Cabot Corp (CBT) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Cabot second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加卡博特 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Steve Delahunt, Vice President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、副總裁、財務主管和投資者關係主管史蒂夫·德拉亨特 (Steve Delahunt)。請繼續。

Thanks, Deedee, and good morning. I would like to welcome you to the Cabot Corporation earnings teleconference. With me today are Sean Keohane, CEO and President; and Erica McLaughlin, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝，Deedee，早安。歡迎您參加卡博特公司收益電話會議。今天和我一起的還有執行長兼總裁 Sean Keohane；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Erica McLaughlin。

Last night, we released results for our second quarter of fiscal year 2025, copies of which are posted in the Investor Relations section of our website. The slide deck that accompanies this call is also available in the Investor Relations portion of our website and will be available in conjunction with the replay of the call.

昨晚，我們發布了 2025 財年第二季的業績，其副本發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分。本次電話會議附帶的幻燈片也可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到，並將與電話會議的重播一起提供。

During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements about our expected future operational and financial performance. Each forward-looking statement is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將對預期的未來營運和財務表現做出前瞻性陳述。每個前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中預測的結果有重大差異。

Additional information regarding these factors appears in the press release we issued last night and in our 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2024, and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC, all of which are available on the company website.

有關這些因素的更多資​​訊出現在我們昨晚發布的新聞稿和截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的財政年度的 10-K 文件中，以及我們隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，所有這些文件都可以在公司網站上找到。

In order to provide greater transparency regarding our operating performance, we refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that involve adjustments to GAAP results. The non-GAAP financial measures referenced on this call are reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in a table at the end of our earnings release issued last night and available in the Investors section of our website.

為了使我們的經營業績更加透明，我們參考了某些涉及對 GAAP 結果進行調整的非 GAAP 財務指標。本次電話會議中引用的非 GAAP 財務指標與我們昨晚發布的收益報告末尾表格中最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標進行了協調，該表格可在我們網站的「投資者」部分查閱。

I will now turn the call over to Sean, who will discuss the second quarter highlights and the expected impacts to our business from recent tariff announcements. Erica will review the second quarter financial highlights and the business segment results. Following this, Sean we'll discuss our outlook for fiscal 2025 and then open the floor to questions. Sean?

現在我將電話轉給肖恩，他將討論第二季的亮點以及最近的關稅公告對我們業務的預期影響。艾莉卡將回顧第二季的財務亮點和業務部門的表現。接下來，肖恩，我們將討論我們對 2025 財年的展望，然後開始回答問題。肖恩？

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our call today. I am pleased with our strong second quarter results which are in line with our expectations. We delivered Q2 adjusted earnings per share of $1.90, which is up 7% as compared to the same period in the prior year.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加我們今天的電話會議。我對我們第二季的強勁業績感到滿意，這符合我們的預期。我們第二季調整後的每股盈餘為 1.90 美元，比去年同期成長 7%。

When combined with first quarter results, adjusted earnings per share grew 10% in the first half of fiscal 2025 as compared to the same period in fiscal 2024. Overall, we continue to execute at a high-level and demonstrate agility in this dynamic and challenging macroeconomic environment.

結合第一季業績，2025財年上半年調整後每股收益與2024財年同期相比成長了10%。總體而言，我們將繼續保持高水準的執行力，並在這個充滿活力和挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中展現敏捷性。

EBIT in Reinforcement Materials was $131 million, up 1% sequentially and down 12% year over year. Results in this business remain strong despite the volume headwind from lower tire demand within the quarter. EBIT in Performance Chemicals was up 61% compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2024, driven by improved margins and higher volumes, particularly in the fumed silica product line.

增強材料業務的息稅前利潤為 1.31 億美元，季增 1%，年減 12%。儘管本季輪胎需求下降導致銷售面臨阻力，但該業務的業績依然強勁。與 2024 財年第二季相比，高性能化學品部門的息稅前利潤成長了 61%，這得益於利潤率的提高和銷量的增加，尤其是氣相二氧化矽產品線。

Volumes in the segment have generally stabilized and reconnected underlying demand drivers in our key end markets. Additionally, we continue to make strong commercial progress in the battery materials product line, generating year-over-year volume growth of 10% in the first half of fiscal 2025 with a solid level of profit growth.

該部門的銷售量總體上已經穩定下來，並重新連接了我們主要終端市場的潛在需求驅動因素。此外，我們在電池材料產品線的商業化進程中持續取得強勁進展，2025財年上半年銷量較去年同期成長10%，利潤成長穩健。

Our strategy is to focus on the high-performance segment of the market in China with differentiated products while developing a business with customers that are building battery plants in the Western economies.

我們的策略是專注於中國市場的高性能領域，提供差異化產品，同時與在西方經濟體建立電池廠的客戶開展業務。

While the development of battery production in North America and Europe is developing more slowly than originally anticipated, we continue to believe these markets will become large and therefore remain a key growth priority for us.

儘管北美和歐洲的電池生產發展速度比最初預期的要慢，但我們仍然相信這些市場將會變得龐大，因此仍然是我們的主要成長重點。

Returning capital to shareholders remains an important component of our capital allocation framework, and in the quarter, we return $70 million to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. Given the strength of our underlying business fundamentals and conviction in the long-term cash flow generation of our portfolio, yesterday we announced a 5% increase in our quarterly dividend.

向股東返還資本仍然是我們資本配置框架的重要組成部分，本季度，我們透過股票回購和股利等方式向股東返還了 7,000 萬美元。鑑於我們基礎業務基本面的強勁以及對我們投資組合的長期現金流產生的信心，昨天我們宣布將季度股息提高 5%。

This is consistent with our capital allocation framework to increase the dividend as our earnings and cash flows grow. We have increased our annual dividend per share payment every calendar year for the last 10 years. As a result of the recent tariff announcements, I thought it would be helpful to provide more detail on our direct tariff exposures by region.

這與我們的資本配置框架一致，即隨著我們的收益和現金流的成長而增加股利。在過去 10 年裡，我們每年都增加每股年度股利。鑑於最近的關稅公告，我認為提供按地區劃分的直接關稅風險的更多詳細資訊將會有所幫助。

Given that we have a make and sell in region model, our businesses are largely insulated from direct tariff impacts, and we are well positioned to support our customers and capture growth from shifting downstream supply chains. In each of our major regions, the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific, at least 95% of our volumes within those regions are produced in that same region.

鑑於我們採用區域生產和銷售模式，我們的業務基本上不受直接關稅的影響，我們完全有能力支持我們的客戶並從下游供應鏈的轉變中獲得成長。在我們的每個主要地區，即美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲以及亞太地區，這些地區內至少 95% 的產量都產自同一地區。

Specifically in North America, our products are considered USMCA compliant and therefore, we expect no impact at this time from any tariffs in this region. Between the major regions, there are small amounts of cross-border sales for some of our high-end specialty products where we are directly exposed to tariff increases.

特別是在北美，我們的產品符合 USMCA 標準，因此，我們預計目前該地區的任何關稅不會對其產生影響。在主要地區之間，我們的一些高端特色產品存在少量跨境銷售，直接受到關稅上調的影響。

In those cases, we expect to be able to pass on any tariffs through contractual formulas and by implementing increases in spot pricing. While the current tariff landscape is highly dynamic with varying levels of implemented, proposed and paused tariffs around the world, the Cabot team continues to respond well in support of our customers, and we believe that our direct exposure is manageable.

在這些情況下，我們希望能夠透過合約方式和提高現貨價格來轉嫁任何關稅。儘管當前的關稅情況高度動態，世界各地實施、提議和暫停的關稅水平各不相同，但卡博特團隊繼續為我們的客戶提供良好的支持，我們相信我們的直接風險是可控的。

The uncertainty is, however, causing customers to adopt a cautious posture in the short-term around inventory levels as we are seeing signs of customers curtailing production to reduce inventory levels and manage risk until the trade picture becomes more clear.

然而，這種不確定性導致客戶在短期內對庫存水準採取謹慎態度，因為我們看到有跡象表明客戶正在削減產量以降低庫存水準並管理風險，直到貿易狀況變得更加明朗。

To address the uncertainty caused by tariff policies, we are executing a broad range of countermeasures. First and foremost, we are working closely with our customers to understand how their production might shift as a result of tariff policies and offering volume support from our expansive global plant network.

為了應對關稅政策帶來的不確定性，我們正在實施一系列應對措施。首先，我們正在與客戶密切合作，了解他們的生產如何因關稅政策而發生變化，並透過我們廣泛的全球工廠網路提供批量支援。

In the limited number of cases where our products are exposed to direct tariffs, we expect to recover the impacts through formula and spot pricing adjustments. We expect our near-term volumes to be impacted by customers adopting a more cautious approach to inventory levels and are implementing a range of product optimization actions across our global plant network.

在我們的產品受到直接關稅影響的有限情況下，我們期望透過公式和現貨定價調整來恢復影響。我們預計，我們的近期銷售將受到客戶採取更謹慎的庫存水準方法的影響，並且正在我們的全球工廠網路中實施一系列產品優化措施。

We are also executing fixed cost and procurement initiatives that we expect will contribute $30 million of savings in fiscal year 2025. And finally, we will adjust the timing of some capital projects to align with customer demand, resulting in a lower CapEx forecast which is now expected to be in the range of $250 million to $275 million.

我們也正在實施固定成本和採購計劃，預計到 2025 財年將節省 3,000 萬美元。最後，我們將調整一些資本項目的時間以適應客戶需求，從而降低資本支出預測，目前預計在 2.5 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間。

Despite the uncertainty caused by tariff policies, we believe the fundamentals of our company remain very strong and are creating for tomorrow's strategy positioned as well for long-term shareholder value creation. There are several features of our company that we believe distinguish us from competition and set us up for long-term success.

儘管關稅政策帶來了不確定性，但我們相信公司的基本面仍然強勁，並且正在為未來的策略制定，為長期股東創造價值。我們相信，我們公司的幾個特點使我們在競爭中脫穎而出，並為我們的長期成功奠定了基礎。

First, Cabot is a global company with assets in sales that are relatively equally distributed across the three major regions of the world, the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific. This balanced geographic footprint and model of make in regions, sell in region is more important than ever in this changing global trade environment.

首先，卡博特是一家全球性公司，其銷售資產相對均勻地分佈在全球三大地區，分別是美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區。在不斷變化的全球貿易環境中，這種平衡的地理分佈和區域製造、區域銷售的模式比以往任何時候都更重要。

In each of these regions, we have local assets and local management teams to serve our customers, giving us unique market insights and the necessary experience to navigate local complexities and capture growth. We believe our track record of strong cash generation and our investment grade balance sheet allow us to weather economic cycles while enabling the capacity to fund strategic growth investments and return consistent robust levels of cash to shareholders.

在每個地區，我們都擁有本地資產和本地管理團隊來服務我們的客戶，這為我們提供獨特的市場洞察力和必要的經驗，以應對當地的複雜情況並實現成長。我們相信，我們強勁的現金創造記錄和投資等級資產負債表使我們能夠度過經濟週期，同時有能力為策略成長投資提供資金並向股東返還持續強勁的現金水準。

As I mentioned earlier in my remarks, yesterday, we increased our dividend by 5% and expect to return meaningful cash through share repurchases in fiscal 2025. And finally, I believe this management team has demonstrated a commitment to disciplined execution, resulting in our ability to navigate through dynamic macroeconomic environments while achieving our goals and delivering strong shareholder returns.

正如我昨天在發言中提到的那樣，我們將股息提高了 5%，並預計在 2025 財年透過股票回購獲得可觀的現金回報。最後，我相信這個管理團隊已經表現出對嚴格執行的承諾，使我們能夠在動態的宏觀經濟環境中導航，同時實現我們的目標並為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

I will now turn it over to Erica to discuss the financial results for the quarter. Erica.

現在我將把主題交給 Erica，討論本季的財務結果。艾麗卡。

Thanks, Sean. I will start by discussing results for the company and then review the segment results. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 grew 7% from $1.78 in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 to $1.90, with growth from the Performance Chemicals segment partially offset by a decline in the Reinforcement Materials segment.

謝謝，肖恩。我會先討論公司的業績，然後再回顧各部門的業績。2025 財年第二季調整後每股盈餘從 2024 財年第二季的 1.78 美元成長 7% 至 1.90 美元，其中高性能化學品部門的成長部分被增強材料部門的下滑所抵銷。

Cash flow from operations was $73 million in the quarter, which included a working capital increase of [$76 million]. Discretionary free cash flow was $110 million in the quarter. The cash balance at the end of the quarter was $213 million and our liquidity position remains strong at approximately $1.2 billion.

本季營運現金流為 7,300 萬美元，其中包括營運資本增加[7600萬美元]。本季可自由支配的自由現金流為 1.1 億美元。本季末的現金餘額為 2.13 億美元，我們的流動性狀況依然強勁，約 12 億美元。

Capital expenditures for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 were $72 million and we expect $250 million to $275 million of capital spending for the fiscal year. Additional uses of cash during the second quarter were $23 million for dividends and $47 million for share repurchases.

2025 財年第二季的資本支出為 7,200 萬美元，我們預期本財年的資本支出為 2.5 億至 2.75 億美元。第二季的額外現金用途包括 2,300 萬美元的股利和 4,700 萬美元的股票回購。

Our debt balance was $1.3 billion and our net debt to EBITDA was 1.4 times. The year-to-date operating tax rate for fiscal 2025 was 28%, and we continue to anticipate our operating tax rate for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of 27% to 29%.

我們的債務餘額為 13 億美元，淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 1.4 倍。2025 財年迄今的營業稅率為 28%，我們繼續預期 2025 財年的營業稅率將在 27% 至 29% 之間。

Now moving to Reinforcement Materials. During the first quarter, EBIT for Reinforcement Materials was $131 million, which was a decrease of $18 million as compared to the same period in the prior year. The decrease was primarily driven by lower global volumes, which were down 7% year-over-year from lower tire demand and the contract outcomes in South America. Regionally, volumes were down 9% in the Americas, 8% in Asia Pacific and 1% in Europe.

現在轉向增強材料。第一季度，增強材料業務的息稅前利潤為 1.31 億美元，較去年同期減少 1,800 萬美元。下降的主要原因是全球銷量下降，由於輪胎需求下降和南美合約結果不佳，全球銷量較去年同期下降 7%。從地區來看，美洲地區銷量下降了 9%，亞太地區下降了 8%，歐洲下降了 1%。

Looking to the third quarter of fiscal 2025, we expect Reinforcement Materials EBIT to be down modestly as compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2025 as global macroeconomic uncertainty is expected to cause customers to be cautious about orders and inventory levels.

展望 2025 財年第三季度，我們預計增強材料息稅前利潤將與 2025 財年第二季度相比小幅下降，因為預計全球宏觀經濟的不確定性將導致客戶對訂單和庫存水準持謹慎態度。

Now turning to Performance Chemicals. EBIT increased by $19 million in the second fiscal quarter as compared to the same period in fiscal 2024. The increase in the second quarter was due to higher volumes and higher gross profit per ton. Volumes were up 4% year over year, driven by higher volumes in our fumed metal oxides product line, as we saw a reconnection of underlying demand to our volumes in construction and semiconductor applications as compared to the prior year.

現在轉向高性能化學品。與 2024 財年同期相比，第二財季息稅前利潤增加了 1,900 萬美元。第二季的成長是由於產量增加和每噸毛利增加。由於氣相金屬氧化物產品線的銷量增加，銷量較去年同期成長了 4%，因為與前一年相比，我們發現建築和半導體應用領域的潛在需求與銷售量重新掛鉤。

As we've noted before, our fumed metal oxide product line has above average margins for the segment. So the increased volumes in this product line drove meaningful improvement in EBIT for the segment. The improvement in gross profit per ton was driven by targeted price increases and cost savings and optimization measures across the segment.

正如我們之前提到的，我們的氣相金屬氧化物產品線的利潤率高於該領域的平均值。因此，該產品線產量的增加推動了該部門息稅前利潤的顯著提升。每噸毛利的提高得益於有針對性的價格上漲以及整個部門的成本節約和優化措施。

Looking ahead to the third quarter of fiscal 2025, we expect Performance Chemicals EBIT to be in line with the second quarter of fiscal 2025, as seasonal increases are largely offset by customer destocking in China, as customers remain cautious about inventory levels given the tariff policy situation.

展望2025財年第三季度，我們預計高性能化學品息稅前利潤將與2025財年第二季度持平，因為季節性增長在很大程度上被中國客戶的去庫存所抵消，因為考慮到關稅政策情況，客戶對庫存水平仍保持謹慎。

I will now turn the call back over to Sean to discuss the fiscal year outlook.

現在我將把電話轉回給肖恩，討論財政年度展望。

Thanks Erica. When we set our fiscal year 2025 adjusted earnings per share guidance back in November, we weren't anticipating tariffs, and we assumed global GDP growth as projected at that time. Obviously, the situation has changed dramatically with significant tariffs announced by the US administration and corresponding counteraction.

謝謝艾麗卡。當我們在 11 月設定 2025 財年調整後每股盈餘指引時，我們並沒有預料到關稅，我們假設全球 GDP 成長率與當時的預測一致。顯然，隨著美國政府宣布徵收高額關稅以及相應的反制措施，情況發生了巨大變化。

While the situation remains extremely dynamic, the uncertainty is beginning to have an impact on the order patterns at our customers as they adopt a more cautious posture on inventory levels. At the start of the fiscal year, we were expecting volumes and Reinforcement Materials to grow in the low single-digit percentage and volumes and Performance Chemicals to increase in the mid single digit percentage.

儘管情況仍然極具動態，但不確定性開始對客戶的訂單模式產生影響，因為他們對庫存水準採取了更謹慎的態度。在本財政年度開始時，我們預計增強材料的銷量將以低個位數百分比增長，而高性能化學品的銷量將以中等個位數百分比增長。

The guide also assumed November's foreign exchange rates and the forward curve for oil at that time. While we delivered as planned through the first half of the fiscal year, the escalating tariff war in recent months is causing uncertainty for customers and therefore is now expected to impact our demand levels in the second half of the year.

該指南還假設了當時 11 月的外匯匯率和石油遠期曲線。雖然我們在本財年上半年按計劃交付，但近幾個月不斷升級的關稅戰給客戶帶來了不確定性，因此預計會影響我們下半年的需求水準。

At the same time, we are facing a slowing GDP outlook and lower energy prices which negatively impact our energy center revenue and the benefit from our yield improvement projects. To respond to the weaker demand environment, we've been executing a range of procurement and cost savings initiatives.

同時，我們面臨 GDP 前景放緩和能源價格下跌的問題，這對我們的能源中心收入和產量提高項目的收益產生了負面影響。為了因應較弱的需求環境，我們一直在實施一系列採購和成本節約措施。

These measures are a combination of belt tightening, targeted restructuring actions and procurement savings, which we expect to total approximately $30 million in the fiscal year. These steps have been helpful, but do not fully offset the expected volume impact in the second half of our fiscal year.

這些措施包括緊縮開支、有針對性的重組行動和採購節省，我們預計本財政年度的總額將達到約 3,000 萬美元。這些措施是有幫助的，但並不能完全抵銷我們財政年度下半年預期的銷售影響。

In Reinforcement Materials, we now expect volumes to decline the low single-digit percentage for the fiscal year, and in Performance Chemicals we are expecting volume growth in the low single-digit percentage.

在增強材料領域，我們目前預計本財年的銷量將以低個位數百分比下降，而在高性能化學品領域，我們預計銷量將以低個位數百分比成長。

With this backdrop in mind, I'll talk about our 2025 outlook. First, as I mentioned previously, we feel very good about the first half results which were in line with our expectations. In the first half of fiscal 2025, adjusted earnings per share was up 10% as compared to the prior year, while adjusted EBITDA was up 7% over the same period.

基於這樣的背景，我將談談我們對 2025 年的展望。首先，正如我之前提到的，我們對上半年的業績感到非常滿意，這符合我們的預期。2025財年上半年，調整後每股盈餘較上年同期成長10%，調整後EBITDA較上年同期成長7%。

These results had us on a path to achieve our full year adjusted EPS guidance range. But we are now in a period of uncertainty around trade policy, which is causing cautious customer order patterns resulting in lower volume estimates in both segments. Based primarily on the change of our volume outlook, we now expect full year adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.15 to $7.50.

這些結果使我們有望實現全年調整後的每股盈餘預期範圍。但我們目前正處於貿易政策不確定的時期，這導致客戶訂單模式謹慎，從而導致兩個部門的銷售量預估均下降。主要基於我們對銷售預期的變化，我們現在預計全年調整後每股收益將在 7.15 美元至 7.50 美元之間。

This range, which is a decrease of about 3.5% at the midpoint, includes our proactive countermeasures just discussed. Our outlook also reflects April foreign exchange rates and the forward curve for both energy and interest rates.

這個範圍，中間值下降了約3.5%，其中包括我們剛才討論過的主動對策。我們的展望也反映了四月份外匯匯率以及能源和利率的遠期曲線。

This revised range continues to represent earnings growth in the fiscal year, despite the significant uncertainty caused by tariff announcements. Cash generation is expected to remain strong, and we expect to return a robust amount of cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

儘管關稅公告帶來了很大的不確定性，但這項修訂後的範圍仍然代表著本財年的獲利成長。預計現金產生能力將保持強勁，我們預計將透過股息和股票回購向股東返還大量現金。

Our recent announcement of a 5% increase in our dividend is consistent with our expectation to grow the dividend over time as earnings and cash flows grow. We also expect to repurchase between $100 million and $200 million of shares in fiscal 2025.

我們最近宣布將股息提高 5%，這與我們的預期一致，即隨著收益和現金流的增長，股息也會隨之增加。我們也預計在 2025 財年回購價值 1 億至 2 億美元的股票。

Despite the current environment, I remain very pleased with how the company is positioned today. I believe we have the right strategy and capital allocation priorities, and I'm confident in our team's agility and execution capabilities.

儘管當前環境如此，我仍然對公司目前的定位感到非常滿意。我相信我們擁有正確的策略和資本配置重點，並且我對我們團隊的敏捷性和執行能力充滿信心。

Thank you very much for joining us today, and I'll now turn the call back over for our Q&A session.

非常感謝您今天加入我們，現在我將把電話轉回給我們的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) John Roberts Mizuho

（操作員指示）約翰·羅伯茨·瑞穗

Thank you. I just wanted to do a little bit of bridge work on the Reinforcement volumes. So you went from plus low-single digit for the year to down low-single digit for the year. So several percentage point swing that's there, and it's all in the second half, I guess.

謝謝。我只是想在增援卷上做一些橋樑工作。因此，今年的獲利從正低個位數變成負低個位數。所以那裡有幾個百分點的波動，我想這都是在下半年。

The first half, it looks like down 3% in the first half. You were plus 1% in the first quarter and minus 7% in the second quarter. So that seems like you were expecting a lot of gain in the second half originally. And I don't know what's the second half look like second half to second half?

上半年看起來下降了 3%。第一季成長了 1%，而第二季則下降了 7%。所以看起來你原本就期望下半年能有很大收益。我不知道下半場會是什麼樣子？

Sure, John. So maybe just a bit of context around volumes first off, and then I'll try to address your bridge question there because I think the volume picture globally has developed a bit differently depending on the region. So maybe just a quick walk around the world and then again, I'll address that bridge question.

當然，約翰。因此，首先我們來簡單介紹一下交易量的背景，然後我會嘗試解答您的橋樑問題，因為我認為全球交易量的情況因地區不同而略有不同。因此，也許只是快速地環遊世界，然後我再回答那個橋樑問題。

In the Americas, as you saw in the press release and the comments here, volumes were down pretty sharply. The volume decline was driven by South America, where we saw lower contract volume outcomes as we told you last quarter. Additionally, I think that market remains difficult in the near-term as they're seeing an elevated level of Chinese tire imports.

在美洲，正如您在新聞稿和評論中看到的那樣，交易量急劇下降。交易量下降是由南美洲造成的，正如我們上個季度所告訴您的那樣，那裡的合約交易量較低。此外，我認為短期內市場仍然很困難，因為中國輪胎進口量正在增加。

In North America, tire import levels were about the same as last year, and we only saw a small decline in our volumes as passenger car and TBR OE in particular was weak. And this was called out by many of the global tire makers. The replacement market was a bit soft on economic uncertainty as well. So the Americas was heavily influenced by South America.

在北美，輪胎進口水準與去年大致相同，而且由於乘用車和TBR OE尤其疲軟，我們的進口量僅略有下降。許多全球輪胎製造商都提出了這項呼籲。由於經濟不確定性，替代市場也有些疲軟。因此美洲深受南美洲的影響。

In Asia, we saw volumes down 8% with China being the biggest driver. Last year, demand stayed really strong through the Lunar New Year holiday as our customers produced very aggressively at that time for the export markets.

在亞洲，銷量下降了 8%，其中中國是最大原因。去年農曆新年假期期間，需求保持強勁，因為我們的客戶當時積極生產以應對出口市場。

This year, what we saw was a more normalized Lunar New Year holiday, where customers curtailed production given the mounting global trade uncertainty and as they work down inventories. So in Asia was really a difference in how China developed. And then in Europe, volumes were about flat year-over-year.

今年，我們看到農曆新年假期更加正常，由於全球貿易不確定性增加以及庫存減少，客戶削減了產量。因此，中國的發展方式在亞洲確實存在差異。而在歐洲，銷售量與去年同期基本持平。

As we told you last quarter, we picked up some volumes in the contract season as customers expressed a continued preference for local production. But sometimes new lanes that you pick up can be a little slower to ramp up as customers manage their inventories, but we'd expect these volumes to build as we move through the balance of the year.

正如我們上個季度告訴您的那樣，由於客戶表示繼續偏愛本地生產，我們在合約季節增加了一些產量。但有時，由於客戶管理庫存，您選擇的新航線的增長速度可能會慢一些，但我們預計，隨著我們在今年餘下的時間裡，這些數量會增加。

So that's a little bit of a walk of what's happening around the world. If you look at the RM volume bridge, we said we were going to be up low single digits in November based on market projections for demand at that time.

這就是對世界各地正在發生的事情的簡單回顧。如果你看一下 RM 交易量橋，我們說過，根據當時的市場需求預測，11 月的銷售額將成長個位數。

And then in December, when we commented on our guide, we were expecting flat because updates on the market view for tire production and auto were coming through, and they were being downgraded. And now, we sit here expecting down low single digits for the full year as we're starting to see cautiousness from customers. So that's the picture.

然後在 12 月，當我們對我們的指南進行評論時，我們預計會持平，因為有關輪胎生產和汽車的市場觀點的更新正在傳出，並且它們被下調了。現在，我們預計全年銷售額將下降個位數，因為我們開始看到客戶的謹慎態度。這就是圖片。

Now certainly, we were expecting a stronger second half as you pointed out. I think that's pretty consistent with what the tire makers are calling for. I believe Michelin on their call talked about a stronger second half, but it's unclear whether that will actually happen.

當然，正如您所指出的，我們期待下半年表現會更加強勁。我認為這與輪胎製造商的呼籲非常一致。我相信米其林在電話會議上談到了下半年會更加強勁，但目前尚不清楚這是否真的會發生。

And it's important to remember, our second half ends in September 30, whereas most of those companies calling for a stronger second half are on December year-end. So we may not see much of that if it materializes. But that's a bit of a picture on the volume front, John. Hopefully, that's helpful.

重要的是要記住，我們的下半年將於 9 月 30 日結束，而大多數要求下半年表現更強勁的公司都在 12 月底結束。因此，即使它成為現實，我們可能也看不到太多這樣的情況。但這只是從數量上來看的，約翰。希望這會有所幫助。

Did tire imports into the US accelerate ahead of the tariffs? And is there an air pocket here on the other side of the tariffs?

在關稅實施之前，美國的輪胎進口量是否加速成長？那麼，關稅的另一側是否存在氣泡呢？

Yeah. So the tire import levels into the US were about the same as they were a year ago. So no meaningful change year-over-year. They had elevated and remained at that level, but no significant change if you look at this period versus same period last year.

是的。因此，美國的輪胎進口量與一年前大致相同。因此與去年同期相比沒有顯著變化。它們已經上升並保持在該水平，但如果將這一時期與去年同期進行比較，則沒有顯著變化。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. In your Reinforcement Materials segment, how the volume split between North America and South America roughly?

非常感謝。在您的增強材料領域中，北美和南美的銷售量大致如何？

So South America would be a smaller market, Jeff, relative to North America, but declines were greater in South America. So you could look at it as a 60%-ish. North America, 40%%-ish. South America, somewhere in in around that split.

因此，傑夫，相對於北美來說，南美是一個較小的市場，但南美的下降幅度更大。因此你可以將其視為 60% 左右。北美，40%左右。南美洲，位於那個分裂時期的某個地方。

So then South American volumes were down close to 20% in the quarter.

因此本季南美的銷量下降了近 20%。

Quite sharply, you're probably in the zip code.

確切地說，你可能在郵遞區號中。

Is that a trend that you expect to continue over the next couple of quarters?

您預計這種趨勢會在接下來的幾季持續下去嗎？

We would expect it to hold at the level that it's at right now until we see how trade situation settles out. The South America market is being impacted by tire imports. And so, we'd expect that to hold. That's our current assumption on it, Jeff. I think that's reasonable given all of the uncertainty right now.

我們預計它將保持在目前的水平，直到我們看到貿易局勢如何穩定下來。南美市場正受到輪胎進口的影響。因此，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。這是我們目前的假設，傑夫。考慮到目前所有的不確定性，我認為這是合理的。

Can you talk about the underlying price dynamics in the Reinforcement Materials segment?

您能談談增強材料領域的潛在價格動態嗎？

The price dynamic is consistent with what we shared last quarter when we came through the contract negotiations. We shared that pricing was largely in the flat range through the contracts. And so, obviously we're operating under those contracts right now. So they're not changes during the year because most of the business in the West is contracted.

價格動態與我們上個季度進行合約談判時分享的價格動態一致。我們認為，透過合同，價格基本上處於平穩範圍內。所以，顯然我們現在正在按照這些合約開展業務。因此，這些都不會在年內發生變化，因為西方的大部分業務都已簽約。

In Asia Pacific, which is a more of a spot market, I would say, margins or pricing levels are holding fairly steady, but those are at a lower level than the margin levels in the West. There's always a little bit of cycling of price and margin depending on how raw materials move because those are spot market -- those are spot price markets. And so, you've got to adjust quickly if raw materials are moving around.

我認為，在亞太地區，這更像是現貨市場，利潤率或定價水準保持相當穩定，但低於西方的利潤率水準。由於這些都是現貨市場——都是現貨價格市場，所以價格和利潤總是會根據原材料的流動情況而出現一些循環。因此，如果原料發生變化，你必須迅速調整。

And prices in South America?

南美的價格如何？

Well, those are largely contracts. So consistent with my contract comments I just shared.

嗯，這些基本上都是合約。這與我剛才分享的合約評論一致。

And then lastly, what's going on with your energy center revenues? What was the change perhaps in the first half? What do you expect for the change in the second half in some revenue terms?

最後，您的能源中心收入狀況如何？上半場可能發生了什麼變化？您預計下半年某些收入方面會發生怎樣的變化？

Yeah. So most of the cogen impact and the companies and Reinforcement Materials where we have the energy centers, and that's where the biggest volumes, obviously, for carbon tire car are. For that segment, the energy center impact, the way that we think about it is net of utilities. So the energy center benefits net of utilities.

是的。因此，大部分熱電聯產的影響以及我們擁有能源中心的公司和增強材料，顯然，碳輪胎汽車的最大產量就在這裡。對於該部分，即能源中心的影響，我們考慮的方式是扣除公用事業的影響。因此，能源中心受益於公用事業網路。

And in Q2, it was really flat year over year. So no impact. We are expecting some second half impact as we see oil prices decline here given the economic uncertainty that's really all in the end tied back to tariffs, but as lower energy prices are expected to flow through again, we're holding the forward curve is our assumption.

而第二季度，與去年同期相比，表現基本持平。所以沒有影響。由於經濟不確定性最終都與關稅有關，我們預計下半年將出現一些影響，因為我們看到油價下跌，但隨著能源價格預計將再次走低，我們假設未來曲線保持不變。

So we would expect some back half impact, probably in the mid single digit millions impact headwind in the in the second half. But first, in this quarter, it was not really a part of the story.

因此，我們預計下半年將出現一定影響，可能在數千萬左右的逆風影響。但首先，在本季度，這並不是故事的真正一部分。

Josh Specter, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

Yeah. Hi. Good morning. I wanted to ask on Performance Chemicals. You made the comments around seasonal increases offset by China destocking. There's been a lot of mixed signals in our coverage around what we're seeing in terms of seasonal improvements.

是的。你好。早安.我想詢問有關性能化學品的問題。您評論說季節性增長被中國去庫存所抵消。就季節性改善而言，我們的報告中出現了許多混合訊號。

So I wanted to focus on that and just ask where you see a normal seasonal trend playing out either market or region and where are your assumptions around a more muted trend sequentially? Thanks.

所以我想集中討論這一點，只是想問一下，您認為正常的季節性趨勢在哪個市場或地區出現，以及您對連續更為溫和的趨勢的假設是什麼？謝謝。

Yeah. Hi, Josh. So we have certain applications that are more focused around the spring weather. So you could call them ag farming related type applications. Also, you'll see on the coating side of the house, you'll see the decorative coatings market start to pick up in the spring time here. That's a normal seasonal housing trend.

是的。你好，喬希。因此，我們有一些應用程式更側重於春季天氣。因此你可以稱它們為農業相關類型的應用程式。此外，您還會看到，在房屋的塗料方面，裝飾塗料市場在春季開始回升。這是正常的季節性住房趨勢。

And so, we see those markets responding as they normally do. I would not say there's any real change in those. But that's basically the seasonal dynamic that you see. I guess the other one, I might call it a seasonal dynamic is usually this quarter is stronger in China as they come off the March quarter, which has the Chinese New Year holiday, and it's normally you see this quarter being quite a strong quarter for Performance Chemicals.

因此，我們看到這些市場做出了正常的反應。我不認為這些會有什麼真正的改變。但這基本上就是您所看到的季節性動態。我想另一個，我可能稱之為季節性動態，通常這個季度在中國會更強勁，因為他們剛結束三月份的季度，也就是農曆新年假期，通常你會看到這個季度對於高性能化學品來說是一個相當強勁的季度。

I think the one difference we're seeing right now is just general uncertainty related to tariff negotiations, where I wouldn't say it's changing any of these seasonal patterns, but just in general, customers are exhibiting a little more of a cautious posture on things and not wanting to get out over their skis on inventory levels and ordering what they know they have ordered for themselves rather than building to stock.

我認為我們現在看到的一個不同之處只是與關稅談判有關的普遍不確定性，我不會說它改變了任何季節性模式，但總的來說，客戶對事物表現出更加謹慎的態度，不想超出庫存水平，並且訂購他們知道自己已經訂購的東西，而不是建立庫存。

And I think that general trend, while we view it as a temporary phenomenon, it is something that we are beginning to see in the early parts of this quarter, and we'd expect -- our expectation is that will continue at least through the quarter here until we see how things settle out on the trade tariff negotiation front.

我認為，儘管我們認為這種總體趨勢只是暫時現象，但這是我們在本季初開始看到的趨勢，我們預計這種趨勢至少會持續整個季度，直到我們看到貿易關稅談判方面的情況如何。

Thanks. That's helpful. I wanted to just ask on the cost savings, just the cadence, if you can give some color there. So the $30 million, how does that layer in over the next couple of quarters? I guess, does that set a higher run rate number when we think about a full year? And is any of that temporary or is all that permanent? Thank you.

謝謝。這很有幫助。我只是想問一下成本節約的情況，只是節奏，你是否可以提供一些細節。那麼這 3000 萬美元在接下來的幾個季度中將如何分配呢？我想，當我們考慮全年時，這是否會設定更高的運行率數字？這些都是暫時的還是都是永久的？謝謝。

Hi, Josh. I'll address that. So I think the cost savings in nature are across the fixed cost and procurement initiatives that we have underway. I would say there are a variety. Some might call belt tightening. Some might be more temporary, like things like travel and some are related to more structural. I'd say restructuring actions that would continue our procurement efforts that would continue.

你好，喬希。我會解決這個問題。因此，我認為本質上的成本節約涉及我們正在進行的固定成本和採購計劃。我想說的是，有很多種。有些人可能會稱之為勒緊褲腰帶。有些可能是暫時的，例如旅行之類的事情，有些則與結構有關。我想說重組行動將會繼續我們的採購工作。

So I'd say it's a mix within there. If you think about the $30 million we said in the first half, we recognize probably about one-third of that, most of it in Q2. And then, so we'd expect about two-third in the second half of the year.

所以我認為這是一個混合體。如果您想想我們上半年所說的 3000 萬美元，我們大概會確認其中的三分之一，其中大部分是在第二季度。然後，我們預計下半年將達到約三分之二。

Okay. So that doesn't really build sequentially then if you're recognizing about $10 million now, that's kind of $10 million a quarter, is that right or is that wrong?

好的。所以這並不是真正按順序構建的，如果你現在確認了大約 1000 萬美元，那就是每季 1000 萬美元，這是對還是錯？

That's right. It's more readable if you think quarter to quarter from Q2.

這是正確的。如果從第二季開始逐季思考，會更容易閱讀。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

Good morning. This is Dan Rizzo on for Lawrence. I was just wondering with all the volatility and the tariffs, what industry capital utilization is now as opposed to what it was, say, last quarter in last year.

早安.丹·里佐 (Dan Rizzo) 代替勞倫斯。我只是想知道，在所有這些波動和關稅的情況下，與去年上個季度相比，現在的產業資本利用率如何。

Hi, Dan. Sorry, there was a bit of difficulty on the transition there with the call, but I think you're asking about capacity utilizations. Is that it?

你好，丹。抱歉，通話過程中出現了一些困難，但我認為您問的是產能利用率。就這樣嗎？

That's correct. Yes.

沒錯。是的。

Yeah. So when we look at capacity utilization, it of course depends by business. I think if you look at Reinforcement Materials, I would say it's pretty consistent with where things were last quarter, but it varies a bit by region. I think in North America, utilization are probably in the 80s, low-80s sort of a range for the industry.

是的。因此，當我們考慮產能利用率時，它當然取決於業務。我認為，如果你看一下增強材料，我會說它與上一季的情況非常一致，但因地區而異。我認為在北美，該行業的利用率可能在 80 到 80 出頭的範圍內。

In Europe, it would be higher than that, I would say upper 80s range, because in Europe, you're net short of capacity. So they rely on imports and there's a strong preference for regional supplies. So the utilizations are as would be expected higher there.

在歐洲，這個數字會更高，我認為在 80 年代後期，因為在歐洲，產能淨短缺。因此他們依賴進口，並且強烈偏好本地供應。因此，那裡的利用率正如預期的那樣較高。

And then in Asia Pacific, what we see is that we're running generally our plants at a pretty high level. So normally in China, we're in the 90%-ish range. As we look forward, given the uncertainty around tariffs and people operating a bit more cautiously, level of utilization will probably pull down a little bit there. But for us, that's how utilizations sit at this point.

在亞太地區，我們看到我們的工廠整體運作水準相當高。在中國，我們的覆蓋率通常處於 90% 左右。展望未來，考慮到關稅的不確定性以及人們的經營更加謹慎，利用率可能會略有下降。但對我們來說，目前的利用率就是這樣的。

And again, our view here is people are just operating a bit cautiously in the short term here and taking some temporary actions to adjust inventories and just be cautious generally. So we don't at this point see it as a structural decline and we're not. We're not calling for a recession, that's not what's assumed in our guide here. It's really a temporary cautious inventory pullback.

再說一次，我們的觀點是，人們只是在短期內謹慎行事，採取一些臨時措施來調整庫存，總體上保持謹慎。因此，我們目前並不認為這是結構性衰退，事實也確實如此。我們並不是呼籲經濟衰退，這不是我們的指南所假設的。這實際上是一次暫時的謹慎庫存回調。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then you mentioned CapEx going down to $250 million to $275 million, but I think you said there's still a growth component of that. I was wondering how much of that is growth CapEx and how much is maintenance at this point.

好的。這非常有幫助。然後您提到資本支出將下降到 2.5 億美元到 2.75 億美元，但我認為您說其中仍有成長成分。我想知道其中有多少是成長資本支出，有多少是維護支出。

Yeah. So what we're doing on the CapEx front as we've been consistently talking about is making sure that we're trying to pace our growth investments with actual market demand. And so, the tear back there on CapEx is really around the timing of growth investments and just trying to adjust those as we're seeing market demand pick up. In terms of the total CapEx --

是的。因此，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我們在資本支出方面所做的就是確保我們嘗試根據實際市場需求調整成長投資。因此，資本支出的下降實際上與成長投資的時機有關，隨著市場需求回升，我們試圖調整這些投資。就總資本支出而言--

Yeah. I think it is split, Dan. So probably about $100 million is growth related. I'd say the largest project there is the completion of our new capacity in Indonesia for the Reinforcement Materials segment.

是的。我認為它是分裂的，丹。因此大概有 1 億美元與成長有關。我想說，那裡最大的項目是我們在印尼的增強材料部門的新產能的完成。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to Sean Keohane for closing remarks.

謝謝。我目前沒有其他問題。我想請肖恩·基歐漢 (Sean Keohane) 作最後發言。

Great. Thank you very much for joining us today and for your continued support of Cabot, and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a great day.

偉大的。非常感謝您今天的參與以及您對卡博特的持續支持，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。