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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Crown Castle quarter 4 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加 Crown Castle 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Kris Hinson, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
現在我將把會議交給公司財務副總裁兼財務主管克里斯·欣森。請繼續。
Kris Hinson - VP Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Kris Hinson - VP Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Thank you, Bailey, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our fourth quarter 2025 results. With me on the call this afternoon are Chris Hillabrant, Crown Castle's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sunit Patel, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call.
謝謝你,貝利,大家下午好。感謝各位今天蒞臨,與我們一同探討我們2025年第四季的業績。今天下午和我一起參加電話會議的有 Crown Castle 的總裁兼執行長 Chris Hillabrant,以及 Crown Castle 的財務長 Sunit Patel。為了方便討論,我們在公司網站 crowncastle.com 的投資者關係部分發布了補充資料,這些資料將在電話會議中多次提及。
This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, February 4, 2026, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.
本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受某些風險、不確定性和假設的影響,實際結果可能與預期結果有重大差異。有關可能影響我們業績的潛在因素的信息,請參閱新聞稿和公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的「風險因素」部分。我們的聲明截至今日(2026年2月4日)有效,我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。
In addition, today's call includes discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com.
此外,今天的電話會議也將討論一些非GAAP財務指標。有關這些非GAAP財務指標的調節表可在公司網站 crowncastle.com 的投資者關係部分的補充資訊包中找到。
I would like to remind everyone that having an agreement to sell our Fiber segment means that the Fiber segment results are required to be reported within Crown Castle's financial statements as discontinued operations. Consistent with last quarter, the company's full year 2026 outlook and fourth quarter results do not include contributions from what we previously reported under the Fiber segment, except as otherwise noted.
我想提醒大家,由於我們已達成出售光纖業務的協議,因此需要在 Crown Castle 的財務報表中將光纖業務的業績作為終止經營業務進行報告。與上季一致,本公司 2026 年全年展望及第四季業績不包括我們先前在光纖業務部門報告的貢獻,除非另有說明。
With that, let me turn the call over to Chris.
那麼,我把電話交給克里斯吧。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered the full year 2025 guide, exceeding the midpoint across all key metrics as we focused on operational execution across our portfolio. As we turn to 2026, we are in the middle of major changes across our business as we take several actions to position Crown Castle to maximize shareholder value.
謝謝你,克里斯,大家下午好。我們完成了 2025 年全年業績指南,在所有關鍵指標上都超過了中點,因為我們專注於整個投資組合的營運執行。展望 2026 年,我們正處於業務重大變革之中,我們將採取多項措施,使 Crown Castle 能夠最大限度地提升股東價值。
First, we remain on track to close the sale of our Small Cell and Fiber businesses, which we anticipate will occur in the first half of 2026. We are completing the operational separation of our three businesses and executing on our transition plans. Upon the close of our Small Cell and Fiber businesses, approximately 60% of our consolidated workforce will move with the sale as we transition to a simpler, US-only tower business. We have been notified that the Department of Justice has closed its Hart-Scott-Rodino review and is not requiring any action related to the transaction. We only have a handful of approvals remaining at the state and federal level.
首先,我們仍按計畫完成小型基地台和光纖業務的出售,預計將於 2026 年上半年完成。我們正在完成旗下三家企業的營運分離,並執行過渡計畫。隨著我們的小型基地台和光纖業務關閉,大約 60% 的合併員工將隨出售而轉移,我們將轉型為更簡單的、僅限美國的鐵塔業務。我們已獲悉,司法部已結束對哈特-斯科特-羅迪諾反壟斷法的審查,並且不要求對交易採取任何行動。我們目前只剩下州級和聯邦級的少數審批項目尚未完成。
Second, we continue to enforce our rights under the terms of our agreement with DISH. After DISH defaulted on its payment obligations back in January, Crown Castle exercised its right to terminate the agreement. As a result, we are seeking to recover in excess of $3.5 billion from DISH and remaining payments owed under the agreement.
其次,我們將繼續行使我們與 DISH 協議條款賦予我們的權利。今年1月,DISH未能履行其付款義務後,Crown Castle行使了終止協議的權利。因此,我們正在尋求從 DISH 追回超過 35 億美元的款項以及根據協議應支付的剩餘款項。
Crown Castle was supportive of AT&T and SpaceX obtaining the announced 3.45 gigahertz, 600 megahertz, [AWS-4, H Block], and unpaired [AWS-3] spectrum bands, which would put this valuable public resource into active use for the wireless industry and the American people. That said, we will continue to do everything possible to enforce our rights under our contract with DISH.
Crown Castle 支持 AT&T 和 SpaceX 獲得已宣布的 3.45 吉赫茲、600 兆赫茲、[AWS-4、H 頻段] 和未配對的 [AWS-3] 頻譜頻段,這將使這一寶貴的公共資源為無線行業和美國人民積極利用。即便如此,我們仍將繼續盡一切可能維護我們與 DISH 簽訂的合約項下的權利。
Third, we are taking decisive action to maximize value for our shareholders in response to DISH's actions by announcing a restructuring plan to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of our stand-alone US tower business following the anticipated close of our Small Cell and Fiber business sale. Due to DISH's contractual default, we have accelerated and expanded our restructuring plan to realign staffing levels consistent with the removal of all future DISH activity.
第三,為了應對 DISH 的行動,我們正在採取果斷措施,透過宣布一項重組計劃來最大限度地提高我們獨立美國鐵塔業務的效率和效益,以應對我們小型基地台和光纖業務出售的預期完成情況。由於 DISH 違反合同,我們加快並擴大了重組計劃,以調整人員配置水平,從而與取消 DISH 的所有未來業務活動保持一致。
In total, we are reducing our tower and corporate workforce and continuing operations by approximately 20%, ending at about 1,250 full-time employees. In combination with other cost reductions, we expect to deliver a $65 million reduction in annualized run rate operating costs. The majority of staffing reductions will take effect in the first quarter, while the nonlabor reductions will be phased in throughout the year following the anticipated close of the Small Cell and Fiber business sale.
我們將總共減少塔台和公司員工以及繼續營運的員工約 20%,最終將全職員工人數減少到約 1250 人。結合其他成本削減措施,我們預計每年可減少 6,500 萬美元的營運成本。大部分人員裁減將在第一季生效,而非勞動力裁減將在小型基地台和光纖業務出售預計完成後,於年內分階段實施。
Finally, I would like to reaffirm our capital allocation framework and to update our expected use of proceeds from the Small Cell and Fiber business sale. First, when we reset our dividend last year, we considered the composition and risk profile of our cash flows. And as a result, we expect to maintain our dividend per share at $4.25 on an annualized basis until reaching our targeted payout ratio of 75% to 80% of AFFO, excluding the impact of amortization of prepaid rent. Thereafter, we intend to grow the dividend in line with AFFO excluding the impact of amortization of prepaid rent.
最後,我想重申我們的資本配置框架,並更新我們對出售小型基地台和光纖業務所得款項的預期用途。首先,去年我們調整股利時,我們考慮了現金流的組成和風險狀況。因此,我們預計,在達到調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 的 75% 至 80% 的目標派息率之前,我們將維持每股 4.25 美元的年化股息。 (不包括預付租金攤提的影響。)此後,我們計劃依照調整後營運資金(AFFO)的成長幅度提高股息,但不包括預付租金攤提的影響。
Second, we plan to invest between $150 million to $250 million of annual net capital expenditures to add and modify our towers, to purchase land under our towers, and to invest in technology to enhance and automate our systems and processes.
其次,我們計劃每年投入 1.5 億美元至 2.5 億美元的淨資本支出,用於增加和改造我們的信號塔,購買信號塔下方的土地,以及投資技術以增強和自動化我們的系統和流程。
Third, we plan to utilize the cash flow we generate to repurchase shares while maintaining our investment-grade credit rating.
第三,我們計劃利用產生的現金流量回購股票,同時維持我們的投資等級信用評等。
Fourth and finally, we plan to remain at a target leverage range between 6 and 6.5 times, using the proceeds from the Small Cell and Fiber business sale. As a result, we plan to allocate approximately $1 billion to share repurchases and approximately $7 billion to repay debt.
第四,也是最後一點,我們計劃將槓桿率維持在 6 到 6.5 倍的目標範圍內,利用出售小型基地台和光纖業務所得的收益。因此,我們計劃撥出約 10 億美元用於股票回購,約 70 億美元用於償還債務。
As I look forward to a full year 2026 and beyond, I'm excited by Crown Castle's opportunity as the only large publicly traded tower operator with an exclusive focus on the US. The US tower model continues to benefit from attractive business characteristics, including long-term revenues from investment-grade customers, contracted escalators, and high incremental margins. I believe that these characteristics will be supported by continued mobile data demand growth and a significant volume of spectrum being made available to motivated mobile network operators.
展望 2026 年及以後,我為 Crown Castle 作為唯一專注於美國市場的大型上市鐵塔營運商所擁有的機會感到興奮。美國鐵塔模式繼續受益於其有吸引力的商業特性,包括來自投資級客戶的長期收入、已簽訂合約的升級計劃以及高增量利潤。我認為,這些特點將得到行動數據需求持續增長以及大量頻譜資源向積極進取的行動網路營運商開放的支援。
To maximize revenue growth and profitability, we are focusing on becoming the best operator of US towers with the following strategic priorities: one, we are empowering the Crown Castle team to make the best and timely business decisions by investing in our systems to improve the quality and accessibility of asset information and improving customer experience on cycle time and their interactions with us.
為了最大限度地提高收入成長和獲利能力,我們致力於成為美國最好的鐵塔營運商,其策略重點如下:第一,我們透過投資我們的系統來提高資產資訊的品質和可近性,並改善客戶在週期時間和與我們互動方面的體驗,從而賦能 Crown Castle 團隊做出最佳和及時的業務決策。
Two, we are strengthening our ability to meet the businesses needs by streamlining and automating processes to enhance operational effectiveness. And three, we will continue to drive efficiencies across the business. We believe that these strategic priorities, combined with our disciplined capital allocation framework, and investment-grade balance sheet will drive attractive risk-adjusted returns.
第二,我們正在透過簡化和自動化流程來增強滿足業務需求的能力,從而提高營運效率。第三,我們將繼續提高整個業務的效率。我們相信,這些策略重點,加上我們嚴謹的資本配置架構和投資等級資產負債表,將帶來具吸引力的風險調整後收益。
With that, I'll turn it over to Sunit to walk us through the details of the quarter and our full year 2026 outlook.
接下來,我將把麥克風交給 Sunit,讓他為我們詳細介紹本季的情況以及我們對 2026 年全年的展望。
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. Our full year 2025 results were highlighted by 4.9% organic growth, excluding the impact of Sprint churn as our customers continue to augment their 5G networks. Due to our outperformance and organic growth, we ended the year near the high end of the guidance range for 2025 site rental revenues. The outperformance in revenues, combined with higher-than-expected services contribution, ongoing efficiency initiatives, and lower interest expense allowed us to exceed the high end of the guidance range for 2025 adjusted EBITDA and AFFO.
謝謝克里斯,大家下午好。2025 年全年業績亮點在於 4.9% 的自然成長,這還不包括 Sprint 用戶流失的影響,因為我們的客戶正在不斷增強其 5G 網路。由於我們業績優異且實現了自然成長,我們最終的年終成績接近 2025 年場地租賃收入預期範圍的高端。營收的超預期表現,加上高於預期的服務貢獻、持續的效率提升舉措以及較低的利息支出,使我們得以超過 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 和 AFFO 指導範圍的上限。
Turning to our 2026 outlook. At the midpoint, we are projecting site rental revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO of $3.9 billion, $2.7 billion, and $1.9 billion, which are meaningfully impacted by the following three items: first, due to the termination of our contract with DISH Wireless announced in January, our 2026 full year guidance does not include any contributions from DISH resulting in $220 million of churn in full year 2026. Second, for the purposes of building our full year 2026 outlook, we have assumed the Small Cell and Fiber business sale transaction will close on June 30. Third, as Chris mentioned, we're reducing our run rate operating cost by $65 million on an annualized basis, resulting in a $55 million impact to full year 2026 and a $10 million incremental impact to 2027 due to timing.
接下來展望2026年。中期來看,我們預計站點租賃收入、調整後 EBITDA 和 AFFO 分別為 39 億美元、27 億美元和 19 億美元,這些數字受到以下三項因素的顯著影響:首先,由於我們在 1 月份宣布終止與 DISH Wireless 的合同,我們 2026 年全年業績不包括 DISH 的任何貢獻,導致 2026 年全年業績不包括 DISH 200 億美元。其次,為了建構我們 2026 年全年展望,我們假設小型基地台和光纖業務出售交易將於 6 月 30 日完成。第三,正如克里斯所提到的,我們將每年減少 6,500 萬美元的營運成本,這將對 2026 年全年產生 5,500 萬美元的影響,並由於時間安排的原因,對 2027 年產生 1,000 萬美元的額外影響。
Moving to page 5, our full year 2026 outlook includes organic growth at the midpoint of 3.3% or $130 million, excluding the impact of Sprint cancellations and DISH terminations in 2026. Full year 2026 organic growth is expected to be 3.5% at the midpoint if DISH revenues are excluded from prior year site rental billings. This compares to 3.8% for full year 2025 on a comparable basis, excluding DISH revenues from prior year.
翻到第 5 頁,我們對 2026 年全年的展望包括 3.3% 或 1.3 億美元的有機成長中位數,不包括 Sprint 取消訂單和 DISH 終止服務在 2026 年的影響。如果將 DISH 的收入從上一年的場地租賃帳單中剔除,則預計 2026 年全年有機成長率中位數為 3.5%。以可比較基準計算,2025 年全年成長率為 3.8%,不包括 DISH 上一年的收入。
We expect our 2026 organic growth guide of 3.5% growth to mark the low point. This expected growth is more than offset at site rental revenues due to the $20 million impact of Sprint cancellations, $220 million of DISH churn, and a $90 million decrease in noncash straight-line revenues and amortization of prepaid rent.
我們預計 2026 年的有機成長率為 3.5%,這將是成長的最低點。由於 Sprint 取消訂單造成的 2000 萬美元損失、DISH 用戶流失造成的 2.2 億美元損失,以及非現金直線法收入和預付租金攤銷造成的 9000 萬美元減少,站點租賃收入受到的衝擊被完全抵消。
Turning to slide 6. The expected $110 million decrease to site rental billings is more than offset by the following items, resulting in an anticipated $15 million increase in 2026 AFFO compared to 2025. A $25 million reduction in expenses as the staffing and other cost reductions drive $50 million of expense savings in full year 2026, partially offset by standard increases on the remaining cost base. A $5 million increase in service contribution as service activity levels similar to 2025 are complemented by $5 million of expense savings from the workforce reduction. A $120 million decrease in interest expense, primarily from the repayment of approximately $7 billion of about 4% interest rate debt following the anticipated close of the Small Cell and Fiber business sale, partially offset by refinancing. A $25 million decrease in other items driven primarily by a decrease in amortization of prepaid rent.
翻到第6張投影片。預計場地租賃收入將減少 1.1 億美元,但以下項目足以抵消這一損失,預計 2026 年調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 將比 2025 年增加 1500 萬美元。2026 年全年,人員配備和其他成本削減措施將節省 5,000 萬美元,從而減少 2,500 萬美元的開支,但剩餘成本基數的標準增長將部分抵消這些節省。服務貢獻增加 500 萬美元,服務活動水準與 2025 年類似,同時透過裁員節省 500 萬美元的費用。利息支出減少了 1.2 億美元,主要原因是預期完成小型基地台和光纖業務出售後,償還了約 70 億美元利率約為 4% 的債務,部分被再融資所抵消。其他項目減少了 2500 萬美元,主要原因是預付租金攤提減少。
Turning to page 7. We decreased our guidance for AFFO in the 12 months following close by $240 million to $2.1 billion at the midpoint. Our original guidance of $2.34 billion at the midpoint included a $280 million contribution from DISH in the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027, which we have removed. This is partially offset by a $40 million reduction in interest expense from increasing the assumed debt repayment following the anticipated close of the Small Cell and Fiber business sale by approximately $1 billion to approximately $7 billion.
翻到第7頁。我們將接下來 12 個月的調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 預期下調了 2.4 億美元,中位數為 21 億美元。我們最初給出的23.4億美元的中位數預期包括DISH在2026年下半年和2027年上半年貢獻的2.8億美元,但我們已經將其剔除。但這部分被以下因素抵消:由於預期小型基地台和光纖業務出售完成後,預計債務償還將增加約 10 億美元至約 70 億美元,從而減少了 4,000 萬美元的利息支出。
Turning to page 9, the revised guide for AFFO for the 12 months following the close of the Small Cell and Fiber business, which includes a half year of growth compared to full year 2026 is $180 million higher and consists of $120 million of interest expense savings related to the anticipated debt repayments made with the Small Cell and Fiber business sale proceeds, $50 million of growth in the underlying business and $10 million of cost savings related to the 2026 reduction in force.
翻到第 9 頁,小型基地台和光纖業務關閉後 12 個月的 AFFO 修訂指南(與 2026 年全年相比,包含半年的增長)增加了 1.8 億美元,其中包括與使用小型基站和光纖業務出售所得款項償還預期債務相關的 1.2 億美元利息支出、基礎業務增長 500 萬美元的成本
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with significant liquidity and flexibility, positioning us to efficiently maintain -- effectively maintain our investment-grade rating after the sale of the Small Cell and Fiber business based on the target capital structure and capital allocation framework that Chris mentioned earlier.
接下來看一下資產負債表。本季末,我們擁有充足的流動性和靈活性,這使我們能夠根據 Chris 先前提到的目標資本結構和資本配置框架,在出售小型基地台和光纖業務後有效地維持我們的投資級評級。
In conclusion, we're pleased with our full year 2025 results and believe we are well positioned to deliver our outlook for full year 2026 and our updated range for estimated AFFO for the 12 months following the Small Cell and Fiber business sale closing of $2.1 billion at the midpoint. Longer term, we are excited by the opportunity for Crown Castle, and we believe we are taking the necessary actions to become a best-in-class US tower operator. We believe our focus on operational execution, combined with our capital allocation framework and investment-grade balance sheet will deliver attractive long-term risk-adjusted returns for shareholders.
總之,我們對 2025 年全年業績感到滿意,並相信我們有能力實現 2026 年全年的展望,以及我們更新後的小型基地台和光纖業務出售完成後 12 個月的預計 AFFO 範圍(中位數為 21 億美元)。從長遠來看,我們對 Crown Castle 的發展機會感到興奮,我們相信我們正在採取必要的措施,成為美國一流的鐵塔營運商。我們相信,我們對營運執行的重視,加上我們的資本配置框架和投資等級資產負債表,將為股東帶來具有吸引力的長期風險調整後回報。
With that, operator, I'd like to open the line for questions.
接線員,接下來我將開放提問環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Rick Prentiss, Raymond James.
(操作說明)里克·普倫蒂斯,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
I want to focus my questions wrapped around, obviously, DISH, but then also the Fiber, Small Cell sale. A couple of quick ones. Maybe you can elaborate a little bit further on. Any update on the status of working with DISH? Why terminate the agreement and what you get out of terminating the agreement? And then I have a couple of other quick ones.
我的問題主要圍繞著 DISH 展開,但也包括光纖和小型基地台的銷售。幾個簡單的問題。或許您可以再詳細闡述。關於與 DISH 的合作進展,有什麼最新進展嗎?為什麼要終止協議?終止協議你能得到什麼好處?然後我還有幾個簡短的問題。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, I think simply spoken, why do we terminate, DISH stopped performing under the contract. Our contract was very clear with DISH, and we're enforcing it to best protect the value of the contract.
是的,我認為簡單來說,我們為什麼要終止合同,因為 DISH 停止履行了合約義務。我們與 DISH 簽訂的合約非常明確,我們正在執行該合同,以最大程度地保護合約的價值。
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
And so (inaudible) feel gets the best kind of protect the value. Obviously, we appreciate knowing what the number was, over $3.5 billion owed.
因此(聽不清楚)感覺能最好地保護價值。顯然,我們很想知道具體數字,超過 35 億美元的債務。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I mean at the end of the day, Rick, we had a contract with DISH. DISH has chosen not to honor it with DISH in default, we exercise the termination rights for the agreement and can accelerate the entire obligations now. And this termination was because this is the remedy that was called for when a party defaults. And so in the end, we're vigorously enforcing our rights and trying to protect our shareholders for the terms of the agreement.
是的。我的意思是,里克,說到底,我們和 DISH 簽了合約。DISH 選擇不履行協議,DISH 構成違約,我們行使終止協議的權利,並可立即加速履行所有義務。終止訴訟的原因是,當一方違約時,這是必要的補救措施。因此,最終,我們將積極維護我們的權利,並努力根據協議條款保護股東的利益。
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
Okay. And obviously, when we had taken the DISH stuff out of our model, guidance looks pretty close to what we had laid out there. I appreciate all those details. One piece I'm wondering on is, is there any change to the purchase price of $8.5 billion for the Fiber, Small Cell transaction? Because you're noting approximately $7 billion of debt pay down, which makes sense, given where you want to keep leverage, cut interest costs and then stock buyback of just $1 billion.
好的。顯然,當我們從模型中剔除 DISH 相關內容後,指導意見看起來與我們先前製定的非常接近。我非常感謝您提供的所有細節。我比較懷疑的是,光纖和小型基地台交易的85億美元收購價格是否有變動?因為你注意到大約有 70 億美元的債務償還,這很合理,因為你想保持槓桿率,降低利息成本,然後只回購 10 億美元的股票。
So there's any change to the Fiber, Small Cell proceeds and how you think about using what was originally $8.5 billion and might still be.
所以,光纖、小型基地台的收益有任何變化嗎?以及你如何考慮使用最初為 85 億美元且可能仍為 85 億美元的資金?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So Rick, there's no change to the purchase price. Obviously, you have normal transaction costs and closing adjustments, those sorts of things. But -- so we just kept it at approximately $7 billion and $1 billion pending the close of the transaction. So no other reason other than that, there's no change to the $8.5 billion purchase price that we announced.
是的。所以里克,購買價格沒有變動。當然,還有正常的交易成本和結算調整等費用。但是——所以我們暫時將金額維持在約 70 億美元,待交易完成後再增加 10 億美元。因此,除了這個原因之外,沒有其他原因,我們宣布的 85 億美元收購價格沒有任何變化。
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
And then as far as the timing of the buyback, obviously, this deal to close, Fiber, Small Cell has been going on a long time. You really couldn't say much until you got closer to the deal closing. We're into February. First half isn't that far away. It sounds like a handful of state and federal approvals are left.
至於回購的時間,顯然,光纖、小型基地台這筆交易的完成已經持續了很長時間。直到交易接近完成時,你真的不能說太多。現在已經是二月了。上半場很快就要到了。聽起來好像還剩下一些州和聯邦政府的批准工作。
How should we think about the execution then of a $1 billion buyback? How fast could or should that be put to work?
那麼,我們該如何考慮執行這項10億美元的股票回購計畫呢?這項技術應該或能夠多快投入使用?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I think at this point, not knowing exactly when the transaction will close, we are thinking about that, and we'll have more specifics to share about that as we get through closing. So not much detail at this point, but we're clearly committed to making that happen.
我認為目前由於還不清楚交易何時完成,我們正在考慮這個問題,等交易完成後,我們會分享更多細節。所以目前還沒有太多細節,但我們顯然致力於實現這一目標。
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
Ric Prentiss - Analyst
Last one for me, wrapping it all together, you mentioned a handful of things at state and federal level approvals left. Any lessons learned from like [Frontier Verizon] through California or other processes? Or where do you think the long pole in the tent might be as far as getting those final handful over the finish line?
最後,總結一下,你提到還有一些事項需要州和聯邦層級的批准。從加州或其他地區的類似案件(例如 Frontier Verizon 的案件)中吸取了哪些經驗教訓?或者,你認為在爭取最後幾位候選人衝過終點線的過程中,最關鍵的因素可能是什麼?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So I think our team, together with the teams that they and EQT have made pretty solid progress. As you point out, California is always sensitive one. I think we're adequately focused on all of those, but I'm pleased with the DOJ thing happening, but I think that, yes, we hope to get all of these worked through and still stick with the original time line we have of closing in the first half. But in terms of lessons learned, I don't think there any specific lessons learned, but we do keep up with what's going on with the other transactions.
是的。所以我認為我們的團隊,連同他們和 EQT 的團隊,已經取得了相當紮實的進展。正如你所指出的,加州一直是一個敏感地區。我認為我們已經充分關注了所有這些方面,我對司法部的事情進展感到高興,但我認為,是的,我們希望解決所有這些問題,並仍然堅持我們原定的上半年完成交易的時間表。但就經驗教訓而言,我認為沒有什麼具體的經驗教訓,但我們會密切注意其他交易的進展。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I would just say more broadly, Rick, is I've been here 4.5 months. And what I've seen is a steady pace of progress along that time period, nothing has jumped out as unexpected. And I think our team is working collectively are doing a great job of threading the needle and getting all the approvals in place.
更確切地說,里克,我在這裡已經待了 4.5 個月了。我看到的是,在這段時間裡,各項工作都穩定地前進,沒有出現任何意料之外的情況。我認為我們的團隊齊心協力,出色地完成了各項工作,並獲得了所有必要的批准。
Operator
Operator
Michael Rollins, Citi.
麥可‧羅林斯,花旗集團。
Michael Rollins - Analyst
Michael Rollins - Analyst
I'm just curious if you could provide more characterization of the leasing environment. And over the last few months, as carriers have been working their budgets, some have access to more spectrum that's readily deployable in their networks. Have you seen a shift or change in how they're approaching whether it's densification and colo, whether it's the amendment strategy and activity?
我只是好奇您能否更詳細地描述租賃環境。在過去的幾個月裡,隨著營運商調整預算,一些營運商獲得了更多可立即部署到其網路中的頻譜。您是否注意到他們在處理密度增加和集中化、改造策略和活動等方面的方式發生了轉變或變化?
And can you maybe give a little bit more characterization of -- you mentioned in the prepared comments that at 3.5%, you're expecting to be kind of low. Maybe a little bit more detail to what can drive that higher over the next few years?
您能否再詳細解釋一下——您在準備好的評論中提到,您預計 3.5% 的比例會比較低。或許可以更詳細地說明一下,未來幾年哪些因素會推動這個數字繼續攀升?
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'll start and maybe hand it over to Sunit. So thanks, Michael. I think if you think back on where we are at this point, there's a couple of headwinds, if you will, around -- it's a cyclical 5G coverage in the deployment cycle of, say, a 10-year, decade-long (inaudible) cycle, and there's been great progress made by the operators and getting initial coverage out. You have a couple of new CEOs in the MNOs in place, which are obviously coming on strong, finding their ways and talking about overall cost reductions and focus within their businesses as they revise their strategy.
我先開始,然後也許會把它交給蘇尼特。謝謝你,麥可。我認為,如果你回顧一下我們目前所處的位置,你會發現存在一些不利因素——5G 覆蓋的部署週期是一個週期性的,比如說一個長達十年的周期,運營商在實現初始覆蓋方面取得了巨大進展。行動網路營運商 (MNO) 中新上任的幾位 CEO 顯然都表現出色,他們正在摸索前進的方向,並在調整策略的同時,談論著降低整體成本和聚焦業務重點。
I think that's counterweighted by tailwinds, which were mentioned, which are all around the frequency bands that are becoming available, both in the last year as well as the plan for the FCC to auction off at least another 800 megahertz of spectrum beginning in 2027 and the nature of the spectrum, although we don't know the exact frequencies, we see them as higher band frequencies will naturally drive a higher densification of cell site deployment. And so we do expect that, that becomes a tailwind both for the industry and for Crown as those plans come to fruition. So these are kind of the market dynamics that are shaping the industry right now. And I don't know, Sunit, if you want to talk specifically about 2026.
我認為,正如前面提到的,各種利好因素抵消了這種不利影響。這些利多因素都集中在過去一年中不斷湧現的可用頻段,以及美國聯邦通信委員會計劃從 2027 年開始拍賣至少 800 兆赫茲頻譜。雖然我們不知道確切的頻率,但我們認為,更高的頻段頻率自然會推動基地台部署密度的增加。因此我們預計,隨著這些計劃的實現,這將對整個行業和皇冠集團帶來利好。所以,這些就是目前正在塑造該產業的市場動態。蘇尼特,我不知道你是否想具體談談 2026 年。
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I think -- what I would say is just further supporting what Chris said. I mean, we think the mobile data demand continues a pace at pretty healthy terms, healthy growth rates, as we talked about last quarter. all the three major MNOs acquired spectrum in the last year, the FCC is auctioning 800 megawatts of spectrum beginning next year. So -- and then when we look at our leasing activity from our current leasing activity gives us some visibility into future activity.
是的。我認為──我所說的只是進一步佐證克里斯的觀點。我的意思是,我們認為行動數據需求繼續保持相當健康的成長速度,正如我們上個季度所討論的。三大行動網路營運商去年都獲得了頻譜,而美國聯邦通訊委員會(FCC)將於明年開始拍賣800兆瓦的頻譜。所以——然後,當我們查看我們目前的租賃活動時,我們可以從中獲得對未來活動的一些資訊。
So when you put all that together, yes, we think that the 3.5% is a low point for us, and we should do better from there. And then the other point to mention also is if you were to look at our other billings, both in terms of the guide this year and last year, it's about a $10 million swing. If you adjust for that, I think that the the growth levels are about the same last year this year. So as we look forward, we think this should mark a low point, and we should do better.
所以綜合所有因素來看,是的,我們認為 3.5% 是我們的低谷,我們應該從那時起做得更好。還有一點要提的是,如果你看一下我們其他的帳單,無論是今年的指導價還是去年的指導價,都會發現大約有 1000 萬美元的波動。如果考慮到這一點,我認為今年的成長水準與去年大致相同。展望未來,我們認為這應該是個低谷,我們應該做得更好。
Operator
Operator
Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.
吉姆‧施耐德,高盛集團。
Joshua Frantz - Analyst
Joshua Frantz - Analyst
This is Josh on for Jim. Can you help us bridge the 26th leasing outlook versus what you reported in '25? We know DISH was zero revenue a few years ago and has stepped up, but what's the best way to think about how much they've been contributing on an annual basis so we can see what's happening kind of underlying with the carriers?
這裡是喬許替吉姆報道。您能否協助我們分析 2026 年的租賃市場前景與您在 2025 年報告的前景之間的差異?我們知道 DISH 幾年前的收入為零,現在已經取得了長足的進步,但是要了解他們每年的貢獻,以便我們能夠了解運營商的潛在運營情況,最好的方法是什麼呢?
And then similar to that, if we look at 2019 and 2020, before 5G deployments and before DISH and before Sprint, T-Mobile integration work, your activity -- your new leasing was about $100 million to $125 million. Can you help us think about what's changed or the moving parts to get from then to now?
類似地,如果我們回顧 2019 年和 2020 年,在 5G 部署之前、DISH 和 Sprint、T-Mobile 整合工作之前,你們的業務——你們的新租賃業務大約在 1 億美元到 1.25 億美元之間。您能否幫助我們思考一下,從那時到現在,發生了哪些變化,或者說,有哪些因素在推動我們前進?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Let me end on the DISH contribution. So I mean, you can see last year, organic growth was 4.9% on a comparable growth, excluding DISH in both periods it's 3.8%. When you look at that difference, I think what it says is that DISH contributed about $50 million roughly to organic growth in 2025. And as we said previously, this was all contractual, not really activity driven, including what was expected for this year.
是的。最後,我想談談 DISH 的貢獻。所以我的意思是,你可以看到去年有機成長率為 4.9%,而同期成長率(不包括 DISH)為 3.8%。從這個差異來看,我認為這說明 DISH 在 2025 年為有機成長貢獻了約 5,000 萬美元。正如我們之前所說,這一切都是合約規定的,並非真正由業務活動驅動,包括今年的預期目標。
And then on your other comment, I mean when you look back at the 5G cycle, I mean, I think that T-Mobile upon -- while they were concluding the Sprint-T-Mobile merger, which was closed in April 2020, there was a pretty aggressive deployment of 5G. So when you look beyond that late in the cycle, we always see people with a densification, amendments that activity continues. So I don't have the exact numbers to back then, but I think it's comparable to what we were seeing back then.
至於你的另一條評論,我的意思是,回顧 5G 發展歷程,我認為 T-Mobile 在完成與 Sprint 的合併時(該合併於 2020 年 4 月完成),積極部署了 5G。所以,當你把目光投向週期的後期時,我們總是看到人們進行人口密度增加和修正,這種活動仍在繼續。所以我沒有當時的確切數字,但我認為它與我們當時看到的情況類似。
Operator
Operator
Michael Funk, Bank of America.
麥可‧芬克,美國銀行。
Michael Funk - Analyst
Michael Funk - Analyst
Yes. So you have a multipronged approach with DISH. Obviously, you've (inaudible) under your rights for the termination, presumably lobbying the FCC and then also through the court. So can you update us on the process and the expected timing around the different approaches that you're pursuing?
是的。所以你們與 DISH 採取的是多管齊下的策略。顯然,你(聽不清楚)有權終止合同,大概是透過遊說聯邦通訊委員會,然後透過法院。那麼,您能否向我們介紹一下您正在採取的不同方法的進展情況以及預計的時間表?
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I mean, I don't think we want to go into the specifics about our legal strategy and the timing of that. I think if we kind of take a step back and say, you recap -- we've taken steps, we filed suit against DISH. We have, as an industry under the auspices of [WIA] gone in to meet with the FCC commissioner to kind of make our case and why we believe that DISH should be obligated to pay for its bills. And we continue to take a number of steps, which I won't list here in details, but include all matter of activities, as Crown specifically, to be aggressive in defending our shareholder interest.
我的意思是,我認為我們不想深入探討我們的法律策略及其時間安排的具體細節。我認為,如果我們退後一步,回顧一下——我們已經採取了措施,我們對 DISH 提起了訴訟。作為[WIA]旗下的行業代表,我們已經與FCC專員會面,陳述我們的理由,以及我們為什麼認為DISH有義務支付其賬單。我們將繼續採取一系列措施,我不會在這裡詳細列舉,但包括所有活動,特別是作為皇冠集團,積極捍衛我們股東的利益。
This, unfortunately, with the courts working its way through, this could be anywhere from a year or longer until we start to see things back from the courts. And therefore, it won't be something that we'll be updating you in the short term. but we will continue to drive and defend our position against the actions that DISH has taken.
不幸的是,由於法院正在處理此事,我們可能需要一年或更長時間才能看到法院的判決結果。因此,短期內我們不會就此事向您發布最新消息。但我們將繼續推進並捍衛我們的立場,反對DISH採取的行動。
Operator
Operator
Eric Luebchow, Wells Fargo.
艾瑞克‧盧布喬,富國銀行。
Eric Luebchow - Analyst
Eric Luebchow - Analyst
Great. I just wanted to follow up on one of the questions earlier. I think, Sunit, you talked about how we're -- can growth this year, you expect it to improve somewhat in '27 and beyond? And maybe you could just talk through what gives you confidence there, whether that's anything you're seeing from a densification standpoint on new billings, whether there's ways to drive steady-state churn down particularly now that you'll just have three well-capitalized large carriers comprising the majority of revenue? Anything you could offer there would be helpful.
偉大的。我只是想就之前的一個問題做個後續說明。蘇尼特,我想你之前談到過我們今年的成長情況,你預計2027年及以後會有所改善嗎?或許您可以談談是什麼讓您充滿信心,例如您是否從新帳單的密度方面看到了什麼,或者是否有辦法降低穩定狀態下的客戶流失率,尤其是在現在只有三家資金雄厚的大型運營商佔據大部分收入的情況下?如果您能提供任何幫助,都將不勝感激。
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Well, with respect to churn, I don't think we see much change in the churn outlook we've provided previously. But I think in terms of specifics, as we said earlier, we did have the -- we do have some visibility into leasing activity. So that's helpful as we look at next year.
至於客戶流失率,我認為我們之前給的客戶流失率預測不會有太大變化。但就具體情況而言,正如我們之前所說,我們確實對租賃活動有一定的了解。所以這對我們展望明年很有幫助。
But I think if you look at comments made by our clients so far, I mean, they bought more spectrum, they've got to deploy most -- they want to deploy more spectrum, the data demand growth cycles continue. So we think we'll do better than where we are here. If you look at performance last couple of years, it's been a little better on the margin. So that's why we think this is a low point for us.
但我認為,如果你看看我們客戶迄今為止的評論,我的意思是,他們購買了更多頻譜,他們必須部署大部分頻譜——他們想要部署更多頻譜,數據需求成長週期仍在繼續。所以我們相信我們會做得比現在更好。如果從過去幾年的表現來看,情況略有改善。所以,這就是為什麼我們認為這是我們的低谷。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And specifically, I think we have a good view into our contracted leasing activity from our MLAs, gives us pretty good visibility into the future activity levels, which is why we're able to say that.
具體來說,我認為我們透過與MLA簽訂的租賃合同,對已簽訂的租賃活動有了很好的了解,這讓我們對未來的活動水平有了相當清晰的認識,所以我們才能這麼說。
Eric Luebchow - Analyst
Eric Luebchow - Analyst
Great. Appreciate that. And then just one follow-up. I know you talked about reducing, I believe, 20% of your operating expenses. Maybe you could just talk about the flow-through between SG&A and gross margin?
偉大的。謝謝。然後只有一次後續跟進。我知道您曾談到要削減,我相信是20%的營運費用。或許您可以談談銷售、管理及行政費用與毛利率之間的相互影響?
Kind of where we're going to see the biggest impact there? And any kind of indication on where you can get cash SG&A down to the next couple of years as you go through this cost restructuring?
我們大概會在那裡看到最大的影響吧?在進行成本重組的過程中,能否提供一些跡象表明,未來幾年內,您能否降低銷售、管理及行政費用(SG&A)?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So I mean, we talked about $65 million of run rate operating cost savings. So in year, we'll see $55 million, most of that is through the SG&A line. So of that $55 million, $45 million roughly will hit the SG&A line. And then $5 million will come inside rental cost of sales and about $5 million on the services side.
是的。我的意思是,我們討論的是每年可節省 6500 萬美元的營運成本。所以今年我們將看到 5,500 萬美元,其中大部分是銷售、一般及行政費用。因此,在這 5,500 萬美元中,約有 4,500 萬美元將計入銷售、管理及行政費用。其中 500 萬美元將計入銷售的租賃成本,約 500 萬美元將計入服務成本。
And then from a run rate perspective for those same items, which adds to $65 million. It's about $50 million from the SG&A side, $5 million from the site rental cost of sales, and $10 million from the services cost of sales. That's why I said it would be the $65 million, we'll see $55 million in year and an incremental $10 million next year. So those are the components.
從這些項目的運作率來看,總計為 6500 萬美元。其中銷售、管理及行政費用約 5,000 萬美元,場地租賃費用約 500 萬美元,服務費用約 1,000 萬美元。所以我才說會是 6,500 萬美元,今年會到 5,500 萬美元,明年還會增加 1,000 萬美元。以上就是各個組成部分。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I mean I think the reality is we've started to size up the opportunity longer term. But I want to remind everybody, this is a year of transition for our company. We're executing the sale agreement. We're managing through DISH. We're putting a reorganization of the go-forward team in place.
我的意思是,我認為現實情況是我們已經開始從長遠角度評估這個機會了。但我想要提醒大家,今年是我們公司轉型的一年。我們正在執行銷售協議。我們是透過 DISH 收發郵件。我們正在對未來發展團隊進行重組。
And so while we're focused on working to become the best-in-class operator and updating systems and improving operational effectiveness by streamlining and automation processes and tools, it's going to take a while.
因此,雖然我們專注於努力成為一流的營運商,並透過簡化和自動化流程及工具來更新系統並提高營運效率,但這需要一段時間。
So we accelerated our activity now as a response to the current situation with DISH, and we have good ideas of where we're going to go. But I think we'll have to guide in the future as we make progress as we really need to focus in on execution, given all that's coming at us this year. This is really a plan of of execution for Crown as we become a stand-alone US-focused tower company.
因此,為了應對 DISH 目前的狀況,我們加快了行動,並且對未來的發展方向有了清晰的思路。但我認為,隨著我們取得進展,未來我們需要在執行方面給予指導,因為鑑於今年我們面臨的所有挑戰,我們真的需要專注於執行。這實際上是 Crown 成為一家專注於美國的獨立鐵塔公司的執行計劃。
Operator
Operator
Richard Choe, JPMorgan.
Richard Choe,摩根大通。
Richard Choe - Analyst
Richard Choe - Analyst
I want to follow up on the discretionary CapEx and augmentation. The $150 million to $250 million. As you deploy that, how will that contribute to, I guess, new leasing revenue? Do you expect to see some of that this year? Or is it more for future years? And where could that go over time?
我想跟進一下可自由支配的資本支出和擴容事宜。1.5億美元至2.5億美元。部署該方案後,它將如何促進新的租賃收入?你預計今年會看到一些這樣的情況嗎?或者說,這更多是為未來幾年準備的?隨著時間的推移,這又會如何發展呢?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So I think some of that, we had the opportunity to do ground lease buyouts, which I think benefits our cash flows going forward. Some of it is for new tower builds, we see opportunities for that. So those -- and then the third component would be investments in systems and platforms, which should drive better operating effectiveness and efficiency going forward.
是的。所以我認為,我們有機會進行土地租賃收購,我認為這有利於我們未來的現金流。一部分資金將用於新建塔樓,我們看到了這方面的機會。因此,第三部分是對系統和平台的投資,這將推動未來營運效率和效益的提高。
Richard Choe - Analyst
Richard Choe - Analyst
And as we look forward, what's the willingness for Crown to do more MLAs? And is it something the carriers still want? Or are we moving more to a pay-as-you-go type of method over the next few years?
展望未來,Crown公司是否有意願開展更多MLA專案?運營商仍然希望如此嗎?或者,在未來幾年裡,我們會更多地轉向按需付費的方式嗎?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I mean I don't think we've seen any change there. We've generally operated with MLAs with our clients. We obviously go through various phases here and there, but that's been a general approach.
我的意思是,我覺得那方面沒有任何改變。我們通常與客戶簽訂立法會協議 (MLA)。我們當然會經歷各種階段,但這始終是一種整體方法。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
In general, I would say that operators prefer having the certainty of understanding an operating agreement and being able to anticipate cost. And therefore, it's something that I think the industry as a whole prefers along with the customers.
總的來說,我認為營運商更喜歡能夠確定地了解營運協議並能夠預測成本。因此,我認為這是整個產業以及消費者都更傾向的選擇。
Operator
Operator
Nick Del Deo, MoffettNathanson.
尼克·德爾·迪奧,莫菲特·內森森。
Nicholas Del Deo - Analyst
Nicholas Del Deo - Analyst
First, Sunit, just a moment ago, you alluded to new tower builds as the use of CapEx and seeing opportunities -- the Crown has done a lot from a new-build perspective, at least (inaudible) way for a number of years. Are you able to dimension the number of new builds you're targeting or at least how it's changed versus recent years? Is there any attributes to the towers you're looking at like initial yields?
首先,蘇尼特,就在剛才,你提到建造新塔樓是資本支出和尋找機會的一種方式——從新建的角度來看,皇冠已經做了很多事情,至少(聽不清楚)多年來是這樣。您能否具體說明您計劃新建專案的數量,或至少說明與近年來相比發生了哪些變化?您正在考察的這些塔樓有哪些特性,例如初始收益率?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Tough to quantify it at this point. I mean, our key criteria is have the capital, willing to do it if it makes economic sense. We do know that as data demands are growing, people and needs in various areas. One key example of this, I think, just in general, is you've seen recently, Verizon closed the Frontier deal, AT&T closed the [Lumen] deal is a big move towards conversion.
是的。目前很難量化。我的意思是,我們的關鍵標準是擁有資金,並且願意在經濟上合理的情況下去做。我們知道,隨著數據需求的成長,各個領域的人們和需求也不斷在改變。我認為,就總體而言,一個關鍵的例子就是你最近看到的,Verizon 完成了對 Frontier 的收購,AT&T 完成了對 [Lumen] 的收購,這是向轉型邁出的一大步。
So when you think about the geographies of where Frontier operates so where the [Lumen] properties are, we think there will be opportunities as they look to provide a converged offering, which means they'll need both wireless coverage, including fiber to the home. So that's just one example of an area where there might be opportunities in the others.
因此,考慮到 Frontier 的營運區域以及 [Lumen] 的資產所在地,我們認為隨著他們尋求提供整合服務,將會存在一些機會,這意味著他們需要無線覆蓋,包括光纖到府。這只是一個例子,說明在其他領域也可能存在機會。
So tough to quantify for you at this point in time, Nick, but I think it's just saying we're willing to look at that when it makes economic sense.
尼克,目前很難量化這個問題,但我認為這只是意味著,當它在經濟上有意義時,我們願意考慮這個問題。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, maybe to build on that. One is, we've said we're going to be very selective and really only pursue opportunities that have those attractive economics that Sunit mentioned, but more importantly, if you look at the dynamics of the industry, one of the things that's happened since COVID is the price to build a new tower has gone up considerably. And so it has a headwind for the industry in terms of build overall in terms of the business case that you have to have.
是的,或許可以以此為基礎。一方面,我們說過我們會非常謹慎地選擇,只追求像 Sunit 提到的那些具有吸引力的經濟效益的機會;但更重要的是,如果你觀察一下行業的動態,就會發現自新冠疫情以來發生的一件事是,建造一座新塔的成本已經大幅上漲。因此,就整體建設而言,就你必須具備的商業理由而言,這對整個產業來說都是一個不利因素。
And oftentimes, if in the past, you would build a single carrier tower and hope to get additional colocators, that's become increasingly difficult. And so for us, although our volume is not high, is typically we will focus in on those towers where we have a minimum of two customers committed so that we know that the economics make sense and the return profiles are correct.
而且,過去你可能會建造一座單獨的運營商塔,然後希望獲得更多託管機房,但現在這種情況變得越來越困難。因此,雖然我們的業務量不高,但我們通常會專注於至少有兩個客戶簽約的基地台,這樣我們才能確保經濟效益合理,收益情況也正確。
And it's something that -- if you look back historically over the last 10 years, and I know because I've worked both in the disruptive part of the tower industry and now here as the leader of the big three is that traditionally, MNOs haven't always looked for the big three tower companies to provide those new tower builds. But that's starting to change. And the conversations we're having with customers are that they would like a one-stop shop based on ease of doing business with and strategic partnerships with tower companies like Crown.
回顧過去 10 年的歷史,我知道這一點,因為我既在顛覆性的鐵塔行業工作過,現在又擔任三大鐵塔公司的領導者,那就是傳統上,移動網絡運營商並不總是尋求三大鐵塔公司來提供新建鐵塔的服務。但這種情況正在開始改變。我們與客戶的交流表明,他們希望獲得一站式服務,以便於與 Crown 等鐵塔公司開展業務並建立策略合作夥伴關係。
And so we think there's an opportunity there. We're sizing that up. We're exploring it, but we will be incredibly disciplined in the go forward because that CapEx spend has to be with the right return before we move forward in any kind of scale in this part of the industry.
所以我們認為那裡存在著機會。我們正在評估情況。我們正在探索,但今後我們將非常謹慎,因為在產業這一領域大規模發展之前,資本支出必須獲得正確的回報。
Nicholas Del Deo - Analyst
Nicholas Del Deo - Analyst
Okay. Okay. That's great color. Can I ask one about the '26 leasing forecast. I guess can you share anything about the degree to which the amount you're budgeting for is locked in, whether due to MLA commitments or because you have leases that are already signed versus activity that you've estimated?
好的。好的。顏色真好看。請問能否詢問一下2026年的租賃預測狀況?我想請您分享一下,您預算中的金額在多大程度上是確定的,例如是否由於MLA協議或已簽署的租賃合約而確定,以及與您預估的活動相比,實際金額是多少?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I think at this point, about 80% of our organic growth is contracted.
是的。我認為目前我們大約 80% 的有機成長已經萎縮。
Operator
Operator
Brandon Nispel, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Brandon Nispel,KeyBanc Capital Markets。
Brandon Nispel - Analyst
Brandon Nispel - Analyst
Two questions pretty similar on the leasing correlating number, the $65 million, is that weighted more first half, second half this year? And really, is it concentrated in any one of the big three customers are more evenly split?
關於租賃相關數字 6,500 萬美元,有兩個非常相似的問題:這個數字是今年上半年佔比更高,還是下半年佔比更高?實際上,這種集中現像是集中在三大客戶中的任何一個人身上,還是分佈得更均勻一些?
And then I'm not sure I heard it post the Fiber transaction. Have your thoughts around what you want your financial leverage to be change just given the leasing levels are quite a bit lower than when you initially announced the transaction.
然後,我不確定我是否在光纖交易之後聽到了它。鑑於目前的租賃水準比你最初宣布交易時低了不少,你對財務槓桿的預期也需要相應調整。
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I mean, as we said, our framework hasn't changed in terms of our capital allocation. So we still look to keep our leverage in that 6 to 6.5 range that we've announced last March, I think. So no change there per se. And in terms of leasing activity, I think it will be a little more weighted towards the back half.
是的。我的意思是,正如我們所說,我們的資本配置框架並沒有改變。所以,我們仍然希望將槓桿率維持在去年三月宣布的 6 到 6.5 的範圍內。所以這方面本身並沒有什麼改變。至於租賃活動方面,我認為下半年會更活躍一些。
Operator
Operator
Brendon Lynch, Barclays.
布倫登·林奇,巴克萊銀行。
Brendan Lynch - Analyst
Brendan Lynch - Analyst
Maybe just to start on the longer-term outlook. I appreciate that the 3.5% is kind of a trough here in 2026. But you've previously guided to 5% growth through 2027, obviously, with DISH that doesn't seem achievable at this point. But maybe you could give some color on what the longer-term growth rate might be either out through 2027 or if you could give even further comment here that would be helpful.
或許可以先從長遠角度來看這個問題。我意識到 3.5% 這個數字在 2026 年算是低潮了。但您之前曾預測到 2027 年將實現 5% 的成長,顯然,對於 DISH 而言,目前看來這似乎無法實現。但或許您可以對 2027 年之前的長期成長率做一些說明,或者如果您能在此提供更多評論,那就太好了。
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I mean I don't think, at least from my recollection, in the last few years, we've provided any outlook beyond the the current year. So I think no specifics to provide the other than I would just mention that the combination, the backdrop was sort of constant demand growth on mobile data traffic continue to grow, combined with our clients buying more spectrum and having plans to more -- deploy more spectrum and more spectrum being available. We feel pretty good about the long-term outlook, but I don't think we've provided the outlook beyond the current year, at least for the last few years --
是的。我的意思是,至少就我記憶所及,在過去幾年裡,我們沒有提供任何超越當年的展望。所以我覺得沒什麼具體細節可以提供,我只想提一下,背景是行動數據流量需求持續增長,加上我們的客戶購買了更多頻譜,併計劃部署更多頻譜,以及更多頻譜可用。我們對長期前景相當樂觀,但我認為我們至少在過去幾年裡都沒有提供今年之後的展望。--
Brendan Lynch - Analyst
Brendan Lynch - Analyst
Okay. And maybe just on software upgrades. Obviously, that has been a consideration more recently. Your customers are clamoring for more spectrum, nobody denies that, but maybe the potential for them to deploy more of it via software upgrade instead of new leasing might be a headwind, all else equal. Can you just give some commentary on how you think that's going to affect the industry going forward?
好的。或許只是軟體升級方面的問題。顯然,這在最近一直是人們考慮的因素。您的客戶渴望獲得更多頻譜,這一點毋庸置疑,但或許在其他條件相同的情況下,他們可以透過軟體升級而不是新租賃來部署更多頻譜,這可能會成為一個不利因素。您能否就此發表一下看法,您認為這將如何影響該產業的未來發展?
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Maybe I'll start, and you can jump in. So I think if you're referencing as an example, AT&T's deployment of the 3.45 spectrum, specifically where they had already deployed radios that -- and antennas that could utilize that band on a portion of their portfolio, and were able to very rapidly roll out that spectrum, basically with just the software to unlock those channels. That certainly does exist in some cases.
或許我可以先開始,然後你可以加入。所以,如果你以 AT&T 部署 3.45 頻譜為例,特別是他們已經在部分業務中部署了可以利用該頻段的無線電和天線,並且能夠非常迅速地推出該頻譜,基本上只需要軟體就能解鎖這些頻道。這種情況在某些情況下確實存在。
But as an example, the other spectrum that AT&T purchased the 600 megahertz, these are typically new radios and new antennas because the physics are such that you have these massive MIMO antennas for the low bands that provide -- it's called the beachfront property spectrum in terms of the spectrum goes further, it penetrates in buildings for urban and suburban-type scenarios. This is something that they don't currently have deployed and would potentially involve having new antennas and new radios deployed out at sites in order to take advantage of that spectrum.
但舉例來說,AT&T 購買的另一個頻譜是 600 兆赫茲,這些通常用於新的無線電和新的天線,因為物理特性決定了低頻段需要使用大量的 MIMO 天線——就頻譜而言,它被稱為海濱地產頻譜,因為它的覆蓋範圍更廣,可以穿透建築物,適用於城市和郊區類型的場景。這是他們目前尚未部署的設備,可能需要在各個站點部署新的天線和新的無線電設備才能利用該頻譜。
So it really depends on the exact (inaudible) and whether those frequencies that have been purchased have already been predeployed on a certain number of sites, whether they're able to do that. And in the case of AT&T, as I just said a second ago, it is a portion of the sites that they had the equipment on. There's still a number of additional sites that they would have to deploy in order to take advantage of deploying frequency. So that's a good case study, I think, hopefully in answering your question.
所以這真的取決於具體情況(聽不清楚),以及那些已經購買的頻率是否已經在一定數量的站點上預先部署,他們是否能夠做到這一點。就 AT&T 而言,正如我剛才所說,這只是他們部署設備的部分網站。他們還需要部署一些額外的站點才能充分利用部署頻率。所以,我認為這是一個很好的案例研究,希望能夠回答你的問題。
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. And also, software upgrades are very helpful, but at the same time, remember there are limits to how much data rates can be pushed through and the power required to do that. So ultimately, like any of these things, if you look at the rate of bit growth, that's why radios and antennas have to keep getting replaced over time.
是的。此外,軟體升級非常有幫助,但同時,請記住資料傳輸速率和所需功率都是有限的。所以歸根結底,就像任何這類事物一樣,如果你觀察位元成長的速度,就會明白為什麼無線電和天線需要隨著時間的推移而不斷更換。
Operator
Operator
David Barden, New Street Research.
David Barden,新街研究公司。
David Barden - Analyst
David Barden - Analyst
It's nice to talk to you again. So my first question is -- I don't want to throw Rick under the bus, but Rick and I are probably the two oldest guys on this call. And I don't remember the last time that there was a time when a carrier decided we're not going to pay our bills. So could you walk us through exactly what happens when the carrier doesn't pay their bills? Are you going to go send the team of guys out there and snip wires? Or are you going to like rip this stuff down and sell it to China for scrap metal? Like what does that look like? And how do you account for that? Like I just don't know. So that's question number one.
很高興能再次和你聊天。所以我的第一個問題是——我不想把里克出賣,但是里克和我可能是這次通話中年紀最大的兩個人了。我不記得上一次有業者決定不支付帳單是什麼時候了。那麼,您能否詳細介紹一下,當運營商不支付帳單時會發生什麼情況?你是打算派人出去剪斷電線嗎?還是說你們打算把這些東西拆了,然後賣給中國當廢金屬?那看起來是什麼樣子的呢?那你如何解釋這種情況?我真的不知道。這是第一個問題。
And then the second question would be -- just your guys' understanding. So we've been talking a lot to governments, to the carriers about the C-band, upper C-band auction, its proximity to the radio altimeter band up at the 4.2 to 4.4 and how that could slow down deployment, and I'm wondering if you guys have a view on kind of how the next big massive spectrum auction that's going to happen in the United States could ultimately affect the tower industry.
那麼第二個問題就是──你們的理解。所以我們一直在與各國政府和營運商討論 C 頻段、高頻段的拍賣,以及它與 4.2 到 4.4 頻段的無線電高度計頻段的接近程度,以及這可能會如何減緩部署速度。我想知道你們對即將在美國舉行的下一次大規模頻譜拍賣最終會如何影響鐵塔產業有什麼看法。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Well, maybe just start with the first one. I mean, we don't really want to go into a disclosure of our specific commercial agreements with a specific customer as a practice. But at the end of the day, if a customer doesn't pay and they're in default and you serve them and you terminate a contract, then there's an obligation for them to remove their equipment in a timely basis as per the terms of the contract, right? So --
是的。或許就從第一個開始。我的意思是,我們通常不想公開與特定客戶的特定商業協議。但歸根結底,如果客戶不付款,構成違約,而你向他們提供服務並終止了合同,那麼他們有義務按照合約條款及時拆除設備,對吧?所以--
David Barden - Analyst
David Barden - Analyst
It's on them. It's not you, it's them?
這都怪他們。不是你的錯,是他們的錯?
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's them.
就是他們。
David Barden - Analyst
David Barden - Analyst
There's no way DISH is going to do that. You know just DISH is not going to do that.
DISH 絕對不會這麼做。你知道,光靠DISH是做不到這一點的。
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So well, we'll see. We'll see what happens here as they approach their (inaudible) period. The contract has been terminated and they -- it's their obligation to remove the equipment.
那我們拭目以待。讓我們來看看隨著她們(聽不清楚)月經期的臨近,這裡會發生什麼事。合約已經終止,他們有義務拆除設備。
More broadly speaking, I've been in the industry a long time as well, almost 30 years or 30 years, half of it as an operator. And I also can't remember a time since maybe before the consolidation of those regional carriers that ultimately became T-Mobile or part of AT&T or Verizon, where we had somebody just turn out the lights and walk away from obligations like they have. It's it's pretty amazing, actually, to have witnessed this in my lifetime.
更廣泛地說,我入行也很久了,差不多有 30 年了,其中一半時間是當操作員。而且,我也不記得自從那些最終合併成 T-Mobile 或 AT&T 或 Verizon 的區域運營商合併之前,是否曾有過像他們這樣突然關燈關門、一走了之的情況。說實話,能在有生之年親眼見證這一切,真是太神奇了。
On your second question, to try to answer it, so if you recall when the initial C-band auctions that occurred and they started to deploy, there was a number of concerns about the potential interference with the (inaudible) and the avionics and it caused a bunch of headaches working with the FAA in the industry in order to come up with a plan on how they would deploy that, which has subsequently been fixed. I think there was some good lessons learned there of how the MNOs can work alongside with government to come up with solutions to be able to deploy it.
關於你的第二個問題,我試著回答。如果你還記得最初的 C 波段拍賣和部署時的情況,當時有很多關於可能幹擾(聽不清楚)和航空電子設備的擔憂,這給與美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 和業內人士合作制定部署計劃帶來了很多麻煩,但後來這個問題已經得到解決。我認為,行動網路營運商可以從中吸取一些很好的經驗教訓,了解它們如何與政府合作,提出部署解決方案。
And so it's not as if this will be the first time that they had to navigate through these types of challenges. And again, while there was an initial hiccup in the deployment, they very rapidly solved it, and I think are in a much better position now overall as a result with the solution that work for all parties.
所以,這並非他們第一次面臨這類挑戰。再次強調,雖然部署初期出現了一些小問題,但他們很快就解決了這個問題,我認為因此,他們現在的整體處境要好得多,因為找到了一個對各方都有利的解決方案。
So these will consistently be challenges as you start to auction off spectrum that has use -- is in use by others, including government entities, on figuring out how to best clear the bands and provide the use of that spectrum, putting it to work. There's clearly a huge demand by operators to have access to additional spectrum -- and from what the FCC has signaled, they're in a position with that 800 megahertz that they've indicated that they intend to auction and (inaudible) take rapid action to put it to use. And more importantly, that rises the tide for all boats and all tower companies as a result of that spectrum being deployed.
因此,當你開始拍賣那些已被他人(包括政府實體)使用的頻譜時,如何最好地清理頻段並提供頻譜的使用權,使其發揮作用,將始終是一個挑戰。營運商顯然對獲得更多頻譜有著巨大的需求——而從 FCC 的訊號來看,他們已經表明打算拍賣那 800 兆赫的頻譜,並(聽不清楚)迅速採取行動加以利用。更重要的是,由於該頻譜的部署,所有船隻和所有鐵塔公司都將受益。
So we're -- we support it. We believe it's the right thing to do for public resource, which is again why we support ultimately DISH's sale of the spectrum to AT&T and SpaceX.
所以我們——我們支持它。我們認為這樣做對公共資源是正確的,這也是我們最終支持 DISH 將頻譜出售給 AT&T 和 SpaceX 的原因。
David Barden - Analyst
David Barden - Analyst
And I really appreciate that. And if I could ask one follow-up. Sunit, when Charlie fails to follow through on his obligation to remove the equipment, how long does it take before we find out? And then what happens?
我真的很感激。如果可以的話,我想問一個後續問題。蘇尼特,當查理沒有履行他移除設備的義務時,我們多久才會發現?然後會發生什麼事?
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Hillabrant - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Again, I hesitate to answer specifics on that because as you can imagine, these are fairly large contracts with all kinds of provisions. So I mean I just leave it at that. But what I will say is we are doing everything we can within the contract in Washington, as Chris was talking about and make sure we are enforcing our rights and being aggressive about it.
我再次猶豫是否要回答具體細節,因為正如您所想,這些都是相當大的合同,包含各種各樣的條款。所以,我就說到這裡吧。但我要說的是,正如克里斯剛才所說,我們正在華盛頓盡一切努力遵守合同,確保我們行使我們的權利,並積極主動地維護我們的權利。
Operator
Operator
Batya Levi, UBS.
Batya Levi,瑞銀集團。
Batya Levi - Analyst
Batya Levi - Analyst
Great. One more follow-up on the leasing question. the slowdown that you -- that we're potentially seeing excluding DISH, is that across the board or maybe specific to a player? And can you help us understand the amendment versus densification mix? Is the back half weighted more related to potential densification efforts flowing through?
偉大的。關於租賃問題,我還有一個後續問題。您提到的-我們可能看到的(不包括 DISH)業務放緩,是普遍現象,還是僅限於某個特定運營商?您能幫我們理解改良與增產結合的意義嗎?後半部的權重是否與潛在的密集化建設工作更為相關?
And another one on the cost side. How does the $65 million lower cost outlook compared to your prior expectations given the progress you've made last year?
成本方面也存在一些問題。考慮到去年的進展,與您之前的預期相比,降低 6,500 萬美元的成本預期有何不同?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Thanks. I think, first of all, on the slowdown point, as I was saying, if you look at the '25 numbers and the '26 guide. If you were to adjust for the change in other billings, the growth this year is about where it was last year, in the same zip code. So -- so not much change there, I would say, compared to last year. Most of it is a comp for change in other billings.
是的。謝謝。我認為,首先,關於放緩這一點,正如我剛才所說,如果你看看 2025 年的數據和 2026 年的指導方針。如果考慮到其他帳單的變化,今年的成長與去年同期在同一郵遞區號區域的成長大致相同。所以——我覺得和去年相比,變化不大。大部分是其他帳單變更的補償。
And then in terms of the proportion on colo versus amendment, we haven't seen anything about the same ratio as we've seen last year. And then the -- yes, I mean, the leasing activity, as I said, is in line with what we are seeing last year, excluding the impact of DISH in both periods.
至於投票與修改的比例,我們還沒有看到與去年大致相同的比例。然後——是的,我的意思是,正如我所說,租賃活動與我們去年看到的情況一致,不包括 DISH 在這兩個時期的影響。
Batya Levi - Analyst
Batya Levi - Analyst
And on the cost side?
成本方面呢?
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
On the cost side, I think that -- we did say upon the announcement of the transaction when we provided the guide post the close of the transaction that we are -- take some costs out. So I think what you're seeing here is in line, but I think the bigger point that we've talked about in previous calls is we think there is continued opportunity for us to make some investments in platforms and systems in the next couple of years drive better customer experience, whether it's cycle times or interactions with customers, more efficiency, higher productivity levels.
在成本方面,我認為——我們在宣布交易時,在交易完成後提供的指導意見中確實說過——我們正在削減一些成本。所以我認為你在這裡看到的是一致的,但我認為我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的更重要的一點是,我們認為在未來幾年裡,我們仍然有機會對平台和系統進行一些投資,以推動更好的客戶體驗,無論是周期時間還是與客戶的互動,提高效率和生產力水平。
So I think as Chris Hillabrant mentioned, we are on a pathway to to pursue a series of initiatives that we think both in terms of investments and automation that we think, including some AI efforts that we think will continue to drive improvement on the cost side over the next couple of years.
所以我認為正如克里斯·希拉布蘭特所提到的,我們正在走上一條推進一系列舉措的道路,我們認為這些舉措,無論是在投資方面還是在自動化方面,包括一些人工智能方面的努力,都將在未來幾年繼續推動成本方面的改進。
Operator
Operator
Aryeh Klein, BMO Capital Markets.
Aryeh Klein,BMO資本市場。
Aryeh Klein - Analyst
Aryeh Klein - Analyst
I imagine there are some legal costs associated with DISH. Is that in G&A? And is it of any significance?
我想DISH應該會產生一些法律費用。那項費用計入一般及行政費用嗎?這有什麼意義嗎?
And then the composition of share repurchase and debt repayments a little different than previously discussed with less repurchases. Is that largely to maintain leverage --
然後,股票回購和債務償還的組成與先前討論的略有不同,回購數量減少了。這主要是為了維持槓桿作用嗎?--
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sunit Patel - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So let me cover the legal costs. So yes, I mean, we've thought about it as we provided our guidance, they can always be something extreme, but I think it's factored into the guidance that we provided.
是的。那我就來承擔訴訟費用吧。是的,我的意思是,我們在提供指導時已經考慮到了這一點,它們總是可能出現極端情況,但我認為這已經納入了我們提供的指導之中。
On your second question, I think that -- sorry, give me a second. Yes. I mean on your second question, I think we -- the capital allocation framework we outlined was for leverage of 6 to 6.5. So if you look through that, with the change in the DISH outlook and you look at our EBITDA and AFFO outlook, we thought it made sense to pay down more debt and stay within the range because as we said previously, the key for us is to be investment grade. So this keeps us in the leverage ratio with outlined and continues to preserve financial flexibility and also provide good risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders.
關於你的第二個問題,我想——抱歉,請稍等一下。是的。關於你的第二個問題,我認為我們之前製定的資本配置框架是針對6到6.5倍槓桿率的。所以,如果你仔細分析一下,考慮到DISH前景的變化,以及我們對EBITDA和AFFO的預期,我們認為償還更多債務並保持在既定範圍內是合理的,因為正如我們之前所說,對我們來說,關鍵是達到投資級。這樣一來,我們就能維持規定的槓桿率,繼續保持財務彈性,並為股東提供良好的風險調整後回報。
Operator
Operator
At this time, there are no more questions. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
目前沒有其他問題了。會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。