Cabot Corp (CBT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 Cabot earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2024 年第四季卡博特收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. Now I will pass the call over to the Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations, Steve Delahunt. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我將把電話轉給副​​總裁、財務主管和投資者關係史蒂夫·德拉亨特 (Steve Delahunt)。請繼續。

Thanks, Carmen, and good morning. I would like to welcome you to the Cabot Corporation earnings teleconference. With me today are Sean Keohane, CEO and President; and Erica McLaughlin, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝，卡門，早安。歡迎您參加卡博特公司的財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有執行長兼總裁 Sean Keohane；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Erica McLaughlin。

Last night, we released results for our fourth quarter fiscal year 2024, copies of which are posted in the Investor Relations section of our website. The slide deck that accompanies this call is also available on the Investor Relations portion of our website and will be available in conjunction with the replay of the call.

昨晚，我們發布了 2024 財年第四季的業績，其副本發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分。本次電話會議附帶的幻燈片也可在我們網站的投資者關係部分獲取，並將與電話會議重播一起提供。

During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements about our expected future operational and financial performance. Each forward-looking statement is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such statements.

在本次電話會議期間，我們將就我們預期的未來營運和財務表現做出前瞻性聲明。每項前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中預測的結果有重大差異。

Additional information regarding these factors appears under the heading forward-looking statements in the press release we issued last night and in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2023, and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC, all of which are also available on the company's website.

有關這些因素的更多資​​訊出現在我們昨晚發布的新聞稿、截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的財年 10-K 表格年度報告以及我們隨後向 SEC 提交的文件中的前瞻性聲明標題下。所有這些也可以在該公司的網站上找到。

In order to provide greater transparency regarding our operating performance, we refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that involve adjustments to GAAP results. Any non-GAAP financial measures presented should not be considered to be an alternative to financial measures required by GAAP.

為了提高我們經營績效的透明度，我們參考了某些涉及對 GAAP 結果進行調整的非 GAAP 財務指標。所提出的任何非 GAAP 財務指標不應被視為 GAAP 要求的財務指標的替代方案。

Any non-GAAP financial measures referenced on this call are reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in the table at the end of our earnings release issued last night and available in the Investors section of our website.

本次電話會議中引用的任何非公認會計原則財務指標均與我們昨晚發布的收益報告末尾的表格中最直接可比較的公認會計原則財務指標進行了調整，並可在我們網站的投資者部分找到。

Also, as we typically do each year, I'd like to remind you that over the next several weeks, in connection with the vesting of restricted stock awards issued under our long-term incentive equity program, officers of the company will be selling shares to pay tax and other obligations related to their rewards.

此外，正如我們每年通常所做的那樣，我想提醒您，在接下來的幾週內，根據我們的長期激勵股權計劃發放的限制性股票獎勵的歸屬，公司高管將出售股票繳納與其獎勵相關的稅金和其他義務。

I will now turn the call over to Sean, who will discuss our success against our 2021 Investor Day objectives, followed by our fiscal 2024 highlights, including our cash flow results and capital allocation for the year and finally, our 2024 sustainability highlights. Erica will review the corporate financial details and business segment results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year.

我現在將把電話轉給Sean，他將討論我們在2021 年投資者日目標方面取得的成功，然後是我們2024 年財政年度的亮點，包括我們今年的現金流結果和資本配置，最後是我們2024年可持續發展的亮點。艾莉卡將審查第四季和財年的公司財務細節和業務部門業績。

Following this, Sean will provide a 2025 outlook and some closing comments and open the floor to questions. Sean?

隨後，Sean 將提供 2025 年展望和一些總結評論，並歡迎提問。肖恩？

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our call today.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。早安，女士們先生們，歡迎今天致電我們。

Fiscal year 2024 was one marked by tremendous accomplishments for our company. We concluded our 2021 Investor Day three-year goal period, having achieved an adjusted earnings per share growth CAGR of 12%, which represents the top end of our target range of 8% to 12%. We also generated $1.2 billion of cumulative discretionary free cash flow over that three-year period, a very strong result compared to our Investor Day goal of greater than $1 billion.

2024 財年是我們公司取得巨大成就的一年。我們結束了 2021 年投資者日三年目標期，調整後每股盈餘複合年增長率達到 12%，這是我們 8% 至 12% 目標範圍的上限。在那三年期間，我們還產生了 12 億美元的累計可自由支配自由現金流，與我們超過 10 億美元的投資者日目標相比，這是一個非常強勁的結果。

During our Investor Day in 2021, we launched our Creating for Tomorrow strategy. This strategy seeks to leverage our global leadership, innovation capabilities, and commitment to operational excellence to drive strong growth of earnings and cash flow.

在 2021 年投資者日期間，我們推出了「創造明天」策略。該策略旨在利用我們的全球領導力、創新能力和對卓越營運的承諾來推動收益和現金流的強勁成長。

When we set our three-year targets in December of 2021, we made certain demand and market assumptions based on the environment at that time. While many of those key assumptions turned into headwinds since 2021, particularly the end market growth rates and foreign exchange rates, it hasn't impacted our focus on achieving our corporate objectives.

我們在2021年12月訂定三年目標時，根據當時的環境做了一定的需求和市場假設。儘管自 2021 年以來，許多關鍵假設都變成了阻力，特別是終端市場成長率和外匯匯率，但這並沒有影響我們對實現企業目標的關注。

I'm immensely proud of the entire Cabot team, resilience and agility they demonstrated in navigating a turbulent global economic environment these past three years, always maintaining a focus on supporting our customers and delivering on our commitments.

我為整個卡博特團隊感到非常自豪，他們在過去三年中在動蕩的全球經濟環境中表現出了韌性和敏捷性，始終專注於支持我們的客戶並兌現我們的承諾。

In fiscal year 2024, we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.06, an increase of 31% year over year and total segment EBIT of $701 million, an increase of 15% year over year. In our business segments, reinforcement materials EBIT increased 11% year over year to $537 million, driven by higher volumes and improved pricing and product mix in our 2023 and 2024 customer agreements.

2024 財年，我們的調整後每股收益為 7.06 美元，年增 31%，分部息稅前利潤總額為 7.01 億美元，較去年同期成長 15%。在我們的業務部門中，受 2023 年和 2024 年客戶協議中銷量增加以及定價和產品組合改善的推動，加固材料息稅前利潤同比增長 11%，達到 5.37 億美元。

Performance chemicals segment EBIT increased 31% year over year to $164 million as we saw our volumes reconnect with underlying demand in the second half of the fiscal year and a more normalized product mix that drove improved margins.

高性能化學品部門的息稅前利潤年增31%，達到1.64 億美元，因為我們看到我們的銷售在本財年下半年與潛在需求重新掛鉤，並且產品組合更加標準化，從而推動了利潤率的提高。

The Cabot portfolio has robust cash flow characteristics and our performance in fiscal 2024 marked a continuation of those fundamentals. In the fiscal year, we generated strong operating cash flow of $692 million and discretionary free cash flow of $479 million.

卡博特投資組合具有強勁的現金流特徵，我們 2024 財年的表現標誌著這些基本面的延續。在本財年，我們產生了 6.92 億美元的強勁營運現金流和 4.79 億美元的可自由支配自由現金流。

Our cash generation power is the source of our shareholder value creation strategy. With these strong cash flows, we seek to allocate capital inside a balanced framework focused on three priorities: first, ensuring our asset base is well maintained to provide a reliable and sustainable offering to our customers; second, underwriting high confidence growth projects to deliver long-term earnings growth; and third, returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

我們的現金產生能力是我們股東價值創造策略的來源。憑藉這些強勁的現金流，我們尋求在一個平衡的框架內分配資本，重點關註三個優先事項：首先，確保我們的資產基礎得到良好維護，以便為客戶提供可靠和可持續的產品；其次，承保高信心成長項目以實現長期獲利成長；第三，透過股利和股票回購向股東返還資本。

The strength of our cash flow allows us to execute against these priorities while maintaining our strong investment-grade balance sheet. In fiscal year 2024, we paid $93 million in dividends, including an 8% increase announced last May, reflecting our confidence in the long-term cash flow outlook for our company.

我們強大的現金流使我們能夠執行這些優先事項，同時保持強勁的投資等級資產負債表。 2024財年，我們支付了9,300萬美元的股息，其中去年5月宣布的股息成長了8%，反映了我們對公司長期現金流前景的信心。

We have maintained a continuous and growing dividend since 1968, and we would expect to continue raising the dividend over time as our earnings grow. We also repurchased $172 million of shares in fiscal year 2024, which combined with dividends totaled $265 million of capital returned to shareholders, representing approximately 55% of discretionary free cash flow.

自 1968 年以來，我們一直保持持續成長的股息，隨著我們獲利的成長，我們預計將繼續提高股息。我們也在 2024 財年回購了 1.72 億美元的股票，加上股息，返還給股東的資本總額為 2.65 億美元，約佔可自由支配現金流的 55%。

Going forward, we feel very good about our cash generation power, balance sheet flexibility, and future growth investment opportunities to continue driving top-tier shareholder returns.

展望未來，我們對我們的現金產生能力、資產負債表靈活性以及未來成長投資機會感到非常滿意，以繼續推動頂級股東回報。

Now turning to sustainability. Fiscal year 2024 has been a dynamic year of progress, marked by several key sustainability achievements. As we integrate sustainability into our Creating for Tomorrow strategy, we think about it in terms of being a responsible operator and through the lens of enabling applications for our customers.

現在轉向永續性。 2024 財年是充滿活力的進步之年，取得了多項關鍵的永續發展成就。當我們將永續發展融入「創造明天」策略時，我們從成為負責任的營運商並透過為客戶提供應用程式的角度來思考它。

Ultimately, our investments in this space must generate returns because they drive efficiency in our operations through circularity are valued by our customers and their downstream consumers or are enabling new vectors of growth.

最終，我們在這一領域的投資必須產生回報，因為它們透過循環性來提高我們的營運效率，受到我們的客戶及其下游消費者的重視，或正在實現新的成長載體。

In June, we published our 2024 sustainability report, highlighting our recent performance and advancements toward our 2025 sustainability goals as well as our vision for enabling a more sustainable future.

6 月，我們發布了 2024 年永續發展報告，重點介紹了我們最近的績效和實現 2025 年永續發展目標的進展，以及我們實現更永續的未來的願景。

At that time, we had achieved 9 of our 14 2025 sustainability goals ahead of schedule while we continue to progress to target on the remaining goals. Among the key milestones, we achieved our goal of exporting 200% of the energy that we import, exemplifying our commitment to circularity by leveraging the waste energy in our manufacturing process to produce cogeneration power, which is CO2-free and provides a valuable profit stream.

當時，我們已經提前實現了 14 個 2025 年永續發展目標中的 9 個，同時我們還在繼續努力實現其餘目標。在這些關鍵里程碑中，我們實現了進口能源200% 出口的目標，透過利用製造過程中的廢棄能源來生產熱電聯產電力，體現了我們對循環利用的承諾，這種電力不產生二氧化碳，並提供了寶貴的利潤流。

Our customers continue to seek more circular and sustainable products as they drive their growth strategies, and this represents a long-term innovation opportunity for Cabot. In fiscal year 2024, we introduced several new products made with sustainable materials, including our new universal circular black masterbatches designed to deliver reliable performance, quality, and consistency across multiple applications. We also launched PROPEL E8 engineered reinforcing Carbon Black, promoting enhanced efficiency and increased durability for EV and high-performance tire formulations.

我們的客戶在推動其成長策略時不斷尋求更循環和可持續的產品，這對卡博特來說是一個長期創新機會。在 2024 財年，我們推出了多種採用永續材料製成的新產品，包括我們的新型通用圓形黑色母粒，旨在在多種應用中提供可靠的性能、品質和一致性。我們也推出了 PROPEL E8 工程增強炭黑，可提高電動車和高性能輪胎配方的效率和耐用性。

Our leadership in sustainability continues to be recognized externally. We again achieved a platinum rating from EcoVadis, marking the fourth consecutive year and placing us in the top 1% of the basic chemical sector. Additionally, our E2C product earned the Tire Technology International 2024 Award for innovation and excellence, highlighting our contributions to a more sustainable tire development.

我們在永續發展方面的領導地位繼續得到外部認可。我們再次獲得 EcoVadis 白金評級，這是連續第四年，使我們躋身基礎化學品行業前 1% 之列。此外，我們的 E2C 產品因其創新和卓越而榮獲 2024 年國際輪胎技術獎，突顯了我們對更永續輪胎開發的貢獻。

And finally, we are proud to have been selected by the US Department of Energy for a grant to support the build-out of the domestic battery chemistry supply chain. I'd like to take a few minutes now to elaborate on this DoE grant selection.

最後，我們很榮幸獲得美國能源部的資助，以支持國內電池化學供應鏈的建設。我現在想花幾分鐘時間詳細說明能源部的撥款選擇。

In September, Cabot was selected for a $50 million grant by the US Department of Energy as part of the bipartisan infrastructure law. We are now in negotiations to finalize the terms of that award. The grant will be used to develop a new US-based manufacturing facility to produce battery-grade carbon nanotubes and conductive additive dispersions at commercial scale.

9 月，作為兩黨基礎設施法案的一部分，美國能源部選擇卡博特獲得 5000 萬美元的撥款。我們現在正在談判以最終確定該獎項的條款。這筆補助將用於開發位於美國的新製造工廠，以商業規模生產電池級碳奈米管和導電添加劑分散體。

With our broad portfolio of conductive additives for the battery industry and our established relationships with the leading battery manufacturers globally, we are well positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunity as Gigafactories are constructed here in North America.

憑藉我們為電池行業提供的廣泛的導電添加劑產品組合以及與全球領先電池製造商建立的關係，我們處於有利位置，可以利用北美超級工廠建設帶來的成長機會。

This investment will help us scale the production of domestic capacity and accelerate the US battery chemistry value chain. We continue to believe that battery materials will be an important growth driver to Cabot's earnings over time as the production of batteries bifurcates into a western market and a China market. We look forward to working closely with the Department of Energy and our stakeholders to ensure the success of this important project.

這項投資將幫助我們擴大國內產能並加速美國電池化學價值鏈的發展。我們仍然相信，隨著電池生產分為西方市場和中國市場，隨著時間的推移，電池材料將成為卡博特獲利的重要成長動力。我們期待與能源部和利益相關者密切合作，以確保這項重要項目的成功。

Overall, we had a very strong year in 2024 and are well positioned for the future. I'll now turn the call over to Erica to discuss the financial and performance results of the quarter in more detail. Erica?

總體而言，我們在 2024 年度過了非常強勁的一年，並為未來做好了準備。我現在將把電話轉給埃麗卡，更詳細地討論本季的財務和業績結果。艾麗卡？

Thanks, Sean.

謝謝，肖恩。

Adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter was $1.80. This performance was 9% above the same quarter last year, driven by higher EBIT in the performance chemicals segment and a benefit from a lower tax rate, partially offset by lower EBIT in our reinforcement materials segment.

第四季調整後每股收益為 1.80 美元。這一業績比去年同期增長了9%，這得益於高性能化學品業務部門較高的息稅前利潤以及較低稅率的推動，但部分被我們增強材料業務部門較低的息稅前利潤所抵消。

Cash flow from operations was strong at $204 million in the quarter, which included a working capital decrease of $39 million. Discretionary free cash flow was $105 million in the quarter. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $223 million and our liquidity position remains strong at approximately $1.4 billion.

本季營運現金流強勁，達 2.04 億美元，其中營運資本減少 3,900 萬美元。本季可自由支配的自由現金流為 1.05 億美元。本季末，我們的現金餘額為 2.23 億美元，流動性狀況依然強勁，約 14 億美元。

Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 were $92 million. Additional uses of cash during the fourth quarter were $24 million for dividends and $66 million for share repurchases. Our debt balance was $1.1 billion, and our net debt to EBITDA remained at 1.2 times.

2024財年第四季的資本支出為9,200萬美元。第四季額外使用的現金包括 2,400 萬美元用於股利和 6,600 萬美元用於股票回購。我們的債務餘額為 11 億美元，淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率維持在 1.2 倍。

The operating tax rate for fiscal year 2024 was 26% as compared to 28% in fiscal 2023. The lower tax rate was driven by a more favorable geographic mix of earnings, impacts related to the devaluation in Argentina, and differences in withholding taxes on foreign earnings.

2024 財年的營業稅率為 26%，而 2023 財年為 28%。

We anticipate our operating tax rate for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of 27% to 29%. The expected increase year over year is driven by our outlook related to Argentina and the new OECD global minimum tax implementation, which increases our tax rate in certain lower tax jurisdictions.

我們預計 2025 財年的營業稅率將在 27% 至 29% 之間。預計同比增長是由我們對阿根廷的展望以及新的經合組織全球最低稅實施推動的，該實施提高了我們在某些​​低稅收管轄區的稅率。

Now moving to reinforcement materials. EBIT decreased by $11 million in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. The decrease was primarily due to lower volumes, a less favorable geographic mix and higher costs, partially offset by higher pricing and improved product mix in our 2024 calendar year customer agreements. The higher costs were driven by the timing of maintenance and other third-party spend as well as higher expense related to incentive compensation as compared to the prior year.

現在轉向加固材料。第四季息稅前利潤與去年同期相比減少了 1,100 萬美元。下降的主要原因是銷售減少、地理組合不利以及成本上升，但部分被我們 2024 日曆年客戶協議中更高的定價和改進的產品組合所抵消。與前一年相比，成本增加的原因是維護時間和其他第三方支出以及與激勵補償相關的費用增加。

Globally, volumes were down 1% year over year due to a 7%-decline in volumes in the Americas, partially offset by 4% growth in Asia Pacific and 3% growth in Europe. Volumes in the Americas were negatively impacted by the lingering effects of the weather-related events in Mexico and lower production levels at our tire customers in the Americas given the higher level of tire imports from Asia into the region.

全球範圍內，由於美洲銷量下降 7%，銷量年減 1%，但部分被亞太地區 4% 的成長和歐洲 3% 的成長所抵消。由於墨西哥天氣相關事件的持續影響，以及由於從亞洲進口到該地區的輪胎數量增加，美洲輪胎客戶的產量下降，對美洲的銷售產生了負面影響。

In the third quarter, we declared force majeure at our plant in Altamira, Mexico, given the drought in the country, which caused customers to shift orders to other carbon black suppliers. This demand shift continued longer than expected and impacted results in the fourth quarter. While this impact was longer than we expected, we believe that customers have returned to their normal purchasing patterns, which is supported by our stronger regional volumes in October.

第三季度，由於墨西哥發生乾旱，我們宣布墨西哥阿爾塔米拉工廠遭遇不可抗力，導致客戶將訂單轉移給其他炭黑供應商。這種需求轉變持續的時間比預期長，並影響了第四季的業績。雖然這種影響比我們預期的要長，但我們相信客戶已經恢復了正常的購買模式，這得益於我們 10 月強勁的區域銷售。

Looking to the first quarter of fiscal 2025, we expect a sequential increase in EBIT, primarily due to $10 million of lower costs. We expect quarterly sequential volumes to be relatively consistent as the increase in volumes in Mexico is expected to be largely offset by normal calendar year-end seasonal patterns.

展望 2025 財年第一季度，我們預計 EBIT 將環比成長，這主要是由於成本降低了 1000 萬美元。我們預計季度連續銷售將相對穩定，因為墨西哥的銷售成長預計將在很大程度上被正常的日曆年底季節性模式所抵消。

Now turning to performance chemicals. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, EBIT for the segment increased by $8 million as compared to the same period in the prior year. The increase in the fourth quarter was due to higher volumes and a more favorable product mix, partially offset by higher costs.

現在轉向高性能化學品。 2024 財年第四季度，該部門的息稅前利潤與去年同期相比增加了 800 萬美元。第四季的成長是由於銷售增加和產品組合更有利，但部分被成本上漲所抵消。

Volumes were higher by 2% in the quarter compared to the same period in the prior year as we saw volumes reconnect to underlying demand drivers as compared to the destocking behavior in the prior year. Higher margins for the quarter were driven by improved product mix as the higher volumes were in higher-margin applications, including electronics and automotive applications.

與去年同期相比，本季的銷售量增加了 2%，因為與去年的去庫存行為相比，我們看到銷售量重新與潛在需求驅動因素相關。本季利潤率上升的原因是產品組合的改善，因為較高利潤的應用（包括電子和汽車應用）銷售增加。

Higher costs were largely due to increased level of plant maintenance, higher incentive compensation, and the unfavorable effect of inventory reductions.

成本上升主要是由於工廠維護水準的提高、激勵性薪酬的提高以及庫存減少的不利影響。

Looking ahead to the first quarter of fiscal 2025, we expect EBIT to remain relatively consistent with the fourth quarter. We expect strong demand in Asia volumes to be largely offset by seasonally lower volumes in the Americas and Europe.

展望2025財年第一季度，我們預期息稅前利潤將與第四季保持相對一致。我們預計亞洲銷售的強勁需求將在很大程度上被美洲和歐洲季節性銷售下降所抵消。

I will now turn it back to Sean to discuss our 2025 outlook. Sean?

現在我將轉回 Sean 討論我們 2025 年的展望。肖恩？

Thanks, Erica. For the past nine years, this management team has driven a consistent strategy focused on strengthening our leading portfolio of global businesses, investing for advantaged growth in applications where we have a right to win, and deploying our strong cash flow power within a balanced capital allocation framework with a robust level of cash returned to shareholders.

謝謝，艾麗卡。在過去的九年裡，該管理團隊推動了一致的策略，重點是加強我們領先的全球業務組合，投資於我們有權獲勝的應用程式的優勢增長，並在平衡的資本配置中部署我們強大的現金流能力框架，向股東返還大量現金。

Delivering on our commitments is paramount to this management team, and we have accomplished that despite a turbulent global environment. For the years 2016 through 2024, we have grown adjusted EPS at a CAGR of 12%, and have increased our level of discretionary free cash flow from approximately $250 million to over $450 million in fiscal 2024.

兌現我們的承諾對於這個管理團隊來說至關重要，儘管全球環境動盪，我們還是實現了這一目標。 2016 年至 2024 年，我們調整後每股盈餘的複合年增長率為 12%，並將可自由支配的自由現金流水準從約 2.5 億美元增加到 2024 財年的超過 4.5 億美元。

As we look forward, we believe our global scale, broad geographic footprint, innovation capabilities, and foundation of operational excellence will drive continued growth of earnings and cash flow. Overall, we expect fiscal year 2025 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.40 to $7.80, which represents growth of 5% to 10% from our 2024 results. We expect continued earnings growth in reinforcement materials and the steady recovery in performance chemicals.

展望未來，我們相信我們的全球規模、廣泛的地理足跡、創新能力和卓越營運的基礎將推動收益和現金流的持續成長。整體而言，我們預計 2025 財年調整後每股盈餘將在 7.40 美元至 7.80 美元之間，較 2024 年業績成長 5% 至 10%。我們預計增強材料的獲利將持續成長，而高性能化學品的獲利將穩定復甦。

In reinforcement materials, we expect global volume growth and higher unit margins. The segment is also expected to have higher costs from the startup of our final air pollution control project in the US and the commissioning of our new unit in Indonesia.

在增強材料方面，我們預期全球銷售將成長，單位利潤率將更高。由於我們在美國的最終空氣污染控制項目的啟動以及我們在印尼的新裝置的調試，預計該部門的成本也會更高。

In performance chemicals, we expect the EBIT run rate we experienced in the second half of fiscal 2024 to continue into fiscal 2025 with year-over-year volume growth in the mid-single digits and steady unit margins.

在高性能化學品方面，我們預計 2024 財年下半年的息稅前利潤運行率將持續到 2025 財年，銷售量將年增為中個位數，單位利潤率穩定。

Foreign exchange rates, interest rates, and energy prices can all impact positioning in the range. The midpoint of our range assumes relatively consistent FX rates and interest rates moving in line with current market expectations, and we are assuming the forward curve for oil.

外匯、利率和能源價格都會影響該區間的定位。我們範圍的中點假設外匯匯率和利率與當前市場預期相對一致，並且我們假設石油的遠期曲線。

Overall, for the company, we would anticipate lower unallocated corporate costs and lower interest expense, which is expected to be offset by lower general unallocated income, driven by lower investment income mainly related to the cash we held in Argentina in the first half of 2024.

總體而言，對於該公司而言，我們預計未分配的企業成本和利息支出都會下降，預計這將被一般未分配收入的下降所抵消，而投資收入的下降主要與我們在2024 年上半年在阿根廷持有的現金有關。

We also have assumed the tax rate to be in the range of 27% to 29%. So at the midpoint, it is 2 points higher than fiscal year 2024. We expect to generate strong cash flow from operations and discretionary free cash flow driven by robust EBITDA to support strategic growth investments and continued return of capital to shareholders.

我們也假設稅率在 27% 至 29% 範圍內。因此，從中期來看，它比2024 財年高出2 個百分點。持續向股東回報資本。

I believe 2025 will be another successful year for Cabot as we pursue advantaged long-term growth with disciplined capital allocation to drive superior shareholder returns.

我相信 2025 年對卡博特來說將是另一個成功的一年，因為我們透過嚴格的資本配置追求有利的長期成長，以推動卓越的股東回報。

Thank you very much for participating in the call today, and I hope you will all join us on December 4 for our Investor Day. At that session, we will outline the next phase of strategy development for the company, key growth initiatives, as well as our next set of long-term financial targets.

非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議，希望您能在 12 月 4 日參加我們的投資者日。在那次會議上，我們將概述公司下一階段的策略發展、關鍵成長舉措以及我們的下一組長期財務目標。

I'll now turn the call back over for a question-and-answer session.

我現在將把電話轉回進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) John Roberts, Mizuho.

（操作員說明）John Roberts，Mizuho。

All right. Great. Thank you. The silica business seems like a stronger area in performance chemicals. I assume that's what you were talking about in terms of the mix improvement. Can you talk about if you're seeing any slowdown in semiconductor applications or the automotive applications, those are two markets that both seem to be decelerating right now?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。二氧化矽業務似乎是高性能化學品中更強大的領域。我想這就是您所說的混合改進。您能否談談您是否看到半導體應用或汽車應用出現任何放緩，這兩個市場目前似乎都在減速？

Yeah, good morning, John. As we had commented last quarter, we definitely saw a return to more normalized volumes and mix in the segment in the back half of 2024. And certainly, a piece of that was improvement in the semiconductor application. So we assume silica goes into CMP as you point out.

是的，早上好，約翰。正如我們上季度評論的那樣，我們肯定會看到 2024 年下半年該領域的銷量和組合將回歸更加正常化的狀態。因此，正如您所指出的，我們假設二氧化矽會進入 CMP。

And so, we saw a continuation of that certainly into Q4. And I would say it's running at fairly normal rates right now. I don't think we're seeing any particular signs of ration. I would say it sort of returned back to what we would think would be normalized levels compared to what we saw in early '24 and most of '23, where it was very, very weak.

因此，我們看到這種情況肯定會延續到第四季。我想說它現在的運行速度相當正常。我認為我們沒有看到任何特別的配給跡象。我想說的是，與我們在 24 年初和 23 年大部分時間看到的情況相比，它有點回到了我們認為的正常化水平，當時它非常非常弱。

I think on the automotive side, the outlook for calendar year 2025 is for auto production to grow. I think a touch lower than 2% is sort of the latest outlook. That is a downward revision. I think from where IHS was before, they were maybe 1 point higher than that, but that's the expectation that we would be building around at this point as it relates to automotive.

我認為在汽車方面，2025 年的前景是汽車產量成長。我認為低於 2% 是最新的展望。這是向下修正。我認為從 IHS 之前的情況來看，他們可能比這個高 1 個百分點，但這是我們在這一點上圍繞汽車進行建設的期望。

And then what's the revenue capacity of the EV battery materials plant that you're targeting for the US?

那你們針對美國的電動車電池材料工廠的營收能力是多少？

So the plant is targeted to start up in 2028. Of course, we're in final stages right now of negotiations with the Department of Energy, but the high-level timeline is something in that range. And we'd be producing both carbon nanotubes as well as conductive additive dispersion there.

因此，該工廠的目標是在 2028 年啟動。我們將在那裡生產碳奈米管以及導電添加劑分散體。

Our expectation on that project is that it would generate IRRs in the sort of 20%-ish range, something in that range and the total capital for that is around $180 million, of which 50-ish -- $50 million would be covered by this grant. So that's kind of a high-level sense of how we would see the economics again, start-up would be in 2028.

我們對該專案的期望是，它將產生大約 20% 左右的 IRR，在這個範圍內，總資本約為 1.8 億美元，其中 50 左右 - 5000 萬美元將由該專案覆蓋授予。這是我們對 2028 年初創企業將如何再次看待經濟的一種高層次認知。

Joshua Spector, UBS.

約書亞‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

Hi, good morning, everyone. It's Chris Perrella on for Josh. I want to follow up with the RM demand. What are you seeing, I guess, the return in the December quarter? And then how do you see the cadence of volumes for the year? And I guess, the dynamic between the Asian imports coming into the US and what's the latest you're seeing there?

嗨，大家早安。克里斯佩雷拉 (Chris Perrella) 替補喬許 (Josh)。我想跟進RM的需求。我想，您對 12 月季度的回報有何看法？那麼您如何看待今年的銷售節奏呢？我想，進入美國的亞洲進口產品之間的動態以及您在那裡看到的最新情況是什麼？

Yeah. So good morning. So we -- as Erica commented, we did see a solid October volume and certainly the return of normalized patterns related to the Mexican drought issue. So I think that's good. The expectation for 2025 in terms of tire production globally is fairly modest, low single-digit sort of expectation, and certainly in the Americas, our outlook would be for modest growth in 2025.

是的。早安.因此，正如埃里卡（Erica）評論的那樣，我們確實看到了 10 月份的銷量，當然也看到了與墨西哥乾旱問題相關的正常化模式的回歸。所以我認為這很好。對 2025 年全球輪胎產量的預期相當溫和，較低的個位數預期，當然在美洲，我們的預期是 2025 年將出現溫和增長。

Now as you point out, we have seen an impact in the region from higher levels of tire imports in the more recent quarters here. And so, our outlook would be for effectively no fundamental change from that current level of imports.

正如您所指出的，我們已經看到最近幾季輪胎進口量增加對該地區的影響。因此，我們的前景是，目前的進口水準實際上不會發生根本性變化。

There certainly are signs of push back against the trend of elevated imports. So we've seen recently, tariffs imposed in Mexico, for example, on Chinese passenger car and light truck tires, those just went into effect last month. And then more recently, antidumping duties imposed by the US on Thai truck tires, TBR tires. And so, certainly, some pushback to the elevated level of tire imports on sort of trade and tariff front.

毫無疑問，有跡象顯示進口增加的趨勢出現了逆轉。例如，我們最近看到墨西哥對中國乘用車和輕型卡車輪胎徵收關稅，這些關稅上個月才剛生效。最近，美國對泰國卡車輪胎、全鋼輪胎徵收反傾銷稅。因此，當然，在貿易和關稅方面，輪胎進口水準的提高會受到一些阻力。

And then some signals as well that the Western tire producers maybe adjusting strategy a bit in defending share against the imports more. So it's certainly a dynamic situation and one that we're watching and managing closely, but on balance, our outlook would be for modest growth in 2025 in the Americas, no fundamental change to the current level of imports.

還有一些訊號表明，西方輪胎生產商可能會稍微調整策略，以便更多地捍衛進口份額。因此，這當然是一個動態的形勢，我們正在密切關注和管理，但總的來說，我們的前景是 2025 年美洲將出現溫和增長，目前的進口水平不會發生根本性變化。

But we'll have to see how these competing forces play out here. Certainly, there's a lot of investment in North America in the tire sector. There are several consultants that have said somewhere in the order of $6 billion of projects that are underway in the US for expansion as well as modernization in Mexico, US, and Canada. So our expectation longer term is that tire production will grow here in North America to support miles driven and provide regional capacity.

但我們必須看看這些競爭力量在這裡如何發揮作用。當然，北美在輪胎行業有大量投資。有幾位顧問表示，美國正在實施價值約 60 億美元的項目，用於墨西哥、美國和加拿大的擴張和現代化建設。因此，我們的長期預期是，北美的輪胎產量將成長，以支持行駛里程並提供區域產能。

No, that's great. And just a quick one on the CapEx step-up for this fiscal year. I guess, what are the moving parts there? And what's driving the incremental rise? Thank you.

不，那太好了。簡單介紹一下本財年的資本支出成長。我想，那裡有哪些活動部件？是什麼推動了增量成長？謝謝。

Yes. So we expect to be in the range of $250 million to $300 million. So I would say in the zone of where we've been, the midpoint of that range would be a modest increase over 2024. The primary drivers there would be the completion of our final air pollution control project in the US at a point in Louisiana as well as the completion of our new production unit in Indonesia that will be coming online in the back half of 2025.

是的。因此，我們預計將在 2.5 億至 3 億美元之間。因此，我想說，在我們目前所處的區域，該範圍的中點將比 2024 年略有增加。在印尼的新生產裝置的竣工，該生產裝置將於2025 年下半年投產。

And then finally, some spending related to growth projects in the battery space. But those would be the primary drivers of the modest increment up.

最後，一些與電池領域成長項目相關的支出。但這些將是適度成長的主要驅動力。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

Thanks very much. I think your battery materials demand in the United States has contracted for eight quarters in a row. Can you comment on that? What's behind that? Is it just too expensive to make tires in the US?

非常感謝。我認為美國的電池材料需求已經連續八個季度萎縮。你能對此發表評論嗎？這背後是什麼？在美國生產輪胎是否太貴？

Jeff, I just want to clarify, I think you said battery materials is contracted for eight quarters, I think means tire --?

傑夫，我只是想澄清一下，我想你說電池材料的合約期是八個季度，我想是指輪胎——？

Reinforcement materials, forgive.

加固材料，見諒。

Yeah, yeah, sure, sure. Well, certainly, what we have seen is that Asian tire imports have increased over the last one to two years, and that's been accelerating, I would say.

是啊，是啊，當然，當然。嗯，當然，我們看到的是，亞洲輪胎進口量在過去一到兩年裡有所增加，而且我想說，這種情況一直在加速。

Now it's important to remember that the global tire market is dependent on Asian tires and has been for some time, and that will continue. But we certainly have seen a more elevated level in the recent quarters as China tries to export their way out of economic weakness, and we've seen the ASEAN countries really step up their level of exports to North America and South America.

現在重要的是要記住，全球輪胎市場依賴亞洲輪胎已經有一段時間了，而且這種情況還會持續下去。但隨著中國試圖透過出口擺脫經濟疲軟，我們在最近幾季確實看到了更高的出口水平，而且我們也看到東協國家確實提高了對北美和南美的出口水平。

So certainly, a dynamic situation, as I just commented on, there's some pushback here, both in terms of tariffs as well as antidumping duties. So I wouldn't say it is so much a question of being uncompetitive. I think it's more a question of is China dumping tires. And certainly, with some recent antidumping duties imposed in this particular case against Thai tires, I think there are questions around that.

當然，正如我剛才所說，在動態情況下，關稅和反傾銷稅方面都存在一些阻力。所以我不會說這是一個缺乏競爭力的問題。我認為這更多的是中國傾銷輪胎的問題。當然，最近在這起針對泰國輪胎的特殊案件中徵收了一些反傾銷稅，我認為這方面存在一些問題。

Certainly, in the long term, the tire makers have committed a lot of capital into North America to build additional capacity and to modernize plants, which are much more automated than used to be. So given the level of automation, the low electricity costs, the fact that synthetic rubber is very competitive here given the competitiveness of the petrochemical industry in the US, I think all of those factors would say that it is a competitive place to make tires and a place where a significant amount of capacity is going to be needed to support the growth in the industry.

當然，從長遠來看，輪胎製造商已經在北美投入了大量資金，以建立額外的產能並對工廠進行現代化改造，這些工廠的自動化程度比以前高得多。因此，考慮到自動化水平、低電力成本，以及考慮到美國石化工業的競爭力，合成橡膠在這裡非常有競爭力，我認為所有這些因素都表明，這是一個製造輪胎和輪胎的競爭場所。大量產能來支持產業成長的地方。

But there are forces at play right now from a trade standpoint that I think are pushing against each other, and we'll have to see how those shake out here in the coming months and year.

但從貿易的角度來看，目前存在一些力量在發揮作用，我認為這些力量正在相互對抗，我們必須看看這些力量在未來幾個月和一年中將如何變化。

So in the context of all that, how are your price negotiations going in the United States for the upcoming year? Is your general expectation that you'll be up or down or flat or you can't tell?

那麼在這一切的背景下，你們明年在美國的價格談判進展如何？您的普遍預期是上漲、下跌、持平還是無法判斷？

Yeah. So this year, negotiations, Jeff, are playing out along the time line that's historically happened where most of the contracts are finalized in the fall here. So we're in the midst of those discussions with customers as we go right now. So it would be inappropriate for me to comment on contract outcomes given the competitive nature of that information.

是的。因此，傑夫，今年的談判正在按照歷史上發生的時間線進行，大多數合約都是在秋天敲定的。因此，我們現在正在與客戶進行討論。因此，鑑於該資訊的競爭性質，我對合約結果發表評論是不合適的。

Now with that, I would say the environment in Europe remains firm, I would say, demand in the Americas certainly impacted by the near-term elevated Asian imports. But the long-term supply side fundamentals haven't changed here with no new capacity adds and higher costs related to environmental regulations.

現在，我想說歐洲的環境仍然堅挺，美洲的需求肯定受到近期亞洲進口增加的影響。但長期供應面基本面並未改變，沒有新增產能，且與環保法規相關的成本上升。

So I would say that supply side picture remains the same. Now as we indicated in our guide, we are expecting margin improvement in reinforcement materials in the fiscal year. So that's our current expectation.

所以我想說供應面的情況不變。現在，正如我們在指南中指出的那樣，我們預計本財年增強材料的利潤率將有所改善。這就是我們目前的期望。

Maybe quickly to other issues. Can you tell us how your battery materials business did for the quarter and for the year, both in terms of sales and EBITDA in 2024? And are you beginning to get energy benefits in Europe as gas prices have moved up?

也許很快就會解決其他問題。您能否告訴我們您的電池材料業務在 2024 年季度和年度的銷售額和 EBITDA 方面表現如何？隨著天然氣價格上漲，您是否開始在歐洲獲得能源效益？

Sorry, Jeff, just repeat the last part of that question. It faded out energy benefit in Europe. I didn't get the last part.

抱歉，傑夫，請重複問題的最後部分。它使歐洲的能源效益逐漸消失。我沒聽懂最後一部分。

So natural gas costs in Europe are now, I don't know, $13 an MMBtu. And so because of your cogen capabilities in Europe, does that give you a benefit? Or is that giving you a benefit?

我不知道現在歐洲的天然氣成本是每 MMBtu 13 美元。那麼，由於您在歐洲的熱電聯產能力，這會為您帶來好處嗎？或者這會為你帶來好處嗎？

Yeah. Okay. So yeah, two questions there. So on the battery front, our volumes were up in 2024. And ex investment in future projects, our margins where profits were up, but we were investing quite a bit to drive future programs and to drive future investment projects, including the project that we recently announced in the DoE -- with the DoE here in the US.

是的。好的。是的，有兩個問題。因此，在電池方面，我們的產量在2024 年有所增加。我們正在實施的項目。

So I would say, progress, but the environment in China remains competitive. And that today still accounts for 75% to 80% of battery production remains -- is produced in China.

所以我想說，進步了，但中國的環境仍然充滿競爭。如今，仍佔電池產量的 75% 至 80%——是在中國生產的。

So our plan here is that our view is that over time, as this market bifurcates and you have production in the West balanced out by the end of the decade, the expectation is that tire production would be about 50-50, 50% produced in China, 50% outside of China.

因此，我們的計劃是，我們的觀點是，隨著時間的推移，隨著這個市場的分化，到本世紀末，西方的產量將達到平衡，預計輪胎產量將達到50-50 左右，其中50% 是在西方國家生產的。

And certainly, the pricing and profit margins and the competitive dynamics are quite different inside and outside of China. And our sales today outside of China and margins are substantially better. So I think as that bifurcation plays out, then we're expecting the profits to grow in this product line and to become a material contributor to the earnings growth of overall Cabot Corp.

當然，中國境內外的定價、利潤率以及競爭動態也有很大不同。如今，我們在中國以外的銷售額和利潤率都大幅提高。因此，我認為，隨著這種分歧的出現，我們預計該產品線的利潤將會成長，並成為卡博特公司整體獲利成長的實質貢獻者。

So that's a bit of what's happening right now in the battery market. In terms of energy prices as it relates to cogen, each asset where we have a cogeneration facility is a little bit different in terms of the type of energy we produce and the marker against which -- the energy market against which that is priced, I would say overall, what you've been seeing is that the forward curve on oil and -- is sort of trending down a little bit.

這就是電池市場目前正在發生的一些情況。就與熱電聯產相關的能源價格而言，我們擁有熱電聯產設施的每項資產在我們生產的能源類型和定價基準方面都略有不同——能源市場定價，我總的來說，你所看到的是石油的遠期曲線有一點下降的趨勢。

So that may put a little pressure on the profits out of the energy centers in 2025. But that's a dynamic situation. It very much depends on the pricing of the underlying energy and that can move quickly as we have seen.

因此，這可能會對 2025 年能源中心的利潤帶來一些壓力。這在很大程度上取決於基礎能源的定價，正如我們所看到的，定價可能會迅速變化。

(Operator Instructions) Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Laurence Alexander，Jefferies。

This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. You talked a bit about maintenance costs in Q4, and I was just wondering what the outlook is for maintenance costs and maybe turnaround in '25 versus '24. It's going to be less or more or how we should think about it?

我是勞倫斯的丹·里佐。您談到了第四季度的維護成本，我只是想知道維護成本的前景如何，以及 25 年與 24 年的情況可能會有所改善。會少還是多，或者我們該如何思考？

Hi, Dan. This is Erica. So maintenance was higher in Q4. We talked about in reinforcement materials. We would expect the cost picture going into Q1 to be down. So -- as I commented, we would expect a $10 million decrease in costs from Q4 to Q1. In the performance chemicals segment, there were maintenance costs in Q4, we expect relatively flat performance on EBIT there. So we wouldn't expect a big change as you think about performance chemicals.

嗨，丹。這是艾麗卡。因此，第四季的維護量較高。我們談到了加固材料。我們預計第一季的成本將會下降。因此，正如我所說，我們預計第四季度到第一季的成本將減少 1000 萬美元。在高性能化學品領域，第四季存在維護成本，我們預期息稅前利潤表現相對持平。因此，當您考慮高性能化學品時，我們預計不會發生重大變化。

Yes, I was thinking about the year -- the whole year, not just Q1. I don't know how that's going to play out.

是的，我在考慮這一年——一整年，而不僅僅是第一季。我不知道事情會如何發展。

Yes. I think from a maintenance perspective, there wouldn't be a material change year-over-year to think about on the fixed cost profile for the segment related to maintenance, yes.

是的。我認為從維護的角度來看，與維護相關的部分的固定成本狀況不會逐年發生重大變化，是的。

No, no, that's very helpful. And then you mentioned your Western tire producers are kind of defending their share, which I assume means getting aggressive with prices. And I was wondering if that's how you're thinking about it, too, and how that could potentially affect you with contracts and with the outlook.

不不不，這很有幫助。然後你提到西方輪胎生產商正在捍衛自己的份額，我認為這意味著在價格上變得激進。我想知道您是否也是這麼想的，以及這對您的合約和前景有何潛在影響。

Yeah. So I mean, I think there is some evidence in the tire retail channel. And in the industry reports there that the Western tire makers are getting a little more aggressive to defend their position. Most likely, I would say, probably in their -- what they call their Tier 2 brands. Certainly, they've all had a strategy of really promoting the high-value tires. So the 18-inch and greater tires, things like that. And that is a growing part of the market as compared to the smaller rim sizes.

是的。所以我的意思是，我認為輪胎零售通路有一些證據。業界報告稱，西方輪胎製造商正在更積極地捍衛自己的地位。我想說，最有可能的是他們所謂的二級品牌。當然，他們都有真正推廣高價值輪胎的策略。所以 18 吋和更大的輪胎，諸如此類。與較小的輪圈尺寸相比，這是一個不斷增長的市場部分。

But I think given the elevated level of tire imports, I think it makes sense that there'd be some level of defense there by them to defend their share in those more competitive end of the market. So I think we'll have to see how that plays out.

但我認為，考慮到輪胎進口水準的提高，他們採取一定程度的防禦措施來捍衛自己在競爭更激烈的市場中所佔的份額是有道理的。所以我認為我們必須看看結果如何。

And then the other factor, as I commented on, is what happens on the trade front. Certainly, a combination of tariffs and antidumping duties are currently being implemented and whether more comes given the trade policies of the incoming administration in the US, difficult to read that at this point.

正如我所評論的，另一個因素是貿易方面發生的情況。當然，目前正在實施關稅和反傾銷稅相結合的措施，考慮到美國即將上任的政府的貿易政策，是否還會徵收更多關稅，目前還很難解讀。

But I think it's pretty clear there's some pushback against this elevated level of imports here. And depending on where that goes, that obviously will have impact on what the demand for carbon black will be in the region. And again, our current view at this point is for modest improvement in 2025 in terms of carbon black demand in the Americas.

但我認為很明顯，這裡的進口水準升高存在一些阻力。根據情況的不同，這顯然會影響該地區對炭黑的需求。再次強調，我們目前的觀點是，美洲炭黑需求在 2025 年將略有改善。

Thank you so much. And as I see no further questions in the queue, I will conclude the Q&A session and turn the call back to Sean Keohane for final remarks.

太感謝了。由於我在隊列中沒有看到更多問題，我將結束問答環節，並將電話轉回肖恩·基歐恩 (Sean Keohane) 進行最後發言。

Great. Thank you very much, Carmen, and thank you all for joining our call today. And I do hope you all can join us on December 4 for our Investor Day, where we look forward to discussing the next phase of strategy development for the company, our priority growth investments over the next three years as well as our next set of long-term financial targets.

偉大的。非常感謝你，卡門，也感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我真誠地希望大家能夠參加 12 月 4 日的投資者日，我們期待著討論公司下一階段的戰略發展、未來三年的優先增長投資以及我們的下一組長期投資計劃。

So I hope you all can join us. And thank you very much for supporting Cabot, and we look forward to seeing you soon.

所以我希望大家能夠加入我們。非常感謝您對卡博特的支持，我們期待很快見到您。

And thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may now disconnect. Good day, everyone.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。您現在可以斷開連線。大家好。