Crown Holdings Inc (CCK) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. The conference will begin momentarily. Until such time, you will hear music. Thank you and please continue to stand by.

感謝您的耐心等候。會議即將開始。在此之前，您將聽到音樂。感謝您，並請繼續等候。

Good morning and welcome to Crown Holdings first-quarter 2026 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this conference is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Crown Holdings 2026 年第一季電話法說會。（接線員指示）請注意，本次會議將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想將會議交給資深副總裁暨財務長 Kevin Clothier 先生。先生，您可以開始。

Thank you, Al, and good morning. With me on today's call is Tim Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you don't already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at crowncourt.com on this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary from such statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to vary is contained in the press release and our SEC filings, including our Form 10-K for 2025 and subsequent filings.

謝謝你，Al，早安。今天與我一同參與電話會議的還有總裁暨執行長 Tim Donahue。如果您尚未取得財報新聞稿，可在我們的網站 crowncourt.com 下載。在本次電話會議以及財報新聞稿中，我們將做出若干前瞻性陳述；實際結果可能與這些陳述有所差異。關於可能導致實際結果不同的因素之更多資訊，載於新聞稿及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中，包括我們的 2025 年 Form 10-K 以及後續申報文件。

Earnings for the quarter were $1.56 per share compared to $1.65 per share in the prior year quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.86, up 11% compared to $1.67 in the prior year quarter. Net sales for the quarter were up 13% compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting a 5% increase in global beverage can volumes, $234 million from the pass-through of higher raw material costs, and $74 million from favorable foreign exchange. Segment income was $405 million in the quarter, compared to $398 million in the prior year, reflecting higher beverage can shipments in Europe and Asia-Pacific, partially offset by lower volumes in Brazil and lower cost recovery in North American beverage.

本季每股盈餘為 1.56 美元，去年同期為 1.65 美元。調整後每股盈餘為 1.86 美元，較去年同期的 1.67 美元成長 11%。本季淨銷售額較去年同期成長 13%，反映全球飲料罐銷量增加 5%、因原物料成本上升而轉嫁的 2.34 億美元，以及有利匯率帶來的 7,400 萬美元。部門營業利益本季為 4.05 億美元，去年同期為 3.98 億美元，主要反映歐洲與亞太飲料罐出貨增加，部分被巴西銷量下滑以及北美飲料罐成本回收較低所抵銷。

Second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per diluted share are projected to be in the range of $2.10 to $2.20 per share, and full year is projected to be $7.90 to $8.30 per share with a $0.05 headwind in the second quarter and a $0.10 headwind for the full year due to the conflict in the Middle East. The adjusted earnings guidance for the full year includes net interest expense of approximately $355 million; exchange rates at current level with the euro at $1.17 to the $1; full-year tax rate of approximately 25%; depreciation of approximately $330 million; non-controlling interest expense, approximately $145 million, while dividends to non-controlling interest are expected to be $110 million.

預估 2026 年第二季調整後稀釋每股盈餘介於 2.10 至 2.20 美元；全年預估介於 7.90 至 8.30 美元。由於中東衝突，第二季將有每股 0.05 美元的不利影響（headwind），全年將有每股 0.10 美元的不利影響。全年調整後盈餘指引包含：淨利息費用約 3.55 億美元；匯率以目前水準估算，歐元兌美元為 1 歐元兌 1.17 美元；全年稅率約 25%；折舊約 3.30 億美元；非控制權益費用約 1.45 億美元，而支付給非控制權益的股利預期為 1.10 億美元。

Share repurchases are expected to be approximately $600 million. We maintain our 2026 full-year free cash flow guidance of approximately $900 million after $550 million of capital spending to support our growth projects in Brazil, Greece, Spain, and India.

預期股票回購約 6.00 億美元。我們維持 2026 年全年自由現金流指引約 9.00 億美元（在投入 5.50 億美元資本支出之後），以支持我們在巴西、希臘、西班牙與印度的成長專案。

The company's net leverage was 2.7 times at the end of the first quarter, reflecting seasonal working capital build. The company expects year-end net leverage to be approximately 2.5 times, in line with our long-term target.

公司第一季末的淨槓桿倍數為 2.7 倍，反映季節性營運資金增加。公司預期年底淨槓桿倍數約為 2.5 倍，符合我們的長期目標。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

接下來我把電話交給 Tim。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to everyone. As Kevin just discussed and as reflected in last night's earnings release, the company had a firm start to the year with earnings per share up 11% over 2025. Global beverage unit volumes were up 5% in the quarter on the back of strong demand across Europe and Asia-Pacific. And when coupled with 3% North American food can volume growth, that offset volume declines in Brazil and higher input costs in North America.

謝謝你，Kevin，也向各位道早安。如 Kevin 剛才所述，並如昨晚發布的財報新聞稿所示，公司今年開局穩健，每股盈餘較 2025 年成長 11%。本季全球飲料罐單位銷量成長 5%，主要受惠於歐洲與亞太的強勁需求；再加上北美食品罐銷量成長 3%，抵銷了巴西銷量下滑以及北美投入成本上升的影響。

The conflict in the Middle East continues to create volatility across energy, transportation, and direct materials such as aluminum and coatings. The biggest direct impact to Crown has been in the Middle East where religious tourism has been significantly reduced, and some customers have not been able to export.

中東衝突持續在能源、運輸以及鋁材與塗料等直接材料方面造成波動。對 Crown 最大的直接影響發生在中東地區：宗教觀光顯著減少，且部分客戶無法出口。

Although Crown's March month shipments in the Middle East were up 19% over the prior year, as our operations in Saudi and Jordan supported the UAE. All Crown plants remain operational with adequate supplies of materials. Although for safety purposes, we have curtailed operations in Dubai from time to time over the last two months.

儘管如此，Crown 在中東地區 3 月的出貨量較去年同期成長 19%，因我們在沙烏地阿拉伯與約旦的營運支援了阿聯酋。Crown 所有工廠仍維持運作，且材料供應充足。不過，基於安全考量，過去兩個月我們不時縮減杜拜的營運。

As Kevin just discussed, we've included a full-year $0.10 per share headwind with $0.05 a share in the second quarter and $0.05 a share in the second half to account for increased costs related to ocean freight, energy, and direct materials. We are also mindful of building inflationary pressure on consumers, although can demand remains strong globally, owing to its many favorable characteristics.

如 Kevin 剛才所述，我們已將全年每股 0.10 美元的不利影響納入考量，其中第二季每股 0.05 美元、下半年每股 0.05 美元，以反映海運運費、能源與直接材料相關成本上升。我們也留意到消費者面臨的通膨壓力正在累積，儘管如此，因鋁罐具備多項有利特性，全球罐需求仍維持強勁。

Turning to the operating segments, in Americas Beverage, sales increased by 16% in the quarter, primarily reflecting the pass-through of higher material costs. Unit volumes in the Americas were up 1% to the prior year first quarter, with North America up 1% and Brazil down 5%.

就營運部門而言，美洲飲料罐本季銷售額成長 16%，主要反映較高材料成本的轉嫁。美洲地區單位銷量較去年第一季成長 1%，其中北美成長 1%，巴西下滑 5%。

Income was down about 10% in the quarter, in line with expectations owing to volume mix effects, Q1 cost timing, and higher cost inputs not recovered through our contractual pricing formula. We do expect the delta to prior year to narrow significantly in the second quarter.

本季部門獲利約下滑 10%，符合預期，原因在於銷量組合效應、第一季成本時點因素，以及部分較高投入成本未能透過合約定價公式回收。我們預期與去年同期的差距將在第二季顯著縮小。

The aluminum beverage can market in North America is steadily growing across multiple categories due to new product launches and convenient packaging. We expect strengthening demand into what should be a very tight hand supply situation this summer with our current full-year growth estimate unchanged at 2% to 3%.

北美鋁製飲料罐市場在多個品類中穩定成長，受惠於新品上市與便利包裝。我們預期需求將持續增強；今年夏天在供應非常吃緊的情況下，全年成長預估仍維持不變，為 2% 至 3%。

In Brazil, we forecast second quarter volume to be down, with the full year showing modest volume growth. European beverage volumes advanced 7% in the quarter, with growth noted throughout Northwest and Southern Europe and the Gulf states, leading to a 28% increase in segment income. Capacity remains tight across Europe, again, leading to what should be a very tight can market this summer. As previously discussed, we have two expansion projects underway in both Greece and Spain to support future growth.

在巴西，我們預估第二季銷量將下滑，但全年將呈現溫和的銷量成長。歐洲飲料罐銷量本季成長 7%，西北歐、南歐以及海灣國家均見成長，帶動部門獲利成長 28%。歐洲整體產能仍然吃緊，因此今年夏天罐市場預期將非常緊俏。如先前所述，我們在希臘與西班牙各有兩項擴產專案進行中，以支持未來成長。

Income in Asia-Pacific advanced 10% in the quarter on the back of 17% unit volume gains. Growth was notable across Vietnam, Cambodia, and China as results from our commercial adjustment strategy combined with recent cost reduction programs begin to bear fruit. Volumes across transit packaging held up well during the first quarter with equipment, plastic strap, and film offsetting most of the declines in steel strap and protective.

亞太地區本季獲利成長 10%，主要受惠於單位銷量成長 17%。越南、柬埔寨與中國的成長尤為明顯，因我們的商業調整策略與近期成本削減計畫開始展現成效。運輸包材（transit packaging）方面，本季銷量表現穩健，設備、塑膠打包帶與薄膜的成長，抵銷了鋼帶與防護產品的大部分下滑。

Margins were down compared to the prior year as input cost inflation ran ahead of our price recovery. We do expect to begin to recover cost inflation in the second half of the year. First-quarter volumes in North American food cans advanced 3% and when combined with better results in food closures and beverage can equipment, income and other increased $18 million in the quarter.

由於投入成本通膨上升速度快於我們的價格回收，毛利率較去年同期下滑。我們預期將在下半年開始逐步回收成本通膨。北美食品罐第一季銷量成長 3%；再加上食品封蓋與飲料罐設備的較佳表現，本季獲利及其他項目合計增加 1,800 萬美元。

So just to recap, before opening the call to questions, global beverage volumes advanced 5% in the quarter, and demand looks to remain strong for the balance of the year despite inflationary pressures on consumers in what should be very tight market conditions across both North America and Europe. Food can volumes up 3%, following 5% growth in the prior year first quarter. Earnings per share up 11% and to $1.86. We returned in excess of $250 million to shareholders in the first quarter, and in the last 5 quarters, have repurchased approximately 6% of outstanding company common stock. The balance sheet remains strong. Cash flow is significant, which will allow for the continued return of value to shareholders.

在開放提問前簡要總結：本季全球飲料罐銷量成長 5%，儘管消費者面臨通膨壓力，在北美與歐洲市場供需預期非常吃緊的情況下，今年其餘期間需求看來仍將維持強勁。食品罐銷量成長 3%，延續去年第一季 5% 的成長。每股盈餘成長 11%，至 1.86 美元。我們第一季回饋股東超過 2.50 億美元；過去 5 個季度，我們已回購約 6% 的流通在外普通股。資產負債表仍然強健。現金流可觀，將使我們得以持續回饋股東價值。

And with that, Elle, I think we are now ready to take questions, please.

接下來，Elle，我想我們現在可以開始提問了，謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) George Staphos, Bank of America.

（接線員指示）美國銀行的 George Staphos。

Thank you. Hi, Tim. Hi, Tom. Hi, Kevin. I just want to give you a quick question first and congrats on the progress so far. The supply chain issues, as they were building, give you any volume opportunities? You pointed to in the release that you're able to leverage your network globally. All your peers have global networks too, but did any of that make for maybe some extra volume that you maybe weren't considering to start the year if some of your peers were having issues elsewhere?

謝謝。嗨，Tim。嗨，Tom。嗨，Kevin。我先問一個簡短問題，也恭喜你們目前的進展。供應鏈問題在逐步加劇的情況下，是否為你們帶來任何銷量機會？你們在新聞稿中提到能夠全球性地運用你們的網絡。你們的同業也都有全球網絡，但這是否讓你們獲得一些額外銷量——也就是在年初時可能沒有預期到的——例如若部分同業在其他地區遇到問題？

And then the volumes have been very strong. You talked about it being tied into the summer, and that's terrific. Having said that, you're coming off tough comps already. We had very strong growth in the fourth quarter. Are there any factors out there that would suggest maybe there's a little bit of pre-buying going on in terms of this volume demand? And then I had a follow-on.

另外，銷量一直非常強勁。你們提到這與夏季有關，這很棒。不過話說回來，你們已經面臨較具挑戰的比較基期；我們在第四季也有非常強勁的成長。外部是否有任何因素顯示，這波銷量需求可能存在一些提前拉貨（pre-buying）的情況？然後我還有一個追問。

Okay. So let me -- the first question, George, I think we feel pretty confident that the answer to your first question is not yet. That is -- if there is going to be a tight raw material supply situation vis-a-vis the aluminum supplier fire that is causing some aluminum disruption to some of our peers. If there is a benefit to that, we have not seen that as of yet. I think what I would characterize is that this was always going to be, I believe, a tight summer situation this in both North America and Europe, notwithstanding the North American aluminum outage.

好的。那我先——第一個問題，George，我想我們相當有信心，你第一個問題的答案目前還不是。也就是說——就鋁供應商火災導致鋁材供應中斷、進而使我們部分同業受到影響而言，如果因此會出現原材料供應緊張的情況。若這件事會帶來任何好處，我們截至目前尚未看到。我會這樣形容：我相信無論北美鋁材停供與否，今年夏天在北美與歐洲本來就會是一個供應偏緊的夏季。

So our network -- so -- we're all global -- well, careful how I say this, I don't mean this in the way it's going to sound. We're the only ones that are really global, Georgia, and that we have an Asian, a fairly large Asian footprint that we can supply and support other regions from when need be. And we will see that into the second and third quarter, depending on the length of the Middle East conflict and the straight or moves blockage where some suppliers cannot ship to India, we will pick up some cans into India from our operations in Southeast Asia. So that will occur potentially in Q2 and possibly even into Q3.

所以我們的網路——所以——我們都是全球性的——嗯，我得小心措辭，我不是要用聽起來那樣的意思。我們是唯一真正全球化的業者，Georgia，而且我們在亞洲有相當大的布局，必要時可以從亞洲供應並支援其他地區。我們會在第二季與第三季看到這一點，取決於中東衝突持續的時間，以及紅海／海峽或航道封鎖所造成的改道，導致部分供應商無法運往印度時，我們會從東南亞的營運據點增加供應一些罐子到印度。因此，這可能會在第二季發生，甚至可能延續到第三季。

So that would be one area. Now I think when we talked about leveraging the global network, it's more towards reflecting on the immediate circumstances and danger that was present in the United Arab Emirates and specifically in Dubai, where there is Crown and one other can manufacturer amongst a whole host of manufacturing companies that were threatened with drones and missile strikes.

所以那會是一個面向。現在我想，當我們談到運用全球網路時，更多是針對當下的情勢與風險做回應——當時在阿拉伯聯合大公國、特別是杜拜，存在立即的情勢與風險；那裡有 Crown 以及另一家製罐商，連同一大批製造業公司，都曾面臨無人機與飛彈攻擊的威脅。

So we were able to leverage from the other operations in the Middle East and -- and obviously, we're able to reroute and redirect aluminum supplies from Asia and or the Middle East or European suppliers in and out of the Middle East to other locations. So that was basis of that comment. And since I just spoke for so long, you're going to have to remind me your second question, I apologize.

因此我們能夠運用中東其他營運據點的產能——而且很明顯地，我們也能把鋁材供應從亞洲、或中東、或歐洲供應商，在中東區域內外進行改道與重新導向，送往其他地點。那就是那段評論的基礎。既然我講了這麼久，你得提醒我你的第二個問題是什麼，抱歉。

No worries. And I should have mentioned, I hope everyone is safe, both at Crown and your suppliers are when you circle with what's been going on in the Middle East. The question was, look, volumes have been strong for a while. Volumes were strong in the first quarter, up 5% globally. Any concerns on your side that this is pre-buying why, why not? And then I had a follow-on then I'll piggyback.

沒問題。而且我本來就該先提一下，希望 Crown 以及你們的供應商在中東目前的情勢下都平安。我的問題是：你看，出貨量已經強勁一段時間了。第一季出貨量也很強，全球年增 5%。你們這邊有沒有擔心這其實是提前拉貨（pre-buying）？為什麼有／為什麼沒有？然後我還有一個延伸問題，我再接著問。

Hard to know. You know the North American market, George, as well as we do. You can cover the space as long as we've been at Crown. The customers are -- you want to talk about just in time, they keep absolutely 0 inventory. So they basically receive deliveries from us and they go right into the can wash or into the filling line within minutes, right? We have 15-minute delivery windows that we're expected to deliver into. So they don't they don't get shut down.

很難知道。George，你對北美市場的了解不亞於我們。你在這個領域的資歷跟我們在 Crown 一樣久。客戶——如果你要談及時化（just in time），他們真的把庫存維持在絕對的零。也就是說，他們基本上從我們這裡收貨後，幾分鐘內就直接進到洗罐機或灌裝線，對吧？我們被要求在 15 分鐘的交貨時窗內送達，讓他們不會停線。

So I don't think there's a lot of prebuy because they don't keep a lot of -- they don't keep a lot of inventory and they've got direct delivery right to the stores. So, in Europe, could there be a little prebuy maybe with some of the beer customers, but again, the soft drink guys not keeping a lot of inventory. And the growth in Asia has been -- if we just take a step back and talk about Asia real quick. The growth there has been growth in Asia for the last several years, mid- to single high digit range. We elected not to participate in that for reasons around the value. got our cost structure where we want it.

所以我不認為有很多提前拉貨，因為他們不保有太多——他們不保有太多庫存，而且他們是直接配送到門店。所以在歐洲，可能在某些啤酒客戶那邊會有一點提前拉貨，但同樣地，汽水客戶也不保有太多庫存。至於亞洲的成長——如果我們退一步，快速談一下亞洲。過去幾年亞洲一直在成長，約在中個位數到高個位數的區間。我們先前基於價值（value）的考量選擇不參與。我們已把成本結構調整到我們想要的位置。

We think we have the lowest cost structure of any producer in Asia. And we think we're now well positioned to afford us a different commercial strategy, and that's what you saw in the first quarter. So I don't think there's been any prebuy. I could be wrong, there could be some on the margin, but nothing large enough, George, to move the needle.

我們認為我們在亞洲的成本結構是所有生產商中最低的。而我們也認為現在我們已具備很好的條件，能採取不同的商業策略，這就是你在第一季看到的。因此我不認為有任何提前拉貨。我可能會錯，邊際上或許有一些，但沒有大到足以影響整體數字，George。

A quick one, and I'll turn it over just to be fair. And I'll leave some other beverage cans for the rest of the team. On Signode, any green shoots at all? I know you said you suggested that the margin was a function of timing of pass-through relative to your cost inputs. And obviously, we'll take that at face value. you're seeing some pickup in volume. But when do you expect we're going to see along with green shoots kind of a pickup in margin there? Because that's ultimately trapped earnings at some point that could leverage to the benefit. Anyway, I'll turn it over there.

我再問一個簡短的，然後就交給其他人，公平起見。我也把其他飲料罐的問題留給團隊其他成員。關於 Signode，有沒有任何復甦的跡象（green shoots）？我知道你說過，你認為毛利率是因為轉嫁（pass-through）的時點相對於成本投入的時點所造成的結果。而且很顯然，我們會照字面接受這個說法。你也看到出貨量有些回升。但你預期什麼時候我們會看到毛利率也跟著出現一些復甦跡象、開始回升？因為那終究是被壓住的獲利，某個時間點可能會釋放出槓桿效益、帶來好處。總之，我先交給你。

Thanks for the question. So data January data looked pretty promising, although I saw consumer sentiment the other day. I don't know if it's University of Mission or who publishes it, but it was just dreadful. And I think the last two months are -- have been bad, and I think we're at the lowest level ever is what I read the other day. So having said that, volumes have held up fairly well on the commodity side, although there has been some margin squeeze on the equipment and tool side, where the margins are much higher. There has been volume lost over the last couple of years.

謝謝你的問題。所以一月的數據看起來相當有希望，雖然我前幾天看到消費者信心指數——我不確定是密西根大學（University of Michigan）還是誰發布的——但真的很糟。我想過去兩個月——表現都很差，而且我前幾天讀到的是，我們處在史上最低水準。話雖如此，大宗商品端的量還撐得不錯，雖然在設備與工具端出現了一些毛利率擠壓，而那邊的毛利率本來高得多。過去幾年那邊的量也流失了一些。

Now in the month of April, we have seen order inflows at much higher rates, 10% to 20% higher than this time last year. that typically takes about 90 days for it to manifest itself into delivery. So we are hopeful. I don't tell you that because I'm promising you anything. But if we're looking for a green shoot order orders received in the month of April looked pretty promising across equipment and tools. So we're hopeful for a stronger third and fourth quarter.

而在四月份，我們看到訂單流入（order inflows）的增速高很多，比去年同期高出 10% 到 20%。通常大約需要 90 天才會反映到交付上。所以我們抱持希望。我告訴你這些不是在承諾任何事情。但如果我們在找復甦跡象，那四月份收到的訂單在設備與工具兩端看起來都相當不錯。所以我們希望第三季與第四季會更強。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

Jefferies 的 Phil Ng。

Tim, you mentioned the bev can market is going to be quite tight in the summer months in North America and Europe. Certainly, there's some supply chain dynamics at large. How comfortable are you in terms of meeting that demand if the market comes in a little better than, call it, low single-digit growth in the U.S. as well as Europe, give us some context or ability to potentially meet that demand?

Tim，你提到北美與歐洲的飲料罐市場在夏季月份會相當吃緊。整體供應鏈當然也有一些動態變化。若市場表現比你們預期的更好——比如說，美國與歐洲不只是低個位數成長——你們在滿足需求方面有多大把握？能否給我們一些背景或脈絡，說明你們可能如何滿足那樣的需求？

Well, we're only because it's early in the year. And. As I said, we're mindful of the inflationary pressure building on the consumer. We've left our growth expectations for volume in North America at 2% to 3%. We certainly have certain room to do a little better than that. I'd like to wait to see how the second quarter unfolds and how the consumer reacts to what they're faced with, which is higher energy across the board, whether it's their home heating and electric bill for air conditioning and other gasoline build. So we can go a little bit above 2% to 3%.

嗯，我們之所以——是因為現在還在年初。而且，如我所說，我們留意到消費者面臨的通膨壓力正在累積。我們仍維持北美出貨量成長 2% 到 3% 的預期。我們當然有一定空間可以做得比這更好一些。我想先觀察第二季的發展，以及消費者對他們所面臨情況的反應——也就是全面更高的能源成本，不論是居家供暖、空調用電帳單，或是汽油帳單。所以我們可以略高於 2% 到 3%。

But let's be clear, Phil, we have limitations as well. We, like every other can supplier, have a limited amount of capacity. And if the market those gangbusters, which feels very strong now. When you look at the categories over the last 52 weeks, with the exception of beer in cans, beer is only down 1.1%. Every other category is up low to mid-single digits with the exception of energy, which is up almost 20%. So it feels like the consumers -- and then our customers recognizing that the consumers favor the positive characteristics that they can, things are really positive for the can right now. But we do have limitations, but we'll do our best to sell every can we can at the right price and satisfy the market. Certainly, contract customers come before spot customers.

但 Phil，我們也要講清楚，我們同樣有產能限制。我們跟其他所有製罐供應商一樣，產能是有限的。如果市場真的大爆發——目前感覺確實很強。你看過去 52 週各品類的表現，除了罐裝啤酒之外，啤酒只下滑 1.1%。其他每個品類都是低到中個位數成長，只有能量飲料例外，成長接近 20%。所以感覺消費者——而且我們的客戶也認知到消費者偏好罐裝的正面特性，現在對罐子來說確實非常正向。但我們確實有產能限制，不過我們會盡最大努力，以合適的價格賣出我們能賣的每一個罐子並滿足市場需求。當然，合約客戶會優先於現貨客戶。

Okay. The reason why I asked is because -- I mean, your volumes for looked a little muted. Certainly, you got tougher comps in Brazil. But it sounds like you have the runway to support that demand as we kind of think about how the year unfolds in March and April? How have transaction been trending? Whether it's North America, Europe and Asia, Middle East, I mean, certainly a lot of uncertainty on the macro front.

好的。我之所以這樣問，是因為——我的意思是，你們的出貨量展望看起來有點保守。當然，巴西的比較基期也更具挑戰。但聽起來你們有空間去支撐那樣的需求；當我們思考三月、四月這段時間、以及今年接下來的走勢時，交易（transaction）趨勢如何？不論是北美、歐洲、亞洲、中東——宏觀面當然有很多不確定性。

We've got off to a slow start in January. I mean, the month of March, I think, was the highest shipment month ever. for the company, which is surprising that happened in March, like a May month. Yesterday was our highest shipment day ever in the industry of the company. This is North America. So things are things are pretty firm right now. March was a strong month and April is going to be maybe not as strong as March, but April typically is a soft month, and it's going to be a strong month. Brazil, we had a difficult comp. I think we were up like 11% last year in the first quarter in Brazil.

我們在一月的開局比較慢。我是說，我認為三月是公司史上出貨量最高的月份。令人意外的是，這發生在三月，有點像通常會出現在五月的情況。昨天是公司在北美市場史上單日出貨量最高的一天。所以目前整體情況相當穩健。三月表現強勁，而四月可能不會像三月那麼強，但四月通常是相對偏淡的月份，不過今年四月仍會是一個強勁的月份。巴西方面，我們面臨較難的比較基期。我記得去年第一季在巴西大概成長了約11%。

And not to place too much on the comp because I do think conditions in Brazil are different than conditions in North America right now. I think the Brazilian consumer not as resilient as the North American consumer. So I think we are post Carnival and getting into their winter months. We'll see how the market in Brazil reacts. And hopefully, the Brazilians and the Mexicans go deep into the tournament. We're pulling for both the Mexicans and the Brazilians to go as deep as possible, that will be really positive for can demand in both of those countries. And even in even among the Hispanic and broader Latino population across the United States.

而且也不要把太多重點放在比較基期上，因為我確實認為巴西的市場狀況和目前北美的狀況不同。我認為巴西消費者的韌性不如北美消費者。所以我想他們剛過完嘉年華，接著進入冬季月份。我們會看看巴西市場會如何反應。也希望巴西隊和墨西哥隊能在錦標賽走得更遠。我們希望墨西哥和巴西都能盡可能打進更深的輪次，這對兩國的罐裝需求都會非常正面。甚至也會帶動美國境內西語裔以及更廣泛拉丁裔族群的需求。

Got it. And one last quick one for me. You talked about how -- just given some of the supply chain in Asia, that could be an opportunity for you shipping into places like India. Certainly, that could be an uplift on demand. Is there anything we should be mindful in terms of costs associated with that? Is that something you pass on to the consumer and that would be accretive to EBITDA and EBITDA margins? Or how should we think about that opportunity? that could be a good guide 2Q and 3Q?

了解。最後我再快速問一個。你提到，考量亞洲供應鏈的一些情況，這可能會成為你們把產品運到像印度這類市場的機會，當然這可能會推升需求。那在成本方面，有沒有什麼我們需要留意的？這些成本是你們會轉嫁給消費者，並且對EBITDA與EBITDA利潤率有增益嗎？或者我們應該如何看待這個機會？這是否能作為第二季與第三季的良好指引？

Yes. Listen, I think if you sell more cans, you're going to make more income, right? You're going to make more earnings, more EBITDA percentages move around a little bit, as you know, with the pass-through of higher material costs. So you always have the denominator effect. But we -- if there's an opportunity for us to ship 10 million cans into the Middle East from Thailand or Cambodia, Vietnam. And the customers need support, we're ready and able to do that.

是的。聽著，我認為如果你賣出更多罐子，你就會賺更多收入，對吧？你會有更多獲利、更多EBITDA；至於EBITDA百分比會如你所知，因為較高材料成本的轉嫁而有些變動，所以分母效應一直都在。但如果我們有機會從泰國或柬埔寨、越南向中東出貨1,000萬個罐子，而客戶需要支援，我們已準備好、也有能力去做。

Ghansham Panjabi, RW Baird.

Ghansham Panjabi，RW Baird。

Tim, just going back to commodity costs. Obviously, a big increase in oil and aluminum and pretty much everything else over the last couple of months. It sounds like you're still embedding a pretty intact volume outlook for 2026 apart from what you called out in the Middle East. But last time we had inflation a few years back, it was very tough for your end markets and the developed markets in particular. So I guess what gives you confidence in the implied resilience this go around? I know there's some distortion with the World Cup. But then the emerging market consumer, I would have to imagine is much more sensitive to fuel prices, et cetera. So just going back to the question on confidence on volumes.

Tim，我想回到大宗商品成本。很明顯，過去幾個月油價、鋁價以及幾乎所有東西都大幅上漲。聽起來除了你提到的中東因素之外，你們對2026年的出貨量展望仍大致維持不變。但上一次幾年前通膨上來時，你們的終端市場、尤其是已開發市場，承受的壓力非常大。所以我想問，這次你們對隱含的需求韌性有什麼信心來源？我知道世界盃會造成一些扭曲。但新興市場消費者我想對燃油價格等因素會更敏感。所以回到對出貨量信心的問題。

Yes. So the big inflation that we have right now is principally in North America, it owes to the Midwest premium. We don't see that as much in that level of inflation in Asia and Europe. But your question is a good question. It's why we left our volume expectation unchanged from what we provided to you in February. We're always mindful of this. And you're right, it was the second half of 2022.

是的。所以我們現在看到的大幅通膨主要在北美，主要來自美國中西部溢價（Midwest premium）。在亞洲和歐洲，我們沒有看到同等程度的通膨。但你的問題問得很好。這也是為什麼我們把出貨量預期維持在二月提供給你們的水準。我們一直都會留意這點。你說得對，那次是在2022年下半年。

Kevin and I went back when we looked at it, the big shot then was there was a rapid increase in LME from, let's say, 2,500 to 4,000 a ton. The LME has been more or less bouncing around 3,200 to 3,500 right now, it's been really the Midwest premium that's kind of in the proxy to absorb the tariffs. But having said that, as you've said, and as we've said earlier, pressure on the consumer from broader inflation and specifically energy-related inflation is there. But I just -- what we see right now, what we're feeling right now what the customers are asking for right now, at least through the end of the second quarter, it doesn't look like it's going to slow down now. If your question is, could we have a shock like we had in the third quarter of '22. Anything is possible. It just doesn't feel like it's going to happen this year.

Kevin和我回頭看時，當時最大的衝擊是LME價格快速上升，例如從每噸2,500美元漲到4,000美元。現在LME大致在3,200到3,500之間震盪，真正上升比較多的是中西部溢價，某種程度上是用來吸收關稅的替代指標。但話說回來，正如你所說、也如我們先前所說，整體通膨、尤其是能源相關通膨，確實對消費者造成壓力。不過就我們目前看到的、目前感受到的、以及客戶目前提出的需求來看，至少到第二季末，看起來並不會放緩。如果你的問題是：會不會像2022年第三季那樣出現衝擊？任何事都有可能。但目前感覺今年不太會發生。

Sorry, go ahead. Go ahead. Yes. No, I was just going to ask for the nonreportable segment, the step function in profitability. Was there anything onetime-ish that drove that? I know you called out strength in beverage can equipment and also North American food cans. And then finally, on India, can you just frame how big the market is from a unit standpoint and your current position in context of the greenfield capacity you announced.

抱歉，你繼續。你繼續。是的。不，我只是想問一下，關於「未申報（non-reportable）」部門獲利能力的階梯式提升，是不是有任何一次性因素推動？我知道你提到飲料罐設備的強勁表現，以及北美食品罐。最後，關於印度，你能否從單位數量的角度說明市場規模，以及你們目前的地位，並放在你們宣布的新建（greenfield）產能背景下來看？

So the market roughly 4 billion to 5 billion units and growing 15% to 20% per year. We supply very little into the market right now. We used to -- before there were can plants there, we supply them most of the entire market from Dubai, but -- so we have very little supply other than what we're shipping in now from Asia to cover some of the Middle Eastern supply. And then we're adding 2.2 billion units over a couple of years here. So with a large customer under contract already. So we feel pretty good about that market. Was there a first part of the question that I missed?

所以那個市場大約是40億到50億個單位，且每年成長15%到20%。我們目前供應到該市場的量非常少。以前——在當地還沒有罐廠之前——我們從杜拜供應了幾乎整個市場，但——所以除了我們現在從亞洲出貨、用來補足部分中東供應之外，我們幾乎沒有其他供應。接著我們會在未來幾年新增22億個單位的產能。而且已經有一個大型客戶簽約在手。所以我們對那個市場感覺相當不錯。我是不是漏掉了你問題的第一部分？

Non-reportable step function.

未申報部門的階梯式提升。

Non-reportable. I'm sorry. Bed can equipment, I think we tripled the income in the quarter compared to last year, albeit off a lower base. Food cans again, as I said, growing 3% and utilizing more capacity, and we had some new -- we brought new capacity on over the last several years, so utilizing that new capacity and a really balanced mix among seasonal vegetables, nonseasonal human food and pet food making up 40% to 45% of our mix nowadays. So a really good mix. And then food closures.

未申報部門。抱歉。飲料罐設備方面，我認為本季的收益相較去年成長了三倍，雖然是從較低基期起算。食品罐方面，如我所說，成長3%，產能利用率提高；而且我們過去幾年新增了一些產能，所以現在是在利用那些新增產能；同時在產品組合上也非常均衡——季節性蔬菜、非季節性人用食品，以及寵物食品，如今合計占我們組合的40%到45%。所以組合非常好。然後還有食品封蓋（food closures）。

Surprisingly, food closures performing quite well among nutraceuticals, other nutrition drinks and some human food. If you think about condiments and Charles, things like that. So spread out, could there have been some minor one-off, maybe not much more than a handful gosh, if you're trying to understand the impact of metal carryover, maybe a handful, if even that, not that much.

令人意外的是，食品封蓋在保健營養品（nutraceuticals）、其他營養飲品以及部分人用食品方面表現相當好。你如果想到調味品和——以及像那類的東西。整體分布很廣。是否有一些小型的一次性因素？可能有，但不多，頂多就是少數幾項；如果你想了解金屬成本結轉（metal carryover）的影響，可能也就是少數幾項，甚至不到那個程度，沒有那麼多。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

Chris Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

Given all the moving parts in Asia over the last few years, and I know you've dramatically improved your operating base. Can you just give us kind of some insights on how you think about the sustainability of the inflection on a go-forward basis? It seems like there's still some mixed results on a country-by-country basis, but I'd love to hear your perspectives.

考量過去幾年亞洲有這麼多變動，而且我知道你們已大幅改善營運基礎。你能否分享一些你們如何看待未來這個轉折（inflection）可持續性的觀點？看起來各國之間仍有一些好壞參半的結果，但我很想聽聽你們的看法。

Well, I don't know that we have any mixed results on a country-by-country basis. Volumes are were strong throughout the division. The segment rather, particularly strong in Cambodia in China, as I mentioned. We have a number of large customers that we're partnered with some in joint ventures, some not in joint ventures. As I said in February, we agreed among all of us here at Crown that we were going to take on a new commercial adjustment strategy to go out and grab more volume, and it seems to have worked. There's been a fair amount of consolidation among the Chinese beverage can suppliers.

嗯，我不確定我們在各國之間有任何好壞參半的結果。整個事業部——更準確地說是該分部——的出貨量都很強勁，尤其是我提到的柬埔寨和中國特別強。我們與多家大型客戶合作，其中一些是合資企業，一些不是合資。如我在二月所說，我們Crown內部一致同意採取新的商業調整策略，走出去爭取更多出貨量，而看起來確實奏效了。中國飲料罐供應商之間也出現了相當程度的整併。

So it does appear that there is a slight firming in China right now and we'll see how that progresses. But as I said to Ghansham's question, there's been growth in Asia for the last several years. We've elected by and large, not to participate in that because it was at prices that we said were not worth participating. That has changed a little bit. And so now we're participating again. Keeping in mind we make 16% to 17% operating income. It's a pretty healthy segment for us.

所以目前看起來中國的市場確實有些微轉強，我們會看看後續如何發展。但如我對Ghansham的問題所說，亞洲過去幾年一直在成長。我們大體上選擇不參與，因為當時的價格我們認為不值得參與。這情況有些改變了，所以我們現在又重新參與。別忘了我們的營業利益率有16%到17%，對我們來說這是一個相當健康的分部。

So I'm always -- I saw your note, Chris earlier in the week. I'm always when people say they're disappointed when we're making 17% in the packaging industry, most packagers would like that. So that is a division that we're -- we have high hopes for and we continue to support and we think it will continue to be a really good asset for the company into the future.

所以我一直——我本週稍早看到你的備註，Chris。當人們說他們很失望，而我們在包裝產業做到 17% 的利潤時，我總是覺得，多數包裝業者都會很樂意有這樣的表現。所以這是一個我們——我們寄予厚望的事業部，我們也會持續支持，我們認為它未來仍會是公司非常好的資產。

Great. And just as a follow-up, obviously, you've gone through your expansions in Brazil, Greece, Spain, India. And at the same time, it seems like the developed market side of it, the U.S. and broadly in Western Europe, still seems pretty tight. Are there any other aspirations in terms of adding additional lines that you're considering? Is now the right time? Do you foresee others kind of taking the progress just given the constructive SD through the end of the decade? Just any quick percentages on that, and then I'll be happy to pass it over.

很好。再追問一下，顯然你們已經在巴西、希臘、西班牙、印度完成擴產。同時，看起來已開發市場這一端——美國以及更廣泛的西歐——仍然相當吃緊。你們是否還有其他在新增產線方面的想法正在考慮？現在是合適的時點嗎？鑑於到本十年末供需（SD）仍偏建設性，你是否預期其他人也會加快進度？如果可以的話，給一些大概的百分比，然後我就把時間交出去。

So we -- as you rightly point out, we have -- with Greece and Spain, we have some Western European expansion. Obviously, that's not Northwest, but it is Western Europe if you will, Spain is Western Europe. Very brief is Southwest Europe. And Brazil, North America, I guess your question is probably more specific around North America. At this time, we do not see the need for Crown to expand capacity in North America. That obviously could change depending on the market and specific circumstances, but the time being, no.

所以我們——如你所正確指出的，我們已經——透過希臘與西班牙，我們在西歐有一些擴產。當然那不是西北歐，但如果你要這麼說，它確實是西歐；西班牙是西歐。非常簡短地說，是西南歐。還有巴西、北美——我想你的問題可能更聚焦在北美。就目前而言，我們看不到 Crown 需要在北美擴充產能的必要性。當然，這可能會因市場與特定情況而改變，但就目前來看，不需要。

Matt Roberts, Raymond James and Societe.

Matt Roberts，Raymond James 與 Societe。

Tim, Kevin on -- on Americas segment income, for 1Q, could you help parse out what was a function of lower volumes in Brazil versus weather in North America versus general inflationary pressures? And on those inflationary pressures, how does 2Q compared to what you saw in 1Q in Americas? And how quickly are you able to offset those raws pressures with regards to freight, energy or coatings?

Tim、Kevin，關於美洲事業的部門收入，針對第一季（1Q），你們能否協助拆解一下：其中哪些是巴西出貨量下降所致、哪些是北美天氣因素、哪些是一般性的通膨壓力？另外，關於這些通膨壓力，第二季（2Q）相較第一季在美洲的情況如何？以及你們能多快把這些原物料壓力——例如運費、能源或塗料——轉嫁／抵銷掉？

Yes. So you're generally well aware of the formula price we use using PPI as a proxy to recover our nonmetal costs on an annual basis. And PPI has been somewhat benign. The PPI adjuster has been somewhat benign over the last couple of years. So a little bit of a building pressure that perhaps last year, we spurred away from it, but this year, kind of call it. We kind of knew this was going to get us this year.

是的。所以你大致上很清楚，我們使用以 PPI 作為代理指標的公式定價，按年度回收我們的非金屬成本。而 PPI 一直相對溫和。過去幾年 PPI 調整因子也相對溫和。因此壓力有一點累積；也許去年我們把它壓下去了，但今年——可以這麼說——我們大概知道今年會反映出來。

And so you've got labor goes up every year. You've got the coatings fellows are facing pressure all the time. Especially right now with the Middle East crisis. Warehousing costs for us in the first quarter this year, about a handful or a touch more only as we try to warehouse more cans early on to meet what we expect to be strong summer demand. We had a little situation -- a little timing situation whereby we use some Chinese metal in some locations and the Chinese government in January or February of last year, removed the VAT refund on exported aluminum. So we had 1 or 2 months comparison this year that we didn't have last year.

然後每年勞動成本都會上升。塗料供應商一直都面臨壓力，尤其是現在有中東危機。對我們而言，今年第一季的倉儲成本增加了大約一些——大概一小把或略多一點——因為我們嘗試在年初先多備一些罐子，以滿足我們預期強勁的夏季需求。我們還有一個小狀況——一個時點上的狀況：我們在某些地點使用一些中國金屬，而中國政府在去年一月或二月取消了出口鋁材的增值稅（VAT）退稅。因此今年有 1 到 2 個月的比較基期，是去年沒有的。

And then as you point out, the mix, obviously, depending on the customer and depending on the size of the can, the profit mix in Brazil sometimes is a little better than the profit mix in North America. So it's a whole bunch of things. And to the second part of your question, as we said in the prepared remarks, we will significantly reduce the delta between last year and this year, the second quarter. maybe not fully, but it certainly won't be $26 million.

再如你所指出的，產品組合也有影響；顯然取決於客戶、也取決於罐型尺寸，巴西的利潤組合有時會比北美的利潤組合更好。所以這是很多因素加總。至於你問題的第二部分，正如我們在事先準備的講稿中所說，我們會在第二季大幅縮小去年與今年之間的差距；也許不會完全消除，但肯定不會是 2,600 萬美元。

I don't know if you want to quantify, but maybe take -- the January, February winter cost headwinds, was there a certain amount in 1Q from that?

我不知道你是否願意量化，但也許談一下——一、二月冬季成本逆風，那在第一季大概影響了多少？

I'm not sure I want to quantify anything. I would tell you that January volumes are down about 6%. And I think February volumes were up a few percent as well. So it was a tough few weeks in there where we had difficulty transporting. We had difficulty getting our own people to factories.

我不確定我想量化任何東西。我可以告訴你，一月的出貨量大約下降 6%。我想二月的出貨量則上升了幾個百分點。所以那幾週確實很艱難，我們在運輸上有困難，也很難讓我們自己的人到工廠。

Makes sense. And if I could sneak one more in quickly. Kevin, share repurchases, I think that was -- I think you said 600 ml, I believe is $650 million before -- any change there? Is that future CapEx in regard to India? Just linking some more dry better anything that.

了解。如果我可以再快速塞一個問題。Kevin，庫藏股回購，我想那是——我想你說的是 6 億美元，我記得是 6.5 億美元之前——那邊有任何變動嗎？那會是未來與印度相關的資本支出（CapEx）嗎？只是想把一些更乾的資訊串起來，看看是否有任何關聯。

No change. It really -- the number is approximately $600 million. We have a little room to go higher than that. So it was just put a number out there, Matt, so no change.

沒有變動。其實——那個數字大約是 6 億美元。我們還有一點空間可以比那更高一些。所以只是先把一個數字講出來，Matt，沒有變動。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi Group.

Anthony Pettinari，花旗集團（Citi Group）。

Good morning, hey. With the $0.10 hit from the Middle East, is that primarily hitting your Europe segment where I guess those assets sit, or is it sort of spread across the company?

早安，嗨。關於中東因素造成的每股 0.10 美元衝擊，這主要是打到你們的歐洲事業部（因為我猜那些資產在那裡），還是分散在公司各處？

And then, is there any kind of assumptions around you talked about ocean freight, energy, direct materials, those costs staying at current levels, maybe the conflict resolving at some point? And then maybe coming down or maybe going up further, I'm just wondering if there's any kind of color you can give around sort of the assumptions around that $0.10.

另外，你們是否有任何假設：你提到的海運運費、能源、直接材料等成本會維持在目前水準，或是衝突在某個時間點解決後可能下降，或甚至可能再上升？我只是想了解，你們對那每股 0.10 美元的假設大概是什麼，可否提供一些說明。

Most of it will be in the European segment. Depending on ocean freight, we could have $0.01 in the United States as we bring metal into the United States -- in the parts of the Americas business, not the United States, but parts of the Americas business from China. And certainly, ocean freight as it relates to the Asian business because we do move cans and materials around Asia as well. So -- and then energy, if you think about diesel and some of the industrial gases, LPG, LNG, et cetera, into Asia. Many of the markets are subsidized where there's little impact to us, but there are some markets that are not subsidized. So we have forecast a bit of a headwind in the Asian, maybe $0.01 or $0.02 in Asia as well.

大部分會在歐洲事業部。視海運運費而定，當我們把金屬運進美國時——在美洲業務的某些部分（不是美國本土，而是美洲業務的部分地區）從中國進口——美國那邊可能會有每股 0.01 美元的影響。當然，海運運費也與亞洲業務相關，因為我們也會在亞洲各地移動罐子與材料。所以——再來是能源，如果你想到柴油以及一些工業氣體、LPG、LNG 等進入亞洲。許多市場有補貼，對我們影響不大，但也有一些市場沒有補貼。因此我們也預估亞洲會有一些逆風，亞洲可能也會有每股 0.01 或 0.02 美元的影響。

Got it. Got it. And just generally, I mean, directionally, you expect these costs to maintain at current levels towards the end of the year or some relief for?

了解、了解。那整體而言，就方向性來看，你們預期這些成本會在今年底前維持在目前水準，還是會有一些緩解？

Well, I think you're our leading assumption is probably correct that even if the conflict resolves itself, we're going to see elevated costs for some period of time. And we will Obviously, we're working on plans right now to minimize the cost and/or share costs with customers right now. But your assumption is correct. Costs will remain elevated for some period of time. They will ultimately fall back depending on demand and industrial activity, but we like you expecting the remain elevated.

嗯，我想你提出的主要假設大概是對的：即使衝突自行解決，我們仍會在一段時間內看到成本維持在較高水準。我們當然也正在制定計畫，盡量把成本降到最低，並／或目前就與客戶分攤成本。但你的假設是正確的：成本會在一段時間內維持偏高。最終會不會回落，取決於需求與工業活動，但我們跟你一樣預期它會在一段時間內維持偏高。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then just one quick one on nonreportable. You obviously had a really strong first half or first 4Q, 1Q in North American food cans. And you talked about some of the reasons behind that with pet food and growing faster in the market. As you look to the second half, do those comps get tougher? Or is there anything from like a timing perspective? I'm just wondering the sort of the trajectory in North American food cans. And if you lap any kind of customer wins or if there's anything we should be mindful of in terms of modeling that maybe more in the back half of the year?

了解、了解。這很有幫助。再一個關於「未列報（nonreportable）」的快速問題。你們在北美食品罐第一個半年或前四季、第一季表現非常強勁。你也談到其中一些原因，例如寵物食品成長更快、跑贏市場。展望下半年，這些比較基期會變得更具挑戰嗎？或是有任何時點因素？我想了解北美食品罐的走勢。以及你們是否會遇到任何客戶贏單的比較基期，或有什麼我們在建模時需要留意、可能更多落在下半年（back half of the year）的事項？

Yes, I don't think there's any notable customer wins on the food can side or the closure side, I think it's -- we have two customers that are growing. So they have wins and because they're crown contract punters we buy default, get their now. That will -- good question. Second quarter, I think we expect earnings and other be up in the second quarter and maybe the comps get a little bit more difficult in Q3 and Q4. So you're not likely to see the big outperformance in Q3 and Q4 that you see in Q1 and then a little smaller in Q2.

是的，我不認為在食品罐或瓶蓋（closure）那邊有任何特別顯著的客戶贏單。我想是——我們有兩個客戶在成長。所以他們有贏單，而因為他們是 Crown 的合約客戶，我們基本上會自動承接他們現在的需求。這會——好問題。第二季我想我們預期「其他」的獲利會在第二季上升，而到了第三季與第四季（Q3、Q4）比較基期可能會變得更困難。所以你不太可能在第三季與第四季看到像第一季那樣的大幅超預期表現；第二季會小一些。

Josh Spector, UBS.

Josh Spector，瑞銀（UBS）。

It's Anojja Shah sitting in for Josh. Got FCA's question, we're seeing fertilizer prices increasing quite significantly this year right ahead of planting season. What does that mean for the pack season this year? Do you think that means the yield the bill plant less and have less of a yield this year?

我是 Anojja Shah，代 Josh 出席。延續 FCA 的問題，我們看到今年肥料價格在播種季前大幅上漲。這對今年的包裝季（pack season）意味著什麼？你認為這會不會代表農民會少種一些，導致今年產量較低？

Well, they'll plant as much as they think they can sell and they'll play as much as what the demand from the retail or the wholesale markets tell them that they have to plan. I don't know -- to be honest with you, I don't know if they hedge fertilizer or not. But I do think I do think we're going to see a stronger period of food can and at on consumption here as inflation begins to pull up the consumer. So as President Obama said, maybe sign people start eating their peas again. So one of my favorite lines from President Obama. So I don't think that our customers will necessarily plant less. They are, by and large, the food industry has become much healthier over the last decade consolidation to help them do that. They are broadly specialized among certain kinds of vegetables, soup, pet food. I mean, pet food, again, fertilizer has something a little do with that food not much. But -- so I don't think they're going to plant list, no.

嗯，他們會種植他們認為能賣得出去的量，並且會依照零售或批發市場的需求告訴他們必須如何規劃來安排種植。我不知道——老實說，我不知道他們是否會對肥料進行避險。但我確實認為，隨著通膨開始推升消費者，我們將會看到罐裝食品與外食（在外用餐）消費出現一段更強勁的時期。所以就像歐巴馬總統說的，也許人們會開始又吃起他們的豌豆。那是我最喜歡的歐巴馬總統名言之一。所以我不認為我們的客戶一定會少種。他們大致上——食品產業在過去十年透過整併變得健康得多，這也幫助他們做到這點。他們在某些類別上有廣泛的專業化，例如特定種類的蔬菜、湯品、寵物食品。我的意思是，寵物食品——再說一次，肥料跟那個食物有一點關係，但不多。但——所以我不認為他們會少種，不會。

Okay. That's helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。

And then just a one thing I would say is that if you're hearing that in the market, you follow the cattle cycle. You know the cattle cycle is at a 75-year low, principally because of drought conditions in the Midwest. So when we talk about human food versus feed grains and feedstocks, there could be a different difference on how much feedstock is planted versus human stock.

另外我想說的一點是，如果你在市場上聽到那樣的說法，你可以去看牛隻週期。你知道牛隻週期處在 75 年來的低點，主要是因為美國中西部的乾旱狀況。所以當我們談到人類食品相對於飼料穀物與飼料原料時，飼料原料的種植量與供人食用的作物種植量，可能會有不同的差異。

And then switching over to Mexico. Can you just talk about -- I think your volumes just backing into were probably pretty strong in which is a little surprising to me because they just put that second sugar tax in. Maybe we could just get an update on what happened in Mexico in Q1 and then what you're expecting for the rest of the year?

接著切換到墨西哥。你能不能談一下——我想你們的量倒推回去應該相當強，這讓我有點意外，因為他們剛剛又加了第二個糖稅。也許我們可以更新一下墨西哥第一季發生了什麼，以及你們對今年剩餘時間的預期？

So I think we're -- Mexico up about 4% in the first quarter, kind of expecting a flatter year, to be honest with you. So we'll see how the year those both glass and metal did well with cans up 4%. But we are currently modeling Mexico to be flat year-over-year.

所以我認為我們——墨西哥第一季大約成長 4%，老實說，我們原本預期全年會比較持平。所以我們再看看今年的走勢；玻璃與金屬兩邊表現都不錯，罐裝成長 4%。但我們目前對墨西哥的模型是年對年持平。

And the figures?

那數字呢？

We're hopefully a better supplier in Mexico.

我們希望在墨西哥成為更好的供應商。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan，RBC 資本市場。

I guess I apologize if I missed this, but maybe you guys can offer your thoughts on the tariffs and the potential impact, especially the 232 tariffs. Just wondering, I know that you guys have already absorbed some of the -- or the Midwest premium has already kind of increased the cost of the can, but any further impacts you expect here from -- and then also on the steel side, is there any impact there that would potentially impact food and aerosol. And how do you see that playing out as far as demand?

我想如果我漏聽了先道歉，但也許你們可以談談你們對關稅及其潛在影響的看法，特別是 232 關稅。我想問的是，我知道你們已經吸收了一些——或者說中西部溢價已經在某種程度上提高了罐子的成本，但你們預期接下來還會有任何進一步的影響嗎？另外在鋼材端，是否有任何可能影響食品與噴霧罐（aerosol）的影響？你們認為這對需求會如何發展？

I mean, other than the Supreme Court striking down some of the liberation day tariffs 232 and 301 are largely unchanged, right? So demand remains pretty strong in both food cans and beverage. So I don't see any near-term impact. Tariffs, generally, my feeling about cars, they're not helpful. It's a distortion. The administration is picking one industry over several other industries to be a winner. If they think we're saving 300 at a steel mill or they're putting at risk 50,000 jobs across a whole host of other industries. So not helpful.

我的意思是，除了最高法院推翻了一些「解放日」關稅之外，232 和 301 基本上沒有太大變化，對吧？所以食品罐與飲料罐的需求仍然相當強勁。我看不到任何短期影響。一般來說，關稅——我對關稅的感覺就像對汽車一樣——它們沒有幫助。它是一種扭曲。政府是在讓某一個產業相對於其他幾個產業成為贏家。如果他們認為在鋼廠保住 300 個工作，卻讓一大堆其他產業的 50,000 個工作面臨風險。這沒有幫助。

But it is what it is, and we dealt with this in the first Trump administration, and we'll deal with it again. It's a poor policy by any measure. So but I don't think he's going to listen to a CEO a company if he's going to listen to anybody. So -- but we sold on. The good thing for us is that the he can -- if you think about frucans, still offers the best bargain, the best benefit, some of the highest nutrition levels of any packaged food or fresh food to the consumer. Especially in times of inflation. So we feel good about the product and the product line we're in. And only the beverage can side, I think, by and large, younger generations are embracing the can.

但現實就是如此；我們在第一個川普政府時期處理過，現在也會再處理一次。以任何標準來看，這都是糟糕的政策。不過我不認為他會聽一家公司的 CEO 的意見——如果他會聽任何人的話。所以——但我們會繼續往前。對我們來說好的一點是——如果你想想罐裝水果（frucans），它仍然能為消費者提供最划算的選擇、最好的效益，以及在任何包裝食品或新鮮食品中都屬於最高的營養水準之一，尤其是在通膨時期。所以我們對我們的產品以及所處的產品線感到有信心。而在飲料罐這一端，我認為大體上年輕世代正在擁抱罐裝。

Like they say, my father generation was a can here I was a model drinker and now my kids or can drinkers and they are the drinkers of the future. So it things look to be pretty positive. There are a lot of things to like about the beverage can and -- and I think the consumers are grasping that, and that's positive. So we've not seen any near term nor do I see any long-term damage currently as it relates to tariffs.

就像他們說的，我父親那一代是喝罐裝的；我這一代是喝瓶裝的；而現在我的孩子是喝罐裝的，他們是未來的飲用族群。所以看起來相當正面。飲料罐有很多值得喜歡的地方——我想消費者也正在理解這點，這是正面的。所以就關稅而言，我們既沒有看到任何短期影響，目前也看不到任何長期損害。

Okay. And then I guess, just as a follow-up, I just wanted to get your thoughts a little bit more on North American beverage. So where are you guys, I guess, on the PI I know that there is maybe a drag from that this year, but does that kind of subside and maybe reverse next year, especially given some of the inflation that we're seeing. And I guess, does that mean that you know that you weren't going to put in any capacity, but do you think next year you could kind of grow in that low single-digit volume and then segment income would be maybe above that, just given a reversal.

好的。那接著追問一下，我想再多了解你們對北美飲料的看法。所以你們目前在 PI（價格/通膨相關因素）方面的狀況如何？我知道今年可能會有一些拖累，但那是否會逐步消退，並且在明年可能反轉，尤其考量到我們看到的一些通膨？另外，我想這是否意味著你們知道你們不會新增任何產能，但你們認為明年是否可能在低個位數的量上成長，而事業部收入（segment income）可能會高於那個幅度，因為有反轉的因素？

Well, let's say, we hope you're right. I think it's really early to talk about next year. We're only in April. So I'm going to pass on that.

嗯，我們希望你是對的。我覺得現在談明年還太早。我們才四月。所以這題我先不回答。

Hillary Cacanando, Deutsche Bank.

Hillary Cacanando，德意志銀行。

So could you just remind us how pass-throughs are designed in your contracts? How long are they lags? How much are pass-through and hedges that you may have on the ones that are -- the portion that's not passed through.

你能不能提醒我們，你們合約中的轉嫁（pass-through）機制是怎麼設計的？落後期（lag）有多長？有多少是轉嫁的？以及對於沒有轉嫁的那一部分，你們是否有做避險？

Generally, I'll say generally because it's not the same in every region of the world, but in the big markets, we have total pass-through on LME premium and conversion of ingot to can sheet. So on metal, think about metal has passed through -- and many of our customers elect to hedge aluminum, but we passed through. The formula for passing nonmetal costs through on an annual basis, we passed through a percentage of the PPI index and or CPI, depending -- again, depending on the region of the world not a perfect proxy for our costs every year, but it's designed to capture some of the increase. We do pass through freight and energy across many contracts.

一般來說——我說一般是因為世界各地不同區域不完全一樣——但在主要市場，我們對 LME 溢價以及鋁錠轉換成罐用鋁板（can sheet）的加工費是完全轉嫁的。所以在金屬方面，你可以把金屬視為已經轉嫁——而且我們很多客戶會選擇對鋁進行避險，但我們仍然是轉嫁。至於非金屬成本的轉嫁公式，是以年度為基礎，我們會轉嫁 PPI 指數和/或 CPI 的一定比例——同樣，取決於不同地區；它每年未必是我們成本的完美代理，但設計上是為了捕捉部分的上升。我們在許多合約中也會轉嫁運費與能源成本。

But non-freight nonenergy, if you think about labor, which goes up every year and then other direct material costs like coatings and other system costs like warehousing from time to time, the PPI is either more or less than our actual costs this year, our actual cost -- input costs are a little higher than the formula we had January 1.

但如果是非運費、非能源——例如每年都會上升的人工，還有其他直接材料成本如塗料，以及其他系統成本如倉儲等（不時會變動），PPI 可能高於或低於我們的實際成本。今年我們的實際成本——投入成本——比我們 1 月 1 日的公式所反映的要高一些。

Got it, got it. That's helpful. And in terms of capital allocation, you mentioned really no change this year. we look out further, do we expect any changes in terms of CapEx, you have greenfield that you're planning any changes in buyback plans as we look further out?

了解，了解。這很有幫助。那在資本配置方面，你提到今年基本沒有變化。往更遠看，我們是否預期資本支出（CapEx）會有任何變動？你們有規劃綠地（greenfield）專案嗎？在回購計畫方面，往後看會有任何變化嗎？

Well, I think we're going to -- we have the great fortune of being in a packaging company, being in a can company. And we have the great fortune of having a portfolio of businesses that generates a lot of cash flow. And your hope and our hope is that we're not foolish with that cash flow. But we are going to invest to grow our business from time to time. And where we have greenfield and/or brownfield opportunities we look to do that to support our customers' growth objectives.

嗯，我想我們會——我們很幸運，因為我們是一家包裝公司，是一家製罐公司。我們也很幸運，因為我們擁有一個能產生大量現金流的事業組合。你們的希望與我們的希望都是：我們不要對這些現金流做出愚蠢的決策。但我們也會不時投資以成長我們的業務。而在有綠地和/或棕地（brownfield）機會的地方，我們會尋求這麼做，以支持客戶的成長目標。

Beyond that, currently, beyond our own capital needs as we declared we're going to pay a dividend, and we're going to buy back shares. And, Kevin, do you want to talk about shares or

除此之外，目前，在滿足我們自身的資本需求之後，正如我們已宣告的，我們會支付股利，也會回購股票。Kevin，你要不要談談股票回購或——

Yes. Look, I think as Tim said, the first thing we're going to do is invest in the business. After that, we're going to pay the dividend, which we just increased. And then with remaining cash that's left over, we'll repurchase stock. We'll do it someone on a program basis, but also when we feel that there's good value, we'll be opportunistic and buy a little more within each of the quarters. So look, our plans haven't changed. I think on a long-term basis, we'll average somewhere around $500 million of capital a year, which gives us plenty of money to pay the dividend and buy back stock.

好的。你看，我想如 Tim 所說，我們第一件事是投資在業務上。之後，我們會支付股利——我們剛剛也提高了股利。然後用剩餘的現金來回購股票。我們會在某種程度上以計畫性的方式執行，但也會在我們覺得估值很有吸引力時採取機會主義，在每個季度內多買一些。所以你看，我們的計畫沒有改變。從長期來看，我們平均每年大概會投入約 5 億美元的資本，這讓我們有充足的資金支付股利並回購股票。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Mike Roxland，Truist Securities。

Thank you, Tim, Kevin, Tom. Tim, not trying to be a dead horse over here, but I just wanted to grab your thoughts on consumer elasticity. You mentioned the consumers have been resilient thus far, but it does sound like some of the larger CPG customers are all planning to raise prices this year. I know obviously, consumers are, as you mentioned, are contending with elevated costs. So how do you think about consumer demand in the next 12 months relative to possibly higher prices from your customers as well as increasing cost that consumers are facing?

謝謝你，Tim、Kevin、Tom。Tim，我不是想在這裡老調重彈，但我想聽聽你對消費者需求彈性的看法。你提到截至目前消費者一直很有韌性，但聽起來一些較大的 CPG 客戶今年都計畫要漲價。我知道很明顯地，消費者如你所說，正面臨居高不下的成本。所以，面對客戶可能提高價格，以及消費者自身成本上升，你如何看待未來 12 個月的消費需求？

Listen, I agree with you. There's only so much the consumer can absorb before they have to start making choices. And One thing they're not going to do is not put cash in their car because they have to get the work. So we know the choices that they make that they have to make first before they buy packaged goods. Fortunately, for us, people have to eat and drink. And as I said earlier, can food offers, by and large, the best value for a family to prepare nutritions.

聽著，我同意你的看法。消費者能吸收的程度終究有限，到了某個點就必須開始做選擇。而有一件事他們不會做，就是不往車裡加油，因為他們得去上班。所以我們知道，在他們購買包裝食品之前，必須先做出哪些優先選擇。對我們而言，幸運的是，人們必須吃喝。而且如我先前所說，罐裝食品整體而言，對家庭來說是準備每日營養餐食的最佳價值。

Food on a daily basis. So we're always concerned about demand, but we're less so concerned about that. On the beverage can side, again, you start making choices. You don't go out to dinner so much. Maybe travel is lower. I don't know. I'm looking at the price of airfares these days with jet fuel maybe people don't travel so much and they stay closer to home. And generally, we do much better with consumption when people stay closer to home. But it does feel, as we sit here today, I know Ghansham was circling around the same question earlier, like, so I take the point, we are equally as mindful as you are about the pressure on consumers. But as we sit here today, it feels like we're going to be into a very strong summer.

每天的食物。因此我們一直會擔心需求，但相對而言沒那麼擔心。在飲料罐這一端，同樣地，你會開始做選擇：不那麼常外出用餐，也許旅行會減少。我不知道——我看現在機票價格，因為航空燃油的關係，可能人們不那麼常旅行，而是待在離家近的地方。一般來說，人們待在家附近時，我們的消費表現會好得多。但就我們今天坐在這裡的感覺——我知道 Ghansham 先前也在繞著同樣的問題——我理解你的觀點，我們和你一樣非常留意消費者所承受的壓力。但以今天的情況看起來，我們將迎來一個非常強勁的夏季。

Got it. And then just one quick follow-up, you mentioned in a comment not too recently that you're working on plans to mitigate cost and/or share costs with your customers. Can you provide any more color around what those initiatives are, surcharges and the like. Just anything you could elucidate on in terms of sharing costs with customers?

了解。接著再快速追問一下，你不久前提到你們正在制定計畫以緩解成本，和／或與客戶分攤成本。你能否就這些措施提供更多細節，例如附加費（surcharges）之類的？任何你能進一步說明、關於與客戶分攤成本的內容都可以。

Yes. I don't if you don't want to discuss too much of what our strategy and our plan would be in that regard. But there's a limit to how much any company or anybody within a supply chain can absorb. And depending on how long costs stay elevated and how elevated they are, there are different conversations that need to be had. That's all the points -- that's all that point meant.

是的。我不知道你是否希望我們在這方面談太多我們的策略與計畫。但任何公司或供應鏈中的任何一方，能吸收的程度都有上限。而成本維持在高位的時間長短，以及高到什麼程度，會決定需要進行哪些不同的對話。那就是那句話的意思。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，JPMorgan。

Thanks very much. You talked about catching up to higher raw material costs in your transit business. Do you buy much polyethylene in that polyethylene prices in March maybe were up $0.10 a pound in April maybe they'll be up $0.30 a pound. So there seems to be a rising dynamic there. And for Kevin, in cash flows from financing activities, there was an other net use of cash of $107 million. What was that? And are there any positive offsets to that later in the year?

非常感謝。你談到在你們的運輸（transit）業務中追上更高的原材料成本。你們是否購買很多聚乙烯？因為聚乙烯價格在 3 月可能每磅上漲 0.10 美元，而 4 月可能會上漲 0.30 美元，所以看起來有一個上升的趨勢。另外給 Kevin 的問題：在籌資活動現金流中，有一項「其他淨現金使用」為 1.07 億美元。那是什麼？而今年稍晚是否會有任何正向的抵消項？

Okay. So Jeff, I'll address the financing item. So basically, that $100 million, a little bit less than that related to our North American securitization program. at the end of the year as we sell receivables, we end up collecting more on the receivables that we sold and as a result, we have to repay the bank. I fully expect that amount to basically reverse itself and be closer to 0 by the end of the year.

好的。Jeff，我先回應籌資項目。基本上，那 1 億美元（略低於 1 億）與我們北美的證券化計畫有關。年底時，當我們出售應收帳款，我們會在已出售的應收帳款上收回更多款項，因此我們必須償還銀行。我完全預期這個金額基本上會在年底前反向回轉，並更接近 0。

And then to your first question, Jeff, you're right. There is -- there are rising input costs all over the transit business. We don't have a lot of resin based -- we have some resin based, not a lot of resin-based businesses within transit, but there's rising costs everywhere, whether it's steel, paper resin. And we just have to -- we have to do a better job of maintaining and expanding margins in the business.

至於你的第一個問題，Jeff，你說得對。運輸業務各處都有上升的投入成本。我們在運輸業務中沒有太多以樹脂為基礎的——有一些，但不多——但各種成本都在上升，不論是鋼材、紙張、樹脂。我們必須——我們必須在這項業務上更好地維持並擴大利潤率。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

Edlain Rodriguez，Mizuho。

I mean, Tim, you talked about the potential impact on the consumer because of inflation, but what do you think you could see the most impact? Is it in Southeast Asia? Where does to probably come in at much kind of pressure? Is it in Europe? Like what do you think you could see the most impact in terms of the consumer being impacted by inflation as much.

Tim，你談到通膨對消費者可能造成的影響，但你認為哪裡會看到最大的影響？是在東南亞嗎？哪裡可能會承受最大的壓力？是在歐洲嗎？你認為就通膨對消費者影響的程度而言，哪裡會受到最大的衝擊？

I think the markets you would expect would first be markets like Brazil, Mexico, maybe Southern Europe, maybe parts of Asia, although there's so much growth in Asia right now that it feels like we're going to grow through this in Asia. I think the only thing I worry about in Europe, I don't know how big the tourism season will be in the Southern Europe this year. airfares are really high. People are stretched anyway. Do they postpone the European vacation or not. So we'll see.

我認為你會預期最先受到影響的市場會是巴西、墨西哥，也許是南歐，也許是亞洲的部分地區；不過亞洲目前成長非常強勁，感覺我們會在亞洲一路成長度過這段期間。歐洲我唯一擔心的是，我不知道今年南歐的旅遊旺季會有多大。機票真的很貴。人們本來就很吃緊。他們會不會延後歐洲度假？我們再看看。

But again, everything -- the demand we have right now in Europe is extraordinary. We don't see it letting up. We probably, at the beginning of the year would have expected mid- to higher volumes in Europe for the year, maybe they were -- we've haircutted our assumption out to 4%, but we're still expecting growth and the form might be too low as well.

但再說一次——我們目前在歐洲看到的需求非常驚人。我們沒有看到需求放緩。我們在年初可能預期歐洲全年會有中到較高的量增，也許——我們把假設下修到 4%，但我們仍預期成長，而且這個數字也可能偏低。

Let's not get ourselves. Things are pretty tough. Brazil, Brazil feels like it's -- there's a weakening in Brazil right now. And they have some elections. So we'll see how the market reacts. It's also a winter time, so it's hard to gauge it and we'll see if the World Cup bolsters it. In Mexico, we do expect -- we had a pretty strong start to the year, principally in beer, and we'll see how that holds up, although we are expecting a flatter performance in Mexico. As Ghansham pointed out earlier, four years ago, even in North America, the consumer bought the higher prices across the board when inflation shot up.

我們別自欺欺人了。情況相當艱難。巴西——巴西目前感覺正在走弱，而且他們有選舉。所以我們看看市場如何反應。現在也是冬季，因此很難判斷；我們也會看看世界盃是否能帶動。在墨西哥，我們確實預期——我們今年開局相當強勁，主要是在啤酒方面，我們會看看能否維持，儘管我們預期墨西哥表現會較為持平。正如 Ghansham 先前指出，四年前，即使在北美，當通膨飆升時，消費者也全面接受了更高的價格。

Could we see that again here in North America?

我們會在北美再次看到那種情況嗎？

We could, although again, conditions feel really firm right now. And it just doesn't feel like we're in the same place as we were in 2022.

有可能，不過再說一次，目前的狀況感覺非常穩健。而且感覺我們並不在 2022 年時的同一個位置。

Thank you very much, Edlain. Okay. Thank you. I think you said that was the last question. So that concludes today's call. As always, we thank you for joining us, and we'll speak with you again in July. Bye.

非常感謝你，Edlain。好的，謝謝。我想你說那是最後一個問題了。那麼今天的電話會議就到此結束。一如往常，感謝各位參與，我們將在 7 月再與各位通話。再見。

Once again, that concludes today's conference. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect and have a great day.

再次提醒，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以中斷連線，祝您有美好的一天。