Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA (CCU) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to CCU's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call on February 28.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 2 月 28 日舉行的 CCU 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

Today's conference call is being recorded.

今天的電話會議正在錄音。

At this time I would like to turn the conference call over to Claudio Las Heras, the Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想將電話會議轉給投資人關係主管 Claudio Las Heras。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Welcome, everyone, and thank you for attending CCU's fourth quarter 2023 conference call.

歡迎大家，並感謝您參加 CCU 2023 年第四季電話會議。

Today with me are Mr. Felipe Dubernet, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Joaquín Trejo, Financial Planning and Investor Relations Manager.

今天和我在一起的有財務長 Felipe Dubernet 先生；財務規劃和投資者關係經理 Joaquín Trejo 先生。

You have received a copy of the company's consolidated fourth quarter 2023 results.

您已收到本公司 2023 年第四季合併業績的副本。

Felipe will review our overall results, and we will then move on to our Q&A session.

費利佩將審查我們的整體結果，然後我們將進入問答環節。

Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們的警告聲明。

The statements made in this call that relate to CCU's future performance or financial results are forward-looking statements, which involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to materially differ.

本次電話會議中涉及 CCU 未來業績或財務表現的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述，其中涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性，可能導致實際業績或結果出現重大差異。

These statements should be taken in conjunction with the additional information about risks and uncertainties set forth in CCU's annual report in Form 20-F filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and in the annual report submitted to the CMF and available on our website.

這些聲明應與 CCU 向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告以及提交給 CMF 的年度報告以及我們網站上提供的有關風險和不確定性的附加資訊結合起來。

It is now my pleasure to introduce our CFO, Mr. Felipe Dubernet.

現在我很高興向大家介紹我們的財務長 Felipe Dubernet 先生。

Thank you, Claudio, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝克勞迪奧，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

During 2023, we posted a recovery in our operating results and profitability in spite of the volatile business environment, a particularly difficult year for the wine export business and Argentina's macroeconomic conditions.

2023年，儘管商業環境不穩定，對於葡萄酒出口業務和阿根廷宏觀經濟狀況來說是特別困難的一年，但我們的經營業績和獲利能力仍實現了復甦。

Our consolidated EBITDA in the year grew 6%, and EBITDA margin improved 159 basis points, driven by our main operating segment, Chile, which expanded EBITDA by 24.8%, more than offsetting a 37.4% drop in the wine operating segments and a 16% contraction in international business operating segment, which includes Argentina.

在我們的主要業務部門智利的推動下，我們的綜合EBITDA 成長了6%，EBITDA 利潤率提高了159 個基點，智利EBITDA 成長了24.8%，遠遠抵銷了葡萄酒業務部門37.4% 的下降和16%的下降。國際業務運營部門萎縮，其中包括阿根廷。

Consolidated net income contracted 10.6% versus 2022.

合併淨利較 2022 年收縮 10.6%。

The driver for the better operational result was the execution of our regional plan HerCCUles, which encompasses six pillars.

更好的營運結果的驅動力是我們區域計劃 HerCCUles 的執行，該計劃包含六個支柱。

Number one, maintain business scale; number two, strengthen revenue management efforts; number three, deliver efficiency gains through our transformation program; number four, optimizing CapEx and working capital; number five, focusing on core brands and high-volume margin innovations; and number six, continue investing in our brand equity.

第一，保持業務規模；第二，加強收入管理力道；第三，透過我們的轉型計劃提高效率；第四，優化資本支出和營運資本；第五，專注於核心品牌和高利潤創新；第六，繼續投資我們的品牌資產。

I would like to briefly mention some of the highlights of the year for each pillar.

我想簡單談談今年每個支柱的一些亮點。

In terms of pillar number one, consolidated volumes in 2023 were 3.4% below last year, mainly driven by lower consumption in Argentina for the year, a tough scenario for Chilean wine export, and deceleration in volumes in Chile during the second semester.

就第一支柱而言，2023 年綜合銷量比去年下降 3.4%，主要是由於今年阿根廷消費量下降、智利葡萄酒出口情況嚴峻以及第二季度智利銷量減速。

Nonetheless, we maintained relative scale by keeping increasing market shares in our main CapEx.

儘管如此，我們透過不斷增加主要資本支出的市場份額來維持相對規模。

As for pillar number two, we executed revenue management initiatives in all our geographies, especially noticeable in Chile, where average prices increased 7.9%, being key to recover margins, offsetting cost and expenses pressures, and negative mix effect.

至於第二支柱，我們在所有地區執行了收入管理舉措，尤其是在智利，平均價格上漲了 7.9%，這是恢復利潤、抵消成本和費用壓力以及負面混合效應的關鍵。

Regarding pillar number three, we were able to deliver efficiencies during the year as total expenses, including manufacturing cost of MSD&A as a percentage of net sales were stable at 47.7% in 2022 and 2023.

關於第三個支柱，我們能夠在這一年中提高效率，因為總支出（包括 MSD&A 的製造成本佔淨銷售額的百分比）在 2022 年和 2023 年穩定在 47.7%。

In terms of pillar number four, we recovered our cash generation, mainly due to a reduction in working capital versus 2022, CapEx optimization, and a higher EBITDA.

就第四支柱而言，我們恢復了現金生成，主要是由於與 2022 年相比營運資本減少、資本支出優化和更高的 EBITDA。

Finally, in line with pillar number five and six, we reduced the number of SKUs following us to focus in core brands and profitable innovation, reducing the complexity of our operation, and we posted solid levels of

最後，根據第五和第六支柱，我們減少了跟隨我們的 SKU 數量，專注於核心品牌和盈利性創新，降低了我們營運的複雜性，並且我們發布了穩定的

['23].

['23]。

From a quarterly perspective, consolidated EBITDA dropped 9.9%, and EBITDA margin was up from 16% to 19.3%.

從季度來看，合併EBITDA下降9.9%，EBITDA利潤率從16%上升至19.3%。

In this quarter, it is important to mention that the charge devaluation of the Argentine peso against the US dollar generated a material impact in our results in quarter four 2023.

在本季度，值得一提的是，阿根廷比索兌美元貶值對我們 2023 年第四季的業績產生了重大影響。

The Argentine currency jumped at 131%, the exchange rate, from ARS350 per dollar as of September 30, 2023, to ARS808.5 per dollar as of December 31, 2023.

截至2023年12月31日，阿根廷貨幣匯率上漲131%，從2023年9月30日每美元350阿根廷盧比上升至每美元808.5阿根廷盧比。

Thus, as Argentina is under hyperinflation accounting according to the IAS 29, accumulated results in Argentina as of September 30, 2023 are updated to prices and exchange rate levels to the end of the period.

因此，由於阿根廷根據 IAS 29 進行惡性通貨膨脹會計，截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的阿根廷累計結果將更新為截至期末的價格和匯率水準。

This generated a loss in the quarter CLP24,018 million in consolidated EBITDA, of which CLP22,804 million are accounted in international business operating segment and CLP1,250 million are accounted in the wine operating segment.

這導致本季合併 EBITDA 虧損 240.18 億智利比索，其中國際業務營運部門虧損 228.04 億智利比索，葡萄酒營運部門虧損 12.5 億智利比索。

Excluding these effects, consolidated EBITDA in the quarter would have expanded 3.4% versus same quarter of last year.

排除這些影響，本季綜合 EBITDA 將比去年同期成長 3.4%。

In terms of the segment, in the key operating segment, top line decreased 2.2% in the last quarter due to a 7.3% contraction in volumes, partially compensated with 5.5% higher average prices.

就細分市場而言，在主要營運細分市場中，由於銷量萎縮 7.3%，上季營收下降了 2.2%，但平均價格上漲 5.5% 部分彌補了這一影響。

Lower volumes were mostly related to a weakening demand, which was especially affected by weather conditions.

銷量下降主要與需求疲軟有關，尤其是受到天氣條件的影響。

While prices were driven by revenue management initiatives, EBITDA increased 20.9% and EBITDA margin improved and expanded from 14.2% to 17.5%.

雖然價格受到收入管理措施的推動，但 EBITDA 成長了 20.9%，EBITDA 利潤率也有所改善，從 14.2% 擴大到 17.5%。

In the International operating segment, which includes Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay, net sales dropped 90%, mainly as a result of a contraction of 89.4% in average prices in Chilean pesos due to the impact of hyperinflation accounting stated above as prices in local currency evolves in line with inflation.

在包括阿根廷、玻利維亞、巴拉圭和烏拉圭在內的國際業務部門，淨銷售額下降了 90%，主要是由於上述惡性通貨膨脹會計的影響，智利比索的平均價格下降了 89.4%。當地貨幣隨通貨膨脹而變化。

Volumes contracted 8.3%, fully explained by Argentina.

成交量萎縮 8.3%，這完全是由阿根廷造成的。

As all the other geographies posted positive volume growth, EBITDA contracted 53.7%.

由於所有其他地區的銷售量均出現正成長，EBITDA 收縮了 53.7%。

In the wine operating segment, revenues were down 11.7%, mainly explained by 8.8% decrease in volumes, driven by a 10.2% decrease in the Chile domestic market and a 5.6% contraction in exports from Chile.

在葡萄酒業務部門，營收下降了11.7%，主要是由於智利國內市場下降10.2%和智利出口萎縮5.6%導致銷量下降8.8%。

Average prices contracted by 3.1%, also due to the impact of hyperinflation accounting stated above in our wine business in Argentina and a stronger Chilean peso against the US dollar, which impacted negatively our export revenues.

平均價格收縮了 3.1%，這也是由於我們在阿根廷的葡萄酒業務中受到上述惡性通貨膨脹會計的影響以及智利比索兌美元走強，這對我們的出口收入產生了負面影響。

Partially offset by revenue management initiatives in our domestic markets, EBITDA decreased 21.3%.

EBITDA 下降了 21.3%，部分被我們國內市場的收入管理措施所抵銷。

Regarding our main JV and associated business from a yearly perspective in Colombia, volumes contracted low single digit in 2023 in a scenario of weaker consumption.

從年度角度來看，我們在哥倫比亞的主要合資企業和相關業務在消費疲軟的情況下，2023 年銷售量下降了個位數。

In Argentina, our water business recorded mid-single-digit growth in volumes, despite the complex economic environment, explained by the strength of the brands and a successful route-to-market integration of this business into our operations.

在阿根廷，儘管經濟環境複雜，但我們的水業務量仍實現了中個位數成長，這得益於品牌的實力以及該業務與我們業務的成功市場整合。

Now, I will be glad to answer any question you may have.

現在，我很樂意回答您的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Mr. Felipe Ucros, Scotiabank.

（操作員指示） Felipe Ucros 先生，豐業銀行。

Thanks, operator.

謝謝，接線生。

Good morning, Felipe, Joaquín, and team.

早安，費利佩、華金和團隊。

Thanks for the space.

謝謝你的空間。

So my first question is on Argentina.

我的第一個問題是關於阿根廷的。

Obviously, a messy quarter.

顯然，這是一個混亂的季度。

All the hyperinflationary accounting effects kind of muddy up the quarter.

所有惡性通貨膨脹的會計影響都讓這個季度變得混亂。

But how did the quarter start for Argentina in 2024?

但 2024 年阿根廷這個季度是如何開始的呢？

Hard things looking there?

那裡有硬東西嗎？

And then if I can, I'll do a follow-up.

然後，如果可以的話，我會進行跟進。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you, Felipe, for your question regarding Argentina.

謝謝費利佩提出有關阿根廷的問題。

The quarter maintained exactly the same trend as we had in quarter four.

該季度保持了與第四季度完全相同的趨勢。

So we continue to increase prices in line with inflation.

因此，我們繼續根據通貨膨脹提高價格。

Inflation level during January was 20.5% in Argentina.

阿根廷一月份的通貨膨脹率為20.5%。

This is public data.

這是公開數據。

And we are experiencing industry contraction of, let's say, high single digit, let's say during January for the time being.

我們正在經歷行業收縮，比如說，暫時是一月份的高個位數收縮。

It is expected, but we will have a lower level of inflation in Argentina in February.

這是預料之中的，但阿根廷 2 月的通膨水準將會較低。

Still, we do not have official data, but we will continue our revenue management efforts there in order to keep profitability in Argentina.

儘管如此，我們沒有官方數據，但我們將繼續在當地進行收入管理工作，以保持阿根廷的獲利能力。

Great, great.

很棒很棒。

And before I move to the next question, Felipe, great comments on how the consumer's doing.

在我進入下一個問題之前，Felipe，我對消費者的表現發表了精彩的評論。

Let me ask you, do you expect margins to deteriorate as you eventually have to adjust employees in Argentina?

讓我問你，由於你最終不得不調整阿根廷的員工，你預期利潤率會惡化嗎？

Or what type of margin environment do you expect as the year starts?

或者您預計新年伊始的利潤環境是什麼樣的？

Look, I will not give you a forward looking, but in Argentina, all the pillars of HerCCUles are completely valid, let's say.

聽著，我不會給你展望未來，但在阿根廷，HerCCUles 的所有支柱都是完全有效的，可以這麼說。

Of course, we would like to maintain business scale, but it would be difficult given the macro environment.

當然，我們希望保持業務規模，但考慮到宏觀環境，這會很困難。

But at least relative scale, we are maintaining, thanks to this because our portfolio ended up as getting in a very strong way, let's say.

但至少我們正在維持相對規模，這要歸功於我們的投資組合最終變得非常強大，可以說。

So the relative scale would be maintained.

因此相對規模將保持不變。

The big answer would be, let's say, how much the industry would suffer.

比方說，最重要的答案是該產業將遭受多少損失。

The good news is if the government plans works in terms of having lower levels of inflation, maybe we could experience, let's say, some relief in terms of the contraction of the volumes.

好消息是，如果政府計劃在降低通膨水平方面發揮作用，也許我們可以在銷售收縮方面感受到一些緩解。

But all the pillars are towards, let's say, not suffering in profitability terms.

但可以說，所有支柱都是為了不損害獲利能力。

Let's say we will continue revenue management efforts there, as I pointed out.

正如我所指出的，假設我們將繼續在那裡進行收入管理工作。

Efficiencies are keys.

效率是關鍵。

A number of projects in several areas, logistics, manufacturing, in terms of expense control, are very valid on that.

物流、製造等多個領域的許多項目在費用控制方面都非常有效。

Also, taking care of the cash is important of working capital, inventory reduction.

此外，保管好現金對於營運資金、減少庫存也很重要。

We have in fact reduced our inventory levels, let's say, to work with less safety in terms of reacting -- maintaining flexibility towards the market but in a more efficient way.

事實上，我們已經降低了庫存水平，比如說，在反應方面安全性較低——保持對市場的靈活性，但以更有效的方式。

Also, portfolio rationalization is something important.

此外，投資組合合理化也很重要。

Enhancing also investing behind returnable packaging also is a way to protect our profitability.

加強對可回收包裝的投資也是保護我們獲利能力的一種方式。

And of course, because all of these need to be possible, thanks of our high levels of -- or good levels of brand equity to continue invest behind the brands, because without a stronger brand, you don't have -- it would be very difficult to maintain our relative scale.

當然，因為所有這些都需要成為可能，這要歸功於我們高水平或良好水平的品牌資產來繼續投資於品牌，因為如果沒有更強大的品牌，你就不會擁有——維持我們的相對規模非常困難。

Very clear.

非常清楚。

Thanks very much for that.

非常感謝。

Maybe if I can do a second one Chile.

也許我可以做第二個智利。

Weather seems to have been a factor in the quarter, and I think your peers reported exactly the same thing.

天氣似乎是本季的一個因素，我認為您的同行也報告了完全相同的情況。

So I'm wondering, how did results look if you didn't have the weather effects?

所以我想知道，如果沒有天氣影響，結果會是如何？

And what I mean is I'm trying to gauge how the consumer is doing if you put aside the weather factor.

我的意思是，如果拋開天氣因素，我正在嘗試衡量消費者的表現。

That's very difficult.

那是非常困難的。

I guess we need an algorithm for that.

我想我們需要一個演算法來實現這一點。

Of course, we have some internal algorithms, but if the -- how much?

當然，我們有一些內部演算法，但如果有的話——多少？

So I think there is a weaker demand itself in the consumer.

所以我認為消費者的需求本身就較弱。

The consumer is not in the same shape as it used to be in 2021 and beginning of '22 period.

消費者的狀況與 2021 年和 22 世紀初期不同。

We know that.

我們知道。

We have had two bad quarters, quarter three and four, in terms of not good weather conditions for selling refrigerated drinks, let's say.

我們經歷了兩個糟糕的季度，第三和第四季度，就銷售冷藏飲料而言，天氣條件不佳。

The majority of our portfolio need to be drink.

我們的產品組合大部分都是飲料。

Of course, it was unfavorable in terms of rain, in terms of temperatures.

當然，就降雨、氣溫而言，這對我們來說是不利的。

So factoring out the weather would be -- we decrease 7.3%.

因此，如果排除天氣因素，我們的成長率將下降 7.3%。

I would not attribute 100% to the weather, but I don't have a number to provide to you -- exact number to provide to you how much the weather would influence on this decrease in volume.

我不會將 100% 歸因於天氣，但我沒有可以向您提供的數字——確切的數字可以向您提供天氣對體積減少的影響有多大。

It would be difficult.

這會很困難。

Maybe an indicator could be quarter one that we have had more stable weather in terms of temperatures, but still, it's too early to call the quarter one.

也許第一季的一個指標可能表明我們的天氣在氣溫方面更加穩定，但現在稱之為第一季還為時過早。

January has started in good shape with low single-digit growth because we have a more normalized weather.

由於天氣更加正常化，一月份的開局狀況良好，增長率較低，個位數。

But certainly, as I mentioned in previous conference call, without giving you future forecast, because it's difficult on that, because there are several factor, risks and uncertainties, I think low-single digit, between mid- and low-single digit should be the growth if you take out the weather.

但當然，正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的，沒有給你未來的預測，因為這很困難，因為有幾個因素、風險和不確定性，我認為低個位數，中個位數和低個位數之間應該是如果去掉天氣因素，成長就會增加。

And it's aligned with GDP in Chile.

它與智利的國內生產毛額一致。

That's super helpful, especially the comments on January.

這非常有幫助，尤其是一月份的評論。

That helps us a lot.

這對我們有很大幫助。

So thanks for that, Felipe.

謝謝你，費利佩。

I'll hand it back to you.

我會把它還給你。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We also acknowledge the text question from Mr. Pablo Bello from BTG, which we believe was answered in this answer about Argentina.

我們也感謝來自 BTG 的 Pablo Bello 先生提出的文字問題，我們相信這個問題在有關阿根廷的回答中得到了回答。

Mr. Fernando Olvera, Bank of America.

美國銀行費爾南多·奧爾維拉先生。

Hi, good morning -- good afternoon.

嗨，早安——下午好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I have two.

我有兩個。

The first one is related to Chile.

第一個與智利有關。

If you can comment what is your outlook on cost and how FX will play in coming quarters.

如果您可以評論一下您對成本的展望以及未來幾季外匯將如何發揮。

And if you can share some color of how margins should behave this year, particularly in Chile.

您能否分享今年利潤率的表現，尤其是在智利。

That's my first question, and I have a second one.

這是我的第一個問題，我還有第二個問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

First of all, Pablo, I already answered the question regarding Argentina to Felipe.

首先，巴勃羅，我已經向費利佩回答了有關阿根廷的問題。

Anyway, thank you for your question.

不管怎樣，謝謝你的提問。

Fernando, yeah, of course, you pointed out the main risk that we are facing nowadays in terms of FX.

費爾南多，是的，當然，您指出了我們目前在外匯方面面臨的主要風險。

Today, US dollar is CLP980 which is much higher than what we had in previous quarter.

今天，美元匯率為 CLP980，遠高於上一季的水平。

And we have a pressure on that in terms of, of course, as an example, last year, US dollar was -- average exchange rate in Chile was CLP839.

當然，我們面臨壓力，例如，去年，美元在智利的平均匯率是 CLP839。

Now we are, let's say, more than CLP100 more, so this is more than 10%.

現在我們比 CLP100 多了，所以這超過了 10%。

And this would have certainly an impact in our P&L, in our cost structure.

這肯定會對我們的損益和成本結構產生影響。

Although commodities are stable with the exception of sugar, let's say, but commodities are stable, what we need to do at the end is to compensate that in order to have more stable EBITDA margins.

雖然除了糖以外的大宗商品都很穩定，但是大宗商品是穩定的，我們最終需要做的是對其進行補償，以獲得更穩定的 EBITDA 利潤率。

And this, we need to enhance our revenue management efforts, enhance our efficiency efforts also to speed up some projects that we have in terms of efficiencies.

為此，我們需要加強我們的收入管理工作，提高我們的效率工作，並加快我們在效率方面的一些專案。

Improve mix also is a way to compensate this pressure in terms of the US dollar.

改善組合也是彌補美元壓力的一種方法。

And this is fully aligned with HerCCUles, but you pointed out that is one of the risks that we are facing.

這與 HerCCUles 完全一致，但您指出這是我們面臨的風險之一。

Okay.

好的。

Great, Felipe.

太棒了，費利佩。

And my second question is related to your SKUs reduction.

我的第二個問題與你們的 SKU 減少有關。

If you can comment about that to give us an idea of how many SKUs you eliminated in 2023.

如果您可以對此發表評論，讓我們了解您在 2023 年淘汰了多少 SKU。

Any idea of how this favor your profitability and if you are going to continue with the SKU reduction this year?

您知道這對您的盈利能力有何幫助嗎？您今年是否打算繼續減少 SKU？

Thank you.

謝謝。

We took out about -- for our offers about 100 SKUs, but this does not represent.

我們為我們的報價拿出了大約 100 個 SKU，但這並不代表。

It should be in terms of percentage, about 5%.

應該是百分比，5%左右。

But the idea is not reducing.

但這個想法並沒有減少。

All the time you do tacking the tailing, let's say, SKU reduction, but the incentive of that is to really if we need to launch something when innovation should be relevant, should have better margins, should improve the brand equity of the category of the portfolio, improve brand equity, deliver higher margins, and also improve volumes.

你一直在解決尾隨問題，比如說減少SKU，但這樣做的動機是，如果我們需要推出一些東西，那麼創新應該是相關的，應該有更好的利潤，應該提高該類別的品牌資產產品組合、提高品牌資產、提供更高的利潤並提高銷售量。

So at the end, it's an exercise that we should -- is about discipline on that.

所以最後，這是我們應該進行的一項練習——關於這方面的紀律。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you, Felipe.

謝謝你，費利佩。

(Operator Instructions) Mr. Ulises Bolio, JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）Ulises Bolio 先生，摩根大通。

Hi guys.

嗨，大家好。

Thanks so much for the space, for questions.

非常感謝您提供的空間和問題。

A couple of follow-ups on my side.

我這邊有一些後續行動。

So first on the Chile volumes, can you provide a little bit of detail how was the performance there on the alcoholic versus non-alcoholic?

首先，您能否提供一些有關智利卷的詳細信息，其中酒精飲料與非酒精飲料的表現如何？

And maybe a double click there on how those more premium beer categories continue to perform there?

也許雙擊一下這些更優質的啤酒類別將如何繼續在那裡表現？

And then the other one on FX, I just wanted to hear your thoughts, more or less what being embedded in your budget in terms of FX for the year?

然後是關於外匯的另一個問題，我只是想聽聽您的想法，或多或少在您今年的外匯預算中包含了什麼？

And what are you thinking in terms of the pricing that you need to do to offset this pressure?

您認為需要採取哪些定價措施來抵銷這種壓力？

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Yes.

是的。

Regarding your first question, volumes in quarter four were exactly the very similar both in non-alcoholic and beer, no big difference in terms of decrease for both.

關於你的第一個問題，第四季非酒精飲料和啤酒的銷售量非常相似，兩者的下降量沒有太大差異。

So we are talking about between mid- to high-single digit, let's say.

因此，我們正在討論中高個位數之間的情況。

Because overall, decrease in volumes in Chile was 7%, so was very similar across the board.

因為總體而言，智利的銷量下降了 7%，所以整體情況非常相似。

Regarding FX, yeah, we will have a significant effect on this.

關於外匯，是的，我們將對此產生重大影響。

More or less 70% or 75% are linked to the US dollar of our direct cost, raw material cost, packaging material cost, and also energy costs.

我們的直接成本、原料成本、包裝材料成本、還有能源成本，或多或少有70%、75%與美元掛鉤。

So we need to do efforts in revenue management certainly to compensate because every -- let's say, CLP10 of devaluation more or less is about CLP2,000 million effect in our EBITDA being compensated by -- but are already compensated by the export business.

因此，我們肯定需要在收入管理方面做出努力來進行補償，因為每一次貶值（比方說，CLP10）或多或少都會對我們的EBITDA 產生約20 億CLP 的影響，但已經由出口業務補償了。

So this is net of the export that we have in wine, especially, that compensate somewhat at the consolidated level.

因此，這扣除了我們的葡萄酒出口，特別是在綜合水平上有所補償。

So if you have sustained CLP100, so we need to deliver in our P&L extra between CLP20,000 million to CLP25,000 million.

因此，如果您維持 100 智利比索，那麼我們需要在損益表中提供 200 億智利比索至 250 億智利比索之間的額外收益。

So this is a significant number if you look at the total EBITDA of Chile.

因此，如果你看看智利的 EBITDA 總額，這是一個相當大的數字。

So it should be a combination of tools, let's say, revenue management, efficiencies, cost and expense control.

因此，它應該是多種工具的組合，例如收入管理、效率、成本和費用控制。

So it's something in order to have stable margins, let's say.

可以說，這是為了獲得穩定的利潤率。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That is very clear.

這是非常清楚的。

And then just on that FX question, are you able to share more or less what you're budgeting in terms of that, like for your plan for 2024, what kind of FX are you seeing?

然後就外匯問題而言，您是否能夠或多或少地分享您的預算，例如您的 2024 年計劃，您看到什麼樣的外匯？

And then just to have that as a maybe a kind of a benchmark of what we should be thinking about in that sense and the impacts on cost?

然後只是將其作為我們應該在這個意義上考慮的事情以及對成本的影響的一種基準？

Oh, I'm not an economist; I'm not methodologies.

哦，我不是經濟學家；我是經濟學家。我不是方法論。

So I cannot predict whether neither exchange rate.

所以我無法預測兩者的匯率是否相同。

I would not like to do a prediction on exchange rates.

我不想對匯率進行預測。

I can give you current exchange rates, okay?

我可以給你目前的匯率，好嗎？

This is the best projection you have, the current one.

這是目前最好的投影。

And maybe you could look at the Bloomberg to the futures of the Chilean peso.

也許你可以看看彭博社對智利比索期貨的報導。

So currency rate is CLP960.

所以貨幣匯率是CLP960。

I will ask Joaquín now how are the prediction of the US dollar, how much is -- yeah, like that.

我現在會問華金，美元的預測如何，是多少——是的，就像這樣。

Today's spot price is CLP960, a year ago -- or no, average of last year was CLP840.

今天的現貨價格是 CLP960，一年前——或者不是，去年的平均價格是 CLP840。

So it's a pressure in exchange rate.

所以這是匯率的壓力。

And it's a pressure that has increased since January.

自一月份以來，這種壓力有所增加。

All right, no, I think that's fair enough.

好吧，不，我認為這很公平。

So yeah, I was kind of putting you in a tough position there, but understood.

所以，是的，我有點讓你處於一個艱難的境地，但我理解。

Thanks so much for the color there, guys.

非常感謝那裡的顏色，夥計們。

Mr. Felipe Ucros, Scotiabank.

Felipe Ucros 先生，豐業銀行。

Thanks, operator.

謝謝，接線生。

Since it seemed there wasn't anybody else on the queue, I thought I'd take advantage and ask another one, Felipe.

由於隊列中似乎沒有其他人，我想我應該趁機詢問另一個人，費利佩。

So thanks.

那謝謝啦。

I know wine is not the largest segment, so it might be unusual to ask about this one.

我知道葡萄酒並不是最大的細分市場，因此詢問這個細分市場可能會很不尋常。

But strategically speaking, it's the segment that seems more challenged in the long term.

但從戰略上講，從長遠來看，這一領域似乎面臨更大的挑戰。

Volumes have been falling for the larger part of the last few years.

在過去幾年的大部分時間裡，銷量一直在下降。

And I know it's not a CCU problem.

我知道這不是 CCU 的問題。

It's an industry problem.

這是一個行業問題。

We've seen it across lines throughout the world.

我們在世界各地都看到了這種情況。

But just wondering if there's a plan to kind of turnaround that dynamic or offset that decline in wine consumption.

但只是想知道是否有計劃來扭轉這種動態或抵消葡萄酒消費量的下降。

Anything you guys are thinking of to improve performance in that segment?

你們有什麼想法來提高該領域的績效嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you, Felipe, for your question.

謝謝你，費利佩，你的問題。

Of course, we suffered a terrible 2023 in the wine export industry, not only in Chile, but also Argentina.

當然，2023年我們在葡萄酒出口產業遭遇了糟糕的一年，不只是在智利，還有阿根廷。

I saw some numbers yesterday of decrease of Australia exports, Chile exports.

昨天我看到一些數據顯示澳洲出口、智利出口減少。

So I think there are factors that are related of the carrying inventory units of places that are far from consumption centers.

所以我認為有一些因素與遠離消費中心的地方的庫存單位有關。

So there is something of the economics, of the export that has an influence and given the interest rate that especially in the US, has not reduced.

因此，考慮到利率（尤其是美國的利率）並未降低，經濟、出口的某些因素會產生影響。

Yes, the same interest rate is still we are less competitive in terms of carrying out inventory cost.

是的，相同的利率仍然是我們在執行庫存成本方面競爭力較差。

So we experienced this in 2023.

所以我們在 2023 年經歷了這一點。

Now, what I would say, we are seeing some greens, let's say, green grass of some embryonari good signals in terms that we expect at least in the first quarter to have some growth in terms of the exports volume.

現在，我想說的是，我們看到了一些綠色，比如說，一些胚胎的綠草，這是我們預計至少在第一季度出口量會出現一些增長的良好信號。

As you pointed out, there is a global industry in terms of volume that has decreased, but there are some tools that we need to look at.

正如您所指出的，全球行業的數量有所下降，但我們需要關註一些工具。

So of course, premiumization, something innovation, it's a category that needs innovation.

當然，高端化、創新是一個需要創新的類別。

We are innovating a lot, especially in the domestic market in Chile through brand extensions, sweet wine in order to keep in -- to maintain the scale, especially in the domestic markets.

我們正在進行許多創新，特別是在智利的國內市場，透過品牌延伸，甜酒以保持規模，特別是在國內市場。

Also, sparkling wine is doing very well.

此外，氣泡酒也表現出色。

In the exports, that are more complicated, because as I mentioned, we have some constraints there because it's difficult global branding.

在出口方面，情況更加複雜，因為正如我所提到的，我們在那裡有一些限制，因為全球品牌建立很困難。

No one has -- or a few that has really global branding in terms of wine, it's country by country, region by region.

沒有人或少數人在葡萄酒方面擁有真正的全球品牌，這是一個國家一個國家一個地區一個地區的情況。

So it's difficult.

所以這很難。

So what we are working in order to make it more profitable and to sustain the scale, even growing in some markets, is through improving our execution.

因此，為了提高利潤並維持規模，甚至在某些市場上成長，我們正在努力提高我們的執行力。

And it's all about execution, especially in some key markets.

這一切都與執行有關，尤其是在一些關鍵市場。

We open the commercial office in China, also in the US and the UK.

我們在中國、美國和英國設立了商務辦事處。

So with these three, let's say, new endeavors, we think we would significantly improve the execution in those markets.

因此，透過這三項新的努力，我們認為我們將顯著提高這些市場的執行力。

That's very clear.

這非常清楚。

Thanks so much for the color.

非常感謝你的顏色。

Mr. Alessandro Conti, Jefferies.

亞歷山德羅·孔蒂先生，傑弗里斯。

Are you planning on initiating cost cutting initiatives, especially in Chile?

您是否計劃啟動成本削減計劃，尤其是在智利？

Do you see any foreseeable improvement in margins?

您認為利潤率有任何可預見的改善嗎？

Cost cutting seems a little bit aggressive, let's say.

可以說，成本削減似乎有點激進。

I would say cost control to make with the same resources better and more, but of course, our efficiency plan is in place in terms of improving expenses as -- the key indicator are expenses over revenues, and that we need to reduce that in the long term or in the medium term and also this year.

我想說的是，成本控制是為了利用相同的資源做得更好、更多，但當然，我們的效率計劃在改善支出方面已經到位，因為關鍵指標是支出與收入之比，我們需要在長期或中期以及今年也是如此。

So we have plans for that, especially at the expense level.

所以我們對此有計劃，特別是在費用層面。

In costs themselves, it depends a lot on the market, the exchange rate, the direct cost of raw material and packaging materials.

就成本本身而言，很大程度取決於市場、匯率、原料和包裝材料的直接成本。

So of course, is a key pillar, pillar number three in terms of efficiency in order to keep the pace with this game.

當然，為了跟上這場比賽的步伐，效率是一個關鍵支柱，第三個支柱就是效率。

If this would be reflected or not in the bottom line would depend on other factors, let's say, but the priority is one key pillar of HerCCUles are efficiencies.

可以說，這是否會反映在底線中將取決於其他因素，但優先事項是 HerCCUles 的關鍵支柱是效率。

Okay, thank you very much for the answer.

好的，非常感謝您的回答。

We see no further questions at this point.

目前我們沒有看到更多問題。

I'll pass the line back to the management team for their concluding remarks.

我會將這條線轉回給管理團隊，讓他們進行總結發言。

In 2024, we will continue working under our three strategic pillars: growth, profitability and sustainability.

2024 年，我們將繼續圍繞三大策略支柱開展工作：成長、獲利能力和永續性。

And we'll keep implementing HerCCUles.

我們將繼續實施 HerCCUles。

We know that the environment in the region will continue to be challenging, especially in Argentina.

我們知道該地區的環境將繼續充滿挑戰，特別是在阿根廷。

Nonetheless, we expect to be able to continue on the recovery path of our financial results and profitability.

儘管如此，我們預計我們的財務業績和獲利能力將繼續走上復甦之路。

Finally, I would like to thank all our employees.

最後，我要感謝我們所有的員工。

Given their hard work and commitment with CCU, we have been able to navigate challenging years.

鑑於他們的辛勤工作和對 CCU 的承諾，我們得以度過充滿挑戰的歲月。

We will continue working united to sustain a path of profitable and sustainable growth.

我們將繼續團結一致，維持獲利和永續成長的道路。

Thank you and have a wonderful end of the day.

謝謝您，祝您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

We'll now be closing all the lines.

我們現在將關閉所有線路。

Thank you and goodbye.

謝謝，再見。