble Capital Markets.

Your line is now open.

Thank you.

I have a couple of questions.

In terms of, I just go back to Mexico, were there other factors that contributed to the, to, the fact that you had the lowest revenue and adjusted to that quarter in that segment, outside of timing of the impactful sporting events and exchange rate headwinds, were there anything else that may have affected the results there?

Yeah, I would point to just looking at the fourth quarter specifically and even though that the CPA performance for the quarter overall was very good.

I think more importantly, what we gained throughout the quarter is momentum both in but in Mexico specifically going into December.

Especially we saw that that was really the driver to some of the lower acquisition, the CPAs that we were seeing overall were really being driven by Mexico, but that was later in the quarter.

So, there was momentum building within the quarter.

You're not necessarily seeing those in the numbers, and that's continued into 2025.

So January is a month where we've gotten off to a good start.

That momentum we saw that I think Avi mentioned briefly in terms of what we're seeing.

In terms of others maybe lifting their foot off the pedal from a marketing spend standpoint was something that we saw progressively over the 4th quarter and it's a momentum that we carry through into into 2025.

Gotcha, thank you for that color.

You've provided a market overview in which provides some dynamic growth opportunities for your company as you expand in other markets, and I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about that and whether or not your outlook for 2025 includes growth investments outside of Mexico.

And then as I look at your market overview, your Brazil and Argentina obviously represents some big opportunities for you, but there are a couple of other countries in there that have.

What I would call outsize growth I guess from, virtually zero in 2023, and that includes Peru and Chile.

I was just wondering if you can kind of give us your thoughts about your growth investment spend if you kind of look into 2025 and maybe 2026 as you kind of prepare for the dynamic shifts that we'll see in terms of revenues coming from online in in in some of these other regions.

Yeah.

Aviv, do you want to take that?

Yeah, let me start.

I just want maybe just a small comment on your previous question regarding the results of the fourth quarter.

You have all of you probably to understand that we are facing almost 20% on a yearly basis of a headwind from the currency exchange in Mexico.

So let's say even if I'm reporting that let's say zero growth.

It's almost 20% on a yearly basis in a nominal numbers.

So, I think our nominal results in Mexico are quite okay and we are showing and meeting the goals that we set to ourselves internally, for example, we didn't miss any of our predictions.

So I think the numbers here in EUR terms are a little bit misleading in that sense cause in terms of a nominal numbers in Mexico.

We are doing, we're doing okay.

And of course.

Well noted.

Thank you.

Yes.

Yes, it's not, it's a little bit misleading.

It's not, we didn't have a slow quarter.

We have the late quarter in nominal numbers.

We just, the forex is killing us in that sense.

It can also help us.

It helped us in the past, a year before.

So I hope, maybe all the situation with Trump and [Chambo] will get better and then we'll enjoy some tailwinds.

So, macroeconomics also have an influence here in in this kind of thing.

In terms of your other question about other markets and opportunities.

I will note several things.

First of all, the Brazil opportunity is still too big for us to go for it alone.

We did look into several potential partnerships.

We didn't find our right match yet.

We're still looking at it from time to time and we're waiting a little bit to see what's going to happen in this market.

As we know, there were a little bit problems in the lounge.

We know that people are coming with hundreds of millions of marketing budget.

So we are sitting on the bench a little bit and looking what happens.

Other markets, the problem that we are facing right now, that if I want to increase my marketing spend, my next dollar is still in terms of ROI should go into Mexico, Spain cause we know how to spend it and we know the ROI on it.

It's when we are analyzing the figures, it doesn't make sense to put the next dollar into Chile or Peru at this point of time.

We still have room to grow in our current, let's call them coal markets that that generate very nice ROI and the amount of money that let's say is available for us to penetrate a new market is not enough to turn a new market into a significant market.

So the next maybe EUR 10 million or EUR 15 million, I can still effectively invest into our current markets without taking risks in that sense.

So I think new markets, we are always looking, we are also looking for partners.

But I think in the short term, we are still, we still want to grow in our coal markets where we are seeing very good and good success in the actions that we are taking.

Avi, thank you for that color.

One country that you didn't mention was Argentina.

I was just wondering, can you give us an update on your thoughts there?

Yeah.

Argentina was maybe let's call it our third coal market, unfortunately, and we made a lot of efforts.

We are not able to at the moment to enter to the province of Argentina, where is the majority of the money in the country is coming from, and we are not able to grow our business there based only on the city.

We have good results but not good enough.

So until we are able to figure out and we are trying constantly to figure out how to get a province license, unfortunately, we cannot go to Argentina.

Hopefully, maybe in the coming year.

Some operators over there will be willing to sell their license.

We are looking into that, but at the moment, we cannot make big moves over there.

We really want it to be our third coal market.

We wanted, we made a lot of efforts, but up until now, we couldn't deliver on that front.

All right, thank you for that color.

I really appreciate it.

That's all I have.

Thanks, Mike.

(Operator Instructions)

As for now, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Guillermo.

You may begin.

Yeah, so we have no questions on the webcast here.

So, I guess we can conclude the call here.

If anybody would like to follow up on any of the topics we discussed, feel free to reach out and, otherwise, we will be speaking again with our Q1, '25 earnings around mid-May.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

That concludes today's conference call.

Thank you all for joining.

You may now disconnect.