Camden National Corp (CAC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Camden National Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is [Foran,] and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements, which involve significant risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to vary materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements are described in the company's earnings press release, the company's 2021 annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Camden National Corporation 的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。我叫 [Foran,]，我將擔任今天電話會議的接線員。 （操作員說明）請注意，本演示文稿包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，請參見公司的收益新聞稿、公司 2021 年 10-K 表格年度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。

The company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the forward-looking statements are made. Any references in today's presentation to non-GAAP financial measures are intended to provide meaningful insights and are reconciled with GAAP in your press release. Today's presenters are Greg Dufour, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Archer, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please note that this event is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Greg Dufour. Please go ahead, sir.

公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述以反映作出前瞻性陳述後發生的情況或事件的義務。今天的演示文稿中對非 GAAP 財務指標的任何引用都旨在提供有意義的見解，並在您的新聞稿中與 GAAP 保持一致。今天的主持人是總裁兼首席執行官 Greg Dufour；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Mike Archer。請注意，此事件正在記錄中。此時，我想將會議轉交給 Greg Dufour。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to Camden National Corporation's fourth quarter 2022 Earnings Call. For the fourth quarter of 2022, we reported net income of $15.4 million or earnings per diluted share of $1.05, which was 8% better than the third quarter of '22. This resulted in total annual earnings for 2022 of $61.4 million, an 11% decrease from our record earnings of $69 million recorded in 2021 and a 9% decrease in diluted earnings per share over the same period. We were pleased with our fourth quarter performance in several areas. Noninterest income, excluding a $903,000 pretax security loss was $10.7 million and was on the higher end of our expectations.

謝謝大家，歡迎大家參加 Camden National Corporation 的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 2022 年第四季度，我們報告的淨收入為 1540 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 1.05 美元，比 22 年第三季度高出 8%。這導致 2022 年的年度總收益為 6140 萬美元，比我們 2021 年創紀錄的 6900 萬美元收益減少 11%，同期攤薄後每股收益減少 9%。我們對第四季度在多個領域的表現感到滿意。不包括 903,000 美元的稅前安全損失，非利息收入為 1,070 萬美元，處於我們預期的較高端。

The security loss recorded in the fourth quarter is part of the balance sheet restructuring that Mike will describe during his comments. Operating expenses of $27 million in the quarter was as we expected and resulted in a 56.4% non-GAAP efficiency ratio. Finally, our provision for credit losses was $466,000, down from $2.8 million recorded in the third quarter. At our earnings call last quarter, we signaled -- we could see our allowance and provision levels begin to stabilize should asset quality remain strong and no significant changes in the economic outlook occurring during the fourth quarter.

第四季度記錄的安全損失是邁克將在其評論中描述的資產負債表重組的一部分。本季度 2,700 萬美元的運營支出符合我們的預期，非 GAAP 效率比為 56.4%。最後，我們的信貸損失準備金為 466,000 美元，低於第三季度記錄的 280 萬美元。在我們上個季度的財報電話會議上，我們發出信號——如果資產質量保持強勁並且第四季度經濟前景沒有發生重大變化，我們可以看到我們的準備金和撥備水平開始穩定。

We are pleased to see this materialize as asset quality remain very strong by all measures to close of the year. We ended the year with an allowance to total loans of 0.92%, 92 basis points and our reserve levels covering nonperforming assets, 7.2x. We feel that we are well positioned at those levels in our current loan portfolio. We also continue to see the negative impact of the significant and prolonged inverted yield curve, which contributed to a 2.76% net interest margin for the fourth quarter, down 12 basis points from the prior quarter. You'll recall that last quarter's conference call, we indicated our expectation for margin was to remain relatively flat to slightly down during the fourth quarter, which did not materialize.

我們很高興看到這一點成為現實，因為今年年底的所有措施都表明資產質量仍然非常強勁。年底，我們對總貸款的撥備率為 0.92%，為 92 個基點，我們的不良資產準備金水平為 7.2 倍。我們認為，在當前的貸款組合中，我們在這些水平上處於有利地位。我們還繼續看到顯著且長期的收益率曲線倒掛的負面影響，第四季度淨息差為 2.76%，較上一季度下降 12 個基點。你會記得上一季度的電話會議，我們表示我們對利潤率的預期在第四季度保持相對平穩或略有下降，但沒有實現。

Mike will provide a more detailed explanation during his comments. What I'd like to share at this point is where our strategic focus will be for the coming quarters. First, we are focused on net interest income and net interest margin through several strategies. First and foremost, we are focused on pricing of both loans and deposits. As of year-end, our deposit beta through the cycle so far was just over 20% and our total funding beta was 21%, while our earning asset beta was just over 18%.

Mike 將在他的評論中提供更詳細的解釋。我現在想分享的是我們未來幾個季度的戰略重點。首先，我們通過多種策略關注淨利息收入和淨息差。首先，我們專注於貸款和存款的定價。截至年底，我們整個週期的存款貝塔剛剛超過 20%，我們的總資金貝塔為 21%，而我們的盈利資產貝塔剛剛超過 18%。

As you've seen us do in the past, the primary objective will be on strengthening our existing relationships and developing new ones versus chasing transactions for both loans and deposits. Secondly, we have pursued and will continue to pursue opportunities to logically reposition our balance sheet based on both the current and future interest rate cycle. We'll analyze opportunities that make long-term sense as well as those that fit into our risk profile, such as the restructuring that was done in the fourth quarter.

正如您在過去看到的那樣，主要目標將是加強我們現有的關係並發展新關係，而不是追逐貸款和存款交易。其次，我們已經並將繼續尋求機會，根據當前和未來的利率週期從邏輯上重新定位我們的資產負債表。我們將分析具有長期意義的機會以及適合我們風險狀況的機會，例如第四季度完成的重組。

Finally, we recognize that we're operating in a hypercompetitive environment. And we see loan deals that are [not in] prices, which we're not comfortable with. Accordingly, we anticipate loan growth to be on the lower side of our mid-single digits for the year, and we'll accept that in order to focus on the long term. Turning to asset quality. It continues to be a major focus of ours. While strong today, we do not take it for granted. Today, we're enjoying the benefits of our strong underwriting, but we complement that with our risk management structure to look for potential signs of weakness. Those efforts may include analysis such as migration of FICO scores, all the way to swiftly working with customers at the first sign of distress.

最後，我們認識到我們在一個競爭異常激烈的環境中運營。我們看到貸款交易 [not in] 價格，我們對此感到不舒服。因此，我們預計今年的貸款增長將處於中等個位數的較低水平，我們會接受這一點，以便專注於長期發展。轉向資產質量。它仍然是我們的主要關注點。雖然今天很強大，但我們並不認為這是理所當然的。今天，我們正在享受我們強大承保的好處，但我們用我們的風險管理結構來補充它，以尋找潛在的疲軟跡象。這些努力可能包括分析，例如 FICO 分數的遷移，一直到在遇到困難的第一個跡象時迅速與客戶合作。

Another focus area is our expense structure. While we're operating within our expected parameters, our previous investments in process automation have helped make many areas more efficient and productive. For example, I previously shared our efforts to streamline our small business and commercial loan processing efforts. That effort hit its stride in the fourth quarter, and we're already seeing processing efficiency improvements, ranging from 30% to 35% efficiency. And our overall efficiency ratio for the total organization is within our target range of 55% to 58%. Finally, as we always have been, we are focused on our capital and our 2022 earnings of $61.4 million provides us ample resources to grow capital as we reward shareholders, including our 5% dividend increase announced in December. I'll pause here and let Mike provide his review and comments.

另一個重點領域是我們的費用結構。雖然我們在預期參數範圍內運營，但我們之前在過程自動化方面的投資幫助提高了許多領域的效率和生產力。例如，我之前分享了我們為簡化小企業和商業貸款處理工作所做的努力。這項努力在第四季度取得了進展，我們已經看到處理效率有所提高，效率從 30% 到 35% 不等。我們整個組織的整體效率比率在我們 55% 到 58% 的目標範圍內。最後，一如既往，我們專注於我們的資本，我們 2022 年 6140 萬美元的收益為我們提供了充足的資源來增加資本，因為我們獎勵股東，包括我們在 12 月宣布的 5% 的股息增長。我會在這裡暫停，讓 Mike 提供他的評論和評論。

Thank you, Greg, and good afternoon, everyone. Earlier today, we reported net income for the year ended 2022 of $61.4 million and diluted EPS of $4.17 and -- and while down from last year's record earnings, we're certainly pleased with these annual results, particularly in light of the significant change in market dynamics between years. On a non-GAAP pretax pre-provision basis, the company recorded earnings of $81.5 million for the year, down 2% from last year. In addition, adjusting for SBA PPP loan income, earnings totaled $80.3 million, a 7% increase over last year. These core results make us confident in navigating today's short-term challenges while remaining focused on the long term. We continue to focus on generating shareholder returns through strong sustainable core earnings and strategies and deploying capital to organically grow the franchise.

謝謝 Greg，大家下午好。今天早些時候，我們報告了截至 2022 年的淨收入為 6140 萬美元，攤薄後每股收益為 4.17 美元，雖然低於去年創紀錄的收益，但我們對這些年度業績當然感到滿意，特別是考慮到年之間的市場動態。在非美國通用會計準則稅前撥備基礎上，該公司全年收入為 8150 萬美元，比去年下降 2%。此外，調整 SBA PPP 貸款收入後，收益總計 8030 萬美元，比去年增長 7%。這些核心成果使我們有信心應對當今的短期挑戰，同時繼續關注長期。我們繼續專注於通過強大的可持續核心收益和戰略創造股東回報，並部署資本以有機地發展特許經營權。

We also continue to prudently return capital to shareholders for a mix of dividends and share repurchases. Our dividend payout ratio for the year ended 2022 was 39%, which included a $0.02 or 5% increase in our quarterly dividend that we announced in the fourth quarter.

我們還繼續審慎地通過股息和股票回購的方式向股東返還資本。我們截至 2022 年的股息支付率為 39%，其中包括我們在第四季度宣布的季度股息增加 0.02 美元或 5%。

And we repurchased 225,245 shares of our common stock throughout the year. On a linked quarter basis, we reported net income of $15.4 million and diluted EPS of $1.05 for the fourth quarter, each an increase of 8% over last quarter. Many of our key financial metrics that we track remain solid for the fourth quarter, including a return on average assets of 1.09%, a return on average tangible equity of 18.2% and an efficiency ratio of 56.4%.

我們全年回購了 225,245 股普通股。在相關季度的基礎上，我們報告第四季度的淨收入為 1540 萬美元，攤薄後每股收益為 1.05 美元，均比上一季度增長 8%。我們跟踪的許多關鍵財務指標在第四季度保持穩健，包括 1.09% 的平均資產回報率、18.2% 的平均有形資產回報率和 56.4% 的效率比。

On a non-GAAP basis, pretax pre-provision earnings for the fourth quarter were $19.8 million, a 4% decrease from the third quarter. Not unlike other banks, we too have felt the impact of the inverted yield curve with short-term rates rising quickly throughout 2022. Net interest income for the fourth quarter decreased 2% from the third quarter despite average interest-earning assets growing 2% and as net interest margin compressed 12 basis points on a linked quarter basis.

按非美國通用會計準則計算，第四季度稅前撥備前收益為 1980 萬美元，較第三季度下降 4%。與其他銀行一樣，我們也感受到了收益率曲線倒掛的影響，短期利率在整個 2022 年迅速上升。第四季度的淨利息收入比第三季度下降了 2%，儘管平均生息資產增長了 2%，由於淨息差環比壓縮 12 個基點。

Our interest-earning asset yield grew 27 basis points during the fourth quarter to 3.67% as we continue to see our loan and investment yields increase. Generally, we continue to leverage investment cash flow to fund loan growth and anticipate continuing to do so over the coming quarters.

我們的生息資產收益率在第四季度增長了 27 個基點，達到 3.67%，因為我們繼續看到我們的貸款和投資收益率上升。一般來說，我們繼續利用投資現金流為貸款增長提供資金，並預計在未來幾個季度繼續這樣做。

As Greg mentioned in his comments, we anticipate loan growth to moderate in 2023 in the current environment as we manage our net interest margin and protect long-term franchise value.

正如 Greg 在其評論中提到的那樣，我們預計在當前環境下貸款增長將在 2023 年放緩，因為我們會管理淨息差並保護長期特許經營價值。

To that end, we have seen our loan pipelines drop considerably from the end of the third quarter. More recently, committed residential mortgage and commercial loan pipelines have been hovering around $50 million each and our weighted average rates in these portfolios ranging from 6.4% to 6.7%.

為此，我們已經看到我們的貸款渠道從第三季度末開始大幅下降。最近，承諾的住宅抵押貸款和商業貸款管道一直徘徊在 5000 萬美元左右，我們在這些投資組合中的加權平均利率在 6.4% 到 6.7% 之間。

In the fourth quarter, we put into portfolio 84% of our residential mortgage production through strategies and actions taken, our current residential mortgage pipeline designated for sale has grown to 30%. In the fourth quarter, deposit costs grew 39 basis points to 0.84%, representing a deposit beta of 29%.

在第四季度，我們通過採取的戰略和行動將 84% 的住宅抵押貸款產品投入投資組合，我們目前指定出售的住宅抵押貸款管道已增長到 30%。第四季度，存款成本增長 39 個基點至 0.84%，存款貝塔係數為 29%。

While our deposit costs grew at a faster rate during the fourth quarter than it had in previous quarters. It was not unexpected as the Fed raised rates another 125 basis points during the quarter and deposit competition throughout our markets continues to heat up. We have considered and continue to look at other alternative borrowing strategies.

雖然我們的存款成本在第四季度的增長速度比前幾個季度快。這並不出人意料，因為美聯儲在本季度又將利率提高了 125 個基點，並且整個市場的存款競爭繼續升溫。我們已經考慮並將繼續研究其他替代借貸策略。

During the quarter, we entered into a laddered brokered CD strategy that stretches over 12 months. Doing so allowed us to lock in approximately $100 million of funding and based on current short-term rate forecast, should benefit us over coming quarters.

在本季度，我們採用了一個持續超過 12 個月的階梯式經紀 CD 策略。這樣做使我們能夠鎖定大約 1 億美元的資金，並且根據當前的短期利率預測，我們應該會在未來幾個季度受益。

Overall, for the year ended 2022, our deposit beta was 20.2% and our all-in funding beta was 21%, which continue to be within our target. We do anticipate further net interest margin compression in the first quarter of '23 as we are in the peak of normal seasonal outflows combined with expected further rate hikes by the Fed in the first quarter. We have and continue to review strategies to optimize net interest income and net interest margin.

總體而言，截至 2022 年，我們的存款貝塔係數為 20.2%，我們的總資金貝塔係數為 21%，繼續保持在我們的目標範圍內。我們確實預計 23 年第一季度淨息差將進一步壓縮，因為我們正處於正常季節性資金流出的高峰期，加上美聯儲預計在第一季度進一步加息。我們已經並將繼續審查優化淨利息收入和淨息差的策略。

Recently, we have executed on the following strategies. In the fourth quarter, we completed an investment restructure, whereby we sold approximately $28 million of securities, had a loss of $903,000 and repurchased approximately $28 million in securities with higher yields.

最近，我們執行了以下策略。第四季度，我們完成了一項投資重組，我們出售了約 2800 萬美元的證券，損失了 903000 美元，並回購了約 2800 萬美元的收益率更高的證券。

The expected earn back is about 1 year and expected to provide 1 to 2 basis points of net interest margin lift with a full quarter benefit. Last week, we executed on 2 interest rate swap strategies, swapping $200 million of fixed rate cash flows on loans for variable rate cash flows tied to Fed funds rate.

預期的收益回報約為 1 年，預計將提供 1 至 2 個基點的淨息差提升以及整個季度的收益。上週，我們執行了 2 項利率掉期策略，將 2 億美元的固定利率貸款現金流換成與聯邦基金利率掛鉤的可變利率現金流。

Based on the current swap curve, these swaps provide additional interest income immediately and is anticipated to provide additional benefit over the year based on the market's current expectations of Fed funds. We currently estimate a full quarter net interest margin lift to 4 to 5 basis points should market expectation on Fed funds hold true. For the fourth quarter of 2022, we provisioned $466,000 of expenditure expected credit losses, which is a decrease of $2.3 million compared to last quarter.

根據當前的互換曲線，這些互換會立即提供額外的利息收入，並且根據市場當前對聯邦基金的預期，預計將在一年內提供額外的收益。如果市場對聯邦基金的預期成立，我們目前估計整個季度的淨息差將提高 4 到 5 個基點。對於 2022 年第四季度，我們計提了 466,000 美元的支出預期信用損失，與上一季度相比減少了 230 萬美元。

Our credit portfolio remains in pristine condition supported by nonperforming loans to 0.13% of total loans at December 31, 2022, consistent with last quarter. Minimal net charge-offs and delinquent loans totaling 6 basis points of total loans at December 31, 2022, compared to 12 basis points last quarter. We continue to actively monitor and assess our loan portfolio for signs of distress based on current and forecasted market conditions. However, we've not identified any such trends to date.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們的信貸組合在不良貸款的支持下保持原始狀態，佔貸款總額的 0.13%，與上一季度一致。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，最低淨註銷和拖欠貸款佔總貸款的 6 個基點，而上一季度為 12 個基點。我們繼續根據當前和預測的市場狀況，積極監控和評估我們的貸款組合是否存在困境跡象。但是，到目前為止，我們還沒有發現任何此類趨勢。

At December 31, 2022, our allowance to total loans ratio stood at 0.92%, down 3 basis points from last quarter. We believe this reserve level is appropriate given the strength of our credit [volume and knowing it] provides us with 7.2x coverage over total nonperforming loans at December 31, 2022, which is consistent with last quarter. Noninterest income for the fourth quarter of 2022 totaled $9.8 million, including the $903,000 loss on the investment trade discussed earlier. On a linked-quarter basis, noninterest income was down 2%, but excluding the investment trade loss, noninterest income would have been 7% higher.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們的撥備佔貸款總額的比率為 0.92%，較上一季度下降 3 個基點。我們認為這一準備金水平是合適的，因為我們的信貸實力 [數量和了解它] 為我們提供了 2022 年 12 月 31 日不良貸款總額的 7.2 倍覆蓋率，這與上一季度一致。 2022 年第四季度的非利息收入總計 980 萬美元，其中包括之前討論的投資交易損失 903,000 美元。按季度環比計算，非利息收入下降了 2%，但若不計入投資貿易損失，非利息收入本應增長 7%。

In the fourth quarter, each year, we recognized our annual debit card volume-based incentives. This year, that incentive was $806,000 and drove the increase in debit card income between quarters. Mortgage banking income also increased in the fourth quarter compared to last quarter. The increase was a result of the change in the fair value on our lock salable residential loan pipeline between quarters. Otherwise, mortgage banking income would have decreased between quarters as residential mortgage production for the fourth quarter was down 28% and our sold production was down 45% compared to last quarter. Our noninterest income forecast for next quarter is $9 million to $9.5 million.

每年第四季度，我們都會確認每年基於借記卡數量的激勵措施。今年，該激勵措施為 806,000 美元，推動了季度間借記卡收入的增長。與上一季度相比，第四季度抵押銀行業務收入也有所增加。增加是由於我們鎖定的可售住宅貸款渠道的公允價值在兩個季度之間發生變化。否則，由於第四季度的住宅抵押貸款產量下降了 28%，我們的銷售產量與上一季度相比下降了 45%，因此抵押貸款銀行收入在兩個季度之間會有所下降。我們對下一季度的非利息收入預測為 900 萬至 950 萬美元。

Noninterest expense for the fourth quarter totaled $27 million, slightly down from last quarter. Our non-GAAP efficiency ratio for the quarter was 56.4%, was also consistent with last quarter. We estimate our first quarter 2023 expenses will tick up 2% to 3%, factoring the impact of the FDIC assessment increase that takes effect for all insured banks and partial quarter impact of normal merit increases.

第四季度的非利息支出總計 2700 萬美元，略低於上一季度。我們本季度的非 GAAP 效率率為 56.4%，也與上一季度一致。我們估計我們 2023 年第一季度的支出將增加 2% 至 3%，考慮到對所有受保銀行生效的 FDIC 評估增加的影響以及正常績效增加的部分季度影響。

The company's regulatory capital ratios continue to be well in excess of regulatory capital requirements as of December 31, 2022, supporting the strength of our core capital position.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，公司的監管資本比率繼續遠遠超過監管資本要求，支持了我們核心資本狀況的實力。

Tangible book value per share increased to $1.40 or 6% during the fourth quarter to $24.37 at December 31, 2022, and our tangible common equity ratio increased 24 basis points in the quarter to 6.37% at December 31. This concludes our comments on our fourth quarter results.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，每股有形賬面價值增至 1.40 美元或 6%，達到 24.37 美元，截至 12 月 31 日，我們的有形普通股權益比率在本季度增加了 24 個基點，達到 6.37%。我們對第四季度的評論到此結束季度業績。

And now I'll turn the call back to Greg.

現在我會把電話轉回給格雷格。

Thanks, Mike. Before opening the call for questions, I'd like to point out a few closing thoughts here. Mike described some strategies we've executed, including the investment portfolio restructure and swap strategy. We equally, if not more so focused on organic strategies to improve our positioning in this environment.

謝謝，邁克。在開始提問之前，我想在這裡指出一些結束語。邁克描述了我們已經執行的一些策略，包括投資組合重組和掉期策略。我們同樣，甚至更專注於有機戰略，以改善我們在這種環境中的定位。

Some of those have demonstrated in the yields in our loan pipelines that are above 6.5%, which is strong considering we're routinely competing against pricing in the low 5% range, if not lower. Our loan-to-deposit ratio 83% demonstrates our franchise value, along with growing core deposits 6% in 2022.

其中一些已經在我們的貸款管道中證明了高於 6.5% 的收益率，考慮到我們經常與低 5% 範圍內的定價競爭，如果不是更低的話，這是很強的。我們 83% 的貸存比證明了我們的特許經營價值，2022 年核心存款增長 6%。

Also, as we mentioned, our efficiency ratio is within our normal operating range of 56%. And from a risk perspective, we're also well positioned.

此外，正如我們提到的，我們的效率比在 56% 的正常運行範圍內。從風險的角度來看，我們也處於有利地位。

Tangible common equity ratio 6.37% and is complemented by an ACL to total loan ratio of 92 basis points and 7x coverage on nonperforming assets.

有形普通股權益比率為 6.37%，ACL 與總貸款比率為 92 個基點，不良資產覆蓋率為 7 倍。

With that as a backdrop, we'll open it up for questions, please.

以此為背景，我們將公開提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steve Moss with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Steve Moss 和 Raymond James 的對話。

And then maybe just start off on the margin here. Just kind of curious how you guys are thinking about -- any updated thoughts you may have around deposit pricing as we go through the cycle here. Maybe if the Fed goes to 5 and holds throughout the rest of the year, just kind of how you're thinking about the margin?

然後也許只是從這裡開始。只是有點好奇你們是如何思考的——當我們在這裡經歷這個週期時，你們可能對存款定價有任何更新的想法。也許如果美聯儲升至 5 並在今年餘下的時間裡保持不變，那麼您是如何考慮利潤率的？

Yes. So I'll take that, Steve. This is Mike. I think in terms of the deposit side, we're expecting, particularly in the first quarter, Fed continues to hike, we'll continue to see the deposit beta probably in the 30% to 35% range. Let's call it close to where we were, maybe slightly up. I think the other factor there, certainly on the deposit side is just the competition, I think, both myself and Greg alluded to just in our comments. We are certainly seeing that pick up. We have seen that over the last quarter as local market competitors and others are certainly looking for liquidity in the current market.

是的。所以我接受了，史蒂夫。這是邁克。我認為就存款方面而言，我們預計，尤其是在第一季度，美聯儲繼續加息，我們將繼續看到存款貝塔可能在 30% 至 35% 的範圍內。讓我們稱它接近我們所在的位置，也許稍微高一點。我認為那裡的另一個因素，當然在存款方面只是競爭，我認為，我和格雷格都在我們的評論中提到過。我們當然看到了這種回升。我們已經看到，在上個季度，本地市場競爭對手和其他人肯定在當前市場中尋找流動性。

Overall, from a margin perspective, we are -- I think I mentioned in my comments, expecting that to see some compression likely for the first quarter. Overall, we're thinking -- and I would say it's heavily caveated by a lot of factors that we all know in terms of what the Fed actually does and as well as from the market competition, but also some of the strategies that we put into place. But all in, we're thinking that margin would probably be around 265, plus or minus 2 to 3 basis points on either end.

總的來說，從利潤率的角度來看，我們是——我想我在評論中提到過，預計第一季度可能會出現一些壓縮。總的來說，我們正在考慮——我想說的是，我們都知道很多因素，包括美聯儲的實際行動以及市場競爭，還有我們提出的一些策略到位。但總而言之，我們認為保證金可能在 265 左右，兩端加減 2 到 3 個基點。

From there, I would just, again, probably not in a spot to give forward guidance after first quarter just for all the factors at play here. But thinking that from there with normal seasonal inflows starting to come in as well as the hopes that the Fed starts to stabilize the slowdown on rates and loans continuing to reprice. And as Greg mentioned, too, is just a strong loan pipeline that we have in terms of rates, we anticipate that margin from there would start to rebound.

從那裡開始，我可能不會在第一季度後就這裡的所有因素給出前瞻性指導。但考慮到從那裡開始正常的季節性資金流入以及美聯儲開始穩定利率放緩和貸款繼續重新定價的希望。正如格雷格提到的那樣，我們在利率方面也擁有強大的貸款渠道，我們預計利潤率將從那裡開始反彈。

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe just in terms of the loan demand you guys are seeing these days. Just curious on how you're thinking about the -- what parts of the portfolio you expect to drive growth in 2023?

好的。這很有幫助。也許就你們這些天看到的貸款需求而言。只是想知道你是如何考慮的——你希望在 2023 年推動增長的投資組合的哪些部分？

Sure. What I'd say is that we're seeing a shift really -- previously, obviously, residential was driving it. That market is lower, partly because of, call it, just the overall real estate market, but our pricing. We're pricing higher than competitors. So we're seeing and experiencing really the shift over the commercial and small business side. And within the commercial, that's where our balance sheet size for the markets that we're in, our ability to structure helps us and helps justify a higher rate.

當然。我要說的是，我們確實看到了一種轉變——以前，很明顯，住宅正在推動它。那個市場較低，部分原因是整個房地產市場，但我們的定價。我們的定價高於競爭對手。因此，我們正在看到並體驗到商業和小型企業方面的真正轉變。在商業領域，這就是我們所處市場的資產負債表規模所在，我們的結構能力幫助我們並幫助證明更高的利率是合理的。

And on the small business side, really, that's been a great start-up product that is ramping up for us and they tend to run higher balances. And that leverages the reengineering that we did and new software that we have especially on the small business side. So now we can instant decision, depending on collateral close within a few days, which is really serving the customer need and helps us command a higher yield on that.

在小企業方面，真的，這是一個很棒的初創產品，正在為我們增加，他們往往會有更高的餘額。這利用了我們所做的重新設計和我們擁有的新軟件，尤其是在小型企業方面。所以現在我們可以根據幾天內關閉的抵押品做出即時決定，這真正滿足了客戶的需求，並幫助我們獲得更高的收益。

Our next question comes from the line of Damon DelMonte with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Damon DelMonte 與 KBW 的對話。

I just wanted to get a little perspective here on the outlook for provision. You noted that at 92 basis points, you feel pretty good about that reserve level. It's over 7x covering NPLs, I believe. So with the expectation of loan growth slowing, the health of the portfolio remaining intact as of today, would you expect a similar level of provisioning like we saw in the fourth quarter as we start off in '23 for at least the first half of the year?

我只是想在這裡對提供的前景有一點看法。您注意到在 92 個基點時，您對該準備金水平感覺良好。我相信，它覆蓋了不良貸款的 7 倍以上。因此，隨著貸款增長放緩的預期，截至今天，投資組合的健康狀況保持不變，您是否期望至少在 23 年上半年開始時，我們在第四季度看到的類似水平的準備金年？

Yes, I can take that one, Damon. So I guess in terms of maybe the way I would talk about it is -- so we're at 92 basis points right now. We feel pretty good about that. Again, I think in part, it's going to depend on the economics and the economic outlook if that should change. But assuming we stand and kind of hold to where we are and as we mentioned, no signs of credit issues ahead. But assuming everything holds constant, I would say that 92, 95 basis points somewhere in there, we could continue to hover.

是的，我可以接受那個，達蒙。所以我想也許我會談論它的方式是 - 所以我們現在處於 92 個基點。我們對此感覺很好。同樣，我認為在一定程度上，這是否會改變將取決於經濟和經濟前景。但假設我們堅持並堅持我們所處的位置，正如我們提到的那樣，未來沒有信貸問題的跡象。但假設一切都保持不變，我會說在那裡的某個地方有 92、95 個基點，我們可以繼續徘徊。

Okay, okay that's helpful. And then could you just go back to the 2 steps you took to try to preserve the margin here? The first, you mentioned that little repositioning with the $28 million. You said you sold the right $28 million of securities and then you reinvested those proceeds, is that correct?

不錯不錯有用然後你能不能回到你為保持這裡的邊距而採取的 2 個步驟？首先，你提到了 2800 萬美元的小規模重新定位。你說你賣出了正確的 2800 萬美元證券，然後將這些收益再投資，對嗎？

That's right, yes. So we essentially -- I think those yields on those securities were around 260, then we essentially purchased another $28 million with around a 6% yield.

沒錯，是的。所以我們基本上——我認為這些證券的收益率約為 260，然後我們基本上又購買了 2800 萬美元，收益率約為 6%。

Okay. And what kind of securities were those?

好的。那是什麼樣的證券？

It is a mix of corporate and MBS, primarily, I believe, corporate.

它是公司和 MBS 的混合體，我認為主要是公司。

Got it. Okay. And then the 2 swap agreements, could you just go over those specifics again?

知道了。好的。然後是 2 份互換協議，你能再說一遍這些細節嗎？

Sure. So we did $200 million notional in total. It was $150 million 3-year, I always have to think about this, get this right, received pay fixed, receive variable. I think the pay amount on that was -- my notes here, 1 second. The pay amount on that was $371 million and then we did another $50 million for a 5-year swap and the pay amount on that was $334 million, and both of those are receiving Fed fund OIS.

當然。所以我們名義上總共做了 2 億美元。這是 1.5 億美元的 3 年，我總是要考慮這個，把這個做對，收到固定的薪水，收到可變的薪水。我認為支付的金額是——我在這裡的筆記，1 秒。支付金額為 3.71 億美元，然後我們又進行了 5000 萬美元的 5 年期掉期交易，支付金額為 3.34 億美元，兩者都收到了聯邦基金 OIS。

Got it. Okay. All right. Great. And then I guess on the expense outlook, you said 2% to 3% from the fourth quarter into the first. Overall, do you expect 2% to 3% for the entire year? Or is that just like from the first quarter and then another lift after that?

知道了。好的。好的。偉大的。然後我猜關於費用前景，你說從第四季度到第一季度是 2% 到 3%。總體而言，您預計全年會增長 2% 到 3% 嗎？還是就像從第一季度開始，然後又是一次提升？

So that guidance was generally for the first quarter. I listed a couple of factors in there -- in the FDIC fees and just normal merit. So call it, I would say that's about (inaudible) The one item I would just highlight is, historically, we've continued to manage within our efficiency ratio range of call it, 55% to 58%, and we'll certainly do that throughout the year, and that's our expectation.

所以這個指導一般是針對第一季度的。我在那裡列出了幾個因素——聯邦存款保險公司的費用和正常的優點。所以稱之為，我想說那是關於（聽不清）我要強調的一個項目是，從歷史上看，我們一直在我們的效率比率範圍內管理它，55% 到 58%，我們肯定會這樣做全年都是如此，這是我們的期望。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matthew Breese 與 Stephens Inc. 的合作。

Just thinking about the overall NIM forecast. Within that, I was curious where do you have demand deposits going down to in this quarter, end of the year at 24%? Pre-COVID, think it was at 16%, if you go further back, Camden was operating in kind of a 10% to 15% range pre great financial crisis. So just curious where do you think this figure goes during this tightening cycle? And what structurally keeps you around your estimates?

只是考慮整體 NIM 預測。其中，我很好奇您的活期存款在本季度（年底）下降到 24% 的水平？在 COVID 之前，認為它是 16%，如果你再往前看，卡姆登在金融危機前的 10% 到 15% 的範圍內運營。所以很好奇你認為這個數字在這個緊縮週期中會去哪裡？是什麼在結構上讓你保持在你的估計範圍內？

Yes. So we're trying to pull that number, Matt. But I would just comment that we have seen some pressure in terms of some of the bigger commercial -- sophisticated commercial customers looking for interest. So we've seen some mix shift, if you will, from DDA over to now interest checking. So we've seen some of that shift occur. I think that's become more common. Certainly, we're managing that internally, having the proactive conversations with our -- primarily our business customers. But certainly, there is more pressure on that.

是的。所以我們正在努力拉動這個數字，馬特。但我只想評論說，我們已經看到一些更大的商業 - 尋求興趣的複雜商業客戶的壓力。所以我們已經看到了一些混合轉變，如果你願意的話，從 DDA 到現在的利息檢查。所以我們已經看到了一些轉變的發生。我認為這變得越來越普遍。當然，我們在內部進行管理，與我們——主要是我們的企業客戶進行主動對話。但可以肯定的是，這方面的壓力更大。

As we think about -- I'm sorry, Mike, go ahead.

正如我們所想的那樣——對不起，邁克，請繼續。

I was going to say we can connect to off-line and give you some thoughts on that -- on the DDA specifically.

我想說的是我們可以連接到離線並給你一些想法——特別是關於 DDA。

Okay. Do you expect deposit growth in '23? If so, what areas? And maybe you could comment on further reliance on broker deposits?

好的。您預計 23 年的存款會增長嗎？如果有，是哪些地區？也許您可以評論一下對經紀人存款的進一步依賴？

Sure. I'll take the last one first. So we haven't executed. We are looking at some broker deposits, additional $90 million to $100 million we are looking at right now just to supplement funding and having it be more cost effective, particularly as we anticipate Fed funds is going to continue to move higher. So we are looking at that. We'll likely look at a later CD like we just spoke about kind of stretching out over 12 months there. And I apologize, what was the first part of your question there?

當然。我先拿最後一個。所以我們還沒有執行。我們正在考慮一些經紀人存款，我們現在正在考慮額外的 9000 萬至 1 億美元，以補充資金並使其更具成本效益，特別是在我們預計聯邦基金將繼續走高的情況下。所以我們正在研究這一點。我們可能會看看以後的 CD，就像我們剛才談到的那樣，在那裡延長 12 個月。抱歉，您的問題的第一部分是什麼？

What kind of deposit growth? Yes, the outlook for the year?

什麼樣的存款增長？是的，今年的展望？

Yes. I believe it was mid-single digits from a deposit growth perspective, what we had...

是的。我相信從存款增長的角度來看，這是中等個位數，我們擁有...

And I would say, strategically, Matt, to keep in mind a couple of things is that we still have a very strong retail franchise, and that gets back into my comment of focusing on relationships. The team has done a great job, although deposits have always been a focus of ours, as you know, through incentives, through internal promotions, external promotions, strengthening that at this time to build the relationship side.

我會說，從戰略上講，馬特，要記住幾件事，我們仍然擁有非常強大的零售特許經營權，這又回到了我對關注關係的評論中。團隊做得很好，儘管存款一直是我們的重點，正如你所知，通過激勵，通過內部晉升，外部晉升，加強，在這個時候建立關係方。

The other thing within our deposit focus is what has ramped up more over the past few years, is on the treasury management side that we have, and Mike alluded to some of the big commercial depositors that we have. So that's another lever set of tools that we have. We have a great team within that, that we are very much focused on deposit growth.

我們存款重點中的另一件事是在過去幾年中增加的更多，是我們擁有的資金管理方面，邁克提到了我們擁有的一些大型商業存款人。所以這是我們擁有的另一組槓桿工具。我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，我們非常專注於存款增長。

And with that said, call it, from a sales management perspective, that's where we're focused on. And more we can drive down that rate or stabilize that rate, it just gives us more flexibility on the lending side. With all of that said, I'll note that in our markets, we are seeing, I think I even said hypercompetitive markets on the deposit side and the loan side. But that's our focus. And we'll do it prudently.

話雖如此，從銷售管理的角度來看，這就是我們關注的地方。而且我們可以降低利率或穩定利率，這只會讓我們在貸款方面有更大的靈活性。綜上所述，我會注意到在我們的市場中，我們看到，我想我什至說過存款方和貸款方的競爭激烈的市場。但這是我們的重點。我們會謹慎行事。

Understood. And then just assisting with loan growth for the year, I would assume we continue to see securities growth? Michael, you had mentioned that in your remarks. What is the monthly kind of cash flow from the securities portfolio at this point?

明白了。然後只是協助今年的貸款增長，我想我們會繼續看到證券增長？邁克爾，你在發言中提到過這一點。此時證券投資組合的每月現金流量是多少？

Yes. It's generally $9 million to $10 million on average we're seeing on the cash flow. I think realistically, Matt, we'll probably redeploy those investment cash flows into either offsetting funding or call it, overnight funding, borrowings or into fund loan growth realistically, just based on current yields, but something we'll continue to monitor throughout the year.

是的。我們看到的現金流量平均為 900 萬至 1000 萬美元。我認為現實一點，馬特，我們可能會根據當前收益率，將這些投資現金流重新部署到抵消資金或稱之為隔夜融資、借款或基金貸款增長中，但我們將在整個過程中繼續監測年。

Okay. Last one for me is just on the renewed repurchase authorization, I think it was 750,000 shares. You've been pretty active recently at these levels. Is that something we should expect you to continue to execute on?

好的。最後一個對我來說只是關於更新的回購授權，我認為是 750,000 股。您最近在這些級別上非常活躍。這是我們應該期望你繼續執行的事情嗎？

No. One, that's just our annual renewal to make sure that we have that capability on the shelf to use. Right now, as always, we kind of balance out capital needs as well as use of capital. I believe I feel our position right now is we want to make sure that we're focused on building capital, especially on the TCE. That's more, call it, from a -- of what if economic potential factor recession coming up, I'd rather be building capital than deploying it right now. So I wouldn't put a lot on that lever for us.

不，第一，這只是我們的年度更新，以確保我們有現成的功能可供使用。現在，一如既往，我們在某種程度上平衡了資本需求和資本使用。我相信我覺得我們現在的立場是我們要確保我們專注於建立資本，尤其是在 TCE 上。更重要的是，如果經濟潛在因素衰退即將到來，我寧願建立資本而不是現在部署它。所以我不會為我們在這個槓桿上投入太多。

There are no further questions leading at this time. (Operator Instructions) As we have no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Greg Dufour for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。 （操作員說明）由於我們沒有其他問題，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Greg Dufour 作閉幕詞。

Great. Thank you. I want to just thank, obviously, our analysts that are following our stock as well as all the other callers that are taking an interest into Camden National. Rest assured and hopefully, you would have the feeling that we're as always focused on long-term growth, long-term franchise value. And we appreciate your interest, and wish you a good day. Goodbye.

偉大的。謝謝。顯然，我只想感謝關注我們股票的分析師，以及所有其他對 Camden National 感興趣的來電者。請放心，希望您會覺得我們一如既往地專注於長期增長和長期特許經營價值。感謝您的關注，祝您有美好的一天。再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。