開利公司 (CARR) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's Q3 2026 earnings release.

    早安,歡迎參加開利(Carrier)2026 年第三季財報發布。

  • I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Michael Rednor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Michael, please go ahead.

    我想介紹今天會議的主持人:投資人關係副總裁 Michael Rednor。Michael,請開始。

  • Michael Rednor - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Michael Rednor - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are David Gitlin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Goris, Chief Financial Officer.

    早安,歡迎參加開利(Carrier)2026 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有董事長兼執行長 David Gitlin,以及財務長 Patrick Goris。

  • Except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring costs and certain significant non-recurring items. A reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast.

    除非另有說明,公司將就持續營運的業績進行說明,並排除重組成本及若干重大的一次性(非經常性)項目。這些以及其他非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表可在網路直播的附錄中找到。

  • We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Carrier's SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

    我們也提醒各位,本簡報包含前瞻性陳述,可能受到風險與不確定性影響。開利向 SEC 提交的文件(包括 Form 10-K 與 Form 10-Q 季報)載有重要因素的詳細說明,這些因素可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Dave.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Dave。

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. We delivered a strong third quarter. Organic sales grew 15%, adjusted operating profit increased about 35%, with adjusted operating margins expanding 260 basis points. Adjusted EPS increased 30% or approximately 15%, excluding the impact of IEEPA refunds. Year-to-date free cash flow was also very strong at $1.5 billion. Our strategy is working, and we are winning.

    謝謝你,Mike,大家早安。我們第三季交出強勁表現。有機銷售成長 15%,調整後營業利益增加約 35%,調整後營業利益率擴張 260 個基點。調整後每股盈餘(EPS)成長 30%;若排除 IEEPA 退款影響,約成長 15%。年初至今自由現金流也非常強勁,達 15 億美元。我們的策略正在奏效,我們正在勝出。

  • Global orders increased 35% in the quarter, with global commercial orders up over 60%. Data center orders increased 300%, and year-to-date data center orders have exceeded $3 billion, an increase of nearly 350%. We delivered more than $550 million in data center sales in the third quarter, exceeding our target, and we remain on track to deliver our full year commitment of $2 billion. This momentum has contributed to a record backlog of more than $8.5 billion. And remember, that backlog excludes minimum volume commitments under long-term agreements.

    本季全球訂單成長 35%,其中全球商用訂單成長超過 60%。資料中心訂單成長 300%,年初至今資料中心訂單已超過 30 億美元,增幅接近 350%。第三季我們交付超過 5.5 億美元的資料中心銷售,超出目標,且我們仍按計畫達成全年 20 億美元的承諾。這股動能推動在手訂單(backlog)創下超過 85 億美元的紀錄。請記得,該在手訂單不包含長期協議下的最低採購量承諾。

  • Earlier this month, we signed an agreement with a hyperscaler for more than $3 billion, with a significant portion of that covered by a minimum volume commitment. Our team is also working with several other leading hyperscalers and large colo customers to secure future agreements across our differentiated commercial HVAC portfolio, including chillers, CDUs and building management systems. It is also encouraging that data center sales are margin accretive to our applied business.

    本月稍早,我們與一家超大規模雲端業者(hyperscaler)簽署超過 30 億美元的協議,其中相當一部分由最低採購量承諾所涵蓋。我們的團隊也正與其他多家領先的 hyperscaler 與大型共置(colo)客戶合作,爭取在我們具差異化的商用 HVAC 產品組合(包括冷水機、CDU 與樓宇管理系統)上簽訂未來協議。同樣令人振奮的是,資料中心銷售對我們的應用(Applied)業務具有增益的毛利/利潤率貢獻。

  • Importantly, we see strength beyond data centers. Non-data center commercial orders increased 20% in the quarter, residential sales and CSA increased more than 30%. Residential and light commercial sales in Europe grew 13%. Aftermarket grew 9%, and the installed base created by today's commercial growth positions our aftermarket for sustained long-term expansion.

    重要的是,我們看到資料中心以外也同樣強勁。本季非資料中心的商用訂單成長 20%,住宅銷售與 CSA 成長超過 30%。歐洲的住宅與輕型商用銷售成長 13%。售後市場成長 9%,而今日商用成長所帶來的裝機基礎,將使我們的售後市場具備長期且可持續的擴張動能。

  • The quarter was strong, but the bigger story is how fundamentally Carrier's growth profile has changed, as you can see on slide 4. We now have a powerful combination of long-cycle commercial growth, expanding aftermarket revenue and improving short-cycle residential and light commercial markets. This gives us both increased visibility and multiple avenues for sustained growth. Our commercial HVAC and aftermarket businesses have grown at double-digit rates every year since spin. By the end of this year, we expect these businesses to be approximately twice their size versus spin. And by the end of next year, we expect them to represent nearly half of our portfolio.

    本季表現強勁,但更大的重點在於開利的成長輪廓已發生根本性改變,如投影片 4 所示。我們如今結合了強勁的長週期商用成長、擴大的售後收入,以及改善中的短週期住宅與輕型商用市場。這讓我們同時擁有更高的能見度與多條可持續成長的路徑。自分拆(spin)以來,我們的商用 HVAC 與售後業務每年皆以雙位數成長。到今年年底,我們預期這些業務的規模將約為分拆時的兩倍。到明年年底,我們預期它們將占我們產品組合近一半。

  • We are winning in commercial through differentiation, as you see on slide 5. We have fundamentally transformed our commercial HVAC business. Our sales are up 2x since then, and our backlog is up 4x. We invested in a new and innovative product portfolio, with us seeing great demand for our new 2- and 3-megawatt air cool chillers and our new family of CDUs.

    我們透過差異化在商用領域勝出,如投影片 5 所示。我們已從根本上改造了商用 HVAC 業務。自那時以來,我們的銷售成長至 2 倍,在手訂單成長至 4 倍。我們投資打造全新且創新的產品組合,市場對我們新推出的 2MW 與 3MW 風冷式冷水機,以及新一代 CDU 產品系列需求強勁。

  • In addition to products, we have significantly enhanced our digital, BMS, AI and system offerings, complemented by a far more expansive field network of technicians, spec engineers and selling professionals, all to provide our customers with differentiated outcomes, namely, intelligent, autonomous and efficient buildings.

    除產品之外,我們也大幅強化數位、BMS、AI 與系統解決方案,並以更廣泛的現場網路作為支撐,包括技術人員、規格工程師與銷售專業人員,旨在為客戶提供差異化成果——也就是智慧化、自主化且高效率的建築。

  • We are also winning because of our execution and customer support. Just in the past month, 2 key hyperscalers have doubled down on their commitments to us based in part on our performance, not only product, digital and systems performance, but also our on-site commissioning and field support.

    我們也因執行力與客戶支援而勝出。僅在過去一個月,就有兩家關鍵 hyperscaler 基於我們的表現而加碼承諾;這不僅是產品、數位與系統的表現,也包括我們的現場試運轉(commissioning)與現場支援。

  • Our strong demand and backlog require additional capacity. Last week, we announced a new advanced manufacturing and engineering site in Fort Worth, Texas. The facility will add approximately 1,500 highly skilled jobs, in-source critical subassemblies and components and expand our test lab capacity. We plan to begin customer deliveries from this site in the late summer of next year.

    強勁需求與在手訂單需要更多產能。上週,我們宣布在德州沃斯堡(Fort Worth)設立新的先進製造與工程據點。該設施將新增約 1,500 個高技能職缺,把關鍵次組件與零組件內製化(in-source),並擴充我們的測試實驗室產能。我們計畫於明年夏末開始由該據點向客戶交付。

  • Given the tremendous backlog and growth opportunities within our CSA segment, we are appointing two proven leaders to ensure that we fully realize our growth and earnings potential in both commercial and RLC in this segment. We announced earlier this week that Gaurang Pandya, who has been a driving force of our commercial transformation and has shown great leadership running CSA, will focus all of his efforts on the CSA commercial business, while Ed Dryden, who has been a driving force of our operational, digital and engineering transformation within CST, will now take responsibility for CSA RLC. Both are great leaders and will continue to report to me. I will take our responsibility for overall CSA segment, and we will continue to report CSA as such.

    鑑於我們 CSA 事業部門龐大的在手訂單與成長機會,我們將任命兩位經驗證的領導者,以確保在該事業部門的商用與 RLC 兩大領域都能充分實現成長與獲利潛力。我們本週稍早宣布:一直是推動商用轉型的關鍵力量、且在領導 CSA 方面展現卓越領導力的 Gaurang Pandya,將把全部精力聚焦於 CSA 的商用業務;而一直是推動 CST 內部營運、數位與工程轉型的關鍵力量的 Ed Dryden,將接手負責 CSA RLC。兩位都是優秀的領導者,並將持續向我匯報。我將承擔 CSA 事業部門的整體責任,我們也將持續以 CSA 作為對外揭露的事業部門。

  • In addition to a transformed commercial business, we have market-leading resi and light commercial businesses where markets are improving, as you can see on slide 6. We had expected the CSA residential market to be below 7 million units this year. It now appears to be tracking to between 7.5 million and 8 million units. In Europe, the heating market is stabilizing. Germany has returned to growth, and demand for both heat pumps and air conditioning is extremely strong.

    除了完成轉型的商用業務之外,我們在住宅與輕型商用領域也擁有市場領先的業務,而相關市場正如投影片 6 所示逐步改善。我們原先預期今年 CSA 住宅市場將低於 700 萬台。目前看來,市場走勢可能落在 750 萬至 800 萬台之間。在歐洲,供暖市場正在趨於穩定。德國已重回成長,熱泵與空調的需求都極為強勁。

  • Beyond market recovery, we continue to outperform through product, digital and systems differentiation. The combination of Carrier, Toshiba and Viessmann gives our 5,000 engineers, a unique collection of technologies to scale globally. We are leveraging compressors, inverters, controls, drives and software developed across our global centers of excellence to deliver our residential customers globally with intelligent, personalized and efficient comfort. For example, in the US, we recently launched a mid-tier heat pump using Toshiba's variable frequency drive and rotary compressor technology, and initial orders have been strong.

    除了市場復甦之外,我們也持續透過產品、數位與系統差異化而跑贏市場。Carrier、Toshiba 與 Viessmann 的結合,為我們 5,000 名工程師提供了可在全球規模化的獨特技術組合。我們正運用全球卓越中心所開發的壓縮機、變頻器、控制器、驅動器與軟體,為全球住宅客戶提供智慧化、個人化且高效率的舒適體驗。例如在美國,我們近期推出一款中階熱泵,採用 Toshiba 的變頻驅動與迴轉式壓縮機技術,初期訂單表現強勁。

  • In Europe, the Viessmann Vitocal 200A has launched across more than 10 countries, with record presales. We are also applying Viessmann's one-base digital framework to our digital offerings in CSA, and our systems approach continues to gain traction. Systems Profi installers in Europe delivered 70% growth in the third quarter, while in CSA, we will be initiating field trials of our first integrated air-to-air heat pump and domestic hot water solution in the first half of 2027, with full launch expected by the end of next year.

    在歐洲,Viessmann Vitocal 200A 已在超過 10 個國家上市,預售創下新高。我們也正將 Viessmann 的單一基底(one-base)數位框架應用於 CSA 的數位產品,且我們的系統化方法持續獲得市場認可。歐洲的 Systems Profi 安裝商在第三季實現 70% 成長;同時在 CSA,我們將於 2027 年上半年啟動首款整合式空氣對空氣熱泵與生活熱水解決方案的現場試驗,並預期於明年年底前全面上市。

  • Carrier energy is progressing our integrated battery heat pump offering through key partnerships, including our selection as the first new technology partner for PG&E's share program funded by Google, and we are installing our first revenue-producing units this quarter. We are also applying the same strategy across buildings and homes, differentiated and cost-competitive products, digital and controls, system solutions, life cycle solutions and go-to-market excellence.

    開利能源(Carrier Energy)正透過關鍵合作夥伴關係推進我們整合式電池熱泵方案,包括我們獲選為 PG&E 由 Google 資助之 SHARE 計畫的首家新技術合作夥伴,且我們本季正在安裝首批可帶來營收的機組。我們也正將相同策略應用於商用建築與住宅領域,提供具差異化且具成本競爭力的產品、數位化與控制、系統解決方案、全生命週期解決方案,以及卓越的上市(go-to-market)執行力。

  • Before I put 2026 in perspective, I want to address Climate Solutions Europe. I am obviously disappointed with the impairment. As I've shared with you before, I remain confident in the strategic rationale and the benefits of the acquisition. In hindsight, our timing was unfortunate. I am, however, very encouraged by what we see ahead.

    在我談 2026 年的展望之前,我想先談談歐洲氣候解決方案(Climate Solutions Europe)。我對這次減損顯然感到失望。如我先前與各位分享的,我仍對此收購的策略合理性與其帶來的效益充滿信心。事後回看,我們的時機不巧。不過,對於我們所看到的未來前景,我感到非常振奮。

  • Markets are improving. Demand for heat pumps and air conditioning is very strong. We are launching compelling new product, digital and system offerings, expanding our channel partnerships and building record commercial backlog. I am confident that Thomas Donato and the team will deliver the growth and margin expansion that we expect going forward.

    市場正在改善。熱泵與空調的需求非常強勁。我們正在推出具吸引力的新產品、數位化與系統方案,擴大通路合作夥伴關係,並建立創紀錄的商用在手訂單。我有信心 Thomas Donato 與團隊將在未來交付我們所期待的成長與利潤率擴張。

  • Before I turn it over to Patrick, a few comments on slide 7. When Carrier became an independent company in 2020, there were questions about our ability to generate sustained growth. The investments we have made, the portfolio we have built and the way we now operate the company have changed that outlook. Carrier is better positioned for strong growth today than we have been in a long time.

    在交棒給 Patrick 之前,我先就第 7 頁投影片補充幾點。當開利於 2020 年成為獨立公司時,外界曾質疑我們是否有能力創造可持續的成長。我們所做的投資、所建立的產品組合,以及我們如今營運公司的方式,已改變了這種看法。開利目前在強勁成長方面的定位,比我們很長一段時間以來都更有利。

  • In addition to top line growth, by overdriving on price, productivity and volume, we expect to deliver double-digit EPS growth this year despite facing unexpected in-year input cost headwinds of $550 million to $600 million, driven by tariffs, commodities and supply chain inefficiencies.

    除了營收成長之外,透過在價格、效率提升(productivity)與銷量上的超額推進,我們預期即使面臨本年度意外的投入成本逆風 5.5 億至 6 億美元(由關稅、大宗商品與供應鏈效率不彰所致),仍可在今年實現每股盈餘(EPS)雙位數成長。

  • Gross productivity alone this year will be about $600 million. We recognize that these actions have been insufficient to drive the margin expansion this year that we expect of ourselves, but we -- but given that we expect the inflationary environment to carry over and continue into 2027, we have already announced a number of price increases. For example, in CSA, we have announced price actions across the portfolio of up to 10%. We will also continue to be very aggressive on driving productivity, restructuring and cost actions and supply chain resiliency.

    僅今年的總效率提升(gross productivity)就約為 6 億美元。我們也認知到,這些行動不足以推動我們對自己所期待的今年利潤率擴張;但—鑑於我們預期通膨環境將延續並持續到 2027 年,我們已宣布多項漲價措施。例如在 CSA,我們已宣布針對全產品組合採取最高達 10% 的價格行動。我們也將持續以非常積極的方式推動效率提升、重整與成本行動,以及供應鏈韌性。

  • Though it is too early to give guidance for 2027, thanks to the great work of our nearly 50,000 team members across the world. We expect to enter next year with record backlogs, accelerating commercial and data center demand, recovering residential markets, growing aftermarket revenue and differentiated technologies across the portfolio, positioning us for another year of double-digit EPS growth.

    雖然現在要提供 2027 年指引仍為時過早,但要歸功於我們全球近 50,000 名團隊成員的出色工作。我們預期在進入明年時將擁有創紀錄的在手訂單、加速成長的商用與資料中心需求、復甦中的住宅市場、成長的售後市場營收,以及遍及產品組合的差異化技術,讓我們具備再度實現 EPS 雙位數成長的一年之有利條件。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Patrick. Patrick?

    接下來,我把時間交給 Patrick。Patrick?

  • Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 8. As Dave mentioned, we had a strong quarter. Reported sales growth of 12% was driven by 15 points of organic sales growth, with strong global commercial sales, particularly in the Americas, and continued improvement in resi and light commercial in the Americas and Europe. The divestitures of Riello and NORESCO were a net 3-point headwind to reported sales.

    謝謝你,Dave,各位早安。請翻到第 8 頁投影片。如 Dave 所提到的,我們本季表現強勁。報告口徑銷售成長 12%,主要由 15 個百分點的有機銷售成長所帶動;全球商用銷售強勁,尤其在美洲地區,同時美洲與歐洲的住宅(resi)及輕型商用也持續改善。出售 Riello 與 NORESCO 對報告口徑銷售造成淨 3 個百分點的逆風。

  • The year-over-year adjusted operating -- operating margin expansion of 260 basis points reflects the benefit of strong organic growth, including price, partially offset by increased input costs, including tariffs and supply chain challenges. In addition, we recorded an approximate $130 million benefit from IEEPA refunds. And as you can see, free cash flow was very strong at close to $700 million. Moving on to slide 9, which shows the Q3 year-over-year earnings bridge. Adjusted EPS increased 30%, driven by operating profit growth and a lower share count, partially offset by a higher effective tax rate.

    年對年調整後營業—營業利潤率擴張 260 個基點,反映強勁的有機成長(包含價格)的效益,但部分被投入成本上升(包括關稅與供應鏈挑戰)所抵銷。此外,我們認列約 1.3 億美元的 IEEPA 退稅收益。如各位所見,自由現金流非常強勁,接近 7 億美元。接著看第 9 頁投影片,顯示第三季年對年獲利橋接。調整後 EPS 成長 30%,主要由營業利益成長與流通股數下降所帶動,但部分被較高的有效稅率所抵銷。

  • Let's move on to the segments, starting with CSA on slide 10. As you can see on the slide, orders continue to be exceptionally strong in this segment. Organic sales growth was also broad-based across resi, light commercial and commercial. Resi was up over 30%, benefiting from the absence of destocking, and light commercial is up high single digits. As expected, resi field inventory levels ended Q3 about flat to the prior year, and we continue to expect year-end field inventories to be about flat versus the prior year as well.

    接著看各事業部,先從第 10 頁的 CSA 開始。如投影片所示,該事業部的訂單持續異常強勁。有機銷售成長也在住宅、輕型商用與商用各領域全面展開。住宅成長超過 30%,受惠於去庫存(destocking)不再發生;輕型商用則成長高個位數。如預期,第三季末住宅通路庫存水位較去年同期約持平;我們也持續預期年底通路庫存將同樣與去年同期約持平。

  • Commercial sales were up over 25%, driven by a significant ramp-up in data center deliveries, and our data center sales in this segment increased about 2.5x sequentially. We expect continued strong data center sales growth in the fourth quarter, both year-over-year and sequentially.

    商用銷售成長超過 25%,主要由資料中心出貨大幅放量所帶動;而本事業部的資料中心銷售較前一季約成長 2.5 倍。我們預期第四季資料中心銷售仍將維持強勁成長,無論年對年或季對季皆然。

  • Segment operating margin of 22.2% was ahead of our guide due to the benefit of the IEEPA refunds. Excluding the refunds, margins were lower than we expected. The combination of positive but lower-than-expected price realization, increased input costs and supply chain challenges put pressure on margins. As Dave mentioned, we are addressing these 3 areas.

    事業部營業利潤率 22.2% 高於我們的指引,主要受惠於 IEEPA 退稅。若排除退稅,利潤率低於我們預期。價格實現為正但低於預期、投入成本上升以及供應鏈挑戰等因素的組合,對利潤率造成壓力。如 Dave 所提到的,我們正針對這三個面向採取行動。

  • I will review the other segments briefly as the main drivers for carrier performance are what I just reviewed for CSA. So let's move on to slide 11, CSE. This segment also had broad-based strong orders growth, up 30%. Organic sales in the segment were up 12%, driven by strong performance in residential light commercial up low teens, with heat pump and air conditioning sales both up approximately 35%. As expected, boiler sales declined high single digits.

    我將簡要回顧其他事業部,因為開利整體表現的主要驅動因素就是我剛針對 CSA 所說明的內容。接著看第 11 頁,CSE。該事業部同樣呈現全面性的強勁訂單成長,上升 30%。該事業部有機銷售成長 12%,主要由住宅輕型商用的強勁表現所帶動,成長低十位數,其中熱泵與空調銷售皆約成長 35%。如預期,鍋爐銷售下滑高個位數。

  • Commercial sales reflect strong data center growth. Similar to the CSA segment, we expect data center sales to remain strong into year-end. As to profitability, it is encouraging to see the segment deliver double-digit margins.

    商用銷售反映資料中心的強勁成長。與 CSA 事業部類似,我們預期資料中心銷售在年底前仍將維持強勁。就獲利能力而言,看到該事業部交出雙位數利潤率令人鼓舞。

  • Turning to Asia on slide 12. This segment delivered about 5% orders growth, with commercial up about 10%. Organic sales grew 3%, reflecting strong performance in commercial HVAC, up double digits, including in China, partially offset by continued softness in residential China. Aftermarket continues to be really strong in this region, up low teens, and segment operating margin expansion was driven by volume growth and strong productivity.

    接著看第 12 頁的亞洲。該事業部訂單成長約 5%,其中商用約成長 10%。有機銷售成長 3%,反映商用 HVAC 的強勁表現(成長達雙位數,包含中國),但部分被中國住宅市場持續疲弱所抵銷。本區域的售後市場持續非常強勁,成長低十位數;事業部營業利潤率擴張則由銷量成長與強勁的效率提升所帶動。

  • Transportation on slide 13. Organic sales were down 3%, with growth in container more than offset by a mid-single-digit decline in the higher-margin global truck and trailer business.

    第 13 頁的運輸事業。有機銷售下滑 3%,其中貨櫃業務的成長,超過抵銷了高利潤的全球卡車與拖車業務中個位數的下滑。

  • Turning to Q3 orders on slide 14. Total company orders in the quarter were very strong, up 35%, with growth across all segments and particularly strong in the Americas and in Europe. Our commercial businesses in the Americas and Europe achieved strong data center order intake. Excluding data centers, commercial orders were up 20% globally. Within transport, North America truck and trailer orders were up mid-teens, encouraging, though too early to call for the recovery.

    接著看第 14 頁的第三季訂單。公司整體本季訂單非常強勁,成長 35%,各事業部皆成長,且美洲與歐洲尤為強勁。我們在美洲與歐洲的商用業務取得強勁的資料中心訂單承接(order intake)。若排除資料中心,商用訂單在全球成長 20%。在運輸領域,北美卡車與拖車訂單成長中十位數,令人鼓舞,但現在仍言之過早,尚不足以判定復甦已然到來。

  • Moving on to slide 15 and shifting to our updated 2026 organic sales outlook. We now expect full year sales to be nearly $24 billion, with organic growth of about 10%, up from our prior outlook, which was a little over $23 billion in sales. The most notable changes are improvements in resi and light commercial in the Americas and in Europe, and we also expect commercial sales in the Americas to be up a bit versus our prior guide.

    接著看第15頁,轉到我們更新後的2026年有機銷售展望。我們目前預期全年銷售額將接近240億美元,有機成長約10%,高於先前的展望;先前我們預估銷售額略高於230億美元。最顯著的變化是美洲與歐洲的住宅與輕型商用業務改善;此外,我們也預期美洲的商用銷售將較先前指引小幅上升。

  • Moving on to profit and cash guidance on slide 16. There is no change to our outlook with respect to adjusted operating profit, free cash flow or share repurchases. The most notable change here is in CSA, where we now expect full year operating margin of about 19%. The reasons for the reduction in the margin outlook for this segment are the same that Dave and I covered earlier on this call, positive but lower-than-expected price realization and the impact of increased input costs and supply chain challenges. This takes us to our adjusted EPS outlook of $2.85 to $2.90 for the full year.

    接著看第16頁的獲利與現金指引。在調整後營業利益、自由現金流或庫藏股回購方面,我們的展望沒有變化。這裡最顯著的變化在CSA,我們現在預期全年營業利益率約為19%。該事業部門利潤率展望下修的原因,與我和Dave先前在本次電話會議中提到的一樣:價格實現為正但低於預期,以及投入成本上升與供應鏈挑戰的影響。因此,我們將全年調整後每股盈餘(EPS)展望更新為2.85至2.90美元。

  • You will find the full year bridge and additional guide items on slide 19 and 20.

    全年橋接表與其他指引項目詳見第19與第20頁。

  • Finally, moving on to slide 17, our key takeaways. As you can see on this slide, and as Dave mentioned, we are set up well for a strong 2027.

    最後,來到第17頁,我們的重點結論。如同本頁所示、也如Dave所提到的,我們已為2027年的強勁表現做好充分準備。

  • With that, I would ask the operator to open it up for questions.

    接下來,我想請接線員開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Julian Mitchell, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

    Julian Mitchell,摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning Dave and Patrick. Maybe first question would just be around the margin outlook. In the Americas segment, it looks like the guide is implying a sort of maybe low 20s incremental margin year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Just wondered sort of as you look into next year, how quickly do you think that can step up? Or are those price cost headwinds likely to linger for some time?

    嗨,早安,Dave和Patrick。第一個問題想先問利潤率展望。在美洲事業部門,看起來指引暗示第四季的增量利潤率(年對年)大概在20%出頭。想請教你們看向明年時,認為這個水準能多快提升?或者這些價格/成本的逆風可能還會持續一段時間?

  • Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes, Julian. Maybe a comment about the Q4 margins. What we expect to happen in Q4 is similar to what we saw in Q3, i.e. strong organic growth, and we expect that to fall through the bottom line. In Q3, our conversion was a little north of 30%. And the benefit of the IEEPA refunds offset the headwinds we saw from increased input costs lower-than-expected pricing in Q4, and that story is the same for CSA as it is for Carrier.

    是的,Julian。我先評論一下第四季的利潤率。我們預期第四季的情況會與第三季相似,也就是有機成長強勁,並且我們預期這會反映到最終獲利。第三季我們的轉換率略高於30%。IEEPA退稅的效益抵銷了我們在第四季看到的逆風:投入成本上升以及定價低於預期;這個情況對CSA與對Carrier是一樣的。

  • In Q4, the story is very similar, strong organic growth. We'll see the benefits of that, but we no longer see the impact of IEEPA refund to offset increased input cost headwinds and somewhat lower-than-expected pricing. With respect for next year, we think that this will improve sequentially, but I don't think we'll see a snapback in the first or the second quarter.

    第四季的故事非常類似:有機成長強勁。我們會看到這帶來的效益,但我們不再有IEEPA退稅的影響來抵銷投入成本上升的逆風,以及略低於預期的定價。至於明年,我們認為會逐季改善,但我不認為第一季或第二季會出現快速反彈。

  • In terms for outlook for the -- for next year, in general, obviously, it's still a little bit early to say, but the bottom line is the following. We'll have a lot of moving pieces, as you know. We start with a very strong backlog. Short-cycle businesses are improvement. We'll see some carryover headwinds from our input cost.

    就明年的展望而言,整體來說,顯然現在談還稍早一些,但重點如下。如你所知,我們會有很多變動因素。我們以非常強勁的在手訂單(backlog)作為起點。短週期業務正在改善。我們也會承受一些投入成本的延續性逆風。

  • We also mentioned that we're implementing additional price and cost actions. And the bottom line, frankly, is that we'll target double-digit EPS growth. And I think we'll keep it at that for next year rather than talking about margins at this point.

    我們也提到正在推動額外的價格與成本行動。坦白說,重點是我們將以每股盈餘(EPS)雙位數成長為目標。我想明年我們先維持這樣的說法,而不是在此時討論利潤率。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • That's very fair. Thank you. And then just my follow-up would be around that price cost point. So I think you said that the pricing realization has been a little bit underwhelming versus what you had hoped recently, but you also talked about up to 10% price increase to offset higher costs. So maybe just help us sort of understand where is that price sticking and not sticking? And maybe what are you doing differently on price now than before to try and get it to stick better?

    這很合理。謝謝。接著追問一下關於價格與成本的部分。我想你提到近期的價格實現相較你們原先希望的有點不如預期,但你們也談到為了抵銷更高成本,最高可調漲10%。所以能否幫我們理解一下:哪些地方價格能「站得住」,哪些地方站不住?以及你們現在在定價上相較以前做了哪些不同的作法,來讓價格更能落地?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Julian, this is David. Good morning. I assume -- we're primarily focused on resi pricing in CSA. Look, we had last quarter expected mid-single-digit pricing. We ended up realizing low single digits. If you kind of step back and look at what happened this year, we saw a really big and immediate increase in input costs, especially tariffs when that hit us in April.

    好的。Julian,我是David。早安。我想——我們主要聚焦在CSA的住宅(resi)定價。你看,我們在上一季原本預期定價是中個位數成長。最後實現的是低個位數。如果你退一步看今年發生的事,我們看到投入成本出現非常大且立即的上升,尤其是關稅在4月對我們造成衝擊時。

  • And I can't speak for the others, but that did have a big impact on us when the 232 tariffs in April went into effect. And in that month, we pretty much immediately announced and implemented additional price increases. And as Patrick said, the price realization has been improving sequentially, but the pace has been a little bit slower than we expected. We have experienced additional cost increases, things like steel, copper, aluminum, some of the freight charges with the higher fuel prices.

    我無法代表其他公司發言,但對我們而言,4月232條款關稅生效時確實帶來很大影響。在那個月,我們幾乎立刻就宣布並實施了額外的漲價。如Patrick所說,價格實現正逐季改善,但速度比我們預期的慢一些。我們也經歷了額外的成本上升,例如鋼、銅、鋁,以及因燃油價格上升而增加的部分運費。

  • And that's led us to announce additional price increases. It's up to 10% in CSA. I think it's 8% for resi, and that goes into effect towards the end of this quarter. But unlike tariffs, where perhaps we were a bit impacted a bit more, we believe that the additional input costs have likely impacted the entire industry proportionately.

    因此我們宣布了進一步的漲價。在CSA最高可達10%。我認為住宅(resi)是8%,並將在本季末左右生效。但不同於關稅——我們可能受到的影響稍微更大一些——我們相信這些額外的投入成本很可能以相近比例影響整個產業。

  • I would say that in addition to the price increases that we've announced, we've also done a number of other actions as we head into 4Q and we head into 2027. We do have some new pricing tools that help us make very good decisions by customer with some more rigor. There's some AI behind some of that dynamic pricing model that we're using. We've introduced a new brand for over-the-counter sales. It's called WeatherMaker by Carrier, and we're confident that's already gotten some traction, we'll continue to.

    我想說,除了我們已宣布的漲價之外,在邁入第四季以及邁向2027年之際,我們也採取了多項其他行動。我們確實有一些新的定價工具,能以更嚴謹的方法協助我們針對不同客戶做出非常好的決策。我們使用的動態定價模型背後也加入了一些AI。我們也為零售通路(over-the-counter)銷售推出了新品牌。它叫做Carrier的WeatherMaker,我們有信心它已經取得一些進展,並會持續下去。

  • And we have some new and improved side discharge and vertical discharge units. So we -- look, we -- I think this year, we were chasing pricing a little bit, and our plan is to get out in front of it as we go into next year.

    此外,我們也推出一些新的、改良的側出風與直出風機型。所以——你看——我認為今年我們在定價上有點是在追著成本跑,而我們的計畫是在進入明年時要走在前面。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Davis, Melius Research. (Operator Instructions)

    Scott Davis,Melius Research。(接線員指示)

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hey, Scott. You there?

    嘿,Scott。你在線上嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll move to the next caller.

    我們將轉到下一位來電者。

  • Nigel Coe, Wolfe.

    Nigel Coe,Wolfe。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for the question. I guess Scott is speechless this morning. So just coming back to the price and, obviously, looking to push price looks to be fairly aggressive in 2027, but it seems like the pricing power in residential has really deteriorated. So I'm just wondering how we sort of reconcile that dichotomy? And then just on top of that, Dave, maybe just talk about what is the principal problem in resi? Is it really the consumer is tapped out the competition, we hear about Asian imports. What is the big problem right now on realizing price in resi?

    早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想Scott今天早上無話可說。回到定價的問題,顯然在2027年推動漲價看起來相當積極,但住宅端的定價能力似乎已明顯惡化。所以我想知道,我們該如何調和這種矛盾?另外,Dave,能否談談住宅(resi)目前的主要問題是什麼?是消費者已經到極限、還是競爭因素?我們也聽到一些關於亞洲進口的說法。目前住宅端在價格實現上最大的問題到底是什麼?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Look, Nigel, I would say, the resi business is a great business. I think that if you look at what's happened this year, the input cost increases impacting that specific business were very significant and very, very sudden. So we all -- and I could just speak for us, for Carrier. I know that for us, we, of course, raised price coming into the year.

    是的。你看,Nigel,我會說,住宅(resi)業務是一門很棒的生意。我認為,如果你看看今年發生的情況,投入成本上升對那個特定業務的影響非常顯著,而且非常、非常突然。所以我們大家——我只能代表我們自己,也就是 Carrier。我知道對我們而言,我們當然在年初就調漲了價格。

  • And when we saw those additional input cost increases, we announced additional pricing and we've gotten more pricing this year than we expected coming into the year, but just not as much to cover what were pretty extreme impacts from things like tariffs and inflation.

    而當我們看到那些額外的投入成本上升時,我們宣布了進一步的漲價;今年我們取得的定價(漲價)幅度比年初預期的還要多,但仍不足以覆蓋像關稅與通膨這類因素帶來的相當極端的衝擊。

  • The market -- the business is a great business. It's a business that we have really good share in, and that we continue to introduce new products, system offerings, digital solutions have been coming and will continue to be forthcoming. And it's a very, very unique and good business. I think that this year was a bit extreme and that price cost dynamic. But I think these questions around has something fundamentally changed in resi, I would tell you, the answer is no.

    市場——這門業務是一門很棒的生意。我們在這個業務上有非常好的市占率,而且我們持續推出新產品、系統方案;數位解決方案也已推出並將持續推出。這是一個非常、非常獨特且優質的業務。我認為今年在價格與成本的動態上有點極端。但對於「住宅業務是否有什麼根本性的改變」這類問題,我會告訴你,答案是否定的。

  • And as we look into next year, we're very clear eyed about the carryover inflation, the expected inflation, the carryover tariff impact. So yes, we announced an 8% price increase effective later this quarter. And I expect us to be incredibly disciplined and tenacious going forward, both on price and all things productivity and supply chain resiliency. So yes, this year, we -- it impacted our margins. I feel very confident in the margin profile of this business.

    而當我們展望明年時,我們非常清楚地看待遞延通膨、預期通膨,以及遞延的關稅影響。所以是的,我們宣布了 8% 的漲價,於本季稍晚生效。我預期我們未來在價格,以及所有生產力與供應鏈韌性相關事項上,都會極其自律且堅持到底。所以是的,今年——它影響了我們的利潤率。我對這項業務的利潤率輪廓非常有信心。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Okay. That's great, Dave. And then obviously, recognizing that price cost is the major driver of the Americas margin kind of revision. How much though is coming from mix of commercial? And I'm curious about the data center investment ramp specifically. I'm just wondering if that is also a factor? And then just kind of feather in how this new Texas facility might impact margins going into 2027?

    好的。很棒,Dave。然後很明顯,考量到價格/成本是美洲區利潤率調整的主要驅動因素。不過,其中有多少是來自商用(commercial)產品組合(mix)的影響?我也特別好奇資料中心投資加速(ramp)的情況。我只是想知道那是否也是一個因素?另外,也請順帶談談這座新的德州廠在邁向 2027 年時可能如何影響利潤率?

  • Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Nigel, Patrick here. Within the Americas, mix was not a big driver in Q3 from a margin perspective, actually, it was close to neutral. The cost this year of the new facility, there will be a couple of pennies in line with what we said basically last quarter. And then for next year, in terms of the margin profile, as I mentioned to Julian, we're not ready on this call to talk about margins for next year. There will be lots of puts and takes. We're targeting double-digit EPS growth.

    Nigel,我是 Patrick。在美洲區,從利潤率角度來看,第三季產品組合並不是主要驅動因素,實際上接近中性。今年新廠的成本,會有幾個「分」(pennies)的影響,基本上與我們上季所說的一致。至於明年,就利潤率輪廓而言,如同我對 Julian 提到的,我們在這通電話上還沒準備好談明年的利潤率。會有很多正負因素拉扯。我們的目標是 EPS 兩位數成長。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Okay, guys. Thanks a lot.

    好的,各位。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Tusa, Wells Fargo.

    Steve Tusa,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。

  • Steve Tusa - Analyst

    Steve Tusa - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks. Great to be back. So just on this resi business, and you mentioned the side discharge product. Can you just talk about the market dynamics there? I know you guys have had a product for a little while, how you're approaching that strategically? And what percentage of the market out of that 7.5 million to 8 million unit market, what percentage do you see at it today? And where do you see that going in the next few years?

    嗨,早安。謝謝。很高興回來。那就這個住宅業務來說,你提到了側出風(side discharge)產品。你能談談那裡的市場動態嗎?我知道你們已經有這個產品一段時間了,你們在策略上是如何切入的?另外,在那個 750 萬到 800 萬台的市場中,你們認為側出風目前占比大概是多少?以及你們認為未來幾年會走向哪裡?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, good morning, Steve. We do see an increased demand for the side discharge product. And it's mostly the ductless product, but also this unit that we call as a crossover. I know you've been asking since we spun about the hybrid units, which -- that you are right, that continues to gain more traction, and we feel really good about our product portfolio on that ductless hybrid area. It's very good margin for us. We have a very good position.

    早安,Steve。我們確實看到對側出風產品的需求在增加。主要是無風管(ductless)產品,但也包括我們稱之為 crossover 的這種機型。我知道自從我們分拆以來你一直在問混合式(hybrid)機型——你說得沒錯,它持續獲得更多動能,而我們對在無風管混合式這個領域的產品組合感到非常有信心。對我們而言,這是非常好的毛利。我們有非常好的市場地位。

  • We have a long-standing partnership with Midea. We work closely with Paul and his team on that space, and we continue to be pleased with that partnership, which we fully expect will continue. And we continue to have a great product offering.

    我們與美的(Midea)有長期的合作夥伴關係。我們在那個領域與 Paul 及其團隊密切合作,我們持續對這段合作關係感到滿意,也完全預期它會延續下去。而且我們持續提供很棒的產品組合。

  • One of the great things about the Toshiba acquisition is they have a complete set of technology that fits perfectly for that side discharge unit. So we're using a lot of the technology for introduction here in the United States. So we're very well positioned. It's a good and growing market. And look, it's probably -- in terms of your question of what percent of the overall market, it's probably about 20% of the 8 million or so that we're going to see this year, the 8 million market. The market is 7.5 million to 8 million, and I think it's about 20%.

    東芝(Toshiba)併購案的一大優點是,他們擁有一整套技術,與側出風機型完全契合。因此我們正在把大量技術用於在美國的產品導入。所以我們的布局非常到位。這是一個良好且成長中的市場。而且你問到它占整體市場的比例——大概是今年我們預期看到約 800 萬台市場中的 20% 左右,也就是那個 800 萬台的市場。市場規模是 750 萬到 800 萬台,我認為大約是 20%。

  • Steve Tusa - Analyst

    Steve Tusa - Analyst

  • Got it. And how does that work with Midea? Because I think that they have their own brands that are out there. How is that like structured? Are you -- are there certain regions of the country where you have exclusive distribution? Or like is it just a -- you stick -- you put your sticker on it and it just goes and competes in the wild? Or how is that structured?

    了解。那這跟美的(Midea)的合作是怎麼運作的?因為我想他們也有自己的品牌在市場上。這種合作架構是怎麼設計的?你們是否在美國某些地區擁有獨家經銷/配銷權?還是說就是——你們貼上自己的標籤,然後就直接在市場上自由競爭?或是它的架構是怎樣?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I can't, Steve, get too into the details of it. But what I will say is that it's been a great partnership. They have technology. We have a certain relationship as it relates to both Carrier branded and Midea branding, some through our channels, some through others. And we're just -- we're pleased that the partnership has positioned us very well in the ductless space and that hybrid space, and we expect that to continue.

    是的。Steve,我不能把細節講得太深入。但我可以說,這一直是一段很棒的合作關係。他們有技術。我們在 Carrier 品牌與美的品牌方面有特定的合作關係:有些透過我們的通路,有些透過其他通路。而我們很高興這段合作讓我們在無風管領域以及混合式領域都處於非常有利的位置,而且我們預期會持續如此。

  • Steve Tusa - Analyst

    Steve Tusa - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. Thanks for the detail. Appreciate it.

    了解。好,謝謝你提供的細節。感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

    Joe Ritchie,高盛(Goldman Sachs)。

  • Joe Ritchie - Analyst

    Joe Ritchie - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning, guys. Hey. So Dave, can you just elaborate a little bit on the LTAs that you signed? You mentioned minimum volume commitments. I'm just curious if there's like a -- is there a margin profile of that business? And then like what pricing mechanisms do you have embedded in those contracts? I'm basically asking how protected you are against input cost inflation over the life of the LTAs.

    謝謝。各位早安。嘿,Dave,你能再多說一點你們簽下的長期協議(LTA)嗎?你提到了最低採購量承諾。我想了解是否有——那塊業務的利潤率輪廓是什麼樣子?另外,這些合約裡嵌入了哪些定價機制?我基本上是在問:在 LTA 的整個期間內,面對投入成本通膨,你們的保護程度有多高?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I think -- we feel well protected, both on the minimum volume side of it and on the margin side. The margins for our data center business, those applied sales, they're accretive to our overall applied margins. And look, we're not blind to the fact that we've been in an inflationary environment. So that does weigh into how we contract with our customers to make sure that we do our best to not get stuck eating that as inflation continues to increase. So we feel well protected both on the load side as we invest in new capacity, and we feel well protected on the margin side.

    是的。我認為——我們覺得保護做得很到位,不論是在最低量承諾那一端,或是在利潤率那一端。我們資料中心業務的利潤率——那些應用端(applied)的銷售——對我們整體 applied 利潤率是增益的(accretive)。而且你看,我們並不是看不到我們一直處在通膨環境中這個事實。所以這也會反映在我們與客戶簽約的方式上,以確保我們盡最大努力,不會在通膨持續上升時被迫自行吸收成本。因此,當我們投資新增產能時,我們在負載(load)面覺得保護很到位;在利潤率面我們也覺得保護很到位。

  • Look, if you look at -- I'm really proud of the team. A couple of these -- a number of these hyperscalers, when we started talking to them a few years ago, I'll tell you one of them that I met with asked, are we in the chiller market. Now we have two hyperscalers that have said to us that we are amongst, if not their favorite partner across their entire supply chain, and it's because of what we do to not only deliver on time, deliver high-quality, reliable product.

    你看,如果你看——我真的為團隊感到自豪。其中有幾家——不少這些超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers),在我們幾年前開始跟他們接觸時,我跟你說,我見過的其中一家還問我們:我們是不是做冷水機(chiller)市場的。現在有兩家超大規模雲端業者跟我們說,在他們整個供應鏈中,我們是他們最喜歡的合作夥伴之一,甚至可能是最喜歡的,而這是因為我們所做的不只是準時交付,還能交付高品質、可靠的產品。

  • We delivered products. In some cases, we design and develop products that would have taken 18 months, we did them in 6 months. And when the customer was there to witness the first-of-kind testing, we exceeded the competition and the spec in terms of restart time and operating at full efficiency at high ambient temperatures, and we continue to support our customers. These 2- and 3-megawatt air cool chillers have been very, very well received by key customers. It's resulted in great orders.

    我們把產品交付出去了。在某些情況下,我們設計並開發原本需要 18 個月的產品,我們在 6 個月內就完成。而當客戶在現場見證首台(first-of-kind)測試時,我們在重啟時間以及在高環境溫度下滿效率運轉等方面,都超越了競爭對手與規格要求,而且我們持續支援客戶。這些 2 兆瓦與 3 兆瓦的氣冷式冷水機(air-cooled chillers)獲得關鍵客戶非常、非常好的回饋。這也帶來了很好的訂單。

  • We support them through commissioning. And then even after we commission and the data centers up and running, we stay there shoulder to shoulder with our customer to ensure that the units are performing as they expect. So they appreciate the customer support.

    我們在試運轉(commissioning)期間支援他們。然後即使完成試運轉、資料中心已經上線運作之後,我們仍然與客戶並肩作戰,確保機組表現符合他們的預期。所以他們很重視我們的客戶支援。

  • So we've been winning, and now we're at a point where our execution is helping us drive more wins in the marketplace. So we're really excited with the backlog. So I'm sorry, Joe, to give such a long answer to a simple question, but I do -- I'm really proud of the fact that these wins have resulted in the backlog that position us extremely well for these next few years.

    所以我們一直在贏,而現在我們也到了這樣一個階段:我們的執行力正在幫助我們在市場上拿下更多勝利。因此我們對在手訂單(backlog)感到非常振奮。所以,Joe,抱歉對一個簡單問題給了這麼長的回答,但我確實——我真的為這些勝利所帶來的在手訂單感到自豪,這讓我們在未來幾年具備非常好的定位。

  • Joe Ritchie - Analyst

    Joe Ritchie - Analyst

  • Okay. No, great, Dave. I appreciate the color. And I guess maybe just -- I know we've talked a little bit about the pricing and also input cost inflation. You did reference supply chain challenges at all. I was wondering if there was anything specific products that -- or components that you're struggling to get access to today? Or is it more just around kind of like ramping your own capacity, just given the strength that you're seeing in the data center business?

    好的。不,這很好,Dave。我很感謝你補充的細節。我想也許再問一下——我知道我們稍微談過定價以及投入成本通膨。你也提到供應鏈挑戰。我想知道目前是否有任何特定產品——或零組件——你們今天仍然很難取得?還是說更多是因為你們在資料中心業務看到的強勁需求,所以主要挑戰在於提升自有產能的爬坡?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I would say that if you look at the fact that we introduced these new 2- or 3-megawatt air-cooled chillers over the past, say, four months or so, that there have been some initial teething pains with the supply chain. And that's not unusual for your first production units because it's hard to dual source right out of the gate.

    是的。我會說,如果你看我們在過去大概四個月左右推出這些新的 2 或 3 兆瓦氣冷式冷水機,你會看到供應鏈在初期確實有一些磨合期的問題。而這對於第一批量產機組並不罕見,因為一開始就做到雙來源供應(dual source)是很困難的。

  • So as I look ahead, here's the things that I feel really good about. Number one is that the designs are -- they're all complete and we're shipping the units. I look at the war room that we have for all things data center production. We are on track to the internal commitments we've made on dual and multisourcing. We're on track to a very specific materials management strategy of what parts do we want, where in the world. And the design is behind us, and that's been resulting in the tack time in our factories coming way down significantly, like kind of night and day.

    所以展望未來,我對幾件事感覺非常好。第一,設計——都已經完成,我們也正在出貨機組。我看我們針對所有資料中心生產事項所設立的「作戰室」(war room)。我們在雙來源與多來源供應(dual and multisourcing)方面,正按我們內部承諾的進度推進。我們也正按一套非常明確的物料管理策略在走:我們想要哪些零件、放在全球哪些地方。而設計階段已經過去,這也讓我們工廠的節拍時間(takt time)大幅下降,幾乎是天壤之別。

  • So have there, were there some initial issues? Yes, things like fans and a couple of other components, where we've had to fly units that we otherwise would have put on a ship. Yes, there have been some of that upfront, and that has impacted some of the input costs that we've seen. But as we go into 2027, a lot of those initial teething pain should start to subside, now that we've implemented that we can do more of our dual sourcing, and we start to see more materials in the places that we want them. And the design is now, of course, stable and we're producing the units at more rate.

    所以一開始有沒有一些問題?有的,例如風扇以及其他幾個零組件,我們不得不把原本會走海運的機組改成空運。是的,前期確實有一些這樣的情況,也影響了我們看到的部分投入成本。但隨著我們進入 2027 年,很多初期的磨合痛點應該會開始消退,因為我們已經落實後,就能做更多雙來源供應,並開始在我們希望的地點看到更多物料到位。而且設計現在當然也已穩定,我們正以更高的產出速率生產機組。

  • Joe Ritchie - Analyst

    Joe Ritchie - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you, guys.

    了解。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Davis, Melius Research.

    Scott Davis,Melius Research。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • All right. Can you finally hear me, guys? Phone wasn't muted, I promise. Anyway, I'll move on. So look, I wanted to ask about this Fort Worth facility and the timing of it and such because -- I guess the main question being, does this allow you to bid on or at least more stuff or more aggressively? Or is it more done just to kind of release perhaps some of the overburden on your other facilities that are running pretty hot right now?

    好。各位現在終於聽得到我了嗎?我保證電話沒有靜音。不管怎樣,我繼續。我想問一下這個 Fort Worth 廠房以及它的時程等,因為——我想主要問題是:這是否讓你們能夠投標更多案子,或至少在投標時更積極?還是說這更多只是為了釋放你們其他目前運轉非常滿載的廠房的一些負擔?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • It's both. We -- if you look at the investments, Scott, that we've made in the Americas, we've increased our capacity significantly over these last few years, both for air-cooled and water-cooled chillers, but given our backlog and given our pipeline, it's just not enough to keep up with all the demand.

    兩者都有。Scott,如果你看我們在美洲所做的投資,過去幾年我們的產能已經顯著提升,無論是氣冷式或水冷式冷水機,但考量我們的在手訂單以及我們的商機管線(pipeline),這仍不足以滿足所有需求。

  • So Fort Worth, we have a great relationship with Ross Perot, Jr. and the Hillwood team in this AllianceTexas area. The facility shell should be complete here in the coming months. And then we'll do all the tenant improvements and be up and running here by mid to late summer of next year. And that's to keep up not only with the backlog that we've committed to over these coming couple of years, but it's also to keep up with the pipeline and the win rate that we're seeing. It's going to effectively more than double our capacity in the Americas, which we need, and it's a wonderful problem to have, all the growth that we've seen.

    所以 Fort Worth 方面,我們與 Ross Perot, Jr. 以及 Hillwood 團隊在 AllianceTexas 這個區域有很好的合作關係。廠房的建築外殼(shell)應該會在接下來幾個月內完工。接著我們會進行所有承租方改善工程(tenant improvements),並在明年夏季中後期投入運轉。這不僅是為了跟上我們在未來幾年已承諾要交付的在手訂單,也是為了跟上我們看到的商機管線與得標率(win rate)。它將有效地讓我們在美洲的產能增加到超過兩倍,這是我們所需要的;而以我們看到的成長來說,這是一個很棒的「幸福的煩惱」。

  • And important point, Scott, is that it is not just for data centers. I mentioned that our growth in orders for non-data centers last quarter was 20%. And we've actually, frankly, been constraining ourselves a little bit because of capacity in the non-data center space, things like semiconductor fab, hospitality, higher education, a lot of these key verticals where we're really well positioned with the product portfolio we've built. We've had to constrain our sales folks a little bit. The capacity can free up a lot of space for those wins as well.

    而且很重要的一點,Scott,這不只是為了資料中心。我提到過,我們上一季非資料中心的訂單成長是 20%。而且坦白說,由於非資料中心領域的產能限制——例如半導體晶圓廠(fab)、飯店旅宿、高等教育等——這些我們憑藉已建立的產品組合而具備良好定位的關鍵垂直市場,我們其實稍微自我約束了一些。我們不得不稍微限制我們的銷售團隊。新增的產能也能為這些贏單釋放出更多空間。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • Yeah. That makes sense. And David, it looks like Europe is showing some -- more than green shoots, I suppose, I should say, but they're behind the states and the ramp on DC, but they're coming. Do you feel like you have the capacity and the infrastructure in place to be able to supply that? Or do you need to get ahead of that also with some capacity adds around something similar like you did in Fort Worth?

    是的。這很合理。David,看起來歐洲正在出現一些——我想不只是些許萌芽(green shoots),但他們在資料中心(DC)的爬坡上仍落後於美國,不過正在追上。你覺得你們已具備足夠的產能與基礎設施來供應那邊嗎?還是你們也需要像 Fort Worth 那樣,提前做一些產能擴增?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. What we look at, Scott, is we do a pretty good SIOP planning for our global capacity for all things commercial HVAC. So we have capacity in France in Montluel. We have capacity in Poland. It's primarily been for residential, but it could free itself up for commercial capacity as well.

    是的。Scott,我們的做法是:針對所有商用 HVAC 的全球產能,我們有做相當完善的 SIOP(銷售、庫存與營運規劃)規劃。我們在法國 Montluel 有產能。我們在波蘭也有產能。

  • It's something that we're looking at. And then we have capacity in places like China, Mexico, multiple, now we'll have the US. So as we look at it, we're doing our best to -- we're, of course, building in Sri City in -- near Chennai in India. So we're doing our best to maximize the capacity we have.

    這是我們正在評估的事情。此外,我們在中國、墨西哥等多個地點都有產能,現在也將在美國有產能。因此在我們檢視這件事時,我們正盡最大努力——當然,我們也正在印度清奈附近的 Sri City 建廠。所以我們正盡最大努力把現有產能最大化。

  • We may look at Eastern Europe for a little bit more for the demand we're seeing in Europe. I will tell you that we have plenty of capacity on the residential side. Max Viessmann and the team started in, we kind of saw it through, but in Legnica, Poland. I will tell you, it is the single most state-of-the-art industrial site that I have ever seen. It's highly automated, highly impressive. So we're trying to maximize a lot of our residential heat pump demand that we're seeing in that site. And that site, I encourage folks to visit. It's quite impressive.

    針對我們在歐洲看到的需求,我們可能也會考慮在東歐再增加一些布局。我可以告訴你,我們在住宅端的產能非常充足。Max Viessmann 和團隊在波蘭萊格尼察(Legnica)啟動了這個項目,我們也一路參與並推進。我可以告訴你,那是我見過最先進的單一工業基地。自動化程度非常高,非常令人印象深刻。因此,我們正努力在那個基地最大化我們所看到的住宅熱泵需求。我也鼓勵大家去參觀那個基地。真的相當令人驚豔。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • Okay, I appreciate it. Maybe make a trip. Best of luck, guys.

    好的,感謝。也許我會安排一趟行程。祝各位好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

    Andy Kaplowitz,花旗集團。

  • Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. Dave, just focusing a little more in CSE. I mean, it was nice to see the margins pick up, as you said, organic sales growth double digits. Maybe give a little more color into the improvements the team has begun to make and the visibility into continued heat pump and air conditioning improvement in '27?

    各位早安。Dave,我想再多聚焦一下 CSE。看到毛利率如你所說有所回升、內生銷售成長達到雙位數,這很不錯。能否再多分享一些團隊已開始推動的改善措施,以及對於 2027 年熱泵與空調持續改善的能見度?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I'd say -- let me start on the growth side and then the cost side. On the growth side, as you said, Andy, we're kind of having the moment that we had expected a few years back. It's just coming later than we expected. Heat pump, up 35% in the quarter. Very, very strong in Germany, of course, we're well positioned.

    好的,我會先從成長面談起,再談成本面。在成長面,如你所說,Andy,我們某種程度上正迎來幾年前就預期會出現的那個時刻。只是比我們原先預期來得更晚。本季熱泵成長 35%。在德國表現非常、非常強勁,當然我們的布局也很到位。

  • Air conditioning, long overdue, but that plays right to our strength. So air conditioning up close to 35% in the quarter. We think that continues, given, of course, what we saw this past summer. So both, not only the Toshiba product that is a really good business for us in Europe, but we've now introduced the Viessmann branded air conditioning that we can put through our traditional channels. So we have Toshiba through its distribution channel and the direct-to-installer selling air conditioning.

    空調方面,這個趨勢早就該出現了,但它正好切中我們的強項。因此本季空調也成長接近 35%。考量到我們今年夏天看到的情況,我們認為這個趨勢會延續。所以不只是東芝(Toshiba)產品在歐洲對我們而言是一門很好的生意,我們也已推出 Viessmann 品牌的空調,可透過我們傳統通路銷售。因此,我們一方面透過東芝的經銷通路,另一方面也透過直接面向安裝商的方式銷售空調。

  • So -- and then boilers, down. We had always thought it'd be down kind of in the mid-single-digit range. It was down high single digits in the quarter. So pretty much as expected. And the ratio of electricity to natural gas at about 2.5 in Germany. So that's favorable for continued heat pump adoption. So demand very, very good right now, and we saw with resi sales up about 13%.

    至於鍋爐,則是下滑。我們原本一直認為大概會落在中個位數的下滑幅度。本季下滑為高個位數。因此大致符合預期。另外,在德國電力相對天然氣的比價約為 2.5。這有利於熱泵持續滲透。所以目前需求非常、非常好,我們也看到住宅銷售約成長 13%。

  • On the cost side, Thomas Donato and the team are very clear about a very comprehensive cost-out program. So it's a combination of we do have to look at footprint optimization, of course. We are working our supply chain in a very, very rigorous way. We have a very broad network of suppliers globally, and we got to make sure that we optimize that for Europe. And then it's still -- if you look at the G&A that we have across Carrier, it's our highest G&A segment that we have.

    在成本面,Thomas Donato 和團隊對於一個非常全面的降本計畫有非常清楚的方向。因此這是多管齊下的組合,當然我們必須檢視產能/據點(footprint)最佳化。我們也以非常、非常嚴謹的方式在改善供應鏈。我們在全球有非常廣泛的供應商網絡,必須確保針對歐洲進行最佳化。此外,如果你看 Carrier 全公司的 G&A(一般及行政費用),CSE 是我們 G&A 最高的事業部門。

  • So there's still opportunity there. So Thomas is working a very, very comprehensive plan on the cost takeout to get us back to the margin levels that we had always expected. It won't happen overnight, but we will sequentially continue to drive the margins year-over-year improvements that we expect.

    所以那裡仍有改善空間。因此 Thomas 正在推動一個非常、非常全面的成本削減計畫,讓我們回到我們一直預期的毛利率水準。這不會一蹴可幾,但我們會逐季推進,並持續帶來我們所預期的年對年毛利率改善。

  • Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe back to CSA like commercial, I think it was up high single digits. You guys said. I think, Dave, you've said it would be up mid-single. So it's been trending a little bit better than the whole year. Maybe give us sort of focus on like what is going on here? And what do you expect moving forward? What markets are sort of driving that strength, would you say?

    很好。接著回到 CSA(偏商用)這塊,我記得你們說是高個位數成長。你們有提到。我想 Dave 你之前說過全年會是中個位數成長。所以看起來趨勢比全年假設還要好一些。能否請你聚焦說明一下這裡到底發生了什麼?以及你對未來的預期?你認為是哪些市場在帶動這股強勢?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. We were up a little bit more than we thought, and this year is shaping up to be up probably about 10%, and we thought it was going to be down high single digits or so. What's better than we thought is K-12. That had been very strong, then it got very weak, and now that's returning quicker and better than we had thought.

    是的。我們的表現比原先想的好一些,而今年的走勢看起來可能會成長約 10%;我們原本以為會下滑高個位數左右。比我們預期更好的部分是 K-12(中小學)。那一塊之前非常強,後來變得很弱,而現在回升的速度與力道都比我們想的更快、更好。

  • The good news is that we've been winning a lot in some of our strategic national accounts. In fact, as soon as we end this call, I'm going to get on a plane and go meet with the strategic national accounts. So we've been winning. We've been very aggressive on some of our portfolio replacement programs, very structured programs. We've gotten some nice share gains. Retail is good. Health care is good. And as I mentioned, K-12.

    另一個好消息是,我們在一些策略性全國型客戶(strategic national accounts)上贏得了很多案子。事實上,這通電話一結束,我就要搭飛機去和這些策略性全國型客戶會面。所以我們一直在贏單。我們在一些產品組合汰換計畫(portfolio replacement programs)上也非常積極,這些都是非常有架構的方案。我們取得了一些不錯的市占提升。零售表現不錯。醫療保健也不錯。以及我提到的 K-12。

  • What's also encouraging is that field inventory is very, very healthy. We ended 3Q down 20%. So we feel good about this space, and 4Q should be up about 20%. It could be up even a bit more than that because customer demand has been strong. So it's nice to see some of the recovery in this light commercial space. And you know that's a good margin business for us.

    同樣令人鼓舞的是,通路端庫存非常、非常健康。我們在第三季末的庫存年減 20%。因此我們對這個領域感覺良好,而第四季應該會成長約 20%。甚至可能還會更高一些,因為客戶需求一直很強。所以很高興看到這個輕型商用市場出現一些復甦。而你也知道,這對我們來說是毛利率很好的業務。

  • Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Appreciate the color, Dave.

    謝謝你的補充說明,Dave。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe O'Dea, Vertical Research.

    Joe O'Dea,Vertical Research。

  • Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

    Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. First question, just related to the inflation you've seen year-to-date, that $0.55 to $0.60 on input costs and tariffs. Could you give a little bit of color of the split between the two? How much of that is tariffs? And then looking forward, how do you think about the inflationary headwinds? Any perspective on sizing, what is still to come as hedges roll off or you just start to absorb a little bit more of the inflation that's out there on the input cost side?

    嗨,早安。第一個問題是關於你們今年迄今看到的通膨,也就是投入成本與關稅帶來每股 0.55 到 0.60 美元的影響。你能否多分享一下兩者之間的拆分?其中有多少是關稅?另外往前看,你們如何看待通膨逆風?在規模上有沒有什麼看法——例如當避險到期,或你們開始吸收更多投入成本端的通膨時,後續還會有多少影響?

  • Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, Joe, this is Patrick. What you saw on the slide that you were referring to is the incremental input cost headwinds versus the February guide. But that guide had some input cost headwinds in it. If you look at it from a full year perspective, our input cost headwinds are about $800 million. Of that, a little less than half is tariffs. And so some of the input costs, of course, relate to fuel surcharge and material costs and so on, but that is the -- a high-level number, 800, a little less than that is tariffs.

    好的,Joe,我是 Patrick。你在投影片上看到、你所提到的是相較於 2 月指引的新增投入成本逆風。但那份指引本身就已包含一些投入成本逆風。如果從全年角度來看,我們的投入成本逆風大約是 8 億美元。其中略低於一半是關稅。因此,部分投入成本當然與燃油附加費、材料成本等相關;但就高層次來說,這個數字是 8 億,其中略低於一半來自關稅。

  • For next year, we expect there to be a carryover inflation. As you know, some of these tariffs didn't go into effect until April or so of this year. And so from a planning purposes, we are assuming that we'll have another large headwind of inflation next year as we have this year.

    針對明年,我們預期會有通膨的遞延效應。如各位所知,其中一些關稅直到今年大約4月才開始生效。因此,從規劃角度來看,我們假設明年仍將面臨如同今年一樣、另一波重大的通膨逆風。

  • Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

    Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then Dave, just in terms of developments in the US resi HVAC market this summer, it seems like -- it just appears like there was a pretty sharp change in the status quo in that market in a relatively short period of time, in that the industry has long been considered to have a strong ability to get price for cost inflation, managed through a lot of inflation over the last five years.

    這很有幫助。接著Dave,就今年夏天美國住宅(resi)HVAC市場的發展而言,看起來——也就是表面上看——該市場在相對短的時間內,既有狀態似乎出現了相當明顯的變化;而長期以來,業界一直被認為具備很強的能力,能把成本通膨反映到價格上,並且在過去五年中透過這種方式消化了大量通膨。

  • On the competition side, non-US competition has been part of the conversation for a while, but it appears that maybe it's a little bit more relevant now than it has been in the past. And so the question is just what changed over the last several months for that status quo to potentially have shifted a little bit? And this is more transitory or is this a longer duration impact?

    在競爭面上,非美國的競爭者已經討論了一段時間,但看起來現在可能比過去更具相關性。所以問題是:過去幾個月到底發生了什麼,讓這種既有狀態可能出現一些轉變?這是較短暫的現象,還是影響會持續更久?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Look, I will tell you, I do not believe there has been a fundamental change in the nature of this business. We work with a number of phenomenal distributors and we have over 100,000 dealers. And the nature of the selling process in the Americas and the United States has not changed. So if you look at it, what happened this year was very, very unique.

    你看,我可以告訴你,我不認為這個業務的本質發生了根本性的改變。我們與許多非常出色的經銷商合作,而且我們有超過10萬家經銷商(dealers)。在美洲與美國的銷售流程本質並沒有改變。所以如果你回頭看,今年發生的事情非常、非常特殊。

  • When you wake up in April and all of a sudden that you have a sudden influx -- a sudden increase in input costs that is in the hundreds of millions of dollars, that it proved to be very difficult to offset dollar for dollar right away. So we knew that there would be some challenges offsetting dollar for dollar, the increase not only driven by tariffs, but we also saw -- where we saw a sudden and fairly unexpected increase in things like copper, steel and aluminum, and then it was exacerbated by some of the fuel surcharges.

    當你在4月醒來,突然面臨——投入成本突然暴增——而且增幅高達數億美元時,要立刻做到一美元對一美元地完全抵消,確實非常困難。所以我們知道在短期內要一比一抵消會有一些挑戰;這些上升不僅由關稅驅動,我們也看到——例如銅、鋼與鋁等材料出現突然且相當出乎意料的上漲,此外又被一些燃料附加費進一步加劇。

  • So what you want to do in this business is have a good anticipation of what the input cost will be and get out in front on pricing, and we've always been able to do that, and we expect to be able to do that next year. So that's why, normally, we would have announced our price increases for 1Q. We've made them effective in 4Q. We're going very clear eyed into some of the price cost challenges next year that we didn't fully foresee this year.

    因此,在這個產業你要做的是:對投入成本有良好的預判,並在定價上提前布局;我們一直都能做到,也預期明年仍能做到。所以這也是為什麼,通常我們會宣布第一季的漲價,但這次我們讓它在第四季就生效。我們對明年可能出現的價格與成本挑戰保持非常清醒的認知,而這些在今年我們並未完全預見。

  • So for me, that's just -- we didn't fully anticipate the level of input cost increases that we were going to see this year. We believe we have a much better handle on it next year, and we're going to get out in front of it pricing. That's not a fundamental change in the nature of this market. Is there more ductless than there had been in the past? Yes.

    所以對我而言,這只是——我們沒有完全預期今年會看到如此幅度的投入成本上升。我們相信明年我們能掌握得更好,並且會在定價上提前因應。這並不是這個市場本質上的根本改變。無風管(ductless)的比重是否比過去更高?是的。

  • Do we make great margins and are we really positioned on that side? For sure. So we feel very well positioned in the market, and we think the dynamics of the market are fundamentally the same as they have always been.

    我們在那一塊的毛利是否很高、而且定位是否非常到位?當然。所以我們覺得自己在市場上的定位非常好,也認為市場的動態在根本上與以往一直以來相同。

  • Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

    Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

  • That's great color. Thank you.

    這些補充很有參考價值。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

    美國銀行(Bank of America)的Andrew Obin。

  • Andrew Obin - Analyst

    Andrew Obin - Analyst

  • Good morning. How are you? Maybe going to Europe and just talking about what are you seeing on boilers. I think you sort of talked about that, that market is -- is it getting better? Can you just give us more color because obviously, important to profitability and what's the momentum like in that market?

    早安。你好嗎?也許談談歐洲,想請教你們在鍋爐(boilers)方面看到什麼情況。我想你剛才有稍微提到,那個市場——它是在改善嗎?能否再多給我們一些細節,因為這顯然對獲利能力很重要;另外那個市場的動能如何?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Look, I think the fundamental shift is to heat pumps. So we've always expected boilers to decline. Will it be low, mid, high single digits as we go forward? It's going to be somewhere in that range. But we expect that boilers will decline.

    你看,我認為根本性的轉變是往熱泵(heat pumps)移動。所以我們一直預期鍋爐會下滑。未來會是低個位數、中個位數或高個位數的下滑?大概會落在那個區間。但我們預期鍋爐會下滑。

  • If you're replacing an existing boiler, you're much more likely nowadays, whether it's because of some of the subsidies or because some of the regulation or because of the instability around fuel prices and oil prices, you are much more likely to want to shift to a heat pump, if you possibly can. And that is not just in Germany. We're seeing the same in Italy, we're seeing the same in Spain and Poland and Benelux. So very, very good demand for heat pumps almost throughout Europe, and that's going to naturally have an impact on boilers. I think it will -- the declines will be in the single-digit range, and it will probably be somewhere in the mid, sometimes it will be closer to high.

    如果你是在汰換既有鍋爐,如今你更可能——不論是因為某些補貼、某些法規,或是燃料價格與油價的不穩定——在可行的情況下更傾向改用熱泵。而這不只是在德國。我們在義大利也看到同樣情況,在西班牙與波蘭以及比荷盧(Benelux)也一樣。因此,幾乎整個歐洲對熱泵的需求都非常、非常強勁,而這自然會對鍋爐造成影響。我認為下滑幅度會在個位數區間,可能多數時候落在中個位數,有時會更接近高個位數。

  • I will mention -- yeah, if I may. The margins are very good on heat pumps, too. Obviously, good margins on boilers, but the new heat pump that we just introduced in Europe, I mentioned this Vitocal 200A, those margins are very good as well.

    我補充一下——是的,如果可以的話。熱泵的毛利也非常好。鍋爐的毛利當然也不錯,但我們剛在歐洲推出的新款熱泵——我提到的Vitocal 200A——其毛利表現也非常好。

  • Andrew Obin - Analyst

    Andrew Obin - Analyst

  • Thank you. And just a follow-up on commercial HVAC, we're sort of having some questions coming in on pricing on commercial HVAC side, there seems to be more competition there with all the capacity coming in particularly sort of lower tier players. What does the pricing on commercial HVAC look like? Not resi, but how do you feel about commercial HVAC pricing? Thank you.

    謝謝。另外追問一下商用HVAC,我們這邊也收到一些關於商用HVAC端定價的問題;看起來那邊競爭更激烈,因為有很多產能進來,特別是一些較低階的業者。商用HVAC的定價狀況如何?不是住宅端,而是你們對商用HVAC定價的看法如何?謝謝。

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I feel good. I mean, globally. So certainly, here in the Americas and Europe, I think a lot of our customers are focused on the performance of the product, the quality of the product. The support that we give them are capacity and ability to deliver when they need the product. So I think the pricing has been fair and the pricing has been good.

    我感覺良好。我的意思是,就全球而言。當然,在美洲與歐洲,我認為很多客戶更關注產品的性能、產品的品質。以及我們提供的支援、產能與在客戶需要時交付產品的能力。所以我認為定價一直是合理的,而且定價表現也不錯。

  • Will there be certain parts of China or certain parts of Asia where there might be a bit more pricing pressure? Yes. But I would say, generally, globally, that pricing has not been the biggest factor in some of the wins that we're seeing.

    在中國的某些地區或亞洲的某些地區,是否可能會有更大的定價壓力?是的。但我會說,整體而言、就全球來看,定價並不是我們近期看到的一些勝出案(wins)中最主要的因素。

  • Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Patrick Goris - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • We've seen positive pricing in every segment in Q3, Andrew, and we expect the same in Q4. That includes commercial HVAC.

    Andrew,我們在第三季各個細分市場都看到正向的定價,並且預期第四季也會一樣,其中也包括商用HVAC。

  • Andrew Obin - Analyst

    Andrew Obin - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的Nicole DeBlase。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. Just a few tie-ups here. I think a lot of ground has been covered already. But the non-data center commercial HVAC order is up 20%, definitely interested in that. Dave, could you just talk about like what verticals are driving the strength there?

    好的,謝謝。各位早安。這邊有幾個補充問題。我想很多面向剛才已經談過了。不含資料中心的商用HVAC訂單成長20%,我們對此很感興趣。Dave,你能否談談是哪些垂直領域(verticals)在推動那邊的強勁表現?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. It's actually been pretty widespread. What we're seeing is very strong for things like the reshoring that we've seen in places like the United States. Industrial has been extremely strong. Hospitality has been good. I'd say the one -- the couple of areas that we watch are commercial real estate has continued to be a bit on the soft side. We actually saw orders pick up, but I don't think enough to make any kind of trends there.

    是的。其實這已經相當普遍了。我們看到的情況是,像我們在美國等地看到的回流生產(reshoring)這類趨勢非常強勁。工業領域一直非常強。旅宿業表現也不錯。我想我們關注的一個——幾個領域是,商用不動產仍然偏疲弱一些。我們確實看到訂單回升,但我不認為這足以在那裡形成任何趨勢。

  • We actually saw -- government has been a little bit weak and higher ed has been a little bit weak. But beyond that, when we look across health care, pharmaceuticals, industrial, semiconductor fab in Asia, we see some really good demand even for renewables and battery factories. So generally, we're seeing encouraging trends in those areas. We've actually -- especially in the Americas, been constraining ourselves. So we're excited to get this additional capacity on board because we've transformed the business, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, that we're really well positioned to win. We just need some additional capacity.

    我們也確實看到——政府端稍微偏弱,高等教育也稍微偏弱。但除此之外,當我們放眼醫療保健、製藥、工業、亞洲的半導體晶圓廠,我們看到相當不錯的需求,甚至在再生能源與電池工廠方面也是如此。所以整體而言,我們在這些領域看到令人鼓舞的趨勢。我們其實——尤其在美洲地區,一直在自我約束產能。因此,我們很期待把這些新增產能納入,因為如我在事先準備的講稿中提到的,我們已經完成了業務轉型,處於非常有利的位置來贏得訂單。我們只是需要一些額外產能。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Understood. Thanks, Dave. And then just on the data center bookings, obviously, really strong growth, and you guys have talked a lot about the chiller demand there. But what about what you're seeing for the liquid cooling offering, CDUs, ZutaCore, et cetera?

    了解。謝謝你,Dave。接著關於資料中心的接單(bookings),顯然成長非常強勁,而且你們也談了很多那邊對冷水機(chiller)的需求。但你們在液冷產品、CDU、ZutaCore 等方面看到的情況如何?

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Very, very good demand there as well. So we introduced our 1 megawatt. We have a 2.6 close to 3-megawatt unit that's coming out here in the next couple of months. And then we have a 5-megawatt unit that comes out towards the end of this year. We're already booking orders for even the 5-megawatt unit that even comes out later this year.

    是的,那邊的需求也非常、非常好。所以我們推出了 1 兆瓦的產品。接下來幾個月我們會推出一款 2.6 兆瓦、接近 3 兆瓦的機組。然後在今年年底前後,我們會推出 5 兆瓦的機組。即使是今年稍晚才會推出的 5 兆瓦機組,我們也已經開始接單了。

  • So -- and it's not just with colos. With some of the hyperscalers, they're looking -- they've been placing orders for the CDUs. We looked at some acquisitions in the space, and we said, effectively, a CDU is a mini chiller. We can -- we have phenomenal engineers, we can organically produce and design our own. So that's what we've done. We're very, very pleased with the demand we're seeing.

    所以——而且不只是與共置(colo)業者合作。在一些超大規模業者(hyperscalers)那邊,他們也在關注——他們一直在下單採購 CDU。我們也評估過這個領域的一些併購案,而我們的結論是,基本上 CDU 就是一台迷你冷水機。我們——我們有非常出色的工程師,可以透過內生成長自行生產並設計我們自己的產品。所以這就是我們所做的。我們對目前看到的需求感到非常、非常滿意。

  • And what's really exciting, Nicole, is when we push and we receive orders for our QuantumLeap offering, which integrates the traditional cooling, these liquid cooling CDUs and then our BMS that -- and then we apply digital twins to differentiate the entire system, that's where we see the puck going. That's where we see a lot of differentiation. And it's nice to see some orders for our full QuantumLeap offerings as well.

    而且真正令人興奮的是,Nicole,當我們推動並收到 QuantumLeap 方案的訂單時——它把傳統冷卻、這些液冷 CDU,還有我們的 BMS 整合在一起——然後我們再運用數位孿生來讓整個系統形成差異化,我們認為趨勢就會往那個方向走。我們認為那裡會有很大的差異化空間。同時也很高興看到我們完整的 QuantumLeap 方案也拿到了一些訂單。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Thank you. I'll pass it on.

    謝謝。我把時間交給下一位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We've reached the end of our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to David Gitlin for closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我把電話交回給 David Gitlin 作結語。

  • David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Gitlin - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thank you all for joining. What I would ask is folks, look at the last page of our prepared materials, which has our five key messages on there. We're very pleased with how we've restructured the portfolio, data center strong, growth is broad-based. We are addressing the cost headwinds. We're going in very clear eyed into next year.

    好的,感謝各位參與。我想請大家看看我們事先準備資料的最後一頁,上面列出了我們的五個關鍵訊息。我們對投資組合重整的成果感到非常滿意;資料中心表現強勁,成長是多面向、廣泛分布的。我們正在因應成本逆風。我們以非常清醒、務實的態度進入明年。

  • So we'll get out in front, both on the productivity and on the pricing side. And our free cash has been very, very strong. So I just want to close by thanking our 50,000 colleagues around the world who show up every day for our customers, and to support the results that we expect. So thank you all.

    因此,我們會在生產力提升與定價兩方面都提前布局。而且我們的自由現金流一直非常、非常強勁。最後我想感謝全球 50,000 位同仁,每天都為客戶而來,也支持我們所期待的成果。謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以掛線。