丘博保險集團 (CB) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Jail, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Limited third quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您耐心等候。我叫 Jail，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻，我謹代表主辦方歡迎各位參加 Chubb Limited 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

I'd now like to turn the conference over to Susan Spivak, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在我想將會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁 Susan Spivak。您可以開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our September 30, 2026, third quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to the company's performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are all subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. See our recent SEC filings, earnings release, and financial supplement, which are all available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.

謝謝各位，歡迎參加我們截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日的第三季財報電話會議。我們今天的報告將包含前瞻性陳述，包括與公司績效、定價與業務組合、成長機會，以及經濟與市場狀況相關的陳述；上述事項均受風險與不確定性影響，實際結果可能與所述內容有重大差異。更多可能影響這些事項之因素，請參閱我們近期的 SEC 申報文件、財報新聞稿與財務補充資料，皆可於我們網站 investors.chubb.com 取得。

We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

我們今天也將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標；其與最直接可比之 GAAP 指標的調節表及相關細節，已載於我們的財報新聞稿與財務補充資料中。

Now, I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. Then we will take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team.

現在，我想介紹今天的講者。首先是董事長兼執行長 Evan Greenberg；接著是財務長 Peter Enns。之後我們將開放提問。另外，亦有數位管理團隊成員在場協助回覆各位問題。

And now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

現在很高興把電話交給 Evan。

Good morning. As you can see, we had a really strong quarter. Our sources and quality of earnings, starting with world-class underwriting margins, speak to Chubb's excellent competitive profile, including our geographic and business diversification, our growing invested asset, and an enduring culture of underwriting discipline, a hallmark of who we are. These distinguishing attributes have all contributed to a long record of sustainable and growing value creation.

各位早安。如各位所見，我們本季表現非常強勁。我們的獲利來源與品質——從世界級的核保利潤率開始——展現了 Chubb 優異的競爭定位，包括我們在地域與業務上的多元化、持續成長的投資資產，以及長久以來堅守核保紀律的文化，這是我們的核心特質。這些與眾不同的優勢共同造就了我們長期、可持續且不斷成長的價值創造紀錄。

P&C underwriting, investment, and life income results led to core operating earnings of $2.98 billion or a record $7.66 per share. That was down about 2% and up about 1%, respectively due to exceptionally light cat losses last year.

產險（P&C）核保、投資與壽險收益帶動核心營運盈餘達 29.8 億美元，或每股 7.66 美元，創下新高。由於去年巨災損失異常偏低，前者約下降 2%，後者則約上升 1%。

From a more meaningful perspective, looking to the first nine months of the year, core operating income was $8.6 billion, up 21% from the prior year. And core operating EPS was $21.94, up 24.5% from last year. Annualized core operating return on tangible equity was 21.6% for the quarter. And core operating ROE was 14.9%. For the quarter, P&C underwriting income of nearly $2.1 billion led to a combined ratio of 84.1%.

從更具意義的角度來看，若觀察今年前九個月，核心營運收入為 86 億美元，較去年同期成長 21%。核心營運每股盈餘（EPS）為 21.94 美元，較去年成長 24.5%。本季年化核心營運有形股東權益報酬率為 21.6%。核心營運 ROE 為 14.9%。本季產險核保收入接近 21 億美元，使綜合率達 84.1%。

We had strong contributions from all of our businesses. Year to date, we have produced record underwriting income of $5.8 billion, up nearly 34%. Our global P&C ex-cat combined ratio was a world-class 81.8%, essentially flat with the prior year and included a reduction in our loss ratio and our admin ratio, offset by an increase in acquisition ratio. This speaks to our increasing efficiencies and mix of business.

我們所有業務皆有強勁貢獻。年初至今，我們創下 58 億美元的核保收入新高，成長近 34%。我們全球產險（不含巨災）綜合率為世界級的 81.8%，與去年基本持平；其中損失率與管理費用率下降，但被取得成本率上升所抵銷。這反映了我們效率提升以及業務組合的變化。

On the investment side of our business, adjusted net investment income was a record $1.89 billion, supported by a materially improved fixed income investment environment and record cash flows. Fixed income related exposure is 88% of our invested assets, and equity-related is 12%.

在投資業務方面，調整後淨投資收益創下 18.9 億美元新高，受惠於固定收益投資環境顯著改善以及創紀錄的現金流入。固定收益相關曝險占我們投資資產的 88%，權益相關占 12%。

Our current and future operating income benefits from a rising interest rate environment, which we have expected for some time, given growing fiscal deficits, inflation and the public and private sector competition for money.

在利率上升的環境下，我們目前與未來的營運收入將受益；基於財政赤字擴大、通膨，以及公私部門對資金的競爭，我們早已預期會出現此一趨勢。

We positioned ourselves with that in mind by maintaining a moderate duration and a conservative approach to credit quality. We are a buy-and-hold investor of a high-quality investment grade portfolio. Rising rates produced a third quarter mark of $4.5 billion in net realized and unrealized losses. Given our duration and higher reinvestment rates, the mark will amortize away reasonably quickly. It is ephemeral. The third quarter fixed income portfolio yield was 5.2%, and our current new money rate averages 6.2% as of September 30.

我們基於此一考量進行配置，維持適中的存續期間，並對信用品質採取保守作法。我們是高品質投資級投資組合的買入並持有型投資人。利率上升使第三季出現 45 億美元的已實現與未實現淨損失（按市價評價）。考量我們的存續期間與較高的再投資利率，該評價損失將在合理時間內相對快速地攤銷消退。這是短暫性的。第三季固定收益投資組合殖利率為 5.2%，截至 9 月 30 日，我們目前新投入資金的平均利率為 6.2%。

On the alternative asset side, as was publicly announced in the quarter, strategic holdings in our holding company partnership with KKR agreed to sell our investment in USI Insurance Services to Aon. This is expected to result in a realized gain of $460 million on an investment of $740 million. Our invested asset stands at over $175 billion, up from $168 billion a year ago.

在另類資產方面，如本季已公開宣布，我們與 KKR 的控股公司合夥架構下之策略性持股，已同意將我們在 USI Insurance Services 的投資出售給 Aon。預期將在 7.4 億美元投資基礎上，實現 4.6 億美元的已實現收益。我們的投資資產規模已超過 1,750 億美元，高於一年前的 1,680 億美元。

Life income of $369 million this quarter was up about 11.5% from last year. Year-to-date, life income is just over $1 billion, up over 9% from a year earlier. Peter is going to have more to say about financial items.

本季壽險收益為 3.69 億美元，較去年成長約 11.5%。年初至今，壽險收益略高於 10 億美元，較一年前成長逾 9%。Peter 將就財務項目補充更多說明。

Now turning to underwriting, pricing, and growth. The substantial majority of our businesses are growing, with the balance flat or purposely shrinking due to inadequate pricing or terms. There's nothing new there. In the quarter, we again shed more property and financial lines exposure, which affected growth. The most visible example again is in the US.

接著談核保、定價與成長。我們絕大多數業務都在成長，其餘則持平或因定價或條款不足而刻意縮減。這並非新情況。本季我們再次降低更多財產險與金融險種的曝險，因而影響成長。最明顯的例子仍在美國。

North America middle and small commercial grew in the quarter, as did North America personal lines in agriculture. Overseas General had good growth across all major regions, both consumer and commercial, particularly middle and small commercial. While North America E&S and major accounts shrank, this pattern of growth again speaks to the breadth of our business and our diversified sources of growth and opportunity globally.

北美中型與小型商業保險本季成長，北美個人險中的農業業務亦成長。海外一般保險在所有主要地區、消費者與商業業務均有良好成長，尤其是中型與小型商業保險。雖然北美超額及剩餘（E&S）與大型帳戶業務縮減，但這樣的成長型態再次顯示我們業務版圖的廣度，以及我們在全球多元化的成長來源與機會。

While total P&C premiums were up 1.9%, Overseas General grew 6.7%. North America personal lines was up 5.3%, and agriculture was up over 5%. Agriculture was a meaningful contributor to growth this quarter. North America Commercial was down 2.7%, impacted again by large account and E&S property and financial lines, where we non-renewed certain business and purchased additional reinsurance. The adverse impact on growth was about 4.5 points.

整體產險保費成長 1.9%，其中海外一般保險成長 6.7%。北美個人險成長 5.3%，農業業務成長超過 5%。農業業務是本季成長的重要貢獻者。北美商業保險下滑 2.7%，再次受到大型帳戶與 E&S 的財產險及金融險種影響；我們對部分業務不再續保，並額外購買再保險。對成長的不利影響約為 4.5 個百分點。

And with that said, I fully expect North America Commercial growth to improve materially in future quarters. In terms of pricing, the market continues to grow more competitive in commercial P&C across the globe, in particular, the US and London.

話雖如此，我完全預期北美商業保險的成長在未來幾季將顯著改善。就定價而言，全球商業產險市場持續變得更具競爭性，尤其是在美國與倫敦。

Beyond property, competitive market conditions are spreading to more casualty lines, where pricing in numerous areas is failing to keep pace with loss costs, which while steady, continues to well outpace general inflation. There is a lot of hungry and extremely naive capacity available. Our broad diversification, including a deep local presence in so many countries and lines of business, leave us relatively well positioned with many areas of opportunity.

除財產險之外，競爭性的市場狀況正擴散至更多責任險線別；在許多領域，定價未能跟上損失成本，而損失成本雖然趨勢平穩，仍持續大幅超越一般通膨。市場上存在大量急於承作且極度天真的承保能力。我們廣泛的多元化布局——包括在眾多國家與業務線別的深厚在地據點——使我們在許多機會領域中相對處於有利位置。

With that as a baseline, I'm going to give you more color on the quarter by division and region. In international P&C, a $17 billion business, our consumer-related businesses, both A&H and personal lines were up 7.2%, and commercial was up 6.3%. Latin America grew 11.7%. Asia grew 7.5%, and Europe grew almost 7%. In our London wholesale business, which is about 10% of international P&C, premiums were up 13.5% for the quarter, benefiting in particular from our Gulf War marine-related activities.

以此作為基礎，我將按事業部與地區提供本季更多細節。在國際產險業務（規模約 170 億美元）中，我們與消費者相關的業務——包括意外與健康險（A&H）及個人險——成長 7.2%，商業保險成長 6.3%。拉丁美洲成長 11.7%。亞洲成長 7.5%，歐洲成長接近 7%。在我們的倫敦批發業務（約占國際產險的 10%）中，本季保費成長 13.5%，特別受惠於我們與海灣戰爭相關的海運業務活動。

Turning back to North America. Premiums in our $10 billion middle market and small commercial division grew about 1%, with P&C lines up 2.6% or 4%, adjusting for a smaller annual workers' comp-related premium adjustment than we had last year. And middle market financial lines was down 5.9% or up about 1.8% adjusted for exposure change from additional use of reinsurance and non-renewal of inadequately priced business.

回到北美。我們在規模100億美元的中型市場與小型商業部門，保費成長約1%；其中產險（P&C）業務成長2.6%，若調整去年較大幅度的年度工傷補償（workers' comp）相關保費調整因素，則成長約4%。而中型市場的金融線業務下滑5.9%；若就因增加再保使用及不續保定價不足業務所造成的曝險變動進行調整，則約成長1.8%。

In our $16 billion major accounts and specialty division, premiums declined 5%, and adjusting for property, were up about 1%. Gross premium pricing in North America for commercial property was down 4.2%. Casualty was up 5.7%, and financial lines was up 2.1%.

在規模160億美元的大型客戶與專業險部門，保費下滑5%；若就財產險因素調整，則約成長1%。北美商業財產險的總保費定價下滑4.2%。責任險上升5.7%，金融線上升2.1%。

Going a step further for the business we wrote, property pricing was down 11% in shared and layered major and specialty and up a little over 0.5% in mid and small.

再進一步看我們實際承保的業務，在大型與專業險的共保與分層（shared and layered）業務中，財產險定價下滑11%；在中小型業務中則上升略高於0.5%。

On the consumer side of North America, our nearly $8.5 billion high net worth personal lines business, the clear market leader in that category had another really good quarter with premium growth of almost 5.5%. Our combined ratio was 60.3%, which speaks to the strength of our risk selection, underwriting, and sophistication in pricing, and of course, a lighter than average quarter for cats.

在北美的消費者端，我們近85億美元的高淨值個人險業務——該類別明確的市場領導者——本季再度表現非常出色，保費成長接近5.5%。我們的綜合比率為60.3%，這反映出我們在風險選擇、核保以及定價精準度上的實力，當然也包括本季巨災（cat）損失低於平均。

In our international life insurance business, premiums and deposits rose over 15.5%. The vast majority of our life exposure, as you know, is in Asia, and the majority of growth is coming in North Asia, meaning China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan, though I'd like to call out Thailand as well this quarter.

在我們的國際壽險業務中，保費與存款成長超過15.5%。如各位所知，我們絕大多數的壽險曝險在亞洲，而成長主要來自北亞，也就是中國、香港、韓國與台灣；不過本季我也想特別點名泰國。

Premiums in our North America Chubb Worksite Benefits business were up over 11.5%. Our international life division produced $277 million of pre-tax income in the quarter, up 7% from last year, with income up almost 11% year to date.

我們北美 Chubb Worksite Benefits（職場福利）業務的保費成長超過11.5%。我們的國際壽險部門本季稅前收益為2.77億美元，較去年成長7%；年初至今收益成長接近11%。

In sum, our global diversification, our presence and capabilities globally, our large and growing invested asset along with rising interest rates, and our operating discipline provide us with strong margins, continued growth opportunities, and sustainability of value creation. We are a consistent compounder of wealth and an all-weather firm with many sources of opportunity on both the liability and asset side of the balance sheet, and we are patient.

總結而言，我們的全球多元化、全球布局與能力、龐大且持續成長的投資資產（並受惠於利率上升），以及營運紀律，為我們帶來強勁的利潤率、持續的成長機會與價值創造的可持續性。我們是一家能持續複利累積財富、可因應各種景氣環境的公司，在資產負債表的負債端與資產端都有多元的機會來源，而且我們有耐心。

Cats and FX aside, as I look out over the medium term, I am confident in our ability to continue to outperform and to generate strong growth in operating earnings and EPS, and most important, double-digit growth in tangible book value.

撇開巨災與匯率（FX）因素不談，從中期來看，我對我們持續跑贏同業、並在營運收益與每股盈餘（EPS）上實現強勁成長的能力充滿信心；更重要的是，有形帳面價值達成雙位數成長。

I'm going to turn the call back over to Peter, and then we're going to come back, and we're going to take your questions.

我把電話交回給Peter，接著我們會回來回答各位的問題。

Thank you, Evan, and good morning. Our third quarter results were driven by strong underlying business performance and continued strength in our investment results.

謝謝你，Evan，大家早安。我們第三季的結果主要來自強勁的核心業務表現，以及投資成果持續強勁。

We continue to effectively manage our balance sheet and remain in a financially strong position with book value of $73 billion and excellent liquidity, as evidenced by a record $12.8 billion in adjusted operating cash flow over the last nine months.

我們持續有效管理資產負債表，並維持非常穩健的財務狀況；帳面價值為730億美元，流動性極佳，從過去九個月創紀錄的128億美元調整後營運現金流即可見一斑。

During the quarter, we issued approximately CHF400 million of debt at a weighted average cost of 1.1% and an average term of five years. The use of proceeds is for general corporate purposes, which includes the repayment and refinancing of debt.

本季我們發行約4億瑞士法郎（CHF）的債務，加權平均成本為1.1%，平均期限為五年。募集資金用途為一般公司用途，包括償還與再融資既有債務。

For the quarter, we returned $1.6 billion of capital to shareholders, including $1.2 billion in share repurchases at an average price of $344.32 and $393 million in dividends. For the first nine months, we have returned about $4.5 billion of capital to shareholders.

本季我們向股東返還資本16億美元，其中包括以平均每股344.32美元回購12億美元股票，以及發放3.93億美元股利。今年前九個月，我們已向股東返還約45億美元資本。

Book and tangible book value per share excluding AOCI grew 2.6% and 3.5%, respectively for the quarter, and tangible book value per share adjusting for AOCI was up 15.4% from the prior year. Pre-tax catastrophe losses were $705 million for the quarter, principally from a variety of weather-related events globally and an earthquake in Latin America. Cat losses were $1.7 billion through nine months versus $2.6 billion over the same period last year.

本季每股帳面價值與每股有形帳面價值（均不含AOCI）分別成長2.6%與3.5%；若就AOCI進行調整，每股有形帳面價值較去年同期上升15.4%。本季稅前巨災損失為7.05億美元，主要來自全球多起與天氣相關的事件，以及拉丁美洲的一起地震。年初至今九個月的巨災損失為17億美元，去年同期為26億美元。

Pre-tax prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was favorable $562 million, comprising $575 million of favorable development in short-tail lines and $13 million of unfavorable development in long-tail lines.

本季在我們持續經營公司（active companies）的稅前前期年度準備金發展（prior period development）為有利5.62億美元，其中短尾業務有利發展5.75億美元，長尾業務不利發展1,300萬美元。

As you know, and Evan has said repeatedly, we are slow to recognize favorable development and quick to recognize unfavorable development. Our corporate runoff portfolio had adverse development of $51 million, predominantly in environmental-related. Overall, our loss reserves, which are now over $71 billion, are conservatively constructed and remain extremely strong. Our pay-to-incurred ratio for the quarter and year-to-date was 80% and 86%, respectively.

如各位所知，且Evan也一再提到，我們對有利發展的認列較為保守、較慢；對不利發展的認列則更快。我們的公司清理（runoff）投資組合出現5,100萬美元的不利發展，主要與環境相關。整體而言，我們目前超過710億美元的損失準備金是以保守方式建立，且仍然非常強健。本季與年初至今的已付/已發生（pay-to-incurred）比率分別為80%與86%。

Our core operating effective tax rate was 19.9% for the quarter, which is near the top end of our previously guided range due to shifts in mix of income and the impact of discrete tax items. We continue to expect our core operating effective tax rate for the full year to be in the range of 19.5% to 20%. Effective this quarter, we have excluded the amortization of certain M&A-related intangible assets from our core operating income. This change, which has a de minimis impact on growth and ROE, better represents the true economics of past acquisitions and improves our comparability with peers globally. All prior periods have been recast accordingly.

本季核心營運有效稅率為19.9%，由於收益組合變動以及一次性稅務項目的影響，接近我們先前指引區間的上緣。我們仍預期全年核心營運有效稅率將落在19.5%至20%的區間。自本季起，我們已將部分併購（M&A）相關無形資產的攤銷自核心營運收益中排除。此變更對成長與股東權益報酬率（ROE）的影響極小（de minimis），但能更貼近過往收購案的真實經濟實質，並提升我們與全球同業的可比性。所有過往期間已相應重編。

I'll now turn the call back over to Susan.

我現在把電話交回給Susan。

Thank you, Peter. At this point, we're happy to take your questions. Operator, first question, please.

謝謝你，Peter。接下來我們很樂意回答各位的問題。接線員，請進第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Mayer Shields, KBW.

(接線員指示) KBW 的 Mayer Shields。

Evan, I was hoping we can get a little bit more color on the increasing risk that you're transferring to reinsurers.

Evan，我希望能更具體了解一下你們正在轉移給再保人的風險增加這件事。

In what regard?

你指的是哪一方面？

So you mentioned that one of the headwinds to North America Commercial growth was more reinsurance purchasing, and I was wondering which lines that's focused on.

你提到北美商業險成長的一個逆風是增加購買再保，我想了解主要集中在哪些險種。

Yeah. Well, as you know, and I think we discussed it, it's in financial lines, certain areas of financial lines, and it's in property. In both of those, we took advantage of opportunities to place additional reinsurance, which also gives us the opportunity to maintain presence and provide service and coverage to customers and at the same time, spread risk. And it was in those two areas.

是的。如你所知，而且我想我們也討論過，主要是在金融線的某些領域，以及在財產險。在這兩個領域，我們把握機會配置了額外的再保，這也讓我們能維持市場存在、為客戶提供服務與保障，同時分散風險。就是在這兩個領域。

And second question, we saw admin expenses actually down year over year again in North America Commercial. And I was hoping to get a sense as to whether there's anything unusual there or this is just technology-based efficiencies.

第二個問題，我們看到北美商業險的管理費用（admin expenses）年比又下降了。我想了解這是否有任何不尋常之處，或只是科技帶來的效率提升。

And let's put the lens beyond North America, look at it globally. And I think that zoom out of a North American, just look at the company as a whole, North America included, our operating expense ratio has been trending lower and continues to improve. Our digital transformation programs and other efficiencies are visibly appearing.

我們把視角放到北美以外，從全球來看。我認為若從北美拉遠一點、看整家公司（包含北美），我們的營運費用率一直在下降，且持續改善。我們的數位轉型計畫與其他效率提升已明顯反映出來。

And that's all around employing foundational tech and data and smart layer of technology, algorithmic, large language, and agentic-related. And we're on track in terms of the medium and longer-term efficiencies and an improvement to our competitive profile, which goes beyond efficiencies that we have described in the past.

而這一切都圍繞著運用基礎技術與數據，以及更智慧的一層技術——演算法、大型語言模型，以及與代理式（agentic）相關的能力。就中期與長期效率而言，我們正按計畫推進，同時也在改善我們的競爭態勢，而這種改善不僅僅是我們過去所描述的效率提升。

And by the way, it's impacting underwriting. It's impacting marketing, claims, finance, sales, all areas of the company, and it's impacting broadly across the globe.

順帶一提，這也正在影響核保。它正在影響行銷、理賠、財務、銷售——公司各個領域——而且在全球範圍內都產生廣泛影響。

Matthew Heimermann, Citi.

Matthew Heimermann，花旗。

I guess, Evan, I'd appreciate your perspective on the current debate related to coverage for AI liability, which from my perspective seems quite nuanced. Although the brokers seem to suggest the status quo is quite reasonable. So maybe more specifically, how to think about the utility of new standalone rates and forms versus simply incremental changes to language or sublimits in existing forms versus no changes at all?

Evan，我想聽聽你對目前關於 AI 責任保險承保範圍之辯論的看法；在我看來，這個議題相當細緻複雜。儘管經紀商似乎認為維持現狀相當合理。所以更具體地說，該如何看待推出新的獨立費率與條款（standalone rates and forms）的效用，相較於僅在既有條款中做語句或分項限額（sublimits）的增量調整，或甚至完全不做任何改變？

Yeah. Thank you for that question. Look, AI liability, it's all over the papers generally. It's emerging as a topic beyond the insurance industry. And AI liability is a growing and emerging exposure that is not contemplated in casualty underwriting really to date. And it needs to be understood. It needs to be managed, and it needs to be addressed. That's what we call underwriting, and that's what the insurance company does.

是的。謝謝你的問題。你看，AI 責任一般來說在媒體上到處都是。它正成為保險業之外也在關注的議題。而 AI 責任是一項正在成長、正在浮現的曝險，迄今在意外險核保中其實並未被真正納入考量。它需要被理解。需要被管理，也需要被處理。這就是我們所說的核保，也是保險公司所做的事。

In managing the risk, I imagine we're going to have a combination of coverage clarifications ultimately, exclusions, and separate AI-related liability coverages. This will all emerge along with underwriting and pricing to discern between risks. AI-related liability exposures will vary between insureds and type of insureds.

在風險管理上，我想最終會是多種手段的組合：承保範圍的釐清、除外責任，以及獨立的 AI 相關責任保險保障。這些都會隨著核保與定價一同逐步形成，用以區分不同風險。不同被保險人以及不同類型的被保險人，其 AI 相關責任曝險會有所差異。

And frankly, when you think beyond that to assist business generally and add to greater certainty overall in the liability environment as it emerges, I can imagine a regimen around model certification standards emerging. I can imagine best practices in management and governance of AI and agentics emerging quickly and evolving from there, and these will be tools that will also assist in insurance underwriting.

坦白說，若再往外延伸，為了在責任環境逐步成形的過程中協助企業整體運作、並提升整體確定性，我可以想像會出現一套圍繞模型認證標準的制度。我也可以想像 AI 與代理式系統（agentics）的管理與治理最佳實務會快速浮現並持續演進；而這些也將成為協助保險核保的工具。

So while that's a mouthful, I think that gives you all the elements of how the industry will approach and address AI liability. As an industry, we have to put our arms around this. And frankly, we've had to do this with emerging liabilities over the last 50 years, and there's a pretty good template to follow.

所以雖然內容很多，但我認為這涵蓋了產業將如何看待並處理 AI 責任的所有要素。作為一個產業，我們必須把這件事掌握住。坦白說，過去 50 年我們面對新興責任風險時也一直在做同樣的事，而且有一個相當好的範本可以遵循。

Thank you for that. There's a number of follow-ups I would love to explore on that, but I think in the interest of time and other topics, I wonder if you or Peter could clarify just in the Asia life production this quarter, was there anything either in the quarter or the prior year quarter that was impacting the comps there?

謝謝。我還有不少後續問題想深入，但考量時間與其他議題，我想請你或 Peter 說明一下：本季亞洲壽險新契約產能（production）方面，無論是本季或去年同期，是否有任何因素影響了同比比較？

And just relative to whatever you think the underlying expectation for us should be with historically it's been pretty strong production.

以及就你認為我們應該採用的基礎預期而言——因為歷史上這一塊的產能一直相當強勁——你會怎麼看？

Yeah. In the third quarter -- sorry, this is Peter. In the third quarter of '25, there was an acquisition of effectively a closed block of business in New Zealand. We disclosed that the impact is approximately 8%, so the production really is more like 10.5% on a comparable basis for net written premium, which we think is more at a normal level. It was well over $100 million last year.

好的。在 25 年第三季——抱歉，我是 Peter。在 25 年第三季，我們在紐西蘭收購了實質上是一個封閉式業務組合（closed block of business）。我們已揭露其影響約為 8%，因此若以可比基礎來看，淨簽單保費（net written premium）的產能其實更接近 10.5%，我們認為這更接近正常水準。去年該項金額超過 1 億美元。

It's very large. And we disclosed that.

規模非常大。而我們也已經揭露過。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith，瑞銀。

Evan, first question, I'm wondering if you could unpack your comments about the improving growth in North America Commercial a little bit. Is it because the headwinds in property are going away? Or are there really now emerging opportunities in the North America Commercial business?

Evan，第一個問題，我想請你更詳細拆解一下你對北美商業險（North America Commercial）成長改善的評論。這是因為財產險（property）的逆風正在消退嗎？還是北美商業險業務現在確實出現了新的機會？

I think it's a combination of both. The negative impact from the actions that we have taken will diminish. And areas of opportunity, the impact of those will increase, middle, and small commercial in particular. But our advantages from product breadth, local geography, massive capabilities up and down the chain from largest companies to small business.

我認為兩者兼具。我們所採取行動帶來的負面影響會逐步減弱。而機會領域的影響會增加，尤其是中型與小型商業險。此外，我們在產品廣度、在地化布局，以及從大型企業到小型企業、上下游全鏈條的龐大能力方面，都具備優勢。

And our data and technology and the power of it, that continues to emerge in spite of and of course in context of soft market. So I see it between diminishing headwinds and our own opportunities.

再加上我們的數據與科技，以及其帶來的力量，即使在（並且當然是在）市場走軟的背景下，仍持續顯現成效。所以我看到的是：一方面逆風在減弱，另一方面我們自身的機會在增加。

Great, thanks. And then my follow-up question, just curious, Evan, can we get your perspective on some of this alternative capital that continues to kind of come into the industry, particularly as it relates to casualty sidecars and some of these broker facilities? Is this something you see having an impact on market conditions here and going forward?

很好，謝謝。接著我的追問是，Evan，我想聽聽你對持續流入產業的替代資本（alternative capital）的看法，特別是與意外險 sidecar 以及一些經紀商平台（broker facilities）相關的部分。你認為這會對目前以及未來的市場狀況造成影響嗎？

Well, of course. There's a -- what drives cycles in insurance is supply and demand. And so sidecars and broker facilities, blind follow facilities, more MGAs with capital behind them other than professional insurance and frankly a lot with professional insurance behind it. This is all throwing out of balance the supply relative to demand, and it's a lot of very naive capacity.

當然會。保險循環的驅動因素是供需。因此，sidecar 與經紀商平台、盲跟隨（blind follow）平台、更多背後有資本支持的 MGA——不僅是專業保險資本，坦白說也有很多是由專業保險資本在背後支持——這些都在打破供需平衡，而且其中有大量非常天真的承保能力（capacity）。

And even where it's other than traditional insurance, it's investor capital, there's two brands of it to me. There's one brand where they're cleverly going to make a trade even in casualty sidecars. And they're going to try to pass or they have it arranged to pass the tail back to the carrier that's fronting it, who's going to end up holding the trash. And they may make a turn.

即便是非傳統保險的投資人資本，在我看來也有兩種型態。其中一種是他們很精明地想做一筆交易，即使是在意外險 sidecar 上。他們會嘗試把長尾風險（tail）轉嫁出去，或是已安排把長尾風險回傳給出單的承保公司（fronting carrier），最後由後者承擔那些爛帳（trash）。而他們可能會賺到一輪（make a turn）。

On the other hand, I think a lot of that clever capital doesn't understand. The pricing versus the loss cost environment. And I don't think they're going to end up making the turn that they think they might make.

另一方面，我認為很多這類精明資本其實並不理解。定價與損失成本環境之間的關係。我不認為他們最後能像自己以為的那樣賺到那一輪。

But in a world -- we've been living in a world where the cost of money is cheap, and there's a lot of money looking for absolute return, not risk adjusted. As you know, generally the world is beginning to change that way. But in the meantime, a lot of it has found its way or a fraction of it has found its way into insurance as sort of an alternative investment asset class.

但在一個——我們一直生活在一個資金成本很便宜的世界裡，而且有大量資金在尋求絕對報酬，而不是風險調整後報酬。如你所知，整體世界正開始朝不同方向改變。但在此之前，其中不少資金，或其中一部分，已流入保險業，作為某種替代投資資產類別。

It has different forms now than we've seen to some degree in the past, but the themes are the same.

它現在呈現的形式與過去某種程度上不同，但主題是一樣的。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

Bob Huang，摩根士丹利。

I'd like to kind of unpack a little bit about your commentaries around overseas general insurance. Notice that several countries when you called out were in Asia for the quarter, specifically Thailand and such. Just given the prolonged conflict in Iran and just oil price volatility has been fairly long-lasting so far, can you maybe help us think about your view on Asia opportunities and has that changed over the year so far in 2026? Just curious how you think about the go forward there first.

我想稍微拆解一下你對海外一般保險（overseas general insurance）的評論。注意到你本季點名的幾個國家有不少在亞洲，特別是泰國之類。考量伊朗的長期衝突，以及油價波動至今仍相當持久，你能否協助我們理解你對亞洲機會的看法？以及在 2026 年截至目前，這個看法是否有改變？我先好奇你對未來走向的看法。

Yeah, Bob, thank you. First of all, the countries that I cited, that was in the life business. I didn't cite countries in overseas general P&C. But if I did, I would cite those plus even a larger number of countries. I just returned with my colleagues from two weeks in Asia. We were through Southeast Asia, China, and Korea.

好的，Bob，謝謝。首先，我剛才提到的那些國家是在壽險業務。我並沒有在海外一般財產與意外險（P&C）中點名國家。但如果要點名，我會提到那些國家，甚至還會提更多國家。我剛和同事從亞洲兩週行程回來。我們走訪了東南亞、中國與韓國。

So let me help you with your model. There are two regions of the world that are really growing right now more exceptionally. That is North America, particularly the United States and Asia. And when you look at the growth in Asia, Southeast Asia, Korea, Taiwan, a lot of it is tied to the US capital investment.

那我來協助你完善你的模型。目前全球有兩個地區的成長特別突出。那就是北美，尤其是美國，以及亞洲。而當你看亞洲的成長——東南亞、韓國、台灣——其中很大一部分都與美國的資本投資相關。

Sort of super cycle that we're in as we build out AI and AI-related infrastructure and invest to remake our economy that way. Asian countries are a beneficiary of that. They're all tied into the supply chain.

我們正處於某種超級循環之中：建置AI與AI相關基礎設施，並投資以此方式重塑我們的經濟。亞洲國家是這股趨勢的受益者。它們都與供應鏈緊密相連。

Asia is growing, and I see sustainability. It varies by country, but the dynamism that I see and the opportunity that presents for Chubb's business, rising middle class, digitization, growth of small and mid-sized businesses. I was in Vietnam. It's a beehive of development.

亞洲在成長，而且我看到其可持續性。各國情況不一，但我看到的活力，以及這為Chubb業務帶來的機會——中產階級崛起、數位化、中小企業成長。我去過越南。那裡的發展就像蜂巢一樣熱絡。

Thailand, overall, though it has its idiosyncrasies related to domestic credit and maybe underperforms the region, Thailand is still very solid. Singapore, Malaysia is growing well. Taiwan, our business in Hong Kong and China in spite of a soft domestic environment, P&C and life is growing double-digit.

泰國整體而言，雖然因國內信貸等因素有其特殊性、可能表現略遜於區域，但泰國仍然非常穩健。新加坡、馬來西亞成長良好。台灣方面，我們在香港與中國的業務，儘管國內環境偏弱，產險與壽險仍以雙位數成長。

The Korean economy, the Korean economy has grown between 3% and 4% right now, again, tied to the supply chain of the United States in particular. So I'm bullish on Asia right now, both medium and longer-term and shorter term. Of course, it has a certain volatility signature to it. Emerging markets do.

韓國經濟目前成長約3%到4%，同樣與美國、尤其是美國的供應鏈相連。所以我現在對亞洲在中期、長期以及短期都偏樂觀。當然，它帶有一定的波動特徵。新興市場本來就是如此。

But overall, our presence, our capabilities, the breadth of our business, the depth of it through countries, I'm very optimistic for Chubb in Asia.

但整體而言，憑藉我們的布局、能力、業務廣度，以及跨各國的深度，我對Chubb在亞洲非常樂觀。

I really appreciate that. Maybe just pivot a little bit. I know you kind of talk about cyber liabilities, but if we were to think about data center investments, data center constructions, right, AI buildout, can you maybe help us talk about your exposure there, just maybe the thoughts on the risk maybe the insurance industry is taking on?

我非常感謝。也許稍微轉個話題。我知道你有談到網路責任，但如果我們思考資料中心投資、資料中心建設，也就是AI建置，你能否協助我們談談你們在那方面的曝險，以及保險業可能正在承擔的風險的一些看法？

Just curious your thoughts there if possible. Thank you.

如果可以的話，想請教你的看法。謝謝。

Well, let's unpack it in a couple ways. Right now, in the cycle of data center development, particularly hyperscalers and medium-sized, we're more in the construction phase with the operation phase more in front of us than behind us. That's to come.

好，我們可以從幾個角度來拆解。就目前資料中心開發的週期而言，特別是超大規模業者（hyperscalers）與中型業者，我們更多仍處於施工階段；營運階段相較之下，更多是在我們前方而非後方。那部分還在後面。

A lot of projects announced, only -- as you know, only a percentage of those are actually shovel in the ground right now and delays due to a combination of things, permitting, energy, labor, supply chain, et cetera.

已宣布的專案很多，但——如你所知——目前真正動工的只是一部分；而延宕是多種因素共同造成的，包括許可審批、能源、勞動力、供應鏈等等。

But we are quite active. We're quite active in the physical property-related construction. We're active in marine, surety. It's a huge opportunity for us in surety. We've written quite a bit, but more important, it's the pipeline of what's outstanding to bind because you don't really bind until the shovel goes in the ground and that's in front of us, as I said, with many projects that are delayed.

但我們參與得相當積極。我們在實體財產相關的工程建設保險上非常活躍。我們也有做海上保險、保證保險（surety）。對我們而言，保證保險是一個巨大的機會。我們已承作了不少，但更重要的是尚待承保綁定（bind）的在手管線，因為通常要等到真正動工才會綁定；而如我所說，許多專案延宕，這些都還在前方。

When you think about values, and I think you're alluding to that in concentration of exposure, we manage it technically no differently than we manage any other concentration of exposure. We manage how much we could imagine that we'd have as a loss from a single event and we imagine that across perils. So it's technical. It's engineering, and I'm comfortable with the way that Chubb is approaching this.

當你想到保額（values），我想你指的是曝險集中度，我們在技術上管理它的方式，與管理任何其他曝險集中度並無不同。我們會管理在單一事件下我們可能想像的最大損失，並且跨各種風險類型（perils）去推演。所以這是技術性的。涉及工程評估，而我對Chubb採取的做法感到放心。

By the way, we're a leader across the board globally in data center development. We have the broadest capabilities.

順帶一提，我們在全球資料中心開發保險領域是全方位的領導者。我們具備最廣泛的能力。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor.

Ryan Tunis，Cantor。

So in North American Commercial, there's been about a point of underlying loss ratio deterioration year-to-date. Is it fair to attribute that magnitude to the impact of pricing versus loss cost trends? Or is there anything else going on there?

在北美商業保險方面，今年迄今基礎損失率大約惡化了1個點。把這個幅度歸因於定價相對於損失成本趨勢的影響，這樣說公平嗎？還是那裡還有其他因素？

No, I wouldn't say that it's a reduction in property, period.

不，我不會說那是財產險的下滑所致，並非那樣。

So there's a mix shift element?

所以是組合結構變化（mix shift）的因素？

That's all it is. You've seen the reduction in property. And so property as a percentage is down. That's the whole loss ratio difference.

就是這個原因。你已經看到財產險的縮減。因此財產險占比下降。這就是損失率差異的全部原因。

And I guess relatedly, just as a follow-up, Overseas General, we're not seeing a deterioration dynamic so far year-to-date. So just curious on color around the stability there, just given the pricing environment.

我想相關地追問一下，海外一般保險（Overseas General）今年迄今我們還沒看到惡化的動態。在目前的定價環境下，想請你談談那邊穩定性的原因。

Well, there is no one pricing environment in overseas general. Overseas general insures the world. It's throughout Europe. It's throughout the UK. Europe is more stable than the UK is, our growth in middle and small commercial business throughout the globe.

嗯，海外一般保險並不存在單一的定價環境。海外一般保險承保的是全球。涵蓋整個歐洲。也涵蓋整個英國。歐洲比英國更穩定；我們在全球的中小型商業保險業務也在成長。

Latin America goes to a different beat than Europe or the UK does. And it varies by country. And again, it's more middle and small commercial for us there.

拉丁美洲的節奏與歐洲或英國不同。而且各國差異很大。同樣地，對我們而言那裡更多是中型與小型商業保險。

And then the same with Asia Pacific. And so that's one part of the story. But the other part of the story, which I think is more important, is the balance between consumer and commercial within Overseas General. Consumer is growing more quickly. The size of the consumer business relative to the commercial business.

亞太也是一樣。所以這是故事的一部分。但我認為更重要的另一部分，是海外一般保險內部在消費者與商業之間的平衡。消費者業務成長更快。也就是消費者業務相對於商業業務的規模占比。

So large account is only a piece. And when you get to the consumer, when you get the balance, which most of overseas general and commercial is mid and small, and then you get to the consumer side, which is half the business, it's accident and health, which grew -- by the way, globally our A&H business grew at about 6% this quarter.

所以大型帳戶只是一部分。而當你看到消費者端、看到這個平衡——海外一般保險與商業保險的大多數其實是中小型，接著到消費者端（占一半業務）——那是意外與健康險（A&H）。順帶一提，我們全球A&H業務本季成長約6%。

It's personal lines overseas, which is everything from automobile insurance in Mexico, where we're the number three writer, insuring over 2 million autos to insuring cell phones and computers. In Asia and automobile in Thailand and Malaysia and homeowners and high net worth insurance in Australia and the UK, it's a variety of opportunities in a huge world out there where we have fabulous capability.

還有海外個人險（personal lines），涵蓋從墨西哥的汽車保險——我們是第三大承保人，承保超過200萬輛汽車——到手機與電腦的保險。在亞洲，以及泰國與馬來西亞的汽車保險，還有澳洲與英國的住宅險與高淨值保險。這是在一個龐大世界裡的多元機會，而我們具備卓越的能力。

So our direct marketing business in Asia and Latin America, we are the largest direct marketers of insurance digitally and by phone of consumer businesses up and down the chain, as I explained it, from lower middle-income people to middle middle-income.

因此，我們在亞洲與拉丁美洲的直效行銷業務方面，我們是最大的保險直效行銷商之一，透過數位與電話，面向我剛才所說的消費者業務全鏈條，從中低收入族群到中等收入族群。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

High net worth personal lines, again, a spectacular quarter, premiums up over 5%, combined reported at 60%. Any changes, Evan, in the competitive landscape with these types of returns with AI coming into the picture? I mean, do you see these kinds of results as sustainable over the intermediate to long term?

高淨值個人險再次交出非常亮眼的一季，保費成長超過5%，合併比率（combined）報告為60%。Evan，隨著AI進入市場，在這類回報之下，競爭格局有任何變化嗎？我的意思是，你認為這樣的結果在中期到長期是可持續的嗎？

I do. High net worth is and the business we do, it's not about the price you charge as much as it is about the richness of the coverage and the services you provide. It's about the complexity of those coverages. It's really like selling a small commercial or middle-sized commercial account in the management of it. This is not something you buy over the internet or some agentic shops for you for insurance.

我同意。高淨值客群以及我們所做的業務，重點不在於你收取的價格，而更在於你提供的保障範圍有多豐富、服務有多到位。重點在於這些保障的複雜度。這真的很像在銷售一個小型商業或中型商業帳戶，以及後續的管理。這不是你在網路上就能買到的東西，也不是某些代理型店家替你隨便找個保險就能解決的。

This is far more bespoke, and it is a trust business. It is an agent-driven business and relationship business between the customer and us. This is not a trade. These are our customers, our long-term clients. So I start with that. Yes, there are always cyclical competitive pressures that emerge because cat reinsurance becomes cheaper, per risk insurance becomes cheaper.

這要更高度客製化，而且是一門信任的生意。這是由代理人驅動的業務，也是客戶與我們之間的關係型業務。這不是一筆交易。這些是我們的客戶、我們的長期客戶。所以我先從這點說起。是的，總會有週期性的競爭壓力出現，因為巨災再保險變便宜了、按風險計價的保險也變便宜了。

And so competitors may employ more of that to chase business at a cheaper price on the margin. But overall, I see steady as she goes with some variability now and again, and that's it.

因此競爭對手可能會更多運用這些，在邊際上用更低的價格去追逐業務。但整體而言，我看到的是大致維持穩定、偶爾有些波動，就這樣。

Got it. And then just moving over to reserve adequacy and prior year development was also spectacular. But in the long-term lines, I think Peter called out $13 million adverse. Could you share with us any color on the, say, 21 to 25 accident years and just your general confidence going forward in longer tail lines and how adequate those reserves are?

了解。接著談到準備金充足性與前期年度發展也非常亮眼。但在長尾險種方面，我想 Peter 提到有 1,300 萬美元的不利發展。你能否就例如 21 到 25 事故年度提供一些說明，以及你對未來長尾險種的一般信心、以及那些準備金有多充足？

Yeah. And thank you for that question. Look, as Peter said, I've repeated it ad nauseum. We're slow over the years. We're slow to recognize favorable development but very quick to recognize adverse. Casualty underwriting is not for optimists. And as you know, the stinger is in the tail in development.

好的，謝謝你的問題。你看，正如 Peter 說的，我已經反覆講到大家都聽膩了。多年來我們一向偏保守。我們對有利發展的認列很慢，但對不利發展的認列非常快。意外險種的核保不是給樂觀主義者做的。而且你也知道，準備金發展的「刺」往往在尾端。

The more recent accident years, while they may be developing more favorably, they're green. We wouldn't touch them. While the development that we did see was in more older accident years and think more '19 to '22. And by the way, the amount was reasonably modest. When I look at our overall reserves as a percentage, it was very small. I think that maybe gives you the kind of color you're looking for.

較近期的事故年度，即便可能呈現較有利的發展，它們仍然很「新」。我們不會去動它們。我們看到的發展主要是在較早期的事故年度，偏向 '19 到 '22。順帶一提，金額其實相當溫和。以我們整體準備金的占比來看，這非常小。我想這大概就是你想要的那種補充說明。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

The market yield rose to 6.2% from 5.5% in June, and you exxtended your duration 5 years from 4.8 years. So that's remarkable. I'm wondering what your expectations are on adjusted net investment income going forward. I thought I would ask, since this is the second quarter, we stopped getting guide for that.

市場殖利率從 6 月的 5.5% 上升到 6.2%，而你們也把存續期間從 4.8 年延長到 5 年。這很顯著。我想請問你們對未來調整後淨投資收益（adjusted net investment income）的預期。我之所以問，是因為這是第二季，我們已經不再拿到這方面的指引了。

Tracy, it's Peter. And as you just said, we're not providing specific guidance. The way I'd frame it is the reinvestment environment, as Evan said in his speech, is much more attractive. When you look at this quarter's results, how I'd frame it as we had extremely strong performance of fixed income related net investment income and alternative, in particular PE, was actually less than what might be normal. And as you know, it's very, very volatile, that specific asset class.

Tracy，我是 Peter。如你剛才所說，我們不提供具體指引。我的說法是：如 Evan 在發言中提到的，再投資環境變得更具吸引力。看本季的結果，我會這樣描述：固定收益相關的淨投資收益表現極強，而另類投資，特別是私募股權（PE），實際上低於可能的常態水準。而你也知道，那個特定資產類別的波動非常、非常大。

And so over time, we're confident that will continue to return well. So with that at the backdrop, I think you can have a perspective around certainly the fixed income piece of this continuing to grow.

因此從時間拉長來看，我們有信心它仍會持續帶來良好回報。在這樣的背景下，我認為你可以形成一個看法：至少固定收益這一塊應該會持續成長。

Maybe just a quick follow-up. I know Brian had touched on this in the beginning of the questions about the North American and commercial growth improving materially in future quarters. But maybe you could just unpack the glide path there. I'm wondering how much of the finishing line you've reached in terms of the underwriting actions you're taking in financial lines and large account property.

再快速追問一下。我知道 Brian 在問答一開始提到，北美與商業險的成長在未來幾季會明顯改善。但你能否拆解一下那個路徑（glide path）？我想了解你們在金融險種與大型帳戶財產險所採取的核保措施，現在大概走到什麼程度、離終點線還有多遠？

Nice try, Tracy. I gave as much as I'm going to give on that.

Tracy，想套話啊。我在那件事上能講的就到這裡了。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

Gregory Peters，Raymond James。

So stepping back to the technology piece, it seems like with some rising frequency, we keep hearing about security protocols being violated, breaching of data security, et cetera, you're managing a global enterprise, your data assets are unique and special to your company. Maybe you could just give us some perspective on how you're managing the data securities, large language models and these other tools are out there? And how are you protecting your data assets?

回到科技這一塊，似乎越來越常聽到安全協議被破壞、資料安全遭到入侵等等。你們在管理一家全球性企業，你們的資料資產對公司而言獨特且重要。你能否談談你們如何管理資料安全？現在有大型語言模型以及其他工具在外面。你們如何保護你們的資料資產？

Yeah. We're employing all of the best practices around governance and management of not simply our data, but the tools that we employ at the smart layer, which is algorithmic but more to the point large language model and agentics and how we control and limit what they can do, where they can do it, how they can do it, how we instruct for it, and then protecting our own perimeter and multiple layers of detection and defense against third-party or external use of agentics and AI that could imperil Chubb's own data or systems.

是的。我們採用所有關於治理與管理的最佳實務，不僅是針對我們的資料，也包括我們在智慧層（smart layer）所使用的工具；那一層是演算法驅動，但更重要的是大型語言模型與代理式系統（agentics），以及我們如何控制與限制它們能做什麼、在哪裡做、怎麼做、我們如何下達指令，並且保護我們自身的邊界，透過多層偵測與防禦，防範第三方或外部使用代理式系統與 AI，進而危及 Chubb 自身的資料或系統。

We invest significantly in this. We pay very close attention to it. It's fundamental to how we think. And by the way, and to give you a sense, it's evolved over a long period of time. Think about actuarial models. Before AI, we've always had to employ model management for a regulatory point of view and for our own use to create governance and management over the efficacy of those models, traditional math.

我們在這方面投入相當多資源。我們非常密切地關注。這是我們思考方式的基礎。順帶一提，讓你了解一下，它是長期演進而來的。想想精算模型。在 AI 出現之前，從監理角度以及我們自身使用的角度，我們一直都必須做模型管理，建立治理與管理機制，以確保那些模型（傳統數學）的有效性。

As those evolve past algorithmic and to AI related, we have used the same template and the same governance processes, we've improved the tools. We've improved the techniques that we use and the automation and humans in the loop to manage all of that. And it continues. The harnesses and our ability to provide instruction precisely all continues to evolve.

當它們從演算法進一步演進到 AI 相關時，我們沿用同樣的框架與治理流程，同時也強化了工具。我們改進了所使用的技術與自動化，並採用「人類在迴路中」（humans in the loop）來管理這一切。而且這仍在持續。這些防護機制（harnesses）以及我們精準下達指令的能力，都在不斷演進。

I guess it's kind of building on the comments you've made, but I think about everything that's going on and the new money rates jumping up over 100 basis points from where you were, where it currently is in your book yield. And you mentioned naive capital, there's these facilities. There's these casualty sidecars.

我想這算是延伸你剛才的評論，但我在想，考量目前發生的一切，以及新資金利率（new money rates）相較你們當時的水準跳升了超過 100 個基點，而目前也高於你們投資組合的帳面殖利率（book yield）。你提到天真資本（naive capital），也有這些融資工具（facilities）。還有這些意外險 sidecar。

Do you think it's possible that we could be pivoting to an environment where we're sort of cash flow underwriting on casualty and longer-tail liability business considering that these inflationary pressures and higher interest rates?

你認為我們是否可能正在轉向一種環境：在意外險與較長尾的責任險業務上，因為通膨壓力與較高利率，而某種程度變成以現金流核保（cash flow underwriting）？

I think only on the margin. When I look at loss cost inflation versus new money rates and I look at pricing, it's not hard for me to work out the math. You're not cash flow underwriting at a 10% or 12% interest rate.

我認為只會在邊際上。當我把損失成本通膨（loss cost inflation）與新資金利率放在一起看，再看定價，我不難算出這筆帳。在 10% 或 12% 的利率水準下，你才不是在做現金流核保。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

David Motemaden，Evercore ISI。

Just a question on North America Commercial. So Evan, you've talked a bit this call and in the Qs just on how the property growth or the mix change from property is driving the margin or the loss ratio deterioration there. I guess with that drag, I guess abating a little bit, how should we think about the margin trajectory from here?

想請教一下北美商業保險。Evan，你在本次電話會議以及問答中談到一些，關於財產保險的成長或財產組合變化如何推動那邊的利潤率或損失率惡化。我想隨著那股拖累稍微減輕，我們應該如何看待接下來的利潤率走勢？

I don't give guidance on margins, but I feel very good about our margins. And I feel, as you saw in the commentary, our sustainability of value creation, which includes margin, I feel very good about it. But I'm not going to give you more than that, David.

我不提供利潤率指引，但我對我們的利潤率感到非常有信心。而且我覺得，如同你在評論中看到的，我們價值創造的可持續性（其中包含利潤率），我也非常有信心。但我不會再多說了，David。

Yeah, worth a shot.

好吧，值得一試。

And by the way, you would be well served as others would not to simply over obsess about North America Commercial and consider all of that in the round as one company and then imagine all the handles to pull.

順帶一提，你會發現，跟其他人一樣，你最好不要過度執著於北美商業保險，而是把整體放在同一家公司、整體盤面來看，然後想像有哪些槓桿可以運用。

Yeah. No, I hear you on that. Maybe just following up here, the growth has moderated a bit just for the company overall, still solid, but it has slowed a bit. Capital return, if I look at it, it's unchanged year-on-year roughly at least on the buyback, how are you thinking about capital allocation here and just given the current market environment?

是的。我明白你的意思。那我再追問一下，整體公司層面的成長已稍微趨緩，仍然穩健，但確實慢了一點。資本回饋方面，如果我看起來，至少在庫藏股回購上，年對年大致沒有變化；在目前的市場環境下，你們如何思考資本配置？

Peter is going to answer a part of that and then I'm going to come back and actually answer probably another part.

Peter 會先回答其中一部分，然後我會再回來，實際上可能回答另一部分。

David, we've been pretty consistent around preserving capital for risk and opportunity, if you look back over the last while and it hasn't really changed this year, you saw our buyback ticked up this quarter, we've been returning in the range of half, 50%. And that's not a rule we have. It's an outcome, but look, we look at the investment environment and think it's really, really strong.

David，我們一直相當一致地強調為風險與機會保留資本；如果你回顧過去一段時間，其實今年也沒有真正改變。你看到我們本季回購略有增加，我們回饋大約落在一半、50% 的區間。這不是我們的硬性規則。這是一個結果；但你看，我們觀察投資環境，認為它非常、非常強勁。

And so we think about our capital in terms of return to shareholders. We also think about how we can deploy it in our insurance business and in particular right now in our investment business, which includes both the current, of course, fixed income environment as well as our alt strategy, which is very differentiated.

因此我們從資本回饋股東的角度來思考資本。我們也思考如何把資本部署在保險業務中，尤其是目前在我們的投資業務上；這包括當前的固定收益環境，當然也包括我們非常具差異化的另類投資策略。

I think that said it all. We're getting paid -- and I want to add this. We're getting paid to hold the capital. And money doesn't burn a hole in our pocket, and there is no event on the horizon related to acquisition or any of that that we know is speculated.

我想這已經把重點都說完了。我們持有資本是有報酬的——我想再補充這點。我們持有資本是有報酬的。而且錢不會在我們口袋裡燒出洞來；就我們所知，市場上臆測的那些與併購相關或其他事件，並沒有任何即將發生的事情在地平線上。

We actually enjoy the invested asset and the growth of it and the accretion to shareholder value that it produces, it is a major part of our business, is our investment business.

我們其實很享受投資資產本身、其成長，以及它帶來的股東價值增厚；投資業務是我們業務中的重要組成部分。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

Alex Scott，巴克萊。

I had one on casualty. We're seeing casualty pricing come under a little bit more pressure and I think maybe for a few quarters been under loss cost trend. Any specific actions that may need to be taken there? I'm just trying to understand if we need to consider that in the context of some of the growth discussion from earlier.

我有一題關於責任險。我們看到責任險定價面臨更大的壓力，而且我想可能已經有幾個季度低於損失成本趨勢。那邊是否需要採取任何特定行動？我只是想了解，是否需要把這點納入先前成長討論的脈絡中考量。

We're underwriters. We write up and down the chain, large companies to small companies, all kinds of industries, all kinds of casualty, from primary to excess to professional to construction. So more types of casualty for more types of industries and more geographies than you probably can imagine.

我們是核保人。我們在整個風險鏈條上下承保，從大型公司到小型公司、各種產業、各類責任險，從主險到超額責任到專業責任到工程建築。所以涵蓋的責任險類型、產業類型與地理區域，可能比你想像的還要多。

And as underwriters, we're conscious of the risk environment, of the loss cost environment, which we then match to terms and pricing, and we're nimble. And I think that probably answers your question. I'm not sure what you're asking me beyond that.

作為核保人，我們會留意風險環境與損失成本環境，並將其對應到條款與定價；我們也很靈活。我想這大概就回答了你的問題。除此之外，我不太確定你還想問我什麼。

That's helpful. Thanks for that. Second question, also growth-related. I heard the comments on small commercial and that continuing to be a good growth focus for you. Could you give us a taste of some of the things you're doing, whether it's expansion of distribution, just any taste of what will propel that growth?

這很有幫助。謝謝。第二題也與成長相關。我聽到你們對小型商業保險的評論，並且它仍會是你們良好的成長重點。你能否讓我們稍微了解一下你們正在做哪些事情？例如擴大通路等；任何能推動該成長的作法都可以。

It's small commercial. It's lower middle market. It's middle market, a combination of a very local geographic reach within countries because that's how it's done, whether it is in North America or frankly it's in Malaysia.

這是小型商業保險。是較低中型市場。是中型市場；它結合了在各國境內非常在地化的地理覆蓋，因為這就是運作方式，不論是在北美，或坦白說在馬來西亞也是如此。

It's the breadth of product. It's our industry practices, which is a real secret sauce for Chubb, where coverages and the amalgamation of coverages are tailored for different industries to their specific needs, industry experts that we have that represent those industries. So that plus technology, the amount of data that we have that give us insight into risk selection and pricing and then the technology to enable the local reach in relationship and a compelling proposition to both quote it quickly, issue it with few questions, service it quickly, match to the human-to-human of agent-to-company relationship on a local basis, that is who Chubb is.

還有產品的廣度。還有我們的產業別經營模式，這是 Chubb 真正的祕密武器：我們會依不同產業的特定需求，量身打造保障內容以及保障的組合；我們也有代表各產業的產業專家。再加上科技：我們擁有大量數據，能讓我們洞察風險選擇與定價；並透過科技來支援在地觸達與關係經營，提供具吸引力的方案，能快速報價、用很少的問題就能出單、快速服務，並在在地層面把「人對人」的代理人與公司關係連結起來——這就是 Chubb。

And the opportunity in that and the scale advantages that we have around that give us for data and for know-how that we can spread around from whether it's the West Coast of the United States to the Southwest of the United States or spreading from Asia to Europe or United States to Europe. Our ability to do that and the scale advantage to invest in technology and use data to inform broadly. That is a hallmark advantage for Chubb that is enduring.

而在這方面的機會，以及我們在規模上的優勢，讓我們在數據與專業知識上具備能力，能夠把這些能力擴散到各地：不論是從美國西岸到美國西南部，或是從亞洲擴展到歐洲，或從美國到歐洲。我們具備這樣的能力，以及能投資科技的規模優勢，並運用數據來廣泛提供洞見。這是 Chubb 一項持久的標誌性優勢。

Thank you. That's all the time that we have today for questions. I will now pass it back over to Susan for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的提問時間就到這裡。我現在把時間交回給 Susan 做結語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we will be around to take your calls. Enjoy the day, and once again, thank you.

感謝各位今天加入我們。如果你有任何後續問題，我們會在這裡接聽你們的來電。祝各位有美好的一天，再次謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。