Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone and welcome to the Credit Acceptance Corporation Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. A webcast and transcript of today's earnings call will be made available on Credit Acceptance's website.

大家好，歡迎參加 Credit Acceptance Corporation 2024 第三季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。今天的財報電話會議的網路廣播和文字記錄將在 Credit Acceptance 的網站上發布。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Credit Acceptance’s Chief Financial Officer, Jay Martin.

此時，我想將電話轉給 Credit Acceptance 的財務長 Jay Martin。

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to the Credit Acceptance Corporation Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. As you read our news release posted on the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.creditacceptance.com, and as you listen to this conference call, please recognize that both contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Federal Securities Law. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Credit Acceptance Corporation 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。當您閱讀我們網站 ir.creditacceptance.com 投資者關係部分發布的新聞稿以及收聽本次電話會議時，請注意，兩者均包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，其中許多風險和不確定性超出了我們的控制範圍，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties include those spelled out in the Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information included in the news release. Consider all forward-looking statements in light of those and other risks and uncertainties.

這些風險和不確定性包括新聞稿中有關前瞻性資訊的警告聲明中闡述的風險和不確定性。根據這些以及其他風險和不確定性考慮所有前瞻性陳述。

Additionally, I should mention that to comply with the SEC’s Regulation G, please refer to the Financial Results section of our news release, which provides tables showing how non-GAAP measures reconcile to GAAP measures.

此外，我應該提到，為了遵守 SEC 的 G 條例，請參閱我們新聞稿的財務結果部分，其中提供了顯示非 GAAP 衡量標準與 GAAP 衡量標準如何協調一致的表格。

At this time, I will turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Ken Booth, to discuss our third quarter results.

此時，我將把電話轉給我們的執行長 Ken Booth，討論我們的第三季業績。

Thanks, Jay. Overall, we had another mixed quarter as it relates to collections and originations, two key drivers of our business. Our 2022 vintage continued to underperform our expectations, and 2021, 2023, and 2024 also declined. Overall, a modest decline of 0.6% or $62.8 million in forecasted net cash flows. As we have previously communicated, historically, our models are very good at predicting loan performance in aggregate, but our models work best during less volatile times. The pandemic and its ripple effects created volatile conditions. Federal stimulus, enhanced unemployment benefits, and supply chain disruptions led to vehicle shortages, inflation, et cetera - all of which impacted competitive conditions. We've had larger-than-average forecast misses, both high and low, during this volatile period. But, because we understand forecasting collection rates is challenging, our business model is designed to produce acceptable returns in the aggregate, even if loan performance is less-than-forecasted. Despite the decline in forecasted collections this quarter, we believe we will continue to produce substantial Economic Profit per share in the future. Even our worst vintage, 2022, is still forecasted to produce Economic Profit. As I've explained in the past, we are less reactive to changes in competitive and economic cycles than others in the industry because we take a long view on the industry, price to maximize Economic Profit over the long-term, and seek to best position the Company if access to capital becomes limited.

謝謝，傑伊。總體而言，我們又經歷了一個好壞參半的季度，因為它與產品系列和原創產品有關，這是我們業務的兩個關鍵驅動因素。2022 年年份的表現持續低於我們的預期，2021 年、2023 年和 2024 年的表現也有所下降。總體而言，預測淨現金流量小幅下降 0.6%，即 6,280 萬美元。正如我們之前所傳達的，從歷史上看，我們的模型非常擅長預測整體貸款績效，但我們的模型在波動較小的時期效果最好。大流行及其連鎖反應造成了不穩定的局勢。聯邦刺激措施、失業救濟金增加和供應鏈中斷導致車輛短缺、通貨膨脹等——所有這些都影響了競爭條件。在這個動盪的時期，我們的預測失誤率無論高或低都高於平均。但是，由於我們知道預測收款率具有挑戰性，因此我們的業務模式旨在產生可接受的整體回報，即使貸款績效低於預期。儘管本季的預測收款有所下降，但我們相信未來我們將繼續產生可觀的每股經濟利潤。即使是我們最糟糕的年份 2022 年，預計仍將產生經濟利潤。正如我過去所解釋的，與業內其他公司相比，我們對競爭和經濟週期變化的反應較少，因為我們對行業有長遠的眼光，價格是為了長期經濟利潤最大化，並尋求最好的如果獲得資本的機會受到限制，公司將處於不利地位。

Ultimately, we're happy we had the discipline to maintain underwriting standards during the easy money times of 2021 and especially 2022. While our market share was lower during those years, we believe this put us in a better position to take advantage of more favorable market conditions today.

最終，我們很高興在 2021 年，尤其是 2022 年的寬鬆資金時期，我們有紀律來維持承保標準。雖然那些年我們的市佔率較低，但我們相信這使我們能夠更好地利用當今更有利的市場條件。

During the quarter, we experienced strong growth and had our highest Q3 unit and dollar volume ever, growing our loan unit and dollar volume by 17.7% and 12.2%, respectively. This is our ninth quarter in a row with double-digit unit volume growth.

在本季度，我們經歷了強勁的成長，並實現了有史以來最高的第三季度單位和美元數量，我們的貸款單位和美元數量分別增長了 17.7% 和 12.2%。這是我們連續第九個季度實現兩位數銷售成長。

Our loan portfolio is now at a new record high of $8.9 billion on an Adjusted basis, up 18.6% from Q3 2023. Our market share in our core segment was 6.2% as of August 31, 2024. Our growth did slow during the quarter, likely impacted by our Q2 forecast changes that resulted in lower advance rates during Q3.

經過調整後，我們的貸款組合目前創下 89 億美元的新紀錄，較 2023 年第三季成長 18.6%。截至 2024 年 8 月 31 日，我們在核心細分市場的市佔率為 6.2%。我們的成長在本季確實放緩，可能是受到我們第二季預測變化的影響，導致第三季預付款率下降。

Beyond these two key drivers, we continue making progress during the quarter towards our mission of creating intrinsic value and positively changing the lives of our five key constituents: dealers, consumers, team members, investors, and the communities we operate in.

除了這兩個關鍵驅動因素之外，我們在本季度繼續朝著創造內在價值和積極改變我們五個關鍵組成部分（經銷商、消費者、團隊成員、投資者和我們經營所在社區）的生活的使命取得進展。

We do this by providing a valuable product that enables dealers to sell to consumers regardless of their credit history. This allows dealers to make incremental sales for roughly 55% of adults with other than prime credit.

我們透過提供有價值的產品來做到這一點，使經銷商能夠向消費者銷售產品，無論他們的信用記錄如何。這使得經銷商能夠透過非優質信貸為約 55% 的成年人增加銷售。

For these adults, it enables them to obtain a vehicle to get to their jobs, take their kids to school, et cetera. It also gives them the opportunity to improve or build their credit.

對於這些成年人來說，它使他們能夠獲得車輛去上班、送孩子上學等等。它還為他們提供了提高或建立信用的機會。

We recognize that it's been a challenging time for our consumers impacted by recent hurricanes. As we have for many years, we are working with these consumers including suspending some of our collection efforts, to allow these customers to prioritize their safety and most urgent needs.

我們認識到，對於受到最近颶風影響的消費者來說，這是一個充滿挑戰的時期。正如我們多年來所做的那樣，我們正在與這些消費者合作，包括暫停一些收集工作，以便這些客戶能夠優先考慮他們的安全和最迫切的需求。

During the quarter, we financed 95,670 contracts for our dealers and consumers. We collected $1.3 billion overall and paid $71 million in portfolio profit and portfolio profit express to our dealers. We added 1,038 new dealers for the quarter and now have our largest number of active dealers ever for a third quarter, with 10,678 dealers.

本季度，我們為經銷商和消費者簽訂了 95,670 份合約提供了融資。我們總共籌集了 13 億美元，並向我們的經銷商支付了 7,100 萬美元的投資組合利潤和投資組合利潤。本季我們新增了 1,038 名經銷商，目前活躍經銷商數量為第三季以來最高，達到 10,678 名。

From an initiative perspective, we are committed to improvement through our go to market approach aimed at providing product innovation and support to our dealers faster and more effectively than ever before. This requires teamwork, attention to detail, and an iterative process that attempts to make improvement every step of the way. This is a work in progress, but we are getting better.

從主動的角度來看，我們致力於透過進入市場的方法進行改進，旨在比以往更快、更有效地為我們的經銷商提供產品創新和支援。這需要團隊合作、對細節的關注以及嘗試在每一步中進行改進的迭代過程。這是一項正在進行的工作，但我們正在變得更好。

We also continue investing in our technology team. We've improved our team's capabilities and are focused on modernizing both our key technology architecture and how our teams perform work with the goal of increasing the speed at which we enhance our product for dealers and consumers.

我們也繼續投資我們的技術團隊。我們提高了團隊的能力，並專注於實現關鍵技術架構和團隊工作方式的現代化，以提高我們為經銷商和消費者增強產品的速度。

During the quarter, we received four awards from Fortune, USA today and People Magazine recognizing us as a great place to work. We continue to focus on making our amazing workplace even better. We support our team members in making a difference to what makes a difference to them. In connection with their efforts, we contributed to organizations such as 42 Strong, American Foundation for Suicide Prevention, Atlanta Area School District, Children's Hospital of Michigan, and Pure Heart Foundation.

本季度，我們獲得了《財富》、《今日美國》和《人物》雜誌頒發的四項獎項，表彰我們是一個理想的工作場所。我們繼續致力於讓我們令人驚嘆的工作場所變得更好。我們支持我們的團隊成員做出改變，為他們帶來改變。在他們的努力下，我們為 42 Strong、美國預防自殺基金會、亞特蘭大地區學區、密西根兒童醫院和純潔之心基金會等組織做出了貢獻。

Now, Jay Martin and I will take your questions along with Douglas Busk, our Chief Treasury Officer; Jay Brinkley, our Senior Vice President and Treasurer; and Jeff Soutar, our Vice President and Assistant Treasurer.

現在，傑伊·馬丁和我將與我們的財務長道格拉斯·巴斯克一起回答你們的問題； Jay Brinkley，我們的資深副總裁兼財務長；以及我們的副總裁兼助理財務主管 Jeff Soutar。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Moshe Orenbuch。

Great, thanks. I appreciate the comment that you're confident that the returns are higher than your hurdle rates, but could you just spend a little more time on that idea? Because they're all based upon estimates and the estimates have been revised down for six quarters. So I guess the real question is how do you know and what is it -- are we going to be having the same conversation 90 days from now? How should we think about that?

太好了，謝謝。我很欣賞您對回報率高於最低門檻的評論，但您能否在這個想法上多花一點時間？因為它們都是基於估計，並且估計已經下調了六個季度。所以我想真正的問題是你怎麼知道以及它是什麼——從現在起 90 天後我們是否還會進行同樣的對話？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Our estimates in our third quarter release represent our best estimates of how we believe these loans are going to perform in the future. That considers the underperformance we've seen to date on post-pandemic vintages. To your point about what do we expect to see in the future, I would say our forecasting models perform best during relatively stable economic periods, but as Ken said, are less accurate during periods of volatility like we've experienced since the pandemic.

我們在第三季發布的估計代表了我們對這些貸款未來表現的最佳估計。這考慮到了迄今為止我們所看到的大流行後年份的表現不佳。對於您關於我們預計未來會發生什麼的觀點，我想說的是，我們的預測模型在相對穩定的經濟時期表現最好，但正如肯所說，在波動時期（就像我們自大流行以來所經歷的那樣）不太準確。

The biggest declines we saw in the quarter related to the '21 to '22 cohorts. Tough to say precisely why these have continued to underperform, but we know there are likely multiple contributing factors, including that these loans were originated during a very competitive period, which generally hurts loan performance. Consumers purchased vehicles at peak valuations, vehicle prices subsequently declined, and then the impact of inflation. We understand that others in our industry have experienced similar or worse performance on these cohorts, so we don't believe this trend is unique to Credit Acceptance. As it relates to the '21 to '22 business we point out that this business is more seasoned. We've collected 81% of what we ultimately expect to collect on the '21 business, and 61% of what we ultimately expect to collect on the '22 business. Going forward, those cohorts are going to have less of an impact on our financial results.

我們在本季看到的最大降幅與「21 至 22」群體有關。很難確切地說出為什麼這些貸款繼續表現不佳，但我們知道可能有多種影響因素，包括這些貸款是在競爭非常激烈的時期發放的，這通常會損害貸款績效。消費者在估值高峰時購買車輛，隨後車輛價格下降，然後受到通貨膨脹的影響。我們知道，我們行業中的其他人在這些群體中也經歷過類似或更差的表現，因此我們不認為這種趨勢是信用接受所獨有的。由於它與“21 至 22”業務相關，我們指出該業務更為成熟。我們已經收集了我們最終期望在 '21 業務中收集的數據的 81%，以及我們最終期望在 '22 業務中收集的數據的 61%。展望未來，這些族群對我們財務表現的影響將會較小。

What it’s going to have more of an impact on is our financials based on how our '23 and '24 loans perform because we wrote more business in those years and those loans are also less seasoned. Then, as we get into next year, it would be more weighted to what we write in '25.

它將對我們的財務狀況產生更大的影響，這取決於我們 23 年和 24 年貸款的表現，因為我們在那些年裡寫了更多的業務，而這些貸款的經驗也不夠豐富。然後，當我們進入明年時，它將更加重視我們在 25 年所寫的內容。

Right. I guess, I would just maybe tack on to that the idea that it isn't so much about volatility. It's about different factors affecting what has driven consumer behavior in this cycle versus previous cycles. And I guess it just pushes me to this question - Is it an estimation problem or is it an actual underwriting problem? Have you thought about changing the way you actually underwrite these loans?

正確的。我想，我可能會堅持這一觀點，即這與波動性無關。這是關於影響本週期與先前週期中消費者行為的不同因素。我想這只是讓我想到這個問題——這是一個估計問題還是一個實際的承保問題？您是否考慮過改變實際承保這些貸款的方式？

Let's say in our forecast, we continue to consider recent performance. So, as we're originating new loans, we've considered the underperformance that we've seen in these '21 and '22 loans. We've adjusted and lowered our initial estimates on those future loans to consider that so we believe we are considering the underperformance there. As I mentioned before, we don't believe this is a problem unique to Credit Acceptance; we believe we're seeing this across the industry. We’ll assess that quarterly moving forward.

假設在我們的預測中，我們繼續考慮最近的表現。因此，當我們發放新貸款時，我們考慮了 '21 和 '22 貸款中表現不佳的情況。我們已經調整併降低了對這些未來貸款的初步估計，以考慮到這一點，因此我們相信我們正在考慮那裡的表現不佳。正如我之前提到的，我們不認為這是信用承兌所特有的問題；我們相信我們在整個行業中都看到了這種情況。我們將評估該季度的進展。

And then just last one for me. You didn't buy back any stock in the third quarter or in October to date from the filing of the Q, it looks like. So can you just talk a little bit about capital? It looks like loan growth is strong but decelerated a little. Can you just talk about that?

然後是我的最後一個。看起來，自從提交 Q 以來，您在第三季或 10 月沒有回購任何股票。那麼您能簡單談談資本嗎？看起來貸款成長強勁，但略有放緩。能簡單談談嗎？

Sure. As we've said many times over the years, our first priority is to make sure we have the capital that we need to fund the business. If we feel we have excess capital, then we'll take a look at the stock price. If we think we can buy it for less than intrinsic value, we'll return capital to shareholders. For most of Q3, we had higher outstanding balances on our revolving credit facilities than we customarily do.

當然。正如我們多年來多次說過的那樣，我們的首要任務是確保我們擁有為業務提供資金所需的資本。如果我們覺得我們有多餘的資金，那麼我們就會來看看股價。如果我們認為可以以低於內在價值的價格購買它，我們將向股東返還資本。在第三季的大部分時間裡，我們的循環信貸額度的未償餘額比平常高。

Now, that situation was remedied at the very end of September when we did a relatively large ABS deal. So given the fact that we had more revolver usage and the leverage at the end of Q3 is at the high end of the historical range, and given uncertainties about collection performance and capital market conditions in light of the election, we took a bit more of a conservative approach. As you know, we’ve repurchased a significant number of shares over a long period of time - Over 30 million shares - since the late 90s, but we don't do it consistently. Some periods we buy back a lot, and some periods we buy back very little so I don't think that you can take a look at one quarter and assume that's the basis for a new trend line.

現在，這種情況在 9 月底得到了糾正，當時我們進行了一筆相對較大的 ABS 交易。因此，考慮到我們的左輪手槍使用量有所增加，並且第三季末的槓桿率處於歷史範圍的高端，並且考慮到選舉結果對收款表現和資本市場狀況的不確定性，我們採取了更多的措施保守的做法。如您所知，自 20 世紀 90 年代末以來，我們在很長一段時間內回購了大量股票（超過 3000 萬股），但我們並沒有始終如一地這樣做。有些時期我們回購很多，有些時期我們回購很少，所以我認為你不能看一個季度並假設這是新趨勢線的基礎。

Got it. Thanks so much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from the line of John Hecht with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·赫克特和傑弗里斯的對話。

Good morning. Thanks.

早安.謝謝。

John, you may have muted your line.

約翰，您可能已將線路靜音。

We have a question from the line of John Rowan with Janney Montgomery Scott.

我們有一個來自約翰·羅文和詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特的問題。

Good morning. I guess I just wanted to drill down a little bit into what lower consumer prepayments means. We've asked on the call before if that related to lower repossession or lower wholesale after repossession. But I guess drill down a little bit like what is it? Are you not getting the judgments you need when you go and you sue someone for a deficiency? Is it just consumers not paying on older debts that are in the tails, or has there been just a wholesale change in the number of consumers who are defaulting on loans? So, I'm just trying to get a better understanding of what that fairly generic term means.

早安.我想我只是想深入了解較低的消費者預付款意味著什麼。我們之前在電話中詢問過這是否與較低的收回量或收回後較低的批發量有關。但我想再深入一點，這是什麼？當你因缺陷而起訴某人時，你是否沒有得到所需的判斷？只是消費者沒有償還尾部的舊債務，還是只是拖欠貸款的消費者數量發生了大規模變化？所以，我只是想更好地理解這個相當通用的術語的含義。

It's primarily referring to consumers refinancing their loans and moving on to either traditional forms of financing or purchasing a new car. In periods where there's limited availability of credit to consumers, we tend to see lower levels of prepayments and that's what we're currently seeing now.

它主要指消費者對貸款進行再融資，然後轉向傳統的融資形式或購買新車。在消費者獲得信貸有限的時期，我們往往會看到預付款水準較低，這就是我們目前所看到的情況。

Okay, but that's driving a lot of forecast revisions. I mean, look, I've covered the company for a long time. There have been periods in which there's been absolutely no credit availability, right? And to consumers, even much worse than right now. How does that compare historically to those periods?

好的，但這導致了許多預測的修改。我的意思是，看，我已經報道這家公司很久了。曾經有一段時間完全沒有信貸可用，對嗎？對消費者來說，情況甚至比現在還要糟糕。與歷史上那些時期相比如何？

I would say we're near historical lows there currently. So, we have seen similar low periods, but this is one of the lower periods that we've seen. Our forecast uses more of a historical average of what we've seen with prepayments, and we've seen that come down, which pushes our cash flows out into the future, which lowers the yield that we'll realize on the loans.

我想說，目前我們已接近歷史低點。因此，我們也看到過類似的低谷期，但這是我們見過的低谷期之一。我們的預測更多地使用了我們所看到的預付款的歷史平均值，並且我們已經看到預付款的下降，這將我們的現金流推向未來，從而降低了我們將實現的貸款收益率。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

I would just add that forecasting the timing of cash flows is challenging since it's dependent on the competitive environment and no one can really forecast how a competitive environment is going to behave in the future. So, it is challenging. I think we take our best crack at it, but it's tough.

我想補充一點，預測現金流的時間是具有挑戰性的，因為它取決於競爭環境，而且沒有人能真正預測未來競爭環境將如何表現。所以，這是具有挑戰性的。我認為我們會盡最大努力，但這很困難。

But actually, let me ask you another question. So, if people aren't refinancing their cars, why is that? Is that a function of used car prices that they're sitting on a negative equity position, and they don't want to refinance the car and owe some money? Or what is driving that lower level of refinancing activity?

但實際上，讓我問你另一個問題。那麼，如果人們不為他們的汽車進行再融資，為什麼呢？這是二手車價格的功能，他們坐擁負資產，他們不想為汽車再融資並欠一些錢嗎？或是是什麼導致再融資活動水準較低？

Yeah, I think that certainly could be a factor. I think just the general availability of credit to the consumer is also a factor, but I think the factors you mentioned are contributing factors.

是的，我認為這肯定是一個因素。我認為消費者普遍獲得信貸也是一個因素，但我認為你提到的因素是促成因素。

Alright. Thank you.

好吧。謝謝。

Our next question comes from John Hecht with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的約翰·赫克特。

Apologize for the technical issue earlier. I just have follow up questions for both of the preceding questions. I know this cycle is unique, but in historical cycles where your capital was scarce and maybe there was disruption in the environment, those tended to be favorable environments for you. As an example, thinking about post the great financial crisis. This one continues to be challenged.

之前對技術問題表示歉意。我只是對前面的兩個問題有後續問題。我知道這個週期是獨特的，但在歷史週期中，你的資本稀缺，也許環境受到破壞，這些對你來說往往是有利的環境。舉個例子，思考一下金融危機後的情況。這一問題仍在繼續受到挑戰。

I guess the question is, what do you guys think has to happen to clear the market out to the point where it isn’t an opportunistic environment for you? Is it simply just work through the '22 vintage? Do residual prices need to come down further? Or what other factors might we look out for?

我想問題是，你們認為必須發生什麼事才能清理市場，使之不再是你們的機會主義環境？它只是簡單地通過'22年份工作嗎？剩餘價格是否需要進一步下降？或者我們還可以關注哪些其他因素？

I think it's primarily continuing to adjust our loan forecast when we're originating new loans to consider the performance we've seen. And that's what we've continued to do. I mentioned earlier the '22 loans have a less significant impact on our financial statements going forward. Our results should be more based on how our '23 and '24 business performs and, going into next year, how our '25 business performs. As Ken mentioned, we know that forecasting collection rates is difficult so we have a business model designed to produce acceptable returns in aggregate, even if loan performance is worse than forecasted. So, we'll continue to take that approach as we move forward.

我認為，當我們發放新貸款時，主要是繼續調整我們的貸款預測，以考慮我們所看到的表現。這就是我們一直在做的事情。我之前提到 22 年貸款對我們未來的財務報表影響較小。我們的業績應該更多地基於我們「23」和「24」業務的表現，以及進入明年的「25」業務的表現。正如肯所提到的，我們知道預測收款率很困難，因此我們有一個商業模式，旨在產生可接受的整體回報，即使貸款表現比預測差。因此，我們將在前進過程中繼續採取這種方法。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Wildhack with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Robert Wildhack。

Question on the '23 and '24 vintages specifically. In the second quarter earnings call, I think you mentioned that you expected '23 and '24 to behave similarly to '22. As it stands today though, forecasted collections are 4 percentage points and 6 percentage points higher for '23 and ‘24, respectively, versus '22. How should we square that difference? Do you think there's another shoe to drop with respect to '23 and '24? And if so, when do you think that could happen?

特別是關於 '23 和 '24 年份的問題。在第二季的財報電話會議中，我認為您提到您預計「23」和「24」的表現與「22」類似。但就目前情況而言，與 22 年相比，23 年和 24 年的預測收集量分別高出 4 個百分點和 6 個百分點。我們應該如何計算這個差異？您認為 '23 和 '24 是否還有另一雙鞋值得放棄？如果是這樣，您認為什麼時候會發生？

Yeah, I think it's difficult to look at just the absolute collection rate because we've originated different mixes of business during those years. I think what you need to look at is our variance to our initial forecast, and you'll see that's currently lower on the '23 and '24 loans. Part of that is due to us having lowered our initial estimates on the '23 and '24 loans when we have originated them because we had started to see some underperformance on the '21 to '22 loans, so we considered that. And then we're also looking at the trends of what '23 has done so far versus '22, and we know those loans are performing better. Based on those two factors, we believe that the '23 business and the '24 business will perform better than the '22 business, but I would also point out, especially the '24 business, is not very seasoned at this point.

是的，我認為很難只看絕對收款率，因為這些年來我們開創了不同的業務組合。我認為您需要關注的是我們與最初預測的差異，您會發現目前 '23 和 '24 貸款的差異較低。部分原因是我們在發放「23」和「24」貸款時降低了對「23」和「24」貸款的初步估計，因為我們開始看到「21」至「22」貸款表現不佳，所以我們考慮了這一點。然後我們還研究了「23」迄今為止與「22」相比的趨勢，我們知道這些貸款的表現更好。基於這兩個因素，我們認為'23業務和'24業務將比'22業務表現更好，但我也想指出，特別是'24業務，目前還不是很成熟。

Yeah, and I would just add that we said in prior calls that we were observing a similar trend in underperformance on the '23 and '24 loans, though that trend was less severe than the '22 loans. So, we're seeing a similar pattern but less severe. And then to Jay's point, we’ve adjusted our forecast. Our forecast on '23 and '24 was more conservative than '21 and '22.

是的，我想補充一點，我們在之前的電話會議中說過，我們觀察到「23」和「24」貸款表現不佳的類似趨勢，儘管這種趨勢不如「22」貸款嚴重。因此，我們看到了類似的模式，但不那麼嚴重。然後就傑伊的觀點而言，我們調整了我們的預測。我們對 '23 和 '24 的預測比 '21 和 '22 更保守。

How do the recent hurricanes impact forecasted collections, if at all?

最近的颶風如何影響預測的收集（如果有的話）？

The hurricanes impacted mainly Florida and North Carolina, Those two states are about 4.2% and 1.5% of our portfolio, but obviously, the hurricanes didn't impact the entire states. Overall, they're really not having that material of an impact to our portfolio. That said, they've been incredibly impactful for the people in the direct path so, consistent with our approach for many years, = we're working to get those impacted by the hurricanes in ways to help them get back on their feet.

颶風主要影響了佛羅裡達州和北卡羅來納州，這兩個州分別占我們投資組合的 4.2% 和 1.5%，但顯然，颶風並沒有影響整個州。總的來說，他們確實沒有對我們的投資組合產生重大影響。也就是說，它們對直接路徑上的人們產生了難以置信的影響，因此，與我們多年來的做法一致，我們正在努力幫助那些受颶風影響的人重新站起來。

Okay. If I could just sneak one more in and ask Ken about something you highlighted earlier, specifically that the '22 vintage would still generate Economic Profit. I was wondering if you could give some more context there, like how much more Economic Profit does a good vintage like, say 2019, generate versus 2022?

好的。如果我能再偷偷地問一下肯，問一下您之前強調的一件事，特別是 22 年份的葡萄酒仍會產生經濟利潤。我想知道您是否可以提供更多背景信息，例如像 2019 年這樣的好年份與 2022 年相比，能產生多少經濟利潤？

We've got a wide variance in Economic Profit. Obviously, 2019 was buoyed by stimulus payments, and it over collected. I don't really want to get into the details of our kind of profitability by vintage. I guess what I would say is 2019 was a highly profitable vintage and 2022 is a lesser profitable one, but they all produce Economic Profit, which means they're all profitable vintages.

我們的經濟利潤差異很大。顯然，2019 年受到了刺激資金的提振，而且超支了。我真的不想詳細介紹我們按年份劃分的獲利能力。我想我想說的是，2019 年是一個高利潤年份，而 2022 年是一個利潤較低的年份，但它們都產生了經濟利潤，這意味著它們都是獲利年份。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Shelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Ryan Shelley 與美國銀行的電話線。

Quick question here. So, the active dealer count has come down a few quarters now. Can you just touch on what's driving that? Is that like a function of the softer market? Or being more selective? Just any color there would be great.

在這裡快速提問。因此，活躍經銷商數量已經下降了幾個季度。您能簡單談談是什麼推動了這個趨勢嗎？這是否是市場疲軟的結果？還是更有選擇性？任何顏色都會很棒。

I think active dealer counts were fairly flat to be honest. It was higher in the first quarter due to seasonality. I would say, in terms of the competitive environment, for a while it seemed like a lot of people were pulling back.

老實說，我認為活躍經銷商數量相當穩定。由於季節性原因，第一季較高。我想說，就競爭環境而言，有一段時間似乎很多人都在退縮。

It seems like that subsided somewhat and maybe the competitive environment is returning more to a normal environment. However, that being said, we've still been able to grow our market share and are on pace for our highest volume year ever. I feel good about where we're at in terms of the competitive environment and how we're able to grow the business.

看起來這種情況有所緩解，也許競爭環境正在回歸正常環境。然而，話雖這麼說，我們仍然能夠增加我們的市場份額，並有望實現有史以來最高的銷量。我對我們在競爭環境以及我們如何發展業務方面所處的位置感到滿意。

Got it. And then just one more quickly if I could. So, you have a bond maturity in March 2026, but it's callable at par now. How should investors think about your thought process around addressing that? Thanks.

知道了。如果可以的話，然後再快一點。因此，您的債券將於 2026 年 3 月到期，但現在可以按面值贖回。投資人該如何思考您解決這個問題的思考過程？謝謝。

Right. Yeah, we're watching market conditions there very closely. Two good facts with that bond tranche. First, we have plenty of time. It doesn't mature until March of 2026, so we have a year and a half to do something. The other good fact there is it’s relatively small at $400 million, so it's small relative to the size of our balance sheet and our liquidity. So, we have plenty of options. We can refinance it in the senior note market, we can refinance it using a securitization, or we can just draw on our existing liquidity. Rates for a new bond issue would probably be higher than the coupon that's on those notes today. So, we're not in a rush to do anything with it. We'll continue to monitor it and do something appropriate before the maturity.

正確的。是的，我們正在非常密切地關注那裡的市場狀況。該債券有兩個好事實。首先，我們有充足的時間。它要到2026年3月才會成熟，所以我們有一年半的時間來做一些事情。另一個好事實是，它的規模相對較小，只有 4 億美元，因此相對於我們的資產負債表和流動性的規模而言，這個數字很小。所以，我們有很多選擇。我們可以在優先票據市場為其再融資，我們可以透過證券化為其再融資，或者我們可以利用現有的流動性。新債券發行的利率可能會高於目前這些票據的票面利率。因此，我們並不急於對此採取任何行動。我們將繼續監控，並在成熟之前採取適當的措施。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of John Rowan with Janney Montgomery Scott.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·羅文和詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特。

Just one follow up. The 2022 vintage is now sitting at a 13.2% spread versus an initial of 20.1%. Obviously, it's a relatively big decline, but how do we think about where the level of Economic Profit doesn't become justifiable, right? I mean, 13.2% spread if that's a proxy for the internal rate of return to that pool. I mean or do we just look at that number to go down to your funding costs, or where does that number become uneconomical to you?

只需一個跟進。2022 年年份酒的價差目前為 13.2%，而初始價差為 20.1%。顯然，這是一個相對較大的下降，但我們如何看待經濟利潤水平不合理的地方，對嗎？我的意思是，如果這是該資金池內部回報率的代理，那麼 13.2% 的利差。我的意思是，或者我們只是看這個數字來降低你的融資成本，或者這個數字在哪裡對你來說變得不經濟？

It depends on which program you're talking about. On the purchase program, a 1% decline in the forecasted collection rate, you tax effect that and you have to account for timing, but that ends up driving a reduction in our return. The portfolio program is a little bit more complicated to think about because the shortfall of collections is shared on an 80-20 basis with the dealer up to a certain point. The portfolio program insulates us from variations in consumer loan performance where the purchase program doesn't. So, the purchase program is obviously a lot more sensitive. Our profitability on the purchase program is more sensitive to declines in forecasted collection rates than is the portfolio program.

這取決於您所談論的程序。在購買計劃中，預計收款率下降 1%，您會對此徵稅，並且必須考慮時間安排，但這最終會導致我們的回報減少。投資組合計劃考慮起來有點複雜，因為在一定程度上，收藏品的短缺是按 80-20 的比例與經銷商分擔的。投資組合計劃使我們免受消費貸款績效變化的影響，而購買計劃則不然。所以，採購計畫顯然要敏感得多。與投資組合計劃相比，我們購買計劃的獲利能力對預測收款率下降更為敏感。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

With no further questions in queue, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Martin for any additional or closing remarks.

由於沒有其他問題，我想將會議轉回馬丁先生進行補充或結束演講。

We would like to thank everyone for their support and for joining us on the conference call today. If you have any additional follow up questions, please direct them to our investor relations mailbox at ir.creditacceptance.com. We look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Thank you.

我們要感謝大家的支持以及今天參加我們的電話會議。如果您有任何其他後續問題，請將其發送至我們的投資者關係郵箱：ir.creditacceptance.com。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。謝謝。

Once again, this does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

今天的會議再次結束。我們感謝您的參與。