Camden National Corp (CAC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Camden National Corporation's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Drew, and I'll be your operator for today's call.

(Operator Instructions)

Please note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements, which involve significant risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to vary materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

Additionally, information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements are described in the company's earnings press release, the company's 2021 annual report on Form 10-K and other filings within the SEC.

The company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the forward-looking statements are made. Any references in today's presentation to non-GAAP financial measures are intended to provide meaningful insights and reconciled with GAAP in your press release.

Today's presenters are Greg Dufour, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Archer, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please note that this event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Greg Dufour. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Drew, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Camden National's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Earlier today, we announced third quarter net income of $14.3 million and year-to-date earnings of $46.1 million. This resulted in diluted earnings per share of $0.97 for the quarter and $3.12 for the year-to-date period.

Total revenue is at nearly $142 million through the first 9 months of 2022, were up 2% from the comparable period in '21 despite higher PPP loan income and record mortgage activity last year. We feel this demonstrates the flexibility and strong core operating capacity of Camden National.

Underlying these results is our commitment to position and reposition the organization in light of the macroeconomic environment, highlighted by rapidly rising interest rates, increased probability of recession and geopolitical risk. I'd like to take a few moments to further explain some of the actions we're taking.

We're repositioning our lending activities as we see the impact of the last remnants of PPP and the slowdown in the residential mortgage markets. This repositioning has actually been going on for several quarters and includes several points. First, a build-out of our small business lending efforts leveraging 2 major strategies.

First, we've hired 5 dedicated small business lenders in our markets and piloted a very successful training program to enhance our banking center managers' capacity to generate small business loans. This effort has been driven by a complete overhaul of our small business lending process utilizing our fintech partner, Abrigo, as well as our own business process analysis group. We now have the capability to go from application to same-day decision and close within 1 business day depending on collateral.

While early, we are very, very happy with our initial results using the new process. We also focused on streamlining our process for larger credit underwriting to build productivity and scale now and in the future. The results of these efforts allow for the expansion of capabilities in our existing markets while providing impact tools as we look to new markets.

There are several other areas where our prior investments and focus have positioned us well and will continue to do so. Our asset quality is extremely strong in this period of economic uncertainty and increased probability of recession. We have continued to fortify our allowance for credit losses as demonstrated by our coverage ACL to total loans of 95 basis points and ACL to nonperforming loans of 723%.

Our ability to be productive continues to benefit us as shown through our -- I'm sorry, 56.43% efficiency ratio. And our focus on deposits continues to be strong through both our retail network and our corporate treasury management areas, a deposit beta which includes core deposits and CDs was 14% through the first 9 months of the year.

These efforts are extremely critical at this point in time as we see aggressive loan and deposit pricing throughout our various products, end markets. Our priorities are to maintain asset quality within both our loan and investment portfolios to maintain our efficient cost structure and to strengthen our balance sheet until we see economic projections turn more favorable.

I would also highlight that we continue to focus on capital by being opportunistic in share repurchases as we repurchased just over 60,000 shares during the third quarter and provided a $0.40 dividend per common share. During the quarter, we also announced that Rebecca Hatfield, President and CEO of the Avesta Housing based in Portland, Maine, will be joining our board on December 31, 2022.

In addition to her current experience at Avesta, Rebecca has a strong background in banking, both in the lending and credit areas as well as previous experience in the technology industry.

I'd like to now turn the discussion over to our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Archer.

Thank you, Greg. Good afternoon, everyone. Earlier today, we reported net income for the first 9 months of 2022 of $46.1 million and diluted earnings per share of $3.12 compared to $52.5 million and diluted EPS of $3.49 for the same period a year ago. The drivers for the earnings compression between these periods can be directly traced back to the change in the global economic environment between periods, creating a dynamic and rapid shift in the operating environment for us, not unlike other banks. Between periods, we have seen interest rates rise considerably at an accelerated pace, yield curve (inaudible) and mounting pressures for a slowing economy and many believe will lead to a near-term recession.

Through the challenges, we've been able to maintain favorable performance metrics through the first 9 months of '22, including a return on average assets of 1.13%, a return on average tangible equity of 16.27% and maintain an efficiency ratio in the mid-50s.

To further highlight the strength of our core operations and results for the 9 months ended September 30, 2022, we reported an increase in non-GAAP earnings, which excludes income taxes, provision expense and SBA PPP loan income of $4.5 million or 8% over the same period last year.

In regards to our performance for the most recent quarter, we reported net income of $14.3 million, diluted EPS of $0.97 for the third quarter, each down 5% compared to the second quarter 2022. On a non-GAAP basis, adjusting for income taxes, provision expense and SBA PPP income, earnings decreased $328,000 or 2%.

Net interest income had a nice lift in the third quarter, increasing $1.3 million or 4% over the second quarter. Historically, we have seen an increase in our net interest margin in the third quarter each year due to seasonal inflows of deposits within our markets, which we again saw this year as average core deposits increased 4% quarter-over-quarter.

The seasonality in our deposits and our shift in earning asset nets as we continue to redeploy investment cash flows to fund loan growth, each contributed to NIM increasing 4 basis points between quarters to 2.88% for the third quarter.

Our NIM increase for the quarter was within our prior guidance. Our yield on interest-earning assets for the third quarter increased 29 basis points to 3.4% over the second quarter and represented an asset beta of 20% for the period. Funding costs over the same period increased 25 basis points to 0.54%. For the third quarter of '22, our total deposit cost was 0.45%, an increase of 24 basis points over the second quarter and represented a deposit beta of 17% for the quarter.

Year-to-date, our deposit beta, which includes noninterest checking and CDs was 14%. End-to-end loans grew 4% during the third quarter and 13% through the first 9 months of 2022. Our loan growth for the quarter was driven by residential mortgage and commercial real estate. Residential mortgage balances grew 7% during the quarter and CRE balances grew 2%.

As noted in our earnings release, at the end of the third quarter, our residential mortgage pipeline was approximately $110 million, and our commercial pipeline is approximately $90 million. For the third quarter of 2022, we provisioned $2.8 million of spend for credit losses, which was an increase of $419,000 over last quarter. At this point in the cycle, our credit portfolio remains in excellent condition with no immediate signs of trouble or deterioration.

Increase in the provision for the credit losses this quarter was due to a combination of solid loan growth and growing concerns of an economic slowdown. In the third quarter, we released the remaining reserves that were established for certain COVID-modified hospitality loans totaling $768,000.

At September 30, 2022, our allowance for credit losses on loans stood at 95 basis points of total loans, which was an increase of 3 basis points over the last quarter and covered over 7x our nonperforming loans. Our reserve levels continue to incorporate our long-term view of macro conditions as well as consider more local factors.

We continue to proactively monitor and analyze various pockets of our portfolio to identify any leading indicators of risks. And to date, we have not identified any trends of systemic risk or stress within our portfolio. Noninterest income for the third quarter of 2022 totaled $10 million and was down 11% compared to the previous quarter as we were not immune to the effect of higher interest rates, pressure in mortgage banking income and the down markets affecting wealth management fees and BOLI income. Residential mortgage production for the third quarter was down 20% compared to last quarter, and correspondingly, sold production was nearly down 20% as well.

Our noninterest income forecast for next quarter is a range of $10 million to $11 million like previous quarters. In the fourth quarter each year, we recognize our annual debit card incentive bonus and expect to do so again next quarter. Noninterest expense for the third quarter of 2022 totaled $27.1 million, which was 2% higher than the second quarter of 2022.

Our non-GAAP efficiency ratio for the third quarter of 2022 was 56.43% compared to 55.42% last quarter. We estimate our fourth quarter expenses will be near $27 million as we've seen in the past quarters. Tangible book value per share decreased $0.95 or 4% during the third quarter to $22.97 as September 30. Our tangible common equity ratio decreased 38 basis points in the quarter to 6.13% as September 30.

Tangible capital decreased again due to rising interest rates, further decreasing the value of our bond portfolio. Actions we took in the second quarter to move securities to HTM helped mitigate some of the impact of further rising rates on tangible capital.

The company's regulatory capital ratios continue to be well in excess of regulatory capital requirements as of September 30 and supporting the strength of our core capital position. During the third quarter, we repurchased 63,689 shares of our common stock, bringing our total share repurchase through the first 9 months of '22 to 225,245 at a weighted average cost of $45.46 per share.

This concludes our comments on our third quarter results. We'll now open the call up for questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Our first question today comes from Damon DelMonte from KBW.

I guess, first question, just regards to the provision this quarter, Mike, I thought I heard you say you guys released the remaining $700,000 or so of COVID-specific provisions or reserves that you have had before. Is that actually what you said?

That's correct, Damon. It's about $750,000, roughly.

Okay. So if you didn't have that to release this quarter, can we assume that the provision would have been closer to like around $3.5 million.

That is correct, yes.

Okay. And so is that how we should kind of think about the level of provisioning going forward? Or do you think it's going to be closer to this quarter's level?

I think on a go-forward, Damon, we're -- we feel pretty good right now where we are around 95 basis points from a total loans perspective. Certainly, loan growth will be a factor as we move forward in terms of what provision looks like on a go-forward basis. But we've been pretty proactive in terms of, call it, [presenting side] reserves for potentially a looming recession or slowdown and would hope that as we move forward, the level of reserve or provision needed starts to slow down with that as well.

I mean, again, there are so many factors, of course, that kind of go into play there even into that comment. But right now, we -- like I said, we feel good about our reserve levels and would think that potentially there'll be less of an impact on a go-forward basis should the macroeconomic continue to look as it does today or as we expect it to.

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then with respect to loan growth, 2 strong quarters -- actually, 3 strong quarters in a row -- 4 strong quarters in a row for you guys. Just kind of wondering how you're looking at the year closing out and kind of what the pipeline is indicating as you head into 2023.

Yes. I think -- I mean our pipelines at the end of the quarter were pretty strong. Residential hold, I think I mentioned it was about $110 million in the pipeline. We have been kind of on -- throughout the year portfolio, about 80% of our production in the residential. I think we'll likely see a similar number for the fourth quarter as well. So again, I would expect fairly strong residential growth there.

The commercial pipeline, too, is fairly strong, continues to remain pretty stable, above $90 million. So I do think as we enter into the fourth quarter here, we're -- rather close out the fourth quarter, we'll probably have loan growth in the, I'll call it, the 2% to 3% range.

Got it. Okay. Great. And then I guess just one last question. I think your guidance for noninterest income was $10 million to $11 million in the fourth quarter. Does that include the annual Visa incentive or not?

It does. A bit of the wild card, if you will, there. Damon, it's more on the mortgage banking side. I think to the extent that we did have some valuation adjustments run through this quarter. And that's kind of compressing our mortgage banking income for the third quarter, to the extent that we don't see something similar, we'll likely, I'd say, probably hopefully, on the upper end of that range. But I think the short answer is, yes, we do have debit card income in that number as well.

Our next question today comes from Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc.

I wanted to follow the composition of loan growth. It feels like it will continue to be weighted towards residential loans. And maybe just thinking about the overall asset-sensitive profile of the bank balance sheet, is there a broader strategy? Many are undergoing this -- of bringing the balance sheet into a more interest rate neutral position. How far away from you are that -- are you from that? And is that part of the plan here?

Well, this is Greg. I'll take that and Mike can add in. But we'll see that transition. One, it's going to be natural because the residential mortgage market, like everyone is seeing, is slowing down. And that's why we're focusing on the commercial side and the small business side. As I mentioned in my comments, we've been investing in that area and building that up. And so we think that will help offset, call it, further decline in residential.

Maybe just following that thread a little bit. How far away do you think we are from seeing meaningful impact to the balance sheet from SBA lending?

Well, again, we generate, call it, we use the term more small business, so that could be SBA. We leveraged the Finance Authority of Maine quite a bit or just general small business alone. So I don't want to say that's all going to be SBA type of lending. But really saying when that's going to cross, I would just say, it's -- we're positioning when we say given our growth expectations that's built in there that as we expect residential to drop, we expect those other areas to pick up.

That's what we've been seeing. You can almost see it with our existing pipelines that we shared this quarter, $110 million versus $90 million, shows how that's building up on us. As well as complemented by -- the other point I'd bring out is the larger commercial is still fairly solid business for us growth wise. And so that's an important aspect to -- of our strategy going forward.

Okay. And then just thinking about the outlook for deposit growth, curious of your thoughts there, the composition of it. And then in the broader scheme of funding the balance sheet, should we expect kind of a similar pace of securities runoff in the quarters ahead to help fund some of the loan growth?

Yes. Maybe the last part of that, we do expect continued cash flows from the investment portfolio, I think it's in the neighborhood, we'll call it, $12 million a month is what we're seeing. And we'll continue to redeploy that and certainly the earning -- higher earning assets, that's kind of what we've been doing and continue to be the plan.

On the deposit side, we're always focused on generating core deposits primarily checking accounts. We'll continue to -- we're in the middle right now. There are some promotional products out there, certainly call it a little bit more pricey than where we had been. But again, we are also managing from a perspective of overnight funding and what's costing -- advantageous there for us, Matt.

So -- yes, I think it will be a combination as we move forward of both the noninterest checking, the money market certainly. And I think the other piece of the highlight in there is we continue to manage to what we've given from a guidance perspective to an overall funding beta of 25%. And through the first 9 months, we've stuck to that. We've hit that and we continue to manage towards those and move forward.

Okay. Maybe just being a little bit more specific, thinking about demand deposits. The composition of your deposit book is best improved in the wake of the pandemic, demand deposits up to 27% of total. Do you expect to see much attrition or erosion in that line? Or -- are you seeing anybody kind of make the transition from demand into other categories? And what's been the recent drivers of growth?

Yes. So Matt, I think it is. The customers are obviously interest rate sensitive, and there is that risk of moving out of demand because the rates are more favorable and you're getting to a point where it's not that people are trying to wrestle with 50 basis points versus 75, it's now getting into a meaningful number. I think to combat that and to keep that within, call it, our deposit beta guidelines that we want is alternate products. First step is keep the deposits in-house. We have, as Mike mentioned, some of the products that we can look at from laddering things for customers to get them through it. We're maintaining that still in the core deposit base.

However, with all of that said, not only from the retail network, but from the commercial network is our investment in corporate treasury management that we've made that will keep those, call it, business deposits, commercial deposits a lot stickier as well. So we have several levers, if you will, to help adjust to customer demand.

Okay. And then just maybe tying this all together, any thoughts on the near-term margin outlook and whether or not the pace of NIM expansion we saw this quarter is something we should expect at least in the relative near term?

Yes. I think -- so I mentioned this in my comments, Matt. Generally, Q3 is a stronger quarter on the NIM side, just because there's some seasonal flows that we have in our market. We do anticipate in the fourth quarter, we'll potentially see some of those seasonal outflows, which is normal for us.

That said, we believe we're focused on margin, we're focused on deposit betas, we are aiming to call it be flat on a quarter -- and for the fourth quarter, from a margin perspective, understanding that there's, call it, some level of downside risk there just in terms of seasonal outflows. But again, we think we can manage that, and we'll be right around flat on a linked quarter basis.

Okay. Last one for me. Just thinking about capital adequacy and, obviously, your regulatory capital ratios are very healthy. Thinking about the TCE to TA. Any concerns there? Or has that popped up in conversations with regulators at all?

Well, we're obviously monitoring it, Matt. We feel good about it. When you take out the impact from the AFS portfolio, it's -- it jumps up [20%]. So we have good core capital. I'm not sure if I really want to comment on our conversations with regulators because we just finished our exam. But suffice it to say, we feel real good about our capital even though we're monitoring it.

As we have no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Greg Dufour any closing remarks.

Great. Well, thank you, Drew. And I just want to thank everybody who's taken the time out of the day to listen in to the call and for your interest into Camden National. Have a good afternoon. Bye now.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.