Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 Fiscal Year 2022 Casey's General Stores Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎來到 2022 財年第四季度凱西百貨公司收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Chad Bruntz. Please go ahead.

我現在想把今天的會議交給你的發言人，查德·布倫茨先生。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss the results for our fourth quarter and fiscal year ended April 30, 2022. I'm Chad Bruntz, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations, filling in for Brian Johnson who is under the weather. With me today are Darren Rebelez, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Bramlage, Chief Financial Officer.

早上好，感謝您加入我們討論截至 2022 年 4 月 30 日的第四季度和財政年度的業績。我是投資者關係高級分析師查德·布倫茨 (Chad Bruntz)，我是布賴恩·約翰遜 (Brian Johnson) 的替補。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Darren Rebelez；和首席財務官 Steve Bramlage。

Before we begin, I will remind you that certain statements made by us during this investor call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements include any statements relating to expectations for future periods, possible or assumed future results of operations, financial conditions, liquidity and related sources or needs, the company's supply chain, business and integration strategies, plans and synergies, growth opportunities, performance at our stores and the potential effects of COVID-19.

在我們開始之前，我會提醒您，我們在本次投資者電話會議期間所做的某些陳述可能構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述包括與未來預期相關的任何陳述期間、可能或假設的未來運營結果、財務狀況、流動性和相關來源或需求、公司的供應鏈、業務和整合戰略、計劃和協同效應、增長機會、我們商店的業績以及 COVID-19 的潛在影響。

There are a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied by those forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the integration of the recent and pending acquisitions, our ability to execute on our strategic plan or to realize benefits from the strategic plan, the impact and duration of the conflict in Ukraine and related governmental actions as well as other risks, uncertainties and factors which are described in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q as filed with the SEC and available on our website.

有許多已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他因素可能導致我們的實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述所表達或暗示的任何未來結果存在重大差異，包括但不限於近期和未決收購、我們執行戰略計劃或從戰略計劃中獲益的能力、烏克蘭衝突的影響和持續時間以及相關政府行動以及我們最近的年度報告中描述的其他風險、不確定性和因素10-K 表格報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告提交給 SEC 並在我們的網站上提供。

Any forward-looking statements made during this call reflect our current views as of today with respect to future events, and Casey's disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

在本次電話會議期間作出的任何前瞻性陳述都反映了我們截至今天對未來事件的當前觀點，並且 Casey's 不承擔任何更新或修改前瞻性陳述的意圖或義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因.

A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures referenced in this call as well as a detailed breakdown of the operating expense increase for the fourth quarter can be found on our website at www.caseys.com under the Investor Relations link.

本次電話會議中引用的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務措施的對賬以及第四季度運營費用增長的詳細明細可在我們的網站 www.caseys.com 的投資者關係鏈接下找到。

With that said, I would now like to turn the call over to Darren to discuss our fourth quarter results. Darren?

話雖如此，我現在想把電話轉給達倫來討論我們第四季度的業績。達倫？

Thanks, Chad, and good morning, everyone. We're looking forward to sharing our results in a moment, but I'd like to start by thanking our 42,000 Casey's team members for their tireless efforts and contribution to a fantastic fiscal year. Our team members have done an outstanding job navigating through these challenging times. And the team's ability to be nimble and perform at a high level under difficult circumstances is something I'm especially proud of and grateful for, and we certainly would not have delivered another record year without their efforts.

謝謝，乍得，大家早上好。我們期待著馬上分享我們的成果，但首先我要感謝我們的 42,000 名凱西團隊成員的不懈努力和對美好財政年度的貢獻。我們的團隊成員在度過這些充滿挑戰的時期做得非常出色。球隊在困難的情況下保持敏捷和高水平表現的能力是我特別自豪和感激的，如果沒有他們的努力，我們當然不會再創造一個創紀錄的一年。

At Casey's, our purpose is to make life better for our communities and guests every day. As a rural Midwestern operator, we play a significant role in the towns we operate in. It is a privilege and responsibility we take to heart. Throughout the fiscal year, we have truly been here for good. We raised $1 million in funds for organizations helping veterans and their families. We raised $1 million to help local schools through our Cash for Classrooms Grant Program, and we enable over 5 million meals for our neighbors in need. We are here for our communities, and we want to give back to those communities and guests that support us.

在 Casey's，我們的目標是讓我們的社區和客人的生活每天都變得更美好。作為中西部農村運營商，我們在我們經營的城鎮中發揮著重要作用。這是我們銘記於心的特權和責任。在整個財政年度，我們真的一直在這裡。我們為幫助退伍軍人及其家人的組織籌集了 100 萬美元的資金。我們通過“課堂現金補助計劃”籌集了 100 萬美元來幫助當地學校，我們為有需要的鄰居提供了超過 500 萬份餐食。我們在這裡是為了我們的社區，我們想回饋那些支持我們的社區和客人。

Now let's discuss the results of the past fiscal year. Fiscal '22 was a record year for diluted EPS finishing at $9.10 per share, a 9% increase from the prior year. The company also generated a record $340 million in net income and $801 million in EBITDA, an increase of 11% from the prior year.

現在讓我們討論上一財年的結果。 '22 財年是每股攤薄收益達到創紀錄的 9.10 美元，比上年增長 9%。該公司還創造了創紀錄的 3.4 億美元的淨收入和 8.01 億美元的 EBITDA，比上年增長 11%。

Inside sales and gross profit were each up 14% versus the prior year as guests return to the store to buy pizza slices and items from our refreshed breakfast menu, among other Casey's favorites. Inside gross profit margins remained flat compared to the prior year, an impressive outcome given the merchandising cost pressures impacting the industry. Inside gross profit grew more than fuel gross profit in fiscal '22, a trend we expect to continue as we add kitchens to our recently acquired stores.

由於客人返回商店購買披薩片和我們更新的早餐菜單中的物品，以及其他凱西的最愛，內部銷售額和毛利潤均比上一年增長 14%。內部毛利率與上年相比持平，考慮到影響行業的銷售成本壓力，這是一個令人印象深刻的結果。在 22 財年，內部毛利潤的增長超過了燃料毛利潤，隨著我們在最近收購的商店中增加廚房，我們預計這一趨勢將繼續下去。

Total fuel gallons sold increased 18% in the fiscal year, and fuel gross profit increased 22%, averaging a $0.36 per gallon margin over the course of the year despite rising fuel prices as consumer demand improved. Free cash flow was an impressive $462 million, proving that we can grow the business while preserving the balance sheet.

本財年銷售的燃料加侖總量增長了 18%，燃料毛利潤增長了 22%，全年平均每加侖利潤率為 0.36 美元，儘管隨著消費者需求的改善，燃料價格上漲。自由現金流達到了令人印象深刻的 4.62 億美元，證明我們可以在保持資產負債表的同時發展業務。

We closed 3 large strategic acquisitions that were a significant part of the 228 new units opened this year. Through these acquisitions, we have strengthened our presence in the Nebraska and Illinois markets through the Bucky's acquisition and acquired immediate scale in the Oklahoma City and Knoxville, Tennessee markets with the Circle K and Pilot acquisitions, respectively. These acquisitions also fit seamlessly into our existing distribution network with the addition of our third DC in Joplin, Missouri in May of 2021 and continued our expansion into the Southwest portion of our footprint. We're excited about the strong progress we've made integrating all 3 strategic acquisitions and realized approximately $15 million in run rate synergies on the Bucky's acquisition this year.

我們完成了 3 項大型戰略收購，這些收購是今年開設的 228 家新單位的重要組成部分。通過這些收購，我們通過收購 Bucky 加強了我們在內布拉斯加州和伊利諾伊州市場的影響力，並分別通過 Circle K 和 Pilot 收購在俄克拉荷馬城和田納西州諾克斯維爾市場獲得了直接的規模。這些收購也無縫融入我們現有的分銷網絡，並於 2021 年 5 月在密蘇里州喬普林增加了我們的第三個配送中心，並繼續將我們的業務擴展到西南部分。我們對整合所有 3 項戰略收購取得的強勁進展感到興奮，並在今年對 Bucky 的收購實現了約 1500 萬美元的運行率協同效應。

Casey's Rewards continues to grow and has become a significant part of our guest experience. We recently exceeded 5 million members and are poised to leverage this platform to communicate with our guests more effectively than ever. Our private brand program exited the quarter at 5% penetration of the grocery and general merchandise category. We currently offer over 250 items and are confident in our ability to achieve 6% penetration next year and our long-term goal of 10% over the next several years.

Casey's Rewards 不斷增長，已成為我們賓客體驗的重要組成部分。我們最近超過 500 萬會員，並準備利用這個平台比以往更有效地與我們的客人溝通。我們的自有品牌計劃在本季度以 5% 的雜貨和日用品滲透率退出。我們目前提供超過 250 種產品，並有信心在明年實現 6% 的滲透率以及未來幾年實現 10% 的長期目標。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Steve to discuss the fourth quarter and our outlook for fiscal '23. Steve?

我現在想把電話轉給史蒂夫，討論第四季度和我們對 23 財年的展望。史蒂夫?

Thank you, Darren, and good morning. Before I jump into the financials, I would also like to take a minute to acknowledge the entire team, given the strong performance both in the quarter and for the record-breaking fiscal year. The excellent financial results wouldn't have been possible without their hard work and dedication.

謝謝你，達倫，早上好。鑑於本季度和創紀錄的財政年度的強勁表現，在我開始討論財務之前，我還想花一點時間感謝整個團隊。沒有他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，就不可能取得優異的財務業績。

The fourth quarter was the first one where we are fully consolidating the results from all 3 of the significant acquisitions that we closed this year. And it's easy to see the impact of the unit growth along with the strong mothership execution on our total results in the quarter.

第四季度是我們全面整合我們今年完成的所有三項重大收購的結果的第一個季度。很容易看出單位增長以及強大的母艦執行對我們本季度的總業績的影響。

Here are just a few examples to help contextualize the magnitude. Total fuel gallons sold rose by almost 86 million gallons or 16%. Total inside sales revenue rose over $120 million or 14%. Total revenue for the quarter was approximately $3.5 billion, which is an increase of $1.1 billion or 45% from the prior year. Now in addition to the increase in gallons sold and inside sales, higher retail prices of fuel contributed to this increase as well.

這裡僅舉幾個例子，以幫助了解規模。銷售的燃料加侖總量增加了近 8600 萬加侖或 16%。內部銷售總收入增長超過 1.2 億美元或 14%。本季度總收入約為 35 億美元，比上年增加 11 億美元或 45%。現在，除了銷售的加侖數和內部銷售量的增加外，燃料零售價格的上漲也促成了這一增長。

Total gross profit rose $96 million or 17%. This exceeded the rise in total operating expenses of $65 million or 15%. And as a result, total EBITDA rose $31 million or 23%. Diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $1.60, which is up 43% from the prior year. While the new units had a significant influence on our overall results, it's important to highlight the healthy performance of our existing fleet this quarter.

總毛利增長 9600 萬美元或 17%。這超過了總運營費用 6500 萬美元或 15% 的增幅。結果，EBITDA 總額增加了 3100 萬美元或 23%。第四季度每股攤薄收益為 1.60 美元，比去年同期增長 43%。儘管新機組對我們的整體業績產生了重大影響，但重要的是要強調本季度我們現有機隊的健康表現。

Same-store sales were strong for both inside sales and fuel as guest traffic continued to improve. Inside same-store sales were up 5.2%, while fuel gallons increased 1.5%. Our inside margin decreased 50 basis points versus the prior year, primarily due to wholesale cost inflation, and that was partially offset by retail price increases.

由於客流量持續改善，內部銷售和燃料的同店銷售均表現強勁。內部同店銷售額增長 5.2%，而燃料加侖增長 1.5%。我們的內部利潤率與去年相比下降了 50 個基點，主要是由於批發成本上漲，而這部分被零售價格上漲所抵消。

It was a very strong quarter by all accounts, but it didn't quite reach the level that we had anticipated at the time of our most recent business update. The end of April proved to be quite volatile in terms of fuel cost, and ultimately, we finished several million dollars or about $0.01 a gallon below our expected fuel profitability level through the quarter.

從所有方面來看，這是一個非常強勁的季度，但並沒有完全達到我們在最近一次業務更新時所預期的水平。事實證明，4 月底的燃料成本波動很大，最終，我們在整個季度的預期燃料盈利水平低了幾百萬美元或每加侖約 0.01 美元。

Total inside sales rose 13.6% from the prior year to $1 billion with an average margin of 39.4%. For the quarter, total grocery and general merchandise sales increased by $94 million to $744 million, which is an increase of 14.5%. And total prepared food and dispensed beverage sales rose by $30 million to $293 million, an increase of 11.3%.

內部銷售總額較上年增長 13.6% 至 10 億美元，平均利潤率為 39.4%。本季度，雜貨和日用品總銷售額增加了 9400 萬美元，達到 7.44 億美元，增幅為 14.5%。預製食品和分配飲料的總銷售額增長了 3000 萬美元，達到 2.93 億美元，增長了 11.3%。

Same-store grocery and general merchandise sales were up 4.3%, and the average margin was 32.5%, which is an increase of 70 basis points from the same period a year ago. The merchandising team continues to do an excellent job staying ahead of inflation in the center of our stores.

同店雜貨和日用百貨銷售額增長 4.3%，平均利潤率為 32.5%，比去年同期增長 70 個基點。在我們商店的中心，商品銷售團隊繼續出色地保持領先於通貨膨脹。

Sales were particularly strong in our nonalcoholic and alcoholic beverages, and we experienced a favorable mix shift in these categories as single-serve and smaller package sizes outperformed. Nonalcoholic beverages in total were up over 32% on a 2-year stack basis. Alcohol same-store sales were up high single digits and up over 18% on a 2-year stack basis. Same-store prepared food and dispensed beverage sales were up 7.6% for the quarter. The average margin for the quarter was 56.9%, which is down 320 basis points from a year ago.

我們的非酒精和酒精飲料的銷售尤其強勁，我們在這些類別中經歷了有利的混合轉變，因為單份和較小的包裝尺寸表現出色。在 2 年的基礎上，非酒精飲料的總漲幅超過 32%。酒類同店銷售額增長了高個位數，在 2 年的基礎上增長了 18% 以上。本季度同店預製食品和配給飲料的銷售額增長了 7.6%。本季度的平均利潤率為 56.9%，比一年前下降了 320 個基點。

Pizza slices continue to perform well, up 21% for the quarter, while hot breakfast sandwiches were up close to 41% as part of the company's breakfast menu relaunch that began in September. Margin has been adversely impacted by cost increases in our food ingredients, partially offset by menu price increases, along with an uptick in waste as stores kept the warmers full of grab-and-go items to keep up with the higher demand.

比薩片繼續表現良好，本季度增長了 21%，而作為該公司從 9 月開始的早餐菜單重新推出的一部分，熱早餐三明治增長了近 41%。利潤率受到我們食品配料成本上漲的不利影響，部分被菜單價格上漲所抵消，同時浪費增加，因為商店讓取暖器裝滿了隨取隨用的物品，以跟上更高的需求。

Cheese costs were meaningfully higher than the prior quarter, up $0.33 per pound to $2.26. The adverse impact of higher cheese to gross profit was about $3.5 million or 118 basis points on margin. We took a further series of price increases in the middle of the quarter and another round at the start of fiscal '23 to further offset these cost increases. The team remains committed to maintaining profit margins at historical levels over the long term inside the store.

奶酪成本明顯高於上一季度，每磅上漲 0.33 美元至 2.26 美元。較高的奶酪對毛利潤的不利影響約為 350 萬美元或 118 個基點的利潤率。我們在本季度中期進行了進一步的價格上漲，並在 23 財年開始時進行了另一輪價格上漲，以進一步抵消這些成本上漲。該團隊仍致力於將商店內的利潤率長期保持在歷史水平。

During the fourth quarter, same-store fuel gallons sold were up 1.5%, with a fuel margin of $0.362 per gallon, up approximately $0.032 per gallon compared to the same period last year. Wholesale cost rose $0.74 a gallon, causing an extremely challenging margin environment, especially in the last few weeks of the quarter. Yet our fuel team did a remarkable job responding quickly and maintaining strong fuel margins while preserving and balancing gallons growth.

第四季度，同店銷售的燃料加侖數增長 1.5%，燃料利潤率為每加侖 0.362 美元，與去年同期相比每加侖增加約 0.032 美元。批發成本每加侖上漲 0.74 美元，導致利潤環境極具挑戰性，尤其是在本季度的最後幾週。然而，我們的燃料團隊在保持和平衡加侖增長的同時，做出了出色的快速響應並保持了強勁的燃料利潤。

Retail fuel sales were up $900 million in the fourth quarter, driven by a 16% increase in total gallons sold to 621 million gallons as well as a 40% increase in the average retail price per gallon. That average retail during this period was $3.77 a gallon compared to $2.70 a year ago. As a reminder, reported fuel results do not include the Buchanan Energy wholesale business, which is included in the other revenue category and is responsible for the vast majority of the $57 million increase that we saw this quarter in this line item.

第四季度燃料零售銷售額增長了 9 億美元，這得益於總加侖銷售量增長 16% 至 6.21 億加侖，以及每加侖平均零售價增長 40%。在此期間，平均零售價為每加侖 3.77 美元，而一年前為 2.70 美元。提醒一下，報告的燃料結果不包括 Buchanan Energy 批發業務，該業務包含在其他收入類別中，是我們本季度在該項目中看到的 5700 萬美元增長的絕大部分。

Total operating expenses, excluding credit card fees, were up 13% to $438 million in the fourth quarter. Total operating expenses were up 15.2% or $65 million, which was consistent with our expectations. Approximately 9% of the operating expense increase is due to unit growth as we operated 209 more stores than the prior year. Approximately 4% of the increase is due to same-store employee expense, and 2% of the increase is due to higher credit card fees from high fuel prices. As an aside, we have incurred approximately $55 million of additional credit card fees in fiscal '22.

第四季度，不包括信用卡費用的總運營費用增長 13% 至 4.38 億美元。總運營費用增長 15.2% 或 6500 萬美元，符合我們的預期。營業費用增加的大約 9% 是由於單位增長，因為我們比上一年多經營了 209 家門店。大約 4% 的增長是由於同店員工費用，而增長的 2% 是由於高油價導致信用卡費用增加。順便說一句，我們在 22 財年額外支付了大約 5500 萬美元的信用卡費用。

EBITDA for the quarter was $165.8 million, a 23% increase. This represents a record high fourth quarter for the company. Depreciation in the quarter was up 11.4%, driven primarily by the store growth, along with the new distribution center that was placed in service at the start of the fiscal year.

本季度 EBITDA 為 1.658 億美元，增長 23%。這標誌著該公司第四季度創歷史新高。本季度的折舊增長了 11.4%，主要是由於商店的增長，以及在本財年初投入使用的新配送中心。

Net interest expense was $15.3 million in the quarter as compared to $11.2 million in the prior year. The increase is due to the additional debt taken on to fund the Buchanan Energy and Pilot acquisitions as well as approximately $1 million in a noncash write-off of previously capitalized financing costs associated with the acceleration of the term loan prepayments.

本季度的淨利息支出為 1530 萬美元，而去年同期為 1120 萬美元。增加的原因是為為 Buchanan Energy 和 Pilot 收購提供資金而承擔的額外債務，以及與加速定期貸款提前還款相關的先前資本化融資成本的非現金沖銷約 100 萬美元。

The effective tax rate for the quarter was 17.8% compared to 22.2% in the prior year, driven by a onetime benefit from adjusting the company's deferred tax liabilities for lower state income tax rates within our footprint that were enacted during the quarter. Net income was up versus the prior year to $59.8 million, an increase of 43%. The Buchanan Energy, Circle K and Pilot acquisitions were all accretive to EBITDA in the fourth quarter, as we expected.

本季度的有效稅率為 17.8%，而去年同期為 22.2%，這是由於在本季度製定的我們業務範圍內調整公司的遞延所得稅負債以降低州所得稅率帶來的一次性收益。淨收入較上年增長至 5980 萬美元，增長 43%。正如我們預期的那樣，Buchanan Energy、Circle K 和 Pilot 的收購在第四季度都增加了 EBITDA。

Our balance sheet remains strong at April 30. We have ample liquidity of $634 million. We were also able to prepay $168 million in variable rate debt due to strong cash flow. Our total floating rate exposure is currently about 16% of our portfolio, which insulates us quite well in the current rising rate environment. And furthermore, we have no significant maturities coming due until fiscal 2026.

截至 4 月 30 日，我們的資產負債表依然強勁。我們擁有 6.34 億美元的充足流動性。由於現金流強勁，我們還能夠預付 1.68 億美元的浮動利率債務。目前，我們的浮動利率總敞口約占我們投資組合的 16%，這在當前利率上升的環境中很好地隔離了我們。此外，在 2026 財年之前，我們沒有重大到期日。

Our leverage ratio decreased to 2.1x, and our balance sheet has plenty of capacity to make good strategic investments as they present themselves to us. For the quarter, net cash generated by operating activities of $252 million, less purchases of property and equipment of $98 million, resulted in a $154 million in free cash flow. PP&E spending levels in the quarter were constrained by supply chain challenges.

我們的槓桿率降至 2.1 倍，我們的資產負債表有足夠的能力進行良好的戰略投資，因為它們呈現給我們。本季度，經營活動產生的淨現金為 2.52 億美元，減去購買的財產和設備 9800 萬美元，產生了 1.54 億美元的自由現金流。本季度的 PP&E 支出水平受到供應鏈挑戰的限制。

At the June meeting, the Board of Directors voted to increase the dividend to $0.38 per share, marking the 23rd consecutive year that the dividend has been increased. We will continue to remain balanced in our capital allocation going forward, primarily leaning in to the many EBITDA and ROIC accretive investment opportunities that are in front of us. We expect to naturally reach our target leverage ratio of 2x debt to EBITDA during fiscal '23, and therefore, we do not anticipate further discretionary debt repayments at this time. And we will remain opportunistic related to our $400 million share repurchase authorization.

在 6 月的會議上，董事會投票決定將股息提高到每股 0.38 美元，這標誌著股息連續第 23 年提高。未來，我們將繼續保持資本配置平衡，主要關注擺在我們面前的許多 EBITDA 和 ROIC 增值投資機會。我們預計在 23 財年自然會達到我們的 2 倍債務與 EBITDA 的目標槓桿比率，因此，我們目前預計不會進一步償還可自由支配的債務。我們將繼續對我們 4 億美元的股票回購授權進行投機取巧。

Although uncertainty remains, given the all-time high fuel costs and the potential impact the current macroeconomic conditions may have on consumer behavior, the company is providing the following fiscal 2023 outlook. Casey's expects same-store inside sales to be up 4% to 6% with an inside margin of approximately 40%. Same-store fuel gallons sold are expected to be between flat to up 2%. Total operating expenses are expected to increase 9% to 10% based on current fuel prices, and approximately half of that increase is same-store-related and the other half will be from unit growth.

儘管不確定性仍然存在，但鑑於燃料成本一直居高不下以及當前宏觀經濟狀況可能對消費者行為產生的潛在影響，該公司提供了以下 2023 財年展望。 Casey's 預計同店內部銷售額將增長 4% 至 6%，內部利潤率約為 40%。同店銷售的燃料加侖數預計將持平至 2%。根據當前的燃料價格，總運營費用預計將增加 9% 至 10%，其中大約一半與同店相關，另一半將來自單位增長。

Total OpEx will be up low teens in the first quarter of the year and should fall back to mid-single digits in the second half once we cycle through the acquisition activity of FY '22. We expect to add approximately 80 new units in fiscal 2023. Interest expense is expected to be approximately $55 million, while depreciation and amortization will be roughly $320 million.

總運營支出將在今年第一季度上升到十幾歲，一旦我們通過 22 財年的收購活動，下半年應該會回落到中個位數。我們預計在 2023 財年將增加約 80 個新單位。利息費用預計約為 5500 萬美元，而折舊和攤銷約為 3.2 億美元。

We expect to purchase $450 million to $500 million in PP&E, and that includes approximately $135 million related to onetime investments for remodeling the recently acquired stores, largely to put in kitchens. We expect a tax rate between 24% and 26%. We also expect to realize $20 million to $25 million in run rate synergies in fiscal '23 from our recent acquisitions as we complete the remodeling activities, with more of a second half bias based on the current permitting time lines. We also expect free cash flow of at least $250 million.

我們預計將購買 4.5 億至 5 億美元的 PP&E，其中包括大約 1.35 億美元與改造最近收購的商店的一次性投資有關，主要用於廚房。我們預計稅率在 24% 到 26% 之間。隨著我們完成改造活動，我們還預計在 23 財年通過我們最近的收購實現 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的運行率協同效應，根據當前允許的時間線，更多的下半年偏差。我們還預計至少有 2.5 億美元的自由現金流。

Given the unprecedented fuel cost volatility that we've seen in the past few months, we're not guiding to a CPG figure at this point. For model calibration purposes only, however, at the midpoint of this guidance, annual fuel profitability in the mid-30s CPG would lead to EBITDA growth for the year of at least 5% to 6%.

鑑於我們在過去幾個月中看到的前所未有的燃料成本波動，我們目前沒有指導 CPG 數據。然而，僅出於模型校準目的，在本指南的中點，30 年代中期 CPG 的年度燃料盈利能力將導致該年度的 EBITDA 增長至少 5% 至 6%。

Our first quarter experience to date is as follows: CPG is slightly below prior year levels, same-store gallon growth is at the low end of the annual range and same-store inside volumes are at the midpoint of our annual expectations. Cheese costs remain elevated on a year-over-year basis and are currently running approximately 30% higher than in the prior year.

迄今為止，我們第一季度的經驗如下：CPG 略低於去年水平，同店加侖增長處於年度範圍的低端，同店內部銷量處於我們年度預期的中點。奶酪成本同比仍居高不下，目前比上一年高出約 30%。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Darren.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給達倫。

Thanks, Steve. I'd like to again say thank you and congratulations to the entire Casey's team for delivering another record year. The hard work of the team and dedication to Casey's gives us confidence in our ability to execute on our 3-year strategic plan.

謝謝，史蒂夫。我想再次感謝並祝賀整個 Casey 的團隊創造了又一個創紀錄的一年。團隊的辛勤工作和對 Casey's 的奉獻使我們對執行 3 年戰略計劃的能力充滿信心。

As you can see, our business has performed exceptionally well in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Casey's has shown tremendous resiliency, and we're positioned especially well to deliver future value to our shareholders through our strategic plan, which is being enhanced with our commitment to technology.

如您所見，我們的業務在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中表現異常出色。 Casey's 表現出巨大的彈性，我們的定位特別好，可以通過我們的戰略計劃為我們的股東創造未來價值，我們對技術的承諾正在加強這一點。

As a reminder, the 3 pillars of our strategic plan are: reinvent the guest experience, create capacities through efficiencies and be where the guest is via disciplined store growth. All 3 pillars are supported by investing in and growing our talented team.

提醒一下，我們戰略計劃的 3 個支柱是：重塑客戶體驗，通過效率創造能力，以及通過有條不紊的商店增長成為客戶所在的地方。通過投資和發展我們有才華的團隊來支持所有 3 個支柱。

We're leveraging technology more now than ever before to reinvent the guest experience. We built a well-respected tech, digital and data team that will position us for the future as we embark on our Casey's modernization journey. Our focus on technology is centered around 3 primary areas: drive guest engagement and experience; improving team member engagement and impact; and supporting our growth via supply chain, merchandising and fuel capabilities.

我們現在比以往任何時候都更多地利用技術來重塑客戶體驗。我們建立了一個受人尊敬的技術、數字和數據團隊，在我們踏上凱西的現代化之旅時，這將使我們為未來做好準備。我們對技術的關注集中在三個主要領域：推動客人參與和體驗；提高團隊成員的參與度和影響力；並通過供應鏈、銷售和燃料能力支持我們的增長。

The goal is to create a guest experience that is best-in-class. Our mobile app now represents 65% of all digital revenue, which is currently driven by whole pies. We recently added 700 stores that can now deliver beer and hard seltzers along with their pizza orders. We also rolled out a carwash subscription program for our 200-plus carwashes.

目標是創造一流的賓客體驗。我們的移動應用程序現在佔所有數字收入的 65%，這目前是由整體驅動的。我們最近增加了 700 家商店，這些商店現在可以提供啤酒和硬蘇打水以及比薩訂單。我們還為 200 多家洗車場推出了洗車訂閱計劃。

We plan to utilize technology to ease manual functions within our stores and enable our team members to spend more time on our highest priority, our guests. Merchandise ordering efficiency, inventory management, along with more robust data analytics, will create efficiencies in our stores, along with improving accuracy and communication between our stores and our supply chain.

我們計劃利用技術來簡化商店內的手動功能，並使我們的團隊成員能夠將更多時間花在我們最優先考慮的事情上，即我們的客人上。商品訂購效率、庫存管理以及更強大的數據分析將提高我們商店的效率，同時提高我們商店與供應鏈之間的準確性和溝通。

Regarding creating capacity through efficiencies pillar, our efficient self-distribution model has served us well through these trying times and is poised to help us navigate through the challenging near-term inflationary and supply chain environments. Our fuel pricing and procurement teams have navigated through the last 2 years of unprecedented fuel volatility tremendously well and will continue to play a critical role in growing EBITDA as we look to fiscal '23.

關於通過效率支柱創造能力，我們高效的自我分配模式在這些艱難時期為我們提供了良好的服務，並準備幫助我們度過具有挑戰性的近期通脹和供應鏈環境。我們的燃料定價和採購團隊在過去 2 年中非常順利地度過了前所未有的燃料波動，並將在我們展望 23 財年時繼續在 EBITDA 增長中發揮關鍵作用。

Finally, our recently created central procurement team as well as the new asset protection department are hitting their stride. Obviously, our store growth pillar, be where the guest is via disciplined store growth, was on full display in fiscal '22. We more than doubled our previous record high unit growth with 228 newly constructed and acquired stores.

最後，我們最近成立的中央採購團隊以及新的資產保護部門正在大踏步前進。顯然，我們的商店增長支柱，通過嚴格的商店增長成為客人所在的地方，在 22 財年得到了充分展示。我們新建和收購了 228 家門店，將之前創紀錄的單位增長翻了一番多。

Our two-pronged approach to growing the business by taking advantage of strategic acquisitions when they are available, alongside organic growth, should give our shareholders peace of mind that we can ratably grow the business year after year. Our dedicated M&A team is still sourcing more stores, whether it be a single store owner or a 100-store regional chain. In the meantime, our real estate team is actively pursuing sites for new store construction. This strategy enables Casey's to remain disciplined. We do not need to overpay or chase nonstrategic acquisitions to hit our growth targets.

我們通過利用可用的戰略收購以及有機增長來發展業務的兩管齊下的方法，應該讓我們的股東放心，我們可以年復一年地大幅增長業務。我們專注的併購團隊仍在尋找更多門店，無論是單一店主還是擁有 100 家門店的區域連鎖店。與此同時，我們的房地產團隊正在積極尋找新店建設的地點。這一策略使凱西能夠保持紀律。我們不需要多付或追逐非戰略性收購來實現我們的增長目標。

With respect to our people, we have filled out the leadership team with the right amount of legacy experience and fresh perspectives to drive the long-term strategy. In fact, about 60% of our leadership team reflect diversity in ethnicity or gender. The diverse background of our leadership team has made a positive impact on how we think through critical issues, support and develop our people and reflect Casey's values. Our team's diversity also ensures we take into consideration a wide range of perspectives and experiences when we build our strategic plan and set goals, lead our teams and navigate challenges.

就我們的員工而言，我們為領導團隊配備了適量的傳統經驗和全新的視角來推動長期戰略。事實上，我們大約 60% 的領導團隊反映了種族或性別的多樣性。我們領導團隊的多元化背景對我們如何思考關鍵問題、支持和發展我們的員工以及體現凱西的價值觀產生了積極影響。我們團隊的多樣性還確保我們在製定戰略計劃和設定目標、領導團隊和應對挑戰時考慮到廣泛的觀點和經驗。

Our shareholders can also look forward to our second annual ESG report to be issued in July with our annual report and proxy statement. We received positive feedback from our shareholders after our first-ever report last year. Shareholders should expect progress from last year, particularly with respect to more quantifiable metrics as well as the completion of our first ESG materiality assessment.

我們的股東還可以期待我們將於 7 月發布的第二份年度 ESG 報告以及我們的年度報告和委託書。去年我們首次發布報告後，我們收到了股東的積極反饋。股東應該期待去年的進展，特別是在更可量化的指標以及我們第一次 ESG 重要性評估的完成方面。

As we look ahead to fiscal '23 and beyond, I remain confident in Casey's business model in the face of uncertain times. People are still returning to work, and that will continue to drive increased foot traffic to our stores. In addition, if you look back to the last 2 recessionary periods of 2008 and 2014, our company performed very well. And during those times, we did not have the value proposition of a private brand program like we do now nor did we have a loyalty platform like Casey's Rewards to effectively communicate meaningful promotions to our guests.

當我們展望 23 財年及以後，面對不確定的時期，我對凱西的商業模式仍然充滿信心。人們仍在重返工作崗位，這將繼續推動我們商店的客流量增加。此外，如果回顧 2008 年和 2014 年的最後兩個衰退期，我們公司的表現非常好。在那個時候，我們沒有像現在這樣的自有品牌計劃的價值主張，也沒有像 Casey's Rewards 這樣的忠誠度平台來有效地向我們的客人傳達有意義的促銷活動。

During inflationary times, people tend to shift buying habits toward basic needs such as food, beverages and fuel. Also, our products are considered a relatively low-cost indulgence and is the very last thing that consumers is going to give up when looking to cut costs. These are 2 significant capability improvements that will offer a competitive advantage in favor of Casey's. Now I can assure you that our leadership team is excited to take on fiscal 2023.

在通貨膨脹時期，人們傾向於將購買習慣轉向食品、飲料和燃料等基本需求。此外，我們的產品被認為是一種相對低成本的享受，是消費者在尋求削減成本時最不願意放棄的東西。這是 2 項重要的能力改進，將提供有利於 Casey 的競爭優勢。現在，我可以向您保證，我們的領導團隊很高興能夠迎接 2023 財年。

We'll now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Anthony Bonadio of Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Wells Fargo 的 Anthony Bonadio。

So for starters, I just wanted to ask a bit about the guidance. Looking at the OpEx guide, it looks like costs are running quite a bit higher than your guidance. I think you guys said something like 30% quarter-to-date. I guess, what gives you confidence that that's going to decelerate so much? And then beyond that, how are you thinking about the labor piece of that figure?

所以對於初學者來說，我只是想問一些關於指導的問題。查看 OpEx 指南，成本似乎比您的指導高很多。我想你們說的是本季度至今的 30%。我想，是什麼讓你相信這會減速這麼多？除此之外，你如何看待這個人物的勞動部分？

Yes, Anthony, maybe I'll start on just the cadence, and Darren can chime in, obviously. I think the primary influence on the way OpEx will play out over the course of the 4 quarters next year is what we're lapping in fiscal 2022. So half of our increase will still be from new units, and that includes the units that we lapped in the prior year. And so we didn't close the Buchanan acquisition until the middle of May last year. We didn't close the Circle K acquisition until the end of May. So we will pick up at least a month as the case may be of kind of incremental OpEx just from those 2 acquisitions, and then we still have to lap Pilot later in the year. So that's what drives most of it.

是的，安東尼，也許我會從節奏開始，顯然，達倫可以插話。我認為對明年 4 個季度的運營支出方式的主要影響是我們在 2022 財年所經歷的。因此，我們增長的一半仍將來自新單位，其中包括我們的單位在上一年被淘汰。所以我們直到去年 5 月中旬才完成對 Buchanan 的收購。我們直到 5 月底才完成對 Circle K 的收購。因此，我們將至少增加一個月的時間，因為這可能只是從這 2 次收購中增加的運營支出，然後我們仍然需要在今年晚些時候測試 Pilot。所以這就是大部分的驅動力。

And then in the mothership business, we started to really face quite a bit of labor inflation in the middle of the first quarter in the prior year, where we put into place a variety of referral retention type of bonus structures in our field. And so as we lap that, that puts a little bit more pressure on the first quarter lap.

然後在母艦業務中，我們在去年第一季度中期開始真正面臨相當大的勞動力通脹，我們在該領域實施了各種推薦保留類型的獎金結構。因此，當我們繞圈時，第一節圈的壓力就更大了。

And as it relates to the 30%, just to be clear, the 30% I was referencing to is the cheese cost inflation. Cheese cost is not operating expense. For us, that sits in our gross profit line in our prepared food business. And so that would not be relevant to the operating expense number.

由於它與 30% 相關，需要明確的是，我所指的 30% 是奶酪成本通脹。奶酪成本不是運營費用。對我們來說，這屬於我們預製食品業務的毛利潤線。因此，這與運營費用數字無關。

Darren, do you want to comment on just kind of what we're seeing in the labor market roughly?

達倫，你想評論一下我們在勞動力市場上看到的大致情況嗎？

Yes. I think from the labor side, things have somewhat started to normalize. We still have inflation on wages, but that has moderated a bit from what we were experiencing. But still, we have to lap over some significant increases from prior year.

是的。我認為從勞工方面來看，事情已經開始正常化了。我們的工資仍然存在通貨膨脹，但這與我們所經歷的情況相比有所緩和。但是，我們仍然必須經歷與去年相比的一些顯著增長。

The other thing I would add is that our credit card fees are a bit of a wildcard at this point in terms of the high fuel -- high retail price of fuel and what that impact can be. And to put that in context, for every $0.10 in retail price increase, that equates to about $4 million in incremental credit card fees on an annualized basis. So as fuel prices are continuing to kind of soar into record-high territory, we will still feel that impact on credit card fees. And it's hard to predict at this point when the top -- where the top is and when that may start to decline. So we've factored in some of that into the OpEx guide for the year.

我要補充的另一件事是，就高燃料而言，我們的信用卡費用在這一點上有點通配符 - 燃料的高零售價格以及這種影響可能是什麼。將其放在上下文中，零售價格每上漲 0.10 美元，就相當於每年增加約 400 萬美元的信用卡費用。因此，隨著燃油價格繼續飆升至創紀錄的高位，我們仍然會感受到信用卡費用的影響。在這一點上很難預測頂部何時 - 頂部在哪里以及何時開始下降。因此，我們在今年的運營支出指南中考慮了其中的一些因素。

Got it. That's really helpful color. And then I also just wanted to touch on fuel margins. Clearly, Q4 continued to be strong for you guys. I know it trailed off a bit in the end. And it seems like industry data in May showed pretty significant declines. It sounds like you guys are seeing something better than that quarter-to-date, but just any color you can give us on how you're thinking about the path from here.

知道了。這顏色真的很有幫助。然後我也只是想談談燃料利潤。顯然，第四季度對你們來說仍然很強勁。我知道它最後有點落後了。似乎 5 月份的行業數據顯示出相當顯著的下降。聽起來你們看到的東西比這個季度迄今為止更好，但是你可以給我們任何顏色，告訴我們你是如何思考從這裡開始的路徑的。

Yes. I thought a lot about how I wanted to talk about fuel margin and how that's looking. This is an extremely volatile environment right now. And when I was in the military, we will call this a VUCA environment, which is an acronym for volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. I think all of those words describe what we're experiencing in fuel right now.

是的。我想了很多關於我想如何談論燃料餘量以及它的樣子。現在這是一個非常不穩定的環境。而當我在軍隊的時候，我們會稱之為 VUCA 環境，它是 volatile、不確定、複雜和模棱兩可的首字母縮寫。我認為所有這些詞都描述了我們現在在燃料方面所經歷的情況。

As we mentioned, we've seen an increase of about $0.74 in costs through the quarter. If you were to shift that from the beginning of the fiscal year to now, it's about $0.80 in cost increase. But on the path of a $0.80 increase, we've had a couple of periods where cost declined over $0.20 a gallon. So the volatility is pretty extreme, and we're working hard to overcome that.

正如我們所提到的，我們已經看到整個季度的成本增加了約 0.74 美元。如果您將其從本財政年度開始轉移到現在，則成本增加約 0.80 美元。但在增加 0.80 美元的道路上，我們有幾個時期成本下降超過每加侖 0.20 美元。所以波動性非常極端，我們正在努力克服這一點。

And so what I'd tell you is we feel confident in our ability to manage through it. We've spent a lot of time over the last couple of years building the fuel pricing team and building up their capabilities. And I think they've proven themselves to be adept at managing through volatility, certainly through COVID. And now we have different drivers of that volatility, but we feel confident in our ability to do that.

所以我要告訴你的是，我們對自己管理它的能力充滿信心。在過去的幾年裡，我們花了很多時間建立燃料定價團隊並增強他們的能力。而且我認為他們已經證明自己擅長通過波動進行管理，尤其是通過 COVID。現在我們有不同的驅動因素導致這種波動，但我們對自己的能力充滿信心。

Now that being said, it's not going to always neatly line up with quarter-end or any other artificial time line that we draw to. So I think over time, over the course of the year, we will manage it well, and we will be able to navigate through it. But as you saw in the fourth quarter, we gave some guidance in a business update, and margin changed pretty dramatically over the couple of weeks after that. And so we missed it by about $0.01 or so. But overall, we think we'll be able to navigate through it. It will just be how that plays out quarter-to-quarter that's really the big wildcard here.

話雖如此，它並不總是與四分之一結束或我們繪製的任何其他人為時間線整齊排列。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，在這一年中，我們會很好地管理它，我們將能夠駕馭它。但正如你在第四季度看到的那樣，我們在業務更新中給出了一些指導，在那之後的幾週內，利潤率發生了巨大變化。所以我們錯過了大約 0.01 美元左右。但總的來說，我們認為我們將能夠駕馭它。這將是每季度如何發揮作用，這才是真正的大通配符。

Yes. I may add, Anthony, to that, I do think it's important to reiterate, though, the structural dynamics that kind of underpin historically high levels of CPG for the industry remain in place, right? I mean the fact that the operating costs of the business, for the industry, for all the reasons we talked about in the OpEx discussion of just higher labor and higher compliance costs and higher credit card fees, those still exist, and those exist whether CPG moves by $0.01 or $0.02 from a near-term perspective.

是的。安東尼，我可以補充一點，我認為重申這一點很重要，不過，支撐該行業歷史性高水平 CPG 的結構性動力仍然存在，對嗎？我的意思是，對於行業而言，業務的運營成本，出於我們在 OpEx 討論中談到的所有原因，即更高的勞動力、更高的合規成本和更高的信用卡費用，這些仍然存在，而且這些是否存在 CPG從短期來看，移動 0.01 美元或 0.02 美元。

And so we don't see any change as we sit here today from an industry perspective, though, around what has really driven kind of the industry to a different platform level of fuel profitability. None of that is changing. And for small operators, all of those issues are even more acute than they are for the larger players.

因此，從行業的角度來看，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們沒有看到任何變化，但是，圍繞著真正推動該行業達到不同平台水平的燃料盈利能力的因素。這些都沒有改變。對於小型運營商而言，所有這些問題都比大型運營商更為嚴重。

And our next question comes from Ben Bienvenu of Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Ben Bienvenu。

So I want to ask about the in-store merchandise margins. You pointed to 40% margins, which is, I think, is notable given all the cost pressures that you and your peers are seeing. When we think between grocery and prepared food, I would think the margin compression would reside in the prepared food business, and maybe there's margin expansion in grocery? But please correct me if I'm wrong. And then if you could talk about what, if anything, you've done to forward buy cheese and mitigate any price or cost volatility there, that would be helpful.

所以我想問一下店內商品的利潤率。您指出了 40% 的利潤率，我認為，鑑於您和您的同行所看到的所有成本壓力，這是值得注意的。當我們在雜貨店和預製食品之間考慮時，我認為利潤率壓縮將存在於預製食品業務中，也許雜貨店的利潤率會擴大？但是，如果我錯了，請糾正我。然後，如果您可以談論您為遠期購買奶酪並減輕那裡的任何價格或成本波動所做的工作（如果有的話），那將很有幫助。

Yes. Ben, this is Darren. I'll go ahead and start, and Steve can kind of fill in the blanks. I think with respect to the margin, we certainly have the intent to stay ahead or try to stay at pace with inflation throughout the year and maintaining that margin in that 40% range. The grocery and general merchant side is going to be a little bit more manageable because, as we've discussed before, those agreements with the major CPG manufacturers are on a calendar year basis. And we took some of those cost increases kind of January 1, and we had planned retail price increases to mitigate those. And so as you've seen, we've still been able to have margin expansion in grocery and GM in spite of the inflation. So we think we're pretty solid on that side of the ledger.

是的。本，這是達倫。我會繼續開始，史蒂夫可以填補空白。我認為就利潤率而言，我們當然有意保持領先地位或試圖在全年與通脹保持同步，並將利潤率保持在 40% 的範圍內。雜貨店和一般商家方面將更易於管理，因為正如我們之前所討論的，與主要 CPG 製造商的這些協議是以日曆年為基礎的。我們在 1 月 1 日採取了其中一些成本增加的措施，我們計劃提高零售價格以減輕這些成本。正如你所看到的，儘管通貨膨脹，我們仍然能夠在雜貨店和通用汽車上實現利潤率擴張。所以我們認為我們在分類賬的那一側非常可靠。

On the prepared foods, it is more commodity-based. And so that tends to be a little bit less ratable. But we've taken 3 retail price increases so far since October of last year, one of them most recently in the last couple of weeks. And we think we have more pricing power there because it's a little less commoditized in retail, meaning nobody really knows what the proper price for a slice of pizza should be or for a breakfast sandwich. So we believe we have a little more pricing power there. It will be a matter of being able to keep ahead. As we sit here today, we believe we're caught up to that. We just need to continue to see how commodity prices impact, and then we'll have to manage through the pricing piece of it.

在準備好的食物上，它更多地是以商品為基礎的。因此，這往往不太受歡迎。但自去年 10 月以來，到目前為止，我們已經進行了 3 次零售價格上漲，其中最近一次是在過去幾週內。而且我們認為我們在那裡擁有更大的定價權，因為它在零售方面的商品化程度較低，這意味著沒有人真正知道一片比薩餅或早餐三明治的合適價格。所以我們相信我們在那裡有更多的定價權。這將是一個能夠保持領先的問題。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們相信我們已經趕上了這一點。我們只需要繼續觀察商品價格如何影響，然後我們必須通過定價部分進行管理。

Steve, any other color you want to add?

史蒂夫，你想添加任何其他顏色嗎？

On the cheese specifically, we have a little bit of cheese bought forward in the fourth quarter of fiscal '23, but we really don't have anything bought forward in the first 3 quarters. I wish we were able to secure cheese at a reasonable price in the forward market because the company has a history, obviously, of buying forward where it makes sense for us. We watch it like a hawk every single day. The last 6 months have proven to be very difficult to find forward pricing that really makes any sense. And so we've not been a big player in that space.

特別是在奶酪方面，我們在 23 財年第四季度提前購買了一點奶酪，但在前三個季度我們真的沒有任何提前購買的東西。我希望我們能夠在遠期市場以合理的價格獲得奶酪，因為該公司顯然有在對我們有意義的地方購買遠期的歷史。我們每天都像鷹一樣看它。事實證明，過去 6 個月很難找到真正有意義的遠期定價。所以我們在那個領域並不是一個大玩家。

And so going into fiscal '23, it's a de minimis level of locked-in pricing as we sit here today. Hopefully, that changes. And obviously, we will take advantage of it if we can do that on reasonable terms.

因此，進入 23 財年，這是我們今天坐在這裡的最低限度的鎖定定價水平。希望這會改變。顯然，如果我們能以合理的條件做到這一點，我們將利用它。

Okay. Great. That makes perfect sense. Darren, you alluded to some of the pricing increases you've taken. When we think about your 4% to 6% in-store same-store sales growth in 2023, if you could disaggregate price versus volume in that, that would be helpful as we think about the composition of growth this next year.

好的。偉大的。這很有意義。達倫，你提到了一些你已經採取的價格上漲。當我們考慮到 2023 年 4% 到 6% 的店內同店銷售額增長時，如果你可以將價格與數量分開，這將有助於我們考慮明年的增長構成。

Yes. I guess, Ben, probably the way I'd look at it is if we took a look at the fourth quarter, what we saw is about 4.5% of the increase was from price and about 0.5% was from unit velocity, which equated to the 5 -- a little over 5% same-store sales increase. I would expect an equation similar to that.

是的。我想，Ben，可能我的看法是，如果我們看一下第四季度，我們看到大約 4.5% 的增長來自價格，大約 0.5% 來自單位速度，這相當於5 - 同店銷售額增長略高於 5%。我希望有一個類似的等式。

We have a lot of different consumer dynamics going on right now. With inflation the way it is, we're seeing that consumers are buying less take-home-sized packages of things and more single-serve items, which tends to accrue to our benefit on the margin side. And so we think that, that will continue to help us out. And it helps out on the sales side with frequency. So I think people are making more frequent trips, but buying less per trip. Now inflation and price increases have kind of mitigated that average retail, so the average retail is still up. But we think it's going to be mostly driven by price and flat to higher -- slightly higher traffic.

我們現在有很多不同的消費者動態。隨著通貨膨脹的發生，我們看到消費者購買的帶回家大小的包裹減少了，而購買了更多的一次性物品，這往往會在利潤方面為我們帶來好處。所以我們認為，這將繼續幫助我們。它有助於頻繁地在銷售方面發揮作用。所以我認為人們的旅行頻率更高，但每次旅行的購買量更少。現在通貨膨脹和價格上漲已經緩解了平均零售額，因此平均零售額仍在上漲。但我們認為這將主要受價格驅動，並持平至更高——流量略高。

And our next question comes from Irene Nattel of RBC Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Irene Nattel。

Just one point of clarification on your answer to the last question. With respect to sort of the trade down in package size, does that apply to tobacco as well as beverage?

只需澄清您對最後一個問題的回答即可。關於減少包裝尺寸的交易，這是否適用於菸草和飲料？

Yes, Irene, yes, it does. Actually, we've -- over the last couple of quarters, we've seen that mix of cartons to pack really start to get back to closer to pre-COVID levels. And if you recall, during COVID, things swung a little bit heavier on the carton side, less on the pack side, as people spent fewer trips going to stores. That's all reversed, and we are almost back to normal on that mix, which is about 85% single packs and about 15% cartons.

是的，艾琳，是的，確實如此。實際上，我們已經 - 在過去的幾個季度中，我們已經看到要包裝的紙箱組合真正開始回到接近 COVID 之前的水平。如果你還記得，在 COVID 期間，隨著人們去商店的次數減少，紙箱方面的事情會變得更重，而包裝方面的事情會變少。這一切都顛倒過來了，我們幾乎恢復了這種組合，即大約 85% 的單包裝和大約 15% 的紙箱。

That's really helpful. So essentially what you're seeing is what you've seen previously when we've had consumer spending being pinched. Is that a reasonable comment?

這真的很有幫助。所以基本上你所看到的就是你之前在消費者支出受到擠壓時所看到的。這是一個合理的評論嗎？

Yes, I think so. When cash is a little bit tight, people just buy less per occasion than they normally do. That doesn't mean they really stopped. They just don't pantry fill as much as they used to. And so we're seeing some of that behavior begin.

是的，我想是這樣。當現金有點緊張時，人們每次購買的東西都會比平時少。這並不意味著他們真的停止了。他們只是不像以前那樣裝滿食品儲藏室。所以我們看到一些行為開始了。

Yes. That's really helpful. I also wanted to come back to the question about gas margins. And clearly, we all recognize the challenge with forecasting those. But I was really intrigued by your comment around kind of if we use the mid-30 range, then you get to 5%, 6% growth. Is it safe -- or should we infer from the way in which you phrased that, that as a result of all of the initiatives you've put into place, you think that on a longer-term basis, that mid-30 range could be sustainable?

是的。這真的很有幫助。我還想回到關於gas margin的問題。顯然，我們都認識到預測這些挑戰。但我真的對你的評論很感興趣，如果我們使用 30 中間的範圍，那麼你會得到 5%、6% 的增長。它是否安全——或者我們應該從你所說的方式推斷出，由於你已經採取了所有舉措，你認為從長遠來看，30 年中期可能可持續？

Well, Irene, I've referred -- I've talked about, first of all, in fuel margins before, you know what, it's a difficult one to say. I do -- what I do believe to be true is what Steve referred to earlier, that the underlying cost of operating a business in this industry is high now and is going to continue to stay high and potentially increase when you look at the cost of labor, the cost of regulatory compliance and everything else that's going on in the world. So I don't see those margins retreating anytime soon.

嗯，艾琳，我已經提到過——首先，我之前談到過燃料利潤，你知道嗎，這很難說。我確實 - 我確實相信史蒂夫之前提到的，在這個行業經營企業的基本成本現在很高，並且當你查看成本時將繼續保持高位並可能增加勞動力、合規成本以及世界上正在發生的一切。因此，我認為這些利潤率不會很快回落。

Now there is a bit of a wildcard in there, and that's with the retail price of fuel because I think margins tend to expand a bit to compensate for the credit card fees associated with higher retail prices. So I would anticipate that those can maybe go up in the short term as we see these really high fuel prices, and then they could come back down a little bit to offset that. So net-net, you end up in the same place. But on the cents per gallon, it may look a little bit higher to overcome those inflated credit card fees.

現在有一個通配符，那就是燃料的零售價格，因為我認為利潤率往往會擴大一點，以補償與較高零售價格相關的信用卡費用。因此，我預計這些價格可能會在短期內上漲，因為我們看到這些非常高的燃料價格，然後它們可能會回落一點以抵消這一點。所以net-net，你最終在同一個地方。但就每加侖美分而言，克服那些虛高的信用卡費用可能看起來要高一些。

That's very helpful. And just one final question, on the gas volume guidance, so if we take that flat to plus 2%...

這很有幫助。最後一個問題，關於氣體量指導，所以如果我們把這個持平到加上 2%……

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Bonnie Herzog。

So I kind of wanted to go back and just kind of ask a little bit differently on the fuel margins. I just wanted to understand that what you laid out in terms of the mid-30 CPG margins, and you noted this implies to 5% to 6% EBITDA growth, but Darren, how are you guys thinking about your medium-term EBITDA growth target of 8% to 10%? Is that something that you see as still doable?

所以我有點想回去，只是對燃料利潤提出一些不同的要求。我只是想了解您根據 30 年中期 CPG 利潤率制定的內容，並且您指出這意味著 EBITDA 增長 5% 至 6%，但達倫，你們如何考慮您的中期 EBITDA 增長目標8% 到 10%？您認為這仍然可行嗎？

And I guess, I'm also asking in the context that this target assumed, I believe, OpEx growth of 7% or lower. So just given your guidance this year or next fiscal year for high single-digit OpEx growth, how at risk is that EBITDA growth target of 8% to 10%?

而且我想，我也是在這個目標假設的背景下提出的，我相信，OpEx 增長為 7% 或更低。因此，剛剛給出了今年或下一財年高個位數運營支出增長的指導，8% 到 10% 的 EBITDA 增長目標有多大風險？

Yes, Bonnie, the 8% to 10% was a CAGR over a 3-year period. And as we sit here today, Steve, keep me honest, I think we're 11% to 12%, somewhere in that range over the first 2 years of that plan. So we're cycling over our figures of 12% and 11% on top of a 12%, and now we'll put a 5% or 6% on top of an 11%. So the math will work out very favorably for a 3-year CAGR of 8% to 10%. So we feel very confident in our ability to do that.

是的，邦妮，8% 到 10% 是 3 年期間的複合年增長率。當我們今天坐在這裡時，史蒂夫，老實說，我認為我們在該計劃的前 2 年的某個範圍內是 11% 到 12%。因此，我們在 12% 的基礎上循環使用 12% 和 11% 的數據，現在我們將在 11% 的基礎上添加 5% 或 6%。因此，對於 8% 至 10% 的 3 年復合年增長率，數學計算將非常有利。所以我們對自己有能力做到這一點感到非常有信心。

And look, there's just a lot going on in this environment right now that makes it volatile. So we think we've taken the right approach in terms of giving the guidance where we think we can land it, and that will still help us to land on our commitments from Investor Day over that 3-year CAGR.

看，現在這個環境中發生了很多事情，這使得它變得不穩定。因此，我們認為我們已經採取了正確的方法來提供我們認為可以實現的指導，這仍將有助於我們實現投資者日對 3 年復合年增長率的承諾。

And Steve, you can talk about the OpEx.

史蒂夫，你可以談談運營支出。

Yes, just -- might I just remind you, right, we're not giving EBITDA guidance for next year. It's just a modeling exercise to calibrate folks. Darren's points are all 100% valid, right? Over the medium term, our algorithm holds. We feel very confident about our ability to do that. That algorithm includes growing OpEx at a slightly lower clip than we would grow EBITDA. We feel very good about doing that. And some of that is going to come from same-store, some of that will come from new units.

是的，只是 - 我想提醒你一下，對，我們不會為明年提供 EBITDA 指導。這只是一個校准人們的建模練習。達倫的積分都是 100% 有效的，對吧？從中期來看，我們的算法成立。我們對自己有能力做到這一點感到非常有信心。該算法包括以略低於我們增長 EBITDA 的速度增長 OpEx。我們覺得這樣做很好。其中一些將來自同店，其中一些將來自新單位。

As it relates to fiscal '23, it just so happens because we're still lapping non-same-store acquired units from fiscal '22, you get a little bit of extra new unit pressure associated with that. And obviously, it's a super high credit card environment. But our confidence in that medium-term algorithm is unchanged from where I sit, for sure.

由於它與 '23 財年有關，它之所以如此，是因為我們仍在從 '22 財年開始處理非同店購買的單位，你會得到一些與此相關的額外新單位壓力。顯然，這是一個超高信用卡環境。但可以肯定的是，我們對中期算法的信心與我所處的位置相比並沒有改變。

Okay. That's helpful. And then wanted to ask about prices at the pump, which continued to go up quite a bit. And curious to hear, what's your expectation of where prices could head this year? And I guess I'm asking because trying to understand, what would be implied or assumed based on the guidance you laid out? Where do you see prices going? I mean, do you think they could go above $6 a gallon? And thinking about when we may hit true demand destruction, do you guys have a level that you think that will occur at?

好的。這很有幫助。然後想詢問泵的價格，價格繼續上漲很多。很想知道，您對今年的價格走勢有何預期？我想我問是因為試圖理解，根據您制定的指導，會暗示或假設什麼？您認為價格將走向何方？我的意思是，你認為他們能超過每加侖 6 美元嗎？想想我們什麼時候可能會達到真正的需求破壞，你們是否有一個你認為會發生的水平？

Yes, Bonnie, it's really hard to predict where we're going to see those prices ultimately peak out. And I would say it's very geography-specific. We have a pretty wide range from the most expensive areas in our geography to the least expensive.

是的，邦妮，我們真的很難預測這些價格最終會在哪里達到頂峰。我會說這是非常特定於地理的。我們有相當廣泛的範圍，從我們地理上最昂貴的地區到最便宜的地區。

And so if you were to take a look at the greater Chicago suburbs, where we just acquired some Bucky's stores, those retail prices are well north of $5 and approaching that $6 range that you referenced. At the other end of the spectrum, we have some areas that are just slightly over $4 a gallon. So it's a pretty wide range.

因此，如果你看看大芝加哥郊區，我們剛剛收購了一些 Bucky's 商店，這些零售價格遠高於 5 美元，接近你提到的 6 美元範圍。另一方面，我們有一些區域的價格略高於每加侖 4 美元。所以範圍很廣。

In terms of demand destruction, we've kind of modeled this out based on our quartiles on retail prices. So where we look at our top quartile of retail prices, which is well north of $5 a gallon at this point, we are starting to see some erosion in volume in the low single digits. And in the middle 2 quartiles, we're kind of flattish to maybe slightly down. And then in the bottom quartile, we're still seeing gallon growth.

在需求破壞方面，我們已經根據零售價格的四分位數對其進行了建模。因此，當我們查看零售價格的最高四分之一時，此時遠高於每加侖 5 美元，我們開始看到低個位數的銷量下降。在中間的 2 個四分位數中，我們有點平淡，可能略有下降。然後在底部四分之一，我們仍然看到加侖增長。

So it's roll all that together, we feel like that flat to 2% is a solid number for guidance. But again, we'll have to see how this plays out. $6 a gallon is uncharted water for everybody, so I'm not sure what to expect with that, but I would imagine there is some demand destruction at that point.

因此，將所有這些放在一起，我們認為將 2% 固定為一個可靠的指導數字。但同樣，我們將不得不看看這是如何進行的。每加侖 6 美元對每個人來說都是未知的水，所以我不確定會發生什麼，但我想那時會有一些需求破壞。

And our next question comes from Chuck Cerankosky of Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Chuck Cerankosky。

Great quarter. Talk about the industry, if you can, how the customer who is pumping gas and then stop it in for prepared foods, how they're maybe trimming down what they buy? And is that reflected in your comment before with pizza slices being up so much? Are they giving up other purchases that may be going with the pizza or beverages or the other items that are available?

很棒的季度。談談這個行業，如果可以的話，那些正在抽氣然後停下來準備食物的客戶，他們是如何減少他們購買的東西的？這是否反映在你之前的評論中，因為披薩片漲了這麼多？他們是否放棄了可能與比薩餅或飲料或其他可用物品一起購買的其他商品？

Yes, Chuck, we haven't seen any reduction in what people are buying or the frequency of people coming into the store. What we have started to see is some trading around within the store. So certainly, our private brand products have resonated well. And we exited the quarter at 5% penetration. As we sit here today, we're at 5.2%. So we've increased 20 basis points in about a month with that shift towards private brands and just some more affordable options. So we haven't seen that behavior shift there.

是的，查克，我們沒有看到人們購買的東西或人們進入商店的頻率有任何減少。我們開始看到的是商店內的一些交易。當然，我們的自有品牌產品引起了很好的共鳴。我們以 5% 的滲透率退出了本季度。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們的比例是 5.2%。因此，隨著轉向自有品牌和一些更實惠的選擇，我們在大約一個月內增加了 20 個基點。所以我們還沒有看到那裡的行為轉變。

What we have seen on the fuel side is a few things in terms of change of behavior. People aren't initially just pulling back on buying fuel. What they are doing is changing their fuel buying behavior. So the average fill-up is down about a gallon versus where it was the same time last year. So people are purchasing just a little bit less fuel than they had historically per visit, but they'll end up having to make more visits to the store over time, which we believe gives us a better opportunity to get people inside the store to buy more stuff.

我們在燃料方面看到的是一些行為改變方面的事情。人們最初並不只是停止購買燃料。他們正在做的是改變他們的燃料購買行為。因此，與去年同期相比，平均加油量下降了約一加侖。因此，人們購買的燃料比以往每次訪問購買的燃料要少一點，但隨著時間的推移，他們最終將不得不更多地訪問商店，我們相信這為我們提供了一個更好的機會讓人們在商店購買更多東西。

The second thing they're doing is shifting over to higher blends of ethanol because the ethanol economics are actually working out pretty favorably right now from a consumer perspective. So they'll shift over to an E15 type product versus what most of the fuel is blended at E10. And so we've seen about a 200 basis point shift in mix on E15. And then the last thing is you'll see some customers trade down from premium into regular fuel to save money that way. But overall, those are some of the behaviors we're starting to see right now.

他們正在做的第二件事是轉向使用更高比例的乙醇，因為從消費者的角度來看，乙醇經濟實際上現在非常有利。因此，他們將轉向 E15 型產品，而不是大多數燃料在 E10 中混合。因此，我們已經看到 E15 的組合發生了大約 200 個基點的變化。然後最後一件事是，您會看到一些客戶從優質燃料換成普通燃料以通過這種方式省錢。但總的來說，這些是我們現在開始看到的一些行為。

And I wanted to -- I was going to ask about that fuel sales mix. So when the latter occurs, that hurts your margins, but increased purchases of a richer ethanol mix helps your margin, correct?

我想 - 我要問一下燃料銷售組合。因此，當後者發生時，這會損害您的利潤，但增加購買更豐富的乙醇混合物有助於您的利潤，對嗎？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

And our next question comes from Bobby Griffin of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Bobby Griffin。

First one is on fuel. I apologize, I know we've asked a lot about it. But I'm just curious, there's been a nice inflection point in Casey's from pre-pandemic versus post -- or pre-pandemic into the pandemic, where you guys have outperformed the OPEC average for the Midwest.

第一個是燃料。我很抱歉，我知道我們已經問了很多關於它的問題。但我只是好奇，凱西從大流行前與大流行後或大流行前到大流行之間有一個很好的轉折點，你們在中西部的表現優於歐佩克的平均水平。

And as us as investors and analysts, is it fair to hold that outperformance going forward? Is that like a goal? Or should we think about that you guys can continue to outperform? Understand you're predicting the actual margins a lot harder, but can we keep the outperformance based on a lot of the structural changes you guys have made to your fuel practice? Is that something you can comment on or talk a little bit about?

作為投資者和分析師，保持這種優異表現是否公平？這像是一個目標嗎？還是我們應該考慮你們可以繼續表現出色？了解您對實際利潤率的預測要困難得多，但是基於你們對燃料實踐所做的許多結構性變化，我們能否保持優異的表現？您可以對此發表評論或談論一下嗎？

Yes, sure, Bobby. I would say that we expect to outperform our competitors on every category that we compete in. And fuel certainly is one of those we've made significant investment in, and we have had some good success over the last couple of years. I don't see that changing. I think we've really stood up some strong capabilities and a very, very talented team that can -- that has proven that they can execute in the environment. I think these more volatile environments are really where you see the talents of that team start to shine. And so yes, I would certainly expect that we would outperform our competitors in our geography.

是的，當然，鮑比。我想說的是，我們希望在我們競爭的每個類別中都超越我們的競爭對手。燃料肯定是我們在其中進行了大量投資的領域之一，並且在過去幾年中我們取得了一些不錯的成功。我看不出這種變化。我認為我們確實擁有了一些強大的能力和一支非常非常有才華的團隊，這已經證明他們可以在環境中執行。我認為這些更不穩定的環境確實是您看到該團隊的才能開始發光的地方。所以是的，我當然希望我們在地理上的表現會超過我們的競爭對手。

Okay. And then, Darren, your quartile data was very interesting. And I don't know if the prices match up on directly as my question is going to go from a location standpoint. But in the quartile that you see the higher gas prices and you have more rural-based stores, are you seeing higher trips to your kind of grocery stores as the larger grocery stores probably further away for that customer, so they're shopping more frequently with you given that they can -- given that it's a much further trip to the Walmart or whatnot in those small markets?

好的。然後，達倫，你的四分位數數據非常有趣。而且我不知道價格是否直接匹配，因為我的問題將從位置的角度出發。但是在你看到更高的汽油價格並且你有更多的農村商店的四分位數中，你是否看到你的雜貨店的旅行次數更多，因為較大的雜貨店可能對那個客戶更遠，所以他們購物的頻率更高考慮到他們可以 - 考慮到在那些小市場上去沃爾瑪或其他什麼地方要走得更遠？

Yes, Bobby, I don't have any data in front of me that would tell me that. I certainly would expect that as retail prices get higher. I think where we've really seen the extreme retail prices, like I said, are in more of the Chicago suburbs, so that's probably not the dynamic you're referring to. In the rural areas, particularly outside of Illinois, we haven't seen those extreme prices like we're seeing in Illinois. So it's -- we'd have to get back to you on that data point, but I don't have that in front of us right now.

是的，鮑比，我面前沒有任何數據可以告訴我。我當然希望隨著零售價格的上漲。我認為我們真正看到極端零售價格的地方，就像我說的，更多的是在芝加哥郊區，所以這可能不是你所指的動態。在農村地區，特別是伊利諾伊州以外的地區，我們還沒有看到像伊利諾伊州那樣的極端價格。所以它是 - 我們必須就那個數據點回复你，但我現在沒有那個在我們面前。

And our next question comes from Anthony Lebiedzinski of Sidoti & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sidoti & Company 的 Anthony Lebiedzinski。

So I just wanted to switch gears a little bit here. So you talked about private label doing well and exiting the year with 5% penetration. So as you look forward here, which product categories are you mostly focusing on as you look to expand the private label portfolio?

所以我只是想在這裡稍微改變一下。所以你談到了自有品牌表現良好，並以 5% 的滲透率退出了這一年。因此，正如您在這裡展望的那樣，在您希望擴大自有品牌產品組合時，您主要關注哪些產品類別？

Anthony, we're working on a lot of different categories right now in private brand. We actually participate in 26 different categories of private brands. And some of those are underpenetrated, some of those are more penetrated. But I can tell you, where we've seen some successes so far, in the last quarter, we launched a line of Casey's candy bars, which was something we had never played in before. And they have become the #1 standard-sized bar in dollars, units and margin within the category. And when I say that, I mean that's outperforming Reese's, Snickers, all of those national brands. And so I think it really illustrates the quality and the value that those products provide.

Anthony，我們現在正在研究自有品牌的許多不同類別。我們實際上參與了 26 個不同類別的自有品牌。其中一些滲透不足，其中一些滲透更深。但我可以告訴你，到目前為止，我們已經取得了一些成功，在上個季度，我們推出了一系列 Casey 的糖果棒，這是我們以前從未玩過的東西。它們已成為該類別中以美元、單位和利潤計算的第一標準尺寸條形圖。當我這麼說的時候，我的意思是它的表現優於 Reese's、士力架，以及所有這些民族品牌。所以我認為它確實說明了這些產品提供的質量和價值。

The other thing that I'd tell you about, we've had this longer-term goal of getting 10% penetration over time and within the grocery and general merchant category. And that is -- it doesn't sound as big an order as it is. But when you factor in the fact that tobacco plays a pretty significant role in that grocery and general merchant category, and that tobacco category gets 4 cost increases per year, so that math becomes more challenging on a mix perspective.

我要告訴你的另一件事是，我們的長期目標是隨著時間的推移以及在雜貨店和一般商家類別中實現 10% 的滲透率。那就是 - 這聽起來不像是一個大訂單。但是，當您考慮到煙草在雜貨店和一般商家類別中扮演著相當重要的角色，並且煙草類別每年會增加 4 次成本時，因此從混合角度來看，數學變得更具挑戰性。

But the point I'd like to make is on the 26 categories that we play in today with private brands, we are already at a 10% penetration in 14 of those categories. So I think when you kind of take the tobacco equation out and you look category by category, we're having some really good success in there. And we launched 23 new items in the fourth quarter. We have another 20 items coming out in this quarter. So we're very bullish on our -- on private brands. And now in this inflationary environment, we think that's a little bit of a tailwind for us as we continue to expand on those products.

但我想說的是，在我們今天與自有品牌合作的 26 個類別中，我們已經在其中 14 個類別中達到了 10% 的滲透率。所以我認為，當你把煙草方程式拿出來，逐個類別看時，我們在這方面取得了一些非常好的成功。我們在第四季度推出了 23 款新品。本季度我們還有 20 件商品推出。因此，我們非常看好我們的自有品牌。現在在這種通貨膨脹的環境中，我們認為這對我們來說有點順風，因為我們會繼續擴展這些產品。

And then just going back to the labor commentary, so you talked about labor cost before. But as far as labor availability, can you give us some comments as to what you're seeing there?

然後回到勞動力評論，所以你之前談到了勞動力成本。但就勞動力可用性而言，您能否就您在那裡看到的情況給我們一些評論？

Yes. Labor still remains tight, although I think our operations and HR teams have done a really good job of managing that. We haven't had any issues where we're closing stores or limiting hours because of team members. And we're -- as we sit here today, we've actually seen an uptick in applications, and we are just below one person per store opening. So I would -- in a historical context, I'd say that's about average or that's kind of normal. So I feel really good about where we're sitting from a staffing standpoint at this stage of the game.

是的。勞動力仍然很緊張，儘管我認為我們的運營和人力資源團隊在管理方面做得非常好。我們沒有因為團隊成員而關閉商店或限制營業時間的任何問題。而且我們 - 當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們實際上已經看到申請的增加，而且每個商店開業的人數都低於一個人。所以我會 - 在歷史背景下，我會說這大約是平均水平或者這很正常。因此，從人員配置的角度來看，在比賽的這個階段，我對我們所處的位置感覺非常好。

And our next question comes from Kelly Bania of BMO Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 Kelly Bania。

Kelly Bania here. Wanted to see if you could shed some light on your total merchandise sales growth outlook. Obviously, the 4% to 6% comps, but from a non-comp perspective, given the -- still some M&A and some of the kitchen remodels, just help us understand kind of what you are expecting on the total merchandise growth outlook.

凱利巴尼亞在這裡。想看看您是否可以對您的總商品銷售增長前景有所了解。顯然，4% 到 6% 的補償，但從非補償的角度來看，考慮到 - 仍然有一些併購和一些廚房改造，只是幫助我們了解您對總商品增長前景的預期。

Kelly, this is Steve. I'll start with that. I mean it's certainly going to be higher than the same-store number. I mean if you just think of the way we lap those, so the 80-ish new units, those won't come in all in the first quarter, like a lot of them came in last year, but you'll get a benefit associated with those.

凱利，這是史蒂夫。我將從那開始。我的意思是它肯定會高於同店數量。我的意思是，如果您只是想一下我們的方式，那麼 80 多歲的新單位，這些不會在第一季度全部出現，就像去年有很多一樣，但你會得到好處與那些有關。

And you're correct in that the remodeling benefit that we get in these new stores, today, we closed the store, depending on the permitting time line, it's not in a same-store number. And when we open that kitchen, you kind of get a step-up as we start to sell a lot more prepared food from a base usually of close to 0. And so we haven't quantified and I don't think we'll disclose the specific number associated with that. But clearly, your instinct is correct in that the total merch sale number should be noticeably better than what that inside run rate turns out to be.

你說得對，我們在這些新店裡得到的改造好處，今天，我們關閉了這家店，根據允許的時間線，它不在同一個店面。當我們打開那個廚房時，你會有所進步，因為我們開始從通常接近 0 的基數開始銷售更多準備好的食物。所以我們沒有量化，我認為我們不會披露與此相關的具體數字。但很明顯，您的直覺是正確的，因為總商品銷售數量應該明顯好於內部運行率。

Okay. That's helpful. And also I just wanted to ask about the prepared food. You talked about, I think, the March price increases, it sounds like another in April. Just one, the response in terms of elasticity, it sounds like you thought you had more pricing power. What is in your plan as you look at that comp guidance? And what have the recent price increases done to help offset some of the pressure in the prepared food gross margin line?

好的。這很有幫助。而且我只是想問一下準備好的食物。你談到了，我認為，3 月份的價格上漲，聽起來像是 4 月份的另一個。只有一個，彈性方面的反應，聽起來你認為你有更多的定價能力。當您查看該補償指南時，您的計劃是什麼？最近的價格上漲做了什麼來幫助抵消預製食品毛利率線的一些壓力？

Yes, this is Steve. I'll start and let Darren chime in, in terms of just kind of what's in our expectation. If I do the 2 categories separately, because we've behaved a little bit differently in the grocery versus prepared food, most of our grocery price increases, excluding tobacco, I think were put into action at the beginning of this calendar year just based on the contractual nature of that business.

是的，這是史蒂夫。我會開始讓達倫插話，就我們的期望而言。如果我分別做這兩個類別，因為我們在雜貨店和預製食品中的表現略有不同，我們的大部分雜貨價格上漲，不包括煙草，我認為是在今年年初採取的行動，只是基於該業務的合同性質。

And so we know what the inflation is across most of the center of the store through our joint business planning exercise. And most of those price increases were put in place in January. So let's call that low to mid-single digits depending on what the particular category is. Those will run through the end of the calendar year, which is reflected in our expectation. We'll have to renegotiate all of that as we get into the latter half of this calendar year, but I would expect we will continue to price in the grocery business consistent with maintaining margins as we enter the next calendar year. And so I don't think we would take a lot of pressure on margin no matter how those negotiations turn out.

因此，通過我們的聯合業務規劃活動，我們知道商店中心大部分地區的通貨膨脹情況。大部分價格上漲都是在一月份實施的。因此，讓我們根據特定類別將其稱為低到中個位數。這些將持續到日曆年年底，這反映在我們的預期中。隨著我們進入本日曆年的下半年，我們將不得不重新談判所有這些，但我預計我們將在進入下一個日曆年時繼續為雜貨業務定價，以保持利潤率。因此，我認為無論談判結果如何，我們都不會在保證金上承受很大壓力。

Prepared food is a little more complicated. So to Darren's point, we have mid-single-digit type of price increases on average rolling through the prepared food category. They've started at different points in time. Some of them started later last calendar year, and the more significant ones started either in the middle of the third -- middle of the fourth quarter for us or literally at the beginning of this fiscal year. But it's a mid-single-digit kind of price increase. It is rolling through over the course of the year. We'll get the benefit of most of that the entire year.

準備好的食物有點複雜。因此，就達倫而言，我們在預製食品類別中平均有中個位數的價格上漲。他們在不同的時間點開始。其中一些開始於去年晚些時候，而更重要的開始於第三季度中期——對我們來說是第四季度中期，或者實際上是在本財政年度的開始。但這是一個中等個位數的價格上漲。它在一年中滾動。我們將在整個一年中獲得大部分收益。

We do think once you lap the cost increases, we've covered the dollars of inflation that we know about right now. But to the extent cheese gets better or worse, as an example, or proteins, I would expect we will need to continue to kind of turn those dials on prepared food over the course of the year. But ultimately, we have enough pricing in the system now based on the inflation that we know about to give us confidence that kind of 40%-ish number for the year inside the store is sustainable and doable as we sit here today.

我們確實認為，一旦您考慮到成本增加，我們就已經涵蓋了我們現在所知道的通貨膨脹美元。但就奶酪變得更好或更糟的程度而言，例如，或蛋白質，我預計我們將需要在一年中繼續將這些刻度盤轉向準備好的食物。但最終，基於我們所知道的通貨膨脹，我們現在在系統中有足夠的定價，這讓我們相信，當我們今天坐在這裡時，商店內 40% 左右的數字是可持續和可行的。

Yes. And Kelly, the only thing I'd add to that from an elasticity standpoint is that I think we're not the only ones experiencing commodity inflation. Everybody that's in the restaurant business, QSR, fast casual, what have you, is experiencing the same thing.

是的。凱利，從彈性的角度來看，我唯一要補充的是，我認為我們並不是唯一經歷商品通脹的人。餐飲業的每個人，QSR，快速休閒，你有什麼，都在經歷同樣的事情。

And so when you put us into that spectrum, we tend -- even with the recent retail prices we've taken, we tend to be a more affordable option for most people than a QSR, certainly than a fast casual restaurant. So we would expect that over time, we will benefit from that, and we'll see some switching, some channel shifting from QSR fast casual into our channel, which should help us on the volume side.

因此，當您將我們置於該範圍內時，我們傾向於 - 即使我們採用了最近的零售價格，對於大多數人來說，我們往往是比 QSR 更實惠的選擇，當然也比快速休閒餐廳。所以我們希望隨著時間的推移，我們會從中受益，我們會看到一些轉換，一些頻道從 QSR 快速休閒轉移到我們的頻道，這應該有助於我們在音量方面。

And our next question comes from John Royall of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Royall。

So on the store addition guidance, just looking at the 80 stores, it's a relatively big program if you plan to do it mostly organically. And then just comparing to prior years, the CapEx at the low end seems pretty similar to fiscal '20 and '21 on a much smaller build program. So -- and that's before backing out the remodels for the new stores. So I'm just trying to square why the CapEx appears so low relative to the 80-store programs. I don't know if there's an assumption that some of that 80 comes from acquisitions or if there's something else I'm missing there maybe.

所以關於店鋪添加指導，只看80家店鋪，如果你打算大部分有機地做，這是一個比較大的計劃。然後與前幾年相比，低端的資本支出似乎與 20 財年和 21 財年非常相似，只是規模要小得多。所以——那是在取消新店的改造之前。所以我只是想弄清楚為什麼資本支出相對於 80 家商店的計劃顯得如此之低。我不知道是否有人假設這 80 個中的一些來自收購，或者是否還有其他我可能遺漏的東西。

Yes. John, this is Steve. The answer is yes on your assumption. So I would expect the 80 units will be a mix of new units that we build as well as units that we end up purchasing. If we purchase something, it won't go through PP&E. Obviously, it will go through a different line item on the cash flow statement.

是的。約翰，這是史蒂夫。根據您的假設，答案是肯定的。所以我預計這 80 個單位將是我們建造的新單位以及我們最終購買的單位的組合。如果我們購買東西，它不會經過 PP&E。顯然，它將通過現金流量表上的不同行項目。

As we sit here today, it's probably directionally going to be half and half. I think we slowed down new builds in fiscal '22 mainly because we were digesting so many acquired units. And that's the beauty of our model is we can kind of hold on the land bank. And so you're going to have, at the first part of this year, some units that we frankly could have opened last year and chose not to. But as we sit here today, probably it's half and half, and that's the biggest contributor to why the run rate of total CapEx is kind of that $450 million to $500 million.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，它的方向可能是一半一半。我認為我們在 22 財年放慢了新建項目的速度，主要是因為我們正在消化如此多的收購單位。這就是我們模型的美妙之處在於我們可以持有土地儲備。因此，在今年上半年，您將擁有一些我們坦率地說去年可能已經開業但選擇不開業的單位。但是當我們今天坐在這裡時，可能是一半一半，這就是為什麼總資本支出的運行率是 4.5 億美元到 5 億美元的最大貢獻者。

I will say one offsetting factor to that is we actually couldn't spend everything we wanted to spend at the end of fiscal '22 because of supply chain issues. We just couldn't get things. And so I don't know if that's going to get better, frankly, in fiscal '23 or not. We're kind of assuming that it does and that we're able to catch up on some things like vehicles and equipment for certain aspects of the store. But time will tell as to how successful we're going to be in kind of spending what we want to spend on things like that.

我要說的一個抵消因素是，由於供應鏈問題，我們實際上無法在 22 財年末花費我們想要花費的所有東西。我們就是拿不到東西。因此，坦率地說，我不知道這是否會在 23 財年變得更好。我們有點假設它確實如此，並且我們能夠趕上商店某些方面的車輛和設備等一些東西。但是時間會證明我們在花我們想花的錢上會取得多大的成功。

Great. That's really helpful. And then, Steve, you talked a little bit about deferred taxes in the prepared remarks. I just wanted to dig in on that a little because it looks like for the full year, your cash taxes were quite low after adjusting for the deferred add-back, which was relatively large. So just looking for a little more detail on what was driving that on the low cash taxes.

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後，史蒂夫，你在準備好的評論中談到了遞延稅。我只是想深入研究一下，因為看起來全年，在調整相對較大的遞延加回後，您的現金稅相當低。因此，只需尋找更多關於低現金稅的驅動因素的詳細信息。

Yes. I think from -- if I think of how it impacted the tax rate first, there were 3 states in our footprint during the year that lowered their state income tax rates or they've announced that they're going to have lower income tax rates in the future. We immediately have to make a deferred tax entry when they announce that, even if it's not active yet, just to revalue deferred tax liabilities in Nebraska, Arkansas and Oklahoma for us. All will have lower state tax rates in the future, and we have a tax liability, and so that provides an immediate benefit.

是的。我認為——如果我首先考慮它是如何影響稅率的，那麼在我們的足跡中，有 3 個州在這一年降低了他們的州所得稅率，或者他們已經宣布他們將有更低的所得稅率在將來。當他們宣佈時，我們必須立即進行遞延稅項分錄，即使它尚未生效，只是為了為我們重新評估內布拉斯加州、阿肯色州和俄克拉荷馬州的遞延所得稅負債。未來，所有國家的稅率都會降低，我們有納稅義務，因此可以立即受益。

In the quarter, that was the big driver of why the rate was so low in the fourth quarter was actually Nebraska. They announced a state tax reduction. I would tell you from a cash tax standpoint, we actually probably overpay taxes a little bit relative to what I think we'll end up owing in fiscal '22. It's part of the reason we have a tax receivable on the balance sheet. And I think that will -- it will allow us to have a smaller estimated payment here at the beginning of the year, and it will be a cash flow positive item for us in fiscal '23.

在本季度，這就是為什麼第四季度利率如此之低的主要原因實際上是內布拉斯加州。他們宣布減稅。我會從現金稅的角度告訴你，相對於我認為我們最終將在 22 財年欠下的稅款，我們實際上可能多付了一點稅。這是我們在資產負債表上有應收稅款的部分原因。而且我認為這將允許我們在今年年初在這裡獲得較小的估計付款，這將是我們在 23 財年的現金流正項目。

And our next question comes from Karen Short of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Karen Short。

I wanted to ask a quick question just with respect to gas margins. So I know you gave a slight indication in terms of where gas margins are trending into the current quarter to date, but you haven't really given much of an outlook in any concrete way for the year. So I wanted to get your perspective on where you think the actual run rate should be on gas margins.

我想問一個關於gas margin的快速問題。因此，我知道您就本季度迄今為止的天然氣利潤率趨勢給出了一個輕微的指示，但您並沒有真正以任何具體的方式給出今年的前景。因此，我想了解您認為實際運行速度應該在汽油利潤率上的位置。

And then I wanted to find out if you could talk a little more about if there's any other changes to your inventory management process because obviously, with 5- to 7-day-old inventory in the ground, you benefit from days old inventory when gas prices are rising, but you're obviously going to get hurt if gas prices fall. So I wanted to talk a little bit about how you're managing that and thinking about managing through the inventory process.

然後我想知道你是否可以多談談你的庫存管理流程是否有任何其他變化，因為很明顯，在地下有 5 到 7 天的庫存，當天然氣時，你可以從幾天前的庫存中受益價格正在上漲，但如果汽油價格下跌，您顯然會受到傷害。所以我想談談你如何管理它並考慮管理庫存流程。

Yes. Karen, I guess with respect to the first part of your question, we've historically not given fuel margin guidance for the year. So we're kind of staying consistent with that practice of not doing that at this point.

是的。凱倫，我想關於你問題的第一部分，我們歷來沒有給出今年的燃料利潤率指導。因此，我們在某種程度上與目前不這樣做的做法保持一致。

In terms of inventory management in the ground, yes, it -- in the very short term, when fuel costs are rising, you have lower cost inventory in the ground that does help. But then the retail prices tend to lag, moving up on that cost, too, so that typically, your margin doesn't expand when your -- when the cost curve is going up, it tends to contract. And then the opposite is true on the way down when you do have higher cost inventory in the ground because it's falling, but the retail prices tend to fall slower than they rise on the upside. So the margins actually expand on the way down. So we'll probably have more upside on the way down than we do downside on the way up is the way we like to think about it.

就地面庫存管理而言，是的，它 - 在非常短期內，當燃料成本上升時，您擁有較低成本的地面庫存確實有幫助。但是零售價格往往會滯後，也會隨著成本上漲，因此通常情況下，當成本曲線上升時，您的利潤不會擴大，但往往會收縮。當你在地下有更高的成本庫存時，情況正好相反，因為它正在下降，但零售價格的下降速度往往比上漲的速度要慢。因此，利潤率實際上會在下降的過程中擴大。因此，我們在下跌的過程中可能會比我們在上漲的過程中擁有更多的上行空間，這是我們喜歡思考的方式。

And is there any evolution in terms of how you're thinking about managing inventories to be leaner and more, I guess, mark-to-market like as in rack to retail a day off? And then the second question I had is you had talked, and I'm sure you'll talk about this next week, about upstream capabilities in terms of gas margins in terms of actual contracts on pipeline. So is there any update on that?

在你如何考慮管理庫存方面是否有任何演變？然後我的第二個問題是你已經談過了，我相信你會在下週討論這個問題，關於管道實際合同中天然氣利潤率方面的上游能力。那麼有什麼更新嗎？

Yes. In terms of how we manage the fuel in the ground, we're not as concerned about the mark-to-market. What we are concerned about is the competitive landscape that's going on. So we want to make sure that we're staying in our relevant pricing range and consistent with our strategy for retail pricing on the street, and then the cost is going to be the cost, and we'll manage that over time.

是的。就我們如何管理地下燃料而言，我們並不關心按市價計算。我們擔心的是正在發生的競爭格局。因此，我們希望確保我們保持在相關定價範圍內，並與我們的街頭零售定價策略保持一致，然後成本將成為成本，我們將隨著時間的推移對其進行管理。

In terms of the upstream on fuel procurement, we implemented some systems this past year that would allow us to get more sophisticated in the fuel procurement process. Well, on the risk management side as well as the accounting side and dispatching side so that we're -- we have those foundational capabilities, we just wrapped that up this past quarter. And so this year, we're going to begin the process of building out that capability to go further upstream in our procurement processes.

在燃料採購的上游方面，我們在去年實施了一些系統，使我們能夠在燃料採購過程中變得更加複雜。好吧，在風險管理方面以及會計方面和調度方面，所以我們 - 我們擁有這些基礎能力，我們剛剛在上個季度完成了這些。因此，今年，我們將開始建立這種能力，以便在我們的採購流程中進一步向上游發展。

We don't expect to actually launch any of that in this fiscal year. We intend to launch that in the next fiscal year. But this year will be one of really making sure that we've got all those systems and processes in place so we can execute on that further upstream procurement effectively.

我們預計不會在本財年實際推出任何此類產品。我們打算在下一個財政年度推出它。但今年將是真正確保我們擁有所有這些系統和流程的一年，這樣我們就可以有效地執行進一步的上游採購。

And I would now like to turn the conference back to Darren Rebelez for closing remarks.

我現在想把會議轉回給 Darren Rebelez 做閉幕詞。

All right. Thank you very much, and thanks for taking time to join us today. I'd also like to thank our team members once again for their contributions in delivering another all-time record year. And for those of you who will be able to come out to Ankeny next week for our Analyst Day, we look forward to seeing you then. Thank you.

好的。非常感謝，感謝您今天抽出寶貴時間加入我們。我還要再次感謝我們的團隊成員，感謝他們為創造又一個創紀錄的年份所做的貢獻。對於那些能夠在下週來到 Ankeny 參加我們的分析師日的人，我們期待著與您見面。謝謝你。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。