Crown Castle Inc (CCI) 2009 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning. Welcome to the Crown Castle International Corporation fourth quarter 2009 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Fiona McKone. Please go ahead, ma'am.

  • - VP Finance

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to those who have just come off the AT&T earnings call and thank you all for joining us as we review our fourth quarter and full-year 2009 results. With me on the call this morning are Ben Moreland, Crown Castle Chief Executive Officer, and Jay Brown, Crown Castle Chief Financial Officer.

  • To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investor section of our website at crowncastle.com, which we will discuss throughout the call this morning. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements and information based on management's current expectations. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurances that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Such forward looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Information about the potential factors that could affect the Company's financial results are available in the press release and in the Risk Factor section of the Company's filings with the SEC. Should one or more of these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary significantly from those expected. Our statements are made as of today, January 28, 2010, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

  • In addition, today's call includes discussions -- discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, recurring cash flow and recurring cash flow per share. Tables reconciling such non-GAAP financial measures are available under the Investor section of the Company's website at crowncastle.com.

  • With that I will turn the call over to Jay.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Thank you Fiona and good morning, everyone. We had a tremendous 2009 on many fronts as highlighted on slide three of the presentation posted on our website. Let me quickly summarize some of our accomplishments and then I will take you through them in greater detail.

  • I'm very pleased with our with our excellent fourth quarter and full-year 2009 results, which reflect the continued demand for wireless infrastructure. Throughout the 2009, we have consistently delivered results above our original expectations. For the full-year, we posted Site Rental revenue growth of 10%. Site Rental gross margin and Services gross margin growth of 15% and 20%, respectively. And adjusted EBITDA growth of 17% compared to 2008. Each of these was considerably above our expectations as we ended 2008.

  • Second, we had a strong application volume from the wireless carriers to go on our US towers throughout all of 2009. In fact, applications for the year were up 26% in the US, when compared to activity in 2008.

  • Third, we achieved refinancing goals to [ladder] and significantly extend debt maturities with completion of six financings since the beginning of 2009, raising $5.2 billion of debt. The completion of these refinancings means that we are now positioned to resume investing activities that will enhance long-term recurring cash flow per share.

  • With that let me turn to slide four as I highlight some of the results for the fourth quarter and then onto the full-year 2009. During the fourth quarter, we generated Site Rental revenue of $403 million, up 13% from the fourth quarter of 2008. Site Rental gross margin, defined as Site Rental revenues plus the cost of operations, was $284 million, up 18% from the fourth quarter of 2008.

  • Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2009 was $264 million, up 17% from the fourth quarter of 2008. It is important to note that these growth rates were achieved almost entirely through organic growth on assets we owned as of October 1, 2008, as revenue growth from acquisitions was negligible.

  • Recurring cash flow, defined as adjusted EBITDA less interest expense, less sustaining capital expenditures, was $132 million, compared to $125 million in the fourth quarter of 2008. And recurring cash flow per share was $0.46 compared to $0.44 in the fourth quarter of 2008.

  • Also during the fourth quarter, we spent $62 million on capital expenditures. These capital expenditures included the resumption of spending on our Land Lease Purchase Program. Over the course of 2009, we continued to very successful in extending maturity of land leases, as we extended 1700 leases with an average term extension of 29 years. I would expect we will continue to increase the level of spending on purchases of land beneath our towers throughout all of 2010, as well as continue to extend the maturity of the remaining ground leases.

  • For the full-year 2009, as illustrated on slide five of the presentation, Site Rental revenues were approximately $1.5 billion up 10% from full-year 2008. Site Rental gross margin grew 15% from full-year 2008 to $1.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for the full-year 2009 was $1 billion, up 17% from the full-year 2008. I would note that due to our rigorous control on cost in 2009, all of the growth in Site Rental revenue found it's way to Site Rental gross margin and adjusted EBITDA.

  • Recurring cash flow increased 11% from full-year 2008, to $539 million, even after the impact of approximately $90 million of additional interest expense in 2009, as a result of our refinancing activity. Recurring cash flow per share increased 9% from full-year 2008 to $1.88 per share for the full-year 2009.

  • Moving to the outlook for the first quarter and full-year 2010 as shown on slide six and seven, we are excited about our expected growth in Site Rental revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2010 as demand for our sites continues. While we only a month in to 2010, we are seeing encouraging signs of this growth as application activity is slightly ahead of the application activity we saw in January 2009 and consistent with expectations in 2010 outlook that we provided in November of last year.

  • Before I move on, I would like to take a moment to dive into the details of our 2010 outlook for interest expense, given the number of moving pieces that occurred during the last four months. In order to help with the reconciliation we provided additional detail on slide eight. The schedule outlines the changes in interest expense from 2009 to 2010, due to the full-year impact of the debt we issued throughout 2009. The recent $1.9 billion we issued earlier this month to refinance the 2005 tower revenue notes and the affect of the debt we have bought back in the open market.

  • As you can see from the graph, ignoring the impact of forward starting interest rate swaps, we expect interest expense in 2010 to be approximately equal to that of 2009. I would like to draw your attention to the right-hand side of the page to the line labeled Amortization of Interest Rate Swaps. As noted in the press release, this charge predominantly relates to the amortization of non-cash interest for the forward starting interest rate swaps put in place when we originally issued the 2005 tower revenue notes.

  • As illustrated on slide nine, upon the recent financing of these notes, the five-year forward starting interest rate swaps related to the 2005 notes continued to be deemed affective and accordingly, we are required to amortize the fair value of these swaps through our interest expense line. As such, we will recognize non-cash interest expense for each of next five years related to the interest rate swaps. I should note that the swaps related to the 2005 notes are due to be cash settled on or before June 2010, and the liability will ultimately be determined on the cash settlement date.

  • While the ultimate cash gain or loss related to swaps will be recognized when the swaps are settled, this is separate from the non-cash interest charge which will remain unchanged, regardless of the actual cash settlement amount.

  • Currently, as presented on slide ten, the liability on a settlement basis associated with all of our forward starting interest rates swaps is approximately $400 million. We have also provided sensitivities of these swaps to changes in interest rates.

  • With that detail out of the way, and returning back to the big picture, based on the aforementioned, we expect recurring cash flow to grow approximately 16% year-over-year ignoring non-cash interest expense associated with the forward starting interest rate swaps I just mentioned. I would expect that this growth rate will increase as we invest our remaining cash balances and recurring cash flow throughout 2010.

  • Turning to the balance sheet as shown on slide eleven and taking in to account all of the transactions to date, total net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA, as of December 31, 2009, was 5.7 times. Overall leverage, is down approximately 1.5 turns over the last two years, illustrating how quickly this business can be levered. Adjusted EBITDA to cash interest expense as of December 31, 2009 was approximately 2.6 times.

  • Further, after the completion of the 2010 notes offering, we spent $494 million to purchase $461 million of debt. The table at the bottom of the slide reflects the current debt balances. Given that we were able to maximize the proceeds of the 2010 notes at a very attractive rate, we were able to utilize the excess proceeds to retire more expensive debt while maintaining leverage neutral position.

  • Lastly, I just want to spend a couple of minutes summarizing the successful year that we had related to financing activity and what it means for 2010 and beyond. At the beginning of 2009, I outlined my objectives with respect to our balance sheet as shown on slide twelve. These goals were to refinance our near-term debt maturities without incurring any equity dilution to meaningfully extend our debt maturities over multiple years, to maintain a reasonable level of leverage that we believe will enhance shareholder returns, to ensure that we have the flexibility to invest our cash flow in activities we believe will maximize long-term recurring cash flow per share, and lastly to do this without meaningfully increasing, our then, run-rate interest expense. I'm pleased to say we accomplished all of these goals.

  • Turning to slide thirteen, in the last twelve months, we raised $5.2 billion of debt. Our recent $1.9 billion notes offering was issued at weighted average coupon of 5.75%, predominantly for ten-year paper, which is lower than the yield on the five-year paper we issued in 2006 and was the largest deal of its kind since 2007.

  • In addition to the very attractive coupon, we were able to spread the debt maturities over five, seven and ten years. Importantly, as a part of the terms of these new notes, we have the ability to divide the collateral securing these notes into separate pools of assets, if we so choose. The affect of this provision is that future refinancings of the notes could be accomplished through the issuance of a more traditional secured bond, a bank facility or a separate and smaller structured notes offering. This obviously increases our overall refinancing flexibility with regards to future refinancing options.

  • Also during the fourth quarter we extended and upsized our Legacy revolving credit facility, increasing the revolver to $400 million from $188 million and extending maturity from January 2010 to September 30, 2013. The revolving credit facility is currently undrawn.

  • Today, our weighted average years to expected maturity of our total indebtedness is substantially longer than any other company's in the tower industry. As we were able to extend the maturity of the debt we refinanced from approximately 18 months to nearly 8 years. As you can see on slide fourteen, the results of all of this refinancing activity is that we are now in a position to resume our historical practice of investing cash flow in activities we expect will maximize long-term recurring cash flow per share, as we believe this is the best measure of shareholder value creation.

  • As was our practice prior to 2009, we would expect these investing activities to include share purchases, land purchases, tower acquisitions and new tower and distributed antenna systems construction. I believe that the investment of our expected cash flows and areas related to our core tower business has the potential to meaningfully enhance our long-term growth rates and recurring cash flow per share.

  • Given our view of the importance of recurring cash flow per share, I'm pleased that we were able to accomplish the refinancing of our balance sheet without incurring any equity the dilution and without compromising our ability to continue to invest for the long-term.

  • Finally, as much fun as it is to talk about successful refinancing and the minutia of hedge accounting for interest rate swaps, I have to say I'm very glad we have turned our attention to allocation capital to enhanced recurring cash flow per share as we continue to execute around our core tower business. With that, I will turn the call over to Ben.

  • - President & CEO

  • Thank you, Jay. That's a lot to talk about on the balance sheet. Hopefully we are done with that for a while. I appreciate everybody joining this morning on the call. I want to take a couple of minutes to reflect on the tremendous year we had on a number of fronts.

  • First, as Jay has outlined, we have largely completed our refinancing activities with outcome that we are very proud of and have clearly surpassed our expectations when we started the year.

  • Next, throughout this challenging environment where we could have become distracted, the Company's financial results distinguished it among it's peers by focusing on execution for customers to delivering industry-leading customer service. I am pleased with the efforts of our team to execute at a very high level on multiple fronts, which has positioned us very well as we move into 2010. Today as we look forward, we have materially reduced the Company's risk profile and are excited to be returning to our historical ways of allocating discretionary capital to investments that add incremental growth to our already impressive operating results.

  • As Jay just mentioned, we had an excellent fourth quarter and full -year 2009, as applications to go on our sites increased 26% for the full-year of 2009, compared to 2008. We believe the increased application activity we enjoyed is consistent with the expected network investments over the coming years, fueled by the continued growth in the broader wireless and mobile Internet markets.

  • In addition to great year of site leasing, our US Services Business performed very well. Service revenues were up 15%, and Service margins were up 19% compared to the full-year of 2008. This is attributable to a higher take-rate on the part of our customers.

  • While we took a hiatus from investing our cash flow in 2009 to address our balance sheet, our long-term goal is simple and unchanged. We are focused on maximizing long-term recurring cash flow per share and I'm excited to return to enhancing our growth with opportunistic investments such as share purchases, tower acquisitions, land purchases and other activities that we believe are accretive to long-term recurring cash flow per share.

  • As Jay mentioned, the 2010 outlook for recurring cash flow per share is 16% on a comparable basis adjusted for the non-cash interest rate swaps. That's before any incremental investment or share purchases, which I would expect to add to that number as we go through the year.

  • Let me help quantify this potential for you as our investment capacity is significant. Based on 2010 outlook for recurring cash flow and additional cash -- and existing cash balances we have on hand today, we have approximately $1 billion to invest in 2010. There are a lot of positive dynamics in the wireless industry we has created the opportunity for us to post these strong operating results and makes us excited about our investment prospects.

  • The growth in the broader wireless and mobile Internet markets continues unabated. According to recent estimates, 3G penetration in North America was 29% in 2008 and is expected to grow to 38% and 46%, respectively, for 2009 and 2010 when those figures are finally in and global mobile subscribers now exceed Internet users by more than two times.

  • Furthermore, in recent weeks AT&T and Verizon wireless have altered their pricing strategies to drive further growth in wireless minutes of use, text messaging and most importantly, data plan adoption. Both carriers are now requiring subscribers with mid-range phones to purchase data plans, thereby capturing a greater share of the growing number of SmartPhone subscribers and increasing average revenue per user.

  • Wireless Data Services continue to be of increasing importance to the carriers as they represent a significant area of growth for the carriers, with SmartPhone users generating roughly twice the monthly revenue as other mobile phone customers. The increase in data usage is resulting in an increased investment in network equipment and cell site deployment. The recent changes to data plans are likely the first step to tiered data plans, which were expected as the carriers migrate to fourth generation networks.

  • During 2010, various new hand sets and other devices are expected to be introduced. These include the just announced Apple iPad, the recently launched Google phone, several Android and Palm devices, together with the continued launch of new applications and App stores.

  • In December, Verizon updated specifications for wireless devices that will run on it's LTE fourth generation network, which will ultimately connect a full range of electronics and machines and enable a new class of services, such as online gaming, media sharing and video entertainment. To that end, we are pleased to be seeing a significant amount of LTE applications, as Verizon builds it's fourth generation network.

  • Clearwire, the first company to launch 4G services, was very active in 2009 in continuing to develop their network and we expect the level of leasing activity to remain high this year following Clearwire securing additional capital to fund it's 2010 build target of 120 million covered pops through 2010 versus 40 million in 2009.

  • Another new entrant, Cox Communications, recently completed successful trials in Phoenix and San Diego for voice and high-definition video streaming over LTE. The first clear indication that Cox is moving towards deploying the next generation wireless technology and expects to formally launch it's own network in March.

  • In addition to Clearwire and Cox, Verizon plans to launch 25-30 commercial LTE markets in 2010, covering 100 million pops and AT&T Mobility will be conducting LTE trials with wider deployments expected in 2011. And indicated on this morning's call, most of you probably heard, that they will be increasing their capital spending for wireless network improvements by as much as 10% or $2 billion this year.

  • All of these deployments point to a long-term secular growth curve associated with data deployment that we anticipate will extend the growth profile of our business over the next several years. We would expect to see a steady application volume over the next number of several years, with a ramping of activity as we go through 2010. I believe we are best positioned in the tower industry to translate this expected revenue growth opportunity into recurring cash flow per share for the following reasons.

  • We have the best located sites in the industry with 71% of our portfolio in the top 100 BTAs, we are a significant share of the incremental leasing demand from 3G and fourth generation activity originates, we deliver for wireless carriers, having the highest level of customer service the the industry as ranked again by our customers. We have the fewest shares outstanding per site of any publicly traded tower company, depending on the company, anywhere from 25%- 50% fewer shares per site.

  • While this is relatively simple math, this means that as we add additional revenue we can expect that this revenue will be divided among fewer shares than our peers, which translates into higher recurring cash flow per share growth. Again, the most important determinant of value in our judgment.

  • Finally, we had a great 2009. As we described, we are excited about 2010 and our ability to return to historical approach of allocating capital to maximize recurring cash flow per share. We believe we are uniquely positioned to translate this growth in to value without raising risk profile. As we have appropriately refinanced our balance sheet with longer term debt that reflects the long-term contracts underlying this great business.

  • We remain US focused and have no developing country risk in the business. We have the best located assets in the industry, with significantly more towers in the top 100 markets than anyone else. And we have the highest customer satisfaction service scores in the industry as we continue to deliver for customers. I will look forward to continuing our track record of success and further enhancing our growth with opportunistic investments over time.

  • The year we just completed with the progress we have enjoyed does not happen by accident. We have a team of highly dedicated and talented employees and I am pleased to thank them publicly for their efforts over the last year. With that Operator, I would be pleased to turn the call over for questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from David Barden with Banc of America.

  • - Analyst

  • Hi guys. Good quarter. Thanks for taking the question. If I could, a couple. First, Jay, I'm sure the only other topic that you enjoy talking about more than the balance sheet has been the straight line accounting issue. I guess before it becomes an issue in 2010 as we look ahead to the guidance, could you map out for us what you think the delta year-over-year would be in the impact of straight line accounting and revenues and cost and whether you see any big contract renewals that we need to be thinking about now before people start asking questions about results at the back end?

  • And then second, on the guidance outlook itself, I guess to the point Ben that you made about the bells are taking up their expectations, we had big volumes of applications at the end of last year, we saw Clearwire get funded, there were questions among the investors overnight why the outlook hasn't changed more for the positive. If you could talk to that, that would be great, thanks.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • I will take the first question on the revenue side. We talked about this on the last quarter call and it may be helpful to go back through a bit of this this morning. If you look at the revenue growth on the base of business that we had on the books in 2008, that book of business grew 4% in the full-year 2009 over 2008. That would incorporate all of the escalations, cash and non-cash of all of the leases that were on the books and would be net of turn. In any given year, we would expect that number to sort of be 3%-4%, and so last year I guess it was towards the high end of that range, the 4% level. And about 6% of the growth was related to brand new tenants going on the towers. As we look at 2010 and we will sort of get into the year, but at this point we would expect sort of in the similar range in terms of escalations as what we have talked about historically. I don't see anything at this point that would be outsized. We made a couple comment, both Ben and I did, about just the timing of how we see the year and that's it back-end loaded.

  • - President & CEO

  • Dave, just in terms of the revenue outlook, it's $112 million year-over-year growth, $90 odd million of EBITDA, 9% at the EBITDA line and 16% at the cash flow line again on a comparable basis to last year plus the impact of additional investment which we were clear to highlight in our prepared remarks. So, you could expect that we will get some benefit of putting some cash to work in hopefully a productive way.

  • But, I would also say that we are in the fourth week of new year. So, frankly not a lot has changed since we gave you guidance sort of at the beginning of November last year and so it is early and the carriers are still in their planning stages, still finalizing budgets and while we are very encouraged by what we hear and in the public, and the dynamic we see long-term in the industry, which continues to unabated, we want to be very careful about how we forecast revenue going forward this early in the year.

  • I do believe it's back-end loaded. We are expecting to see some things develop over the course of the year and we expect to see a continuation of a number of positive trends we saw last year, like for example the Clearwire build, which we enjoyed significant benefit from as we executed around installation and leasing of a lot of sites for them last year .

  • So, I would say to you it's somewhat back-end loaded and it's also very early in the year and we want to just be very conservative here as we start the

  • - Analyst

  • All right, guys, thanks much.

  • Operator

  • Thank you and our next question comes from the line of Jason Armstrong with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot, guys. Maybe, first question just on AT&T comments this morning. They're pointing more towards amendment activity as a bigger surprise. It seems like cell site adds may map out 2009, but amendment activity, they were basicly talking about 2X the levels that they done in 2009 is what the guidance for 2010. So, just thinking through your outlook for 2010 and this type of trajectory, how did you think about amendment activity from the existing carriers as it relates to the guidance? And second question, just on the Service revenue side is much higher than we would have thought. Any color here as to why the big step up in revenues and this sort of a leading indicator? Thanks.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Jason, first of all in the Service revenue you give me a great opportunity to congratulate our team. Our take-rate, in terms of the addressable market, the opportunities to perform the service and installation on our sites, we have materially altered in a good way up this last year. We captured significantly more market share. That's the reason for that fourth quarter and the full-year results.

  • Now, as we always start the year, that can be volatile and very hard to predict so we always start the year taking a haircut to that former performance in the prior year. So, that's continuing in this guidance as we go forward for 2010. But, it is absolutely a function of take-rate, increasing through the addressable market on our sites.

  • To your other comment about the amendment, I would certainly say that we continue to see the amendment activity increasing and that is true. AT&T, I believe they mentioned and we saw that they did about 1900 new installations or colos or new builds last year in terms of new cell sites. I'm not sure they said what that will be in 2010, but we do see it with the legacy carriers as I would differ from brand new deployments. The legacy carriers increasingly, as you would expect, are improving their networks through more and more amendment activities on sites compared to maybe old historical times where they might have been building more new sites for coverage reasons.

  • So, more and more amendment activity, and as we have talked about before, that comes on at several hundred dollars a month, as opposed to maybe a couple hundred to thousand dollars a month. So, it takes more of those to add up to that same level of revenue. That would be consistent with what we are seeing in our pipeline.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you. If I could just go back to that first question. Just sort of layering this on. AT&T news, I think, is being perceived positively as it relates anybody attached to the wireless food chain today. Your comment on not much has changed in the last couple of months since we gave guidance. I would actually argue that this is a data point, but Clearwater $4 billion in funding is an even bigger data point and they were specifically called out last quarter as we do not have a full Clearwire build in our numbers and they are the biggest incremental tenant generally into 2010. So, I'm wondering why that isn't enough to tweak guidance here and what do you need to see over the course of the next quarter to be able to change the update?.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Well, implicitly in our 2010 guidance that we gave you towards the end of 2009, we had had a tremendous year with Clearwire and we were very clear, I think with everyone, about the work we had done. And we had a great year it was a significant contribution to our growth.

  • Certainly there is a fair amount of that implicit in the 2010 guidance going forward and their funding success, while we have haircut it somewhat because of not knowing exactly which markets they will embark on beyond their 2010 build, we have had to be a little bit cautious in terms of what do you see on the second half of 2010 that would lead into late 2010 and on into 2011 revenue for us.

  • Right now, we are focused with them on meeting their 2010 market launches, covering 120 million pops and that's sort of already in the pipeline.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • We'll see how that develops as we get -- sort of second half of this year, I think we will see their next phase of deployment and certainly we expect to participate meaningfully in that.

  • - Analyst

  • Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Thank you our next question comes from the line of Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Good morning. If I could turn to the use of free cash flow. Just to be clear, are you comfortable keeping the leverage you have now? Is that the target leverage you want to have over the next couple of years given the ability the refinancing you see completed? And in terms of use of cash, maybe you can comment on the M&A environment. Are you seeing values out there domestically or internationally and if you wanted to, could you start buybacks in the next several weeks or is that something more for sort of later on in the year? Thanks.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Good morning Simon, I will take the first question and Ben can take the second one. With regards to leverage, I don't think we have changed our view on leverage. Over time I think you will see us approach a leverage area somewhere in the neighborhood of about five times debt to EBITDA. But, maintaining about the level of nominal debt outstanding that we have currently. So, I think you will see us delever, but do that through growth and EBITDA rather than continuing to take cash flow or cash balances and pay down debt at this point.

  • The most recent debt purchases that we did approaching $500 million was really, I think an attractive use of the proceeds as a result of us being more successful than I frankly I think, we thought we were going to be in the most recent billion nine notes offering. Both in terms of the size and the rate we were able to achieve allowed us to take about $500 million of those proceeds and go out and buy back some of the more expensive coupon debt, but I don't think you will see us continue to deploy cash flow or cash balances to reduce the leverage. I think, over time you will see a deleveraging, but solely through growth in EBITDA.

  • - President & CEO

  • Yes, just to punctuate that, in Jay's comments he made a comment about leveraged neutral. That was absolutely the case. We didn't intend through the refinancing activity to put more leverage on Company.

  • So, through Jay's and team's efforts being successful there, we ended up with more proceeds, frankly at lower rates than we had expected or had positioned ourselves defensively to undertake, and when that happened we decided to rebalance and that's now largely done.

  • So, Simon that then sets up your next question, which is then as you think about use of cash and investment proceeds. So, the cash we have on the balance sheet plus the cash we expect to generate the rest of the year without accessing any additional credit is about $1billion. We expect to go back to doing exactly what we done for years, up to 2009. Which is to allocate capital in the way that we think grows and produces the highest long-term recurring cash flow per share growth. That will undoubtedly takes us to doing some M&A, as well as stock purchases.

  • Because as we shown you in the past, we do pretty rigorous analysis the best we know how to predict future leasing results on our own sites and on anything we would look at acquiring. And on any given day, that will lead is to different answers and so over time everyone has witnessed us purchase about 30% of the stock out of the market.

  • Based on that analysis that our sites were more valuable on those particular days relative to their future leasing prospects than what we saw in the open market that we could purchase. And then on days where we did M&A transactions, which we have done a number of, just the reverse was true. We saw a unique opportunity to consolidate a portfolio that we thought on a relative value basis created more growth potentially when added to our own portfolio.

  • We will go back to -- as boring as it sounds, we are going right back to what we were doing in 2006, 2007 and 2008. If you go back and read some of those scripts from that time, that's where we are headed.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. So, just to be clear. You could do buybacks this quarter if you wanted to?

  • - President & CEO

  • We talk about it routinely with our Board. Just to refresh everybody's memory. Our approach will be, as it has been in the past, we have a constant capital allocation dialogue with our Board and we get specific approval to move forward with specific amounts that we don't particularly announce because it's become our practice and we are very disclosive on this that we could be buying on any given day and we certainly report those after the fact.

  • But,the objective -- it's an M&A activity, whether we are buying external towers or buying our own sites through buying shares. It seems a little counterintuitive or counterproductive to us to go out and announce what the price target and the amount that we would be buying shares at when in fact, we are seeking to make an investment just like we would buying towers.

  • - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rick Prentiss with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning, guys. A couple of follow-up questions. Obviously a very strong effort over the last year on the balance sheet, long way off before any other issues. If you think about the November 11 anticipated refinance date, what are your thoughts about -- would you build up cash to pay that down, will you be opportunistic to take out some of the marketplace? That's like the next bullet out there, but it's a long ways off. Just trying to think of how you're thinking about it.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Okay. We have got two years, as you mentioned it's a long ways off -- we have about two years before that comes due and would not expect that we will hold back cash to pay for that. I think as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, one of the benefits that we got as a part of these most recent notes offering is the flexibility to split the pool of assets into multiple pools so that we could do smaller pieces of financings to refinance that.

  • So, I think we got a lot of flexibility. We could ultimately take some of the assets, pull them out, and go into a more traditional bank loan to finance the assets. We could do a secured bond, we could do a separate securitization or we could leave them in and just add additional notes as we did in this most recent offering to push out that maturity date.

  • So, I think there is a lot of options on the table and would expect that we will be able to refinance those notes rather than -- we're certainly not going to hold back cash and reserve cash to pay for that in light of the environment that we've seen over the last year. We've had access to the credit markets in pretty difficult times and most recently in better times and so I think we feel like we have a lot of options and have actually even increased those options since the last time we were dealing with the notes.

  • - President & CEO

  • -- the Make Whole --

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Yes. That's one other thing to mention we looked at -- the Make Whole on those notes was $155 million at the point at which we issued these most recent notes, so we could have upsized. The deal was oversubscribed. Had we upsized it and used the excess proceeds to pay off the notes, we were having to pay north of ten points up front just in terms of Make Whole payments and that in terms of a cost of capital just was too high. We didn't think that made a lot of sense.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. And then your RF engineering project. Can you update a little bit about what you think the anticipated, unsatisfied demand is on the towers?

  • - President & CEO

  • Rick, that hasn't changed appreciably and yet we are doing a significant refresh of that and for those that might be interested maybe we will invite you over to have a look at that at some point the future.

  • But, we are going over a detailed review that is overlaying individual frequency propagation, as well as topography by site. so we are getting a much more granular look at sites including even building clutter and things that maybe shading sites.

  • And the early returns -- we are through, I guess maybe had a dozen large markets, is that there is not an appreciable difference from something just over one tenant per tower, about one tenant per tower of indicated demand. Now, as we have talked about in the past and for those that may be new to the call what that suggests is that we can identify where a carrier could benefit relative to their average signal strength in the market, could benefit by occupying one of our sites. It doesn't necessarily mean they will.

  • It's just a measure of what is out there in terms of capacity that could be utilized to help them improve their RF signal strength in a particular location and it has been helpful in our marketing efforts and also just planning efforts and evaluation of our own footprint or portfolio of sites against maybe and M&A candidate because we do the same exact analysis on and M&A candidate. So, it's relative comparisons that we are most interested in.

  • I would say that it's as we have always said, it doesn't predict when that site will be taken down by the carrier and we are continuing to try to refine the predictability of that around traffic count, population density and a number of other factors that we are looking at. Later in the year, we will be done with probably 80% of our portfolio in this refined, much more granular approach and we will be happy to take anybody that's interested through it. It gets pretty technical pretty quick.

  • - Analyst

  • Final quick question. NOL, just kind of where you're at as far as NOL balance and when you think you might be using those up?

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Our NOL balance is about $2 billion currently and we would expect we will not be in a position based on the current growth and revenues and assuming we don't do and M&A transactions, I would assume that we will be through that somewhere in the neighborhood of the three to four-year time period. At which point we would start building NOL through that period of time, at which point we would start to consume the NOL. So, I think we are quite a ways off here, Rick, before we are in a position where we are paying cash taxes other than alternative minimum tax which should be relatively minor in the scope of cash flow.

  • - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you guys. Good to get back to operations.

  • - President & CEO

  • Yes it is. Absolutely.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brett Feldman with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking the question. You talked about how -- you talked extensively about how you're interested in getting back to reinvesting money and that menu of options included acquisitions. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about your appetite for international markets and if there are certain markets that more interesting to you than others?

  • - President & CEO

  • Brett, we have answered this before. We do have somebody on my team, actually on the executive team, who spends fair amount of time on this. We are constantly looking at international opportunities. The only thing I would say about that is right now we have not seen an opportunity that we are prepared to pursue at a price level that frankly I think would win relative to the alternatives that we seen in our own market here or in Australia.

  • That's not the say we discount the opportunity or don't underwrite and appreciate the wireless growth story in a number of other markets including emerging markets. It's just that on a relative value trade against what the opportunities are we see in our own markets we have just had a view thus far that we haven't seen anything that we thought measured up in terms of a risk-for-reward perspective that made us want to allocate capital in that direction. But, I would never say never and we have been involved and are aware of really every major transaction globally right now and we will certainly keep our head in the game there and paying close attention and if we see something that looks attractive relative to the alternatives, you should expect we will pursue it.

  • - Analyst

  • Have you actually set up shop in any foreign markets just as way of getting maybe a stronger foothold and being a bit closer to what is going on and to maybe catch some of these opportunities as they emerge?

  • - President & CEO

  • No we haven't. No we haven't. We have -- obviously this activity would be based out of the states or to a limited degree out of Sydney.

  • - Analyst

  • Part of the reason I'm asking, I'm wondering if think it might become increasingly necessary for you do that as we think about maybe where SG&A could trend over the next year or so?

  • - President & CEO

  • No doubt. You can get more educated on a market by being on the ground. I appreciate that. It's not a long list of potential tower buyers and I can assure you we get a phone call on pretty well any significant transaction that may be going on out there.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay and then on the domestic side. Now that you're back in the game in terms of being involved in potential acquisitions here, what are your initial thoughts on where valuations are? Do they look reasonable to you, do you find they have increased? I'm just wondering about the probability that you might actually be able to do a lot of deal flow this year.

  • - President & CEO

  • It looks a lot like it did. It's beginning to remerge through 2009. A lot of sellers did exactly what you would have expected them to do which was just sit tight while the market sorted itself out and balance sheets got prepared. Today, we see some opportunities out there and it's just like we have seen in prior years. Some expectations of value are unrealistic, which drives us right back to buying our own shares in the open market because it's the same trade. And in other cases, we see opportunities that we are pursuing and would have expectations that we will be able to do some things. Again, it's going to be I think very similar to what we seen in the past. And it's all about relative value and what's the best way to add value and grow cash flow for the Company.

  • - Analyst

  • And just to wrap it up here, I know you can't talk too specifically about what you are looking, but collectively or even individually do you see any potential acquisitions that if you completed them are so large that you actually might not repurchase any shares this year?

  • - President & CEO

  • Well, I can't speculate on what may come to the market, obviously. There may be some things coming on the market that we are not aware of. So, I don't really know how to answer that, Brett, other than to say we have got $1billion to invest before we would even contemplate borrowing any money. Which theoretically, if you buy something with cash flow even at our five to six times leverage range, obviously it's leveragable at a point. So, you could add some credit to that as well. It's just impossible to speculate what may be coming to the market.

  • - Analyst

  • Alright. Thank you for taking the questions.

  • - President & CEO

  • Sure.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Atkin with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Yes, just a clarification on the RF engineering tool. You said that is one tenant per site?

  • - President & CEO

  • Yes. That's just through a few markets. We've done about half a dozen large markets, so it's very hard to extrapolate that,John, tout the whole country. I wouldn't really read anything into that directionally from previously, I think we said 1.2 or 1.25, I wouldn't read anything directionally into that.

  • I think what's more helpful and if we ultimately take you through this is you will see the level of granularity here now that we are able to go through this with is many, many factors increased and to have that remain is attractive and yet again it doesn't predict the timing and the prioritization of the capital spend with the carriers.

  • And that's another piece that we are trying hard to develop some more predictive methods around which is looking at our historical results and then trying to sort of reverse engineer where you can develop some predictive modeling around when you are going to see the capital deployed at a particular site.

  • - Analyst

  • In the past, I think when you have communicated that 1.25 number, it was exclusively voice-driven. Now you are factoring in data as well?

  • - President & CEO

  • Partially. Not completely, we can't measure things that aren't deployed yet. So, for example 4G and things aren't out there. It's primarily voice and 3G services.

  • - Analyst

  • And then I was interested in the comments on Cox because they have obviously announced a wireless offer and that could be [NBNO-based] or it could be network-based. Are you seeing distinct signs that they are moving forward with a meaningful network build?

  • - President & CEO

  • Yes. I think we and all of our peers in the industry have been working with Cox and expect that we will see activity out of them as they continue to deploy their spectrum that they acquired and by -- from what we can tell it looks like a network build and a launch. But, that's certainly for them to decide and disclose publicly.

  • - Analyst

  • And then finally, on TCF margins. That has fluctuated a bit. I wondered if you could go into some of the factors there. I think it was down 50 basis points sequentially.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Yes. We had about $1 million in the fourth quarter in the US associated with some R&M activities that we were able to get done. Typically, we end up not being able to that much in the fourth quarter. We were able to get some of that done which created sort of $1 million dollars up there. The other thing I would mention in terms of the run-rate would be the Australian dollar increase. So, the operating expenses there moved up with that currency exchange ratio and we will see how that goes.

  • But, nothing has changed there. Basically for the full-year on a apples-to-apples basis, we held cost except for ground leases, almost entirely flat year-over-year. And then we saw ground lease expense go up it's typical 2% to 3% year-over-year. So, I don't think there is anything of any note there, if you go back up to a big picture perspective and look at it on a year-over-year basis.

  • - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of [Batya Levi] from UBS. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot. Just a follow-up on the margin question. Can you give a sense of how the land purchases can help margins going forward? How do you expect that ground lease expense going up to 3% track as you buy more land?

  • Maybe a follow up on the straight line question. If we look at the drivers of revenue growth, incremental revenue growth every quarter last year, it looks like straight line was some sort of a help every quarter. Can you give us a sense of how that changes in 2010 versus 2009? Thanks.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Sure. On the first question with regards to land lease purchases, obviously when we buy a ground lease that removes that expense out of the land lease line so it improves operating cost -- reduces operating costs and then we have a lower base upon which we are then escalating. I don't think it changes whatever the remaining base is. It probably continues to escalate as it has historically in the 3% to 4% range.

  • But, it's a goal of ours to incrementally and often increase the weighted average maturity of the land underneath our towers and we do that both through land lease extensions, as well as purchases.

  • One of the things that I would just commend our employees for and we have large group here that works on this, last year when we pulled back on CapEx in order to work on the balance sheet, we dramatically removed the CapEx and removed the amount of CapEx we were spending on purchases in a hurry and at the same time our employees were able to continue to maintain the level of lease extensions that we have been able to do historically.

  • So, I think that's an important activity and we are happy to extend the ground leases sometimes with landlords and other occasions where we think the price is attractive it makes sense to go ahead and buy the land and obviously that does have some incremental benefit to tower cash flow margins.

  • On your second question, there are always going to be leases that are extended, there is some 60,000 tenant licenses that we have in our US business. And so as they come up to the end of their five-year or ten-year term and we roll those out as we have mentioned in some of our prior calls, we have aimed to extend the terms to ten and fifteen years in many cases. And as we extend those leases out to their next term, there are going to be leases that get a benefit from where the bubble was previously into their near term.

  • And against that you have a big portion of the licenses that don't show any escalation in a given year because they are somewhere in the middle of their ten-year term or fifteen-year term, as it was. They may be two years in or three years in and you don't see any benefit from those licenses in the GAAP reported revenue.

  • So, the cash revenues are growing in the neighborhood of 3% to 4%. When you blend that across the whole portfolio, as I mentioned, when you look at the 2009 results you can see that -- you can see from where we sit that the benefit from escalations on the old book of business was 4%. And as I say, that's right in line with where cash escalations are generally from the 3% to 4%. Maybe a little bit of volatility year-to-year, but I think that should help you as you think about it longer term.

  • I know I have often adjusted to people to think about our business over a longer period of time rather than looking at the quarter-to-quarter changes. For many reasons. The timing at which we turn on licenses obviously affects what the sequential change in revenue is quarter-to-quarter. When you are trying to figure out what is escalations are going to be, it's a recurring revenue business and all of the revenue that we book are cash at a point and it's just predictive of that in some cases and sometimes trailing that number.

  • So, to look at the revenue base of business that we have today -- look at that over a long period of time -- a five or six-year period of time, it's going to grow 3% to 4%. There may be some ups or downs along the way, but I would take that book of business and assume it's going to grow to about 3% to 4%.

  • And then if you are trying to reconcile back to cash flow, obviously I think the best place to go is to the cash flow statement. I think you can see on the cash flow statement cash from operating activities was about $3 million or $4 million when adjusted for the sustaining capital expenditures. If you take out that out of cash from operating activities, RCF was about $4 million or $5 million below where cash from operating activities minus the sustaining capital expenditures are.

  • So, most of, whether you want to look at it on the income statement or look at it on the cash flow statement, I think the cash numbers that we showed in 2009 of about $540 million of cash flow is a pretty good number to work from.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you. Just maybe one follow-up question on the cell site number. It looks like you continued to decommission cell sites throughout 2009. What are some of the reasons for that and how do you think the tower account will change in 2010? Thanks.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • We have, over time, looked at opportunities to remove some cell sites where we were cash flow negative. Sometimes we end up moving those tenants onto other towers that are relatively close to them that we think are better assets. So, it's just a (inaudible) of the portfolio. We use some of the tools that Ben was mentioning earlier in his comments about our engineering tool. We have studied hard to make sure there is not future opportunities on the sites. So, those would be, the few towers decommissioned, would be sites where we don't see any future opportunities for leasing on the sites and we are just carrying a negative asset. I think we have gotten through most of that. So, I think the amount of sites that we seen over the last year or two years -- that probably is reduced on the go forward, but it's an activity that we constantly study and look at and try to be smart about profitability around the business.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Thank you our next question comes from the line of Mike McCormick with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Hi this is [Manishe] in for Mike McCormick. I just wanted to follow up on your comments regarding the application activity. You mentioned up 26% in 2009. I wanted to see if that has changed meaningfully so far in 2010 at all and then kind of timing on those applications actually turning into signed contract if you could give a sense on that?

  • And then you mentioned that the indication that you would be increasing your discretionary CapEx in 2010. I wanted to get a sense of what levels you were thinking. Is it more like 2008 levels or are we getting somewhere in between 2009 and 2008? Thanks.

  • - President & CEO

  • Sure, Manishe. On the application volume, look -- it does ebb and flow. It bounces around month-to-month. And so, all we have to look at is a partial month of January. So, I can tell you that it is compared to last January modestly higher. I wouldn't read anything in to that. Because it's a very small period of time to be evaluating where we are for this year. And it does move around materially from month-to-month. In fact, the fluctuation in application volume could be as much as 30% or 40% in any given month, depending upon what is going on in various markets with carriers.

  • The -- I think you asked a specific question about apps coming in the door until they ultimately commence, it's about five months on average.

  • I think lastly, the order of magnitude of the amount we would likely put to work in terms of investment --I don't know how to tell you exactly how much. Although, I will tell you that we expect to go back to a view that says look, we have got financing capacity, we have got a $400 million revolver that's undrawn and so we don't expect to leave a lot cash sitting around in the checking account inefficiently not earning any yield.

  • You should expect over the next few months or quarters that we will return to that approach. Which is to be pretty efficient in how we think about cash and we will -- as we have we will always maintain flexibility on the balance sheet through the revolver and credit capacity and at 5.7 times I think, Jay didn't say this, but it's by a lot the lowest leverage we have ever had in the Company. And as we also mentioned, don't expect to relever, I will probably let it roll off few quarters just through growth and so we will probably be down in the five times range before long with three times interest coverage and that's a very comfortable and I think a very efficient way to finance the business going forward.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Thank you and our next question comes from the line of Clay Moran with Benchmark Capital. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Good morning. A couple of questions. You talked earlier in the call about 2010 being back-end loaded. I remember -- I think I remember the third quarter you didn't really say that, I thought it was more the back-end you were less certain about maybe would be a little softer. So, are you referring in the back half to new lease activity being stronger or are you talking about reported revenue growth?

  • - President & CEO

  • Both actually. It would be activity we would expect and reported revenue growth. We saw more activity in the second half of last year than we saw in the first half. And I don't know whether that's a trend or not you would see year-to-year. I wouldn't suggest that, but this year I think we will continue to see -- we have expectations for increases. I will give you a potential and that's all it is. You could begin to see more LTE deployment going into 2011 and we would expect that to be very little revenue impact in 2010, but activity that would then benefit us in 2011.

  • So, you're splitting hairs a little bit, but I would say that we expect today to see more activity in the second half of 2010, than we expect to see in first half of 2010, but I'm not disappointed what we seen here four weeks into the year.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay and then new builds. Can you talk a little bit about where that ended up in 2009? Any plans you have, specifically for 2010, does the shot-clock ruling change anything? And then also, have you noticed any change in the return expectations in the industry for new build? The initial returns?

  • - President & CEO

  • We have done some builds, we will continue to do some, we are pretty selective. As we have talked about before, we are doing that with a partner whose putting up initial capital in that respect with an option to purchase the sites on our part in the future based upon specific hurdle rates, which are what I would say incentivizing us to maximize the performance of the sites and we share in that profitability. So, it's a very efficient way for us to effectively capitalize the build activity off balance sheet with no absolute obligation to acquire the sites, but only on an opportunistic basis and we market the sites and we build them.

  • We have seen activity there that we are pleased with in 2009. Going forward, we would expect about the same level. Probably in the 100-150 site range per year.

  • We are very selective about the sites we build. We turn down a number of sites where we think the colocation opportunities, if for no other reason, just the timing makes the return requirement very challenging that we impose on ourselves. And I would say it's probably always going to be a fairly insignificant contributor even if -- when and if we acquire these sites for our own account, it will be a fairly insignificant contribution because it's small, but at the same time I would say that we have seen return requirements in the broader market get fairly competitive again and we have seen some examples of where some folks are willing to commit capital on very low initial yields and we will watch carefully.

  • Obviously, we are going to do what we can where we believe we can create value and to the extent we can't then it just doesn't make sense to proceed.

  • Along the same lines though, I would add we are remaining committed to the [DAS] business. We have got a team of professionals that are working on that. We are pursuing a number of opportunities. We so see reasonable returns in that business. Again, it will be small. It won't be a significant impact, but at the margin as you think about allocating capital to the extent you could allocate some capital at incrementally high returns, well it's certainly something we want to do. And it provides a capability in a service that we offer to customers that we think goes very well with the broader tower business. So, we are actively pursuing opportunities the there and pleased with the systems we have on the air today.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

  • - President & CEO

  • I think we -- maybe take one or two more, okay.

  • Operator

  • Thank you our next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins with Citi Investment Research. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Good morning. Just -- at the risk of being repetitive, I want to follow up on the straight line question. Basically, I think one of things that you guys are known for through a lot of years is the depth of your disclosures as evidence by even the press release that you have out there overnight.

  • And I think the issue is when you look at the sequential revenue growth and you normalize for one-time items that you guys have put out there. Sequential revenue growth in 3Q was 4.5%, 4Q was 2.3%, 1Q at the midpoint of guidance, 70 basis points and full-year 2010 guidance at the midpoint, if I have this correct is about 7.5%.

  • As investors try to fully reconcile back to cash revenue as they have done historically for this business model, can you give us more disclosures either today or will those disclosures be available in the 10K? Because I think what the opportunity is is trying to think about all the qualitative things that were said on this call and across the wireless industry and thinking about how that specifically translates into cash revenue growth. Whether it's for 2010, thinking about the exit rates for 2010. So, that's basically the question. Can we get more of those details either today or in the future so that investors can better understand what the cash revenue trends are in the business? Thanks.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Mike thanks. I think we have tried to try to reconcile this number. I think we realized that we had a great 2009. Frankly, much better than what we expected when we went into the year.

  • The movement sequentially quarter-to-quarter though -- when you look at 2009, it was nothing new to the tower business. And you can go back and look at our results in 2007 and 2008 and there are periods where the revenue growth spiked $9 million or $10 million in any given quarter and then the next quarter, it might be $1 million or $2 million. And it comes down to -- you're looking at a business that's producing $1.6 billion of revenue a year and trying to figure out an incremental delta of $1 million. The timing of which is affected by numerous different things, everything from the time at which a new license turns on and the activity that our carrier see of turning up brand new markets.

  • We have spent a lot of time, I think over the course of the year talking about the launches and various markets throughout the year and some of the timings of those launches and when licenses went on affect the incremental steps quarter-to-quarter. As we look at 2010, it looks like -- you are correctly pointing out the sequential change is a little bit lower going into Q1 than what we saw some of the quarters in 2009 and we think that's largely just back-end loading of the timing.

  • I think in the back half of the year the sequential changes in quarters looks closer to what we saw in some of the sequential quarters in 2009.

  • I would say -- I think importantly, we always try to take this conversation from just talking about percentage revenue changes to what does it really mean to the business and we think the best measure of value in the business is that recurring cash flow per share. What has the business produced in terms of cash because ultimately that's the amount that both we can invest on and then longer term often times people think about the valuation in terms of what is dividend is going to be paid and what is that on a per share basis. So, we think that is the best measure of value.

  • And if looking at the income statement or adjusted EBITDA, gives anybody pause I would encourage you to go to the cash flow statement and look at cash from operations and that cash from operations number, as I mentioned earlier in the conversation is right on top of where we are reporting our recurring cash flow numbers. So whether we talk about this on cash from operating activities or talk about this in terms of recurring cash flow, I think you basically at the end of the day get to the same answer.

  • I think we are still fairly disclosive. I broke out organic growth and acquisition and then also giving segment reporting showing you exactly what is happening in the US business against what is happening in all of our international operations. You can see pretty clearly each of the markets that we are in, what percentage is coming from acquisitions and what is organic and what is coming from escalation activities.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Gray Powell with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my questions. I just have a couple. Pretty sure you hit on this. I just want to make sure that I have it correct. Does your guidance for 2010 assume that leasing activity from carriers is the same, better or lower than 2009 levels.

  • - President & CEO

  • It's about the same to a little bit higher, but again back end-loaded.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Now that you guys have significantly reduced leverage, how should I think about your ability to reinvest in the business and the potential to supplement growth and free cash flow per share? And specifically like you mentioned earlier, if you exclude impact of refinancing debt in 2009, the absolute dollar amount of recurring free cash flow growth in 2010 is 16%. I'm just trying to figure out how much doing things like buying back stock or buying towers could actually add to the per share growth rate longer term.

  • - President & CEO

  • Great question. The simplest way to do that without getting into cash on the balance sheet that you currently have that's one time or the incremental cost of borrowing and what's that incremental positive spread against what you're buying versus what you are borrowing. The simplest way to think about it, Gray, is to say okay - we will call it $600 million of recurring cash flow generation out of the business. Which is what Jay was just referring to which also does track back to the cash from operating activities, cash from operations. The simplest way to think about that is literally to say, okay just to be extreme and put the bookend on this, what if we bought -- spent all that buying shares -- what would that shrink the share count thereby obviously contribute to a total return or very similarly, if you were to pay out a dividend of all of that amount at the implied dividend yield that we are currently trading at. That's somewhere in the 5% to 6% range. So, either way you do that math.

  • So, you are very right to look at this, because it's how we look at it and say okay what's the unlevered -- using that term very loosely -- what's the growth from operations if you will, this is about -- if you look at guidance year-over-year it's about 16%. What would then be augmented on top of that through putting $500 million to $600 million to work in and around what we are currently trading or alternatively, making an acquisition in and around the same multiple. And it's 500 to 600 basis points on top of that which is how -- over a number of years and we stopped talking about it last year because of the incremental step in interest expense that we had to suck down one time, which is $90 million, which as we have talked about in the run-rate and behind us, but that's why my long-term goal is -- I would love to see us continue to be able to grow recurring cash flow per share in the range of 20% per year.

  • I think that's a target that we should be able to achieve if we are smart about it making investments and we execute at the operating level and it takes both. That's just kind of how we think about it and the way you get to the math you were just asking about.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. That makes a lot of sense. And this just following up on the topic. In terms of your investment discipline. On any investment that you make, whether it's buying stock, buying towers, buying back debt, just what is the target time period for accretion to free cash flow per share?

  • - SVP & CFO

  • Pretty quick, we don't have a lot of tolerance for dilution even in the short-term.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you for taking our questions.

  • - SVP & CFO

  • With that, I think we have run over our time. I want to thank everybody for hanging with us. We had a lot of good questions. I appreciate your interest in listening to the fourth quarter and full-year results. We will see you on the call next quarter. Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Crown Castle International Corporation fourth quarter 2009 conference call. If you would like to listen to a replay of today's conference, please dial 303-590-3030 or 1-800-406-7325. Followed by pass code of 420-0189. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect