Cameco Corporation (CCJ) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季營收與去年同期相比下滑,主要因 Key Lake Mill 計畫性維修導致產量下降及成本上升,且去年同期有 Westinghouse 來自韓國新建案的大額付款基期影響
    • 本季調整指引:收窄 Cigar Lake 與 MacArthur Key 的鈾產量預期至 19.5-20.5 百萬磅,年度鈾交付量預期收窄至 29.5-30.5 百萬磅,同時下修全年 CapEx 預估,並調高行政費用與單位銷售成本
    • 2026 年度股息維持每股 $0.24,與去年持平,反映資本配置紀律;市場反應未特別提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 全球核能需求基本面持續改善,現有反應爐群、長約需求、燃料安全與西方供應鏈緊縮為基礎
      • AI、資料中心等新興用電需求帶來潛在上行空間,但非公司策略核心假設
      • Westinghouse 平台帶來新建案與現有反應爐長期服務、燃料、維護等多元收入來源
      • 公司資產組合涵蓋礦山、精煉、轉換、燃料製造等多環節,具備供應彈性與一體化優勢
    • 風險:
      • 全球通膨壓力推升生產成本,部分原料與投入品價格上漲
      • 供應端回應遲緩,部分新產能(如 Kamoco Sulfuric Acid plant、H1ymoon 等)進度延遲,且需更高價格誘因
      • 核燃料市場仍受地緣政治、俄羅斯供應禁令等政策不確定性影響
      • 長約簽訂仍低於替換率,市場價格雖已重設但需求尚未全面釋放
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Cigar Lake & MacArthur Key 鈾產量指引:收窄至 19.5-20.5 百萬磅,反映維修與產能調整
    • 年度鈾交付量指引:收窄至 29.5-30.5 百萬磅
    • 2026 年度股息:維持每股 $0.24,與去年持平
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年 CapEx 預估下修,部分礦山與燃料服務專案延後至 2027 年後
    • 行政費用與單位銷售成本預期上升
    • 營收、毛利率未揭露具體數字
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 鈾生產成本上升是否有結構性因素?未來成本水準展望?
      A: 主要受通膨與部分原料價格上漲影響,未見礦石品位等結構性變化,成本壓力短期內仍會持續。
    • Q: 對於韓國投資與美國核能新建案的看法?
      A: 對核能產業前景非常樂觀,美國與韓國合作展現高層推動意願,AP1000 技術與韓國工程能力結合具高度潛力,但仍需完成最終協議、融資與長期規劃。
    • Q: 鈾長約市場現況與價格區間?公司簽約策略?
      A: 長約價格已大幅重設,現有成交量仍低於替換率,合約底價多在每磅 70-90 美元(調整後),天花板可達 160 美元,固定價部分已見三位數美元,公司維持紀律只接受有利條件,不追求量而重視價值。
    • Q: 現金流強勁、淨現金水位高,資本配置規劃?
      A: 將持續維持財務與產能紀律,保留資本彈性以因應市場需求與投資機會,短期內不會大幅調升股息或啟動回購,會視市場與產能利用率調整。
    • Q: 現階段鈾價是否足以激勵新供應?供應端展望?
      A: 現價尚不足以大規模激勵新供應,公司維持產能紀律,部分新產能進度落後,需更高價格誘因,預期隨長約需求回升,價格將進一步上行。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Cameco Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call.

    感謝各位稍候。我是會議接線員。歡迎參加 Cameco Corporation 2026 年第三季業績電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Webcast participants are asked to wait until the Q&A session before submitting their questions, as the information they are looking for may be provided during the presentation.

    收看網路直播的與會者請在問答環節開始前先不要提交問題,因為您想了解的資訊可能會在簡報中提供。

  • The Q&A session will conclude at 9:00 AM Eastern time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Cory Kos, Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead.

    問答環節將於美東時間上午 9:00 結束。現在我想把會議交給投資人關係與傳播副總裁 Cory Kos。請開始。

  • Cory Kos - Investor Relations

    Cory Kos - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Cameco's third quarter 2026 conference call. I'd like to acknowledge that we are speaking from our corporate office in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, which is on Treaty 6 territory, the traditional territory of the Cree people and the homeland of the Metis.

    謝謝,接線員,各位早安。歡迎參加 Cameco 2026 年第三季電話會議。我想先致意並說明,我們目前在加拿大薩斯喀徹溫省薩斯卡通的公司總部發言,該地位於第 6 號條約領地,是克里族的傳統領土,也是梅蒂斯人的家園。

  • With us on today's call are Tim Gitzel, Chief Executive Officer Grant Isaac, President and Chief Operating Officer Hayi Shockey, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Rachelle Girard, Senior Vice President and Chief Corporate Officer.

    今天與會的有:執行長 Tim Gitzel、總裁兼營運長 Grant Isaac、資深副總裁兼財務長 Hayi Shockey,以及資深副總裁兼企業長 Rachelle Girard。

  • Tim will provide some commentary to start the call as we do, and we will then open it up for your questions.

    Tim 將如同以往先就本次電話會議做一些開場評論,之後我們將開放各位提問。

  • Today's call will be approximately one hour, concluding at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

    今天的電話會議約一小時,將於美東時間上午 9:00結束。

  • Our goal is to be open and transparent with our communications. So if we do not have time to get your questions during this call or if you would like to get into detailed financial modeling questions about our quarterly results, we would be happy to respond to any follow-up inquiries.

    我們的目標是在溝通上保持開放與透明。因此,如果本次電話會議時間不足以回答您的問題,或您希望就我們季度業績進行更深入的財務建模問題討論,我們也很樂意回覆任何後續詢問。

  • There are a few ways to contact us with additional questions. You can reach out to the contacts provided in our news release. You can submit a question through the send us a message link in the Invest section of our website or you can use the Ask a Question form at the bottom of the webcast screen and we'll be happy to follow-up after the call.

    如有其他問題,有幾種方式可以聯絡我們。您可以聯絡我們新聞稿中提供的聯絡人。您也可以透過我們網站投資人(Invest)專區的「send us a message」連結提交問題,或使用網路直播畫面底部的「Ask a Question」表單,我們將在會後很樂意跟進回覆。

  • If you join this conference call through our website events page, there are slides available which will be displayed during the call.

    若您是透過我們網站的活動頁面加入本次電話會議,會議期間將顯示可供瀏覽的投影片。

  • For your reference, our quarterly investor handout is also available for download on our website at cameco.com.

    供您參考,我們的季度投資人簡報資料也可在 cameco.com 下載。

  • Today's conference call is open to all members of the investment community, including the media.

    本次電話會議對投資界所有成員開放,包括媒體。

  • During the Q&A session, please limit yourself to two questions and then return to the queue.

    在問答環節中,請每位與會者最多提兩個問題,之後請回到隊列。

  • Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking information, which is based on our current assumptions and actual results could turn out differently.

    請注意,本次電話會議將包含前瞻性資訊,該等資訊係基於我們目前的假設,實際結果可能會有所不同。

  • You should not rely too heavily on forward-looking statements, and we do not plan to update them after this call except as required by law.

    您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述;除法律要求外,我們不計畫在本次電話會議後更新該等陳述。

  • For more details on the assumptions we've made and the risk factors involved, please see our most recent annual information form and MD&A.

    關於我們所作假設及相關風險因素的更多細節,請參閱我們最新的年度資訊表(AIF)與管理階層討論與分析(MD&A)。

  • I will now turn it over to our CEO, Tim Gitzel. Tim.

    現在我把時間交給我們的執行長 Tim Gitzel。Tim。

  • Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer

    Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thank you, Cory, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,Cory,各位早安。

  • Well, Halloween isn't until tomorrow, but here in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, we've already had our first little scare of the season, with winter showing up with some snow on the ground this week.

    萬聖節要到明天才到,但在加拿大薩斯喀徹溫省薩斯卡通,我們這一季已經先被小小嚇了一下:冬天本週提早報到,地上已經有些積雪。

  • I suppose those of us who have lived here our entire lives shouldn't be surprised. It happens every year, but somehow we get surprised.

    我想,我們這些一輩子都住在這裡的人其實不該感到意外。每年都會發生,但不知怎麼地,我們還是會被嚇到。

  • Fortunately, there were fewer surprises in our third quarter results. They were largely in line with what we expected, reflecting the planned activities and outlook we've discussed throughout the year.

    所幸,我們第三季的業績結果驚喜較少。整體大致符合我們的預期,反映了我們全年持續討論的既定活動與展望。

  • So let me begin with a brief look at our third quarter and nine month results.

    因此,我先簡要回顧第三季以及前九個月的業績。

  • I'll then place that performance in the context of the improving fundamentals for nuclear energy and the disciplined strategy that continues to guide our decisions.

    接著,我會把這些表現放在核能基本面改善的背景下來看,並說明持續引導我們決策的紀律性策略。

  • Results for the quarter and for the first nine months of 2026 were lower than the same period last year, which was expected. A few significant items affected the year-over-year comparisons for the quarter and year-to-date, including the longer planned maintenance outage at the Key Lake Mill.

    本季以及 2026 年前九個月的業績低於去年同期,這在預期之內。有幾項重大因素影響了本季與年初至今的同比比較,包括 Key Lake 選礦廠較長的計畫性維修停機。

  • As we've indicated throughout 2026, the work at Key Lake included several larger projects.

    如同我們在 2026 年持續說明的,Key Lake 的工程包含數個較大型的專案。

  • Designed to support the flexibility of the asset and sustainable long-term operations.

    其目的在於提升資產的彈性並支持長期可持續營運。

  • As anticipated, the outage resulted in lower production volumes for the quarter and year-to-date, along with higher costs this quarter.

    如預期,停機導致本季及年初至今的產量較低,同時也使本季成本較高。

  • Last year, Westinghouse also received a significant payment related to the Korean Nukovani nuclear project in the Czech Republic, impacting the comparison of financial results for the first nine months.

    去年,Westinghouse 亦收到一筆與捷克共和國韓國 Nukovani 核電專案相關的重大款項,影響了前九個月財務結果的比較。

  • As with most, if not all industries, we also continue to experience and manage through the inflationary pressures seen globally.

    與大多數(若非所有)產業相同,我們也持續面對並管理全球所見的通膨壓力。

  • A few other items of note to highlight in the results. As we get closer to the end of the year, we've adjusted the range for some of our guidance metrics.

    另外還有幾點值得在結果中特別說明。隨著接近年底,我們已調整部分指引指標的區間。

  • We've narrowed our expectation for our share of uranium production from cigar and MacArthur Key to between GBP19.5 million. And GBP20.5 million.

    我們已將我們在 Cigar 與 MacArthur Key 的鈾產量權益預期區間縮窄至介於 GBP19.5 million與 GBP20.5 million 之間。

  • We've tightened the expected range of annual uranium deliveries to between GBP29.5 million and GBP30.5 million.

    我們也將年度鈾交付量的預期區間收斂至介於 GBP29.5 million 與 GBP30.5 million 之間。

  • With the operational guidance adjustments comes a fine-tuning of financial guidance, including increased direct admin costs and higher average unit cost of sales.

    隨著營運指引的調整,我們也對財務指引進行微調,包括直接管理費用增加,以及銷貨單位平均成本提高。

  • We also lowered expected CapEx spend for the year due to certain mining and fuel services projects and work being pushed beyond the end of the 2026 calendar year.

    我們也下調了本年度預期資本支出(CapEx),原因是部分採礦與燃料服務專案及相關工作將延後至 2026 日曆年度結束之後。

  • You'll note in our Q3 MD&A that we again included some longer-term modeling details pertaining to the Westinghouse segment.

    您會在我們第三季 MD&A 中注意到,我們再次納入了與 Westinghouse 部門相關的一些較長期建模細節。

  • Information in that section of the report is substantially similar to what we provided in Q2 with a few immaterial updates.

    該報告段落中的資訊與我們在第二季提供的內容大致相同,僅有少數不具重大性的更新。

  • However, we decided to include the information again this quarter as we noted in conversations over the summer that those important incremental disclosures may not have been thoroughly absorbed by our stakeholders.

    不過,我們決定本季再次納入該資訊,因為我們在夏季的對話中注意到,這些重要的增量揭露可能尚未被利害關係人充分理解與吸收。

  • Finally, in 2024, we had set out a three-year dividend growth plan to recognize the return to a Tier 1 production rate.

    最後,在 2024 年,我們提出了一項為期三年的股利成長計畫,以反映我們回到第一級(Tier 1)的產能水準。

  • Under that plan, by 2026, we expected to double the $0.12 dividend paid in 2023.

    依該計畫,到 2026 年,我們預期將 2023 年支付的每股 0.12 美元股利加倍。

  • We achieved that doubled dividend a year early, paying out $0.24 per share last year in 2025, thanks in part to the payment Westinghouse received for the Korean new build in the Czech Republic.

    我們提前一年達成股利加倍目標,於 2025 年(去年)支付每股 0.24 美元,部分得益於 Westinghouse 因捷克共和國韓國新建案所收到的款項。

  • For 2026, in line with the principles of our capital allocation framework and that plan set out in 2024, our Board of Directors declared a 2026 annual dividend of $0.24 per common share.

    就 2026 年而言,依循我們資本配置架構的原則以及 2024 年所提出的該計畫,我們董事會宣告 2026 年度每股普通股股利為 0.24 美元。

  • As I said, our performance and outlook continue to be guided by the same disciplined strategy and the strength of our diversified nuclear energy platform.

    如我所說,我們的業績表現與前景展望,仍持續以同一套嚴謹自律的策略,以及我們多元化核能平台的實力為指引。

  • So let's move on and put those results in the context of the current and future demand environment to highlight why we believe Cameco is exceptionally well positioned.

    接下來讓我們往下看,並把這些成果放在當前與未來的需求環境脈絡中,說明為何我們相信 Cameco 具備極為突出的有利定位。

  • We've seen considerable volatility across markets, sectors and industries and nuclear related equities have certainly not been immune.

    我們看到各個市場、板塊與產業出現相當大的波動,而核能相關股票當然也未能倖免。

  • Share prices across uranium fuel cycle, reactor suppliers and the broader nuclear industry have moved sharply. As investors reassess risk and evaluate technology sector expectations and more speculative elements of the energy trade.

    鈾燃料循環、反應爐供應商以及更廣泛核能產業的股價都出現劇烈波動。因為投資人正在重新評估風險,並檢視科技板塊的預期,以及能源交易中較具投機性的部分。

  • Some are questioning whether enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, data centers, critical minerals and new nuclear has moved too far ahead of execution.

    有些人質疑,圍繞人工智慧、資料中心、關鍵礦物與新核能的熱情,是否已經過度超前於實際執行。

  • That's a reasonable distinction to make.

    這樣的區分是合理的。

  • Not every announcement becomes a project and not every forecast becomes firm demand.

    不是每一項宣布都會變成專案,也不是每一個預測都會轉化為確定的需求。

  • But we can't confuse volatility in thematic equities with a change in nuclear fundamentals.

    但我們不能把主題型股票的波動,與核能基本面的改變混為一談。

  • Capital can easily rotate out of a theme in a day or in a week.

    資金很容易在一天或一週內就從某個主題輪動撤出。

  • It takes much longer to replace a depleted uranium reserve, to build, license and commission a fuel cycle facility to establish a western nuclear supply chain or to bring a new reactor into service.

    但要補回枯竭的鈾儲量、興建並取得許可與投運燃料循環設施以建立西方核能供應鏈,或讓一座新反應爐投入商轉,所需時間要長得多。

  • And as an industry, those are the big opportunities that we need investors managing the capital we require to appreciate and support.

    而就整個產業而言,這些正是我們需要管理我們所需資本的投資人能夠理解、重視並支持的重大機會。

  • The nuclear story is underpinned by the existing reactor fleet, long-term utility fuel requirements, tight western fuel cycle capacity, energy security priorities and the need to replace depleting and geopolitically constrained supply.

    核能故事的基礎在於既有反應爐機組、電力公用事業的長期燃料需求、西方燃料循環產能吃緊、能源安全優先事項,以及必須替代逐步枯竭且受地緣政治限制的供應。

  • Reactors continue to consume fuel every day regardless of equity flows or short-term spot price movements.

    無論股市資金流向或短期現貨價格如何波動,反應爐每天都持續消耗燃料。

  • Life extensions, restarts, up rates and new reactors already under construction add requirements on top of that established demand base.

    延役、重啟、功率提升,以及已在建造中的新反應爐,會在既有需求基礎之上再增加需求。

  • Artificial intelligence and data centers can provide meaningful upside, but they are not the foundation of the nuclear investment thesis. Nor are they a load-bearing assumption in our strategy.

    人工智慧與資料中心確實可能帶來可觀的上行空間,但它們並不是核能投資論點的基礎。它們也不是我們策略中的關鍵承重假設。

  • The technology sector is projecting a need for very large amounts of reliable around-the-clock electricity, and nuclear is well-suited to those requirements.

    科技產業預期需要非常大量、可靠且全天候供電的電力,而核能非常適合滿足這些需求。

  • But forecasts for AI-related electricity demand vary considerably, and outcomes will depend on the pace of development.

    但對於 AI 相關用電需求的預測差異很大,結果將取決於發展速度。

  • Data centers under construction today will need power sooner than most new large reactors can be delivered.

    目前正在興建的資料中心,所需電力到位的時間會早於多數新建大型反應爐可交付的時間。

  • So in the near term, some of that load growth will be met through gas, renewable storage, grid upgrades, and nuclear upgrades and life extensions.

    因此在短期內,部分負載成長將透過天然氣、再生能源儲能、電網升級,以及核能升級與延役來滿足。

  • We nevertheless remain confident that demand from the technology sector is coming, and we're excited about it.

    儘管如此,我們仍然有信心科技產業的需求正在到來,並且對此感到振奮。

  • After all, AI and data centers represent meaningful upside across uranium, fuel services, reactor services and new build.

    畢竟,AI 與資料中心在鈾、燃料服務、反應爐服務以及新建機組方面,都代表著重要的上行空間。

  • But Cameco's base case remains grounded in the reactors, contracts and fuel requirements that exist today, underpinned by those life extensions, restarts and upgrades along with electrification, onshoring of manufacturing and decarbonization.

    但 Cameco 的基本情境仍以今日已存在的反應爐、合約與燃料需求為根基,並由延役、重啟與升級,以及電氣化、製造業回流(在地化生產)與去碳化所支撐。

  • We already have an incentive to focus on fuel security requirements and the need for disciplined execution in replacing declining supply.

    我們本來就有誘因聚焦於燃料安全需求,以及在替代下滑供應時所需的自律執行。

  • When it comes to adjusting for the risks, investors must separate volatile headlines from the work required to execute. To serve that demand, the supply response remains slow, capital intensive and exposed to risks that go well beyond traditional mining.

    在調整風險時,投資人必須把波動的新聞標題,與落實執行所需的工作區分開來。為了滿足該需求,供給端的回應仍然緩慢、資本密集,且面臨的風險遠超傳統採礦。

  • When building a new reactor, the announcements matter, but value is created through contracting, construction, fuel supply operation and decades of service.

    在興建新反應爐時,宣布固然重要,但價值是透過簽約、施工、燃料供應、營運以及數十年的服務所創造。

  • It's no different on the supply side.

    供應端也是同樣道理。

  • Permitting and development at the front end are immediate challenges, but technical complexity, financing, inflation, supply chain capacity and geopolitics all matter when putting the value in context.

    前端的許可與開發是眼前的挑戰,但在衡量價值時,技術複雜度、融資、通膨、供應鏈產能與地緣政治都同樣重要。

  • Strong policy support and higher demand forecasts help advance projects, but they do not eliminate execution risk.

    強勁的政策支持與更高的需求預測有助於推進專案,但並不能消除執行風險。

  • Put plainly, announcing production is not the same as having licensed, financed and operating productive capacity, and at Tameco, we have that capacity.

    簡單說,宣布要生產不等於已取得許可、完成融資並擁有正在運轉的有效產能;而在 Tameco,我們擁有那樣的產能。

  • Improving nuclear demand creates opportunities for uranium conversion, fabrication and enrichment.

    核能需求改善,為鈾轉換、燃料製造與濃縮帶來機會。

  • And for the nuclear technology needed to support the existing and future reactor fleet.

    也為支援現有與未來反應爐機組所需的核能技術帶來機會。

  • There's real scarcity value in proven assets, decades of operating experience, established customer relationships, and the demonstrated ability to execute.

    在經驗證的資產、數十年的營運經驗、既有客戶關係,以及已展現的執行能力上,確實存在稀缺性價值。

  • Cameco is not a portfolio of undeveloped concepts or a single project.

    Cameco 不是一組尚未開發的概念集合,也不是單一專案。

  • We operate established businesses serving the global nuclear industry. And we've been doing it successfully for decades.

    我們經營的是為全球核能產業提供服務的成熟業務。而且我們已成功地做了數十年。

  • That gives Cameco a defensive foundation with disciplined exposure to the upside as nuclear deployment advances.

    這讓 Cameco 在核能部署推進之際,具備防禦性的基礎,同時以自律方式參與上行機會。

  • As we highlight time and time again, our position spans the nuclear ecosystem.

    正如我們一再強調,我們的布局橫跨核能生態系。

  • Tier 1 long life uranium assets with established mining and milling infrastructure, refining, conversion and fuel fabrication capacity.

    具備既有採礦與選冶基礎設施的一級(Tier 1)長壽命鈾資產,以及精煉、轉換與燃料製造產能。

  • A substantial portfolio of long-term customer commitments supported by multiple supply levers long-term enrichment exposure through global laser enrichment meaningful exposure to reactor services and new build opportunities through Westinghouse and disciplined financial management reinforcing the entire platform.

    龐大的長期客戶承諾組合,由多種供應槓桿支撐;透過全球雷射濃縮(GLE)取得的長期濃縮曝險;透過 Westinghouse 對反應爐服務與新建機會的顯著曝險;以及強化整體平台的自律財務管理。

  • Our growth opportunities are concentrated around proven assets.

    我們的成長機會集中在經驗證的資產周邊。

  • Brownfield capacity, established businesses and technologies customers already rely on.

    既有場址(brownfield)產能、成熟業務,以及客戶已經仰賴的技術。

  • We don't ask investors to underwrite full greenfield permitting, construction, financing and ramp up risk across the portfolio.

    我們不要求投資人為整個投資組合承擔全新場址(greenfield)的許可、建造、融資與爬坡增產風險。

  • Our exploration portfolio provides visibility to future resource replacement and lets us invest through the cycle rather than reactively acquiring at the top of a market.

    我們的探勘投資組合讓未來資源替代更具能見度,並使我們能夠穿越景氣循環投資,而不是在市場高點被動收購。

  • Our mining and milling businesses combine scarce high-quality assets with infrastructure and operating knowledge.

    我們的採礦與選冶業務,結合了稀缺的高品質資產、基礎設施與營運知識。

  • Our refining, conversion, and fabrication operations provide exposure to strategic bottlenecks in the Western fuel cycle and support customers seeking reliable, integrated, and geopolitically secure supply.

    我們的精煉、轉換與燃料製造業務,使我們得以參與西方燃料循環中的策略性瓶頸,並支援尋求可靠、一體化且具地緣政治安全性的供應之客戶。

  • Our investment in GLE provides disciplined future exposure to enrichment, a critical and constrained part of the fuel cycle.

    我們對 GLE 的投資,讓我們以自律方式取得對濃縮的未來曝險;濃縮是燃料循環中關鍵且受限的一環。

  • And Westinghouse provides recurring exposure to reactors operating today through fuel, parts, engineering, maintenance, upgrades and life extension work, as well as long-term upside from new builds.

    而 Westinghouse 透過燃料、零組件、工程、維護、升級與延役工作,讓我們對目前運轉中的反應爐取得可重複的曝險,同時也帶來新建機組的長期上行空間。

  • Each new AP1000 expands an installed base that requires decades of fuel, services and maintenance with follow-on demand across Cameco's uranium and fuel services businesses.

    每新增一座 AP1000,都會擴大已裝置基礎,而該基礎在未來數十年需要燃料、服務與維護,並帶動 Cameco 的鈾與燃料服務業務的後續需求。

  • That's the advantage of the ground-to-grid platform that we've built.

    這就是我們所打造的「從地面到電網」平台的優勢。

  • Our strength is not merely that we participate in several parts of the nuclear industry, it's that our businesses reinforce one another.

    我們的強項不僅在於參與核能產業的多個環節,更在於我們的各項業務彼此相互強化。

  • Improving fundamentals and differentiated assets create opportunity, but strategy determines how that opportunity is converted into durable value.

    基本面改善與差異化資產創造機會,但策略決定如何把機會轉化為可持續的價值。

  • We do not build or produce uranium based on a forecast.

    我們不會僅依據預測就去興建或生產鈾。

  • Our contract portfolio and signals from customers inform our supply decisions helping ensure we don't create an overhang or send a mixed message to the market.

    我們的合約組合與客戶訊號會引導我們的供應決策,協助確保我們不會造成供給過剩壓力,或向市場傳遞混雜訊息。

  • We commit capital and productive capacity when market signals, customer commitments and expected full cycle returns support the decision.

    當市場訊號、客戶承諾與預期的全週期報酬支持該決策時,我們才會投入資本與生產產能。

  • Reliability, contract-based decisions, full cycle economics and flexibility provided by multiple supply levers are central to how we operate.

    可靠性、以合約為基礎的決策、全週期經濟性,以及由多重供應槓桿所提供的彈性,是我們營運方式的核心。

  • Our discipline is sometimes described simply as holding back supply, but it's much more sophisticated than that.

    我們的紀律有時被簡單地描述為抑制供應,但其實遠比那更精密。

  • We must preserve long-term value without encouraging uneconomic supply or risking leaving customers uncovered over the long-term.

    我們必須在不鼓勵不具經濟性的供應、也不冒著長期讓客戶供應缺口風險的前提下,維持長期價值。

  • We strike that balance through contracting, operational reliability, financial discipline and supply flexibility.

    我們透過簽約、營運可靠性、財務紀律與供應彈性來取得這個平衡。

  • A strong market does not excuse poor execution or weak discipline.

    市場強勁並不能為執行不佳或紀律薄弱開脫。

  • It makes discipline more valuable.

    它反而讓紀律更有價值。

  • That's why we protect the base, contract selectively, preserve supply and capital flexibility and retain upside to successful nuclear deployment.

    因此我們保護基本盤、有選擇地簽約、保留供應與資本的彈性,並保留核能部署成功所帶來的上行空間。

  • It's a strategy that allows Cameco to remain investable without requiring perfect timing or speculative assumptions.

    這是一項讓 Cameco 在不需要完美時點或投機性假設的情況下,仍能維持可投資性的策略。

  • It positions us to support customers today while preserving the ability to respond to additional demand as it becomes durable, contracted. And economically attractive.

    它讓我們能在今天支援客戶,同時保留在額外需求變得持久、並以合約鎖定時做出回應的能力。而且在經濟上具吸引力。

  • And as I said, we're also building out our own demand.

    而且如我所說,我們也正在建立我們自身的需求。

  • Westinghouse remains strategically important to Cameco and our focus remains on supporting its long-term success.

    Westinghouse 對 Cameco 仍具策略性重要性,我們的重點仍是支持其長期成功。

  • Last quarter, we acknowledged the S1 draft registration statement that Westinghouse filed.

    上一季,我們提到 Westinghouse 提交的 S-1 草案註冊聲明。

  • Under securities rules, we are limited on what we can say about that process.

    依據證券規則,我們對該流程能說的內容有所限制。

  • Speaking generally about all of the investments we make, we expect them to benefit our owners over the long-term.

    一般而言,就我們所做的所有投資而言,我們預期它們將在長期為股東帶來利益。

  • As we have said consistently, our responsibility is to consider every scenario that maximizes those benefits while working to preserve Cameco's role as a strategic partner in support of the long-term health of our businesses and the industry.

    如我們一貫所言,我們的責任是在致力維持 Cameco 作為策略夥伴、以支持我們業務與產業長期健康的同時,考量每一種能使這些利益最大化的情境。

  • Looking at Westinghouse more broadly, recent announcements from the United States and the Republic of Korea demonstrate the scale of interest in nuclear deployment.

    更廣泛地看 Westinghouse,美國與大韓民國近期的公告顯示外界對核能部署的興趣規模。

  • As those opportunities advance, definitive agreements, site planning, financing, risk allocation and long lead procurement will be required.

    隨著這些機會推進,將需要具約束力的協議、場址規劃、融資、風險分配以及長交期採購。

  • Korean engineering, construction and manufacturing capability can complement Westinghouse's AP1000 technology and improve execution.

    韓國在工程、建造與製造方面的能力,可與 Westinghouse 的 AP1000 技術互補並提升執行力。

  • Here in Canada, several provinces are also considering new or expanded nuclear generation.

    在加拿大,數個省份也正在考慮新增或擴大核能發電。

  • Cameco is ready to support that opportunity with an AP1000 design that is licensed, construction ready and operating today.

    Cameco 已準備好以已取得許可、可立即施工且目前正在運轉的 AP1000 設計來支持這項機會。

  • We've been Cameco and exclusively focused on the nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear energy since 1,988.

    自 1,988 年以來,我們一直是 Cameco,並且專注於核燃料循環與核能。

  • We've managed the nuclear-focused business through strong markets and through difficult ones.

    我們在市場強勁時與艱困時期都管理著以核能為核心的業務。

  • We didn't jump into nuclear new build with a PowerPoint concept only once the theme created opportunity.

    我們不是在主題帶來機會之後,才僅憑一份 PowerPoint 概念就跳進核電新建。

  • Canada's nuclear strength doesn't need to be confined to one technology or one market segment.

    加拿大的核能優勢不必局限於單一技術或單一市場區隔。

  • With established heavy water expertise, emerging SMR leadership and ownership in the AP1000 platform, Canada has an opportunity to participate across a much broader global nuclear market.

    憑藉既有的重水專業、正在崛起的 SMR 領導地位,以及對 AP1000 平台的持股,加拿大有機會參與更廣泛的全球核能市場。

  • So when investors consider Cameco, we want them to remember what they own today, operating businesses across the nuclear fuel cycle, exposure to the existing global reactor fleet.

    因此,當投資人考量 Cameco 時,我們希望他們記得自己今天所擁有的是:橫跨核燃料循環的在營業務,以及對既有全球反應爐機組的曝險。

  • Disciplined exposure to new-built growth, a contract portfolio that informs supply decisions, brownfield and strategic growth options, multiple supply levers, an experienced team operating technically complex assets and a strategy that does not require perfect timing or speculative assumptions.

    對新建成長的有紀律曝險、能指引供應決策的合約組合、棕地與策略性成長選項、多重供應槓桿、一支具經驗的團隊在營運技術高度複雜的資產,以及一項不需要完美時點或投機性假設的策略。

  • The nuclear industry does not need more aspiration and speculation. It needs supply, execution and experience.

    核能產業不需要更多的願景與投機。它需要供應、執行與經驗。

  • Cameco has those capabilities today.

    Cameco 今天就具備這些能力。

  • We have a resilient foundation to operate through volatile markets and we have built in meaningful upside as the nuclear opportunity continues to expand.

    我們擁有可在波動市場中運作的韌性基礎,並且隨著核能機會持續擴大,已建立具實質意義的上行空間。

  • So thank you for your continued interest and support.

    因此,感謝各位持續的關注與支持。

  • Before moving to questions, I would like to highlight the change to our executive team that we announced today.

    在進入提問之前,我想強調我們今天宣布的高階主管團隊變動。

  • Our Chief Financial Officer, Heidi Shockey, has announced her intention to retire at the end of the first quarter of 2027.

    我們的財務長(CFO)Heidi Shockey 已宣布她打算於 2027 年第一季末退休。

  • Heidi has been an exceptional individual to work with during her career, spanning over 20 years at Cameco, holding senior positions and responsibilities in financial reporting.

    Heidi 在其職涯中一直是非常出色的合作夥伴;她在 Cameco 服務超過 20 年,曾擔任多項高階職務並負責財務報導。

  • Financial planning and analysis, tax, treasury and risk.

    財務規劃與分析、稅務、資金管理與風險。

  • On behalf of the board and the management team, I would like to thank Heidi for her significant contributions to Cameco and for bringing her strategic thinking and deep financial expertise to our business every single day.

    我謹代表董事會與管理團隊,感謝 Heidi 對 Cameco 的重大貢獻,以及她每天為我們的業務帶來的策略思維與深厚財務專業。

  • We wish her the best in her retirement.

    我們祝福她退休生活一切順利。

  • Beginning January 1, 2027, Heidi will assume the role of Executive Advisor in Finance until her retirement date of March 31, 2027.

    自 2027 年 1 月 1 日起,Heidi 將擔任財務執行顧問(Executive Advisor in Finance),直到其 2027 年 3 月 31 日的退休日期。

  • Leah Hipperson, currently Vice President and Treasurer, has been with Cameco for over 15 years.

    Leah Hipperson 目前為副總裁兼財務主管(Treasurer),在 Cameco 服務已超過 15 年。

  • She will be appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective January 1, 2027.

    她將自 2027 年 1 月 1 日起出任資深副總裁暨財務長。

  • I'm pleased to welcome Leah to the senior executive team with her well-recognized leadership, as well as the broad experience she brings spanning investor relations, corporate strategy, risk management and tax and treasury.

    我很高興以她廣受肯定的領導力,以及她在投資人關係、公司策略、風險管理、稅務與資金管理等領域的豐富經驗,歡迎 Leah 加入高階主管團隊。

  • I look forward to working with her during these exciting times in the nuclear industry.

    我期待在核能產業這段令人振奮的時期與她共事。

  • Jill Johnson, who has been with Cameco since 2012 and is currently Senior Director of Tax and Treasury, will be appointed as Vice President and Treasurer.

    Jill Johnson 自 2012 年加入 Cameco,目前為稅務與資金管理資深總監,將獲任命為副總裁兼財務主管(Treasurer)。

  • So thank you all for joining us today and operator, we are now ready to take questions.

    因此,感謝各位今天與會;接線員,我們現在準備開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

    我們現在開始問答環節。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • The Cameco Investor Relations team will follow-up with you by e-mail after the call.

    Cameco 投資人關係團隊將在會後以電子郵件與您跟進。

  • Once again, anyone on the conference call who wishes to ask a question may press star one at this time.

    再次提醒,任何希望在電話會議中提問的人士,現在可按星號 1。

  • The first question today comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

    今天的第一個問題來自高盛(Goldman Sachs)的 Brian Lee。請發言。

  • Brian Lee - Analyst

    Brian Lee - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions.

    早安。謝謝讓我提問。

  • Maybe first one, just starting on the operations, uranium costs look like they went up quite a bit. I know you mentioned during your prepared remarks, Tim. Some of the factors, this cost absorption, inflation, et cetera. But are you seeing anything structural there, lower grades, anything that you think would persist beyond a short-term and maybe any sense for how long we stay at these elevated production cost levels from you?

    也許先從營運面開始,鈾的成本看起來上升了不少。我知道你在事先準備的發言中提到過,Tim。一些因素,例如成本吸收、通膨等等。但你們是否看到任何結構性的變化,例如品位下降之類,會在短期之外持續?以及你們對於我們會在這些偏高的生產成本水準停留多久,是否有任何看法?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Thanks, Brian. Appreciate your question. I know I don't think we're seeing anything really different, not in the grade.

    謝謝你,Brian。感謝你的問題。我不認為我們看到任何真正不同的情況,至少在品位方面沒有。

  • Category of orders. I think inflation certainly, I think, is a factor that everybody's dealing with. Some of the reagents and inputs we use have got some pressure on them. But Taiya, I'm not sure if you have anything to add to that.

    訂單類別。我認為通膨當然是一個大家都在面對的因素。我們使用的一些試劑與投入品確實有些壓力。不過 Taiya,我不確定你是否要補充?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yeah, no, I would just reiterate the comments that we did see lower production this quarter, but it was due to a planned outage and that was at Key Lake to modernize the.

    是的,不是,我只是想重申一下我們的評論:本季確實看到產量較低,但那是因為計畫性的停機檢修,而且是在 Key Lake,目的是為了現代化。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • The mill there, so really that's part of it, as well.

    那裡的磨礦廠,所以這其實也是其中一部分原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • As the inflation cost this quarter, but nothing to do with on the mine side.

    至於本季的通膨成本,但跟礦山端沒有關係。

  • Brian Lee - Analyst

    Brian Lee - Analyst

  • Got it, makes sense, and then the second question for me, I know.

    了解,合理。然後我第二個問題,我知道。

  • There may not be much you can say, but on the Korea investment news that became public a few weeks ago, seems like that's accelerated development efforts, at least that's the initial read. Any thoughts you can share on kind of where that process stands or just high-level thoughts in general around the Korea investment for nuclear build-out in the U.S.?

    你們可能能說的不多,但關於幾週前公開的韓國投資消息,看起來至少從初步解讀來看,已加速了開發推進的努力。你們能否分享一下該流程目前進展到哪裡,或是就韓國投資在美國核電擴建(nuclear build-out)方面,提供一些整體層面的看法?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Yeah, thanks again for the question, Brian. We're pretty limited, as everyone knows, on what we could share about Westinghouse. But Grant is on the board and our expert here. So Grant, do you want to take that?

    好的,再次謝謝你的問題,Brian。如大家所知,關於 Westinghouse 我們能分享的內容相當有限。不過 Grant 在董事會,而且也是我們這裡的專家。所以 Grant,你要不要來回答?

  • Unidentified Company Representative1

    Unidentified Company Representative1

  • Yeah, I would make a couple of comments, Brian. Over the years, people that have followed our story have watched us talk about nuclear. We initially were cautious, then we were cautiously optimistic. And I think what we want to remind people is we're now fully optimistic.

    好的,Brian,我會做幾點評論。多年來,關注我們故事的人都看著我們談核能。我們一開始很謹慎,後來是審慎樂觀。而我想我們想提醒大家的是:我們現在是完全樂觀。

  • We are very excited about the nuclear energy tailwinds, and they're blowing from exploration right through to nuclear new build and every segment in between. And at the highest level, I would say, whether it's the DOEs.

    我們對核能的順風因素感到非常振奮,而且這股順風從勘探一路吹到核電新建(new build),以及中間的每一個環節。從最高層面來看,我會說,不論是 DOE 的。

  • Nuclear supply chain loans program, through Secretary Wright and folks like Greg Beard and Julie Kazoraki at Energy Dominance Financing, showing incredible leadership on the new build side through to the Department of Commerce efforts to put frameworks in place with very nuclear serious partners like the Japanese and the Koreans.

    核能供應鏈貸款計畫,透過 Wright 部長,以及像 Energy Dominance Financing 的 Greg Beard 和 Julie Kazoraki 這些人,在新建端展現出令人難以置信的領導力;一直到商務部(Department of Commerce)致力於與像日本與韓國這樣非常重視核能的夥伴建立框架。

  • Let's not forget the signal that this is sending, the highest levels of the US government. Is keenly interested in gigawatt scale new build at a pace and I would say interest that we haven't seen in decades. So let's not forget how powerful this signal is. With specific reference to Korea, obviously a lot that needs to be done in terms of definitive agreements, et cetera, but what it demonstrates is that.

    別忘了這所釋放的訊號——美國政府最高層級。正高度關注以吉瓦(gigawatt)規模的新建,且其推進速度與關注程度,我會說是數十年來未曾見過的。所以別忘了這個訊號有多強。具體談到韓國,顯然在最終協議等方面還有很多工作要做,但它所展現的是。

  • The IP settlement between Westinghouse and the Koreans a number of years ago highlights just how powerful Westinghouse technology with Korean capabilities actually is. And so when you think about a framework agreement anticipating up to eight gigawatt scale reactors, six of them AP1000s, two of them APR1400s, it just shows.

    幾年前 Westinghouse 與韓國方面的 IP(智慧財產)和解,凸顯了 Westinghouse 技術結合韓國能力的強大之處。因此,當你想到一項框架協議,預期最多可達八座吉瓦級反應爐,其中六座是 AP1000、兩座是 APR1400,這就顯示出。

  • The level of interest and the degree of effort going into achieving the executive order calling for 10 large nuclear power plants under development by 2030. So we just take this all as very positive. There are just unique coordinating challenges to the US market.

    為了達成行政命令所要求在 2030 年前讓 10 座大型核電廠進入開發階段,所投入的關注程度與努力強度。所以我們把這一切都視為非常正面。美國市場確實存在一些獨特的協調挑戰。

  • Unlike other markets with a regulated utility owned by the state. Where the state can simply put in place a contract for differences or a rate asset based model and just get going. The US structure requires just a lot more coordination between a reactor vendor and a constructor supply chain that's independent as well as a utility and long-term customers. And that coordinating effort is, I think everybody's aware of it and everybody's focused on it.

    不同於其他由國家擁有、受監管的公用事業市場。在那種市場裡,政府可以直接建立差價合約(contract for differences)或以費率資產基礎(rate asset based)模式,然後就能推動起來。美國的結構需要在反應爐供應商、同樣獨立的建造與供應鏈、公用事業公司以及長期客戶之間進行更多協調。而這種協調工作,我想大家都知道,也都在聚焦處理。

  • But I would just go back to we are fully optimistic.

    但我還是要回到一點:我們是完全樂觀的。

  • That nuclear new build in the United States is a very serious and real prospect.

    美國核電新建是一個非常嚴肅且真實的前景。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Brian, I'd just add to Grant's point. I mean, it's not just the United States either. I mean, we can talk about a whole bunch of countries around the world, including the one we're in here in Canada, where we're really excited about the future for the AP1000 and we've been traveling.

    Brian,我再補充 Grant 的觀點。其實不只是美國而已。我們可以談到全球很多國家,包括我們現在所在的加拿大;我們對 AP1000 的未來非常興奮,而且我們一直在出差。

  • All over the place to different countries around the world who are as equally excited about the AP1000, so lots on the go.

    到世界各地不同國家,那些國家對 AP1000 也同樣感到興奮,所以有很多事情正在進行中。

  • Brian Lee - Analyst

    Brian Lee - Analyst

  • All right, thanks for all the color.

    好的,謝謝你們提供這麼多細節。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Oris Wakadal with Scotia Bank.

    Scotia Bank 的 Oris Wakadal。

  • Orest Wowkodaw - Analyst

    Orest Wowkodaw - Analyst

  • Yes, good morning. I'm wondering, Grant, if you could give us some commentary on what's happening on the contracting side. We've seen your book, I guess your five-year book at GBP28 million average, kind of stays unchanged for a couple of quarters now. Just wondering if you can give us some color on discussions and how that may be impacting in terms of floors and ceilings under discussion?

    是的,早安。我想請問 Grant,你是否可以就簽約(contracting)端正在發生的情況給我們一些評論。我們看到你們的簿記(book),我想是你們五年期的簿記平均為 2,800 萬英鎊,似乎已連續幾季維持不變。想請你提供一些討論進展的背景,以及這可能如何影響目前在討論中的地板價與天花板價?

  • Unidentified Company Representative1

    Unidentified Company Representative1

  • Yeah, I absolutely am happy to talk about contracting in the uranium business, Auris, so thank you.

    好的,我非常樂意談談鈾業務的簽約情況,Auris,謝謝。

  • For the question. I think the most important point for everybody interested in the uranium space is to remember that we have seen a very substantial reset in the long-term price and spot price of uranium.

    你的問題。我認為對所有關注鈾產業的人來說,最重要的一點是要記得:我們已經看到鈾的長期價格與現貨價格出現非常大幅度的重置。

  • On very little long-term demand. And this is a really important point to make that we have been below replacement rate contracting in the uranium segment since 2012, which means utilities collectively have not been buying on an annual basis what they've been consuming. Off of old contracts, that by definition means that there's a massive destocking going on of uranium supplies globally because if you're not buying forward what you've just consumed, the difference has to be made-up by something. So we find ourselves in a market where prices have reset significantly and we haven't even hit replacement rate demand yet. So for an incumbent nuclear producer, this is not only very exciting, but it also reminds us this is a time to be disciplined because replacement rate contracting either at or above is when really strong price formation begins to set in. So the upside looks terrific.

    而這是在長期需求很少的情況下發生的。這是一個非常重要的觀點:自 2012 年以來,鈾產業的簽約量一直低於補庫/替換率(replacement rate),也就是說,公用事業公司整體每年購買的量並沒有達到其消耗量。依賴舊合約供應,按定義就意味著全球鈾供應正在發生大規模去庫存(destocking),因為如果你沒有以前瞻方式買回你剛消耗的量,差額就必須由其他來源補上。因此我們正處於一個價格已顯著重置、但我們甚至還沒達到替換率需求的市場。所以對既有的核燃料生產商而言,這不僅非常令人振奮,也提醒我們現在是必須保持紀律的時刻,因為當替換率簽約達到或高於該水準時,真正強勁的價格形成才會開始出現。因此,上行空間看起來非常好。

  • We're disciplined right now. What is the market we're seeing? We're seeing a market where we have a bias towards market-related, of course. So we like to commit volumes forward in a very disciplined way under terms and conditions that make sense for our contract. So what we're seeing are floors in the mid to high 70s escalated.

    我們目前很有紀律。我們看到的市場是什麼?我們看到的是一個偏向市場連動(market-related)的市場,當然。所以我們喜歡以非常有紀律的方式,依照對我們合約有意義的條款與條件,承諾未來交付量。因此我們看到的地板價(floors)在經調整(escalated)後落在 70 多美元中段到高段。

  • We're seeing ceilings touching $160 escalated. And for the base escalated portion, the portion of a contract that we're willing to fix, we are at three-digit uranium prices in US dollars escalated. So we are seeing on very small volumes a very healthy reset of the uranium price. We continue to be very disciplined in accepting only those terms and conditions that make sense to us, and if they aren't being offered, we will step back. From the market, which, by the way, is reflected in our sales numbers. Remember, our sales are a function of the health of the market. We will not chase this market for volume.

    我們看到的天花板價(ceilings)在經調整(escalated)後觸及 160 美元。而就基準、經調整(base escalated)的部分——也就是我們願意固定價格的那一段——我們看到的是以美元計價、經調整後的三位數鈾價。因此,即使在非常小的量上,我們也看到鈾價出現非常健康的重置。我們仍然非常有紀律,只接受對我們有意義的條款與條件;如果市場沒有提供,我們就會從市場上退一步。順帶一提,這也反映在我們的銷售數字上。請記得,我們的銷售是市場健康狀況的函數。我們不會為了量而追逐這個市場。

  • We will demand value from the market. So we are actually seeing a very constructive market. I go and I'll make the same comment I made with respect to Westinghouse. We're not just cautiously optimistic. We're fully optimistic that as you look at the durable demand picture over a much more uncertain. Certain supply picture that this reset in the uranium price is bound to get stronger and we will remain disciplined to capture maximum value through our contracting.

    我們將要求市場提供價值。因此,我們實際上看到的是一個非常具建設性的市場。我再重申一次我先前針對西屋(Westinghouse)所做的同樣評論。我們不只是審慎樂觀。我們是完全樂觀地認為,當你在更不確定的情況下審視耐久的需求圖景,以及相對更確定的供給圖景時,這次鈾價的重置勢必會變得更強,而我們也將在簽約上保持紀律,以捕捉最大價值。

  • Orest Wowkodaw - Analyst

    Orest Wowkodaw - Analyst

  • Thanks, Grant. And just as a quick follow-up, if I could, from a capital allocation perspective, I mean, the company is sitting with essentially zero net debt. You've got a really great free cash flow profile ahead of you.

    謝謝你,Grant。另外快速追問一下,若可以的話,從資本配置的角度來看,我的意思是,公司目前基本上是零淨負債。你們未來的自由現金流輪廓也非常漂亮。

  • What can we anticipate in terms of.

    就以下方面,我們可以預期什麼。

  • Capital allocation, like should we anticipate more dividend increases, a buyback? It's not clear to me what the use of proceeds is going to be from all this cash flow coming in.

    資本配置方面,例如我們是否應該預期更多的股利提高、股票回購?我不太清楚這些即將流入的現金流,最終會如何運用。

  • Unidentified Company Representative1

    Unidentified Company Representative1

  • When we think about capital allocation, it really is rooted in the comment I made earlier that we are still in a very disciplined position. I'll remind everybody that we are still about 30% below our full licensed.

    當我們思考資本配置時,確實是根植於我先前提到的評論:我們仍然處於非常有紀律的位置。我提醒大家,我們目前仍比我們完整核准的(full licensed)

  • Permitted production levels if all of our assets were running at full production. We're still in discipline for the reason I talked about earlier, which is the market is not yet at replacement rate or above contracting. So while we're in discipline from a run rate production point of view, as a consequence of. We're being very disciplined on layering in new sales volumes. That reminds us that we also want to be disciplined financially. We want to make sure that we have the financial capacity to, I would say, be as patient as some of the utilities can be in bringing their demand to the market. We don't want to build a strategy that we can't afford. So as long as we're production disciplined, you are going to see financial discipline continue to be a hallmark for us.

    核准產能水準低約30%,即便我們所有資產都以滿產運轉也是如此。我們仍維持紀律,原因如我先前所說:市場的長約簽約量尚未達到替代成本水準(replacement rate)或更高。因此,雖然從產量運轉率的角度我們保持紀律,作為其結果,我們在逐步疊加新的銷售量方面也非常有紀律。這也提醒我們,財務上同樣要有紀律。我們要確保具備財務能力,我會說,能像部分公用事業公司一樣有耐心,等待其需求進入市場。我們不想建立一個我們負擔不起的策略。所以只要我們在生產上保持紀律,你就會看到財務紀律仍將是我們的一大特徵。

  • That's a very prudent way for us to be. In addition, you've seen us being willing to be counter cyclical with some of our asset investments.

    對我們而言,這是一種非常審慎的做法。此外,你也看到我們願意在資產投資上採取逆週期(counter cyclical)的作法。

  • Revitalizing the Key Lake mill, making sure that as we spend money at a very important asset like that, mills are the critical path item to yellowcake in the mining business. And we happen to have two of them. And they're really important assets and we want to be counter-cyclical, prepare them, not just in the case of Key Lake for the end of MacArthur River, but for whatever replaces MacArthur River in the future, you want to think about that mill as more of an in-perpetuity asset. So. Want to have the financial capability to invest in that, support our discipline. And remember that as the prices have strengthened across uranium and fuel services and also for the products and services that Westinghouse provides, those prices are still in front of us. The consequence of serving a long-term market is that you capture those prices on a go-forward basis. So all of that comes together to say, I agree with you, we're in a. Incredibly strong financial position.

    例如活化(revitalizing)Key Lake 的選礦廠,確保我們在這類非常重要的資產上投入資金;在採礦業務中,選礦廠是把礦產轉成黃餅(yellowcake)的關鍵路徑項目。而我們剛好擁有兩座。它們都是非常重要的資產,我們希望逆週期地做好準備;不僅是為了 Key Lake 在 MacArthur River 結束後的情況,更是為了未來任何取代 MacArthur River 的項目——你應該把那座選礦廠視為更接近「永久性」(in-perpetuity)的資產。所以,我們希望具備投資它的財務能力,以支撐我們的紀律策略。並且請記得,隨著鈾與燃料服務,以及西屋所提供的產品與服務的價格走強,那些價格的上行仍在我們前方。服務長期市場的結果是,你會在未來逐步捕捉到那些價格。因此,綜合以上,我同意你的看法,我們正處於一個極其強勁的財務狀況。

  • That financial position is going to allow us various growth options, investment options, as well as return of capital options. But at the moment, while we're in a disciplined position waiting for this market to get to replacement rate, we will remain disciplined financially to support that strategy.

    這樣的財務狀況將使我們擁有各種成長選項、投資選項,以及資本回饋選項。但目前,當我們仍在一個有紀律的位置、等待市場達到替代成本水準時,我們將在財務上保持紀律,以支持該策略。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lawson Winder with Bank of America

    美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Lawson Winder

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Thank you very much, operator.

    非常感謝,接線員。

  • And hello, Tim and Grant. Good morning. And then I think I would just say quick congratulations to Heidi, Leah and Jill.

    Tim 和 Grant,你們好。早安。另外我想先快速恭喜 Heidi、Leah 和 Jill。

  • For my question, could I.

    關於我的問題,我是否可以

  • Perhaps drill down a little bit on your commentary around supply. So your Q3 market update highlights the delays at the Kamoco Sulfuric Acid plant, H1ymoon, lance, DASA, several assets. I mean, at roughly $90 to $100 uranium and just putting aside the size of the contract book, but just thinking about $90 to $100 uranium, do you believe enough supply in the market can actually be financed and brought online?

    更深入追問一下你們對供給面的評論。你們第三季(Q3)的市場更新提到 Kamoco 硫酸廠、H1ymoon、lance、DASA 等多項資產的延遲。我的意思是,在鈾價大約每磅90到100美元的情況下——先不談合約簿的規模——但單就每磅90到100美元的鈾價來看,你認為市場上是否真的能有足夠的供給被融資並投入上線?

  • Or does the incentive price need to move materially higher?

    還是說,誘因價格需要實質上再往上移動?

  • Unidentified Company Representative1

    Unidentified Company Representative1

  • It's a great question, Lawson. I think our actions speak really loudly that we believe the incentive or production economic price. Of uranium needs to move higher.

    這是個很好的問題,Lawson。我認為我們的行動已非常清楚地表明,我們相信鈾的誘因價格或生產經濟價格需要更高。

  • In response to Oris's question, I just reminded folks that we continue to be in supply discipline. We don't have plans to run MacArthur Key at its full license capacity. Cameco and Kazatomprom together don't have a plan yet to flex JV Inkai 20% above its subsoil use.

    回應 Oris 的問題時,我剛提醒大家,我們仍維持供給紀律。我們沒有計畫讓 MacArthur Key 以其完整核准產能運轉。Cameco 與 Kazatomprom 目前也尚未有計畫,將合資企業(JV)Inkai 的產量在其地下資源使用(subsoil use)許可之上再彈性提高20%。

  • Our Rabbit Lake mine and mill remains in care and maintenance and our US mines remain in care and maintenance. That should be a very clear signal to the market that we believe as long as we are below replacement rate, that suggests more demand has to come to the market to not only meet run rate requirements, but also to restock a market that has been destocked. And this is just based upon reactors being saved.

    我們的 Rabbit Lake 礦場與選礦廠仍處於維護保養(care and maintenance)狀態,而我們在美國的礦場也仍處於維護保養狀態。這應該向市場釋放非常明確的訊號:只要我們仍低於替代成本水準,就表示必須有更多需求進入市場,不僅要滿足運轉率需求,也要為已去庫存化(destocked)的市場補庫存。而這僅僅是基於反應爐被保留運轉的情況。

  • Reactors that are being brought back from shutdown, reactors that are going through subsequent license renewals and operates as well as the known new builds, this doesn't include a massive expectation or halo of say AI-driven nuclear development. This is just on the base case of kind of the known established nuclear business.

    包括從停機狀態恢復運轉的反應爐、進行後續延役(license renewals)並持續運轉的反應爐,以及已知的新建機組;這還不包含對例如 AI 驅動核能發展所帶來的大幅預期或光環效應。這只是基於已知、既有的核能產業基本情境。

  • And we look at a supply picture that is very different depletion is occurring in the big assets that fuel buyers have relied upon for years, and those need to be replaced.

    而我們看到的供給圖景非常不同:燃料買方多年來所依賴的大型資產正在枯竭(depletion),而這些必須被替代。

  • Projects that have been promised to come back to the market are struggling. They're struggling with budgets. They're struggling with time frames. They're meeting the reality of actually producing beyond a PowerPoint presentation. And those secondary supplies. That have been the historic stopgap, the historic security blanket for fuel buyers are gone. So you look at a durable demand picture going up, you look at a supply picture falling off, a widening gap of run rate requirements that can be delayed or they can be deferred, but they absolutely cannot be avoided forever. And that all suggests. That we need to see higher prices to incent the conversion of resources into reserves, to incent expanding production that has brownfield leverage and obviously to incent greenfield. Now, it is really important to say I am not saying there's going to be a uranium shortage that's going to jeopardize the nuclear revival. I'm saying as long as utilities. Come to the realization that uranium, the product for which there's no substitute and its required services, is the true long lead item in the nuclear industry, and that then is reflected in replacement rate levels of long-term contracting, we will see a very healthy move to production economic pricing and a very healthy contracting cycle. We've seen markets like this before. Our discipline and our focus on value will be rewarded.

    那些曾被承諾會回到市場的專案正面臨困難。它們在預算上遇到困難。它們在時程上遇到困難。它們正在面對一個現實:真正把產量做出來,遠不只是 PowerPoint 簡報。而那些次級供給——歷史上作為燃料買方的應急補缺、歷史上的安全毯——已經消失了。因此,你看到耐久的需求圖景在上升,供給圖景在下滑,運轉率需求的缺口在擴大;這些需求可以延後、可以遞延,但絕對不可能永遠避免。而這一切都意味著,我們需要看到更高的價格,才能激勵把資源轉換為儲量(reserves),激勵擴大具棕地(brownfield)槓桿的產能,當然也才能激勵綠地(greenfield)開發。現在,非常重要的是我要說清楚:我不是在說會出現鈾短缺,進而危及核能復興。我是在說,只要公用事業公司意識到鈾——這個沒有替代品的產品——以及其所需服務,才是核能產業真正的長交期項目(long lead item),並且這點反映在達到替代成本水準的長期簽約量上,我們就會看到生產經濟定價的健康上移,以及非常健康的簽約循環。我們以前見過這樣的市場。我們的紀律與對價值的專注將會得到回報。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Thanks very much, Grant. And if I could follow-up on the discussion around the Korea agreement. I mean, I think it's a really important development.

    非常感謝你,Grant。如果我可以就韓國協議的討論再追問一下。我的意思是,我認為這是一項非常重要的進展。

  • The long lead time items. Mean, perhaps you could identify some of those long lead time items. But I mean, if not, just what kind of timelines are we looking at?

    關於長交期項目。我的意思是,也許你可以指出其中一些長交期項目。但如果不方便的話,我是想問,我們大概在看什麼樣的時間表?

  • If you were to order the long lead time items by year-end as proposed in what was released to the market, I mean, when would those start showing up on site? And then just kind of a broader question, there are multiple sites in the U.S. That are in various stages of permitting as sites for nuclear reactors.

    如果如同對市場發布的內容所提議,在年底前下單長交期項目,那些項目大概什麼時候會開始運抵工地?然後再問一個更廣泛的問題,美國有多個場址。它們正處於不同階段的許可流程,作為核反應爐的場址。

  • Has there been any progress made, to your knowledge, on site selection for specific new AP1000 reactor sites?

    就你所知,針對特定新AP1000反應爐場址的選址工作,有沒有取得任何進展?

  • Unidentified Company Representative1

    Unidentified Company Representative1

  • Yes, so that was your second question, and you threw about eight questions into it, Lawson, so really well done on your part. Let me unpack it and start with your last question, which is, actually, I think the Department of Energy, under the leadership of Julie Kozaraki several years ago, identified a bunch of sites. In the US where there were already licenses for nuclear new build, and those were actually licenses that were provided decades ago when that site was anticipated to have more reactors than are currently there. So there are operating reactor sites that have expansion capabilities.

    是的,所以那是你的第二個問題,而且你在裡面塞了大概八個問題,Lawson,你做得真不錯。我來拆解一下,先從你最後一個問題開始。其實,我認為美國能源部在幾年前由Julie Kozaraki領導時,已經識別出一批場址。在美國,這些場址原本就已取得核電新建的許可,而那些許可其實是幾十年前核准的,當時預期該場址會有比目前更多的反應爐。所以有一些正在運轉的反應爐場址具備擴建能力。

  • And of course, the US government on a number of occasions has talked about using federal facilities, federal sites in order to meet. More national security type energy security objectives. So I would say there is no lack of locations to put gigawatt scale reactors and we have seen quite a healthy conversation going on about identifying those sites. It's important to understand those are not our announcements to make. If they're federal sites, those are the announcements of the federal government of the United States.

    當然,美國政府在多個場合也談到,為了達成。更多偏國家安全、能源安全的目標,會使用聯邦設施、聯邦場址。所以我會說,適合部署GW級反應爐的地點並不缺乏,而且我們也看到關於識別這些場址的討論相當熱絡。重要的是要理解,這些不是由我們來發布的公告。如果是聯邦場址,那些公告應由美國聯邦政府發布。

  • And if they are utility sites, those are the announcements of the utilities. But there is a lot of momentum around trying to figure out the best sites to meet the best transmission and distribution options to meet the best investment. Locations, whether for compute or big industrial opportunities.

    如果是公用事業的場址,那些公告則由公用事業公司發布。但目前確實有很強的動能在嘗試找出最佳場址,以匹配最佳的輸電與配電方案,並對應最佳的投資。地點,無論是用於運算(算力)或大型工業機會。

  • When you think about the long lead items, part of what is exciting about the DOE long lead item program is it actually accelerates the path to first nuclear concrete because in a normal.

    談到長交期項目,DOE長交期項目計畫令人振奮的一部分在於,它其實能加速走到首次核級混凝土(first nuclear concrete)的路徑,因為在一般。

  • Flow, you would begin with origination as we have in our enhanced disclosure, which I encourage everybody to read. You'd begin with origination and then you'd move to front-end engineering and design on a reactor. Then you'd get into early services contracts and somewhere around the end of that period, a regulated utility or a merchant operator or a state.

    流程中,你會先從我們在加強版揭露中所提到的「案源開發」(origination)開始,我也鼓勵大家去閱讀。你會先從案源開發開始,接著進入反應爐的前端工程與設計(FEED)。然後你會進入早期服務合約,而在那段期間接近尾聲時,受監管的公用事業、商業化營運商或州級。

  • Energy provider would make a final investment decision and that final investment decision is what would then trigger the ordering of the long lead items. Things like the reactor pressure vessel, the steam generators, the reactor coolant pumps, the instrumentation and control modules, the structural module plates and the steel work required would be some of the big long lead items. And that would occur only after FID, but I think the magic of the DOE program is to find a structure that allows for those long lead items to be ordered pre-FID and to have a structure to encourage those orders, have that material start to move through the supply chain.

    能源供應商會做出最終投資決策(FID),而這個最終投資決策才會觸發長交期項目的下單。像是反應爐壓力容器、蒸汽發生器、反應爐冷卻劑泵、儀控(I&C)模組、結構模組板件,以及所需的鋼構工程,會是一些主要的長交期項目。而這通常只會在FID之後發生,但我認為DOE計畫的「魔法」在於,找到一種結構,允許在FID之前就下單這些長交期項目,並建立一套機制來鼓勵這些訂單,讓材料開始在供應鏈中流動。

  • Shrink the supply chain timeframes from what might be a two to four year window to a one to three-year window and take away those long lead items as a critical path item to first nuclear concrete. And then, of course, the more orders you put into the market, the more learning effects, the more you're going to ride those industrial performance curves, and the more this is going to become just a perpetual motion machine.

    把供應鏈的時間框架從可能的兩到四年縮短到一到三年,並把長交期項目從通往首次核級混凝土的關鍵路徑項目中移除。當然,你投放到市場的訂單越多,學習效應越強,你就越能沿著工業績效曲線前進,而這一切就會越來越像是一台永動機。

  • When I said earlier we are fully optimistic about the U.S. Interest in gigawatt-scale reactors, it is because of this holistic, let's figure out how to identify sites. Let's figure out how to finance. Let's figure out how to accelerate the permitting. Let's figure out how to move long lead items away from being a critical path item to first nuclear concrete by moving it away from the final investment decision. These are all positive data points.

    我先前說我們對美國。對GW級反應爐的興趣完全保持樂觀,原因就在於這種整體性的做法:我們來想辦法識別場址。我們來想辦法融資。我們來想辦法加速許可審批。我們來想辦法把長交期項目從通往首次核級混凝土的關鍵路徑中移除,方法是讓它不再受制於最終投資決策。這些都是正面的數據點。

  • I think reflect just the amount of interest in nuclear new build that we're seeing in the U.S., but also in other jurisdictions.

    我認為這反映了我們在美國看到的核電新建興趣之高,同時也包括其他司法管轄區。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Thank you. I appreciate those comments.

    謝謝。我很感謝這些評論。

  • Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer

    Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer

  • Lawson, thanks for your kind words about Heidi. We're still in denial here.

    Lawson,謝謝你對Heidi的溢美之詞。我們這邊仍然處於否認階段。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Shooter with William Blair

    William Blair的Mark Shooter

  • Mark Shooter - Equity Analyst

    Mark Shooter - Equity Analyst

  • All right.

    好的。

  • Thank you, everybody.

    謝謝大家。

  • You mentioned the increasing engagement with utilities, but the contracting remains non-linear and below replacement. So I guess my first question is, can you just explain a little bit of the dynamic of how the utilities can go over 15 years below replacement rate? Did they overbuy back then? Can you give us a little bit of history of that?

    你提到與公用事業的互動日益增加,但簽約仍呈非線性,且低於補庫(replacement)水準。所以我第一個問題是,你能否稍微解釋一下,公用事業怎麼會在長達15年的時間裡都低於補庫率?他們當年買太多了嗎?能否給我們一點這方面的歷史背景?

  • Unidentified Company Representative1

    Unidentified Company Representative1

  • Mark, yeah, it's a great question. I could give you a lot of history on that, but I'm looking at Corey and he's like, he knows brevity is not my friend. So I'll try to just be a little bit briefer on this. So what's happened in our market?

    Mark,是的,這是個很好的問題。我可以給你很多歷史背景,但我看著Corey,他的表情像是在說:他知道「簡潔」不是我的強項。所以我會盡量在這部分講得更精簡一些。那麼,我們市場發生了什麼?

  • Mark Shooter - Equity Analyst

    Mark Shooter - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks, Corey.

    謝謝你,Corey。

  • Unidentified Company Representative1

    Unidentified Company Representative1

  • What has happened in the uranium business over time is that it really responds to kind of peak and valley behavior. So when we see.

    長期以來,鈾產業的情況是,它確實會對某種高峰與低谷的行為作出反應。所以當我們看到。

  • Periods of a supply shock or a demand shock. And let me just point to two because you asked for historical reference. Probably the easiest supply shock you can point to in the uranium business was the flooding of the Cigar Lake development project in 2006. Not only did it create a fear in the market that Cigar Lake would be delayed, it actually created an inaccurate.

    供給衝擊或需求衝擊的時期。我就舉兩個例子,因為你要歷史參照。在鈾產業中,最容易指出的一個供給衝擊,大概就是2006年Cigar Lake開發專案的淹水事件。它不僅讓市場擔心Cigar Lake會延宕,還在市場上造成了一種不正確的。

  • Narrative in the market that Cigar Lake would never be mined. And that created a panic. So you had utilities at the time who were actually well covered for, say, the next five years.

    敘事:認為Cigar Lake永遠不會被開採。這引發了恐慌。因此,當時一些公用事業其實已經對例如未來五年的需求有相當充足的覆蓋。

  • There was panic in the market and contracting not only went to replacement rate, it went well above replacement rate. There were a few years where utilities would have been consuming about GBP160 million globally on an annual basis and you saw nearly GBP250 million of annual long-term contracting. So that is a period of over contracting driven by a supply shock, which then of course.

    市場出現恐慌,簽約量不僅達到補庫水準,還遠高於補庫水準。有幾年,公用事業在全球每年的消耗量大約是1.6億磅(lb),但你看到年度長期合約簽約量接近2.5億磅。所以那是一段由供給衝擊所驅動的過度簽約期,接著當然。

  • Leads to a period of complacency. So that over-contracting drove up prices. Those prices encouraged supply. Supply started to show up in the market as complacency began to set in, and then the curve kind of reversed on itself. A demand shock hit the uranium business in 2010, and that was the Chinese showing up in the long-term market for the first time and. GBP52 million long-term forward in one month. They weren't buying for 2011 to 2015. They were buying for 2015 to 2023, 2024, 2025. So they created another push in the market where we went above replacement rate contracting. Think of it as a big restocking and then Fukushima happened.

    導致一段自滿期。因此過度簽約推高了價格。那些價格又鼓勵了供給。隨著自滿情緒開始形成,供給開始在市場上出現,然後曲線某種程度上就反向回轉。2010 年鈾產業遭遇了一次需求衝擊,那就是中國首次出現在長期市場上,並且。在一個月內做了 5,200 萬磅的長期遠期。他們不是為 2011 到 2015 年買。他們是為 2015 到 2023、2024、2025 年買。因此他們在市場上又創造了一波推力,使我們的簽約水準高於替代成本(replacement rate)的簽約。把它想成一次大型補庫存,然後福島事件發生了。

  • And so what we've seen is actually utilities. Living off the stocking that occurred, the over-contracting in the supply and demand-driven shocks, which carried them through this window, but now we find ourselves in a position where forward requirements are growing and.

    所以我們實際看到的是公用事業公司。靠著先前發生的備貨、供需驅動的衝擊下的過度簽約所累積的庫存過日子,這讓他們撐過了這段窗口期,但現在我們發現自己處在一個遠期需求正在成長的狀態,而且。

  • The primary supply stack is coming off because if you keep prices too low for too long, you don't build the sustainable primary supply stack. And the secondary supplies that were the result of the stocking that came from the over-contracting have been destocked. And so they're not the plug in the market that they used to be.

    主要供給堆疊正在下滑,因為如果你把價格壓得太低、時間又太久,你就無法建立可持續的主要供給堆疊。而由過度簽約所帶來的備貨所形成的次級供給也已經去庫存了。因此它們不再像以前那樣成為市場的「塞子/緩衝」。

  • And so we find ourselves in this supply-demand gap. And you ask about utilities on a go-forward basis, I would say we do not run into a customer who doesn't understand there's a supply-demand gap. It more has to do with the bid-ask spread of the price required to fill it. And I've said time and time again on this call that we're just being very disciplined right now. We've seen these markets before. We think we have a very. Very accurate view of how fast primary supply can really truly come on in this market. We think that's in the favor of incumbent producers. We think that bid-ask spread will push to where we want it to be, and that's why we're disciplined. There's nothing unusual about this market. We've seen it before. And if you don't believe me that this is the way it occurs, just look at the conversion market, which has already gone through it.

    因此我們發現自己處在這個供需缺口之中。你問到未來公用事業公司的情況,我會說我們沒有遇到任何一個客戶不理解存在供需缺口。更多是取決於填補缺口所需價格的買賣價差(bid-ask spread)。我在這通電話裡一再說過,我們現在只是非常自律。我們以前見過這些市場。我們認為我們對於主要供給在這個市場上真正能以多快速度上來,有一個非常。非常精準的看法。我們認為這對既有生產商有利。我們認為那個買賣價差會推進到我們希望的位置,這就是我們保持自律的原因。這個市場沒有什麼不尋常。我們以前見過。如果你不相信事情就是這樣發生的,就看看轉換(conversion)市場,它已經走過這一段了。

  • Mark Shooter - Equity Analyst

    Mark Shooter - Equity Analyst

  • In fact, that was really helpful. And Corey, thanks for not cutting them off too early. I do appreciate the history.

    事實上,那真的很有幫助。Corey,也謝謝你沒有太早把他們打斷。我很感謝這段歷史回顧。

  • Maybe a shorter follow-up here. Just do you have an estimate of when that oversupply seems to run out? And seemingly, as you had just mentioned, the utility customers, they do understand. It's not like they're in denial. They do understand what's coming. But what do you think is what. What event or point kind of breaks the dam. And maybe nobody wants to go through the door first, like you talked about the bid ask spread, but I'm assuming everyone's kind of holding out and then maybe it'll be a rush.

    這裡可能一個更短的追問。你是否能估計那個供給過剩大概什麼時候會耗盡?而且看起來,如你剛剛提到的,公用事業客戶他們確實理解。他們並不是在否認。他們確實知道將要發生什麼。但你認為是什麼。什麼事件或時間點會有點像「決堤」一樣。也許沒有人想當第一個走進門的人,就像你談到買賣價差那樣,但我猜大家都在觀望,然後也許會突然一窩蜂。

  • Just explain some of the dynamics of what do you think breaks the dam open.

    請解釋一下你認為是什麼動態會把那道堤壩打開。

  • Unidentified Company Representative1

    Unidentified Company Representative1

  • While I've mentioned a few times that we're not at replacement rate contracting globally, I don't want to say everyone is in denial because there have been a number of utilities who have been contracting. We have seen long-term contracting in the last couple of years touch GBP100 million or go over and close to GBP120 million. So there are some who are looking forward. Classic example is Bruce Power. Bruce Power buys 100% of their uranium requirements from Cameco. We have a contract that lasts until 2040 and it's an evergreen contract. There's an example of the utility that has treated uranium as a long lead item and taken the risk of future uranium off the table with a reliable supplier. Not everybody has done that. When we hear from utilities that understand they need to buy uranium forward but just aren't sure that this is the moment to layer in big volumes, it's usually. It's usually a combination of things. They would identify things like the promises that you find in PowerPoint presentations of potential new producers.

    我提過幾次,我們在全球範圍內還沒有達到替代成本(replacement rate)的簽約水準;我不想說每個人都在否認,因為確實有不少公用事業公司一直在簽約。過去幾年我們看到長期簽約量觸及 1 億磅,甚至超過、接近 1.2 億磅。所以有些人是在往前看。典型例子是 Bruce Power。Bruce Power 100% 的鈾需求都向 Cameco 採購。我們有一份合約一路到 2040 年,而且是常青(evergreen)合約。這就是把鈾視為長交期項目(long lead item)的公用事業公司例子,透過可靠供應商把未來鈾的風險從桌面上移除。不是每個人都這麼做。當我們聽到公用事業公司說他們理解需要提前買鈾,但不確定此刻是否要分層(layer in)進大量採購時,通常。通常是多種因素的組合。他們會指出一些因素,例如你在 PowerPoint 簡報裡看到的潛在新生產商的承諾。

  • If you are a utility and you go to your average uranium investment conference.

    如果你是一家公用事業公司,去參加一般的鈾投資會議。

  • You would walk away thinking, for example, there's going to be GBP45 million of additional uranium production coming out of the Athabasca Basin in the early 2030s. And as the only company that actually produces uranium at scale in the Athabasca Basin, we don't see that as even remotely possible. But if you're a utility, why would you doubt that? Because somebody just stood up at an investor conference and said that that was the case.

    你可能會帶著這樣的印象離開:例如,2030 年代初期,阿薩巴斯卡盆地(Athabasca Basin)將新增 4,500 萬磅的鈾產量。而作為阿薩巴斯卡盆地唯一一家真正具規模生產鈾的公司,我們認為那甚至完全不可能。但如果你是公用事業公司,你為什麼會懷疑?因為剛剛就有人在投資人會議上站起來說情況就是如此。

  • And some utilities would say, well, okay, even if they're wrong by half, that still feels like a lot of uranium that has not yet been sold. So I'm going to get offered a lot of uranium. So maybe I'm still in a good position as a utility to have these new producers come and offer me uranium and maybe I'll some price opportunities. So that's one of the things. Another one that we often hear is utilities wondering.

    有些公用事業公司會說,好吧,就算他們錯了一半,那仍然感覺像是有很多尚未售出的鈾。所以我會被提供很多鈾。所以也許作為公用事業公司,我仍然處在一個不錯的位置,讓這些新生產商來向我提供鈾,或許我還會有一些價格機會。所以那是其中一個因素。另一個我們常聽到的是,公用事業公司在想。

  • If we're going to go back to a more globalized market.

    我們是否會回到一個更全球化的市場。

  • The bifurcation of the uranium market has been a really important characteristic in the last couple of years, in particular the ban on Russian material as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And then occasionally you'll see things in the market like... The US government wanting to import diesel from Russia on an emergency basis, and that will get some thinking, oh, well, if diesel can get an emergency provision, can we push the US government to do the same with Russian supplies? I would just remind people that that's a legislative ban.

    過去幾年鈾市場的分裂(bifurcation)是一個非常重要的特徵,特別是因俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而對俄羅斯材料實施禁令。然後你偶爾會在市場上看到一些事情,例如……美國政府想在緊急情況下從俄羅斯進口柴油,這會讓一些人開始想:喔,如果柴油可以有緊急豁免條款,我們能不能推動美國政府對俄羅斯供應也做同樣的事?我只想提醒大家,那是一項立法禁令。

  • Against Russian supplies. I think the bifurcation of the market is going to continue to be a feature. So as we look forward, we wouldn't bet on a re-globalization of the uranium market, nor would we bet on folks who have never produced uranium at scale producing in record timeframes. So we just think that's in our favor, and Mark, that's why we're disciplined right now.

    針對俄羅斯供應。我認為市場分裂將會持續成為一項特徵。因此往前看,我們不會押注鈾市場重新全球化,也不會押注那些從未具規模生產過鈾的人能在破紀錄的時間內投產。所以我們只是認為這對我們有利,而 Mark,這就是我們現在保持自律的原因。

  • Very helpful.

    非常有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lawrence Alexander, Jefferies.

    Lawrence Alexander,Jefferies。

  • Laurence Alexander - Analyst

    Laurence Alexander - Analyst

  • Good morning. Could you extend that discussion to how you're thinking about the pros and cons for investment in conversion because peers seem to be sort of moving forward or at least thinking about kind of decisions in the next 12, 24 months on.

    早安。能否把剛才的討論延伸到你們如何看待投資於轉化(conversion)的利弊?因為同業似乎正逐步推進,或至少正在思考在未來12到24個月內做出相關決策。

  • Conversion and enrichment capacity, do you feel any can you talk about either hurdle rates or how you think about the incentives you need to see or whether you want to take a certain amount of share? Like just how do you think about what's your approach there in light of what the attractive dynamics you see in the upstream?

    就轉化與濃縮產能而言,你們覺得——能否談談例如門檻報酬率(hurdle rates),或你們如何看待需要看到哪些誘因,或是否希望取得一定的市占?也就是說,鑑於你們在上游看到的吸引人動態,你們在這方面的做法是什麼?

  • Unidentified Company Representative1

    Unidentified Company Representative1

  • Yeah, thank you for that question, Lawrence. It is a good one because as we all know.

    是的,謝謝你的問題,Lawrence。這是個好問題,因為我們都知道。

  • There are two really important facts in the nuclear fuel cycle. And one is a reactor can't run on a PowerPoint presentation. And number two is a reactor can't run on raw yellow cake. It needs to be fabricated into a fuel bundle. So being a mining and a milling company is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to create maximum value across the fuel cycle. It's why we love our strategic asset base so much because we participate right. That cycle.

    核燃料循環中有兩個非常重要的事實。第一,反應爐不能靠一份PowerPoint簡報運轉。第二,反應爐也不能靠原始黃餅(yellow cake)運轉。它需要被製造成燃料束。因此,作為一家採礦與選礦公司是必要條件,但不足以在整個燃料循環中創造最大價值。這也是為什麼我們如此喜愛我們的策略性資產基礎,因為我們有參與其中。那個循環。

  • Conversion is a really interesting market and it must be really good and robust time because there are apparently a bunch of new conversion companies that are going to be created in the next couple of years. Conversion is a very tough business. There's a reason why there's just a few people in it. It's probably the hardest part of the nuclear fuel cycle to operate and sustain.

    轉化是一個非常有意思的市場,而且現在顯然是個非常好、非常強勁的時期,因為看起來未來幾年會出現一批新的轉化公司。轉化是一門非常艱難的生意。這也是為什麼真正從事的人不多。它可能是核燃料循環中最難營運並維持的環節。

  • And the technologies behind conversion are proprietary they are controlled nuclear technologies, and developing them is actually a process that's very expensive to design and takes. Not only years but decades to properly develop licensed permit and deploy in a reliable way.

    而且轉化背後的技術是專有的,屬於受控的核技術;開發這些技術其實是一個成本非常高的設計流程,而且需要時間。不僅是數年,而是數十年,才能真正完善地開發、取得許可與核准,並以可靠的方式部署。

  • As we think about that conversion business going forward, we do expect conversion prices to remain strong because of the constraint in the market. The one thing. That hangs over the conversion market and any Western investments, whether they're Camecos, but I would say the other Western converters have publicly expressed the same concern is what would happen if we went back to a more globalized market, if the Western market welcomed Russian. SWU or Russian enrichment back in because remember that Russian enrichment service has to be attached to something and that something is enriched uranium products. So the uranium and the conversion needs to be in it and that has been very damaging to the conversion market in the past. And so the discipline you see from the converters is making sure we all understand. That none of us are going to deploy capital to expand conversion and then find ourselves competing with a Russian dual-use service that's never production economic priced, which is why conversion fell to terribly low levels in the past. So our discipline is really more driven by the policy certainty and the market access certainty.

    就我們對未來轉化業務的看法而言,我們確實預期轉化價格會因市場供給受限而維持強勢。有一件事。一直籠罩著轉化市場以及任何西方投資——不論是Cameco的投資,我想其他西方轉化商也公開表達過同樣的疑慮——那就是:如果我們回到更全球化的市場,如果西方市場重新接納俄羅斯的SWU(分離功單位)或俄羅斯的濃縮服務回來,會發生什麼?因為請記得,俄羅斯的濃縮服務必須依附在某些東西上,而那個東西就是濃縮鈾產品。因此其中必須包含鈾與轉化環節,而這在過去對轉化市場造成了非常大的傷害。而這在過去對轉化市場造成了非常大的傷害。所以你看到轉化商所展現的紀律,是要確保我們都理解。我們任何人都不會投入資本去擴張轉化,然後發現自己在與一種俄羅斯的軍民兩用服務競爭,而那種服務從來不是以具生產經濟性的價格來定價;這也是為什麼過去轉化價格曾跌到極低水準。因此,我們的紀律其實更多是由政策確定性與市場准入確定性所驅動。

  • And as we get that will drive long-term contracting where utilities will step forward, sign long-term contracts at these historic prices. The tenors of those contracts will go out. Those longer-term contracts will then allow us to invest into growing conversion supply. But like other parts of the fuel cycle, it really is contract-driven production decisions as opposed to simply forecast-driven production. Decisions.

    而當我們取得這些確定性後,就會推動長期合約的簽訂,公用事業(utilities)將會站出來,以這些歷史高位的價格簽下長期合約。這些合約的期限會拉長。而這些更長期的合約,接著就能讓我們投資於擴增轉化供給。但就像燃料循環的其他環節一樣,生產決策確實是由合約驅動,而不是單純由預測驅動的生產。決策。

  • Laurence Alexander - Analyst

    Laurence Alexander - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Thanks, Lawrence.

    謝謝你,Lawrence。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tim Gitzel for any closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給Tim Gitzel,請他做結語。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Well, thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone who was able to join us today.

    好的,謝謝接線員,也謝謝今天能加入我們的各位。

  • While we watch broader market volatility affect sentiment in the nuclear space, it's important to distinguish between changes in market sentiment and changes in underlying fundamentals. In our view, the fundamentals supporting nuclear energy remain stronger than ever.

    當我們看到更廣泛的市場波動影響核能領域的情緒時,重要的是要區分市場情緒的變化與基本面變化。在我們看來,支撐核能的基本面仍比以往任何時候都更強勁。

  • The reactors operating around the world today continue to require fuel cycle capacity remains constrained in the Western market, and utilities continue to evaluate capacity growth plans and long-term fuel requirements in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.

    目前全球運轉中的反應爐仍持續需要燃料循環產能;西方市場的產能仍然受限;而在日益不確定的地緣政治環境下,公用事業也持續評估產能擴增計畫與長期燃料需求。

  • Cameco remains well positioned to support the existing and future needs of the nuclear industry while focusing on value for shareholders, customers, and communities. Thanks again to everybody. Have a wonderful weekend.

    Cameco仍處於有利位置,能在聚焦為股東、客戶與社區創造價值的同時,支持核能產業現有與未來的需求。再次感謝各位。祝各位週末愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This brings to an end today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話。

  • Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.

    感謝您的參與,祝您有美好的一天。