Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Credit Acceptance Corporation second-quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's call is being recorded. A webcast and transcript of today's earnings call will be made available on Credit Acceptance's website.

大家好，歡迎參加 Credit Acceptance Corporation 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。今天收益電話會議的網路直播和記錄將在 Credit Acceptance 的網站上發布。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Credit Acceptance's Chief Financial Officer, Jay Martin. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Credit Acceptance 的財務長 Jay Martin。請繼續。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Credit Acceptance Corporation second-quarter 2025 earnings call. As you read our news release posted on the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.creditacceptance.com and as you listen to this conference call, please recognize that both contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities law.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Credit Acceptance Corporation 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。當您閱讀我們在網站 ir.creditacceptance.com 的投資者關係部分發布的新聞稿以及收聽本次電話會議時，請注意兩者都包含聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, and which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These risks and uncertainties include those spelled out in the cautionary statement regarding forward-looking information included in the news release.

這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，其中許多是我們無法控制的，並且可能導致實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括新聞稿中關於前瞻性資訊的警示聲明中明確指出的風險和不確定性。

Consider all forward-looking statements in light of those and other risks and uncertainties. Additionally, I should mention that to comply with the SEC's Regulation G, please refer to the financial results section of our news release, which provides tables showing how non-GAAP measures reconcile to GAAP measures.

請根據這些以及其他風險和不確定性考慮所有前瞻性陳述。此外，我應該提到，為了遵守美國證券交易委員會的 G 條例，請參閱我們新聞稿中的財務結果部分，其中提供了顯示非 GAAP 指標如何與 GAAP 指標相協調的表格。

At this time, I will turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Ken Booth, to discuss our second-quarter results.

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的執行長 Ken Booth，討論我們的第二季業績。

Thanks, Jay. Our results for this quarter reflect the steady execution with declines in loan performance and year-over-year origination volumes balanced by continued portfolio growth. Loan performance declined this quarter with our 2022, 2023 and 2024 vintages underperforming our expectations and our 2025 vintage exceeding our expectations, while our other vintages were stable during the quarter.

謝謝，傑伊。本季的業績反映了穩定的執行力，貸款績效和年比發放量的下降與投資組合的持續成長相平衡。本季貸款表現下降，其中 2022、2023 和 2024 年份的貸款表現低於我們的預期，而 2025 年份的貸款表現超出我們的預期，而本季其他年份的貸款表現保持穩定。

Overall, forecasted net cash flows declined by 0.5% or $56 million. During the quarter, we experienced a decline in unit and dollar volumes, though our loan portfolio still reached a new record-high of $9.1 billion on an adjusted basis, up 6% from last Q2. Our market share in our core segment of used vehicles financed by subprime consumers was 5.4% for the first five months of the year, down from 6.6% for the same period in 2024.

總體而言，預測淨現金流下降 0.5% 或 5,600 萬美元。本季度，我們的單位貸款量和美元貸款量均有所下降，但我們的貸款組合經調整後仍創下 91 億美元的新高，較去年第二季度增長 6%。今年前五個月，我們在次級消費者融資二手車核心領域的市佔率為 5.4%，低於 2024 年同期的 6.6%。

Our unit volume was impacted by our Q3 2024 scorecard change that resulted in lower advance rates and likely impacted by increased competition. Beyond these two key drivers, we continued making progress during the quarter towards our mission of maximizing intrinsic value and positively changing the lives for our five key constituents, dealers, consumers, team members, investors and the communities we operate in.

我們的單位數量受到 2024 年第三季記分卡變化的影響，導致預付款率降低，並可能受到競爭加劇的影響。除了這兩個關鍵驅動因素之外，我們在本季度繼續朝著最大化內在價值和積極改變我們的五個關鍵要素（經銷商、消費者、團隊成員、投資者和我們經營所在的社區）的生活的使命取得進展。

We do this by providing a valuable product that enables dealers to sell vehicles to consumers regardless of their credit history. This allows dealers to make incremental sales and the 55% of adults with other than prime credit. For these adults, it enables them to obtain a vehicle to get to their jobs, take their kids to school, et cetera. It also gives them the opportunity to improve or build their credit.

我們透過提供有價值的產品來實現這一點，使經銷商能夠向消費者銷售汽車，而不管他們的信用記錄如何。這使得經銷商能夠增加銷售額，並使 55% 的成年人獲得非優質信用。對於這些成年人來說，它使他們能夠獲得一輛車去上班、送孩子上學等等。這也為他們提供了提高或建立信用的機會。

Our customers are people like Sugar from Oklahoma. Sugar's life took a dramatic turn when the former credit counselor was arrested for driving under the influence in 2014. Overwhelmed with shame of having lost her license, she realized she needed to make a profound change.

我們的客戶是像來自俄克拉荷馬州的 Sugar 這樣的人。2014 年，這位前信貸顧問因酒後駕車被捕，從此，Sugar 的生活發生了巨大的轉變。失去駕照讓她羞愧難當，她意識到自己需要做出深刻的改變。

She sought help from Women's Firstep, a treatment facility, and after graduating from the program eight months later, she began rebuilding her life. She regained her license, started a stable career and achieved a powerful symbol of victory when she was approved by us for a car loan. This journey of recovery came full circle when Sugar was hired to work for the treatment facility that had helped her, dedicated herself to her new mission of helping others find their own second chance.

她向治療機構 Women's Firstep 尋求幫助，八個月後完成治療後，她開始重建生活。當我們批准她的汽車貸款時，她重新獲得了駕照，開始了穩定的職業生涯，並獲得了強有力的勝利象徵。當 Sugar 被聘用到曾經幫助過她的治療機構工作時，她的康復之旅終於圓滿結束，她全身心地投入到幫助他人找到第二次機會的新使命中。

During the quarter, we financed over 85,000 contracts for our dealers and consumers. We collected $1.4 billion overall, and paid $63 million in dealer holdback and accelerated dealer holdback to our dealers. We enrolled 1,560 new dealers and had 10,655 active dealers during the quarter.

本季度，我們為經銷商和消費者提供了超過 85,000 份合約的融資。我們總共收取了 14 億美元，並向經銷商支付了 6,300 萬美元的經銷商保留金和加速經銷商保留金。本季度，我們招募了 1,560 名新經銷商，活躍經銷商總數達到 10,655 名。

We continue to invest in our engineering team, which is focused on modernizing both our key technology architecture and how our teams performed work. The engineering team has made significant strides in modernizing our loan origination system.

我們繼續投資我們的工程團隊，專注於使我們的關鍵技術架構和團隊的工作方式現代化。工程團隊在現代化我們的貸款發放系統方面取得了重大進展。

This modernization has laid a strong foundation for us to deploy innovative, frictionless dealer experiences, has increased the velocity of which we release features from a matter of months to a matter of days, allowing us to accelerate value to our business and customers.

這種現代化為我們部署創新、無摩擦的經銷商體驗奠定了堅實的基礎，將我們發布功能的速度從幾個月縮短到了幾天，使我們能夠加快為業務和客戶創造價值。

During the quarter, we received two awards for our amazing workplace, including being named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place To Work and Fortune magazine, with 93% of team members agreeing that Credit Acceptance is a great place to work. This year marked our 11th time in the last 12 years receiving this prestigious award, moving up five spots in the number 34 ranking.

在本季度，我們憑藉出色的工作場所獲得了兩項獎項，包括被《Great Place To Work》和《財富》雜誌評選為「100 家最適合工作的公司」之一，其中 93% 的團隊成員認為 Credit Acceptance 是一家非常適合工作的公司。今年是我們 12 年來第 11 次榮獲這項殊榮，排名上升了 5 位，排名第 34 位。

We support our team members in making a difference to what makes a difference to them, raising over $270,000 for St. Jude's Research Hospital and Make-A-Wish Foundation. Through these donations, we were able to fund wishes for 15 children, bringing our total to 95 wishes granted.

我們支持團隊成員為對他們有意義的事情做出貢獻，為聖猶達研究醫院和許願基金會籌集了超過 27 萬美元。透過這些捐款，我們能夠為 15 名兒童的願望提供資金，使我們實現的願望總數達到 95 個。

Now Jay Martin and I will take your questions, along with Doug Busk, our Chief Treasury Officer; and Jay Brinkley, our Senior Vice President and Treasurer.

現在，傑伊馬丁 (Jay Martin) 和我將與我們的財務長道格巴斯克 (Doug Busk) 以及我們的高級副總裁兼財務主管傑伊布林克利 (Jay Brinkley) 一起回答大家的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

（操作員指示） Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

I noticed that, obviously, the collections were down again this quarter, but the adjusted yield higher. I mean, that's happened, I think, at least once before. But maybe if you could just talk about what drives that. Usually, the adjusted yield will kind of follow that, the lower collections.

我注意到，本季的收款金額顯然再次下降，但調整後的殖利率卻上升。我的意思是，我認為這種事至少發生過一次。但也許您可以談談是什麼推動了這一現象。通常，調整後的收益率會遵循較低的收益。

Sure. So the decline in forecasted collections, the change in the amount and timing there, all things being equal, would drive the adjusted yield down. But the ultimate yield that we recognize is also dependent on the volume and pricing of new loan originations. So that's what you've seen in the last few quarters. The yields of the new loans that we've originated more than offset the decline in the yield due to loan performance.

當然。因此，預測收款量的下降、數量和時間的變化（在其他條件相同的情況下）將導致調整後的收益率下降。但我們確認的最終收益率也取決於新貸款發放的數量和定價。這就是您在過去幾個季度所看到的情況。我們發放的新貸款的收益率遠遠超過了貸款業績導致的收益率下降。

Right. Although interestingly, I mean, the collection shortfall is kind of greater than the last two quarters. So even though you said that the '25 vintage is outperforming, I mean, the underperformance in the back book has been greater than it's been in the past.

正確的。但有趣的是，我的意思是，收款缺口比前兩季大一些。因此，儘管您說 25 年份的表現優異，但我的意思是，後期表現不佳的情況比過去更為嚴重。

And I mean even if you kind of ex out the change that you made, it's still bigger than either the last two quarters. So I mean in the discussions we've had before, I guess there had been an idea that you were burning through those vintages and they should be, I guess, hurting you less, but that's not what happened. Is there any way to kind of talk about why that is?

我的意思是，即使你排除掉你所做的改變，它仍然比前兩個季度更大。所以我的意思是，在我們之前的討論中，我想人們會認為你正在浪費那些年份的酒，我想它們應該對你的傷害較小，但事實並非如此。有什麼方法可以解釋為什麼會這樣嗎？

Yeah. I would say that our forecasted models generally perform well during a relatively stable economic period, but are less accurate during periods of volatility, like we've experienced in recent years. We do think the continued impact of inflation is contributing to the loan underperformance we've seen there.

是的。我想說的是，我們的預測模型在經濟相對穩定時期通常表現良好，但在經濟波動時期，例如我們近年來經歷的波動時期，準確率就會降低。我們確實認為通貨膨脹的持續影響是導致貸款表現不佳的原因之一。

You may recall, second quarter last year, we put in an adjustment to address that underperformance. It's worked fairly well for most vintages, but for our 2024 loans, we have seen some more underperformance there than what that adjustment would have anticipated. And it's specifically related to the loans that we originated in '24 before our scorecard changed during the third quarter.

您可能還記得，去年第二季度，我們進行了調整以解決業績不佳的問題。對於大多數年份的貸款來說，這種方法效果都相當好，但對於我們 2024 年的貸款，我們發現其表現比調整預期的要差一些。它與我們在 2024 年第三季記分卡變更之前發放的貸款具體相關。

So that's the bulk of the decrease you saw for the quarter was on that segment of loans. The good news for the loans that we've originated, since we put that scorecard change in during the third quarter last year, those loans are performing as expected. We haven't seen any signs of underperformance on those loans.

因此，本季看到的下降大部分是來自這部分貸款。對於我們所發放的貸款來說，好消息是，自從我們在去年第三季實施記分卡變更以來，這些貸款的表現一直符合預期。我們沒有看到這些貸款有任何表現不佳的跡象。

Right. And then just a couple of other -- two other trends that caught my attention. I guess the first is that the loan size continues to decline over the last couple of quarters. Is there a different type of car that you're financing? Or is there something else that's going on there? And then a follow-up to that.

正確的。然後還有其他兩個趨勢引起了我的注意。我想首先是貸款規模在過去幾季持續下降。您要融資的汽車類型是否為其他類型？或者那裡還發生著其他什麼事情？然後進行後續跟進。

Yeah. I think we just had a different mix of consumer that's come in, in recent years, and that's contributing to the size of the consumer loans. So just a different mix of business.

是的。我認為近年來，我們的消費者結構發生了變化，這增加了消費貸款的規模。所以這只是一種不同的業務組合。

Different, meaning higher quality, lower quality? Because back in '23, I guess, you were talking about a higher quality kind of borrower. Is this a lower-quality borrower that you're seeing?

不同，意味著品質更高還是品質更低？因為我想，早在 23 年，您就談論的是更高品質的借款人。您看到的借款人品質較低嗎？

I don't think it's a lower-quality borrower. I think there's a slightly different mix of vehicles that are being financed. Again, there's been a fair amount of variability in the mix of vehicles since the start of the pandemic. So I think it's just normal volatility there.

我不認為這是一個品質較低的借款人。我認為獲得融資的車輛組合略有不同。再次，自疫情爆發以來，車輛組合發生了相當大的變化。所以我認為這只是正常的波動。

Right. And I guess the last thing for me is that you're assuming -- you've got a forecasted collection percentage that's over 65% for 2025 and it's actually higher than that for the second quarter. So it's been rising even as you've kind of had these nine quarters in a row of kind of having to pull your estimates back down. I mean does that -- I guess it's hard for me on the outside. Obviously, we don't see the detail in that, but it's hard to understand that, I guess, from the outside.

正確的。我想對我來說最後一件事是，你假設——你預測 2025 年的收集百分比將超過 65%，而第二季的收集百分比實際上高於這個數字。因此，即使連續九個季度不得不下調預期，但成長率仍然在上升。我的意思是——我想這對我而言從外表來說很難。顯然，我們看不到其中的細節，但我想，從外部來看很難理解這一點。

Yeah. When you look at the initial forecasted collection rate there, to your point, they're very similar. But again, to the point of having a different mix of businesses driving that. So over the last few years, we've lowered our initial expectations. So all things being equal, the loans were originated in '24 and '25.

是的。當您查看那裡最初預測的收集率時，就您的觀點而言，它們非常相似。但同樣，推動這項進程的業務組合也有所不同。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們降低了最初的預期。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，這些貸款起源於 1924 年和 1925 年。

Had we originated those back in '22, we would have had a higher expected collection rate on those. So different mix of business. But as we always have, we continue to adjust our expectations on the new loans to address that underperformance, and that's reflected in those initial estimates.

如果我們早在 1922 年就發起這些活動，我們的預期收集率就會更高。業務組合如此不同。但正如我們一貫的做法一樣，我們繼續調整對新貸款的預期，以解決表現不佳的問題，這反映在初步估計中。

John Rowan, Janney Montgomery.

約翰羅文、珍妮蒙哥馬利。

I guess I just want to understand the return profile, right? So your release says you've got an 8.5% return on capital, adjusted return on capital, but the cost of capital is 7.4%, which leaves like 110 basis point spread. As you look back at some of these vintages that you've written down, are some actually generating a negative economic return?

我想我只是想了解回報概況，對嗎？因此，您的新聞稿稱，您的資本回報率（調整後的資本回報率）為 8.5%，但資本成本為 7.4%，因此利差為 110 個基點。當您回顧您寫下的這些年份時，有些年份是否真的產生了負的經濟回報？

And where is that watermark? And I'm just trying to understand whether or not there is a point in time when you -- I don't know, I want to say get more realistic, but start putting loans on the books at a number that's more achievable and whether or not you're really generating economic profit on the loans that you're putting on today, assuming that there's going to be a reduction in forecasted collections.

水印在哪裡？我只是想知道是否存在一個時間點，在那個時間點你——我不知道，我想說變得更現實一些，但開始將貸款記入賬面，使其達到更容易實現的水平，以及你是否真的從今天所發放的貸款中獲得了經濟利潤，假設預測的收款額會減少。

I know it's a loaded question, but you spent a lot of money on share repurchases in the quarter. And I'm trying to assess whether or not you're diverting capital to repurchasing shares because, in reality, when you look back at these older vintages, if '24 and '25 trend that way, they're going to be generating negative economic profit.

我知道這是一個引導性的問題，但您在本季花了很多錢用於股票回購。我正在嘗試評估您是否將資本轉移到回購股票上，因為實際上，當您回顧這些較早的年份時，如果 24 年和 25 年的趨勢是那樣，那麼它們將產生負的經濟利潤。

Yeah. So our business model is designed to produce an acceptable return even if our loans underperform. And to your point, if you look at the '22 vintage, that vintage has underperformed the most of any year that we presented in that collection rate table.

是的。因此，我們的商業模式旨在即使我們的貸款表現不佳也能產生可接受的回報。正如您所說，如果您看一下 22 年份的葡萄酒，您會發現該年份的葡萄酒表現比我們在收集率表中列出的任何年份都要差。

And I'll say those loans in aggregate are still producing a return on capital in excess of our cost of capital, assuming that those collection expectations are accurate. So there would be, at some point, if they continue to decline, where that return would fall below our weighted average cost of capital. But based on our current estimates, those are still producing economic profit. They're still profitable loans.

我想說的是，假設這些收款預期是準確的，這些貸款整體上仍然產生的資本回報超過我們的資本成本。因此，如果它們繼續下降，那麼在某個時候，回報率就會低於我們的加權平均資本成本。但根據我們目前的估計，這些仍在產生經濟利潤。它們仍然是有利可圖的貸款。

Okay. And can you tell me how much money you spent on repurchases in the quarter and what the plans are for repurchases going forward? Because it seems like you spent quite a bit of money in the second quarter.

好的。您能否告訴我本季您在回購上花了多少錢以及未來的回購計劃是什麼？因為看起來你在第二季花了不少錢。

Yeah, this is Jay Brinkley. We were very active in the quarter. We bought back 530,000 shares at roughly an average price of $490. As always, we look at ensuring that we've got adequate capital to fund new originations and then look at the share price as well.

是的，這是傑伊·布林克利。本季我們非常活躍。我們以大約 490 美元的平均價格回購了 530,000 股。像往常一樣，我們會確保有足夠的資本來資助新項目，然後再考慮股價。

We haven't changed our view there. Volume is down, as Ken mentioned, due to our pricing change and our -- to some degree, the competitive environment. So year-over-year growth being slower. If you look back over a long period when originations are down, we tend to be pretty active, and that was certainly the case this quarter.

我們對此的看法並沒有改變。正如肯所提到的，銷售下降是由於我們的價格變化以及某種程度的競爭環境。因此同比增長速度較慢。如果回顧一下發起量下降的很長一段時間，我們往往非常活躍，本季的情況確實如此。

And what's remaining on any current authorization? And what are the plans going forward? That's it for me. Thank you.

目前授權還剩下什麼？未來有什麼計畫？對我來說就是這樣。謝謝。

Sure. Yeah. Under the latest authorization, we've got 391,000 shares left. I imagine based on that, we'll be reviewing that and going back to the Board for additional capacity should the buying opportunity arise.

當然。是的。根據最新授權，我們還剩下 391,000 股。我想基於此，我們將對此進行審查，並在出現購買機會時向董事會尋求額外的產能。

(Operator Instructions) Kyle Joseph, Stephens.

（操作員指示）凱爾·約瑟夫，史蒂芬斯。

Just wanted to talk about the competitive environment. I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that competition either heated up or remains intense.

只是想談競爭環境。我想您在準備好的發言中提到競爭要么已經升溫，要么仍然十分激烈。

Just given the macro outlook and expectations with tariffs for used car prices to continue to increase and the industry kind of reeling from the 2022 vintage, I mean, is your expectation that you'd see some -- a little bit of a pullback from traditional providers of credit? Or did you actually see them kind of get more aggressive kind of post Liberation Day? Just kind of want to get your sense for the pulse of the competitive environment.

考慮到宏觀前景、二手車關稅持續上漲的預期以及2022年車市的復甦，您是否預期傳統信貸機構會有所回落？還是說，在解放日之後，您認為他們確實變得更加積極了？只是想了解一下競爭環境的脈動。

The competitive environment is always hard to kind of forecast how it's going to be going forward. Obviously, like our volume per dealer went down, so it does seem like the environment is more competitive on the first half of this year.

競爭環境總是很難預測未來會如何發展。顯然，我們每個經銷商的銷售量下降了，所以今年上半年的競爭環境似乎更加激烈。

Tariffs and things that drive up costs for our consumers tend to be a negative for us, both whether it's related to the vehicles or just other things that they spend money on. But it's really too early to tell what the impact will be on our business.

關稅和其他增加消費者成本的因素往往對我們不利，無論是與車輛有關還是與消費者花錢購買的其他東西有關。但現在判斷這會對我們的業務產生什麼影響還為時過早。

I do think from a volume standpoint, we had a pretty tough comparable. Last year was our highest volume year ever, so when we compare it year over year, it's a tough comparable. We made our scorecard change last year in the middle of the third quarter. Once we kind of get past that, we'll have an easier comparable. So I think that those will be some things that might get positive going forward.

我確實認為從數量的角度來看，我們的可比性相當強。去年是我們有史以來銷量最高的一年，因此，當我們進行逐年比較時，很難進行比較。我們去年在第三季中期改變了記分卡。一旦我們解決了這個問題，我們就會有一個更容易的比較。所以我認為這些事情在未來可能會變得積極。

No, that's good color. A good reminder on the tough comps. Thanks for taking my questions.

不，那是好顏色。這對艱難的比賽來說是一個很好的提醒。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you. With no further questions in the queue, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Martin for any additional or closing remarks. Go ahead, please.

謝謝。由於沒有其他問題，我想將會議交還給馬丁先生，請他發表補充意見或結語。請繼續。

We'd like to thank everyone for their support and for joining us on the conference call today. If you have any additional follow-up questions, please direct them to our Investor Relations mailbox at ir@creditacceptance.com. We look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Thank you.

我們要感謝大家的支持以及今天參加電話會議。如果您還有其他疑問，請發送電子郵件至我們的投資者關係郵箱：ir@creditacceptance.com。我們期待下個季度再次與您聯繫。謝謝。

Once again, this does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect.

今天的會議再次結束了。我們感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線。