世邦魏理仕集團 (CBRE) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the CBRE Group Inc. Q3 2023 Earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Brad Burke, Head of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Thank you, Mr. Burke, you may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 CBRE Group Inc. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹東道主布拉德·伯克先生，他是投資者關係主管兼財務主管。謝謝您，伯克先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to CBRE's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Earlier today, we posted a presentation deck on our website that you can use to follow along with our prepared remarks and an Excel file that contains additional supplemental materials. Before we kick off today's call, I'll remind you that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, statements concerning our economic outlook, our business plans and our financial outlook.

大家早安，歡迎參加 CBRE 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早些時候，我們在網站上發布了一個演示文稿，您可以使用它來了解我們準備好的評論和包含其他補充資料的 Excel 文件。在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，我要提醒您，今天的簡報包含前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關我們的經濟前景、業務計劃和財務前景的陳述。

Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and trends to differ materially from those projected. For a full discussion of the risks and other factors that may impact these forward-looking statements, please refer to this morning's earnings release and our SEC filings.

前瞻性陳述是對未來事件的預測、預測或其他陳述。這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果和趨勢與預測有重大差異。有關可能影響這些前瞻性陳述的風險和其他因素的全面討論，請參閱今天上午的收益報告和我們向 SEC 提交的文件。

We have provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on our call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures together with explanations of these measures in our presentation deck appendix. I am joined on today's call by Bob Sulentic, our President and CEO; and Emma Giamartino, our Chief Financial Officer. Now please turn Slide 5 as I turn the call over to Bob.

我們在我們的簡報附錄中提供了我們在電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則財務指標對最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節表，以及對這些指標的解釋。我們的總裁兼執行長 Bob Sulentic 也參加了今天的電話會議。以及我們的財務長艾瑪·吉瑪蒂諾 (Emma Giamartino)。現在請翻投影片 5，我會把電話轉給鮑伯。

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Commercial real estate capital markets remained under significant pressure in the third quarter. As a result, we experienced a sustained slowdown in property sales and debt financing activity, which drove the decline in core EPS.

謝謝布拉德，大家早安。第三季商業不動產資本市場仍面臨較大壓力。結果，我們經歷了房地產銷售和債務融資活動的持續放緩，推動了核心每股收益的下降。

This decline was exacerbated by delays in harvesting development assets, which we will sell when market conditions improve. Over the last several quarters, we have detailed the increased importance of our resilient and secularly favored businesses. These businesses saw continued solid growth in the third quarter, led by Global Workplace Solutions. Interest rates have increased more than 100 basis points since we reported second quarter results 90 days ago, continuing the sharpest rise in rates in nearly 40 years.

這種下降因開發資產收穫的延遲而加劇，當市場狀況改善時，我們將出售這些資產。在過去的幾個季度中，我們詳細介紹了我們具有彈性且長期受青睞的業務的重要性日益增加。在全球工作場所解決方案的引領下，這些業務在第三季持續穩健成長。自 90 天前我們公佈第二季業績以來，利率已上漲超過 100 個基點，繼續保持近 40 年來最大幅度的利率上漲。

The unexpected jump in rates has pushed back the capital markets recovery. Property prices are gradually declining, and we believe this process won't complete and transaction activity won't rebound materially until investors are confident that interest rates have peaked, and credit becomes readily available. We now believe this rebound is unlikely to occur until the second half of next year at the earliest. In the meantime, as we discussed last quarter, pockets of opportunity exists, and the breadth and depth of our market presence gives us visibility into where we want to be positioned for the long term.

利率的意外上漲推遲了資本市場的復甦。房地產價格正在逐漸下降，我們認為，在投資者確信利率已見頂且信貸變得容易獲得之前，這一過程不會完成，交易活動也不會大幅反彈。我們現在認為這種反彈最快要到明年下半年才可能發生。同時，正如我們在上季度討論的那樣，存在著一些機會，我們市場存在的廣度和深度使我們能夠清楚地了解我們希望長期定位的位置。

For example, year-to-date, we've committed more than $350 million in co-investments to value-add opportunistic and development strategies and believe these investments are positioned to deliver quite attractive returns as market conditions improve. This is the time in the market cycle when well-positioned investors can secure opportunities that deliver outsized returns. We expect to identify and act on more opportunities to deploy capital, especially in co-investments in M&A while the market is depressed.

例如，今年迄今為止，我們承諾對增值機會主義和發展策略進行超過 3.5 億美元的共同投資，並相信隨著市場狀況的改善，這些投資將帶來相當有吸引力的回報。在市場週期的這個時期，定位良好的投資者可以獲得帶來巨額回報的機會。我們預計將發現更多資本配置機會並採取行動，特別是在市場低迷時進行併購聯合投資。

In light of continuing challenges, in the real estate capital markets, we have lowered our expectations for 2023 core EPS to a mid-30% decrease from the 20% to 25% decline we anticipated 90 days ago. The reduced outlook is almost entirely attributable to our interest rate sensitive businesses. While it's difficult to forecast the timing of the capital markets recovery, the resilient and secularly favored businesses we mentioned earlier have generated over $1.5 billion of SOP over the last 12 months and we expect them to represent over 60% of CBRE's SOP for full year 2023.

鑑於房地產資本市場持續面臨的挑戰，我們將 2023 年核心每股收益的預期從 90 天前預期的下降 20% 至 25% 下調至 30% 左右。前景的下調幾乎完全歸因於我們對利率敏感的業務。雖然很難預測資本市場復甦的時間，但我們之前提到的具有彈性且長期受青睞的業務在過去12 個月中已產生超過15 億美元的SOP，我們預計它們將佔CBRE 2023 年全年SOP的60% 以上。

We further expect SOP from these businesses to increase by double digits next year. Emma will walk you through our outlook after she reviews the quarter. Emma?

我們進一步預計明年這些企業的 SOP 將成長兩位數。艾瑪將在回顧本季後向您介紹我們的前景。艾瑪？

Thanks, Bob. Please turn to Slide 6 for a review of Advisory Services results. This segment's net revenue fell 17% and SOP declined to 35% versus the prior year's Q3. Across geographies, APAC showed the best relative performance with revenue up 3% led by continued strong growth in Japan. Revenue was weak across EMEA declining 18%, slightly better than the Americas, where revenue fell 21%.

謝謝，鮑伯。請參閱投影片 6 查看諮詢服務結果。與去年第三季相比，該部門的淨收入下降了 17%，SOP 下降至 35%。在各個地區中，亞太地區表現最好，在日本持續強勁成長的帶動下，營收成長了 3%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的收入疲軟，下降了 18%，略好於美洲，後者的收入下降了 21%。

The revenue decline was most pronounced in property sales, which decreased 38% with both buyers and sellers pausing amid the sharp and unexpected interest rate increases over the past 90 days. EMEA sales revenues saw the greatest decline at 47%, while APAC sales revenue fell only 12%. In the Americas, property sales revenue dropped 41%.

收入下降最明顯的是房地產銷售，由於過去 90 天意外的急劇加息，買家和賣家都暫停了交易，房地產銷售下降了 38%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區銷售收入降幅最大，達 47%，亞太地區銷售收入僅下降 12%。在美洲，房地產銷售收入下降了 41%。

Ironically, compared with other major property types also saw the least severe decline due to weak prior year comps and seller capitulation. Industrial sales were largely limited to properties under 300,000 square feet and multifamily sales were concentrated in core and core plus properties as investors focus on the highest quality properties to mitigate risk.

諷刺的是，與其他主要房地產類型相比，由於去年的比較疲軟和賣家投降，其跌幅也最輕。工業銷售主要限於 30 萬平方英尺以下的房產，而多戶住宅銷售則集中在核心和核心加核心房產，因為投資者專注於最高品質的房產以降低風險。

Commercial mortgage origination revenue fell less than property sales, down 18%. The decline was tempered by our significant business with the GSEs, which have taken share amidst the broader pullback in lending. Beyond capital markets, our leasing revenue declined by 16%, a few percentage points below what we had anticipated going into the quarter. Significant growth in several APAC countries was offset by lower revenue in both EMEA and the Americas. Economic uncertainty continues to delay occupier decision-making, particularly for large office and industrial deals. For example, leasing revenue declined by 23% in the U.S., but the number of leases completed was only down 10%.

商業抵押貸款發放收入降幅小於房地產銷售，降幅為 18%。我們與政府支持企業的重要業務緩和了這一下降，這些企業在貸款更廣泛的縮減中佔據了份額。除資本市場外，我們的租賃收入下降了 16%，比我們對本季的預期低幾個百分點。幾個亞太國家/地區的顯著成長被歐洲、中東和非洲和美洲收入的下降所抵消。經濟不確定性繼續推遲租戶決策，尤其是大型辦公室和工業交易。例如，美國的租賃收入下降了 23%，但完成的租賃數量僅下降了 10%。

The remaining lines of business in our advisory segment were relatively flat with growth in both loan servicing and property management, offsetting weaker valuations revenue, which is tied to sales and financing activity. Please turn to Slide 7 as I discuss the GWS segment. GWS posted another strong quarter with net revenue and SOP increasing by 14% and 15%, respectively.

我們的諮詢部門的其餘業務線相對平穩，貸款服務和物業管理都在成長，抵消了與銷售和融資活動相關的估值收入的疲軟。請參閱投影片 7，我將討論 GWS 部分。 GWS 再次發布強勁的季度業績，淨收入和 SOP 分別成長 14% 和 15%。

Both Facilities Management and Project Management generated mid-teens net revenue growth. Our business continues to benefit from our focus on industry sectors that allow us to meet the unique needs of our diversified client base. Growth year-to-date has been notable in 3 sectors: health care, due to our enhanced capabilities to meet client needs, energy spurred by strong expansion with existing clients, along with growth in renewable energy, and industrial and logistics, an industry that is increasingly embracing outsourcing in their manufacturing plants to reduce costs.

設施管理和專案管理都實現了中位數的淨收入成長。我們的業務繼續受益於我們對行業領域的關注，這使我們能夠滿足多元化客戶群的獨特需求。今年迄今為止，三個領域的成長顯著：醫療保健（由於我們滿足客戶需求的能力增強）、能源（由於現有客戶的強勁擴張以及可再生能源的增長）以及工業和物流（該行業越來越多的製造工廠採用外包來降低成本。

We are also seeing continued strong revenue growth in our GWS local business, driven by a mix of new and existing clients. Investment in our U.S. local business, which I discussed last quarter, resulted in several new wins and accelerated revenue growth. In addition, our Turner & Townsend project management business continues to outperform expectations, most notably through their expansion in the U.S. Our GWS pipeline reached a new record in the quarter, with 1/3 of our pipeline coming from first-generation outsourcing clients. That is clients who have not previously outsourced their real estate operations.

在新舊客戶的共同推動下，我們的 GWS 本地業務收入持續強勁成長。我上季討論過的對美國本地業務的投資帶來了幾項新的勝利並加速了收入成長。此外，我們的 Turner & Townsend 專案管理業務繼續超出預期，尤其是透過在美國的擴張。我們的 GWS 管道在本季度創下新紀錄，其中 1/3 的管道來自第一代外包客戶。這是指之前沒有外包過房地產業務的客戶。

The growth in first-generation pursuits reflects corporation's increased interest in reducing occupancy costs unwinding uncertain economic environment. Our remaining pipeline is filled with occupiers that are looking to either expand their scope of services with CBRE or switched their service provider to CBRE because of our ability to provide more integrated global solutions.

第一代追求的成長反映了企業對降低佔用成本以緩解不確定的經濟環境的興趣增加。我們剩下的管道充滿了租戶，他們希望透過 CBRE 擴大服務範圍，或將他們的服務提供者轉向 CBRE，因為我們有能力提供更整合的全球解決方案。

Margins improved slightly in Q3 due to strong revenue growth that offset the investments made earlier this year, allowing us to achieve operating leverage. We anticipate further margin expansion next quarter. Now I'll turn to Slide 8 for a discussion of the REI segment. Overall SOP totaled just $7 million, reflecting few U.S. development asset sales and lower operating profit in our Investment Management business.

由於強勁的收入成長抵消了今年稍早的投資，第三季的利潤率略有改善，使我們能夠實現營運槓桿。我們預計下季利潤率將進一步擴大。現在我將轉向投影片 8 來討論 REI 部分。整體 SOP 總額僅為 700 萬美元，反映出美國開發資產銷售很少以及我們投資管理業務的營業利潤較低。

Within Investment Management, the decline in operating profit was primarily driven by negative marks in our more than $330 million co-investment portfolio compared with positive marks last year as well as lower incentive fees. AUM declined sequentially to $144 billion, primarily due to lower property valuations and negative foreign currency effects, which offset modest net inflows. While fundraising has decelerated materially across the sector, including for CBRE, investors remain keenly interested in higher target return strategies to take advantage of current market stress and dislocation, such as opportunistic secondaries and value-add real estate strategies.

在投資管理領域，營業利潤下降的主要原因是我們超過 3.3 億美元的共同投資組合與去年的正值相比出現了負值，以及激勵費用的降低。資產管理規模連續下降至 1,440 億美元，主要是由於房地產估值下降和外匯負面影響抵消了適度的淨流入。儘管整個行業（包括世邦魏理仕）的融資大幅放緩，但投資者仍然對利用當前市場壓力和混亂的更高目標回報策略抱有濃厚興趣，例如機會主義二級市場和增值房地產策略。

And we have committed almost $200 million year-to-date in co-investment capital in support of these strategies. This is a record level of co-investment across our funds and a substantial increase in our commitment to higher return strategies. We have focused on follow-on funds with strong track records and led by experienced portfolio management teams.

今年迄今為止，我們已承諾投入近 2 億美元的共同投資資金來支持這些策略。這是我們各基金共同投資的創紀錄水平，也顯著增強了我們對更高回報策略的承諾。我們專注於擁有良好業績記錄並由經驗豐富的投資組合管理團隊領導的後續基金。

Development results were below expectations due to deals slipping into 2024. Historically, we've covered the U.S. Development business's operating costs with project fees, and we expect this to be the case going forward. Our in-process portfolio was flat with last quarter as we added a few new projects, but also did not have any meaningful asset sales.

由於交易推遲到 2024 年，開發業績低於預期。從歷史上看，我們透過專案費用來支付美國開發業務的營運成本，我們預計未來也會如此。我們的在建投資組合與上季持平，因為我們增加了一些新項目，但也沒有任何有意義的資產銷售。

Note that we have refined our development portfolio definition to better reflect projects that are actively under construction. The primary change is that the definition of in-process now only includes projects that have started construction, whereas the prior definition included projects that are under our control with construction expected to start within 12 months.

請注意，我們已經完善了開發組合定義，以更好地反映正在積極建設的專案。主要變化是，在建項目的定義現在僅包括已開工的項目，而先前的定義包括在我們控制下、預計在 12 個月內開工的項目。

The environment for harvesting development projects and recognizing the related gains has become increasingly challenging. The project sale process is progressing more slowly than we typically see, driven by increased caution from buyers. This has been elongating the sale process rather than impacting pricing. However, we are reaching a point where pricing will be impacted.

收穫發展項目和認識相關收益的環境變得越來越具有挑戰性。由於買家越來越謹慎，專案銷售過程的進展速度比我們通常看到的要慢。這延長了銷售流程，而不是影響定價。然而，我們已經達到了定價將受到影響的地步。

And in that case, we will proactively decide to hold well-capitalized assets until market conditions improve. As Bob noted earlier, these circumstances, which put downward pressure on our business in the short run, create opportunities to secure assets that will lead to substantial future profits.

在這種情況下，我們將主動決定持有資本充足的資產，直到市場狀況改善。正如鮑伯之前指出的，這些情況在短期內給我們的業務帶來下行壓力，但卻創造了獲得資產的機會，從而帶來可觀的未來利潤。

Looking forward, we have continued to invest in development with more than $150 million committed year-to-date. These investments are focused on securing multifamily and industrial projects at a time of capital market dislocation that we expect to deliver historically attractive returns. Please turn to Slide 9. As we've noted, the current environment is providing opportunities to deploy capital strategically.

展望未來，我們將繼續投資於開發，今年迄今已承諾投入超過 1.5 億美元。這些投資的重點是在資本市場混亂之際確保多戶住宅和工業項目的安全，我們預計這些項目將帶來歷史上有吸引力的回報。請參閱投影片 9。正如我們所指出的，目前的環境為策略性部署資本提供了機會。

With respect to M&A, we continue to evaluate many opportunities across our lines of business. However, we are being disciplined about pricing and thorough in our due diligence. Just as the rise in interest rates and increased uncertainty impacts real estate transactions, it also affects M&A deals. We have passed on otherwise attractive deals where we could not close the gap in pricing with sellers.

在併購方面，我們繼續評估我們業務範圍內的許多機會。然而，我們在定價方面遵守紀律，並進行徹底的盡職調查。就像利率上升和不確定性增加影響房地產交易一樣，它也會影響併購交易。我們已經放棄了原本有吸引力的交易，但我們無法縮小與賣家的定價差距。

Our total rates to achieve returns above our risk-adjusted cost of capital have increased along with interest rates. The seller pricing expectations for the most part have adjusted more slowly. In the meantime, we completed over $500 million of share repurchases during the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to $630 million.

我們實現高於風險調整資本成本回報的總利率隨著利率的上升而增加。大多數情況下，賣方定價預期的調整速度較慢。同時，我們在本季完成了超過 5 億美元的股票回購，使年初至今的總額達到 6.3 億美元。

Volatility during the third quarter allowed us to get close to our share repurchase target for the full year. I want to reiterate that while we are looking to take advantage of this period of investment opportunity, we remain highly disciplined around pricing, and we are fully committed to maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet with a leverage ratio below 2 turns.

第三季的波動使我們接近全年的股票回購目標。我想重申，雖然我們希望利用這段時期的投資機會，但我們在定價方面仍保持嚴格的紀律，並且我們完全致力於維持槓桿率低於 2 倍的投資等級資產負債表。

Next, I'll briefly touch on cash flow and cost reductions. Full year free cash flow is tracking below our prior expectations primarily due to lower earnings. In addition, several large uses of cash, mostly timing-related items such as cash compensation tied to last year's results do not flex down with this year's lower earnings. As a result, these items are a headwind to free cash flow this year. As these timing impacts reverse next year, we anticipate a significant improvement in our 2024 free cash flow generation. We discussed earlier this year that we were prepared to cut costs further if the market environment deteriorated.

接下來，我將簡要地談談現金流和成本削減。全年自由現金流低於我們先前的預期，主要是由於獲利下降。此外，現金的幾項大量使用，主要是與時間相關的項目，例如與去年業績掛鉤的現金補償，並不會隨著今年收益的下降而減少。因此，這些項目是今年自由現金流的阻力。隨著明年這些時間影響的逆轉，我們預計 2024 年自由現金流的產生將顯著改善。我們今年稍早討論過，如果市場環境惡化，我們準備進一步削減成本。

That time has come, and we will be reducing costs across our lines of business. We have already targeted $150 million of reductions in our run rate operating costs, primarily focused on our transactional lines of business that have been most negatively impacted by the market downturn. We expect to provide more detail on the benefit of our cost savings actions when we provide 2024 guidance next quarter.

這個時刻已經到來，我們將降低整個業務線的成本。我們已經制定了減少 1.5 億美元營運成本的目標，主要集中在受市場低迷影響最嚴重的交易業務領域。我們預計在下個季度提供 2024 年指引時將提供有關成本節約行動的好處的更多詳細資訊。

Turning to our outlook. As Bob noted earlier, we now expect core EPS for the full year to decline by mid-30%. Our expectations for double-digit revenue and SOP growth in our GWS segment, are more than offset by capital markets-driven SOP declines in advisory and REI segments. Looking to next year, while the recovery of transaction activity, particularly in capital markets, will take longer than initially anticipated, we expect double-digit growth of our resilient and secularly favored lines of business, which combined have exceeded $1.5 billion of SOP on a trailing 12-month basis.

轉向我們的展望。正如鮑勃之前指出的，我們現在預計全年核心每股收益將下降 30% 左右。我們對 GWS 領域兩位數收入和 SOP 成長的預期，被資本市場驅動的諮詢和 REI 領域 SOP 下降所抵消。展望明年，雖然交易活動（尤其是資本市場交易活動）的恢復將比最初預期的時間更長，但我們預計我們的彈性且長期受青睞的業務線將實現兩位數增長，這些業務線的SOP總額已超過15 億美元。以過去 12 個月為基礎。

In addition, we will continue to benefit from strategic deployment of capital and our cost reduction initiatives. Taking into account all of these circumstances, we believe this year will be the trough for our earnings and anticipate meaningful growth next year. However, our return to record earnings will likely be delayed a year relative to our earlier expectations. With that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

此外，我們將繼續受益於資本的策略部署和成本削減措施。考慮到所有這些情況，我們相信今年將是我們獲利的低谷，並預計明年將出現有意義的成長。然而，與我們先前的預期相比，我們恢復創紀錄的獲利時間可能會推遲一年。接線員，我們將開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Anthony Paolone。

Great. My first question relates to leasing and the hesitancy by occupiers to make some decisions there, dial down just the size of deals. Do you think that's on the front end at this point where that hesitancy is just starting? Or do you think that's been happening for a while now? I'm trying to get a sense as to how we should think about leasing as we look at the next few quarters.

偉大的。我的第一個問題涉及租賃以及租戶在做出一些決定（縮小交易規模）方面猶豫不決。您是否認為此時此刻，猶豫才剛開​​始？還是你認為這種情況已經發生了一段時間了？我試圖了解在未來幾個季度我們應該如何考慮租賃。

Tony, it's been happening for a while. It's become a little more pronounced, and we think it's going to go into next year. What's causing it is we don't have a recession. Everybody knows that. We don't have the kind of financial problems we've had in prior cycles. But we have a lot of uncertainty, and we have uncertainty around the cost of capital, which causes companies of all types to be careful about their expenditures that would run through their income statement.

東尼，這種事已經發生有一段時間了。它變得更加明顯，我們認為這種情況會持續到明年。造成這種情況的原因是我們沒有經歷經濟衰退。每個人都知道這一點。我們沒有之前週期中遇到的那種財務問題。但我們有很多不確定性，而且我們對資本成本也有不確定性，這導致所有類型的公司都對貫穿損益表的支出保持謹慎。

Of course, the minute that happens, they're cautious about leasing. We don't think it's going to become materially more pronounced than it is now. And as we've said, we think now when we get to the back half of next year, things will recover. That's where we are. I think what's notable is to slow down on behalf of big absorbers of industrial space.

當然，一旦發生這種情況，他們對租賃就持謹慎態度。我們認為它不會比現在變得更明顯。正如我們所說，我們現在認為，到明年下半年時，情況將會恢復。這就是我們現在的情況。我認為值得注意的是工業空間的大型吸收者要放慢腳步。

We went through an extended period where not only were they taking space to support their growth, some of them were taking space to hedge against future growth. They're now burning through that space. And when that's done, we'll start to see leasing come back by those big industrial users. It is notable that we still only have 4% vacancy in industrial space. So they'll get back to being careful to make sure they have adequate inventory.

我們經歷了很長一段時期，他們不僅佔用空間來支持其成長，而且其中一些還佔用空間來對沖未來的成長。他們現在正在燃燒那個空間。當這一切完成後，我們將開始看到那些大型工業用戶捲土重來。值得注意的是，我們的工業空間空置率仍只有4%。因此，他們會重新小心謹慎，以確保擁有足夠的庫存。

Okay. And then you called out investment management as a focus area on the M&A side. Are you seeing specific deals that are making more sense there? Or is that just an area that thematically you like?

好的。然後您將投資管理稱為併購方面的重點領域。您是否看到了更有意義的具體交易？或者這只是您喜歡的主題領域？

I think Tony, you're talking about maybe prior remarks that we made. We're looking broad-based across the company at M&A, and we've been focused on the areas of our business that are resilient and cyclery favored. Those are the types of larger deals we've done in the past, and those are the types of deals that we're looking at now.

我想托尼，你可能在談論我們之前發表的評論。我們在整個公司範圍內進行廣泛的併購，並且一直專注於具有彈性和週期偏好的業務領域。這些是我們過去做過的較大交易類型，也是我們現在正在考慮的交易類型。

One of the things that's happening right now is we are looking at a number of deals, and we've talked about deals on the larger end of the range that we've typically looked at in the past or as we've typically executed in the past. But pricing has become more of a challenge than it was a year ago or even 6 months ago, similar to what's happening in the real estate market with the gap between buyer and seller valuation remaining higher even increasing as interest rates are increasing.

現在發生的事情之一是我們正在考慮一些交易，並且我們已經討論了我們過去通常關注的或我們通常執行的範圍較大的交易過去。但與一年前甚至六個月前相比，定價已成為更大的挑戰，類似於房地產市場上發生的情況，買家和賣家估值之間的差距仍然較高，甚至隨著利率的上升而擴大。

A similar impact is happening to M&A. So for us, our cost of capital is increasing slightly. Our risk appetite is reducing slightly. And so we need seller prices to come down for us to be able to execute some of these deals -- many of these deals.

併購也產生了類似的影響。所以對我們來說，我們的資金成本正在略有增加。我們的風險偏好略有下降。因此，我們需要降低賣方價格，以便我們能夠執行其中一些交易——其中許多交易。

Okay. And then just, Emma, one last clarifying item, if I can. Did you mention you thought the recurring businesses like GWS were going to grow double digits in '24? Or was that just for '23? I couldn't -- I didn't catch that.

好的。然後，艾瑪，如果可以的話，請最後澄清一下。您是否提到您認為像 GWS 這樣的經常性業務將在 24 年實現兩位數成長？還是這只是23年的事？我不能——我沒聽清楚。

We expect our resilient lines of business in aggregate, which for the year to generate $1.6 billion of SOP to grow in the low double-digit range going forward into the future. And GWS specifically, that SOP for this year is going to grow in the mid-double-digit range, so low teens range and should continue going forward.

我們預計我們的業務線總體上具有彈性，今年將產生 16 億美元的 SOP，未來將在低兩位數範圍內成長。具體而言，GWS 今年的 SOP 將在中兩位數範圍內增長，因此將在十幾歲範圍內增長，並且應該繼續前進。

Okay. So you feel comfortable with that double-digit number around GWS, for instance, for '24 as well?

好的。那麼您對 GWS 周圍的兩位數數字感到滿意嗎？例如，'24？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

Yes. Emma, I just on the share buybacks. I know in the last call, you had talked, I think about doing $600 million, you guys did a little north of $500 million this quarter. So I guess, are you still sticking with that $600 million number for the back half kind of implying a fairly low fourth quarter number? I know that kind of ties in maybe with lack or less free cash flow. So just any thoughts around buybacks for the rest of the year?

是的。艾瑪，我剛剛討論股票回購。我知道在上次通話中，你們談到了，我考慮做 6 億美元，你們本季的業績略高於 5 億美元。所以我想，您是否仍然堅持後半部分的 6 億美元數字，這意味著第四季度的數字相當低？我知道這種聯繫可能與缺乏或較少的自由現金流有關。那麼對於今年剩餘時間的回購有什麼想法嗎？

Steve, that's the right way to think about it. We were going into the latter half of the year where our expectation was for $600 million. And as you said, we did $500 million in this quarter. So we are on track to deliver the same amount we were thinking last quarter.

史蒂夫，這是正確的思考方式。進入下半年，我們的預期是 6 億美元。正如您所說，我們本季的營收為 5 億美元。因此，我們預計將交付與上季預期相同的數量。

Okay. And look, I know everybody is highly focused on the sales environment that really seems to kind of be the linchpin for the company. Bob, you've obviously talked about maybe a second half recovery. Just sort of trying to think through kind of the timing. And is it more the economy that you think is driving people uncertainty?

好的。看，我知道每個人都高度關注銷售環境，這似乎確實是公司的關鍵。鮑勃，你顯然談到了下半年的復甦。只是想嘗試時間安排。您認為是經濟因素導致了人們的不確定性嗎？

Is it the absolute level of interest rates? Is it the fact that the banks and insurance companies aren't really lending money. I know all of it impacts it. But is there one factor that you think is more pronounced than another?

是利率的絕對水準嗎？難道銀行和保險公司並沒有真正放款嗎？我知道所有這些都會影響它。但您認為有一個因素比另一個因素更明顯嗎？

Uncertainty around interest rates is one really prominent fact and the expectation that they're now going to come down later than we previously thought. Number two, there's still a view that values are going to come down some that privately held assets haven't come into line yet and maybe another 5% to 10% decline in asset values.

利率的不確定性是一個非常突出的事實，人們預期利率現在下降的時間將比我們之前想像的要晚。第二，仍有一種觀點認為，私人持有資產的價值將會下降，但尚未達到預期，資產價值可能還會下降 5% 到 10%。

But Steve, I really think it's important to remember this about our business. Those assets are real, and they're held by investors, and there's buyers with massive amounts of capital. Waiting to make trades when those 2 things sort out, we will get back to an active trading environment.

但是史蒂夫，我真的認為記住這一點對我們的業務很重要。這些資產是真實的，由投資者持有，而且買家擁有大量資金。等待這兩件事解決後進行交易，我們將回到活躍的交易環境。

It's not like some things that go away and never come back, right? The assets are there. The base of assets is actually growing and the people that hold the assets, there's a significant number of them and a significant volume of them that want to trade those assets with buyers ready to go.

這不像有些東西一去不復返，對嗎？資產就在那裡。資產基礎實際上正在成長，持有資產的人中有相當多的人希望與準備好的買家交易這些資產。

And buyers are watching closely the interest rates and watching closely the valuations and things are starting to come in line to the point where we think there will be trading again in the second half of next year.

買家正在密切關注利率和估值，情況開始符合我們認為明年下半年將再次進行交易的程度。

Okay. And then one just small technical one. I guess we noticed that the tax rate in the quarter came in much lower than expected. I think that might have helped kind of EPS. Just kind of what are your thoughts and what drove that in the quarter? And I guess is that sort of a sustainable lower tax rate? Or is that more of a one-off issue in the quarter?

好的。然後是一個小的技術問題。我想我們注意到本季的稅率遠低於預期。我認為這可能對每股收益有所幫助。您的想法是什麼以及本季的推動因素是什麼？我想這是一種可持續的低稅率嗎？或者這更像是本季的一次性問題？

That is a onetime tax planning benefit that we had this quarter. For the full year, we're expecting our tax rate to come in at about 21%. And excluding that benefit this quarter, our tax rate is about 20% in Q3.

這是我們本季獲得的一次性稅務規劃福利。我們預計全年稅率約為 21%。排除本季的福利，我們第三季的稅率約為 20%。

Our next question comes from the line of Jade Rahmani with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jade Rahmani 和 KBW 的關係。

On leasing, if new tenants are taking 10% to 20% less space, and there's some pressure on net effective rents on the office side as well as the overall uncertainty around demand for office space. And then you mentioned some of the slowdown in industrial and then I would characterize retailers mixed. Do you think that leasing would be negative in 2024?

在租賃方面，如果新租戶佔用的空間減少10%至20%，那麼辦公室方面的淨有效租金將面臨一定壓力，而且辦公室需求的整體不確定性也會增加。然後你提到了工業的一些放緩，然後我會描述零售商的混合。您認為2024年租賃會出現負數嗎？

It's -- it could be in some areas, Jade, but we think that what's going on with office space has kind of settled out, right? Rates have come way down, users of office space have backed off, people that want premium office space for the experience side of things for their employees are going after it, and we think they'll continue to go after it into next year.

傑德，可能在某些地區，但我們認為辦公空間的問題已經解決了，對嗎？價格已經大幅下降，辦公空間的用戶已經退縮，那些希望為員工提供優質辦公空間以獲得體驗的人們正在追求它，我們認為他們將在明年繼續追求它。

We think industrial has slowed down for a time being. It will come back to the back half of next year, and I think you commented already, retails mixed. But there's a lot of retail activity in the economy now, and there is reason to believe that, that will kind of sustain the way it is now.

我們認為工業成長暫時放緩。它將在明年下半年回歸，我想你已經評論過，零售情況好壞參半。但現在經濟中有很多零售活動，並且有理由相信，這將維持現在的狀態。

And then on GWS. I understand the long-term opportunity and gaining the penetration rate by passing on cost savings to those that don't currently outsource. But there are friction costs associated with this as well as execution complexity and uncertainty. Would not the macro backdrop create headwinds in GWS as well and thereby put some pressure on the double-digit growth. I mean, if the economy is slowing down, it seems that business's double-digit growth profile could be at risk. Could you give some reasons why that's not the case?

然後是 GWS。我了解長期的機會，並透過將成本節省轉移給目前不外包的企業來獲得滲透率。但存在與此相關的摩擦成本以及執行複雜性和不確定性。宏觀背景是否也會為GWS帶來阻力，從而對兩位數成長帶來一些壓力。我的意思是，如果經濟放緩，企業的兩位數成長似乎可能面臨風險。你能給出一些理由來解釋為什麼情況並非如此嗎？

Well, when the economy slows down, the company's focus intensely on cost. And when they focus on cost, they think about having somebody like us, us more than anybody else handle their real estate facilities for them because we save them money. That is an absolute front and center dimension of that business.

嗯，當經濟放緩時，公司會高度關注成本。當他們關注成本時，他們會考慮讓像我們這樣的人，我們比其他任何人都更能為他們處理他們的房地產設施，因為我們為他們節省了錢。這是該業務的絕對前沿和中心維度。

Where you see things slow down is capital expenditures, which can hit project management, but there's so much momentum around various parts of our project management business related to enhancing the experience for clients in the office space that companies have, which is a big deal for them now, and we think that's going to continue to be a big deal. We think that will offset the focus on reducing capital expenditures.

你看到事情放緩的是資本支出，這可能會影響專案管理，但我們專案管理業務的各個部分都有很大的動力，這些部分與增強客戶在公司擁有的辦公空間中的體驗有關，這對公司來說是一件大事現在，我們認為這將繼續成為一件大事。我們認為這將抵消對減少資本支出的關注。

Also, that project management business, as you know, does a lot of stuff in the infrastructure, green energy, et cetera, areas. And so we think that there's offsetting factors there that will allow that business to continue to grow to double-digit rates. So the bottom line is, I don't think what we're seeing in the economy and the uncertainty in the economy would push that down below being a double-digit grower next year.

此外，如您所知，專案管理業務在基礎設施、綠色能源等領域做了很多工作。因此，我們認為存在一些抵消因素，使該業務能夠繼續以兩位數的速度成長。所以最重要的是，我認為我們在經濟中看到的情況以及經濟的不確定性不會將明年的成長率推低至兩位數以下。

Finally, just on REI, have you changed CBRE's underwriting toward the capitalization and acquisition of new projects to account for potentially rates remaining at current levels? And does the outlook for asset sales depend more on timing or a moderation in interest rates in order to refinance those deals and sell at attractive cap rates.

最後，就 REI 而言，您是否改變了世邦魏理仕對新專案資本化和收購的承保，以考慮到仍保持在當前水準的潛在利率？資產出售的前景是否更多地取決於時機或利率的緩和，以便為這些交易進行再融資並以有吸引力的上限利率出售。

Yes. Our underwriting that we do across our REI business for the acquisition of existing assets and for the investment in the co-investment and development deals is all driven by interest rates that we think will be available to us when we capitalize those projects.

是的。我們在 REI 業務中為收購現有資產以及投資聯合投資和開發交易而進行的承保都是由我們認為在對這些項目進行資本化時可以獲得的利率所驅動的。

It's -- there's great attention paid to that and a lot of study around that by our research people and our Chief Economist office, et cetera. So what's in those underwritings is reflective of that view. What's going to -- we commented a little earlier, what's going to drive the sale of assets is the stabilization or decline in interest rates and the general view that values have bottomed out.

我們的研究人員和首席經濟學家辦公室等對此給予了極大的關注並進行了大量的研究。因此，這些承保中的內容反映了這種觀點。我們之前評論過，推動資產出售的因素是利率的穩定或下降，以及人們普遍認為價值已經觸底。

And again, we now think that timing is second half of next year. And we do think prices are going to come down a bit more, maybe as much as 10%.

再說一次，我們現在認為時間是明年下半年。我們確實認為價格會進一步下降，可能會下降 10%。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Sheldon with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自史蒂芬·謝爾頓和威廉·布萊爾的對話。

I wanted to ask another question on the advisory leasing side. Curious how different the revenue trends may look between office versus industrial is one side they're holding up better than the others as we think about growth so far this year and then maybe how you're thinking about it heading into the next year.

我想問另一個關於諮詢租賃方面的問題。令人好奇的是，辦公室與工業之間的收入趨勢可能有多麼不同，一方面，當我們考慮今年迄今為止的增長以及您可能如何考慮明年的增長時，它們比其他方面表現得更好。

So office leasing this year has been performing in line with our expectations. There has been some -- we noted some drop-off in the larger office deals, but we were anticipating decline -- a mid-15% decline across office leasing.

因此，今年辦公室租賃的表現符合我們的預期。我們注意到大型辦公室交易有所下降，但我們預計辦公室租賃會下降 15%。

On the industrial side, that is -- industrial leasing is performing slightly below expectations. But as Bob alluded to, that is primarily driven by the largest industrial transactions and the largest occupiers of industrial space who took on a lot of space over the past couple of years and are resetting. So we don't expect that to be a continued trend going into next year. And in terms of mix, I think our leasing has grown. Industrial has grown as a percentage of our overall leasing and offices declined, but that isn't out of what we were expecting going into the year and into the quarter.

在工業方面，工業租賃的表現略低於預期。但正如鮑勃所提到的，這主要是由最大的工業交易和最大的工業空間佔用者推動的，他們在過去幾年中佔用了大量空間並正在重置。因此，我們預計這種趨勢不會持續到明年。就組合而言，我認為我們的租賃業務有所成長。工業租賃占我們整體租賃的比例有所增長，而辦公室的比例有所下降，但這並不超出我們對今年和本季的預期。

Okay. Great. And then just on capital, if I -- it sounds like you're ramping investments into IM in development. So can you give more detail on the opportunities you're seeing there and why this could be the right time to make those investments?

好的。偉大的。然後就資本而言，如果我——聽起來你們正在加大對 IM 開發的投資。那麼，您能否更詳細地介紹您在那裡看到的機會以及為什麼現在是進行這些投資的最佳時機？

Well, this -- what typically happens in an environment like this and what is definitively happening now on the development side, where the investments we make are largely acquiring land for future development. Landholders -- often landholders that bought that land to develop it, can't develop it because they can't get the capital to develop it or they don't have the capital themselves to make the co-investment needed to develop it. And so good land sites that otherwise wouldn't have been available become available.

嗯，這——在這樣的環境中通常會發生什麼，以及現在在開發方面肯定會發生什麼，我們所做的投資主要是為了未來的開發而獲取土地。土地所有者－通常是購買土地進行開發的土地所有者，無法開發土地，因為他們無法獲得開發土地的資本，或者他們自己沒有資本來進行開發所需的共同投資。因此，原本無法取得的優質土地也變得可用。

And because of our position in two ways, our balance sheet, plus the stable of really strong developers we have in local markets. We identify opportunities of this nature. We're in the market all the time, up and down cycles. We know the land sites that are good. We know the land sites that we would have liked to have gotten that we didn't get.

由於我們在兩個方面的地位，我們的資產負債表，以及我們在當地市場擁有的穩定的真正強大的開發商。我們發現這種性質的機會。我們一直處於市場中，無論上漲或下跌週期。我們知道哪些土地是好的。我們知道哪些土地是我們希望得到但卻沒有得到的。

And what we do is we go back because we now have the capital to take those land sites down, we go back and try to secure some of those sites. And cycle after cycle, what you see is that it's the acquisition of those land sites and the development deals that result from those land sites that become your best profit deals.

我們所做的就是回去，因為我們現在有資本拆除這些土地，我們回去並嘗試確保其中一些土地的安全。周而復始，您會看到，收購這些土地以及由這些土地產生的開發交易成為您的最佳利潤交易。

And as Emma said earlier, we're focused on multifamily and industrial there. On the investment management side, we think this is a good point in the cycle to look at value add and opportunistic. So we have an opportunistic fund run out of the U.K. that's got a very, very strong track record that we've made a significant commitment to with our own balance sheet to raise the next fund to do investments in real estate secondaries and we're very excited about that opportunity.

正如艾瑪之前所說，我們專注於那裡的多戶住宅和工業住宅。在投資管理方面，我們認為這是周期中關注增值和機會主義的好時機。因此，我們有一支來自英國的機會主義基金，該基金擁有非常非常出色的業績記錄，我們已通過自己的資產負債表做出了重大承諾，以籌集下一個基金來投資房地產二級市場，我們正在對這個機會非常興奮。

And then we have 3 value-add businesses, one in each region of the world, U.S., EMEA and Asia Pacific, all of which were providing co-investment to do our next fund in, all of which we see lots of opportunity in. So that's our co-investment strategy. That's what -- when we talk about $370 million year-to-date, that's where we've invested. And we're well positioned to continue to invest.

然後我們有3 個增值業務，世界每個地區都有一個，美國、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區，所有這些業務都為我們的下一個基金提供共同投資，我們在所有這些業務中都看到了很多機會。這就是我們的共同投資策略。這就是——當我們談論今年迄今為止的 3.7 億美元時，這就是我們投資的地方。我們已做好繼續投資的準備。

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick O'Shaughnessy with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自帕特里克·奧肖內西和雷蒙德·詹姆斯的對話。

What are you hearing from asset owners in terms of allocating capital towards commercial real estate in a higher interest rate world as opposed to allocating capital towards asset classes would perceive lower risk.

您從資產所有者那裡聽到的是，在利率較高的世界中，將資本分配給商業房地產，而不是將資本分配給資產類別會帶來較低的風險。

Well, there's -- clearly, there's movement into cash and cash return -- you can get returns on that, that you couldn't get previously. So secured debt, et cetera. There's no doubt that, that dynamic is at play in what's going on with the nontraded REITs, et cetera, and core assets. But people are ready to get back into real estate when things sort out. There's just no doubt about it, the amount of capital that's on the sidelines that wants to get into commercial real estate is enormous. And what's going to have to happen as we said, is interest rates are going to have to stabilize and the belief that valuations have come down is going to have to be there. There is an increasing interest, and I just walked through what we're doing on the development side and opportunistic investment side. There is an increased interest in people getting into those areas that have a longer horizon for returns on their capital and have a higher risk appetite. And there's always, of course, a big chunk of capital with that orientation. So that's what's going on.

嗯，很明顯，現金和現金回報正在發生變化，你可以獲得以前無法獲得的回報。因此擔保債務等等。毫無疑問，這種動態在非交易房地產投資信託基金等以及核心資產的發展中發揮作用。但當情況好轉時，人們準備重返房地產市場。毫無疑問，想要進入商業房地產的觀望資本數量是巨大的。正如我們所說，必鬚髮生的事情是利率必須穩定，並且估值已經下降的信念必須存在。人們的興趣越來越濃厚，我剛剛介紹了我們在開發方面和機會主義投資方面所做的事情。人們越來越有興趣進入那些資本回報期較長且風險偏好較高的領域。當然，總是有大量資本有這種傾向。這就是正在發生的事情。

Got it. Helpful. And then circling back to your earlier comments on leasing. So if I'm understanding it correctly, your view is that even if there is an economic slowdown in 2024, there's really little incremental downside risk to leasing revenues going forward?

知道了。有幫助。然後回到您之前對租賃的評論。因此，如果我理解正確的話，您的觀點是，即使 2024 年經濟放緩，未來租賃收入的增量下行風險真的很小嗎？

There's potentially some, but we're not expecting the decline next year to be greater than what we saw this year. And I think what's important to note, we provided some high-level remarks around what we're expecting over the next couple of years. And that's not to provide any sort of guidance around what we will expect because we all know that it's very difficult to anticipate how the broader external factors will impact the company.

可能會有一些，但我們預計明年的下降幅度不會比今年更大。我認為值得注意的是，我們就未來幾年的預期提供了一些高層評論。這並不是要為我們的預期提供任何指導，因為我們都知道很難預測更廣泛的外部因素將如何影響公司。

But to put context around it, we are very confident that our GWS business will continue to deliver double-digit growth. And if it delivers double-digit SOP growth over the next couple of years, and the remainder of our segments remained flat in 2024 and get back to -- don't even need to get back to 2019 levels of earnings. We will get back to our record levels of EPS. So in terms of leasing, I just want to emphasize that even if there is a slight decline next year, we still have a path to growth over the next 2 years.

但從背景來看，我們非常有信心我們的 GWS 業務將繼續實現兩位數的成長。如果它在未來幾年內實現兩位數的 SOP 成長，而我們的其餘細分市場在 2024 年保持平穩，甚至不需要回到 2019 年的獲利水準。我們的每股盈餘將回到創紀錄的水平。所以在租賃方面，我只是想強調，即使明年略有下降，未來兩年我們仍然有成長的道路。

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Alex Kramm。

Yes. Maybe starting with a little bit of a housekeeping question. But Emma, I think this quarter, you didn't give any specific outlook anymore for -- by segment. So given how important the fourth quarter is maybe you can give us a little bit more color in terms of the various business lines of what we should be expecting? I know it's kind of implied, but more color would be appreciated.

是的。也許從一些家務問題開始。但是艾瑪，我認為這個季度，您不再按細分市場給出任何具體的前景。因此，考慮到第四季度的重要性，也許您可以就我們應該期待的各種業務線向我們提供更多的資訊？我知道這有點含蓄，但如果有更多顏色，我們將不勝感激。

Yes. So for the full year, we're expecting within GWS that our SOP growth will be in line with that low double digit that we've been talking about throughout the year. Advisory overall will be down about in the 30% range. And then REI, as you know, is down a little over 50% for the full year. In terms of what's guided our reduced outlook from what we said in Q2 to what we're saying now from that 20% to 25% EPS decline down to a mid-30s decline, about 1/3 of that is related to capital markets and about 1/3 is related to development and the remainder is confidence across the rest of the business.

是的。因此，對於全年而言，我們預計 GWS 的 SOP 成長將與我們全年討論的低兩位數成長一致。整體諮詢將下降約 30% 的範圍。如您所知，REI 全年下降了 50% 多一點。就引導我們下調展望的原因而言，從第二季度所說的每股收益下降 20% 至 25% 到 30 多歲左右的下降，其中約 1/3 與資本市場和大約1/3 與發展有關，其餘的則是對其他業務的信心。

Okay. Great. And then Secondly, maybe this is a quick one because I think you just addressed this when you asked Patrick's question but thinking about the multiyear outlook again. And maybe I'm stating the obvious, but like -- if I look at my numbers, to get to 2025 record year, basically, if you grow in GWS and you maybe get more aggressive on the buyback?

好的。偉大的。其次，也許這是一個很快的問題，因為我認為您在問帕特里克的問題時剛剛解決了這個問題，但再次考慮了多年前景。也許我說的是顯而易見的事情，但是，如果我看一下我的數據，基本上，如果你的 GWS 增長，你可能會在回購方面更加積極，那麼到 2025 年將達到創紀錄的年份？

Like -- and then potentially in the transactional businesses, if you just grab a little bit of market share, even if this environment stays like this, you could get to a record. I mean, is that what you were just trying to say, I mean, maybe just stating obviously again.

就像——然後在交易業務中，如果你只佔據一點市場份額，即使這種環境保持這樣，你也可能會創下紀錄。我的意思是，這就是你剛才想說的，我的意思是，也許只是再次明確地說出來。

Yes. Absolutely. That -- And that is the point that we're trying to get across is that there is a reasonable path to getting back to record, and we're not anticipating a sharp recovery, especially not next year, and we don't require a sharp recovery in 2025 to get to that record level.

是的。絕對地。這就是我們試圖傳達的一點是，有一個合理的途徑可以恢復到創紀錄的水平，我們預計經濟不會急劇復甦，尤其是明年，而且我們不需要2025 年急劇復甦，達到創紀錄水平。

Again, our resilient and cycle favorite lines of business, which include GWS but also includes property management, the recurring elements of our investment management fees, valuation in loan servicing, that an aggregate is $1.6 billion of SOP. So that growing at low double digits over the next 2 years will create meaningful value. And then, again, our transactional lines of business, so development, the portion of investment management that is more transactional loan origination and sales origination. Those elements only need to get back to just shy of 2019 levels for us to get to record earnings.

同樣，我們最喜歡的彈性和週期業務線，包括 GWS，但也包括物業管理、投資管理費的經常性要素、貸款服務估值，總計 16 億美元的 SOP。因此，未來兩年的低兩位數成長將創造有意義的價值。然後，我們的交易業務線、開發、投資管理部分更多的是交易貸款的發起和銷售的發起。這些因素只需要恢復到略低於 2019 年的水平，我們就能獲得創紀錄的利潤。

Excellent. And then just maybe one quick one. On the GWS business, you called out these first-time outsourcers, I guess. Can you just talk about how the sales cycle differs there because I think it's a meaningful part of the pipeline now? And then overall, can you just remind us when you think about the white space here, how big the first time outsource opportunity is in the context of the size of your business? I mean is there still a very meaningful TAM of companies that really have never outsourced before.

出色的。然後也許只是一個快速的。我想，在 GWS 業務上，您點名了這些首次外包商。您能否談談那裡的銷售週期有何不同，因為我認為它現在是管道中有意義的一部分？總的來說，當您考慮這裡的空白時，您能否提醒我們，在您的業務規模背景下，首次外包機會有多大？我的意思是，是否還有一些非常有意義的 TAM 公司以前從未真正外包過。

Yes. So in your first question, our pipeline across GWS and that includes both Facilities Management and Project Management is -- continues to be at record levels. We have a large and growing pipeline. It's split between about 50% new clients and 50% existing clients. And of those new clients, about half of those are first-generation clients. So about 1/3 of our overall pipeline is first-generation outsourcers.

是的。因此，在你的第一個問題中，我們整個 GWS 的管道（包括設施管理和專案管理）繼續處於創紀錄的水平。我們擁有龐大且不斷成長的管道。其中約 50% 是新客戶，50% 是現有客戶。在這些新客戶中，大約一半是第一代客戶。因此，我們整個通路中大約 1/3 是第一代外包商。

But the important part is that our overall pipeline is building. And yes, those first-generation outsourcers take longer, the sales cycle is longer to convert them over to outsourcing, but it's a huge opportunity and it's a growing opportunity and it is building our pipeline. To your second question around what the opportunity is, it's hard to accurately estimate it, but we believe that only 30% of the overall market is outsourced today. So there is 70% of white space.

但重要的是我們的整體管道正在建設中。是的，那些第一代外包商需要更長的時間，銷售週期更長才能將他們轉變為外包，但這是一個巨大的機會，而且是一個不斷增長的機會，它正在建立我們的管道。關於你的第二個問題，機會是什麼，很難準確估計，但我們相信目前整個市場只有 30% 是外包的。所以有 70% 的空白。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Griffin with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾·格里芬與花旗的對話。

GGreat. Wondering if you can comment on CBRE's view of the macro and kind of how that might have shifted and in turn, kind of shifted your outlook kind of heading into 2024, if at all possible.

G太棒了。想知道您是否可以評論世邦魏理仕對宏觀經濟的看法，以及這種看法可能會發生怎樣的轉變，進而，如果有可能的話，會怎樣轉變您對 2024 年的展望。

Well, we -- the biggest thing, Michael, that's shifted in our view is that it's going to take longer for interest rates to come down. It's going to take longer for debt, in particular, to become available for real estate -- commercial real estate transactions. And as a result, transactions are not going to return until the back half of next year, where we thought they were going to return late this year, early next year.

好吧，邁克爾，我們觀點發生的最重要的轉變是利率需要更長的時間才能下降。尤其是，債務需要更長的時間才能用於房地產——商業房地產交易。因此，交易要到明年下半年才會恢復，而我們原以為交易會在今年底明年初恢復。

Secondly, we have introduced this notion that we're seeing, particularly with industrial tenants that the uncertainty is just causing them to pause, and we think that's going to go through the first half of next year. But we really don't think that's going to be a big deal because they're burning through inventories of space that they took down for defensive purposes, I guess, for lack of a better term. And so that's what we see where -- if you were to sum it all up, the recovery that we thought would start towards the end of this year, we now think is going to start 6-or-so months later, maybe a little longer. And for us, that pushes back our assumptions about the return to peak earnings a year or so into the following year.

其次，我們引入了我們所看到的這個概念，特別是對於工業租戶來說，不確定性只是導致他們暫停，我們認為這種情況將持續到明年上半年。但我們真的不認為這會是一個大問題，因為他們正在燒毀他們出於防禦目的而佔用的空間庫存，我想，因為缺乏更好的術語。這就是我們所看到的——如果你總結一下的話，我們原以為復甦將在今年年底開始，但現在我們認為復甦將在大約 6 個月後開始，也許會稍晚一些更長。對我們來說，這將我們關於一年左右盈利達到高峰的假設推遲到了下一年。

That's helpful. And then just on the advisory business. I know you called out Japan and APAC as a relative outperformer compared to America or EMEA. But was there any other drivers that led APAC to be pretty notable outperformer this quarter?

這很有幫助。然後就是諮詢業務。我知道您認為日本和亞太地區的表現優於美國或歐洲、中東和非洲地區。但是否還有其他驅動因素導致亞太地區本季表現出色？

For us specifically, we just have a very good business in Japan. And it's -- obviously, that's a huge economy and Tokyo is a huge real estate market. And over the years, we -- there has been a struggle around the notion of intermediation there. There was a lot of business done directly by buyer and seller, tenant landlord, et cetera. That intermediation has become more accepted. There's also been a struggle to have non-Japanese domestic companies in the mix, so to speak.

具體來說，對我們來說，我們在日本的業務非常好。顯然，這是一個巨大的經濟體，東京也是一個巨大的房地產市場。多年來，我們圍繞著中介概念一直存在著鬥爭。有很多生意是由買家和賣家、租戶房東等直接完成的。這種中介已變得越來越被接受。可以說，要讓非日本國內公司參與也很困難。

And that is -- as it relates to being the designated intermediary when intermediation happens and also being a home for talent. We have really changed our profile as a recruiter there over the last few years. And we have really changed our profile as a recruiter there over the last few years. And we have really changed our profile over there the last few years as somebody that's a recognized intermediary. As a result, we used to talk about, well, we've got good growth in Asia, but good growth on bases of business that weren't that needle moving to our overall results.

那就是——因為它涉及在中介發生時成為指定的中介，同時也是人才的家。在過去的幾年裡，我們確實改變了我們作為招募人員的形象。在過去的幾年裡，我們確實改變了我們作為招募人員的形象。過去幾年，我們確實改變了我們作為公認中介機構的形象。因此，我們過去常說，我們在亞洲取得了良好的成長，但良好的成長是建立在業務基礎上的，而這對我們的整體表現並沒有那麼重要。

Japan is now our second most profitable market in the world. behind the United States for advisory business. So when Japan does relatively well as it's doing now, you get the results we're getting. It's big enough to be needle moving for us. And then in general, as you know, the return to the office across Asia and Pacific is ahead of where it is in either the United States or EMEA.

日本現在是我們全球第二大獲利市場。諮詢業務落後於美國。因此，當日本表現得像現在這樣相對較好時，你就會得到我們現在得到的結果。它夠大，足以讓我們激動不已。總的來說，如您所知，亞太地區的辦公室回歸率領先於美國或歐洲、中東和非洲地區。

Our next question comes from the line of Jade Rahmani with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jade Rahmani 和 KBW 的關係。

On the M&A front, would you confirm that investment management is the key focus? And would you also be able to provide an updated comment as to how infrastructure fits in your overall strategic framework if you see this potentially emerging as a new business line alongside your others and potentially an additional diversifier?

在併購方面，您是否確認投資管理是重點？如果您認為基礎設施有可能與您的其他業務一起成為新的業務線並可能成為額外的多元化業務，您能否就基礎設施如何適應您的整體策略框架提供最新評論？

Jade, in terms of M&A, we -- Emma made this comment. We look across our whole business. We have a very capable corporate development team that partners up with a group of geographic and business line leaders across the whole business around the world and across our lines of business to seek out M&A opportunities where we think we can enhance our offering to our clients.

Jade，就併購而言，我們——Emma 發表了這樣的評論。我們縱觀整個業務。我們擁有一支非常有能力的企業發展團隊，該團隊與世界各地整個業務和我們各業務線的地理和業務線領導者合作，尋找併購機會，我們認為可以增強我們為客戶提供的服務。

We just -- you just saw today, we announced something in the -- for our capital markets business in the investment banking capital advisers area. That was an area where we thought we had a bit of a hole. We went out and brought on a business that was very substantial global and additive. Lots of areas of interest. Investment management has been an area of interest for us, but sole of others. We have several areas of interest in our in our GWS business.

您今天剛看到，我們在投資銀行資本顧問領域的資本市場業務中宣布了一些內容。我們認為這個領域存在一些漏洞。我們走出去並開展了一項非常大規模的全球性和附加業務。很多感興趣的領域。投資管理一直是我們感興趣的領域，但也是其他領域唯一感興趣的領域。我們的 GWS 業務有多個感興趣的領域。

We have select areas of interest in our advisory business. We even have some areas we're looking at in the development business. But one of the things that's going on right now, and Emma mentioned this, is that pricing for M&A has not moved quite as quickly as we hoped or thought it would. And we're just showing a lot of -- excuse me, a lot of discipline around what we're going to do in terms of acquiring other companies.

我們的諮詢業務有一些感興趣的領域。我們甚至正在關注開發業務的一些領域。但目前正在發生的一件事，艾瑪提到了這一點，是併購定價的變化速度沒有我們希望或想像的那麼快。對不起，我們只是在收購其他公司方面表現出許多紀律。

We're simply not going to pay prices that we think are unreasonable just to get businesses that we like. We think pricing is going to come into line. We see some signs of that. We've got a pipeline across those businesses and geographies that we like, but we're being disciplined. As it relates to infrastructure, there's 2 areas of our business where we are active with infrastructure.

我們不會僅僅為了獲得我們喜歡的業務而支付我們認為不合理的價格。我們認為定價將會趨於一致。我們看到了一些跡象。我們在我們喜歡的業務和地區擁有一條管道，但我們受到紀律約束。由於與基礎設施相關，我們在兩個業務領域積極進行基礎設施建設。

We have a nice sized infrastructure investment management business. It's small relative to our overall investment management business, but it's in the upper single digits in terms of billions of dollars of AUM, and we're looking for opportunities to grow that because we think it's got great long-term secular profile.

我們擁有相當大的基礎建設投資管理業務。相對於我們的整體投資管理業務來說，它的規模很小，但就資產管理規模而言，它處於較高的個位數，我們正在尋找成長的機會，因為我們認為它具有良好的長期長期形象。

The other place where we have a very significant infrastructure business is with the Turner & Townsend acquisition. They do a lot of infrastructure, program management, cost consultancy and project management. And they're well positioned. They're very well positioned in geographies around the world where that work is going on. They do a decent amount of work and a significantly growing amount of work as it relates to sustainability. So we have a pretty strong infrastructure profile with them.

我們擁有非常重要的基礎設施業務的另一個地方是對 Turner & Townsend 的收購。他們從事大量基礎設施、專案管理、成本諮詢和專案管理工作。而且他們的位置很好。他們在世界各地開展這項工作的地區都處於非常有利的位置。他們做了大量的工作，而且與永續性相關的工作量顯著增加。所以我們與他們有相當強大的基礎設施概況。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And at this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to CEO, Bob Sulentic for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。此時，我想將發言權交還給執行長 Bob Sulentic 發表結束評論。

Thanks, everyone, and we look forward to getting back together with you when we announce our year-end earnings.

謝謝大家，我們期待在公佈年終收益時與大家重聚。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。